Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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A2 China Steel DA
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1NC
Chinese steel industry is low now---no revenues and
overcapacity.
Sophie Song, 5/23/2013, 30 Top Chinese Steel Companies Have Total
higher
liabilities than assets is problematic for a companys operations, Sheng said.
The ratio of a companys assets to its liabilities is called its current
ratio and measures its ability to pay short-term obligations. Within these 30 firms, Xining Specialty Steels
current ratio is 0.28, Yicai reports. In absolute terms, at the end of Q1, the current
liabilities of Hebei Iron And Steel Co. (SHE:000709) outweigh its current assets by
as much as 45 billion yuan ($7.34 billion), the largest gap of the 30 steel companies. In the first
quarter, the company reported a net profit of 43.8 million yuan ($7.14 million), an 87.82 percent decrease from the same
period last year. Six other companies current liabilities outweigh their current assets by more than 10 billion yuan ($1.63
biggest overcapacity industries in China, according to Yicai. Specifically, the rate of capacity utilization of crude steel was
as low as 75.8 percent. \
This industrial might has been well served by the waterborne transport system
supporting the American and Canadian ports and numerous private terminals located
throughout the Lakes. Some Canadian-flag vessels and other foreign-flag, oceangoing ships call at various points throughout the Lakes. However, the marine
system is comprised mainly of a highly efficient fleet of U.S.-vessels which carry the iron ore, coal,
limestone, cement, etc. needed to operate this massive industrial capacity critical to both U.S. economic
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the severity of the crisis because ships could carry maximum cargo loads. The 21st century began with a
rapidly diminishing level of vital industrial cargoes which could be delivered to end users. The relevant
average ocean going vessel serving Great Lakes ports. The situation has gotten so desperate that the
1,000 ft. self-unloading bulk carriers, the largest and most efficient vessels in the fleet, capable of lifting
nearly 70,000 tons, have been forced to sail 8,000 tons light every voyage. In real terms, the loss of
economic benefit associated with such light loads is staggering. Steel made from 8,000 tons of iron ore
makes 6,000 cars. Power generation resulting from 8,000 tons of coal would provide three hours of peak
demand for a city the size of Detroit, MI. With the housing industry nationwide in distress the loss of 8,000
tons of limestone per voyage means that 24 average American homes cannot be built, further
exacerbating the situation. The core of the problem results from the lack of proper funding and an official
perception of the region as a series of unrelated ports rather than of a cohesive system.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/will-marshall/austerity-obamabudget_b_3117732.html
Giving priority to jobs and growth, Obama calls for new investments
to replenish America's depleted stocks of physical, human and knowledge capital -aka, infrastructure, education and job training, and science and technology. To get America
moving again -- literally -- his plan proposes $40 billion to repair
highways, transit systems and airports, and, for the umpteenth time, a National
Infrastructure Bank. Nonetheless, the Bank is especially critical, for two reasons. First, it would use public
dollars to leverage private investments in modernizing our transportation, energy and water systems. At a time of
constrained federal budgets, it's essential to tap private capital -- pension funds, institutional and even foreign investors-in rebuilding the economy's foundations. Second, the Bank would recruit a corps of finance professionals to steer
investments into projects that generate real economic returns, giving citizens more confidence that politicians won't waste
more in early education for poor children and in equipping Americans with the world-class skills they need to claim their
share of the world's high-wage jobs. And it would build on America's comparative advantage in innovation and technology
by upping spending on research and development, and establishing regional centers to promote advanced manufacturing.
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major threat to the viability of a U.S. domestic steel industry that only recently has seen its markets recover
from the post-9/11 recession. The facts regarding the Chinese steel sector are straightforward and indisputable. By
the end of 2006, China was producing steel products at the rate of 500 million metric tons per year far more than the
next three largest world steel producers combined. China became a net steel exporter in 2005 for the first time and, by
the end of 2006, it had become a major net steel-exporting nation -- with net steel exports in some months approaching a
40 million metric ton annualized rate and with total steel exports to the world approaching a 60 million ton annual rate.
In addition, over the last 6 months of 2006, China a non-market economy -- was the leading foreign supplier of steel to
the U.S. market, and its steel exports to the United States in 2006 are expected to approach or exceed 5 million net tons.
Chinas intense demand for raw materials, including scrap, has altered the cost structure of steel production world wide,
including in the United States. China has also used government money to purchase equity interests in offshore companies
that can supply critical raw materials. Chinas government remains intimately involved in its steel industry -- providing
significant subsidies in the form of favorable tax treatment, export credit support, R&D support and direct funding of new
projects. 7 China is already in a steel oversupply situation, and its announced capacity expansions in the steel sector
between 2005 and 2009 are estimated to exceed 200 million tons. The level of these expansions far exceeds Chinese
The growth of
Chinas steel sector has been heavily influenced by government
intervention. China has: manipulated its currency; provided
significant incentives for foreign investment; and, in many
instances, tied investment incentives to the transfer to China of the
best available steel producing technology. Many of these
technologies are critical to the development of leading edge defense
applications. As production moves, so too does the research and
development that is tied directly to that production. Moreover, as China
domestic demand and ensures the countrys continued growth as a major net steel exporter.
continues to expand its production and its productive capacity far in excess of its domestic needs it is certain to avail
itself of opportunities to gain market share abroad. Chinas ability to gain that market share is enhanced by: a currency
that is undervalued by as much as 40%; a cost structure that, in many cases, does not reflect enforcement of
comprehensive environmental, health and safety regulations; and an economic system that remains government-
its steel sector, must be considered in the context of our own domestic steel industry and the national security
consequences of allowing the U.S. steel industry to become the victim of a foreign government-directed industrial policy
that has already targeted the U.S. market from the standpoint of access to raw materials, technology and greater market
share.
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Union developed during the Cold War to deny U.S. use of the sea or counter U.S.
forces participating in a NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict. One potential difference between the Soviet sea-denial
force and Chinas emerging maritime anti-access force is that Chinas force includes ASBMs capable of
hitting moving ships at sea.
with the expectation that uncertainty will restrain U.S. military action. Unfortunately, China's strategy
Chinese nuclear missiles. Some Chinese missiles, particularly the DF-21, can be armed with either a
Chinese conventional war plans call for longrange "strategic" conventional missile strikes at key enemy targets,
including U.S. military bases on allied soil and the continental United
States. If this were not confusing enough already, The Science of Second Artillery Operations contains
conventional or a nuclear warhead.
a section on "lowering the nuclear threshold" that details procedures for alerting China's nuclear forces in a
crisis for the express purpose of forcing a halt to an enemy's conventional attacks on a select group of
targets, such as Chinese nuclear power plants, large dams and civilian population centers. Although the
Science of Second Artillery Operations unambiguously states that if alerting China's nuclear missile forces
fails to halt conventional enemy attacks China will hold firm to its "no first use" commitment, U.S. decisionmakers might not believe it. Indeed, U.S. interlocutors have repeatedly told their Chinese counterparts that
"rebalancing" U.S. military forces in response to perceived relative increases in Chinese military
capabilities. China sees this so-called "pivot" to Asia, especially when pared with new U.S. military
strategies such as "Air-Sea Battle," as a policy of containment. Both sides downplay the risks of conflict,
but they also see each other as potential adversaries, and are hedging their diplomatic bets with
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expensive investments in new military hardware, including new technologies that will expand the conflict
into cyberspace and outer space. Territorial disputes between China and U.S. allies, rising nationalist
China could
produce any number of casussen belli that could trigger the
conventional conflict that carries the risk of ending in a nuclear war.
sentiment in the region, and the potential for domestic political instability within
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that will come with it, is public protest. Chinese govt. will try to stabilize political institution, suppressing protest by
spending more on public welfare keeping economic growth at stake. China has definitely nothing in its favor right now.
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Times;
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2012/12/18/2003550403
, KTG
One question that should have been asked about the Chinese Communist Partys (CCP) just-completed leadership transition is whether the entire elaborately
emotional and ideological attachment to certain ideals, however misguided. The post-revolutionary elites are ideologically cynical and opportunistic. They view their work
for the regime merely as a form of investment and so seek ever-higher returns. As each preceding generation of rulers cashes in its illicit gains from holding power, the
This is the
underlying dynamic driving corruption in China today. The
consequences of leadership degeneration are easy to see: faltering
economic dynamism and growth, rising social tensions and loss of
government credibility. The puzzle is why neither the compelling self-destructive logic of autocratic rule nor the mounting evidence of
successors are motivated by both the desire to loot more and the fear that there may not be much left by the time they get their turn.
deteriorating regime performance in China has persuaded even some of the most knowledgeable observers that the end of CCP rule is now a distinct possibility. An
obvious explanation is the power of conventional thinking. Long-ruling regimes like the Soviet Communist Party are typically considered invulnerable, even just before
they collapse. However, those who believe that the CCP can defy both the internal degenerative dynamics of autocracy and the historical record of failed one-party
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2AC
Qatar takes out the link already is competing with
Russia but isnt mutually exclusive with US exports.
Matthew Hulbert, November 2012, Qatar plays a strategic LNG Game, The Middle East
Magazine; http://www.themiddleeastmagazine.com/news-detail.php?nid=134, KTG
Qatar has spent a decade making a virtue out of LNG necessity. The
tiny peninsular state signed off vast LNG expansion in the early 2000s to become the
worlds largest (77mt/y) liquid player. It was deemed a low risk play, precisely because a gas hungry America was the target market of choice.
America will
become an LNG export competitor with Qatar over the next five
years. None of that was part of the original Qatari script, but what Doha has lost in the US, it has gained from a global perspective, by
No one - least of all Qatar - saw the shale gas revolution coming. US import demand hasnt just gone;
becoming the crucial swing player feeding European and Asian markets. Get its strategy right, and this will be a commercially and politically
Qatars predicament is how to keep feeding European and Asian markets to its own
current strategy is to keep feeding European sport markets
gain. Its
(principally the UK National Balancing Point) as a transitional step towards an Asian future. The basic idea is if Qatar keeps Europe well
supplied, it can then continue to push for far higher (oil indexed) prices in Asia. When you consider that European prices typically trade at
around $8-10/MMBtu compared to $14-18/MMBtu in Asia, its crystal clear where the best arbitrage returns rest. But where Qatar has been
particularly smart, is grasping that this transitional game is about securing Dohas long term political and economic stake in the global
economy, not just worrying about short term spreads. By playing multiple markets and keeping its finger in the European dyke, Doha can
hedge its global energy stake on the two fronts that ultimately matter supply and demand. For demand, read Asia. Qatar will look to place
over 40-50m tonnes of LNG into Asian markets over the next decade, ramping up the 34m it already ships East. If things go according to plan,
most of that will be under lucrative oil-indexed contracts to India, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, but the key growth market to
secure remains China where gas demand continues to rocket up 5% a year. Beijing is proving increasingly difficult to nail down on price,
thanks to its own eclectic sources of gas supply from Central Asia, Australia and domestic shale prospects. But as long as Qatar keeps feeding
European markets, it is making clear China will have to pay a significant premium to ensure Doha turns most of its tankers East. Its not as if
Given Russia is
also increasingly keen to sell gas into China, Qatar is challenging
Moscow at both ends of the Eurasian pipeline. Qatar not only gives
Beijing another supply option to play over Russias East Siberian
fields, it is wreaking havoc on Russian pricing preferences in Europe. Market share has been taken in
Qatar needs to rake in the Remninbi to survive. More importantly, it directly ties into the supply side picture.
Belgium, France, Spain and Italy, but more importantly, 85% of gas being traded on the UK NBP is Qatari sourced. Little wonder that only 56%
of physically traded gas in Europe was done so under oil-indexed formulas last year traders have a far cheaper and increasingly liquid pool to
play with in Europe. That makes for somewhat awkward Russian-Qatari relations, but also creates serious opportunities for Doha. Russia has
made abundantly clear it wants Qatar to focus on Asia, to sell its gas under long-term contracts and stop feeding European spot market
liquidity. Logical enough; but in return, Qatar would not only expect to get major Russian upstream stakes in Yamal, the Arctic and East
Siberian plays (alongside access to Gazproms downstream stakes), it would need to ensure Russia holds back on Asian supplies. This would
basically amount to a Russian-Qatari swap agreement between European and
third world dictatorship in the way that it is stripping the country's natural resources for the enrichment of top officials and
their close crony connections.
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Keerthi Gondi
outputare
around the table of kleptocrats. That would likely shift the attention of the oligarchs to the scavenging of other parts of
Russia's infrastructure -- the military in particular.
still have recognition that we have a lot of common interests and that it's important for both countries to continue cooperating on them. The
big issue is to what degree we can work together without getting distracted by what Russians see as a U.S. effort to interfere seriously in their
Clearly, President Putin has been encouraging antiAmerican sentiment because he associates U.S. influence with the
opposition to his own presidency--and that's not going to ease. There is a
internal political process.
lot of cooperation going on behind the scenes, and therefore, there is hope that cooler heads will prevail on both sides and that we can pursue
our common interests without letting emotional issues get too much in the way. On the other hand, he's a realist. One of the things we
learned when a group of former ambassadors from Russia and the United States met in Moscow a few weeks ago is that on issues that are
extremely important to the United States, like dealing with North Korea, dealing with Afghanistan, and dealing with Iran, our policies are very
close and tend to be mutually supportive. So we shouldn't ignore the fact that there is a lot of cooperation going on behind the scenes, and
therefore, there is hope that cooler heads will prevail on both sides and that we can pursue our common interests without letting emotional
issues get too much in the way.
B) Syria policy
Jack F. Matlock Jr., April 18 2013, Repairing U.S.-Russia Relations, Former U.S. Ambassador to
Russia; MA in Russian Lang and Literature from Columbia University; Professor of the Practice of
International Diplomacy at Univ. of Columbia; http://www.cfr.org/russian-fed/repairing-us-russiarelations/p30484, KTG
A major international issue right now is Syria. Russia and the United
States have been on different sides: the Russians continue to
support the Bashar al-Assad government, and the United States
wants Assad out, although Washington hasn't gone so far as to arm the opposition. When Obama
and Putin meet in June, can they discuss this issue constructively? What both would like to see happen in
Syria is not that far apart. There is a perception in Russia that the United States is trying to back anti-Assad
forces without knowing what they're supporting, which could produce an outcome that may be bad for all
could agree on what the aims should be. We felt that both countries should be encouraging the formation
of some sort of interim government based upon an election, but there should be negotiations toward that
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C) NATO policy
Peter Dale Scott, 6/7/2013, The NATO Afghanistan War and US-Russian Relations: Drugs, Oil, and
War The Rseau Voltaire is an international non-profit organisation, based in Paris. It stated aim is the
promotion of freedom and secularism, that is separation of church and state, faith and politics; Scott is a
former Canadian diplomat and English Professor at the University of California, Berkeley;
http://www.voltairenet.org/article178787.html, KTG
the related crises of Afghan drug production and drug-financed Salafi jihadism. Since the conference I have continued to
represented many different viewpoints, they tended to share a deep anxiety about US intentions towards Russia and the
U.S. joint activities and operations some of them under NATO auspices with the army and security forces of Uzbekistan.
speakers complained that Americas determination to locate a missile shield system against Afghanistan in Eastern Europe
(rebuffing Russias suggestion that it be placed in Asia) constituted a threat to world peace.
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2AC
Qatar takes out the link already is competing with
Russia but isnt mutually exclusive with US exports.
Matthew Hulbert, November 2012, Qatar plays a strategic LNG Game, The Middle East
Magazine; http://www.themiddleeastmagazine.com/news-detail.php?nid=134
Qatar has spent a decade making a virtue out of LNG necessity. The
tiny peninsular state signed off vast LNG expansion in the early 2000s to become the
worlds largest (77mt/y) liquid player. It was deemed a low risk play, precisely because a gas hungry America was the target market of choice.
America will
become an LNG export competitor with Qatar over the next five
years. None of that was part of the original Qatari script, but what Doha has lost in the US, it has gained from a global perspective, by
No one - least of all Qatar - saw the shale gas revolution coming. US import demand hasnt just gone;
becoming the crucial swing player feeding European and Asian markets. Get its strategy right, and this will be a commercially and politically
Qatars predicament is how to keep feeding European and Asian markets to its own
current strategy is to keep feeding European sport markets
gain. Its
(principally the UK National Balancing Point) as a transitional step towards an Asian future. The basic idea is if Qatar keeps Europe well
supplied, it can then continue to push for far higher (oil indexed) prices in Asia. When you consider that European prices typically trade at
around $8-10/MMBtu compared to $14-18/MMBtu in Asia, its crystal clear where the best arbitrage returns rest. But where Qatar has been
particularly smart, is grasping that this transitional game is about securing Dohas long term political and economic stake in the global
economy, not just worrying about short term spreads. By playing multiple markets and keeping its finger in the European dyke, Doha can
hedge its global energy stake on the two fronts that ultimately matter supply and demand. For demand, read Asia. Qatar will look to place
over 40-50m tonnes of LNG into Asian markets over the next decade, ramping up the 34m it already ships East. If things go according to plan,
most of that will be under lucrative oil-indexed contracts to India, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, but the key growth market to
secure remains China where gas demand continues to rocket up 5% a year. Beijing is proving increasingly difficult to nail down on price,
thanks to its own eclectic sources of gas supply from Central Asia, Australia and domestic shale prospects. But as long as Qatar keeps feeding
European markets, it is making clear China will have to pay a significant premium to ensure Doha turns most of its tankers East. Its not as if
Given Russia is
also increasingly keen to sell gas into China, Qatar is challenging
Moscow at both ends of the Eurasian pipeline. Qatar not only gives
Beijing another supply option to play over Russias East Siberian
fields, it is wreaking havoc on Russian pricing preferences in Europe. Market share has been taken in
Qatar needs to rake in the Remninbi to survive. More importantly, it directly ties into the supply side picture.
Belgium, France, Spain and Italy, but more importantly, 85% of gas being traded on the UK NBP is Qatari sourced. Little wonder that only 56%
of physically traded gas in Europe was done so under oil-indexed formulas last year traders have a far cheaper and increasingly liquid pool to
play with in Europe. That makes for somewhat awkward Russian-Qatari relations, but also creates serious opportunities for Doha. Russia has
made abundantly clear it wants Qatar to focus on Asia, to sell its gas under long-term contracts and stop feeding European spot market
liquidity. Logical enough; but in return, Qatar would not only expect to get major Russian upstream stakes in Yamal, the Arctic and East
Siberian plays (alongside access to Gazproms downstream stakes), it would need to ensure Russia holds back on Asian supplies. This would
basically amount to a Russian-Qatari swap agreement between European and.
third world dictatorship in the way that it is stripping the country's natural resources for the enrichment of top officials and
their close crony connections.
17
Keerthi Gondi
outputare
around the table of kleptocrats. That would likely shift the attention of the oligarchs to the scavenging of other parts of
Russia's infrastructure -- the military in particular.
Russias economy grew at the weakest pace since 2009 in the first quarter as the euro
areas longest recession hurt demand for commodity exports and investment at companies including OAO Gazprom cooled. Gross
domestic product rose 1.6 percent from a year earlier, slowing for a fifth
consecutive quarter, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. That compares with a median estimate of
1.2 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 23 economists and a 2.1 percent pace in the final three months of 2012. The Economy Ministry estimated first-quarter growth at 1.1
trade, extended into a sixth quarter. Thats prompting companies to trim investment, while government spending on the 2014 Sochi Olympics is drawing to a close and
Markets Index and a 10 percent advance for the S&P 500. Russias benchmark was up for the first time in six days, rising 2.1 percent to 1,401.79 at the close in Moscow.
The ruble recorded first-quarter depreciation for the first time since
2009, weakening 0.4 percent against the central banks target basket of dollars and euros. It was little changed at 35.4228. The GDP slowdown prompted the
Economy Ministry last month to cut its 2013 growth forecast to 2.4 percent from 3.7 percent. That is slower than last years 3.4 percent expansion. The ministry reiterated
the forecast in an e-mailed statement today, saying a review of the forecast was planned in September at the earliest. Russia probably wont slide into recession without
an external shock, such as a downturn in the global economy, according to Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach. While the euro area is stagnating, some improvement
there is expected in the second half, he told reporters yesterday. Stagnation Evil For us, stagnation and low growth are no less of an evil and no less of a threat,
Klepach said after a government meeting in Moscow. Accelerating the pace of growth without starting serious, national macroeconomic projects is impossible. The
government this week submitted a draft plan to revive the economy to President Vladimir Putin, with measures including lowering bank lending rates and slowing increases
Economics in London, said in a research note. One of the most striking features of the recent slowdown is that growth slowed despite the fact that oil prices have
remained high. Urals crude, the countrys main export blend, averaged $110.77 a barrel in the first quarter, compared with $116.67 a year earlier, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. The price for exports via northwest Europe was $102.73 today. Investment Contracts Fixed investment fell 0.8 percent from a year earlier in
spending by the state to stimulate domestic demand. Bank Rossii has argued that unemployment near record lows and consumer-lending growth at almost 40 percent
mean cheaper loans would only fuel inflation. Low expectations for the first quarter have been formed by the Economy Ministry, which estimated GDP growth at 1.1
percent, said Julia Tsepliaeva, head of research at BNP Paribas SA in Moscow. The ministry may have been aiming to trigger aggressive economic stimulus to stave off
recession risks, she said in a note to clients. Holding Rates Monetary-policy makers led by central bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev, who steps down next month, have
resisted calls to lower Russias key rates as inflation remains more than one percentage point above their 5 percent to 6 percent target range. They kept the refinancing
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people to spend more. Some economists have said the increase in home prices alone could boost consumer spending enough to offset a Social
percent rate of decline was even larger than first estimated, reflecting further drops in defense spending and weaker activity at the state and
at an annual rate of 12.1 percent in the first quarter, its third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. #Businesses, however, reduced the
pace of their investment in equipment and computer software. That slowed to a growth rate of 4.6 percent in the first quarter, down from
growth of 11.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
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The Labor Department will release its latest update on the U.S. job
market Friday morning, and the outlook is neither rosy nor gloom and doom. Economists
surveyed by CNNMoney are expecting 140,000 jobs were created in April. While that would be an improvement
compared to the meager 88,000 jobs added in March, it's really not much to write home about either .
Over the
past 12 months, the U.S. economy added an average of 159,000 jobs
a month. Anything around that level is just more of the same slow
hiring. Hiring at that pace is also not enough to bring the
unemployment rate down significantly, which is exactly why
economists are predicting unemployment will be unchanged at 7.6%. Last
month, the unemployment rate fell largely because 500,000 people dropped out of the labor force. As of March, only
63.3% of the civilian population, over age 16, was participating in the job market. That's the lowest labor force
We lost 8.8
million jobs from the peak of the job market in January 2008, to its trough in February 2010. We have since
participation rate since May 1979, and we will closely be watching those figures for improvement.
gained 5.9 million jobs or roughly two thirds -- back. This chart shows the total number of employees in the U.S. over the
past six years.
gauge of currency-price swings climbed to the highest level in almost a year. 4:25 May 30 (Bloomberg) -Thio Chin Loo, a senior currency analyst at BNP Paribas SA in Singapore, talks about the yen, the baht and
the Australian dollar. She speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)
The data this morning is weighing on the dollar, Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in
Washington at the currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., said in a telephone
interview. Its
currency slid 0.8 percent to $1.3050 per euro at 5 p.m. New York time. It touched $1.3061, the weakest
level since May 9, crossed 50- and 200-day moving averages and pared a monthly advance to 0.9 percent.
The dollar lost 0.4 percent to 100.73 yen. It touched 100.47, also the weakest since May 9, when the
Japanese currency depreciated past 100 for the first time in four years. The euro gained 0.4 percent to
131.43 yen. JPMorgan Chase & Co.s Global FX Volatility Index reached 10.05 percent, the highest level
since June 28.
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Keerthi Gondi
the increased value of stocks and homes, the basic message to be drawn from the Fed data is that the economy is drowning in debt, nearly all
of the recent increase of which has come from the Federal government. These models suggest that the basic problem with the current
net national
savings not only turned negative during the recession, but has remained
negative since (see Figure 1). Gross national savings is the sum of household
savings, the retained earnings of businesses, and the consolidated government (federal, state, and local) budget balance. In 2012,
economy is excess savings. Yet, whats been most interesting about the Obama years has been the way
gross national savings totaled $1.98 trillion. During the same year, the depreciation of the existing capital stock was estimated to be $2.01
net savings (gross savings depreciation) was -$31 billion. This means that the U.S.
had to import $31 billion of capital from abroad simply to raise the funds necessary to
replace depreciated assets and keep the capital stock from contracting. Keynes popularized the theory of the
trillion. As a result,
paradox of thrift, which argues that an increase in desired savings in excess of investment demand can lead to a reduction in income, which
record of 97% of GDP. As a result, it is perfectly understandable that the household current account balance (income relative to spending)
shifted into positive territory in 2008 and has remained there since. Thanks to savings in excess of spending (and record defaults on mortgage
debt
, the lowest level since 2003. Figure 2: U.S.
Household Current Account Balance But its not clear why this required household deleveraging could not be accommodated by other sectors
simply responds passively to households expenditures; each period, the amount produced by businesses is exactly the amount demanded.
The problem is that businesses must invest and hire to have the capital necessary to meet household demand. The rate of this investment is
generally determined by the financial condition of businesses, corporate profits, and the relationship between the expected return on capital
and borrowing costs. The rate of business investment also determines payroll employment growth (see Figure 3). Businesses balance sheets
nonfinancial businesses continue to run current account surpluses averaging 2% of GDP, as businesses hoard cash instead of hiring and
investing. Figure 3: Relationship Between Business Investment and Job Growth (JEC) Figure 4: U.S. Nonfinancial Businesses Current Account
Balance Businesses reluctance to invest is understandable given the huge increase in government indebtedness during the Obama years.
The doubling of
the publicly-held debt over the past four years to $12 trillion has
increased the present value of future tax liabilities by $6 trillion. This
When the government issues debt, it creates future tax liabilities that must be financed by the private sector.
increase comes in addition to the surge in future entitlement spending, which will create trillions of dollars in additional future tax liabilities.
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1NC
1. Transportation must have the primary purpose of
moving people or goodsaff doesnt do that.
DoE 8 (United States Department of Energy Energy Intense Indicators in
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http://blog.arborinvestmentplanner.com/2011/09/infrastructure-investmentenergy-transportation-communications-utilities/)
Transportation Infrastructure Over the last several decades Americas infrastructure
spending has been less than one-half other developed nations and only a quarter of emerging market
countries. Civil engineers give our transport structures low marks. Our roads, railways, ports, and airports
are all judged mediocre. It has become well recognized that we must invest more in upgrading our
transportation infrastructure. But because of the years of neglect, substantial increases in operation and
maintenance budgets will also be required. The above engineering and construction firms could also
Communications Infrastructure
Communications infrastructure would include items we take for
granted everyday, such as the internet , telephone , television
benefit from transportation infrastructure spending.
4. Voting Issue
a. Limitstheir inclusion of military, surveillance,
vehicles, and communication infrastructure absolutely
EXPLODES neg research burdenmakes it almost
impossible for us to prep and exponentially expands the
topic.
b. Groundwe lose links to our generic TI links and
tradeoff because they can claim any of those 3 areas.
THIS IS NOT A JOKE OF A TOPICALITY ARGUMENT. THEY
LITERALLY STEAL EVERYTHING WE CAN RUN.
c. Even if they win this topicality argument, theyre
effects topical. At best, Dam construction and investment
only comes after all the miscellaneous untopical parts I
listed above.
Investment is direct spending on infrastructure and
grants to support private sector asset creationmeans Aff
is FX-T.
Scotland 5 (Government of Scotland, Infrastructure Investment Plan:
Investing in the Future of Scotland, February,
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/02/20756/53558)
Appendix A: Technical Definitions of Infrastructure Investment
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over more than one year). If spending is not classified as being on fixed assets then it is treated as revenue
expenditure.
For budgeting purposes, what scores within Capital Delegated Expenditure Limits (capital DEL) is
everything that scores as capital for accounting purposes, as well as capital grants to and supported
borrowing by local authorities and spending by Non-Departmental Public Bodies that will be included as
capital in their accounts. For public corporations such as Scottish Water, capital DEL is the net lending to
the relevant public corporation by the department and not the public corporation's own self-financed
capital spending.
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USACE DSP CP
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1NC
Text: The United States Army Corps of Engineers should
prioritize, implement, and fulfill the Dam Safety Program
for periodic dam safety inspections and evaluations in the
United States.
Contention 1 is Competitionthe Counterplan tests the
agent of the affirmative plan and the specific program to
invest in Dam Safety.
Contention 2 is Solvency
The Army Corps Dam Safety Program can successfully
ensure Dam safety and reliability.
United States Army Corps of Engineers, 2013, Dam Safety
Program,
http://www.usace.army.mil/Missions/CivilWorks/DamSafetyProgram.aspx, KTG
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Dam Safety Program uses a riskinformed approach to manage its portfolio of 694 dams, with public safety the
number one priority. This robust risk-informed approach is a best practice
adopted to develop balanced and informed assessments of the safety of our
dams and to evaluate, prioritize and justify dam safety decisions. Critical to
an effective safety program is, of course, the focus on public safety, but it
also requires continuous and periodic project inspections and evaluations.
The Dam Safety Program seeks to ensure that USACE owned and operated
dams do not present unacceptable risks to people, property, or the
environment, with the emphasis on people. USACE has learned a great deal
about its dams through an initial screening of its portfolio. More importantly,
however, are the lessons we learn about how to continually adjust and fine
tune the program.
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from USACE dams. Because USACE is responsible for making sure its dams do
not present unacceptable risks to the public, USACE transitioned from a solely
standards-based approach for its dam safety program to a dam safety
portfolio risk management approach. A key mission of the USACE dam safety
program is to achieve an equitable and reasonably low level of risk to the
public from its dams. The USACE dam safety program is managed from a riskinformed USACE-wide portfolio perspective applied to all features of all dams
on a continuing basis. The urgency of actions, including funding, to reduce
risks in the short term and in the long term is commensurate with the level of
risk based on current knowledge. USACE provides risk information to internal
and external stakeholders. An informed and engaged public understands risk
and can contribute to the evaluation of risk reduction options and can take
some degree of responsibility for its safety. There has been tremendous
progress in the USACE Dam Safety Program in the past six years. The
program has transitioned from testing new organizational policies,
procedures, and organizational elements to operational and production
mode. Many great ideas for different program elements have been put in
place over the last few years including the implementation of a new
comprehensive dam safety regulation that fully embraces and operationalizes
USACEs new risk-informed approach, as well as the establishment of
production centers and an assortment of new management tools.
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Extensions
The counterplan is the implement the USACE Dam Safety
program instead of the affirmative FEMA National Dam
Safety Program. This avoids the FEMA turns because we
dont use FEMA.
Extend USACE 13Army DSP can successfully ensure dam
safety and reliabilityit fine tunes dam safety.
Extend USACE 13 #2USACE has full jurisdiction over
dams in the first places, meaning they have greatest
inspection, organization, and procedures.
FEMA Arguments
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1NC
Their inherency evidence says they use FEMA for funding
and implementation.
Turn, thats badFEMA hurts the process:
1. Increased DATA, measuring, and reporting only risks
delays and destroys effective response and risks impacts.
Global Accountability Office 11, Government Accountability Office,
Statement of William O. Jenkins, Jr., Director Homeland Security and Justice
Issues , March 17, 2011, Testimony Before the Committee on Homeland
Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S.Senate, MEASURING DISASTER
PREPAREDNESS FEMA Has Made Limited Progress in Assessing National
Capabilities, PDF
We reported in July 2005 that DHS had identified potential challenges in gathering the
information needed to assess capabilities, including determining
how to aggregate data from federal, state, local, and tribal
governments and others and integrating self-assessment and external assessment approaches. In
reviewing FEMA and the Militarys efforts to assess capabilities , we further reported in April
2009 that FEMA and space agencies faced methodological challenges with
regard to (1) differences in data available, (2) variations in reporting
structures across states, and (3) variations in the level of detail
within data sources requiring subjective interpretation. We recommended
that FEMA enhance its project management plan to include milestone dates, among other things, a
recommendation to which DHS concurred. In October 2010, we reported that FEMA had enhanced its
project management plan. Nonetheless, the challenges we reported in July 2005 and April 2009 faced by
DHS and FEMA, respectively, in their efforts to measure preparedness and establish a system of metrics to
assess national capabilities have proved to be difficult for them to overcome. We reported that in October
2010, in general,
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actually solving the fiscal problems plaguing FEMA. For too long,
FEMA has federalized disaster response to the point where every
routine disaster receives an onslaught of federal funds. FEMA should
look to radically redefine what it does and what it doesnt, thereby
putting states and locals back in the drivers seat of disaster
responseCongress and the Administration could simply grant FEMA another round of taxpayer
dollars as a short-term band-aid for FEMA budget woes. But this would ensure another year
that the fundamental problems with FEMAs disaster response
framework remain in placeleaving state and local governments
less prepared and FEMA undoubtedly ill-equipped for the next truly catastrophic disaster.
FEMAs Budget Woes Is Not More Money posted to The Heritage Foundation;
McNeill is Heritage Foundation Senior policy analyst of Homeland Security;
Mayer is a visiting fellow,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/04/the-solution-to-femasbudget-woes-is-not-more-money, KTG
In the short span of 16 years, the yearly average of FEMA
declarations has tripled from 43 under President George H. W. Bush to 89 under President
Clinton to 130 under President George W. Bush. In his first year, President Barack Obama issued 108
declarationsthe 12th highest in FEMA historywithout the occurrence of one hurricane or other major
disaster. In the first three months of 2010, President Obama has issued 32 declarations, which puts him on
storm-related damages reach $1.29 per capita, [which] for several states that is less than $1 million in
damages.
FEMAs Budget Woes Is Not More Money posted to The Heritage Foundation;
McNeill is Heritage Foundation Senior policy analyst of Homeland Security;
Mayer is a visiting fellow,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/04/the-solution-to-femasbudget-woes-is-not-more-money, KTG
Truly catastrophic disasters that overwhelm state and local
governments are a welcome forum for FEMA intervention; that is, after all,
the very purpose of FEMA declarations. However, all too often disaster politics,
rather than effective policy, drive decisions on disaster response.
Washington policymakers simply do not know how to say no to
33
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34
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Extensions
1. Extend GAO 11increasing the amount of data and
measurements, which aff does through inspections, only
destroys response by creating data overload resulting in
unreliability.
