Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ference. The number of companies of the working-capital alone— “Security Analysis,” they suggested
trading below current asset value disregarding all other assets—and two possible reasons why buying
again spiked during the post-war if the earnings record and prospects stocks below current asset value may
period from 1947 to 1950. How- are reasonably satisfactory, there fail:
ever, this time, high earnings forced is strong reason to believe that the 1) Changing intrinsic value; or
working capital levels above lagging investor is getting substantially more 2) Market behavior.
stock prices. However, the market than his money’s worth.” The “market-behavior problem,” as
once again ignored these “bargain Graham’s need for a “margin of they termed it, relates to the fact that
issues.” safety” shines through in this ex- there is nothing that says that a stock
Graham and Dodd pointed out, ample. First of all, he isn’t interested price must adjust to the value an
however, that when stocks trade in the total assets of a company. analyst places on it. The authors also
below the company’s current asset Instead, he is only interested in the argue that intrinsic value is always
level they are, in effect, trading below most liquid assets on the balance changing based on the development
the company’s liquidating value. As- sheet. In “The Intelligent Investor,” of the business—earnings, dividends,
suming a company’s working etc. Therefore, if a company
capital is conservatively trading below current asset
stated, it is reasonable to “Using net current assets value loses money or sub-
assume that most companies stantially reduces its working
can be sold off for at least the
value of these assets. Further-
as a proxy for liquidating capital, its intrinsic value will
likely be less than it was when
more, they felt it was also it was initially evaluated.
reasonable to expect that the value, Graham and Dodd As a result of this decline in
company’s remaining assets— intrinsic value, the stock may
plant, property, equipment
and other miscellaneous as-
were able to create an actual no longer be undervalued
and, in fact, may now be
sets—would fetch enough to overvalued.
offset “shrinkage” in current relationship between the Graham and Dodd felt that,
assets resulting from con- given the market’s reaction
verting them into cash.
Using net current assets as
market price of a stock and to stocks selling below net
current asset value, investors
a proxy for liquidating value, were avoiding these issues
Graham and Dodd were able the realizable value of a for fear that the companies’
to create an actual relation- prospects were so poor that
ship between the market price
of a stock and the realizable
company’s assets.” working capital would decline
in the future. However, in
value of a company’s assets. analyzing companies that
When they found companies trading Graham points out that a business were selling below current asset value
well below their liquidating values, should be worth to any private owner in 1932, 1933, 1938, and 1939,
they bought them in bulk. at least the amount of the working Graham and Dodd discovered that
capital, since the business ordinarily the market’s indifference was mis-
Buying “Bargain Issues” would be expected to fetch that much placed. They concluded that:
at liquidation. Furthermore, Graham “…stocks selling below working
In the 1949 edition of his book wasn’t satisfied with merely buying capital and showing a fair record of
“The Intelligent Investor,” Graham firms trading at less than net cur- earnings and dividends are likely to
offered this definition of a “bargain rent asset value. He required an even be ‘bargain’ issues and are likely to
issue”: greater margin of safety and only turn out to be unusually satisfactory
“To be as concrete as possible, let looked at stocks whose prices were purchases.”
us suggest that an issue is not a true less than two-thirds of net current To offset the potential of investing
‘bargain’ unless the indicated value asset value. in individual stocks that turn out to
is at least 50 percent more than the be unprofitable, Graham suggested
price.” Risks of “Undervalued holding at least 30 stocks at a time.
He goes even further when it comes Stocks”
to stock price relative to a company’s Screening on NCAV
net current asset value: Graham and Dodd were keenly
“…if a common stock can be aware that some investments in low- Table 1 summarizes the Graham
bought at no more than two-thirds price-to-NCAV stocks would fail. In approach to NCAV stock selec-
2 Computerized Investing
OnLine Exclusive
tion. Now that we have defined the screening process. Therefore, we problems with the company itself or
his requirement for buying stocks created a custom field that deducts problems with its industry. Graham
based on net current asset value, we total liabilities and preferred stock admitted that not all stocks chosen
turn our attention to finding stocks from current assets (all from the in this manner will have excessive
that meet that requirement. The latest fiscal year) and divides this by returns, which is why he stressed the
easiest and quickest way to identify the average number of shares out- need for adequate diversification. In
companies sharing similar financial standing over the last fiscal year. (See an article published in 1975 for a
characteristics is by using either a Table 2 for the formula.) seminar, Graham states that the port-
Web- or software-based screening Using this custom field and re- folio at his investment firm Graham-
tool. We used AAII’s Stock Investor quiring that the latest weekly closing Newman often included more than
Pro fundamental stock screening and price is not more than 66.7% of net 100 bargain issues at a time.
