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Extended Mathematics 10
Miss Singhal
4th May 2015
World Population
Population is a measure of all the inhabitants of a particular place.
Earth now has over 7.2 billion people, and that number is growing.
Recently the population has been increasing at a slower rate,
however the growth now has more of a consequence on our daily
lives.
Part 1
x
a)
The formula for population growth is f(x) = P (1 + r) .
P = Original population
r = Rate of growth
In 1990, the world population reached 5.2 billion with an annual
population growth rate of 1.75%. Using the formula f(x) = 5.2
x
(1.0175) it is possible to make predictions about the future
population.
f(x) = 5.2 (1.0175)
Year
1990
1995
2005
2010
2050
X-Value
0
5
15
20
60
Population (billions)
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725
b)
Using the same formula it is also possible to determine what
the population was in previous years. As the population will be a
decrease from the original population, the x value will be negative.
For example, 1950 was 40 years before 1990. Therefore the formula
would be
-40
f(-40) = 5.2 (1.0175)
f(-40) = 2.598aaaaaaaa
c)
The population growth formula would also be useful for
predicting milestones, such as when the population will double in
size.
x
10.4 = 5.2 (1.0175)
2 = 1.0175
xaa
x = log1.0175 2
= 39.95
After approximately 40 years, in 2030, the population will have
doubled since 1990 to reach 10.4 billion. Based on the predictions
for the year 2010 and 2050, this seems reasonable.
d)
The one part of the formula that is changeable is the annual
population growth rate. It is very important that the rate be as
accurate as possible, as even a small change can create a large
difference in the predictions. If the population grows at a faster rate,
the r value will be changed.
Formula for a growth rate of 2%:
Year
1990
1995
2005
2010
2050
XValue
0
5
15
20
60
Population (billions)
1.75%
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725
2%
5.200
5.741
6.999
7.727
17.061
Part 2
1.
Population growth does not increase at a constant rate,
particularly over large periods of time. This model may not be
accurate even after two years as the growth rate fluctuates. There
are many factors that are not taken into account by the model, such
as a boom in birth rates, an outbreak of a fatal disease, war, or
other increase in accidental deaths. All the changes make it
necessary that the model is re-evaluated regularly to ensure that
the growth rate remains relevant and the predictions for the future
are as accurate as possible.
2.
A small change in the growth rate can have a large effect on
the population over a large period of time. The predicted values for
the first few consecutive years may be similar but over time the
values will grow wider apart.
For example:
Year
X-Value
1990
1995
2005
2010
2050
0
5
15
20
60
Year
X-Value
1990
1995
2005
2010
2050
0
5
15
20
60
1.70%
5.200
5.657
6.696
7.285
14.298
Population (billions)
1.75%
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725
1.80%
5.200
5.685
6.795
7.429
15.166
1.70%
0.000
0.530
3.495
6.108
?
1.80%
0.000
0.035
4.901
7.928
?
X-Value
2010
20
Year
X-Value
2010
20
1.75%
7.357
Population (billions)
2%
7.727
Actual
6.840
1990
1995
2005
2010
2050
XValue
0
5
15
20
60
Population (billions)
1.75%
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725
1.14%
5.200
5.574
6.406
6.867
11.975
put a strain on the worlds resources. After the Great Depression and
a long period of living thriftily made way for the baby boomers time
of prosperity. They created large debt for their countries and
founded the companies that are destroying our environment. As a
generation they had little regard for the future and the lifestyle of
excess has left many problems we are scrambling to fix. Monitoring
the population, and its future predictions allows us to be more
prepared for any changes, and prevent many problems.
10. If the worlds population increased much more rapidly than
expected there would be a lot of problems. A finite amount of land
and resources is incapable of supporting a potentially limitless
increasing population. Overpopulation is already a problem in many
countries, leading to a lack of resources, particularly with the
unsustainable lifestyles we already lead. Due to the finite nature of
many of our resources, including food and water, major conflicts
would arise around securing the resources and allocating them to
people. World population affects political discussions on
sustainability and development. Even with the increased need for a
sustainable lifestyle, we are not equipped to handle a rapid increase
in population.