2. Extend first McNeill and Mayer cardSpending more
money on FEMA wastes taxpayer money and leaves states
less prepared due to cost overruns.
3. Extend second McNeill and Mayer cardthat uniquely
guts the security advantage, because FEMA would run out
of money. They would then declare random security
breaches and disasters for more federal funding, meaning
disaster response becomes overstretched.
4. Extend final McNeill and Mayer cardpolitics influences
FEMA disaster response decisions more than actual
humanitarianism, meaning some states get less funding
than others resulting in higher magnitude of threat.
5. FEMA is 37 for 37 scenarios behind killing effective
relief
GAO, Government Accountability Office, Statement of William O. Jenkins, Jr.,
Director Homeland Security and Justice Issues , March 17, 2011, Testimony
Before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs,
U.S.Senate, MEASURING DISASTER PREPAREDNESS FEMA Has Made Limited
Progress in Assessing National Capabilities, PDF
InApril2009,wereportedthatestablishingquantifiablemetricsfortargetcapabilitieswasaprerequisitetodevelopingassessment
datathatcanbecomparedacrossalllevelsofgovernment.Atthetimeofourreview,FEMAwasintheprocessofrefiningthetarget
capabilitiestomakethemmoremeasurableandtoprovidestateandlocaljurisdictionswithadditionalguidanceonthelevelsof
capabilitytheyneed.Specifically,
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MaryLou Wong, whose home in the Midland Beach neighborhood was destroyed. " They
come back." Punch-drunk residents' ire is also aimed at the city -- which is going door-to-door to
order people out of their homes -- at the American Red Cross, which some say has not done enough and at
police and firefighters. One group of residents, calling themselves the "Brown Cross," is
patrolling the devastated streets, armed with walkie-talkies, and helping residents clear debris and pump
water from their flooded homes. The group started with a dozen men, and has swollen to more than 100.
done more for our community than FEMA, the Red Cross and the National
Guard combined, directly hitting houses and people in need , Frank Recce, the 24Weve
year-old longshoreman and Iraq Army veteran who organized the group, told FoxNews.com. Staten Island
residents fed up with FEMA organize own relief efforts Last week, when President Obama toured the New
Jersey and New York coastal areas hit hard by Sandy, he vowed to get help to the victims quickly. No
bureaucracy. No red tape, Obama vowed. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said
Thursday that the storm could cost the state $33 billion. FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said the agency
is helping, and urged people to go to www.disasterassistance.gov or call 1-800-621-FEMA (3362). He also
said temporary, manufactured housing is on the way. Officials described the homes are trailers, but are
different from those used to house victims of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans seven years ago. "FEMA is
part of a big team on the response and recovery to Sandy, and we continue to closely coordinate with our
the borough.
36
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National Security FL
37
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38
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effort to transfer knowledge from those who are retiring within the field, is
essential for a vital knowledge base and technical capability into the future.
http://www.gbra.org/documents/hazardmitigation/update/Section14DamFailure.pdf, KTG
There are about 80,000 dams in the United States today .6 The State
of Texas has not experienced loss of life or extensive economic
damage due to a dam failure since the first half of the twentieth
century. However, due to limited state staff, many incidents are not reported and, therefore, the actual
number of incidents is likely to be greater. There has not been a recorded dam failure event for any of the
No historical events of
dam failure have been recorded in the United States, though the risk
of dam failure is monitored closely. Due the lack of historical
occurrences, the probability of a future event is unlikely , meaning an event
participating jurisdictions in the basin. Probability of Future Events
(GO TO A2 TERRORISM)
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http://www.gbra.org/documents/hazardmitigation/update/Section14DamFailure.pdf, KTG
There are about 80,000 dams in the United States today .6 The State
of Texas has not experienced loss of life or extensive economic
damage due to a dam failure since the first half of the twentieth
century. However, due to limited state staff, many incidents are not reported and, therefore, the actual
number of incidents is likely to be greater. There has not been a recorded dam failure event for any of the
No historical events of
dam failure have been recorded in the United States, though the risk
of dam failure is monitored closely. Due the lack of historical
occurrences, the probability of a future event is unlikely , meaning an event
participating jurisdictions in the basin. Probability of Future Events
(GO TO A2 TERRORISM)
43
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Extensions
Solvency FL
44
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1NC
1. ASDSO evidence is hella biasedit comes from an
associated dedicated to repairing Dams.
2. National Dam Safety Program failsno agency can
implement it and money overstretches success. It also
trades off with more important programs.
Government Accountability Office, May 8 2008, Physical
Infrastructure: Challenges and Investment Options for the Nations
Infrastructure Testimony before the Committee on the Budget and the
Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, U.S. House of
Representatives; Statement of Patricia A. Dalton, Managing Director Physical
Infrastructure Issues; http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08763t.pdf, KTG
To address the challenges facing our nations dams, the Federal
Emergency Management Agency and the National Dam Safety
Review Board identified both short- and long-term goals and
priorities for the National Dam Safety Program17 over the next 5 to 10 years.
They include identifying and remedying deficient dams, increasing dam inspections, increasing the number
of and updating of Emergency Action Plans, achieving the participation of all states in the National Dam
State Dam Safety Officials reported similar funding constraints on dam investment at the state level.
4. No leadership
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), December 2011,
Review and Evaluation of the National Dam Safety Program A Study
Conducted for the Federal Emergency Management Agency by the Water
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The NDSP and its impact are limited by its strategic vision.
Although the current governance model is adequate, the program
must focus on the continued evolution of a holistic, long-term strategic approach to dam safety within the Federal and State
communities that fully incorporates emergency and floodplain
management. This should in no way dilute the critical ongoing efforts to minimize dam failures. The
3.
Board and ICODS have migrated toward operational issues with less fo- cus on the big picture. These
bodies host extensive expertise within the domain of dam safety, and going forward, they need to invest
their unique talents in an effective vision for the larger program.
El Al Security Neg
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1NC
Text: The United States federal government should
abolish the Department of Homeland Security and the
Transportation Security Administration and initiate full
privatization of airport security systems at all major
airports in the United States.
Contention 1 is competition:
Normal means for airport security uses the DHSTSA also
falls under the DHS.
Department of Homeland Security, 2012, Aviation Security,
http://www.dhs.gov/aviation-security, KTG
In response to both 9/11 and evolving threats, and with the help and
support of Congress, DHS has significantly adapted and enhanced its
ability to detect threats through a multi-layered, risk-based system.
Today nearly 51,000 Transportation Security Officers (TSOs), Transportation Security Inspectors, and
Behavior Detection Officers serve on the frontlines at more than 450 U.S. airports. Prior to 9/11, limited
100 percent of
all checked and carry-on baggage is now screened for explosives and
the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) continually assesses intelligence
federal security requirements existed for cargo and baggage screening. Today,
to develop countermeasures in order to enhance its multiple layers of security at airports and onboard
Passenger Name Records prior to departure and has expanded trusted traveler programs, expediting travel
screening through TSA Pre security lanes since the initiative began in October 2011. TSA Pre is
currently available in 18 airports for select frequent flyers of participating airlines and members of CBP
Trusted Traveler programs. United Airlines, US Airways, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines and Delta Air
Lines offer benefits of TSA Pre to their eligible frequent travelers.
Contention 2 is Solvency:
DHS bureaucracy kills aviation security efforts and turns
caseabolishing the DHS and the TSA allows more
coordination.
Rittgers, Cato, 2011, Abolish the Department of Homeland Security,
Policy Analysis of the Cato Organization by Executive David Rittgers, No. 683;
http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/PA683.pdf, KTG
After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Congress created
the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), an umbrella organization that would oversee 22 preexisting federal agencies. The idea
was to improve the coordina- tion of the federal governments counterterror- ism effort,
but the result has been an ever-ex- panding bureaucracy. DHS has
too many subdivisions in too many disparate fields to operate
effectively. Agencies with responsibilities for counterfeiting investigations, border security, disaster preparedness, federal law
enforcement training, biological warfare defense, and computer
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incident re- sponse find themselves under the same cabinet official.
This arrangement has not enhanced the governments competence.
Americans are not safer because the head of DHS is simulta- neously
responsible for airport security and governmental efforts to counter
potential flu epidemics. National defense is a key governmental responsibility, but focusing too many resources on trying to defend
every potential terrorist tar- get is a recipe for wasteful spending.
Our lim- ited resources are better spent on investigating and
arresting aspiring terrorists. DHS respon- sibilities for aviation
security, domestic surveil- lance, and port security have made it too easy for
politicians to disguise pork barrel spending in red, white, and blue.
Politicians want to bring money home to their districts, and as a
result, DHS appropriations too often differ from what ought to be
DHS priorities. The Department of Homeland Security should be
abolished and its components re- organized into more practical
groupings. The agencies tasked with immigration, border secu- rity,
and customs enforcement belong under the same oversight agency,
which could appropri- ately be called the Border Security Administration. The Transportation Security Administra- tion and Federal Air
Marshals Service should be abolished, and the federal government
should end support for fusion centers. The remaining DHS
organizations should return to their for- mer parent agencies.
Terrorism remains a serious problem, but policymakers ought to be
more candid with the American public. Instead of pandering to fear
and overreacting to every potential threat, poli- cymakers should
keep the risk of terrorist at- tacks in perspective and focus public
resources on cost-effective measures.
Privatizing airport security saves taxpayer money and is better than
federal policies.
Rittgers, Cato, 2011, Abolish the Department of Homeland Security,
Policy Analysis of the Cato Organization by Executive David Rittgers, No. 683;
http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/PA683.pdf, KTG
Privatize Aviation Security The clearest way to reduce spending on
airport screening and prevent TSA mission creep is to re-privatize
airport security. That would save $3 billion and place financial responsibility for security where it belongs with the passengers,
airlines, and airports, not the taxpayer.97 Using private passenger
screeners in lieu of TSA employees will provide savings for the
taxpayer without reducing aviation security. Contract screeners are already
employed at over a dozen airports under the Screening Partnership Program (SPP).98 BearingPoint, a
management and consulting contractor, conducted a study of the SPP airports and found that those
screeners performed con- sistent with or better than TSA screeners, while screening costs were marginally
re- duced in most cases.99 TSA has consistently argued that private sector screeners would be more
expensive, but the GAO questioned the TSAs methodology in comparing air- port screening costs.100
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2NC/1NR Overview
Current policy allows for the screening of all passengers by either (1) body scanner machines or (2) magnetometer
screening supplemented with a pat-down search. Advocates of body
travelers clothing.57
scanners argue that explosives hidden under clothing, such as the bomb carried by Farouk Abdulmutallab
Yet the
case for body scanners has been overstated. In a recent study,
academics Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller assumed that body
scanner technology had a 50 percent chance of successfully
accomplishing each of the following three tasks: (1) preventing a
suicide bomber from boarding an aircraft; (2) preventing detonation
of an explosive device because the use of the AIT prevented bomb
construction with detectable and reliable ma- terials; and (3)
preventing a suicide bomber from getting a bomb past security that
was large enough to down an aircraft.59 The study concluded that to
be cost-effective, body scanner machines every two years would
have to disrupt more than one attack effort with body-borne
explosives that otherwise would have been successful despite other
se- curity measures, terrorist incompetence and amateurishness,
and the technical difficulties in setting off a bomb sufficiently
destructive to down an airliner.60
in the attempted Christmas Day bombing in 2009, require ex- panded use of body scanners.58
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Limiting liability
handicaps the market incentives that provide for effective security .
The insur- ance industry and businesses in general have adapted to terrorism. A recent
insurance study found that 27 percent of businesses pur- chased
terrorism insurance in 2003, whereas 61 percent purchase it
now.113 Terrorism in- surance rates have dropped consistently since
the 2001 attacks, and firms can now insure 14 a $303 million property for
$9,541 per year, a small fraction of total insurance costs.114 The
commercial aviation industry canand shouldprovide its own
security.
The better answer is that airport and air- line liability should not be capped.
for security where it belongs with the passengers, airlines, and airports, not the taxpayer.97 Using private passenger
screeners in lieu of TSA employees will provide savings for the taxpayer without reducing aviation security. Contract
screeners are already employed at over a dozen airports under the Screening Partnership Program (SPP).98 BearingPoint,
a management and consulting contractor, conducted a study of the SPP airports and found that those screeners
performed con- sistent with or better than TSA screeners, while screening costs were marginally re- duced in most
55
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Racism DA
56
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1NC
El Al security system is full of racism and profiling.
Weisenthal, Business Insider, 2010 (Joe Weisenthal, 6/6/2010,
Sorry, The El-Al Israeli Security Model Will Never Work Here, Business
Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/sorry-the-el-al-israeli-security-modelwill-never-work-here-2010-1), KTG
1. Scale Scale is an issue, but nobody in the thread has touched on why. The Israeli
security model is (as noted in the article) more about the passenger than
their baggage. This approach is both effective, time-consuming, and
"racist": the profilers have a conversation with each passenger; as I'm an Israeli Jew, I always get the
abbreviated treatment -- focusing more on where my bags have been since I've packed them. As a
foreigner, you get a much more in-depth grilling. As a Muslim? They want to know your shoe size, and then
a whole 'nother screener comes over and asks you everything all over again, just to see that you keep your
story straight. Like they say in the article, the conversations they have are not so much about what you
say as how you say it. The screeners are taught to iterate a few levels deep into your story and see that it
The limitations imposed on people of color by poverty, subservience, and powerlessness are cruel,
inhuman, and unjust: the effects of uncontrolled power privilege, and greed, which are the marks of our
For
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acceptable. When you have a normalizing society, you have a power which is, at least superficially,
in the first instance, or in the first line a biopower, and racism is the indispensable precondition that allows
someone to be killed, that allows others to be killed. And we can also understand why racism should have
developed in modern societies that function in the biopower mode; we can understand why racism broke
out at a number of .privileged moments, and why they were precisely the moments when the right to take
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2NC Racism
El Al airport security is a large racial system for
identifying potential threats against a nationthats
Weisenthan 10. Arabs, Hispanics, Blacks, and other races
non-white are often pulled aside, held back, and not
allowed on flights and out of the airport because their
skin color poses a threat to national security.
This is what the DA is predicated onyou should reject
this form of racist methodology. Barndt 91 indicates that
racism must be rejected in every single instanceeven if
the DA is non-unique, still a reason to vote neg. The
horrors of racism need to dismantle, step by step.
We outweigh on any form of impact calculusFoucault 76
is the most important card on this flow
Israel airport security system is rife with racial profiling
singles out Arabs, Hispanics, and East Asian.
Kane, Mondo Weiss, 2012 (Alex Kane, August 14, 2012, Boston
Airport security program rife with racial profiling has Israeli links, Mondo
Weiss: Idea Think-Tank in the Middle East;
http://mondoweiss.net/2012/08/boston-airport-security-program-rife-withracial-profiling-has-israeli-links.html), KTG
Security officers at Bostons Logan International Airport have come under fire for the
widespread racial profiling of Arabs, Muslims, Blacks and Hispanics
in their zeal to ferret out terrorists. The New York Times broke the story over the weekend
after officers who requested anonymity came forward; some officers have complained internally to the Transportation
Security Agency as well. A Massachusetts lawmaker has called for congressional hearings on the racial profiling
are modeled on Israels policies at their own airportpolicies that are blatantly racist. Heres more from the New York
and internal complaints, officers from the Transportation Security Administrations behavior detection program at Logan
International Airport in Boston asserted that passengers who fit certain profiles Hispanics traveling to Miami, for
instance, or blacks wearing baseball caps backward are much more likely to be stopped, searched and questioned for
Security Solutions was consulting with Logan International, according to NPR. In an interview, Rafi Ron, the head of the
Israeli company and the former head of security at Ben-Gurion Airport, insisted that Israel does not racially profile. But
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Ron said that Israel uses profiling that takes into consideration where somebody comes from, and if somebodys home
address is Gaza, we should be paying more attention to details. (Ron also said in a more recent interview on Bostons
NPR station that targeting minorities is not a good idea.) It took until August 2011 for the Israeli-inspired model to be
anonymous TSA officer complained that this behavior detection program is no longer a behavior-based program, but
not surprised at the revelations published by the New York Times. Li himself has been questioned extensively at Logan
International, and while it was not due to his race, it was due to his travels to the Middle East. Over the past two years I
have been subjected to additional interrogation by [Customs and Border Protection] every time I have entered the US at
Logan. This has generally been triggered by visa stamps I have in my passport from Yemen, a country which I last visited
in 2006 as a fellow at the American Institute for Yemeni Studies (which is supported by the US Departments of State and
Education), Li wrote in an email. The scope of questioning goes far beyond routine matters of ascertaining my
citizenship, searching for contraband, or inquiring about the nature of my trip. Instead, it seems that CBP has taken on an
entirely new mandate of open-ended domestic intelligence gathering. The influence of Israeli-style security tactics
extends far beyond Logan, as Max Blumenthal documented in this report, though the US has its own racial profiling
problems separate from Israels. For example, after the failed attempt in 2010 to bomb an airliner on Christmas Day by a
Nigerian-born member of Yemens Al Qaeda branch, the Obama administration announced that travelers from 14
countries would be subject to additional security screening. The countries were largely Muslim-majority ones. The
hirabis have been especially poor at executing their latest attempted attacks
have provoked precisely the kinds of polarizing reactions they hoped for. When Farouk
Abdulmutallab tried and failed to down a jetliner on Christmas Day, the US government
responded by sin- gling out people from Muslim-majority coun- tries
for increased scanning at airports around the world. After Faisal Shahzad lit up
TERRORISM Though
his dud of a truck bomb in Times Square, policymak- ers and talking heads raised a fuss about an interfaith
(but primarily Muslim) cultural center to be erected blocks away from the site of the former World Trade
some
American lawmakers called for legislation preventing Sharia law
from supplanting the American Constitution . Throughout all these events, a
fringe group of pundits claimed the current presidential
administration was coddling or participating in an Islamic conspiracy
Center towers. As al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula sent printer cartridge bombs to Detroit,
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to take over the United States.64 While many Americans saw this
Islamophobia as unseemly or ridiculous, many others easily
participated in the polarization hirabis sought to inspire . Polls measuring
Americans support for the construction of a multi-faith cultural center blocks from Ground Zero quickly
shifted in the fall of 2010 as a few bloggers characterized the center as a Victory Mosque intended to
taunt the United States. Attempts by the centers imam to explain his record of, and commitment to,
building inter- faith coalitions did not neutralize opponents beliefs.
Muslims cannot.
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Solvency 1NC
(Use stuff in the DHS CP if needed)
rushed this untested product to deployment, ignoring internal procedures designed to prevent this type of
waste. After the decision was made to remove and dispose of the puffers, TSA stored this ineffective
technology for upwards of four years at taxpayer expense prior to disposition in 2009 and 2010. In
response to the Christmas Day Underwear Bomber Attack, TSA
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Sorry, The El-Al Israeli Security Model Will Never Work Here, Business
Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/sorry-the-el-al-israeli-security-modelwill-never-work-here-2010-1), KTG
1. Scale Scale is an issue, but nobody in the thread has touched on why. The Israeli
security model is (as noted in the article) more about the passenger than
their baggage. This approach is both effective, time-consuming, and
"racist": the profilers have a conversation with each passenger; as I'm an Israeli Jew, I always get the
abbreviated treatment -- focusing more on where my bags have been since I've packed them. As a
foreigner, you get a much more in-depth grilling. As a Muslim? They want to know your shoe size, and then
a whole 'nother screener comes over and asks you everything all over again, just to see that you keep your
story straight. Like they say in the article, the conversations they have are not so much about what you
say as how you say it. The screeners are taught to iterate a few levels deep into your story and see that it
Sorry, The El-Al Israeli Security Model Will Never Work Here, Business
Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/sorry-the-el-al-israeli-security-modelwill-never-work-here-2010-1), KTG
2. The security screener's job: manpower, training, history. Normally these are intelligent
men and women, usually students or twentysomethings, who pass a series of
exams and then pass a several-month course . The hours are craptastic but the
pay is decent, and a lot of students prefer it to shiftwork or waitressing. Passing the course is difficult but
not arduous, and in the end you are really being taught guidelines on interrogation and then set loose to
use your judgment -- if you have a red flag to raise, then you just call over a senior screener who has more
work a screener's job in the US. Now before you say it in the comments, recognize that this isn't just a
matter of getting over our objections to race-based screening. That would be one hurdle
(though maybe a diminishing one, given Obama's acknowledgment that country-based screening does
make some sense). Beyond that though, where are we goign to get this amazing security force? If you
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actual threat, it's not huge, so adding billions in lost dollars and time to the already miserable civil aviation
system would be a horrible idea.
470,000 domestic passengers, roughly comparable to the 10 million total served at Sacramento, the
airport I use most often. Amsterdam served 47.4 million total, and Detroit served 35.1 million total in 2008.
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2NC
2010, Israels Airport Security, Object is Envy, Is Hard to Emulate Here, The
Jewish Daily Forward; http://forward.com/articles/122781/israel-s-airportsecurity-object-of-envy-is-hard/, KTG
We could all do a lot worse than to learn from the Israeli model , wrote
David Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee on The Huffington Post. To critics of the
Israeli profiling system, Harris replied that it is more sophisticated than simple classification according to
groups and that Israels procedures have worked, with a minimum of inconvenience for the vast majority
It is
possible to learn from the Israeli model, as Harris suggested, but experts
agree adopting it in its entirety would be impractical. Israel has only
one main international airport that serves, at its peak, no more than
10 million passengers a year. This is comparable to an airport the
size of the San Juan airport in Puerto Rico and is much smaller than
of travelers, who spend no more time at the airport than their American counterparts.
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HSR Negative
The recent DOT budget has funded High Speed Rail for
the future
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget proposes $47 billion over six years to continue
construction of a National high-speed rail network. It will place
passenger rail on equal footing with other surface transportation
pro- grams; include funding for both Amtrak and new core
express, regional, and emerging corridors; and keep the
country on track toward a system that gives 80 percent of Americans
access to a passenger rail system featuring high-speed service within 25 years. This is
an important step in a long-term investment plan to develop this critical transportation alternative
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Geothermal CP
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1NC
Text: The United States federal government should
substantially increase its development and
implementation of geothermal energy projects in the
United States.
Geothermal Energy solves caseis clean and sustainable
and natural.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2009, Geothermal
delivery system (ductwork), and a heat exchanger-a system of pipes buried in the shallow ground near the
building. In the winter, the heat pump removes heat from the heat exchanger and pumps it into the indoor
air delivery system. In the summer, the process is reversed, and the heat pump moves heat from the
The Earth's heat-called geothermal energy-escapes as steam at a hot springs in Nevada. Credit: Sierra
Pacific In the United States,
reservoirs for the generation of electricity. Some geothermal power plants use the steam from a reservoir
to power a turbine/generator, while others use the hot water to boil a working fluid that vaporizes and then
Direct-use
applications include heating buildings, growing plants in
greenhouses, drying crops, heating water at fish farms, and several
industrial processes such as pasteurizing milk. Hot dry rock resources occur at
turns a turbine. Hot water near the surface of Earth can be used directly for heat.
depths of 3 to 5 miles everywhere beneath the Earth's surface and at lesser depths in certain areas.
Access to these resources involves injecting cold water down one well, circulating it through hot fractured
rock, and drawing off the heated water from another well. Currently, there are no commercial applications
energy a no-brainer in some places, but heavy upfront costs stops us from realizing the full potential.
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Solves Warming
Solves emissions and warming.
Geothermal Education Office, 2007, Geothermal Energy Plants:
Introductory Levels, Marin County, California;
http://geothermal.marin.org/pwrheat.html, KTG
Geothermal energy is generally considered environmentally friendly.
There are a few polluting aspects of harnessing geothermal energy
(read more about them in the disadvantages section), but these are minor
compared to the pollution associated with conventional fuel sources (e.g.
coal, fossil fuels) The carbon footprint of a geothermal power plant is
minimal. Further development of our geothermal resources is
considered helpful in the fight against global warming. An average
geothermal power plant releases the equivalent of 122 kg CO2 for
every megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity it generates one eight of
the carbon emissions associated with a typical coal power plant.
Solves warmingdoesnt emit vapor, emissions, smokes, and abates
Mercury and Hydrogen Sulfide to help the environment.
Alyssa Kagel, Diana Bates, and Karl Gawell, April 2007, A Guide to
Geothermal Energy and the Environment; Fellows at the Geothermal Energy
Association; http://geo-energy.org/reports/environmental%20guide.pdf, KTG
The visible plumes seen rising from some geothermal power plants are actually water vapor emissions
(steam), not smoke. Because geothermal power plants do not burn fuel like fossil fuel plants, they release
virtually no air emissions. A case study of a coal plant updated with scrubbers and other emissions control
technologies emits 24 times more carbon dioxide, 10,837 times more sulfur dioxide, and 3,865 times more
nitrous oxides per megawatt hour than a geothermal steam plant. Averages of four significant pollutants,
as emitted from geothermal and coal facilities, are listed in the table below. Following the table is a brief
discussion of other emissions that have sometimes been associated with geothermal development.
Hydrogen
sulfide is now routinely abated at geothermal power plants,
resulting in the conversion of over 99.9 percent of the hydrogen
sulfide from geothermal noncondensable gases into elemental sulfur,
which can then be used as a non-hazardous soil amendment and
fertilizer feedstock. Since 1976, hydrogen sulfide emissions have declined from 1,900 lbs/hr to
Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S) (see SO2, above, for impacts and comparative information):
200 lbs/hr or less, although geothermal power production has increased from 500 megawatts (MW) to over
mercury emitters, two facilities at The Geysers in California, release mercury at levels that do not trigger
any health risk analyses under strict California regulations.
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Solves Roads
Geothermal energy piles help in infrastructure
development.
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, January
13, 2013, Use of Geothermal Energy in Transportation Applications,
http://pressamp.trb.org/CallForPapers/CFPDetail.asp?cid=1601, KTG
The session sponsoring Committee encourages all transportation
researchers and practitioners to submit papers for presentation at TRB 2013 Annual Meeting. The
highest quality papers will be eligible for publication in the peer-reviewed Transportation Research Record.
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Solves Noise Pollution
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Avoids Environment DA
Geothermal energy helps the environment
Alyssa Kagel, Diana Bates, and Karl Gawell, April 2007, A Guide to
Geothermal Energy and the Environment; Fellows at the Geothermal Energy
Association; http://geo-energy.org/reports/environmental%20guide.pd, KTG
Geothermal power plants release very few air emissions because
they do not burn fuel like fossil fuel plants. Most fossil fuel power
plant emissions are either a product of fuel combustion or a wasteproduct from that process. Geothermal plants avoid both
environmental impacts associated with burning fuels as well as
those associated with transporting and processing fuel sources.
Geothermal plants emit only trace amounts of nitrogen oxides,
almost no sulfur dioxide or particulate matter, and small amounts of
carbon dioxide. The primary pollutant some geothermal plants must sometimes abate is hydrogen
sulfide, which is naturally present in many subsurface geothermal reservoirs. With the use of advanced
abatement equipment, however, emissions of hydrogen sulfide are regularly maintained below even
transportation of fuel to the power plant, are often omitted from emissions data. Unfortunately, air
emissions comparisons are sometimes misleading, because the emissions data from a geothermal plant
typically includes all emission sources from the well field through the power plant. A better comparison
would include the complete range of emissions from fossil fuel plants. The lack of such data means that
the comparisons that follow generally overstate the comparative emissions from geothermal power, and
while this analytical problem cannot be resolved within the confines of this paper, it should be noted by the
reader. Average life cycle emissions at coal facilities are substantially higher than their average
operational emissions, as show in Figure 13.41 Operational emissions do not consider the effects of coal
mining, transport, construction, and decommissioning. Life cycle emissions from geothermal facilities, in
contrast, generally remain in the same range as operational emissions.
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Avoids Politics
Extend Energy Informativecongress perceives
geothermal as environmentally friendly, sustainable, and
reliable so they support the tech projects for geothermal.
Geothermal Energy is politically popularbipartisan
support because it is perceived as increasing jobs and
decreasing the deficit.
Congressman John Garamendi-D, 2012, Lake County News: Bipartisan
members of Congress champion geothermal energy with letter to 'super
committee, http://www.garamendi.org/node/447, KTG
On Thursday, six Members of Congress sent a bipartisan letter authored by
Congressmen Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena) and John Garamendi (D-Fairfield) to the Joint Select
urging them to
maintain the current revenue sharing for counties as it pertains to
geothermal receipts. "The geothermal energy produced in Californias counties is not only
good for our environment, it reduces our dependence on foreign oil and helps
our economy by spurring green job creation," said Thompson, who represents Lake
County in the US House of Representatives. "The best way to reduce the deficit is by
creating jobs because more jobs means greater revenues and less
need for government assistance, he added. If a community invests in developing
geothermal energy they deserve to get their fair share in returns. I am strongly against
cutting counties share of geothermal revenue because that means
cutting jobs, crippling future green job growth, and stifling our
economic recovery all of which will only make our deficit larger." Members joining in
the call to preserve geothermal energy revenue sharing include
Representatives Mark Amodei (R-Carson City, NV). The Representatives joined in
the call to promote energy independence and preserve this vital
source of revenue for the counties that produce geothermal energy
Committee on Deficit Reduction, commonly referred to as the Super Committee,
Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma), Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas), and Bob Filner (D-San Diego),.
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Politics Links
Plasma Gasification is unpopular.
With
landfill sites reaching capacity around the world, more and more
municipalities are incorporating waste to energy (WtE) technologies into their waste
management plans. Political and planning challenges to one side, modern
technologies have not proven their ability to produce energy or a
investigates claims that the process is 60% more efficient and can produce diesel from waste.
valuable biogas/synthetic gas (syngas) from waste and divert millions of tonnes from reaching landfill.
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Solvency 1NC
1. No national or international standardskills solvency.
Masoud Pourali, 2012, Application of Plasma Gasification Technology in
Waste to Energy Challenges and Opportunities, Senior Member at the
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Georgia Tech;
http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~kcobb/energy/Readings/Pourali.pdf, KTG
1) Lack of Standards: The lack of standards on plasma gasification
technology endorsed by nationally or interna- tionally known
organization, is one of the most important contributing factors in
project development difficulties
2. No return on investment deters outside investment
Masoud Pourali, 2012, Application of Plasma Gasification Technology in
Waste to Energy Challenges and Opportunities, Senior Member at the
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Georgia Tech;
http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~kcobb/energy/Readings/Pourali.pdf, KTG
2) Initial Cost and Return on Investment: Another major impediment
of developing plasma gasification technology for WTE is its financial
justification. Typically, the installed cost of a plasma gasification plant is
approximately around $5,000 per kW. This cost is higher than the
installed cost of a modern natural gas fired combined cycle power
plant. For this reason, currently, a plasma gasification plant is economic only
where tipping fees for MSW are high, electric rates are high, and the
municipality faces an economically painful waste-management crisis. In
addition, due to relatively high cost of operation and maintenance on
one hand, and the amount of syngas generated on the other, the
return on investment time for these plants is considered long
comparing to similar size industrial facilities.
3. Lack of historical data, no prototypes, no SynGas transportation,
absence of regulations, and skepticism causes failure.
Masoud Pourali, 2012, Application of Plasma Gasification Technology in
Waste to Energy Challenges and Opportunities, Senior Member at the
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Georgia Tech;
http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~kcobb/energy/Readings/Pourali.pdf, KTG
3) Skepticism on Environmental Effects: Lack of histori- cal data,
limited number of prototype units and absence of government
regulations, caused skepticism on environmental effects of plasma
gasification technology. First, the generated syngas is produced at
almost atmosphere pressure and that alone, causes concern on reliability of gas
collection systems. The answer is simple: incorporate redundancy. Other critique on syngas
is focused on scrubbing system. It is obvious that the syngas that exits the plasma
chamber needs several layers of cleansing to remove some of the unwanted elements. The distress
comes on how those elements are stored, transported and disposed.
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2NC
They slag they create for roads failsno prototypes, is toxic, and no
compatible monitoring agencies.
Masoud Pourali, 2012, Application of Plasma Gasification Technology in
Waste to Energy Challenges and Opportunities, Senior Member at the
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Georgia Tech;
http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~kcobb/energy/Readings/Pourali.pdf, KTG
Finally, there are questions on slag exiting from the bottom of the
chamber. Several independent tests on prototype units had been
performed and level of toxics in inert material seemed to be several
folds less than permitted level in some cases, and below detectable
level in other cases. Europlasma [28] as part of Vivaldi Programme provided similar test results
which they were validated by French Nuclear Agency. How- ever, given that there is no
certifying or monitoring agency in the United States dedicated to
this task, it is typically difficult to convince skeptics.
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Roads FL
Asphalt contractors arent worried supply shortages
their biggest challenge is the economy
Lisa Cleaver, October 29th, 2012, editor at For Construction Pros, a
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Solvency 1NC
The Panama Canal will not change US commerce and will
not necessitate dredgingit only will expand Pacific
goods.
Theodore Prince, Supply Chain Quarterly, 2012, Panama
Canal Expansion: Game Changer, Or More of the Same?
http://www.supplychainquarterly.com/topics/Logistics/201201panama/, KTG
Some ports and ocean carriers expect significant new business to
come their way follo, wing the Panama Canal expansion. But do the
"shipper math," says the author, and it's clear that U.S. distribution
patterns are unlikely to change much. The expansion of the Panama
Canal, set for completion in 2014the canal's centennialcould become a
point of inflection for trans-Pacific goods movement . Many stakeholders
believe the expansion offers a game-changing opportunity, and there has been a great deal of speculation,
analysis, and publicity regarding its anticipated benefits. There is no doubt that an expanded canal will
allow larger vessels to ply the all-water route from Asia to the East and Gulf Coast regions of North
America. It's also clear that the expansion will significantly increase the canal's capacity and will support
that are relying on the canal expansion to generate astronomical post-2014 growth will be very
disappointed. A look at this issue from both the shipper's and the carrier's point of view explains why.
Thanks to
aggressive engineering, process improvements, and commercial
innovations, the ACP has already been successful in facilitating
cargo diversions from the USWC. The canal expansion will ensure that this market share is
remove a major chokepoint and ensure sufficient capacity well into the future.
protected and maintained. The canal may also become a driver of transportation and logistics growth in
do well to remember the words of former Montreal Mayor Jean Drapeau, who said, "The Olympics can no
more lose money than a man can have a baby." Following the 1976 Olympics, the city was left with a debt
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Navy 1NC
Naval ships will become faster to accommodate for more
port congestiondredging is unnecessary because
number of ships wont increase.
