Sustainability Solutions:

Fixing the Unbalanced Agenda

Steven E. Koonin
Under Secretary for Science
Department of Energy
January 2010
Theses

 Global development and population growth

will place unprecedented stress on resources
(Sustainability)
 These same factors will have a profound
influence on US domestic and global
circumstances (sustainability)

Navigating these changes will be the

major task of the next decades

14 January 2010 2
Outline

 Global drivers

 Energy Sustainability

 Food and Water Sustainability

 sustainability

14 January 2010 3
Global drivers
Energy consumption has increased
with development
Energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004)
400
US
350

300
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)

Australia
250
Russia France
Japan
200 S. Korea UK

150 Malaysia Ireland

Brazil
100 Greece
China
50 Mexico
India
0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)

Source: UN and DOE EIA, Russia data 1992-2004 only

14 January 2010 5
Calories increase with GDP

14 January 2010 6
As does meat consumption

14 January 2010 7
 Calories increase with time

World
Developing
Calories

countries
Industrialized
countries
Transition
countries

Year
Source: FAO report, “Diet, Nutrition and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases ,” 2003
14 January 2010 8
Population growth a second driver

World population to 2050 - UN data

Af rica Oceania
Asia Europe
Latin America and Caribbean Northern America

10,000

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
millions

5,000
4,000

3,000
2,000

1,000
-
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

14 January 2010 9
US= 4% people and ~20% consumption

Percentage of US to World

Impacts both
global resources
and US position

Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

14 January 2010 10
Global sustainability math

 US per capita consumption

= 0.2 Current / 0.3 B people
= 0.7 CPB (Current per Billion)
 If today’s 7B consumed at the US per capita
rate, 0.7 CBP * 7 B ~ 5x current resource use
 2050’s 9 billion would consume ~ 6x Current
 Using the EU as a benchmark reduces these
numbers by about 30%

14 January 2010 11
Thomas Malthus (1789)

“The perpetual tendency of the race of man to

increase beyond the means of subsistence is
one of the general laws of animated nature,
which we can have no reason to expect to
change.”

Is it different this time?

14 November 2009 12

Possible resolutions

 Decouple development and consumption

(conservation, enabled by policy and
technology)
 Find new or substitute resources
 Reset expectations and restrain development
 Slower, but smarter, development
 Greater wisdom in infrastructure rebuild, behavior
Non-exclusive alternatives.
Outcome depends upon economy, policy, technology

14 January 2010 13
Energy Sustainability
 Increase in global energy use
Non-OECD countries account for 82% of the
44% increase in global energy use to 2030
678
637
596
552
Quadrillion Btu

508 59%
472

49%

51% 41%

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case

14 January 2010 15
 California energy per capita
is unchanged since ~1990

$thousand/person
Million Btu/person

Energy/person
GDP/person

Source: EIA State Energy Data Report, 2007

14 January 2010 16
 Fossil fuels dominate the
world’s energy supply today
History Projections Share of world total

Liquids (including biofuels) 32%

Quadrillion Btu

36% 28%
Coal
23%
27%
Natural gas

23% Renewables (excluding biofuels)

11%
8%
6%
Nuclear
6%

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case

14 January 2010 17
 Substantial global fossil
reserves
6,000
Yet to Find

5,000
Reserves & Resources (bnboe)

4,000 Unconventional
Unconventional
3,000
R/P Ratio
Proven 164 yrs.
Yet to Find
2,000 Yet to Find

1,000
Proven R/P Ratio R/P Ratio
Proven
41 yrs. 67 yrs.

0
Oil Gas Coal

Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates

14 January 2010 18
Nuclear power increase
China and India account for 48% of the
world increase in nuclear power
North America OECD Europe
180 OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
China India
Rest of World

132 132
127
121 121
120 115
Gigawatts

88

74 71
67

60 49 54
42

22 20 23
15
7 10 9
3
0
2006 2015 2030

14 November 2009 19
Wind and water power
Hydropower supplies 54% of the world
4.0
increase in renewable generation; wind 3.8
provides 33%
2.9
3.0 2.7
Other Renewables
Trillion Kilowatthours

2.2

2.0 Wind 1.8

1.6

1.0
Hydroelectric

0.0
2006 2015 2030 2006 2015 2030
OECD Non-OECD
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
14 November 2009 20
Global energy challenges result
from significant imbalances

 Energy poverty
 Imbalance in energy access
 Energy security
 Imbalance in geographic distribution of resources
 Greenhouse gas emissions
 Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle

14 January 2010 21
Distribution of crude reserves
Oil is a global market, OPEC is 40% of global supply,
and reserves are geographically concentrated
Middle East 746

North America 210

Africa 117

Central & South America 123

Eurasia 99

Asia 34

Europe 14

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Billion Barrels
Source: Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil & Gas Journal,
Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 22, 2008), pp. 20-23.
14 January 2010 22
 GHG emissions continue to grow
Absent new policies, global energy-related CO2
emissions grow 39% by 2030 in EIA’s reference case
40
38
35
Billion metric tons

33
31
29 64%

53%

47% 36%

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case

14 January 2010 23
US anthropogenic GHG emissions are
about energy
Over 80% of US greenhouse gas
emissions in 2007 were energy-related

Source: EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007

14 January 2010 24
Water and Food
Sustainability
Water Sustainability

 Demand for water will increase

 Agriculture, energy
 Household use in developed countries 6X
developing countries
 Exacerbated by climate change
 There is plenty of water
 Quality, timing, geographical dislocation concern
 Depletion of stored water (aquifers)
 Water is not a global commodity like oil/gas
 No global market, long distance transport

