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Disclaimer: This material was produced by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) solely for

the use of the parties to the Articles of Agreement is respect of AMRO (AMRO Articles of Agreement). No part
of this material may be reproduced in any form for publication or disclosed to third parties unless so permitted
under the AMRO Articles of Agreement. As some data in this document are provided by national authorities in
strict confidence, quotation or replication to the public is not appropriate.

ERPD (Economic Review and Policy Dialogue) Matrix


Report to the ASEAN+3 Deputies

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)


December 2014

* This document contains information with respect to the Arrangement Request for the CMIM Precautionary Line (CMIM-PL)
pursuant to Article 7 of the CMIM Agreement. The data in this document have been confirmed by respective ASEAN+3 Authorities
as of November 27, 2014.

Table of Contents

The First Set of Indicators of ERPD Matri


3
1. ........................................................................Brunei Darussalam
.................................................................................................4
2. .....................................................................................Cambodia
.................................................................................................12
3. ............................................................................................China
................................................................................................18
4. ..........................................................................Hong Kong, China
...............................................................................................24
5. ......................................................................................Indonesia
................................................................................................30
6. ............................................................................................Japan
.................................................................................................35
7. ............................................................................................Korea
................................................................................................ 41
8. ........................................................................................Lao PDR
................................................................................................47
9. ........................................................................................Malaysia
................................................................................................53
10. .....................................................................................Myanmar
................................................................................................ 59
11. ............................................................................The Philippines
................................................................................................66
12. ....................................................................................Singapore
................................................................................................72

13. ......................................................................................Thailand
................................................................................................ 78
14. .......................................................................................Vietnam
................................................................................................ 84

The First Set of Indicators of ERPD (Economic Review and Policy


Dialogue) Matrix
(Endorsed at the AFCDM+3 meeting in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, April 2014)

1. External Position and Market Access


(1) Gross External Debt ( % of GDP)
(2) Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign Reserves)
(3) Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
(4) Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)
2. Fiscal Policy
(1) Revenue (% of GDP)
(2) Expenditure (% of GDP)
(3) Primary Balance (% of GDP)
(4) Overall Balance (% of GDP)
(5) Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
3. Monetary Policy
(1) Monetary Policy Framework and Recent Policy Responses
(2) Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
(3) Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
(4) Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
(5) Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
4. Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision
(1) Regulatory Capital to Risk-weighted Assets (%)
(2) Non-Performing Loans (NPL) to Capital (%)
(3) Non-Performing Loans (NPL) to Total Gross Loans (%)
(4) Return on Assets (ROA, %)
(5) Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
(6) Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Banking System Loans (%, optional)
5. Data Adequacy
(1) Primary Evaluation Based on ERPD Matrices
(2) Secondary Evaluation Based on AMRO Economic Reports

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q1
4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Account Balance (% of


GDP) 3/

47.8

47.9

35.5

40.1

39.4

37.6

23.4

N/A

N/A

Foreign Reserves (in months of


imports) 4/

3.8

3.5

6.8

7.2

8.0

11.1

11.2

N/A

N/A

Indicators

200
7

200
8

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/

0.0

Gross Short-term External Debt


(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

3Q1
4

4Q1
4

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

2014

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators
Revenue (% of GDP) 1/
Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/
Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of
GDP) 5/

FY08/
09

FY09/
10

FY10/
11

FY11/
12

FY12/
13

FY13/
14

52.0

60.3

39.4

51.9

60.6

55.5

46.7

31.2

31.6

40.9

35.9

33.6

35.3

37.4

20.8

28.6

-1.5

15.9

26.9

20.2

9.3

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FY07/
08

Notes: Fiscal year starts with April and ends in March in the following year.
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

FY14/
15

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

200
7

200
8

1.0

2.1

1.0

0.1

0.1

0.4

-0.3

0.1

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

6.7

9.6

9.7

4.8

10.1

0.9

1.5

2.0

7.1

4.0

-2.4

-2.3

-2.7

-1.6

2.1

8.1

-2.4

-1.5

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

200
201
201
201
201
1Q
9
0
1
2
3
14
Please see the following page (Table 4)

2Q
14

3Q
14

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

4Q
14

201
4

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Monetary Policy Framework
Objective

Regime

Instruments

DecisionMaking
Process

The main objectives of AMBD are as follows:


a) To achieve and maintain domestic price stability;
b) To ensure the stability of the financial system, in particular by
formulating financial regulation and prudential standards;
c) To assist in the establishment and functioning of an efficient
payment and settlement systems and to oversee them; and
d) To foster and develop a sound and progressive financial services
sector.
The nations monetary discipline of having a currency board system
has ensured the full convertibility of base money with the exchange
rate pegged at par to the Singapore Dollar. Following the
establishment of the AMBD, the Currency Interchangeability
Agreement between the Government of Negara Brunei Darussalam
and the Government of the Republic of Singapore remains intact.
Under this agreement, the Singapore Dollar is customary tender in
Brunei and vice-versa.
Given that Brunei operates a currency-board-based monetary policy,
its main role is the issuance and management of Brunei currency
notes and coins to banks in the domestic financial system. It also
administers the printing of Brunei currency notes and in-house
minting of coins
Information on monetary and financial policies and statistics are
available on AMBDs website at www.ambd.gov.bn. AMBD also issues
directives and notices to financial institutions, where necessary.

Major Monetary Policy Decisions and Updates


No major monetary policy decisions.
Other updates:
(a)
Capital Market Supervision
In the area of capital market supervision, AMBD issued two notices which took
effect on 22nd August 2014.
The first notice (CMS/1/2014) is on exemption from public offering registration
requirement and applies to holders of Capital Markets Services Licences under the
Securities Markets Order, 2013 (SMO) and any persons granted exemptions to
conduct regulated activities pursuant to the repealed Securities Order, 2001.
Under the repealed Securities Order, 2001, securities as defined under the SMO,
with the exception of collective investment schemes, were not subject to any
licensing or registration requirement and persons offering such securities were
only required to furnish the Authority with a notification of the offering. However,
with the commencement of the SMO, any securities that do not fall within the
meaning of exempt securities and transactions under section 117 of the SMO and
that are offered by way of a public offering are required to file with the Authority,
a dated registration statement and form of prospectus, pursuant to section 116 of
the SMO. The notice exempts any securities offered before the commencement
date of the SMO from the registration requirement under section 116 of the SMO.
Nevertheless, such securities shall, from a date to be determined and announced

by the Authority, comply with all other applicable provisions of the SMO and
Regulations, including any reporting requirements or continuous disclosure
obligations imposed on such securities.
The rationale for the exemption given to securities that have been offered before
the enforcement of the SMO are as follows:
1) There are a number of bonds / notes that were offered by the industry for
several years before SMO issued. Registering all such securities may be
difficult for the industry, especially those that dates back a number of years.
AMBD wishes to facilitate business and not impose requirements that may
cause unnecessary burden to the industry.
2) The reporting requirements and continuous disclosure obligation would be
adequate and more relevant for the purposes of the Capital Market
Supervisory oversight.
The second notice (CMS/2/2014) is on withdrawal of exemptions granted under the
repealed Securities Order, 2001 and Mutual Funds Order, 2001. The notice applies
to banks, insurance companies, takaful operators and companies licensed under
the Registered Agents and Trustees Licensing Order, 2000 that were previously
exempted from obtaining a Dealers licence or Investment advisers licence under
the Securities Order, 2001 or automatically afforded an operators authorisation
within the meaning of section 6(2) of the repealed Mutual Funds Order, 2001.
The notice withdraws any exemptions provided to the persons above, whose
activities falls within the purview of the SMO. Such persons shall submit an
application to the Authority for a Capital Markets Services Licence (CMSL), before
the end of the Transitional Period, which is a transitional period of one year which
will commence on a date that will be determined and announced by the Authority.
Any persons that fail to obtain the licence must cease carrying out all regulated
activities on the expiry of the Transitional Period.
The rationale for the notice is to clarify the requirements of SMO, where such
companies that operate regulated activities are no longer exempted and required
to obtain the CMSL.
(b)
Insurance/Takaful : General Agent Framework
Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam (AMBD) in consultation with the industry had
produced a new registration framework for general insurance and general takaful
agents. This framework requires agents acting on behalf of general insurers and
general takaful operators to undergo a 2-tier registration process with AMBD and
Brunei Insurance & Takaful Association (BITA). The framework was launched on 1
July 2014 with existing agents to be expected to fully comply with the
requirements by 1 January 2015. AMBD had issued 3 guidelines for the framework:
1) Guidelines on Registration of General Insurance Agents;
2) Guidelines on Registration of General Takaful Agents; and
3) Guidelines on Fit and Proper Criteria for Key Responsible Persons in Insurance and
Takaful.
(c)
Deregulation of interest/profit rates on residential property
loans/financing
On 3rd October 2014, AMBD issued a Notice on the deregulation of interest/profit
rates on residential property loans/financing of licensed banks and Perbadanan

10

Tabung Amanah Islam Brunei (TAIB), which revoked the previous notice issued in
March 2013 on the maximum rates set for residential property loans/financing.
With the current notice, all banks are free to price their Residential Property
Loans/financing products within a reasonable range. The Authority will closely
monitor lending to this sector and reserves the right to intervene from time to time
to ensure a healthy competitive market for Residential Property Loans/Financing in
the country.
These measures were taken in the background of the following:
a) To ensure the original objectives of the interest/profit rate regulation on
residential property loans/financing (which are to make the loans/financing
affordable and to lessen government spending on providing low cost housing).
b) To enable the active participation of all banks, especially those banks who
withdrew their housing products from the market, or were restricting their
sale, due to conflicts with their own internal pricing policy. The lack of
consensus amongst the banks on the alternative proposal to link the housing
financing rate to a moving benchmark of SIBOR.
(d)
Power of Authority to Compound
AMBD has also issued a Notice on Power of Authority to Compound to all licensed
banks on 19th June 2014 which is effective from 1st July 2014, where banks shall
be subjected to the framework of compounding fines and penalties in the event of
non-compliance with, or failure to meet, any prudential regulatory requirements
that have been, or are currently in force, in relation to their operations and the
conduct of their business. This Notice aims to ensure a high standard of
compliance by all banks, thus reducing risks to the financial system and to
depositors and in the interests of ensuring a level playing field in the banking
industry.

11

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

14.
0

18.
0

21.
1

18.
8

20.
9

20.4

4.6

6.6

12.
0

8.4

4.9

4.3

4.5

7.7

9.3

11.
2

8.5

7.6

6.8

5.7

1.9

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.1

0.8

1.3

43.
0

34.
8

39.
1

34.
7

26.
9

30.
0

33.6

32.9

33.1

N/A

N/A

N/A

17.
7

19.
2

21.
0

22.4

23.5

23.3

20
07

20
08

12.
5

Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to


Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
(%) 3/

Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets


(%) 1/

Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/


Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

1Q
14
21.1

4.4

5.7
1.5

2Q
14

3Q
14

19.3

5.5

6.2
1.3

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.
Sources: National authorities.

12

4Q
14

20
14

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES1
ERPD Matrix Indicators
I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

Availabilit
y(i)

Timeliness(

ii)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and
Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

1 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Brunei Darussalam.