Theodore Prince, Supply Chain Quarterly, 2012, Panama
Canal Expansion: Game Changer, Or More of the Same?
http://www.supplychainquarterly.com/topics/Logistics/201201panama/, KTG
Once carriers establish their rotations (the order in which they call at
various ports) vessel-deployment decisions are largely based on
transit times. The decision process, however, is a "Rubik's Cube" of
possibilities and tradeoffs. Since 1980, container ships have become larger (up to
15,000+ TEUs) and faster (upwards of 25 knots). However, the faster the steaming speed, the more fuel is
consumed. At the same time, faster speed means fewer vessels are
needed to maintain a fixed-day-of-the-week service. The established order of
larger ships and ever-faster transit times was disrupted by the market conditions of 2008-2009, when freight rates
To
reduce fuel costs, ship lines implemented "slow steaming" ( 15-18 knots)
and "super-slow steaming" (10-15 knots). While this strategy required them to add vessels, there
were plenty available at a reasonable price7 and the fuel savings were great enough to
plunged and fuel prices spiked. Bunker fuel pricing has ranged from US $250 to $750 per ton in the last five years.
Alt Causes:
a) Petroleum energy use is decreasing naval readiness
now
United States Navy no date (The Department of the Navys Energy Goals no date
cited. Navy.mil.), KTG
The United States Navy and Marine Corps rely far too much on
petroleum, a dependency that degrades the strategic position of our
country and the tactical performance of our forces. The global
supply of oil is finite, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find and
exploit, and over time cost continues to rise.
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by the IFAD, IMF,OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, the WTO, IFPRI and the UN HLTF; Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development; http://www.oecd.org/trade/agricultural-trade/48152638.pdf, KTG
. By 2050 the worlds population is expected to have reached about 9 billion people and the demand for food to have increased by between 70% and
100%. This alone is sufficient to exert pressure on commodity prices. According to the latest OECD/FAO medium term outlook projections, prices of crops and most livestock products will be higher in both real and
nominal terms during the decade to 2019 than they were in the decade before the 2007/08 price spikes. If the rate of growth of agricultural production does not keep pace with demand, upward pressure on prices
will result. A demand or supply shock in a situation where the supply-demand balance is already tight, can, for the reasons explained in the previous paragraph, result in increased volatility around the upward
19. The demand for food and feed crops for the production of
biofuels is another significant factor.
trend.
During the 2007-2009 period biofuels accounted for a significant share of global use of several
crops 20% for sugar cane, 9% for vegetable oil and coarse grains and 4% for sugar beet. Projections encompass a broad range of possible effects but all suggest that biofuel production will exert considerable
upward pressure on prices in the future. For example, according to one study international prices for wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds and vegetable oil could be increased by 8%, 13%, 7% and 35% respectively10.
biofuel
production will aggravate the price inelasticity of demand that
contributes to volatility in agricultural prices. 20. Agricultural
commodity prices are becoming increasingly correlated with oil
prices. Oil prices affect agricultural input prices directly and
indirectly
Moreover, as long as governments impose mandates (obligations to blend fixed proportions of biofuels with fossil fuels, or binding targets for shares of biofuels in energy use),
(through the price of fuel and fertiliser, for example). In addition, depending on the relative prices of agricultural crops and oil, biofuel production may become profitable (without
government support) in some OECD countries. Financial investment in commodities may also have contributed to an increasing correlation between oil and non-oil commodity prices because of the significant share
of such investment that tracks indexes containing a basket of different commodities. High and volatile oil prices (if that is what is expected) could therefore contribute to higher and more volatile agricultural prices,
through higher input costs, higher demand for the commodities used in the production of biofuels (sugar, maize, vegetable oils), through competition for land with commodities that are not used directly for the
the 2007/2008
. Stocks can be drawn down in response to a supply or demand shock, but once they have been depleted, supply can
no longer be increased until new production comes on board. Even expectations of depleted stocks may lead prices to rise sharply. The low stock levels observed in recent years have been attributed to the partial
dismantling of price support and intervention purchase schemes in some OECD countries, as well as to correction of the quality of information on private and government held stocks in important producing and
consuming countries. Stocks were rebuilt during 2009 and the first part of 2010 but currently stocks are again being depleted. If stock levels 10 PRICE VOLATILITY IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL MARKETS: POLICY
RESPONSES 11 remain low in major markets, and projections based on existing knowledge of market conditions and policy settings suggest that they may, the risk of volatility in prices will remain high.
price rises
Canada,
another important supplier, experienced weather related low
yields for several crops
drought followed by fire in the Russian
Federation,
these weather-related events are
cyclical
climate change will
lead to worsening
conditions in some arid and semi-arid regions where agricultural
production is already difficult
the
in
2007/2008 and again in 2010. In 2008, an already tight market situation for wheat was aggravated by drought in Australia, which is an important supplier of wheat to world markets.
also
. More recently,
fears about the Australian and Argentinean crops, and several downward revisions of US crop forecasts in late 2010 and early 2011 have brought strong market reactions and
transitory in nature,
, while temperate regions in particular, but not exclusively, may benefit. It is also thought that climate change will lead to
more frequent extreme events such as droughts, heat waves and floods. Clearly, climate change will provoke some adjustment of production patterns around the world, as well as increased risks of local or regional
production patterns, particularly of food and feed grains, and world markets are more dependent on supplies from the Black Sea region and other, newer, agricultural production regions than in the past. Yields in
these regions are less stable and supply more variable than in some other parts of the world where natural conditions are better and where application of the most up-to-date technologies and management
. While such resource constraints are, thus far, more local than global in nature, growing
concern is evident and the associated uncertainty may imply upward pressure on prices and continuing or increased volatility.
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and
in some cases provoking price increases that were otherwise inexplicable in terms of the market fundamentals. Inappropriate policy responses also contributed to volatility and could continue to do so unless the
. How to avoid repetition of these types of damaging private and public reactions is addressed later in this report.
although not to the full extent of the depreciation. The opposite occurs when the dollar appreciates as was the case from mid-2008
onwards. These currency movements added to the amplitude of the price changes observed. (They also help to explain why demand remained strong in countries where the currency was appreciating against the
dollar and why falling prices were not fully felt in the same countries once the dollar began to appreciate again.) Exchange rate volatility per se is 11 12 PRICE VOLATILITY IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL
MARKETS: POLICY RESPONSES beyond the scope of this report but if the future is marked by increased exchange rate volatility this will also have repercussions for the volatility of international prices of
commodities.
27.
There is no doubt that investment in financial derivatives markets for agricultural commodities increased strongly in the mid-2000s, but there is disagreement about the role of financial
primary functions of commodity futures markets. This topic will be taken up in more detail in Chapter 3.
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of property and crops vulnerable to climate impacts. GAOs prescience has proven evident in recent weeks. The Midwest (to include Illinois,
Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin) has experienced debilitating
extremes of drought and floods. Every county in Kansas and 89 of the 93 counties in Nebraska have been declared drought emergencies well
The
implications of the drought and flood cycle are far-reaching for U.S.
markets and policy. According to the USDA and the EPA, the affected
region accounts for 85% of U.S. corn production, 81% of U.S.
soybean production, and approximately 67% of U.S. wheat
production. Corn exports comprise the largest net contribution to
the U.S. agricultural trade balance of all agricultural commodities highlighting the importance of developing effective crop crisis response. Drought and flood will continue
to persist as long-term problems. Yet the current fiscally constrained
environment further limits the governments ability to respond in an
ad-hoc fashion to crop disasters resulting from climate change . GAO
before harvest season. Simultaneously, 48 of the 102 counties in Illinois experienced flooding and devastation of crop land.
recommends a new look at the way federal crop insurance functions, taking into account permanent changes in climate patterns that have
emerged since the inception of federal crop and flood insurance programs. It also recommends concerted efforts at data collection and
analysis to ascertain the impacts of long-term climate change exposure- both on agriculture and the structure of insurance. Most importantly,
the GAO recommends a stronger relationship between the Secretary of Agriculture and the Secretary of Homeland Security regarding the
effects of climate change on agricultural production- establishing U.S. food security as a matter of national security.
Forum; http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/presentations/Glauber.pdf
Exports to China are projected to be $22 billion , down $1.4 billion from last
years record, but for the second straight year edging out Canada ($21 billion)
as the number one market for U.S. agricultural exports (figure 2). U.S.
agricultural exports to China have grown, on average, almost 20 percent annually
since FY 2005. Soybeans and cotton have dominated U.S. agricultural
exports to China, accounting for as much as 75 percent of total
agricultural exports in recent years, although red meats, coarse
grains, and feeds and fodder have all shown strong growth (figure 3).
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DA
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1NC
1. Uniqueness and LinkFunds in the Harbor Maintenance
Trust Fund are high but stretched tightfunding Short
Sea Shipping drains the HMTF.
Larry Ehl, January 29, 2012, Harbor Maintenance Tax Subject of
Wednesday Hearing in House, Larry Ehl is a transportation expert from TID;
Tranportation Issues Daily; http://www.transportationissuesdaily.com/harbormaintenance-tax-subject-of-wednesday-hearing-in-house/, KTG
The Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF) provides funds for the United States Army
Corps of Engineers (Corps) to dredge federally maintained harbors to their authorized depths and widths.
The HMTF is funded by the Harbor Maintenance Tax (HMT), under which certain users of U.S. coastal and
Great Lakes harbors pay a tariff of $1.25 per $1,000 in cargo value passing through these waters. The tax
A
potential concern with the structure of the HMTF arises with respect
to what is known as short sea shipping. Some have argued that the HMT
itself is a major reason why very little non-bulk commercial cargo is
transported using inland and coastal waterways. Currently, the use of
short sea shipping, which involves the movement of cargo along coastal and inland waters,
would reduce this balance in the HMTF, shifting away from other
Army Corps projects, while it is primarily limited to bulk cargo while commercial non-bulk cargo
dimensions could increase both the cost of shipping and the risk of grounding or collision.
As a result, only about 35% of America's navigation channels are currently at their authorized depth and width, which
means that vessels calling our ports cannot be fully loaded or may be restricted to a one way transit. The entire maritime
industry, therefore, is grateful for the oversight provided by your committees to ensure this tax on port users is used for
its intended purpose -- ensuring that the navigation channels leading to our ports are regularly dredged to their
authorized dimensions so that vessels calling our ports can deliver essential commodities and can take American made
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dredging - over one dollar for every thousand dollars worth of imported and domestic cargo they move - while only
getting back half as much benefit in return. Current estimates are that users of our nation's waterways are
paying approximately $1.4 billion per year in harbor maintenance taxes
which is about the amount the Army Corps of Engineers has determined is the
annual need for maintenance dredging . Yet, this past fiscal year only about $820
million was appropriated for channel maintenance. That still leaves, according to the
most recent estimates I've seen, a surplus in the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund of about
$6.4 billion and growing. This shortfall in funding is of particular concern to regional or niche ports, which
are usually not included in the President's budget, because they generally handle less tonnage than the major container
and bulk cargo ports. There are many ports in Massachusetts in need of
which
every port will need to have channels that are 50-feet deep in order to handle the largest ships that will traverse the
expanded Panama Canal when that modernization project is set to be complete in 2014. But many will, and others will
need to be dredged to handle the larger vessels that will be used in moving cargo from the larger hub ports to regional
ports. In the meantime, individual ports have been dredging our own berths at our own cost, buying cranes that can
handle these larger vessels, and investing in terminal infrastructure. Indeed, it's estimated that seaports invest more than
$2.5 billion every year to maintain and improve their infrastructure, which is why ports are often discouraged that federal
investments in maintenance dredging have not kept pace with their own. The larger issue is that spending on
maintenance dredging is particularly critical at this time, and not only because of the larger ships that ports will soon be
expected to handle, but to ensure that the Administration's National Export Initiative of doubling U.S. exports can be
fulfilled. U. S. ports are the gateways for international trade and having a modern, reliable and cost-effective marine
transportation system will expedite the delivery of U.S. exports to the global marketplace. Delays in the movement of
exported cargo will only hurt the competiveness of U.S exports. As is true throughout the country, the Port of Boston is a
vital economic engine for the New England region -- carrying cargo, opening markets for domestic goods, creating jobs
and generating economic prosperity for our citizens. American seaports carry all but about 1% of the country's overseas
cargo. They help generate almost 30% of Gross Domestic Product and support more than 13 million jobs. America's
economic future depends on modern ports with facilities adequate enough, and channels deep enough, to keep pace with
meet current needs . I would also urge the passage of H.R. 104 that would
require that the annual Harbor Maintenance Tax revenue be made fully
available to the Army Corps of Engineers for maintenance dredging in its annual
appropriation. No obstacle can exist in HMT surplus . I, along with many other
Port Directors, strongly support passage of H.R. 104 so that our marine transportation system
can remain efficient and continue to serve as a national and regional
economic engine.
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as post-Panamax
modern U.S. navigation system will require a coordinated effort between government, industry and other
stakeholders. Critical Need for Capacity Maintenance and Expansion Congress has directed the USACE
Institute for Water Resources to submit to the Senate and House committees on appropriations this report
on how the Congress should address the critical need for additional port and inland waterways
modernization to accommodate post-Panamax vessels. This report identifies the critical need for capacity
maintenance and expansion on both the nations inland waterways and blue water ports. This identification
has been accomplished through an evaluation of the future demand for capacity in terms of freight
forecasts and vessel size expectations and an evaluation of the current capacity of the nations inland
international trade is
expected to grow as the worlds population and standard of living
grow. Export of U.S. agricultural goods could increase as larger bulk vessels reduce the cost of delivery
waterways and blue water ports. Despite the recent worldwide recession,
to foreign markets. Trade at the nations blue water ports is expected to expand as the population grows,
especially in regions where most of that growth occurs. As international trade expands, the number of
numbers, which ports they will call, how deep calling vessels will draft and, consequently, how deep and
wide navigation channels and other related navigation infrastructure must be. One pivotal uncertainly is
the role that transshipment hubs in the Caribbean or on U.S. shores could play in transferring freight from
large vessels to smaller feeder vessels. Over time these uncertainties will be reduced as experience
widths, turning basin size, sufficient bridge heights and port support structures such as dock and crane
capacity to offload and onload goods. Vessels can be filled to their weight capacity or their volume
capacity. Vessels loaded to their weight capacity sail at their maximum design draft; they sit deeper in the
water. The deepest channel requirements are likely to be driven by these weight trade services. The
Asian export trade, however, is considered a cube trade (i.e. volume trade). For volume trade routes,
channel width and turning basin size may be of greater importance than additional channel depth at some
ports, as vessels loaded to their volume capacity often sail at significantly less than their design draft.
Careful consideration is needed when determining channel depth requirements at U.S. ports for this trade
system can accommodate the forecasted increase in exported agricultural products as long as other nongrain traffic remains at current levels and the system is maintained at current capacity.
Existing
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to pass traffic on demand with lock chambers consistently sized for efficient movement of freight.
Navigation jetties that are planned, constructed and maintained for safe, reliable and efficient freight
Capital investments in navigation locks for replacement, major rehabilitation, or expanded capacity that
are established through a capital investment plan that identifies and prioritizes on a system basis.
Capital investment plans that are shovel-ready as investment funds are identified. An identified
mechanism for the financing of operations, maintenance and capacity improvements. New, large vessels
are typically deployed on the longest and largest trade service Asia to Northern Europe. The smaller
vessels on that service are forced to re-deploy to the next most efficient service for that vessel size. This
cascading continues until the most marginal vessels in the fleet are forced to be scrapped. Cascading
typically increases average vessel size for each trade service, placing demands on the port infrastructure
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Longshore labor rates are another factor that may cause increased costs for cargo shipped
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Solvency 1NC
1. Short Sea Shipping Fails
a) Lack of Awareness and coordination:
Gary A. Lombardo, 2012, Short Sea Shipping: Practices, Opportunities,
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2NC Solvency
Extend first Lombardo cardno shippers have awareness
over Short Sea Shipping meaning there would be intermodal coordination, which leads to solvency failure.
Extend second Lombardo cardthere is too much burden
on the port industry, the HMTF, and seaside industries to
incentivizeleads to no loan guarantees resulting in
failures.
Extend third Lombardo cardno private companies are
interested in investing in the Harbor Maintenance Trust
Fund due to lack of competitive viability. Meaning there is
viability and no funding.
Extend fourth Lombardo cardthere is no coordination
with existing transportation systems such and freight and
trucking to be efficient.
Extend fifth Lombardo cardin order for SSS to be
successful, the freight and trucking industry needs to be
successful as well. Depending on other forms of
transportation overstretches freight and trucking leading
to failure and hiking labor rates.
SSS Fails
a) Too complex to organize.
International Transport Forum, 2008, Short Sea Shipping in
Europe, European Reference of Ministries of Transport; Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development;
http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/IntOrg/ecmt/pubpdf/01ShortSea.p
df, KTG
1. Complex to organise. Red tape and the complexity of throughcarriage involving a maritime leg due to overlapping contracts of
carriage and liability regimes are often criticised. Public health
inspections, customs formalities and dangerous goods regulations
are cited as obstacles to the development of short sea shipping. Most
of the time, maritime freight transport is part of a multimodal, not a unimodal, operation. Successive
modal transfers entail additional risks and costs for shippers, consignees and forwarders. The problem of
modal transfers and their cost is a general one, shared by all alternatives to road transport as soon as they
form part of a multimodal chain
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position compared to other land transfer terminals. As well as network connections, different standards for
loading units for land and maritime transport are also holding up the development of maritime transport.
Sea containers are not really suitable for European pallets and,
when they are used, stuffing rates are low. Consequently, low returns are a problem
when sea containers are used on land routes.
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Multi-Plank CP
The National Security Council and the Office of
Management and Budget should:
1. Conduct a Quadrennial National Security Review to
develop security strategy
2. Develop common inter-agency terminologies for each
mission area through NSC-led working groups
3. Conduct NSC/OMB mission area reviews for top security
priorities
4. Conduct regular NSC interagency summits
5. The Office of Personal Management should develop a
security career path that would give career professionals
incentives to seek out interagency experience, education,
and training
6. Congress should approve a 10% personnel float for key
civilian agencies to enable interagency education.
First, the counterplan solvesit erases inter-agency
conflict and improves Security.
Clark A. Murdock and Michele A. Flournoy, 2012, Creating a More
Integrated and Effective National Security Apparatus, Murdock is a Senior
Advisor and Director at the Center for Strategic International Studies;
Flournoy is the former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and president of
the Center for a New American Security; report for the Center for Strategic
Leadership at the U.S. Army War College,
http://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/Publications/Chapter%20Six%20-%20Creating
%20a%20More%20Integrated%20and%20Effective%20National%20Security
%20Apparatus.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/Publications/Chapter%20Six
%20-%20Creating%20a%20More%20Integrated%20and%20Effective
%20National%20Security%20Apparatus.pdf, KTG
A robust strategic planning process for national security should
include the following elements: Conduct a Quadrennial National
Security Review (QNSR) to develop U.S. national security strategy
and determine the capabilities required to implement the strategy .
Every four years, at the outset of his or her term, the President should designate a senior national security
official (most likely the National Security Adviser) to lead an interagency process to develop a U.S. national
security strategy and identify the capabilities requiredeconomic, diplomatic, military, informational, and
so onto implement the strategy. The review would engage all of the national security agencies in an
effort to produce both the National Security Planning Guidance described below and the unclassified
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devising a national security strategy for achieving these objectives, identifying the capabilities required to
implement the strategy, and delineating agency roles and responsibilities. Such a process would provide
every administration with an opportunity to conduct a strategic 4 The study team believes the
Congressional requirement for the President to submit a National Security Strategy each year should be
amended to require a Quadrennial Na- tional Security Review instead. 75 The Struggle Against Extremist
Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That Foster Terrorism review of U.S. national security policies and
capability requirements and to define a way forward for the future. The QNSR should logically precede and
Develop
common terminologies for each interagency mission area, using
NSC-led interagency working groups. These working groups should focus
provide the conceptual basis for agency reviews like DoDs Quadrennial Defense Review.5
initially on developing common definitions of the mission in each of the four areas, and then identify and
terms, but basic agreement on the key terms used to define a mission area and its critical tasks
inherent in the budget process, the study team believes this strengthened 14 This section describing the
current process draws heavily from an unpublished working paper developed for the BG-N project by Anne
Richard, entitled Interagency Resource Allocations: Understanding and Reforming How Resources Are
Allocated, November 2003. 86 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That
Foster Terrorism review process with NSC providing the policy focus and OMB the fiscal focus should be
confined to very specific mission areas that are among the most critical Presidential priorities and require
above. This guidance would articulate the baseline capabilities and programs in key mission areas and
Second,
OMB should be the lead
would be issued in the spring, prior to development of the agencies respective budgets.
once the Presidents National Security Planning Guidance is issued,
Senior Director for a given region should convene on a regular basis, on behalf of the National Security
Adviser and the President, a summit of the senior USG officials with policy execution responsibilities in
These summits
would review current and planned activities in the region in light of
the Presidents priorities, policies, and planning guidance. They
should also identify ways to improve unity of effort and develop
strategies by which the United States could shape the environment
and possibly prevent crises. These summits might also provide useful bottom-up input into
the region, including (but not limited to) the relevant ambassadors and COCOM.
interagency processes for crisis action planning, as described in the next chapter. 5 AoRs that differ from
OSD(P) ISAs breakdown. NORTHCOM has the US, Canada and Mexico, SOUTHCOM has Central and South
America, CENTCOM has the Middle East and the Newly Independent States of former USSR, EUCOM has
Greenland, Europe, Russia and Africa, and PACOM has India, China, the rest of the Pacific, Australia and
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Antarctica. 89 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That Foster Terrorism
In the longer term, the U.S. government should consider establishing standing Regional Security Councils,
composed of senior representatives from all of the national security departments, that would coordinate
U.S. policy execution on a day-to-day basis and seek approaches to shape the regional environment in
the creation of the Joint Service Officer designation and associated incentives for officers to seek joint
service as a way of advancing their careers. Once joint service became essentially a requirement for
promotion to General or Flag Officer, the best talent in each of the Services began to seek out joint
assignments. Building on this model, OPM should work with Congress and the Cabinet agencies involved
in national security to develop a national security career path for civilian professionals.21 Like the Joint
Service Officer model, this 21 This system is very similar in approach to the National Security Service
Corps proposed in the Phase III report of the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (i.e. the
Hart-Rudman Commission). See Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change, The Phase III
Report of the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (Febru- ary 15, 2001), 118. The Phase 1
Report of the Beyond-Goldwater Nichols project recom- mended creation of a Defense Professional Corps
that would apply to DoD career civilians; in Phase 2, the BG-N study team realized that in order to build the
needed capacity for interagency operations in the federal government, expansion of the Defense
Professional Corps concept to the broader set of national security agencies would be essential. 92 The
Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That Foster Terrorism system would create
incentives for civilian national security professionals to rotate to assignments outside their home
organizations, thereby broadening the experience of individual careerists and creating a pool of civilian
professionals with experience in interagency policy development, programs, and operations.22 To develop
and oversee implementation of a national security career path, the Office of Personnel Management should
chair an interagency oversight board composed of representatives from each of the participating agencies.
This board would identify the positions in the federal government that would be designated as
interagency duty assignments (IDA) and determine the prerequisites for each. The board would also
monitor the development of participating careerists to encourage home agencies to ensure that when
individuals return from rotational assignments, they are placed in positions in their home agencies that
Executive Service (SES) for national security related positions contingent on completing a rotational
assignment would radically alter the prevailing view in government that outside assignments virtually
guarantee stepping off the promotion track. Linking rotational assignments to accelerated promotion
consideration for career civil servants at lower GS-levels (for example, those in Grades 13 and 14) would
push the incentives further down into the career ranks and speed up the culture change needed to move
from stove-piping to interagency 22 Members of the Foreign Service, while often perceived as different
from individuals serving in GS positions, are also civil servants. The BG-N study team views the Foreign
Service as an important component of the larger pool of career civil servants that would participate in this
national security career path. 23 If OPM and the agencies do not act in a timely fashion, Congress should
step in to cre- ate the necessary legislation. 93 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the
Conditions That Foster Terrorism integration. Home agencies, not the OPM-chaired interagency oversight
board, would retain control over the promotion process for their employees in this proposed system. All
agencies participating in the system, however, would need to comply with the OPM mandated
requirements that, to be eligible for SES, candidates must have completed an IDA rotation, and that GS13s and GS-14s who complete an IDA will be immediately eligible for step increases and considered for
professionals who want to join the Senior Executive Service or Senior Foreign Service will be required to
complete an IDA assignment, they also should be required to complete some amount of interagency
education or training before being promoted. In addition to existing billets for civilians at the National War
College and the Foreign Service Institute Senior Seminar, Congress should create a new Center for
Interagency and Coalition Operations that would focus on training national security professionals in
planning, managing, and overseeing complex contingencies and on preparing for deployments to specific
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operations. Should the Department of Homeland Security establish an educational center for its senior
professionals, participation in that program might also fulfill the education and training requirements
associated with the national security career path. Critical to making a national security career path work
is creating a personnel float for participating agencies that will enable rotations, education, and training
as careerists move through the ranks. Congress allows the Military Services 10-15 percent additional end
strength to create a float sufficient to ensure the joint service officer process can work. A similar approach
is needed for national security agencies, beginning at the GS-13 level and above, to enable them to meet
the professional development requirements of the national security career path. Such a float would not be
cost-free, but the return on investment in terms of the enhanced performance of government operations
would be considerable. 94 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That
Foster Terrorism Creating a pool of career professionals with significant experience in interagency policy
development and operations could help to break down the cultural barriers between agencies that too
Yucca Negative
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1NC
Yucca Mountain is native territory of the Western
Shoshonefederal treaties.
Corbin Harney, Western Shoshone spiritual leader, October 2000, Yucca
mountain restored to them. Because of U.S. nuclear testing in Nevada, the Western Shoshone Nation is
already the most bombed nation on earth. They suffer from widespread cancer, leukemia, and other
diseases as a result of fallout from more than 1,000 atomic explosions on their territory.
TOGETHER.
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Venus Orbit CP
111
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112
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1NC
Text: The United States federal government should
develop and implement launch capabilities and
technologies and launch all nuclear waste and spent fuel
into a stable orbit between the Earth and Venus. Well
clarify.
The counterplan solves.
Ramusat et al., June 1 2006, Nuclear Waste Disposal in Space: A Long
Term Solution, David Iranzo-Gerus and Olivier Gogdet of the Astrium
European Space Company, Guy Ramusat of the European Space Agency HQ,
Nikolai Slyunyayev at the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau of rocket infrastructure in
Ukraine; 7th International Symposium on Launcher Technology,
http://www.laka.org/docu/boeken/pdf/6-01-5-59-06.pdf, KTG
Space disposal could therefore become today a viable alternative. Even if the new world situation today
could make this possible, the idea was suggested several decades ago . Past studies
Reference [R5] in 1978 showed one of the first ideas. Their proposal was based on the following principles: Shuttle
the launchers mass constraint only high activity long half-life non-reusable elements are concerned for economical (high
kilo-in-orbit price) and ecological reasons (several tens of tons of toxic propellants used by the Shuttle for one ton in Earth
maximized, while assuring radiation shielding, thermal control, reentry and impact protection. The ratio proposed was
15% in this study (this leads to a launch mass of 500 tons per year for the yearly production plus 10 000 tons for the
already stocked waste). The orbits retained for the disposal were: High Earth Orbit (55000 km, LEO+4000 4 7th
International Symposium on Launcher Technology Nuclear Waste Disposal in Space: A Long Term Solution m/s), Lunar
Soft Landing (LEO+6053 m/s), Solar Orbit (0,86 UA, LEO+4450 m/s) and Solar System Escape (LEO+8750 m/s). Another
The main
conclusions of this paper were the following: The huge amount of spent
fuel rods (77100 tons by 2020 for US civilian reactors) justifies the development of a
reliable and low recurring cost launching system (10 000 tons launched per year).
Ground launch systems are proposed as alternatives: laser and
microwave propulsion, electromagnetic rail-guns. These system offer
low payload masses but quick turn around times. The simplest orbit was
considered, namely solar system escape and was assured by a continuous thrust by laser. An alternative
orbit proposed was a solar orbit inside Venus which would guarantee
HLW retrieval by future generations if this was considered valuable.
paper was presented ([R4]) in 1999 proposing an alternative to the Shuttle launcher.
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nuclear part in the overall electricity production, to the increase of the electricity part in the overall energy
consumption and to the increase in the electricity needs. A 1% per year increase was considered
afterwards, corresponding to only the increase of electricity needs. It was considered that the mass of
waste to launch per GW x year of electricity produced was 71.4 kg. In this numbers plutonium and
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2NC Solvency
The counterplan is an amazingly innovative solutionit
drives down launch costs and solves in the long term.
Ramusat et al., June 1 2006, Nuclear Waste Disposal in Space: A Long
analysis shows that this could be a very attractive long term solution
from a safety point of view and with an accessible cost . Further studies in
cooperation between the space and nuclear sectors will be required in the coming years to analyze in
detail this solution and its advantages with respect to ground storage.
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WIPP CP
Text: The United States federal government should
develop and expand the permanent Waste Isolation Power
Planet repository.
Solves and avoids the link to politics-it would be
politically insulated and unlike Yucca, wouldnt be
plagued by lack of constituency support.
Center for Environment, Commerce & Energy, May 28, 2012,
WIPP Can Supplement Or Replace Yucca Mountain The Center, founded in
1985, is an environmental organization dedicated to protecting the
environment, enhancing human, animal and plant ecologies, promoting the
efficient use of natural resources and expanding participation in the
environmental movement; Norris McDonald.
Since opening in 1999, WIPP has operated so smoothly and safely that
Carlsbad is lobbying the feds to expand the project to take the
nuclear mother lode: 160,000 more tons of the worst high-level
nuclear waste in the countrythings like the half-melted reactor core of Three Mile Island
and old nuclear fuel rodsthat are residing at aging nuke plants. Though
taxpayers have already spent some $12 billion mining out and
engineering Yucca Mountain, 90 miles from Las Vegas, power brokers in
Nevada fought the congressionally approved project from the getgo. Bowing to Nimbyand Nevadas powerful Senator Harry Reid
two years ago President Barack Obamas Administration declared
Yucca DOA. Contractors have since laid off some 1,000 workers there. On Mar. 26, 1999 the
townsfolk of Carlsbad gathered to cheer the first truck to deliver waste to WIPP. New Mexico, in
agreeing to WIPP, required that Congress enshrine in law a promise
that the feds would not send high-level waste into the state. WIPP
wont be the next Yucca unless that issue is wrangled, and reversed ,
by Albuquerque and Washington, DC. Carlsbad has perfect geology for the waste because it sits atop the
biggest salt deposit in America, stretching from New Mexico clear to Kansas. The 3,000-foot salt layer is
the thickest in the country, is nearly impervious to seismic activity, quickly heals any cracks or faults and
remains completely impermeable, with no way for any water to get in or for any radiation to escape. The
waste drums final resting place is down an elevator 2,150 feet into the salt. WIPPs tunnels and rooms
have 15-foot ceilings, enough to stack drums three high. So far its swallowed 10,200 shipments totaling
200,000 tons impregnated with 5 tons of plutonium. To get that stuff to WIPP drivers have logged 12
million miles with loaded trucks and 10 million miles empty.
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To seek
some common ground Obama then set up the Blue Ribbon
Commission on Americas Nuclear Future. The BRC, as its known, is
tasked with looking at all the options. It likes WIPPa lot. According
to its draft report last summer the BRC will insist that a consentbased approach be applied to any future site selection. WIPP, it
wrote, is a model of how that can be done.
Administration declared Yucca DOA. Contractors have since laid off some 1,000 workers there.
nations suggests that any attempt to force a top- down, federally mandated solution over the objections of
a state or communityfar from being more efficientwill take longer, cost more, and have lower odds of
ultimate success. By contrast, the approach we recommend is explicitly adaptive, staged, and consent-
this type of approach can provide the flexibility and sustain the public trust and confidence needed to see
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Enviro Justice DA
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119
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1NC
The plan is environmentally unjust towards the Western
Shoshone and local nativesYucca has cultural and
traditional value to the Native Americans which the
federal govt. infringes on.
Grace Thorpe, 1997, Environmental Justice Case Study: The Yucca
Mountain High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository and the Western Shoshone,
former prof. at UMich,
http://www.umich.edu/~snre492/kendziuk.html#Problem, KTG
Over the last forty years, many Native American communities have been constantly exposed to low-level
and Britain to test nuclear weapons for many years. The Western Shoshone National Council considers
these tests to be more like bombs, because of the destruction that results from these experiments. Since
1951, approximately 1,350 square miles of their 43,000 square mile territory have been destroyed by
hundreds of craters and tunnels that are no more than unsupervised nuclear waste dumps. There have
been environmental monitoring reports issued throughout the years concerning the status of NTS, dated all
the way from the 1950's to 1991. These reports prove the presence of substantial low-level radioactive
releases of iodine, strontium, cesium, plutonium, and noble gases in outlying areas, with higher
Residents have
reported unusual animal deaths, human hair loss, the soil in the area
turning a dark black color, along with increases of cancer and birth
defects.
concentrations found in reservation communities in close proximity to NTS.
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The problem for the Western Shoshone is that the United States see
the land as under their control under plenary federal power. The
Western Shoshone argue that the basis of this plenary federal power
is rooted in the colonial arrogance of the 17th century, and the laws
that gave the United States Government control over the Native
Americans are "extensions of Christian claims to world supremacy."
Collective indifference to these conditions on the part of both white and black America is a poor reflection
on the nations character. This collective refusal to acknowledge the genocide further exacerbates the
aftermath in Native communities and hinders the recovery process. This, too, sets the American situation
apart from the German-Jewish situation: Holocaust denial is seen by most of the world as an affront to the
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biodiversity.58But, she continues, The last 150 years have seen a great holocaust. There have
been more species lost in the past 150 years than since the Ice Age. (During
the same time, Indigenous peoples have been disappearing from the face of
the earth. Over 2,000 nations of Indigenous peoples have gone extinct in the
western hemisphere and one nation disappears from the Amazon rainforest
every year.)59 It is not about us as indigenous peoplesit is about us as a human spe- cies. We
are all related. At issue is no longer the Jewish question or the Indian problem. We must speak
today in terms of the human problem. And it is this problem for which not a final,
but a sustainable, viable solution must be found because it is no longer a matter of
serial genocide, it has become one of collective suicide. As Terrence Des Pres put it, in The
Survivor: At the heart of our problems is that nihilism which was all along the
destiny of Western culture: a nihilism either unacknowledged even as the
bombs fell or else, as with Hitler or Stalin, demonically proclaimed as the
new salvation.60 All of us must now begin thinking and acting in the
dimension and in the interest of the human speciesan intellectual domain
of vita activa that indigenous people have inhabited since time immemorial.