14 January 2010 26
Global water resources

14 January 2010 27
What is water used for?

14 January 2010 28
Runoff change to 2050

14 January 2010 29
Food Sustainability

 Demand rising with development

 Increase in “quality” with development
(crops to animal protein)
 Can we grow enough food?
Nonarable Other crops
6.9%
34.4%
Forest &
Savannah
30.5%

Cereal
4.6% Pasture & Range
23.7%
14 January 2010 30
Animal protein production rising
World Animal Protein Production, 1961-2007

120

100
Pork

80

Poultry
Million Tons

Beef
60

40
Farmed Fish

20
Sheep and Goats

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: FAO

14 November 2009 31

Economics explains some choices
Sources of $200B global annual agriculture revenue

$104B annual revenue

14 January 2010 32
Food yield changes to 2050

14 January 2010 33
 Energy/water/food nexus is
sensitive to climate
 Water for power production Globally, more water is used for
food and electricity production than
 Power to move water is used directly
 Food and biofuels/biomass
 Energy, water for agriculture
 Agriculture and land use
(deforestation)
 Climate change and
agriculture/water

Source: Peter Gleick, World’s Water 2002-2003

14 January 2010 34
Water-food interactions

14 January 2010 35
Global resource Sustainability
 There is (or can be) enough to meet demand
 Economic, policy, social factors intertwine
 Technology can help, but not sufficient
 “Graceful” supply curves are a help
 Conservation, new resources, substitution
 Best policies are not always obvious
 Systems effects, diverse interests
 Informed and educated populace/decision makers
essential
 Trends are slow to develop, long to fix

14 January 2010 36
Energy change is slow without deliberate
acceleration
US energy supply since 1850
100%
90%
80%
Renewables
70% Nuclear
60% Gas
50% Oil
40% Hydro
Coal
30%
Wood
20%
10%
0%
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
Source: EIA

14 January 2010 37
 IT moves much faster than energy
100%
90%
80%
Renewables
70%
Nuclear
60% Gas
50% Oil
Hydro
40%
Coal
30% Wood
20%
10%
0%
Sales of Personal Audio/Video since 2000
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000

14 January 2010 38
Because energy innovation is different

 Energy Frontier Research Centers Underlying science

 Find solutions to fundamental scientific roadblocks to clean
energy and energy security
 Innovation HUBS Academia/government/industry partnerships
 Create sustained, tightly focused research centers with
contributors from academia and industry
 REgaining our ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge
(ReENERGYSE) proposal Workforce training
 Energy scientists (technology and policy)
 Clean energy workers
 ARPA-E High risk, transformational research
 Develop and deploy breakthrough energy technologies
 Coordination among many Federal/State agencies

14 January 2010 39
High-leverage technologies that can
contribute to useful change
Average Indiana corn yield
 Biology/biotech dramatically increased
 Esp plant, microbial
 Materials science
 Simulation, synthesis,
characterization
 Data & understanding
 Physical, societal
 Diagnosis, management,
prediction

14 January 2010 40
sustainability
The world’s GDP is unbalanced
Contributions from 4 selected areas

US
EU
China
India

Source: CIA World Factbook, population 2009 est, 2008 US dollars

14 January 2010 42
Compared to the US/EU
the rest of the world is…
More
numerous US
EU
Younger Developing China
faster India

Hungrier

Source: CIA World Factbook, population 2009 est, 2008 US dollars

14 January 2010 43
Nature abhors imbalance
“It’s the Second Law of Thermodynamics:
Sooner or later everything turns to ****”
Woody Allen, Husbands and Wives (1992)

 Relaxation can be slowed, but greater imbalance implies

stronger driving force and more rapid/disruptive changes
 sustainability is about managing imbalances and their
relaxation
14 January 2010 44
Global equilibration

 In a global world with free flow of people,

goods, resources, and capital
 US position of privilege difficult to sustain
 Shifts in US economic, cultural, geopolitical heft
 How will the US respond?
 Fortress America?
 Accept a position proportional to population or
GDP?
 Capitalize on differential advantages to realize
sustainability
14 November 2009 45
Trends in US manufacturing

14 January 2010 46
US manufacturing jobs

14 November 2009 47

 Can we better link US innovation with
economic sustainability?
The situation is
similar in other
areas:
• Fuel-efficient
automobiles
• Batteries
• Electricity
Transmission
• Power Electronics
• Nuclear Power

Worldwide shipments of Solar Photovoltaics (MW)

14 January 2010 48
The US in a global context
 Some US differential advantages
 Attraction of the American “idea”
 Rule of law
 Vibrant innovation system
 Free flow of capital
 Protection of IP
 Higher Education
 Infrastructure in US is built, developing world is building
 DW is newer, more efficient
 US infrastructure needs to be rebuilt
 Skills and capabilities better represented abroad
 Implications for immigration, labor, education policy
 US must work to regain favor as a manufacturing venue
14 January 2010 49
Recap
 Global development and population growth will place
unprecedented stress on resources (Sustainability)
 These same factors will have a profound influence on
US domestic and global circumstances (sustainability)
 Complex issues without easy or obvious solutions
 Must begin frank conversation, be aware of where we’re headed,
and the understand the implications of the decisions we make

Navigating these changes will be the

major task of the next decades

14 January 2010 50
Questions?/Comments?