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Excel based model to check the financial viablity of toll road infrastructure development project(expre
Road,devlelopment cost per km,operation cost per km,vehicle growth,leaverage for project....a
holders,IRR,NPV,Sensitivity Analysis on paramete
Version
Publication Date
Author
Email ID
Table of Content
Modelling Variables,Project Returns,Sensitivity Analysis
Projected Profit and Loss statement
Projected Cash Flow statement,Project IRR,Project NPV
Projected Balance Sheet statement
Loan Schedule with details of all types of loan/bond including zero coupon bonds,subordinated debt
Equity Schedule with details related to equity sponsors cash flows,IRR,NPV..
Depreciation Schedule
Revenue Details
Expenditure Details
Assumptions of Modelling
Limitations
d infrastructure development project(expressway,sea link bridge,underground tunnel...) and financial return for
m,vehicle growth,leaverage for project....and would then project the financial statements for concession period
,IRR,NPV,Sensitivity Analysis on parameters like development cost,interest rate,vehicle growth,toll price..etc.
1.0
16-Jan-12
Manoj Jindal
jindalmanoj06@gmail.com
a link bridge,underground tunnel...) and financial return for stake holders.It takes basic input like length of Toll
then project the financial statements for concession period and construction period,cash flow to equity
elopment cost,interest rate,vehicle growth,toll price..etc.
eturn for stake holders.It takes basic input like length of Toll
on period and construction period,cash flow to equity
ce..etc.
Item
Value
Costing Parameters
Development Cost
Length of Road
Project Cost
Operational Cost
Revenue expenditure
Units
90
60
8400
Crores per Km
Km
Crores
Crores per
year
Capital Parameters
Debt Ratio
Cost of Equity
70.00%
15.00%
Percentage
Percentage
Interest Rate
10.00%
Percentage
10.00%
10.00%
Percentage
Percentage
Sub-ordinated Debt
Percentage
20.00%
Percentage
30.00%
Percentage
10
Years
Moratorium Period
Loan Amortization Period
5
20
years
Years
WACC
9.89%
Percentage
Concession Parameters
Construction Period
Concession Period
Base Year
5
25
2013
years
years
year
Regulatory Parameters
Tax Rate
30.00%
Percentage
Depriciation Method
Assets Salvage Value
SLM
20.00%
SLM/WDM
Percentage
3.20%
Percentage
Depreciation rate
Revenue Parameters
Base Toll price
Toll price
Base vehicle
Vehicle Growth
Display Advertisement
Advertisement Growth
Additional Revenue from other
agencies
Price esclation
PCU
Percentage
Crore
Percentage
Crore
Percentage
Project Returns
Project IRR
12.73%
Percentage
Project NPV
3355.20
Crores
15.29%
Percentage
Sensitivity Analysis
91.45
Crores
Remarks
Cost estimate per km of development
Length of Toll road
Total cost would be equally spread across
construction period
Input
Derived (can
be changed)
per Km
per PCU
Passenger Car Unit,Includes all types of vehicle
(commercial vehicle converted to PCU)
Per year growth of PCU
Along Toll Road
Per year growth
For using infrastructure
Per year(Would be applicable to all revenue and cost
items)
IRR based on project cash flows (revenue expenditure- taxes - capex) and terminal value
NPV based on project cash flows (revenue expenditure- taxes - capex) and terminal value
discounted by WACC
IRR based on equity cash flows (investments dividend) and terminal value
NPV based on equity cash flows (investments dividend) and terminal value discounted at Cost
of equity
Equity
IRR
Change Interest Rate % and Development Cost based on
requirement,it would automatically populate Equity
sponsor IRR.All data inside would turn red which would Interest
Rate
be less than cost of equity
(In %)
Equity
IRR
Change Base Vehicle and its growth based on
requirement,it would automatically populate Equity
sponsor IRR.All data inside would turn red which would
be less than cost of equity
Base
Vehicle
(PCU's)
15.29%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
15.00%
15.29%
120,000
140,000
Base
Vehicle
(PCU's)
Equity
IRR
Change base toll price and concession period (Max 30
-construction period) based on requirement,it would
automatically populate Equity sponsor IRR.All data
inside would turn red which would be less than cost of
