Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(RNT:NYSE)
Outperform 2
EQUITY
RESEARCH
TJ McConville
Research Associate
(727) 567-5761
March 3, 2009
Home Retailers
Initiation of Coverage
Chad Bolen
Senior Research Associate
(727) 567-2546
All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. (RJA) as of the date stated above and are subject to change.
Information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that the facts cited in the foregoing report are accurate or complete. Other
departments of RJA may have information that is not available to the Research Department about companies mentioned in this report. RJA or its affiliates may execute
transactions in the securities mentioned in this report that may not be consistent with the report's conclusions.
2009 Raymond James & Associates, Inc. All Rights Reserved
The Raymond James Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL 33716
Institutional clients may call for additional information:
Research 800-237-5643 Trading 800-237-8426
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 4
Investment Thesis............................................................................................................... 4
Positive Industry Characteristics: Profitability, Growth, and Barriers....................... 5
Expanding Customer Base...................................................................................... 5
Focused Business Approach................................................................................... 5
High Quality, Experienced Leadership .................................................................... 6
Valuation.................................................................................................................. 6
Stock Drivers ......................................................................................................... 10
Investment Risks............................................................................................................... 11
Aaron Rents: A Detailed Examination.............................................................................. 14
Company History: Lease Ownership Begins ........................................................ 14
Company History: Public Trading of RNT and RNT.A.......................................... 16
Revenue and Earnings Growth ............................................................................. 17
"Gross Margins"..................................................................................................... 27
Operating Expenses .............................................................................................. 28
Competition ........................................................................................................... 35
Senior Management .............................................................................................. 37
Recent Results ...................................................................................................... 38
Model and Estimates ............................................................................................. 39
Technical Analysis............................................................................................................. 41
Summary and Recommendation....................................................................................... 42
Appendices
Income Statement Model .................................................................................................. 43
Common Size Income Statement Model .......................................................................... 44
Balance Sheet Model ........................................................................................................ 45
Cash Flow Statement Model ............................................................................................. 46
Operating Expense Model ................................................................................................ 47
Economic Value Added Worksheet (EVA) ........................................................................ 48
Free Cash Flow Intrinsic Value Calculation ...................................................................... 49
Operating Assumptions Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................... 50
Sample Aarons Customer Information and Order Form................................................... 51
Sample Aarons Lease Agreement & Federal Consumer Leasing Act Disclosures.......... 53
Rent-to-Own Industry Overview ........................................................................................ 56
Please read disclosure/risk information on page 64 and Analyst Certification on page 68.
Aaron Rents
Aaron Rents
(RNT:NYSE)
Outperform 2
Q1
Mar
Q2
Jun
Q3
Sep
Q4
Dec
Full
Year
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
$0.42
0.49
0.56
UR
$0.39
0.45
0.51
UR
$0.39
0.43
0.49
UR
$0.39
0.42
0.51
UR
$1.55
1.80
2.07
2.26
GAAP EPS
Full
Year
$1.66
1.80
2.07
2.26
March 3, 2009
Home Retailers
Initiation of Coverage
Budd Bugatch, CFA
(727) 567-2527
Budd.Bugatch@RaymondJames.com
TJ McConville
Research Associate
(727) 567-5761
Chad Bolen
Senior Research Associate
(727) 567-2546
Current Price
(3/2/2009 )
$24.32
Projected 12-Month Target Price:
$28.00
52-Week Range
Dividend/Yield
Book Value (12/08)
Suitability
$30.22-$15.11
$0.07/0.3%
$14.30
Growth
53.4
$1299
1,034,011
13.5x
11.7x
10.8x
$1,593
$1,759
$1,947
$2,126
9.3%
9.4%
9.8%
9.7%
Rows may not add due to rounding. UR: Under Review. Non-GAAP EPS exclude
earnings from discontinued operations and one-time items.
Aaron Rents
Executive Summary
Thomson-Reuters
Insider Trading BOT/SL
last 6 months.....394,400/1,031,185
Float (mil.)............................... 53.5
Common Equity
(mil.)/% of Cap ........... $762/87%
Aaron Rents, based in Atlanta, Georgia, is one of the two largest players in the
growing rent-to-own (RTO) industry. The company now focuses on lease
ownership sales of home furnishings to customers that have little, no, or poor
credit histories. Aarons owns and operates 1,053 store locations and
franchises an additional 504 stores in 48 states and Canada. Plans are
underway for additional expansion in Canada.
Founded in 1955 by Chairman R. Charles Loudermilk, Sr., Aarons initially
focused on renting outdoor tents and chairs. It since has migrated into
primarily a Sales and Lease Ownership (SALO) business that offers a wide
variety of products and serves more than 1.1 million customers. Aaron Rents
operates three distinct divisions: Sales and Lease Ownership, Corporate
Furnishings, and Manufacturing.
The Aarons Sales & Lease Ownership (SALO) division is the companys
largest and fastest growing division, serving credit-constrained consumers in
need of basic home furnishings, appliances, and electronics. At year-end 2008
there were 1,037 company-owned stores, including 10 RIMCO outlets, and
504 franchised stores, including eight RIMCO outlets.
The companys Corporate Furnishings business serves both corporate
customers with office furniture and residential furniture for employee
relocations and the traditional residential customers. In the fourth quarter of
2008, the company sold substantially all of the assets of this division to CORT
Business Services Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire
Hathaway for more than $75 million. As of year-end, there were 16 stores
operating exclusively as Aarons Corporate Furnishings.
The MacTavish Furniture Industries division manufactures the majority of
upholstered furniture and a significant portion of the mattresses and
foundations leased, rented, and sold by Aarons.
Investment Thesis
Aaron Rents is on a roll. During the past several years, management has
grown its store count aggressively through green field store openings,
acquisition, conversion of independent rent-to-own (RTO) operators to the
Aarons format, and expansion of its franchise program.
During this period, Aarons has focused its business almost exclusively on its
Sales and Lease Ownership division by selling most of the assets of its
Corporate Furnishings division, by closing underperforming stores, and
shrinking other RTO concepts. In the movement of stores, 2008 was a
particularly active year.
Contrary to other home furnishings and hard goods retailers, a challenging
job/wage and consumer confidence environment benefits RTO operators.
RTO transactions are popular with consumers that are cash-, credit-, and/or
budget-constrained. As unemployment rates rise and consumers look to
maintain and/or improve their living standards, RTO operators benefit by an
increased pool of potential customers.
Aarons is an industry leader that caters to a better class of these cash- and/or
credit-constrained customers. By virtue of its policies and practices, it has
delivered consistent revenue and earnings comparisons for several years and
quarterly results have exceeded estimates for each of the past five quarters.
Moreover, management has recently increased its earnings outlook several
times. In combination, these factors make Aarons an attractive equity to
recommend.
Aaron Rents
Even in its early days, the rent-to-own (RTO) or lease-ownership industry was
highly profitable. In fact, the perceived too-large profits of the early players
and calculated annual percentage rate proxies were the lightning rods that
caused much of the negative attention directed towards the business.
Despite the criticisms, the industry continues to grow, primarily from market
penetration and an expanding customer base and less so from new locations.
Nevertheless, store growth opportunities still exist. We believe that within the
realm of furnishing retailers few, if any, growth stories remain. Aaron Rents
is one of them.
Since 1995, RTO industry revenues have grown at an above-average 5.0%
compound annual growth rate (CAGR), driven by increased adoption by
consumers. Over this period, there has yet to be a down year in revenue
growth for the industry, with revenues actually increasing in 2001s recession.
In the current recession, the industrys popularity with consumers is growing as
more consumers face financial pressures and the need for new furnishings
particularly digital television increases. To many of the industrys customers,
the home television is their chief source of entertainment, raising its status to a
necessity.
From a Porter analysis view, the most attractive aspects of the rent-to-own
industry are (a) the relatively high start-up costs that limit the threat of new
entrants and (b) the comparative advantage of the lessor versus the lessee in
determining price and terms, given the customers typical financial position.
Additionally, rivalry among competitors, while appearing fierce on the surface,
is, on balance, relatively rational because the major players target different
customer populations. That said, the industry leadership is tightly contested,
and Aarons has found its own niche amongst the upper portion of the target
customer - $50,000 in household income and below. Management sized this
market at about 50% of the ~78 million family households in the U.S. today.
The recent economic meltdown seems likely to have long-term effects on the
consumer landscape. In Aarons case, the collapse of many consumers FICO
scores should drive more customers to its stores. The fact that the company
does not conduct formal credit checks becomes an increasingly attractive
value proposition to consumers who were forced to file for bankruptcy or
suffered home foreclosures.
As evident recently, the reaction of many lending institutions to a downturn is
to tighten credit. In most states, lease ownership transactions are not defined
as outright sales, meaning that no additional debt is incurred by RTO
customers. These important features no credit checks and no incurred new
debt seem likely to be increasingly valuable to a larger number of
households that previously might not rent-to-own.
Focused Business
Approach
Aaron Rents continues to focus and streamline its business by adjusting its
corporate structure as well as its product offering. The result is a leaner
operating structure that is attuned to its customers wants and needs.
Recently, it sold the majority of its Aarons Corporate Furnishings division to
the CORT Business Services Corporation division of Berkshire Hathaway. The
sale signaled a heightened commitment by Aaron Rents management to the
Sales and Lease Ownership business, its growth engine.
The necessary wants that Aarons offers include home furnishings such as
furniture, electronics, and appliances. Although not necessary for basic
survival, these products are all but essential for quality of life attainment for
most Americans. In addition, given the relatively low levels of discretionary
income of most Aarons customers, a comfortable and entertaining home is
necessary since nights out are rare.
Aaron Rents
Valuation
Aaron Rents
10.0
9.0
20.0
8.0
7.0
15.0
Absolute P/E
6.0
13.4
5.0
10.0
4.0
15.5
3.0
1.8
5.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.0
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
Median
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-03
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-02
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-01
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-00
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-99
Jan-99
May-99
0.0
Median
Aaron Rents
10.0
9.0
20.0
8.0
7.0
15.0
Absolute P/E
6.0
13.4
5.0
10.0
4.0
15.5
3.0
5.0
2.0
1.2
1.0
1.0
Median
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-03
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-02
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-01
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-00
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-99
Jan-99
0.0
May-99
0.0
Median
On an absolute price-to-sales (P/S) basis, shown by the solid line in the chart
below, RNT now trades at a discount to its historical median multiple. Shares
trade at 0.8x trailing four quarter sales compared with the 10-year median 0.9x
multiple. Relative to RCII, however, RNT trades at a premium: 1.9x, compared
with its historical 10-year median premium of 1.4x.
6.0
1.4
5.3
1.2
4.5
3.8
Absolute P/S
1.0
0.9
0.8
3.0
0.8
2.3
0.6
1.9
1.5
0.4
1.4
RNT Price/Sales
Median
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-02
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-01
Sep-00
May-00
Jan-00
0.0
Sep-99
0.0
Jan-99
0.8
May-99
0.2
Median
Aaron Rents
1.4
5.3
1.2
4.5
1.0
3.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
3.0
0.6
2.3
0.4
Absolute P/S
1.5
1.1
0.2
0.8
0.6
0.0
RNT Price/Sales
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
Median
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-03
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-02
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-01
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-00
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-99
Jan-99
May-99
0.0
Median
Ticker
RNT
Aaron Rents
RCII
Rent-A-Center
HVT
TTM
P/E
NTM
P/E
P/E to
SPX
PEG
Ratio
P/B
P/CF
P/S
EV /
EBITDA
Avg Vol
(000)'s
Mkt Cap
(Mil)
$23.31
0.3%
14.3
12.8
1.1
0.9
1.7
2.4
0.8
2.2
1,000
1,247
NR
$17.22
0.0%
8.4
8.2
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.4
0.4
2.2
1,318
1,150
Haverty Furniture
MP3
$7.85
0.0%
NA
0.6
9.7
0.2
8.6
141
167
PIR
Pier 1 Imports
SB1
$0.20
0.0%
NA
0.2
0.0
13.6
461
18
CPWM
Cost Plus
MP3
$0.70
0.0%
NA
0.2
0.0
33.9
41
15
CSH
NR
$13.25
1.1%
4.4
4.5
0.4
0.4
0.7
3.1
0.4
4.1
395
384
AEA
Advance America
NR
$0.85
OP2
Price
29.4%
1.3
1.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.9
0.1
2.4
177
52
Mean:
4.4%
7.1
6.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
3.5
0.27
9.6
505
433
Median:
0.0%
6.4
6.4
0.6
0.7
0.6
2.4
0.24
4.1
395
167
3/4/2009
Aaron Rents
Stock Drivers
Aaron Rents: 10-Year Stock Price History versus Forward EPS Estimates
$40
$2.00
$1.82
$36
$1.80
Closing Price
Forward Earnings
$28
$1.40
$24.32
Feb-09
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-07
Aug-0
7
Feb-06
Aug-06
$0.00
Feb-05
$0
Aug-05
$0.20
Aug-04
$4
Feb-04
$0.40
Aug-03
$8
Feb-03
$0.60
Aug-0
2
$12
Feb-02
$0.80
Aug-01
$16
Feb-01
$1.00
Aug-0
0
$20
Feb-00
$1.20
Aug-99
$24
$1.60
Feb-99
$32
The above chart tracks Aaron Rents month-end closing stock price versus the
consensus forward EPS estimate at the same time. For most of the period, the
share price tracked closely with the slope and movement in estimates. More
recently, the directional movements in each continue to track; but, as we noted
earlier, RNTs forward multiple has contracted from its historical 15.5 median to
about 13.5x.
Given the positive environment for RTO and given managements increasing
emphasis on improving in-store and overall profitability, it seems likely that
near-term earnings revisions ours and probably consensus will be higher.
Also, below we provide a historical chart showing RNTs share price movement
versus trailing P/E bands. We observe that in recent years, when the shares
have been valued at 15x or below, forward performance has usually been
positive.
Aaron Rents
10
$50
Stock Price
$40
$30
$20
$10
30 times
25 times
20 times
15 times
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-03
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-02
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-01
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-00
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-99
$0
10 times
Investment Risks
Despite these positive attributes, we remain cognizant of the following
investment risks:
Economic Risk
Despite the fact that the rent-to-own industry is typically resilient to, and thrives
during, a normal recession, a longer and even more severe economy could
negatively impact results at Aarons. While its customer typically has
experience with job loss and/or limited spending capacity, a severely worse
economic climate could dramatically increase the population of consumers that
would not be able to afford the rent-to-own monthly payment for those
perceived-necessary wants.
An even more dramatic economic downturn also heightens the risk of an
explosion of previously on-lease inventory returning to the stores more rapidly
than management could curtail new purchases. If more customers are forced
to cut back, more merchandise could be forfeited to the stores. With less
product moving out to new customers, Aarons could be caught with
depreciating inventory that generates no income. The companys focus on rerenting or selling returned goods, as well as its MacTavish manufacturing
division, should provide it with the flexibility to avoid such a scenario.
Consumer Acceptance
Challenges
U.S. consumers have been learning about, and adopting, lease ownership
transactions for more than three decades. That said, the industry is often the
target of a number of consumer advocacy groups.
These advocates ignore, or minimize, the benefits of lease ownership for the
RTO target consumer group and attack the industry for what they view as
predatory pricing and terms toward the weakest consumers. Over the years,
these views have generated a significant amount of negative publicity that
continues today. A good deal of political attention has been paid to the
industry over the years, as well.
Management remains vigilant in working to educate and comfort new
customers about the transaction. While rent-to-own is common lingo in the
public and other parts of the industry, Aarons always labels the transaction as
lease ownership. The improvements in merchandise quality are also leading
to less negative commentary surrounding the process.
Aaron Rents
11
As noted, the RTO industry has attracted (arguably more than) its fair share of
negative attention from consumer advocates as well as the government. The
scrutiny results, in part, from the industrys pricing and, in part, from prior
indiscretions in collection practices. Whether deserved, or not, the heightened
notice is currently, and will remain, a risk for the foreseeable future.
