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INTRODUCTION
1.
2.
Entity/phenomenon/concept A leads-to/causes/
influences/etc./Entity/phenomenon/concept B or
. B is caused/effected/influenced/etc./ by A.
These are causal assertions, which are taken to indicate
that the concerned subjects: 1) use concepts (A,B) to refer to
some phenomena or concepts in their domains, and 2) think
(believe, assume, know, argue, etc.) that there are certain
relationships between these concepts.
We generally use causal maps for dealing with such
cause-effect relations embedded in deciders' thinking.
These maps are represented as directed graphs where the
basic elements are simple. The concepts an individual (a
decision-maker or a group of decision-makers) uses are
represented as points and the causal links between these
concepts are represented as arrows between these points.
This representation gives a graph of points and arrows
called a causal map. The strategic alternatives, all of the
various causes and effects, goals, and the ultimate utility1
of the decision maker can all be considfered as concept
variables and represented as points in the CM. Causal
relationships can take on different values based on the
most basic values (positive),
(negative), and 0
(neutral). Logical combinations of these three basic values
give the following: neutral or negative ( ), neutral or
positive (), nonneutral (), ambivalent (a), and,
finally, positive, neutral, or negative (i.e.,universal)
(?) [1], [7], [24].
The real power of this approach appears when a CM is
pictured in graph form. It is then relatively easy to see how
concepts and causal relationships are related to each other
and to see the overall causal relationships of one concept
with another, particularly if these concepts are the concepts
of several agents.
For instance, the CM of Fig. 1, taken from [21], explains
how the Japanese made the decision to attack Pearl Harbor.
Indeed, this CM states that remaining idle promotes the
attrition of Japanese strength while enhancing the defensive
1. Utility means the unspecified best interests of a decision maker.
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a b
0
c
0
0
0
0
bB
B0
B
c @0
d 0
d
1
0C
C
C:
0A
0
CHAIB-DRAA: CAUSAL MAPS: THEORY, IMPLEMENTATION, AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS IN MULTIAGENT ENVIRONMENTS
ON
1
0\ :
For any x; y 2 C,
a 0jy y;
b ajy a;
c yjy y;
d j ?;
e j do [;
e do [
f x y y x:
Let us explain what these operations are intended for.
Multiplication is used to calculate indirect effects. For
instance, from vi ! vj !vk , there is an indirect effect
and
V n : V V n 1 :
NO. 6,
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f xjy yjx:
c a y a;
d
;
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2.2
V ik : :Vik
V u V 0 ik : Vik ^ Vik0 ;
V > ik : Vki :
CHAIB-DRAA: CAUSAL MAPS: THEORY, IMPLEMENTATION, AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS IN MULTIAGENT ENVIRONMENTS
:
1
1
0 :
1 1
1 0
;
0 1
1 1
0 0
;
1 0 0
:
1 1
1 0 1
:
1 1 0
1
The laws of sum (j) are reviewed below (see (10)). Note
that do means distributes over. Thus, law (3) j do ,
means that j distributes over , as, for instance,
: f0 ; g;
j f gjf ; 0 g f t ; t 0 g
f ; g f g :
g;
g;
? : f ; ; 0 g;
a : f g u f g f g:
Now, we can formally define the cognitive maps as
follows:
Definition 1. A cognitive map CM : C; A is a directed
graph that represents an individual's (i.e., an agent, a group of
agents, or an organization) assertions about its beliefs with
respect to its environment. The components of this graph are a
set of points C(the vertices) and a set of arrows A (the edges)
between these points. The arrows are labeled by elements of the
set C : fa; ; ; 0; ; ; ; ?g. A point represents a concept
(also called concept variable in the sequel), which may be a
goal or an action option of any agent. It can also represent the
utility of any agent or the utility of a group or an organization,
or any other concept appropriate to multiagent reasoning. An
arrow represents a causal relation between concepts, that is, it
represents a causal assertion of how one concept variable
affects another. The concept variable at the origin of an arrow
is called a cause variable and that at the end point of the
arrow is called the effect variable. A path from concept
variable v1 to concept variable vn is a sequence of points
v1 ; v2 ; . . . ; vn , together with the nonzero arrows (i.e., arrows
labeled by a relation different from 0 v1 v2 ; v2 v3 ; . . . ; vn 1 vn . A
path is trivial if it consists of a single point. The valency
matrix V of a cognitive map M is a square matrix of size n,
where n is the number of concepts in M. The entry Vij is the
label of the arrow from vi to vj in M. If there is no such arrow,
then Vij 0. Finally, sum (j) and multiplication () (as
defined below) are used to calculate, respectively, indirect
effects and direct effects between concepts.
g.
1 ajy a 8y 2 C;
2 xjy fx t y g 8x; y 2 Cp ;
3 j do 00 ;00 ;
4 xjy yjx:
10
11
CM-RELVIEW: AN IMPLEMENTATION
RELATION MODEL OF CMs
OF THE
.
.
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CHAIB-DRAA: CAUSAL MAPS: THEORY, IMPLEMENTATION, AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS IN MULTIAGENT ENVIRONMENTS
4.
IN
MULTIAGENT
4.1
4.2
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Fig. 3. CMA reflects the adminstrators' causal map and CMSA reflects the administrators' perceptions of the staff causal map.
CHAIB-DRAA: CAUSAL MAPS: THEORY, IMPLEMENTATION, AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS IN MULTIAGENT ENVIRONMENTS
Fig. 4. CMS reflects the staff's causal map and CMAS reflects staff's perception of adminstrators' causal maps.
10
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Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.
CHAIB-DRAA: CAUSAL MAPS: THEORY, IMPLEMENTATION, AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS IN MULTIAGENT ENVIRONMENTS
11
Fig. 7.
12
4.3
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13
2.
14
TABLE 2
Table 2
3.
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4.4
CHAIB-DRAA: CAUSAL MAPS: THEORY, IMPLEMENTATION, AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS IN MULTIAGENT ENVIRONMENTS
15
CONCLUSION
AND
FUTURE WORK
16
2.
3.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work has been supported by the Natural Sciences and
Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) (under
grant #OGP0121634) and in part by the Social Sciences and
Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHR) (under
grant #410-2000-1178). The author would like to thank the
anonymous referees for their valuable comments and
suggestions that helped improve both the presentation
and quality of this paper. He would also like to thank
Professor J. Desharnais for his comments on the first version
of the paper.
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