INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Jon Morrison
1 (403) 216-3400

Adam Gill, CFA

1 (403) 216-3405

Arthur Grayfer, CFA

1 (403) 216-3409

Jeremy Kaliel
1 (403) 260-8657

Jon.Morrison@cibc.com

Adam.Gill@cibc.com

Arthur.Grayfer@cibc.com

Jeremy.Kaliel@cibc.com

Dave Popowich
1 (403) 216-3401

Serhiy Petrenko
1 (403) 221-5047

Shahzaib Merwat
1 (403) 216-8518

Ashley Connolly
1 (403) 260-8668

Dave.Popowich@cibc.com

Serhiy.Petrenko@cibc.com

Shahzaib.Merwat@cibc.com

Ashley.Connolly@cibc.com

Nick Corcoran
1 (403) 260-8678

Scott Reid
1 (403) 216-3402

Dan Forget
1 (403) 216-3021

Nick.Corcoran@cibc.com

Scott.Reid@cibc.com

Dan.Forget@cibc.com

INDUSTRY UPDATE

Energy

April 27, 2015

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly

Oil & Gas - Dividend

Corporations
Sector Weighting:

MARKET WEIGHT

Oil & Gas - Intermediate &

Junior Producers
Sector Weighting:

MARKET WEIGHT

Oil & Gas - International

E&P
Sector Weighting:

MARKET WEIGHT

Oil & Gas - Large Cap

Sector Weighting:

MARKET WEIGHT

Oilfield Services &

Equipment
Sector Weighting:

All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.

OVERWEIGHT

15-135584 2015

CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important required disclosures, including potential conflicts of
interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, or at the end of each
section hereof, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com

CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 1. North American Energy Equity Indices

TSX vs. S&P 500

1.50

S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Energy

TSX vs. TSX Capped Energy

1.50

TSX Composite
S&P 500

1.40

1.40

1.50

TSX Composite
TSX Capped Energy

S&P 500
S&P 500 Energy

1.40

1.30
1.30

1.30

1.20

1.20

1.10

1.20

1.00

1.10

1.10

0.90
1.00

0.80

Energy Indices - U.S.

1.80

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Note: the S&P 500 Drillers index includes land and offshore drillers.
Source of front cover image: CIBC World Markets Inc.

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

0.40

May-14

0.40

Mar-14

0.60

Jan-14

0.60

Nov-13

0.80

Sep-13

0.80

Jul-13

1.00

May-13

1.00

Mar-13

1.20

Jan-13

1.20

Sep-13

1.40

Mar-13

1.40

1.60

Jan-13

1.60

S&P 500 E&P

S&P 500 Integrated
S&P 500 Equipment & Services
S&P 500 Drillers

Jul-13

TSX E&P TR
TSX Integrated TR
TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR
TSX Drillers TR

May-13

1.80

Apr-15

Jan-15

Apr-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

May-14

Energy Indices - Canada

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

0.90

Jan-13

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

0.70

Jan-13

0.90

Apr-13

1.00

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 2. Commodities and ETFs Funds Flow

WTI vs Brent

Henry Hub vs AECO

$130

WTI

$120

$7.00

Brent

Henry Hub

$15+

$6.00

$110
$100

$5.00

$90

US$/MMBtu

US$/Bbl

AECO

$80
$70

$4.00
$3.00

$60
$50

$2.00

$40

$140
Alberta Condensate
Alberta Propane

Financial

Texas Condensate
Texas Propane

Materials

$80

Mar-15

Jan-15

$123
-$4

Communications Sector

$60

Real Estate

-$15
-$286

Consumer Discretionary

$40

$1

Consumer Staples

-$23

Utilities

$20

Industrials

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

$0

May-13

Nov-14

-$141

Thematic

Mar-13

Sep-14

$57

Technology

Jan-13

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

-$137

Energy

$100

US$/Bbl

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Funds Flow by Sector for US Equity ETFs for the Week Ending April 24, 2015

Natural Gas Liquids

$120

Jan-13

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

$1.00

Jan-13

$30

-$122
-$194

Health Care

-500

$126

0
US$ (Millions)

500

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 3. CIBC Energy Indices

TSX E&P vs. Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index

2.50

TSX E&P vs. Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

TSX E&P TR
Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index

2.30

TSX E&P TR

1.90

2.10

Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

1.70

1.90

1.50

1.70
1.30

1.50
1.30

1.10

1.10

0.90

0.90

0.70

0.70

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

Nov-13

Sep-13

May-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Mar-13

Mar-15

0.70

Jan-15

0.70

Nov-14

0.80

Sep-14

0.80

Jul-14

0.90

May-14

0.90

Mar-14

1.00

Jan-14

1.00

Nov-13

1.10

Sep-13

1.10

Jul-13

1.20

May-13

1.20

Mar-13

1.30

Jan-13

TSX E&P TR
CIBC Integrated E&Ps TR Index

1.40

1.30

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Jan-14

1.50

TSX E&P TR
CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TR Index

1.40

Mar-13

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Integrated E&Ps

Jan-13

1.50

May-13

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps

Jan-13

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

0.50

Jan-13

0.50

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 4. CIBC Energy Indices

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Royalty Corps

1.60

TSX E&P vs. International E&Ps

1.60

TSX E&P TR
CIBC Royalty Corps TR Index

1.50

TSX E&P TR
CIBC International E&Ps TR Index

1.50

1.40

1.40

1.30

1.30

1.20

1.20

1.10

1.10

1.00

1.00

0.90

0.90

0.80

0.80

0.70

0.70

0.60

PSK IPO

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jul-14

TSX O&G-Equipment & Services, -Drillers vs. CIBC Oilfield Services

Jan-13

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

0.50

Jan-13

0.50

0.60

STENRE Index vs. OSX Index vs. Oilfield Services Cos

1.80

1.70
TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR
TSX Drillers TR
CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage

1.70
1.60

STENRE Index
OSX Index
CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage

1.60
1.50

1.50

1.40

1.40
1.30

1.30

1.20

1.20

1.10

1.10

1.00

1.00

0.90

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

0.70

May-13

0.60

Mar-13

0.80

Jan-13

0.70

Jan-13

0.90

0.80

North American Oil & Gas Economic Calendar

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday
1

April 2015

Friday
2

Saturday
3

Legend
4
Earnings Release
Ticker

Before Market Open

Ticker

After Market Close

Good Friday

Land Sale:
SK

12

10

11

Land Sale:
AB

13

14

15

16

17

18

Futures Contract Expiries

CL

WTI 1-Month

CO

Brent 1-Month

NG

HH 1-Month

WCS

WCS 1-Month

Canadian Crown Land Sales

AB, BC, MB, SK
Holiday/Market Closed
Canadian Holiday

19

20

21

CO

22

WCS

23

NG

24

US Holiday

25

Q1 Earnings:
MTL

May
Su M Tu W Th

26

27
Q1 Earnings:
PD
PSK

CL

Land Sale:
BC

28

29
Q1 Earnings:
IMO
CVE
SU
ARX
TOU

30
Q1 Earnings:
PWT
COS
IMO

Land Sale:
AB

Sa

7
14
21
28

1
8
15
22
29

2
9
16
23
30

Su M Tu W Th

Sa

5
12
19
26

6
13
20
27

3
10
17
24
31

5
12
19
26

6
13
20
27

June

7
14
21
28

Note: All times in Mountain Time (MT). Excludes equities not under CIBCs Oil & Gas coverage universe. Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

4
11
18
25

1
8
15
22
29

2
9
16
23
30

3
10
17
24

4
11
18
25

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 5. Calendar

Low

Short Short
Mkt.
Cap. Net Debt
EV
Interest Interest
($MM) ($MM) ($MM)
(MM)
Ratio

% of
Float

W/W

Y/Y

52-Week

Ticker

Price

Analyst

Rating

Returns %
Price
Target1

Target/P
rice

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$23.34

Grayfer

$26.00

SP

11.4%

4.6%

16.0%

-0.4%

1.2%

12.8%

-3.1%

-1.4%

-25.4%

$34.79

$18.72

$19,246

$3,304

$22,550

12.50

2.29

1.5%

-12.1%

-12.1%

Husky Energy
Imperial Oil
Suncor Energy
Average

HSE
IMO
SU

$27.86
$54.22
$40.22

Grayfer
Grayfer
Grayfer

$31.00
$60.00
$49.00

SP
SP
SO

11.3%
10.7%
21.8%
13.8%

4.3%
1.0%
2.8%
3.0%

15.6%
11.6%
24.6%
16.9%

0.0%
-1.7%
0.3%
-0.4%

1.2%
-0.5%
0.2%
0.5%

8.8%
7.5%
9.4%
9.6%

3.6%
14.8%
8.5%
5.9%

2.5%
8.6%
9.8%
4.9%

-18.9%
3.1%
0.9%
-10.1%

$37.28
$57.96
$47.18

$21.39
$44.08
$30.89

$27,406
$45,957
$57,768

$4,025
$6,676
$7,834

$31,431
$52,633
$65,602

22.96
4.10
10.79
12.59

12.60
3.54
1.42
4.96

7.7%
1.6%
0.7%
2.9%

-0.5%
0.2%
-0.7%
-3.3%

-0.5%
0.2%
-0.7%
-3.3%

CNQ
COS
ECA (US)
TLM (US)
TOU

$40.95
$12.88
$14.00
$7.89
$41.79

Grayfer
Grayfer
Grayfer
Grayfer
Grayfer

$50.00
$11.00
$15.00
$8.00
$53.00

SO
SU
SP
SP
SO

22.1%
-14.6%
7.1%
1.4%
26.8%
8.6%

2.2%
1.6%
2.0%
3.4%
0.0%
3.2%

24.3%
-13.0%
9.1%
4.8%
26.8%
10.4%

0.2%
-0.4%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.1%

-0.7%
-0.6%
7.3%
0.5%
-1.4%
1.0%

5.9%
30.9%
28.1%
4.5%
8.4%
15.6%

13.3%
63.1%
5.3%
6.0%
10.4%
19.6%

14.7%
24.2%
1.6%
2.2%
8.0%
10.1%

-6.9%
-43.6%
-38.0%
-22.8%
-23.9%
-27.1%

$49.57
$24.68
$24.83
$11.22
$59.25

$31.00
$6.01
$10.53
$3.46
$32.80

$44,711
$6,242
$11,773
$8,143
$8,631

$13,977
$1,856
$5,285
$4,578
$1,346

$58,688
$8,098
$17,058
$12,720
$9,977

7.82
21.84
15.74
23.29
7.23
15.19

1.65
3.27
2.17
2.36
11.45
4.18

0.7%
4.8%
1.9%
2.4%
4.4%
2.8%

-7.3%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
-1.2%

-7.3%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
-1.2%

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
JOY
LTS
LRE
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGL
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

$25.10
$23.75
$7.95
$36.83
$16.12
$32.10
$15.17
$17.82
$5.45
$1.26
$0.91
$9.49
$4.18
$2.95
$35.56
$31.68
$0.36
$3.75
$10.64
$8.98
$0.81
$58.75
$15.04

Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Gill
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Kaliel
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel

$30.00
$25.00
$10.50
$45.00
$17.50
$37.00
$15.00
R
$5.50
$1.15
$1.00
$14.00
$4.50
$3.00
$42.00
$37.00
$0.25
$4.00
$11.50
$11.00
$1.00
$69.00
$18.50

SO
SO
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
R
SP
SU
SP
SO
SP
SP
SO
SO
SU
SP
SO
SO-S
SP
SO
SO

20%
5%
32%
22%
9%
15%
-1%
R
1%
-9%
10%
48%
8%
2%
18%
17%
-30%
7%
8%
22%
23%
17%
23%

4.8%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
5.2%
8.6%
4.7%
R
5.4%
0.0%
13.5%
10.1%
6.2%
1.4%
3.7%
3.4%
0.0%
8.0%
5.1%
0.0%
14.8%
4.4%
5.0%

24%
10%
37%
27%
14%
24%
4%
R
6%
-9%
23%
58%
14%
3%
22%
20%
-30%
15%
13%
22%
38%
22%
28%

0.4%
0.7%
3.2%
-2.5%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-2.0%
-0.6%
-2.2%
1.6%
-2.2%
-0.6%
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.6%
-1.7%
4.4%
2.2%
-0.5%
1.6%
2.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%

0.4%
2.9%
-0.6%
-6.5%
0.4%
-0.9%
-2.7%
-1.7%
-0.5%
-6.0%
-4.2%
5.4%
-0.2%
-0.7%
-4.1%
-4.3%
4.4%
-0.8%
-2.3%
4.1%
5.2%
0.4%
-1.2%

15.7%
20.4%
23.3%
8.8%
9.2%
11.6%
19.2%
-1.3%
7.9%
27.3%
26.4%
27.2%
10.5%
41.1%
4.7%
6.4%
12.7%
21.0%
8.1%
16.2%
3.8%
9.1%
4.2%

12.0%
23.8%
26.2%
-7.5%
22.9%
7.8%
34.9%
3.4%
4.5%
46.5%
-26.5%
21.2%
25.6%
56.0%
7.5%
25.5%
22.4%
49.7%
36.1%
39.9%
20.2%
8.4%
33.8%

1.1%
24.8%
10.7%
-9.8%
21.2%
22.1%
38.2%
-5.4%
2.0%
5.9%
-38.3%
23.8%
17.4%
22.0%
7.3%
6.1%
7.6%
4.6%
40.3%
13.5%
2.6%
4.7%
33.4%

-19.5%
-44.9%
-51.4%
-31.0%
10.5%
-22.3%
-33.2%
-23.2%
na
-79.8%
-82.7%
na
-34.8%
-67.6%
-7.5%
na
-79.2%
-42.4%
-17.8%
-70.6%
-62.3%
-14.7%
11.6%

$33.68
$49.88
$17.73
$65.99
$20.96
$48.68
$27.05
R
$12.25
$9.09
$6.09
$19.00
$7.78
$11.00
$41.95
$42.60
$1.89
$8.82
$16.33
$31.64
$2.50
$78.24
$18.70

$20.75
$14.56
$5.62
$32.87
$11.58
$21.20
$9.02
R
$3.69
$0.64
$0.66
$6.86
$2.77
$1.67
$29.67
$23.06
$0.26
$2.23
$6.48
$5.27
$0.65
$44.05
$9.75

$8,465
$4,858
$1,718
$1,185
$918
$14,333
$3,121
R
$243
$249
$176
$981
$2,230
$1,467
$5,644
$4,730
$45
$825
$1,174
$1,130
$285
$6,304
$4,378

$883
$1,666
$1,155
$380
$75
$3,458
$1,165
R
$107
$1,625
$740
$399
$2,123
$2,048
$852
-$69
$194
$520
$262
$751
$353
$1,289
$867

$9,348
$6,524
$2,873
$1,565
$992
$17,791
$4,286
R
$349
$1,873
$916
$1,380
$4,353
$3,515
$6,496
$4,661
$239
$1,345
$1,436
$1,881
$638
$7,593
$5,244

11.81
6.42
4.26
0.48
0.77
14.89
7.02
R
0.01
4.71
6.07
0.99
13.36
16.02
1.35
0.53
4.05
5.60
0.98
2.57
0.85
0.67
7.21

7.59
1.88
1.89
1.93
1.37
5.36
4.31
R
0.35
1.77
2.75
4.44
5.54
3.24
1.72
0.47
34.53
1.57
0.57
1.94
0.13
0.84
1.57

3.7%
3.2%
2.2%
1.7%
1.5%
3.3%
3.4%
R
0.0%
2.5%
3.8%
3.5%
2.5%
3.4%
0.9%
0.4%
3.3%
2.6%
0.9%
4.0%
0.2%
0.7%
2.8%

4%
-51%
-2%
-13%
-2%
24%
4%
R
0%
-13%
1%
-3%
-19%
6%
72%
1%
0%
7%
8%
-9%
4%
62%
73%

4%
-51%
-2%
-13%
-2%
24%
4%
R
na
-13%
1%
na
-19%
6%
72%
na
0%
7%
8%
-9%
4%
62%
73%

Peer Group Average

12%

5.4%

18%

0.1%

-0.6%

14.5%

21.5%

11.1%

-38.1%

5.03

3.90

2.3%

7%

8%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average

Royalty Group Average4

12%

5.5%

17%

0.2%

-0.4%

15.6%

22.2%

12.1%

-38.9%

5.24

4.06

2.4%

7%

8%

17%

3.4%

20%

-1.1%

-3.0%

2.6%

14.4%

0.3%

-23.2%

0.53

0.47

0.4%

1%

na

Company

Div.
Yield

Total

D/D

W/W

M/M

3-Mo

YTD

1-Year 1-Year Chart

High

Integrated

Large Cap
Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Oil Sands
Encana
Talisman Energy
Tourmaline Oil
Average

Dividend-Paying
ARC Resources
Baytex Energy
Bonavista Energy
Bonterra Energy
Cardinal Energy
Crescent Point Energy
Enerplus
Freehold Royalties
Journey Energy
Lightstream Resources
Long Run Exploration
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth Energy
Penn West Petroleum
Peyto Exploration
PrairieSky Royalty
Spyglass Resources
Surge Energy
TORC Oil & Gas
Trilogy Energy
Twin Butte Energy
Vermilion Energy
Whitecap Resources

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 6. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps

Low

High

Short Short
Mkt.
Cap. Net Debt
EV
Interest Interest
($MM) ($MM) ($MM)
(MM)
Ratio

-63.6%
-34.9%
-68.2%
-59.0%
-36.6%
-34.7%
-69.7%
-24.8%
-42.5%
-36.3%
-43.1%
-4.7%
-57.6%
na
-44.3%

$11.65
$14.97
$3.21
$12.74
$12.18
$15.61
$10.03
R
$14.75
$66.37
$2.37
$11.25
$10.07
$24.70

$2.38
$5.99
$0.79
$4.66
$4.03
$5.79
$1.17
R
$5.68
$21.72
$0.87
$5.58
$2.75
$14.25

$731
$1,236
$203
$724
$662
$1,412
$529
R
$686
$3,851
$148
$1,780
$425
$5,060

$695
$614
$82
$240
$181
$191
$842
R
$22
$675
$94
$183
$152
$480

$1,426
$1,850
$285
$964
$843
$1,603
$1,371
R
$708
$4,526
$242
$1,963
$577
$5,540

14.39
3.34
1.56
13.76
2.15
3.94
14.74
R
1.00
3.84
3.28
0.58
1.60
4.38
5.35

10.2%
48.4%
-1.6%
-46.0%
-14.3%
22.4%
14.2%
4.8%

-39.9%
-54.7%
-45.7%
-77.3%
-64.2%
-16.7%
-31.9%
-47.2%

$7.45
$8.77
$8.69
$23.86
$0.44
R
$9.01

$2.31
$1.40
$2.58
$2.54
$0.11
R
$3.23

$932
$391
$1,256
$1,215
$105
R
$407

-$103
$188
-$240
$4,823
-$18
R
-$230

$829
$579
$1,017
$6,039
$86
R
$177

25.2%
0.1%
-5.9%
-3.2%
-1.1%
-0.4%
-4.3%
19.5%
-37.5%
-2.6%
12.5%
-12.4%
-0.4%
16.0%
0.4%

-53.3%
-45.9%
-41.9%
-8.9%
-39.5%
-24.9%
-30.5%
-37.6%
-74.6%
-14.5%
-36.3%
-67.3%
-56.2%
-35.0%
-40.5%

$35.95
$22.57
$20.05
$21.50
$17.74
$31.34
$35.51
$15.65
$9.31
$28.05
$24.00
$18.19
$12.89
$11.70

$9.65
$7.30
$5.60
$14.36
$8.17
$18.11
$16.79
$5.70
$1.51
$12.79
$12.10
$3.03
$3.82
$4.88

$642
$941
$558
$1,241
$1,523
$1,917
$1,720
$2,448
$187
$1,998
$453
$728
$692
$516

$176
$658
$30
$347
$732
$380
-$145
$1,361
$342
$393
$64
$695
$457
$203

$818
$1,599
$588
$1,588
$2,256
$2,297
$1,575
$3,808
$529
$2,390
$517
$1,423
$1,149
$718

Company

Ticker

Price

Analyst

Rating

Returns %
Price
Target1

Target/P
rice

BXE
BIR
CQE
CR
DTX
KEL
LEG
NVA
PPY
POU
PMT
RRX
RMP
VII

$3.81
$8.12
$0.96
$5.17
$7.44
$8.95
$2.65
$8.39
$6.90
$36.73
$0.99
$9.17
$3.48
$20.65

Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill

$3.65
$8.50
$1.00
$6.00
$8.25
$10.25
$2.75
R
$10.00
$43.00
$1.00
$10.50
$4.00
$23.50

SP
SO
SU
SP
SO
SO
SP
R
SO
SO
SP
SO
SP
SO

-4%
5%
4%
16%
11%
15%
4%
R
45%
17%
1%
15%
15%
14%
12%

BNK
CNE
GTE
PRE
PTA
PXT
TGL

$3.57
$3.63
$4.39
$3.88
$0.12
$9.28
$5.41

Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich

$5.00
$4.75
$5.00
$2.00
$0.10
R
$5.50

SO
SO
SP
SU
SU
R
SP

BDI
CFW
FRC
EFX
ESI
MTL
PSI
PD
SVY
SES
TOT
TCW
TDG
WRG

$15.64
$9.88
$8.14
$15.78
$9.97
$20.92
$20.75
$8.36
$2.08
$16.46
$14.60
$4.88
$5.12
$6.89

Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison

$10.00
$13.00
$10.50
$18.50
$12.25
$19.00
$21.00
$11.50
$2.50
$22.00
$16.00
$6.50
$6.75
$9.00

SU
SO
SO
SP
SP
SU
SU
SO
SP
SO
SP
SP
SO
SO

Div.
Yield

52-Week

Total

D/D

W/W

M/M

Y/Y

YTD

1-Year 1-Year Chart

-------R
-------

-4%
5%
4%
16%
11%
15%
4%
R
45%
17%
1%
15%
15%
14%
12%

-0.5%
-0.4%
-2.0%
2.4%
-1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
-1.3%
0.7%
-0.1%
-2.0%
-0.6%
1.5%
0.3%
-0.1%

-1.0%
1.0%
-4.0%
-6.7%
-0.4%
-1.2%
3.5%
-2.9%
-4.8%
-0.7%
-10.0%
0.3%
-1.1%
8.1%
-2.2%

16.9%
18.2%
4.3%
6.2%
15.7%
21.1%
63.6%
13.2%
13.9%
11.5%
-11.6%
5.1%
14.9%
27.6%
14.8%

