Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chandan Sapkota
Asian Development Bank
Nepal Resident Mission
Presentation Outline
Macroeconomic Update
Mid-year Overview
Real Sector
Fiscal Sector
Monetary Sector
External Sector
Issue Focus: Quarterly National Accounts of Nepal
Macroeconomic Update
Real Sector
Contributions to GDP growth (percentage points)
6
4.6
4.3
3.8
3.5
3
2
1
0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
Agriculture
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Other services
FY2013R
FY2014P
Manufacturing
Other industry
Real estate renting and business activities
GDP growth (basic prices)
300
254
250
183
200
150
120
90
100
50
84
65
39
38
0
FY2010
FY2011
Energy
Tourism
Total
FY2012
FY2013
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Service
Mineral
Financial intermediation
Manufacturing
Construction
Real estate, renting and business
Mining and quarrying
Community, social and personal
Agriculture and forestry
Electricty, gas and water
Fishing
Health and social work
Public administration and defence
Education
Hotels and restaurants
Transport, storage and
Wholesale and retail trade
1.8
1.9
2.9
3.0
3.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.5
5.7
6.0
7.1
7.5
8.8
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20.1
14.6
9.7
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
Service
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Total FDI commitment
FY2014
Energy
Tourism
Mineral
Actual FDI inflows
10
6
5.2
5
5.0
4.6
4.0
4
3.5
3
0
FY2012
FY2013R
FY2014P
FY2015f_s1
FY2015f_s2
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Fiscal Sector
Mid-year budget utilization (% of total allocation)
180
156.1
161.9
40
140
35
130.1
123.5
30
36.8
30.9
30.2
26.2
25
100
23.2
18.5
20
20
-20
13.5 12.6
15
60
11.5
Total
Recurrent
Mid-year FY2014
14.7
14.5
Capital
10
5
Financing
0
Total
Mid-year FY2015
23.7
5.4
Mid-year FY2014
5
4.3
4.0
3.3
3
2
1
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
FY2012
FY2013R
FY2014P
FY2015BE
FY2015f
Capital
Financing
Mid-year FY2015
Customs
FY2011
Recurrent
VAT
Excise
Income
Total tax
Revenue
FY2015 target
Total
revenue
Monetary Sector 1
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Y-o-Y inflation
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2013
FY2014
12
10
9.6
9.9
9.6
9.1
8.3
8.0
7.0
6
4
2
0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015f_s1
FY2015f_s2
Nepal-CPI
FY2015
Monetary Sector 2
40
30
30
25
20
20
20
15
10
10
10
5
0
-10
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2015
Commerical banks
Development banks
Finance companies
Total deposit
0
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2015
Commerical banks
Development banks
Finance companies
Total credit
-5
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Mid-year Mid-year
FY2014 FY2015
-10
-15
Construction
Real estate
Monetary Sector 3
Interbank and 91-day Treasury bill rate (%)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Interbank rate
FY2014
14
1200
12
1000
10
800
600
400
200
0
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
FY2015 Deposit
Jan
Jun
FY2015 Lending
Jul
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2015
External Sector
600
500
400
5
4
300
200
100
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
1-Jan-11
11-Mar-11
19-May-11
27-Jul-11
4-Oct-11
12-Dec-11
19-Feb-12
28-Apr-12
6-Jul-12
13-Sep-12
21-Nov-12
29-Jan-13
8-Apr-13
16-Jun-13
23-Aug-13
31-Oct-13
8-Jan-14
18-Mar-14
26-May-14
3-Aug-14
11-Oct-14
19-Dec-14
6
Remittance inflows ($ billion)
8
6
2
0
Export (fob)
-2
Services
balance
Income
balance
Transfer
balance
Current
account
balance
Capital
account
balance
Financial
account
balance
Balance of
payments
Oil import
Workers'
remittances
-4
-6
-8
FY2014
Mid-year FY2014
Mid-year FY2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
FY2011
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
FY2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
FY2013
-10
-15
-20
Seasonally adjusted
Seasonally unadjusted
Q4
Q1
Q2
FY2014
THANK YOU!
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