equity or could not be calculated
Base Toll
Price
(Currenc
yINR)
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
15.29%
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
Auto
calculate
d
70
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
4.00%
15.29%
15.29%
130
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
140
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
10
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
22
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
24
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
15.29%
Projec
2013
-5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2014
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2015
-3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2016
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2017
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Dividend
Transfer to Reserves
Accumulated
Reserves losses/Profit
Revenue
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Tax
PAT
Accumulated Loss
2019
1
624.2789
129.6
494.6789
192.7129
301.966
419.5569
-117.5909
0
-117.5909
-304.2607
2020
2
714.3245
139.968
574.3565
192.7129
381.6436
419.5569
-37.91323
0
-37.91323
-342.1739
2021
3
817.3808
151.1654
666.2154
192.7129
473.5025
419.5569
53.94561
16.18368
37.76193
-304.412
2022
4
935.3294
163.2587
772.0707
192.7129
579.3578
419.5569
159.801
47.94029
111.8607
-192.5513
2023
5
1070.324
176.3194
894.005
192.7129
701.292
419.5569
281.7352
84.52055
197.2146
0
2024
6
1224.831
190.4249
1034.406
192.7129
841.6934
405.5232
436.1702
130.8511
305.3191
0
2025
7
1401.673
205.6589
1196.014
192.7129
1003.301
391.4895
611.8113
183.5434
428.2679
0
2026
8
1604.08
222.1116
1381.968
192.7129
1189.255
377.4559
811.7991
243.5397
568.2594
0
2027
9
1835.751
239.8806
1595.87
192.7129
1403.157
363.4222
1039.735
311.9205
727.8144
0
2028
10
2100.92
259.071
1841.849
192.7129
1649.136
1470.322
178.814
53.64419
125.1698
0
2029
11
2404.433
279.7967
2124.637
192.7129
1931.924
1456.288
475.6356
142.6907
332.9449
0
2030
12
2751.84
302.1804
2449.659
192.7129
2256.946
1442.254
814.692
244.4076
570.2844
0
2031
13
3149.49
326.3548
2823.135
192.7129
2630.422
1428.221
1202.202
360.6605
841.5412
0
2032
14
3604.655
352.4632
3252.192
192.7129
3059.479
1414.187
1645.292
493.5876
1151.704
0
2033
15
4125.658
380.6603
3744.997
192.7129
3552.284
279.2202
3273.064
981.9193
2291.145
0
568.26 727.81
323.501
323.501
828.2 2291.1
0 125.1698
323.501
2034
16
4722.025
411.1131
4310.912
192.7129
4118.199
265.1866
3853.013
1155.904
2697.109
0
2035
17
5404.664
444.0022
4960.662
192.7129
4767.949
251.1529
4516.796
1355.039
3161.757
0
2036
18
6186.061
479.5223
5706.539
192.7129
5513.826
237.1192
5276.706
1583.012
3693.695
0
2037
19
7080.508
517.8841
6562.624
192.7129
6369.911
223.0856
6146.825
1844.048
4302.778
0
2038
20
8104.367
559.3149
7545.052
192.7129
7352.339
209.0519
7143.287
2142.986
5000.301
0
2039
21
9276.369
604.06
8672.309
192.7129
8479.596
195.0182
8284.578
2485.373
5799.205
0
2040
22
10617.96
652.3848
9965.572
192.7129
9772.859
180.9846
9591.874
2877.562
6714.312
0
2041
23
12153.68
704.5756
11449.1
192.7129
11256.39
166.9509
11089.44
3326.831
7762.605
0
2042
24
13911.63
760.9417
13150.68
192.7129
12957.97
152.9172
12805.05
3841.516
8963.537
0
163.4139
8963.5
0
1419.174
2043
25
Opening Balance
2013
-5
0
2014
-4
0
2015
-3
0
2016
-2
0
Cash Inflows
Revenue
Debt
Equity
0
1176
504
0
1176
504
0
1176
504
0
1176
504
1680
1680
1680
1680
0
0
1680
0
0
0
0
0
1680
0
0
0
0
0
1680
0
0
0
0
0
1680
0
0
0
1680
1680
1680
1680
Closing Balance
-1680
-1680
-1680
-1680
12.73%
3355.2
2018
0
0
0
1176
504
1680
0
0
1680
0
0
0
120
419.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2019
1
6.04
129.6
419.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2020
2
81.17
139.97
419.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2021
3
235.96
151.17
419.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.18
2022
4
466.44
163.26
419.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
47.94
2023
5
771.01
176.32
419.56
0.00
163.41
4.66
84.52
2024
6
992.86
190.42
405.52
0.00
163.41
305.32
130.85
75.122
-1680
221.85
29.299
2025
7
1022.16
2026
8
1051.46
2027
9
1080.76
2028
10
1110.06
2029
11