Today, the chief source of regulation is state law, as there is now no federal
regulation to set guidelines for the lease ownership industry. There are 47
states with regulation that allows rent-to-own stores, as we know them today,
to operate.
The laws vary from one state to the next, but essentially, in exchange for full
consumer disclosure about the terms and condition of the RTO transaction, the
states deem the transaction a lease, thus maintaining the three fundamental
principals of the transfer. That said, a few of these states are considering
pricing modifications to the laws that would make lease-ownership a much less
attractive business from an operators standpoint.
The Association of Progressive Rental Organizations (APRO) and certain
members of Congress have proposed a version of a nationwide bill to govern
the industry, but the bill has not achieved legislative success in the Congress
and Senate. In opposition, a federal bill to designate all lease ownership
transactions as credit sales, thus making them subject to state usury laws, has
also been proposed by Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY). The industrys bill
has attracted far greater support in Washington over the years as senators
worry about potentially displaced constituents. Neither side has achieved its
goal as of yet.
Should a federal law similar to that proposed by Senator Schumer be enacted
and signed, the result would be severely detrimental to Aaron Rents and other
RTO operators. In essence, the industry would cease to exist in its current
form and it would be likely that most operators would not survive. If the current
pricing bills in New York, New Jersey, Indiana, and Maine are passed, it is
likely that Aarons operations within these states would cease to grow.
Aarons has developed alternative lease structures for the states that do not
recognize the rental purchase transaction as a lease, but a significant portion
of the customer offering is lost in these agreements. The company has stated
that it does not believe that the current legislative proposals represent an
immediate threat to the company.
Merits of either sides arguments aside, investors need to be aware of the
potential threats of limiting regulation.
Execution Risk:
New Store Development
The premium valuation multiple that Aaron Rents enjoys is largely a function of
its superior growth versus its peers. A significant portion of the future growth
of the company will depend on the opening of new stores. Although Aarons
has proven its prowess at selecting store sites, pre-opening operations, and
other opening activities, there remains the risk that it will falter in future new
store openings. According to management, nearly $600,000 in start-up capital
(cash investment and first-year loss) is required to open new stores, most of
which becomes permanent investment.
Historically, when Aarons has entered new markets, other RTO operators
have had to convert to the Aarons pricing model or risk losing up to 40% of
their business. However, should customer loyalty be extremely deep in a
given market, it remains a risk that Aarons will not succeed in the area.
Execution Risk:
Cash Collections
In addition to acquiring new customers and new business, the key success
factor in RTO is cash collections. Despite the fact that Aarons customers tend
to be the best of those who are cash-, credit-, and/or budget-constrained,
Aaron Rents
12
Also very important to the future revenue and earnings growth at Aarons is
managements franchising program. If the company were unable to attract
qualified new franchisees, results would suffer. Currently, the companys
franchises are held in high regard within the industry. If this esteem were lost,
the company might find it more difficult to attract capable people.
The high initial investment required to open an Aarons franchise, or multiple
Aarons franchises, as management prefers, could also pose a risk to future
franchise growth, particularly in a credit-constrained business economy. As
the difficult economic cycle persists and business credit remains tight, fewer
entrepreneurs may have access to the necessary capital. The company
attempts to combat this factor by having developed a $125 million, maximum
commitment, bank loan that it guarantees. At year-end 2008, management
had guaranteed $95.6 million under the franchisee loan program, of which
$89.2 million was under the bank loan program.
In addition to attracting qualified franchisees, a portion of Aarons results are a
function of its franchisees success. If industry outsiders or insiders operate
their stores poorly and proliferate too many unsuccessful stores, the royalty
stream to the corporation could shrink. Furthermore, if franchisees deliver
poor customer experiences, it will reflect poorly across the chain, impacting
both company-owned and other franchise stores.
Competitive Risk
Valuation Risk
Despite our commentary in the Valuation section, Aaron Rents stock still tends
to trade at somewhat lofty valuations on most metrics. The market appears
comfortable with rewarding the companys growth and profitability track record
Aaron Rents
13
Company History:
Manufacturing
In 1971, Loudermilk began to worry about supply continuity and cost treatment
by suppliers. In response, he created MacTavish Furniture Industries to
manufacture upholstered and office furniture and bedding. MacTavish has
now expanded from its initial Quincy, Florida, (since closed) furniture facility by
adding seven furniture manufacturing facilities and five bedding manufacturing
facilities, aggregating about 767,000 square feet.
The MacTavish manufacturing division operates in leased facilities to
manufacture upholstered furniture and bedding. The furniture manufacturing
facilities now range from 10,000 to 300,000 square feet. The company also
operates five bedding facilities that average about 25,000 square feet.
Aaron Rents
14
Square Feet
Cairo, Georgia
300,000
Cairo, Georgia
147,000
Coolidge, Georgia
81,000
Coolidge, Georgia
48,000
Coolidge, Georgia
41,000
Coolidge, Georgia
10,000
Duluth, Georgia
23,000
Lewisburg, Pennsylvania
25,000
Buford, Georgia
32,000
Sugarland, Texas
20,000
Orlando, Florida
16,000
Indianapolis, Indiana
24,000
Source: Company Reports and Raymond James Research
Company History:
Franchising to Expand
In 1992, in order to expand and capitalize on the growing market, Aaron Rents
began its franchise program. Under the program, approved, independent, and
seasoned entrepreneurs operate SALO stores, paying an initial franchise fee
of $15,000 to $50,000 (market size dependent) and a continuing royalty stream
that equates to 5% or 6% (6% for all new and/or renewed agreements) of the
franchisees weekly cash collections. Franchise agreements are typically 10
years in duration with one 10-year renewal option. Today, the company has
more than 500 franchised stores and plans to grow this business faster than
any other.
Aarons franchisee selection process is disciplined. Before approval, a
potential franchisee must demonstrate financial wherewithal and experience.
Historically, management targets potential franchisees that have the ability to
open and operate multiple locations. The term Aarons Six-Pack refers to a
cluster of six stores which a franchisee takes on when joining the Aaron Rents
team. In some cases, franchisees will have previously owned and operated
locations under their own or another banner.
Through acquisition of private operators, organic unit growth, and aggressive
franchising, Aarons store base has grown from 456 at the end of 2000 to
1,557 at the end of 2008, including 504 franchises.
The company has stores throughout the United States and in some parts of
Canada. Currently, Aaron Rents operates in 48 U.S. states. While diversified
geographically, there is a denser concentration of stores in the Southeast
where the company began. Demographics in Aarons major markets also
more closely align with the characteristics of a typical rent-to-own customer
(FICO scores, income levels, debt capacity utilization, and population of
transient workers).
Company History:
Secondary Concepts
In 2004, the company experimented with the RIMCO concept. RIMCO rents
and leases automobile rims and tires. The company started with two separate
RIMCO units and peaked at 30 company-owned and nine franchised locations.
That said, in December 2008, Aaron Rents announced it rolled 20 of its 30
company-owned locations into existing Aaron Rents stores. The move was
enacted in order for Aarons product offering to be focused on more necessary
life merchandise.
In September 2008, Aarons also announced an agreement to sell most of its
Aarons Corporate Furnishings division to CORT Business Services, a division
of Berkshire Hathaway. The move signaled an almost total focus on Sales and
Aaron Rents
15
In addition to its store base, the company also leases 16 fulfillment centers
across the U.S. in order to merchandise its company-owned and franchised
stores. The facilities average 86,000 square feet and bundle shipments of
furniture, electronics, appliances, and other items for delivery to stores. Each
fulfillment center services an area with a 250-mile radius and reaches
approximately 100 stores.
Square Feet
Auburndale, Florida
77,000
Baltimore, Maryland
95,000
Columbus, Ohio
92,000
Dallas, Texas
89,000
Duluth, Georgia
97,000
Sugarland, Texas
104,000
Winston-Salem, North Carolina
83,000
Blythewood, South Carolina
77,000
Madison, Tennessee
38,000
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
90,000
Phoenix, Arizona
96,000
Magnolia, Mississippi
125,000
Plainfield, Indiana
98,000
Portland, Oregon
98,000
Rancho Cucamonga, California
96,000
Westfield, Massachusetts
102,000
Source: Company Reports and Raymond James Research
Company History:
Public Trading of
RNT and RNT.A
In November, 1982, Aaron Rents entered the publicly traded equity arena
through an IPO. In the early 1990s, the company created two classes of stock,
the Class-A voting stock and the non-voting common shares. This action
permitted the company to raise additional outside capital without diluting the
founders voting control. Shortly thereafter, Aarons issued 1 million shares of
the now classified Class-A stock, which was priced at $15.50 (split adjusted
$3.44).
Shares of the Class-A stock trade on the New York Stock Exchange under
ticker symbol RNT.A. Mr. Loudermilk owns about 64% of theses shares.
Including Loudermilk, executives and board members own 67% of the Class-A
shares. Institutional investors own much of the balance of the Class-A shares,
with T. Rowe Price accounting for nearly 10% at year-end.
As sales and units continued to grow, Aaron Rents decided to offer additional
shares of common stock (RNT) to investors in another public offering. The
company completed a 1.75 million unit distribution of common, non-voting
stock in May 1994, pricing the shares at $12.00 (split adjusted $2.67).
The company followed this distribution of common stock with another follow-on
offering in April 1998, selling 2.5 million shares at $20.125 (split adjusted
$8.94). Again in June 2002, the company sold 2 million shares to the public at
a price of $21.00. Finally, in May of 2006, the company sold 3.45 million
shares of common stock at $25.75. The proceeds are typically used to pay
down debt and for general corporate purposes.
Aaron Rents
16
Aaron Rents sales and earnings growth has been consistent and impressive,
coinciding with its aggressive unit growth during the past eight years.
Management is now transitioning its attention slightly towards store efficiency,
recognizing the need to maintain control of its expanding store base. Since
2000, total revenue at Aaron Rents has grown from $503 million to $1.6 billion
in 2008, representing a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the
period.
Aaron Rents: Annual Total Revenue and Y/Y Growth
28%
$1,800
25%
$1,395
18.9%
$1,327
21%
17.2%
$1,200
$1,126
$946
$1,000
18%
14.2%
17.9%
14%
$767
$800
$547
$600
$1,593
23.4%
19.7%
$1,400
Millions
Revenue and
Earnings Growth
$641
11%
$503
7%
8.7%
$400
4%
$200
5.2%
$0
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Aaron Rents
17
80%
$45
67.2%
$45
70%
$40
$39
Millions
$35
60%
50%
$34
$30
$30
40%
$25
$25
22.1%
18.4%
16.0%
13.2%
$20
$14
$15
15.4%
$17
30%
20%
$15
10%
$12
9.7%
$10
0%
-9.6%
$5
-10%
$0
-20%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
$1.80
62.9%
$1.60
$1.55
$1.47
$1.40
31.1%
$1.20
60%
$1.41
45%
$1.18
24.6%
30%
$1.00
29.8%
$0.97
$0.61
15%
10.2%
21.6%
$0.74
$0.80
0%
$0.57
$0.60
$0.35
-15%
-4.1%
$0.40
-30%
$0.20
$0.00
-42.6%
2000
-45%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Aaron Rents now has three reportable business segments: (1) Companyowned Sales and Lease Ownership, (2) Franchise, and (3) Other. The
company recently ceased reporting its Corporate Furnishings segment
separately. Its revenues are now included in the SALO division. The company
also discloses similar data for MacTavish industries, its manufacturing unit,
with most of its revenues eliminated from net sales as intercompany sales.
By far, the largest contributors to both revenue and operating income are the
Sales and Lease Ownership channels, with corporate-owned stores providing
the bulk of revenues and operating income.
Revenues generated by the franchises belong to those franchisees, with
Aarons collecting continuing royalty payments. We will examine each of the
business segments in detail.
Aaron Rents
18
1%
3%
19%
3%
74%
Retail Sales
Non-Retail Sales
Other
2005
8.3%
7.3%
8.4%
11.5%
8.9%
2006
7.0%
9.1%
6.9%
7.2%
7.5%
2007
9.3%
5.0%
4.0%
3.9%
5.6%
2008
2.6%
4.1%
5.7%
6.2%
4.6%
2009
5.5%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.1%
2010
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
2003
2004
2005
2002
Q1
3.5%
10.8%
13.9%
11.0%
Q2
10.3%
10.6%
13.0%
11.0%
Q3
10.3%
11.7%
10.4%
9.7%
15.4%
9.3%
9.8%
Q4
12.6%
Year
10.4%
12.2%
11.6%
10.3%
Reported Figures are In Bold
Source: Company Reports and Raymond James Research
2006
7.7%
8.2%
7.7%
9.4%
8.2%
2007
8.2%
7.1%
5.5%
5.6%
6.6%
2008
6.0%
4.6%
4.9%
5.1%
5.1%
2009
4.1%
4.6%
5.4%
5.6%
4.9%
2010
5.3%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.1%
2-Year Average
Aaron Rents
19
4%
96%
Retail Sales
Aaron Rents
20
16%
4%
35%
30%
15%
Electronics
Appliances
Furniture
Computers
Other
The following chart depicts total EBIT dollars segmented into Sales and Lease
Ownership contribution and Other. The second chart shows the information
based on a percentage of total EBIT.
$160
$140
$127
$123
Millions
$120
$97
$86
$100
$80
$60
$62
$47
$43
$26
$40
$20
$0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Franchise
2007
2008
Other
Aaron Rents
21
10%
37%
22%
23%
12%
13%
21%
90%
80%
8%
4%
3%
2%
19%
23%
22%
23%
21%
70%
60%
36%
17%
50%
40%
77%
70%
67%
66%
30%
20%
45%
73%
65%
75%
44%
10%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Franchise
2006
2007
2008
Other
1,000,000
CAGRs 2002-2008:
Company Owned: 20%
Franchise: 16%
Total: 19%
363,034
800,000
317,559
273,874
600,000
234,500
207,703
400,000
166,492
740,278
147,422
200,000
243,662
314,408
386,865
468,228
531,366
609,519
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Franchises
Aaron Rents
22
Lease Ownership
Transaction
Aaron Rents
23
Frigidaire 23 cu ft.
side-by-side
refrigerator
$99.99
$10.00
$109.99
18 months
$1,979.80
$1,066.99
$912.81
R-T-O Schedule
Payment Number
Amount
Remaining Balance
1
$109.99
$1,869.81
2
$109.99
$1,759.82
3
$109.99
$1,649.84
4
$109.99
$1,539.85
5
$109.99
$1,429.86
6
$109.99
$1,319.87
7
$109.99
$1,209.88
8
$109.99
$1,099.89
9
$109.99
$989.90
10
$109.99
$879.91
11
$109.99
$769.92
12
$109.99
$659.93
13
$109.99
$549.94
14
$109.99
$439.96
15
$109.99
$329.97
16
$109.99
$219.98
17
$109.99
$109.99
18
$109.99
($0.00)
Source: ShopAarons.com, Company Reports and Raymond James Research
Buyout Price
$957.00
$847.01
$737.02
$847.01
$792.02
$737.02
$682.03
$627.03
$572.04
$517.05
$462.05
$407.06
$352.06
$297.07
$242.07
$187.08
$132.08
$77.09
Aaron Rents
24
SKU
7603RE2
7605RE2
7609RE2
7610RE2
7615RE2
7607RE2
7601RE3
7611WL7
7613WL7
Description
Dresser
Mirror
5/0 Queen Sleigh HB
5/0 Queen Sleigh FB
5/0 Queen Rails
Nightstand
Chest
Queen Mattress
Queen Foundation
Total
Payments
Service
Lease
Plus
$138.88
$13.89
Monthly
Semi-Monthly
$74.42
$7.44
Source: Aaron Rents and Raymond James Research
Excludes sales tax computation
Monthly Price
$25.89
5.70
19.16
9.84
4.14
12.95
32.95
21.92
6.33
$138.88
Total
Payment
$152.77
$81.86
Semi-Monthly
Price
$13.86
3.06
10.27
5.27
2.22
6.94
17.66
11.75
3.39
$74.42
Retail Price
$400.41
88.16
296.86
152.87
64.70
200.60
509.60
338.92
97.87
$2,149.99
Payments
24
48
Cost of
Ownership
$3,666.43
$3,929.38
As one can see below, the total cost of ownership under the lease ownership
scenario is relatively expensive on a nominal basis. For instance, if one were
to look at the above example as a traditional credit sale, one would find that
the annual percentage rate (APR) on this transaction would be ~64% for the
monthly payment and ~71% for the semi-monthly payment. We exclude sales
taxes from the calculation, although these are paid by the customer as a part
of each periodic payment.