22.1%
23.6%
7.9%
-10.9%
38.3%
40.9%
59.6%
27.3%
-8.5%
27.3%
2.1%
21.1%
-16.5%
26.4%
18.0%

-9.9%
3.8%
-9.4%
-12.7%
45.6%
27.9%
22.7%
13.2%
-25.4%
30.6%
-13.2%
25.2%
-24.0%
17.8%
5.7%

40%
31%
14%
-48%
-17%
R
2%
4%

-----R
5%
5%

40%
31%
14%
-48%
-17%
R
6%
4%

-3.8%
0.0%
0.5%
5.4%
-4.0%
-1.3%
-0.9%
-0.6%

1.7%
3.7%
1.6%
1.0%
4.3%
1.9%
3.0%
2.5%

30.3%
26.0%
30.7%
27.6%
-4.0%
14.1%
20.8%
20.8%

25.7%
21.1%
55.7%
2.9%
-20.0%
38.3%
53.8%
25.3%

-36%
32%
29%
17%
23%
-9%
1%
38%
20%
34%
10%
33%
32%
31%
18%

6.1%
5.1%
7.4%
2.2%
4.8%
5.7%
3.3%
3.3%
5.8%
1.5%
1.6%
6.1%
5.9%
2.9%
4.4%

-36%
32%
29%
17%
23%
-9%
1%
38%
20%
34%
10%
33%
32%
31%
18%

0.5%
-1.1%
-2.7%
-2.9%
-4.2%
-0.8%
-5.3%
-0.7%
-1.4%
-0.3%
2.9%
0.4%
-1.0%
-0.4%
-1.2%

-0.6%
-5.5%
-7.8%
-3.7%
-8.0%
-8.2%
-8.4%
-2.8%
-6.3%
-4.9%
0.3%
-2.6%
-4.1%
-4.4%
-4.8%

19.0%
14.5%
24.7%
3.6%
-0.1%
1.9%
3.1%
6.9%
12.4%
3.1%
3.6%
32.2%
23.4%
8.7%
11.2%

58.1%
20.0%
18.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
7.1%
17.4%
27.6%
-3.9%
10.7%
11.8%
-7.8%
13.1%
25.6%
14.1%

% of
Float

W/W

Y/Y

7.40
6.09
3.45
6.91
1.10
4.30
1.64
R
0.96
7.98
10.56
0.30
0.52
4.68
4.27

9.1%
3.1%
1.1%
10.2%
2.9%
3.0%
7.6%
R
1.0%
6.6%
2.9%
0.3%
1.4%
2.8%
4.1%

2%
-2%
-14%
1%
19%
9%
-8%
R
-2%
-3%
25%
-21%
8%
21%
1%

nm
-2%
nm
1%
nm
9%
-8%
R
-2%
-3%
nm
-21%
8%
na
-2%

7.87
0.92
6.95
10.37
0.23
R
2.27
4.77

1.90
1.13
4.63
1.23
0.21
R
4.31
2.23

3.1%
0.8%
2.5%
4.7%
0.0%
R
3.3%
2.4%

4%
-30%
2%
-15%
45%
R
-8%
0%

4%
nm
2%
-15%
45%
R
-8%
5%

0.45
1.90
1.85
0.67
4.01
1.82
0.24
2.61
1.40
1.12
0.59
5.80
3.58
0.40
1.89

1.01
1.68
2.44
4.50
5.04
4.48
0.90
0.70
1.68
1.60
13.50
1.17
2.33
1.47
3.04

1.3%
2.7%
2.9%
0.9%
3.2%
2.0%
0.3%
0.9%
1.6%
0.9%
2.0%
3.9%
2.7%
0.6%
1.8%

-14%
18%
15%
-11%
-8%
-2%
-23%
-6%
-12%
-29%
-4%
71%
26%
3%
2%

-14%
18%
15%
-11%
nmf
-2%
-23%
-6%
nm
-29%
nmf
71%
nm
3%
2%

Junior
Bellatrix Exploration
Birchcliff Energy
Cequence Energy
Crew Energy
DeeThree Exploration
Kelt Exploration
Legacy Oil & Gas
NuVista Energy
Painted Pony Petroleum
Paramount Resources
Perpetual Energy
Raging River Exploration
RMP Energy
Seven Generations Energy
Average

International
Bankers Petroleum
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Pacific Rubiales
Petroamerica Oil
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy
Average

Oilfield Services
Black Diamond Group
Calfrac Well Services
Canyon Services Group
Enerflex
Ensign Energy Services
Mullen Group
Pason Systems
Precision Drilling
Savanna Energy Services
Secure Energy Services
Total Energy Services
Trican Well Service
Trinidad Drilling
Western Energy Services
Average
Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 7. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos

P/CF
Company

P/E

Ticker

Price

2014

2015E

2016E

2014

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$23.34

5.1x

10.8x

8.4x

Husky Energy
Imperial Oil
Suncor Energy

HSE
IMO
SU

$27.86
$54.22
$40.22

5.0x
8.7x
6.5x

7.2x
13.6x
8.8x

5.2x
11.2x
7.5x

6.3x

10.1x

4.7x
5.6x
3.5x
3.8x
9.1x

D/CF

EV/DACF

EV/P+P

EV/Boe/d

NAV %
P/Risked

P/Unrisked

129%

97%

67%

142%
186%
158%

103%
125%
123%

89%
99%
90%

$10.13

154%

112%

86%

$67,487
$76,746
$40,670
$37,678
$54,407

$7.97
$5.52
$3.16
$7.77
$11.66

98%
115%
139%
208%
172%

89%
101%
76%
115%
82%

70%
82%
39%
39%
48%

$57,949

$55,398

$7.21

146%

93%

56%

$76,937
$75,860
$35,471
$121,805
$88,155
$116,283
$44,187
R
$32,826
$58,540
$31,962
$63,896
$58,825
$37,797
$72,994
$260,046
$26,577
$67,242
$111,104
$62,705
$34,038
$136,814
$131,108

$72,746
$71,691
$33,802
$113,418
$83,234
$113,320
$42,862
R
$33,670
$69,381
$34,160
$59,748
$58,825
$37,797
$62,466
$253,824
$29,897
$67,241
$108,944
$67,184
$34,039
$116,817
$116,540

$13.90
$15.12
$6.73
$19.50
$23.07
$22.04
$10.56
R
$7.04
$11.62
$5.95
$8.72
$7.82
$6.27
$12.22
na
$4.42
$12.00
$22.18
$17.88
$10.42
$30.76
$23.92

310%
195%
132%
267%
144%
232%
174%
R
103%
166%
47%
80%
143%
200%
292%
125%
na
109%
172%
266%
75%
120%
163%

90%
100%
75%
85%
128%
83%
111%
R
94%
66%
47%
61%
88%
49%
108%
n.a.
89%
83%
139%
60%
52%
91%
93%

47%
63%
49%
50%
115%
47%
63%
R
70%
25%
18%
51%
63%
15%
65%
n.a.
31%
59%
68%
16%
42%
55%
65%

$13.91

169%

85%

51%

Reserves

P/Core

$83,467

$7.03

$90,610
$121,371
$117,725

$10.48
$14.51
$8.51

$110,212

$103,293

$74,248
$85,639
$36,325
$34,395
$85,156

$68,309
$78,947
$41,966
$37,503
$63,020

7.6x

$63,153

9.6x
7.3x
5.4x
8.3x
7.9x
8.9x
7.1x
R
4.7x
5.8x
4.9x
4.6x
7.0x
4.6x
8.8x
21.3x
11.7x
5.9x
8.9x
9.2x
3.9x
9.0x
6.8x

$83,176
$112,893
$37,212
$118,619
$124,334
$126,355
$41,561
R
$33,105
$46,346
$32,870
$66,598
$59,397
$33,856
$85,064
$249,594
$17,334
$74,426
$125,906
$53,588
$30,026
$153,169
$161,570

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

27.9x

na

42.5x

1.3x

2.1x

2.1x

5.7x

12.6x

9.6x

$78,115

$80,081

13.5x
14.9x
12.8x

43.7x
21.8x
27.9x

16.6x
17.4x
20.1x

0.7x
1.3x
0.9x

1.5x
2.1x
1.8x

1.2x
1.5x
1.6x

5.4x
9.9x
6.7x

8.4x
15.6x
10.0x

6.1x
12.6x
8.6x

$92,290
$169,833
$124,647

$95,836
$143,039
$121,892

8.1x

17.3x

31.1x

24.2x

1.0x

1.9x

1.6x

6.9x

11.6x

9.2x

$116,221

7.7x
18.8x
8.5x
4.6x
9.5x

5.3x
9.2x
4.4x
4.0x
6.1x

11.8x
13.6x
10.4x
na
18.3x

na
na
na
na
na

19.9x
18.4x
19.8x
na
24.7x

1.5x
1.7x
2.4x
2.2x
1.2x

2.7x
6.3x
4.4x
3.7x
1.7x

1.9x
2.7x
2.2x
4.0x
1.7x

6.0x
7.0x
5.0x
5.9x
11.7x

9.6x
17.8x
9.7x
7.1x
10.8x

6.9x
10.8x
5.8x
7.0x
7.4x

5.4x

9.8x

5.8x

13.5x

na

20.7x

1.8x

3.8x

2.5x

7.1x

11.0x

7.1x
4.0x
3.0x
5.4x
7.6x
5.6x
3.6x
R
2.2x
0.4x
0.5x
3.6x
4.4x
1.6x
8.2x
26.0x
0.8x
3.1x
5.4x
3.2x
1.4x
7.7x
7.2x

11.8x
7.3x
4.4x
10.4x
10.6x
7.9x
5.4x
R
4.9x
1.2x
1.2x
6.2x
4.9x
4.9x
9.1x
28.7x
3.8x
5.4x
10.0x
10.9x
1.6x
12.3x
7.6x

8.9x
6.3x
3.8x
6.9x
7.9x
7.7x
5.5x
R
3.4x
1.3x
1.2x
4.6x
4.7x
2.2x
7.6x
21.6x
3.7x
4.0x
8.0x
7.0x
2.0x
8.2x
6.4x

-------R
----------------

-------R
----------------

-------R
----------------

1.1x
2.6x
2.1x
1.0x
0.6x
1.4x
1.6x
R
1.1x
2.8x
2.5x
1.4x
4.2x
2.5x
1.5x
-0.4x
3.3x
2.4x
1.3x
2.1x
1.7x
1.6x
1.6x

1.6x
2.7x
2.9x
3.5x
0.8x
2.1x
2.0x
R
2.5x
7.3x
4.8x
1.7x
4.3x
7.7x
1.8x
-0.3x
16.1x
3.6x
2.5x
6.9x
1.8x
2.6x
1.4x

1.3x
2.2x
2.2x
2.1x
0.5x
2.3x
2.4x
R
1.8x
7.6x
4.8x
0.8x
3.8x
3.2x
1.8x
-0.5x
15.4x
2.6x
2.0x
4.5x
2.3x
1.6x
0.9x

7.9x
6.0x
4.6x
6.2x
10.1x
6.7x
4.8x
R
3.4x
2.7x
2.9x
4.4x
7.5x
3.5x
9.3x
36.0x
3.2x
5.1x
7.3x
4.8x
2.8x
8.8x
8.4x

12.6x
8.7x
6.5x
12.6x
10.8x
9.2x
6.8x
R
6.6x
5.6x
4.9x
6.8x
7.4x
8.6x
10.2x
28.6x
12.0x
7.7x
11.6x
13.0x
3.2x
13.3x
8.4x

Integrated

Average

Large Cap
Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Oil Sands
Encana
Talisman Energy
Tourmaline Oil

CNQ
COS
ECA (US)
TLM (US)
TOU

$40.95
$12.88
$14.00
$7.89
$41.79

Average

Dividend-Paying
ARC Resources
Baytex Energy
Bonavista Energy
Bonterra Energy
Cardinal Energy
Crescent Point Energy
Enerplus
Freehold Royalties
Journey Energy
Lightstream Resources
Long Run Exploration
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth Energy
Penn West Petroleum
Peyto Exploration
PrairieSky Royalty
Spyglass Resources
Surge Energy
TORC Oil & Gas
Trilogy Energy
Twin Butte Energy
Vermilion Energy
Whitecap Resources

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
JOY
LTS
LRE
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGL
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average

Royalty Group Average4

$25.10
$23.75
$7.95
$36.83
$16.12
$32.10
$15.17
$17.82
$5.45
$1.26
$0.91
$9.49
$4.18
$2.95
$35.56
$31.68
$0.36
$3.75
$10.64
$8.98
$0.81
$58.75
$15.04

4.1x

6.7x

5.3x

1.9x

3.8x

3.1x

5.7x

8.9x

7.2x

$77,019

$70,720

$67,990

26.0x

28.7x

21.6x

-0.4x

-0.3x

-0.5x

36.0x

28.6x

21.3x

$249,594

$260,046

$253,824

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

125%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 8. Comparables Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps

P/CF
Company

P/E

D/CF

Ticker

Price

2014

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

BXE
BIR
CQE
CR
DTX
KEL
LEG
NVA
PPY
POU
PMT
RRX
RMP
VII

$3.81
$8.12
$0.96
$5.17
$7.44
$8.95
$2.65
$8.39
$6.90
$36.73
$0.99
$9.17
$3.48
$20.65

2.6x
4.1x
2.9x
3.7x
3.8x
9.6x
1.5x
R
7.1x
28.9x
1.9x
7.7x
2.7x
14.2x

5.7x
7.9x
4.3x
6.9x
5.3x
14.4x
3.7x
R
16.6x
18.6x
11.6x
11.3x
4.7x
12.3x

3.6x
4.6x
3.0x
4.7x
3.9x
9.3x
2.3x
R
7.3x
6.7x
4.6x
7.9x
3.0x
6.3x

-------R
-------

-------R
-------

-------R
-------

7.0x

9.5x

5.2x

3.3x
4.3x
4.1x
0.6x
1.4x
R
3.7x

6.3x
6.2x
6.9x
1.0x
6.9x
R
11.8x

4.5x
4.0x
5.3x
0.7x
9.1x
R
7.0x

2.9x

6.5x

5.1x

2014

2015E

EV/DACF
2016E

2014

2015E

EV/P+P

EV/Boe/d
2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

Reserves

P/Core

NAV %
P/Risked

P/Unrisked

Junior
Bellatrix Exploration
Birchcliff Energy
Cequence Energy
Crew Energy
DeeThree Exploration
Kelt Exploration
Legacy Oil & Gas
NuVista Energy
Painted Pony Petroleum
Paramount Resources
Perpetual Energy
Raging River Exploration
RMP Energy
Seven Generations Energy
Average

2.4x
1.8x
1.0x
1.5x
1.0x
0.9x
2.5x
R
0.0x
11.6x
4.2x
0.6x
0.8x
0.5x

5.6x
4.2x
1.8x
2.6x
1.2x
2.3x
6.2x
R
1.6x
3.5x
8.2x
1.2x
1.5x
2.3x

4.2x
3.1x
2.3x
2.5x
0.9x
2.2x
3.6x
R
2.9x
1.7x
4.1x
0.5x
1.2x
2.1x

4.7x
5.6x
3.4x
5.1x
4.7x
13.0x
3.6x
R
7.6x
22.1x
1.8x
8.5x
3.3x
13.3x

9.1x
10.2x
5.5x
8.4x
6.1x
16.6x
7.4x
R
17.9x
15.0x
6.3x
11.9x
5.9x
11.6x

6.6x
6.7x
4.8x
6.4x
4.7x
10.7x
4.9x
R
9.5x
7.1x
4.6x
8.1x
3.9x
7.1x

$35,967
$52,817
$25,092
$40,567
$73,583
$118,862
$58,696
R
$52,202
$179,064
$9,955
$177,857
$47,150
$167,594

$33,577
$47,935
$25,036
$45,186
$65,090
$81,445
$60,425
R
$47,035
$80,304
$13,308
$145,483
$41,627
$102,957

$36,284
$45,265
$28,178
$38,880
$59,367
$74,138
$59,914
R
$41,883
$66,221
$16,064
$129,806
$37,003
$69,672

$5.70
$3.98
$2.41
$4.37
$16.27
$11.02
$8.90
R
$1.45
$10.32
$2.98
$29.58
$13.76
$7.03

136%
91%
141%
122%
110%
144%
65%
R
81%
141%
480%
156%
147%
111%

94%
91%
88%
92%
87%
100%
61%
R
70%
94%
59%
121%
92%
105%

34%
26%
31%
41%
47%
46%
21%
R
26%
53%
31%
81%
62%
58%

2.2x

3.2x

2.4x

7.4x

10.2x

6.5x

$79,954

$60,724

$54,052

$9.06

148%

89%

43%

-0.4x
1.0x
-0.8x
2.4x
-0.3x
R
-1.3x

-0.5x
3.4x
-1.4x
3.7x
-0.6x
R
-3.8x

-0.3x
2.3x
-1.1x
2.9x
3.4x
R
-2.0x

2.5x
5.1x
2.9x
2.3x
1.1x
R
1.6x

4.3x
6.8x
4.2x
3.0x
3.7x
R
4.3x

3.4x
4.9x
3.4x
2.6x
9.3x
R
3.5x

$39,257
$45,238
$39,373
$37,124
$13,497
R
$14,263

$42,970
$59,838
$40,620
$39,963
$20,368
R
$17,932

$40,457
$48,515
$45,231
$43,476
$50,299
R
$21,032

$3.46
$14.53
$7.23
$13.03
$7.60
R
$4.58

84%
131%
91%
178%
90%
R
78%

80%
78%
70%
48%
74%
R
74%

-----R
--

0.1x

0.1x

0.9x

2.6x

4.4x

4.5x

$31,459

$36,948

$41,502

$8.41

109%

71%

---------------

---------------

International
Bankers Petroleum
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Pacific Rubiales
Petroamerica Oil
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

BNK
CNE
GTE
PRE
PTA
PXT
TGL

$3.57
$3.63
$4.39
$3.88
$0.12
$9.28
$5.41

Average

-----R
--

-----R
--

-----R
--

Oilfield Services
Black Diamond Group
Calfrac Well Services
Canyon Services Group
Enerflex
Ensign Energy Services
Mullen Group
Pason Systems
Precision Drilling
Savanna Energy Services
Secure Energy Services
Total Energy Services
Trican Well Service
Trinidad Drilling
Western Energy Services

EV/EBITDA
BDI
CFW
FRC
EFX
ESI
MTL
PSI
PD
SVY
SES
TOT
TCW
TDG
WRG

$15.64
$9.88
$8.14
$15.78
$9.97
$20.92
$20.75
$8.36
$2.08
$16.46
$14.60
$4.88
$5.12
$6.89

4.9x
3.5x
4.0x
10.0x
3.2x
7.4x
8.3x
3.6x
1.3x
11.0x
4.6x
3.3x
3.3x
3.4x

8.4x
nm
21.5x
7.4x
6.6x
12.6x
18.1x
6.0x
3.0x
13.2x
9.6x
nm
8.4x
9.0x

8.9x
5.5x
5.8x
6.9x
4.8x
9.5x
12.9x
4.7x
2.0x
10.8x
8.0x
14.8x
4.8x
5.9x

Average
5.1x
Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

10.3x

7.5x

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

13.3x
12.4x
10.4x
14.8x
12.6x
15.4x
12.4x
10.6x
5.9x
28.4x
9.3x
nm
12.1x
3.8x
12.4x

34.8x
nm
nm
14.1x
nm
48.1x
nm
nm
nm
nm
28.6x
nm
31.0x
21.2x

36.8x
nm
20.5x
12.5x
26.4x
27.0x
28.7x
31.2x
nm
27.0x
16.6x
nm
12.4x
10.8x

1.3x
2.5x
0.2x
2.8x
1.5x
1.5x
-0.7x
2.0x
2.4x
2.2x
0.6x
3.1x
2.2x
1.3x

2.7x
60.2x
2.3x
0.9x
3.1x
4.1x
-1.7x
3.4x
4.9x
1.1x
0.0x
125.0x
6.1x
3.5x

2.6x
4.3x
0.3x
0.5x
2.0x
2.9x
-1.3x
2.1x
2.8x
0.1x
-0.3x
14.9x
3.2x
1.9x

29.6x

22.7x

1.6x

15.4x

2.6x

5.9x
8.9x
4.4x
19.5x
4.8x
26.0x
7.9x
6.2x
4.2x
8.6x
8.0x
12.5x
5.8x
15.4x
4.7x
7.2x
2.9x
7.9x
11.2x
13.1x
5.1x
8.2x
5.3x nm
4.6x
8.9x
4.1x
8.2x
5.6x

11.6x

P/TBook
9.2x
6.8x
6.5x
6.2x
6.0x
10.3x
9.9x
5.3x
4.8x
9.6x
6.3x
26.9x
5.7x
5.5x
8.5x

---------------

---------------

---------------

2.0x
1.1x
1.7x
4.6x
0.7x
3.3x
4.1x
1.1x
0.3x
3.8x
1.2x
0.6x
0.7x
1.0x
1.9x

3) Oilfield Services, Junior E&Ps, Large Caps and Integrated E&Ps D/CF calculated using Net Debt; Dividend-Paying, and International's D/CF calculated using Current Assets
minus Current Liabilities.