It is this modality of thought as a process of reflection that the civilized
nations must learn from the savage ones. Vine Deloria, in Native American
Spirituality, has attempted to clarify this distinction: American Indians look backwards in time to the
creation of the world and view reality from the perspective of the one species that has the capability to
reflect on the meaning of things. This attitude is generally misunderstood by non-Indians who act as if
reflection and logical thought were synonymous. But reflection is a special art and requires maturity of
personality, certainty of identity, and feelings of equality with the other life forms of the world. It consists,
more precisely, of allowing wisdom to approach rather than seeking answers to self-generated questions.
Such an attitude, then, stands in a polar- ized position to the manner in which society today conducts
itself.61 It is not a matter of moral bookkeeping or of winners and losers in the battle of the most
martyred minority. It is not a matter of comparative victimology, but one of collective survival. The
insistence on incomparability and unique- ness of the Nazi Holocaust is precisely what prohibits our
collective compre- hension of genocide as a phenomenon of Western civilization, not as a re- iterative
series of historical events, each in its own way unique. It is what inhibits our ability to name causes,
anticipate outcomes, and, above all to en- gage in preemptive political and intellectual action in the face
of contemporary exigencies.
Prohibition of genocide
and affirmation of its opposite,the value of life, are an eternal ethical verity, one whose
practical implications necessarily outweigh possible theoretical objections and as such
should lift it above prevailing ideologies or politics. Genocide concerns and potentially
effects all people. People make up a legal system, according to Kelsen. Politics is the expression of conflict
race, class, or nation, nor is it rooted in any one, ethnocentric view of the world.
among competing groups. Those in power give the political system its character, i.e. the state. The state, according
to Kelsen, is nothing but the combined will of all its people. This abstract concept of the state may at first glance
appear meaningless, because in reality not all people have an equal voice in the formation of the characteristics of
But I am not concerned with the characteristics of the state but rather the
essence of the state the people. Without a people there would be no state or legal
system. With genocide eventually there will be no people. Genocide is ultimately a
threat to the existence of all. True, sometimes only certain groups are targeted, as in Nazi Germany.
the state.
Sometimes a large part of the total population is eradicated, as in contemporary Cambodia. Sometimes people are
eliminated regardless of national origin the Christians in Roman times. Sometimes whole nations vanish the
Amerindian societies after the Spanish conquest. And sometimes religious groups are persecuted the
Mohammedans by the Crusaders. The culprit changes: sometimes it is a specific state, or those in power in a state;
occasionally it is the winners vs. the vanquished in international conflicts; and in its crudest form the stronger
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2NC Links
The federal government has no right to infringe on the
Western Shoshone and Paulte tribestransportation is
the BIGGEST CAUSE.
Corbin Harney, Western Shoshone spiritual leader, October 2000, Yucca
Mountain: No Place for Nuclear Waste Nuclear Information and Resource
Service, http://www.nirs.org/radwaste/yucca/yuccaltrbycorbin102400.htm,
KTG
Yucca Mountain, in the heart of the Western Shoshone Nation, is a
place of deep spiritual significance to Shoshone and Pauite peoples.
Despite this, the federal government plans to send there 98 percent
of the radioactivity generated during the entire Nuclear Age . The Department of
Energy (DOE) has already spent 5 billion dollars towards the project and wants to spend 50 billion more to complete it before the end of the decade. The
government has no right to use Yucca Mountain this way. Newe
Sogobia the land guaranteed the Western Shoshone Nation by
treaty includes Yucca Mountain. Even the mere study of the site is
a violation of the treaty. The Shoshone people have made their
wishes clear: they want the DOE off their land and their mountain
restored to them. Because of U.S. nuclear testing in Nevada, the
Western Shoshone Nation is already the most bombed nation on
earth. They suffer from widespread cancer, leukemia, and other
diseases as a result of fallout from more than 1,000 atomic
explosions on their territory. More than 100 grassroots environmental groups, Native and non- Native, organized to gain
broad participation in the Yucca Mountain Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process. But the vast majority of people
who might be affected by this decision still are not aware of the
danger. The Yucca Mountain EIS largely sidesteps the issue of
transport.
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from the nuclear industry. But what about next year? Join the call for "No Nuclear Waste on Native Lands".
Every
single proposal to store high level nuclear waste in North America
targets Native territories. Not only do these proposals represent
immense environmental injustices toward Native peoples, but the
dumps, if authorized, will enable a dying nuclear industry to get
some last breaths. Nuclear waste is the Achilles heel of the industry.
Contact the organizations below to take action. Nuclear Politics and Environmental Injustice
Reactors are filling up with spent radioactive fuel and there is no safe place to put this deadly waste.
The industry
sees this as a political problem, not an environmental one. Targeting
isolated and economically disenfranchised Indians is their one
solution. Help us close this loophole. Join the movement to stop
nuclear waste on Native lands and create the impetus for our society
to move towards wind, solar and other renewable resources.
Utilities will have to close down their plants if they cannot get a waste site authorized.
the 1950's the US occupied a vast expanse of Western Shoshone lands that now comprise the Nevada Test Site 65 miles
northwest of Las Vegas for use as America's nuclear proving ground. During the period of nuclear weapons testing from
1951-1994, the US detonated 904 full-scale nuclear weapons tests, 24 in collaboration with the United Kingdom. The
Western Shoshone Nation with the help of American supporters engaged in active protest against nuclear weapons testing
and the MX inter-continental ballistic missile system planned for the Great Basin. The MX missile system was cancelled
and full-scale nuclear weapons testing ended at the Nevada Test Site. In 1994 the Western Shoshone National Council,
traditional government of the Western Shoshone Nation, began questioning the incidents of cancer and other health
consequences experienced by the Western Shoshone people known to be plausible from exposure to radiation in fallout
from nuclear weapons testing. Reaching out to Southern Paiute neighbors they formed the Nuclear Risk Management for
Native Communities Project to understand what happened to them and educate their communities on culturally
appropriate protective behavior. Collaborating with researchers from Marsh Institute at Clarke University, funded by the
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Center for Disease Control and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the Nuclear Risk Management for
Native Communities project reviewed the Department of Energy, Off-site Radiation Exposure Review Program. What they
found was that the Department of Energy study used a shepherd lifestyle to model Native Americans, but that the
shepherd lifestyle did not accurately replicate the Western Shoshone or Southern Paiute people's lifestyle. Based upon
lifestyle differences alone the Nuclear Risk Management for Native Communities project found that Western Shoshone and
Southern Paiute people were exposed to radiation through unique exposure pathways that included diet, shelter and
mobility. Radiation exposure risk for adults are as much as 15 times greater than non-Native American communities
downwind, as much as 30 times greater risk for children, and as much as 60 time greater risk for inutero exposure.
Shoshone were asking them, the Department of Energy only considered Western Shoshone society through the narrow
view of cultural resources studies. The process used by the Department of Energy, "cultural triage" that is defined as, "the
forced choice situation in which an ethnic group is faced with the decision to rank in importance equally valued cultural
resources that could be affected by a proposed development project." So, the Department of Energy researchers reframed
the question in a form science could answer, "Is this burial, plant or animal safe from a road, tunnel or building needed for
a repository at Yucca Mountain?" The answer was returned as the answer to the original question being asked by the
Western Shoshone people. The Western Shoshone National Council view the use of "cultural triage" and every proximate
act, in furtherance of, and as a means to dismantle a living culture for the benefit and profit of the nuclear industry, a
violation of International Humanitarian Law, and a crime under the UN Convention on Prevention and Punishment of the
Crime of Genocide and the US enactments, the Proxmire Act.
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Potential K Alternative
(If you want to run this is as a Enviro-J K)
Works the other wayeven if the plan fails, it instills a
chance of resurgence for the nuclear industry, which is
just as bad. Yucca is one example of the federal
governments exploitation of native lands across the
country for years. Vote negative to return the land to the
Western Shoshone and reinstate sovereignty.
Corbin Harney, Western Shoshone spiritual leader, October 2000, Yucca
Mountain: No Place for Nuclear Waste Nuclear Information and Resource
Service, http://www.nirs.org/radwaste/yucca/yuccaltrbycorbin102400.htm,
KTG
As the federal EIS process grinds on, the industry is doing all they
can to expedite and insure Yucca's opening. Each year for the past six years,
legislation has quietly appeared in Congress in a backroom effort by
the industry to change current law and seal a Yucca deal. This year's
proposed changes to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act pretty much
"threw radiation standards out," according to Michael Marriotte of the Nuclear Information
Resource Service (NIRS) in Washington, D.C., going so far as to strip the EPA of authority for setting
standards. All this, says NIRS, is to "make the Yucca shoe fit" and insure the production of more nuclear
waste. On April 25, 2000, President Clinton did the right thing and vetoed the Nuclear Waste Policy
Amendments Act as he promised. A Senate vote to override the veto on May 2 nd failed by a narrow
margin. So, for one more year, the Western Shoshone, Yucca Mountain, and fifty million Americans are safe
from the nuclear industry. But what about next year? Join the call for "No Nuclear Waste on Native Lands".
Every
single proposal to store high level nuclear waste in North America
targets Native territories. Not only do these proposals represent
immense environmental injustices toward Native peoples, but the
dumps, if authorized, will enable a dying nuclear industry to get
some last breaths. Nuclear waste is the Achilles heel of the industry.
Contact the organizations below to take action. Nuclear Politics and Environmental Injustice
Reactors are filling up with spent radioactive fuel and there is no safe place to put this deadly waste.
The industry
sees this as a political problem, not an environmental one. Targeting
isolated and economically disenfranchised Indians is their one
solution. Help us close this loophole. Join the movement to stop
nuclear waste on Native lands and create the impetus for our society
to move towards wind, solar and other renewable resources.
Utilities will have to close down their plants if they cannot get a waste site authorized.
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Solvency
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Keerthi Gondi
1NC
Yucca repository will fail
a) Yucca is not scientifically sound and safe.
Lisa Ledwidge, updated 2013, If not Yucca Mountain, then what? An
Alternative Plan for Managing Highly Radioactive Waste in the United States,
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research; Ledwidge is Outreach
Director at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, earned a BS
in Biology from Eastern Michigan University and two Masters degrees
(Environmental Science and Public Affairs) from Indiana University;
http://ieer.org/resource/commentary/yucca-mountain/, KTG
Argument: Yucca Mountain is a scientifically sound site in which to dispose of
spent nuclear fuel. Thats why it was chosen.
Counter: Yucca Mountain is not a scientifically sound solution for the
disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The decision to site Yucca Mountain as a waste repository
was based on politics, not science. It is common sense, and sound science, to site and
build a nuclear waste repository to isolate radioactive waste as
completely as possible from the human environment for the hazardous
lifetime of the waste. But even some of the U.S. governments own assessments
indicate that Yucca Mountain is not capable of isolating radioactive
waste from the environment for this long. [1] The geology of Yucca Mountain,
volcanic tuff, is not expected to provide an adequate barrier in the
long term. Also, serious questions have been raised about the integrity of
the canisters that would hold the spent fuel. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
assessments assume that the engineered barriers, notably the metal canisters, will provide adequate
risen to the repository level is still a matter of scientific controversy. Water is also a principal means by
which the containment of the wastes may become compromised. Yet the DOEs plans assume the
underground area will remain relatively dry for hundreds of centuries.
Alternative Plan for Managing Highly Radioactive Waste in the United States,
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research; Ledwidge is Outreach
Director at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, earned a BS
in Biology from Eastern Michigan University and two Masters degrees
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formal risk assessment, DOE cannot be assured that it is aware of any risks it is still facing from the
shutdown, such as from missed opportunities to preserve institutional knowledge that may be needed in
future efforts. Furthermore, as more time passes without a plan for resuming the licensing process at Yucca
were breached. Nor did DOE demonstrate that it fully documented the return of any proceeds from sales of
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nuclear waste reprocessing plant, a research reactor site, a nuclear power plant or an air-cooled
underground nuclear reactor. Other suggestions include making Yucca: -- A commercial energy park for
nuclear, solar and wind power generation. -- A command center for unmanned aerial vehicles. -- A
training site for first responders. -- A secure data storage site. -- A strategic petroleum reserve for the
western part of the country. -- A facility for research on highly infectious diseases. -- A university to teach
the
there broad consensus among the experts on how Yucca could best be used. But
several experts consulted by the GAO noted there is land elsewhere that would also fulfill their needs, and
that they would rather build a project "from scratch" than retrofit an existing tunnel.
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2NC Extensions
Extend 1NC #1Ledwidge states that Yucca repository is
not scientifically possiblethe geology of the mountain is
not a good enough barrier, the spent fuel canisters are
untested and will corrode, and the desert underground
water pools will transport the waste to human settlement
government reports prove this.
Extend 1NC #2Ledwidge states that the Yucca
repository program puts the cart efore the horse,
avoiding long term solutions to the problem of nuclear
waste storage, which would result in hasty decisions with
transportation and result in reprocessing and more
pollution and accidentsturns case. The status quo of onsite storage is comparatively better.
Extend 1NC #3a GAO report indicated that Yucca will
never work out because the Department of Energy made
several vital mistakes when closing Yucca a few years
they didnt create any backup plans, they didnt take an
inventory of materials, and all of the staff left meaning
theres no credibility for the program.
Extend 1NC #4lawsuits and litigation prevent solvency.
First, theres a lawsuit on the closure that literally
prevents ANY federal action from taking place until it is
resolved. Fiat cant resolve this. Secondly, corporations
would use litigation to delay action. Finally, theres zero
interagency cooperation resulting in bad policy.
Extend 1NC #5the government literally shut Yucca down
and sealed the door to prevent leaking gas. All utilities
were shut off as well. This is a major alt cause to any case
access. Transportation systems cant even get into the
mountain let alone use it as a repository.
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2NC Solvency
Heres a framing issuethe Yucca proposal is all politics
and no scienceview their evidence with skepticism.
Lisa Ledwidge, updated 2013, If not Yucca Mountain, then what? An
Alternative Plan for Managing Highly Radioactive Waste in the United States,
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research; Ledwidge is Outreach
Director at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, earned a BS
in Biology from Eastern Michigan University and two Masters degrees
(Environmental Science and Public Affairs) from Indiana University;
http://ieer.org/resource/commentary/yucca-mountain/, KTG
History illustrates that Yucca was chosen based on politics, not science. In
1982, Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, a law which designated
deep geologic disposal as the preferred technical solution for nuclear waste disposal, essentially
curtailing or terminating serious research and development on other
methods like deep borehole or sub-seabed disposal. The law
stipulated that explicit site selection and environmental criteria be
adopted, and that a final site be selected from among numerous sites examined on the basis of
detailed characterization studies. However, the Dept. of Energys problem-ridden
site selection process, flaws in law and in federal regulations, and
vigorous citizen opposition led to a more politically convenient
solution. Congress amended the Nuclear Waste Policy Act in 1987,
overriding many of the original site selection and characterization
provisions. Congress voted to eliminate other contenders and concentrate on
Yucca Mountain as the sole site to be examined as a candidate for the first high-level waste repository,
even before scientific studies were completed. Thus the final selection of Yucca
Mountain came about as a result of a process in which politics overwhelmed science. [3]
Plan fails
a) No DOE licensingmakes the research and program
impossible.
GAO, April 2011, COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR WASTE: Effects of a Termination
repository. Additionally, the board stated that, even if approved, such approval did not ensure that a
repository would be built or become operational for any number of reasons, including separate
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As
of February 2011, the status of the Yucca Mountain license application
and associated review process is uncertain. On June 30, 2010, the day after the
congressional action changing the law or a decision by Congress not to fund the proposed repository.
Atomic Safety and Licensing Board denied DOEs motion to withdraw its license application with prejudice,
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The
DOE estimates that it will cost $1 billion to build a rail line from
Caliente, Nevada, located on the east edge of the state, to Yucca Mountain for the
transport of waste within Nevada. Waste would be shipped by rail to
Caliente from across the country. Due to high traffic along northern
lines and bad weather in the winter in the Rocky Mountains and
Great Plains, rail carriers, who determine the transport routes, may
find routing the waste along southern rail lines more attractive. T hus
more waste would travel across Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California, and more than 80
percent of shipments would go through Las Vegas on its way to Caliente.
Further, the DOE is considering using truck casks to transport waste
on railcars, because the Caliente tracks will not be completed by the
time the DOE wants to start shipping waste in 2010. It is telling that the
DOE originally dismissed this option in its Final Environmental
Impact Statement as too costly and too risky for workers and the
public.
Should Not Be Built Public Citizen- protecting health, safety, and democracyhttp://www.citizen.org/cmep/article_redirect.cfm?ID=12788, KTG
While the nuclear industry often points to international transport as
a model the United States can copy, nuclear waste transportation
internationally has a tarnished history. For instance, it was revealed
in 1997 that 26 percent of the French transport casks were
contaminated 50 times above the regulatory dose limits on their
exterior surface. Such contamination incidents also took place with United Kingdom, German and
Swiss shipments. As a result, shipments between France and Germany were halted for three years, from
and high-energy explosive devices, which can breach the wall of the cask. But, as the backpack
bombings in Madrid last March show, it does not take a sophisticated missile to successfully attack a train
or train tracks. Ultimately, the robustness of the shipping casks will determine whether radioactivity is
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one
nuclear expert identified use of the site for interim storage as very
poor, noting that it is impractical to transport high-level nuclear
waste more than once.15 Similarly, two stakeholders proposed producing medical isotopes on the site,
similar to the original proposed use and could therefore build on past efforts and studies. On the other hand,
and nuclear experts differed on the benefits and challenges of this use. As some experts acknowledged a need to increase
proposed to produce medical isotopesthe use of electron accelerators or neutron generators. Stakeholders also
proposed two additional alternative uses related to nuclear researcha nuclear technologies research facility and a
research reactorthat also received mixed responses from experts we consulted. Some experts noted that such research
is already conducted at other locations, such as DOEs Idaho National Laboratory, and that another research location is
not necessary; further, some experts said that they did not believe that there would be an adequate workforce in Nevada
rejects this plan. In the absence of a permanent and viable solution, we and more than 200 other
organizations advocate safeguarding the waste where it is generated. Tell your representative in Congress
enough to move is stored in outdoor casks. Both types of storage are vulnerable to accidents, attack and
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natural disasters, as shown so clearly by the Fukushima nuclear disaster. To better safeguard this waste,
we advocate hardened on-site storage a plan that calls for emptying the waste storage pools and
placing the irradiated rods in high-quality outdoor casks fortified by thick bunkers and berms. Ideally, we
should stop generating nuclear waste, but while it continues to accumulate, we must implement smart
safeguards to protect people and the environment from the immediate risks associated with high-level
radioactive waste.
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Terrorism/Waste
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1NC
Infrastructure uniquely increases the risk of waste
terrorismleaves more fuel vulnerable and Yucca is not
safe enough.
Lisa Ledwidge, updated 2013, If not Yucca Mountain, then what? An
Alternative Plan for Managing Highly Radioactive Waste in the United States,
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research; Ledwidge is Outreach
Director at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, earned a BS
in Biology from Eastern Michigan University and two Masters degrees
(Environmental Science and Public Affairs) from Indiana University;
http://ieer.org/resource/commentary/yucca-mountain/, KTG
Counter: Moving waste to Yucca Mountain will not eliminate risks
associated with nuclear power plants, it would only create another
waste dump. In the event of a transportation accident, moving waste
to Yucca could create more than one more nuclear site. Furthermore,
shipping waste to Yucca Mountain will not decrease the terrorist
threat associated with spent fuel; it may even increase the risk by
putting nuclear waste on the countrys rails and roads. Storage of spent
fuel on-site for several decades is feasible and can generally be done relatively safely, if industry and
Commission state that dry spent fuel storage is safe and environmentally acceptable for a period of 100
storage
near the site may be safer than on site. However, moving the waste
would give rise to its own issues and is generally difficult to
accomplish.
years. [4] In some instances, such as in severe earthquake zones or on riverine islands,
Nevada
ranks third in the nation for current seismic activity. A 1992 earthquake 12
miles from the site registered 5.6 on the Richter scale. Earthquakes could cause the
casks in the surface facility, which is slated to hold as much as
40,000 metric tons of spent fuel in vertical dry casks, to break open
and release radiation.
Swimming West by the Western Shoshone Indian nation due to its constant movement.
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while still requiring rare technical expertise, may use a less complex gun mechanism January 2012 57 The Science of Security (which fires a piece of HEU into a
larger chunk of the same material) to create a vio- lent nuclear chain reaction.170 But there are multiple hurdles to clear before even begin- ning the complex process of
method of procurement exceedingly difficult even for well-financed sovereign states. Any illegal sale of fissionable material would launch an exhaustive manhunt focusing
on the relatively few people able to access the material. Such attempted illegal sales of nuclear material were discovered eighteen times between 1993 and 2007 as states
of the former Soviet Union reacted slowly to the need to secure fissionable mate- rial. The interdicted sales (if successful) would have only resulted in the transfer of less
than 17.5 pounds of HEU and less than 1 pound of plutonium. Even the most generous estimates of terrorists technical ability and luck would require them to gather
around 50 pounds of HEU to construct a sophisticated and efficient gun-bomb,172 twice as much if their design were simpler.173 As Vahid Majidi, head of VII. A LIMITED
REPERTOIRE the FBIs WMD directorate has recently concluded, the prospect of nuclear terrorism is very exciting, always good to see in a movie setting...but
we
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2NC
Rail transport increases the risk of terrorism
Michelle Boyd, January 2005, Proposed Yucca Mountain Nuclear Dump
Should Not Be Built Public Citizen- protecting health, safety, and democracyhttp://www.citizen.org/cmep/article_redirect.cfm?ID=12788, KTG
In addition to accident risks, transporting high-level nuclear waste
across the country through highly populated areas poses a security
risk. DOE and NRC testing has found that truck casks are vulnerable
to sophisticated antitank weapons and high-energy explosive
devices, which can breach the wall of the cask. But, as the
backpack bombings in Madrid last March show, it does not take a
sophisticated missile to successfully attack a train or train tracks.
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Nuclear Leadership/Power
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1NC
Nuclear leadership high nowwe have the gold standard
for nonprolif.
Elaine M. Grossman, May 16 2013, Former U.S. National Security
The
letter cautions against the adoption of policies that could
inadvertently weaken the ability of the United States to continue to
provide international leadership on this critically important issue,
though it stops short of naming specific policies the authors find
objectionable. A CSIS spokesman, H. Andrew Schwartz, on Wednesday said Hamre was on travel
William Cohen, and retired Adm. Michael Mullen, previously chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
and could not respond to questions about the letter. Issue experts, though, said the eight writers appear
to be concerned about an ongoing Obama administration internal policy review regarding its approach to
U.S. nuclear materials or technologies only in exchange for a promise not to produce atomic fuel on its own
soil. Enriching uranium or reprocessing plutonium can be used in civil nuclear power generation, but these
activities also could open the door to a clandestine atomic weapons effort, as is widely suspected in Iran
and elsewhere.
enrichment Jones is a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center and cochairman of its Energy Project. He was national security adviser to President
Obama from January 2009 to November 2010, http://thehill.com/opinion/oped/204711-us-must-remain-leader-in-nuclear-enrichment-, KTG
Achieving energy security is among our nations most pressing
requirements in this still-young century. I believe that America must employ a more
strategic national energy policy if it is to overcome the many complex energy challenges that will so
heavily influence its economic and national security. While our continued dependence on foreign sources of
oil might remain the most visible threat to American energy security, consequential energy-related threats
such as climate change and the proliferation of nuclear material will continue to bear heavily on our
unique among energy sources because the commercial use of civilian technology is inseparable from
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dangerous world must continue to be managed responsibly a primary objective of the nonproliferation
Our commercial
leadership in the nuclear industry has been an enduring source of
Americas influence in the global marketplace and a potent lever for
promoting international cooperation in developing and enforcing
nonproliferation regimes. Unfortunately, the U.S. is ceding its
leadership in key areas of nuclear technology development. Of
greatest concern is potential loss of leadership in the enrichment
industry. The U.S. once produced a majority of the worlds supply of
enriched uranium necessary to generate nuclear power, but today it
produces only 25 percent. The United States Enrichment Corporation (USEC), which operates
laws and safeguards that accompany the export of U.S. nuclear technology.
the United Statess largest commercial uranium enrichment facility, is the only U.S. majority-owned
supplier. However, its plant located in Paducah, Ky., uses antiquated and inefficient technology. The
enterprise is not well-positioned to compete cost-effectively and its ability to sustain operations remains in
The loss of our only domestically-owned source of
enriched uranium will severely undermine Americas influence in the
industry and our leadership in vital international nonproliferation
efforts. Without the United States as a reliable source of nuclear fuel, particularly in a world with
serious doubt.
increasing demand for low- and no-carbon electric generation, other nations will have greater incentive to
pursue their own enrichment capabilities, increasing the risks of proliferation and the chances that civilian
federal government continue to invest in the research and development of technologies necessary to
sustain modern and commercially viable domestic enrichment capability. Toward this end, the Department
of Energy has requested congressional authorization to repurpose $300 million dollars to support
continued R&D over the next two years. Unfortunately, the initial $150 million needed to demonstrate new
technologies was not included in the recent spending bill. There is controversy over the appropriate role
of the federal government in supporting technology commercialization. We must not let this debate
negatively affect U.S. national security or our continued commitment to energy R&D vital to Americas
energy, economic and national security a role that has always, appropriately, received overwhelming
bipartisan support.
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The two sets of talks represent distinct diplomatic tracks but are linked because both center on suspicions
that Iran may be seeking the capability to assemble nuclear bombs behind the facade of a declared civilian
atomic energy program.
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CP
TEXT: The United States federal government should
systematize professional training opportunities for its
humanitarian workforce.
Counterplan is a PREREQUISITE to the affirmative. The
counterplan standardizes and improves the entire
methodology of US humanitarian aid. The counterplan
solves the entirety of the affs humanitarian aid
advantage
Harvard University, 2013 (Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict
State Budgets DA
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1NC
States are fiscally making a comeback but are on the
brink of further decline.
Leigh Ann Renzulli, June 14 2012, State Budgets Have a Good Year, The
Governing Magazine- State Government News on politicals, management,
policy, and politics; http://www.governing.com/news/state/gov-good-year-forstate-budgets.html, KTG
The state budgets of Arizona, Michigan and Rhode Island suffered the biggest blows as a result of the
recession. But this year, all three states may have budget surpluses, according to Stateline. In fact,
budgets in most states have started to show a significant recovery, which is changing lawmakers' minds
especially Illinois and California, are faced with budget crises this year similar in scope to ones faced by
the upcoming reduction in federal infrastructure investment as Recovery Act funds are depleted, and the
strong benefits associated with public investment.
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from Duke University's Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Director of the
State Fiscal Project, which works to develop strategies for long-term structural
reform of state budget and tax systems, encourage low-income tax relief, and
improve the way states prioritize funding, received the Ian Axford Fellowship
in Public Policy, a program financed by the New Zealand government and
administered by Fulbright New Zealand. Through this fellowship, he spent six
months as an advisor to the New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand
Ministry of Social Development; AND*** Erica Williams - M.A. in International
Policy the Monterey Institute of International Studies; Policy Analyst with the
State Fiscal Project; (Michael, Nicholas Johnson, Erica Williams, State Budget
Cuts in the New Fiscal Year Are Unnecessarily Harmful, July 28,
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3550)
Since states spend more of their budgets on education and health care than
anything else, lawmakers imposing large spending are hard-pressed to
avoid cutting back on these essential public services . Many states also will lay off
state employees or cut their pay and benefits. These actions, coming on top of deep cuts that states have
already made over the last three years, place a drag on the nations economic recovery. Elementary
and Secondary Education At least 23 states have made identifiable cuts in
support for public schools. In many cases, these cuts undermine school finance systems that are
intended to reduce disparities between high-wealth and low-wealth school districts, so the largest impacts may be felt in
communities that are least able to compensate for the loss of funds from their own resources. Arizona is cutting $183
million from K-12 education spending in the coming year and continues another $377 million in cuts that were
implemented over the previous three years, bringing the total cut relative to pre-recession levels to $560 million, or $530
per pupil. Colorado is cutting state spending on K-12 education by $347 per pupil compared to last school year. Florida is
cutting spending on K-12 education by $542 per pupil compared with last year. The state also has cut $13 million from the
states school readiness program that gives low-income families access to high quality early care for their children. The
cut means over 15,000 children currently participating in the program will no longer be served. Florida also reduced by 7
percent the per-student allocation to providers participating in the states universal prekindergarten program for 4-yearolds, which will mean that classrooms have more children per teacher. Georgia cut state and lottery funds for prekindergarten by 15 percent, which will mean shortening the pre-K school year from 180 to 160 days for 86,000 four-yearolds, increasing class sizes from 20 to 22 students per teacher, and reducing teacher salaries by 10 percent. Iowa reduced
state funding for its statewide pre-kindergarten program for four-year-olds by 9 percent from last year. Schools serving
these children will now receive fewer dollars per child and may have to make up for lost funds with reduced enrollment or
higher property taxes. The state is also cutting back support for a community-based early childhood program that
provides resources to parents with children from birth to age 5, including a cut of nearly 30 percent to preschool tuition
assistance. Illinois is cutting general state aid for public schools by $152 million, on top of a loss of $415 million in expired
federal recovery dollars a total decrease of 11 percent. The budget takes $17 million from the state fund that supports
early childhood education efforts, which may result in an estimated 4,000 fewer children receiving preschool services and
1,000 fewer at-risk infants and toddlers receiving developmental services. The budget also eliminates state funding for
advanced placement courses in school districts with large concentrations of low-income students, mentoring programs for
teachers and principals, and an initiative providing targeted, research-based instruction to students with learning
difficulties. Kansas cut the basic funding formula for K-12 schools by $232 per-pupil, bringing this funding nearly 6 percent
below fiscal year 2011 budgeted levels. For the third year in a row, Louisiana will fail to fund K-12 education at the
minimum amount required to ensure adequate funding for at-risk and special needs students, as determined by the
states education finance formula. Per student spending will be $215 below the level set out by the finance formula for
FY12. Michigan is cutting K-12 education spending by $470 per student. Mississippi, for the fourth year in a row, will fail to
meet the states statutory obligation to support K-12 schools, underfunding school districts by 10.5 percent or $236
million. The statutory school funding formula is designed to ensure adequate funding for lower-income and
underperforming schools. According to the Mississippi Department of Education, the states failure to meet that
requirement over the past three years has resulted in 2,060 school employee layoffs (704 teachers, 792 teacher
assistants, 163 administrators, counselors, and librarians, and 401 bus drivers, custodians, and clerical personnel).[11]
Missouri is freezing funding for K-12 education at last years levels. This means that for the second year in a row, the state
has failed to meet the statutory funding formula established to ensure equitable distribution of state dollars to school
districts. Nebraska altered its K-12 school aid funding formula to freeze state aid to schools in the coming year and allow
very small increases thereafter, resulting in a cut of $410 million over two years. New Mexico cut K-12 spending by $42
million (1.7 percent). The governor is requiring school districts to spare classroom spending from the cuts, which means
greater proportional cuts to other areas of K-12 education like school libraries and guidance counseling. The operating
budget of the state education department is being cut by more than 25 percent. New York cut education aid by $1.3
billion, or 6.1 percent. This cut will delay implementation of a court order to provide additional education funding to underresourced school districts for the third year in a row. Beyond cutting the level of education aid in FY12, the budget limits
the rate at which education spending can grow in future years to the rate of growth in state personal income. North
Carolina cut nearly half of a billion dollars from K-12 education in each year of the biennium compared to the amount
necessary to provide the same level of K-12 education services in 2012 as in 2011. Both the state-funded prekindergarten
program for at risk 4-year-olds and the states early childhood development network that works to improve the quality of
early learning and child outcomes were cut by 20 percent. The budget also reduces by 80 percent funds for textbooks;
reduces by 5 percent funds for support positions, like guidance counselors and social workers; reduces by 15 percent
funds for non-instructional staff; and cuts by 16 percent salaries and benefits for superintendents, associate and assistant
superintendents, finance officers, athletic trainers, and transportation directors, among others. Ohio is cutting state K-12
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education funding 7.5 percent this year, a cut of $400 per student and equivalent to nearly 14,000 teachers salaries.
Oklahoma is cutting funding for school districts by 4.5 percent, and makes additional cuts to the Department of
Educations budget. The Department of Education has voted to eliminate adult education programs, math labs in middle
school, and stipends for certified teachers, among other things. Pennsylvania cut K-12 education aid by $422 million, or
7.3 percent, bringing funding down nearly to FY2009 levels. The budget also cuts $429 million dollars in additional funding
that the state provides to school districts to implement effective educational practices (such as high quality prekindergarten programs) and maintain tutoring programs, among other purposes. Overall state funding for school districts
was cut by $851 million or 13.5 percent, a cut of $485 per student. South Dakota cut K-12 education by 6.4 percent, next
year, an amount equal to $416 per student, and 8.8 percent in 2013. Texas eliminated state funding for pre-K programs
that serve around 100,000 mostly at-risk children, or more than 40 percent of the states pre-kindergarten students. The
budget also reduces state K-12 funding to 9.4 percent below the minimum amount required by the state law. Texas
already has below-average K-12 education funding compared to other states, and this cut would depress that low level
even further at a time when the states school enrollment is growing. This would likely force school districts to lay off large
numbers of teachers, increase class sizes, eliminate sports programs and other extracurricular activities, and take other
measures that undermine the quality of education. Utah cut K-12 education by 5 percent, or $303, per pupil from the prior
years levels. Washington is taking over $1 billion from state K-12 education funds designed to reduce class size, extend
learning time, and provide professional development for teachers a cut equal to $1,100 per student. Wisconsin reduced
state aid designed to equalize funding across school districts by $740 million over the coming two-year budget cycle, a
cut of 8 percent. The budget also reduces K-12 funds for services for at-risk children, school nursing,
and alternative education. Higher Education At least 25 states have made large, identifiable cuts in funding for state
colleges and universities, with direct impacts on students. Arizona cut funding for public universities by nearly onequarter, or $200 million. This would add to deep previous cuts: from 2008 through 2011, state support for universities fell
by $230 million, resulting in the elimination of more than 2,100 positions (an 11 percent reduction in the workforce).