13

14

CAMBODIA
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
Indicators

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/


Gross Short-term External Debt
(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Foreign Reserves (in months of
imports) 4/

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q
14

43.9

44.9

45.2

55.1

59.3

55.1

56.2

28.
8

14.3

16.7

18.8

43.6

46.8

53.5

45.9

3.7

5.2

-6.3

-6.2

-5.8

-7.6

-12.1

-4.2

12.5

4.3

5.0

5.8

5.5

5.1

5.1

4.5

4.5

4.5

20
07
43.
3

20
08
41.
6

18.
1

3Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
The table below provides the current account balance excluding official transfers and net
error and omission

Current Account Balance,


excl. official transfers (% of
GDP)
Net Errors and Omissions (%
of GDP)

200
7

200
8

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q1
4

-5.4

-8.4

-8.9

-9.7

-9.0

-9.9

14.
0

-6.5

14.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-1.1

4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /


monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

15

4Q
14

20
14

16

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

13.
3

11.9

13.2

13.2

14.5

15.0

14.
7

15.
9

20.5

21.3

20.7

19.7

21.0

-2.8

-2.9

-6.4

-8.7

-7.3

-5.2

-5.9

-2.6

-2.7

-6.2

-8.4

-7.0

-4.9

-5.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

200
7

200
8

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

12.
1

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/
Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 5/

Notes:
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

17

201
4

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

20
07

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

20
08

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q1
4

2Q1
4

3Q1
4

4Q1
4

Please see the following page (Table 4)


7.6

25.
1

-0.4

4.0

5.5

3.0

2.9

4.6

4.7

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

4.8

36.
8

20.
9
28.
0

14.
6
26.
7

20.8

6.3

21.
4
31.
2

15.4

55.
0

20.
0
23.
4

23.2

21.8

62.
9
76.
0

Notes:.
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation. Currently CPI data covers only the capital city (Phnom Penh). A national CPI
data with provincial price index integrated has yet been made available.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country. With unofficial dollarization, it is difficult to ascertain total amount of foreign
currency in circulation and the actual figure of the money supply in Cambodia. Statistics
published by the National Bank of Cambodia include only deposits in banks
(denominated in both local and foreign currencies) and bills in circulation (in local
currency only).
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

18

201
4

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Monetary Policy Framework
Objective

Price stability: Law on the Organization and Conduct of the


National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) sets price stability in order to
facilitate economic development within the framework of the
country's economic and financial policy as the principal mission of
the NBC.
However, the central banks ability to use traditional
monetary instruments in conducting monetary policy is
limited due to high dollarization in the economy.

Regime

Cambodia has adopted managed float exchange rate regime.


The exchange rate has been stabilized but there is neither anchor
nor specific band of exchange rate fluctuation.

Instruments

Given the lack of instruments, the NBC has used foreign


exchange interventions to regulate the local currency
liquidity and to smooth fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Reserve requirements and refinancing facilities, have been
introduced to avoid distortion inducing credit controls. No
interest rate is set as benchmark and there are no
quantitative restrictions on bank lending.

Foreign Exchange Rates: When there is an upward pressure


on the exchange rate, the US dollar auction is made by the NBC in
order to realign the fluctuation. The NBC has no intention to
intervene to resist the downward pressure, except in
circumstances of disorderly market movements.
Reserve requirements: Banking institutions are required to
hold sufficient eligible assets, over the maintenance period, with
the Central Bank, to effectively support safe and sound
operational liquidity management. Currently, the NBC demands a
commercial bank to maintain reserve requirements against
deposits and borrowings at a daily average balance equal to 8% in
the local currency and 12.5% in foreign currencies.
Refinancing facilities: The NBC determined a refinancing
base interest rate of 0.5% per month or 6% per year for the local
currency refinancing for commercial banks in order to allow the
banks more flexibility to set their interest rates since January
2002.
Negotiable Certificates of Deposits (NCDs): NBC has
issued the Negotiable Certificates of Deposits (NCDs) since
September 2013. It would be a new market based monetary policy
instrument in the future. Currently, the amount of issued NCDs is
still limited.

19

20

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


200
9

201
0

20
11

201
2

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
14

32.
3

31.
4

26.
2

25.
0

24.
8

25.
3

24

5.9

4.7

3.4

2.8

3.0

3.6

3.7

3.9

2.0

2.9

3.9

2.9

2.1

2.0

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.6

2.8

1.0

1.3

1.7

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.1

Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/

64

75

91

N/A

97
N/
A

98

N/A

83
N/
A

87

N/A

95
N/
A

76

Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans


(%, optional) 6/

N/A

N/A

Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets
(%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
(%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/

200
7
23.
6

20
08
27.
6

2.9

N/A

3Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits). As the economy is highly dollarized, a large share of bank
deposits is in foreign currency. Below are the ratios of foreign currency deposits to total
deposits in Cambodias banks from 2007:

Foreign Currency Deposits


(% of Total Deposits)

200
7

200
8

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q1
4

98.
0

97.
0

96.
4

96.
8

96.
3

95.
7

95.
2

95.5

95.7

6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

21

4Q
14

201
4

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES2

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)
II/ Fiscal Policy
Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and
Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital
(%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Availabilit
y(i)

Timelines
s(ii)

Other
Issues, if
Any(iii)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential

2 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Cambodia.

22

areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

23

CHINA
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
Indicators

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/


Gross Short-term External Debt
(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Foreign Reserves (in months of
imports) 4/

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

8.6

8.6

9.3

9.5

9.0

15.
4

11.
6

10.
8

13.
2

15.
7

10.
1

9.3

4.9

4.0

19.
2

20.
6

28.
7

24.
5

20
07
11.
5

20
08

1Q
14

2Q
14

9.3

N/A

N/A

16.
3

17.
7

N/A

N/A

1.9

2.6

2.0

0.3

3.2

21.
9

21.
9

23.
5

24.2

24.4

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities)
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

24

201
4

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators

200
8
19.5

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

200
7
19.3

20.1

20.7

22.0

22.6

22.7

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/

18.7

19.9

22.4

22.4

23.1

24.3

24.6

Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/

-0.8

-0.6

-2.8

-2.5

-1.8

-1.5

-2.1

Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/


Central Government Debt (% of GDP)

N/A

N/A

-2.3

-2.0

-1.3

-1.0

-1.6

19.6

17.0

17.7

16.8

15.2

14.9

15.2

5/

Notes: Fiscal year starts with January and ends in December in the following year.
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

25

20
14

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

200
7

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

200
8

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

3Q
14

Please see the following page (Table 4)


4.8

5.9

-0.7

3.3

5.4

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

16.
7
16.
1

17.
8
15.
9

27.7

19.7

13.6

13.8

13.6

12.1

14.7

31.7

19.9

14.3

15.0

14.1

13.9

14.0

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country. China does not disclose core inflation officially.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country. For China, M2 is used in the above table.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. These numbers are presented as
italic. In the case of China, "Financial Institution Loan" published by the People's Bank of
China is used. Annual credit growth is calculated as year on year percentage change of
the defined credit at the end month of the calendar year".

Sources: National authorities.

26

4Q
14

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Monetary Policy Framework and Recent Policy Responses in China
Monetary Policy Framework
Monetary policy objectives
The objective is to maintain the stability of the value of the currency and thereby
promote economic growth.
Monetary policy instruments and implementation of monetary policy
To implement monetary policy, the People's Bank of China may apply the following
monetary policy instruments:
Require banking institutions to place deposit reserves at a given ratio;
Determine the benchmark interest rate of the central bank;
Conduct rediscount for banking financial institutions with accounts in the People's
Bank of China;
Provide lending to commercial banks;
Trade treasury bonds, other government securities, financial bonds and foreign
exchange on the open market; and
Other monetary policy instruments specified by the State Council.
RMB exchange rate regime
A managed floating exchange rate regime is based on market supply and demand with
reference to a basket of currencies.
Decision-making of monetary policy
The People's Bank of China shall, under the leadership of the State Council. The
People's Bank of China shall report to the State Council its decisions concerning annual
monetary supply, interest rate, exchange rate and other important issues specified by
the State Council for approval before they are implemented. The People's Bank of
China may, on its own, make and put into immediate effect decisions on other
monetary policy issues.
The Monetary Policy Committee is a consultative body for the making of monetary
policy by the PBC, whose responsibility is to advise on the formulation and adjustment
of monetary policy and policy targets for a certain period, application of monetary
policy instrument, major monetary policy measures and the coordination between
monetary policy and other macroeconomic policies.
Recent Policy Responses (2014)

In June, removed the ceiling for small value foreign currency deposits in Shanghai
area;
In June, reduced DRR in commercial banks to guide credit flow to agricultural
sector, rural areas, farmers and small and micro enterprises;
In April, reduced Deposit Reserve Ratio (DRR) in county level rural commercial
banks to guide credit flow to agricultural sector, rural areas, farmers;
In March, widened the daily trading band with USD from 1% to 2%.
Combined with Short-term Liquidity Operations (SLO), efforts were made to
conduct the open market operations flexibly for conducting two-way adjustments.
The Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF) was launched and conducted in September

27

and October, so as to keep the total liquidity at appropriate levels and to reduce
the financing cost of the real economy;
New central bank supportive loans and discount instruments were launched to
bring their roles into fuller play and to optimize the credit structure.
In late November, the PBOC cut the benchmark lending rate by 0.40%, to 5.6%
from 6%, to stimulate the economy.

28

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

201
3

N/A

N/A

12.
2

12.
7

13.
3

12.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

-2.1

-4.0

-4.5

11.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.3

65.
1

66.
9

66.
7

64.
5

64.
9

65.
3

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

20
07

20
08

Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted


Assets (%) 1/

N/A

Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to


Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

N/A

1Q
14

2Q
14

12.1

12.4

11.4

11.2

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.4

66.1

65.9

65.4

N/A

N/A

N/A

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

29

20
14

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES3
Availabilit
y(i)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

Timeliness(ii)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

3 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of China.

30

HONG KONG, CHINA


TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
Indicators

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/


Gross Short-term External Debt
(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
3/
Foreign Reserves (in months of
imports) 4/

200
7
355.
2

200
8
313.
2

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q1
4

333.
0

384.
7

395.
4

392.
1

425.
5

444.
3

456.
9

357.
4

266.
1

194.
3

241.
7

251.
6

237.
0

277.
7

290.
7

297.
4

13.0

15.0

9.9

7.0

5.6

1.6

1.9

1.7

1.6

5.0

5.6

8.8

7.4

7.1

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.2

3Q1
4

4Q1
4

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

31

201
4

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators
Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

FY07/
08
21.7

FY08/
09

FY09/
10

FY10/
11

FY11/
12

FY12/
13

FY13/
14

18.5

19.2

21.2

22.6

21.7

21.4

14.2

18.3

17.4

17.0

18.8

18.5

20.4

Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/

7.5

0.2

1.8

4.2

3.8

3.2

1.0

Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/


Central Government Debt (% of
GDP) 5/

7.5

0.3

1.8

4.3

3.8

3.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/

FY14/
15

Notes: Fiscal year starts with April and ends in May in the following year. Interest payment
includes HK$20 billion Government bonds and notes issued in 2004 only. Government
debts includes HK$20 billion Government bonds and notes issued in 2004 and the
Government bonds issued under the Government Bond Program. Gross government assets
are larger than gross debts.

1/
2/
3/
4/
5/

Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.


Expenditure = Operating Expenditure + Capital Expenditure bond repayments.
Overall Balance = Revenue - Expenditure.
Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Interest Payment.
Government Debts= Government Debts + Government Bonds (excluding exchange fund
bills and exchange fund notes).
6/ GDP is nominal and from April to March in the corresponding financial year.

Sources: National authorities.

32

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

20
07

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

20
08

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q
14

3Q
14

Please see the following page (Table 4)


2.0

4.3

0.5

2.4

5.3

4.1

4.3

4.2

3.7

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.6

5.2

8.0

12.9

11.0

12.4

12.2

15.0

10.
3

-2.4

23.3

13.8

7.2

13.8

17.6

14.8

20.
6
15.
6

Notes: The quarterly data in this table refer to the simple average of the monthly data. For
example, Q2 year-on-year growth rate equals average of year-on-year growth rates in April,
May and June.

1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country. Hong Kong does not disclose core inflation officially.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country. For Hong Kong, M3 is used in the above table.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year. In the case of Hong Kong, the sum of trade
finance and other loans for use in Hong Kong published by HKMA is used.

Sources: National authorities.

