U.S.

Employment Situation 2015 / 2017 Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
05/06/15
U.S. employment prospects for the 2015/2017 appear to show some risk of overheating by the end of 2016.

BLS link: The Employment Situation News Release

Scribd link: US Employment Situation 2014-2015 Outlook
Annual data
The growth rate of the civilian labor force, limited below 1% per year, projected for the period 2015/2017, due to the structure of the total
population growth and the assumption of maintaining similar level of enrollment in the armed forces.
Because the projection is made assuming the current maintenance of the main economic variables (especially the interest rate monetary policy of
the Federal Reserve), the unemployment rate would fall below 4% in the 4th quarter of 2016.
A less than 4% unemployment level could mean that employers must provide pay increases in real terms, above the growth rate of labor productivity
in order to retain staff, while constitute a bottleneck for growth physical production or supply of goods and services produced domestically.
The most vulnerable to overheating of the economy appear to be building activities, manufacturing of durable goods and services professionals.

2010
2011
153,885 153,618
14,808 13,737
9.62%
8.94%
139,077 139,882
8,808
8,039
130,269 131,843
705
788
5,518
5,531
11,529 11,725
7,064
7,273
4,465
4,453
24,641 25,066
5,452
5,543
14,445 14,668
4,192
4,303
553
553
2,707
2,673
7,695
7,697
16,723 17,328
19,888 20,231
13,042 13,351
5,331
5,361
22,490 22,092
2010
-0.20%
3.59%
0.35%
-0.58%
1.55%
-0.73%
1.55%
-8.29%
-2.69%
-3.02%
-2.17%
-1.06%
-2.40%
-0.53%
-1.07%
-1.27%
-3.43%
-1.82%
0.90%
1.74%
-0.24%
-0.66%
-0.28%
Latest data
Own estimate

2011
-0.17%
-7.23%
-0.68%
0.58%
-8.74%
1.21%
11.81%
0.23%
1.71%
2.95%
-0.26%
1.73%
1.67%
1.55%
2.65%
-0.03%
-1.27%
0.02%
3.62%
1.72%
2.37%
0.56%
-1.77%

Empolyment situation (000) SA

2012
2013
2014
2015
154,965 155,387 155,899 157,386
12,498 11,455
9,596
8,217
8.07%
7.37%
6.16%
5.22%
142,467 143,932 146,303 149,169
8,369
7,538
7,280
7,043
134,098 136,394 139,023 142,125
848
863
896
887
5,645
5,857
6,138
6,432
11,926 12,018 12,188
12,382
7,469
7,546
7,686
7,854
4,457
4,472
4,503
4,528
25,471 25,856 26,376
26,946
5,667
5,734
5,826
5,928
14,836 15,075 15,362
15,665
4,415
4,497
4,635
4,792
553
552
553
562
2,675
2,706
2,740
2,795
7,783
7,886
7,978
8,128
17,934 18,522 19,095
19,765
20,697 21,096 21,473
22,027
13,773 14,259 14,709
15,170
5,430
5,483
5,573
5,648
21,918 21,849 21,857
21,945
YoY
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.88% 0.27%
0.33%
0.95%
-9.01% -8.35% -16.23% -14.37%
-0.88% -0.69% -1.22% -0.93%
1.85% 1.03%
1.65%
1.96%
4.11% -9.93% -3.43% -3.24%
1.71% 1.71%
1.93%
2.23%
7.56%
1.81%
3.80% -1.01%
2.06%
3.75%
4.80%
4.78%
1.71%
0.78%
1.41%
1.59%
2.70%
1.04%
1.84%
2.19%
0.09%
0.33%
0.69%
0.57%
1.61%
1.51%
2.01%
2.16%
2.25%
1.17%
1.62%
1.73%
1.14%
1.61%
1.91%
1.97%
2.61%
1.85%
3.08%
3.38%
0.04% -0.18%
0.13%
1.66%
0.08%
1.15%
1.27%
2.00%
1.11%
1.32%
1.17%
1.88%
3.50%
3.28%
3.09%
3.51%
2.30%
1.93%
1.79%
2.58%
3.17%
3.53%
3.16%
3.13%
1.29%
0.98%
1.64%
1.34%
-0.79% -0.31%
0.04%
0.40%

