TMN150420

THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
Thanacharts Morning Note
Current Market
Monday, April 20, 2015
Net trade
P re v.
- 1M
Y TD
Foreign
+1.6
+5.6
- 1.8
- 6.3%
Retail
- 0.6
- 23.5
- 15.8
- 0.3%
Institutes
- 1.6
+11.7
+12.8
Proprietary
+0.6
+6.3
+4.9
Ma rke t da ta
Close
SET Index
1,566.9
- 0.2%
Turnover (Bt m)
46,892
Mkt Cap (Bt bn)
14,696
Stoc k Gainers
453
stoc ks
Stoc k Losers
401
stoc ks
Ne t tra de (Bt bn)
SET Index vs MSCI Asia x JP

SET index (LHS)
(index)
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
Jan-14
MSCI Asia x JP (RHS)
(index)
650
600
550
500
450
Jul-14
Jan-15
Market Valuation
TOP STORIES
Market data
The Basket | Stick with quality
Small caps up in line with big caps: The Thai equity market has rebounded over
the past three weeks, bringing up both big and small caps. The SET 50 Index
rose 4.7% versus our small-cap Basket indexs (55 stocks) 4.3%. Meanwhile,
our top-five picks in The Basket bounced back to outperform both big and small
caps, rising 7.5% over the past three weeks, led by construction stocks
SEAFCO Pcl (SEAFCO), which is up 23.7%, and Ch. Karnchang (CK), up 6.4%
after a sharp drop in construction stock share prices in March.
2015F 2016F 2017F
PE (x)
15.6
13.7
12.0
Norm EPS growth (%)
31.7
13.3
14.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.4
10.0
9.3
P/BV (x)
2.2
2.0
1.8
Yield (%)
3.2
3.6
4.0
ROE (%)
14.9
15.5
16.2
0.7
0.6
0.5
Net D/E (x)
Major Indices
WHA (SELL) | HEMRAJ deal looks priced in
While we see the HEMRAJ deal as long-term accretive, near-term EPS postdeal is worse than we expected. We now forecast WHA's fully-diluted post-deal
EPS to be below the pre-acquisition one in 2015-16F. At a 26x 2015F PE after
the 25% MTD share-price surge, we view WHA shares as fully valued.
Downgrading to SELL with a new Bt34 TP.
Results Comment
P.6-8
17,826 - 279.5
- 1.5%
Close
Dow Jones
NASDAQ
4,932
- 76.0
- 1.5%
FTSE
6,995
- 65.8
- 0.9%
SHCOMP (China)
4,287
92.5
2.2%
Hang Seng
27,653
- 86.6
- 0.3%
FTSSI (Singapore)
3,525
- 6.4
- 0.2%
KOSPI
2,144
3.6
0.2%
JCI (Indonesia)
5,411
- 10.1 - 0.2%
Earnings slightly missed our estimates
MSCI Asia
140
- 0.4
- 0.3%
MSCI Asia x JP
634
- 1.5
- 0.2%
TISCO (BUY)
Decent profits, in-line
Currency /Bond data
TMB (HOLD)
Dollar index
KKP (BUY)
Higher provisions hit 1Q15 results
Close
97.5
0.1
0.1%
Bt/US$
32.4
0.0
- 0.1%
100JPY/US$
118.7
- 0.3
- 0.3%
10Y bond yield (TH)
2.7
0.0
- 0.4%
10Y treasury yield (US)
1.9
0.0
- 1.3%
Com m odities
Close
NYMEX (US$/bbl)
55.7
- 1.0
- 1.7%
BRENT (ICE) (US$/bbl)
63.5
- 0.5
- 0.8%
DUBAI (US$/bbl)
61.2
0.4
0.6%
597.0
4.0
0.7%
Baltic Dry Index

GRM (US$/bbl)
Gold (US$/oz)
Coal (BJI)*
7.6
0.0
0.0%
1,203.1
5.1
0.4%
55.7
1.1
2.0%
(US$/tonne)* (US$ c ent/lb)**

HDPE- Naphtha
842.0
35.0
Ethylene- Naphtha
807.0
10.0
1.3%
PX- Naphtha
362.0
50.0
16.0%
BZ- Naphtha
289.5
32.5
12.6%
Steel- HRC
370.0
- 10.0
- 2.6%
Rubber SICOM TSR20
1,387
3.0
0.2%
Rubber TOCOM
1,670
- 7.4
- 0.4%
13.2
- 0.1
- 1.0%
Raw Sugar**
White Sugar**
4.3%
16.9
- 0.2 - 1.3%
Source: Thanachart , Bloomberg, Datastream, Banpu
Note: * Weekly data
Please note that due to the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited.
20 April 2015
The Basket
SET Index : 1,566.85 , 4.79% 3 weeks
The Basket Index : 1,346.16 , 4.32% 3 weeks
The Baskets Coverage : 55 stocks
Thanachart Securities
Stick with quality

Small caps up in line with big caps: The Thai equity
market has rebounded over the past three weeks, bringing
up both big and small caps. The SET 50 Index rose 4.7%
versus our small-cap Basket indexs (55 stocks) 4.3%.
Meanwhile, our top-five picks in The Basket bounced back
to outperform both big and small caps, rising 7.5% over
the past three weeks, led by construction stocks SEAFCO
Pcl (SEAFCO), which is up 23.7%, and Ch. Karnchang
(CK), up 6.4% after a sharp drop in construction stock
share prices in March.
We believe the reasons behind our top five picks
outperformance are: First, local funds which are the main
players in mid-small caps, reported net buying of Bt11bn
over the past three weeks. Second, we believe the
proceeds from the six trigger funds with a combined value
of Bt2.8bn launched in late March flowed into mid-small
cap stocks in early April. Third, there was a sharp price
correction in The Baskets picks during the second half of
March while we believe their decent fundamentals
remained unchanged, thereby positioning them as the
main targets for local funds to invest in.
Whats next? We expect the overall equity market to be
more active after investors return from their long Songkran
holidays. However, we do not yet see any major catalysts
in the near term to significantly boost the index. We see
the upcoming results season from late April to mid-May
likely being a non-event with lackluster results given weak
economic momentum while we dont expect the market to
be too disappointed given already low expectations. We
therefore suggest investors stick with good-quality stocks.
Siriporn Arunothai
And Thanachart Research Team
662 617 4900
The Baskets Picks