Comparative
advantage shifts from place to place over time and always has; the
earth cannot really be flattened. The US response to competition
must include proper retraining of those who are disadvantaged and adaptive institutional
to attract talent from around the world, and a culture of inventiveness.
and policy responses that make the best use of opportunities that arise. India and China will become
consumers of those countries products as well as ours. That same rising middle class will have a stake in
the frictionless flow of international commerceand hence in stability, peace, and the rule of law.
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that is heated slowly until it boils wont respond until it is too late. Our
crisis is not the result of a one-dimensional change; it is more than a simple increase in water temperature.
the United States and their children are entitled to a better quality of life than others, and that all
Americans need do is circle the wagons to defend that entitlement. Such a presupposition does not reflect
reality and neither recognizes the dangers nor seizes the opportunities of current circumstances.
Furthermore, it wont work. In 2001, the HartRudman Commission on national security, which foresaw
large-scale terrorism in America and proposed the establishment of a cabinet-level Homeland Security
The inadequacies of
our system of research and education pose a greater threat to U.S.
national security over the next quarter century than any potential
conventional war that we might imagine. President George W. Bush has said Science
and technology have never been more essential to the defense of
the nation and the health of our economy.5 US Commission on National Security.
organization before the terrorist attacks of 9/11, put the matter this way:4
Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change. Washington, DC: US Commission on National
Security, 2001. A letter from the leadership of the National Science Foundation to the Presidents Council of
Civilization is on the
brink of a new industrial order. The big winners in the increasingly
fierce global scramble for supremacy will not be those who simply make commodities
faster and cheaper than the competition. They will be those who develop talent,
techniques and tools so advanced that there is no competition .
Advisors on Science and Technology put the case even more bluntly:6
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**Disasters Mod
Budget crisis leads to cuts in disaster response.
Matt A. Mayer et al.; James Jay Carafano, and Jessica Zuckerman, August
23, 2011, Homeland Security 4.0: Overcoming Centralization,
(insert Impact)
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example, many poor peoples livelihoods depend on agriculture. But a drought or flood can destroy a years income in the
blink of an eye. In many regions, risk is growing. Population increase, climate change, increasing urbanization and
environmental degradation are some of the drivers of future disaster risk for poor people worldwide. In recent decades,
disasters. As more than half the worlds population lives in cities, poorly planned and managed urban development is a
key driver of disaster risk. Poor housing, lack of health facilities and infrastructure put nearly one billion urban dwellers
living in informal settlements at risk of disasters. The lives and livelihoods of people living in flood plains, low lying coastal
areas and steep slopes are particularly in danger. Deforestation, overgrazing and land degradation have damaged
ecosystems and are exacerbating the risks of disasters such as floods or landslides. Very often, it is women who are most
affected by disasters. More women than men are injured or killed during hurricanes and floods. They have in general less
access to political and economic resources needed to protect themselves from disasters, and to deal with disaster effects.
Women are less likely to know how to swim; they are often restricted from running fast by their clothing; their role as
caretakers of children and older people as well as cultural rules restrict them from leaving their homes without the
accompaniment of a male relative. We
Glasser says. One dollar invested in disaster risk reduction saves up to seven dollars in emergency response and
rehabilitation. This includes assisting people to diversify and adapt their livelihoods, helping build capacities of urban
governance to ensure urban dwellers can live on safe lands and have access to infrastructure and services, and protecting
ecosystems through community-based natural resource management.
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demonstrably large proportion of them) are a function of the class structure; and that structure is itself a product of
society's collective human choices, concerning how to distribute the collective wealth of the society. These are not acts of
God. I am contrasting `structural' with `behavioral violence' by which I mean the non-natural deaths and injuries that are
caused by specific behavioral actions of individuals against individuals, such as the deaths we attribute to homicide,
suicide, soldiers in warfare, capital punishment, and so on." -- (Gilligan, J., MD, Violence: Reflections On a National
War on the Poor.It is found in every country, submerged beneath the sands of history, buried, yet ever present, as
omnipotent as death. In the struggles over the commons in Europe, when the peasants struggled and lost their battles for
their commonal lands (a precursor to similar struggles throughout Africa and the Americas), this violence was sanctified,
by church and crown, as the 'Divine Right of Kings' to the spoils of class battle. Scholars Frances Fox-Piven and Richard A
Cloward wrote, in The New Class War (Pantheon, 1982/1985): They did not lose because landowners were immune to
burning and preaching and rioting. They lost because the usurpations of owners were regularly defended by the legal
authority and the armed force of the state. It was the state that imposed increased taxes or enforced the payment of
increased rents, and evicted or jailed those who could not pay the resulting debts. It was the state that made lawful the
appropriation by landowners of the forests, streams, and commons, and imposed terrifying penalties on those who
persisted in claiming the old rights to these resources. It was the state that freed serfs or emancipated sharecroppers only
to leave them landless. (52) The "Law", then, was a tool of the powerful to protect their interests, then, as now. It was a
weapon against the poor and impoverished, then, as now. It punished retail violence, while turning a blind eye to the
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Roads/Highways
The recent DOT budget has funded road development
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget will provide $305 billion over six years in funding for
road and bridge improve- ments and constructiona 34 percent increase
over the previous authorization. It will also simplify the highway program structure, accelerate project delivery, and realize the benefits of highway and bridge investments to the public sooner.
These investments and reforms will modernize our highway system while creat- ing much-needed jobs.
the National interest: the National Highway Program; Highway Safety; Livable Communities; Federal
Allocation; and, Research, Technology, and Education. It also establishes a performance-based highway
program in the critical areas of safety and state of good repair, and provides resources and authorities to
spur innovations that will shorten project delivery and accelerate the deployment of new technologies.
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Bridges
The recent DOT budget has funded road development
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget will provide $305 billion over six years in funding for road
and bridge improve- ments and constructiona 34 percent increase
over the previous authorization. It will also simplify the highway program structure, accelerate project delivery, and realize the benefits of highway and bridge investments to the public sooner.
These investments and reforms will modernize our highway system while creat- ing much-needed jobs.
FISCAL YEAR 2013 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS 9 The proposal consolidates more than 55 pro- grams into five
new programs that invest in roads most critical to the National interest: the National Highway Program;
Highway Safety; Livable Communities; Federal Allocation; and, Research, Technology, and Education. It
also establishes a performance-based highway program in the critical areas of safety and state of good
repair, and provides resources and authorities to spur innovations that will shorten project delivery and
accelerate the deployment of new technologies.
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Transit
The recent DOT budget has funded accessible transit
programs
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
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164
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Rural Infrastructure
The recent DOT budget has funded rural developments.
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdf , KTG
The Budget makes the investments that we need to strengthen
Americas small towns and rural communities. Increased highway
funding will expand access to jobs, education, and health care.
Innovative policy solutions will ensure that people can more easily
connect with regional and local transit optionsand from one mode
of transportation to another.
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NextGen/AIP
The recent DOT budget has funded rural developments.
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdf , KTG
Immediate Transportation Investment: To spur job growth and allow states to initiate sound multiyear
investments, the Budget assumes in FY 2012 a $50 billion economic boost above current law spending to
Of
this amount, $3 billion is for FAA programs ($1 billion for NextGen and $2 billion for
Grants-in-Aid to Airports). The $1 billion in funding to advance NextGen will
support multiple infrastruc- ture projects and other investments that
are designed to accelerate NextGen capabilities. The request
includes $225 million for a new air traffic control facility for the
future which will fully leverage NextGen capa- bilities to improve
traffic flow, ensure user community cost savings, reduce the
environmental impact of aviation, and reduce operating costs.
jump start investments for highway, highway safety, transit, passenger rail, and aviation activities.
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NIB
NIB was funded in 2013 budget.
Jeff Zients, Acting Director of the Presidential Office of Management and
Budget, February 13, 2012, The 2013 Budget,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/02/13/2013-budget, KTG
To create thousands of jobs and modernize a critical foundation of
our economic growth, the Budget also invests in a 21st century
infrastructure. These investments include a six-year, $476 billion surface
transportation reauthorization bill thats expanded to included inter-city
passenger rail, and that is fully paid for through current user-financed
mechanisms and savings from ending the war in Iraq and winding down
operations in Afghanistan. They also include the creation of a National
Infrastructure Bank to fund projects of national importance, and the
building of a next-generation, wireless broadband network.
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Truck/Bus Safety
The recent DOT budget has funded truck and bus safety
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdf , KTG
The Budget will dedicate $4.8 billion to the Federal Motor Carrier
Safety Administration (FMCSA) to ensure that commercial truck and
bus compa- nies maintain high operational standards, while
removing high-risk truck and bus companies and their drivers from
operating.
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TIFIA
The recent DOT budget has invested into TIFIA.
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdF ,KTG
Federal infrastructure loans enable state and local governments to significantly leverage federal dollars
A2 Terrorism
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Terrorism FL
1. Not an existential threat because no motivationand
even if there is motivation nothing can solve it because it
is ideological.
John Mueller, May 2012, Department of Political Science at Ohio State
University with a focus on terrorism and national security and is a Senior
Fellow at the Cato Institute, Terrorism in not an Apocalyptic Threat, On
Breakthrough Institute,
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/debates/planes-trains-and-carbombs-a-breakthrough-debate/terrorism-is-not-an-apocalyptic-threat/, KTG
However, I would have appreciated some effort to assess the threat in quantitative terms. Breakthrough
a concentrated war upon it in the Middle East by the United States government and military.
sober and
thoughtful dismemberment of the exceedingly popular notion that
terrorists are likely to become capable of producing nuclear and
other scary "weapons of mass destruction" is most welcome. And so
is the observation that what remains of the Islamist extremist
movement is very much in decline.
particular I salute Breakthrough's efforts to supply an updated threat assessment. The
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exception of Iraqi insurgent and sectarian attacks (which most experts would not classify as terrorism, but
insurgency) on oil infrastruc- ture, roads and bridges, and some water infrastructure, hirabi attacks have
targeted military, government, and transportation tar- gets and some brand name hotels frequented by
why hirabi terrorists have pursued particular attack strategies and what sorts of attacks they are likely to
pursue in the future, we must first understand what they are trying to do. What are their overall goals?
What strategies are they employing to achieve them? And how do some targets and some styles of attack
advance those strategies better than others? Answers to these questions begin to explain why hirabi
terrorists have not been more lethal in the past, and even suggest that their present and future efforts
may be signifi- cantly hampered by political changes beyond their control.
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hirabis have been especially poor at executing their latest attempted attacks
have provoked precisely the kinds of polarizing reactions they hoped for. When Farouk
Abdulmutallab tried and failed to down a jetliner on Christmas Day, the US government
responded by sin- gling out people from Muslim-majority coun- tries
for increased scanning at airports around the world. After Faisal Shahzad lit up
TERRORISM Though
his dud of a truck bomb in Times Square, policymak- ers and talking heads raised a fuss about an interfaith
(but primarily Muslim) cultural center to be erected blocks away from the site of the former World Trade
some
American lawmakers called for legislation preventing Sharia law
from supplanting the American Constitution . Throughout all these events, a
fringe group of pundits claimed the current presidential
administration was coddling or participating in an Islamic conspiracy
to take over the United States.64 While many Americans saw this
Islamophobia as unseemly or ridiculous, many others easily
participated in the polarization hirabis sought to inspire . Polls measuring
Center towers. As al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula sent printer cartridge bombs to Detroit,
Americans support for the construction of a multi-faith cultural center blocks from Ground Zero quickly
shifted in the fall of 2010 as a few bloggers characterized the center as a Victory Mosque intended to
taunt the United States. Attempts by the centers imam to explain his record of, and commitment to,
building inter- faith coalitions did not neutralize opponents beliefs.
Muslims cannot
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Full Extensions
Extend first piece of Mueller 12 evtheres no more
motivation to terrorism because the US is withdrawing
from wars in the Middle East, and its not an existential
threat. Even if there is motivation, it is ideological and
unstoppable. Aka you cant destroy Christianity by
bombing a church, and you cant destroy terrorism by
stopping a few terrorists.
Extend second Mueller 12 cardTerrorism in on the
decline and theres no wat to acquire WMD and nuclear
weapons.
Extend third Mueller 12 cardif a terrorist attack starts,
no security systems can stop itthere are infinite
numbers of targets for us to calculate.
Extend Adams, Nordhaus and Shellenburgno nuclear or
biological terrornever happened and never will
Extend second Adams et al cardan alt cause to terror
damage is psychological damage to minds (like PTSD) or
because of racism due to terrorist attacks.
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No Nuclear Terror
No nuclear terrorno ingredients, no state supporters,
IAEA and US deterrence, Mutually Assured Destruction,
Radioactivity, and plutonium shorages, and nuclear plant
security all determost recent ev and supported by
credible authors.
Nick Adams, Ted Nordhaus, and Michael Shellenberger, January
2012, Planes, Trains, and Car Bombds: The Method Behind the Madness of
while still requiring rare technical expertise, may use a less complex gun mechanism January 2012 57 The Science of Security (which fires a piece of HEU into a
larger chunk of the same material) to create a vio- lent nuclear chain reaction.170 But there are multiple hurdles to clear before even begin- ning the complex process of
method of procurement exceedingly difficult even for well-financed sovereign states. Any illegal sale of fissionable material would launch an exhaustive manhunt focusing
on the relatively few people able to access the material. Such attempted illegal sales of nuclear material were discovered eighteen times between 1993 and 2007 as states
of the former Soviet Union reacted slowly to the need to secure fissionable mate- rial. The interdicted sales (if successful) would have only resulted in the transfer of less
than 17.5 pounds of HEU and less than 1 pound of plutonium. Even the most generous estimates of terrorists technical ability and luck would require them to gather
around 50 pounds of HEU to construct a sophisticated and efficient gun-bomb,172 twice as much if their design were simpler.173 As Vahid Majidi, head of VII. A LIMITED
REPERTOIRE the FBIs WMD directorate has recently concluded, the prospect of nuclear terrorism is very exciting, always good to see in a movie setting...but
we
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Deaths by radiation
depend heavily on the type of mate- rial used. Gamma-emitting materials like
likely to greatly outstrip those of con- ventional bombs in most cases.
caesium-137 (often used for radiation therapy against cancer) are more destructive to human tissues than
alpha or beta-emitting materials like uranium-235 and strontium-90 (which have several other medical
uses). Alpha parti- The Science of Security 58 January 2012 cles can be blocked with a single piece of
pa- per, while gamma particles require a few centimeters of lead to shield against them. easy to execute
The contain- ment dome at Indian Point Nuclear Facility often represented
can
withstand the impact To the extent that radiological weapons are terrorizing, the terror
appears to be based mostly on ignorance of the basic nuclear
physics of radioactive dosing. While people within a hundred meters
of a dirty bomb might die of a high radioactive dose if they did not
perish from the effects of the blast itself most of the people
farther away or shielded by buildings would suffer only low doses of
radiation comparable to those we experience on a particularly sunny
day.175 Fears of radiological weapons, therefore, mostly come down to fear of fear (i.e., concern that a
as some believe.
as a prime target for terrorist attacks because it is only an hours drive from New York City
panic will ensue). The long-term economic impact of such a bomb, also cited as a major concern, depends
on the half-life of the material used. The radioactive effects of a radium dirty bomb, for instance, would
fully dissipate to safe levels (even at the epicenter) within a matter of days. A uranium dirty bomb, on the
other hand would require significant clean-up ef- forts since the half-life of uranium-235 is over 700 million
years. Some authors, especially after the Fukushima disaster, have also raised concerns that terrorists
would attack a nuclear power plant in order to spread radioactive material over a population.176
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No Chem/Biological Terror
Chem Terror impossibleno quanities, no industrial use,
suspicion, small-scale, quick neutralization, and weather
conditions.
Nick Adams, Ted Nordhaus, and Michael Shellenberger, January
2012, Planes, Trains, and Car Bombds: The Method Behind the Madness of
Terrorism, The Science of Security, from the Breakthrough Institute,
http://thescienceofsecurity.org/blog/PlanesTrains%26CarBombs_BTI.pdf, KTG
The use of chemical weapons by non-state groups is rare . Aum Shinrikyo,
the apocalyptic Japanese cult, executed the first non-state chemical attack against the public on the Tokyo
Metro in 1995. Though hundreds were traumatized by their release of sarin gas in the confined space, only
a dozen died. Aum Shinrikyos middling success points to some of the major challenges of creating and
using chemical weapons. First, compiling the ingre- dients for chemical weapons is difficult given
surveillance and enforcement protocols. Dual- use chemicals like chlorine, phosgene, and hydrogen
cyanide are readily available for licensed industrial users. But DHSs CFATS regime ensures that only welltrained, patient, and lucky terrorist operatives would have any chance at orchestrating the loading of the
are not likely to execute such attacks.180 While an AK-47 is able to kill with the pull of a trigger it is also
able to deter counterattacks. A terror- ist employing a container with a spray nozzle, on the other hand,
could quickly and easily be neutralized by anyone armed with a gas mask, a weapon, and/or a good
incompatible with hirabi narratives of jihadist heroism. Aum Shinrikyo was rare in its use of chemi- cals. Its
leader, Shoko Asahara, was said to be obsessed with poisons. But even his group, in- credibly well-funded
(with around $300 million) when it attempted ten separate chemi- cal terror attacks, could not manage to
kill more than a dozen people, much less bring on the dark apocalypse of Asaharas nightmares. Aum
If terrorists
could create or acquire such tox- ins, weaponizing them presents
other major hurdles. Some chemicals, like chlorine, are volatile,
meaning they evaporate at typical pressures and temperatures. They
Shinrikyos failures, despite all their at- tempts and financial and scientific resources,
do not nec- essarily require sophisticated dispersal mechanisms to be effective; they can simply be spilled
and their gases can be carried by the wind. But most, and the most deadly, must be dispersed at a fairly
specific particle size, VII. A LIMITED REPERTOIRE or aerosolized, to reach the most vulnerable parts of
the human respiratory system.178 Aerosolization is a difficult process that requires a technical knowledge
of fluid dy- namics and the coagulative properties of the material being used. Or, if the toxic agent is a
solid in its weaponized form, it must be ground down to the correct particle size and protected from static
charges that can cause it to agglomerate. In any case, the dispersal of chemical weapons is disrupted by
In
the most ideal weather conditions, deadly chemicals could
potentially be aerosolized over crowds from some upwind building or
a crop-dusting plane, but moving large enough reveal how
even mild wind, (too much or too little) humidity, air pol- lution, ultraviolet light, or excessive heat.179
178
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179
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No Resource Terrorism
No Resource Terrorism (For Dams: No threat to water
resourcesno attacks, city security systems, and
rerouting of water)
Nick Adams, Ted Nordhaus, and Michael Shellenberger, January
2012, Planes, Trains, and Car Bombds: The Method Behind the Madness of
180
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No Cyber Terror
No cyber-terroroffline operation, no computer
engineers, no motivation.
Nick Adams, Ted Nordhaus, and Michael Shellenberger, January
2012, Planes, Trains, and Car Bombds: The Method Behind the Madness of
Terrorism, The Science of Security, from the Breakthrough Institute,
http://thescienceofsecurity.org/blog/PlanesTrains%26CarBombs_BTI.pdf, KTG
The latest national security vulnerability to oc- cupy Americas
political class grows out of the countrys economic and logistical
dependence on the Internet and cloud computing. In June 2011, President
Obama released a report outlining his International Strategy Against Cyber Warfare. While his report
focuses particular attention on cyber threats from other nation-states, specifically China, some security
Many
agree that the sorts of denial-of-service attacks against credit card
companies and banks executed by the group Anonymous in support of
embattled WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange have the potential, if wide- spread and
long-running enough, to disrupt the American economy at a time when it is
experts and pundits have also ex- pressed concerns about cyber-terrorism by hirabi militants.
already underperforming. The use of the Stuxnet virus against Irans nuclear facilities also demonstrated
that well-placed hacks can warp and destroy automation processes com- monly used throughout energy
Hirabi leaders want to ingratiate themselves into the pantheon of world historical figures by attacking the
monuments of American power as they did on 9/11, or by marauding its revered and feared soldiers, as
they have done in zones of occupation or directed fol- lowers like Nidal Hassan to do. But tinkering with
computer machines that disrupt internet access or manufacturing processes inspires little sanguinity
among the militants who comprise the vast majority of their movement. The profile of the hirabi
movement is, simply put, not that of the hacker set.
181
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invasion of Afghanistan in 2001- 2002) is an exception. But are hirabi groups even the arch-hirabi group,
al Qaeda interested in deploying such weapons?
182
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183
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A2 Antarctic Science
Antarctic Science cut now
Shen 12 (Helen Shen, senior graduate student in Neuroscience Program at
The impact on
science, said Augustine, would be many times the 8%. Legislators held the
included Subra Suresh, the director of the US National Science Foundation.
hearing to discuss the report More and better science in Antarctica through increased logistical
effectiveness by the US Antarctic Program Blue Ribbon Panel a panel headed by Augustine and
convened by the Office of Science and Technology and the National Science Foundation. The report
suggests that the US Antarctic Program may already need to cut some research efforts in the near future
to support crucial repairs and upgrades to dilapidated infrastructure and transport systems. At present,
science receives 20% of the program budget, and logistics including specialized planes, vessels and
buildings receives 80%. Among other cuts, the report recommends 6% reductions in science
expenditures over the next four years to help fund the improvements. The scientific community worries
about the price of logistics, said Warren Zapol, an anaesthesiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital in
Boston, who has studied how Antarctic seals hold their breath for extended periods. They worry that
logistics will get 100% of it and there wont be any science.
A2 Asia Pivot
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1NC -- Defense
Asian Pivot wont happen-a) No constituency support
Robert E. Kelly, March 29, 2012, Why the U.S. wont pivot to Asia anytime
soon,; Kelly is a Senior Analyst at Wikistrat and a prof. of polisci at Pusan
National University, South Korea, runs the Asian Security Blog,
http://asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com/2012/03/09/the-us-will-not-pivotmuch-to-asia-1-we-dont-really-want-to/?preview=true, KTG
So all this says Asias important, but the trends of US domestic politics run strongly against this. I think the Asian
pivot for the US wont take off, at least not for another decade: 1. Who is the constituency for a
US shift to Asia? Who in America actually cares about this region enough to
drive a major realignment away from long-standing US interests in
Europe and the Middle East? I guess the business community cares; they pushed PMFN for China 15
years ago, but theyre souring on China today because of its relentless mercantilism. Perhaps Asian-Americans would like
to see this, in the same way that Hispanic-Americans impact US south-of-the-border policy. But there arent that many
Asian-Americans (4-5%), and they dont strike me as an organized voice loudly demanding this pivot. Perhaps foreign
policy elites want this, but to my mind the think-tank/op-ed pages set (AEI, WSJ, NYT, Fox, Heritage) still seem more
interested in the Middle East when is the last time you read an op-ed about US basing in Japan or Korea, or US CT
college educated whites, who also broke for Obama, likely support this, the rest of the Democratic coalition traditionally
focuses on domestic issues like education, social mobility, the courts, redistribution and safety nets, etc. Maybe labor
unions care a bit, but their trade concerns are dated and generic, rather than Asia-specific, and they probably want less
value; they know that worshipping Allah is blasphemous. In that fetid Christianist mindset, what are Korea or China but
factory floors far away who make stuff for Walmart? Asia doesnt activate or mobilize these Jacksonian-Christianist
voters. When Santorum said in the New Hampshire debate that Irans nuclear program is the most important issue in US
foreign policy, he was channeling probably one-third of the electorate. Romney and Gingrich too discuss Iran constantly
and pledge no daylight with Israel. By contrast, what does the Tea Party know or care about China or India? At least Islam
looks like a heathen analogue to Christianity (a book, similar godhead, prophets) to the US right, but what to make of
Hinduism, Confucianism, Shintoism, Taoism? Does anyone really believe Joe Tea-partier cares a wit about that stuff? Its all
about culture and religion to the base of the American right these days, and Asia is like outer space to those voters.
Where is the ideology, the excitement, the fervor that created the wild paranoias like WWIV or the long war regarding
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Katzenstein noted this; America has no strong subordinate anchor-state in the region (like Germany in Europe and Japan in
Asia). This is why the GOP particularly emphasizes an enduring, semi-imperial presence in the Gulf. Besides tiny Israel, we
dont have the friends necessary for things like the dual containment (Iran and Iraq) of the 90s, and or the Iraq war of the
and allows trade so we can all buy cheap crap at Walmart. So we dont need to do anything new; lets just keep doing the
same. And lets not get neo-conned into believing that Asia cant manage its own affairs unless bound to lead America
is front-and-center with its hands in everything managing everyones choices. Thats the kind of paranoid pseudoomipotence that got us mired in the Middle East for the last 20 years. We can pivot if we must, but lets not do it because
of our impatient, we-have-to-run-all-big-issues-in-the-world foreign policy establishment. We dont need a pivot, unless
that is being used as rhetorical cover to justify escaping from the ME (which is not a bad idea actually, if theres no other
way).
c) No fiscal sustainability.
Robert E. Kelly, March 29, 2012, Why the U.S. wont pivot to Asia anytime
given the size of China, the expense of a pivot-cumcontainment would be astronomical. I suppose we could try it; wed have allied assistance that
we didnt have in the ME for dual containment. But still, China is so big, it is hard to
imagine a major US build-up that wouldnt cost huge sums that just
arent there anymore. It will become more and more obvious to the median voter in the next 20 years
crisis levels. So,
that domestic entitlements are suffering to fund the continuing post-9/11 US military expansion. I dont think Americans
will choose guns over butter (aircraft carriers instead of checks for grandma) if forced, and Ron Pauls candidacy is proving
pivot, will handicap any effort to borrow yet further to fund an Asia shift.
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2NC- No Focus
The pivot focuses on the wrong countries
Joshua Kurlantzick, November 12 2012, The Moral and Strategic
Blindspot in Obamas Pivot to Asia CFR Fellow for Southeast Asia, scholar at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;
http://www.cfr.org/southeast-asia/moral-strategic-blindspot-obamas-pivotasia/p29527, KTG
The enthusiasm in Washington for the "pivot" has gone much too far,
however. It's true that Southeast Asian nations like Myanmar, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, are
eager for closer cooperation with the United States to counter China's perceived rise. But the Obama
administration has been so eager to reciprocate that its has failed to give those countries' governments,
administration has also engaged with much seamier political actors, including regimes in Cambodia,
Thailand, Myanmar, and Laos, where the military has often dominated politics. In some sense,
providing training to Cambodian forces from U.S. Special Forces. The U.S. has also started exchanging
defense attaches with Laosone of the world's most closed societiesfor the first time in thirty years, and
has started to provide some military education programs for Lao soldiers. And in Thailand, the U.S. is
there is
little reason to believe that these militaries will cease their abuses
of human rights, or that they would support broader U.S. interests
over what's required to keep themselves firmly entrenched in power .
conducting massive joint exercises, and working toward joint command operations. But
For the Cambodian government, which has a history of assassinating domestic opponents, the recent trend
lines are all downward: Over the past five years, according to Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International,
Freedom House, and the State Department's own human rights reports, the human rights situation in
Cambodia has deteriorated, with increasing threats to and murders of activists, journalists, and other
government opponents. This has continued even as the U.S. military has paid for the sons of the country's
ruler, Hun Sen, to attend West Point, according to a report in the Washington Post. In Myanmar, it's true
that the government has, since 2010, undertaken dramatic reforms that have seen Aung San Suu Kyi leave
house arrest and join Parliament, and space open up dramatically for civil society, opposition politics, and
free media. Yet the Myanmar military remains highly repressive and it is hard to tell whether it is even
under the control of the civilian president, Thein Sein. Several human rights groups, including Human
Rights Watch, have noted that Myanmar's security forces have helped to instigate, or turned a blind eye to,
violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Arakan State, resulting in 90,000 people forced from their
homes and at least 200 killed in the past six months. Meanwhile, the military has ramped up a brutal war
against an ethnic militia called the Kachin Independence Army over the past year. The Myanmar military
has been accused by local monitoring groups and international human rights groups of using forced labor,
summary executions, and wanton shelling in its campaign in Kachin State. Thailand and Laos are little
better. Though Laos is one of the most closed countries in the world, thus making it hard to come upon
reliable statistics, activists who have dared stand up to the repressive Lao military regime have been
known to simply vanish. And in Thailand, which has had 18 coups or attempted coups in its modern
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history, the security forces only two years ago gunned down at least 80 civilian protesters in the streets of
Bangkok, not hesitating to transform the Thai capital into a smoking ruin of a free-fire zone. At the same
time, in the deep south of Thailand, where a separatist insurgency rages, the military has been accused of
biggest donor and investor, giving Cambodia some $500 million in soft loans two months ago. Laos could
also plausibly tilt towards China, which provides extensive training for Lao soldiers, and is probably now
Laos' biggest donor (though no one knows for sure). But even if Cambodia and Laos tilted heavily toward
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Nothing could be a better sign from the administration of President Barack Obama than a decision to kill
worst, the pivot is an actual, on-the-ground (and on-the-sea and in-the-air) effort to contain China.
Sequester aside, with levels of spending on the Department of Defense likely to fall during the
2010s, the United States cant afford the pivot. Much of it would
involve vastly expensive naval and air force weapons systems
programs that Washington cannot pay for. Already, the right-wing Washington
Times is reporting: National security officials in the military and at the Pentagon are voicing growing
worries that the second Obama administration is preparing to jettison the new policy focus on Asia known
as the pivot or rebalancing. And worry they should. The paper also reports: Evidence cited by these
officials includes a recent Chinese government visitor who was told that the White House plans to kill the
shift to Asia in mid-2013 as part of its conciliatory approach to China. Beijing is the key, but unspoken,
target of the major military and diplomatic effort to increase security in Asia and calm the fears of US allies
alarmed by what they see as the new Chinese hegemon in Asia. The new Obama foreign policy team,
especially Chuck Hagel, are reported not to be enamored of the idea of an Asian pivot, says the Times.
And then theres the messy Middle East, including a hot war in Syria and a still-simmering one in
Afghanistan, that doesnt want to be pivoted away from. As the Wall Street Journal reports today: The
Obama administration hopes to pivot away from a hyper-focus on the Middle East during its second term,
but John Kerrys maiden overseas mission as secretary of statea nine-nation odyssey across Europe and
the Persian Gulfhighlighted why that goal may be elusive. Elusive, of course, because with the Arab
Spring faltering, the war in Syria, the Israel-Palestine conflict stuck, Iraq falling apart, Irans nuclear
program and the ongoing war in Afghanistan, its not easy to focus on East Asia. To be sure, much of the
future of the 21st century will revolve around the relationship between the United States and China, so it is
the right thing to do to focus on Asia and to build a cooperative relationship with Beijing. But the United
States doesnt need the Pentagons help to solve the political and economic problems with China and to
in The Washington Times: The Pentagons top brass are second-guessing the F-35 Lightningthe most
expensive weapons system in historyas spending cuts tighten the militarys budget and a new report
says F-35 pilots cant see that well out of the cockpit. The brass are generally warning that the sequester
puts DoD spending plans in jeopardy. Perhaps, though, it is likely that the sequester will get fixed later this
year, possibly with an Obama compromise that puts Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security in jeopardy.
But the DoDs problems are bigger than the sequester, and the pivot is just too damn expensive.
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owned by the Communist Party mouthpiece Peoples Daily, called for China to strengthen its long-range strike
capabilities. Deng Xiaopings guideline to keep a low profile in the international arena, designed more than two decades
ago to cope with uncertainty produced by the collapse of the Soviet bloc, is increasingly seen by Chinas elite and public
as irrelevant and even harmful to the task of defending Chinese ever-expanding core interests. Some voices are calling
for closer alignment with Moscow and promoting the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as a new pole in
it appear, will have to be carefully calibrated. Ignoring greater Chinese assertiveness would fuel the beliefalready
emerging in China and elsewhere that the United States is in inexorable decline. History shows that when great powers
falter, China does not hesitate to seize the opportunity to advance its interests, especially in the South China Sea. As
American forces withdrew from Vietnam in the mid-1970s, the Chinese grabbed the Paracel Islands from Saigon. Similarly,
when the Soviet Union withdrew from Vietnams Cam Ranh Bay and the United States terminated its base agreement with
seek at all costs to avoid having to choose between the United States and China.
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with the expectation that uncertainty will restrain U.S. military action. Unfortunately, China's strategy
Chinese nuclear missiles. Some Chinese missiles, particularly the DF-21, can be armed with either a
Chinese conventional war plans call for longrange "strategic" conventional missile strikes at key enemy targets,
including U.S. military bases on allied soil and the continental United
States. If this were not confusing enough already, The Science of Second Artillery Operations contains
conventional or a nuclear warhead.
a section on "lowering the nuclear threshold" that details procedures for alerting China's nuclear forces in a
crisis for the express purpose of forcing a halt to an enemy's conventional attacks on a select group of
targets, such as Chinese nuclear power plants, large dams and civilian population centers. Although the
Science of Second Artillery Operations unambiguously states that if alerting China's nuclear missile forces
fails to halt conventional enemy attacks China will hold firm to its "no first use" commitment, U.S. decisionmakers might not believe it. Indeed, U.S. interlocutors have repeatedly told their Chinese counterparts that
"rebalancing" U.S. military forces in response to perceived relative increases in Chinese military
China sees this so-called "pivot" to Asia, especially when pared with
as a policy of containment. Both
sides downplay the risks of conflict, but they also see each other as
potential adversaries, and are hedging their diplomatic bets with
expensive investments in new military hardware, including new technologies
capabilities.
that will expand the conflict into cyberspace and outer space. Territorial disputes between China and U.S.
allies, rising nationalist sentiment in the region, and the potential for domestic political instability within
China could produce any number of casussen belli that could trigger the conventional conflict that carries
the risk of ending in a nuclear war.