While these calculations are useful analytically to understand the relative cost
of these transactions versus typical credit or conditional sales, there are a
series of factors that are not accounted for by the math. In particular, these
analyses do not take into account the right of the customer to terminate the
transaction at anytime without penalty or further obligation and the fact that no
credit history is required, maintained, or reported negatively from the
transactions. Although we know of no objective means of pegging a value to
these rights, the sheer magnitude of the imputed rates helps to explain why
RTO transactions are subjected to advocacy group and regulator scrutiny and
angst.
Aaron Rents
25
Below we extend the APR calculation to two electronics items (Dell computer
and a 42 Phillips LCD HD TV) and one appliance (Frigidaire refrigerator). The
calculated APRs for the computer and refrigerator are even more eye-popping
than the above furniture example and TV. We remind investors that these are
imputed interest rates that are not disclosed to consumers because the
transactions are defined as leases.
SKU
Description
Frigidaire 22 Cu Ft Side-by-Side
7405FWW/FWB
Months to own
18
Lease
Service Plus
Monthly
$99.99
$10.00
Cost of Lease Services
Imputed Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
SKU
7360C92
Description
Dell Compt'r w/ Wide Screen Monitor
Lease
Service Plus
Monthly
$99.99
$10.00
Cost of Lease Services
Imputed Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
Months to own
12
Monthly Price
$99.99
Retail Price
$1,066.99
Total Payment
$109.99
Cost to own
$1,979.80
$912.81
105%
Monthly Price
$99.99
Total Payment
$109.99
Retail Price
$899.99
Cost to own
$1,319.87
$419.88
94%
Months to own
Monthly Price
Retail Price
Description
$1,499.99
Phillips 42" LCD - Full HD 1080p
24
$99.99
Total Payment
Cost to own
Lease
Service Plus
$99.99
$10.00
$109.99
$2,639.74
$1,139.75
Cost of Lease Services
68%
Imputed Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
Source: Aaron Rents Waltrip Dream Products, Investor Presentation, and Raymond James Research
APR Calculated using Principal and Interest Method; payment at beginning of period
APR calculation excludes value for lessee right to terminate, taxes, and cost of delivery and warranty
SKU
7301PLC
Aaron Rents
26
10 %
9 .1%
$ 18 0
9%
7 .7 %
7 .7 %
$ 16 0
8%
7 .1%
$ 14 0
7 .7 %
$Millions
7 .2 %
7%
7 .2 %
7 .4 %
119
$ 12 0
6%
10 6
$ 10 0
$ 80
62
98
5%
4%
71
4 .2 %
$ 60
3%
49
36
$ 40
22
2%
16
$ 20
1%
$0
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
In the final analysis, Aarons customers are typically not concerned with, and
cannot relate to, interest rates. They are concerned only with affordable
monthly payments. Without these transactions, it is arguable that many of
Aarons customers would not be able to procure, use, and enjoy the
items offered in its stores. In the Appendix, we provide the reader with a
sample Aarons order form and a sample lease ownership contract.
"Gross Margins"
Since, throughout the lease term, Aaron Rents still maintains official ownership
of the merchandise in circulation, a true cost of goods sold is not practicable to
report. The merchandise does, however, depreciate throughout its life and
thus a margin is possible to derive.
Rental merchandise typically depreciates over a 24-month period when rented
and 36-month period when not rented. In both cases, the salvage value is 0%.
Once an item is rented for the first time, it usually remains under the 24-month
depreciation schedule until 0 salvage value. If an item is unrented and
remains on a store floor, it does not begin depreciating until it has remained on
the floor for six months.
In examining the rental merchandise gross margins, we find that the business
generates returns well in excess of the depreciation. That said, the rentals and
fees gross margins have contracted modestly over the past few years as
Aarons continues to use a price leadership strategy to gain market share. In
2008, as the company benefitted from lower merchandise costs from its
suppliers, the metric rebounded.
Aaron Rents
27
64.0%
63.0%
62.0%
61.0%
60.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Retail sales in the SALO division are typical merchandise sales, which result in
more traditional gross margins. In the retail sales segment, we see steadily
increasing gross margins. This is the result of Aarons decision to raise price
in response to competition and perceptibly to drive behavior towards the lease
ownership business. It is also due to a contraction in the cost of merchandise
the company sells.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Retail Sales GM %
Operating Expenses
At the store level, much of the operating costs at Aaron Rents are relatively
fixed. Typically, there are three to four employees within the store at any given
time, with two to four delivery crew members delivering merchandise. Each
store maintains at least two trucks to deliver the goods to customers.
Aaron Rents
28
Marketing spend is a key driver for sales at Aarons. Currently, the company
utilizes national and local television advertising, direct mail, and direct delivery
of promotional material. All television commercials feature name brand
merchandise including HDTV flat-panel televisions, computers, stainless steel
refrigerators, washers, dryers, and lawn tractors.
The company also uses various sporting events at the collegiate and
professional levels. These leagues include NASCAR racing, the National
Basketball Association (NBA), World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE),
Arena Football League (AFL), Southeastern Conference (SEC) and Atlantic
Coast Conference (ACC) football and basketball, and Major League Baseball
(MLB).
Aarons premier partnership continues to be the Aarons Dream Weekend at
Talladega Superspeedway. The event, a weekend in April, consists of the
Aarons 499 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Race and the Aarons 312 NASCAR
Nationwide Series Race. Both races are televised live on ABC/ESPN
television and are among the most watched NASCAR events.
The company also sponsors the #99 Aarons Dream Machine car year-round in
the NASCAR Nationwide Series and the Aarons #00 Dream Machine car in
the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Daytona, Atlanta, and Bristol.
Aarons Lucky Dog mascot is another well-known tool the company uses in
its marketing efforts. The concept is that Everyone is a lucky dog at Aarons,
since people can afford to purchase items they typically would not be able to
otherwise.
Aaron Rents
29
Aaron Rents
30
Aaron Rents
Average SALO Store Model
$000s, except per square foot
Store Square Footage
Monthly Rental Fees
Retail Sales
Revenues: Rentals, Fees, and Mdse. Sales
Comp Store Sales
Store Revenue per SF
Merchandise Margin
Operating Expenses:
Rent
Utilities
Other Occupancy
Leasehold Depreciation
Delivery Expense
Store Payroll
Payroll Benefits
Write offs - (skip, stolen, damaged)
Total Direct Operating Expenses
YR1
9,000
$31
14
$386
65
28
20
20
15
167
47
11
$373
66
29
20
17
24
169
47
18
$389
67
29
20
14
42
183
48
32
$434
67
29
20
12
48
227
60
37
$500
68
29
20
18
53
231
60
41
$519
($150)
-39.0%
($11)
-1.7%
$256
23.2%
$300
23.5%
$358
25.6%
12
($162)
-42.0%
39
($123)
(47)
($75)
-19.5%
19
($30)
-4.7%
40
$10
4
$6
1.0%
33
$223
20.2%
40
$263
101
$161
14.7%
38
$262
20.5%
40
$302
116
$186
14.5%
42
$316
22.6%
41
$356
137
$219
15.6%
100
90
0
322
(87.0)
425
522
$947
$947
($1,022)
83
0
0
356
(87.0)
352
527
$880
($67)
$73
69
0
0
395
(87.0)
377
532
$909
$30
$132
58
0
0
437
(87.0)
408
538
$946
$36
$149
90
0
50
484
(87.0)
537
543
$1,080
$134
$85
($75)
$947
$6
$880
0.6%
$161
$909
18.3%
$186
$946
20.4%
$219
$1,080
23.2%
$42.85
222
YR2
$51
22
$628
63%
$69.80
378
YR3
$88
39
$1,100
75%
$122.22
689
YR4
$106
45
$1,276
16%
$141.78
800
YR5
$117
49
$1,400
10%
$155.56
877
Franchise Program
Aaron Rents franchise initiative has been an effective avenue for expanding
Aarons brand and geographical footprint with a lower initial investment by the
company.
Through its meticulous scrutiny of a franchise applicants
background and financial solvency, Aarons has become known within the
industry as one of the toughest franchises to gain access to.
That said, the company has grown its franchise store count from 193 stores in
2000 to 504 stores at the end of 2008. The company has also struck area
development agreements with franchisees for an additional ~280 stores in the
future. Management has stated that of the roughly 10% annual square footage
growth it hopes to achieve over the next few years (5% to 9% in 2009), it would
like at least half to come from franchises.
Traditionally, Aarons looks for franchisees with the ability to operate more than
one facility, though a small number of franchisees operate only one store.
Ideally, an applicant would enter an agreement for the Aarons Six-Pack, or
six stores to operate. The companys franchising team carefully selects areas
Aaron Rents
31
Aaron Rents
32
80%
$45
67.2%
$45
70%
$40
$39
Millions
$35
60%
50%
$34
$30
$30
40%
$25
$25
22.1%
18.4%
13.2%
$20
$14
$15
16.0%
15.4%
$17
30%
20%
$15
10%
$12
9.7%
$10
0%
-9.6%
$5
-10%
$0
-20%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Since franchises require little to no capital investment from Aaron Rents, the
operating margins for this revenue are very high. In 2008, EBIT in the
franchise segment reached $33 million, representing an EBIT margin of 73.1%.
100.0%
90.6%
$45.0
73.1% 90.0%
74.6%
67.7%
$40.0
73.8%
Millions
$35.0
$25.0
65.8%
60.4%
$22
$33
$29
50.0%
40.0%
$14
$15.0
$7
$9
70.0%
60.0%
$24
$18
$20.0
$10.0
71.2%
73.2%
$30.0
80.0%
30.0%
$11
20.0%
$5.0
10.0%
$0.0
0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Franchise
2005
2006
2007
2008
EBIT Margins
Aaron Rents
33
MacTavish Furniture
Industries
The major raw materials used in production of the above-listed items include
fabric, foam, fiber, wire-innerspring, plywood, and hardwood. The company
does not use hedging instruments for these items and buys them on the open
market from third-party sources.
Sales to company-owned Sales and Lease Ownership stores are accounted
for as intra-company sales and do not impact reported results. Sales to the
franchised stores, however, show up within the non-retail sales portion of the
income statement.
As the franchise base continues to grow, sales of MacTavish should grow
along with it. That said, franchises are not required to purchase their
merchandise from MacTavish, though most do in order to take advantage of
company-offered financing and favorable delivery terms.
Corporate Furnishings
SALO Organization
Structure
The Aarons Sales and Lease Ownership division currently has 11 regional
vice presidents who are responsible for monitoring individual store
performance and inventory levels within their respective regions. Each
regional vice president reports to the president of the Sales and Lease
Ownership Division. This role is currently filled by Ken Butler, who was
recently promoted to chief operating officer of the company, as well.
Stores are directly supervised by 106 SALO regional managers, four RIMCO
managers and three office furnishings regional managers. At the individual
store level, store managers are responsible for the day-to-day operations of
the company, including but not limited to customer and collection relations,
deliveries and pickups, warehouse and inventory management, and limited
marketing efforts.
Aaron Rents
34
Aarons competition consists of both other rent-to-own dealers and some home
furnishings retailers to a lesser extent. Management also notes that it
sometimes competes with apartment landlords who purchase furniture to rent
with apartments.
Despite the perception of competition with other mainline retailers in some
instances, a typical Aarons customer tends to be drawn to RTO because he or
she is usually unable to obtain credit from traditional sources and/or does not
have the necessary cash to make the big-ticket purchase. If, and as, larger
numbers of consumers migrate into this category following the fallout from the
recent economic downturn, Aarons potential market expands.
The rent-to-own industry is fragmented with approximately 8,500 stores
nationwide. Of the ~$6.8 billion in annual revenue, roughly 50% is generated
by the publicly-traded companies, with the other half coming from smaller
mom-and-pop locations. A more detailed industry examination is presented
in our Appendix at the end of this report, for those interested readers.
Aaron Rents
35
36
Aaron Rents
37
Board of Directors
Recent Results
Last Year
Reported
265.6
8.8
76.5
10.4
3.4
$364.7
$5.4
$70.4
97.9
$191.0
52.4%
165.9
45.5%
293.2
10.8
87.1
12.0
1.8
$404.9
$6.5
$80.1
106.3
$211.9
52.3%
176.6
43.6%
$25.1
$35.3
6.9%
2.3
$22.8
6.3%
8.5
37.4%
(1.2)
-0.3%
$15.5
4.2%
54.8
8.7%
1.2
$34.1
8.4%
13.1
38.4%
(0.0)
0.0%
$21.0
5.2%
54.2
EPS, GAAP
$0.28
$0.39
3.9%
1,076
9,684
282.3
571.8
0.53
2.23
59.0
6.2%
1,053
9,477
313.2
679.6
0.65
2.14
71.7
Year-over-Year Change
10.4%
22.9%
13.9%
15.0%
-46.6%
11.0%
21.9%
13.8%
8.6%
11.0%
-3 basis pts
EPS vs.
Last Year
$0.02
$0.00
$0.01
$0.00
($0.00)
$0.03
($0.00)
$0.09
41.1%
$0.12
$0.01
($0.01)
($0.02)
35.6%
94 basis pts
(0.6)
$0.10
$0.00
$0.10
37.1%
230 bps
-2.1%
-2.1%
11.0%
18.8%
0.11
-0.10
12.7
Aaron Rents
38
Last Year
Reported
265.6
8.8
76.5
10.4
3.4
$364.7
293.2
10.8
87.1
12.0
1.8
$404.9
$191.0
0.0
$191.0
$211.9
0.0
$211.9
52.3%
165.6
0.0
165.6
45.4%
43.6%
$35.3
0.0
$25.4
7.0%
$35.3
8.7%
2.3
1.2
8.8
Tax Rate
37.9%
$0.02
$0.00
$0.01
$0.00
($0.00)
$0.03
11.0%
11.0%
-3 basis pts
($0.00)
$0.08
39.3%
$0.11
39.3%
177 basis pts
$0.01
-45.8%
13.1
38.4%
$15.5
(1.1)
$14.4
3.9%
176.6
0.0
176.6
$25.4
0.0
52.4%
Year-over-Year Change
10.4%
22.9%
13.9%
15.0%
-46.6%
11.0%
$21.0
(0.0)
$21.0
5.2%
54 basis pts
($0.00)
35.6%
$0.12
46.3%
125 basis pts
54.8
54.2
(0.6)
EPS, GAAP
EPS, Analytical Items
$0.28
(0.02)
$0.39
(0.00)
37.0%
$0.26
$0.39
47.9%
$0.00
$0.13
In its 4Q08 report, management issued guidance for 1Q09 which called for
revenues in excess of $445 million and EPS in the range of $0.49 to $0.54 and
2009 EPS guidance of $1.72 to $1.87. The 2009 guidance was raised higher
when issued with the 4Q08 report.
39
Aaron Rents
40
Technical Analysis
Raymond James technical analyst, Art Huprich, CMT, offers the following
commentary about the opportunity in RNT:
While most of the major stock market indices record multi-year lows, RNT
is trading above its October and November 2008 lows and was actually
up in February. This is excellent relative price action versus the S&P 500.
If this trend continues, when the stock market finally starts moving higher,
the odds would favor that RNT is a leading stock.
In the meantime, important short-term buying interest (support) exists
closer to $20.87. Please respect this level.