C/R
BBG
EPS gw
16F
Norm P/E
15F
16F
Yield
15F
(%)
(Bt)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(x)
(x)
BEAUTY TB
41.3
52.0
26.1
27.4
24.7
24.8
19.9
3.6
CK TB
25.8
35.0
35.9
32.2
34.8
26.8
19.9
1.5
ICHI TB
21.7
27.0
24.4
50.3
15.4
17.0
14.8
2.3
SAWAD TB
40.5
42.0
3.7
42.2
49.9
23.7
15.8
1.7
SEAFCO TB
12.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
22.8
10.2
8.3
3.9
SET vs The Basket
Index Performance (%)
Th e Basket
Index re l to SET
(Index)
1,400
(%)
8
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
(2 )
800
4.4
3.8
4.6
YTD
Jul-14
Jan-15
Price Change 1 Week (%)

HEMRA J
21.0
ESS O
SEA FCO
SET50
2.8
2.3
1.2
1.4
1.2
-1W
(%) 0
SET
TTCL
28.6
16.7
WHA
8.1
14.5
SPCG
4.6
ESS O
BCP
4.4
SEA FCO
BCH
4.3
THCOM
6.7
STEC
4.1
BCP
6.0
14.4
7.1
KBS
4.0
KBS
5.2
SIRI
3.6
DCC
4.7
JAS
2.7
TICON
4.7
(%)
10
20
30
Price Change 1 Month (%)

TTCL
43.0
Price Change 2 Week (%)
HEMRA J
10.7
The
Basket
1.1
-1M
(4 )
Jan-14
Toyo-Thai Corporation (TTCL, BUY, TP Bt55.0)
The next steps are to deal with the environmental issues,

land acquisition, financial close and PPA contact, and
management expects to complete these processes by
year end. Then, the plant construction would take four to
six years for the first and second phases (640MW each).
15F
(Bt)
Chai Watana Tannery Group (CWT TB)
TTCLs share price surged by 24% in one day after TTCL

reported to the SET on 9 April 2015 about the
Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) signed with the
Department of Hydropower Planning, Ministry of Electric
Power, the Republic of the Union of Myanmar for the
development, operation, and transfer (BOT) of a 1,280MW
coal-fired power plant after facing almost a two-year
delay. Note that of our 12-month SOTP-derived TP of
Bt55/share, Bt27 is for its existing businesses and Bt28
from the 1,280MW power plant.
Up
side
Code
Stocks to talk about this week

Toyo-Thai Corporation (TTCL TB)
TP
Price Price
(%)
20
40
Price Change YTD 15 (%)

SAWAD
OFM
17.2
MTL S
HEMRA J
17.2
ESS O
62.7
55.7
47.4
13.7
TTCL
43.0
13.7
SEA FCO
41.2
CENTE L
13.0
WHA
MAJOR
12.5
OFM
DCC
WHA
38.6
29.9
SIRI
10.4
AP
27.7
SEA FCO
10.1
GUNKUL
24.6
AP
(%)
BEA UTY
7.8
0
20
40
60
(%)
Source: Thanachart estimates, Bloomberg

Based on 17 Apr 2015 closing prices
Please see the important notice on the back page
22.2
0
50
100
THANACHARTS THE BASKET
To recap on the project, the estimated investment cost is around US$2.8bn

with a 30-year concession. TTCL plans to fund the project with 75:25
debt:equity. Most of the loans will likely come from Japanese banks while
the equity portion should come from three major sources: TTCLs internal
cash flow, selling a stake in the project to partners, and listing a holding
company on the Singapore stock market. Management confirms that even
with this huge investment they have no plan to increase capital.
We expect two major benefits to TTCL. The immediate benefit in our view
would come from the construction work with the EPC contract value of
around US$2.3bn. The benefit later on would be recurring income from
having a stake in the project (we expect TTCL to hold 28%). Management
expects this project to offer an equity IRR of around 15%.
We view TTCL as a turnaround play from this year onward with earnings
catalysts from: 1) lower loss contributions from the Qatar project this year,
2) new EPC work value of Bt15bn (Bt10.5bn has already been announced),
3) the third phase of the 120MW power plant project in Myanmar scheduled
to come on stream in 2Q15, and 4) some EPC revenue contribution from
the 1,280MW power plant project.
Chai Watana Tannery Group (CWT TB, Unrated)
We do not yet cover CWT. However, we are excited about its business
transformation story from manufacturing and exporting finished leather
products to an alternative utility business. We therefore arranged a meeting
for local funds to meet with CWTs owner and CEO.
CWT is a US$60m market-cap company listed in the automotive sector. Its
three-month ADT was US$4.0m. CWT has more than three decades of
experience in tannery operations. The companys products (i.e. tanned
buffalo and cow hide, dog chews and leather furniture) are supplied to the
automotive sector and to make furniture, shoes, handbags, etc. Given
fluctuating demand from the automotive sector and slow growth in the
furniture sector, CWT wants to diversify its business to other high-yield andrecurring businesses like utilities.
Therefore, CWT has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with
Zerowaste Co., Ltd. (ZW) and Lawi Engineering (Thailand) Co., Ltd. (LAWI)
to invest in four Waste-to-Energy (WTE) power plant projects in three
provinces of Thailand with total capacity of 40MW. ZW is an expert in WTE
management while LAWI is experienced in building power plants.
Total investment for those projects is around Bt8.3bn. Two-thirds of this
investment would be financial by debt and the rest by equity. CWT plans to
hold a 65% stake in these three projects. Another 35% stake would be held
by its two partners. CWT plans to finance its investment via a capital
increase and warrant exercise. It has therefore just announced the issue of
94m warrants to existing shareholders (exercise ratio 1C:1W at an exercise
price of Bt1.0/share) and a capital increase of 450m shares for a private
placement at a price of no less than Bt3.679/share.
The company expects to announce the first 9MW WTE power plant project
in June this year and the remainder perhaps in 4Q15. The IRR for each
project is around 16-22%, according to CWT. The company hopes to start
recognizing revenue and earnings from the first project in late 2017 with all
projects recognizing revenue and earnings in 2018.
20 APRIL 2015
Ex 1: TTCLs Financial Statement

Y/E Dec (Bt m)
2014A
2015F
2016F
2017F
Sales
19,575
24,667
31,417
37,601
Net profit
460
1,110
1,340
1,411
Norm profit
497
1,110
1,340
1,411
Norm EPS (Bt)
0.9
2.0
2.4
2.5
(45.1)
123.5
20.6
5.3
Norm PE (x)
38.0
17.0
14.1
13.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.8
Norm EPS grw (%)
53.7
14.7
12.2
P/BV (x)
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.5
Div yield (%)
1.8
2.9
3.5
3.7
ROE (%)
9.4
19.7
21.1
20.0
90.3
20.7
36.6
47.3
Net D/E (%)
Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates

Based on 17 April 2015 closing prices
Ex 2: CWTs Financial Statement

Y/E Dec (Bt m)
Sales
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
766
1,282
905
918
Net profit
28
83
(20)
30
EPS (Bt)
0.59
0.26
(0.06)
0.08
(88.8)
(55.9)
neg
neg
8.7
19.8
neg
64.4
37.8
EPS grw (%)