Empolyment situation (000) SA

2016
2017
158,821 160,251
Civilian Labor Force Level, SAAR
6,804
5,384 Total Unemployment
4.28%
3.36%
Unemployment rate
152,017 154,867
Total Employment
6,808
6,578 Agriculture and self employee
145,209 148,289 Nonfarm Payrolls
877
868
Mining and logging
6,727
7,023
Construction
12,577
12,771
Manufacturing
8,021
8,188
Durable goods
4,556
4,583
Nondurable goods
27,508
28,069
Trade, transportation, and utilities
6,027
6,127
Wholesale trade
15,965
16,264
Retail trade
4,946
5,099
Transportation and warehousing
570
579
Utilities
2,850
2,905
Information
8,274
8,420
Financial activities
20,437
21,107
Professional and business services
22,576
23,124
Education and health services
15,632
16,095
Leisure and hospitality
5,722
5,795
Other services
22,029
22,112
Government
Empolyment situation YoY, SA
2016
2017
0.91%
0.90%
Civilian Labor Force Level, SAAR
-17.20% -20.87% Total Unemployment
-0.94% -0.92%
Unemployment rate
1.91%
1.87%
Total Employment
-3.34% -3.38% Agriculture and self employee
2.17%
2.12% Nonfarm Payrolls
-1.10% -1.05%
Mining and logging
4.60%
4.40%
Construction
1.57%
1.54%
Manufacturing
2.13%
2.08%
Durable goods
0.61%
0.59%
Nondurable goods
2.09%
2.04%
Trade, transportation, and utilities
1.68%
1.65%
Wholesale trade
1.91%
1.88%
Retail trade
3.22%
3.10%
Transportation and warehousing
1.52%
1.46%
Utilities
1.96%
1.93%
Information
1.80%
1.77%
Financial activities
3.40%
3.28%
Professional and business services
2.49%
2.43%
Education and health services
3.05%
2.96%
Leisure and hospitality
1.31%
1.28%
Other services
0.38%
0.38%
Government

Note: Following previous projections

2014 / 2015 Previous Outlook (June 2014)
Labor Force data, SA
2012
2013
2014
2015
112,179.7 114,504.5 116,839.0 119,196.4 Total private
847.5
867.7
906.5
945.5 Mining and logging
5,645.2
5,829.3
6,009.2
6,192.1 Construction
11,926.7
12,004.5
12,093.5
12,182.1 Manufacturing
7,469.8
7,542.4
7,627.8
7,714.7
Durable goods
4,456.9
4,462.1
4,465.7
4,467.4
Nondurable goods
25,471.2
25,863.8
26,390.5
26,919.9 Trade, transportation, and utilities
5,667.0
5,747.8
5,866.8
5,985.4
Wholesale trade
14,836.1
15,071.8
15,378.1
15,686.3
Retail trade
4,415.2
4,492.3
4,594.8
4,698.4
Transportation and warehousing
552.9
552.0
550.9
549.8
Utilities
2,676.0
2,684.8
2,657.0
2,630.5 Information
7,782.7
7,879.3
7,938.6
7,998.6 Financial activities
17,933.2
18,565.6
19,230.4
19,900.4 Professional and business services
20,696.2
21,100.3
21,452.4
21,806.2 Education and health services
13,771.6
14,244.6
14,655.4
15,074.0 Leisure and hospitality
5,429.6
5,464.7
5,505.5
5,547.2 Other services
21,918.3
21,858.3
21,849.4
21,837.2 Government
134,098.1 136,362.8 138,688.5 141,033.6 Total nonfarm
8,367.6
7,567.1
7,755.7
7,940.5 Other in labor force
12,495.6
11,448.9
9,733.1
8,004.3 Unemployed
154,961.5 155,378.8 156,177.0 156,978.3 Total Civilian Labor Force
8.064%
7.368%
6.232%
5.099%
Unemployment rate
Latest annual data prior to the date of projection
Own estimate