Aaron Rents
41
Ticker
AEA
BRK.A
BKC
CSH
CPWM
DELL
HVT
HPQ
MCD
PIR
RCII
SNE
Priced as of
03/02/09
$0.95
75,750.00
21.55
13.54
0.69
8.43
8.13
28.07
51.85
0.20
16.85
16.46
RJ&A Rating
(if Applicable)
Market Perform
Outperform
Market Perform
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Aaron Rents
42
Aaron Rents
$1.41
Dividends:
Common Shares
TFQ Dividends to Common
Class A Common Shares
TFQ Dividends to Class A Common
EBITDA:
EBITDA
TFQ EBITDA
TFQ EBITDA per Share
Gross Margins:
Rental and Fees Gross Margin
As a % of rental and fee sales
Retail Sales Gross Margin
As a % of retail sales
Non-retail Sales Gross Margin
As a % of non-retail sales
Overall Gross Margin
As a % of reported total sales
$0.060
$0.060
162.9
$654.3
62.6%
$13.4
38.7%
$21.8
8.3%
$742.4
53.2%
54.2
55.0
54.5
$1.28
$1.48
$1.46
($0.18)
Rest'd
FY07
52
12/31/07
$1,045.8
$34.6
$261.6
$38.8
$14.2
$1,394.9
$21.2
$239.8
$617.1
$391.5
$125.3
$7.6
$117.8
$44.3
$73.4
$6.9
$80.3
($9.9)
$70.3
EPS
Basic GAAP
Diluted GAAP
Impact of Disc Ops and Unusual Items
$0.016
$0.061
$0.016
$0.061
51.0
159.8
$2.95
$190.0
63.4%
$5.0
40.0%
$7.5
8.8%
$217.6
52.7%
53.5
54.2
53.3
$0.46
$0.42
$0.46
$0.46
($0.04)
Rest'd
1Q08
13
3/31/08
$299.7
12.4
85.4
11.0
4.2
$412.7
7.4
77.9
177.8
109.7
$39.8
2.2
$37.6
15.1
22.6
2.2
$24.8
(2.2)
$22.6
$0.016
$0.062
$0.016
$0.062
48.7
168.8
$3.12
$187.8
63.7%
$3.6
36.9%
$5.5
8.3%
$213.4
55.1%
53.3
54.1
53.3
$0.39
$0.39
$0.44
$0.43
($0.04)
Rest'd
2Q08
13
6/30/08
$294.8
9.7
66.1
10.9
5.5
$387.0
6.1
60.6
175.8
106.9
$37.5
2.2
$35.4
13.0
22.4
0.9
$23.3
(2.2)
$21.1
$0.016
$0.063
$0.016
$0.063
45.0
180.9
$3.34
$184.1
63.3%
$4.0
38.7%
$5.9
8.4%
$210.0
54.1%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.39
$0.36
$0.40
$0.39
($0.03)
3Q08
13
9/30/08
$291.1
10.2
70.7
11.1
4.9
$388.0
6.3
64.8
175.3
107.0
$34.7
2.2
$32.5
12.6
19.8
1.2
$21.1
(1.6)
$19.5
$0.016
$0.064
$0.016
$0.064
44.1
188.9
$3.48
$186.9
63.7%
$4.3
39.6%
$7.0
8.0%
$211.9
52.3%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.39
$0.39
$0.39
$0.39
($0.00)
4Q08
13
12/31/08
$293.2
10.8
87.1
12.0
1.8
$404.9
6.5
80.1
176.6
106.3
$35.3
1.2
$34.1
13.1
21.0
0.0
$21.0
(0.0)
$21.0
$0.064
$0.064
188.9
$748.8
63.5%
$16.8
38.9%
$26.0
8.4%
$853.0
53.6%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$1.63
$1.55
$1.69
$1.66
($0.11)
FY08
52
12/31/08
$1,178.7
43.2
309.3
$45.0
16.4
$1,592.6
26.4
283.4
705.6
429.9
$147.4
7.8
$139.6
53.8
85.8
4.4
$90.1
(6.0)
$84.1
$0.017
$0.065
$0.017
$0.065
55.3
193.2
$3.56
$200.9
63.5%
$5.0
39.0%
$8.6
8.3%
$232.0
51.5%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.49
$0.49
$0.017
$0.066
$0.017
$0.066
52.7
197.1
$3.64
$197.9
63.5%
$3.6
35.9%
$6.5
7.8%
$226.8
53.5%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.45
$0.45
$0.46
$0.45
$0.00
$24.4
0.0
$24.4
$26.5
0.0
$26.5
$0.50
$0.49
$0.00
Est.
2Q09
13
6/30/09
$311.6
10.1
83.1
12.3
6.5
$423.6
6.5
76.6
184.9
113.7
$41.8
2.2
$39.6
15.3
24.4
Est.
1Q09
13
3/31/09
$316.5
12.9
103.4
12.3
5.2
$450.1
7.8
94.8
186.9
115.5
$45.1
2.1
$43.0
16.6
26.5
$0.017
$0.067
$0.017
$0.067
51.3
203.4
$3.75
$195.9
63.5%
$4.1
37.7%
$7.1
7.9%
$225.7
52.8%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.43
$0.43
$0.44
$0.43
$0.00
$23.6
0.0
$23.6
Est.
3Q09
13
9/30/09
$308.4
10.7
89.9
12.8
5.9
$427.8
6.7
82.8
185.3
112.6
$40.4
2.1
$38.3
14.8
23.6
$0.017
$0.068
$0.017
$0.068
50.4
209.7
$3.87
$201.7
63.5%
$4.5
38.6%
$8.4
7.5%
$231.2
50.5%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.42
$0.42
$0.43
$0.42
$0.00
$23.0
0.0
$23.0
Est.
4Q09
13
12/31/09
$317.7
11.7
112.0
13.7
2.8
$457.9
7.2
103.6
191.8
116.0
$39.4
2.1
$37.4
14.4
23.0
$0.068
$0.068
209.7
$796.4
63.5%
$17.2
37.9%
$30.6
7.9%
$915.7
52.0%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$1.80
$1.80
$1.83
$1.80
$0.00
Est.
FY09
52
12/31/09
$1,254.2
45.4
388.4
$51.1
20.4
$1,759.4
28.2
357.8
748.9
457.8
$166.8
8.4
$158.4
61.0
97.4
0.0
$97.4
0.0
$97.4
$0.017
$0.068
$0.017
$0.068
64.7
219.1
$4.04
$214.9
63.5%
$5.6
39.2%
$10.7
8.5%
$251.9
50.4%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.56
$0.56
$0.57
$0.56
$0.00
$30.4
0.0
$30.4
Est.
1Q10
13
3/31/10
$338.4
14.2
126.1
15.1
5.7
$499.4
8.6
115.4
200.0
123.5
$51.9
2.5
$49.4
19.0
30.4
$0.017
$0.068
$0.017
$0.068
60.2
226.7
$4.18
$212.5
63.5%
$4.1
36.1%
$8.0
8.0%
$246.3
52.7%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.51
$0.51
$0.51
$0.51
$0.00
$27.4
0.0
$27.4
Est.
2Q10
13
6/30/10
$334.6
11.2
99.7
14.7
7.0
$467.3
7.2
91.7
199.3
122.1
$46.9
2.4
$44.5
17.2
27.4
$0.017
$0.068
$0.017
$0.068
58.7
234.2
$4.32
$211.4
63.5%
$4.5
37.9%
$8.7
8.1%
$246.8
52.1%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.49
$0.49
$0.50
$0.49
$0.00
$26.7
0.0
$26.7
Est.
3Q10
13
9/30/10
$332.9
11.9
106.9
15.9
6.4
$474.0
7.4
98.3
201.2
121.5
$45.6
2.3
$43.3
16.7
26.7
$0.017
$0.068
$0.017
$0.068
60.2
243.9
$4.50
$217.3
63.5%
$5.0
38.8%
$10.2
7.7%
$252.2
49.8%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$0.51
$0.51
$0.52
$0.51
$0.00
$27.6
0.0
$27.6
Est.
4Q10
13
12/31/10
$342.2
13.0
131.5
16.4
3.2
$506.4
8.0
121.4
205.1
124.9
$47.1
2.2
$44.8
17.3
27.6
$0.068
$0.068
243.9
$856.0
63.5%
$19.2
38.1%
$37.6
8.1%
$997.2
51.2%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$2.07
$2.07
$2.10
$2.07
$0.00
Est.
FY10
52
12/31/10
$1,348.1
50.4
464.3
$62.2
22.3
$1,947.1
31.2
426.7
805.6
492.1
$191.5
9.4
$182.1
70.1
112.0
0.0
$112.0
0.0
$112.0
$0.068
$0.068
268.8
$916.7
63.5%
$21.3
38.2%
$45.5
8.6%
$1,079.8
50.8%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$2.26
$2.26
$2.30
$2.26
$0.00
Est.
FY11
52
12/31/11
$1,443.7
55.7
530.1
$74.0
22.3
$2,125.7
34.4
484.5
871.1
527.0
$208.7
9.2
$199.5
76.8
122.7
0.0
$122.7
0.0
$122.7
$0.068
$0.068
292.3
$979.1
63.5%
$23.5
38.3%
$54.4
9.1%
$1,165.7
50.5%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$2.45
$2.45
$2.49
$2.45
$0.00
Est.
FY12
52
12/31/12
$1,541.9
61.4
598.4
$86.4
22.3
$2,310.3
37.9
544.0
940.0
562.8
$225.7
9.5
$216.2
83.2
133.0
0.0
$133.0
0.0
$133.0
$0.068
$0.068
321.0
$1,044.0
63.5%
$25.9
38.4%
$64.2
9.6%
$1,256.5
50.2%
53.4
54.2
53.3
$2.73
$2.73
$2.78
$2.73
$0.00
Est.
FY13
52
12/31/13
$1,644.2
67.5
669.2
$100.0
22.3
$2,503.2
41.5
605.0
1,007.6
600.2
$248.9
8.0
$240.9
92.7
148.1
0.0
$148.1
0.0
$148.1
Aaron Rents
43
Aaron Rents
1,076
4.36
9.8%
$1,056.4
$88.0
-9.0%
609,519
583.0
-3.1%
927,078
613.8
-0.2%
$147.78
-7.7%
$337.5
5.6%
5.3%
-44.5%
16.5%
15.4%
5.9%
5.2%
-48.6%
15.7%
6.5%
6.5%
7.5%
-6.8%
-22.0%
-5.6%
2.1%
-10.5%
Y/Y Growth:
Comp Store Sales
Rentals and Fees
Retail Sales
Non-Retail Sales
Franchise Royalties and Fees
Other, Reported
Total Revenue, Reported
Retail Cost of Sales
Non-Retail Cost of Sales
Operating Expense, Reported
Operating Expense, Normalized
Depreciation of Rental Merchandise
EBIT
Interest Expense
Pre-tax Income
Net Income, GAAP
Net Income, Analytically Adjusted
Other Statistics
Number of Company Owned Stores Ending
Period-end Company owned Square Footage (mil)
Yr/Yr Chg in Square Footage
Rentals and Fees per average company owned store (000s)
Monthly rentals and fees per avg store
Y/Y Change
Ending Customer Count - company owned
Customer count per average store - company owned
Y/Y Change
Ending Customer Count - all stores
Customer count per average store - all stores
Y/Y Change
Average rental per customer - company owned
Y/Y Change
Last 4Q Sales/Avg. Sq. Footage
ROIC, Beginning
ROIC Average
75.0%
2.5%
18.8%
2.8%
1.0%
100.0%
1.5%
17.2%
44.2%
44.2%
28.1%
37.4%
9.0%
9.0%
0.5%
8.4%
37.6%
5.8%
-0.7%
5.0%
FY07
52
12/31/07
Rest'd
Weeks in Period
Period Ended
Common Size Income Statement:
Rentals and Fees
Retail Sales
Non-Retail Sales
Franchise Royalties and Fees
Other
Total Revenue
Retail Cost of Sales
Non-Retail Cost of Sales
Operating Expense, Reported
Operating Expense, Normalized
Depreciation of Rental Merchandise
Depreciation of Rental Merchandise as % of R&F
EBIT Margin, GAAP
EBIT Margin, Normalized
Interest Expense
Pre-tax Margin
Tax Rate
Net Income Margin, GAAP
Unusual Items
Net Income Margin, Analytically Adjusted
4.1%
14.6%
24.5%
16.6%
13.5%
116.8%
15.9%
24.2%
16.2%
17.7%
17.7%
10.2%
24.0%
26.9%
23.8%
18.4%
19.0%
76.2%
2.5%
17.1%
2.8%
1.4%
100.0%
1.6%
15.7%
45.4%
45.4%
27.6%
36.3%
9.7%
9.7%
0.6%
9.1%
36.8%
6.0%
-0.6%
5.5%
2Q08
13
6/30/08
Rest'd
5.7%
13.1%
32.6%
21.6%
25.3%
188.4%
16.3%
37.8%
22.0%
13.5%
13.5%
10.0%
42.2%
15.3%
44.5%
32.4%
37.4%
75.0%
2.6%
18.2%
2.9%
1.3%
100.0%
1.6%
16.7%
45.2%
45.2%
27.6%
36.7%
8.9%
8.9%
0.6%
8.4%
38.9%
5.4%
-0.4%
5.0%
3Q08
13
9/30/08
Prel.
6.2%
10.4%
22.9%
13.9%
15.0%
-46.6%
11.0%
21.9%
13.8%
6.6%
6.6%
8.6%
39.3%
-45.8%
47.7%
35.7%
46.4%
72.4%
2.7%
21.5%
3.0%
0.4%
100.0%
1.6%
19.8%
43.6%
43.6%
26.3%
36.3%
8.7%
8.7%
0.3%
8.4%
38.4%
5.2%
0.0%
5.2%
4Q08
13
12/31/08
Prel.
4.6%
12.7%
24.9%
18.3%
16.0%
15.5%
14.2%
24.4%
18.2%
14.3%
14.3%
9.8%
17.6%
3.0%
18.5%
12.3%
19.6%
74.0%
2.7%
19.4%
2.8%
1.0%
100.0%
1.7%
17.8%
44.3%
44.3%
27.0%
36.5%
9.3%
9.3%
0.5%
8.8%
38.6%
5.7%
-0.4%
5.3%
FY08
52
12/31/08
1,053
1,074
1,084
1,073
1,053
4.54
4.40
4.38
4.60
4.54
8.4%
6.8%
14.6%
4.1%
4.1%
$1,107.3
$278.8
$273.2
$269.9
$275.8
$92.3
$92.9
$91.1
$90.0
$91.9
4.8%
-4.3%
-0.6%
3.1%
8.6%
740,278
634,616
668,718
676,528
740,278
696.4
590.3
619.8
627.3
696.4
19.5%
-2.6%
1.8%
4.7%
19.5%
963,968 1,009,550 1,035,297 1,103,312 1,103,312
702.5
617.3
644.3
656.3
702.5
14.5%
-0.3%
3.7%
7.3%
14.5%
$137.95
$160.58
$150.78
$144.26
$137.95
-1.7%
-1.3%
-2.6%
-6.7%
-6.7%
$355.5
$342.5
$349.3
$350.0
$355.5
9.8%
10.1%
10.3%
10.5%
9.0%
9.2%
9.7%
10.2%
2.6%
12.7%
21.0%
21.6%
11.3%
-36.6%
13.8%
17.1%
21.5%
20.4%
20.4%
10.5%
-12.1%
30.3%
-13.7%
-15.2%
-6.4%
72.6%
3.0%
20.7%
2.7%
1.0%
100.0%
1.8%
18.9%
43.1%
43.1%
26.6%
36.6%
9.6%
9.6%
0.5%
9.1%
40.0%
6.0%
-0.5%
5.5%
1Q08
13
3/31/08
Rest'd
Est.
$357.5
10.8%
10.5%
1,061
4.72
7.3%
$299.4
$99.8
7.4%
5.5%
5.6%
3.7%
21.1%
11.0%
24.0%
9.1%
5.5%
21.7%
5.1%
5.1%
5.3%
13.3%
-6.0%
14.4%
6.9%
17.3%
70.3%
2.9%
23.0%
2.7%
1.1%
100.0%
1.7%
21.1%
41.5%
41.5%
25.7%
36.5%
10.0%
10.0%
0.5%
9.6%
38.5%
5.9%
0.0%
5.9%
1Q09
13
3/31/09
Est.
