CLIMATE INTERVENTION

Marcia McNu) (Chair), Waleed Abdala3,

Sco) Doney, David Titley
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

CLIMATE IS CHANGING
Observed Change in Surface Temperature

The signs of changing

climate are all around us:

IPCC, 2013

Greenhouse gases are

increasing
Sea level is rising
Ice sheets and glaciers are
mel3ng
Global temperatures are
increasing

Climate change impacts

people, ecosystems, and
the economy
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

POSSIBLE CLIMATE RESPONSE OPTIONS

Reducing
greenhouse gas
emissions
Mi3ga3on

Adap3ng to the
impacts of
climate change
Adapta3on

Climate
Interven3on???

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

COMMITTEE ON GEOENGINEERING CLIMATE:

TECHNICAL EVALUATION AND DISCUSSION OF IMPACTS

DOE, NASA, NOAA, U.S. intelligence community, and Na3onal

Academy of Sciences supported this study

Technical assessment of two classes of climate interven3on
technologies
Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Reducing sunlight absorbed by Earth in order to cool planets surface

What is currently known

Science - risks and consequences

Viability for implementa3on

Iden3fy future research needed

Comment generally on poten3al societal, legal, and ethical
considera3ons
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

COMMITTEE ON GEOENGINEERING CLIMATE:

TECHNICAL EVALUATION AND DISCUSSION OF IMPACTS
Marcia K. McNu3 (Chair)
Science / AAAS
Waleed Abdala;
University of Colorado, Boulder
Ken Caldeira
Carnegie Ins3tu3on for Science
Sco3 C. Doney
Woods Hole Oceanographic Ins3tu3on
Paul G. Falkowski
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Steve Fe3er
University of Maryland
James R. Fleming
Colby College
Steven P. Hamburg
Environmental Defense Fund

M. Granger Morgan
Carnegie Mellon University
Joyce E. Penner
University of Michigan
Raymond T. Pierrehumbert
University of Chicago
Philip J. Rasch
Pacic Northwest Na3onal Laboratory
Lynn M. Russell
Scripps Ins3tu3on of Oceanography
John T. Snow
University of Oklahoma
David W. Titley
Penn State University
Jennifer Wilcox
Stanford University

The Commi)ee held four mee3ngs and interacted with dozens of scien3sts
Reports were reviewed by 16 outside experts

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE
FOR MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Recommenda;on 1:

Eorts to address climate change should con;nue to
focus most heavily on
mi;ga;ng greenhouse gas emissions
in combina;on with adap;ng to the impacts of
climate change
because these approaches
do not present poorly dened and poorly quan;ed
risks and
are at a greater state of technological readiness
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL AND

RELIABLE SEQUESTRATION
Enhancing natural carbon sinks

Changes in land use management

Reforesta3on / aoresta3on
Agricultural prac3ces

Accelerated weathering

Chemical reac3ons to form carbonate

or silicate minerals

Ocean iron fer3liza3on

Adding iron to the ocean to boost the

growth of phytoplankton

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES
AND CLIMATE

CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL AND

RELIABLE SEQUESTRATION
Other technologies

Direct Air Capture and

Sequestra3on (DACS)

Chemical scrubbing processes

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture

and Sequestra3on (BECCS)
Use plants (biomass) to produce
energy
Capture carbon dioxide from
power plant and sequester
underground

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL READY FOR

INCREASED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
Recommenda;on 2:

The Commi3ee recommends research and development
investment to
improve methods of carbon dioxide removal and disposal
at scales that ma3er
in par;cular to
minimize energy and materials consump;on
iden;fy and quan;fy risks
lower costs, and
develop reliable sequestra;on and monitoring
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

ALBEDO MODIFICATION
Albedo modica3on could
reduce amount of sunlight
absorbed by Earth in order to
cool planets surface quickly
The report considered two
strategies:
Stratospheric aerosols
Marine cloud brightening
Elsewhere referred to as
Solar Radia9on Management
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