33

4Q
14

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Policy Framework
Monetary stability: The HKMA is responsible for achieving the monetary
policy objective in Hong Kong determined by the Financial Secretary,
including determining the strategy, instrument and operational means for
doing so, and for maintaining the stability and integrity of the monetary
system of Hong Kong.
Currency stability: The monetary policy objective of Hong Kong is currency
stability, defined as a stable external exchange value of the currency of
Hong Kong, in terms of its exchange rate in the foreign exchange market
against the USD, at around HKD7.80 to USD1.
Regime
Currency board system: The structure of the monetary system is
characterized by Currency Board arrangements, requiring the HKD
Monetary Base to be at least 100 per cent backed by, and changes in it to
be 100 per cent matched by corresponding changes in, USD reserves held
in the Exchange Fund at the fixed exchange rate of HKD7.80 to USD1.
Interest rate adjustment mechanism: Under the Currency Board system,
the stability of the HKD exchange rate is maintained through an automatic
interest rate adjustment mechanism. When there is a decrease in demand
for HKD assets and the HKD exchange rate weakens to the convertibility
rate, the HKMA stands ready to purchase HKDs from banks, leading to a
contraction of the Monetary Base. Interest rates then rise, creating the
monetary conditions conducive to capital inflows so as to maintain
exchange rate stability. Conversely, if there is an increase in the demand for
HKD assets, leading to a strengthening of the exchange rate, banks may
purchase HKDs from the HKMA. The Monetary Base correspondingly
expands, exerting downward pressure on interest rates and so discouraging
continued inflows.
Instruments Lender of last resort: In the event of a bank facing serious funding
difficulties, the HKMA may decide to provide Lender of Last Resort (LoLR)
support if it is satisfied that the banks failure may pose systemic risk.
Under the LoLR framework, the HKMA can employ a wide range of
instruments, such as repos, FX swaps and credit facilities, to provide
funding support to a problem bank. The range of eligible collateral for LoLR
support includes bank placements, residential mortgage loans and
investment-grade securities denominated in HKD or other currencies.
FX swaps and term repos: For system-wide HKD liquidity shortage, the
HKMA may provide liquidity assistance to banks via FX swaps and term
repos against HKD or foreign-currency denominated securities of acceptable
credit quality. These were originally two of the five temporary measures
introduced in September 2008 during the global financial crisis to help
relieve tensions in the local interbank market. Upon expiry of the five
temporary measures at end-March 2009, the HKMA decided to incorporate
FX swaps and term repos into our ongoing market operations to offer HKD
liquidity assistance to banks if needed, on a case-by-case basis.
Major Policy Responses and Updates (2014)
Policy
FX operation under the Currency Board system: In July and early August
Objective

34

Responses

2014, the HKMA passively sold HKD in response to banks triggering of the
Strong-side Convertibility Undertaking at HK$7.75/US$1, the first time since
December 2012. Strong demand for the HKD was mainly triggered by portfolio
inflows and commercial activities including M&A and dividend distribution.

35

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted
Assets (%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

20
08
14.
8

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
14

16.
9

15.
9

15.
8

15.
7

15.
9

15.9

16.1

N/A

3.7

3.5

1.9

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.4

N/A

1.2

1.6

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.6

N/A
50.
5

0.6
54.
2

0.8
51.
5

0.9
61.
6

0.8
66.
9

0.9
67.
1

1.1
70.
3

1.1

1.0

74.3

73.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

15.
8

15.
7

14.
1

13.5

13.3

20
07
N/A

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

36

20
14

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES4
ERPD Matrix Indicators

Availabilit
y(i)

Timeliness

I/ External Position and Market Access


Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)
II/ Fiscal Policy
Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy
Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)

(ii)

Other Issues,
if Any(iii)

Instead of core
inflation indicator, the
government releases
the underlying CPI
which excludes oneoff relief measures
impact on the
headline CPI.

Money Growth (%, year-on-year)


Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and
Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans
(%, optional)

Notes:

4 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Hong Kong, China.

37

1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

38

INDONESIA5
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
14

30.
1

31.
8

28.
3

26.
4

28.
7

30.
4

32.3

33.9

32.
8

39.
7

36.
4

34.
4

34.
7

39.
2

45.
7

45.2

46.5

Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3/

2.4

0.0

2.0

0.7

0.2

-2.8

-3.3

-2.1

-4.3

Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)


4/

6.2

4.3

7.1

7.9

7.0

6.4

5.6

5.9

6.3

Indicators

20
07

20
08

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/

32.
2

Gross Short-term External Debt


(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

5 Financial sector soundness and supervision matrix was not reported here, as the part was not confirmed by Indonesian
authorities as of November 27, 2014.

39

20
14

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

19.
8

15.7

15.5

16.3

16.2

15.8

19.
1

19.
9

17.4

16.2

17.4

18.1

18.2

-1.3

-0.1

-1.6

-0.7

-1.1

-1.9

-2.3

0.8

1.7

0.1

0.6

0.1

-0.6

-1.1

35.
2

33.
0

28.3

26.0

24.4

24.0

N/A

200
7

200
8

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

17.
9

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/
Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 5/

Notes:
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

40

201
4

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

20
07

Monetary Policy Framework

20
08

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

3Q
14

4Q
14

Please see the following page (Table 4)

Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)


1/

6.6

11.
1

2.8

7.0

3.8

4.3

7.0

7.8

7.1

Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,


optional) 2/

6.3

8.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.8

Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/

19.
3

14.
9

13.0

15.4

16.4

15.0

12.7

10.1

13.
2

Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

26.
0

30.
8

10.1

23.3

24.7

23.1

20.9

19.2

16.
6

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

41

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES

Monetary Policy Framework

Objective

Regime

Policy rate

Instrument
s

Stability of the Rupiah: Article 7 of Act No. 3 of 2004 stipulates BIs


goal as achieving and maintaining the stability of the rupiah. This goal is
defined as a stability of prices for goods and services reflected in
inflation. Exchange rate stability plays a crucial role in achieving price and
financial system stability. So Bank Indonesia also operates an exchange
rate policy designed to minimize excessive rate volatility, rather than to
peg the exchange rate to a particular level.
Inflation targeting: Bank Indonesia has opted for a working
framework known as the Inflation Targeting Framework, adopted in July
2005, by replacing the previous monetary policy target using base money.
Current years inflation target has been set at 4.5% +/- 1% in terms of the
year-on-year rate of increase in CPI. In accordance with this target, Bank
Indonesia will continue to maintain rupiah stability in line with its
fundamental value.
The BI Rate: The BI Rate is announced by the Board of Governors of
Bank Indonesia in each monthly Board of Governors Meeting. It is
implemented in the Bank Indonesia monetary operations conducted by
means of liquidity Management on the money market to achieve the
monetary policy operational target. The monetary policy operational target
is reflected in movement in the Interbank Overnight Rate. It is then
expected that bank deposit rates will track the movement in interbank
rates, with bank lending rates following suit.
Open market operations (OMOs): This is implemented to achieve
overnight interbank rate as the operational target of monetary policy.
OMOs are divided into the two following categories; (1) Contractionary
OMOs: using instruments with (i) SBI and SBIS issuance, (ii) Reverse Repo
of Government Securities (SBN) transactions, (iii) Outright sale of
Government Securities (SBN), (iv) Term Deposit and (v) Foreign exchange
selling transactions against Rupiah. (2) Expansionary OMOs: using
instruments with (i) Repo transactions, (ii) Outright purchase of
Government Securities (SBN) and (iii) Foreign exchange buying
transactions against Rupiah.
[note] Standing facilities: Standing facilities are parts of monetary
operation which function to limit the volatility of overnight interbank rates.
(1) Provision of Rupiah funds to bank (lending facility): the facility for banks
experiencing liquidity problems by using its SBI and/or SBN as an
underlying for the repo transaction with Bank Indonesia. (2) Placement of
Rupiah funds in Bank Indonesia by banks (deposit facility): the facility for
banks with excess liquidity by placing its own funds to Bank Indonesia.

42


Decision
Making
Process

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC): The monetary policy stance is


adopted by Bank Indonesia in the Board of Governors Meeting. This
meeting convenes in the first week of each month for a comprehensive
assessment of the latest developments in macroeconomic and policy
conditions and of projections for the economy, including inflation. The
Board Meeting is valid if attended by more than half of the members of the
Board of Governors. Decisions in a Board meeting are adopted through
mutual deliberation to achieve a consensus. If the meeting fails to reach a
consensus, the Governor shall adopt a final decision.

Major Policy Responses and Updates

Policy
Responses

Other
Updates

BI rate hikes: BI raised the BI rate by 175 bps in 2013 in order to anchor
inflation expectations as well as to stabilize the financial market and
reduce the current account deficit. In November 2014, BI raised the rate
by 25 bps in response to a fuel subsidy reduction.
Macroprudential: BI reduced loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for the purchase of
a second property to 60% and to 50% for purchases beyond the second
property (Sep. 2013)
Bilateral Swap Arrangement (BSA): BI extended BSA with Japan (Dec.
2013, USD 22,76 bn).
Billateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) : BI extended BCSA
with China (Oct 2013, CNY100 billion or equivalent IDR175 trillion) and
entered BCSA with Korea (March 2014, KRW 10.7 trillion or equivalent IDR
115 trillion).

TABLE 5: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES6
Availabilit
y(i)

Timeliness(

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)

III/ Monetary Policy


Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

ii)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

6 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Indonesia.

43

Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)


Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)

IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision


Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

44

JAPAN
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
Indicators

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/


Gross Short-term External Debt
(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
3/
Foreign Reserves (in months of
imports) 4/

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

39.7

40.0

43.3

50.9

54.6

61.6

61.3

63.0

104.
6

120.
6

127.
9

152.
8

170.
8

192.
0

185.
8

177.
7

181.
0

4.9

3.0

2.9

4.0

2.2

1.0

0.7

-0.7

0.3

18.8

16.2

22.9

19.0

18.2

17.2

18.3

15.7

15.6

200
7

200
8

38.6

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) = Current account balance / GDP = (Exports Imports) + Net Service + Net income from abroad + Net current transfers) / GDP at
current year
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import of goods and services value (BOP, 12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

45

201
4

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

31.2

31.6

29.6

29.6

30.8

31.2

31.7

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/

33.3

35.7

40.0

38.9

40.6

39.9

40.0

2.1

4.1

10.4

9.3

9.8

8.7

8.3

2.1
183.
0

3.8
191.
8

9.9
210.
2

8.6
216.
0

9.0
229.
8

7.8
237.
3

7.6
243.
4

Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/


Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of
GDP) 5/

Notes:
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

46

2014

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

20
07

20
200
201
201
201
201
08
9
0
1
2
3
Please see the following page (Table 4)

0.1

1.4

-1.3

-0.7

-0.3

0.0

0.0

1.5

-1.3

-1.0

-0.2

2.1

1.8

3.1

2.3

0.9

4.0

-1.3

-2.0

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-onyear) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
3/
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
4/

1Q1
4

2Q
14

0.4

1.5

1.6

-0.1

0.4

1.3

1.3

3.2

2.6

4.2

3.6

3.0

0.7

1.9

2.8

2.5

2.8

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes: For headline and core inflation, the direct effect from the consumption tax hike in
April 2014 is excluded for the 2Q 2014 data.

1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 pluses deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

47

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES

Objective

Regime

Instruments

DecisionMaking
Process

Monetary Policy Framework


Price stability. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Act states that the BOJ's
monetary policy should be "aimed at achieving price stability, thereby
contributing to the sound development of the national economy."
The BOJ conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the
policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability.
The "price stability target" is the inflation rate that the BOJ judges
to be consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis. The BOJ
recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a
sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward
strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's
economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the BOJ sets the
"price stability target" at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of
change in the consumer price index (CPI) -- a main price index.
According to the guideline for money market operations decided at
MPMs, the BOJ controls the amount of funds in the money market,
mainly through money market operations.
The BOJ supplies funds to financial institutions by, for example,
extending loans to them, which are backed by collateral submitted to
the Bank by these institutions. Such an operation is called a fundssupplying operation. The opposite type of operation, in which the BOJ
absorbs funds by for example issuing and selling bills, is called a
funds-absorbing operation.
The basic stance for monetary policy is decided by the Policy Board
at Monetary Policy Meetings (MPMs). At MPMs, the Policy Board
discusses the economic and financial situation, decides the guideline
for money market operations and the BOJ 's monetary policy stance
for the immediate future, and announces decisions immediately after
the meeting concerned.
Major Policy Responses and Updates (since 2013)
On April 4 2013, The BOJ introduced the "quantitative and
qualitative monetary easing" (QQE) to achieve the price stability
target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the
CPI at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two
years. Under the QQE, the BOJ continues to pursue a new phase of
monetary easing both in terms of quantity and quality. It will double
the monetary base and the amounts outstanding of Japanese
government bonds (JGBs) as well as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in
two years, and more than double the average remaining maturity of
JGB purchases.
On February 2014, BOJ decided to double the scale of (i) the FundProvisioning Measure to Stimulate Bank Lending and (ii) the FundProvisioning Measure to Support Strengthening the Foundations for
Economic Growth, and to extend the application period for these
facilities by one year.
On October 2014, BOJ decided to expand the QQE. The pace of
increase in the monetary base is accelerated from 60-70 trillion to 80
trillion. In addition, the target amount of JGB purchase is increased
from JPY50 trillion to JPY80 trillion with extended maturity from 7 years

48

to 7-10 years.