PE (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
28.7
23.5
neg
P/BV (x)
0.4
2.2
2.4
2.6
Div. yield (%)
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
ROE (%)
4.7
12.1
(2.7)
4.2
65.7
55.6
59.4
59.3
Net D/E (%)
Source: Company data

Based on 17 April 2015 closing prices
Ex 3: CWTs New Company Structure

CWT
100%
65%
Existing business
Production & distribution
Waste to Energy
of leather products
35%
LAWI
ZW
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Source: Company data
If CWT can sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with the Provincial
Electricity Authority (PEA) to sell all 40MW of electricity as it plans,
management expects utility earnings contribution to account for 85-90% of
CWTs total earnings with the rest coming from its existing business in
2018.
THANACHART SECURITIES
THANACHARTS THE BASKET
20 APRIL 2015
Recap of The Baskets picks

We keep BEAUTY, SAWAD, SEAFCO, CK and ICHI as our top five picks.
As for 1Q15 results, we expect BEAUTY and SAWAD to lead the pack
followed by SEAFCO and ICHI.
BEAUTY is still enjoying a story of strong earnings growth momentum both
in the short and long term in our view. We estimate it to report strong 1Q15
net profit of Bt91m, up 69% y-y but down 13% q-q. The robust earnings
growth y-y should be attributable to strong sales growth and improving
margin and the extra-low earnings base in 1Q14 because of the political
turmoil. Falling earnings from 4Q14 should be a result of an unusual order
from Chinese wholesalers in 4Q14 and declining orders during Chinese
New Year in February. Meanwhile, we forecast its long-term earnings
growth story to also be solid with 30% growth in 2015 and 27% in 2016
because of improving domestic consumption, strong Chinese tourist arrivals
and more distribution channels.
SAWAD still offers stories of potential acquisitions and robust 1Q15F
earnings in our view. We expect robust 1Q15 profits of Bt258m, up 39% y-y
but down 3% q-q. Strong growth y-y should be underpinned by 30% loan
growth, widening NIM on lower funding costs and falling provisions.
Meanwhile, the slight earnings drop from the previous quarter will likely be
due mainly to rising expenses as SAWAD opened around 150 branches in
the quarter. We have no concerns over asset quality. We expect its NPL
ratio to remain in the 5% range. Going forward, we expect stronger
earnings due to rising contributions of new branches and new businesses
(debt collection, bad debt management). Though its share price is near our
12-month DDM-based TP of Bt42, we keep SAWAD in The Baskets
portfolio. If we include potential upside from M&As and heftier non-interest
income, our TP would increase to Bt54/share.
SEAFCOs share price was hit hard in March due to the Orange Line
bidding delay. However, it bounced back to outperform our four other top
picks due to its good fundamentals remaining unchanged despite the
government investment delays. Two key catalysts we see for SEAFCO are:
1) strong earnings growth in 1Q15F and 2) what we regard as a very cheap
valuation trading at only 13.8x PE in 2015F. We estimate SEAFCOs
normalized earnings in 1Q15 to increase y-y because of revenue
contribution from high-margin piling work from its current backlog value of
Bt1.0bn at end 2014 and its low earnings base in 1Q14. However, we
project earnings to fall q-q because of less revenue recognition in 1Q15 on
lower new work value awarded in 4Q14.
CK is another construction stock whose share price was hit in March by the
Orange Line bidding delay before rebounding in early April. We still see
other infrastructure project bids being opened from 2Q15 onward, starting
in next month with the Pattaya-Map Ta Phut Highway with a project size of
Bt14.2bn. This should be a key near-term catalyst for its share price. We
expect CKs normalized earnings in 1Q15 to fall y-y due to lower revenue
recognition from lower backlog value of Bt94bn at end 2014 versus
Bt113bn at end 2013. But earnings should improve q-q due to more
revenue recognition from the Xayaburi projects phase 2.
ICHI should deliver 1Q15F earnings of Bt230m, up by 13.0% q-q and
13.6% y-y. We expect an improved y-y performance from: 1) capacity
expansion from 600m bottles a year in 1Q14 to 1bn bottles a year in 1Q15,
2) its OEM portion falling from 9% in 2014 to 2% this year, and 3) a rising
sales portion of its higher-margin Yen Yen herbal drink product from 23%
of sales in early 2014 to 49% in early 2015. However, given the weak
domestic consumption and fierce competition, we expect this to result in a
higher portion of SG&A to sales. Its better q-q performance should mainly
be due to improving domestic consumption and the seasonal effect (the low
season is during the winter months).
SELL
TP: Bt 34.00
Transfer of coverage
Downside : 13.9%
20 APRIL 2015
WHA Corporation Pcl (WHA TB)

HEMRAJ deal looks priced in
While we see the HEMRAJ deal as long-term accretive, near-term EPS
post-deal is worse than we expected. We now forecast WHA's fullydiluted post-deal EPS to be below the pre-acquisition one in 2015-16F.
At a 26x 2015F PE after the 25% MTD share-price surge, we view WHA
shares as fully valued. Downgrading to SELL with a new Bt34 TP.
Thanachart Securities
Fully valued; downgrading to SELL

We downgrade WHA to SELL from Buy. First, though we still see
the HEMRAJ deal boosting WHA's post-acquisition fully-diluted
EPS base over the long term, the shorter-term outlook is worse
than we had expected. We forecast that the earnings contribution
from HEMRAJ will not be able to offset dilution from the capital
increase. Despite now factoring in the 90% stake in HEMRAJ, we
cut WHA's fully-diluted EPS by 11-18% in 2015-16F. Our SOTPbased 12-month TP now goes to Bt34 from Bt43. Secondly, we
believe the 25% MTD surge in WHAs share price, to a 26x PE in
2015F and 20x in 2016F already reflects market expectations of a
successful tender offer and potential par split.
RATA LIMSUTHIWANPOOM
662 617 4900
rata.lim@thanachartsec.co.th
COMPANY VALUATION
Y/E Dec (Bt m)
2014A
2015F
2016F
2017F
4,888
12,382
11,861
12,381
979
3,890
4,573
3,458
Consensus NP
1,812
1,837
2,158
Diff frm cons (%)
114.8
149.0
60.2
Sales
Net profit
Norm profit
979
1,966
2,786
3,497
1,966
2,786
3,497
0.0
Prev. Norm profit
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.5
1.9
2.4
(33.8)
64.8
26.8
25.5
Chg frm prev (%)

