ALBERTA ISSUES

[MAY 2015]

The poll surveyed a random sample of 3,018 Alberta

residents by Smart IVR on May 25th, 2015.
Mainstreet surveyed a mix of landlines and cell phones.
Margin of error +/- 1.78%, 19/20.

ALBERTANS BACK ROYALTY REVIEW, MAJORITY OPPOSES CARBON TAX

May 27th, 2015. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 3,018 Albertans finds 51% opposed to a carbon tax
while 65% back a royalty review. The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 1.78%, 19/20. It is the
first monthly Alberta Issues poll since Mainstreets extensive coverage of the 2015 Alberta Election.
The trend in Alberta continues to show that a majority are much more optimistic about their own
finances than that of the province as a whole, this was the case prior to Budget 2015 and Election 2015.
Overall optimism in both personal finances and provincial finances has increased since the election of
Premier Notley, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies.
A majority of Albertans support a royalty review and think Alberta should increase royalties. This is good
news for the Notley government but not good news for the oil and gas industry. With oil prices remaining
below $60 per barrel, new investments in the Alberta oil patch may be risky in the short term until the
new royalty is determined. In the long term, it's unlikely this will affect the industry.
Approval for Premier Notley is very high; over 6 in 10 people indicated they approve of the new Premier,
with almost 4 in 10 indicating "strong approval". This is a very strong number for a Premier who was
recently elected by 41% of the popular vote.
A carbon tax continues to be widely unpopular across Alberta despite its potential for helping to fill the
deficit gap left by plummeting oil prices in late 2014, he finished.
Highlights:
- 62% approve of Premier Notley, approval jumps to 75% in Edmonton
- 43% oppose a PC-Wildrose Merger; 34% oppose a Liberal-Alberta merger
- 65% support a royalty review, 46% say rates should go up
- 51% oppose a carbon tax, 42% support it
-30For more information:
David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Available for interview from Toronto:
Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Details
The poll surveyed a random sample of 3,018 Alberta residents by Smart IVR on May 25th, 2015. Mainstreet
polled a mixture of home phones and cell phones.
About Mainstreet Technologies
Mainstreet Technologies is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election and Februarys by-election in Sudbury.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as
Premier?
10%

Total Approval
Total Disapproval
Not Sure

28%

62%

BREAKDOWNS
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

36% 26% 40% 43%
29% 30%
21% 24%
13%
16%
11%
6%
16%
18%
12% 11%
6%
9%
15% 15%
295
469
967 1287
EDMONTON
47%
28%
8%
10%
7%
950

CALGARY
37%
25%
13%
16%
10%
1026

Male
35%
26%
13%
16%
10%
1446

Female
36%
27%
12%
14%
10%
1572

REST OF AB
31%
27%
14%
16%
12%
1042

January 2015

May 2015

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or
pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?

41%
45%
13%
24%
49%
27%
5
Optimistic

BREAKDOWNS

10

15
Pessimistic

20

25

30

35

40

45

Not Sure

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

47% 39% 39% 39%
42% 54% 46% 37%
12%
8%
15% 23%
295
469
967 1287

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
41%
45%
13%
950

CALGARY
45%
43%
12%
1026

Male
39%
47%
14%
1446

Female
44%
44%
13%
1572

REST OF AB
40%
47%
14%
1042

January 2015

May 2015

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or
pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?

52%
28%
20%
48%
28%
24%
5

Optimistic
BREAKDOWNS

10

15
Pessimistic

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Not Sure

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

52% 46% 54% 56%
26% 33% 29% 22%
22%
21%
17% 21%
295
469
967 1287

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
51%
28%
21%
950

CALGARY
53%
26%
21%
1026

Male
50%
31%
19%
1446

Female
53%
26%
22%
1572

REST OF AB
51%
29%
20%
1042

Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next
12 months?

May 2015

36%
45%
11%

January 2015

9%

46%
30%
14%
10%
5

Increase
BREAKDOWNS
INCREASE
STAY THE SAME
DECREASE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
INCREASE
STAY THE SAME
DECREASE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

10

15

Decrease

20

25

30

Stay the same

35

40

Not Sure

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

44% 30% 30% 37%
40% 51%
46% 40%
8%
11%
14% 15%
8%
9%
9%
8%
295
469
967 1287
EDMONTON
33%
48%
10%
8%
950

45

CALGARY
37%
45%
10%
8%
1026

Male
36%
45%
11%
8%
1446

Female
35%
44%
12%
9%
1572

REST OF AB
36%
43%
12%
9%
1042

December 2014

May 2015

Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do
you support or oppose a merger?