$354.9
10.4%
10.4%
1,069
4.93
12.5%
$292.6
$97.5
7.1%
5.0%
5.7%
3.6%
25.8%
12.5%
18.1%
9.5%
5.3%
26.5%
5.2%
5.2%
6.4%
11.4%
1.8%
12.0%
4.7%
15.4%
73.6%
2.4%
19.6%
2.9%
1.5%
100.0%
1.5%
18.1%
43.7%
43.7%
26.9%
36.5%
9.9%
9.9%
0.5%
9.4%
38.5%
5.8%
0.0%
5.8%
2Q09
13
6/30/09
Est.
$354.9
11.2%
10.7%
1,087
5.05
9.7%
$286.1
$95.4
6.0%
5.0%
6.0%
5.0%
27.2%
15.5%
20.5%
10.3%
6.7%
27.9%
5.7%
5.7%
5.3%
16.4%
-7.7%
18.1%
11.8%
21.2%
72.1%
2.5%
21.0%
3.0%
1.4%
100.0%
1.6%
19.4%
43.3%
43.3%
26.3%
36.5%
9.4%
9.4%
0.5%
9.0%
38.5%
5.5%
0.0%
5.5%
3Q09
13
9/30/09
Est.
$353.6
11.7%
10.7%
1,105
5.21
14.8%
$289.9
$96.6
5.1%
5.0%
8.4%
8.3%
28.5%
14.4%
55.7%
13.1%
10.1%
29.2%
8.6%
8.6%
9.1%
11.5%
68.5%
9.5%
9.3%
9.3%
69.4%
2.6%
24.5%
3.0%
0.6%
100.0%
1.6%
22.6%
41.9%
41.9%
25.3%
36.5%
8.6%
8.6%
0.5%
8.2%
38.5%
5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
4Q09
13
12/31/09
Est.
$353.6
1,105
5.21
14.8%
$1,162.4
$96.9
5.0%
5.1%
6.4%
5.1%
25.6%
13.4%
24.5%
10.5%
6.8%
26.3%
6.1%
6.1%
6.5%
13.1%
7.3%
13.5%
8.1%
15.7%
71.3%
2.6%
22.1%
2.9%
1.2%
100.0%
1.6%
20.3%
42.6%
42.6%
26.0%
36.5%
9.5%
9.5%
0.5%
9.0%
38.5%
5.5%
0.0%
5.5%
FY09
52
12/31/09
Est.
$352.5
11.3%
10.7%
1,120
5.34
13.2%
$304.2
$101.4
1.6%
5.0%
6.9%
10.5%
21.9%
23.1%
9.7%
11.0%
10.2%
21.7%
7.0%
7.0%
6.9%
15.1%
20.6%
14.8%
14.8%
14.8%
67.8%
2.8%
25.2%
3.0%
1.1%
100.0%
1.7%
23.1%
40.0%
40.0%
24.7%
36.5%
10.4%
10.4%
0.5%
9.9%
38.5%
6.1%
0.0%
6.1%
1Q10
13
3/31/10
Est.
$351.6
11.2%
10.7%
1,135
5.48
11.1%
$296.8
$98.9
1.4%
5.0%
7.4%
11.2%
20.0%
20.1%
7.7%
10.3%
10.8%
19.7%
7.8%
7.8%
7.4%
12.2%
8.0%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
71.6%
2.4%
21.3%
3.2%
1.5%
100.0%
1.5%
19.6%
42.7%
42.7%
26.1%
36.5%
10.0%
10.0%
0.5%
9.5%
38.5%
5.9%
0.0%
5.9%
2Q10
13
6/30/10
Est.
$350.9
11.4%
10.7%
1,150
5.61
11.2%
$291.3
$97.1
1.8%
5.0%
7.9%
11.3%
19.0%
23.7%
8.5%
10.8%
10.9%
18.7%
8.5%
8.5%
7.9%
13.0%
11.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
70.2%
2.5%
22.6%
3.4%
1.3%
100.0%
1.6%
20.7%
42.4%
42.4%
25.6%
36.5%
9.6%
9.6%
0.5%
9.1%
38.5%
5.6%
0.0%
5.6%
3Q10
13
9/30/10
Est.
$351.1
11.6%
10.9%
1,165
5.75
10.4%
$295.7
$98.6
2.0%
5.0%
7.7%
10.9%
17.4%
20.2%
14.3%
10.6%
10.5%
17.2%
6.9%
6.9%
7.7%
19.4%
8.9%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
67.6%
2.6%
26.0%
3.2%
0.6%
100.0%
1.6%
24.0%
40.5%
40.5%
24.7%
36.5%
9.3%
9.3%
0.4%
8.9%
38.5%
5.4%
0.0%
5.4%
4Q10
13
12/31/10
Est.
$351.1
1,165
5.75
10.4%
$1,187.7
$99.0
2.2%
5.0%
7.5%
10.9%
19.5%
21.7%
9.3%
10.7%
10.6%
19.3%
7.6%
7.6%
7.5%
14.9%
12.1%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
69.2%
2.6%
23.8%
3.2%
1.1%
100.0%
1.6%
21.9%
41.4%
41.4%
25.3%
36.5%
9.8%
9.8%
0.5%
9.4%
38.5%
5.8%
0.0%
5.8%
FY10
52
12/31/10
Est.
$345.5
1,237
6.40
11.3%
$1,202.1
$100.2
1.2%
4.5%
7.1%
10.6%
14.2%
19.1%
0.0%
9.2%
10.4%
13.5%
8.1%
8.1%
7.1%
8.9%
-1.9%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
67.9%
2.6%
24.9%
3.5%
1.0%
100.0%
1.6%
22.8%
41.0%
41.0%
24.8%
36.5%
9.8%
9.8%
0.4%
9.4%
38.5%
5.8%
0.0%
5.8%
FY11
52
12/31/11
Est.
$339.7
1,309
7.04
10.1%
$1,211.2
$100.9
0.8%
4.0%
6.8%
10.2%
12.9%
16.8%
0.0%
8.7%
10.1%
12.3%
7.9%
7.9%
6.8%
8.1%
2.4%
8.4%
8.4%
8.4%
66.7%
2.7%
25.9%
3.7%
1.0%
100.0%
1.6%
23.5%
40.7%
40.7%
24.4%
36.5%
9.8%
9.8%
0.4%
9.4%
38.5%
5.8%
0.0%
5.8%
FY12
52
12/31/12
Est.
$336.0
1,381
7.69
9.2%
$1,222.5
$101.9
0.9%
4.0%
6.6%
9.9%
11.8%
15.8%
0.0%
8.3%
9.7%
11.2%
7.2%
7.2%
6.6%
10.3%
-15.5%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
65.7%
2.7%
26.7%
4.0%
0.9%
100.0%
1.7%
24.2%
40.3%
40.3%
24.0%
36.5%
9.9%
9.9%
0.3%
9.6%
38.5%
5.9%
0.0%
5.9%
FY13
52
12/31/13
Aaron Rents
44
Aaron Rents
673.4
DuPont Analysis
Profit Margin (TFQ Net Inc/TFQ Sales)
Asset Turnover (TFQ sales / ending assets)
Return on Assets, ending
Financial Leverage Ratio
Return on Equity, ending
Statistics:
A/R, in days sales (qtr annualized)
Net Rental Merchandise, days sales (annualized)
Total Company Owned Stores, End of Pd.
Ending Inventory/Ending Store
Accounts Payable, in days CGS (TFQ)
Accounts Payable % Inventory
Net Working Capital % of TFQ Sales
Cash Conversion Cycle (Annualized, days sales)
Current Ratio
Debt % Capital
Debt/EBITDA
TFQ EBITDA / TFQ Interest Exp
Book Value per share
Tangible Book per share
Allowance for doubtful accounts as % of Sales
5.0%
1.3
6.3%
1.7
10.4%
12
150
1,076
0.5
40.3
24.7%
13.3%
120
1.4
21.6%
5.1
21.5
$12.29
$9.61
1.1%
$1,113.2
141.0
0.9
82.3
27.8
185.8
2.0
439.8
245.9
141.9
4.8
36.9
58.9
$1,113.2
$5.2
47.7
922.6
(350.7)
571.8
624.8
Rest'd
4Q07
13
12/31/07
691.2
4.8%
1.3
6.0%
1.7
10.0%
12
145
1,074
0.6
42.3
23.5%
17.8%
123
1.6
20.8%
3.6
19.7
$12.98
$10.05
0.7%
$1,151.0
4.8%
1.3
6.1%
1.7
10.1%
12
162
1,084
0.6
34.1
18.7%
17.8%
143
1.6
23.1%
4.4
19.7
$13.43
$10.27
0.9%
$1,191.0
715.0
128.9
0.9
101.4
30.6
214.2
0.0
476.0
$1,191.0
$1,151.0
154.5
0.9
91.9
30.7
182.0
0.0
459.8
241.0
162.6
5.5
38.5
$6.0
49.5
1,082.2
(394.4)
687.7
743.3
2Q08
13
6/30/08
246.7
150.6
5.2
30.9
$7.1
53.2
1,028.2
(370.9)
657.3
717.6
1Q08
13
3/31/08
5.0%
1.3
6.6%
1.6
10.5%
11
148
1,073
0.6
32.4
20.1%
16.5%
130
1.6
17.2%
3.4
20.4
$13.89
$10.77
1.0%
$1,169.6
739.8
126.5
0.0
121.1
27.9
153.4
0.8
429.8
212.3
160.8
5.5
45.6
59.8
$1,169.6
$6.6
48.5
1,020.3
(389.9)
630.4
685.5
3Q08
13
9/30/08
5.3%
1.3
6.8%
1.6
11.0%
13
153
1,053
0.6
43.7
25.5%
17.3%
128
1.6
13.1%
2.6
24.2
$14.30
$10.67
1.0%
5.4%
1.3
6.9%
1.6
11.2%
12
145
1,061
0.7
38.3
21.9%
17.5%
125
1.6
16.7%
2.9
25.1
$14.78
$11.11
0.0%
787.0
$1,282.5
761.5
156.0
0.9
148.6
32.1
157.8
0.0
495.5
239.2
188.0
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,282.5
$9.5
58.0
1,099.4
(386.5)
712.9
780.4
Est.
1Q09
13
3/31/09
$1,233.3
173.9
0.9
148.6
33.4
114.8
0.0
471.7
224.4
186.0
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,233.3
$7.4
59.5
1,074.8
(393.7)
681.1
748.0
4Q08
13
12/31/08
5.5%
1.3
7.0%
1.6
11.3%
12
155
1,069
0.7
34.0
19.6%
17.5%
136
1.6
17.1%
3.2
25.5
$15.22
$11.51
0.0%
$1,302.8
810.4
141.4
0.9
148.6
34.6
166.8
0.0
492.4
253.3
190.0
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,302.8
$9.6
54.2
1,122.7
(402.0)
720.8
784.6
Est.
2Q09
13
6/30/09
5.6%
1.3
7.2%
1.6
11.5%
11
155
1,087
0.7
36.1
21.1%
17.5%
134
1.6
15.7%
3.0
26.9
$15.64
$11.90
0.0%
$1,323.1
832.9
153.4
0.9
148.6
32.4
154.8
0.0
490.2
267.5
192.0
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,323.1
$9.3
53.4
1,097.3
(371.2)
726.0
788.8
Est.
3Q09
13
9/30/09
5.5%
1.3
7.1%
1.6
11.4%
13
149
1,105
0.7
40.2
23.6%
17.3%
127
1.6
15.5%
3.1
25.0
$16.05
$12.27
0.0%
$1,372.7
854.9
176.5
0.9
148.6
34.9
156.8
0.0
517.8
281.5
194.0
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,372.7
$6.4
67.3
1,097.6
(349.0)
748.6
822.3
Est.
4Q09
13
12/31/09
5.6%
1.3
7.2%
1.6
11.5%
12
143
1,120
0.7
36.3
20.9%
17.7%
124
1.6
17.4%
2.9
24.9
$16.60
$12.78
0.0%
$1,416.9
884.2
163.4
0.9
148.6
32.9
186.8
0.0
532.7
293.6
196.1
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,416.9
$7.7
64.4
1,108.8
(328.5)
780.3
852.3
Est.
1Q10
13
3/31/10
5.6%
1.3
7.3%
1.6
11.5%
12
153
1,135
0.7
33.5
19.7%
17.9%
134
1.6
16.3%
2.9
25.2
$17.10
$13.24
0.0%
$1,428.8
910.6
154.6
0.9
148.6
37.3
176.8
0.0
518.2
305.3
198.1
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,428.8
$7.2
59.8
1,123.7
(340.3)
783.5
850.5
Est.
2Q10
13
6/30/10
5.7%
1.3
7.4%
1.6
11.5%
11
153
1,150
0.7
34.2
20.3%
18.1%
133
1.7
15.5%
2.9
25.4
$17.58
$13.68
0.0%
$1,454.1
936.1
161.5
0.9
148.6
35.1
171.8
0.0
517.9
317.2
200.0
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,454.1
$8.5
59.2
1,086.6
(292.4)
794.2
861.9
Est.
3Q10
13
9/30/10
5.8%
1.3
7.4%
1.6
11.6%
13
149
1,165
0.7
40.6
23.7%
18.3%
127
1.6
14.8%
2.8
25.9
$18.08
$14.14
0.0%
$1,513.7
962.6
196.1
0.9
148.6
38.7
166.8
0.0
551.1
329.1
202.1
7.5
67.4
0.0
$1,513.7
$6.8
74.4
1,079.6
(253.3)
826.3
907.6
Est.
4Q10
13
12/31/10
5.8%
1.3
7.4%
1.5
11.3%
13
152
1,237
0.7
38.5
22.1%
20.5%
132
1.8
14.2%
2.7
29.1
$20.29
$16.21
0.0%
$1,653.1
1,080.8
203.4
0.9
148.6
40.5
178.8
0.0
572.2
369.0
210.2
7.5
57.4
0.0
$1,653.1
$6.8
81.3
1,035.2
(114.3)
920.8
1,008.9
Est.
4Q11
13
12/31/11
5.8%
1.3
7.4%
1.5
11.0%
13
153
1,309
0.8
37.8
21.5%
22.7%
134
1.9
12.6%
2.4
30.9
$22.70
$18.46
0.0%
$1,792.3
1,209.0
216.7
0.9
148.6
43.2
173.8
0.0
583.3
402.3
218.3
7.5
57.4
0.0
$1,792.3
$8.8
88.3
945.6
64.0
1,009.6
1,106.8
Est.
4Q12
13
12/31/12
5.9%
1.3
7.7%
1.4
11.0%
13
153
1,381
0.8
36.5
20.6%
25.2%
135
2.1
9.8%
1.8
40.2
$25.40
$21.00
0.0%
$1,920.2
1,352.4
225.9
0.9
148.6
45.4
146.8
0.0
567.7
430.2
226.4
7.5
57.4
0.0
$1,920.2
$8.5
95.7
809.0
285.5
1,094.5
1,198.7
Est.