49

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted
Assets (%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

201
3

12.
4
26.
3

13.
9
22.
6

14.
2
22.
2

14.
2
21.
4

15.
9
17.
8

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.1

0.4
0
0.7
6

0.2
0
0.7
8

0.2
1
0.7
9

0.4
0
0.7
7

0.3
3
0.7
5

0.2
7
0.7
5

0.3
9
0.7
6

14.
4

13.
8

14.
3

14.
3

14.
2

14.
1

13.
9

20
07
12.
6
17.
0

20
08
12.
0
16.
0

3.1

1Q
14

2Q
14

3Q
14

15.6
16.2
1.9
0.36
0.76
13.9

13.9

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

50

4Q
14

20
14

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES7
Availabilit
y(i)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

Timeliness
(ii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)

III/ Monetary Policy


Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)

IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision


Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

7 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Japan.

51

KOREA
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
Indicators

200
7

200
8

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/

30.2

31.5

Gross Short-term External Debt


(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

63.3

74.0

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)


3/

1.1

0.3

Foreign Reserves (in months of


imports) 4/

8.8

5.5

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

38.2

32.5

33.3

33.5

31.9

55.1

46.8

45.6

39.1

33.3

3.7

2.6

1.6

4.2

6.1

10.0

8.2

7.0

7.6

8.1

1Q
14

2Q
14

30.8

31.0

34.9

35.9

4.4

6.8

8.0

8.4

3Q
14

Notes: GDP in 2014 is estimated using the GDP in 1Q 2014.


1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors.(nb: not including contingent liabilities)
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign
reserves/monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

52

4Q
14

201
4

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators
Revenue (% of GDP) 1/
Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/
Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of
GDP) 5/

200
7

200
8

23.4

22.7

19.8

21.3

3.6

1.4

N/A

N/A

28.7

28.0

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q1
4

21.8

21.4

21.9

22.6

22.0

5.5

11.1

23.3

20.1

22.1

21.3

21.0

6.7

12.8

-1.5

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.0

-1.2

-1.7

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

31.2

31.0

31.6

32.2

34.3

33.3

34.6

3Q1
4

Notes:
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue + Social Security Contribution.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure + Net Lending (including Net
Acquisition).
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure & Net Lending.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Interest Payment (not an official data). National
authorities do not officially calculate primary balance and no data for this indicator are
thus provided.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt + Central Government Guaranteed Debt.

Sources: National authorities.

53

4Q1
4

201
4

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


20
07

20
08

2.5

4.7

2.3

4.3

Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/

10.
8

Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

14.
9

Indicators
Monetary Policy Framework
Headline Inflation (%, year-onyear) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/

200
201
201
201
201
1Q
9
0
1
2
3
14
Please see the following page (Table 4)

2Q
14

2.8

3.0

4.0

2.2

1.3

1.1

1.6

3.6

1.8

3.2

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.2

12.
0

9.9

6.0

5.5

4.8

4.6

5.0

5.7

14.
1

4.0

3.5

7.7

3.4

5.0

6.1

6.3

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Headline inflation is defined as the year-on-year percentage change of Consumer Price
Index(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the growth rate of 12-month
average headline CPI.
2/ Core inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding prices of
agricultural products and oil. Annual core inflation is calculated as the growth rate of 12month average core CPI.
3/ Annual money growth is calculated as the growth of M2 based on the end of calendar
year. M2 is defined as currency in circulation and deposits.
4/ Credit growth is calculated as the growth in total loans of commercial and specified
banks in Korea, based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

54

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Policy Framework
Price stability: Bank of Korea (BOK) Act sets it as the main purpose of the
BOK's establishment in 1950.

Financial stability: In order for the national economy to achieve stable


growth, a revised BOK Act was promulgated on 16 September 2011 and
included The Bank of Korea needs to pay attention to financial stability in the
implementation of monetary policy. Thus, the Bank of Korea is also making
policy efforts to maintain financial stability while pursuing price stability
through implementing its monetary policy.
Regime
Inflation targeting: The BOK has adopted inflation targeting as the operational
framework for its monetary policy since 1998. The inflation target for
2013~2015 has been set at 2.5%~3.5% in terms of the year-on-year rate of
increase in CPI.
Policy
The BOK Base Rate: This is the reference rate applied in transactions between
Rates
the BOK and financial institutions, such as repurchase agreements (RPs) and
the Banks liquidity adjustment deposits and loans. The Base Rate is used as a
fixed bid rate for its sales of 7-day RPs and as the minimum bid rate for its
purchases of 7-day RPs.
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC): MPC determines the Base Rate every
month. The Monetary Policy Committee applies a holistic approach, taking into
overall account domestic price movements, the economy, financial and foreign
exchange market conditions, changes in the flow of the world economy,
etc. The minutes are released on Tuesday two weeks after the meeting.
Instrume
Open market operations: The BOK buys or sells securities with financial
nts
institutions in the open markets, thereby influencing the amount of money in
circulation and/or interest rates. These operations are conducted in three ways:
(i) through outright or RP (mostly with 7-day maturities) transactions of
securities such as government bonds, government-guaranteed bonds, and
securities specified by MPC, (ii) through the issuance and repurchase of
Monetary Stabilization Bonds (MSBs) which have relatively long maturities, (iii)
and through commercial banks term deposits made in the Monetary
Stabilization Account (MSA).

Lending and deposit facilities: Through these, the BOK supplies loans to
or receives deposits from individual banking institutions. Lending facilities
include (i) Liquidity Adjustment Loans, (ii) Bank Intermediated Lending Support
Facility (formerly Aggregate Credit Ceiling Loans), (iii) Intraday Overdrafts, and
(iv) special loans such as Emergency Credit to financial institutions and Credit
to for-profit enterprises. The BOK also operates 'Liquidity Adjustment Deposit'
facilities, which enable financial institutions to deposit their excess cash arising
in the process of their supply of and demand for funds. The interest rates of
liquidity adjustment deposits and loans are 100bp below and above the Base
Rate, respectively.

Reserve requirements: Commercial banks and special banks are obliged to


hold a certain ratio of their liabilities subject to reserve requirements (Reserve
Objective

55

Requirement Ratio, RRR) in their accounts with the central bank. RRR varies
depending upon their deposit liability types; 0.0% for long-term savings
deposits for housing, property formation savings; 2.0% for time deposits,
installment savings, mutual installments, housing installments, CDs; 7.0% for
others.
Major Policy Responses and Updates (as of August 2014)
Policy
Base Rate Cut: In August 2014, the BOK lowered the Rate by 25 bps to 2.25
Response
percent.
s
Credit Policy: Apart from the Base Rate, there has been a thorough realignment
of the Aggregate Credit Ceiling Loans system (ACCL), including target sectors,
support ceilings, interest rates and renaming of the ACCL into Bank
Intermediated Lending Support Facility. In terms of the conduct of monetary
policy, the Bank of Korea has begun to make public the number of votes cast
for or against the Base Rate setting decisions at the press briefing held
immediately after the policy meeting.
Other

Bilateral Swap Arrangements (BSAs): BOK made or promised to establish


Updates
BSAs with several central banks recently: Indonesia (Mar 2014), UAE (Oct,
2013), Malaysia (Oct 2013), Australia (Feb 2014) while it ended its existing BSA
with Japan (Jul 2013).

56

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets
(%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
(%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans
(%, optional) 6/

200
7

200
8

12.3

12.3

N/A

N/A

0.7

1.1

1.1

0.5

122.
5

118.
0

27.2

25.6

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

14.4

14.6

14.0

14.3

14.5

14.1

14.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.2

1.9

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.8

1.7

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.3

0.4

112.
4

98.2

96.6

96.6

97.8

96.8

97.4

27.2

28.4

28.5

28.5

28.1

27.8

27.9

3Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

57

4Q
14

201
4

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES8
Availability(i

ERPD Matrix Indicators

I/ External Position and Market Access


Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)
II/ Fiscal Policy
Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%)

Timeliness(ii)

Other Issues,
if Any(iii)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

8 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Korea.

58

LAO PDR
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS

Indicators

20
07

20
08

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/

57.
9

48.
7

48.2

54.6

51.8

49.6

48.2

N/A

N/A

Gross Short-term External Debt


(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Current Account Balance (% of


GDP) 3/ 4/

2.5

1.7

-1.1

0.4

2.0

-4.2

3.6

-0.3

N/A

Foreign Reserves (in months of


imports) 5/

6.0

5.4

5.2

4.3

3.4

5.1

4.8

4.64

N/A

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes: Recent current account revisions are due to high values of errors and omissions in
the balance of payments.
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors.(nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ The current account and the capital account have occasionally been inaccurate due to
large errors and omissions and have been revised from time to time. The table below
provides the current account balance excluding official transfers and net error and
omission

200
7

200
8

200
8

59

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

20
14

Current Account Balance,


excl. Official Transfers (% of
GDP)9

-0.5

1.4

0.3

-2.8

Net Errors and Omissions


(% of GDP)9

-1.2

0.1

-6.0

-5.0

-0.7

-8.5

-4.5

-0.5

-2.1

-7.2

-7.9

-9.1

-4.8

1
0
.
6

5/Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /


monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

9 AMRO staff calculations based on the data provided by national authorities.


60

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


FY07/
08

FY08/
09

FY09/
10

FY10/
11

FY11/
12

FY12/
13

FY13/
14

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

17.8

17.3

22.3

22.4

24.1

24.4

24.3

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/

20.9

20.7

24.6

24.4

25.5

30.8

28.7

Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/

-3.1

-3.4

-2.3

-2.0

-1.4

-6.4

-4.4

Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/

-2.3

-2.8

-1.6

-1.3

-0.6

-5.1

-3.4

Central Government Debt (% of


GDP) 5/

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Indicators

FY14/
15

Notes: Fiscal year starts with October in the previous year and ends in September in the
following year. FY13/14 is as of 2Q 2013 (calendar year)
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue + Grant. In the case of Lao PDR, revenue includes
grant.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service. In the case of Lao PDR, debt service
only includes interest payment.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

61

TABLE3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

200
7

Monetary Policy Framework

200
8

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
14

3Q
14

4Q
14

Please see the following page (Table 4)

Headline Inflation (%, year-onyear) 1/

4.5

7.6

0.0

6.0

7.6

4.3

6.4

5.7

4.7

Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,


optional) 2/

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Money Growth (%, year-onyear) 3/

39.
6

17.
49

31.
3

39.
5

28.
7

31.
0

17.
0

19.0
9

23.9

Credit Growth (%, year-onyear) 4/

26.
64

71.
95

71.
1

49.
1

45.
1

33.
8

38.
6

29.0
4

23.9

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country. With certain degree of dollarization within the economy, it is certainly difficult
to ascertain total amount of foreign currency in circulation, as well as the actual figures
of the money supply in Lao PDR. The only data available for the amount of foreign
currency in the economy is its share out of total bank deposits.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

62

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY

Objective

Regime

Instruments

Monetary Policy Framework

The Bank of Lao PDR (BoL) performs a combined monetary


policy framework with an objective to promote and maintain the
national monetary stability, as well as to contribute socioeconomic development.