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American
response is due in part to the surprising advancements made by the
Chinese military, such as the successful developments of its aircraft carrier, advanced jet fighters,
administrations, although still enough to unnecessarily antagonize the Chinese." This
and more cost-effective drones. China-U.S. relations expert Wu Xinbo advises the U.S. not to just focus on
China's rising capabilities, but also to "pay attention to how China will use its military power." It is not
surprising that China wants to catch up militarily, as it is a dominant economic power that has the means
might threaten U.S. dominance in these regions insofar as they see American forces as encroachments
that they must guard against. Conversely, Washington sees itself as an important player in the Pacific, with
certain obligations and diplomatic interests to which it must attend. Notable strategic maneuvers
stemming from this perception include the stationing of 250 U.S. Marines in Australia, and military drills
An important plan that is receiving greater official attention
and Chinese condemnation is "Air Sea Battle," a comprehensive
strategy developed by the Department of Defense in case "an angry,
aggressive and heavily armed China" should decide to attack
American forces. This counterattack by the Air Force and the Navy would involve conventional
with Japan.
strike tactics. A graphic depicting the strategy can be found here. Developed by Andrew Marshall and
targeted to open up the area of denial, which includes the disputed areas within the East and South China
Dispersing aircraft to Tinian and Palau islands, which are outside the
in order to confuse the enemy's
targeting processes. Critics doubt the necessity of such a plan. MIT Security Studies Program
director Barry Posen says that instead of questioning whether there will be
security concerns or threats, the highly influential Office of Net
Assessment in the Pentagon, which Andrew Marshall heads, convince[s] others to act
as if the worst cases are inevitable. In fact, over two dozen war scenarios run by
seas. 3.
Krepinevich's defense think tank, the Center for Budgetary and Strategic Assessments, cast China as an
may come to fruition. However, to realize this plan, there would have to be an increase in or reallocation of
military spending, which is something that may not be realized if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff this
upcoming January. Undoubtedly, such strategies have been a growing source of concern for Beijing.
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the
honestly, and come up with practical solutions that move beyond their ideological and cultural differences.
If not done soon, we will all suffer.
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One might
have thought that on a spectrum of ASEAN states from the most to
the least deferential toward China, reactions would have run from
jeers to cheers. They did not. No government was willing to denounce the pivot and jeopardise
And in June 2012 Singapore agreed to host in rotation as many as four US combat ships.
the chance of somehow benefiting from it. The shift in Washingtons attention from Afghanistan to ASEAN
could easily be seen by Southeast Asian policy makers as a way to slow, if not reduce, their own increasing
pivots economic rationale. This imbalance of security over economy tended to legitimate a division of
labour that from an American viewpoint could only seem invidious. By enlarging its profile in the western
formula that, crudely put, ran thus: Americans would make the peace; Asians would make the money.
Accordingly, if the actual purpose of Obamas pivot could be summarised in a single word, that word is
inclusion, in terms of both security and economy. Any inclination to portray the pivot as a purely military
ploy is unfair. Obama travelled to Darwin and Bali in November 2011 from Honolulu. In Hawaii he hosted
the annual APEC forum, where he claimed progress in ongoing talks for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
In July 2012 in Cambodia, Secretary Clinton co-hosted the first USASEAN Business Forum, and the US
ASEAN Expanded Economic Engagement Initiative was launched in November 2012. On the pivots
among the 11 governments negotiating the US-backed TPP in Auckland in December 2012. Meanwhile, at
its summit in Phnom Penh a month before, ASEAN could have pleased China by supporting Beijings
preferred vehicle for regional economic cooperation, ASEAN+3, which necessarily excludes the United
States while limiting the non-ASEAN checks on Chinese influence to Japan and South Korea. ASEAN agreed
instead to launch negotiations toward a new entity: a 16-member Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) that would augment the ASEAN+3 grouping by adding three more potential restraints
on China Australia, India and New Zealand. The economic rationale for including these six non-ASEAN
states was that they already have FTAs with ASEAN. But five of the six, all but China, are democracies
oriented more or less toward the West. The potentially China-balancing value of that distribution was not
lost on those who proposed RCEP as a superior alternative to ASEAN+3. The
result is a benign
race between two vastly different models of economic integration:
the non-American, loosely declarative RCEP that subsumes existing
arrangements, versus the American-promoted, intrusively goldstandard TPP that requires domestic reform. Democracy distinguishes the pivot
least. As a policy priority in Washington, spreading democracy in Asia has been upstaged by security
and economic concerns, including Chinas naval moves and Americas fiscal woes. Meanwhile in Southeast
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members. The United States did quickly move to support the dramatic political opening of Myanmar.
But even in that democratising narrative, security and economics loomed large. President Thein Seins own
reasons to promote reform reflected less a conversion to liberal ideology than a nationalistic wish to
reduce the countrys overdependence on China on the one hand, and a desire to catch up with the
economies of the modern world on the other. While celebrating the democratic consequences, Washington
treated these motivations as opportunities for strategic access. Since its birth during the Cold War,
Mao China, the Soviet Unions self-shrinkage into Russia and irrelevance, and the strategic reticence and
economic stagnation of Japan. Viewed from Southeast Asia, the times have now changed in at least two
ways. First, Chinas spectacular material ascent and now military assertion appear to have emboldened its
current leaders. Second, to the extent that the American pivot is a response to this challenge, it appears to
open an ambiguous future. If SinoAmerican rivalry escalates, ASEANs members could split into Chinadeferring and China-defying camps, ruining the groups ability to lead. In contrast, a peaceful balancing of
power between Beijing and Washington could refurbish space for ASEAN to operate independently between
the two. But what ASEAN has until now been unprepared to face is the need to rebalance the ASEAN Way
On security,
ASEANs habit of catering to the lowest common denominator
undercuts its ability to deal with Chinese intimidation. That
encourages ASEAN members to rely on the American pivot as
leverage against Beijing. But that reliance may overestimate the
willingness of Washington to become involved, leaving ASEAN worse
off. Or, if the United States does confront China, escalation could
badly damage both Southeast Asian security and ASEANs reputation
for maintaining it. These challenges hardly augur the end of ASEAN. But the groups
centrality on matters of security and its creativity on economic
questions are being tested in two very different ways: by Beijings
strategy of assertion in the South China Sea, and by the pressure for
inclusion represented by Washingtons pivot toward Southeast Asia.
The results are not yet known. For now, however, the case for
optimism is, and is likely to remain, distinctly weaker on regional
security than it is for the regions economy.
by making it somewhat less consensual and correspondingly more effective.
the rival Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. APEC was initiated by Australia and Japan and was strongly supported by the US.
However, it quickly became an institutional threat to ASEAN as it became relied upon by the region's great powers to shape regional
economics and marginalized ASEAN's political raison d'tre in East Asia. In response, in 1990 ASEAN created the "Kuching Consensus", which
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aimed to limit APEC to "a consultative forum on economic issues," and attempted to prevent formal institutionalization of APEC by constraining
its functional expansion. This negative experience led ASEAN to seek ways to prevent political marginalization from the great powers. During
early 1990s. The uncertainty was driven by the 1992 collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington's failure to bail out the region's economies
after the 199798 Asian financial crisis and the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that led the US to focus more on the Middle East. In
this context, ASEAN has been a useful framework to help fill Southeast Asia's power vacuum. In addition, ASEAN became a forum for shaping
Second, the
Sino-Japanese political rivalry in East Asia created a better stage for
"ASEAN Centrality". Because it would be difficult for either China or
Japan to lead without creating regional blocs, ASEAN could utilize
this rivalry to lead East Asian multilateralism. With the establishment of ASEAN+3, Japan,
the region's political outlook instead of only balancing and counterbalancing political power among member states.
the existing great economic power in Asia, and China, the potential future economic leader in the region and beyond, often had political
disputes over the development of economic, political, and security multilateral frameworks. The 2005 establishment of the EAS was a case
in point. China strongly supported Malaysia's initiative to create a strong political regional framework through EAS by including only ASEAN+3
member states. On the other hand, Japan vigorously backed Indonesia's separate initiative to include other democratic states such as
Australia, India, and New Zealand. As such, the region's great powers evaded direct confrontation by positioning ASEAN in the middle.
Strategic middleman "ASEAN Centrality" functions with the understanding that there are certain political tensions among regional powers. In
this competitive state, gaining support from ASEAN's 10 members means regional powers can dramatically increase their political leverage
over rivals, thus making ASEAN a subject of their interest and attention. Nevertheless, this trend has gradually shifted. Regional powers are
now overhauling their strategy from vying for the balance of influence to competing for the balance of power in the region. The East Asian
security environment began to change in 2009 when China and other regional states intensified their territorial disputes with each other in the
controversial "nine dash line" map. Beijing submitted its expansive maritime claim to the United Nations on May 7, 2009. That claim was
made in response to a Malaysia-Vietnam joint submission on their sovereignty to certain South China Sea areas on May 6, 2009, a move which
was highly criticized at the time by China and the Philippines. China's counter-claim also invited severe criticism from other Southeast Asian
defense linkages with outside powers to counter China's perceived assertiveness. For example, Japan issued a new National Defense
Program Guideline in 2010 which asserted the necessity for Japan to "cautiously watch" China's growing military capabilities. Japan also aimed
to strengthen bilateral strategic linkages, including the US-Japan alliance, a strategic partnership with India, and trilateral dialogues with USAustralia and US-India. The Philippines, meanwhile, has sought public reassurance of its mutual defense treaty with the US and developed
other defense linkages, including maritime cooperation with India and Japan. Manila's drive for more great power linkages came after the 2011
Reed Bank and 2012 Scarborough Reef incidents with China. Vietnam has also strengthened bilateral security ties, as seen in its 2012 US-
ASEAN faces significant internal divisions among members with different opportunity-threat perceptions of China. ASEAN has faced this
difficulty since its inception in 1967 as a bulwark against the spread of regional communism. The expansion of the grouping's membership
from six to ten members in the 1990s has made it more difficult to reach a consensus, particularly on security issues where China has a
competing interest. As regional power rivalry rises, states are increasingly choosing to bypass ASEAN and individually engage its member
states on a bilateral basis in order to strengthen their balancing or counterbalancing strategies. This "divide and rule" strategy will likely
fragmentation was
illustrated at the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in July 2012, when ASEAN failed for the first time to issue a joint communiqu due to
further weaken ASEAN solidarity, a key component of "ASEAN Centrality". This trend towards
disagreements between China ally Cambodia and rival claimant the Philippines over whether to refer to the South China Sea in the statement.
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, Abe
referred to ASEAN as "a supremely vital linchpin in terms of its
importance to our diplomatic strategy." Moreover, ASEAN and India recently elevated their relations
diplomacy: democratic values, rule of laws, open economies, cultural exchanges and human exchanges. In the same speech
to "strategic partnership" and issued a "Vision Statement" in December 2012 which further incorporated issues of maritime security and
freedom of navigation. These overtures and initiatives indicate that ASEAN and its affiliated institutions still have a comparative advantage
in shaping and influencing East Asia's security landscape and could play a key role in maintaining regional maritime stability. ASEAN would be
wise to go beyond staging fora for talks discussions among member states and move to establish a monitoring mechanism to maintain the
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More broadly, the Obama administration is strengthening its military alliances in Asia with Japan and South Korea as well
joint war games, including a major naval exercise in North East Asia last month. The driving force behind the Obama
administrations reckless confrontation with China is the historic decline of US imperialism. Over the past two decades,
Washington has repeatedly resorted to wars of aggression, especially in the Middle East, exploiting its military dominance
insignificant clash over Scarborough Shoal can rapidly become an international trial of strength as China defends its core
interests and the US militarily backs its Philippine ally. The
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ally the Philippines, as well as Vietnam and Malaysia. Beijing is also seeking to enforce controls on fishing in the South
China Sea, and bans on developing energy and mineral resources in the waters, seabed and subsoil it claims, unless they
are done with Chinese approval. But it is in the East China Sea that maritime tensions are currently most acute. There,
midway between Taiwan and Okinawa in southern Japan, where the U.S. has important military bases. Both sides have
recently scrambled jet fighters and confronted each others patrol boats in waters surrounding the islands. The
conflicting sovereignty
claims in the East and South China seas, which inflame nationalism,
are especially troublesome friction points and can be ripe for
miscalculation. With the Asia-Pacific area anxious about a clash
either accidental or intentional Japan, encouraged by the U.S., has
made some diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with China. It sent an envoy to
commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Adm. Cecil D. Haney, warned recently that
Beijing and proposed a summit or high-level talks. However, in calling for calm, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that there
was no room for negotiations over the sovereignty of the Senkakus, something Beijing insists must take place with
Tokyo. Both sides appear to be staking out their vital or core national interests, while building their military strength.
China will never give up its core territorial and security interests,
said Xi Jinping on Jan. 28 in his first formal presentation of foreign policy since taking over as leader of both the
ruling Chinese Communist Party and the armed forces in November. A summary of his speech was published in state
media.
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Human
Rights Council experts are acutely aware of the risk of these terms
being used as a pretext by Governments to place arbitrary,
disproportionate and unnecessary restrictions on human rights. We
strongly encourage the inclusion of language which makes explicit that the restrictions must be provided by law and
conform to the strict tests of necessity and proportionality, and that these restrictions may not put in jeopardy the right
instance, they will be subjected to torture). Again, such provisions should not be contingent on domestic laws,
achieve this, we call on all ASEAN member States to consult further with the people of the region, including civil society
organisations, and to take on board their concerns and aspirations.
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For better or worse, the "pivot to the Asia-Pacific" has gained worldwide attention. This shift in focus away
from Europe and the Middle East and toward the Pacific would not only reorganize the broad goals and
resources of the US, but it could also reorder the balance of power in East Asia. It is no wonder, then, that
so much attention has been paid to the appointment of more cautious foreign policy leaders at the start of
US President Barack Obama's second term. While it seems that the appointment of John Kerry at the
Department of State and Chuck Hagel at the Pentagon indicate a change of heart, it is more likely that the
White House is coming to terms with the fact that the Asia pivot will be more difficult than it had initially
While the desire in the White House to refocus on the Pacific
remains strong, events in the Middle East will continue to make the
pivot more of a dream than a reality. Since the late 1970s, regional stability
and access to energy resources have been at the heart of US policy
toward the Middle East, and have been deemed central to the national interest. The wars
in Afghanistan and Iraq were intended to achieve these goals and
enhance national security, yet they have only produced
contradictory effects. Sectarian politics continue to threaten to pull apart the Iraqi state, and
the Taliban will remain influential after the last US troops leave Afghanistan next year. The rest of
the Middle East is not doing any better. The Syrian civil war could
become a regional conflict; Iran continues to pursue nuclear
weapons, while Israel threatens a preventive strike in response ; and the
thought.
revolutions of the Arab Spring have done little to diffuse long-standing grievances among the region's
first trip abroad was more about conferring with European allies than it was about immediately addressing
the crises in Syria and Egypt. This is a welcome sign among those on both sides of the Atlantic that wish to
see a more constructive and closer cooperation on foreign policy. It was less exciting for those who want to
the future of US foreign policy. Three big ideas, idealism, pragmatism and isolationism, historically push
and pull foreign policy in different directions, and the current era is no different. While Americans deeply
desire a consistent "big picture" strategy, their disagreements over what it should be and how to achieve it
and South Korea, and it has 28,000 soldiers in South Korea that it needs to protect from a nuclear and
bellicose North Korea.
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Middle East Washington Post, senior fellow in the Center on the United
States and Europe in Foreign Policy at Brookings,
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-11-20/opinions/35510489_1_obamaadministration-middle-east-obama-campaign, KTG
The irony, of course, is that every time the Obama administration tries to turn
toward Asia, the Middle East drags it back literally, in the case of Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton. Its an illusion to think we will not continue to be drawn into Middle East affairs. The
world is no longer neatly divided by distinct regions, if it ever was. Events in the Middle East affect the
present world order is seamless, and so is the global strategy necessary to sustain it. As one prominent
statesman expressed the general puzzlement here, Cant the United States walk and chew gum at the
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chemical weapons that is important to maintain. Deliberate use of chemical weapons by government
forces against either rebel groups or population centers considered sympathetic to their cause is certainly
the scenario that has attracted the most concern. But it is just one of many conceivable scenarios to worry
about. For example, should rebel forces progressively gain the upper hand -as they seem to be doing--the regime or elements of the regime might retreat to predominantly Alawite
cannot be discounted.
Extinction
Ochs 2, Past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens
Coalition, Member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics
Project, and Member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group [Richard
Ochs, , June 9, 2002, Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately,
http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological
weapons, many without a known cure or vaccine, are an extreme danger to the continued
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survival of life on earth. Any perceived military value or deterrence pales in comparison to the great risk these
weapons pose just sitting in vials in laboratories. While a nuclear winter, resulting from a massive exchange of nuclear
weapons, could also kill off most of life on earth and severely
compromise the health of future generations, they are easier to
control. Biological weapons, on the other hand, can get out of
control very easily, as the recent anthrax attacks has demonstrated.
There is no way to guarantee the security of these doomsday weapons because very tiny amounts can be stolen or accidentally
released and then grow or be grown to horrendous proportions . The Black Death of the Middle Ages would be
small in comparison to the potential damage bioweapons could cause. Abolition of chemical weapons is less of a priority because, while they
can also kill millions of people outright, their persistence in the environment would be less than nuclear or biological agents or more localized.
Hence, chemical weapons would have a lesser effect on future generations of innocent people and the natural environment. Like the
Bush administration has just changed the U.S. nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation against threats upon allies by conventional
weapons. The past doctrine allowed such use only as a last resort when our nations survival was at stake. Will the new policy also allow easier
use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope?
a gap, the former senior intelligence official said. Decisive is the key word of the Air Forces planning. Its a tough
decision. But we made it in Japan. The official continues to explain how White House and Pentagon officials are
considering the nuclear option for Iran, Nuclear planners go through extensive training and learn the technical details of
damage and fallout - were talking about mushroom clouds, radiation, mass casualties, and contamination over years. This
is not an underground nuclear test, where all you see is the earth raised a little bit. These politicians dont have a clue,
and whenever anybody tries to get it out remove the nuclear option theyre shouted down. Understandably, some
members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff were not comfortable about consideration of the nuclear option in a first strike, and
some officers have even discussed resigning. Hersh quotes the former intelligence officer as saying, Late this winter, the
Joint Chiefs of Staff sought to remove the nuclear option from the evolving war plans for Iran - without success. The White
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escalation into nuclear war, probably the accidental factor is one that deserves particular attention since its likelihood is
much greater than commonly perceived. In an article, 20 Mishaps that Might Have Started a Nuclear War, Phillips cites
the historical record to illustrate how an accident, misinterpretation, or false alarm could ignite a nuclear war. Most of
these incidents occurred during a time of intense tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in the Cuban Missile
Crisis, but other mishaps occurred during other times, with the most recent one in 1995. Close inspection of each of these
incidents reveals how likely it is that an accident or misinterpretation of phenomena or data (glitch) can lead to
nuclear confrontation and war. In his overall analysis, Phillips writes: The probability of actual progression to nuclear war
on any one of the occasions listed may have been small, due to planned failsafe features in the warning and launch
systems, and to responsible action by those in the chain of command when the failsafe features had failed. However, the
accumulation of small probabilities of disaster from a long sequence of risks adds up to serious danger. There is no way of
telling what the actual level of risk was in these mishaps but if the chance of disaster in every one of the 20 incidents had
been only 1 in 100, it is a mathematical fact that the chance of surviving all 20 would have been 82%, i.e. about the same
as the chance of surviving a single pull of the trigger at Russian roulette played with a 6-shooter. With a similar series of
mishaps on the Soviet side: another pull of the trigger. If the risk in some of the events had been as high as 1 in 10, then
Aggression in the
Middle East along with the willingness to use lowyield bunker
busting nukes by the U.S. only increases the likelihood of nuclear
war and catastrophe in the future. White House and Pentagon
policymakers are seriously considering the use of strategic nuclear
weapons against Iran. As Ryan McMaken explains, someone at the Pentagon who had . . .not yet
the chance of surviving just seven such events would have been less than 50:50.
completed the transformation into a complete sociopath leaked the Nuclear Posture Review which outlined plans for a
nuclear end game with Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Syria, none of which possess nuclear weapons. The report also
outlined plans to let the missiles fly on Russia and China as well, even though virtually everyone on the face of the Earth
thought we had actually normalized relations with them. It turns out, much to the surprise of the Chinese and the
Russians, that they are still potential enemies in a nuclear holocaust.
The Bush administration has put together all the elements it needs to justify the impending
military action against Iran. Unlike in the case of Iraq, it will happen without warning, and
bombs were nuclear. Why a Nuclear Attack on Iran Is a Bad Idea Now that we have outlined
what is very close to happening, let us discuss briefly why everything possible should be
case scenario, the U.S. will destroy all nuclear, chemical, and missile facilities in Iran with
conventional and low-yield nuclear weapons in a lightning surprise attack, and Iran will be
paralyzed and decide not to retaliate for fear of a vastly more devastating nuclear attack.
In the short term, the U.S. will succeed, leaving no Iranian nuclear program, civilian or
otherwise. Iran will no longer threaten Israel, a regime change will ensue, and a pro-
the longterm consequences are dire. The nuclear threshold will have been
crossed by a nuclear superpower against a non-nuclear country. Many more
countries will rush to get their own nuclear weapons as a
deterrent. With no taboo against the use of nuclear weapons, they
Western government will emerge. However, even in the best-case scenario,
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will certainly be used again. Nuclear conflicts will occur within the
next 10 to 20 years, and will escalate until much of the world is
destroyed. Let us remember that the destructive power of existing
nuclear arsenals is approximately one million times that of the Hiroshima bomb,
enough to erase Earth's population many times over.
A2 NAFTA Good
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Defense
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1NC---Defense
NAFTA has failed in all three countries.
Brian Lustig and Nan Gibson, 2013, NAFTA a failure thus far, group
reports Economic Policy Institute, Lustig used to direct media relations for
the EPI and has a BA in International Affairs from Emory and an MA in
International Relations from GWU, Nan Gibson is at the EPI;
http://www.epi.org/publication/press_releases_failedexppr/, KTG
Washington, D.C. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has failed to perform as
promised and should be repealed or significantly restructured , reports a
coalition of six policy-research organizations. Although NAFTA has benefited some sectors of the economy, its
overall impact on working families in the three signatory countries
the United States, Canada, and Mexico has been negative. In
anticipation of the release by President Clinton of a congressionally mandated comprehensive study on the operation and
effects of NAFTA, the group has prepared a report that examines the overall impact of NAFTA since its implementation.
The Failed Experiment: NAFTA at Three Years evaluates the promised benefits of the agreement in several broad areas:
the general economies of the participating countries, the living standards of their populations, labor relations throughout
In
the United States, NAFTA: * Put downward pressure on wages and living
standards; * Created deep and probably chronic trade deficits with its neighbors; *
Displaced more than 400,000 jobs; * Weakened workers rights and reduced
employee bargaining power; * Exacerbated environmental and public-health
damage along the U.S.-Mexico border; * Compromised food safety standards; and
* Increased drug trafficking due to insufficient border inspections and heavier truck traffic from
Mexico. In Mexico, NAFTA: * Precipitated the 1994 peso collapse , which led to
an economic depression; * Eliminated more than 2 million jobs; * Reduced real
hourly wages by 27% from 1994 levels; * Caused the failure of more than 28,000
small businesses; and * Weakened labor standards and increased violations of worker
rights. Canada, too, has suffered the continued effects of a recession
that began in 1989 with the ratification of the original U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The effective
North America, and the continents environment. It finds that NAFTA has fallen far short in each of these areas.
merger with the U.S. economy has increased unemployment and forced Canada to begin to dismantle its longstanding
social safety net, resulting in falling standards of living for the average Canadian.
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billion. Our trade with Mexico showed a $1.6 billion surplus in 1993 but by 2010, our deficit had reached $61.6 billion. Eccentric billionaire
and 1992 presidential candidate H. Ross Perot was roundly mocked for predicting a "giant sucking sound" of jobs going to Mexico if NAFTA
passed. But he has been vindicated. The Department of Labor has estimated that NAFTA cost America 525,000 jobs between 1994 and 2002.
increased trade surplus with Mexico, but the reverse. As manufacturing jobs disappeared, workers were down-scaled to lower-paying, lesssecure services jobs. Within manufacturing, the threat of employers to move production to Mexico proved a powerful weapon for undercutting
hamstrung by a work force with a poor level of education, and a sizable chunk of the gross domestic product in devoted to exports rather than
production for home consumption. According to official figures that year, fewer than 18 million Mexicans made more than 5,000 pesos a
month. And even that was only about $625: roughly half the U.S. poverty line for a family of four. This has not improved much since, so, as
But if NAFTA wasn't a plausible economic bonanza for the U.S. and America's establishment knew it, then what was going on? Krugman again
supplies an answer, writing in Foreign Affairs that, "For the United States, NAFTA is essentially a foreign policy rather than an economic issue."
The real agenda was to keep people like President Carlos Salinas, friendly with powerful interests in the U.S., in power in Mexico City. Bottom
promote NAFTA as a jobs-creation program. Based on little more than guesswork, a few economists argued that NAFTA would boost our trade
surplus with Mexico, and thus produce a net gain in jobs. With utterly spurious precision, the administration settled on a figure of 200,000 jobs
created--and this became the core of the NAFTA sales pitch. NAFTA was sold in Mexico as Mexico's ticket to the big time. Mexicans were told
they were choosing between gradually converging with America's advanced economy and regressing to the status of a backwater like
neighboring Guatemala. What actually happened? In reality, the income gap between the United States and Mexico grew (by over 10
percent) in the first decade of the agreement. This doesn't mean America boomed; we didn't. But Mexico slumped terribly. In NAFTA's first
decade, the Mexican economy averaged 1.8 percent real growth per capita. By contrast, under the protectionist economic policies of 1948-73,
Mexico had averaged 3.2 percent growth. Because Mexico's labor force grows by a million people a year, job creation must get ahead of this
curve in order to raise wages; this is simply not happening. Mexican workers can often be hired for less than the taxes on American workers;
the average maquiladora wage is $1.82/hr. The maquiladora sector is deliberately isolated from the rest of the Mexican economy and
contributes little to it. Workers' rights, wages, and benefits are deliberately suppressed. Environmental laws are frequently just ignored.
wiped out by cheap American food exports, massively subsidized by our various farm programs. Promoters of NAFTA have tried to cover up
its problems by using inappropriate yardsticks of success. For example, they have claimed that the expansion of total trade among the three
nations vindicates the pact. But this expansion has been due to a growing American deficit. Because a growing deficit means, by definition,
that our imports have been growing faster than our exports, there is no way that economic growth per se will ever solve the problem.
Congress was right to reject NAFTA initially, which never enjoyed sincere majority support in either the House or the Senate and was bought
with sheer patronage by Bill Clinton. To be fair, NAFTA is not the only thing that has been wrong with the Mexican economy in recent decades.
1999, Mexican manufacturing wages fell 21 percent. It gets worse. Despite the fact that, compared to the U.S., Mexico is a cheap-labor
commentator William Greider, "The Mexican maquiladora cities thought they were going to become the next South Korea, but instead they
Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic were lumped together in the Central America Free Trade Agreement
Colombia, South Korea, Oman and Panama were pending ratification, and the U.S. was in stalled negotiations with Malaysia, Thailand and the
United Arab Emirates. Next on the list are reportedly Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In December 2009, the Obama
administration announced its intention to eventually join the existing Trans-Pacific Partnership and elevate it into a full-blown free trade area
comprising the U.S. plus Singapore, Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, Australia, Peru, and Vietnam. In December 2010, the administration reached a
slightly-improved deal with South Korea and announced it would push for Congressional ratification.
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2NC
Extend the Lustig and Gibson evidenceNAFTA has failed
in all countries its a part of. In the US, it has reduced
wages, created trade deficits, displaced jobs, and ruined
environmental regulations and food standards. In Mexico,
NAFTA led to the peso collapse and eliminated jobs, and in
Canada also led to a major recession.
Turn- NAFTA increases trade deficits, empirics prove
Hufbauer is WRONGGG.
Catie Duckworth, June 19 2012, The Failures of NAFTA, Duckworth is a
research associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Major in Spanish
and International Studies at Dickinson University http://www.coha.org/thefailures-of-nafta/, KTG
In 1992, Gary Hufbauer, a NAFTA enthusiast from the Institute of International Economics, predicted
that NAFTA will generate a $7 to $9 billion [USD] surplus that would ensure the
net creation of 170,000 jobs in the U.S. economy the first year.(5) However, quite the opposite
occurred; the U.S. trade deficit with both Mexico and Canada
increased, costing the United States an estimated 150,000 jobs in 1994
alone.(6) According to the United States Census Bureau, while the United States actually had a trade surplus with Mexico
of approximately $1 billion USD in both 1993 and 1994, by 2007 the growing trade deficit with Mexico had reached an alltime high, at $74 billion USD.(7) Although
imports from Mexico and a growing trade deficit have led to job losses, mostly in high-wage, non-college-educated
manufacturing positions, in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Colombia.(9) When these displaced American workers
later re-enter the job market, they find difficulty securing new jobs and often have to settle for markedly lower wages. As
Perhaps
the most devastating blow dealt by NAFTA to the Mexican economy
was the near destruction of Mexicos agricultural sector, in which 2
million farm workers lost their jobs and 8 million small-scale farmers
poverty rate in Mexico at 51.3 percent.(12) Source: Omar Torres/Agence France-Press- Getty Images
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were forced to sell their land at disastrously low prices, or desert it,
due to sharply declining food prices.(13) Importantly, the U.S. government subsidizes many
domestically produced agricultural products, allowing the products to be sold to Mexico at prices 30 percent below the
supplier of Mexico. In one case, U.S. corn exports, by maintaining subsidized prices, have all but rendered Mexican corn
cultivation obsolete and non-competitive. Corn, or maize, had been one of the main crops and an integral part of the
identity of the Mexican people since pre-Columbian days, but due to subsidized U.S. agricultural products, this tradition
has all but come to an end. Thus, NAFTA has not only negatively impacted Mexicos economy, but also altered its national
and constructed factories along the U.S.-Mexico border, creating the maquiladora system. While these factories, or
maquilas, created 1.3 million jobs in the export-manufacturing sector, they still were not able to counterbalance jobs lost
in the agricultural sector, and it was not long before foreign competition threatened these newly created jobs.(15) Since
manufacturing sector now earn about a fourth of their pre-NAFTA wages.(17) Additionally, the prices of most goods in
Mexico have significantly increased. The cost of tortillas, which represent 75 percent of the daily caloric intake for
Mexicos poor, increased by 571 percent in the first six years of NAFTA, rendering meager wages even more insufficient
than before NAFTAs implementation(18) and making it increasingly difficult for families to meet basic needs. Wage
disparities between Americans and Mexicans have also widened. In 1994, Mexicans earned 23 percent of what Americans
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Negotiations and Issues for Congress, Ian F. Fergusson- coordinator for FAS
and specialist in International trade and finance, William H. Cooper- associate
at FAS and specialist in international trade and finance, Remy Jurenasspecialist in agricultural policy, Brock R. Williams- Analyst in International
trade and Finance, Federation of American Scientists,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42694.pdf, KTG
A successfully concluded TPP agreement may shape the future
course of multilateral trade liberalization. After 10 years of negotiations, the Doha
Round of multilateral trade negotiations is at an impasse, and WTO members are developing new
promoting trade liberalization at the time when the WTO is not seen to be doing so, it may attract
additional countries to the negotiations.
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follows both the implementation of NAFTA and the enactment of the 1996 U.S. Farm Bill, which significantly
changed the nature of U.S. farm support. We estimate dumping margins and the costs to Mexican
We estimate Mexican
losses for the eight products at $12.8 billion over the nine-year
period, more than the value of Mexican tomato exports to the United States. Corn farmers experienced
producers of prices driven below production costs by U.S. policies.
the greatest losses: $6.5 billion, an average of $99 per hectare per year.
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The wide-ranging interview was recorded just a few hours before the incoming leader met with U.S.
Nieto said he
planned to focus on building trust and boosting economic ties to
create jobs. Mexican leader eyes economic ties with U.S. "We've lost presence and
competitiveness on the international market. ... There's still space, an
President Barack Obama in Washington. In his first meeting with Obama, Pena
opportunity, to achieve greater integration as far as productivity, which will allow us to improve the
competitive conditions for creating jobs across North America," he said.
Tipping Point: Why the United States Must Assist Mexico in the Mexican Drug
War Agathai Quarterly Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, Winter 2011
http://www.mortarboardatucla.org/uploads/4/7/8/9/4789362/winter_journal.pd
f#page=26
The third reason why the United States must enhance its aid to Mexico is the possibility of a failed Mexican
The drug war in Mexico has become a life or death struggle for
the Mexican government. Despite substantial US aid, the Mexican authorities
remain outgunned and outmanned. The drug cartels, although not acting as
an alternative government per say, enjoy near autonomy throughout a number of
cities across the country, including border cities such as Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez. In effect, the
Mexican government has completely committed itself to fighting
against the drug cartels, but is at best failing to make progress and at worst losing the war.
state.
What is even more disheartening is the consideration that the drug cartels are the ones with time on their
side. While the Mexican government has neither the resources nor the man power to continue its major
offensive without more substantial assistance from the United States, the drug cartels remain as powerful
number of scholars and politicians, including Mexican President Calderon, who ardently argue that the
Mexican state will not fail, it is significant to note that the US government is already preparing itself for
that possibility. In fact, according to a study by the United States Joint Forces Command, which looks to
uncover future developments to ensure that the US military will not be caught off guard, Mexico is
considered a large and important [state that] bear[s] consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse.177
The study also states that the
If
the Mexican government were to fail, the United States would be
forced to take direct military action against the drug cartels. As the Joint
product of the US governments fear that such an event has a very real potential to actually occur.
Forces Command report notes, any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response
based on the serious implications for homeland security 175 Serrano, No longer next door. 176
Ruben Navarette Jr., Commentary: What Mexicos drug war means for U.S., CNNPolitics.com, February
27, 2009. 177 Bernd Debusmann, Among top U.S. fear: A failed Mexican state, The New York Times,
January 9, 2009. 178 Ibid 179 Joshua Rhett Miller, If Violence Escalates in Mexico, Texas Officials Plan to
That
response could prove to be nothing less than a full scale war
because, unlike in the current situation, the United States would not
be Ready, FoxNews.com, February 12, 2009. Agathai Quarterly Journal 27 alone.180
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have the luxury of having the Mexico state to fight on its behalf.
Essentially, if the United States does not provide more meaningful
aid now, then it may be forced to fight another war that would affect
its own citizenry directly. It is irrefutable that the amount of aid that is necessary is
substantially more than the four hundred million dollars worth that the United States has already
promised , through the Mrida Initiative. But all of those extra costs, all of which are economic, pale in
comparison to the amount of money and manpower that the United States would have to expend to win a
war against the drug cartels directly. Therefore, it would be prudent for the US to provide more aid now
rather than waiting and possibly being forced into a position where it has no choice but to fight a war on its
home front.