Norm EPS (Bt)
Norm EPS grw (%)
HEMRAJ acquisition completed
Norm PE (x)
42.4
25.7
20.3
16.2
The voluntary tender offer period for HEMRAJs shares already

ended on 10 April and WHA can acquire around a 90% stake in
HEMRAJ. Post-acquisition, WHA is now the largest fullyintegrated IE and logistic developer in Thailand with land sales,
rental factory and warehouse and utility businesses. HEMRAJs
market share in the industrial land sales segment still ranks No.1
at 40%. Meanwhile, WHAs share of the factory rental and
warehouse market post acquisition has risen from 26% to 48%
versus Ticon Industrial Connections (TICON TB) 49%.
EV/EBITDA (x)
EPS to jump by 65% in 2015F

WHA began to consolidate HEMRAJs operations in its financial
statements from mid-March 2015 and sending its representatives
to sit on HEMRAJs board of directors. This is a sizeable Bt39bn
acquisition, financed by a loan of Bt30bn and new capital of
Bt8.9bn, or 33% share dilution (including 117m in-the-money
warrants). It is also a big-sized deal as HEMRAJ's earnings base
is more than double that of WHA's. Due to the very low base of
earnings in 2014 for the pre-acquisition WHA, together with the
inclusion of HEMRAJ in 2015, we forecast WHA's fully-diluted
normalized EPS to grow by 65% in 2015 and 27% in 2016.
IE industry outlook still looks weak

Though we still like WHA's sunrise rental warehouse business,
we are not keen on HEMRAJs land-sales segment as we expect
a weaker long-term outlook given Thailand's deteriorating FDI.
While the near-term outlook for this year still looks to be for a soft
private investment recovery, that leads us to cut our earnings
forecasts for the land sales and warehouse segments. We project
WHAs average net new leased space for factory rentals to grow
to 40,000-70,000 sq m in 2015-17, from 20,798 sq m in 2014, that
for warehouse rentals to grow to 194,292-219,091 sq m from
138,599 sq m, and expect average new land sales of 1,200 rai
(474 acres) p.a. vs. the 1,727-rai average in 2012-14.
33.8
20.3
19.1
18.0
P/BV (x)
9.3
2.7
2.4
2.2
Div yield (%)
0.0
2.1
3.2
3.1
22.7
15.6
12.5
14.2
217.6
116.7
92.2
88.7
ROE (%)
Net D/E (%)
PRICE PERFORMANCE
(Bt/shr)
WHA
Rel to SET In dex
(%)
50
30
40
20
30
10
20
10
(10)
0
Apr -14
Aug -14
Dec-14
(20)
Apr -15
COMPANY INFORMATION
39.50
Price as of 17-Apr-15 (Bt)

Market cap (US$ m)
1,603.9
Listed shares (m shares)
1,314.4
24.5
Free float (%)
3.2
Avg daily turnover (US$ m)

12M price H/L (Bt)
Sector
Major shareholder
39.75/23.74
Industrial Estate
WHA Holding Co Ltd 25.1%
Sources: Bloomberg, Company data, Thanachart estimates
Please see the important notice on the back page
Kiatnakin Bank Pcl (KKP TB) - BUY, Price Bt39.50, TP Bt47
Results Comment
Sarachada Sornsong | Email: sarachada.sor@thanachartsec.co.th
Earnings slightly missed our estimates
KKPs 1Q15 profits of Bt664m came in below our expectation

on higher provisions. 1Q15 profits made up 22% of our
forecast.
Profits dropped 8% y-y dragged mainly by a jump of provisions

by 18% y-y along with an increase of NPL due to banks
qualitative classification of real estate loans.
Pre-provisioning profits were in-line, increasing 13% y-y on

higher fees and lower repossession loss.
On a q-q basis, earnings jumped 43% given no special

provisions.
(consolidated)
Incom e Statem ent

Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Along with weak car sales, loans contracted 2% YTD. NIM

narrowed due to lower loan yield on rising NPL and increase in
proportion of low-yield corporate loans.
Boosted mainly capital market fees and lower repossession
loss, non-interest income increased 45% y-y and 8% q-q.
We believe KKP has passed its bottom. We expect the banks
earnings to gradually improve as provisions set to fall and we
expect a full recovery of car sales in 2016. Trading below BV
and with over 5% dividend yield, KKP is still a BUY.
Incom e Statem ent

(Bt m )
12M as
1Q15
q-q%
y-y%
2015F % 2015F
Interest & dividend income
3,991
3,894
4,045
4,012
3,702
3,702
(8)
(7)
16,051
23
Interest expense
1,812
1,824
1,745
1,634
1,502
Interest expense
1,502
(8)
(17)
6,943
22
2,179
2,069
2,300
2,378
2,201
2,201
(7)
9,107
24
859
640
916
1,150
1,244
1,244
45
4,273
29
3,038
2,709
3,215
3,528
3,445
3,445
(2)
13
13,380
26
1,523
1,615
1,605
1,542
1,732
1,515
1,094
1,610
1,986
1,713
777
327
570
1,525
918
738
767
1,040
461
795
162
187
732
605
853
463
675
Equity income
Equity income
neg
neg
Minority interests
(10)
(11)
Minority interests
(11)
neg
neg
(25)
Extra items
Extra items
neg
neg
Net interest incom e

Non-interest income
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provisioning profit
Provision for bad&doubtful debt
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
(4)
(2)
(6)
120