911.73
2030
12
911.73
2031
13
911.73
205.66
391.49
0.00
163.41
428.27
183.54
222.11
377.46
0.00
163.41
568.26
243.54
239.88
363.42
0.00
163.41
727.81
311.92
259.07
1470.32
0.00
516.21
0.00
53.64
279.80
1456.29
0.00
516.21
9.44
142.69
302.18
1442.25
0.00
516.21
246.78
244.41
326.35
1428.22
0.00
516.21
518.04
360.66
29.299
29.299 -198.331
2032
14
911.73
2033
15
911.73
2034
16
941.03
2035
17
970.33
2036
18
999.63
2037
19
1028.92
2038
20
1058.22
352.46
1414.19
0.00
516.21
828.20
493.59
380.66
279.22
0.00
163.41
2291.14
981.92
411.11
265.19
0.00
163.41
2697.11
1155.90
444.00
251.15
0.00
163.41
3161.76
1355.04
479.52
237.12
0.00
163.41
3693.69
1583.01
517.88
223.09
0.00
163.41
4302.78
1844.05
559.31
209.05
0.00
163.41
5000.30
2142.99
29.299
29.299
29.299
29.299
29.299
29.299
2039
21
1087.52
2040
22
1116.82
2041
23
1146.12
2042
24
1175.42
2043
25
9276.37
604.06
195.02
0.00
163.41
5799.20
2485.37
652.38
180.98
0.00
163.41
6714.31
2877.56
704.58
166.95
0.00
163.41
7762.61
3326.83
760.94
152.92
0.00
163.41
8963.54
3841.52
29.299
29.299
29.299
Equity
Reserves
Loans
Total Liablities
Fixed Assets
Cash Balance
Total Assets
Gap(To Check Error)
Assets to transfer at
end of concession
perid
2013
-5
324
0
756
2014
2015
2016
2017
-4
-3
-2
-1
648
972
1296
1620
0
0
0
0
2296.56 3619.795 5026.357 6523.481
5556.376
486
666
846
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
0
0 125.1698 448.6708 772.1718 1095.673 1419.174 1419.174
5869.825 5706.411 5190.197 4673.983 4157.77 3641.556 3125.342 2961.928
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1419.174 1419.174 1419.174 1419.174 1419.174 1419.174 1419.174 1419.174
2798.514
2635.1 2471.686 2308.272 2144.858 1981.444 1818.03 1654.616
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
1026
2042
24
1620
1419.174
1491.203
4530.4
4351.658
1204.718
5556.4
1026
2043
25
2013
-5
1176
756
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1176
1176
1176
1176
0
2296.56 3619.795 5026.357 6523.481 6523.481
Accumulated
Interest(Regular +
Subordinated)
Total Interest Paid
0
0
588
588
588
588
588
Outstanding Regular
Debt
588
Accumulated Regular
Debt Interest
47.04
0 275.9649
235.2
235.2
235.2
235.2
235.2
Outstanding
Subordinated Debt
235.2
493.92
778.512 1091.563
1435.92
1435.92
Accumulated
Subordinated Debt
Interest
23.52
49.392
77.8512 109.1563
Subordinated Debt
Interest Paid
143.592
Subordinated Debt
Principle Payment
352.8
352.8
352.8
352.8
352.8
Outstanding Zero
Coupon Debt
226.8
579.6
932.4
1285.2
1638
1638
Outstanding Regular
Debt(For Principle
Payment)
2307.728
Outstanding
Subordinate Debt(For
Principle Payment)
960.5505
Loan Schedule
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6523.481 6523.481 6523.481 6523.481 6360.067 6196.653 6033.239 5869.825
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
419.5569 419.5569 419.5569 419.5569 419.5569 405.5232 391.4895 377.4559
0
1435.92
1435.92
1435.92
143.592
143.592
143.592
143.592
1638
1638
1638
1638
1638
1638
1638
1638
2027
2028
2029
9
10
11
0
0
0
5706.411 5190.197 4673.983
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
12
13
14
15
16
0
0
0
0
0
4157.77 3641.556 3125.342 2961.928 2798.514
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
363.4222 1470.322 1456.288 1442.254 1428.221 1414.187 279.2202 265.1866
163.4139 516.2139 516.2139 516.2139 516.2139 516.2139 163.4139 163.4139
1638
1285.2
932.4
579.6
226.8
-126
-126
-126
352.8
352.8
352.8
352.8
352.8
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
17
18
19
20
21
0
0
0
0
0
2635.1 2471.686 2308.272 2144.858 1981.444
2040
2041
2042
22
23
24
0
0
0
1818.03 1654.616 1491.203
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
251.1529 237.1192 223.0856 209.0519 195.0182 180.9846 166.9509 152.9172
163.4139 163.4139 163.4139 163.4139 163.4139 163.4139 163.4139 163.4139
1257.22 1141.834
0
475.369
-126
-126
-126
-126
-126
-126
-126
-126
2043
25
Equity Schedu
2013
-5
504
324
2014
-4
504
648
2015
-3
504
1152
2016
-2
504
1656
2017
-1
504
2160
Dividend
Equity Investments
0
504
0
504
0
504
0
504
0
504
-504
-504
-504
-504
-504
New Equity
Total Equity
Equity Sponsor
IRR
15%
Equity Sponsor
NPV
91.45
2019
1
0
2160
2020
2
0
2160
2021
3
0
2160
2022
4
0
2160
2023
5
0
2160
2024
6
0
2160
2025
