Professional Documents
Culture Documents
05 November 2014
Presentation Outline
Introduction (see Section 1 in the paper)
(definition and explanation of the problem)
Literature Review (see Section 2)
Experimental Proposed Model (see Section 3)
Experimental Application (see Section 3)
Conclusion, Discussion, and Future Work (see Section 4)
Questions, Comments, Feedback, and Concerns
Introduction
When the historical electricity consumption data of Turkey is taken and analyzed, the
approximately steady increase (except 2009) in the overall electricity consumption in
Turkey is very easily observed since 2003 (data from [1]) as presented in Table 1.
Table 1. The electricity consumption (TWh: terawatt hour) in the Turkish Electricity System
between 20032012 (Data: [1]) (visit [2] for unit of electric energy).
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Consumption (TWh)
141
150
161
175
190
198
194
210
230
242
After observing and understanding this reality on the electricity consumption situation,
the Turkish government and the Turkish people (of course the experts in this field) have
searched and investigated new ways to increase the amount of the electricity generation
in Turkey.
References
1. Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation; Research, Planning and Coordination Department: The Turkish Electrical
Energy 5 Year Generation Capacity Projection 20132017 Report. Ankara, Turkey (2013).
2. Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation Inc., http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilowatt_hour
Introduction
It has been very well examined, recognized and understood that the public investments
and the public investment models by the Turkish government and the Turkish people can't
reach the speed and acceleration of the electricity consumption in Turkey. Hence, new
investment schemes and models in Turkey have been specifically studied for the Turkish
electricity generation sector. One of the important and applicable recommendations in this
subject has been several times made as to give the opportunity and freedom to the private
investors to invest in the electricity generation sector in Turkey. After the definition and
the declaration of the legal scope for the private investments in the electricity generation
sector in Turkey, the private investors (domestic and foreign investors) have tried to find
the most appropriate and satisfactory hydropower plant investments for themselves.
In this respect, the mini hydropower plant (MHPP) investments (MHPPIs) (0,1 Megawatt
< Installed Capacity 1 Megawatt), that need to be investigated according to its own
characteristics, have been studied by mostly the domestic/local private investors in
Turkey.
Introduction
A typical MHPP with its structural
elements in a countryside is
presented in Figure 1 for better
explanation of the MHPPs and the
whole system approach and view. It
is also very worth mentioning that
these MHPPs are very effective and
efficient in the stand-alone, remote
area and off-grid power system and
very helpful for the rural
development.
Fig. 1. Main components of MHPP scheme in a countryside (drawn, redrawn, generated and regenerated based on [3])
References
3. Mini Hydro Power Basics: w3.tm.tue.nl/fileadmin/tm/TDO/Indonesie/Hydro_Power.pdf
Introduction
There are several business models, that can easily be applied in these MHPPIs. For
instance, a small village and its own community can have a MHPP for their electricity
generation proposes by its own in Turkey.
In this study, a Virtual Private Investor (VPI) is designed, proposed and presented to
analyze the available private mini hydropower plant investments (PMHPPIs) in Turkey
by help of an one node Mamdani type fuzzy inference system (FIS) or Mamdani type
fuzzy rule base (FRB) evaluation approach (FRBEA).
Literature Review
A literature review based on the predefined steps of the author's previous studies was
performed on the academic publication online database and journals. Some most
common terms were specifically typed and searched on these database and websites. The
studies found on this literature review were tried to be presented as short as possible in a
summarized way by help of Table 2.
The key terms in the current study were queried as "private mini hydropower plant
investment" and "fuzzy inference system" (A), "private mini hydropower plant
investment" and "Mamdani" (B), "private mini hydropower plant investment" and "fuzzy
logic controller" (C), "private mini hydropower plant investment" and "Scilab" (D),
"private mini hydropower plant investment" and "fuzzy logic toolbox" (E), "mini
hydropower plant investment" and "fuzzy inference system" (F), "mini hydropower plant
investment" and "Mamdani" (G), "mini hydropower plant investment" and "fuzzy logic
controller" (H), "mini hydropower plant investment" and "Scilab" (I), "mini hydropower
plant investment" and "fuzzy logic toolbox" (J),
Literature Review
"mini hydropower plant" and "fuzzy inference system" (K), "mini hydropower plant" and
"Mamdani" (L), "mini hydropower plant" and "fuzzy logic controller" (M), "mini
hydropower plant" and "Scilab" (N), "mini hydropower plant" and "fuzzy logic toolbox"
(O). It was believed that these key terms would be sufficient to present the previous
studies in a detailed, but at the same time with a very narrowed set which had very tight
links between all of the documents (see Table 2).
