Impact of CC,

Vulnaribility Assessment,
and Adaptation

Sustainability
ERE 742
School of Natural Resources Engineering and
Management
GJU

Vulnerability
The degree to which a system is susceptible
to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of
CC including climate variability & extremes.
Function

of:

Magnitude,
Rate of change
Sensitivity of the system, and
System adaptive capacity.

CLIMATE
CLIMATE
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY

sustainable development can reduce

vulnerability to climate change
(IPCC 2007 in UNDP 2008)

WHAT IS VULNERABILITY?

Climate Vulnerability =
Biophysical Vulnerability +
Social Vulnerability
GEO-4 (UNEP 2007)

CLIMATE
CLIMATE
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY

Biophysical Vulnerability = the degree to which a [physical]

system is unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change

IPCC

Social Vulnerability = measure of a society to adapt to

hazards

Harsh climate + High exposure

High Physical Risk

SOCIO
SOCIO -- POLITICAL
POLITICAL VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY

= the political component of vulnerability.

Are national adaptation plans applied evenly?
Does political cover extend selectively to some
communities?
How does the marginalisation of a community or
people affect their ability to adapt??
Financial mobility?
Physical mobility?

Non Climatic conditions contributing to

vulnerability
Chronic poverty
Increasing population
Weak institutions and physical infrastructure
Low access to technology and information,
Political and social Instability
Lack of political commitments, access to

resources and management capabilities

High illiteracy rates and lack of skills

Developing Countries Most At Risk

Drought

Flood

Storm

Coastal 1m

Coastal 5m

Agriculture

Malawi

Bangladesh

Philippines

All low-lying Island

States

All low-lying Island

States

Sudan

Ethiopia

China

Bangladesh

Vietnam

Netherlands

Senegal

Zimbabwe

India

Madagascar

Egypt

Japan

Zimbabwe

India

Cambodia

Vietnam

Tunisia

Bangladesh

Mali

Mozambique

Mozambique

Moldova

Indonesia

Philippines

Zambia

Niger

Laos

Mongolia

Mauritania

Egypt

Morocco

Mauritania

Pakistan

Haiti

China

Brazil

Niger

Eritrea

Sri Lanka

Samoa

Mexico

Venezuela

India

Sudan

Thailand

Tonga

Myanmar

Senegal

Malawi

Chad

Vietnam

China

Bangladesh

Fiji

Algeria

Kenya

Benin

Honduras

Senegal

Vietnam

Ethiopia

Iran

Rwanda

Fiji

Libya

Denmark

Pakistan

Low Income
Middle Income

Source: World Bank

Resulting Impacts
Food insecurity:
Water Shortages
Sea level rise
Undermined economic development.
Increased poverty,
Etc.

The solution
Development
Climate
Resilient
Climate
Dev
Compatible
Development

Low Carbon
Dev

Mitigation

Climate
Proofing

Adaptation

Framework for mainstreaming CC within development strategies

?

Climate Change

Climate
Change
Factors
Temp Variation
R/Fall Variation
Sea Level rise
Monitoring
Loop

Impact
Analysis

Development

Social and Gender Inclusion

Mainstreaming
Framework

Economic and
Social Systems
Eco Systems
Critical
infrastructure
Natural Hazards
Livelihoods
other

Sector wide planning and

development

Economic and Development Planning

Disaster Management/DRR

Risk Database
NAPA

Early warning systems

Preparedness Planning
Awareness
Relief and Recovery Management

Lessons learned feedback loop

Cross cutting Inputs

(examples):
Knowledge Management
Information Management
Capacity Development
Advocacy and awarenessraising
Policy and Planning

Poverty Reduction and

MDG Goals

Adaptation or Development??
Gap between existing coping capacity and existing/future risk may be so great that
only long term development strategies may have an impact on reducing risk and
vulnerability

CC Future Risk Predictions

Predicted Adaptation Gap

Existing Risk Levels

Existing Adaptation Gap

Existing adaptive/coping capacity

Eroded
Capacity

Adaptation Determinants
Progressive process at several levels simultaneously

from local to national to global;

Support of enabling national policies, regulations and
institutional setups.
Accurate and reliable data
Technical and technological capacity
Financial resources
Institutional setup

ADAPTATION EFFORTS IN THE REGION

Fragmented

efforts at national

levels
No coordinated regional or subregional adaptation approach
Adaptation Gap in the region

Examples of needed adaptation in our region

Water Resources (Has taken a top priority among all

adaptation measures):

The challenge of making an optimal water allocation for a growing number of competing water

management options (e.g. agriculture, public consumption, industry, hydro-energy, ecosystems,

etc.) under a changing climate system places a heavy burden on water managers.

Improve efficiency, develop new water resources.

Food Production: Develop new varieties of crops that can adapt with the
new conditions.