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many Mexico cheerleaders from government officials to foreign investors to embassy diplomats are
relentless massacres and beheadings, or reports like the one released last week by Human Rights Watch
about the 27,000 Mexicans who have disappeared during the drug war.
With a new year and a new government, the way the world views
Mexico has already changed dramatically. Mexico has enviable
economic stability and a forecast for growth, improved social
mobility, and an emerging middle class. It is competing with Brazil to
become the economic darling of Latin America and is challenging
China in manufacturing prowess. The drug war rages on in many regions, but optimism
for Mexicos future is trumping the dark prognoses of the recent past.
doubting the countrys macroeconomic successes, economists say. A stable currency over nearly 20 years,
steady (if sometimes slow) economic growth; and fiscal discipline have combined to keep Mexico sailing in
smooth waters. Mexico has signed a dozen trade pacts, which have opened it to the world. Thats the
birds eye view.
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The other
cost, the one that we, north of the border pay, is the constant
migration of these displaced rural workers into the United States.
year period, more than 10 percent of the U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade value annually.
Their remittances, which were less than $4 billion in 1994 when NAFTA took effect, rose to $10 billion in 2002, and then
$20 billion three years later, according to the Bank of Mexico. Even in the recession, Mexicans sent home $21.13 billion in
2010. Remittances total 3 percent of Mexicos gross domestic product, according to Frank Holmes, investment analyst and
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percent in the last three years, the CNC says. CNC leader Cruz Lopez Aguilar, who is also a PRI congressman, blames the
ills of Mexican agriculture on NAFTA. The
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Mexican sociologist, Mario Antonio Velasquez Navarrete, came to Elon University to relay the message that
NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) has failed the Mexican economy and
in turn, forced Mexican migration towards the United States. A great
deal of Elon University students attended the meeting last evening in the Yeager Recital Hall. Velasquez
Navarrete spoke only Spanish and his words were translated by Todd Miller, both work along-side each
The agreement was pursued by business interests in all three countries and opposed by labor,
environmental, and other business interests, in all three countries .
The agreements
promised Mexico would be part of the first world and better jobs and
conditions of life for their people. Velasquez Navarrete stressed that the trade
agreement between the three countries has done nothing but hurt the Mexican economy. Negative Effects
on the Mexican Economy Mexico
Agricultural trade and investment plays an important role in U.S.-Mexico economic relations, even with the
uneven size of the two economies. In 1998, agricultural exports from the United States to Mexico totaled
about $6 billion, while agricultural exports from Mexico to the United States totaled about $4.7 billion. For
the United States, this represented about 12 percent of agricultural exports while for Mexico, it
represented more than 60 percent of agricultural exports. Agriculture in Mexico and in the U.S.
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more arable land than Mexico. Only 12 percent (230 thousand square kilometers) of
Mexico is arable while 19 percent (1,800 thousand square kilometers) of U.S. land is arable.
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using the real exchange rate index for 1990. For the case of total agricultural exports and imports the
period we considered was from January 1980 to August 2002. Due to data restrictions, the period
As with
price tendencies, our results show that there is a contrast between
agricultural exports and imports: whereas, as expected, the former
have experienced structural change, imports have not. In particular,
considered for specific crops or groups of crops was from January 1991 to August 2002.
agricultural total exports were subject to structural change in the last month of 1994, and the same was
true for tomatoes, fresh vegetables, melon and watermelon, and other fresh fruits (structural change in
Mexico exports of these commodities happen, respectively, in December, 1994, November 1994,
trends of the agricultural trade of Mexico are similar to those expressed by the Economic Research Service
of the US Department of Agriculture, ERS: 1999 and 2000).
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6.2 below).
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US Agriculture Impact
That devastates US agriculture by raising labor and wage
costs and decreasing competition.
J. Edward Taylor and Diane Charlton, March 8 2013, Why are
Mexicans leaving farm work, and what does this mean for US farmers?;
Edward Taylor is Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics and
Director of the Center on Rural Economies of the Americas and Pacific Rim
(REAP) at the University of California, Davis, where he teaches courses on
international development economics and econometric methods; Diane
Charlton is a PhD student in Agricultural and Resource Economics at the
University of California, Davis; Oxford University Press;
http://blog.oup.com/2013/03/mexicans-farm-work-united-states/, KTG
The received wisdom in development economics is that the domestic supply of agricultural labor starts out being
labor to farm jobs, agricultural wages must rise apace with nonagricultural wages. This is all the more true if non-farm jobs
bring non-pecuniary benefits compared to farm jobs and/or workers associate farm jobs with drudgery. Tighter border
enforcement and drug-related violence along the border may deter migration, but our analysis suggests that for US
agriculture their main effect is largely secondary, reinforcing a negative trend in rural Mexicans willingness to do
sector while labor demand in the farm sector remained steady and commodity prices rose. If unemployed workers in the
non-farm sector sought jobs on US farms during the recession, then one might expect the supply of agricultural labor to
increase. Data show that some immigrants did shift from non-farm to farm work after the recession, but more shifted from
wish to retain an agricultural sector in order to maximize its welfare, or economic well-being. Given such motives,
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. Therefore, it is important to establish whether the rate of farmland loss is affected by the level of agricultural activity within an area.
. The critical mass concept is based on the idea that economies of scale exist in both input and output businesses and services that are essential to agriculture.
for inputs,
. Similarly,
. 3 Changes in
farmers comparative advantage and their net revenues alter the relative returns of exiting farming.
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning nuclear threats and other
the West: developing countries often use limited arable land to expand cities to house their growing
food over the next 50 years, we in the United States will have to grow roughly three times more food on
the land we have. Thats a tall order. My farm in Marion County, Indiana, for example, yields on average
8.3 to 8.6 tonnes of corn per hectare typical for a farm in central Indiana. To triple our production by
2050, we will have to produce an annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare. Can we possibly boost output
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that much? Well, its been done before. Advances in the use of fertilizer and water, improved machinery
and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold increase in yields since 1935 on our farm
back then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3 tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen similar increases.
But of course there is no guarantee that we can achieve those results again. Given the urgency of
expanding food production to meet world demand, we must invest much more in scientific
research and target that money toward projects that promise to have significant national
and global impact. For the United States, that will mean a major shift in the way we conduct and
fund agricultural science. Fundamental research will generate the innovations that will be
necessary to feed the world. The United States can take a leading
position in a productivity revolution. And our success at increasing
food production may play a decisive humanitarian role in the survival of
billions of people and the health of our planet .
A2 Japan Relations
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Non-Unique
Relations improving now Okinawa proves
Fackler 4/6/13 (Martin Fackler, Tokyo bureau chief of New York Times,
foreign
correspondent covering business and economics for the Tokyo bureau, B.A. in Asian Studies, April 6, 2013.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/06/world/asia/us-and-japan-reach-deal-onreturning-okinawa-land.html?_r=0), KTG
TOKYO -- The United States and Japan agreed Friday on a new timetable
for the return to Japan of a Marine airfield and other military bases
on Okinawa, moving to solve a long-festering issue that has
bedeviled America's ties with its largest Asian ally. By agreeing to a clear
timetable for the return of 2,500 acres, both nations are hoping to entice Okinawans to drop their
opposition to the air base, which Washington and Tokyo want to move to another part of the island but
which many Okinawans want to move off the island. Fierce local opposition has kept Japan from being able
to follow through on a deal originally made in 1996 to allow the base and its noisy aircraft to be relocated
to a less populated area of the island. Japan's hawkish new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has been trying to
many
Japanese to support strengthening the alliance with the United
States, Japan's longtime protector. The deal on Friday could help Mr. Abe politically, by making clear
revive the long-stalled deal at a time of increasing tensions with China that have led
what Okinawans stand to gain by agreeing to keep the base. It could also help the Obama administration
if it finally leads to the end of an impasse that has left the future of the important air base in limbo, and
that has undermined the Obama administration's strategic ''pivot'' to Asia. Announcing the new
agreement in a room filled with American and Japanese flags, Mr. Abe called it a significant step toward
reducing the huge American military presence on Okinawa, a legacy of the United States' occupation of
that tropical island after World War II. The base relocation is the centerpiece of a broader deal to eventually
move some 9,000 Marines to bases in Guam, Hawaii and Australia. ''We are able to make progress in
reducing Okinawa's burden in a visible manner,'' Mr. Abe said, joined by a dozen American and Japanese
officials. ''I am extremely glad that everybody could sit down together today and reach a conclusion on this
intractable issue.'' Friday's agreement tries to restart that plan by setting a target date of returning the
Futenma base, in the center of the city of Ginowan, by as early as 2022, provided the replacement air base
is operational. It also lays out a timetable for handing over five other American bases also in the crowded
southern half of the island by the late 2020s. Under the timetable, the first parcel -- an access road and
surrounding land totaling 2.5 acres -- would be turned over to Japan this year. In a bid to increase
transparency and accountability, the new timetable also includes flowcharts outlining which government
agencies in both countries need to take what steps for the land to be returned on schedule. American and
Japanese officials said this was to prevent the deal from getting bogged down in murky bureaucratic
allies, as well as rivals, that the United States has the willpower to maintain its security presence despite
its budget difficulties and fatigue from wars in the Middle East. ''This sends a clear signal to the region
that we are committed to making hard choices to keep our force posture in Okinawa,'' said Mark Lippert,
assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs, who visited Tokyo to complete the agreement.
For Mr. Abe, restarting the relocation plan would fulfill a campaign
pledge to improve ties with the United States as his nation faces a growing
challenge from China over disputed islands near Okinawa. Becoming a fuller military partner of the United
States has been a centerpiece of the prime minister's bid to reverse his nation's declining stature in the
region after years of economic stagnation and its relative eclipse by China's rise. However, he is also
taking a political risk on an agreement that may fail to appease Okinawans' anger over what they see as
an unfairly onerous American base presence. The Abe government has been trying to whittle away at
Okinawans' opposition with offers of generous financial aid and other efforts to court the island's governor,
Hirokazu Nakaima, a base opponent who is a member of Mr. Abe's conservative governing party. In a sign
the government's tactics may be working, Mr. Nakaima offered uncharacteristic words of praise Friday,
though he warned that the central government still had to win over other local leaders. ''I think it is
extremely good that the government is buckling down to deal in concrete terms with the return of bases,''
Mr. Nakaima told reporters in Naha, the Okinawan capital. ''But it is hard to evaluate the plan until I have
had a chance to consult with mayors of the affected communities.'' One sticking point might be the
timetable for moving the base, which is now pushed back another nine years. Under an earlier version of
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the deal in 2006, it would have been relocated next year. The original agreement to move the base was
reached in 1996 after the gang rape of an Okinawan schoolgirl by American servicemen.
(http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/lnacui2api/results/
docview/docview.do?
docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T17425022451&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&s
tartDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T17425022455&cisb=22_T17425022454&tr
eeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=156289&docNo=2), KTG
The United States and Japan yesterday in Tokyo held their first
meeting of the Comprehensive Dialogue on Space, according to a Defense
Department statement. DoD said the convening of this first Dialogue ensures a wholeof-government approach to space issues and space cooperation relevant
to a wide range of interests, including resource and disaster management, environmental
monitoring, technology development, scientific discovery, national and international security and economic
growth. The two nations at the meeting exchanged information on respective space policies, including
Japan's newly formed Basic Plan on Space Policy. The United States and Japan also discussed further
collaboration in positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services from the U.S. Global Positioning System
(GPS) and the Japanese Quasi-Zenith Satellite U.S., HJSystem (QZSS) as well as earth observation, data
collaboration in the use of space for Maritime Domain Awareness. Both nations agreed to hold the second
Dialogue meeting in Washington in early 2014.
The 17 January 2013 edition of CCTV-4 "Focus Today" (Jin Ri Guan Zhu), a 30-minute current affairs
program broadcast daily at 1330-1400 gmt, features a discussion on United States and Japan revising their
guidelines for bilateral defence cooperation. The program is hosted by Gang Qiang and attended by CCTV
contributing commentators Yang Bojiang, researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, and Yin Zhuo, CCTV contributing commentator and military expert. The host begins the
discussions on enabling Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defence. The program then plays a
video clip about the topic. Yin Zhuo says that Japan deliberately bundles up its objective of expanding its
defence boundaries with the United States combat requirements because the key to expanding GSDF roles
lies with the United States. Yin adds that "the
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United States is sending a message that it is the ultimate decision maker on whether
to go to war and that Japan's role is only to complement the United States ."
Yin adds that Japan must realize that China is a very important market for the United States and Japan's
economy cannot compare with China. Commenting on the relationship between revising US-Japan
bilateral defence cooperation guidelines and enabling Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defence,
Yang Bojiang says that "after the war it is a common Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) trick to use external
pressures to promote change in domestic defense policies." Yang adds that the rise of China provided a
common need for the United States and Japan to target China.
Noda, who came to power in September and is Japan's sixth prime minister in six years, faces huge
challenges in reviving a long-slumbering economy and helping his nation recover from the worst nuclear
crisis since Chernobyl. Noda later was toasted at a gala dinner by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who
said that Americans were inspired by Japan's response to last year's tsunami devastation. "Japan has
remained an indispensable world leader even in the face of unthinkable tragedy," Clinton said. Obama
praised Noda and the Japanese people for their recovery after the
disasters. His Oval Office meeting and working lunch with Obama, as
well as the news conference showed that the two sides are
determined to show that US-Japan ties are as close as ever. The US
alliance with Japan, the world's third-largest economy, is at the core of Obama's
expanded engagement in Asia a diplomatic thrust motivated in part by a desire to
also
counter the growing economic and military clout of strategic rival China. t-2.000Their meeting takes place
during a delicate time in US-China relations, as the two world powers reportedly negotiate an asylum deal
for a blind Chinese legal activist who escaped from house arrest. Activists say he is under the protection of
US diplomats in Beijing, but Obama would not comment on the diplomatically sensitive case during the
news conference. He did add, however, that the issue of human rights is a recurrent one in US meetings
with China. "It is our belief that not only is that the right thing to do because it comports with our
principles and our belief in freedom and human rights, but also because we actually think China will be
50,000 troops in Japan, and both sides never tire of saying that their defence cooperation underpins
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forces more widely in the Asia-Pacific as part of a rebalancing of US defence priorities after a decade of war
Congress. Noda is the first Japanese leader to be hosted at the White House since his Democratic Party of
Japan, which had an initially awkward relationship with Washington, came to power in the autumn of 2009.
The party had at first favoured a foreign policy more independent of the United States. Noda is seen in
Washington as capable and practical. The Obama administration hopes he can weather his political
problems and stick around longer than his immediate predecessors. His support in polls has dwindled to
below 30 per cent as he pushes an unpopular rise in a consumption tax to tackle Japan's vast national debt
and looming social security crisis to cope with the nation's ageing population. No breakthroughs on trade
were anticipated at the summit. Obama said both sides would continue discussions about Japan's interest
in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a pact under negotiation by nine nations and a key plank in US trade
strategy to crank up its exports to support America's fragile recovery after the global slowdown. With
Japanese farmers protesting that the trade deal would destroy their livelihoods, a joint statement between
Obama and Noda said only that they "continue to advance our ongoing bilateral consultations" on the
pact. While Noda is believed to be personally supportive of declaring Japan's intent to join the talks, he
faces opposition at home, even within his own party. The pact could demand an assault on the heavy
subsidies enjoyed by Japan's farmers.
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North Korea
Increasing US-Japan Relations threatens North Korea
BBC Worldwide Monitoring September 28, 2012 (North Korean party organ
denounces US-Japan plans "to tighten military nexus"
http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/lnacui2api/results/d
ocview/docview.do?
docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T17425022451&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&s
tartDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T17425022455&cisb=22_T17425022454&tr
eeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=10, KTG
Text of report in English by state-run North Korean news agency KCNA website Pyongyang, September 28:
Tension remains high on the Korean Peninsula and the situation has
not been improved in the Asia-Pacific region entirely because the
U.S. and Japanese reactionaries are keen to tighten their political
and military nexus, says Nodong Sinmun Friday [28 September] in a bylined article. The article
goes on: The U.S. president said at a recent press conference that "the U.S.-Japan alliance is a cornerstone
for ensuring peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region." The U.S. secretary of Defence blustered "the
U.S.-Japan alliance has been a foundation of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region for decades."
Timed to coincide with these outbursts, the Japanese authorities including the prime minister cried out for
steadily preserving the U.S.-Japan "security pact" for "stability" in the region. Lurking behind their reckless
remarks are black-hearted intentions of the U.S. and Japan to contain and stamp out the progressive forces
in the region and realize their scenarios for hegemony and reinvasion. The tightened alliance between the
U.S. and Japan means beefing up their aggressor forces. The U.S. is busy amassing huge forces in its
strongholds of military and strategic importance and major areas rich in resources under the signboard of
their primary task for carrying out their Asia-Pacific strategy to keep South Korea as a nuclear outpost and
contain the DPRK [North Korea] by using it as a springboard. Hence ,
it
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views of American leadership. Success would strengthen the NPT, reaffirm the antinuclear norm, and
restore faith in US leadership in the region. If the deal unfolds as I anticipate, encompassing security,
political, economic and energy components, then it would reintegrate North Korea into the community of
Northeast Asian nations and beyond, and could ease the deprivation of the North Korean people. The
mechanism created to confirm North Korean nuclear disarmament could be used for other military threats
or, as I have proposed, the creation of a regional facility to dispose of the tens of thousands of tonnes of
nuclear waste building up throughout East Asia.
certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may
seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major,
medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global
economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's
(1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that
interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view
of future trade relations. However,
particularly for difficult [end page 213] to replace items such as energy resources,
the likelihood of
terrorism
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Keerthi Gondi
(Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004),
crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves
This observation is not contradictory to other perspectives that
link economic interdependence with a decrease in the likelihood of external
conflict, such as those mentioned in the first paragraph of this chapter. [end page 214] Those
studies tend to focus on dyadic interdependence instead of global interdependence and do not
more attention.
specifically consider
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
economic crises. As
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China
Increasing US-Japan Relations lead to China War
BBC Worldwide Monitoring July 26, 2012 (Chinese TV show discusses US
deployment of military aircraft in Japan
http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/lnacui2api/results/d
ocview/docview.do?
docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T17425022451&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&s
tartDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T17425022455&cisb=22_T17425022454&tr
eeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=13), KTG
The 25 July 2012 edition of CCTV-4 "Focus Today" [Jin Ri Guan Zhu], a 30-minute current affairs programme
broadcast daily at 1330-1400 GMT, features a discussion on the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands. The
programme is hosted by Gang Qiang and attended by CCTV contributing commentators, Yin Zhuo and Luo
Yuan. The host begins the programme by briefly commenting on Japan's plan to nationalize the Diaoyu
(Senkaku) Islands. The programme then plays a video clip featuring the news. After viewing the video clip,
the host and commentators discuss the US State Department official's statement that the Diaoyu
(Senkaku) Islands fall within the scope of Article 5 of the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and
Security. Yin Zhuo says that the United States maintains a level of ambiguity on the issue regarding the
Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands. Yin says that the United States only recognizes Japan's administrative control
over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands and holds the position that the sovereignty issue must be sorted out
that Japan does not have sovereignty over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands and Okinawa and therefore that it
is not legitimate for the United States and Japan to include both areas under the US-Japan security treaty.
Luo Yuan also agrees with Yin's argument and says that legally and historically Japan does not have
sovereignty over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands and Okinawa. Thus, they should not be included under the
US-Japan security treaty, Luo argues. Luo then says that the Treaty of San Francisco is illegal since China
was not a participant. Luo also stresses that Okinawa is not part of Japan given the historical fact that it
used to be a tributary state to China. Yin then criticizes Japanese politicians of both ruling and opposition
parties for using the dispute over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands to increase their political gains during an
election year. During the rest of the programme, the host and commentators also discuss the US
deployment of a squadron of F-22 jet fighters to Okinawa and the upcoming release of Japan's 2012
is trying to scare the Japanese people and convince them of the necessity of beefing up the Japan SelfDefense Forces.
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Alt Causes
US-led efforts to include Japan in Trans Pacific Partnership
strengthen relations
Washington Post 2013 (The Washington Post 3/17/2013 Partners with
Japan
http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/hottopics/lnacadem
ic/), KTG
THERE WAS a time, a couple of decades ago, when the trade relationship between the United States and
Japan was one of the hottest policy issues in Washington. The rise of China, coupled with Japan's two
decades of economic stagnation, eclipsed concerns - overblown in hindsight - about this country's chronic
trade deficit with Japan. Now,
agenda, and it's critical for both countries and for the world that Americans avoid the simplistic and
emotional arguments that marred past debates. On Friday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
announced that Japan will join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
free-trade talks, a U.S.-led effort to bind a dozen Pacific Rim nations in a tariff-slashing
pact that will boost efficiency and growth across a region that, including Japan, accounts for 40 percent of
the world's economic output. Mr. Abe did so at considerable political risk, because the prospect of
liberalized imports frightens Japan's farmers and other entrenched interest groups. Mr. Abe recognizes that
greater international competition could spur much-needed restructuring of Japan's domestic economy,
which, along with monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus, is one of the new prime minister's three policy
"arrows."
some of the same voices that often oppose free trade are already raising red flags. On Thursday, eight
senators and 35 members of the House, all Democrats, sent President Obama a letter complaining about
U.S. carmakers' historical lack of access to Japan's auto market, suggesting that, with a year-end deadline
for completing the talks, it's too late to resolve "these long-standing, economically harmful practices." But
the point of free trade is to enable each country to maximize its comparative advantages, not to guarantee
equal flows of every good in each direction. Actually, the potential opening of Japan's agricultural and
other markets to U.S. goods under TPP could offset deficits that might persist in the auto market. The twin
goals of shoring up Asian allies and reducing our trade deficit would also be served by maximizing U.S.
natural gas exports - especially to Japan, which is eager for stable new energy supplies to replace lost
nuclear generating capacity. Again, some in Congress object, on the protectionist grounds that exports
would raise the price of gas for U.S. users, both industrial and residential. And, once again, Economics 101
argues for the freest possible trade. Robust foreign demand for U.S. gas will promote greater production
over the long run, and the additional supply will help moderate prices at home and abroad. Fortunately,
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Keerthi Gondi
prime minister, including the current premier Shinzo Abe, who also held the post in 2006- 2007. His
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in a landslide election in December 2012. Japans
leaders face daunting tasks: an increasingly assertive China, a weak economy, and rebuilding from the
devastating March 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster. In recent years, opposition control of
one chamber of parliament has paralyzed policymaking in Tokyo and made U.S.-Japan relations difficult to
manage despite overall shared national interests. Abe is unlikely to pursue controversial initiatives before
the next national elections, for the Upper House of parliament (called the Diet) in July 2013. Perhaps most
significantly, the United States could become directly involved in a military conflict between Japan and
China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islets in the East China Sea. Comments and actions on controversial
historical issues by Prime Minister Abe and his cabinet have raised concern that Tokyo could upset
regional relations in ways that hurt U.S. interests. Abe is known as a strong nationalist. Abes approach
to issues like the so-called comfort women sex slaves from the World War II era, history textbooks,
visits to the Yasukuni Shrine that honors Japans war dead, and statements on a territorial dispute with
marines on Okinawa. Washington and Tokyo have agreed to relocate several thousand marines from
Okinawa to Guam and other locations in the region, but the two governments have been unable to make
tangible progress on implementing a 2006 agreement to relocate the controversial Futenma Marine
Corps Air Station to a less densely populated location on Okinawa. In addition, the U.S. Congress has
restricted funding for the realignment because of concerns and uncertainty about the cost of the
Japan is one of the United States most important
economic partners. Outside of North America, it is the United
States second-largest export market and second-largest source of
imports. Japanese firms are the United States second-largest
source of foreign direct investment, and Japanese investors are the
second-largest foreign holders of U.S. treasuries. In April 2013, the United
realignment plans.
States and the 10 other countries participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement
(FTA) negotiations completed discussions with Japan and invited Tokyo to join the talks. Accordingly, the
Obama Administration notified Congress of its intent to launch negotiations no earlier than 90 calendar
days hence. Japans membership in the TPP, if an agreement is reached, would constitute a de facto U.S. Japan FTA. Congress must approve implementing legislation if the TPP is to apply to the United States.
Japans participation in the talks could enhance the credibility and viability of the TPP, which is a core
component of Administration efforts to rebalance U.S. foreign policy priorities.
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A2 TPP
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Defense
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1NC Defense
Not coming this yearmultiple warrants.
Tracy Watkins, May 21 2013, Trans-Pacific Partnership deal unlikely this
year http://www.truthabouttrade.org/2013/05/21/trans-pacific-partnershipdeal-unlikely-this-year/, KTG
A heavyweight lineup of former United States trade representatives
have delivered a gloomy prognosis on the likelihood of the
controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal being wrapped up this year. US
President Barack Obama has signalled he wants a deal this year but
a New Zealand-US gathering in Washington today heard that was
unlikely. Im optimistic it will be done Im not optimistic it will be done this year, former USTR
Carla Hills told about 275 delegates at the US-New Zealand partnership forum. That view was shared by
US trade representatives Charlene Barshefsky, William Brock, Mickey Cantor, Susan Schwab and Clayton
Yeutter. The TPP aims to stitch together a free-trade agreement between the US and a number of Asia
views about whether its presence will slow the negotiations. But the panel of USTRs said that without
Japan the TPP may never have been done. Yeutter said he was not sure the deal would have got through
the US Congress without Japan on board because the TPP was too small without them. But he agreed that
everyone was being too optimistic about the deal being done this
year. I dont think its a prayer it will get done this year, he said. I dont think they
would have gotten it done this year even if Japan had not come in.
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Keerthi Gondi
this proposal is
basically being written by lobbyists in legacy industries, and they are using
past need to adapt to new technologies and approaches or get out of the way. But
it to limit their exposure to competition in the marketplace. Here are a few of the most problematic
rejected last year by Congress. SOPA would give a competitive advantage to the film industry and other
blocking regulations and limiting deployment of smart grid and other infrastructure.
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Keerthi Gondi
Trade policy affects employment rates, wage levels, the availability of capital, environmental conditions,
over other countries, or seeking to dismantle tariffs that prevented fair and open competition. Now the
negotiations are about dominant industries seeking to prevent competition rather than encourage it. The
negotiations are about dominant global-scale industries seeking to undercut government efforts to
regulate them in the public interest.
pact" anymore.
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2NC
TPP allows corporations to sue governmentsshifts
policies to favor corporations.
David Brodwin, April 19 2013, Obama's Pacific Trade Deal Is No Deal At
Environment DA
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1NC
TPP conjoins with ASEAN to destroy the environmentthe
region is a third of the worlds surface and is critical to
global biodiversity.
Arnie Saiki, March 14 2013, TPP V. ASEAN: THE PIVOT AND THE ISLAND
ROWS Coordinator of Moana Nui. (organization against American Pacific
Economic Cooperation) Director of Imipono Projects (to preserve the
statehood of Hawaii),
http://www.inmotionmagazine.com/global/a_saiki_tpp_asean.html, KTG
Despite the proliferation of an alphabet soup of regional economic
integrations, both ASEAN +3/6 and the Trans-Pacific Partnership have
been the dominant regional agreements working to conclude this
year or next. This geo-political football being played out for Asian and Pacific markets and resources are being
competed for primarily between the US and China, and this competition impacts not only rules for investment and trade,
but also human rights, militarization, access to sea-lanes, resource extraction, fisheries, migrant labor, currency and
Extinction
Science Daily 11 (ScienceDaily, online science newsletter, 8/11/12
Biodiversity Key to Earths Life-Support Functions in a Changing World <
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm>)
biological diversity of organisms on Earth is not just something we enjoy
when taking a walk through a blossoming meadow in spring; it is also the
basis for countless products and services provided by nature, including food,
building materials, and medicines as well as the self-purifying qualities of
water and protection against erosion. These so-called ecosystem services
are what makes Earth inhabitable for humans. They are based on ecological
The
processes, such as photosynthesis, the production of biomass, or nutrient cycles. Since biodiversity is on
the decline, both on a global and a local scale, researchers are asking the question as to what role the
diversity of organisms plays in maintaining these ecological processes and thus in providing the
ecosystem's vital products and services. In an international research group led by Prof. Dr. Michel Loreau
from Canada, ecologists from ten different universities and research institutes, including Prof. Dr. Michael
Scherer-Lorenzen from the University of Freiburg, compiled findings from numerous biodiversity
experiments and reanalyzed them. These experiments simulated the loss of plant species and attempted
to determine the consequences for the functioning of ecosystems, most of them coming to the conclusion
that a higher level of biodiversity is accompanied by an increase in ecosystem processes. However, the
findings were always only valid for a certain combination of environmental conditions present at the
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Keerthi Gondi
locations at which the experiments were conducted and for a limited range of ecosystem processes. In a
study published in the current issue of the journal
to which the positive effects of diversity still apply under changing environmental conditions and when a
multitude of processes are taken into account. They found that 84 percent of the 147 plant species
included in the experiments promoted ecological processes in at least one case. The more years, locations,
ecosystem processes, and scenarios of global change -- such as global warming or land use intensity -- the
experiments took into account, the more plant species were necessary to guarantee the functioning of the
ecosystems. Moreover, other species were always necessary to keep the ecosystem processes running
more
biodiversity is necessary to keep ecosystems functioning in a world that is
changing ever faster. The protection of diversity is thus a crucial factor
in maintaining Earth's life-support functions.
under the different combinations of influencing factors. These findings indicate that much
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Exporting this
volume of US LNG would in turn mean increased fracking, the dirty
and violent process that dislodges gas deposits from shale rock
formations. It would also likely cause an increase in natural gas and electricity pricesup to three times their current price by some estimates
applications to export approximately 45% of the total U.S. domestic gas production. Environmental impacts of natural gas exports
impacting consumers, manufacturers, and workers, while increasing the use of dirty coal power.
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Keerthi Gondi
across private property and public land, further fragmenting landscapes and increasing pollution. Then
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Several plant
species, unique in the world, are limited to only a small area of one
mountain and are represented by only a few specimens. The rich and
diverse genetic heritage is of such scientific importance that Myers ,
1988, lists New Caledonia as one of the 10 hot spots in the world where the primary
lands for 80 million years. Seventy six percent of the flora and fauna evolved on the island.
forest is at once exceptional and endangered. New Caledonia has the most diverse bird life in the Southwest Pacific, with
68 species. Twenty-two species of birds (32%) and thirty sub-species, are found only in the Territory. The decline of the
biodiversity of the Pacific islands began with the arrival of the first humans. Archaeological investigations discovered an
even more phenomenal bird fauna existed in New Caledonia before the 18th Century, including a giant flightless bird, like
the famous (and also extinct) New Zealand Moa. The extinction of these birds coincides with the arrival of the Melanesians
about 900 years ago, and was likely caused by fire, slash and burn agriculture, and hunting. The arrival of European
settlers towards the end of the last Century greatly accelerated the loss of biodiversity. A combination of logging, mining
and natural drought conditions resulted in massive fires that destroyed a majority of the natural habitats on the southern
part of the island. This pattern was repeated throughout the Pacific. In the Marquesas, for example, the Polynesian
settlers exterminated eight of twenty sea birds, including shearwaters, petrels, and boobies. Fourteen of the 16 land birds,
primarily flightless rails, pigeons, doves, parrots and songbirds became extinct. On Easter Island, the early settlers
denuded the entire island of trees and exterminated 22 species of sea birds and all six species of land birds. The Maori
people arrived in New Zealand about 900 years ago and by the time the Europeans arrived in mass in the 1840s, most of
the countrys unique avifauna was extinct and nearly 30% of the native forests were cleared. The European invasion of
New Zealand resulted in the most extensive and complete biotransformation of any large island in the Pacific. This was a
deliberate effort of "Acclimatisation Committees" to make New Zealand more like "home" and included removal of all but
20% of the native forests, filling all but 10% of the wetlands, and importation of over 3198 species of plants and animals.
Australians were less successful than the New Zealanders in the biological transformation of their country, largely because
of the sheer size of the landmass and the unsuitability of many areas to British plants and animals. In turn, the Australian
Endemic
species can be lost in the space of a few months through the
destruction of critical habitat or through the introduction of
predator, insect pests and diseases. The loss of any habitat on a high
island is likely to mean the extinction of species of plants or animals.
and New Zealanders imported their favourite plants and animals into many Pacific island countries.
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climatic impacts would have almost immediate and tangible impacts on households and incomes. In
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Let me therefore briefly elaborate on the first of these two aspects: the growing role of the Asia-Pacific
Consider
first demography. The Asia-Pacific region is home to about half of
the worlds population. China and India, with a combined population of 2.4 billion, are
evidently two population giants. But we all know very well that the region
includes other countries with large numbers of consumers and
investors, such as Indonesia (with a population of over 200 million) or the
Philippines and Vietnam, whose populations (around 90 million) are comparable to that of
Germany. The ASEAN countries as a whole represent more than 500
million inhabitants. The largest cities in the world can also be found
in the Asia-Pacific region. At present, nine of the twenty largest
metropolitan areas are located in this region. And some of these cities have
region in the global economy, which is evident in both demographic and economic terms.
grown considerably in size in recent years as a result of profound economic transformations and massive
emerging Asia alone, perhaps the most dynamic economic area of the world, reached around 40% last
year. Admittedly, the Asia-Pacific region as a whole remains diverse in terms of standards of living. Mature
economies, such as Australia or Japan, with GDP per capita of, respectively, USD 42,000 and USD 34,000 in
instance, where people have reaped the benefits of their countrys rapid development through a doubling
of GDP per capita since the turn of the millennium, to about USD 2,400 in 2007. The remarkable pace of
the potential to take advantage of the new opportunities that this rapid development creates. In 2006,
emerging Asia accounted for about 10% of euro area exports and 18% of its imports. It also accounted for
Importantly, the world
economy might be better able to rely on the dynamism of the AsiaPacific region should growth in other regions lose some momentum.
This is particularly important at the current juncture. However, it is equally
important not to forget one caveat. We are in a universe of interdependence. If
one economy slows down, it has an influence on all other economies .
Since we are all interdependent, the key question is how, and to what extent, a possible slowing down in
some mature economies might be partially offset by stronger growth in other regions, notably in emerging
Asia, also bearing in mind differences in cycles and drivers of growth.