Outlook less Previous (June 2014)

2012
2013
2014
2015
0.9
40.8
327.3
983.6
0.1
-4.8
-10.8
-58.9
0.0
27.5
128.9
239.4
-0.8
13.8
94.7
200.3
-0.9
4.0
57.7
139.2
0.1
9.8
36.9
61.0
-0.2
-7.3
-14.4
26.5
0.3 -14.3
-40.3
-57.9
-0.2
2.8
-16.0
-21.0
-0.2
4.4
40.2
93.5
-0.1
-0.2
1.7
12.0
-0.8
21.3
83.5
164.7
-0.2
6.2
39.4
129.3
0.6 -44.0 -135.7 -135.1
0.4
-4.7
20.3
221.0
1.6
14.3
53.9
95.8
0.2
18.4
67.7
100.6
-0.8
-9.8
7.5
108.2
0.1
31.1
334.8 1,091.8
1.4 -28.9 -476.2 -897.1
2.7
6.0 -136.7
212.6
3.9
8.2 -277.8
407.3
0.002% 0.003% -0.077% 0.122%

2015 / 2017 Outlook

2012
2013
2014
2015
112,180.6 114,545.3 117,166.4 120,180.0
847.6
862.9
895.7
886.6
5,645.2
5,856.8
6,138.1
6,431.5
11,925.8
12,018.3
12,188.2
12,382.3
7,468.8
7,546.4
7,685.6
7,853.9
4,457.0
4,471.9
4,502.6
4,528.4
25,471.0
25,856.5
26,376.1
26,946.4
5,667.3
5,733.5
5,826.4
5,927.5
14,835.9
15,074.5
15,362.1
15,665.2
4,414.9
4,496.6
4,635.1
4,791.9
552.8
551.8
552.6
561.7
2,675.3
2,706.1
2,740.4
2,795.2
7,782.5
7,885.5
7,978.0
8,127.9
17,933.8
18,521.6
19,094.8
19,765.3
20,696.6
21,095.6
21,472.7
22,027.2
13,773.2
14,258.9
14,709.3
15,169.8
5,429.8
5,483.1
5,573.2
5,647.8
21,917.6
21,848.6
21,856.9
21,945.4
134,098.2 136,393.9 139,023.3 142,125.4
8,369.0
7,538.2
7,279.5
7,043.3
12,498.3
11,454.9
9,596.3
8,216.9
154,965.4 155,387.0 155,899.2 157,385.6
8.065%
7.372%
6.155%
5.221%

Quarterly data
In the 4th quarter of 2014 unemployment rates below 6% consolidated.
For the 4 quarter of 2015 it is estimated that the unemployment rate will be less than 5% of the civilian labor force.
With the exception of self-employment and employment in mining (especially in supporting activities), all other industries is estimated to continue to
generate new employment during 2015 and beyond.
th

Empolyment situation (000) SA

Civilian Labor Force Level, SAAR
Total Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Total Employment
Agriculture and self employee
Nonfarm Payrolls
Mining and logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
Empolyment situation YoY, SA
Civilian Labor Force Level, SAAR
Total Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Total Employment
Agriculture and self employee
Nonfarm Payrolls
Mining and logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
Latest data
Own estimate

2014
I
155,785
10,350
6.64%
145,434
7,592
137,842
878
6,033
12,118
7,613
4,505
26,162
5,787
15,253
4,572
550
2,722
7,927
18,830
21,281
14,528
5,542
21,820
I
0.24%
-14.03%
-1.10%
1.43%
-3.12%
1.70%
2.25%
4.27%
1.02%
1.16%
0.79%
1.84%
1.24%
2.04%
2.18%
-0.30%
1.24%
1.00%
2.93%
1.51%
3.20%
1.59%
-0.27%