---------------

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

10

Exhibit 9. Comparables Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos

2015E CFPS
Company

Ticker

CIBC Base

Consensus

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$2.15

Husky Energy
Imperial Oil
Suncor Energy

HSE
IMO
SU

$3.86
$4.00
$4.55

2015E Production

2016E CFPS

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Base

Consensus

$2.25

-5%

$2.74

285,797

280,332

2%

$2.77

$3.47
$3.63
$4.07

11%
10%
12%

$3.96
$4.68
$4.66

343,588
371,317
568,162

341,972
360,826
572,691

0%
3%
-1%

$5.37
$4.85
$5.35

2016E Production

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

$2.63

5%

$2.85

289,644

287,230

1%

$4.42
$4.81
$5.35

22%
1%
0%

$5.24
$4.98
$5.27

373,539
429,154
591,053

352,376
421,185
585,745

6%
2%
1%

Integrated

Average

7%

1%

7%

2%

Large Cap
Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Oil Sands
Encana
Talisman Energy
Tourmaline Oil

CNQ
COS
ECA (US)
TLM (US)
TOU

$5.35
$0.69
$1.65
$1.73
$4.39

$5.44
$0.75
$2.03
$1.61
$4.22

Average

-2%
-9%
-19%
7%
4%

$5.63
$0.72
$1.71
$1.71
$4.41

873,469
105,444
415,476
378,636
165,646

870,016
103,270
412,522
363,414
163,970

-4%

0%
2%
1%
4%
1%

$7.67
$1.41
$3.18
$1.96
$6.87

$6.74
$1.58
$2.68
$1.96
$5.68

2%

14%
-11%
18%
0%
21%

$6.31
$1.22
$2.01
$1.56
$5.81

883,484
105,444
434,873
417,028
209,083

861,222
106,049
411,221
367,601
194,052

8%

3%
-1%
6%
13%
8%
6%

Dividend-Paying
ARC Resources
Baytex Energy
Bonavista Energy
Bonterra Energy
Cardinal Energy
Crescent Point Energy
Enerplus
Freehold Royalties
Journey Energy
Lightstream Resources
Long Run Exploration
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth Energy
Penn West Petroleum
Peyto Exploration
PrairieSky Royalty
Spyglass Resources
Surge Energy
TORC Oil & Gas
Trilogy Energy
Twin Butte Energy
Vermilion Energy
Whitecap Resources

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
JOY
LTS
LRE
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGL
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average

$2.13
$3.26
$1.82
$3.54
$1.53
$4.06
$2.80
R
$1.13
$1.05
$0.77
$1.54
$0.85
$0.60
$3.91
$1.10
$0.09
$0.70
$1.07
$0.83
$0.50
$4.79
$1.99

$2.16
$3.13
$1.84
$3.38
$1.52
$4.19
$2.63
$1.16
$1.16
$0.88
$0.76
$1.63
$0.87
$0.64
$3.79
$1.13
$0.12
$0.64
$1.18
$0.80
$0.48
$4.80
$1.72

-1%
4%
-1%
5%
0%
-3%
7%
R
-3%
19%
1%
-6%
-1%
-6%
3%
-2%
-25%
9%
-9%
3%
5%
0%
15%
1%

$2.30
$3.45
$1.89
$3.93
$1.74
$4.34
$2.93
R
$1.33
$1.14
$0.83
$1.66
$0.94
$0.71
$3.97
$1.14
$0.21
$0.82
$1.36
$0.94
$0.53
$4.95
$2.09

121,500
86,000
81,000
12,850
11,200
153,000
97,000
R
11,200
32,000
33,000
21,600
74,000
93,000
89,000
18,026
9,000
20,000
13,225
30,000
18,750
55,500
40,000

120,232
86,179
80,669
13,137
11,224
152,673
97,234
9,920
11,059
30,978
32,375
21,813
74,129
91,405
89,667
18,583
8,949
19,496
13,059
30,070
18,745
55,192
39,722

1%
0%
0%
-2%
0%
0%
0%
R
1%
3%
2%
-1%
0%
2%
-1%
-3%
1%
3%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
0%

$2.81
$3.76
$2.10
$5.35
$2.05
$4.17
$2.77
R
$1.62
$0.99
$0.79
$2.05
$0.89
$1.34
$4.66
$1.46
$0.10
$0.93
$1.34
$1.29
$0.41
$7.12
$2.35

$2.64
$3.27
$1.93
$4.70
$1.81
$4.11
$2.48
$1.50
$1.48
$0.73
$0.69
$1.73
$0.88
$1.00
$4.51
$1.39
$0.08
$0.77
$1.41
$1.13
$0.39
$6.71
$1.87

6%
15%
9%
14%
13%
2%
12%
R
10%
36%
15%
19%
2%
34%
4%
5%
22%
21%
-5%
14%
5%
6%
26%

$2.55
$3.29
$1.81
$4.94
$1.74
$3.99
$2.43
R
$1.37
$0.82
$0.63
$1.76
$0.74
$1.13
$4.04
$1.34
$0.14
$0.85
$1.30
$1.03
$0.37
$6.24
$2.17

13%

Notes:
1) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. Consensus numbers converted from $CAD to $USD using currency strip pricing; 0.81 USD/CAD for 2015 and 0.815 USD/CAD for 2016.
2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

128,500
91,000
85,000
13,800
11,700
157,000
100,000
R
11,200
27,000
30,000
23,100
74,000
93,000
104,000
18,398
8,000
20,000
13,625
28,000
18,750
65,000
45,000

126,086
88,181
81,509
13,559
11,698
156,001
97,945
9,744
11,203
25,975
28,950
21,328
73,126
86,283
101,726
18,799
7,900
18,490
13,804
27,118
18,534
62,102
43,124

2%
3%
4%
2%
0%
1%
2%
R
0%
4%
4%
8%
1%
8%
2%
-2%
1%
8%
-1%
3%
1%
5%
4%
3%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 10. CIBC vs Consensus Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps

11

2015E CFPS
Company

2015E Production

2016E CFPS

2016E Production

Ticker

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

BXE
BIR
CQE
CR
DTX
KEL
LEG
NVA
PPY
POU
PMT
RRX
RMP
VII

$0.67
$1.03
$0.22
$0.75
$1.41
$0.62
$0.71
R
$0.42
$1.98
$0.09
$0.81
$0.73
$1.67

$0.71
$1.14
$0.21
$0.74
$1.44
$0.67
$0.81
R
$0.49
$2.75
$0.08
$0.84
$0.82
$1.69

-7%
-10%
7%
2%
-2%
-7%
-12%
R
-16%
-28%
8%
-3%
-10%
-1%

$0.73
$1.21
$0.24
$0.79
$1.55
$0.72
$0.88
R
$0.42
$2.51
$0.11
$0.94
$0.82
$1.80

43,010
39,585
11,500
21,875
12,600
20,000
23,300
R
16,000
57,000
18,958
13,500
13,500
59,315

43,056
39,248
11,449
21,032
13,132
20,034
23,269
R
16,033
56,690
19,585
13,562
13,627
57,962

0%
1%
0%
4%
-4%
0%
0%
R
0%
1%
-3%
0%
-1%
2%

$1.06
$1.77
$0.32
$1.09
$1.90
$0.96
$1.15
R
$0.94
$5.45
$0.21
$1.16
$1.16
$3.25

$1.05
$1.56
$0.25
$0.90
$1.85
$0.96
$1.12
R
$0.99
$4.90
$0.20
$1.25
$1.01
$2.65

2%
13%
28%
21%
2%
0%
3%
R
-5%
11%
7%
-8%
15%
23%

$0.86
$1.57
$0.25
$0.86
$1.74
$0.80
$1.03
R
$0.67
$4.53
$0.10
$1.08
$1.02
$2.90

43,800
45,955
12,630
28,450
13,815
23,625
23,000
R
22,900
73,350
17,760
14,695
16,000
98,825

44,045
42,301
11,734
26,027
14,609
22,244
23,095
R
22,575
70,040
17,732
15,895
14,919
91,516

-1%
9%
8%
9%
-5%
6%
0%
R
1%
5%
0%
-8%
7%
8%

Junior
Bellatrix Exploration
Birchcliff Energy
Cequence Energy
Crew Energy
DeeThree Exploration
Kelt Exploration
Legacy Oil & Gas
NuVista Energy
Painted Pony Petroleum
Paramount Resources
Perpetual Energy
Raging River Exploration
RMP Energy
Seven Generations Energy
Average

-6%

0%

9%

3%

International
Bankers Petroleum
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Pacific Rubiales
Petroamerica Oil
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

BNK
CNE
GTE
PRE
PTA
PXT
TGL

$0.56
$0.58
$0.64
$4.02
$0.02
R
$0.46

$0.82
$0.91
$0.69
$4.02
$0.03
R
$0.46

Average

$0.56
$0.60
$0.62
$3.98
$0.02
R
$0.45

19,655
11,601
23,088
176,018
4,608
R
12,975

19,763
11,731
19,195
156,010
4,539
R
13,295

-19%

Oilfield Services
Company
Black Diamond Group
Calfrac Well Services
Canyon Services Group
Enerflex
Ensign Energy Services
Mullen Group
Pason Systems
Precision Drilling
Savanna Energy Services
Secure Energy Services
Total Energy Services
Trican Well Service
Trinidad Drilling
Western Energy Services

-31%
-36%
-7%
0%
-38%
R
-2%

Average
Notes:
1) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

CIBC Base
$299
$1,821
$397
$1,512
$1,556
$1,272
$305
$1,793
$547
$2,197
$355
$1,437
$427
$281

Consensus
$315
$1,768
$419
$1,718
$1,596
$1,323
$325
$1,676
$505
$1,891
$355
$1,725
$600
$322

$0.79
$0.90
$0.84
$5.19
$0.01
R
$0.78

$0.91
$1.58
$0.93
$4.63
$0.05
R
$0.96

5%

2015E Revenue
Ticker
BDI
CFW
FRC
EFX
ESI
MTL
PSI
PD
SVY
SES
TOT
TCW
TDG
WRG

-1%
-1%
20%
13%
2%
R
-2%

-4%

CIBC Base
$95
$87
$24
$224
$261
$203
$101
$535
$62
$183
$55
-$10
$134
$87

Consensus
$103
$104
$34
$227
$291
$226
$119
$503
$69
$182
$57
$28
$144
$89

$0.56
$0.89
$0.74
$4.07
$0.01
R
$0.53

21,361
14,493
21,133
154,012
3,011
R
12,829

-17%

CIBC Base
$284
$2,300
$532
$1,654
$1,768
$1,409
$386
$2,104
$612
$2,434
$365
$1,687
$522
$363

Consensus
$334
$2,140
$534
$1,830
$1,846
$1,484
$399
$1,934
$640
$2,159
$406
$2,130
$694
$412

4%
-14%
4%
10%
-41%
R
-8%
-7%

2016E Revenue
Difference
-8%
-16%
-29%
-1%
-10%
-10%
-15%
6%
-11%
0%
-3%
-134%
-7%
-2%

20,466
16,855
20,297
139,729
5,110
R
13,872

-25%

2015E EBITDA
Difference
-5%
3%
-5%
-12%
-2%
-4%
-6%
7%
8%
16%
0%
-17%
-29%
-13%

-13%
-43%
-11%
12%
-74%
R
-19%

2016E EBITDA
Difference
-15%
7%
0%
-10%
-4%
-5%
-3%
9%
-4%
13%
-10%
-21%
-25%
-12%
-6%

CIBC Base
$90
$251
$91
$215
$357
$242
$156
$660
$93
$232
$69
$54
$203
$123

Consensus
$113
$243
$84
$238
$358
$261
$185
$608
$103
$242
$77
$170
$189
$122

Difference
-20%
3%
8%
-9%
0%
-7%
-16%
8%
-10%
-4%
-10%
-68%
7%
1%
-8%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

12

Exhibit 11. CIBC vs Consensus Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos

Exhibit 12. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics

CIBC Base Price Case

Production Per Share Growth

CFPS Growth

EPS Growth
2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

1%

6%

0%

1%

10%

9%

-1%

-4%

-53%

29%

32%

6%

36%

-46%

-94%

na

131%

8%

Husky Energy

HSE

3%

9%

1%

9%

3%

4%

19%

6%

-31%

39%

21%

4%

3%

-4%

-69%

na

52%

5%

Imperial Oil

IMO

4%

5%

20%

16%

3%

-1%

-15%

24%

-36%

21%

29%

-3%

-25%

9%

-32%

na

44%

-5%

Suncor Energy

SU

2%

-5%

6%

4%

14%

4%

-1%

-1%

-26%

18%

28%

8%

-1%

1%

-54%

na

52%

11%

3%

4%

7%

7%

7%

4%

1%

6%

-37%

27%

27%

4%

3%

-10%

-62%

na

70%

5%
20%

Integrated Average

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

2%

18%

10%

1%

11%

8%

25%

27%

-39%

43%

43%

14%

52%

55%

-90%

na

118%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

-7%

-4%

12%

0%

0%

2%

-15%

-18%

-70%

105%

33%

5%

-15%

-45%

-179%

na

35%

4%

Encana

ECA (US)

-2%

-8%

-22%

2%

11%

17%

-25%

13%

-58%

93%

66%

29%

-20%

24%

-149%

na

206%

36%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

-12%

-1%

2%

10%

4%

2%

-28%

-3%

-16%

14%

11%

2%

-360%

-109%

-2054%

na

-13%

0%

TOU

30%

39%

41%

25%

26%

16%

67%

64%

-4%

56%

57%

17%

866%

178%

-77%

na

118%

18%

Large Cap Average

2%

9%

9%

8%

10%

9%

5%

17%

-38%

62%

42%

13%

104%

21%

-510%

na

93%

16%

Total Average

2%

7%

8%

8%

9%

7%

3%

12%

-37%

46%

35%

9%

59%

7%

-311%

na

83%

11%

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

Tourmaline Oil

Production (Boe/d)

Total Cash Flow/Boe

FCF Yield
2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

267,508

284,787

285,797

289,644

318,544

345,875

$35.11

$31.56

$22.21

$21.96

$26.63

$26.13

3%

4%

0%

-1%

0%

0%

Husky Energy

HSE

311,929

340,525

343,588

373,539

383,770

398,601

$45.87

$44.46

$30.28

$38.77

$45.56

$45.52

1%

2%

3%

1%

3%

5%

Imperial Oil

IMO

294,439

309,910

371,317

429,154

444,129

438,587

$40.04

$46.99

$25.24

$26.48

$33.14

$32.54

-9%

1%

0%

3%

6%

3%

Suncor Energy

SU

562,385

534,578

568,162

591,053

671,094

694,375

$46.85

$48.62

$37.43

$41.05

$44.77

$45.44

6%

4%

0%

2%

5%

6%

$41.97

$42.91

$28.79

$32.07

$37.52

$37.41

0%

3%

1%

1%

4%

3%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

671,157

790,199

873,469

883,484

980,425

1,059,443

$30.52

$33.24

$18.06

$25.51

$32.85

$34.28

1%

-4%

-1%

2%

7%

14%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

98,037

94,557

105,444

105,444

105,444

108,016

$38.27

$32.04

$8.64

$17.65

$23.55

$24.01

0%

3%

-2%

5%

9%

8%

Encana

ECA (US)

516,399

478,358

415,476

434,873

481,181

564,873

$13.41

$15.52

$8.92

$16.81

$25.25

$27.75

2%

-22%

0%

2%

5%

8%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

373,113

370,054

378,636

417,028

435,619

443,374

$14.32

$14.73

$11.47

$11.98

$12.89

$12.95

-10%

-7%

-15%

-13%

-9%

-9%

TOU

74,796

112,929

165,646

209,083

263,750

306,250

Tourmaline Oil

$19.29

$22.54

$15.35

$19.19

$23.90

$24.04

-11%

-6%

-8%

-9%

-6%

-4%

Large Cap Average

$23.16

$23.61

$12.49

$18.23

$23.69

$24.61

-3%

-7%

-5%

-3%

1%

3%

Total Average

$31.52

$32.19

$19.73

$24.38

$29.84

$30.30

-2%

-3%

-3%

-1%

2%

3%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

13

Forward Strip Case

Production Per Share Growth

CFPS Growth

EPS Growth
2016E

2017E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

1%

6%

0%

2%

10%

9%

-1%

-4%

-39%

-2%

15%

6%

36%

-46%

-34%

-21%

64%

7%

Husky Energy

HSE

3%

9%

1%

9%

3%

4%

19%

6%

-23%

23%

7%

6%

3%

-4%

-49%

43%

18%

13%

Imperial Oil

IMO

4%

5%

20%

16%

3%

-1%

-15%

24%

-33%

1%

15%

-1%

-25%

9%

-27%

-6%

23%

-2%

Suncor Energy

SU

2%

-5%

6%

4%

14%

3%

-1%

-1%

-20%

8%

10%

9%

-1%

1%

-42%

9%

5%

17%

3%

4%

7%

8%

7%

4%

1%

6%

-29%

8%

12%

5%

3%

-10%

-38%

6%

27%

9%

Integrated Average

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2018E

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

2%

18%

10%

1%

11%

8%

25%

27%

-32%

13%

23%

18%

52%

55%

-78%

62%

68%

40%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

-7%

-4%

12%

0%

0%

2%

-15%

-18%

-64%

56%

5%

9%

-15%

-45%

-162%

-169%

7%

18%

Encana

ECA (US)

-2%

-8%

-22%

2%

11%

17%

-25%

13%

-55%

36%

50%

37%

-20%

24%

-138%

-114%

1024%

79%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

-12%

-1%

2%

10%

4%

2%

-28%

-3%

-16%

-3%

-18%

5%

-360%

-109%

-2045%

83%

29%

13%

TOU

30%

39%

41%

25%

26%

16%

67%

64%

-4%

33%

41%

21%

866%

178%

-77%

79%

99%

32%

Large Cap Average

2%

9%

9%

8%

10%

9%

5%

17%

-34%

27%

20%

18%

104%

21%

-500%

-12%

245%

37%

Total Average

2%

7%

8%

8%

9%

7%

3%

12%

-32%

18%

16%

12%

59%

7%

-295%

-4%

148%

24%

Tourmaline Oil

Production (Boe/d)

Total Cash Flow/Boe

FCF Yield

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

267,508

284,787

283,627

289,644

318,544

345,875

$35.11

$31.56

$27.36

$21.68

$22.75

$22.14

3%

4%

2%

-3%

-3%

-3%

Husky Energy

HSE

311,929

340,525

343,588

373,539

383,770

398,601

$45.87

$44.46

$33.79

$38.27

$39.89

$40.72

1%

2%

5%

0%

1%

2%

Imperial Oil

IMO

294,439

309,910

371,317

429,154

444,129

438,587

$40.04

$46.99

$26.36

$23.13

$25.79

$25.84

-9%

1%

0%

2%

3%

1%

Suncor Energy

SU

562,385

534,578

568,162

591,053

671,094

694,375

$46.85

$48.62

$40.06

$40.86

$38.96

$40.22

6%

4%

1%

1%

3%

3%

$41.97

$42.91

$31.89

$30.98

$31.85

$32.23

0%

3%

2%

0%

1%

1%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

671,157

790,199

873,469

883,484

980,425

1,059,443

$30.52

$33.24

$20.02

$22.26

$24.64

$26.69

1%

-4%

1%

0%

1%

7%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

98,037

94,557

105,444

105,444

105,444

108,016

$38.27

$32.04

$10.39

$16.21

$17.05

$18.04

0%

3%

-1%

4%

5%

4%

Encana

ECA (US)

516,399

478,358

415,476

434,873

481,181

564,873

$13.41

$15.52

$9.66

$12.86

$17.53

$20.43

2%

-22%

1%

-3%

-6%

-5%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

373,113

370,054

378,636

417,028

435,619

443,374

$14.32

$14.73

$11.55

$10.11

$7.70

$7.94

-10%

-7%

-15%

-17%

-19%

-19%

TOU

74,796

112,929

165,646

209,083

263,750

306,250

Tourmaline Oil

$19.29

$22.54

$15.28

$16.25

$18.25

$19.00

-11%

-6%

-8%

-12%

-12%

-10%

Large Cap Average

$23.16

$23.61

$13.38

$15.54

$17.03

$18.42

-3%

-7%

-4%

-6%

-6%

-5%

Total Average

$31.52

$32.19

$21.61

$22.40

$23.62

$24.56

-2%

-3%

-2%

-3%

-3%

-2%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

14

Exhibit 13. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics

CIBC Base Price Case

Net Debt/Capitalization

Net Debt/Cash Flow

Total Payout Ratio

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

20%

31%

25%

31%

34%

36%

0.7x

1.3x

2.1x

2.1x

1.8x

2.0x

104%

103%

137%

143%

129%

125%

Husky Energy

HSE

13%

16%

22%

23%

23%

22%

0.6x

0.7x

1.5x

1.2x

1.1x

1.0x

118%

111%

108%

119%

104%

99%

Imperial Oil

IMO

23%

23%

23%

19%

12%

8%

1.4x

1.3x

2.1x

1.5x

0.7x

0.5x

189%

97%

114%

75%

59%

78%

Suncor Energy

SU

13%

16%

22%

23%

21%

19%

0.7x

0.9x

1.8x

1.6x

1.2x

1.0x

84%

93%

123%

110%

86%

84%

18%

22%

23%

24%

22%

21%

0.8x

1.0x

1.9x

1.6x

1.2x

1.1x

124%

101%

120%

112%

94%

97%

Integrated Average

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

27%

33%

36%

34%

29%

20%

1.3x

1.5x

2.7x

1.9x

1.2x

0.7x

105%

136%

122%

101%

81%

62%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

14%

29%

32%

29%

22%

16%

0.6x

1.7x

6.3x

2.7x

1.5x

1.1x

148%

145%

166%

65%

50%

61%

Encana

ECA (US)

47%

42%

37%

36%

31%

25%

1.8x

2.4x

4.4x

2.2x

1.2x

0.8x

103%

175%

111%

98%

91%

88%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

34%

34%

42%

50%

56%

61%

2.7x

2.2x

3.7x

4.0x

4.1x

4.6x

129%

84%

189%

169%

145%

145%

TOU

Tourmaline Oil

20%

21%

25%

32%

33%

32%

1.6x

1.2x

1.7x

1.7x

1.3x

1.2x

250%

169%

179%

157%

122%

112%

Large Cap Average

28%

32%

34%

36%

34%

31%

1.6x

1.8x

3.8x

2.5x

1.9x

1.7x

147%

142%

153%

118%

98%

93%

Total Average

24%

27%

29%

31%

29%

26%

1.3x

1.5x

2.9x

2.1x

1.6x

1.4x

137%

124%

139%

115%

96%

95%

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

CIBC Base

Forward Strip

US$40/Bbl,
US$3.00/Mcf

US$50/Bbl,
US$3.50/Mcf

US$60/Bbl,
US$4.00/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,
US$4.50/Mcf

EV/DACF

P/EPS

P/RNAV

Cenovus Energy

CVE

6.7x

5.8x

12.8x

9.7x

7.7x

7.5x

15.1x

27.9x

na

42.5x

18.4x

17.0x

97%

120%

nmf

339%

192%

140%

Husky Energy

HSE

6.1x

5.5x

8.5x

6.3x

5.3x

5.1x

13.0x

13.5x

43.7x

16.6x

10.9x

10.4x

103%

121%

nmf

228%

165%

129%

Imperial Oil

IMO

9.9x

9.9x

15.5x

12.5x

9.3x

9.3x

16.3x

14.9x

21.8x

17.4x

12.2x

12.7x

125%

192%

nmf

477%

255%

177%

Suncor Energy

SU

5.5x

6.7x

10.1x

8.7x

6.7x

6.2x

12.9x

12.8x

27.9x

20.1x

13.2x

11.9x

123%

148%

nmf

461%

237%

168%

7.0x

7.0x

11.7x

9.3x

7.3x

7.0x

14.3x

17.3x

31.1x

24.2x

13.7x

13.0x

112%

145%

nmf

376%

212%

154%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

5.8x

6.0x

9.8x

7.0x

4.8x

3.9x

18.3x

11.8x

na

19.9x

9.1x

7.6x

89%

131%

nmf

281%

157%

112%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

5.0x

7.1x

18.0x

10.9x

7.9x

7.2x

7.5x

13.6x

na

18.4x

13.7x

13.1x

101%

163%

nmf

nmf

346%

176%

Encana

ECA (US)