research database to develop our current asset value per share, we ar- In order to winnow our group even
Graham NCAV screen. As of January rive at 456 companies as of January further, and to potentially weed out
22, 2010, the Stock Investor database 22, 2010. some of the duds, some qualifying
consisted of 9,874 companies traded Even though we have eliminated filters are required.
on U.S. exchanges. over 95% of the companies in the
Graham’s NCAV approach begins current database, we still have Profitable Operations
by identifying stocks trading at a over 400 candidates from which to In “The Intelligent Investor,”
discount to the company’s net current choose. Furthermore, many of these Graham suggests buying stocks that
asset value per share; specifically, at companies are cheap for a reason— are priced below net current as-
least one-third below net asset value. perhaps either because of underlying sets only if the company’s “earnings
We are not aware
of any screening Table 2. Graham NCAV Custom Fields for Use With AAII’s Stock Investor Pro
services that allow
you to screen for Custom Field Name Formula
this specific cri- Net Curr Assets per Shr Y1 ([Current assets Y1]-[Total liabilities Y1]-[Preferred stock Y1])/[Shares Average Y1]
terion. However, Total Equity Y1 [Equity (common) Y1]+[Preferred stock Y1]
with Stock Investor Curr Liab + LT Debt Y1 [Current liabilities Y1]+[Long-term debt Y1]
Pro, you can create
custom fields that Stock Investor Pro subscribers can download a text file of these fields at www.aaii.com/ci/201002/customfields.txt for cutting
and pasting into the Custom Field Editor.
you can then use in
record and prospects are reason- cash flows are just that—cash gener- equity to liabilities and debt:
ably satisfactory.” As we mentioned ated from the operations of a com-
earlier, one way a company’s intrinsic pany. Generally speaking, cash from Stock equity (including preferred stock) ≥
value falls—thereby making an operations is defined as revenues less current liabilities + debt
apparently undervalued stock less all operating expenses.
undervalued—is by losing money. To Adding these criteria to our For this filter, we had to create two
this end, we require companies to Graham NCAV screen lowers the custom fields within Stock Investor:
have positive earnings per share from number of passing companies to five. The first totaled the value of a com-
continuing operations for the trailing pany’s common and preferred equity
12 months as well as for each of the Strong Balance Sheet for the last fiscal year and the second
last four fiscal quarters. This lowers Having isolated companies with is the sum of a company’s current
the total number of passing compa- minimum levels of profitability and liabilities and long-term debt (see
nies from 456 to 17. operating cash flow, we shift our Table 2 for the formulas). Requiring
A company with positive earnings attention back to the balance sheet. that a company’s total equity be
can still have problems paying its NCAV is a balance-sheet-based greater than or equal to its current
bills if it does not generate sufficient metric and companies with posi- liabilities and long-term debt did not
cash from its normal operations. This tive NCAV have current assets that eliminate any additional companies,
could force it to liquidate assets to exceed the total value of their total so five companies still remain.
meet its obligations. Therefore, we liabilities and preferred stock. Lastly, we excluded non-U.S.-based
also require that companies have For another test of financial companies and stocks trading as
positive operating cash flow over the strength, we look to the 1975 American depositary receipts (ADRs)
last 12 months and for each of the seminar materials in which Graham on U.S. exchanges. This is to avoid
last four fiscal quarters. Operating suggests comparing a company’s total issues related to differing accounting
4 Computerized Investing
OnLine Exclusive
Table 4. Graham NCAV Criteria for Use With AAII’s Stock Investor Pro
standards and potential withholding Analysis,” Graham and Dodd write important to stress that the listing in
taxes on dividends. Finally, stocks that they used this number as a buy Table 5 is not intended to be a buy
in the financial sector are excluded and sell signal: When the number or recommended list. Stocks meeting
because their financial statements are was large (many firms selling on the the Graham NCAV screen require ad-
not directly comparable to other in- NYSE below their net current asset ditional due diligence before adding
dustries. Adding the final three filters values), the market had reached a them to your investment portfolio.
eliminated two additional companies, buy range; when the number was
leaving us with three companies very small, the market was danger- Current Financials
passing our Graham NCAV screen. ously high. During the Depression By their nature, most companies
Table 3 summarizes the filters for years, when the market was vastly trading below NCAV are very small
the screen and Table 4 shows the oversold, Graham found such issues in terms of market capitalization and
criteria as used in Stock Investor Pro. to be plentiful. However, the bull trading volume. Of the 456 com-
market that began in 1949 led to panies whose price is two-thirds or
Passing Companies such a dearth of these same stocks less of NCAV, almost 90% trade on
that Graham and his partners dis- the Over the Counter Bulletin Board
Table 5 lists the three companies solved the Graham-Newman invest- (OTCBB) or on the pink sheets.