4Q12
13
12/31/13
Aaron Rents
45
Aaron Rents
$109.1
($155.7)
($32.4)
($35.7)
($3.6)
8.8
$5.2
0.7
(0.6)
$0.1
0.0
55.9
(3.2)
0.0
(13.4)
0.8
2.9
$42.9
Discontinued Operations
Operating Activities
Investing Activities
CASH FLOW FROM DISCONTINUED OPS
(141.5)
(57.3)
36.3
6.9
($155.7)
$31.8
($18.4)
$9.8
$8.9
$1.8
5.2
$7.1
0.0
0.0
$0.0
0.0
(3.9)
(0.9)
0.0
(7.5)
0.1
0.7
($11.5)
(22.0)
(14.7)
11.5
6.7
($18.4)
109.7
11.2
(238.2)
92.6
9.6
0.0
0.4
(2.3)
(0.5)
12.4
(1.2)
(0.1)
7.9
0.9
0.4
0.3
6.1
$31.8
($13.3)
($20.2)
($25.2)
($26.0)
($1.1)
7.1
$6.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
0.0
32.2
(0.9)
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.9
$32.4
(11.9)
(22.6)
6.7
7.6
($20.2)
106.9
11.2
(228.3)
92.5
9.6
0.0
0.7
(3.4)
0.5
(27.3)
3.6
(0.1)
(6.8)
(0.0)
0.4
0.0
4.9
($13.3)
$22.4
$22.6
2Q08
13
6/30/08
1Q08
13
3/31/08
$80.3
FY07
52
12/31/07
407.3
37.6
(706.7)
305.0
(11.4)
0.0
(4.7)
(2.9)
0.0
19.9
(8.5)
(0.8)
(8.4)
2.7
2.8
(2.9)
(0.1)
$109.1
$32.3
$23.9
$17.6
$15.9
$0.6
6.0
$6.6
2.7
(0.3)
$2.4
0.0
(60.7)
(1.7)
0.0
0.0
0.8
3.6
($58.1)
(14.7)
(1.0)
31.8
7.9
$23.9
107.0
10.3
(168.2)
70.8
19.7
0.0
0.4
(2.6)
(7.2)
2.5
(3.2)
(0.8)
(5.4)
(0.8)
0.0
1.0
(11.1)
$32.3
$19.8
3Q08
13
9/30/08
$28.4
$12.5
$2.1
$2.1
$1.3
6.1
$7.4
(6.2)
3.0
($3.2)
0.0
(38.6)
(0.0)
0.0
0.0
0.8
1.3
($36.5)
(26.4)
(42.7)
4.5
77.0
$12.5
106.3
8.8
(231.1)
74.2
27.5
0.0
0.2
(0.1)
(21.3)
47.8
(12.5)
(0.8)
3.4
4.7
0.6
(0.3)
0.1
$28.4
$21.0
4Q08
13
12/31/08
$79.3
($2.2)
$4.3
$0.9
$2.6
$4.8
$7.4
($3.5)
$2.7
($0.8)
$0.0
($71.0)
($3.4)
$0.0
($7.5)
$1.8
$6.5
($73.7)
($74.9)
($80.9)
$54.5
$99.2
($2.2)
$429.9
$41.5
($865.9)
$330.0
$66.3
$0.0
$1.7
($8.5)
($28.4)
$35.4
($13.2)
($1.8)
($0.9)
$4.8
$1.4
$1.1
$0.0
$79.3
$85.8
FY08
52
12/31/08
($12.8)
($27.0)
($37.8)
($38.8)
$2.1
7.4
$9.5
$0.0
43.0
(1.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$42.0
$19.1
($27.0)
($5.9)
($7.0)
$0.1
9.5
$9.6
$0.0
9.0
(1.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$8.0
($27.0)
15.5
$19.1
(7.3)
($12.8)
($27.0)
0.0
2.5
0.0
(1.3)
(25.0)
(2.0)
(14.6)
3.8
(17.9)
1.5
(25.0)
(2.0)
113.7
10.9
(229.6)
92.4
0.0
$24.4
Est.
2Q09
13
6/30/09
115.5
10.2
(251.8)
111.8
0.0
$26.5
Est.
1Q09
13
3/31/09
$39.7
($27.0)
$14.7
$13.7
($0.3)
9.6
$9.3
$0.0
(12.0)
(1.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
($13.0)
($27.0)
(25.0)
(2.0)
$39.7
(30.7)
0.0
(2.2)
11.9
0.8
112.6
10.9
(185.8)
98.7
0.0
$23.6
Est.
3Q09
13
9/30/09
$23.2
($27.1)
($1.8)
($2.8)
($2.9)
9.3
$6.4
$0.0
2.0
(1.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$1.0
($27.1)
(25.0)
(2.1)
$23.2
(22.2)
0.0
2.5
23.2
(13.9)
116.0
11.0
(239.6)
123.3
0.0
$23.0
Est.
4Q09
13
12/31/09
$69.1
($108.1)
($30.9)
($34.9)
($1.0)
7.4
$6.4
0.0
0.0
$0.0
0.0
42.0
(4.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$38.0
(100.0)
(8.1)
0.0
0.0
($108.1)
$69.1
457.8
43.0
(906.9)
426.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
(7.8)
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
(44.7)
$97.4
Est.
FY09
52
12/31/09
($0.6)
($27.0)
($25.6)
($26.7)
$1.3
6.4
$7.7
$0.0
30.0
(1.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$28.9
($27.0)
(25.0)
(2.0)
($0.6)
(20.5)
0.0
(2.0)
(13.1)
2.9
123.5
12.8
(268.8)
134.1
0.0
$30.4
Est.
1Q10
13
3/31/10
$37.6
($27.0)
$12.6
$11.5
($0.5)
7.7
$7.2
$0.0
(10.0)
(1.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
($11.1)
($27.0)
(25.0)
(2.0)
$37.6
11.7
0.0
4.3
(8.8)
4.5
122.1
13.3
(246.0)
108.9
0.0
$27.4
Est.
2Q10
13
6/30/10
$34.3
($27.0)
$9.3
$8.2
$1.3
7.2
$8.5
$0.0
(5.0)
(1.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
($6.1)
($27.0)
(25.0)
(2.0)
$34.3
(47.9)
0.0
(2.2)
6.9
0.6
121.5
13.1
(200.0)
115.7
0.0
$26.7
Est.
3Q10
13
9/30/10
$31.5
($27.1)
$6.5
$5.4
($1.7)
8.5
$6.8
$0.0
(5.0)
(1.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
($6.1)
($27.1)
(25.0)
(2.1)
$31.5
(39.1)
0.0
3.6
34.6
(15.2)
124.9
13.1
(257.6)
139.6
0.0
$27.6
Est.
4Q10
13
12/31/10
$102.8
($108.1)
$2.8
($1.5)
$0.4
6.4
$6.8
0.0
0.0
$0.0
0.0
10.0
(4.3)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$5.7
(100.0)
(8.1)
0.0
0.0
($108.1)
$102.8
492.1
52.3
(972.4)
498.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
19.6
(7.1)
0.0
0.0
3.7
0.0
(95.7)
$112.0
Est.
FY10
52
12/31/10
$100.6
($108.1)
$0.6
($3.9)
$0.0
6.8
$6.8
0.0
0.0
$0.0
0.0
12.0
(4.5)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$7.5
(100.0)
(8.1)
0.0
0.0
($108.1)
$100.6
527.0
60.1
(1,044.8)
562.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.3
(6.8)
0.0
10.0
1.9
0.0
(139.0)
$122.7
Est.
FY11
52
12/31/11
$119.8
($108.1)
$19.8
$15.1
$2.0
6.8
$8.8
0.0
0.0
$0.0
0.0
(5.0)
(4.7)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
($9.7)
(100.0)
(8.1)
0.0
0.0
($108.1)
$119.8
562.8
66.7
(1,101.4)
628.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.4
(7.1)
0.0
0.0
2.7
0.0
(178.3)
$133.0
Est.
FY12
52
12/31/12
$139.5
($108.1)
$39.5
$34.7
($0.4)
8.8
$8.5
0.0
0.0
$0.0
0.0
(27.0)
(4.7)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
($31.7)
(100.0)
(8.1)
0.0
0.0
($108.1)
$139.5
600.2
72.1
(1,159.4)
695.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.2
(7.4)
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.0
(221.5)
$148.1
Est.
FY13
52
12/31/13
Aaron Rents
46
Aaron Rents
Aaron Rents
Other Depreciation
651.9
46.7%
37.6
58.9
4.2%
43.3
64.4
69.1
37.6%
21.1
235
$0.24
297.2
21.3%
192.8
46.7%
186.0
48.1%
11.2
0.092
221
20.3
5.2%
16.0
(4.3)
36.8%
(2.7)
$0.05
11.2
0.092
0.088
215
18.9
4.6%
12.7
(6.3)
40.0%
(3.8)
$0.07
$0.06
3.2
36.8%
5.1
221
0.273
41.7%
0.114
25.1
36.3%
16.0
21.2
0.096
0.018
14.6%
0.020
0.078
84.2
21.8%
0.058
0.0%
0.058
2.4%
7.1
0.088
$0.09
4.9
40.0%
8.1
215
0.279
33.4%
0.093
20.0
36.6%
12.7
20.8
0.097
0.020
12.7%
0.022
0.083
89.6
21.7%
2.5%
7.5
13.4
3.5%
3.7%
14.3
13.3
3.4%
3.0%
11.6
13.3
3.2%
3.0%
12.4
14.3
3.5%
3.7%
15.3
7.1
1.8%
7.1
1.7%
27.5
1,079.0
29.7
27.5
1,075.0
29.6
0.063
-2.0%
0.061
28.2
2.7%
29.0
2.8%
49.6
3.6%
48.1
3.4%
41.8
3.0%
29.4
2.1%
20.1
49.5
3.5%
106.6
7.6%
110.0
7.7
0.0%
8.3
$294.8
$9.7
$387.0
$175.8
$0.39
2Q08
13
6/30/08
0.0%
$299.7
$12.4
$412.7
$177.8
$0.42
1Q08
13
3/31/08
32.1
2.3%
$1,045.8
$34.6
$1,394.9
$617.1
$1.28
FY07
52
12/31/07
182.4
47.0%
10.3
0.094
194
18.1
4.7%
17.2
(1.0)
38.9%
(0.6)
$0.01
0.094
$0.06
3.0
38.9%
4.9
194
0.270
51.8%
0.140
27.1
36.7%
17.2
22.0
0.114
0.017
13.1%
0.019
0.076
82.2
21.2%
0.057
0.0%
0.057
2.9%
8.4
13.4
3.5%
3.7%
14.4
13.3
3.4%
3.0%
11.6
7.1
1.8%
1,078.5
29.7
27.5
0.0%
7.7
$291.1
$10.2
$388.0
$175.3
$0.36
3Q08
13
9/29/08
182.7
45.1%
8.8
0.100
190
19.1
4.7%
12.9
(6.2)
38.4%
(3.8)
$0.07
0.100
$0.05
2.7
38.4%
4.4
190
0.276
38.7%
0.107
20.3
36.3%
12.9
17.3
0.091
0.017
10.4%
0.019
0.077
82.2
20.3%
0.058
0.0%
0.058
2.7%
7.9
14.0
3.5%
3.7%
15.0
13.3
3.3%
3.0%
12.1
7.1
1.8%
1,063.0
29.2
27.5
0.0%
8.4
$293.2
$10.8
$404.9
$176.6
$0.39
4Q08
13
12/29/08
744.0
46.7%
41.5
76.5
4.8%
58.8
81.3
92.5
38.6%
22.5
190
$0.26
338.2
21.2%
30.9
2.6%
34.5
2.9%
58.9
3.7%
55.1
3.5%
47.8
3.0%
28.5
1.8%
24.7
53.2
3.3%
118.1
7.4%
110.0
32.1
2.0%
$1,178.7
$43.2
$1,592.6
$705.6
$1.55
FY08
52
12/29/08
186.9
41.5%
10.2
0.099
(0.015)
0.084
133
11.2
2.5%
8.4
(2.8)
38.5%
(1.7)
$0.03
$0.03
1.7
38.5%
2.8
133
0.299
33.2%
0.099
13.2
36.5%
8.4
11.2
0.084
0.022
5.6%
0.023
0.082
86.8
19.3%
0.061
-4.0%
0.059
2.9%
9.2
3.6%
16.2
3.0%
13.5
1,057.0
29.4
27.8
0.0%
10.3
$316.5
$12.9
$450.1
$186.9
$0.49
Est.
1Q09
13
3/30/09
184.9
43.7%
10.9
0.096
(0.008)
0.088
117
10.3
2.4%
7.0
(3.3)
38.5%
(2.0)
$0.04
$0.04
2.0
38.5%
3.3
117
0.293
32.4%
0.095
11.1
36.5%
7.0
10.3
0.088
0.020
5.7%
0.024
0.082
87.6
20.7%
0.058
1.0%
0.058
3.0%
9.3
3.7%
15.7
3.0%
12.7
1,065.0
29.6
27.8
2.0%
8.8
$311.6
$10.1
$423.6
$184.9
$0.45
Est.
2Q09
13
6/29/09
185.3
43.3%
10.9
0.094
(0.008)
0.086
115
9.9
2.3%
6.7
(3.3)
38.5%
(2.0)
$0.04
$0.04
2.0
38.5%
3.3
115
0.286
31.9%
0.091
10.5
36.5%
6.7
9.9
0.086
0.019
6.0%
0.025
0.082
88.8
20.8%
0.057
1.0%
0.057
3.0%
9.3
3.7%
15.8
3.0%
12.8
1,078.0
29.9
27.8
2.0%
7.8
$308.4
$10.7
$427.8
$185.3
$0.43
Est.
3Q09
13
9/28/09
191.8
41.9%
11.0
0.087
134
11.7
2.6%
10.5
(1.3)
38.5%
(0.8)
$0.01
0.087
$0.01
0.8
38.5%
1.3
134
0.290
42.4%
0.123
16.5
36.5%
10.5
11.7
0.087
0.019
8.4%
0.024
0.082
89.8
19.6%
0.058
0.0%
0.058
3.0%
9.5
3.7%
16.9
3.0%
13.7
1,096.0
30.4
27.8
2.0%
8.6
$317.7
$11.7
$457.9
$191.8
$0.42
Est.
4Q09
13
12/28/09
748.9
42.6%
43.0
$0.12
43.2
2.5%
$0.12
353.1
20.1%
37.3
3.0%
64.6
3.7%
52.8
3.0%
119.3
6.8%
111.1
1.0%
35.6
2.0%
$1,254.2
$45.4
$1,759.4
$748.9
$1.80
Est.
FY09
52
12/28/09
200.0
40.0%
12.8
0.087
92
8.0
1.6%
6.2
(1.8)
38.5%
(1.1)
$0.02
0.087
$0.02
1.1
38.5%
1.8
92
0.304
34.7%
0.105
9.7
36.5%
6.2
8.0
0.087
0.023
6.9%
0.025
0.084
93.9
18.8%
0.059
1.0%
0.059
3.0%
10.2
3.7%
18.5
3.0%
15.0
1,112.5
31.2
28.1
2.0%
10.6
$338.4
$14.2
$499.4
$200.0
$0.56
Est.
1Q10
13
3/29/10
199.3
42.7%
13.3
0.087
99
8.6
1.8%
6.9
(1.7)
38.5%
(1.0)
$0.02
0.087
$0.02
1.0
38.5%
1.7
99
0.297
37.2%
0.110
10.9
36.5%
6.9
8.6
0.087
0.024
7.4%
0.026
0.085
95.4
20.4%
0.058
1.0%
0.059
3.0%
10.0
3.7%
17.3
3.0%
14.0
1,127.5
31.6
28.1
2.0%
9.0
$334.6
$11.2
$467.3
$199.3
$0.51
Est.
2Q10
13
6/28/10
201.2
42.4%
13.1
0.087
106
9.2
1.9%
7.9
(1.3)
38.5%
(0.8)
$0.01
0.087
$0.01
0.8
38.5%
1.3
106
0.291
40.3%
0.117
12.5
36.5%
7.9
9.2
0.087
0.025
7.9%
0.027
0.085
97.1
20.5%
0.057
1.0%
0.058
3.0%
10.0
3.7%
17.5
3.0%
14.2
1,142.5
32.1
28.1
2.0%
8.0
$332.9
$11.9
$474.0
$201.2
$0.49
Est.
3Q10
13
9/27/10
205.1
40.5%
13.1
0.087
103
9.0
1.8%
7.7
(1.2)
38.5%
(0.8)
$0.01
0.087
$0.01
0.8
38.5%
1.2
103
0.296
39.9%
0.118
12.2
36.5%
7.7
9.0
0.087
0.024
7.7%
0.026
0.084
97.7
19.3%
0.058
1.0%
0.059
3.0%
10.3
3.7%
18.7
3.0%
15.2
1,157.5
32.5
28.1
2.0%
8.7
$342.2
$13.0
$506.4
$205.1
$0.51
Est.