Non-interest income
Total income
Operating expense
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
1,732
12
14
6,700
26
1,713
(14)
13
6,681
26
918
(40)
18
2,847
32
795
73
3,834
21
120
neg
1,763
767
16
675
46
3,067
22
(8)
43
Net profit
722
601
847
466
664
Net profit
664
43
(8)
3,042
22
Norm alized profit
722
601
847
466
664
Norm alized profit
664
43
(8)
3,042
22
PPP/share (Bt)
1.8
1.3
1.9
2.4
2.0
PPP/share (Bt)
2.0
(14)
12
7.4
26
EPS (Bt)
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.8
EPS (Bt)
0.8
43
(9)
3.1
22
Norm EPS (Bt)
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.8
Norm EPS (Bt)
0.8
43
(9)
3.1
22
BV/share (Bt)
42.9
42.0
42.7
43.6
44.4
BV/share (Bt)
44.4
42.7
44
1Q15
(consolidated)
Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
Cash and Interbank
Other liquid items
Total liquid items
Gross loans and accrued interest
1Q14
11,020
2Q14
16,255
3Q14
12,874
4Q14
8,308
1Q15
9,997
56
11,076
55
16,310
46
12,920
8,308
9,997
198,946
195,268
189,067
185,918
182,320
Financial Ratios
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
Gross loan grow th (YTD)
(%)
3.6
1.7
(1.5)
(3.2)
(1.9)
Gross loan grow th (q-q)
3.6
(1.8)
(3.2)
(1.7)
(1.9)
Deposit grow th (YTD)
(0.6)
7.6
3.4
(9.4)
(2.4)
Deposit grow th (q-q)
(0.6)
8.2
(3.8)
(12.4)
(2.4)
44.9
Provisions
7,555
7,421
7,470
8,438
8,723
Non-interest income (y-y)
(52.8)
(63.0)
(1.8)
(16.9)
Net loans
191,391
187,846
181,597
177,480
173,596
Non-interest income (q-q)
(37.9)
(25.5)
43.1
25.6
8.2
5,266
5,161
4,919
5,111
5,024
Fee income / Operating income
26.9
30.8
29.3
24.4
25.0
Cost-to-income
50.1
59.6
49.9
43.7
50.3
3.5
3.2
3.6
3.8
3.7
1.57
0.67
1.21
3.30
2.03
Fixed assets
18,663
18,677
19,735
17,668
17,753
254,959
259,458
255,606
241,159
235,925
Net interest margin
145,073
4,174
157,019
3,699
150,983
11,734
132,297
9,795
129,075
3,302
Credit cost
Other liquid items
531
536
389
316
470
Total liquid items
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
Interbank
ROE
8.2
6.7
9.5
5.1
7.2
Loan-to-deposit
136.3
123.6
124.4
139.7
140.4
149,778
161,254
163,106
142,408
132,847
Loan-to-deposit + S-T borrow ing
133.0
121.8
122.6
139.4
140.1
Borrow ings
51,003
43,878
36,837
42,772
46,986
NPLs (Bt m)
8,282
10,791
10,483
10,352
11,812
Other liabilities
18,070
18,867
19,647
19,062
18,447
NPL increase
999
2,509
(308)
(131)
1,460
154
155
161
210
212
NPL ratio
4.20
5.60
5.60
5.60
6.50
Shareholders' equity
35,954
35,303
35,855
36,707
37,434
Loan-loss-coverage ratio
91.2
68.8
71.3
81.5
73.9
Total Liabilities & Equity
254,959
259,458
255,606
241,159
235,925
CAR - total
13.3
13.7
14.8
15.2
15.4
Minority interest
Tisco Financial Group Pcl (TISCO TB) - BUY, Price Bt45.5, TP Bt52
Results Comment
Decent profits, in-line
TISCOs 1Q15 profits of Bt1.2bn, up 28% y-y but down 3% qq. Results were in-line as 1Q15 profits made up 25% of our
full-year forecast.
A strong growth of 28% y-y was driven by improving NIM,
higher non-interest income and falling provisions. Meanwhile,
earnings dropped 3% q-q due to lower investment gains and
higher provisions.
Along with weak car sales, loan contracted 3%. NPL in

absolute has stabilized; however, NPL ratio rose slightly to
2.7% due to a contraction of loans.
(consolidated)
Incom e Statem ent

Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
With improving NPL situation, TISCO lower credit costs to

1.5%. However, this was still higher than the banks normalized
level as it has put aside extra provisions of Bt70m to normalize
a positive impact of a one-off gain from equity divestment.
We continue to like TISCO. The bank is enjoying two stages of
earnings growth turnaround, driven by falling provisions in 2015
and a full recovery of car sales in 2016.
There is 14% upside and we reiterate BUY.
Incom e Statem ent

(Bt m )
12M as
1Q15
q-q%
y-y%
2015F % 2015F
4,917
4,858
4,757
4,360
4,374
4,374
(11)
18,190
Interest expense
2,652
2,435
2,255
2,010
1,974
Interest expense
1,974
(2)
(26)
8,993
22
2,265
2,423
2,502
2,350
2,400
2,400
9,197
26
1,563
14
6,403
24
3,962
15,599
25

Non-interest income
Total income
Operating expense
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
Equity income
1,372
1,414
1,494
1,529
1,563
3,637
3,837
3,996
3,879
3,962
1,287
1,363
1,461
1,494
1,501
2,350
2,474
2,535
2,385
2,462
1,176
1,225
1,149
877
972
1,174
1,249
1,386
1,508
1,490
231
246
277
290
292
944
1,003
1,109
1,218
1,198
Minority interests
Extra items
(9)
-
(11)
(20)
16
-

Non-interest income
Total income
Operating expense
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
Equity income
(6)
-
1,501
17
5,928
25
2,462
9,672
25
972
11
(17)
3,784
26
(1)
27
5,887
25
26
1,177
25
(2)
27
4,710
25
neg
1,490
292
1,198
-
neg
(6)
Minority interests
Extra items
24
neg
neg
(27)
neg
neg
22
Net profit
935
992
1,089
1,234
1,192
Net profit
1,192
(3)
28
4,683
25
Norm alized profit
935
992
1,089
1,234
1,192
Norm alized profit
1,192
(3)
28
4,683
25
PPP/share (Bt)
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
PPP/share (Bt)
3.1
12.2
25
EPS (Bt)
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
EPS (Bt)
1.5
(3)
28
5.3
25
Norm EPS (Bt)
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
Norm EPS (Bt)
1.5
(3)
28
5.3
25
BV/share (Bt)
29.9
29.3
30.8
32.1
33.6
BV/share (Bt)
33.6
12
32.2
34
(consolidated)
Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
Cash and Interbank
Other liquid items
Total liquid items
2Q14
30,539
3Q14
30,452
4Q14
39,238
1Q15
31,139
(%)
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
(0.6)
(2.1)
(4.1)
(8.3)
(3.2)
30,641
30,539
30,452
39,238
31,139
(0.6)
(1.5)
(2.0)
(4.4)
(3.2)
(14.0)
(14.3)
(21.8)
(22.4)
(2.5)
(14.0)
(0.4)
(8.7)
(0.8)
(2.5)
(22.1)
(2.9)
13.3
9.0
13.9
285,063
280,701
275,204
263,340
254,983
Provisions
6,477
6,702
6,843
6,950
7,096
Net loans
278,586
273,998
268,360
256,390
247,887
2,644
2,619
2,639
2,605
2,588
Fixed assets
Financial Ratios
1Q14
30,641
(2.2)
3.0
5.7
2.4
2.2
34.0
32.5
31.9
31.5
31.4
Cost-to-income
35.4
35.5
36.6
38.5
37.9
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.1
1.65
1.75
1.67
1.34
1.53
4,569
4,697
4,193
4,628
5,138
332,807
329,483
317,658
317,657
302,207
Net interest margin
227,611
16,419
226,736
19,367
207,075
18,117
205,384
10,897
200,149
11,305
Credit cost
Other liquid items
398
595
426
400
444
Total liquid items
244,428
246,698
225,618
216,681
211,898
121.7
120.1
127.8
123.0
122.4
54,626
49,452
57,759
65,406
52,927
NPLs (Bt m)
5,366
6,366
6,470
6,750
6,742
9,552
9,625
9,364
9,745
10,389
NPL increase
400
1,000
104
280
255
269
290
93
99
NPL ratio
1.89
2.27
2.35
2.57
2.65
120.7
105.3
105.8
103.0
105.2
14.3
15.4
16.2
16.7
17.1
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
Interbank
Borrow ings
Other liabilities
Minority interest
23,945
23,438
24,628
25,731
26,893
332,807
329,483
317,658
317,657
302,207
ROE
Loan-to-deposit
CAR - total
15.9
16.7
18.1
19.6
18.1
125.1
123.6
132.7
127.9
127.1
(8)
TMB Bank Pcl (TMB TB) - HOLD, Price Bt2.88, TP Bt3.40
Results Comment
Higher provisions hit 1Q15 results
TMB reported 1Q15 profits of Bt1.64bn, up 2% y-y but down