7
0
2160
0
0
0
0
0
0
2026
8
0
2160
2027
9
0
2160
2028
10
0
2160
2029
11
0
2160
2030
12
0
2160
2031
13
0
2160
2032
14
0
2160
2033
15
0
2160
568.2594 727.8144
0
0
568.2594 727.8144
2034
16
0
2160
2035
17
0
2160
2036
18
0
2160
2037
19
0
2160
2038
20
0
2160
2039
21
0
2160
2040
22
0
2160
2041
23
0
2160
2042
24
0
2160
2043
25
8963.537
0
8963.537 5556.376
New Investment
Interest Capitalized
Fixed Asset
Depreciation
Accumulated
Depreciation
2013
-5
1680
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
-4
-3
-2
-1
1680
1680
1680
1680
70.56 147.2352 230.5619 321.1238
2018
0
0
0
6022.278
0 192.7129
Depericiation Schedule
2019
1
0
0
2020
2
0
0
2021
3
0
0
2022
4
0
0
2023
5
0
0
2024
6
0
0
2025
7
0
0
2026
8
0
0
2027
9
0
0
2028
10
0
0
2029
11
0
0
2030
12
0
0
2031
13
0
0
2032
14
0
0
2033
15
0
0
2034
16
0
0
2035
17
0
0
2036
18
0
0
2037
19
0
0
2038
20
0
0
2039
21
0
0
2040
22
0
0
2041
23
0
0
2042
24
0
0
4625.11 4817.823
2043
25
Toll
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Other Income
Revenue Item 4
Revenue Item 5
Revenue Item 6
Revenue Item 7
Revenue Item 8
Revenue Item 9
Total Revenue
2013
-5
0
2014
-4
0
2015
-3
0
2016
-2
0
2017
-1
0
2018
0
525.6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
5
545.6
Revenue Details
2019
1
601.7069
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
688.834 788.5772 902.7632 1033.483 1183.132 1354.449 1550.573
2027
9
1775.096
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2032.13 2326.383 2663.243 3048.881 3490.359 3995.763 4574.349
4722
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
5236.715 5994.991 6863.066 7856.838 8994.508 10296.91 11787.91 13494.79
149.4496 171.0899 195.8637 224.2248 256.6926 293.8617 336.4128 385.1254
18.50009 19.9801 21.57851 23.30479 25.16917 27.1827 29.35732 31.7059
10618
12154
13912
2043
25
15448.84
440.8916
34.24238
O&M
Expenditure Item 2
Expenditure Item 3
Expenditure Item 4
Total Expenditure
2013
-5
0
2014
-4
0
2015
-3
0
2016
-2
0
2017
-1
0
2018
0
120
120
Expenditure Details
2019
1
129.6
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
139.968 151.1654 163.2587 176.3194 190.4249 205.6589 222.1116
2027
9
239.8806
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
259.071 279.7967 302.1804 326.3548 352.4632 380.6603 411.1131
239.88 259.07
2035
2036
2037
2038
17
18
19
20
444.0022 479.5223 517.8841 559.3149
2039
2040
2041
2042
21
22
23
24
604.06 652.3848 704.5756 760.9417
2043
25
Modelling Assumptions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Modelling Assumptions
All Assets would be transferred at book value at end of concession period and same would be used wh
All Interest incurred during construction period would get accumulated and debt amount would increa
All Interest incurred during construction period would be capitalized.Would be considered for fixed ass
Each type of Debt(Regular,Sub-ordinated,Zero coupon) would be raised in given proprotion in each pe
Zero Coupon bonds interest during construction period would not be capitalized
Subordinated Debt would be supplied by Equity Holders of project
Dividend would be declared only when all earlier incurred losses get recovered
In order to maximize Dividend amount,it is taken as PAT + Depreciation - Priniciple Payment
Terminal value(Assets value at end of concession period) would be realized after a year when concess
Tax would be calculated on positive EBT(Earning before tax) at given tax rate.Offsetting of earlier incu
computing tax.
All data in Crores otherwise mentioned
Limitations
1
2
3
4
Limitations
Concession period should be less than or equal to 30 years less of construction period years (For e.g
concession period could be 28 years ,if construction period is 10 years then maximum concession pe
Construction period should be atleast 1 year with maximum limit of 10 years
The cases where construction period + concession period is less than 30,only details till concession pe
ignored.As of now this model does not blank or mark zero to additional irrelevant years information.(F
,concession period is 15 years,Base year is 2013 then data till year 2032 should be referred)
All data to be input in model is assumed to be positive except for growth parameters.No explicit check
values