7.2x

5.1x

10.0x

6.0x

3.7x

2.8x

12.9x

10.4x

na

19.8x

6.5x

4.8x

76%

150%

nmf

487%

132%

76%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

7.9x

5.9x

7.1x

7.0x

6.8x

7.0x

na

na

na

na

na

na

115%

243%

nmf

839%

189%

107%

TOU

Tourmaline Oil

15.5x

11.7x

10.9x

7.4x

5.0x

4.4x

na

18.3x

na

24.7x

11.3x

9.6x

82%

108%

160%

111%

88%

74%

Large Cap Average

8.3x

7.2x

11.1x

7.7x

5.6x

5.0x

12.9x

13.5x

na

20.7x

10.1x

8.8x

93%

159%

160%

429%

182%

109%

Total Average

7.7x

7.1x

11.4x

8.4x

6.3x

5.9x

13.7x

15.4x

31.1x

22.4x

11.9x

10.9x

101%

153%

160%

403%

196%

129%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 14. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation

15

Forward Strip Case

Net Debt/Capitalization

Net Debt/Cash Flow

Total Payout Ratio

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

20%

31%

24%

32%

38%

44%

0.7x

1.3x

1.5x

2.2x

2.5x

2.9x

104%

103%

118%

166%

155%

152%

Husky Energy

HSE

13%

16%

21%

24%

27%

27%

0.6x

0.7x

1.3x

1.3x

1.4x

1.4x

118%

111%

96%

121%

118%

111%

Imperial Oil

IMO

23%

23%

22%

20%

16%

15%

1.4x

1.3x

2.0x

1.8x

1.3x

1.3x

189%

97%

109%

86%

75%

99%

Suncor Energy

SU

13%

16%

21%

22%

23%

22%

0.7x

0.9x

1.5x

1.5x

1.5x

1.4x

84%

93%

114%

110%

101%

96%

18%

22%

22%

25%

26%

27%

0.8x

1.0x

1.6x

1.7x

1.7x

1.7x

124%

101%

110%

121%

112%

114%
80%

Integrated Average

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

27%

33%

35%

36%

36%

32%

1.3x

1.5x

2.4x

2.3x

1.9x

1.5x

105%

136%

110%

116%

109%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

14%

29%

31%

29%

26%

24%

0.6x

1.7x

5.0x

2.9x

2.5x

2.1x

148%

145%

138%

71%

69%

81%

Encana

ECA (US)

47%

42%

36%

39%

41%

41%

1.8x

2.4x

4.0x

3.1x

2.4x

1.9x

103%

175%

102%

128%

131%

119%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

34%

34%

42%

51%

61%

71%

2.7x

2.2x

3.6x

4.9x

7.6x

8.7x

129%

84%

188%

196%

230%

225%

TOU

20%

21%

25%

35%

40%

43%

1.6x

1.2x

1.8x

2.2x

2.1x

2.2x

250%

169%

179%

185%

159%

141%

Large Cap Average

28%

32%

34%

38%

41%

42%

1.6x

1.8x

3.4x

3.1x

3.3x

3.3x

147%

142%

143%

139%

139%

129%

Total Average

24%

27%

29%

32%

34%

36%

1.3x

1.5x

2.6x

2.5x

2.6x

2.6x

137%

124%

128%

131%

127%

123%

Tourmaline Oil

EV/DACF

P/EPS

P/RNAV

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

CIBC Base

Forward Strip

US$40/Bbl,
US$3.00/Mcf

US$50/Bbl,
US$3.50/Mcf

US$60/Bbl,
US$4.00/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,
US$4.50/Mcf

Cenovus Energy

CVE

6.7x

5.8x

9.2x

9.8x

9.1x

9.0x

15.1x

27.9x

42.5x

53.8x

32.9x

30.6x

97%

120%

nmf

339%

192%

140%

Husky Energy

HSE

6.1x

5.5x

7.6x

6.4x

6.3x

6.0x

13.0x

13.5x

26.7x

18.6x

15.7x

13.9x

103%

121%

nmf

228%

165%

129%

Imperial Oil

IMO

9.9x

9.9x

14.8x

14.5x

12.3x

12.4x

16.3x

14.9x

20.4x

21.7x

17.7x

18.1x

125%

192%

nmf

477%

255%

177%

Suncor Energy

SU

5.5x

6.7x

9.2x

8.7x

8.0x

7.4x

12.9x

12.8x

22.1x

20.2x

19.3x

16.5x

123%

148%

nmf

461%

237%

168%

7.0x

7.0x

10.2x

9.8x

8.9x

8.7x

14.3x

17.3x

27.9x

28.6x

21.4x

19.8x

112%

145%

nmf

376%

212%

154%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

5.8x

6.0x

8.8x

8.1x

6.7x

5.5x

18.3x

11.8x

na

32.8x

19.5x

13.9x

89%

131%

nmf

281%

157%

112%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

5.0x

7.1x

15.1x

12.0x

11.1x

10.1x

7.5x

13.6x

na

31.9x

30.0x

25.3x

101%

163%

nmf

nmf

346%

176%

Encana

ECA (US)

7.2x

5.1x

9.3x

7.8x

5.7x

4.4x

12.9x

10.4x

na

na

17.4x

9.7x

76%

150%

nmf

487%

132%

76%

Talisman Energy

TLM (US)

7.9x

5.9x

7.1x

8.1x

10.7x

11.2x

na

na

na

na

na

na

115%

243%

nmf

839%

189%

107%

TOU

Tourmaline Oil

15.5x

11.7x

10.9x

8.9x

6.9x

6.1x

NA

18.3x

na

45.0x

22.6x

17.1x

82%

108%

160%

111%

88%

74%

Large Cap Average

8.3x

7.2x

10.2x

9.0x

8.2x

7.5x

12.9x

13.5x

na

36.6x

22.4x

16.5x

93%

159%

160%

429%

182%

109%

Total Average

7.7x

7.1x

10.2x

9.4x

8.5x

8.0x

13.7x

15.4x

27.9x

32.0x

21.9x

18.1x

101%

153%

160%

403%

196%

129%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

16

Exhibit 15. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation

CIBC Base Price Case

Cash Flow Per Share ($)
Cenovus Energy

CVE
CAGR (%)

Husky Energy

HSE
CAGR (%)

Imperial Oil

IMO
CAGR (%)

Suncor Energy

SU
CAGR (%)

Integrated Average
CAGR (%) Average
Canadian Natural Resources
CAGR (%)
Canadian Oil Sands
CAGR (%)
Encana
CAGR (%)
Talisman Energy
CAGR (%)
Tourmaline Oil
CAGR (%)
Large Cap Average
CAGR (%) Average
Total Average
CAGR (%) Average

CNQ
COS
ECA
TLM
TOU

Forward Strip Case

Earnings Per Share ($)

Cash Flow Per Share ($)

Earnings Per Share ($)

2013
$4.77
$5.31
$5.06
$6.26
$5.35

2014
$4.59
-4%
$5.62
6%
$6.25
24%
$6.18
-1%
$5.66
6%

2015E
$2.15
-33%
$3.86
-15%
$4.00
-11%
$4.55
-15%
$3.64
-18%

2016E
$2.77
-17%
$5.37
0%
$4.85
-1%
$5.35
-5%
$4.58
-5%

2017E
$3.64
-7%
$6.49
5%
$6.28
6%
$6.85
2%
$5.81
2%

2018E
$3.87
-4%
$6.73
5%
$6.09
4%
$7.37
3%
$6.01
2%

2013
$1.55
$2.15
$3.32
$3.13
$2.54

2014
$0.84
-46%
$2.07
-4%
$3.63
9%
$3.15
1%
$2.42
-5%

2015E
$0.05
-81%
$0.64
-46%
$2.48
-14%
$1.44
-32%
$1.15
-33%

2016E
$0.55
-29%
$1.68
-8%
$3.11
-2%
$2.00
-14%
$1.83
-10%

2017E
$1.27
-5%
$2.55
4%
$4.46
8%
$3.04
-1%
$2.83
3%

2018E
$1.37
-2%
$2.68
4%
$4.26
5%
$3.38
2%
$2.92
3%

2013
$4.77
$5.31
$5.06
$6.26
$5.35

2014
$4.59
-4%
$5.62
6%
$6.25
24%
$6.18
-1%
$5.66
6%

2015E
$2.80
-23%
$4.31
-10%
$4.17
-9%
$4.93
-11%
$4.05
-13%

2016E
$2.76
-17%
$5.30
0%
$4.23
-6%
$5.31
-5%
$4.40
-6%

2017E
$3.18
-10%
$5.68
2%
$4.89
-1%
$5.83
-2%
$4.89
-2%

2018E
$3.37
-7%
$6.02
3%
$4.83
-1%
$6.35
0%
$5.14
-1%

2013
$1.55
$2.15
$3.32
$3.13
$2.54

2014
$0.84
-46%
$2.07
-4%
$3.63
9%
$3.15
1%
$2.42
-5%

2015E
$0.55
-40%
$1.04
-30%
$2.66
-11%
$1.82
-24%
$1.52
-23%

2016E
$0.43
-35%
$1.50
-11%
$2.49
-9%
$1.99
-14%
$1.60
-14%

2017E
$0.71
-18%
$1.77
-5%
$3.07
-2%
$2.08
-10%
$1.91
-7%

2018E
$0.76
-13%
$2.01
-1%
$3.00
-2%
$2.44
-5%
$2.05
-4%

$6.86
$2.79
$3.50
$2.13
$2.80
$3.61

$8.74
27%
$2.28
-18%
$3.96
13%
$2.07
-3%
$4.58
64%
$4.33
20%
$4.92
12%

$5.35
-12%
$0.69
-50%
$1.65
-31%
$1.73
-10%
$4.39
25%
$2.76
-13%
$3.15
-15%

$7.67
4%
$1.41
-20%
$3.18
-3%
$1.96
-3%
$6.87
35%
$4.22
5%
$4.38
0%

$10.98
13%
$1.87
-10%
$5.26
11%
$2.18
1%
$10.77
40%
$6.21
15%
$6.03
8%

$12.55
13%
$1.96
-7%
$6.78
14%
$2.23
1%
$12.58
35%
$7.22
15%
$6.68
9%

$2.23
$1.72
$1.09
-$0.24
$0.82
$1.12

$3.47
55%
$0.95
-45%
$1.35
24%
$0.02
109%
$2.29
178%
$1.62
44%
$1.97
13%

$0.35
-60%
-$0.75
n.a.
-$0.66
n.a.
-$0.41
-30%
$0.53
-20%
-$0.19
na
$0.41
-52%

$2.06
-3%
$0.70
-26%
$0.71
-13%
-$0.53
-30%
$1.69
27%
$0.92
-6%
$1.33
-9%

$4.50
19%
$0.94
-14%
$2.16
19%
-$0.46
-18%
$3.68
45%
$2.16
18%
$2.46
9%

$5.39
19%
$0.98
-11%
$2.94
22%
-$0.46
-14%
$4.35
39%
$2.64
19%
$2.76
10%

$6.86
$2.79
$3.50
$2.13
$2.80
$3.61

$8.74
27%
$2.28
-18%
$3.96
13%
$2.07
-3%
$4.58
64%
$4.33
64%
$4.92
20%

$5.93
-7%
$0.83
-46%
$1.79
-29%
$1.74
-10%
$4.38
25%
$2.93
25%
$3.43
-10%

$6.68
-1%
$1.29
-23%
$2.43
-11%
$1.69
-7%
$5.82
28%
$3.58
28%
$3.95
0%

$8.19
5%
$1.35
-17%
$3.65
1%
$1.38
-10%
$8.22
31%
$4.56
31%
$4.71
6%

$9.65
7%
$1.47
-12%
$4.99
7%
$1.44
-8%
$9.94
29%
$5.50
29%
$5.34
9%

$2.23
$1.72
$1.09
-$0.24
$0.82
$1.12

$3.47
55%
$0.95
-45%
$1.35
24%
$0.02
109%
$2.29
178%
$1.62
44%
$1.97
28%

$0.77
-41%
-$0.59
n.a.
-$0.51
n.a.
-$0.40
-30%
$0.52
-21%
-$0.04
n.a.
$0.65
-27%

$1.25
-18%
$0.40
-38%
$0.07
-60%
-$0.74
-45%
$0.93
4%
$0.38
-30%
$0.92
-23%

$2.10
-2%
$0.43
-29%
$0.80
-7%
-$0.96
-41%
$1.85
22%
$0.84
-7%
$1.32
-9%

$2.94
6%
$0.51
-22%
$1.44
6%
-$1.08
-35%
$2.44
24%
$1.25
2%
$1.61
-4%

$4.39

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

$1.75

$4.39

$1.75

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 16. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Per Share Metrics

17

CIBC Base Price Case

Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions)

Cash Flow ($ millions)

Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2015E

2016E

2017E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$3,011

$2,790

$1,885

$2,579

$3,141

$3,292

$3,609

$3,479

$1,795

$2,300

$3,064

$3,277

$343

$688

-$90

-$279

-$77

-$15

Husky Energy

HSE

$4,978

$4,957

$2,906

$5,128

$5,436

$5,383

$5,222

$5,526

$3,797

$5,286

$6,382

$6,623

$207

$435

$891

$158

$946

$1,240

Imperial Oil

IMO

$7,731

$4,736

$3,460

$2,681

$2,702

$3,637

$4,303

$5,315

$3,421

$4,148

$5,371

$5,209

-$1,986

-$272

-$39

$1,467

$2,669

$1,573

Suncor Energy

SU

$6,425

$6,858

$6,472

$6,812

$6,789

$7,057

$9,412

$9,058

$6,548

$7,676

$9,745

$10,324

$2,635

$2,097

$76

$864

$2,956

$3,267

$5,536

$4,835

$3,681

$4,300

$4,517

$4,842

$5,637

$5,845

$3,890

$4,853

$6,141

$6,358

$300

$737

$209

$553

$1,624

$1,516

Integrated Average

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2018E

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

$7,125

$11,581

$6,038

$7,325

$8,578

$7,274

$7,251

$9,202

$5,758

$8,250

$11,755

$13,291

$184

$521

-$281

$924

$3,177

$6,017

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

$1,342

$930

$457

$346

$355

$478

$1,369

$1,106

$333

$681

$906

$949

$27

$176

-$124

$335

$552

$471

Encana

ECA

$2,191

$4,987

$1,306

$2,400

$3,800

$4,800

$2,527

$2,967

$1,352

$2,676

$4,435

$5,722

-$185

$441

-$748

$276

$635

$922

Talisman Energy

TLM

$2,552

$1,513

$3,081

$3,131

$2,981

$3,056

$2,196

$2,143

$1,781

$2,021

$2,242

$2,296

-$981

-$2,384

-$1,300

-$1,110

-$739

-$760

Tourmaline Oil

TOU

$1,319

$1,567

$1,657

$2,300

$2,800

$3,000

$527

$929

$928

$1,469

$2,301

$2,687

-$1,019

-$170

-$985

-$831

-$499

-$313

Large Cap Average

$2,906

$4,116

$2,508

$3,100

$3,703

$3,722

$2,774

$3,269

$2,030

$3,019

$4,328

$4,989

-$395

-$283

-$687

-$81

$625

$1,268

Total Average

$4,075

$4,435

$3,029

$3,634

$4,065

$4,220

$4,046

$4,414

$2,857

$3,834

$5,133

$5,598

-$86

$170

-$289

$200

$1,069

$1,378

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2013

2014

Forward Strip Case

Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions)

Cash Flow ($ millions)

Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$3,011

$2,790

$1,872

$2,889

$3,191

$3,342

$3,609

$3,479

$2,311

$2,272

$2,619

$2,777

$343

$688

$439

-$617

-$572

-$565

Husky Energy

HSE

$4,978

$4,957

$2,906

$5,128

$5,436

$5,383

$5,222

$5,526

$4,237

$5,217

$5,588

$5,925

$207

$435

$1,331

$89

$152

$542

Imperial Oil

IMO

$7,731

$4,736

$3,460

$2,681

$2,702

$3,637

$4,303

$5,315

$3,572

$3,622

$4,181

$4,136

-$1,986

-$272

$112

$941

$1,479

$500

Suncor Energy

SU

$6,425

$6,858

$6,472

$6,812

$6,789

$7,057

$9,412

$9,058

$7,095

$7,627

$8,321

$8,986

$2,635

$2,097

$622

$815

$1,532

$1,929

$5,536

$4,835

$3,678

$4,378

$4,529

$4,855

$5,637

$5,845

$4,304

$4,685

$5,177

$5,456

$300

$737

$626

$307

$648

$601
$3,075

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

$7,125

$11,581

$6,038

$7,325

$8,578

$7,274

$7,251

$9,202

$6,382

$7,197

$8,819

$10,349

$184

$521

$344

-$129

$240

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

$1,342

$930

$457

$347

$355

$479

$1,369

$1,106

$400

$626

$656

$713

$27

$176

-$56

$279

$301

$234

Encana

ECA

$2,191

$4,987

$1,306

$2,400

$3,800

$4,800

$2,527

$2,967

$1,464

$2,047

$3,078

$4,211

-$185

$441

-$636

-$353

-$722

-$589

Talisman Energy

TLM

$2,552

$1,513

$3,081

$3,131

$2,981

$3,056

$2,196

$2,143

$1,791

$1,736

$1,417

$1,483

-$981

-$2,384

-$1,290

-$1,395

-$1,564

-$1,573

Tourmaline Oil

TOU

$1,319

$1,567

$1,657

$2,300

$2,800

$3,000

$527

$929

$924

$1,244

$1,757

$2,124

-$1,019

-$170

-$989

-$1,056

-$1,043

-$876

Large Cap Average

$2,906

$4,116

$2,508

$3,101

$3,703

$3,722

$2,774

$3,269

$2,192

$2,570

$3,145

$3,776

-$395

-$283

-$525

-$531

-$558

$54

Total Average

$4,075

$4,435

$3,028

$3,668

$4,070

$4,225

$4,046

$4,414

$3,131

$3,510

$4,048

$4,523

-$86

$170

-$14

-$158

-$22

$297

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

18

Exhibit 17. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Capital Expenditures, Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 18. Dividend Paying E&Ps Investment Ratings and Valuation

Share
Price
04/24/15

Symbol

ARC
Baytex
Bonavista
Bonterra
Cardinal
Crescent Point
Enerplus
Freehold *
Journey
Lightstream
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth
Penn West
Peyto
PrairieSky *
Spyglass
Surge
TORC
Trilogy
Twin Butte
Vermilion
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
JOY
LTS
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGL
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP
E&P Avg.
Royalty Avg.

$25.10
$23.75
$7.95
$36.83
$16.12
$32.10
$15.17
$17.82
$5.45
$1.26
$9.49
$4.18
$2.95
$35.56
$31.68
$0.36
$3.75
$10.64
$8.98
$0.81
$58.75
$15.04

52-Week
High

$33.68
$49.88
$17.73
$65.99
$20.96
$48.68
$27.05
$28.15
$12.25
$9.09
$19.00
$7.78
$11.00
$41.95
$42.60
$1.89
$8.82
$16.33
$31.64
$2.50
$78.24
$18.70

Low

Shares
O/S (M)

Market
Cap ($M)

$20.75
$14.56
$5.62
$32.87
$11.58
$21.20
$9.02
$16.14
$3.69
$0.64
$6.86
$2.77
$1.67
$29.67
$23.06
$0.26
$2.23
$6.48
$5.27
$0.65
$44.05
$9.75

337.3
204.6
216.1
32.2
56.7
446.5
205.7
71.2
43.5
197.3
103.4
533.4
497.3
158.7
149.6
127.8
220.1
109.8
125.9
351.8
107.3
291.1

$8,465
$4,858
$1,718
$1,185
$914
$14,333
$3,121
$1,335
$237
$249
$981
$2,230
$1,467
$5,644
$4,730
$45
$825
$1,168
$1,130
$285
$6,304
$4,378
$59,537
$6,065

ARC
Baytex
Bonavista
Bonterra
Cardinal
Crescent Point
Enerplus
Freehold *
Journey
Lightstream
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth
Penn West
Peyto
PrairieSky *
Spyglass
Surge
TORC
Trilogy
Twin Butte
Vermilion
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

Cash Yield
2015E

4.8%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
5.2%
8.6%
4.7%
R
5.5%
0.0%
10.1%
6.2%
1.4%
3.7%
3.4%
0.0%
8.0%
5.1%
0.0%
14.8%
4.4%
5.0%
5.1%
3.4%

2016E

4.8%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
5.2%
8.6%
4.0%

2014A

ARX
$1.20
BTE
$1.20
BNP
$0.42
BNE
$1.80
CJ
$0.84
CPG
$2.76
ERF
$0.72
FRU
R
JOY
$0.30
LTS
$0.00
NBZ
$0.96
PGF
$0.26
PWT
$0.04
PEY
$1.32
PSK
$1.09
SGL
$0.00
SGY
$0.30
TOG
$0.54
TET
$0.00
TBE
$0.12
VET
$2.58
WCP
$0.75
E&P Avg.
Royalty Avg.