4Q10
13
12/27/10
805.6
41.4%
52.3
34.8
1.8%
$0.07
384.0
19.7%
40.4
3.0%
72.0
3.7%
58.4
3.0%
127.4
6.5%
112.2
1.0%
36.3
1.9%
$1,348.1
$50.4
$1,947.1
$805.6
$2.07
Est.
FY10
52
12/27/10
871.1
41.0%
60.1
37.4
1.8%
$0.07
415.1
19.5%
43.3
3.0%
78.7
3.7%
63.8
3.0%
136.1
6.4%
113.3
1.0%
36.6
1.7%
$1,443.7
$55.7
$2,125.7
$871.1
$2.26
Est.
FY11
52
12/26/11
72.1
40.0
1.6%
$0.06
485.6
19.4%
49.3
3.0%
92.6
3.7%
75.1
3.0%
155.5
6.2%
115.6
1.0%
37.4
1.5%
$1,644.2
$67.5
$2,503.2
$1,007.6
$2.73
Est.
FY12
52
12/23/13
940.0 1,007.6
40.7%
40.3%
66.7
40.0
1.7%
$0.06
449.6
19.5%
46.3
3.0%
85.5
3.7%
69.3
3.0%
145.7
6.3%
114.5
1.0%
37.0
1.6%
$1,541.9
$61.4
$2,310.3
$940.0
$2.45
Est.
FY12
52
12/24/12
47
Aaron Rents
Employed Capital
Fiscal Year Ended December
Cash
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
Non-Interest Bearing Current Liabilities:
Additional Paid-In Capital
Dividends Payable
Deferred Income Taxes Payable
Customer Deposits and Advance Payments
Total Non-Interest Bearing Current Liabs (NIBCLs)
Net Working Capital
Property Plant & Equipment, net
Goodwill and Intangibles
Other Assets
Balance Sheet Capital
Adjustments to Balance Sheet Captial
Capitalized Value of Op Leases
Less: Excess Cash
Economic Capital
Average Capital
Change in Capital
Aaron Rents
Economic Value Added (EVA) Analysis
$Millions
Fiscal Year Ended December
NOPAT
Ending Capital
R (Beginning Capital)
C*
R-C*
2000
$502.9
44.2
61.0
227.6
120.7
453.4
49.5
0.0
0.0
19.6
$69.2
2001
$546.7
44.0
62.0
276.7
137.9
520.6
26.1
0.0
0.0
23.4
$49.5
2002
$640.7
53.9
82.4
293.3
162.7
592.3
48.4
0.0
0.0
24.9
$73.4
2003
$766.8
50.9
111.7
344.9
195.7
703.2
63.6
0.0
0.0
28.2
$91.8
$69.2
$26.6
$42.5
$49.5
$19.0
$30.4
$73.4
$28.2
$45.1
$91.8
$35.4
$56.5
2000
$0.1
23.6
267.7
0.0
$291.4
2001
$0.1
25.4
258.9
0.0
$284.4
2002
$0.1
27.0
317.3
0.0
$344.4
34.7
0.4
21.0
11.0
32.4
259.1
63.2
0.0
25.8
380.4
65.3
0.4
21.0
12.8
34.2
250.3
77.3
22.1
13.4
397.2
245.3
0.0
625.7
Est
2009
$1,759.4
28.2
357.8
748.9
457.8
1,592.7
166.8
0.0
0.0
57.0
$223.8
Est
2010
$1,947.1
31.2
426.7
805.6
492.1
1,755.6
191.5
0.0
0.0
64.4
$256.0
Est
2011
$2,125.7
34.4
484.5
871.1
527.0
1,917.1
208.7
0.0
0.0
73.3
$282.0
Est
2012
$2,310.3
37.9
544.0
940.0
562.8
2,084.7
225.7
0.0
0.0
83.5
$309.1
$193.7
$74.0
$119.7
$223.8
$85.5
$138.3
$256.0
$97.8
$158.2
$282.0
$107.7
$174.3
$309.1
$118.1
$191.0
2007
$5.2
47.7
571.8
0.0
$624.8
2008
$7.4
59.5
681.1
0.0
$748.0
2009
$6.4
67.3
748.6
0.0
$822.3
2010
$6.8
74.4
826.3
0.0
$907.6
2011
$6.8
81.3
920.8
0.0
$1,008.9
2012
$8.8
88.3
1,009.6
0.0
$1,106.8
121.0
0.8
93.7
27.1
121.6
542.9
170.3
115.4
29.4
979.6
141.0
0.9
82.3
27.8
110.9
513.9
245.9
146.7
36.9
1,054.3
173.9
0.9
148.6
33.4
183.0
565.0
224.4
193.5
67.4
1,233.3
176.5
0.9
148.6
34.9
184.5
637.8
281.5
201.5
67.4
1,372.7
196.1
0.9
148.6
38.7
188.2
719.4
329.1
209.6
67.4
1,513.7
203.4
0.9
148.6
40.5
190.1
818.8
369.0
217.7
57.4
1,653.1
216.7
0.9
148.6
43.2
192.8
914.0
402.3
225.8
57.4
1,792.3
479.2
0.0
1,337.7
576.0
0.0
1,555.6
566.4
0.0
1,620.7
654.4
0.0
1,887.7
712.7
0.0
2,085.4
805.6
0.0
2,319.3
915.9
0.0
2,569.0
1,043.2
0.0
2,835.5
1,005.4
194.6
1,220.2
235.0
1,446.7
217.9
1,588.1
65.1
1,754.2
267.0
1,986.5
197.8
2,202.4
233.9
2,444.2
249.7
2,702.3
266.5
2004
$73.0
1,102.7
2005
$87.3
1,337.7
2006
$111.6
1,555.6
2007
$102.4
1,620.7
2008
$119.7
1,887.7
2009
$138.3
2,085.4
2010
$158.2
2,319.3
2011
$174.3
2,569.0
2012
$191.0
2,835.5
2005
$1,125.5
39.1
172.8
507.2
305.6
1,024.6
100.9
0.0
2.8
38.3
$142.0
2006
$1,326.6
41.3
207.2
579.6
364.1
1,192.2
134.4
0.0
0.0
46.1
$180.5
$118.7
$45.7
$73.0
$142.0
$54.7
$87.3
2003
$0.1
30.9
343.0
0.0
$374.0
2004
$5.9
32.7
425.6
0.0
$464.2
64.1
0.4
50.5
14.8
65.7
278.6
87.1
26.0
26.2
483.6
83.9
0.7
55.3
15.7
71.7
302.3
99.6
55.5
26.2
555.3
292.0
0.0
689.2
311.8
0.0
795.4
625.7
657.4
63.6
2000
$42.5
625.7
2001
$30.4
689.2
8.1%
2007
$1,394.9
21.2
239.8
617.1
391.5
1,269.6
125.3
0.0
(4.9)
45.3
$165.8
2008
$1,592.6
26.4
283.4
705.6
429.9
1,445.2
147.4
0.0
(6.0)
52.4
$193.7
$180.5
$69.0
$111.6
$165.8
$63.3
$102.4
2005
$7.0
42.8
550.9
0.0
$600.7
2006
$8.8
43.5
612.1
0.0
$664.5
93.6
0.6
95.2
19.1
114.9
349.3
111.1
74.9
50.1
700.3
112.8
0.7
75.2
23.5
99.4
501.4
133.8
101.1
23.0
858.5
352.8
0.0
908.1
402.4
0.0
1,102.7
742.3
106.2
851.8
112.7
2002
$45.1
795.4
2003
$56.5
908.1
6.5%
8.1%
7.1%
8.1%
8.0%
8.1%
7.9%
8.1%
8.3%
8.1%
6.6%
8.1%
7.4%
8.1%
7.3%
8.1%
7.6%
8.1%
7.5%
8.1%
7.4%
8.1%
-3.2%
-1.6%
-1.0%
-0.1%
-0.2%
0.2%
-1.5%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.7%
EVA
Cumulative EVA
($20.3)
($20.3)
($10.8)
($31.1)
($8.0)
($39.1)
($0.6)
($39.7)
($2.1)
($41.7)
$3.1
($38.6)
($23.7)
($62.3)
($11.7)
($74.0)
($14.8)
($88.7)
($10.9)
($99.6)
($13.8)
($113.4)
($17.2)
($130.6)
Incremental NOPAT
Incremental Capital
Incr. NOPAT / Incr. Capital
($12.1)
63.6
-19.0%
$14.7
106.2
13.8%
$11.4
112.7
10.1%
$16.5
194.6
8.5%
$14.3
235.0
6.1%
$24.2
217.9
11.1%
($9.1)
65.1
-14.0%
$17.3
267.0
6.5%
$18.6
197.8
9.4%
$19.9
233.9
8.5%
$16.0
249.7
6.4%
$16.8
266.5
6.3%
2001
$30.4
63.6
($33.2)
2002
$45.1
106.2
($61.0)
2003
$56.5
112.7
($56.2)
2004
$73.0
194.6
($121.6)
2005
$87.3
235.0
($147.7)
2006
$111.6
217.9
($106.3)
2008
$119.7
267.0
($147.3)
2009
$138.3
197.8
($59.5)
2010
$158.2
233.9
($75.7)
2011
$174.3
249.7
($75.4)
2012
$191.0
266.5
($75.5)
1.0%
5.5
0.1
0.0
1.0%
6.4
0.1
0.0
1.0%
7.7
0.1
0.0
1.0%
9.5
5.9
0.0
1.0%
11.3
7.0
0.0
1.0%
13.3
8.8
0.0
1.0%
15.9
7.4
0.0
1.0%
17.6
6.4
0.0
1.0%
19.5
6.8
0.0
1.0%
21.3
6.8
0.0
1.0%
23.1
8.8
0.0
Aaron Rents
Free Cash Flow (FCF) Analysis
$Millions
Fiscal Year Ended December
NOPAT
Change in Capital
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
-8.1%
4.9%
8.1%
2004
$946.5
39.4
149.2
414.5
253.5
856.6
89.9
0.0
(3.4)
32.2
$118.7
2000
$42.5
$42.5
1.0%
5.0
0.1
0.0
2007
$102.4
65.1
$37.4
1.0%
13.9
5.2
0.0
Aaron Rents
48
NOPAT
$138
158
174
191
212
Investment
$198
$234
$250
$267
$269
P. V. Factor
FCF
($59)
0.962
($76)
0.890
($75)
0.823
($75)
0.761
($57)
0.704
233
$233
Intrinsic Operating Value
Excess Cash
Total Intrinsic Value
Total Debt & Operating Leases
Intrinsic Operating Value
10.657
($57)
(67)
(62)
(57)
(40)
2,478
$2,194
0
$2,194
769
$1,425
Shares Outstanding
NOPAT
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
& Beyond
EVA
P.V. Factor
($15)
0.962
($11)
0.890
($14)
0.823
($17)
0.761
($18)
0.704
3,104
$233
(252)
10.657
8.685
Premium (Discount)
Capital
Intrinsic Operating Value
Excess Cash
Intrinsic Total Value
Total Debt & PV Operating Leases
Intrinsic Common Equity Value
2,478
(2,186)
$231
1,963
$2,194
0
$2,194
769
$1,425
$234
$250
$267
$269
($76)
($75)
($75)
($57)
233
$233
Intrinsic Operating Value
Excess Cash
Total Intrinsic Value
Total Debt & Operating Leases
Intrinsic Operating Value
P. V. Factor
Present
Value of
FCF
0.962
0.890
0.823
0.761
11.521
($73)
(67)
(62)
(43)
2,679
$2,433
0
$2,433
809
$1,624
54.2
$29.96
January-10
Begin
Capital
EVA
P.V. Factor
Present
Value of
EVA
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
7.5%
$2,085
2,319
2,569
2,836
($11)
($14)
($17)
($18)
0.962
0.890
0.823
0.761
($10)
(12)
(14)
(13)
7.5%
3,104
$233
(252)
11.521
9.389
2,679
(2,363)
$265
2,168
$2,433
0
$2,433
809
$1,624
Premium (Discount)
Capital
Intrinsic Operating Value
Excess Cash
Intrinsic Total Value
Total Debt & PV Operating Leases
Intrinsic Common Equity Value
54.2
FCF
As of
Present
Value of
EVA
($14)
(10)
(11)
(13)
(12)
158
174
191
212
Investment
Shares Outstanding
$26.27
January-10
54.2
As of:
Fiscal Year
Ended Dec
$26.27
54.2
$29.96
Capitalization
B/S Debt
Lease Value
Equity Value
Capital
B/S
$115
0
762
$876
B/S Adj
$115
654
762
$1,531
Market
$115
654
1,358
$2,127
Target
$115
654
1,425
$2,194
Debt % Cap
Equity % Cap
Cap'n
13.1%
86.9%
100.0%
50.3%
49.7%
100.0%
36.2%
63.8%
100.0%
35.1%
64.9%
100.0%
EPS
$1.55
$1.80
$2.07
$2.26
Now
$26.27
16.9
14.6
12.7
11.6
12 mos.
$29.96
19.3
16.7
14.5
13.2
6.0%
1.0
6.0%
4.8%
10.8%
5.2%
38.2%
3.2%
35.1%
Equity Portion
Debt Portion
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
7.0%
1.1%
8.1%
FY
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
5-year median
10-year median
17.1
15.3
Aaron Rents
49
NOPAT % Sales
8.1%
9.5%
10.5%
9.7%
Capital/Sales Avg.
120.6%
Variation
From Base
NOPAT
Capital
Margin
Growth
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1%
-2%
31.15
32.42
33.72
35.03
36.37
39.12
41.96
0%
-2%
24.81
25.95
27.10
28.28
29.48
31.93
34.48
-2%
-2%
12.13
12.13
13.88
14.78
15.69
17.57
19.51
1%
0%
27.97
29.26
30.57
31.90
33.26
36.05
38.94
0%
0%
21.54
22.69
23.86
25.06
26.27
28.77
31.35
-2%
0%
8.68
9.56
10.45
11.36
12.29
14.20
16.17
1%
2%
24.50
25.81
27.14
28.50
29.88
32.71
35.64
0%
2%
17.98
19.15
20.34
21.55
22.79
25.32
27.94
-2%
2%
4.94
5.83
6.74
7.67
8.61
10.54
12.55
$4.94
$26.27
$41.96
Aaron Rents
Combined Sensitivity Analysis Matrix
Best
Base
Worst
OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS
Sales Growth
NOPAT Margin
11.5%
9.1%
9.5%
8.1%
7.5%
6.1%
Capital Growth
8.5%
10.5%
12.5%
Worst
9.00%
0.50%
$28.14
$14.91
($2.92)
FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS
Base
Best
8.11%
7.00% WACC
1.50%
2.50% Perpetual Growth
$71.55
$41.96
$26.27
$50.73
$4.94
$22.03
Aaron Rents
Financial Assumptions Sensitivity Analysis
Base Assumptions:
WACC
Perpetual Growth Rate
WACC Variation
From Base
-1.11%
(Terminal Value % Total Intrinsic)
0.00%
(Terminal Value % Total Intrinsic)
-0.11%
(Terminal Value % Total Intrinsic)
0.89%
(Terminal Value % Total Intrinsic)
8.11%
1.50%
-0.5%
0.0%
1.0%
$29.10
$33.16
$37.95
50.73
115%
111%
110%
108%
$20.27
$23.06
$26.27
$34.42
115%
114%
113%
111%
$21.00
$23.89
$27.22
$35.71
115%
114%
113%
111%
14.91
$17.05
$19.47
$25.44
118%
116%
115%
113%
$14.91
$26.27
$50.73
Aaron Rents
50
Aaron Rents
51
Aaron Rents
52
Aaron Rents
53
Aaron Rents
54
Aaron Rents
55
56
$7.0
9%
Billions
5% CAGR 1995-2007
$6.0
8%
$5.0
6%
$4.0
5%
$3.0
3%
$2.0
2%
$1.0
$0.0
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Annual Total Revenue (bil.)