2015

II
III
155,583 155,971
9,637
9,484
6.19%
6.08%
145,946 146,486
7,309
7,105
138,638 139,381
889
904
6,113
6,171
12,158
12,203
7,659
7,707
4,499
4,496
26,306
26,436
5,817
5,839
15,328
15,390
4,611
4,653
551
554
2,729
2,750
7,954
7,996
19,012
19,178
21,405
21,540
14,658
14,754
5,569
5,580
21,846
21,869
2014
II
III
0.01%
0.26%
-17.73% -15.94%
-1.34%
-1.17%
1.45%
1.52%
-5.85%
-7.09%
1.87%
2.01%
3.41%
4.71%
4.78%
5.10%
1.26%
1.65%
1.61%
2.23%
0.67%
0.67%
2.12%
2.07%
1.68%
1.68%
2.14%
1.80%
2.93%
3.65%
-0.41%
0.47%
0.87%
1.63%
0.94%
1.19%
2.88%
3.12%
1.63%
1.88%
3.22%
3.01%
1.83%
1.60%
0.01%
0.15%

IV
156,258
8,914
5.70%
147,344
7,113
140,232
912
6,236
12,273
7,763
4,510
26,600
5,863
15,477
4,704
556
2,761
8,035
19,359
21,665
14,897
5,602
21,892

I
157,029
8,753
5.57%
148,276
7,266
141,010
892
6,333
12,322
7,800
4,522
26,746
5,897
15,559
4,732
559
2,777
8,078
19,505
21,815
15,015
5,623
21,905

IV
0.82%
-17.34%
-1.25%
2.18%
2.98%
2.14%
4.79%
5.05%
1.72%
2.37%
0.61%
2.01%
1.88%
1.65%
3.54%
0.77%
1.33%
1.56%
3.44%
2.11%
3.20%
1.55%
0.27%

I
0.80%
-15.43%
-1.07%
1.95%
-4.29%
2.30%
1.63%
4.96%
1.68%
2.46%
0.37%
2.23%
1.90%
2.00%
3.50%
1.63%
2.01%
1.90%
3.58%
2.51%
3.35%
1.46%
0.39%

II
III
157,303 157,512
8,508
8,092
5.41%
5.14%
148,795 149,420
7,119
6,937
141,677 142,483
859
892
6,390
6,465
12,342
12,401
7,816
7,873
4,526
4,528
26,863
27,014
5,909
5,941
15,630
15,698
4,763
4,813
561
562
2,785
2,801
8,109
8,142
19,675
19,851
21,982
22,097
15,099
15,206
5,636
5,656
21,935
21,958
2015
II
III
1.11%
0.99%
-11.72% -14.68%
-0.79%
-0.94%
1.95%
2.00%
-2.60%
-2.36%
2.19%
2.23%
-3.30%
-1.33%
4.54%
4.76%
1.52%
1.62%
2.05%
2.15%
0.61%
0.70%
2.12%
2.19%
1.59%
1.74%
1.97%
2.00%
3.28%
3.45%
1.86%
1.55%
2.08%
1.85%
1.95%
1.83%
3.49%
3.51%
2.70%
2.58%
3.01%
3.07%
1.21%
1.36%
0.41%
0.41%

IV
157,698
7,515
4.77%
150,183
6,851
143,332
903
6,538
12,464
7,927
4,537
27,162
5,964
15,774
4,860
565
2,817
8,183
20,031
22,215
15,359
5,676
21,983
IV
0.92%
-15.70%
-0.94%
1.93%
-3.67%
2.21%
-1.02%
4.85%
1.56%
2.11%
0.61%
2.11%
1.71%
1.92%
3.30%
1.60%
2.05%
1.84%
3.47%
2.54%
3.10%
1.33%
0.42%

2016
I
158,432
7,330
4.63%
151,101
6,906
144,195
890
6,649
12,524
7,972
4,552
27,321
5,996
15,858
4,900
568
2,832
8,226
20,201
22,360
15,500
5,698
21,994
2016
I
0.89%
-16.25%
-0.95%
1.91%
-4.96%
2.26%
-0.22%
5.00%
1.64%
2.21%
0.66%
2.15%
1.69%
1.92%
3.54%
1.63%
1.98%
1.83%
3.57%
2.50%
3.23%
1.34%
0.40%