45% q-q. The results came in weaker than ours and the
consensus expectations.
Pre-provisioning profits were in line while provisions were

higher than our estimate because of rising NPLs of small
SMEs and special provisions.
Boosted by healthy loan growth, higher fees and falling cost-toincome, pre-provisioning profits grew strongly by 44% y-y and
17% q-q and accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast.
(consolidated)
Incom e Statem ent

Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
NIM dipped slightly q-q because of an interest rate cut and

higher liquidity.
Provisions increased by by more than 100% both y-y and q-q
and this was triggered by NPLs rising by 6% from 4Q14 and
the setting aside of special provisions in the quarter.
We are concerned about NPLs and we need to revisit our
provision expenses assumption. Our current recommendation
is a HOLD with a Bt3.4/share TP.
Incom e Statem ent

(Bt m )
12M as
1Q15
q-q%
y-y%
2015F % 2015F
8,734
8,935
9,110
9,069
8,935
8,935
(1)
39,010
23
Interest expense
3,697
3,712
3,573
3,272
3,231
Interest expense
3,231
(1)
(13)
14,068
23
5,037
5,224
5,537
5,797
5,704
5,704
(2)
13
24,942
23
1,792
2,034
2,153
2,379
2,260
2,260
(5)
26
9,853
23
6,828
7,258
7,690
8,176
7,964
7,964
(3)
17
34,795
23

Non-interest income
Total income
Operating expense
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
Equity income
3,763
3,727
3,864
4,420
3,558
3,065
3,531
3,826
3,757
4,406
1,161
309
825
1,142
2,387
1,905
3,222
3,001
2,615
2,019
299
643
610
1,606
2,579
2,391
2,977
1,642
Minority interests
Extra items
(4)
-
(3)
(362)
(4)
376
(2)
Total income
Operating expense
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
Equity income
(5)

Non-interest income
3,558
(19)
(5)
16,664
21
4,406
17
44
18,132
24
2,387
109
106
4,336
55
2,019
(23)
13,795
15
neg
26
2,759
14
1,642
376
(45)
11,036
15
neg
neg
neg
neg
(15)
neg
neg
(5)
Minority interests
Extra items
31
Net profit
1,602
2,575
2,387
2,975
1,638
Net profit
1,638
(45)
11,021
15
Norm alized profit
1,602
2,575
2,387
2,975
1,638
Norm alized profit
1,638
(45)
11,021
15
PPP/share (Bt)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
PPP/share (Bt)
0.1
17
43
0.3
24
EPS (Bt)
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
EPS (Bt)
0.0
(45)
0.2
15
Norm EPS (Bt)
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Norm EPS (Bt)
0.0
(45)
0.2
15
BV/share (Bt)
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
BV/share (Bt)
1.6
12
1.6
1.6
(consolidated)
Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
Cash and Interbank
Other liquid items
Total liquid items
Financial Ratios
1Q14
128,847
2Q14
126,666
3Q14
111,536
4Q14
129,525
1Q15
122,539
(%)
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
0.3
2.0
5.3
6.2
1.6
128,847
126,666
111,536
129,525
122,539
0.3
1.8
3.2
0.8
1.6
5.5
8.2
7.3
7.9
1.8
501,740
510,587
527,126
531,429
539,995
5.5
2.6
(0.8)
0.6
1.8
26.2
Provisions
32,216
29,807
29,316
28,362
28,785
(10.2)
(9.6)
13.8
5.8
Net loans
469,525
480,780
497,810
503,066
511,210
(20.3)
13.5
5.8
10.5
(5.0)
Fixed assets
13,161
12,874
12,896
12,532
12,385
16.6
18.5
20.5
20.5
21.2
Cost-to-income
55.1
51.4
50.2
54.1
44.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
0.93
0.24
0.63
0.86
1.77
ROE
10.2
16.1
14.6
17.5
9.3
Loan-to-deposit
89.6
88.9
92.5
92.8
92.7
52,177
61,920
51,657
53,199
45,093
776,531
801,327
767,817
809,182
805,153
Net interest margin
558,584
66,139
572,997
75,525
568,470
39,630
571,625
72,717
581,707
59,497
Credit cost
Other liquid items
2,867
3,086
3,169
3,145
3,474
Total liquid items
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
Interbank
627,590
651,608
611,269
647,487
644,679
Borrow ings
37,592
30,640
43,861
36,249
38,978
NPLs (Bt m)
Other liabilities
47,872
54,735
45,947
55,653
50,071
NPL increase
864
(2,507)
80
83
87
89
93
NPL ratio
3.85
3.40
63,397
64,261
66,652
69,704
71,331
138.4
143.5
776,531
801,327
767,817
809,182
805,153
15.3
15.4
Minority interest
CAR - total
89.1
88.5
92.3
92.6
92.5
23,285
20,778
21,027
18,093
19,190
249
(2,934)
1,097
3.43
2.85
3.01
139.4
156.8
150.0
18.5
18.3
17.8
NEWS CLIPPING
Prayut vows to stand down if draft charter approved:
Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha
Bangkok Post
yesterday insisted he has no intention of clinging on to power, saying elections will be held if the
constitution is approved.
Tarit shrugs off B40m asset freeze: Ex-DSI chief says he can explain his wealth. Former Department
Bangkok Post
of Special Investigation (DSI) chief Tarit Pengdith is confident he can clarify the source of his wealth
following the announced seizure of more than 40 million baht worth of assets belonging to him and his
wife yesterday.
Export recovery expected in Q2: Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula is more upbeat
Bangkok Post
about economic prospects in the second quarter, saying the economy could grow 4% if exports manage
to eke out zero growth or move in a positive range during that period.
Boonsong faces trial on June 29 : THE Supreme Court has pencilled in June 29 to commence the
Bangkok Post
first trial in the case involving former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom and 20 others in relation
to alleged corruption in government-to-government rice deals under the Yingluck government's
controversial rice-pledging scheme.
41 airlines need to be recertified by July: Prajin: THE Transport Ministry is considering asking the
The Nation
prime minister to use Article 44 to help "solve" urgent aviation safety problems, including the need to
recertify 41 airlines by the end of June.
Oil Fund contributions trimmed to keep motor fuel prices stable : THE ENERGY Policy
Bangkok Post
Administration Committee expects global oil prices to rise sharply after the unrest in Yemen ends, while it
believes cutting contributions to the Oil Fund from all types of motor fuel - excluding E85 and E20 - is a
way to stop retail fuel prices climbing locally.
Govt urged to help SMEs, farmers:
Representative from the private sector have urged the
The Nation
government to concentrate on helping farmers and small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) over the
next six months in order to boost domestic consumption at a time of export sluggishness, while state and
private investment is expected to be more apparent from this quarter on.
FPO pins hopes on shipments : 1% expansion equals 3% economic growth. The government is
Bangkok Post
banking on exports to help boost the struggling economy.
EPAC agrees to cut in Oil Fund collection: Energy policymakers have agreed to another cut in the
Bangkok Post
levy collection for the state Oil Fund to help stabilise fluctuating domestic retail oil prices, says Energy
Minister Narongchai Akrasanee
NBTC may allow delay in the payment of licence fee instalment: THE National Broadcasting and
The Nation
Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) might grant a request by terrestrial digital TV operators to

