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As Roberts points out, 500 trillion cubic feet of gas was estimated by the Penn State geologist Terry
Engelder. The estimate is for the technically recoverable reserve, or T.R.R. This represents not just the
gas in place but rather that which is likely to be produced from the shale. In other words, it takes into
account todays technology. The T.R.R. was also estimated by the Energy Department in 2011 at 400
trillion cubic feet.
All of these estimates are speculative, since they are assessments of how much gas we can recover
from a reservoir at a depth of thousands of feet in a field that underlies more than 100,000 square
miles in parts of eight states.
To date, most of the drilling has occurred in only two states Pennsylvania and West Virginia and
until 2010 Pennsylvania embargoed release of certain kinds of production data. Even today the state
controls the data release. Our point in citing 500 trillion cubic feet was to emphasize the fact that the
reservoir is large, and we stand by our statement that the Marcellus shale could contain this quantity.
The release of additional data will make future estimates less speculative.
Roberts also questions our estimate of a 1 to 2 percent rate of cement or casing construction problems
in wells, this based on estimates from engineers in the field. Since we wrote our article, we went back
to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection data online for Notices of Violations in
Marcellus wells and calculated a casing/cement problem rate of about 3 percent between 2008 and
March 2013. We dont know of any higher published estimates for casing construction problem rates,
but we note that a higher apparent rate can be gleaned from the data if repeats in the data set are not
removed.
Cornell researchers have raised considerable concern about loss of methane during natural gas
drilling and production, and this is both a valid concern and another area where additional data are
welcome. As we stated in our op-ed, we need these facts so we can understand and make decisions
about fracking relative to other energy sources such as coal.
We agree with Roberts that methane has sometimes found its way into water wells and that property
values have at times been harmed by various incidents. No one should neglect these risks. Like most
industrial processes, fracking can have negative environmental consequences, and communities and
governments must assess these risks by looking at the facts which, however, are not always easy to
obtain.
Water quality issues, when they happen, often are litigated and the data are removed from public
scrutiny. When water wells or surface waters are tested by industry, the data are often not released;
likewise, homeowners often do not want to release their well water analyses. Many people in
Pennsylvania are cooperating on the shalenetwork.org database. We need these facts and many of us
are seeking them.
But in seeking the facts we may also find that shale gas has advantages over other energy sources such
as coal. For those of us who live in states in the Marcellus region, development of this resource may
occur in many cases right in our backyards. Are we ready for that?
Many would prefer to import energy from someone elses region and export the environmental
problems to someone elses backyard. Maybe its more ethical to use our own energy and be faced
with our own environmental consequences. If we dont like the local consequences, we must demand
regulations. But turning away from fracking without seeking the facts is neither the smart nor the
ethical choice.