42%
43%
15%
33%
58%
10%
5

10

Support
BREAKDOWNS
STRONGLY SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
STRONGLY OPPOSE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
STRONGLY OPPOSE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

15

20

25

Oppose

30

35

40

45

50

55

Not Sure
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
23%
17%
16% 14%
29% 30%
13% 17%
14%
14%
19% 20%
17%
25% 38% 33%
17%
14%
15% 15%
295
469
967 1287
EDMONTON
18%
24%
17%
26%
16%
950

CALGARY
16%
25%
16%
27%
15%
1026

Male
20%
25%
16%
27%
13%
1446

Female
17%
23%
16%
27%
17%
1572

REST OF AB
19%
23%
16%
27%
15%
1042

Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support
or oppose a merger?

31%

34%

Support
Oppose
Not Sure

BREAKDOWNS
STRONGLY SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
STRONGLY OPPOSE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
STRONGLY OPPOSE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

34%

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

12%
11%
12% 11%
23% 23%
17% 14%
3%
5%
10% 9%
24% 29% 29% 32%
38% 32% 32% 34%
295
469
967 1287
EDMONTON
10%
22%
6%
27%
35%
950

CALGARY
11%
21%
7%
30%
32%
1026

Male
12%
19%
6%
29%
34%
1446

Female
11%
21%
6%
27%
35%
1572

REST OF AB
12%
20%
6%
27%
35%
1042

Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review

of royalty rates for oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?
6%

29%

Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure
65%

BREAKDOWNS
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

36% 38% 43% 41%
31%
25%
21% 24%
14%
14%
9% 12%
15%
16%
20% 14%
4%
6%
8%
9%
295
469
967 1287
EDMONTON
43%
23%
12%
16%
6%
950

CALGARY
42%
24%
10%
19%
6%
1026

Male
38%
27%
13%
17%
6%
1446

Female
40%
25%
13%
16%
7%
1572

REST OF AB
36%
28%
14%
15%
7%
1042

From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for
oil, the oil sands and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?

14%

7%

Increase
46%

Stay The Same

Decrease
Not Sure

33%

BREAKDOWNS
INCREASE
STAY THE SAME
DECREASE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

INCREASE
STAY THE SAME
DECREASE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

50%
51%
40% 40%
34% 30% 34% 35%
5%
6%
8%
9%
11%
13%
18% 17%
295
469
967 1287
EDMONTON
46%
34%
7%
14%
950

CALGARY
46%
33%
6%
14%
1026

Male
47%
33%
6%
14%
1446

Female
46%
33%
7%
14%
1572

REST OF AB
47%
32%
7%
14%
1042

Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties,
or pay more in fees for greenhouse gas emissions?
15%
30%

Pay More In Royalties

Pay More Based On Emissions
Neither

26%

Not Sure

29%

BREAKDOWNS
PAY MORE IN ROYALTIES
PAY MORE BASED ON EMMISSIONS
NEITHER
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

27% 29% 33% 36% 30%
31%
36% 26% 25% 25% 30%
27%
26% 34% 23% 17% 27%
25%
11%
12%
20% 21% 13%
17%
295
469
967 1287 1446
1572

PAY MORE IN ROYALTIES

PAY MORE BASED ON EMMISSIONS
NEITHER
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

EDMONTON CALGARY REST OF AB

31%
36%
28%
26%
24%
31%
28%
27%
25%
16%
14%
15%
950
1026
1042

And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both
business and consumers?
7%

42%

Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure

51%

BREAKDOWNS
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

14%
12%
21% 20%
29% 29% 23% 20%
20% 19%
15% 15%
33% 35% 30% 35%
3%
5%
10% 10%
295
469
967 1287
EDMONTON
17%
24%
18%
34%
7%
950

CALGARY
16%
25%
19%
34%
6%
1026

Male
16%
27%
17%
35%
6%
1446

Female
17%
26%
18%
31%
7%
1572

REST OF AB
16%
28%
17%
33%
7%
1042

SCRIPT

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
Q2. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state
of the Alberta economy?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not sure
Q3. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own
familys financial situation?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not sure
Q4. Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next 12 months?
Crude Oil Prices will increase
Crude Oil Prices will stay the same
Crude Oil Prices will decrease
Not sure
Q5. Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do you support or
oppose a merger?
Strongly support a merger
Somewhat support a merger
Somewhat oppose a merger
Strongly oppose a merger
Not sure
Q6. Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support or oppose a
merger?

SCRIPT (CONT.)

Strongly support a merger

Somewhat support a merger
Somewhat oppose a merger
Strongly oppose a merger
Not sure
Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty rates for
oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?
Strongly approve of a royalty review
Somewhat approve of a royalty review
Somewhat disapprove of a royalty review
Strongly disapprove of a royalty review
Not sure
Q8. From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for oil, the oil sands
and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?
Rates should go up
Rates should stay the same
Rates should go down
Not sure
Q9. Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties, or pay more in fees
for greenhouse gas emissions?
Energy companies should pay more in royalties
Energy companies should pay more based on greenhouse gas emissions
Neither
Not sure
Q10. And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both business and
consumers?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure