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Lecture 01 MA321:

Introduction
This course entitled Probability and Statistics will basically be an introductory study
of mathematical statistics. In general statistics is the study of data-- how it is properly
collected, organized, and interpreted. This data should give insight into the source from
which this data is collected. Most freqently this information is used to make predictions
and decisions. Mathematical statistics give a theoretical foundation to the concepts and
techniques used in statistics.
This course assumes no prior knowledge of statistics and will cover the basics usually
taught in a lower level course. Statistics relies heavily on the mathematics developed in
probability-- the mathematical study of random phenomena. We will begin this course
with the study of basic concepts from probabilty.
Counting Methods
When we speak of the probability of an event we mean the likelihood the event will
occur.
Example: Toss a coin two times. What is the probability that at least one of the tosses
comes up head?
Solution: This action can lead to 4 possible outcomes {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Of these , the
three {HH, HT, TH} satisfy the requirement at least one of the tosses comes up heads.
So the probability is .
To find this probability we had to count all the possible results of tossing a coin two
times. We will now study certain counting techniques that will aid us in our study of
probability.
Theorem 1.1 If an experiment (operation) consists of two steps, of which the first can be
done m ways and the second step can be done n ways, then the experiment
(operation) can be done mn ways
Example: For dessert you decide to order pie a la mode.
For the pie you have two choices: apple or peach
For the ice cream you have three choices: chocolate, vanilla, or strawberry
How many different choices of pie a la mode are possible?

Theorem 1.2 The Sequential Counting Principle or Basic Principle of Counting:


If an experiment (operation) consists of k steps, of which the first step
can be done n1 ways and the second step can be done n2 ways, ... ,
and the kth step can be done nk ways, then the experiment (operation)
can be done n1 n2 nk ways.
k

(This product can also be written

ni )
i 1

Example: In a certain state auto license plates have 3 digits followed by 3 letters.
How many different license plates are possible in this state?
Solution:
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 1st letter 2nd letter 3rd letter
Steps 1 through 3 is choosing the 3 digits: n1 = 10 = n2 = n3
Steps 4 through 6 is choosing the 3 letters: n4 = 26 = n5 = n6
(10)(10)(10)(26)(26)(26) = 17,576,000
Permutations
A permutation is an arrangement or ordering of objects.
Example: Four students line up to enter the cafeteria. How many different ways
(permutations) can this line be formed or arranged?
Solution:
Let's call these four students Ann, Bob, Joe, and Sue. A few possible
permutations are: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Ann Bob Joe Sue
Bob Joe Ann Sue
Bob Joe Sue Ann
Sue Ann Joe Bob
We find the total number of arrangement using the Basic Counting Principle
Step 1 choose the first person in line: n1 = 4 (4 choices for 1st place)
Step 2 choose the second person in line: n2 = 3 (only 3 choices are left)
Step 3 choose the third person in line: n3 = 2 (2 choices are left)
Step 4 choose the second person in line: n2 = 3 (only 1 choice is left)
(4)(3)(2)(1) = 24 possible arrangements

Theorem 1.3

The number of (linear) permutations of n distinct objects is n!

Pr The number of Permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time

Example: Ten students {Tim, Tina, Sue, Sam, Jill, Joe, Bob, Don, Pam, Sid} Apply
for a position. Mr Smith will interview 3 of these students tomorrow
between 9am and 12 noon. He tells his secretary to pick three of these
and set up one hour interviews. In how many ways can the secretary
arrange these interviews.
Solution:
The secretary must choose a student for th 9am interview, another for the 10am
interview and another for the 11am interview. There are 10 choices for the 9am
interview. Nine choices remain for the 10am interview and eight will remain for
the 11am interview. 10x9x8=720 possible arrangemnts.
The solution in this example give the number of permutations of 10 students taken 3
at a time, that is 10P3 .
In general nPr = n(n-1)(n-2) ... (n-r+1)
Theorem 1.4

Pr

n!
n r!

Circular Permutations
Suppose 7 people wearing labels A-G stand in a circle holding hands. That would form a
particular arrangment of these 7 people, a circular arrangement. If letters A and G
release hands so that the 7 can stand in a straight line, that would form a linear
arrangement. If instead of A and G, E and F had released hands to form a straight line,
that would have created a different linear arrangement. It follows that 7 different linear
arrangements can be formed for each circular arrangement.
# of linear arrangements = 7 times # of circular arrangments
In general, for n items, # of linear arrangements = n times # of circular arrangments

Since the number of linear arrangements (permutations) = n! we have the following


theorem:
Theorem 1.5 The number of circular permutations of n distinct objects is (n-1)!

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