$1.20
$1.20
$0.42
$1.80
$0.84
$2.76
$0.60
R
$0.30
$0.00
$0.96
$0.24
$0.04
$1.32
$1.04
$0.00
$0.30
$0.54
$0.00
$0.12
$2.58
$0.75

2013A

2014A

2015E

2016E

LT

$108.82
$97.96
$93.46
$75.33
$3.72
$3.18
$0.97

$98.84
$93.03
$94.62
$82.32
$4.35
$4.47
$0.91

$61.00
$52.50
$57.76
$48.26
$2.75
$2.73
$0.81

$80.00
$70.00
$75.29
$65.06
$3.50
$3.53
$0.85

$90.00
$80.00
$87.06
$76.24
$4.00
$4.00
$0.85

R
5.5%
0.0%
10.1%
5.7%
1.4%
3.7%
3.3%
0.0%
8.0%
5.1%
0.0%
14.8%
4.4%
5.0%
5.1%
3.3%

19

Natural Gas (C$/mcf)

F/X (US$/C$)

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

($ per Share, basic)

2015E

$3.55
$5.91
$2.69
$6.78
$2.12
$5.75
$4.20
$1.95
$2.56
$2.86
$2.61
$0.96
$1.89
$4.33
$1.22
$0.46
$1.22
$1.97
$2.78
$0.60
$7.63
$2.10

CIBC Base Assumptions

Price Forecast
BRENT (US$/bbl)
WTI (US$/bbl)
Ed. Par (C$/bbl)
WCS Heavy (C$/bbl)
NYMEX (US$/mcf)

$882.7
$1,665.6
$1,155.4
$380.4
$74.6
$3,458.2
$1,165.2
$136.4
$106.8
$1,624.7
$399.0
$2,123.3
$2,048.0
$852.1
-$69.0
$193.8
$519.6
$262.1
$751.0
$353.3
$1,289.0
$866.6
$20,171.6
$67.4

$991
$1,399
$885
$0
$0
$1,589
$1,057
$0
$0
$909
$314
$1,549
$1,866
$320
$0
$0
$0
$0
$296
$0
$224
$0
$11,399
N/A

Bank Credit Lines

Total Cur. Drawn ($M)
Avail ($M)
Current

Conv.
Debs.

Enterprise
Value

2014A

Total
Debt/CF
2015E

2016E

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$7
$0
$137
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$79
$0
$0
$222
N/A

$9,348
$6,524
$2,873
$1,565
$988
$17,791
$4,286
$1,471
$344
$1,873
$1,380
$4,353
$3,515
$6,496
$4,661
$239
$1,345
$1,430
$1,881
$638
$7,593
$5,244
$79,709
$6,132

1.1x
2.6x
2.1x
1.0x
0.6x
1.4x
1.6x
1.0x
1.1x
2.8x
1.4x
4.2x
2.5x
1.5x
-0.4x
3.3x
2.4x
1.3x
2.1x
1.7x
1.6x
1.6x
1.9x
0.6x

1.6x
2.7x
2.9x
3.5x
0.8x
2.1x
2.0x
R
2.5x
7.3x
1.7x
4.3x
7.7x
1.8x
-0.3x
16.1x
3.6x
2.5x
6.9x
1.8x
2.6x
1.4x
3.8x
-0.3x

1.3x
2.2x
2.2x
2.1x
0.5x
2.3x
2.4x
R
1.8x
7.6x
0.8x
3.8x
3.2x
1.8x
-0.5x
15.4x
2.6x
2.0x
4.5x
2.3x
1.6x
0.9x
3.1x
-0.5x

Per Share Growth

2015
2016

2014A

P/CF (x)
2015E

2016E

2014A

7.1x
4.0x
3.0x
5.4x
7.6x
5.6x
3.6x
R
2.1x
0.4x
3.6x
4.4x
1.6x
8.2x
31.8x
0.8x
3.1x
5.4x
3.2x
1.4x
7.7x
7.2x
4.3x
31.8x

11.8x
7.3x
4.4x
10.4x
10.6x
7.9x
5.4x
R
4.8x
1.2x
6.2x
4.9x
4.9x
9.1x
28.7x
3.8x
5.4x
9.9x
10.9x
1.6x
12.3x
7.6x
7.0x
28.7x

8.9x
6.3x
3.8x
6.9x
7.9x
7.7x
5.5x
R
3.4x
1.3x
4.6x
4.7x
2.2x
7.6x
21.6x
3.7x
4.0x
7.9x
7.0x
2.0x
8.2x
6.4x
5.5x
21.6x

7.9x
6.0x
4.6x
6.2x
10.1x
6.7x
4.8x
R
3.4x
2.7x
4.4x
7.5x
3.5x
9.3x
36.0x
3.2x
5.1x
7.3x
4.8x
2.8x
8.8x
8.4x
5.9x
36.0x

$1,040
$1,200
$600
$500
$125
$3,600
$1,000
R
$190
$1,150
$530
$1,250
$1,200
$1,000
$150
$200
$675
$375
$725
$365
$1,750
$1,000

-$352
$56
$154
$327
-$1
$1,261
-$102
R
$68
$569
$67
$191
$0
$439
-$63
$175
$491
$138
$405
$248
$1,014
$825

Cash Flow from Operations

Dist'n/Dividends
($ per Share)
2015E
2016E

Enterprise Value ($M)

Total
Senior
Debt
Notes

$2.13
$3.26
$1.82
$3.54
$1.53
$4.06
$2.80
R
$1.13
$1.05
$1.54
$0.85
$0.60
$3.91
$1.10
$0.09
$0.70
$1.07
$0.83
$0.50
$4.79
$1.99

2016E

$2.81
$3.76
$2.10
$5.35
$2.05
$4.17
$2.77
R
$1.62
$0.99
$2.05
$0.89
$1.34
$4.66
$1.46
$0.10
$0.93
$1.34
$1.29
$0.41
$7.12
$2.35

-40.0%
-44.8%
-32.3%
-47.8%
-27.9%
-29.4%
-33.3%
R
-56.1%
-63.2%
-40.9%
-10.8%
-68.4%
-9.6%
-45.7%
-79.9%
-43.1%
-45.5%
-70.3%
-15.9%
-37.3%
-5.2%
-40.1%
-45.7%

31.9%
15.3%
15.3%
51.0%
34.1%
2.8%
-1.2%
R
44.3%
-6.3%
32.8%
4.4%
123.2%
19.3%
32.8%
3.5%
33.7%
25.3%
56.0%
-18.0%
48.8%
18.2%
26.7%
32.8%

EV/DACF (x)
2015E

12.6x
8.7x
6.5x
12.6x
10.8x
9.2x
6.8x
R
6.6x
5.6x
6.8x
7.4x
8.6x
10.2x
28.6x
12.0x
7.7x
11.6x
13.0x
3.2x
13.3x
8.4x
9.1x
28.6x

2016E

9.6x
7.3x
5.4x
8.3x
7.9x
8.9x
7.1x
R
4.7x
5.8x
4.6x
7.0x
4.6x
8.8x
21.3x
11.7x
5.9x
8.9x
9.2x
3.9x
9.0x
6.8x
7.3x
21.3x

Drawn (%)
Current
2014A

0%
5%
26%
65%
-1%
35%
0%
R
36%
49%
13%
15%
0%
44%
-42%
87%
73%
37%
56%
68%
58%
82%
37%
-42%

0%
55%
26%
62%
38%
49%
8%
R
41%
49%
13%
0%
0%
61%
-46%
87%
78%
42%
56%
68%
68%
76%
44%
-46%

Core

Risked

P+P NAV
($/sh)

NAV
($/sh)

$8.09
$12.20
$6.04
$13.78
$11.28
$13.87
$8.69
R
$5.41
$0.76
$11.94
$2.93
$1.47
$12.16
$25.26
$0.06
$3.43
$6.21
$3.37
$1.09
$48.97
$9.21

$27.84
$23.85
$10.53
$43.32
$12.65
$38.67
$13.68
R
$5.90
$1.90
$15.66
$4.75
$6.00
$32.84
n.a.
$0.40
$4.50
$7.66
$15.07
$1.56
$64.58
$16.12

Target
Price

$30.00
$25.00
$10.50
$45.00
$17.50
$37.00
$15.00
R
$5.50
$1.15
$14.00
$4.50
$3.00
$42.00
$37.00
$0.25
$4.00
$11.50
$11.00
$1.00
$69.00
$18.50

P/Core
NAV

310%
195%
132%
267%
143%
232%
174%
R
101%
166%
80%
143%
200%
292%
125%
na
109%
171%
266%
75%
120%
163%
167%
125%

Expected
Return

Rating

SO
24%
SO
10%
SO
37%
SP
27%
SO
14%
SO
24%
SP
3%
R
R
SP
6%
SU
-9%
SO
58%
SP
13%
SP
3%
SO
22%
SO
17%
SU
-30%
SP
15%
SO
13%
22% SO (Spec.)
SP
38%
SO
22%
SO
28%
17%
17%

P/Risked
NAV

P/Bluesky
NAV

90%
100%
75%
85%
127%
83%
111%

47%
63%
49%
50%
114%
47%
63%
R

92%
66%
61%
88%
49%
108%
na
89%
83%
139%
60%
52%
91%
93%
87%
N/A

R
69%
25%
51%
63%
15%
65%
na
31%
59%
67%
16%
42%
55%
65%
53%
N/A

Analyst

Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Kaliel
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel/Gill
Grayfer
EV/

EV/P+P

Prd'n
($/boe/d)

Reserves
($/boe)

$76,937
$75,860
$35,471
$121,805
$88,155
$116,283
$44,187
R
$32,826
$58,540
$63,896
$58,825
$37,797
$72,994
$258,555
$26,577
$67,242
$111,104
$62,705
$34,038
$136,814
$131,108
$72,658
$258,555

$13.90
$15.12
$6.73
$19.50
$23.07
$22.04
$10.56
R
$7.04
$11.62
$8.72
$7.82
$6.27
$12.22
na
$4.42
$12.00
$22.18
$17.88
$10.42
$30.76
$23.92
$14.31
nm

Notes: Royalty averages include Freehold and PrairieSky, as denoted by their asterix. PrairieSky's 2014 estimates are in consideration of a 219-day stub year. Shares outstanding, net debt, and convertible debentures are
based on most recent information adjusted for any equity issues or acquisitions. Debt-to-cash flow (D/CF) ratios are based on estimated year-end debt and total cash flow for 2013E and 2014E. Ratio of enterprise value to
proved plus probable (P+P) reserves based on YE/14 reserve estimates adjusted for 2015 acquisitions YTD. Ratio of enterprise value to daily production is based on 2015E estimated production. Total debt includes convertible
debentures as debt. Dividends per share represent declared dividends, and are based on the actual shares outstanding at the time of each dividend. Cash flow from operations per share is based on the weighted average of
shares outstanding during the fiscal year. Core NAV is based on a blowdown analysis of P+P reserves, using a 9% after-tax discount rate, and is net of G&A, mgmt. fees, and abandonment costs. Risked NAV = Core NAV +
Risked Unbooked Value. Bluesky NAV = Core NAV + Unrisked Unbooked Value. Ratings: SO=Sector Outperformer, SP=Sector Performer, SU=Sector Underperformer, R=Restricted. Source: Company reports; CIBC estimates.

Gross
Revenue
($/boe)

ARC
Baytex
Bonavista
Bonterra
Cardinal
Crescent Point
Enerplus
Freehold *
Journey
Lightstream
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth
Penn West
Peyto
PrairieSky *
Spyglass
Surge
TORC
Trilogy
Twin Butte
Vermilion
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

$29.08
$39.26
$20.92
$44.20
$44.07
$48.56
$30.26
$35.56
$32.50
$42.08
$42.85
$33.55
$39.72
$20.06
$31.72
$25.84
$43.94
$45.84
$26.14
$42.66
$52.06
$44.75
$37.42

Oil
(bbl/d)

ARC
Baytex
Bonavista
Bonterra
Cardinal
Crescent Point
Enerplus
Freehold *
Journey
Lightstream
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth
Penn West
Peyto
PrairieSky *
Spyglass
Surge
TORC
Trilogy
Twin Butte
Vermilion
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

47,738
72,250
23,179
9,372
10,312
140,018
43,466
5,826
5,824
23,641
20,467
42,673
64,986
9,251
8,235
2,904
16,953
11,374
10,505
17,225
32,216
31,368
635,721

Netback Analysis ($/boe) - 2015E

Hedging
($/boe)

$3.97
$6.18
$4.75
$0.00
$9.18
$10.18
$7.70
$0.00
$3.27
$7.14
$6.48
$11.35
$0.15
$3.33
$0.00
$5.57
$4.66
$6.13
$0.00
$14.73
$0.22
$13.65
$5.93
$0.00

Royalties
($/boe)
(%)

($3.80)
($8.58)
($2.32)
($2.75)
($5.73)
($8.42)
($6.49)
R
($5.18)
($4.94)
($4.32)
($4.60)
($4.26)
($0.92)
($0.79)
($3.70)
($6.96)
($7.93)
($1.81)
($6.95)
($3.04)
($5.27)
($4.90)
($0.79)

13%
22%
11%
6%
13%
17%
21%
R
16%
12%
10%
14%
11%
5%
3%
14%
16%
17%
7%
16%
6%
12%
13%
3%

2015E Production
Gas
Total
(mmcf/d)
(boe/d) (% Gas)

442.6
82.5
346.9
20.9
5.3
77.9
321.2
24.2
32.3
50.2
6.8
188.0
168.1
478.5
58.7
36.6
18.3
11.1
117.0
9.1
139.7
51.8
2,604.6
83.0

121,500
86,000
81,000
12,850
11,200
153,000
97,000
R
11,200
32,000
21,600
74,000
93,000
89,000
18,026
9,000
20,000
13,225
30,000
18,750
55,500
40,000
1,069,824
18,026

61%
16%
71%
27%
8%
8%
55%
R
48%
26%
5%
42%
30%
90%
54%
68%
15%
14%
65%
8%
42%
22%
36%
54%

Operating
Costs
($/boe)

Operating
Netback
($/boe)

($9.00)
($10.72)
($7.43)
($12.50)
($22.48)
($12.50)
($11.16)
R
($13.50)
($14.25)
($17.75)
($16.00)
($19.50)
($2.00)
($3.04)
($18.75)
($15.25)
($12.85)
($10.00)
($20.50)
($11.37)
($11.06)
($13.43)
($3.04)

$20.25
$26.15
$15.92
$28.95
$25.04
$37.82
$20.31
R
$16.34
$30.03
$27.27
$24.30
$16.11
$20.46
$27.88
$8.96
$26.39
$28.54
$14.33
$29.95
$37.87
$42.07
$24.85
$27.88

CFPS Sensitivity (2015E)

Oil
Gas
FX
(US$5.00
(C$1.00
(US/CAD
/bbl)
/mcf)
$0.05)

7.9%
15.7%
5.0%
11.5%
28.7%
5.5%
7.2%
R
16.2%
25.0%
17.6%
3.0%
35.3%
2.3%
4.7%
59.3%
14.5%
13.6%
26.4%
5.4%
9.9%
5.1%
18.5%
4.7%

11.7%
2.9%
3.2%
6.1%
3.0%
0.6%
12.1%
R
15.9%
7.7%
0.2%
3.2%
13.6%
16.4%
6.0%
98.8%
1.5%
3.0%
43.3%
0.9%
3.4%
2.6%
14.7%
6.0%

Oil
(bbl/d)

2016E Production
Gas
Total
(mmcf/d)
(boe/d)

(% Gas)

51,492
77,250
23,883
10,105
10,775
143,518
43,231
R
5,824
19,149
21,967
45,526
66,725
10,000
9,403
2,417
17,058
11,718
9,250
17,250
32,831
36,299
656,267
9,403

462.0
128,500
82.5
91,000
366.7
85,000
22.2
13,800
5.6
11,700
80.9
157,000
340.6
100,000
RR
32.3
11,200
47.1
27,000
6.8
23,100
170.8
74,000
157.7
93,000
564.0
104,000
54.018,398
33.5
8,000
17.7
20,000
11.4
13,625
112.5
28,000
9.0
18,750
193.0
65,000
52.2
45,000
2,768.5 1,117,676
54.0
18,398

60%
15%
72%
27%
8%
9%
57%
R
48%
29%
5%
38%
28%
90%
49%
70%
15%
14%
67%
8%
49%
19%
36%
49%

11.4%
16.5%
6.1%
13.0%
17.0%
5.5%
15.2%
R
14.4%
25.6%
13.0%
1.9%
36.9%
5.6%
1.4%
108.6%
14.6%
10.2%
34.5%
7.2%
11.3%
5.3%
22.0%
1.4%

Gain/
Loss
(% of CF)

% Vol
Hedged

35%
14%
54%
0%
31%
45%
38%
R
10%
20%
19%
55%
13%
54%
n.a.
21%
24%
22%
0%
106%
9%
60%
31%
n.a.

24%
30%
36%
0%
42%
31%
47%
R
27%
40%
31%
66%
2%
18%
n.a.
155%
22%
25%
0%
57%
1%
36%
34%
n.a.

12%
14%
24%
0%
32%
46%
37%
R
11%
27%
20%
61%
0%
0%
n.a.
47%
29%
26%
0%
111%
4%
63%
28%
n.a.

6%
6%
5%
7%
4%
3%
3%
R

8%
-21%
4%
1%
-10%
17%
11%
-35%
11%
17%
-15%
-12%
12%
23%
5%
nm

1%
12%
1%
-3%
10%
0%
-7%
R

0%
-16%
7%
0%
0%
17%
2%
-11%
0%
3%
-7%
0%
17%
12%
3%
2%

$76.28
$92.07
$73.75
--$84.37
$71.53
$84.98
R
$91.05
$80.70
$61.92
$80.03
----n.a.
$79.68
$47.78
$90.87
--$48.85
$63.70
$72.08
$74.98
n.a.

Nat. Gas
% Vol
Avg Flr.
Hedged
(C$/Mcf)

50%
12%
66%
0%
22%
40%
38%
R
9%
0%
0%
46%
42%
60%
n.a.
8%
0%
--0%
41%
15%
51%
25%
n.a.

Production Growth
Prod. Per Share (PPS)
PPS + Dist. Reinvested
2015E 2016E
2015E
2016E

Gross Production
2015E
2016E

8%
49%
5%
-3%
43%
9%
-6%

2015E Hedging
Oil
Avg Flr.
(US$/Bbl)

% Total
Volume
Hedged

3%
-1%
4%
7%
4%
-1%
3%
R

-7%
-20%
-1%
-1%
-11%
14%
-3%
-35%
-2%
2%
-15%
-13%
9%
2%
-3%
nm

6%
-12%
7%
1%
16%
10%
-1%
R

-1%
-16%
-2%
-2%
-1%
16%
1%
-11%
0%
-1%
-7%
-1%
14%
9%
1%
1%

9%
7%
8%
-10%
22%
9%
7%
R

3%
-15%
11%
5%
1%
21%
1%
-11%
9%
4%
-7%
14%
20%
15%
7%
1%

$750
$540
$310
$70
$30
$1,450
$480
R
$63
$110
$86
$200
$525
$650
$0
$8
$75
$130
$100
$110
$415
$242
$6,344
$0

8%
6%
17%
15%
14%
7%
0%
R

-12%
-47%
17%
12%
-4%
17%
-6%
-42%
20%
11%
-13%
8%
13%
13%
2%
nm

R
9%
-23%
21%
9%
13%
17%
3%
-16%
12%
7%
-8%
13%
21%
19%
8%
3%

$408
$237
$86
$58
$48
$1,254
$148
R
$13
$0
$104
$141
$20
$208
$195
$0
$66
$58
$0
$42
$280
$211
$3,381
$195
Opening
Balance
YE/12A

PPS + Dist. + Debt Adj't

2015E
2016E

9%
5%
10%
13%
10%
10%
9%
R

-8%
-20%
11%
5%
-10%
18%
-5%
-35%
7%
7%
-15%
0%
14%
8%
1%
nm

$4.90
$4.70
$3.75
--$4.05
$3.78
$5.06
R
$3.74
----$3.91
$3.69
$3.76
n.a.
$4.33
------$3.98
$3.98
$3.59
$4.09
n.a.

Outflows vs. Inflows Analysis (2015E)

Outflows ($M)
Inflows ($M)
Dev.
Cash
Capex
Dividend
Flow
DRIP

607.0
291.6
372.2
45.0
3.5
608.8
345.8
R
21.6
205.7
135.1
510.9
676.0
392.1
n.a.
61.2
46.1
18.9
97.0
56.2
164.9
87.5
4,747.1
nm

Outflows as
% Inflows
(Exc. Disp)

Basic

130%
109%
100%
112%
88%
122%
109%
R
147%
53%
80%
70%
182%
139%
118%
68%
92%
144%
96%
86%
106%
81%
106%
118%

56%
37%
22%
51%
54%
68%
26%
R
26%
0%
62%
30%
7%
34%
118%
0%
43%
50%
0%
24%
54%
38%
34%
118%

P+P Reserve Reconciliation (mmboe) - 2013A

Develop.
Net
Drilling
Acq's
& Rev.
Prod'n

Closing
Balance
YE/13A

$724
$645
$395
$114
$89
$1,844
$577
R
$50
$208
$166
$462
$299
$615
$165
$12
$153
$117
$104
$178
$520
$559
$7,830
$165

(6.7)
(1.5)
14.7
26.3
16.0
5.3
14.9
R
2.8
(2.4)
19.4
(68.8)
(49.8)
n.a.
26.9
23.7
21.8
0.0
15.1
2.4
31.7
91.5
nm

$167
$71
$1
$0
$0
$376
$0
R
$1
$0
$71
$27
$0
$0
$32
$0
$0
$20
$0
$0
$133
$0
$868
$32

68.4
48.9
38.4
8.1
2.1
93.6
78.1
R
2.7
12.7
11.9
65.2
48.0
97.4
n.a.
(0.2)
7.6
8.6
20.8
3.4
46.3
20.5
682.6
nm

(34.8)
(20.9)
(26.8)
(4.4)
(0.5)
(43.9)
(32.8)
R
(1.9)
(16.9)
(6.8)
(30.7)
(49.0)
(21.6)
n.a.
(5.6)
(3.9)
(2.2)
(12.6)
(6.4)
(15.0)
(7.3)
(344.0)
nm

633.9
318.1
398.5
75.0
21.2
663.8
406.0
R
25.1
199.0
159.5
476.6
625.0
467.8
36.0
82.4
73.5
47.1
105.2
68.2
198.6
132.4
5,177.0
36.0

2015E Payout Ratios

Total
Total (incl. DRIP) Sustainable

160%
121%
100%
112%
88%
147%
109%
R
150%
53%
114%
74%
182%
139%
130%
68%
92%
161%
96%
86%
134%
81%
113%
130%

130%
109%
100%
112%
88%
122%
109%

7%
7%
0%
28%
83%
24%
0%
R

147%
53%
80%
70%
182%
139%
111%
68%
92%
144%
96%
86%
106%
81%
106%
111%

R
0%
0%
34%
13%
0%
21%
n.a.
0%
34%
29%
0%
37%
47%
48%
22%
nm

Reserve Life Index (Years)

Proved
Proved
Devp'd
Proved
+ Prob.