Y/Y Change
Aaron Rents
57
Millions
3.5
1% CAGR 1995-2007
23%
3.0
3.0
18%
2.5
14%
2.0
9%
1.5
5%
1.0
0%
0.5
-5%
0.0
-9%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Annual Customer Count (mil.)
Y/Y Change
(000s)
8,400
10%
9%
1% CAGR 1995-2007
8,200
7%
8,000
6%
7,800
4%
7,600
3%
7,400
1%
7,200
-1%
7,000
-2%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Stores (000s)
Y/Y Change
The two publicly traded RTO companies, Rent-a-Center and Aaron Rents,
generate just over 50% of industry revenues. Based on 2007 data, Rent-aCenter had a 38% market share, and Aarons had a 15% share.
Despite the presence of Rent-A-Center and Aaron Rents, a significant portion
of RTO stores are owned by proprietors who operate between one to three
locations (mom and pop stores).
Industry profit margins vary by the size of the rent-to-own company. For
example, operators with 1-5 stores had an average operating profit margin of
12.4% in 2007. Those with 6-10 stores enjoyed an average margin of 14.6%,
11-20 store companies had average margins of 8.5% and those operators
with 21+ stores had average operating margins of 7.0%.
Margin variances are largely attributed to the high operating expenses
incurred from returned merchandise. These items must be either refurbished
and re-rented or discarded. Larger companies also tend to use more
marketing, which also drives up cost.
Aaron Rents
58
14.6%
12.4%
12%
10%
8.5%
8%
7.0%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1-5 Stores
6-10 Stores
11-20 Stores
21+ Stores
Mean
Computers
Overall Industry:
Electronics
Furniture
Independent Companies:
Jewelery
Other
Public Companies:
Referring back to one of the key features discussed earlier, the RTO
transaction is a rental, not a conditional sale or credit transaction.
Accordingly, there are no customer credit checks, nor does the purchase
show as an obligation on the customers personal balance sheet.
The resulting lack of credit scrutiny relieves a large burden from many
customers but also tends to attract lower-credit-quality buyers. Instead of a
formal credit check, most operators use proprietary background check
systems. Necessary information includes items such as current address,
employment information, and three references who may be contacted in the
event of delinquent payments. Much of the RTO model relies on the
discretion of its store managers, who must decide to whom and how much to
lease.
Aaron Rents
59
APRO has extensively studied the profile of a typical RTO customer. The
prototypical consumer in a lease ownership transaction is a Caucasian female
between the ages of 35 and 44. She completed high school and earns
between $36,000 and $50,000 per year. She may rent or own her home with
a slight bent towards ownership. The charts below depict the segmentation of
the customer market by age, sex, ethnicity, educational level, income, and
home ownership status.
65+
6.8%
55-64
21.7%
45-54
34.2%
35-44
23.2%
25-34
12.8%
Under 25
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Male
36.3%
Female
63.7%
Aaron Rents
60
Asian
6.6%
Hispanic
22.5%
African American
69.2%
Caucasian
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Graduate school
8.3%
College graduate
24.8%
Some college
60.3%
5.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
3.7%
19.5%
$50,000-$74,999
$36,000-$49,999
28.7%
27.8%
$24,000-$35,999
$15,000-$23,999
16.7%
3.6%
$6,000-$14,999
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Aaron Rents
61
Rent
48.0%
Own
52.0%
RTO payment terms vary by company. Operators typically offer weekly, biweekly, monthly, and semi-monthly contracts. Most commonly, customers
pay on a weekly or bi-weekly basis, usually in correspondence with pay
periods. Traditionally, these customers tend to be lower income and more
value-oriented. There also tends to be a higher delinquency rate compared
with monthly or semi-monthly payment agreements (2007: 3.1% at Rent-ACenter weekly, versus 2.7% at Aarons monthly).
Among the two public peers, 86% of Rent-A-Center customers pay weekly
while 82% of Aaron Rents 2007 contracts were monthly rental agreements.
Below we graphically depict the distribution of payment agreements across
the industry and at the major publicly-traded players.
86%
80%
70%
82%
75%
70%
60%
50%
40%
28%
30%
20%
25%
17%
14%
10%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Weekly
Overall Industry:
Monthly
Independent Companies
Semi-Monthly
Rent-a-Center
Aaron's
Regulatory and
Political Risk
Political and regulatory risks are threats that are never far out of the thoughts
of RTO operators. The reasons are relatively straightforward. RTO operators
are viewed by some interest groups and politicians are entities that prey on
those consumers who are the financially weakest and financially least
sophisticated members of society.
Aaron Rents
62
Aaron Rents
63
Analyst Holdings and Compensation: Equity analysts and their staffs at Raymond James are compensated based on a salary
and bonus system. Several factors enter into the bonus determination including quality and performance of research product,
the analyst's success in rating stocks versus an industry index, and support effectiveness to trading and the retail and
institutional sales forces. Other factors may include but are not limited to: overall ratings from internal (other than investment
banking) or external parties and the general productivity and revenue generated in covered stocks. The covering analyst
and/or research associate owns shares of the common stock of Pier 1 Imports Incorporated.
Raymond James Relationships: RJA expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from the subject companies in the next three months.
Company Name
Disclosure
Hewlett-Packard
Pier 1 Imports Incorporated
Aaron Rents
64
1/13/09
$29.00
Rating
NR
Target
Price
Update
Date
Closing
Price
Target Prices: The information below indicates our target price and rating changes for RNT stock over the past three years.
$28.00
$27.00
Security Price
$26.00
$25.00
$24.00
$23.00
$22.00
$21.00
$20.00
2/9/09
1/9/09
12/10/08
11/11/08
9/16/08
10/14/08
8/18/08
7/21/08
6/20/08
5/22/08
4/24/08
3/27/08
2/27/08
1/29/08
12/28/07
11/29/07
10/31/07
9/5/07
10/3/07
8/7/07
7/10/07
6/11/07
5/11/07
4/13/07
3/15/07
2/14/07
1/17/07
12/15/06
11/16/06
9/21/06
10/19/06
8/23/06
7/26/06
6/27/06
5/1/06
5/30/06
3/3/06
3/31/06
$19.00
Date: 02/27/09
Price
Coverage Suspended
Rating Change
Target Price and Rating Change
Valuation Methodology: The Raymond James methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes a number of
qualitative and quantitative factors including an assessment of industry size, structure, business trends and overall
attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition, and expected total return, among other
factors. These factors are subject to change depending on overall economic conditions or industry- or company-specific
occurrences. For Aaron Rents, our methodology begins with an analysis of the financial statements, which culminates with
projections of the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statements. Using these projections, we calculate current and
projected intrinsic value. We also monitor and use standard valuation metrics, including historical and comparable forward P/Es,
MEV/EBITDA and Price/Sales ratios. These calculations and comparisons then form the basis for our judgments.
MP3 NM
MP3 NM
12/4/07
11/17/06
9/28/06
8/18/06
3/28/06
3/3/06
3.09
13.40
11.93
13.18
17.30
18.73
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
25.00
3
4
3
4
3
1
MU4 NM
$20.00
$18.00
$16.00
$14.00
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
$6.00
$4.00
$2.00
2/27/09
1/29/09
12/2/08
12/31/08
11/5/08
10/9/08
9/11/08
8/14/08
7/17/08
6/18/08
5/21/08
4/23/08
3/27/08
2/28/08
1/30/08
1/3/08
12/4/07
11/6/07
10/9/07
9/11/07
8/14/07
7/17/07
6/18/07
5/21/07
4/25/07
3/28/07
2/28/07
1/2/07
1/31/07
12/1/06
11/3/06
10/9/06
9/12/06
8/15/06
7/19/06
6/20/06
5/22/06
4/26/06
3/3/06
$0.00
3/29/06
Security Price
Rating
MU4 NM
Target
Price
MP3 NM
Closing
Price
Update
Date
The information below indicates target price and rating changes for other subject companies included in this research.
Date: 02/27/09
Price
Coverage Suspended
Rating Change
Target Price and Rating Change
Aaron Rents
65
MO2 $32.00
MO2 $34.00
MO2 $28.00
MO2 $21.00
MO2 $29.00
MO2 $14.00
MO2 $15.00
MO2 $12.00
2/27/09
2/9/09
11/18/08
10/10/08
2/29/08
8/31/07
6/1/07
2/1/07
11/22/06
11/16/06
8/18/06
7/21/06
5/9/06
3/3/06
8.21
9.46
10.52
13.43
20.87
28.46
26.91
24.22
24.82
25.75
22.80
19.02
25.00
29.56
12.00
14.00
15.00
21.00
28.00
34.00
32.00
28.00
29.00
UR
24.00
22.00
30.00
37.00
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
MO2 $28.00
$33.00
$31.00
$29.00
$27.00
$25.00
Security Price
Rating
MO2 UR
MO2 $24.00
Target
Price
Closing
Price
Update
Date
$23.00
$21.00
$19.00
$17.00
$15.00
$13.00
$11.00
$9.00
2/25/09
1/28/09
12/29/08
11/3/08
11/28/08
9/9/08
10/7/08
8/13/08
7/16/08
6/17/08
5/21/08
4/23/08
3/28/08
2/29/08
1/2/08
1/31/08
12/4/07
11/7/07
9/14/07
10/12/07
8/20/07
7/23/07
6/26/07
5/1/07
5/30/07
4/2/07
3/5/07
2/5/07
1/8/07
12/7/06
11/10/06
9/15/06
10/13/06
8/18/06
7/21/06
6/23/06
5/1/06
5/25/06
3/3/06
3/31/06
$7.00
Date: 02/27/09
MO2 UR
MO2 $37.00
MO2 $35.00
$58.00
MO2 $36.00
$56.00
MO2 $60.00
SB1 $60.00
SB1 $55.00
SB1 $50.00
MO2 $56.00
$52.00
$50.00
$48.00
$46.00
$44.00
$42.00
$40.00
$38.00
$36.00
$34.00
$32.00
2/18/09
1/21/09
12/22/08
11/25/08
10/2/08
10/29/08
9/5/08
8/11/08
7/14/08
6/16/08
5/19/08
4/22/08
3/25/08
2/25/08
1/29/08
12/28/07
12/3/07
11/6/07
10/9/07
9/11/07
8/15/07
7/19/07
6/20/07
5/23/07
4/26/07
3/28/07
2/28/07
2/1/07
1/3/07
12/5/06
11/8/06
10/11/06
9/13/06
8/16/06
7/20/06
6/21/06
5/23/06
4/26/06
3/3/06
$30.00
$28.00
$26.00
3/29/06
2/9/09
11/18/08
7/11/08
11/20/07
6/18/07
5/17/07
2/21/07
11/17/06
10/23/06
8/17/06
5/17/06
3/28/06
3/21/06
3/3/06
36.85
29.34
41.45
49.44
45.76
45.21
43.13
40.13
39.38
34.43
31.11
32.83
33.96
34.19
50.00
55.00
60.00
60.00
56.00
50.00
46.50
45.00
UR
37.00
36.00
35.00
UR
35.00
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
MO2 $45.00
$54.00
Security Price
Rating
Target
Price
Closing
Price
Rating Change
Target Price and Rating Change
Update
Date
Price
Coverage Suspended
Date: 02/27/09
MP3 NM
MO2 $17.00
MO2 $13.50
MO2 $12.50
MO2 $13.00
MP3 NM
MP3 NM
8/5/08
5/1/08
12/6/07
7/9/07
12/5/06
11/3/06
9/14/06
9/6/06
3/3/06
11.00
9.13
8.33
11.89
14.71
15.23
17.10
13.95
14.23
NM
13.00
12.50
13.50
NM
NM
NM
17.00
NM
3
2
2
2
3
4
3
2
3
MU4 NM
$18.00
$17.00
$16.00
$15.00
$14.00
$13.00
$12.00
$11.00
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
2/6/09
1/8/09
12/10/08
11/11/08
9/22/08
10/17/08
8/22/08
7/29/08
7/1/08
6/4/08
5/7/08
4/11/08
3/14/08
2/19/08
1/18/08
12/20/07
11/23/07
10/26/07
10/1/07
9/4/07
8/6/07
7/10/07
6/12/07
5/15/07
4/18/07
3/21/07
2/22/07
1/26/07
12/28/06
11/2/06
11/30/06
10/5/06
9/11/06
8/14/06
7/18/06
6/20/06
5/23/06
4/27/06
3/3/06
$7.00
3/30/06
Security Price
Rating
Target
Price
Closing
Price
Rating Change
Target Price and Rating Change
Update
Date
Price
Coverage Suspended
Date: 02/27/09
Price
Coverage Suspended
Rating Change
Target Price and Rating Change
Aaron Rents
66
MO2 $12.00
SB1 $6.00
SB1 $12.00
SB1 $5.50
$14.00
1/13/09
12/19/08
11/19/08
9/3/08
6/20/08
8/6/07
6/22/07
5/5/06
3/3/06
.51
.33
.71
4.13
5.01
5.84
8.30
9.00
10.27
3.50
5.50
6.00
9.00
11.00
12.00
12.00
NM
19.00
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
SB1 $3.50
$13.00
$12.00
$11.00
$10.00
$9.00
Security Price
Rating
MP3 NM
Target
Price
MO2 $19.00
Closing
Price
Update
Date
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
2/19/09
1/21/09
12/22/08
11/25/08
10/6/08
10/31/08
9/10/08
8/13/08
7/16/08
6/19/08
5/27/08
4/4/08
4/29/08
3/7/08
2/7/08
1/10/08
12/14/07
11/15/07
9/24/07
10/19/07
8/1/07
8/28/07
7/3/07
6/8/07
5/10/07
4/13/07
3/16/07
2/16/07
1/24/07
12/26/06
11/1/06
11/29/06
10/5/06
9/11/06
8/14/06
7/18/06
6/20/06
5/24/06
4/27/06
3/3/06
3/31/06
$0.00
Date: 02/27/09
Price
Coverage Suspended
Rating Change
Target Price and Rating Change
General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected 12-month target prices included on
our research for stocks rated Strong Buy or Outperform: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product
/ service pricing could change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or
market shares or new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen
developments with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective
valuation; or (4) External factors that affect the U.S. economy, interest rates, the U.S. dollar or major segments of the economy
could alter investor confidence and investment prospects.
Specific Investment Risks Related to the Industry or Issuer
Consumer Environment
Factors affecting the consumer environment (e.g., unemployment, changes to tax laws, consumer confidence, etc.) and/or
consumers' perceived buying power can impact sales and profitability of retailers through store traffic, product mix, conversion
rates, credit activity, advertising effectiveness, etc.
Comparable-Store Sales
Comparable-store sales results impact share prices, and reports from a given company, its competitors, or market leaders can
sometimes yield a high level of volatility in share prices.
Unit Growth
Retailers often grow sales and profitability through unit expansion. The availability of attractive real estate, the relative
saturation of the U.S. market, the availability of effective management and employees, and the potential expansion into other
countries and/or product lines will impact future results.
Fixed Costs and Uncontrollable Expenses
Retailers face uncontrollable cost volatility in many areas, including freight, medical costs, and insurance premiums, among
others. These may have an outsized impact on results.
Promotional Environment
The level of promotional activity from direct and indirect competitors can impact sales, profitability, and market position.
Company-Specific Risks for Aaron Rents
The consistency of the same-store sales results could begin to deteriorate as the store base ages. To some degree, the high
same-store sales results and the consistency of those results are a by-product of high unit growth. Comparable stores between
one and five years of age grow at a rate faster than the underlying market. As the unit growth rate slows, the proportion of those
younger stores in the comp store base declines.
Franchise Program Uncertainty
The company's future growth will depend heavily upon its ability to attract capable new franchisees. Franchissees must have
both the business acumen and financial wherewithall to operate stores successfully. If the company is unable to attract these
franchisees, for reasons within or outside of its control, results would be impacted.
Aaron Rents
67
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Aaron Rents
68