Sahana Kanabar

Extended Mathematics 10
Miss Singhal
4th May 2015
World Population
Population is a measure of all the inhabitants of a particular place.
Earth now has over 7.2 billion people, and that number is growing.
Recently the population has been increasing at a slower rate,
however the growth now has more of a consequence on our daily
lives.
Part 1
x

a)
The formula for population growth is f(x) = P (1 + r) .
P = Original population
r = Rate of growth
In 1990, the world population reached 5.2 billion with an annual
population growth rate of 1.75%. Using the formula f(x) = 5.2
x
(1.0175) it is possible to make predictions about the future
population.
f(x) = 5.2 (1.0175)
Year
1990
1995
2005
2010
2050

X-Value
0
5
15
20
60

Population (billions)
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725

b)
Using the same formula it is also possible to determine what
the population was in previous years. As the population will be a
decrease from the original population, the x value will be negative.
For example, 1950 was 40 years before 1990. Therefore the formula
would be
-40
f(-40) = 5.2 (1.0175)
f(-40) = 2.598aaaaaaaa

c)
The population growth formula would also be useful for
predicting milestones, such as when the population will double in
size.
x
10.4 = 5.2 (1.0175)
2 = 1.0175

xaa

x = log1.0175 2
= 39.95
After approximately 40 years, in 2030, the population will have
doubled since 1990 to reach 10.4 billion. Based on the predictions
for the year 2010 and 2050, this seems reasonable.
d)
The one part of the formula that is changeable is the annual
population growth rate. It is very important that the rate be as
accurate as possible, as even a small change can create a large
difference in the predictions. If the population grows at a faster rate,
the r value will be changed.
Formula for a growth rate of 2%:
Year

1990
1995
2005
2010
2050

XValue
0
5
15
20
60

f(x) = 5.2 (1.02)

Population (billions)
1.75%
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725

2%
5.200
5.741
6.999
7.727
17.061

Part 2
1.
Population growth does not increase at a constant rate,
particularly over large periods of time. This model may not be
accurate even after two years as the growth rate fluctuates. There
are many factors that are not taken into account by the model, such
as a boom in birth rates, an outbreak of a fatal disease, war, or
other increase in accidental deaths. All the changes make it
necessary that the model is re-evaluated regularly to ensure that
the growth rate remains relevant and the predictions for the future
are as accurate as possible.
2.
A small change in the growth rate can have a large effect on
the population over a large period of time. The predicted values for

the first few consecutive years may be similar but over time the
values will grow wider apart.
For example:
Year
X-Value
1990
1995
2005
2010
2050

0
5
15
20
60

Year

X-Value

1990
1995
2005
2010
2050

0
5
15
20
60

1.70%
5.200
5.657
6.696
7.285
14.298

Population (billions)
1.75%
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725

1.80%
5.200
5.685
6.795
7.429
15.166

1.70%
0.000
0.530
3.495
6.108
?

Percentage Error (%)

1.75%
0.000
0.282
4.210
5.746
?

1.80%
0.000
0.035
4.901
7.928
?

As the table illustrates, after 5 years the estimated population

differentiates by 28 million, a small error margin considering the
initial difficulty in determining the exact population. After 15 years
the estimated populations have a difference of 100 million. After 60
years, the difference is almost 868 million. This could have many
complications regarding resource allocation, area development, and
many other things that are required to prepare for population
increase. However, the margin of error leaves some room for the
unpredictable changes in population that are constantly changing
the growth rate. It takes time for the population to grow, meaning
that the growth rate will only experience small changes. Even so, a
slight change in the growth rate used in the model will have a major
impact on any future population predictions.
3.
In order to determine the accuracy of the models, the
predicted values need to be compared to the actual population.
Below 2010 is used as an example with the growth rate of 1.75%,
2%, and the actual population.
Year

X-Value

2010

20

Year

X-Value

2010

20

1.75%
7.357

Population (billions)
2%
7.727

Actual
6.840

Percentage Error (%)