5.7
3.3
5.7
6.7
7.6
5.1
5.9

10.2
7.5
9.4
11.9
8.1
9.3
7.7
R

5.3
4.7
7.5
6.2
6.6
5.8
n.a.
6.7
5.7
5.6
5.8
3.4
4.9
6.6
5.7
nm

17.2
14.9
14.5
16.5
10.9
14.2
11.8
R

7.0
7.5
12.2
10.9
9.2
10.0
n.a.
9.4
9.9
9.0
6.3
5.3
8.6
11.7
9.1
nm

R
11.6
12.0
22.1
16.9
13.8
15.4
n.a.
14.2
16.8
13.6
8.4
9.4
13.3
16.4
14.2
nm

Notes: Per share cash flow sensitivities are based on 2014 estimates and include the impact of hedging activity. Reserve Life Index is calculated using estimated year-end 2014 reserves divided by estimated Q4/14 production (adjusted for 2015 acquisitions YTD). Basic payout ratio is defined as cash dividends divided by cash flow from operations. Total payout ratio is
defined as cash dividends plus development capital expenditures divided by each company's cash flow from operations. Total payout ratio (including the DRIP) is defined as cash dividends plus development capital expenditures divided by each company's cash flow from operations plus proceeds from the company's dividend reinvestment program (DRIP). Sustainable
payout ratio is defined as a theoretical payout ratio which would yield flat production and be financially self-sustaining (i.e., fund 100% of capex from cash flow while spending sufficient capital to replace 100% of annual production declines). CFPS: Cash flow per share; CF: Cash flow. R=Restricted. Source: Company reports; CIBC estimates.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

20

Exhibit 19. Dividend Paying E&Ps Key Operating Statistics

A. Base Pricing Assumptions

Share
Cash Flow from Operations
Price ($) ($ per Share, basic) Per Share Growth
04/24/15
2015E
2016E 2015
2016

ARC
$25.10
Baytex
$23.75
Bonavista
$7.95
Bonterra
$36.83
Cardinal
$16.12
Crescent Point
$32.10
Enerplus
$15.17
Freehold *
R
Journey
$5.45
Lightstream
$1.26
Northern Blizzard
$9.49
Pengrowth
$4.18
Penn West
$2.95
Peyto
$35.56
PrairieSky *
$31.68
Spyglass
$0.36
Surge
$3.75
TORC
$10.64
Trilogy
$8.98
Twin Butte
$0.81
Vermilion
$58.75
Whitecap
$15.04
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

$2.13
$3.26
$1.82
$3.54
$1.53
$4.06
$2.80

$2.81
$3.76
$2.10
$5.35
$2.05
$4.17
$2.77

$1.13
$1.05
$1.54
$0.85
$0.60
$3.91
$1.10
$0.09
$0.70
$1.07
$0.83
$0.50
$4.79
$1.99

$1.62
$0.99
$2.05
$0.89
$1.34
$4.66
$1.46
$0.10
$0.93
$1.34
$1.29
$0.41
$7.12
$2.35

2015E 2016E
CDPS CDPS

-40.0%
-44.8%
-32.3%
-47.8%
-27.9%
-29.4%
-33.3%

31.9%
15.3%
15.3%
51.0%
34.1%
2.8%
-1.2%

$1.20
$1.20
$0.42
$1.80
$0.84
$2.76
$0.72

$1.20
$1.20
$0.42
$1.80
$0.84
$2.76
$0.60

-56.1% 44.3%
-63.2% -6.3%
-40.9% 32.8%
-10.8%
4.4%
-68.4% 123.2%
-9.6% 19.3%
-45.7% 32.8%
-79.9%
3.5%
-43.1% 33.7%
-45.5% 25.3%
-70.3% 56.0%
-15.9% -18.0%
-37.3% 48.8%
-5.2% 18.2%
-40.1% 26.7%
-45.7% 32.8%

$0.30
$0.00
$0.96
$0.26
$0.04
$1.32
$1.09
$0.00
$0.30
$0.54
$0.00
$0.12
$2.58
$0.75

$0.30
$0.00
$0.96
$0.24
$0.04
$1.32
$1.04
$0.00
$0.30
$0.54
$0.00
$0.12
$2.58
$0.75

P/CF (x)
2015E 2016E

EV/DACF (x)
2014E 2015E 2016E

Cash Yield
2015E 2016E

11.8x
7.3x
4.4x
10.4x
10.6x
7.9x
5.4x

7.9x
6.0x
4.6x
6.2x
10.1x
6.7x
4.8x

4.8%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
5.2%
8.6%
4.7%

8.9x
6.3x
3.8x
6.9x
7.9x
7.7x
5.5x

$27.84
$23.85
$10.53
$43.32
$12.65
$38.67
$13.68

310%
195%
132%
267%
143%
232%
174%

$5.41
$0.76
$11.94
$2.93
$1.47
$12.16
$25.26
$0.06
$3.43
$6.21
$3.37
$1.09
$48.97
$9.21

$5.90
$1.90
$15.66
$4.75
$6.00
$32.84
n.a.
$0.40
$4.50
$7.66
$15.07
$1.56
$64.58
$16.12

101%
166%
80%
143%
200%
292%
125%
na
109%
171%
266%
75%
120%
163%
167%
125%

P/CF (x)
2015E 2016E

EV/DACF (x)
2014E 2015E 2016E

Cash Yield
2015E 2016E

10.9x
9.9x
6.9x
7.2x
4.2x
4.4x
9.4x
7.5x
9.2x
9.3x
7.4x
8.0x
5.2x
6.2x
R
R
4.1x
4.0x
1.1x
1.5x
5.7x
5.4x
4.5x
5.6x
4.1x
2.6x
8.9x
8.8x
27.8x 23.7x
1.7x
2.6x
4.6x
4.4x
7.8x
8.2x
9.6x
8.7x
1.5x
2.2x
11.9x
9.4x
7.2x
6.9x
6.3x
6.1x
27.8x 23.7x

7.9x
6.0x
4.6x
6.2x
10.1x
6.7x
4.8x
R
3.3x
2.7x
4.4x
7.5x
3.5x
9.3x
36.0x
3.2x
5.1x
7.3x
4.8x
2.8x
8.8x
8.4x
5.9x
36.0x

6.6x
5.6x
6.8x
7.4x
8.6x
10.2x
28.6x
12.0x
7.7x
11.6x
13.0x
3.2x
13.3x
8.4x
9.1x
28.6x

$8.09
$12.20
$6.04
$13.78
$11.28
$13.87
$8.69

3.4x
2.7x
4.4x
7.5x
3.5x
9.3x
36.0x
3.2x
5.1x
7.3x
4.8x
2.8x
8.8x
8.4x
5.9x
36.0x

4.8%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
5.2%
8.6%
4.0%

5.5% 5.5%
0.0% 0.0%
10.1% 10.1%
6.2% 5.7%
1.4% 1.4%
3.7% 3.7%
3.4% 3.3%
0.0% 0.0%
8.0% 8.0%
5.1% 5.1%
0.0% 0.0%
14.8% 14.8%
4.4% 4.4%
5.0% 5.0%
5.1% 5.1%
3.4% 3.3%

3.4x
1.3x
4.6x
4.7x
2.2x
7.6x
21.6x
3.7x
4.0x
7.9x
7.0x
2.0x
8.2x
6.4x
5.5x
21.6x

9.6x
7.3x
5.4x
8.3x
7.9x
8.9x
7.1x
4.7x
5.8x
4.6x
7.0x
4.6x
8.8x
21.3x
11.7x
5.9x
8.9x
9.2x
3.9x
9.0x
6.8x
7.3x
21.3x

4.8x
1.2x
6.2x
4.9x
4.9x
9.1x
28.7x
3.8x
5.4x
9.9x
10.9x
1.6x
12.3x
7.6x
7.0x
28.7x

12.6x
8.7x
6.5x
12.6x
10.8x
9.2x
6.8x

Net Asset Value (NAV)

Core
Risked P/Core P/Risked
NAV ($) NAV ($)
NAV
NAV

90%
100%
75%
85%
127%
83%
111%

Total
2015E
2016E

Total
(incl. DRIP)
2015E
2016E

56%
37%
22%
51%
54%
68%
26%

160%
121%
100%
112%
88%
147%
109%

130%
109%
100%
112%
88%
122%
109%

R
92%
66%
61%
88%
49%
108%
n.a.
89%
83%
139%
60%
52%
91%
93%
87%

43%
32%
19%
34%
40%
66%
22%

R
26%
0%
62%
30%
7%
34%
118%
0%
43%
50%
0%
24%
54%
38%
34%
118%

n.a.

Most Recent Dist./Div.

Payout Ratios
Basic
2015E
2016E

R
18%
0%
47%
27%
3%
28%
88%
0%
32%
39%
0%
29%
36%
32%
27%
88%

129%
120%
106%
80%
74%
153%
136%

R
150%
53%
114%
74%
182%
139%
130%
68%
92%
161%
96%
86%
134%
81%
113%
130%

R
113%
82%
97%
88%
81%
130%
93%
82%
93%
124%
122%
104%
112%
78%
105%
93%

110%
109%
106%
80%
74%
127%
136%

R
147%
53%
80%
70%
182%
139%
111%
68%
92%
144%
96%
86%
106%
81%
106%
111%

Total
Debt/CF
2014A 2015E

1.1x
2.6x
2.1x
1.0x
0.6x
1.4x
1.6x

R
111%
82%
73%
84%
81%
130%
76%
82%
93%
110%
122%
104%
93%
78%
99%
76%

1.6x
2.7x
2.9x
3.5x
0.8x
2.1x
2.0x

Bank Line
Drawn (%)
2016E
Current

1.3x
2.2x
2.2x
2.1x
0.5x
2.3x
2.4x

1.1x
2.8x
1.4x
4.2x
2.5x
1.5x
-0.4x
3.3x
2.4x
1.3x
2.1x
1.7x
1.6x
1.6x
1.9x
-0.4x

2.5x
7.3x
1.7x
4.3x
7.7x
1.8x
-0.3x
16.1x
3.6x
2.5x
6.9x
1.8x
2.6x
1.4x
3.8x
-0.3x

1.8x
7.6x
0.8x
3.8x
3.2x
1.8x
-0.5x
15.4x
2.6x
2.0x
4.5x
2.3x
1.6x
0.9x
3.1x
-0.5x

0%
5%
26%
65%
-1%
35%
0%

1-Yr.
Target
Price

Expected
($ per Share)
Running
Return Current Annualized Yield

$30.00
$25.00
$10.50
$45.00
$17.50
$37.00
$15.00

R
36%
49%
13%
15%
0%
44%
-42%
87%
73%
37%
56%
68%
58%
82%
37%
-42%

24%
10%
37%
27%
14%
24%
3%

R
$5.50
$1.15
$14.00
$4.50
$3.00
$42.00
$37.00
$0.25
$4.00
$11.50
$11.00
$1.00
$69.00
$18.50

R
6%
-9%
58%
13%
3%
22%
17%
-30%
15%
13%
22%
38%
22%
28%
17%
17%

B. Forward Strip Pricing Assumptions (as at 04/24/15)

Share
Cash Flow from Operations
Price ($) ($ per Share, basic) Per Share Growth
04/24/15
2015E
2016E 2015E 2016E

ARC
$25.10
Baytex
$23.75
Bonavista
$7.95
Bonterra
$36.83
Cardinal
$16.12
Crescent Point
$32.10
Enerplus
$15.17
Freehold *
R
Journey
$5.45
Lightstream
$1.26
Northern Blizzard
$9.49
Pengrowth
$4.18
Penn West
$2.95
Peyto
$35.56
PrairieSky *
$31.68
Spyglass
$0.36
Surge
$3.75
TORC
$10.64
Trilogy
$8.98
Twin Butte
$0.81
Vermilion
$58.75
Whitecap
$15.04
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

$2.30
$3.45
$1.89
$3.93
$1.74
$4.34
$2.93
R
$1.33
$1.14
$1.66
$0.94
$0.71
$3.97
$1.14
$0.21
$0.82
$1.36
$0.94
$0.53
$4.95
$2.09

$2.55
$3.29
$1.81
$4.94
$1.74
$3.99
$2.43
R
$1.37
$0.82
$1.76
$0.74
$1.13
$4.04
$1.34
$0.14
$0.85
$1.30
$1.03
$0.37
$6.24
$2.17

-35.1%
-41.5%
-29.6%
-42.1%
-17.7%
-24.5%
-30.3%
R
-48.0%
-60.1%
-36.2%
-2.1%
-62.4%
-8.1%
-44.0%
-53.8%
-33.2%
-31.0%
-66.4%
-11.2%
-35.1%
-0.6%
-33.5%

10.6%
-4.8%
-4.6%
25.7%
-0.5%
-8.1%
-17.0%
R
2.6%
-28.1%
5.8%
-20.6%
59.3%
1.7%
17.5%
-35.2%
3.4%
-4.0%
9.8%
-31.2%
25.9%
4.1%
-0.3%
nm 17.5%

2015E 2016E
CDPS CDPS

$1.20
$1.20
$0.42
$1.80
$0.84
$2.76
$0.72
R
$0.30
$0.00
$0.96
$0.26
$0.04
$1.32
$1.09
$0.00
$0.30
$0.54
$0.00
$0.12
$2.58
$0.75

$1.20
$1.20
$0.42
$1.80
$0.84
$2.76
$0.60
R
$0.30
$0.00
$0.96
$0.24
$0.04
$1.32
$1.04
$0.00
$0.30
$0.54
$0.00
$0.12
$2.58
$0.75

11.7x
8.2x
6.3x
11.4x
9.3x
8.6x
6.5x
R
5.4x
5.3x
6.3x
6.8x
7.0x
10.0x
27.7x
6.4x
6.6x
9.1x
11.8x
3.0x
12.8x
8.0x
8.0x
27.7x

10.8x
4.8% 4.8%
8.8x
5.1% 5.1%
6.4x
5.3% 5.3%
9.0x
4.9% 4.9%
9.4x
5.2% 5.2%
9.6x
8.6% 8.6%
8.1x
4.7% 4.0%
R
R
R
5.5x
5.5% 5.5%
6.6x
0.0% 0.0%
5.8x
10.1% 10.1%
8.2x
6.2% 5.7%
5.3x
1.4% 1.4%
10.2x
3.7% 3.7%
23.4x
3.4% 3.3%
8.7x
0.0% 0.0%
6.5x
8.0% 8.0%
9.1x
5.1% 5.1%
11.2x
0.0% 0.0%
4.4x
14.8% 14.8%
10.4x
4.4% 4.4%
7.6x
5.0% 5.0%
8.1x
5.1% 5.1%
23.4x
3.4% 3.3%

Net Asset Value (NAV)

Core
Risked P/Core P/Risked
NAV ($) NAV ($)
NAV
NAV

$4.80
$6.83
$2.97
$7.85
$8.22
$9.12
$5.03
R
$2.74
-$1.64
$7.87
$1.03
-$1.17
$7.24
$24.61
-$0.19
$2.24
$4.73
$0.99
$0.62
$34.19
$7.07

$21.56
$12.75
$5.56
$29.03
$9.20
$25.40
$7.64
R
$2.89
n.a.
$9.70
$2.59
$1.70
$20.82
n.a.
n.a.
$2.97
$5.75
$4.71
$1.00
$43.03
$11.79

523%
348%
267%
469%
196%
352%
302%
R
199%
-77%
121%
407%
-253%
491%
129%
nm
167%
225%
910%
132%
172%
213%
258%

116%
186%
143%
127%
175%
126%
199%

nm

n.a.

Total
2015E
2016E

Total
(incl. DRIP)
2015E
2016E

52%
35%
21%
46%
47%
64%
25%

148%
114%
96%
101%
77%
137%
104%

122%
103%
96%
101%
77%
115%
104%

R
189%
nm
98%
161%
174%
171%
n.a.
nm
126%
185%
191%
81%
137%
128%
143%

R
22%
0%
58%
28%
6%
33%
114%
0%
37%
39%
0%
23%
52%
36%
31%
114%

R
21%
0%
55%
32%
4%
33%
96%
0%
35%
41%
0%
33%
41%
35%
31%
96%

143%
137%
123%
87%
87%
160%
155%
R

126%
49%
106%
67%
153%
137%
126%
29%
78%
127%
85%
81%
129%
77%
101%
126%

R
134%
99%
113%
106%
95%
150%
101%
57%
103%
127%
153%
118%
128%
84%
118%
101%

BRENT (US$/bbl)
WTI (US$/bbl)
Ed. Par (C$/bbl)
WCS Heavy (C$/bbl)
NYMEX (US$/mcf)
Natural Gas (C$/mcf)
F/X (US$/C$)

2013A

$108.82
$97.96
$93.46
$75.33
$3.72
$3.18
$0.97

$98.84
$93.03
$94.62
$82.32
$4.35
$4.47
$0.91

$61.00
$52.50
$57.76
$48.26
$2.75
$2.73
$0.81

$80.00
$70.00
$75.29
$65.06
$3.50
$3.53
$0.85

LT

$90.00
$80.00
$87.06
$76.24
$4.00
$4.00
$0.85

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

2013A
BRENT (US$/bbl) $108.82
WTI (US$/bbl)
$97.96
Ed. Par (C$/bbl)
$93.46
WCS Heavy (C$/bbl) $75.33
NYMEX (US$/mcf)
$3.72
Natural Gas (C$/mcf) $3.18
F/X (US$/C$)
$0.97

Forward Strip
2014A 2015E

$98.90
$92.90
$94.07
$81.04
$4.27
$4.45
$0.91

$62.20
$56.20
$63.33
$50.71
$2.72
$2.68
$0.82

2016E

$70.10
$63.50
$71.47
$59.62
$3.06
$2.91
$0.82

2017E

$72.50
$65.40
$73.80
$61.58
$3.32
$3.18
$0.82

120%
123%
123%
87%
87%
132%
155%
R

124%
49%
76%
64%
153%
137%
107%
29%
78%
113%
85%
81%
104%
77%
94%
107%

Pricing Assumptions:
CIBC Base Assumptions
2014A
2015E 2016E

$1.20
$1.20
$0.42
$1.80
$0.75
$2.76
$0.60
R
$0.30
$0.00
$0.96
$0.24
$0.04
$1.32
$1.09
$0.00
$0.30
$0.40
$0.00
$0.12
$2.58
$0.75

4.8%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
4.7%
8.6%
4.0%
R
5.5%
0.0%
10.1%
5.7%
1.4%
3.7%
3.4%
0.0%
8.0%
3.7%
0.0%
14.8%
4.4%
5.0%
5.0%
3.4%

Most Recent Dist./Div.

Payout Ratios
Basic
2015E
2016E

47%
36%
22%
36%
47%
69%
25%

$0.10
$0.10
$0.04
$0.15
$0.06
$0.23
$0.05
R
$0.03
$0.00
$0.08
$0.02
$0.00
$0.11
$0.09
$0.00
$0.03
$0.03
$0.00
$0.01
$0.22
$0.06

Notes: R=Restricted. Source: Bloomberg; Company Reports; CIBC World Markets

R
132%
99%
82%
100%
95%
150%
83%
57%
103%
113%
153%
118%
104%
84%
111%
83%

Total
Debt/CF
2014A 2015E

1.1x
2.6x
2.1x
1.0x
0.6x
1.4x
1.6x
R
1.1x
2.8x
1.4x
4.2x
2.5x
1.5x
-0.4x
3.3x
2.4x
1.3x
2.1x
1.7x
1.6x
1.6x
1.9x
-0.4x

1.4x
2.5x
2.7x
3.0x
0.6x
1.9x
1.9x
R
1.9x
6.6x
1.5x
3.8x
6.3x
1.7x
-0.3x
6.4x
2.9x
1.8x
6.0x
1.7x
2.5x
1.3x
2.9x
-0.3x

Bank Line
Drawn (%)
2016E
Current

1.5x
2.7x
2.7x
2.3x
0.6x
2.4x
2.8x
R
2.2x
9.2x
1.0x
4.7x
3.8x
2.2x
-0.5x
9.5x
2.8x
1.9x
5.8x
2.6x
2.0x
1.0x
3.2x
-0.5x

0%
5%
26%
65%
-1%
35%
0%

Implied
Target
Price

Potential
Return

$30.00
$25.00
$10.50
$45.00
$17.50
$37.00
$15.00

24%
10%
37%
27%
13%
24%
3%

R
36%
49%
13%
15%
0%
44%
-42%
87%
73%
37%
56%
68%
58%
82%
37%
-42%

R
$5.50
$1.15
$14.00
$4.50
$3.00
$42.00
$37.00
$0.25
$4.00
$11.50
$11.00
$1.00
$69.00
$18.50

R
6%
-9%
58%
13%
3%
22%
17%
-30%
15%
12%
22%
38%
22%
28%
17%
17%

($ per Share)
Running
Current Annualized Yield

$0.10
$0.10
$0.04
$0.15
$0.06
$0.23
$0.05
R
$0.03
$0.00
$0.08
$0.02
$0.00
$0.11
$0.09
$0.00
$0.03
$0.03
$0.00
$0.01
$0.22
$0.06

$1.20
$1.20
$0.42
$1.80
$0.75
$2.76
$0.60
R
$0.30
$0.00
$0.96
$0.24
$0.04
$1.32
$1.09
$0.00
$0.30
$0.40
$0.00
$0.12
$2.58
$0.75

4.8%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
4.7%
8.6%
4.0%
R
5.5%
0.0%
10.1%
5.7%
1.4%
3.7%
3.4%
0.0%
8.0%
3.7%
0.0%
14.8%
4.4%
5.0%
5.0%
3.4%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 20. Dividend Paying E&Ps Base vs Forward Strip Pricing Assumptions

21

CIBC Base Price Case

Company

Share
O/S1

Mkt. Cap.