The BoL undertakes a managed floating exchange regime as


the main instrument in order to maintain the national monetary
stability by keeping a close watch on exchange movements in
both domestic and international as a basis to set a daily reference
rate of LAK/USD.

The BoL intervenes in the foreign exchange market if deems


necessary as the lender of last resort, with an aim to provide
sufficient foreign exchange liquidity to meet the demand of the
society and diminish an illegal foreign exchange trading.
In recent years, the BoL has used several instruments to implement
monetary policy:
Reserve Requirement: The reserve requirement has been set
at 5 percent for LAK deposits and 10 percent for foreign
currency deposits since 2006. In 2008, a reserve requirement
for eligible certificates of deposits was introduced at 2 percent
for both LAK and foreign currency. Neither the required nor
excess reserves are remunerated.
Standing Facility: The BoL has a non-collateralized overdraft
lending facility, on which banks can draw for short-term
liquidity. Overdraft must be paid within 7 days. Interest is
charged at a fixed rate set by the BoL and adjusted
infrequently. This rate is generally regarded as the policy rate,
as it is the only central bank rate that is published.
Open Market Operations (OMO): The BoL utilizes net sales of
the BoL bonds (a short-term instrument) and auctions of
treasury bills to conduct OMO. Nets sales of BoL bonds have
been the most active instrument in recent years, as they have
been used to sterilize BoLs quasi-fiscal operations. Treasury
bills have been used much less.
Statutory Liquidity requirements (SLR): Net Open Position
(NOP) has been used, commercial banks are required to hold
NOP at 20 percent for a single foreign currency and 25 percent
for multiple foreign currencies.

Monetary Policy Framework


In response to the foreign liquidity squeeze in the banking sector in 2Q 2013, the
BoL stepped in to provide foreign exchange liquidity to the commercial banks.
The BoL announced in September 2013 that the central bank would not allow any
commercial bank to release foreign currency loans to companies which do not
generate foreign currency income, as part of efforts to build up the foreign reserves.
In May 2014, the BoL has announced a suspension on the establishment of new
commercial banks in Lao PDR, as it moves to evaluate the current situation in the
country's banking industry. According to an announcement from the central bank
issued on May 21, the BoL will temporarily suspend licensing to establish new
commercial banks excepted requested from subsidiaries and foreign branches
banks.

63

64

TABLE5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


200
7

200
8

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

2013

1Q
14

2Q
14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.75

N/A

N/A

Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/

37.9

55.2

73.0
3

75.8
4

85.3
3

86.1

100.3
8

95.7
8

92.4

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Indicators

Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted


Assets (%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision)
to Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/

Residential Real Estate Loans to Total


Loans
(%, optional) 6/

3Q
14

Notes: By law, Banks are required to hold a liquidity ratio of 20 to 25 percent. The NPL
ratio has been considered well below the annual target of 3 percent.

1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated


regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).Despite a gradual decline in share of foreign currency, the
phenomenon of dollarization remains. As a ratio of the overall bank deposits, more than
half of the total deposits are still denominated in foreign currency. Below are the shares
(ratios) of foreign currency deposits out of total deposits in Lao PDR for the period 20072013:

2007

2008

200
9

65

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q1
4

4Q
14

201
4

Foreign Currency
Deposits (% of Total
Deposits)

67.3
9

62.3
4

58.
0

53.
6

53.
4

51.
1

50.
2

51.1
5

50

6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

66

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES10
Availabilit
y(i)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

Timelines
s(ii)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

10 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Lao PDR.

67

MALAYSIA
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

2Q
14

30.8

32.7

28.5

29.1

63.9

70.6

60.9

69.5

16.2

25.4

23.5

24.2

24.5

66.0

76.7

79.1

82.0

15.4

17.1

15.5

10.9

11.6

5.8

4.0

7.7

6.1

8.0

7.3

9.1

7.5

8.9

8.5

8.2

7.9

7.3

Indicators

200
7

200
8

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/

28.2

Gross Short-term External Debt


(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)
4/

3Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities). As of 2014, external debt has been
redefined in line with international standards to include non-resident holdings of localcurrency denominated debt papers and other debt-related non-resident financial flows,
such as trade credits, currency and deposits, and other loans and liabilities. Data in
black that has been confirmed by the National Authorities have not been redefined
according to the new classification. Data from 2012 onwards reflect redefined external
debt according to the new classification.
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

68

4Q
14

201
4

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators*

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

20.
8

22.3

20.0

20.9

22.1

21.6

24.
6

25.
5

29.0

25.6

25.9

26.8

25.7

-3.1

-4.6

-6.7

-5.4

-4.8

-4.5

-3.9

-1.2

-3.0

-4.7

-3.5

-2.8

-2.4

-1.8

40.
1

39.
8

50.8

51.1

51.5

53.3

54.7

20
07

20
08

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

21.
0

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/
Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 5/

Notes:
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

69

20
14

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

20
07

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-onyear) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/

5.4

0.6

1.7

3.2

1.6

2.1

3.5

3.3

1.8

4.0

2.7

1.5

2.4

2.1

1.8

N/A

N/A

9.5

11.
9

9.2

6.8

14.
3

9.0

8.1

5.9

5.6

8.6

12.
8

7.8

12.
7

13.
6

10.
4

10.
6

10.2

9.3

Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)


4/

2Q
14

2.0

Money Growth (%, year-on-year)


3/

20
200 201 201 201 201 1Q
08
9
0
1
2
3
14
Please see the following page (Table 4)

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country. For Malaysia, core inflation is provided by Bank Negara Malaysia upon request.
As core inflation data is provided by the authorities in strict confidence, no part of the
data shall be quoted or replicated to the public.
3/ For Malaysia, M3 is used in the above table. M3 is currency in circulation and deposits
placed with banking institutions (commercial, investment and Islamic banks).
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

70

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Objective

Regime

Instrume
nts

Decision
-Making
Process

Policy

Policy Framework
According to Central Bank of Act 2009 of Country A, the primary objective of
the Central Bank is to promote monetary stability and financial stability
conducive to the sustainable growth of the economy
Bank Negara does not conduct inflation targeting. Since April 2004, Bank
Negara conducts monetary policy through the Overnight Policy Rate. The OPR
has a dual role as a signaling device to indicate the monetary policy stance
and as a target rate for the day-to-day liquidity operations of the Central
Bank.
Open market operations: Bank Negara conducts liquidity management
using money and/or open market operations. Open Market Operations
instruments include repurchase (RP) and reverse repurchase (RRP)
transactions, sales and purchases of securities, and issuance of Bank Negara
bills. Monetary operations of the Central Bank will target the overnight
interbank rate. Liquidity management will aim at ensuring the appropriate
level of liquidity that would influence the overnight interbank rate to move
close to the OPR. Liquidity operations will also be conducted at other
maturities but without targeting a specific interest rate level.
Overnight Operating Corridor and Standing Facilities. To minimize
excessive volatility in the overnight rate, the Central Bank will specify a
corridor around the OPR. The corridor is set at 25 basis points around the
OPR. Day-to-day liquidity operations will aim to hold the overnight rate close
to the announced OPR. A standing facility is introduced to ensure that the
overnight interbank rate fluctuates within this corridor by providing a lending
facility at the upper limit of the operating band and a deposit facility at the
lower limit of the operating band. Market participants will transact among
interbank institutions at a rate within the operating band to meet their shortterm liquidity needs before utilizing the standing facility.
Statutory Reserve Requirements: Banking institutions namely commercial
banks, merchant/investment banks and Islamic banks are required by the
Central Bank to maintain balances in their Statutory Reserve Accounts (SRA)
equivalent to a certain proportion (at present, at least 4 %) of their eligible
liabilities (EL), this proportion is called the SRR rate. The SRR is used to
withdraw or inject liquidity when the excess or lack of liquidity in the banking
system is perceived by the Bank to be large and long-term in nature.
Selective credit and administrative measures: The Central Bank issues
lending guidelines to financial institutions and can impose macro-prudential
measures in order to promote financial stability
The responsibility for formulating monetary policy lies with the Monetary
Policy Committee, comprising of the Governor, Deputy Governors and not less
than three but not more than seven other members.
The Monetary Policy Committee typically holds monetary policy committee
meetings six times a year with meeting intervals of six to eight weeks
Major Policy Responses and Updates (2013 & 2014)
OPR hike. After remaining at 3.00 percent throughout 2013, Bank Negara raised

71

Response
s
Other
Updates

the OPR by 25bps to 3.25 percent at its monetary policy meeting in July 2014.

As part of efforts to strengthen mutual cooperation, a series of MoUs were


signed in 2013, including with the central banks of Myanmar, Brunei
Darussalam, United Arab Emirates
The Financial Services Act and Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 were
implemented in June 2013
Macro-prudential measures to contain excessive household indebtedness were
implemented in July 2013
Further liberalization of the capital market was announced in June 2014,
including i) full liberalization of unit trust management companies with full
foreign ownership allowed (effective 9 June 2014), ii) removal of mandatory
requirements for credit ratings (effective 1 Jan 2017) and iii) 100% foreignowned international credit agencies to be allowed to operate in Country A
(effective 1 Jan 2017)

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted
Assets (%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision)
to Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

15.4

14.8

15.7

15.7

14.4

14.5

14.8

12.6

13.9

10.7

8.1

8.5

8.2

7.7

4.8

3.7

3.4

2.7

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

76.1

77.7

77.9

81.3

80.9

82.1

84.5

85.2

85.7

27.1

26.5

26.8

26.9

26.8

27.4

28.1

28.5

28.8

200
7

200
8

13.2

12.6

24.7

18.2

6.5

3Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

72

4Q
14

201
4

Sources: National authorities.

73

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES11
ERPD Matrix Indicators
I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)
II/ Fiscal Policy
Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)

Central Government Debt (% of GDP)


III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy
Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)(iv)

Money Growth (%, year-on-year)


Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and
Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital
(%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Availabilit
y(i)

Timelines
s(ii)

Other Issues,
if Any(iii)

Estimate only
using debt
service charges

Need to request
from the
authorities

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.

11 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Malaysia.

74

3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

75

MYANMAR
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
Indicators

FY07/
08

FY08/
09

FY09/
10

FY10/
11

FY11/
12

FY12/
13

FY13/
14

Gross External Debt (% of


GDP) 1/

40.0

29.0

36.2

29.0

27.2

24.8

18.612

Gross Short-term External


Debt
(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Current Account Balance (%


of GDP) 3/

-0.5

-3.3

-2.8

-1.3

-2.6

-4.2

-3.712

Foreign Reserves (in months


of imports) 4/

7.5

6.4

7.8

9.5

5.4

6.0

N/A

2Q
14

3Q
14

4Q
14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average). For December 2013, AMRO estimates the
import cover at 7.5 (computed as GIR divided by monthly average of imports of goods
from January to December 2013). IMF projects the official reserves of Myanmar at the
end of FY 2013/14 to be US$5.5 billion (with import cover equivalent to 3.9 months of
imports). The major source of the discrepancy arises from IMFs stricter definition of
official reserves and the use of not only average imports of goods from January to
December but also include payments for services and income in the divisor.

Sources: National authorities.