Monthly data
Total non-farm payroll employees rose by 3.124 million in May 2015 from May 2014 (the sixth consecutive month of growth above the mark of 3
million new jobs a year), or 280,000 new jobs in May from April 2015 seasonally adjusted figures.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.5% order in May 2015. The level of unemployed people decreased from 9.079 million in May
2014 to 8.37 million in May 2015, gross data.
Population data (000)
Total population (000)
Noninstitutional population (%)
Civilian noninstitutional population (+16 y)
Not in Labor force (+16 y), NSA
Civilian Labor Force Level, NSA
Participation rate, NSA
Labor force & Employment situation (000)
Employment Level
Total nonfarm
Farmers and self-employed
Unemployment Level (+16 yr)
NSA
Civilian Labor Force Level
Memo:
Unemployment rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Y/Y change

Jan-15
320,450
77.9%
249,723
93,673
156,050
62.5%

Feb-15
320,621
77.9%
249,899
93,686
156,213
62.5%

Mar-15
320,799
78.0%
250,080
93,763
156,317
62.5%

Apr-15
320,972
78.0%
250,266
93,713
156,553
62.6%

May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

321,151 321,344 321,554 321,782 322,018
78.0%
250,455
92,736
157,719
63.0%

Jan-15
146,552
138,671
7,881
9,498
156,050

Feb-15
147,118
139,519
7,599
9,095
156,213

Mar-15
147,635
140,298
7,338
8,682
156,317

Apr-15
148,587
141,450
7,137
7,966
156,553

May-15
149,349
142,420
6,929
8,370
157,719

Jun-15
149,900
142,921
6,979
8,661
158,560

Jul-15
150,135
141,874
8,261
8,771
158,906

Aug-15
149,613
142,308
7,305
8,308
157,922

Sep-15
149,896
142,996
6,900
7,646
157,542

6.09%
3,156

5.82%
3,262

5.55%
3,084

5.09%
3,074

5.31%
3,124

5.46%
3,031

5.52%
3,033

5.26%
3,076

4.85%
3,077

Employment Level
Total nonfarm
Farmers and self-employed
Unemployment Level (+16 yr)
Civilian Labor Force Level
Memo:
Unemployment rate
Nonfarm Payrolls M/M change

148,201 148,297 148,331 148,523 148,795 149,068 149,282 149,414 149,563

140,793 141,059 141,178 141,399 141,679 141,952 142,231 142,480 142,738
7,408
7,238
7,153
7,124
7,116
7,116
7,051
6,934
6,825
8,979
8,705
8,575
8,549
8,674
8,300
8,240
8,142
7,894
157,180 157,002 156,906 157,072 157,469 157,368 157,523 157,556 157,458

Personal Consumption Expenditure

PCE Bn of chained (2009) dollars; SAAR
per Civilian labor force ($)
MoM
YoY
per Employee ($)
MoM
YoY
Latest Update
Estimate

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

11,158.6 11,153.7 11,196.5 11,191.3 11,183.0 11,192.0 11,212.0 11,263.0 11,287.0
70,992 71,042 71,358 71,249 71,017 71,120 71,177 71,486 71,683
-0.54%
0.07%
0.45% -0.15% -0.33%
0.14%
0.08%
0.43%
0.28%
2.02%
1.76%
1.78%
1.67%
1.12%
1.39%
0.79%
0.96%
1.11%
75,294 75,212 75,483 75,351 75,157 75,080 75,106 75,381 75,466
-0.39% -0.11%
0.36% -0.18% -0.26% -0.10%
0.03%
0.37%
0.11%
0.98%
0.57%
0.95%
0.78%
0.52%
0.42% -0.17%
0.15%
0.32%

SA

5.71%
201

5.54%
266

5.47%
120

5.44%
221

5.51%
280

5.27%
273

5.23%
279

5.17%
249

5.01%
258