Infrastructure and buildings: Choice of construction materials and

techniques used for buildings, roads, and utility

Biodiversity: develop mechanisms for coordinating conservation actions

across political boundaries and agency jurisdiction.

Human Health: Adapt human health systems and prepare them to respond to
the consequences of climate change,

Addressing adaptation in our region

A coordinated effort of capacity building,

training, research, & development.

A region-wide monitoring program to provide

reliable information for stakeholders and policy

makers.

Plan adaptive integrated climate risk-based

approaches, within relevant policy frameworks.

Conclusions

National and regional strategies and action plans should be

developed and adopted.

National regional early warning systems for forecasts, risk

assessment and monitoring of extreme events should be put in
place.

Development & implementation of integrated regional water

management (ground and surface waters).

Empowerment of communities, particularly women and other

vulnerable groups.

Involving civil societies and private sector

Example of Vulnerability
to CC

The case of Jordan

Background
Climate change
As a country characterized with semi-arid climate,

high dependence on rainfall and scarcity of water

resources, Jordan is one of the countries to be highly
affected with climate change impacts.

Although Jordans emissions of greenhouse gases are

very low, climate change is a threat to Jordan since

the ecosystem productivity and water resources are
highly dependent on the hydrological cycle.

Projected Impacts of Global

Temperature Change
0C
Food

Water

1C

2C

3C

4C

5C

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly

developing regions
Falling yields in many
Possible rising yields in
developed regions
some high latitude regions450 ppm CO2 eq
Small mountain glaciers
disappear water
supplies threatened in
several areas

Significant decreases in water

availability in many areas, including
Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Sea level rise

threatens major cities

Ecosystems
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs

Rising number of species face extinction

650 ppm CO2 eq

Extreme
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Weather
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
Major Irreversible
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes
Source: L. Rudolph, 2008

Findings of Jordans
research on CC
(The Second National Communication, SNC)

21

Vulnerability
The following four sectors were identified

as the Key sectors for vulnaribility in

Jordan by the SNC:
Water

Resources sector
Agriculture sector
Health sector
Socio-economic impacts

22

Climate parameters
Trend Analysis

23

Precipitation trend analysis-19 meteorological stations

8 20% decreasing trends especially in the last 3 decades of the
2nd millennium up to the year 2006 in Irbid, Shoubak, Wadi Dhleil,
Madaba, Amman A/P, Q.A.I.A., Mafraq and Aqaba.
5%, 7% and 10% increasing trends were exhibited since the
1980s up to the year 2006 in Ras Muneef, Al Rabba and
Ruwaished respectively.

24

Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations

Maximum Temperature Trends:
Increasing trends of about 1.0 1.8 C in Baqura, Ghore
Safi, Al-Shoubak, Wadi Dhulail, Safawi and Q.A.I.A.
Increasing trends of about 0.5 0.9 C in Deir Alla, AlRabba, Jordan University, Madaba, Ras Muneef and Al-Jafr.
Insignificant increasing trends of about 3% were found in
Ruwaished, Mafraq and Maan.

25

Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations

Minimum Temperature Trends:
Increasing trends of about 1.0 2.8 C in Deir Alla,
Ghore Safi, Irbed, Wadi Dhulail, Jordan University,
Madaba, Mafraq, Ruwaished, Q.A.I.A. and Al Jafr.
Increasing trends of about 0.4 0.9 C in Al
Shoubak, Aqaba Airport, Ras Muneef, Safawi and
Maan.
The increase in minimum temperature is
obviously greater than the increase in maximum
temperature.

26

Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations

Mean Temperature Trends:

Increasing trends of about 0.8 2.0 C in Ghore
Safi, Al - Shoubak, Wadi Dhulail, Jordan
University, Madaba, Ruwaished, Mafraq, Safawi,
Q.A.I.A., and Al Jafr
Increasing trends of about 0.7 C in Deir Alla.
Insignificant increasing trends of about 0.3 0.6
C in Baqura, Irbed, Ras Muneef and Ma'an.

27

Conclusions - Trend analysis

The majority of stations exhibit decreasing trends in

precipitation. While some other stations exhibit insignificant

increasing trends.
The number of rainy days reveals decreasing trends of
about 3 -10 percent in most of the stations. This has an
adverse impact on the temporal distribution of rainfall over
a season. (Impact on agricultural sector).
When the increasing rainfall amount is accompanied by a
decreasing number of rainy days, the rainfall intensity will
accordingly increase and the probability of recording
extreme values of rainfall will also increase.
The max, min and mean temperatures reveal significant
warming trends at 99 percent confidence level in most of
the stations. The significant warming trends of min
temperature are greater than that of max temperature. As
a result, the mean temperature shows significant warming
trends in all stations.
28

Climate Change
Scenarios

29

Climate Change Scenarios

30

Findings - Climate Change

Scenarios
All the scenarios show an increase in temperature of
less than 2C.
As a rule, warming should be stronger during the
warm months of the year while less warming is
projected to occur in the cold months of the year.
The climate change scenarios for precipitation are
highly variable.

31

Possible impacts of climate changeJordan

Water stress and reduction in the availability of fresh water

due to potential decline in rainfall

Threats to agriculture and food security
Impact on human health due to the increase in vector and

water-borne diseases
Adverse impact on natural ecosystems, such as Jordan Valley,

and coral reefs in Gulf of Aqaba, grasslands and mountain

ecosystems.
32

The Water
Sector

Nov 11, 2009

33

Findings, Water
The vulnerability assessment study presented

in the SNC showed that ZRB and YRB are

vulnerable to climate change.

There

is a strong relationship between

infiltration rates and the amount of rainfall in
Jordan.

Accordingly, less precipitation will lead to

less recharge; and less available water

resources coupled with deterioration of
surface and groundwater quality.
34

Agriculture
Sector

35

Agriculture
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate

change because the available water and land resources are

limited.
Due to urban expansion in the high rainfall zones, rainfed
agriculture had expanded towards the marginal lands of arid
and semiarid areas. Crop failure rate of barley is usually high
and grain is usually obtained in one year out of five.
Results of DSSAT model showed that the increase in rainfall
amount would not compensate for the adverse impacts of the
temperature increase on barley.
Adverse impacts of climate change on rainfed cultivation and
on the arid and semi-arid rangelands were identified as the
most significantly impacting on the livestock sector and the
overall food production in the country
36

Health
Sector
37

Background
Info

38

Climate Change and Health: Pathways

1

Direct
impacts
e.g. heatwaves,
floods, bushfires

Climate
change

Changes to physical
systems/processes
Urban air pollutant formation
Freshwater supplies

2
Indirect
impacts, via
changes to
mediating
systems
and
processes

Changes to biological
processes, timing

3
Social,
economic,
demographic
disruptions

Health
impacts

Mosquito numbers, range

Photosynthetic activity
reduced food yields

Changes to
ecosystem structure
and function
Fisheries: composition, yield
Nutrient cycles
Forest productivity
(McMichael, 2005)

Climate Changes Impacts on Health

HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE
CHANGE

Temperature/Heat
Stress

Heat Stress
Cardiorespiratory failure

Air Pollution

Respiratory diseases, e.g.,

COPD & Asthma

Vector-borne Diseases

Temperature Rise 1
Sea level Rise 2
Hydrologic Extremes

Water-borne Diseases

3C by yr. 2100
40 cm
IPCC estimates
2

Water resources & food

supply

Environmental
Refugees

Malaria
Dengue
Encephalitis
Hantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
Cholera
Cyclospora
Cryptosporidiosis
Campylobacter
Leptospirosis
Malnutrition
Diarrhea
Toxic Red Tides
Forced Migration
Overcrowding
Infectious diseases
Human Conflicts

Vulnerable Populations

Source: Derived from SAP 4.6, Chapter 2

Jordan Health
Vulnerability
to CC

43

Findings - Health
.

General effects on human health of increased

temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns

include: physiological disorders, skin rashes and
dehydration, eye cataracts, and damage of
public health infrastructure, deaths and injuries

The SNC showed a positive correlation between

the rate of some diseases like Diarrhea rate and

the mean monthly temperature

CC may result in changing in transmission of

vector borne diseases

44

Findings - Health
The most important effect of climate change in

Jordan is shortage of water, due to decreasing

rainfall

One of the adaptation measures to cope with

shortage of water is reuse of grey or treated

wastewater in growing some trees or vegetables that
are not consumed without cooking

This adaptation measure increases the opportunity

for transmission of several pathogens through

contamination of crops and could cause outbreaks
like Typhoid fever, Amibiasis, Giardiasis, or Hepatitis
A.
45

The Socio Economic

Vulnerability to CC

46

Findings Socio economic

Shortage of water affects the sanitary conditions in the

households, thus increases some kinds of diseases such

as diarrhea, and the increase of costs of living.

Rain fed farmers are affected by the high temperature

and low rain in their farming practices, thus a decrease in

their income.

Impacts on livestock: availability of rangelands and water,

high prices of fodders, income

47

Recommendations
There is a need to develop a comprehensive multi-sectoral National

Adaptation Action Plan through the participation and engagement of

relevant institutions and stakeholders including ministries of
environment, water, agriculture and health.

This action plan is expected to address all needs in the area of

Vulnerability and to focus on prioritizing the propose programs.

The plan is also expected to identify barriers to implementation of the

adaptation measures and put forward programs, projects and

mechanisms to deal with them.

48

THANK
YOU
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