Net Bank
Debt1

Other
Debt1

Enterprise
Value

CFPS2

P/CF

EV/DACF

Development Capex ($MM)

Total Payout (%)

Current
Unutilized 12 Month Target

D/CF

Ticker

Price

(MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

Bellatrix Exploration

BXE

Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

$3.81
$8.12
$0.96
$5.17
$7.44
$8.95
$2.65
$8.39

192.0
152.2
211.0
140.1
89.0
157.7
199.7
R

$731
$1,236
$203
$724
$662
$1,412
$529
R

$695
$614
$22
$90
$181
$191
$642
R

$0
$0
$60
$150
$0
$0
$200
R

$1,426
$1,850
$285
$964
$843
$1,603
$1,371
R

$1.46
$1.97
$0.33
$1.39
$1.95
$0.93
$1.83
R

$0.67
$1.03
$0.22
$0.75
$1.41
$0.62
$0.71
R

$1.06
$1.77
$0.32
$1.09
$1.90
$0.96
$1.15
R

2.6x
4.1x
2.9x
3.7x
3.8x
9.6x
1.5x
R

5.7x
7.9x
4.3x
6.9x
5.3x
14.4x
3.7x
R

3.6x
4.6x
3.0x
4.7x
3.9x
9.3x
2.3x
R

4.7x
5.6x
3.4x
5.1x
4.7x
13.0x
3.6x
R

9.1x
10.2x
5.5x
8.4x
6.1x
16.6x
7.4x
R

6.6x
6.7x
4.8x
6.4x
4.7x
10.7x
4.9x
R

$516
$398
$180
$307
$274
$251
$404
R

$200
$267
$60
$237
$114
$150
$182
R

$350
$450
$135
$296
$170
$275
$200
R

190%
132%
255%
178%
158%
218%
121%
R

156%
168%
127%
230%
90%
161%
128%
R

171%
166%
200%
192%
100%
180%
85%
R

2.4x
1.8x
1.0x
1.5x
1.0x
0.9x
2.5x
R

5.6x
4.2x
1.8x
2.6x
1.2x
2.3x
6.2x
R

4.2x
3.1x
2.3x
2.5x
0.9x
2.2x
3.6x
R

49%
33%
29%
25%
22%
12%
61%
R

16%
28%
100%
89%
52%
72%
23%
R

$3.65
$8.50
$1.00
$6.00
$8.25
$10.25
$2.75
R

-4%
5%
4%
16%
11%
15%
4%
R

SP
SO
SU
SP
SO
SO
SP
R

$6.90
$36.73
$0.99
$9.17
$3.48
$20.65

99.5
104.8
149.8
194.1
122.1
245.0

$686
$3,851
$148
$1,780
$425
$5,060

$22
-$194
-$216
$183
$152
-$388

$0
$869
$310
$0
$0
$868

$708
$4,526
$242
$1,963
$577
$5,540

$0.97
$1.27
$0.52
$1.19
$1.30
$1.46

$0.42
$1.98
$0.09
$0.81
$0.73
$1.67

$0.94
$5.45
$0.21
$1.16
$1.16
$3.25

7.1x
28.9x
1.9x
7.7x
2.7x
14.2x

16.6x
18.6x
11.6x
11.3x
4.7x
12.3x

7.3x
6.7x
4.6x
7.9x
3.0x
6.3x

7.6x
22.1x
1.8x
8.5x
3.3x
13.3x

17.9x
15.0x
6.3x
11.9x
5.9x
11.6x

9.5x
7.1x
4.6x
8.1x
3.9x
7.1x

$263
$911
$117
$274
$187
$1,120

$104
$400
$78
$175
$98
$1,350

$300
$850
$65
$175
$175
$1,600

296%
709%
145%
123%
114%
342%

250%
192%
609%
110%
107%
297%

318%
148%
197%
76%
121%
181%

0.0x
11.6x
4.2x
0.6x
0.8x
0.5x

1.6x
3.5x
8.2x
1.2x
1.5x
2.3x

2.9x
1.7x
4.1x
0.5x
1.2x
2.1x

3%
15%
39%
9%
26%
9%

100%
25%
83%
67%
28%
100%

$10.00
$43.00
$1.00
$10.50
$4.00
$23.50

45%
17%
1%
15%
15%
14%

SO
SO
SP
SO
SP
SO

$17,448

$1,995

$2,457

$21,899

7.0x

9.5x

5.2x

7.4x

10.2x

6.5x

$5,202

$3,414

$5,041

229%

202%

164%

2.2x

3.2x

2.4x

26%

60%

$10.18

12%

Crew Energy

CR

DeeThree Exploration

DTX

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Legacy Oil & Gas

LEG

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

VII

Group Total/Average

Company
Bellatrix Exploration

Upside NAV
P/RNAV7 Unrisked

P+P

BXE

$2.80
$8.89
$0.68
$4.22
$6.74
$6.22
$4.09
R

136%
91%
141%
122%
110%
144%
65%
R

$4.07
$8.88
$1.09
$5.62
$8.52
$8.92
$4.32
R

94%
91%
88%
92%
87%
100%
61%
R

$8.47
$26.09
$0.21
$5.90
$2.37
$18.56

81%
141%
480%
156%
147%
111%

$9.91
$39.05
$1.69
$7.58
$3.80
$19.65

70%
94%
59%
121%
92%
105%

Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

Crew Energy

CR

DeeThree Exploration

DTX

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Legacy Oil & Gas

LEG

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

Core NAV
P/CNAV7

Ticker

VII

Average

Risked

148%

89%

Reserves Metrics6

Hedging (Avg. 12 Mth Out)

Production Volumes (Boe/d)

Production EV/Boe/d9

Cash
Yield (%)

% Gas

PPSG Yield (%)

Debt/EV Bank Line

Operating Netbacks ($/Boe)

Price

Cash Netbacks ($/Boe)

P/URNAV7

EV/Boe8

RLI

Oil (Boe/d)

Gas (Mcf/d)

Gain / (Loss)

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2015E

15E/14E

16E/15E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

$11.37
$30.83
$3.07
$12.63
$15.89
$19.58
$12.86
R

34%
26%
31%
41%
47%
46%
21%
R

$5.70
$3.98
$2.41
$4.37
$16.27
$11.02
$8.90
R

16.0
33.9
31.1
29.0
11.1
17.5
16.5
R

2,742
250
0
-238
2,500
559
1,813
R

121.62
5.55
21.93
37.69
1.30
0.00
0.37
R

15.66
1.22
6.90
47.87
27.22
7.66
15.42
R

38,065
33,734
10,932
24,204
11,325
12,757
23,471
R

43,010
39,585
11,500
21,875
12,600
20,000
23,300
R

43,800
45,955
12,630
28,450
13,815
23,625
23,000
R

35,967
52,817
25,092
40,567
73,583
118,862
58,696
R

33,577
47,935
25,036
45,186
65,090
81,445
60,425
R

36,284
45,265
28,178
38,880
59,367
74,138
59,914
R

67%
84%
85%
55%
20%
66%
12%
R

69%
85%
81%
63%
21%
59%
15%
R

68%
85%
81%
65%
19%
59%
15%
R

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
R

9%
14%
5%
-19%
8%
28%
-10%
R

2%
16%
10%
27%
10%
12%
-1%
R

$22.70
$27.79
$21.69
$23.89
$45.10
$25.81
$46.81
R

$11.69
$14.39
$14.34
$16.66
$30.53
$13.63
$24.49
R

$16.68
$19.90
$18.01
$18.61
$36.56
$19.80
$35.84
R

$19.49
$24.40
$17.71
$19.48
$41.90
$24.81
$39.05
R

$8.14
$10.99
$11.24
$12.89
$27.65
$12.75
$16.76
R

$12.78
$16.25
$14.59
$14.77
$33.62
$17.63
$27.79
R

$26.10
$69.92
$3.20
$11.33
$5.60
$35.79

26%
53%
31%
81%
62%
58%

$1.45
$10.32
$2.98
$29.58
$13.76
$7.03

98.2
27.7
12.2
13.9
9.3
90.3

0
500
1,149
725
0
10,425

14.23
1.60
68.92
0.12
8.54
62.94

4.51
4.36
23.49
7.31
9.73
142.83

13,192
24,524
20,546
10,755
11,783
31,136

16,000
57,000
18,958
13,500
13,500
59,315

22,900
73,350
17,760
14,695
16,000
98,825

52,202 47,035 41,883

179,064 80,304 66,221
9,955 13,308 16,064
177,857 145,483 129,806
47,150 41,627 37,003
167,594 102,957 69,672

89%
75%
83%
4%
44%
42%

92%
60%
82%
3%
55%
44%

91%
50%
81%
3%
57%
44%

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

11%
124%
-8%
16%
14%
55%

43%
29%
-6%
9%
19%
67%

$20.73
$25.04
$18.63
$64.52
$40.89
$35.95

$8.85
$15.90
$7.54
$35.20
$21.12
$25.93

$13.33
$26.69
$13.23
$47.84
$27.02
$27.83

$18.47
$14.35
$10.77
$56.49
$38.16
$28.86

$7.13
$10.02
$1.84
$32.37
$18.48
$20.96

$11.27
$21.43
$5.08
$43.03
$24.75
$24.41

43%

$9.06

31.3

79,954

56%

56%

55%

0%

19%

18%

$32.27

$18.48

$24.72

$27.23

$14.71 $20.57

60,724

54,052

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.

acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital, as of Q1 2015

5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.

9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).

2. Cash flow per diluted share.

6. Based on 2P adjusted for acquisitions and dispositions. RLI based on Q4/14E production.

3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Return Rating

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

22

Exhibit 21. Junior E&Ps - Comparables

Forward Strip Case

Share
O/S1
Ticker

Price

(MM)

Bellatrix Exploration

Company

BXE

Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

VII

$3.81
$8.12
$0.96
$5.17
$7.44
$8.95
$2.65
R
$6.90
$36.73
$0.99
$9.17
$3.48
$20.65

192.0
152.2
211.0
140.1
89.0
157.7
199.7
R
99.5
104.8
149.8
194.1
122.1
245.0

Ticker

P+P

BXE

$0.89
$6.49
$0.14
$2.20
$4.96
$4.33
$2.23
R
$5.28
$19.19
-$0.40
$4.65
$1.74
$14.75

Crew Energy

CR

DeeThree Exploration

DTX

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Legacy Oil & Gas

LEG

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

Group Total/Average

Company
Bellatrix Exploration
Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

Crew Energy

CR

DeeThree Exploration

DTX

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Legacy Oil & Gas

LEG

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

VII

Core NAV
P/CNAV7

Average

428%
125%
667%
235%
150%
207%
119%
R
131%
191%
-250%
197%
200%
140%
195%

Mkt. Cap.
($MM)

Net Bank
Debt1

Other
Debt1

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

$699
$612
$23
$91
$185
$190
$651
R
$22
-$185
-$214
$189
$155
-$396
$2,021

$0
$0
$60
$150
$0
$0
$200
R
$0
$869
$310
$0
$0
$868
$2,456

$1,430
$1,848
$286
$965
$847
$1,601
$1,381
R
$709
$4,534
$244
$1,969
$580
$5,531
$21,925

$1.46
$1.97
$0.33
$1.39
$1.95
$0.93
$1.83
R
$0.97
$1.27
$0.52
$1.19
$1.30
$1.46

$0.73
$1.21
$0.24
$0.79
$1.55
$0.72
$0.88
R
$0.42
$2.51
$0.11
$0.94
$0.82
$1.80

$0.86
$1.57
$0.25
$0.86
$1.74
$0.80
$1.03
R
$0.67
$4.53
$0.10
$1.08
$1.02
$2.90

2.6x
4.1x
2.9x
3.7x
3.8x
9.6x
1.5x
R
7.1x
28.9x
1.9x
7.7x
2.7x
14.2x
7.0x

5.2x
6.7x
4.1x
6.6x
4.8x
12.4x
3.0x
R
16.4x
14.6x
9.3x
9.8x
4.3x
11.5x
8.4x

4.4x
5.2x
3.9x
6.0x
4.3x
11.1x
2.6x
R
10.3x
8.1x
9.9x
8.5x
3.4x
7.1x
6.5x

4.7x
5.6x
3.4x
5.1x
4.7x
13.0x
3.6x
R
7.6x
22.1x
1.8x
8.5x
3.3x
13.3x
7.4x

8.4x
8.7x
5.2x
8.0x
5.5x
14.3x
6.2x
R
17.7x
12.5x
5.7x
10.2x
5.2x
10.9x
9.1x

8.0x
7.5x
6.1x
8.1x
5.1x
12.7x
5.3x
R
13.1x
8.4x
6.8x
8.7x
4.5x
7.9x
7.9x

$516
$398
$180
$307
$274
$251
$404
R
$263
$911
$117
$274
$187
$1,120
$5,202

$200
$267
$60
$237
$114
$150
$182
R
$104
$400
$78
$175
$98
$1,350
$3,414

$350
$450
$135
$296
$170
$275
$200
R
$300
$850
$65
$175
$175
$1,600
$5,041

190%
132%
255%
178%
158%
218%
121%
R
296%
709%
145%
123%
114%
342%
229%

143%
143%
120%
219%
81%
139%
103%
R
246%
151%
487%
95%
96%
277%
177%

212%
187%
254%
245%
109%
215%
95%
R
443%
178%
419%
81%
137%
203%
214%

2.4x
1.8x
1.0x
1.5x
1.0x
0.9x
2.5x
R
0.0x
11.6x
4.2x
0.6x
0.8x
0.5x
2.2x

5.0x
3.4x
1.7x
2.4x
1.0x
1.9x
4.8x
R
1.6x
2.5x
6.3x
0.9x
1.2x
2.1x
2.7x

Upside NAV
P/RNAV7 Unrisked

P/URNAV7

$731
$1,236
$203
$724
$662
$1,412
$529
R
$686
$3,851
$148
$1,780
$425
$5,060
$17,448

Risked

$1.83
$6.18
$0.52
$1.36
$5.47
$5.72
$2.42
R
$5.79
$27.92
$0.76
$5.72
$2.72
$14.76

208%
131%
183%
381%
136%
156%
109%
R
119%
132%
129%
160%
128%
140%
163%

$6.77
$23.15
$1.78
$7.12
$10.09
$12.79
$8.50
R
$15.27
$49.37
$1.82
$8.30
$3.94
$27.90

Enterprise
Value

56%
35%
54%
73%
74%
70%
31%
R
45%
74%
54%
110%
88%
74%
65%

CFPS2

Reserves Metrics6
EV/Boe8
RLI

$5.72
$3.97
$2.42
$4.38
$16.35
$11.01
$8.96
R
$1.45
$10.34
$3.00
$29.68
$13.82
$7.01
$9.08

16.0
33.9
31.1
29.0
11.1
17.5
16.5
R
98.2
27.7
12.2
13.9
9.3
90.3
31.3

P/CF

Hedging (Avg. 12 Mth Out)

EV/DACF

Production Volumes (Boe/d)

Development Capex ($MM)

Production EV/Boe/d9

Total Payout (%)

Cash
Yield (%)

% Gas

D/CF

PPSG Yield (%)

Current
Unutilized 12 Month Target
2016E Debt/EV Bank Line
Price Return Rating
5.4x
3.5x
3.1x
3.4x
1.0x
2.7x
4.0x
R
4.4x
2.2x
9.8x
0.5x
1.4x
2.4x
3.4x

49%
33%
29%
25%
22%
12%
62%
R
3%
15%
39%
10%
27%
9%
26%

16%
29%
100%
88%
51%
71%
21%
R
100%
24%
81%
65%
26%
100%
59%

Operating Netbacks ($/Boe)

$3.65
$8.50
$1.10
$6.25
$8.25
$10.25
$2.75
R
$10.00
$40.00
$1.00
$8.00
$4.65
$23.75
$9.86

SP
SO
SU
SP
SO
SO
SP
R
SO
SO
SP
SO
SP
SO

Cash Netbacks ($/Boe)

Oil (Boe/d)

Gas (Mcf/d)

Gain / (Loss)

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2015E

15E/14E

16E/15E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2,742
250
0
-238
2,500
559
1,813
R
0
500
1,149
725
0
10,425

121.62
5.55
21.93
37.69
1.30
0.00
0.37
R
14.23
1.60
68.92
0.12
8.54
62.94

14.36
1.22
7.25
42.52
23.54
7.07
14.61
R
4.51
4.36
21.06
7.17
9.92
129.25

38,065
33,734
10,932
24,204
11,325
12,757
23,471
R
13,192
24,524
20,546
10,755
11,783
31,136

43,010
39,585
11,500
21,875
12,600
20,000
23,300
R
16,000
57,000
18,958
13,500
13,500
59,315

43,800
45,955
12,630
28,450
13,815
23,625
23,000
R
22,900
73,350
17,760
14,695
16,000
98,825

35,967
52,817
25,092
40,567
73,583
118,862
58,696
R
52,202
179,064
9,955
177,857
47,150
167,594
79,954

33,296
47,228
24,807
44,935
64,058
80,715
58,968
R
47,002
79,317
13,141
143,613
40,848
102,329
60,020

36,919
45,316
29,102
39,853
59,453
74,569
59,472
R
43,029
66,776
16,871
129,166
37,411
70,430
54,490

67%
84%
85%
55%
20%
66%
12%
R
89%
75%
83%
4%
44%
42%
56%

69%
85%
81%
63%
21%
59%
15%
R
92%
60%
82%
3%
55%
44%
56%

68%
85%
81%
65%
19%
59%
15%
R
91%
50%
81%
3%
57%
44%
55%

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
R
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

9%
14%
5%
-19%
8%
28%
-10%
R
11%
124%
-8%
16%
14%
55%
19%

2%
16%
10%
27%
10%
12%
-1%
R
43%
29%
-6%
9%
19%
67%
18%

$22.70
$27.79
$21.69
$23.89
$45.10
$25.81
$46.81
R
$20.73
$25.04
$18.63
$64.52
$40.89
$35.95
$32.27

$12.45
$16.29
$14.96
$17.33
$33.38
$15.64
$28.44
R
$8.94
$18.57
$8.23
$40.58
$23.23
$27.42
$20.42

$14.20
$18.05
$14.96
$15.48
$33.67
$16.90
$32.85
R
$10.20
$23.03
$10.57
$44.34
$24.08
$25.22
$21.81

$19.49
$24.40
$17.71
$19.48
$41.90
$24.81
$39.05
R
$18.47
$14.35
$10.77
$56.49
$38.16
$28.86
$27.23

$8.91
$12.93
$11.87
$13.58
$30.48
$14.75
$20.75
R
$7.22
$12.72
$2.30
$37.50
$20.62
$22.50
$16.63

$10.29
$14.45
$11.50
$11.58
$30.81
$14.76
$24.96
R
$8.08
$17.81
$2.38
$40.09
$21.84
$21.76
$17.72

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.

acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital, as of Q1 2015

5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.

9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).

2. Cash flow per diluted share.

6. Based on 2P adjusted for acquisitions and dispositions. RLI based on Q4/14E production.

3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

-4%
5%
15%
21%
11%
15%
4%
R
45%
9%
1%
-13%
34%
15%
12%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 22. Junior E&Ps Comparables (continued)

23

CIBC Base Price Case

Company

Bankers Petroleum Ltd.

Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy

Pacific Rubiales Energy

Petroamerica Oil
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

Share
O/S 1.

Cash

Mkt. Cap.

Net Bank
Debt1

Other
Debt1

Enterprise
Value

Funds Flow ($MM)

Debt/Cash Flow

12 Month Target

Yield (%)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

Price

Return 4.

Rating 5.

BNK
CNE
GTE
PRE
PTA
PXT
TGL

$3.57
$3.63
$4.39
$3.88
$0.12
R
$5.41

261.1
107.8
286.2
313.3
872.5
R
75.2

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
R
4.6%

$932
$391
$1,256
$1,215
$105
R
$407

-$103
$188
-$240
$4,823
-$18
R
-$230

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
R
$69

$804
$625
$958
$7,207
$82
R
$208

$1.09
$0.68
$1.23
$5.86
$0.18
R
$1.76

$1.07
$0.84
$1.08
$6.41
$0.06
R
$1.46

$0.56
$0.58
$0.64
$4.02
$0.02
R
$0.46

$0.79
$0.90
$0.84
$5.19
$0.01
R
$0.78

2.8x
5.7x
2.7x
2.7x
0.2x
R
1.6x

2.5x
5.1x
2.9x
2.3x
1.1x
R
1.6x

4.3x
6.8x
4.2x
3.0x
3.7x
R
4.3x

3.4x
4.9x
3.4x
2.6x
9.3x
R
3.5x

$234
$72
$374
$2,179
$74
R
$87

$291
$133
$420
$2,395
$46
R
$108

$180
$175
$166
$1,200
$25
R
$42

$220
$120
$240
$1,600
$60
R
$67

$280
$51
$353
$1,913
$109
R
$139

$284
$76
$311
$2,021
$63
R
$120

$147
$65
$183
$1,259
$15
R
$37

$207
$105
$239
$1,626
$12
R
$58

-0.1x
1.6x
-0.7x
2.3x
-0.4x
R
-1.1x

-0.4x
1.0x
-0.8x
2.4x
-0.3x
R
-1.3x

-0.5x
3.4x
-1.4x
3.7x
-0.6x
R
-3.8x

-0.3x
2.3x
-1.1x
2.9x
3.4x
R
-2.0x

$5.00
$4.75
$5.00
$2.00
$0.10
R
$5.50

140%
131%
114%
52%
83%
R
106%

SO
SO
SP
SU
SU
R
SP

$4,307

$4,420

$69

$9,884

2.6x

2.6x

4.4x

4.5x

$3,019

$3,393

$1,788

$2,307

$2,845

$2,876

$1,706

$2,247

0.3x

0.1x

0.1x

0.9x

13A/12A

14E/13A

15E/14E

16E/15E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

Risked

Group Total/Average

Development Capex ($MM)

(MM)

Core NAV
Bankers Petroleum Ltd.
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Pacific Rubiales Energy
Petroamerica Oil
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

EV/DACF 3.

Price

Group Total/Average

Company

CFPS 2

Symbol

Exploration NAV

Reserves 6.
EV/Boe 8.

Reserves 6.

Production

Reserve Life Index

Volumes (Boe/d)

Production
EV/Boe/d 9.