Literature Review
Table 1. Literature review summary of the current study (database and journals: ACM Digital
Library-ACMDL [4], ASCE Online Research Library-ASCEOR [5], American Society of
Mechanical Engineers-ASME [6], Cambridge Journals Online-CJO [7], Directory of Open
Access Journals-DOAJ [8], Emerald Insight-EI [9], Google Scholar-GS [10], Journal of
Industrial Engineering and Management- JIEM [11], Science Direct-SD [12], Springer-S [13],
Taylor & Francis Online/Journals-TFJ [14], Wiley-Blackwell/Wiley Online Library-WB [15],
World Scientific Publishing-WSP [16]) .
A
ACMDL
ASCEOR
ASME
CJO
DOAJ
EI
GS
1*
JIEM
SD
TFJ
WB
WSP
st
Note: * Irrelevant (not relevant) document. (final date of the review: 01 October 2014)
Literature Review
There was only one document found on these academic publication online database and
journals. This one document also was not relevant with the current study, because the key
terms had been seen in different sections of the document in the preview form. In addition
to this situation, the full version of the document could not be accessible or reachable in
Istanbul, Turkey due to the problems encountered by the website.
This detailed literature review showed that this subject had not most probably been
studied by the researchers or any publications on this subject had not been gone to press
until 01st October 2014. Under these circumstances, this study would be one of the first
studies that presented an one node Mamdani type fuzzy rule base evaluation approach for
the selection classification of the private mini hydropower plant investments in the very
early investment stages in Turkey.
Knowledge Base
Input
(Crisp)
Data Base
Fuzzification Interface
or
Fuzzifier
Output
(Crisp)
Rule Base
Inference System
or
Decision Making Unit
Defuzzification Interface
or
Defuzzifier
17.Kumar, S., Narula, P., Ahmed, T., Knowledge extraction from numerical data for the Mamdani type fuzzy systems: a BBO approach. In: Innovative
Practices in Management and Information Technology for Excellence, Jagadhri, India. (2010).
(http://embeddedlab.csuohio.edu/BBO/BBO_Papers/Knowledge%20Extraction.pdf)
18.Noor, N.M.M., Retnowardhani, A.: An Integrated Framework Of Decision Support System In Crime Prevention, In: DSS 2.0 Supporting Decision Making
with New Technologies, 17th conference for IFIP WG8.3 DSS, 2-5 June 2014, Paris, France (2014).
(http://dss20conference.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/noor.pdf)
19.Keshwani, D.R., Jones, D.D., Meyer, G.E., Brand, R.M.: Rule-based Mamdani-type fuzzy modeling of skin permeability, Biological Systems Engineering:
Papers and Publications. Paper 80. (2008). http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/biosysengfacpub/80
An Experimental Case Study On The Fuzzy Logic Modeling For The
20.
Selection Classification Of The Private Mini Hydropower Plant
References
2. Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation Inc., http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilowatt_hour
(1)
References
25. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Organization, http://ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml
References
26. Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation Inc., http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celsius
27. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science
Basis, http://ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-10-8.html
An Experimental Case Study On The Fuzzy Logic Modeling For The
Burak Omer Saracoglu
Selection Classification Of The Private Mini Hydropower Plant
Investments In The Very Early Investment Stages In Turkey
burakomersaracoglu@hotmail.com
References
32. Likert, R.: A Technique For The Measurement Of Attitudes. Archives Of Psychology, No: 140, New York, USA. (1932)
33. Zadeh, L.A.: A Fuzzy-Set-Theoretic Interpretation of Linguistic Hedges. Journal of Cybernetics, Vol: 2, Issue: 3, pp.434.
(1972)
34. Mamdani, E.H.: Application of fuzzy algorithms for control of simple dynamic plant. Proceedings of the Institution of
Electrical Engineers Vol. 121, Iss. 12, 15851588 (1974).
35.Zadeh, L.A.: Fuzzy sets. Information and Control Vol. 8, 338353 (1965).
Scilab 5.4.1
Fuzzy Toolbox 0.4.6
(install from module manager-ATOMS)
generation
Definitely
Definitely
Normalized
values
Definitely
cost
INPUTs
Definitely
Definitely
Normalized
values
Definitely
Linguistic
Variable
surface temperature
Linguistic
Variable
Definitely
Unselected
Linguistic
Variable
Selected
Normalized
values
OUTPUT
Experimental Application
Fuzzy Toolbox 0.4.6
(install from module manager-ATOMS)
INPUT MEASURES/VARIABLES
O1=0.13
O2=0.845
O3=0.13
O4=0.845
O5=0.845
O6=0.13
O7=0.13
O8=0.845
Experimental Application
Findings Of The Experimental Case Study
Apache
OpenOffice
Microsoft
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0011101100110010101110010011110010010000001101101011101010110001101101000