Jordan King

John Kirk
Allison Perdue
Yanni Thomas

The Impact of Projected Sea Level Rise

Since time began, Earth has constantly been going through cycles in several different
aspects. One important cycle that affects every other aspect of Earth is the sea level. Over
millions of years the earth flows back and forth between ice age and heightened temperature,
drastically changing the sea level. During these times, the entire face of our planet changes, from
the local temperature all the way to the individual species that thrive in certain areas. As a
species, our main concerns with sea level change are the CO2 emissions, impact on the coast and
global impact.
Sea level, since time began, has fluctuated greatly, primarily due to the rotation and tilt of
the earth. For thousands to millions of years at a time the earth cycles between ice ages and the
sea level rising, the earths global temperature will increase followed by a slow but steady drop.
In times when the temperature is increasing, the sea level increases with it. There are several
factors behind this, the three main reasons being thermal expansion, melting of the ice caps and
glaciers as well as ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica. As the temperature increases, the
water gets warmer and expands raising the sea level, also the rising temperature is not suitable
for ice, causing a great deal of it to melt.
The reason why sea level rise has
become the issue it is today is because
humans have done a great deal of damage to
earths atmosphere, quickening the pace of
earths natural cycle. Records show little

Jordan King
John Kirk
Allison Perdue
Yanni Thomas

change in sea level from 0-1900 AD. At this point the Industrial Revolution started as well as sea
level rise at about a rate of 1-2.5 mm/year. In 1992, the estimate was about 3 mm/year and has
only increased since then.
The history of CO2 levels can also be compared to the past average sea levels to find a
significant relationship between the two. When looking at graphs of CO2 concentration, global
temperature, and sea level over the past thousands of years (Figure 1) a clear relationship is seen
as each line on the graph is almost identical. Whenever there is an increase in one part of the
graph there is almost a similar increase in the same part of the other two lines. Although, a
relationship is obvious on this graph, it is hard to determine exactly what that relationship is
based solely on this graph. However, the graph matches what one would expect if CO2 was
acting as a heat-trapping greenhouse gas that was raising the global temperature and sea levels.
The most popular theory of why CO2 concentrations are affecting the earth is seen with their
large absorption of infrared radiation. This radiation comes from when visible light and
ultraviolet radiation hits and warms the earth. The warm earth then emits the energy back out as
infrared radiation, which usually passes through the atmosphere unhindered. However, when
large concentrations of CO2 are in the atmospheric air this infrared radiation is absorbed by the
CO2 molecules which then emit the energy in every direction including back at the earth. This
extra energy warms the earth even more which causes a global rise in average temperature. A
hotter average temperature melts more ice from large ice caps. Since ice caps float above the
surface of the water, when they melt completely sea level can rise globally by a significant
amount. With the recent large increase of CO2 concentration in the past 200 years, this
relationship causes serious concern for global climate. If the data from the past is an indicator of
the long term relationship between the three variables, then a future global scale climate change

Jordan King
John Kirk
Allison Perdue
Yanni Thomas

might be on the way. The long term future could hold a significantly warmer Earth and a
significantly higher sea level. Predictions and models have estimated that the average global
temperature can increase anywhere from 2oF to 11.5oF depending on various variables. Sea level
predictions for that time go as high as a 4.9 feet increase.

Figure 1.
It is already known that sea level fluctuates depending on the earths climate. In the past
several thousand years, sea level has been continuously increasing, since the time of the last ice
age. Currently, the sea level in the Gulf area is rising at an approximate rate of 1/5-inch-per-year.
As ice and glaciers continue to melt, the volume of ocean water increases and expands and as it
warms, leading to an accelerated rate of melting. Furthermore, the current rate of sea level rise in
the Gulf Coast area is expected to, at the very least, double by the end of this century as the

Jordan King
John Kirk
Allison Perdue
Yanni Thomas

atmosphere continues to warm and larger masses of ice melt into the oceans. In Texas, two issues
are actually occurring: the Gulf waters are rising, and the coastal land is becoming less stable.
This is due in part to recent reductions in sediment deposits along the coast resulting in coastal
erosion and retreating shorelines. Given this knowledge, the projected sea level rise along the
Texas coast ranges from a hopeful 1-2 feet increase,
to the worst- case scenario of almost 6 feet.
High-end range: +48-78 inches