10

Albedo is the propor9on of incoming

sunlight that is reected back to space

ALBEDO MODIFICATION POSES

SIGNIFICANT RISKS
Environmental risks both known and poorly known
Decreases in stratospheric ozone
Changes in the amount and pa)erns of precipita3on
No reduc3on of root cause of climate change (greenhouse gases)
Poorly understood regional variability
Poten3al risk of millennial dependence

Signicant poten3al for unan3cipated, unmanageable, and

regre)able consequences

Including poli3cal, social, legal, economic, and ethical dimensions

Recommenda;on 3: Albedo modica;on at scales sucient

to alter climate should not be deployed at this ;me
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

11

ALBEDO MODIFICATION RESEARCH

Research needed to determine if albedo modica3on could be viable
climate response
If there were a climate emergency
Could it be key part of a porjolio of responses?

Be)er understanding of consequences needed if there were an ac3on by a

unilateral / uncoordinated actor

Recommenda;on 4:

The Commi3ee recommends an albedo modica;on

research program be developed and implemented that
emphasizes mul;ple benet research that furthers
basic understanding of the climate system
and its human dimensions
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

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ALBEDO MODIFICATION RESEARCH

Current observa3onal
capabili3es lack sucient
capacity to detect and
monitor environmental
eects of albedo
modica3on deployment

Recommenda;on 5: The Commi3ee recommends that the

United States improve its capacity to detect and measure
changes in radia;ve forcing and associated changes in climate
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

13

GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
More than just science involved in decisions on research
and deployment
Governance
Ethical & legal considera3ons

Albedo modica3on research is

not specically addressed by any

federal laws or regula3ons
Need for transparent and
inclusive conversa3ons
Goal of governance should be to
maximize benets of research
while minimizing risks
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

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GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Recommenda;on 6:

The Commi3ee recommends the ini;a;on of a serious
delibera;ve process to examine:

(a) what types of research governance, beyond those that
already exist, may be needed for albedo modica;on
research, and
(b) the types of research that would require such governance,
poten;ally based on the magnitude of their expected
impact on radia;ve forcing, their poten;al for detrimental
direct and indirect eects, and other considera;ons
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

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CONCLUSIONS
The challenges of climate change require a porjolio of
ac3ons with varying degrees of risk and ecacy
There is no subs3tute for mi3ga3on and adapta3on
Carbon dioxide removal strategies oer poten3al to
decrease carbon dioxide concentra3ons in the atmosphere
Albedo modica3on strategies currently limited by
unfamiliar and unquan3able risks and governance issues
Any interven3on in Earths climate should be informed by
a far more substan3ve body of scien3c research than is
available at present
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Sponsors
Commi)ee
Reviewers
NRC Sta
Numerous colleagues
consulted during study

Please visit americasclimatechoices.org to nd:

Complete reports available for free PDF download

Report in Brief (4-page lay summary)
Press release
Informa3on about upcoming events, such as webinar Feb 26
Brieng slides and archived public release webcast

Join the conversa3on : #ClimateInterven3on

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

Carbon Dioxide Removal proposals

Albedo Modica;on proposals

address the cause of human-induced climate

change (high atmospheric GHG
concentra;ons).
do not introduce novel global risks.

do not address cause of human-induced

climate change (high atmospheric GHG
concentra3ons).
introduce novel global risks.

are currently expensive (or comparable to

the cost of emission reduc;on).

are inexpensive to deploy (rela3ve to cost of

emissions reduc3on).

may produce only modest climate eects

within decades.

can produce substan3al climate eects within

years.

raise fewer and less dicult issues with

respect to global governance.

raise dicult issues with respect to global

governance.

will be judged largely on ques;ons related to will be judged largely on ques3ons related to
cost.
risk.
may be implemented incrementally with
limited eects as society becomes more
serious about reducing GHG concentra;ons or
slowing their growth.

could be implemented suddenly, with large-

scale impacts before enough research is
available to understand their risks rela3ve to
inac3on.

require coopera;on by major carbon

emi3ers to have a signicant eect.

could be done unilaterally.

for likely future emissions scenarios, abrupt

for likely future emissions scenarios, abrupt termina3on would produce signicant
termina;on would have limited consequences consequences

americasclimatechoices.org

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