12 AMRO staff calculations based on the data proved by national authorities.


76

20
14

77

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY

FY08/
09

FY09/
10

FY10/
11

FY11/
12

FY12/
13

17.2

15.9

13.9

14.9

14.7

27.5

21

18.2

18.5

19.6

18.5

24.7

25.6
30.5

Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/

-3.8

-2.3

-4.6

-4.7

-3.8

2.8

-4.9

Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/


Central Government Debt (% of
GDP) 5/

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

77.4

57.3

57.4

53.0

34.9

35.3

36.4

Indicators
Revenue (% of GDP) 1/
Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/

FY07/
08

FY13/
14

Notes: Fiscal year starts in April and ends in March of the following year.
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

78

FY14/
15

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators
Monetary Policy Framework
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

20
07
35.
0

20 200 201 201 201 201 1Q


08
9
0
1
2
3
14
Please see the following page (Table 4)
26.
1.5
7.7
5.1
1.5 5.513 5.713
8

2Q
14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

29.
9
22.
3

14.
9
14.
2

30.
6
29.
0

42.
5
61.
1

30.
5
64.
8

31.
6
52.
8

39.6

32.5

13

13

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3Q
14

6.013
N/A

Notes:
1/Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

13 AMRO staff calculations based on the data proved by national authorities.


79

4Q
14

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES

Objective

Regime

Instruments

Policy Framework
-In July 2013, Myanmars President, Thein Sein, signed into law a bill that
is
aimed at establishing the independence for the countrys central
bank, the new Central Bank of Myanmar Law (CBML, Pyidaungsu
Hlattaw Law No.16/2013).
-CBMs functions and objectives under the new Law include:
-the conduct of monetary and exchange rate policy to deliver price and
exchange stability
-the attainment of financial sector stability through supervision,
regulation,
and in providing banks with lender of last resort facilities
-the promotion of efficient payments systems and clearing arrangements
-acting as banker to the government, and as the issuer of the currency
-managing Myanmars official foreign exchange reserves
- The object of the CBML is to establish the legal independence of the
Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM)
- The new CBML gives the central bank the authority and responsibility to
implement monetary and exchange rate policies independently from
the Ministry of Finance and Revenue
- A number of measures reinforce the institutions new autonomous
power:
- The governor of the CBM is elevated to the level of a Minister of the
Cabinet
- A Board of Directors is to be the CBMs ultimate internal decision-making
body. Chaired by the Governor of the CBM, it will comprise nine members. Four of these (the CBM Governor and three newly-created
Deputy Governor positions) will be from within the CBM itself, the
other five being external professional experts selected by the
government, and approved by the Parliament. Directors cannot be
members of parliament or a political party, nor can they hold more
than 5 per cent equity in a corporation. The expertise of the five
external directors must be in operational areas of central banking
economics, finance, banking law, accounting and/or auditing.
- The CBM will no longer be permitted to buy primary issues of
government bonds, or to otherwise lend to the government, without
the approval of parliament. Government bonds can be purchased
from other banks, and from the general public, but in the absence of a
parliamentary approval this can only be via secondary securities
markets
- Under the new CBML, Myanmars central bank is required to submit
reports on monetary conditions to the parliament at least twice a
year, and to publish quarterly reports on monetary developments
- In the conduct of its monetary policy duties, the new legislation
authorizes the CBM to conduct what is commonly known as open
market operations via the purchase and sale of financial securities, in

80

order in turn to impact upon monetary conditions


- Myanmar does not yet possess the secondary markets in securities that
would allow such operations to take place. In their stead, the CBM
currently conducts deposit and credit auctions.
- Broader monetary conditions is also affected by the floors and caps that
the CBM imposes on the interest rates that banks pay and charge
which are currently set administratively at 8% and 13% per annum
respectively.
Decision- A Board of Directors is to be the CBMs ultimate internal decision-making
Making Process
body. Chaired by the Governor of the CBM, it will comprise nine members. Four of these (the CBM Governor and three newly-created
Deputy Governor positions) will be from within the CBM itself, the
other five being external professional experts selected by the
government, and approved by the Parliament
- Deputy Ministers of the both the Departments of Finance and Revenue
as well as National Planning and Economic Development are
permitted to attend the monthly meetings of the Board of the CBM,
but are not permitted to play a role in its deliberations
Major Monetary Policy Decisions and Updates (July 2014)
Policy
- With the passage of the CBM Law in July 2013, the central bank has
Reponses
been given the mandate to maintain price stability. The CBM has
already begun to implement reserve money targeting through
liquidity forecasting and the conduct of bi-weekly deposit auctions.
The framework will need to be further developed and remains to be
tested.
- Importantly, in line with the efforts to strengthen the independence of
the central bank, CBMs role in financing the deficit has likewise been
falling, as shown by the declining trend of CBM claims on the
government
- Establishing the reserve money framework is crucial for maintaining
price stability, given the high correlation between reserve money and
inflation. In addition to the reserve money targeting, CBM staff are
preparing to present the recalibration of reserve requirements to the
CBM Board of Directors, which will increase banks demand for CBM
balances, raising the leverage of the CBM on the money markets. The
next step is to establish the Treasury bill auction which would pave
the way for further steps toward interest rate liberalization in terms of
lending rates and loan maturities.

81

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted
Assets (%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision)
to Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

20
07

20
08

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

36.
53

31.
53

27.
94

26.
57

24.5
6

22.7
9

N/A

N/A

1.20

1.00

N/A
67.7
3

N/A
65.7
5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

40.
23

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.8
4
N/A
67.
75

2.8
8
N/A
71.
65

1.4
8
N/A
67.
99

1.6
4
N/A
67.
39

1.5
8
N/A
64.
63

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
This data series refers to Capital Adequacy Ratio according to the authorities definition.
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions). Loans are classified as non-performing after
six months of non-payment.
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

82

20
14

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES14
Availabilit
y(i)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

Timeliness
(ii)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

14 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Myanmar.

83

THE PHILIPPINES
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

31.
3

32.6

30.1

27.0

24.1

21.5

21.5

21.2

21.
0

18.
6

9.0

10.1

9.3

10.1

13.5

13.2

11.9

Current Account Balance (% of


GDP) 3/

5.4

0.1

5.0

3.6

2.5

2.8

3.8

3.1

4.4

Foreign Reserves (in months of


imports) 4/

6.7

6.4

9.2

10.4

11.6

11.5

11.6

10.9

11.0

Indicators

20
07

20
08

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/

37.
1

Gross Short-term External Debt


(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers). Current account surpluses are attributed
to strong remittance flows from Filipinos abroad.
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

84

20
14

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators
Revenue (% of GDP) 1/
Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/
Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 5/

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

16.2

14.6

13.4

14.0

14.5

14.9

16.7

17.1

18.5

16.9

16.0

16.8

16.3

-0.2

-0.9

-3.9

-3.5

-2.0

-2.3

-1.4

3.9

2.7

-0.3

-0.2

0.8

0.7

1.4

60.9

56.9

57.2

52.4

50.9

51.4

49.2

2007

2008

16.5

Notes: Fiscal year starts with April and ends in March in the following year.
1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.
Sources: National authorities.

85

2014

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

20
07

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-onyear) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-onyear) 3/

2Q
14

2.9

8.3

4.2

3.8

4.6

3.2

3.0

4.1

4.4

2.9

5.8

4.2

3.6

4.3

3.7

2.9

3.0

3.0

15.
5

10.
1

9.9

10.
0

7.1

9.4

31.
8

35.3

23.3

8.3

20.
5

10.
0

8.9

19.
3

16.
2

16.
4

20.0

20.1

Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)


4/

20
20
20
20
20
20
1Q
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Please see the following page (Table 4)

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

86

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Monetary Policy Framework
Objective
According to the New Central Bank Act (Republic Act 7653), which was
signed into law on 14 June 1993 and became effective on 3 July 1993, the
primary objective of the BSPs monetary policy is to promote price stability
conducive to a balanced and sustainable growth of the economy.
Regime

The BSP formally adopted inflation targeting as the framework of


monetary policy in January 2002. The National Government through the
Development Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC), an inter-agency body
responsible for setting the annual government targets for macroeconomic
variables sets the inflation target in consultation with the BSP.

In November 2012, the DBCC set the inflation target at 4.0 1.0 percent
for 2013-2014 and 3.0 1.0 percent for 2015-2016.
Instrumen
Open market operations: Open Market Operations consist of repurchase
(RP) and reverse repurchase (RRP) transactions, outright transactions, and
ts
foreign exchange swap. The interest rates for the overnight RRP and RP
facilities signal the monetary policy stance and serve as the BSPs primary
monetary instruments.

Acceptance of fixed-term deposits: The Special Deposit Accounts (SDA)


facility was introduced in November 1998 to enable the BSP to expand its
toolkit in liquidity management. The SDA facility consists of fixed-term
deposits by banks and by trust entities of banks and non-bank financial
institutions with the BSP.

Standing facilities: The BSP extends discounts, loans and advances to


banking institutions in order to influence the volume of credit in the financial
system. Through rediscounting facility, a financial institution is allowed to
borrow money from the BSP using promissory notes and other loan papers of
its borrowers as collateral.

Reserve requirements: Banks are required to keep a certain percent of


their deposits and deposit substitute liabilities. The required reserves may be
kept in the form of deposits with the BSP and government securities.
Decision-
The power and function of the BSP are exercised by its Monetary Board
(MB), consisting of the BSP Governor as the Chairman, one member from the
Making
Cabinet, and five members from the private sector. All MB members are
Process
appointed by the President of the Philippines.

Starting in 2012, the Monetary Board has held monetary policy meetings
eight times a year with meeting intervals of six to eight weeks to deliberate,
discuss, and decide on the appropriate monetary policy stance of the BSP in
order to keep inflation within the target.
Major Monetary Policy Decisions and Updates

BSP raised the reserve requirements for banks (except rural banks) and non-banks
with quasi banking functions (NBQBs) by one percentage point effective on 30 May 2014
to help guard against financial stability risks that could arise from the continued strong
domestic liquidity growth and rapid credit expansion. This followed an earlier one
percentage point increase in reserve requirements effective on 11 April 2014.

BSP increased the interest rate on the Special Deposit Account (SDA) by 25 bps to
2.25 percent on 19 June 2014 and by 25 bps to 2.5 percent on 11 September 2014 to
help mitigate potential price and financial stability risks emanating from ample liquidity.

BSP increased key policy rates by 25 basis points on 31 July 2014 and by 25 basis
points on 11 September 2014 for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP)
facility and for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility as a preemptive

87

response to signs of inflation pressures, increased risk to the achievement of inflation


target, particularly for 2015, and elevated inflation expectations as well as a preemptive
measures to the financial system stability risks.
The Monetary Board paused the policy rate hike in October 2014 as the latest
baseline projections indicated that inflation would be within the target for the policy
horizon.

88

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets
(%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
(%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans
(%, optional) 6/

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
14

14.
6

15.
5

16.
7

17.
1

17.
8

17.
0

15.4

15.4

4.7

8.3

5.7

4.3

3.8

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.0

4.9

3.9

3.5

3.4

2.6

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.4

1.3

0.9

1.4

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.5

67.
8

66.
5

63.
6

61.
9

71.
9

74.
8

67.
7

69.2

70.4

5.6

5.7

6.6

6.2

6.4

6.9

7.1

7.1

7.3

20
07

20
08

14.
7

3Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

Sources: National authorities.

89

4Q
14

201
4

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES15
ERPD Matrix Indicators
I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)
II/ Fiscal Policy
Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Availabilit
y(i)

Timeliness

(ii)

Other Issues,
if Any(iii)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

15 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of the Philippines.

90

SINGAPORE
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
1
4

49
9.8

45
1.9

42
4.5

42
9.4

41
4.9

43
6.4

43
9.2

44
2.9

49
0.8

43
5.6

39
1.9

38
2.4

37
6.3

36
7.8

37
0.9

37
8.5

38
0.9

Current Account Balance


(% of GDP) 3/

26.
0

14.
4

16.
8

23.
7

22.
8

17.
5

18.
3

17.
5

20.
1

Foreign Reserves (in


months of imports) 4/

7.4

6.6

9.2

8.7

7.8

8.2

8.8

8.7

8.8

Indicators

20
07

20
08

Gross External Debt (% of


GDP) 1/

49
0.3

Gross Short-term External


Debt
(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

3Q
14

4Q
14

20
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

91

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


FY08/
09

FY09/
10

FY10/
11

FY11/
12

FY12/
13

FY13/
14

15.5

17.0

15.9

16.2

17.0

17.6

17.2

12.7

16.9

16.1

15.9

15.8

16.0

16.2

Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/

2.8

0.1

-0.3

0.3

1.2

1.6

1.0

Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/

2.8

0.1

-0.3

0.3

1.2

1.6

1.0

86.3

93.9

104.2

99.6

102.7

107.4

104.7

Indicators

FY07/
08

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/
Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/

Central Government Debt (% of


GDP) 5/ 6/

FY14/
15

Notes: Fiscal year starts with April and ends in March in the following year.
1/ Revenue = Tax revenue + Fees and Charges + Others + Net Investment Returns
2/ Expenditure = Operating Expenditure + Development Expenditure + Special Transfers
including Top-ups to Endowment and Trust Funds.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance+ Debt service. Debt service is zero, according to
Singaporean authority.
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt. The debt ratio is based on the calendar year since the central
government debt numbers are as at end of the calendar year.
6/ Singapore Government borrowings are not for spending. Singapore Government
Securities (SGS) are issued to develop the domestic debt market and Special Singapore
Government Securities (SSGS) are issued specifically to meet the investment needs of
the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Board.
7/ FY13/14 numbers are revised budget estimates

Sources: National authorities.