In addition to the detrimental effect on the

physical coastline, rising sea levels would also
prove injurious to the socioeconomic culture of the
coast. Texas, as with many of the other Gulf Coast
states, has a high population density in its coastal
counties in comparison to the overall state. In fact,

Low-end range: +8-12 inches

Current Sea Level

almost 25% of the states entire population resides in the 18 coastal counties. A rise in sea level
would mean the displacement of potentially millions of people to counties further inland.
Furthermore, 10 of the nations busiest ports are located in Texas, leaving a sizeable portion of
the shipping economy at risk of the negative impacts of changing sea level. Texas ports receive
approximately half of all foreign crude oil imports into the country, and generate over $50 billion
in tax revenues and income, as well as providing millions of jobs. An increase in sea level
resulting in an altered coastline location would lead to incredibly adverse effects on not only the
Texas economy, but the national as well. Without proper facilities along the coast, shipping
traffic as well as refineries would cease to function and cripple the entire economy.

Jordan King
John Kirk
Allison Perdue
Yanni Thomas

In addition to the pressing matters of CO2 correlation and coastal impacts, there are
various other major global consequences
that are sure to emerge with the slightest
sea level rise. As the earth is mainly
covered by water (70%) the availability
of drinking water does not seem to be an
issue, until it is taken into consideration
that 97% of the water is salt water. With
the rise of ocean levels the preexisting

A family living next to the sea in the village of Betio, on the South
Pacific island of Kiribati, pull themselves from the high waves of
the 'king tide'

fresh water shortage is worsened as the salt water contaminates both the surface and underground
fresh water supplies. As water is a basic and essential need for the continuation of life, this issue
is serious and should be addressed. It is also important to realize that not only drastic changes
can have repercussions, With [just] one meter sea level rise some island nations, such as the
Maldives, would be completely submerged, (Sea Level Rise). In addition to breaking apart the
lives of the inhabitants, this increase can wipe away what was once fertile farmland as well as
further augmenting water contamination. According to Greenpeace International, small islands
are not the only ones who have to worry about ending up below sea level; New York, London,
Shanghai, and Bangkok are only a few of the larger cities who, if submerged, will cause massive
population displacement and economic instability. Another significant complication that arises is
the question, Do we have the billions of dollars necessary to adapt to the changes and
destruction? In 2012 it was averaged that the re-acclimation to a one meter sea level rise would
cost us $156 billion (3% of total GNP) as well as an extensive portion of land that would have to

Jordan King
John Kirk
Allison Perdue
Yanni Thomas

be abandoned. Even as one of the worlds superpowers this is a huge setback, so imagine the toll
it would take on smaller, poorer countries that do not have anywhere near as many resources.
In conclusion, sea level rise is an important matter that needs to be addressed and a solution
should be found. Even though it is a cycle that the earth naturally goes through, humans are
doing a great deal to speed it up. This, in turn, will be very detrimental for the generations to
come

Jordan King
John Kirk
Allison Perdue
Yanni Thomas

Works Cited
"90. Wheres the Problem?" Climate Clash. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Nov. 2013.
"The Ocean." National Geographic. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Nov. 2013.
"Sea Level Is Rising at an Increasing Rate." Is Sea Level Rising? National Ocean Service, 11 Jan.
2013. Web. 03 Nov. 2013.
"Climate Science Glossary." Skeptical Science. Skeptical Science, n.d. Web. 04 Nov. 2013.
Englander, John. "420,000 Years of Temp, CO2, and Sea Level - What a Coincidence." A Clear
Voice on Climate Change & Ocean Impacts. N.p., 15 Sept. 2011. Web. 04 Nov. 2013.
"Future Climate Change." EPA. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d. Web. 04 Nov. 2013.
Parry, Wynne. "How High Will Sea Levels Go by 2100?" LiveScience.com. LiveScience, 24
Sept. 2013. Web. 04 Nov. 2013.
The Risk of Rising Sea Level. Feb. 2013. PDF.
Digital image. Union of Concerned Scientists. 16 Apr. 2013. Web. 30 Oct. 2013.
"Sea Level Rise." Greenpeace International. 4 July 2012. Web. 02 Nov. 2013.