postpone their payments of the second instalment of the upfront licence fee - worth almost Bt8.2 billion in
total - by a year to help them cope with the unfavourable economic climate.
Sorayut faces fresh land-grab scrutiny: Officials say doubts still remain about Channel 3 news anchor
Bangkok Post
Sorayut Sutasanajinda's recent purchase of land in Nakhon Ratchasima's Pak Chong district.
'Superior execution of plans key to be the best': THE ONLY way to beat your competition is to
The Nation
perform better than them, according to Lars-Ake Norling, the new chief executive officer of Total Access
Communication (DTAC).
TMB's open architecture model woos retail clients : TMB BANK has embraced an open-architecture
The Nation
model for its retail clients, allowing them to diversify their investments beyond the bank's own TMB Asset
Management arm.
Market data
Close
1,566.85
-3.2
-0.2%
SET50 Index
1,039.5
-4.2
-0.4%
SET100 Index
2,310.2
-7.4
-0.3%
SET Index
MAI Index
720.2
Econom ic data
-5.5
Current
-0.8%
-1M
PRICE CHANGE - MOST ACTIVE

Change 1 Day (%)
Change 1 Week (%)
PTTGC
PT TGC
IRPC
PT T
PTT
PT TEP
-3M
TRUE
TRUE
KBANK
JAS
Saving Rate (%)
0.50
0.50
0.50
Fixed Deposit - 3M (%)
1.00
1.00
1.13
PTTEP
ADVANC
Fixed Deposit - 1Y (%)
1.50
1.50
1.75
ADVANC
KBANK
Govt Bond Yield 1Y (%)
1.74
1.78
1.97
KT B
BBL
Govt Bond Yield 10Y (%)
2.67
2.73
2.62
BBL
KTB
Treasury Yield 10Y (%)
1.87
1.91
1.86
TMB
INTUCH
Policy Rate (%)

VIX Index
1.75
1.75
2.00
13.89
13.41
16.40
0.26
0.27
0.24
TED Spread (%)
(10)
(5)
10
Change 1Month (%)
SET Forward PE Band
(index)
25x
22x
2,500
18x
1,500
KBANK
ITD
ITD
TRUE
TRUE
PTT
KT B
KT B
BBL
KBANK
AOT
ADVANC
BBL
14x
INTUCH
SCB
10x
JAS
1,000
7x
10
15
TPIPL
ADVANC
2,000
Change Year-To-Date (%)
PTT
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Thai BMA
(5)
JAS
(30)
(20)
(10)
10
20
(50)
50
100
SECTOR CHANGE
500
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
2016F
Change 1 Day (%)
SET PE Discount to MSCI Asia x JP
(x)
10
8
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(8)
Jan-03
+2 STD = 6.6x
+1 STD = 3.5x
Change 1 Week (%)
PETRO
PETRO
PROP
ENERG
ENERG
PROP
FOOD
FOOD
AUTO
SET
SET
CONMAT
COMM
MEDIA
ICT
AUTO
CONMAT
TRANS
HELTH
ICT
MEDIA
ETRON
ETRON
BANK
TRANS
COMM
BANK
(2.0)
Average = 0.4x
-1 STD = -2.8x
HELTH
0.0
2.0
4.0
Change 1 Month (%)
Jan-06
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
5.0
10.0
ETRON
ENERG
PETRO
COMM
CONMAT
FOOD
HELTH
ETRON
ENERG
PROP
SET
SET
PROP
CONMAT
TRANS
BANK
AUTO
HELTH
COMM
MEDIA
BANK
TRANS
ICT
ICT
FOOD
AUTO
MEDIA
(5.0)
0. 0
PETRO
-2 STD = -5.9x
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
(10.0) 0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Source: Bloomberg
10
REGIONAL MARKET PERFORMANCE
REGIONAL FUND FLOWS
Change 1 Day (%)
Change 1 Day (-1D)
Change 1 Week (%)
(US$ m)
China
China
Philippines
Singapore
Malaysia
S.Korea
Singapore
Hang Seng
Indonesia
Thailand
Thailand
Malaysia
MSCI Asia x JP
MSCI Asia x JP
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
(50)
(100 )
(150 )
261
138
48
(22)
Kor ea
Asia-6
Thailan d
India
Phil ip.
(45)
(123)
Indone sia Taiwan
Change 1 Week (-1W)
Hang Seng
Taiwan
S.Korea
S&P500
India
Nikkei
2,000
Taiwan
Dow Jones
1,500
S&P500
Nasdaq
Nikkei
Indonesia
Nasdaq
India
(500 )
Dow Jones
Philippines
(1,000)
(US$ m)
2,500
1,909
1,418
1,000
500
170
133
0
(134)
Kor ea
(2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
19
Asia-6
Thailan d
India
Phil ip.
185
70
(234)
(426)
Indone sia Taiwan
(4.0)(2.0)0.0 2. 0 4. 0 6.0 8.0
Change 1 Month (-1M)