92

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


200
7

200
8

1/

2.1

6.6

0.6

2.8

5.2

4.6

2.4

1.0

2.4

Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,


optional) 2/

2.2

5.7

0.0

1.5

2.2

2.5

1.7

2.0

2.2

13.4

12.0

11.3

8.6

10.0

7.2

4.3

2.0

0.6

19.9

16.6

3.4

14.7

30.3

16.7

17.0

13.5

12.3

Indicators
Monetary Policy Framework

200
201
201
201
201 1Q1
9
0
1
2
3
4
Please see the following page (Table 4)

2Q
14

3Q
14

4Q
14

Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)

Money Growth (%, year-on-year) 3/


Credit Growth (%, year-on-year) 4/

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ The MAS Core Inflation Index is an exclusion-based measure which removes the costs of
private road transport and accommodation as these components are volatile and
significantly influenced by administrative policies.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

93

201
4

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Monetary Policy Framework
Objective
Price stability: The primary objective of the Monetary Authority of
Singapore (MAS) is promoting medium term price stability as a sound basis
for sustainable economic growth.
Regime
Since 1981, monetary policy in Singapore has been centered on the
management of the exchange rate. There are 4 main features of the exchange
rate system in Singapore:

The Singapore dollar is managed against a basket of currencies of


major trading partners and competitors. The various currencies are given
different weights depending on the extent of trade dependence with that
particular country.

MAS operates a managed float regime for the Singapore dollar,


wherein the trade-weighted exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate within a
policy band. If the exchange rate moves outside the band, MAS will usually
step in, either buying or selling foreign exchange so as to steer the exchange
rate back within the band.

The exchange rate policy band is periodically reviewed to ensure that


it remains consistent with the underlying fundamentals of the economy.

By setting the exchange rate as the intermediate target, this implies that
MAS cedes control over domestic interest rates.
Policy

Policy Rate: MAS cedes control over domestic interest rates. In the
Rate
context of free movement of capital, interest rates in Singapore are
determined to a large extent by foreign interest rates and investor
expectations of future movements in the S$. (domestic interest rates have
typically been lower than US interest rates, and reflect market expectations
of an appreciation of the S$)
Instrume MAS releases a Monetary Policy Statement two times a year, one in April
nts
and the other in October of each year. MAS sets operating targets for the
S$ NEER, expressed in the form of the level, slope and width of the policy
band.
MAS may tighten monetary policy by re-centering the exchange rate
policy band upwards (thereby appreciating the level of the exchange rate). A
signal of tightening is also when the policy band is kept on a modest and
gradual appreciating path (slope of S$ NEER appreciation). (Note: For
loosening monetary policy, the reverse is true).
MAS may also adjust the policy band at a wider or narrower setting
depending on the amount of volatility in the exchange rate it is willing to
accommodate.
Major Policy Responses and Updates (2014)
Unchanged: On 14 Apr 2014, MAS maintained the modest and gradual
appreciation path of the S$NEER policy band, with no change (compared to Oct
2013) to its slope, width, and the level at which it was centered.

94

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted
Assets (%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

201
3

1Q
14

14.
7

17.
3

18.
6

16.
0

18.
1

16.
4

16.1

N/A

7.2

8.5

6.0

5.4

4.9

5.1

4.6

N/A

1.4

2.0

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

N/A

0.9

1.3

1.4

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.4

73.
0

80.
2

76.
7

85.
1

95.
4

98.
8

108
.3

110.
7

15.
4

14.
8

16.
7

18.
0

16.
9

17.
6

16.
1

15.7

20
07

20
08

N/A

2Q
14

3Q
14

4Q
14

16.8

4.5
0.8
1.3
113.
7
15.6

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions) for the local banking groups. In the case of
Singapore, the authorities also provide an alternative ratio - Classified Exposures to Total
Exposures, which is calculated as the ratio of the value of classified exposures to total
value of total exposure (including Pass, Special mention and Classified exposures and
before the deduction of specific loan loss provisions) for the Singapore banking system.

Indicators
Classified Exposures as
a Share
of Total Exposures (%)

200
7

200
8

N/A

N/A

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q1
4

1.38

1.03

0.80

0.76

0.83

0.79

2Q1
4
0.75

4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.

95

20
14

Sources: National authorities.

96

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES16
Availabilit
y(i)

Timelines
s(ii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)

III/ Monetary Policy


Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and


Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital
(%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

16 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Singapore.

97

98

THAILAND
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

31.4

28.8

35.2

33.7

38.0

38.1

38.1

38.8

38.9

30.3

23.9

29.4

27.0

32.0

35.8

35.9

36.5

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)


3/

6.3

0.7

8.4

3.1

2.6

-0.4

-0.5

8.8

0.6

Foreign Reserves (in months of


imports) 4/

8.4

8.4

14.1

12.8

10.4

9.9

9.2

9.6

9.9

Indicators

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/


Gross Short-term External Debt
(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

200
7

200
8

35.4

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities). Gross external debt is actual for the
quarter, GDP used is a 3-yr moving average.
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less. Gross s-t ex. debt is actual for the quarter, as are FX reserves
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers). (both GDP and current account are of the
current year or quarter).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average). Import is monthly average taken from a 1year moving average

Sources: National authorities.

99

201
4

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators

FY20
07
17.4

FY20
08
16.9

Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/

19.0

Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/


Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Central Government Debt (% of
GDP) 5/

Revenue (% of GDP) 1/

FY20
09

FY20
10

FY20
11

FY20
12

FY201
3

15.9

17.2

17.7

18.2

18.3

17.9

21.7

18.0

20.4

21.1

20.3

-1.6

-1.0

-5.7

-0.8

-2.7

-2.9

2.0

0.3

0.8

-3.7

1.2

-0.6

-1.3

-0.6

24.7

23.6

29.2

29.3

29.8

32.4

31.9

FY201
4

Notes: Fiscal year starts one quarter earlier than the calendar year, i.e. on 1st October of
the preceding year, and ends in end-September of that year. For instance, FY 2013 runs
from October 2012-September 2013.

1/ Revenue = Tax + Non-Tax Revenue. (Total Revenue Collected by Government, from FPO
Fiscal Cash Balance data)
2/ Expenditure = Current Expenditure + Capital Expenditure. (Expenditure, current year
plus carry over, from FPO Fiscal Cash Balance data)
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue Expenditure.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Debt Service. (Debt service data are Budget
payment for principal, interest, and fee, from PDMO).
5/ Central Government Debt = Domestic Central Government Debt + Foreign Central
Government Debt.

Sources: National authorities.

100

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

20
07

Monetary Policy Framework


Headline Inflation (%, year-onyear) 1/
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,
optional) 2/
Money Growth (%, year-onyear) 3/
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
4/

20
08

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
14

3Q
14

4Q
14

Please see the following page (Table 4)


2.2

5.5

-0.8

3.3

3.8

3.0

2.2

2.0

2.5

1.1

2.3

0.3

0.9

2.4

2.1

1.0

1.2

1.7

6.3

9.2

6.8

4.4

-1.7

10.
4
13.
7

6.4

11.
4

15.
1
15.
0

7.3

2.5

10.
9
11.
4

11.
0

9.8

7.3

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation. Data for inflation are the average of monthly yoy inflation for that period.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country. Data for inflation are the average of monthly yoy inflation for that period.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country. It refers to Broad Money in the case of Thailand.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

101

20
14

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES

Objective

Regime

Policy

Rate
Instrume
nts

Monetary Policy Framework


Price stability: The main objective of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is to
ensure price stability in the economy, which is defined as low and stable
inflation. The MPC sets monetary policy with the objective to support
sustainable and full potential economic growth, without causing inflationary
problems or economic and financial imbalances or bubbles.
Inflation targeting: On December 4, 2013, the MPC and the Minister of
Finance signed a Memorandum of Understanding to continue using the quarterly
average core inflation with the range of 0.5-3.0 percent as monetary policy
target for 2014. However, due to the dissolution of parliament on December 9,
2013, approval of the proposed target must come from the new Cabinet which
is yet to be established. In the meantime, the MPC shall continue to use the old
monetary
policy
target
until
formal
approval
can
be
sought.
The Monetary Policy Committee: Under the Bank of Thailand Act, the
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comprises the Governor and two deputy
Governors, as well as four external members.
Approximately every 6 weeks (8 times a year), the MPC meets to assess the
economic and financial conditions as well as the risk factors that may affect
future inflation and economic growth in its consideration of the monetary
policy direction.
Policy Rate: The MPC utilizes the 1-day bilateral repurchase transaction
rate as the key policy rate to signal the monetary policy stance.

Monetary Policy Communication: The MPC arranges many forms of


communication, including (1) organizing a press statement at 14.00 hrs. on the
day of meetings, (2) publishing Minutes of the MPC meeting two weeks after the
meeting, and (3) publishing the Monetary Policy Report every quarter.

The BOTs operational framework consists of a set of instruments which


can be classified into three categories:
1.
Reserve Requirements: Commercial banks are required to maintain a
minimum reserves on average over a fortnightly period, (starting on a
Wednesday and ending on a second Tuesday thereafter, consistent with MPC
meeting rounds) with carry-over provisions, equaled to a specified
percentage of the previous period's average level of commercial banks'
deposits/liabilities base.
2.
Open Market Operations (OMOs): The BOT undertakes transactions
in financial markets to affect the aggregate level of reserves balances
(financial institutions deposits at the BOT) in the banking system, and in turn
short-term market interest rates. OMOs are the primary instrument used to
maintain the policy rate, while ensuring that there is sufficient liquidity in the
banking system to satisfy banks demand for required reserves and
settlement balances. The BOT employs four main types of open market
operations: 1) Bilateral Repurchase Operations (BRP); 2) Issuance of Bank of
Thailand bills/bonds; 3) Foreign Exchange Swap; 4) Outright Purchase/Sale of
Debt Securities
3.
Standing Facilities: The BOT provides standing facilities, through
which financial institutions can borrow from (by pledging eligible
securities as collateral) or deposit funds at the BOT overnight to help adjust
their liquidity position at the end of the day.
Major Policy Responses and Updates (2013)

102

Policy rate cut: The policy rate was cut by 25 bps on 12 March 2014 (from 2.25 to
2.00) and has been held at 2.00% in subsequent meetings on 23 April 2014, 18
June, 6 August 2014, 17 September 2014, and November 5.

103

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted
Assets (%) 1/
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross
Loans (%) 3/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 4/
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 5/
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 6/

20
09

20
10

20
11

20
12

20
13

1Q
14

2Q
14

16.
1
17.
0

16.
2
12.
1

15.
2

16.
3

15.
7

15.5

15.9

9.2

6.9

6.7

7.3

7.2

5.2

4.8

3.6

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.2

2.3

0.6
86.
6

1.4
88.
3

1.3
85.
8

1.5
88.
3

1.5
89.
9

1.5
93.
1

1.7
96.
6

1.5

1.8

95.9

97.9

12.
1

11.
5

12.
3

16.
1

15.
2

15.
0

15.
2

15.4

15.7

20
07
15.
4
25.
1

20
08
14.
1
20.
0

7.1

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
Refers to all commercial banks.
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves. Refers to net
NPLs to total regulatory capital of commercial banks.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions). NPLs are gross NPLs, and refers to commercial
banks.
4/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial). ROA = Net
Profit/Average Assets, where average assets is calculated as "Total Assets Claims on
securities Customers' liabilities under acceptances), new data series begins in 2008
5/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits). L to D ratio used includes bills of exchange (B/E) to the
deposit base but excludes interbank borrowing and lending.
6/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions. Refers to
housing loans, for all financial institutions (includes commercial banks, specialized
depository institutions (SFIs) and other financial institutions). Data during 2007 - 2009
do not include SFIs.
Sources: National authorities.