1.75%
2%
7.037
11.479

The prediction made for the 2010 population using both

models were considerably higher than the actual population. In
1990 the growth rate of the population was 1.75% but over time the
growth rate slowed down, taking the world population longer to
reach 7 billion. A 2% population growth rate is even higher than
1.75%, which gave it a larger percentage error. As time goes on, the
percentage error will increase, making the growth rate obsolete.
4.
Both models used assume a constant rate of population
growth each year. The predictions may be reasonable for the first
few years following the creation of the model but after a significant
period of time they become unreliable due to the changes in growth
rate. On average, the official predictions made by the United
Nations and the World Bank are off by about 6%. A more accurate
model could be made using the average growth rates of the
population from 1990 to 2010 but the models used the growth rate
from 1990 and before. For a prediction 20 years in the future using
these models is not reasonable.
5.
The current population growth rate is around 1.14%, a
significant decrease from the given growth rate of 1.75%.
Year

1990
1995
2005
2010
2050

XValue
0
5
15
20
60

Population (billions)
1.75%
5.200
5.671
6.746
7.357
14.725

1.14%
5.200
5.574
6.406
6.867
11.975

While the population may have been growing at a rate of 1.75% in

1990, by 2010 the growth rate of 1.14% gives much more accurate
predictions. While it could increase preparedness for growth to use
predictions that overestimate population, it could have a big impact
on actual numbers and make planning for population increase
unreliable. Although the growth rate may have slowed down for
many reasons, due to the increasing size of the actual population
this is still a significant population increase every year. Because it is
an exponential equation, the predicted population is growing from a
percentage of the total population.
6.
It is not reasonable to assume a constant annual rate of
growth for the world population. Population growth rates are

affected by birth and death rates, which are constantly changing.

Unless one person was born for every person that died, the
population is either increasing or decreasing. The average
population growth rate can be applied but will only be accurate for a
short span of time. Growth rates fluctuate and cannot be modeled
as a constant if completely accurate answers are wanted. For
example, the population growth rate was 1.75% in 1990, but was
1.5% in 1995 and is now around 1.14%. Even two consecutive years
can have a large difference. The world population growth rate was
1.7% in 1962 and jumped to 2.1% in 1962. Specific countries can
also have their population affected by migration and emigration.
7.
The more specific the results are, the less accurate they also
are. Population is measured in millions or billions so as to give an
idea of what the population is without getting into the details.
Predictions are made on an assumed growth rate that may or may
not hold true for the time frame under which the growth is
predicted. The small numbers are constantly changing as people are
born or die, but it takes time for those numbers to equal millions.
Knowing the population in millions is still useful for showing change
and determining the general impact the population may have.
8.
Today China has a population of approximately 1.400 billion
(2015), the largest population for any country in the world. In order
to slow the population growth, the government introduced a onechild policy in late 1979 that greatly reduced the countrys birth
rate. Before the policy people were encouraged to have many
children to increase the countrys workforce, but it soon became
clear that with the 1.9% rate of population growth accommodating
this population would quickly become unsustainable. Benefits to
families with only one child included increased access to education,
childcare, and healthcare. The policy has been very successful, as
the current population growth rate is 0.7%. The government sought
a solution to a future problem by implementing the one-child policy
as a precaution against a potential lack of resources. This policy has
created some new problems, such as an aging population and an
increase in the gender gap due to cultural values, but was
successful at addressing the population growth.
9.
In a real life context, it is very important to be able to model
population growth. The population has direct implications for
political stability, resource (food, water, shelter, jobs) security, and
climate change. The population growth rate will keep changing;
however making predictions about the future population allows us to
be more prepared for the effects it will have. The initial increase in
population that happened after the end of World War II has already

put a strain on the worlds resources. After the Great Depression and
a long period of living thriftily made way for the baby boomers time
of prosperity. They created large debt for their countries and
founded the companies that are destroying our environment. As a
generation they had little regard for the future and the lifestyle of
excess has left many problems we are scrambling to fix. Monitoring
the population, and its future predictions allows us to be more
prepared for any changes, and prevent many problems.
10. If the worlds population increased much more rapidly than
expected there would be a lot of problems. A finite amount of land
and resources is incapable of supporting a potentially limitless
increasing population. Overpopulation is already a problem in many
countries, leading to a lack of resources, particularly with the
unsustainable lifestyles we already lead. Due to the finite nature of
many of our resources, including food and water, major conflicts
would arise around securing the resources and allocating them to
people. World population affects political discussions on
sustainability and development. Even with the increased need for a
sustainable lifestyle, we are not equipped to handle a rapid increase
in population.