% Gas

PPSG +

Operating

Yield (%)

104%
Cash Flow

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Symbol

P+P

P/NAV

RENAV

P/RENAV

Proven

P+P

Proven

P+P

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2015E

2016E

BNK
CNE
GTE
PRE
PTA
PXT
TGL

$4.26
$2.77
$4.82
$2.17
$0.13
R
$6.95

84%
131%
91%
178%
90%
R
78%

$4.45
$4.65
$6.24
$8.08
$0.16
R
$7.31

80%
78%
70%
48%
74%
R
74%

$5.48
$19.62
$17.53
$20.96
$13.17
R
$6.56

$3.46
$14.53
$7.23
$13.03
$7.60
R
$4.58

22.1
7.9
5.4
5.2
1.6
R
4.4

35.8
10.6
12.6
8.0
2.5
R
5.7

18,170
6,747
29,099
157,975
5,435
R
18,225

20,690
10,577
25,182
176,238
6,245
R
16,103

19,655
11,601
23,088
176,018
4,608
R
12,975

21,361
14,493
21,133
154,012
3,011
R
12,829

0%
28%
1%
6%
0%
R
0%

0%
63%
1%
11%
0%
R
0%

47,961
59,038
34,028
37,058
4,816
R
13,420

39,257
45,238
39,373
37,124
13,497
R
14,263

42,970
59,838
40,620
39,963
20,368
R
17,932

40,457
48,515
45,231
43,476
50,299
R
21,032

20%
-60%
22%
32%
na
R
3%

12%
30%
-14%
18%
14%
R
-13%

-6%
6%
-9%
4%
-26%
R
-20%

9%
25%
-8%
-12%
-35%
R
-1%

$47.73
$24.52
$53.80
$59.10
$78.71
R
$37.56

$45.07
$34.84
$49.66
$53.18
$49.15
R
$35.33

$24.98
$27.49
$28.25
$28.71
$29.29
R
$19.62

$31.03
$30.30
$39.67
$43.04
$44.42
R
$28.49

$41.69
$6.46
$36.36
$38.66
$43.78
R
$20.25

$41.32
$10.57
$32.86
$37.24
$30.24
R
$19.13

$20.49
$13.25
$21.67
$23.34
$12.59
R
$7.97

$26.51
$19.64
$30.99
$32.00
$18.77
R
$12.87

71%

$13.89

$8.41

7.8

12.5

6%

13%

32,720

31,459

36,948

41,502

3%

8%

-8%

-4%

$50.24

$44.54

$26.39

$36.16

$31.20

$28.56

$16.55

$23.46

109%

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent
acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital.
2. Cash flow per diluted share.
3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.
5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.
9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
6. PDP: Proved developed producing reserves; Proved: Proved reserves; P+P: Proved plus Probable reserves.
10. Enterprise value in $CAD per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

24

Exhibit 23. International E&Ps Comparables

Forward Strip Case

Company

Bankers Petroleum Ltd.

Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy

Pacific Rubiales Energy

Petroamerica Oil
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

Share
O/S 1.

Cash

Mkt. Cap.

Net Bank
Debt1

Other
Debt1

Enterprise
Value

Funds Flow ($MM)

Debt/Cash Flow

12 Month Target

Yield (%)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

Price

Return 4.

Rating 5.

BNK
CNE
GTE
PRE
PTA
PXT
TGL

$3.57
$3.63
$4.39
$3.88
$0.12
R
$5.41

261.1
107.8
286.2
313.3
872.5
R
75.2

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
R
4.5%

$932
$391
$1,256
$1,215
$105
R
$407

-$103
$188
-$240
$4,823
-$18
R
-$230

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
R
$69

$805
$622
$961
$7,148
$82
R
$210

$1.09
$0.68
$1.23
$5.86
$0.18
R
$1.76

$1.07
$0.84
$1.08
$6.41
$0.06
R
$1.46

$0.57
$0.58
$0.65
$4.11
$0.02
R
$0.47

$0.60
$0.89
$0.67
$4.24
$0.01
R
$0.56

2.8x
5.7x
2.7x
2.7x
0.2x
R
1.6x

2.5x
5.1x
2.9x
2.3x
1.1x
R
1.6x

4.3x
6.8x
4.1x
3.0x
3.6x
R
4.2x

4.5x
4.9x
4.3x
3.0x
14.9x
R
4.3x

$234
$72
$374
$2,179
$74
R
$87

$291
$133
$420
$2,395
$46
R
$108

$180
$175
$166
$1,200
$25
R
$42

$220
$120
$240
$1,600
$60
R
$67

$280
$51
$353
$1,913
$109
R
$139

$284
$76
$311
$2,021
$63
R
$120

$148
$65
$187
$1,287
$16
R
$38

$156
$103
$191
$1,328
$6
R
$45

-0.1x
1.6x
-0.7x
2.3x
-0.4x
R
-1.1x

-0.4x
1.0x
-0.8x
2.4x
-0.3x
R
-1.3x

-0.5x
3.4x
-1.4x
3.6x
-0.6x
R
-3.8x

0.0x
2.3x
-1.1x
3.7x
6.9x
R
-2.3x

$5.00
$4.75
$5.00
$2.00
$0.10
R
$5.50

140%
131%
114%
52%
83%
R
106%

SO
SO
SP
SU
SU
R
SP

$4,307

$4,420

$69

$9,829

2.6x

2.6x

4.3x

6.0x

$3,019

$3,393

$1,788

$2,307

$2,845

$2,876

$1,741

$1,830

0.3x

0.1x

0.1x

1.6x

Risked

Group Total/Average

Development Capex ($MM)

(MM)

Core NAV
Bankers Petroleum Ltd.
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Pacific Rubiales Energy
Petroamerica Oil
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

EV/DACF 3.

Price

Group Total/Average

Company

CFPS 2

Symbol

Exploration NAV

Reserves 6.
EV/Boe 8.

Reserves 6.

Production

Reserve Life Index

Volumes (Boe/d)

Production
EV/Boe/d 9.

% Gas

104%

PPSG +

Operating

Cash Flow

Yield (%)

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Symbol

P+P

P/NAV

RENAV

P/RENAV

Proven

P+P

Proven

P+P

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

13A/12A

14E/13A

15E/14E

16E/15E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

BNK
CNE
GTE
PRE
PTA
PXT
TGL

$2.72
$2.69
$4.09
-$1.06
$0.14
R
$6.02

131%
135%
107%
-366%
88%
R
90%

$2.84
$4.57
$4.98
$2.73
$0.17
R
$6.20

126%
80%
88%
142%
72%
R
87%

$5.49
$19.55
$17.58
$20.79
$13.21
R
$6.62

$3.47
$14.48
$7.25
$12.92
$7.62
R
$4.63

22.1
7.9
5.4
5.2
1.6
R
4.4

35.8
10.6
12.6
8.0
2.5
R
5.7

18,170
6,747
29,099
157,975
5,435
R
18,225

20,690
10,577
25,182
176,238
6,245
R
16,103

19,655
11,601
23,088
176,018
4,608
R
12,975

21,361
14,493
21,133
154,012
3,011
R
12,829

0%
28%
1%
6%
0%
R
0%

0%
63%
1%
11%
0%
R
0%

47,961
59,038
34,028
37,058
4,816
R
13,420

39,257
45,238
39,373
37,124
13,497
R
14,263

42,953
59,598
40,524
39,441
20,218
R
17,965

43,207
49,407
47,197
46,989
52,713
R
21,750

20%
-60%
22%
32%
na
R
3%

12%
30%
-14%
18%
14%
R
-13%

-6%
6%
-9%
4%
-26%
R
-20%

9%
25%
-8%
-11%
-35%
R
-1%

$47.73
$24.52
$53.80
$59.10
$78.71
R
$37.56

$45.07
$34.84
$49.66
$53.18
$49.15
R
$35.33

$25.11
$27.52
$28.81
$29.44
$29.94
R
$20.00

$24.72
$29.90
$32.99
$35.48
$36.67
R
$23.77

$41.69
$6.46
$36.36
$38.66
$43.78
R
$20.25

$41.32
$10.57
$32.86
$37.24
$30.24
R
$19.13

$20.63
$13.27
$22.19
$23.81
$13.17
R
$8.20

$19.96
$19.29
$24.78
$26.97
$11.80
R
$10.01

99%

$13.87

$8.40

7.8

12.5

6%

13%

32,720

31,459

36,783

43,544

3%

8%

-8%

-4%

$50.24

$44.54

$26.80

$30.59

$31.20

$28.56

$16.88

$18.80

31%

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent
acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital.
2. Cash flow per diluted share.
3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.
5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.
9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
6. PDP: Proved developed producing reserves; Proved: Proved reserves; P+P: Proved plus Probable reserves.
10. Enterprise value in $CAD per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Exhibit 24. International E&Ps Comparables (continued)

25

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Analyst Certification: Each CIBC World Markets research analyst named on the front page of this research report, or
at the beginning of any subsection hereof, hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed herein
accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of this
report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research analyst and (ii)
no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.
Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by CIBC World Markets are compensated from
revenues generated by various CIBC World Markets businesses, including the CIBC World Markets Investment Banking
Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from specific investment banking
transactions. CIBC World Markets generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from
executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, CIBC World Markets
generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that
such analyst covers.
In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report,
CIBC World Markets may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities
discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.
Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures
set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.:
Stock Prices as of 04/26/2015:
ARC Resources Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (ARX-TSX, C$25.10, Sector Outperformer)
Bankers Petroleum Ltd. (2g) (BNK-TSX, C$3.57, Sector Outperformer)
Baytex Energy Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (BTE-TSX, C$23.75, Sector Outperformer)
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (BXE-TSX, C$3.81, Sector Performer)
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (2g) (BIR-TSX, C$8.12, Sector Outperformer)
Black Diamond Group Limited (2g) (BDI-TSX, C$15.64, Sector Underperformer)
Bonavista Energy Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (BNP-TSX, C$7.95, Sector Outperformer)
Bonterra Energy Corp. (2g) (BNE-TSX, C$36.83, Sector Performer)
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (2g, 7) (CFW-TSX, C$9.88, Sector Outperformer)
Canacol Energy Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (CNE-TSX, C$3.63, Sector Outperformer)
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (2a, 2b, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 9) (CNQ-TSX, C$40.95, Sector Outperformer)
Canadian Oil Sands Limited (2g, 7) (COS-TSX, C$12.88, Sector Underperformer)
Canyon Services Group Inc. (2g) (FRC-TSX, C$8.14, Sector Outperformer)
Cardinal Energy Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (CJ-TSX, C$16.12, Sector Outperformer)
Cenovus Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 9) (CVE-TSX, C$23.34, Sector Performer)
Cequence Energy Ltd. (2g) (CQE-TSX, C$0.96, Sector Underperformer)
Crescent Point Energy Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (CPG-TSX, C$32.10, Sector Outperformer)
Crew Energy Inc. (2g) (CR-TSX, C$5.17, Sector Performer)
DeeThree Exploration Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (DTX-TSX, C$7.44, Sector Outperformer)
Encana Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 9) (ECA-NYSE, US$14.00, Sector Performer)
Enerflex Ltd. (2g, 7) (EFX-TSX, C$15.78, Sector Performer)
Enerplus Corporation (2g) (ERF-TSX, C$15.17, Sector Performer)
Ensign Energy Services Inc. (2g, 3a) (ESI-TSX, C$9.97, Sector Performer)
Freehold Royalties Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (FRU-TSX, C$17.82, Restricted)
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (2g) (GTE-TSX, C$4.39, Sector Performer)

26

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.: (Continued)
Stock Prices as of 04/26/2015:
Husky Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (HSE-TSX, C$27.86, Sector Performer)
Imperial Oil Limited (2g) (IMO-TSX, C$54.22, Sector Performer)
Journey Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (JOY-TSX, C$5.45, Sector Performer)
Kelt Exploration Ltd. (2g, 7) (KEL-TSX, C$8.95, Sector Outperformer)
Legacy Oil + Gas Inc. (2g) (LEG-TSX, C$2.65, Sector Performer)
Lightstream Resources Ltd. (2g) (LTS-TSX, C$1.26, Sector Underperformer)
Long Run Exploration Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (LRE-TSX, C$0.91, Sector Performer)
Mullen Group Ltd. (2g) (MTL-TSX, C$20.92, Sector Underperformer)
Northern Blizzard Resources Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (NBZ-TSX, C$9.49, Sector Outperformer)
NuVista Energy Ltd. (2g) (NVA-TSX, C$8.39, Restricted)
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. (2g) (PRE-TSX, C$3.88, Sector Underperformer)
Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PPY-TSX, C$6.90, Sector Outperformer)
Paramount Resources Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (POU-TSX, C$36.73, Sector Outperformer)
Parex Resources Inc. (2g) (PXT-TSX, C$9.28, Restricted)
Pason Systems Inc. (2g) (PSI-TSX, C$20.75, Sector Underperformer)
Pengrowth Energy Corporation (2g) (PGF-TSX, C$4.18, Sector Performer)
Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g, 7) (PWT-TSX, C$2.95, Sector Performer)
Perpetual Energy Inc. (2a, 2e, 2g) (PMT-TSX, C$0.99, Sector Performer)
Petroamerica Oil Corp. (2g) (PTA-V, C$0.12, Sector Underperformer)
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PEY-TSX, C$35.56, Sector Outperformer)
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (PSK-TSX, C$31.68, Sector Outperformer)
Precision Drilling Corporation (2g) (PD-TSX, C$8.36, Sector Outperformer)
Raging River Exploration Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (RRX-TSX, C$9.17, Sector Outperformer)
RMP Energy Inc. (2g) (RMP-TSX, C$3.48, Sector Performer)
Savanna Energy Services Corp. (2g) (SVY-TSX, C$2.08, Sector Performer)
SECURE Energy Services Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (SES-TSX, C$16.46, Sector Outperformer)
Seven Generations Energy Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (VII-TSX, C$20.65, Sector Outperformer)
Spyglass Resources Corp. (2g) (SGL-TSX, C$0.36, Sector Underperformer)
Suncor Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (SU-TSX, C$40.22, Sector Outperformer)
Surge Energy Inc. (2g) (SGY-TSX, C$3.75, Sector Performer)
Talisman Energy Inc. (2a, 2e, 2g, 7) (TLM-NYSE, US$7.89, Sector Performer)
TORC Oil & Gas Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g, 7) (TOG-TSX, C$10.64, Sector Outperformer)
Total Energy Services Inc. (2g, 3a, 3c) (TOT-TSX, C$14.60, Sector Performer)
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (2a, 2e, 2g) (TOU-TSX, C$41.79, Sector Outperformer)
TransGlobe Energy Corp. (2g) (TGL-TSX, C$5.41, Sector Performer)
Trican Well Service Ltd. (2g) (TCW-TSX, C$4.88, Sector Performer)
Trilogy Energy Corp. (2g) (TET-TSX, C$8.98, Sector Outperformer - Speculative)
Trinidad Drilling Ltd. (2g, 7) (TDG-TSX, C$5.12, Sector Outperformer)
Twin Butte Energy Ltd. (2g) (TBE-TSX, C$0.81, Sector Performer)
Vermilion Energy Inc. (2g, 7) (VET-TSX, C$58.75, Sector Outperformer)
Western Energy Services Corp. (2g) (WRG-TSX, C$6.89, Sector Outperformer)
Whitecap Resources Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (WCP-TSX, C$15.04, Sector Outperformer)
Important disclosure footnotes that correspond to the footnotes in this table may be found in the "Key to
Important Disclosure Footnotes" section of this report.

27

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Key to Important Disclosure Footnotes:

1
1a
1b
1c

CIBC
CIBC
CIBC
CIBC

2a

This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services
in the past 12 months.

2b

CIBC World Markets Corp. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in
the past 12 months.

2c
2d
2e
2f
2g
3a
3b
3c
4a
4b
4c
5a
5b
6a
6b
7
8
9

10

World Markets Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company.

WM Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company
WM Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company
WM Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company

CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
securities-related services in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
non-securities-related services in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
The CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common
equity securities.
A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Corp. research analyst who covers this company has a
long position in the common equity securities of this company.
The CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its
common equity securities.
A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental research analyst who covers this
company has a long position in the common equity securities of this company.
CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1%
or more of a class of equity securities issued by this company.
An executive of CIBC World Markets Inc. or any analyst involved in the preparation of this research report has
provided services to this company for remuneration in the past 12 months.
An executive committee member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), the parent
company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an
officer, director or advisory board member of this company or one of its subsidiaries.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC
World Markets Corp., has a significant credit relationship with this company.

11
12

The equity securities of this company are restricted voting shares.

The equity securities of this company are subordinate voting shares.

13
14

The equity securities of this company are non-voting shares.

The equity securities of this company are limited voting shares.

28

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

CIBC World Markets Inc. Stock Rating System

Abbreviation

Rating

Description

SO

Sector Outperformer

Stock is expected to outperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.

SP

Sector Performer

Stock is expected to perform in line with the sector during the next 12-18 months.

SU

Sector Underperformer

Stock is expected to underperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.

NR

Not Rated

CIBC World Markets does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock.

Restricted

CIBC World Markets is restricted (due to potential conflict of interest) from rating the stock.

Stock Ratings

Sector Weightings (note: Broader market averages refer to S&P 500 in the U.S. and S&P/TSX Composite in Canada.)
O

Overweight

Sector is expected to outperform the broader market averages.

Market Weight

Sector is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages.

Underweight

Sector is expected to underperform the broader market averages.

NA

None

Sector rating is not applicable.

"Speculative" indicates that an investment in this security involves a high amount of risk due to volatility and/or liquidity issues.

Ratings Distribution*: CIBC World Markets Inc. Coverage Universe

(as of 26 Apr 2015)

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

151

41.8%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

159

44.0%

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

146

96.7%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

156

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

38

10.5%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

34

98.1%
89.5%

Restricted

12

3.3%

Restricted

12

100.0%

*Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by CIBC World Markets Inc.
do not correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with NYSE and NASD rules, CIBC World
Markets Inc. has assigned buy ratings to securities rated Sector Outperformer, hold ratings to securities rated Sector Performer, and
sell ratings to securities rated Sector Underperformer without taking into consideration the analyst's sector weighting.

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - Dividend Corporations Coverage Universe

(as of 26 Apr 2015)
Sector Outperformer (Buy)

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships

Count

Percent

12

54.5%

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

12

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

31.8%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

9.1%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

4.5%

Restricted

100.0%

Oil & Gas - Dividend Corporations Sector includes the following tickers: ARX, BNE, BNP, BTE, CJ, CPG, ERF, FRU, JOY, LTS, NBZ, PEY,
PGF, PSK, PWT, SGL, SGY, TBE, TET, TOG, VET, WCP.

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - Intermediate & Junior Producers Coverage Universe
(as of 26 Apr 2015)

Count

Percent

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

46.7%

Inv. Banking Relationships

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

40.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

6.7%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

6.7%

Restricted

100.0%

Oil & Gas - Intermediate & Junior Producers Sector includes the following tickers: BIR, BXE, CQE, CR, DTX, KEL, LEG, LRE, NVA, PMT,
POU, PPY, RMP, RRX, VII.

29

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - International E&P Coverage Universe

(as of 26 Apr 2015)

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

28.6%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

28.6%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

Restricted

Inv. Banking Relationships

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

28.6%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

14.3%

Restricted

100.0%

Oil & Gas - International E&P Sector includes the following tickers: BNK, CNE, GTE, PRE, PTA, PXT, TGL.

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - Large Cap Coverage Universe

(as of 26 Apr 2015)

Count

Percent

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

33.3%

Inv. Banking Relationships

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

55.6%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

11.1%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Count

Percent

Oil & Gas - Large Cap Sector includes the following tickers: CNQ, COS, CVE, ECA, HSE, IMO, SU, TLM, TOU.

Ratings Distribution: Oilfield Services & Equipment Coverage Universe

(as of 26 Apr 2015)

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

42.9%

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

35.7%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

21.4%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Oilfield Services & Equipment Sector includes the following tickers: BDI, CFW, EFX, ESI, FRC, MTL, PD, PSI, SES, SVY, TCW, TDG,
TOT, WRG.

Important disclosures required by IIROC Rule 3400, can be obtained by visiting CIBC World Markets Inc. on the web at
http://researchcentral.cibcwm.com. Important disclosures for each issuer can be found using the "Coverage" tab on the
top left of the Research Central home page. Access to the system for rating investment opportunities and our
dissemination policy, can be found under 'Quick Links' on bottom right side of the Research Central homepage. These
important disclosures can also be obtained by writing to CIBC World Markets Inc., Brookfield Place, 161 Bay Street, 4th
Floor, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attention: Research Disclosures Request

30

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - April 27, 2015

CIBC World Markets Inc. Price Chart

For price and performance information charts required under NYSE and NASD rules, please visit CIBC on the web at
http://apps.cibcwm.com/sec2711 or write to CIBC World Markets Inc., Brookfield Place, 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor,
Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attn: Research Disclosure Chart Request.

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Legal Disclaimer
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC), the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc,
which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), (c) in Australia to wholesale clients only, CIBC Australia
Ltd, a company regulated by the ASIC with AFSL license number 240603 and ACN 000 067 256, and (d) in Japan, CIBC
World Markets (Japan) Inc., a registered Type 1 Financial product provider with the registration number Director General
of Kanto Finance Bureau #218 (collectively, CIBC World Markets) and (e) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World
Markets Inc. for distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional Investors (MII) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6)
or (ii) CIBC World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). U.S. MIIs receiving
this report from CIBC World Markets Inc. (the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than
negotiating their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. (the U.S. broker-dealer).
This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World
Markets in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any
jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information
contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United Kingdom. Such investors will not be able
to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views
expressed in this document are meant for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Ltd.
This report has been prepared by the CIBC group and is issued in Hong Kong by Canadian Imperial Bank of
Commerce, Hong Kong Branch, a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordinance, Cap 571 (the SFO).
This report is intended for professional investors only (within the meaning of the SFO) and has been prepared for
general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any recipient. Any
recipient in Hong Kong who has any questions or requires further information on any matter arising from or relating to
this report should contact Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Hong Kong Branch at Suite 3602, Cheung Kong Centre,
2 Queens Road Central, Hong Kong (telephone number: +852 2841 6111). Orders for Hong Kong listed securities will be
executed by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Hong Kong Branch. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Hong
Kong Branch has entered into an arrangement with its broker-dealer affiliates worldwide to execute orders for securities
listed outside of Hong Kong for Hong Kong clients.
This report is intended for distribution in Singapore solely to institutional investors (within the meanings of the
Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110 of Singapore)).
The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into
account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC World Markets.
Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely
on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of
the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or
apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with
respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is
appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC World
Markets suggests that, prior to acting on any of the recommendations herein, Canadian retail clients of CIBC World
Markets contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Non-client
recipients of this report who are not institutional investor clients of CIBC World Markets should consult with an
independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary
explanation of its contents. CIBC World Markets will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their
receiving this report.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in this
report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may
realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. CIBC World Markets accepts
no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report, except to the extent that liability may
arise under specific statutes or regulations applicable to CIBC World Markets.
Information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from sources believed to
be reliable, but CIBC World Markets does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate
or complete (with the exception of information contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report provided by
CIBC World Markets or individual research analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions
and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report

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Legal Disclaimer (Continued)

and are subject to change without notice.
Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change,
any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax
consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their
own independent tax adviser.
This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. CIBC World Markets has not
reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such
address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's convenience and information, and the content of linked third
party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web
sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk.
Although each company issuing this report is a wholly owned subsidiary of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
(CIBC), each is solely responsible for its contractual obligations and commitments, and any securities products offered
or recommended to or purchased or sold in any client accounts (i) will not be insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation (FDIC), the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation or other similar deposit insurance, (ii) will not be
deposits or other obligations of CIBC, (iii) will not be endorsed or guaranteed by CIBC, and (iv) will be subject to
investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested. The CIBC trademark is used under license.
2015 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure
without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution.

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