104

20
14

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES17
Availabilit
y(i)

Timelines
s(ii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)

III/ Monetary Policy


Monetary Framework and Recent Policy Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)
Money Growth (%, year-on-year)
Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and


Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital
(%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)
Return on Assets (ROA, %)
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%,
optional)

Other
Issues,
if Any(iii)

Notes:
1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the
case of non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have
not been officially computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period
or the latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the
provision of data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be
consisted of, but not limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential
areas of improvements that the authorities could consider for their data provision in the
future.

17 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Thailand.

105

106

VIETNAM
TABLE 1: EXTERNAL POSITION AND MARKET ACCESS
200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

33.
4

38.8

38.9

37.9

37.4

37.3

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

53.4

47.8

22.8

33.4

N/A

N/A

Current Account Balance (% of


GDP) 3/

10.
0

11.
1

-6.6

-3.9

0.2

5.9

5.5

7.6

6.4

Foreign Reserves (in months of


imports) 4/

4.5

3.6

2.7

1.8

1.6

3.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

Indicators

20
07

20
08

Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1/

32.
5

Gross Short-term External Debt


(% of Foreign Reserves) 2/

3Q
14

4Q
14

Notes:
1/ Gross External Debt = current liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of the
economy = external debt of general government + monetary authority + banks + other
sectors. (nb: not including contingent liabilities).
2/ Gross Short-Term External Debt = external debt with (original) maturity of one year or
less.
3/ Current Account Balance = net exports of goods and services + net primary income +
net secondary income (net current transfers).
4/ Foreign Reserves = months of import cover of foreign reserves = foreign reserves /
monthly import value (12-month average).

Sources: National authorities.

107

20
14

TABLE 2: FISCAL POLICY


Indicators
Revenue (% of GDP) 1/
Expenditure (% of GDP) 2/
Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3/
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 4/
Public Debt (% GDP 5/)

200
7

200
8

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

34.6

33.9

34.8

36.0

34.6

32.0

22.9

34.1

34.0

36.6

36.5

34.3

34.1

26.8

-1.6

-1.7

-3.4

-2.2

-1.1

-3.4

-3.9

-0.6

-0.6

-2.3

-1.0

-0.04

-2.1

-2.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

51.7

50.0

50.8

54.2

201
4

Notes: Data for 2011 and 2012 are not approved by National Assembly. 2013 data is the
first estimate.
1/ Revenue = Tax and Fees + Capital Revenues + Grants + Investment Mobilizations
(under Article 8, Clause 3, State Budget Law) + Brought Forward Revenue.
2/ Expenditure = Investment and development expenditure + Current expenditures
+Brought forward expenditure.
3/ Overall Balance = Revenue - Expenditure - Difference of revenue and expenditure of
Local Budget.
4/ Primary Balance = Overall Balance + Interest Payment.
5/ Public debt = Central Government Debt + Government-guaranteed Debt + Local Debt. It
follows the definition of Public Debt Management Law in 2009 and the figures are
provided by the Vietnam Authorities and available since 2010.
Sources: National authorities.

108

TABLE 3: MONETARY POLICY


Indicators

200
7

200
8

Monetary Policy Framework

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

8.3

23.
1

7.0

9.2

18.
6

9.3

6.6

Core Inflation (%, year-on-year,


optional) 2/

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

46.
1

20.
3

29.
0

33.
3

12.
1

18.
5

18.
8

17.7
6

18.4
9

53.
9

25.
4

39.
6

32.
4

14.
3

8.8

12.
7

12.0
2

11.0
3

Money Growth (%, year-on-year)

Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)


4/

4Q
14

Please see the following page (Table 4)

Headline Inflation (%, year-onyear) 1/

3/

3Q
14

4.8

4.8

Notes:
1/ Headline Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of Consumer Price Index
(CPI). Annual headline inflation is calculated as the average of monthly year-on-year
inflation.
2/ Core Inflation is defined as the percentage change in the CPI excluding volatile prices,
typically food, energy, and administrative prices. Annual core inflation is calculated as
the average of monthly year on year core inflation. This definition may vary country to
country. Vietnam has not consolidated the core inflation data and thus not publicized
this data.
3/ Annual money growth is generally based on end of calendar year's M2 which is defined
as currency in circulation and deposits. M3 is defined as M2 plus deposits at
institutions that are not banks. These definitions of M2 and M3 may vary country to
country.
4/ Credit is generally defined as "total outstanding domestic bank loans excluding those to
financial institutions. Inter-bank loans as well as loans used for off-shore are excluded
as possible. Alternatively, for an economy of which full set of bank loan data is not
available, "domestic claims to private sector by depository corporations excluding
central bank" is used following to IMF MFSM 2000. Annual credit growth is calculated
based on the end of the calendar year.

Sources: National authorities.

109

201
4

TABLE 4: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK AND RECENT POLICY


RESPONSES
Objectiv
e

Regime

Instrume
nts

Policy Framework
According to Law No. 46/2010/QH12 on the State Bank of Vietnam in 2010, the
overall objective of the monetary policy in Vietnam is to ensure the stability of
the Vietnamese dong, measured by the achievement of an inflation target set
out in a certain period of time (usually on an annual basis).
However, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) seems to be in charge of implementing
multiple objectives for the monetary policy, which include not only the
stability of the Vietnamese dong and financial system but also socio-economic
development objectives (Article 4, Law No. 46/2010/QH2).
Upon the SBVs proposal of annual inflation target, measured by consumer
price index, the Government submits to the National Assembly for approval.
The National Assembly decides/approves the annual inflation target and
supervises the implementation of the national monetary policy.
The Prime Minister and SBV Governor use different monetary tools and
measures in order to achieve the objectives of the monetary policy.
Refinancing: The State Bank shall stipulate and effect the refinancing to credit
institutions in the following forms: (i) Granting loans secured by the pledge of
valuable papers; (ii) Discounting valuable papers; (iii) Other forms.
Interest rates: Major policy rates announced by the SBV include the prime
interest rate, the refinancing rate, and the rediscounting rate. In case abnormal
developments are seen in the monetary market, the SBV shall provide for a
mechanism for regulating interest rates applicable to credit institutions in their
relations with others and their clients and in other credit relations.
Foreign exchange rates: The SBV announces the average interbank exchange
rate (reference rate) for the interbank market and other transactions as well as
the band within which the exchange rate for transactions could fluctuate from the
reference rate.
Reserve requirements: Banks and other credit institutions are required to
reserve a certain percent of their deposits at the SBV. The reserve requirement
ratio could vary among different banks and credit institutions, as well as for
different types of deposits (e.g. VND-denominated or USD-denominated), for
different periods of time.
Open market operations (OMOs): The SBV buys or sells valuable papers
from/to commercial banks and other credit institutions in the open markets via
repos and outright transactions. Valuable papers eligible for open market
operations include SBV bills, Treasury notes and bills, government bonds and
government-guaranteed bonds, as well as municipal government bonds.
Other tools, if deemed necessary: The SBV implements some measures of
credit operation in order to overcome difficulties in business activities in
accordance with the Governments policy.

Major Policy Responses and Updates (2013 & 2014)


Policy rate cuts: The SBV in March 2014 cut the refinancing and rediscounting rates by 50
basis points to 6.5 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
Interest rate ceilings lowered: The SBV in March and October 2014 decreased the
deposit rate caps for short-term VND-and USD-denominated deposits, by a total of 150
basis points and 50 basis points, [to 5.5 percent and 0.75 percent] respectively.
Reference VND/USD rate adjustments: The SBV increased the reference VND/USD rate

110

by one percent from VND 21,036 to VND21,246 per 1USD in June 2014, following another
one-percent hike one year earlier, reportedly to enhance the competitiveness of the
Vietnamese exports given the relatively stable inflation environment.

111

TABLE 5: FINANCIAL SECTOR SOUNDNESS AND SUPERVISION


Indicators

200
9

201
0

201
1

201
2

201
3

1Q
14

2Q
14

14.
26

12.
50

11.
83

11.
84

13.
75

13.
25

13.2
4

12.9
4

N/A

6.9
2

8.0
2

8.3
4

8.8
3

15.
40

13.
16

N/A

2.1
3

1.9
9

2.1
6

3.0
6

4.0
8

N/A

1.0
0

0.9
7

0.9
2

1.0
0

N/A

85.
93

92.
92

88.
66

89.
65

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

20
07

200
8

Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets


(%) 1/

N/A

Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to


Capital (%) 2/
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
(%) 3/ 4/
Return on Assets (ROA, %) 5/

Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %) 6/


Residential Real Estate Loans to Total
Loans
(%, optional) 7/

N/A

14.1
4

3.6
1

3.93

0.4
0

0.4
9

0.17

84.
40

78.
49

77.1
2

N/A

N/A

N/A

3Q
14

19.0
0
4.17

0.36
77.0
6
N/A

Notes:
1/ Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets is calculated as the ratio of aggregated
regulatory capital to aggregated risk-weighted assets (following the Basel Guidelines).
2/ Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to Capital is the ratio of value of non-performing
loans less the value of specific loan provisions to total capital and reserves.
3/ Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans is calculated as the ratio of the value of nonperforming loans to total value of the loan portfolio (including NPLs, and before the
deduction of specific loan loss provisions).
4/ The reported NPL ratio is calculated based on the inputs provided by banks, which might
exclude certain NPLs restructured via the State Bank of Vietnams Decision 780 in 2012.
According to the SBV, if prudently calculated, the actual NPL to total gross loans ratio
could be about 9.71% as of end 2013.
5/ Return on Assets is calculated as the ratio of net income before extraordinary items and
taxes to average value of total assets (financial and non-financial).
6/ Loan to Deposit Ratio is calculated as the ratio of total loans to total deposits (noninterbank loans and deposits).
7/ Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans is calculated as the ratio of outstanding
residential real estate loans to outstanding loans of depository institutions.
Sources: National authorities.

112

4Q
14

20
14

TABLE 6: DATA ADEQUACY PRIMARY EVALUATION BASED ON ERPD


MATRICES18
Availabili
ty(i)

ERPD Matrix Indicators


I/ External Position and Market Access
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)
Gross Short-term External Debt (% of Foreign
Reserves)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

Timelines
(ii)

Other Issues,
if Any(iii)

II/ Fiscal Policy


Revenue (% of GDP)
Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
III/ Monetary Policy
Monetary Framework and Recent Policy
Responses
Headline Inflation (%, year-on-year)
Core Inflation (%, year-on-year, optional)

Data have not been


consolidated and
publicized by the
authorities.

Money Growth (%, year-on-year)


Credit Growth (%, year-on-year)
IV/ Financial Sector Soundness and
Supervision
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%)
Non-Performing Loans (net provision) to
Capital (%)
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (%)

Return on Assets (ROA, %)


Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD, %)
Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans
(%, optional)

The State Bank of


Vietnam also releases
some prudentlycalculated NPL data,
which show a gap
with the officiallyreported figures.

Notes:

18 Secondary evaluation based on AMRO Economic Reports is separately provided in AMROs November 2014 surveillance
report of Vietnam.

113

1/ Data availability indicates if the data are available for provision by the authorities. In the case of
non-available data, the data might be either non-existent or existent but have not been officially
computed or provided by the authorities.
2/ Data timeliness indicates how up-to-date the data have been as of the assessing period or the
latest data point provided by the authorities to AMRO by the time of assessment.
3/ Other issues, if any, refer to any issues that might be related to the assessment of the provision of
data and information of the four above EPRD Matrix areas, which could be consisted of, but not
limited to, the consistency and accuracy of the data, and potential areas of improvements that the
authorities could consider for their data provision in the future.

114

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