(US$ m)
Change 1 Month (%)
4,000
3,651
3,000
1,992
2,000
China
Hang Seng
Hang Seng
MSCI Asia x JP
Nikkei
(2,000)
MSCI Asia x JP
(3,000)
S. Korea
Singapore
S. Korea
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
India
Thailand
Nikkei
Indonesia
S&P500
India
Taiwan
(1,000)
(5.0) 0. 0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Asia-6
India
Thailan d
Phil ip.
(2,439)
Indone sia Taiwan
Change Year-To-Date (YTD)

(US$ m)
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
(2,000)
Taiwan
15,496
6,295
Dow Jones
0. 0
4,794
3,141
964
Asia-6
S&P500
Nasdaq
(565)
Kor ea
Nasdaq
Indonesia
Dow Jones
1,090
1,000
China
India
Kor ea
Taiwan
353
(51)
Phil ip. Indone sia Thailan d
Source: Bloomberg
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Source: Bloomberg
11
General Disclaimers And Disclosures:

This report is prepared and issued by Thanachart Securities Public Company Limited (TNS) as a resource only for clients of TNS,
Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited (TCAP) and its group companies. Copyright Thanachart Securities Public Company
Limited. All rights reserved. The report may not be reproduced in whole or in part or delivered to other persons without our written
consent.
This report is prepared by analysts who are employed by the research department of TNS. While the information is from sources
believed to be reliable, neither the information nor the forecasts shall be taken as a representation or warranty for which TNS or
TCAP or its group companies or any of their employees incur any responsibility. This report is provided to you for informational
purposes only and it is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer or an invitation to make an offer to sell or buy any securities.
Neither TNS, TCAP nor its group companies accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use
of this report or its contents.
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable. However, TNS,
TCAP and its group companies make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness.
Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. The use of any information, forecasts and opinions contained in
this report shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
TNS, TCAP and its group companies perform and seek to perform business with companies covered in this report. TNS, TCAP, its
group companies, their employees and directors may have positions and financial interest in securities mentioned in this report. TNS,
TCAP or its group companies may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or
other business from, any entity mentioned in this report. Therefore, investors should be aware of conflict of interest that may affect the
objectivity of this report.
12
Recommendation Structure:
Recommendations are based on absolute upside or downside, which is the difference between the target price and the current
market price. If the upside is 10% or more, the recommendation is BUY. If the downside is 10% or more, the recommendation is
SELL. For stocks where the upside or downside is less than 10%, the recommendation is HOLD. Unless otherwise specified, these
recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch
between upside/downside for a stock based on the market price and the formal recommendation.
For sectors, we look at two areas, ie, the sector outlook and the sector weighting. For the sector outlook, an arrow pointing up, or the
word Positive, is used when we see the industry trend improving. An arrow pointing down, or the word Negative, is used when we
see the industry trend deteriorating. A double-tipped horizontal arrow, or the word Unchanged, is used when the industry trend does
not look as if it will alter. The industry trend view is our top-down perspective on the industry rather than a bottom-up interpretation
from the stocks we cover. An Overweight sector weighting is used when we have BUYs on majority of the stocks under our
coverage by market cap. Underweight is used when we have SELLs on majority of the stocks we cover by market cap. Neutral is
used when there are relatively equal weightings of BUYs and SELLs.
Thanachart Securities Pcl.

Research Team
28 Floor, Siam Tower Unit A1
989 Rama 1, Pathumwan Road, Bangkok 10330
Tel: 662 - 617 4900
Email: thanachart.res@thanachartsec.co.th
Supanna Suwankird
Energy, Utilities
Siriporn Arunothai
Ad Hoc Research, Healthcare
supanna.suw@thanachartsec.co.th
siriporn.aru@thanachartsec.co.th
Sarachada Sornsong
Financial, Telecom
Saksid Phadthananarak
Construction, Transportation
Noppadol Piriyawut
Senior Technical Analyst
sarachada.sor@thanachartsec.co.th
saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th
noppadol.pri@thanachartsec.co.th
Phannarai Tiyapittayarut
Property, Retail
Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Food, Hotel, Media
Adisak Phupiphathirungul, CFA

Retail Market Strategy
phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th
kalvalee.tho@thanachartsec.co.th
adisak.phu@thanachartsec.co.th
Ittikorn Thepmani
Insurance
Rata Limsuthiwanpoom
Industrial Esate
Chalida Tantriyanont
Assistant Analyst
ittikorn.the@thanachartsec.co.th
Rata.Lim@thanachartsec.co.th
chalida.tan@thanachartsec.co.th
Pimpaka Nichgaroon, CFA

Head of Research
Economics & Strategy
pimpaka.nic@thanachartsec.co.th
13

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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

Thanacharts Morning Note

Monday, April 20, 2015

Mkt Cap (Bt bn)

Ne t tra de (Bt bn)

SET Index vs MSCI Asia x JP

MSCI Asia x JP (RHS)

The Basket | Stick with quality

2015F 2016F 2017F

Norm EPS growth (%)

Net D/E (x)

WHA (SELL) | HEMRAJ deal looks priced in

Earnings slightly missed our estimates

Decent profits, in-line

Currency /Bond data

Higher provisions hit 1Q15 results

10Y bond yield (TH)

10Y treasury yield (US)

BRENT (ICE) (US$/bbl)

Baltic Dry Index

(US$/tonne)* (US$ c ent/lb)**

Rubber SICOM TSR20

The Basket Index : 1,346.16 , 4.32% 3 weeks

The Baskets Coverage : 55 stocks

Stick with quality

The Baskets Picks

SET vs The Basket

Index Performance (%)

Price Change 1 Week (%)

Price Change 1 Month (%)

Price Change 2 Week (%)

Toyo-Thai Corporation (TTCL, BUY, TP Bt55.0)

The next steps are to deal with the environmental issues,

Chai Watana Tannery Group (CWT TB)

TTCLs share price surged by 24% in one day after TTCL

Stocks to talk about this week

Price Change YTD 15 (%)

Source: Thanachart estimates, Bloomberg

Please see the important notice on the back page

THANACHARTS THE BASKET

To recap on the project, the estimated investment cost is around US$2.8bn

Ex 1: TTCLs Financial Statement

Norm EPS (Bt)

Norm EPS grw (%)

Div yield (%)

Net D/E (%)

Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates

Ex 2: CWTs Financial Statement

EPS grw (%)

Div. yield (%)

Net D/E (%)

Source: Company data

Ex 3: CWTs New Company Structure

Source: Company data

THANACHARTS THE BASKET

Recap of The Baskets picks

WHA Corporation Pcl (WHA TB)

Fully valued; downgrading to SELL

Diff frm cons (%)

Prev. Norm profit

Chg frm prev (%)

HEMRAJ acquisition completed

The voluntary tender offer period for HEMRAJs shares already

EPS to jump by 65% in 2015F