Professional Documents
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METHODOLOGY
SURVEY INFORMATION
1008 autodial phone interviews
conducted among likely
Republican primary voters in the
early states of New Hampshire
(21%), Iowa (21%), and South
Carolina (59%).
Conducted May 19-20, 2015
Margin of error is +/- 3.1%
CANDIDATE AWARENESS
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would
strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is
unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7
to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a
candidate were considered Aware, while those who selected 9 were considered Not Aware.
1-7 Aware
9 Not Aware
JEB BUSH
94
MIKE HUCKABEE
93
CHRIS CHRISTIE
89
11
RAND PAUL
88
12
MARCO RUBIO
88
12
RICK SANTORUM
88
13
TED CRUZ
87
14
LINDSEY GRAHAM
87
14
RICK PERRY
86
14
BEN CARSON
80
21
SCOTT WALKER
79
22
BOBBY JINDAL
73
CARLY FIORINA
JOHN KASICH
27
67
61
33
39
CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you
would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate.
Press 6 if it is unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use
any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.
1 Certainly Consider
MARCO RUBIO
2-3 Consider
15
SCOTT WALKER
TED CRUZ
JEB BUSH
RICK PERRY
RICK SANTORUM
CHRIS CHRISTIE
24
BOBBY JINDAL
25
CARLY FIORINA
23
JOHN KASICH
18
12
18
15
12
17
56
3.97
3.99
4.55
12
4.05
12
4.03
28
13
3.73
4.21
26
48
28
3.82
13
20
43
3.41
15
19
26
10
4.03
18
30
3.12
20
18
30
28
14
16
26
33
3.28
17
15
22
33
10
15
29
31
RAND PAUL
LINDSEY GRAHAM
22
28
11
10
Mean
Scores
9
8
33
33
15
10
33
29
13
25
31
19
MIKE HUCKABEE
41
21
BEN CARSON
4+9 Neutral
4.51
15
4.33
New Hampshire
Iowa
WALKER
64
RUBIO
52
South Carolina
RUBIO
57
RUBIO
57
WALKER
47
WALKER
49
HUCKABEE
57
BUSH
45
CARSON
48
CARSON
54
PAUL
42
HUCKABEE
47
CARSON
42
CRUZ
CRUZ
48
42
DERIVED BALLOT
Derived ballot is based
on candidate rank
order among the
individual respondent
candidate ratings. If a
respondent had a clear
candidate preference
(they ranked that
candidate more
positively than all
others) that candidate
received one vote.
Respondents
preferences were split
proportionally if they
rated 2 or 3 candidates
most highly. If a voter
was split among more
than 3 candidates or
they did not rank any
candidates positively,
they were labeled
undecided.
SCOTT WALKER
10
BEN CARSON
MARCO RUBIO
JEB BUSH
MIKE HUCKABEE
RAND PAUL
TED CRUZ
LINDSEY GRAHAM
CHRIS CHRISTIE 4
RICK SANTORUM 2
RICK PERRY 2
CARLY FIORINA 2
JOHN KASICH
BOBBY JINDAL
UNDECIDED
30
POTENTIAL GROWTH
We looked at each candidates total consideration score (1-3) and
subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of
each candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.
Current Derived Ballot
MARCO RUBIO
SCOTT WALKER
10
MIKE HUCKABEE
BEN CARSON
RICK PERRY
TED CRUZ
JEB BUSH
RAND PAUL
CHRIS CHRISTIE
RICK SANTORUM
BOBBY JINDAL
CARLY FIORINA
LINDSEY GRAHAM
JOHN KASICH
Potential Growth
48
42
39
39
38
37
35
35
34
32
29
27
22
15
12
TOP CHOICES
Walker
Rubio
Paul
Graham
Carson
19%
19%
17%
15%
15%
14%
14%
11%
7%
6%
6%
5%
3%
Bush
Cruz
Bush
21%
Walker
10
Graham
Huckabee
Paul
Huckabee
Rubio
Carson
Cruz
Christie
Christie
Fiorina
Kasich
Santorum
2
Kasich
10
Perry
Jindal
LESS VIABLE
Santorum
Perry
Fiorina
20
30
Jindal
40
50
60
*Conversion rate was calculated by
dividing the total derived ballot by the
total consideration (1-3) score.
CANDIDATE PREFERENCES
Generally speaking
what type of
candidate do you
prefer nominating?
26
Mainstream
25
Social Conservative
17
Tea Party
16
Unsure
Libertarian
Stand by
principles
45
Get Things
Done
55
ISSUE PREFERENCES
How would you describe your views in the
area of (social/fiscal) issues?
45
37
33
29
23
9
FISCAL
SOCIAL
17
Very
Conservative
3
Somewhat
Conservative
Moderate
Somewhat
Liberal
2
Very
Liberal
59-8-33
33
26
19
14
8
Definitely
Probably
Probably Not
Definitely Not
Unsure
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION
Which of the following best describe your religious affiliation?
29
31
19
13
7
2
Evangelical
Protestant
Mainline
Protestant
Roman
Catholic
NonChristian
Agnostic/
Atheist/
Non-Religious
Unsure/
Prefer Not
to Say
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