passing the Graham NCAV screen as ment firm in 1956. Since such an overwhelming number
of January 22, 2010. The number of of the current low-price-to-NCAV
companies selling at a sub-current- Due Diligence stocks trade over the counter, we
asset basis will rise and fall de- chose not to exclude them.
pending on the market. In “Security At this point, I feel it is extremely When companies trade over the
counter, they are not required to $17 million. would be hesitant to buy a stock with
file reports with the SEC. Financial Low market-cap stocks often also a bid-ask spread of more than 2%.
analysis is only as good as the finan- have low trading volume, some- Looking at CDBT that same after-
cial data on which it is based, so it is times making it difficult for even an noon, its bid price was $0.48 and the
imperative to have current financial individual investor to accumulate a ask price was $0.50, for a percentage
data compiled following accepted meaningful number of shares without spread of 4.2%.
accounting principles. When we look moving the stock price. In this case,
at our passing companies, red flags we borrow a rule used with the AAII Conclusion
begin to appear. Shadow Stock Portfolio: The average
First off, we find that BGI Inc. daily number of shares traded should Benjamin Graham made a suc-
(BGII) has not filed a 10-Q or 10-K be four times the amount needed for cessful career out of buying low-
since 2006. Next, we learn that GSI the position. Otherwise, it may be priced stocks that offered him a
Group (GSIGQ) is in bankruptcy too difficult to get in and out of the “margin of safety.” However, the sim-
and filed for Chapter 11 protection in position quickly. plicity of his methodology is equally
November 2009. This highlights the For example, if I had $5,000 to impressive. Even he was aware of
need to invest in a well-diversified invest in China Dasheng Biotech- this, as he commented in the 1973
collection of low-price-to-NCAV nology (CDBT), I would be able to edition of “The Intelligent Investor,”:
stocks to mitigate the risk of any buy 6,330 shares at its January 22, “It always seemed, and still seems,
one individual issue. Furthermore, 2010, closing price of $0.79. There- ridiculously simple to say that if one
GSIGQ’s latest 10-Q and 10-K fore, I would like to see CDBT trade can acquire a diversified group of
reports date back to 2008. Lastly, at least 25,000 shares a day (specifi- common stocks at a price less than
China Dasheng Biotechnology’s latest cally 25,320, or 6,330 × 4). At the the applicable net current assets
10-Q dates to March of 2009 and its Scottrade Web site, we find that the alone—after deducting all prior
most recent 10-K is for the period 10-day average trading volume for claims, and counting as zero the fixed
ending June 30, 2008. Since this CDBT is 74,300. and other assets—the results should
data is what led to these companies When looking at illiquid, low- be quite satisfactory.”
passing the screen in the first place, I trading-volume stocks, we often find Despite the simplicity of his ap-
would be hesitant to act on them un- higher bid-ask spreads—the amount proach, it seems that, for the most
less I could find more recent financial by which the ask price exceeds the part, the market ignored the stocks
data. bid. This is essentially the differ- Graham most coveted. To be able to
ence between the highest price that a go against the mood of the market
Liquidity buyer is willing to pay for a stock and takes conviction and faith in your
When a company’s stock trades the lowest price for which a seller approach, both of which Graham
over the counter, it usually means is willing to sell it. Outside of the had in great quantity. Furthermore,
that the company is too small to commission your broker charges, the Graham achieved his impressive
meet exchange listing requirements. bid-ask spread is the cost of buying track record by investing in bulk,
Looking at the three companies that or selling the stock; the higher the which allowed him to all but elimi-
passed our Graham NCAV screen spread, the higher the cost of buying nate the risk of individual issues.
in Table 5, we see that the market or selling. For BGII, with its zero The number of stocks meeting this
caps for these companies range from 10-day average trading volume, its requirement will ebb and flow with
$100,000 (yes, that is one hundred spread was 100% the afternoon the movement of the market. Cur-
thousand dollars) for BGI Inc. to al- of January 28 ($0.0055 bid versus rently, the number of companies is
most $33 million for GSI Group Inc. a $0.011 ask). That means that if low, reflecting the impressive run in
Even AAII’s Shadow Stock Portfolio, I were to buy this stock, the price the market over the second-half of
which invests in micro-cap stocks, would need to rise 100% in order for 2009. With such a small number of
sets a minimum market cap floor of me just to break even. Realistically, I candidates, it is important to limit
your risk in individual stocks. Fur-
thermore, as our analysis illustrated,
Wayne A. Thorp, CFA, is editor of Computerized Investing and not all companies that end up passing
the Graham NCAV are worthy invest-
AAII’s financial analyst. Follow him on Twitter @CI_Editor.
ment candidates.
6 Computerized Investing