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Keerthi Gondi
certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may
seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major,
medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global
economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's
(1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that
interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view
of future trade relations. However,
particularly for difficult [end page 213] to replace items such as energy resources,
in
the likelihood of
terrorism
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Keerthi Gondi
flag' effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995). and Blomberg, Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting
evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997),
Miller (1999), and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics
are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are
generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000)
crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves
specifically consider
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
economic crises. As
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No War
No North Korea warUS power, South Korean stability,
and no initial strike.
Wesley Clark, CNN, April 8, 2013, An accident, then war with North
Korea? http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/05/opinion/clark-north-korea/?
hpt=po_c2, KTG
Again and again, North Korea has defied international accords, laws and
common sense, creating and exporting long-range missiles, building nuclear capabilities and engaging in
combined U.S.-South Korean forces would destroy North Korea should war begin.
Joshua Keating over at Foreign Policy offered a thoughtful commentary on Rob Montzs North Korea
documentary, Juche Strong, after last Thursdays screening at Cato. Keating contended that the film,
which suggests that pervasive regime propaganda has created at least some degree of legitimacy in the
minds of many North Koreans, makes a case that the United States needs to maintain its current military
No doubt, it
Keating put it. But even popular determination and commitmentso far untested in an external crisisgo
only so far.
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balance. It doesnt much matter if Pyongyang is weak or strong so long as South Korea and Japan are
stronger.
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Resolution against North Korea should be forthcoming. In addition, China had previously threatened to reduce its
primarily important if North Korea plans someday to actually employ its nuclear weapons. Otherwise, why pay the cost of
sanctions and lost Chinese aid? And why has China been so reluctant to pressure North Korea after its missile test in
among North Koreans that Kim Jong-Un would introduce serious economic reforms to bring the country out of its economic
People
in North Korea still appear to be starving to death. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-Un has
failure, but reforms have not really happened. The food situation did not worsen in 2012, nor did it improve.
strengthened border security to prevent defections, seriously restricting an important escape valve. And he has carried
He has also
taken away many aspects of the military's power. These conditions
appear to be ripe for instability.
out aggressive purges throughout the North Korean leadership, especially among the military.
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Korea? http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/05/opinion/clark-north-korea/?
hpt=po_c2, KTG
The U.S. and South Korean deterrent remains strong -- in both rhetoric
and deployable, effective military power. But what about miscalculation?
Life in North Korea Korea tensions ramp up Can China solve North Korea crisis? North Korea
might test missiles Yes, it is always possible that Kim may doubt that the United States would
act, despite all the evidence to the contrary. Or, perhaps he miscalculates how far he can
push the South Koreans. It is possible that a North provocation could be so extreme that the
South would be compelled by its own domestic politics to respond militarily -- say a tit-for-tat ship-sinking.
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1NC
No South China Sea war---China wants peace.
Carlyle A. Thayer, May 13 2013, Why China and the US wont go to war over the South China
Sea; MA in S.E. Asian Studies from Yale and a PhD in International Relations from the Australian National
University, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales;
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-south-china-sea/,
KTG
For example, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, Commander of the US Pacific Command, recently stated, there has also been criticism that the Rebalance is a strategy of
containment. This is not the case it is a strategy of collaboration and cooperation. However, a review of past USChina military-to-military interaction indicates that an
agreement to jointly manage security in the South China Sea is unlikely because of continuing strategic mistrust between the two countries. This is also because the
a third scenario is more likely than the previous two: that China
and the United States will maintain a relationship of cooperation and
friction. In this scenario, both countries work separately to secure their
interests through multilateral institutions such as the East Asia
Summit, the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus and the Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum. But they also continue to engage each other on
currents of regionalism are growing stronger. As such,
points of mutual interest. The Pentagon has consistently sought to keep channels of communication open with China through three established bilateral mechanisms:
Defense Consultative Talks, the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. On the one hand, these multilateral
mechanisms reveal very little about USChina military relations. Military-to-military contacts between the two countries have gone through repeated cycles of cooperation
and suspension, meaning that it has not been possible to isolate purely military-to-military contacts from their political and strategic settings. On the other hand, the
channels have accomplished the following: continuing exchange visits by high-level defence officials; regular Defense Consultation Talks; continuing working-level
discussions under the MMCA; agreement on the 7-point consensus; and no serious naval incidents since the 2009 USNS Impeccable affair. They have also helped to
ensure continuing exchange visits by senior military officers; the initiation of a Strategic Security Dialogue as part of the ministerial-level Strategic & Economic Dialogue
process; agreement to hold meetings between coast guards; and agreement on a new working group to draft principles to establish a framework for military-to-military
could spill over and have a major negative impact on bilateral relations in general. But strategic mistrust will probably persist in the absence of greater transparency in
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Government; read IR at St. Antonys College (Univ. of Oxford), where he received his M.Phil. and D.Phil.
degrees; http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Bulletin_Cronin_TheWayForward.pdf
There is no single answer to the problems of the East and South China
Seas. Yet, there are reasons to be optimistic, especially because most
parties believe that war is remote and dispute management necessary.
Economically, the seas are at the crossroads of global commerce and
an increasingly vital source of both food and energy resources. Politically, cooperation in
these seas tests both the peace and prosperity of a rising Asia and
the Chinese narrative of its peace- ful rise. Strategically, the East and South China
Seas are the place where Chinese military modernization is most likely to directly chal- lenge Americas
long postwar dominance. In other words, the East and South China Seas are central to Asia-Pacific security.
not just the United States will need both wisdom and deft statecraft to manage these complicated and
play and give equal protection to the weak and strong alike.
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2NC
Extend Thayer 13conflict in the SCS wont happen. The
US has already taken containment steps and the PLA and
China arent willing to start conflict. China wants to
cooperate and will with international organizations and
the US. China-US relations check conflict.
Extend Cronon 13China embraces multilateralism and
the region is too important. China recognizes the
importance of SCS to commerce and the political
importance of hegemonic international relations. They
wouldnt start a war.
Both of these cards are from less than 3 months ago
prefer recency here when talking about a potential war in
a situation, which is changing daily.
ASEAN diplomacy checks conflicttheyre creating a Code
of Conduct.
Sanchita Basu Das, May 13 2012, ASEAN: A United Front to Tackle the South China Sea Issue,
Sanchita Basu Das is an ISEAS Fellow and Lead Researcher for Economic Affairs in the ASEAN Studies
Centre at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), Singapore. She is also the coordinator of the
Singapore APEC Study Centre at ISEAS, lead researcher for economic affairs at ASEAN Studies Centre and
ISEAS, has an MBA from National University of Singapore and MA from the Delhi School of Economics,
Institute of South-East Asian Studies, http://www.iseas.edu.sg/documents/publication/sbd13may12.pdf,
KTG
part in the discussion at this juncture. Some member-states argue that ASEAN must reach an internal consensus before
its inherent differences quietly and develop the code of conduct to correspond with international legal norms, such as the
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1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Though the dispute may not be resolved completely in the short term,
and agreed to consolidate them into one document.5 Four major areas of disagreement were identified: the geographic scope, restrictions on construction on occupied and
unoccupied features, military activities in waters adjacent to the Spratly islands, and whether or not fishermen found in disputed waters could be detained and arrested. A
formal ASEAN-China COC proved a bridge too far. In November 2002, ASEAN member states and China signed a non-binding political statement known as the Declaration
The
parties to the DOC reaffirmed that the adoption of a code of
conduct in the South China Sea would further promote peace and
stability in the region and agree to work, on the basis of consensus,
towards the eventual attainment of this objective.6 The DOC was stillborn. It took a further
on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). This document set out four trust and confidence building measures and five voluntary cooperative activities.
twenty-five months before senior officials reached agreement on the terms of reference for the ASEAN-China Joint Working Group (JWC) to implement the DOC.7 In August
2005, ASEAN tabled draft Guidelines to Implement the DOC at the first meeting of the JWC. Point two called for ASEAN consultations prior to meeting with China.8
China objected and repeated its long-held position that the relevant
parties should resolve sovereignty and jurisdictional disputes
bilaterally. This proved such a sticking point that another six years of intermittent discussions and twenty-one successive drafts were exchanged before final
agreement was reached. In July 2011, the Guidelines to Implement the DOC were adopted after ASEAN dropped its insistence on prior consultation and agreed instead to
promote dialogue and consultation among the parties. A new point was added to the Guidelines specifying that activities and projects carried out under the DOC should be
reported to the ASEAN-China Ministerial Meeting.9 All the other points in the 2011 Guidelines remained unchanged from the original ASEAN draft tabled in 2005. ASEAN
and Chinese senior officials commenced discussions on the implementation of the Guidelines. At a meeting held in Beijing from January 13-15, 2012, agreement was
reached to set up four expert committees on maritime scientific research, environmental protection, search and rescue, and transnational crime. These committees were
derived from the five cooperative activities mentioned in the 2002 DOC. Significantly no expert committee on safety of navigation and communication at sea was
established due to its contentious nature. The agreement on DOC Guidelines led to the revival of the long-standing proposal by the Philippines for a COC that was
January 2012, the Philippines circulated an informal working draft simply titled, Philippines Draft Code of Conduct. The document was eight pages in length and comprised
ten articles. In line with official Philippine foreign policy promoting the South China Sea as a Zone of Peace, Freedom, Friendship and Cooperation (ZOPFF/C), the draft COC
proposed a Joint Cooperation Area in the South China Sea (Article III), a Joint Permanent Working Committee to implement the ZOPFF/C (Article IV), the Application of Part
IX of the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea in the South China Sea (Article V),11 and Dispute Settlement Mechanisms (Article VI). The remaining articles
contained standard provisions such as principles (Article I), objectives (Article II), reservations (Article VII), signature and ratification (Article VIII), entry into force (Article IX)
and review and amendments to the code (Article X). In discussions held by ASEAN senior officials during the first quarter of 2012 it became apparent that ASEAN members
were divided on Articles III-VI in the Philippines draft. Some ASEAN members also shared reservations about being too prescriptive concerning dispute settlement
mechanisms.12 It was at this point that China changed tack and sought a seat at the ASEAN discussions. The timing of Chinas involvement with ASEAN in drafting a COC
quickly became a contentious issue within ASEAN. These tensions surfaced at the 20th ASEAN Summit held in Phnom Penh from April 3-4. Cambodia, the ASEAN Chair,
pushed for Chinas inclusion in ASEAN discussions. The Philippines and Vietnam objected strongly and a compromise was reached. ASEAN would proceed on its own to draft
a COC, while communication with China would take place through the ASEAN Chair at the same time.13 The ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting (SOM) Working Group on the
COC concluded its discussions on June 13, 2012 at its seventh meeting. According to an official statement, The meeting agreed to submit the draft ASEAN proposed key
elements of the regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea to the ASEAN SOM for consideration.14 The ASEAN SOM met in Phnom Penh from July 6-7 and forwarded
the agreed draft to the ASEAN foreign ministers for deliberation at their 45th AMM on July 9. At the end of the AMM formal discussions Kao Kim Hourn, Secretary of State in
the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters that the ASEAN foreign ministers had adopted the key elements of the COC and agreed to have the ASEAN
senior officials meet with the senior official from China to discuss the (code of conduct) from now on.15 According to the document ASEANs Proposed Elements of a
Regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, the original Philippine Working Draft was heavily pruned. Articles III-VI were dropped entirely. The ASEAN key elements
were reduced to a preamble and two articles. A comparison of the Philippine draft preamble with the agreed ASEAN preamble reveals that two items contained in the
former were dropped. The first was a reference to the principles and norms of international law applicable to maritime space, in particular the principles on the peaceful
uses and cooperative management of the oceans. The second and more sensitive reference that was deleted referred to the need to preserve the region from any form
of increased militarization and intimidation. Both preambles began by referencing the 1997 Joint Statement of the meeting of heads of government/state of ASEAN
members and China. Next, the Philippines inclusion of the 2003 declaration of the ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity was replaced with a
reference to the more recent 2006 Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership for Peace and Towards an Enhanced ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership. Both preambles
included a reference to the 2002 DOC and its commitment to develop a COC. Both preambles also referred to protection of the environment and biodiversity. The ASEAN
draft altered the formulation in the Philippine draft from advance a lasting and durable solution of disputes to read comprehensive and durable solution of disputes.16
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respect and adhere to the United Nations Charter, 1982 UNCLOS, Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, DOC and the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence.
However, five of the principles contained in the Philippine draft were deleted in their entirety: respect for freedom of navigation and over flight; the need to define, clarify
and segregate disputed areas from the non-disputed areas; full resolution of the territorial and jurisdictional disputes; refrain from undertaking activities that may disrupt
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A2 Senkaku Conflict
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1NC
Senkaku island disputes wont erupt into war---political
instability, China wont risk US involvement, and the
resources arent strong enough.
David A. Beitelman, September 2012, Senkaku Islands Dispute: Do Not Believe the Hype,
China and Japan Are Not About to Go to War Policy Mic; PhD student in Political Science at Dalhousie
University and a Doctoral Fellow at the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
He holds Masters degrees in American Studies and Political Science, and a BA (Hons) Specialization in
Political Science with a Major in American Studies, from the University of Western Ontario;
http://www.policymic.com/articles/14910/senkaku-islands-dispute-do-not-believe-the-hype-china-andjapan-are-not-about-to-go-to-war, KTG
The world is abuzz with the rising tensions between China and Japan
in the East China Sea, where the two are quarreling over the energyrich Senkaku Island chain (known as the Diaoyu Islands in China ).
Complicating the issue is a similar dispute between South Korea and Japan over another energy rich island chain in the
East Sea/Sea of Japan, known as Takeshima in Japan and Dokdo in South Korea. Add this to the already tense territorial
relationship between various states in the Asia-Pacific region which include the Philippines, Thailand, India, and Vietnam,
corruption by her husband, Bo Xilai, a high-ranking CCP official. There is also the bizarre case of the son of another highranking CCP official, Ling Jihua, who died after he crashed his Ferrari while naked and in the company of two women.
The CCP derives a great deal of its legitimacy from the countrys
impressive economic performance over the past 30 or so years. With the economy slowing and
the perception that the ruling party is corrupt, out of touch, and incompetent, while in the midst of a power transition, it
becomes easy to see why the CCP may benefit from ratcheting up nationalist sentiment, particularly against its long-time
scale multi-dimensional strategic realignment of military, economic, and political resources to the Asia-Pacific region that
least strongly influence its strategic calculus as it modernizes its military and becomes a more assertive regional and
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of those states involved. NATO taking out Libya could be done on the cheap; war between China and
Japan cannot. It is not for nothing that China has already stated it would not use force to resolve territorial issues in the
China and Japan may be flexing their muscles a bit, but both
know it is in their best interests to resolve differences through
negotiation, not war.
region.
The ongoing crisis over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands may be bringing Asia
to the cusp of war. Trefor Moss recently wrote that a Japan-China war over these disputed islands is very unlikely. That
could be right. Or it could be wrong. But even a very small chance of a Sino-Japanese war breaking out in 2013 is enough reason to work to try
to prevent it. What follows is a six-point plan to seek to deescalate the dispute in the short term. It is no doubt flawed and incomplete, but
such gravity. Transport your mind into that of the soldiers and sailors you are sending to their graves. Ask yourself, as the philosopher does,
what becomes of your humanity while half a pound of lead, sent from the distance of a hundred steps, pierces my body, and I die at twenty
years of age, in inexpressible torments, in the midst of five or six thousand dying men As an unnamed source put it, theres some 24-yearold kid in the Japanese Coast Guard who has a family and friends. At some point hes going to take a .50 caliber round over this. Always bear
are attempting to compel changes in each others behavior through military pressure to only vaguely communicate their demands in public.
By shrouding their key demands in ambiguity, and communicating them privately (or even tacitly), leaders are better able to comply with
demands without losing face in public. An excellent example is the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis,when a (then-secret) U.S.-Soviet
In Asia, where
the concept of face is particularly important, it is doubly important
that Chinese and Japanese leaders not back each other into a corner
by threatening one anothers political survival. 3. Respect red lines.
That means, above all, not firing the first shot. There are some fairly clear red lines : i.e.Chinese
missile swap deal had the U.S. pull missiles out of Turkey to allow the Soviets to withdraw gracefully from Cuba.
paramilitary or military forces landing on the disputed islands; Japanese planes shooting tracer bullets at their opponents; either side
this. Unless the aim of Japan or China is to launch a regional war, which is highly unlikely, then each party should be sensitive to the basic red
lines of the other. Since this dangerous cat-and-mouse game is being played in the waters and airspace around and over these disputed
isolated islets, it is crucial that civilian crisis managers on each side assert uncontested authority over their military subordinates moves.
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Keerthi Gondi
Senkakus based on faith in the coercive power of Chinese missiles is also dangerously simplistic. Neither party can predict the outcome of
5. Begin a strategy
of graduated reciprocity in tension reduction. At the height of the Cold War, psychologist
such a war. Any comments to the contrary are propaganda at best, delusional optimism at worst.
Charles E. Osgood proposed a strategy of graduated reciprocity in tensions reduction, or GRIT. As Walter Clemens puts it, the initiator begins
Interestingly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may have already sent such a first signal in a letter to Chinese authorities, hand-delivered by Japanese
envoy and coalition partner, Natsuo Yamaguchi. This was a risky move for Tokyo to make, since it may come under fire domestically as folding
early, but it was a demonstration of clear political courage to get out of a downward spiral of conflict. Tokyo, and the world, should now watch
for China to reciprocate this goodwill gesture with a concession of its own. In all likelihood, Chinese leaders will be constrained in their ability
to further escalate tensions on the heels of such a Japanese good faith outreach effort, since the image of China as a bullying aggressor would
efforts. But the mere presence of a third-party genuinely interested in the prevention of war as an end in itself can be immensely beneficial by
creating options which the disputants may not have heretofore considered possible. This final proposal should not be mistaken for starryeyed idealism in the capabilities of the world body. The UN has many flaws. But its primary purpose, and its most enduringly relevant one, as
Dag Hammarskjld made clear, was to prevent small disputes from engulfing the great powers in world war.
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2NC
Extend Beitelman 12he talks about reasons why
Senkaku conflict is insanely impossible. Political
instability and corruption within the CCP and Bo Xilai
prevents the military from taking credible action. The
economies are too tied to risk a war, and China wouldnt
risk US involvement because it would be devastating.
Finally, the Senkakus dont have enough resources to
start a conflict.
No Senkaku nuclear war
a) Too much economic interdependenceTHIS IS ONLY
TRUE OF THIS CERTAIN DISPUTE NOT EVIDENCE THAT
ECONOMIC GROWTH SOLVES WAR!
Sungtaue Park, 10/25/2012, Limits of the China-Japan Tension over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
International Affairs Review at GWU; Sungtae Park is a M.A. Security Policy Studies student at the George
Washington Universitys Elliott School of International Affairs. He has also written articles for CSIS (Center
for Strategic and International Studies) and Brandeis International Journal; http://www.iargwu.org/node/434, KTG
There is a growing fear among many Asia observers and pundits that
the on-going territorial dispute could become a spark for a
destructive, general war in Asia. The reality, however, is that there are several economic,
political, as well as logistical (in military terms) constraints that make a war highly unlikely. In
are also logistical reasons why a war over the Senkaku /Diaoyu
is unlikely. It is generally believed that neither China nor Japan at the
moment has the military capability to wage a full-scale conventional
Islands
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Keerthi Gondi
war against the other. If China and Japan were to fight a war, the
initial fighting would take place on water. The Chinese navy is mainly
oriented towards coastal defense and does not have effective naval
capabilities to project its power beyond the so-called first island
chain. The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are part of the first island chain, but the Chinese military would
have to stretch its naval capability to the limit in order to fight a war at that point. Even Chinas
on-going naval modernization is primarily for defensive purposes.
The Japanese navy, on the other hand, does have some capability to project its power, but it is
very limited. The Japanese military also does not have adequate ground forces to conduct fighting
on the Chinese mainland. Even if violence breaks out, such a conflict would be very
limited in scope and is highly unlikely that it would turn into a
general war or escalate to a nuclear conflict.
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1NC--Hegemony Turn
Senkaku conflict would end US hegemony and the asia
pivotexposes Americas weakest links.
Wendell Minnick, April 16 2013, Senkakus Could Be Undoing of Asia Pivot: Would U.S., Japan Go
To War With China Over Islands? Defense News,
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130416/DEFREG03/304160012/Senkakus-Could-Undoing-Asia-Pivot,
KTG
the East China Sea? China, which calls them the Diaoyu Islands, claims they were stolen from it after World
War II. Over the past two years, Beijing has taken aggressive actions to intimidate Japanese Coast Guard
by the lights of a bygone era of being the unilateral superhero, dive into a war with an economic
superpower that does not share Americas cost-benefit morality or its reciprocal military restraint?
University and received his PhD in political science from the University of
Chicago, "Unrest Assured: Why Unipolarity Is Not Peaceful" in January 2011,
International Security, Vol. 36, No. 3 (Winter 2011/12), pp. 940 from
www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00064/ak)
How well, then, does the argument that unipolar systems are peaceful account for the first two decades of
unipolarity since the end of the Cold War? Table 1 presents a list of great powers divided into three
periods: 1816 to 1945, multipolarity; 1946 to 1989, bipolarity; and since 1990, unipolarity. Table 2
Unipolarity is
the most conflict prone of all the systems, according to at least two
important criteria: the percentage of years that great powers spend
at war and the incidence of war involving great powers . In multipolarity, 18
percent of great power years were spent at war. In bipolarity, the ratio is 16 percent. In unipolarity,
presents summary data about the incidence of war during each of these periods.
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Keerthi Gondi
given that Wohlforth makes a structural argument: peace flows from the unipolar structure of international
analyses of the
international system are usually centered on interactions between
great powers. 50 As Waltz writes, The theory, like the story, of international politics is written in
terms of the great powers of an era. 51 In the sections that follow, however, I show that i n the case
of unipolarity, an investigation of its peacefulness must consider
potential causes of conflict beyond interactions between the most
important states in the system.
politics, not from any particular characteristic of the unipole. 49 Structural
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A2 Takeshima Conflict
FYI: Dodko/Takeshima islands are between Korea and Japan. South Korea calls
it Dodko. Japan calls it Takeshima. Since the Asia-Pacific war, theyve both
wanted it, so they dispute over it. The US is torn because both SK and Japan
are its allies. Bam. Fml, why do East Asian countries go ape-shit over these
small islands like seriously get a life
Theres not a lot of literature on this. I just made it under the slight possibility
you might hit something about it.
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Keerthi Gondi
1NC
History and politics makes tensions inevitable over
Takeshima
Terence Roehrig, December 2012, The United States and the Dokdo/Takeshima Dispute:
Caught between two allies Fellow at the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science
and International Affairs, professor at the US Naval War College in National Security Affairs and Director of
the Asia-Pacific Studies Group at the U.S. Naval War College, KTG
Finally, the United States can encourage both sides to not let this issue be linked to the overall health of
These are important efforts and it is crucial that the United States seek additional ways to calm these
waters in Asia.
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of the Korean Institute for National Unification (KINU) and a scholar whose conservative credentials are
impeccable suggested that perhaps Seoul could offer to reach an agreement to share the resources
surrounding Dokdo in return for Japan acknowledging ROK sovereignty over the islands and apologizing for
parties through negotiation. During a visit to Japan in October 2012, Deputy Secretary of State William
Burns elaborated stating: our position is not neutral with regard to the focus on dialogue and finding
diplomatic means to address these issues.
themselves.
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2NC
Alt Causeresolve requires diplomacy
Terence Roehrig, December 2012, The United States and the Dokdo/Takeshima Dispute:
Caught between two allies Fellow at the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science
and International Affairs, professor at the US Naval War College in National Security Affairs and Director of
the Asia-Pacific Studies Group at the U.S. Naval War College, KTG
trade between Japan and South Korea reached $107.9 billion in 2011, a 16.7 percent increase over the
previous year. Foreign direct investment between the two countries is also considerable. Seoul and Tokyo
Officials
from both countries indicated the deal had nothing to do with
politics and the island dispute, but is difficult to determine if these
issues were truly delinked. During the November 2012 ASEAN meeting, China, Japan, and
had been working on expanding a currency swap deal but that ended in October 2012.
South Korea announced the start of negotiations for a free trade agreement. Japanese and South Korean
finance ministers held their annual meeting in Seoul on November 24-25, a positive sign that dialogue on
Victoria Nuland declared: Both of these countries are strong, important, valued allies of the United States.
Its obviously not comfortable for us when they have a dispute between them. So our message to each of
them is the same: Work this out, work it out peacefully, work it out through consultations.
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impartial mediator to help craft a statement that both sides can accept in order to help finally settle or at
least depoliticize this issue. Someone like former President Bill Clinton or former National Security Advisor
Brent Scowcroft comes quickly to mind. Mediation is far preferable to exerting pressure on Japan and
South Korea for a solution and the United States could quietly offer to assist. Such a path avoids using
coercion on these two allies and would hopefully reduce the tension level while generating some type of
Consequently, Seouls response to calls for mediation is likely to produce the same answer as Japans
proposals to take the matter to the ICJ there is no dispute; Dokdo is Korean territory.
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A2 African Wars
No war and no escalation- Gettleman is wrong.
Strauss 13 (Scott, African Arguments researcher, Guardian African
Gettleman is right that warfare and political violence are changing on the continent, but he is wrong to portray
that change as one of brutal violence increasing out of control. In fact, as I
show in a recent piece in African Affairs, looked at since the end of the cold war, wars are not becoming more
frequent in sub-Saharan Africa. To the contrary: according to the Uppsala Armed Conflict Data Program, the
pre-eminent tracker of warfare worldwide, wars in the 2000s are substantially down from
their peak in the early 1990s. Even if one counts an uptick during the past two years, there were
about one-third fewer wars in sub-Saharan Africa in the period compared to the early-to-mid 1990s. Another
prevailing view is that sub-Saharan Africa is the most war-endemic region. Not so, especially if one looks at the continent's history since 1960.
Wars in sub-Saharan Africa (compared to other world regions) are not longer or more
frequent on a wars-per-country basis. Those distinctions effectively go to Asia, where between wars in
India, Afghanistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, among others, wars are more frequent and longer lasting. The pattern holds true for
extreme cases of mass killing, like Rwanda in 1994 and Darfur in the mid-2000s. Such events are on the decline in Africa; viewed across time,
Africa is also not the regional leader of such events on a per-country basis. My point is not to engage in crude regionalism, but rather to
we may be
witnessing significant shifts in the nature of political violence on the
continent. Wars are on the decline since the 1990s, but the character of warfare is also changing. Today there are
fewer big wars fought for state control in which insurgents maintain
substantial control of territory and put up well-structured armies to
fight their counterparts in the state Mali not withstanding. Such wars were modal into the 1990s. From
suggest that what often transpires as common sense about sub-Saharan Africa is wrong. The bigger point is that
southern Africa in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, and even Zimbabwe to the long wars in the Horn in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan to the Great
Lakes wars in Rwanda and Uganda, the typical armed conflict in Africa involved two major, territory-holding armies fighting each other for
dimensions, and rather than drawing funding from big external states they depend on illicit trade, banditry, and international terrorist
networks.
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axes in their hands, and make them do the killing. Look closely at some of the continent's most intractable conflicts, from the rebel-laden
What we are
seeing is the decline of the classic African liberation movement and the proliferation of
creeks of the Niger Delta to the inferno in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and this is what you will find.
something else -- something wilder, messier, more violent, and harder to wrap our heads around. If you'd like to call this war, fine. But what is
spreading across Africa like a viral pandemic is actually just opportunistic, heavily armed banditry. My job as the New York Times' East Africa
bureau chief is to cover news and feature stories in 12 countries. But most of my time is spent immersed in these un-wars. I've witnessed up
close -- often way too close -- how combat has morphed from soldier vs. soldier (now a rarity in Africa) to soldier vs. civilian. Most of today's
African fighters are not rebels with a cause; they're predators. That's why we see stunning atrocities like
eastern Congo's rape epidemic, where armed groups in recent years have sexually assaulted hundreds of thousands of women, often so
sadistically that the victims are left incontinent for life. What is the military or political objective of ramming an assault rifle inside a woman
even user-friendly, tourist-filled Kenya blew up in 2008. Add together the casualties in just the dozen countries that I cover, and you have a
death toll of tens of thousands of civilians each year. More than 5 million have died in Congo alone since 1998, the International Rescue
Committee has estimated. Of course, many of the last generation's independence struggles were bloody, too. South Sudan's decades-long
rebellion is thought to have cost more than 2 million lives. But this is not about numbers. This is about methods and objectives, and the
leaders driving them. Uganda's top guerrilla of the 1980s, Yoweri Museveni, used to fire up his rebels by telling them they were on the ground
floor of a national people's army. Museveni became president in 1986, and he's still in office (another problem, another story). But his words
seem downright noble compared with the best-known rebel leader from his country today, Joseph Kony, who just gives orders to burn.
Even if you could coax these men out of their jungle lairs and get
them to the negotiating table, there is very little to offer them. They
don't want ministries or tracts of land to govern. Their armies are often traumatized
children, with experience and skills (if you can call them that) totally unsuited for civilian life. All they want is cash, guns, and a license to
devious characters whose organizations would likely disappear as soon as they do. That's what happened in Angola when the diamondsmuggling rebel leader Jonas Savimbi was shot, bringing a sudden end to one of the Cold War's most intense conflicts. In Liberia, the moment
that warlord-turned-president Charles Taylor was arrested in 2006 was the same moment that the curtain dropped on the gruesome circus of
10-year-old killers wearing Halloween masks. Countless dollars, hours, and lives have been wasted on fruitless rounds of talks that will never
culminate in such clear-cut results. The same could be said of indictments of rebel leaders for crimes against humanity by the International
Criminal Court. With the prospect of prosecution looming, those fighting are sure never to give up.
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A2 Asian Instability
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Many Americans think we're winding down in Afghanistan by the end of next year, for better or for worse.
We're not. Despite America's evident desire to extricate itself from the nation's longest war, Taliban
fighters, criminal gangs, and other insurgents continue to terrorize much of Afghanistan, making travel
around the country as difficult as it's ever been. And the grim bargain that has dogged U.S. efforts in
Afghanistan since the beginning of President Obama's "surge" still holds: The United States must find a
way to supply and support an Afghan national army and police force that Washington has largely built but
which is barely in its adolescence, although it is already 10 times the size of the fierce Taliban insurgency it
is fighting. More from National Journal Did David Plouffe Justify IRS Targeting Conservatives? New
NATO's Plan for Afghanistan Post2014: A 'Stable Instability' Senior commanders with the American-led International Security
Assistance Force, which consists of 28 NATO countries and 22 other participating
nations, say that substantial aid and military support is going to be
necessary well after the scheduled withdrawal at the end of 2014. "For
some time to come, it's our expectation that we will need to supply the Afghans [with]
air support, certainly, counter-IED support, logistic support, and a
number of areas where their capabilities are not at the level where
they need to be at," Lt. Gen. Nick Carter, the deputy ISAF commander, said in an interview in
Kabul over the weekend. "It's our expectation that we'll need to continue to build those
areas for some time to come and probably beyond 2014." Asked how many
Fracking Rules Have Environmental Groups Worried
years that role might go, Carter, a British officer, said he believes that ISAF will need to "set the horizon
out to 2018 ... It will take between three and five years to achieve. And it's important for people to
understand that."
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Central Asia will cease to be a first-order, or even second- order, priority for the United
States. Concerns about U.S. staying power in Afghanistan are already leading states across the region to hedge their bets. While Washington
will have more pressing inter- ests elsewhere, including in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific, it needs to avoid the temptation to turn its back
on Central Asia. With Central Asias own future increasingly in doubt, the United States needs topublicly and privatelyemphasize that its
interests in Central Asia are enduring, and that it will remain engaged at multiple levels even after its combat troops have left Afghanistan.
A2 Amazon Rainforest
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species looked like a hopeless cause. Thats because, starting in the late 1960s,
Brazil began cutting down and burning forest at an alarming rate. To date, it has cleared 18% of the
So
that Brazil adopted in its climate change law only the law gave the country until
2020 to reach that figure. Brazil did this, in part, by creating national parks and
recognizing indigenous lands over an area that was, yet again, the size
of France. It also started to enforce its once lax forest protection
laws. There are lots of characters in this story ranchers, farmers, environmentalists, government
agents. But I think that to understand how Brazil managed to become the world
leader in reducing deforestation, you need to know the story of my friend Krentoma.
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Environmentalists are
concerned that the lines will give colonists and developers access to
remote forest areas.
early 1980sthrough sensitive forest areas to Roraima state in Brazil.
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Environmental alarmism should be taken for what it isa natural tendency of
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A2 Chemical Industry
Chem industry is resilient- product, geography, diversity.
ICIS 12 (November 11, NACD: Chemical distributors resilient in the face of
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A2 US China Relations
Updated
US-China relations are lowUS and China dont approach
the same issues and dialogue is constrained.
Elizabeth C. Economy, June 7 2013, Obama and Xi: Can the United States and China Speak
the Same Language? C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies;
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2013/06/07/obama-and-xi-can-the-united-states-and-china-speak-the-samelanguage/, KTG
time around the Chinese are trying their best to flesh out their concept of a new relationshipan acknowledgement, perhaps, that it wont go anywhere if there arent
relationship depends on the United States; China has already done its part. Former Chinese Ambassador L Fengding, for example, has claimed that since China has
done its utmost to show its sincerity, Americans should take practical steps as well. At the very least
fabricating excuses, such as alleged cyber-attacks to vilify China, mislead the American public opinion and sabotage a [sic] prosperous SinoAmerican relations. The United States should also try to clarify its intentions for implementing its rebalancing strategy in Asia-Pacific, as well as refrain from interfering in
leading Chinese scholar and brother of former Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi, the
and coordinate strategic thoughts and policies. And China Institute of International Studies Vice President Ruan Zongze has argued that the main purpose of the new
relationship is to avoid a zero-sum game featuring historical relations between big powers jostling for hegemony by force. Threaded through all these disparate views,
however, is a sense that there is something more that the Chinese are seeking, something they dont want to have to ask for, namely, as Jamil Anderlini suggests in the
to both sidesthe United States and Chinato build a new model of relations between an existing power and an emerging one in order to avoid realizing the premise
cyberhacking, stop IP theft, stop human rights abuses, stop North Koreas nuclear program, stop ratcheting up tensions in the East and South China Sea, and stop
not that the two countries dont speak the same language, its just that they dont want to hear what the other is saying.
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summit.
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A2 Methane Drilling
Benefits are all hype and trying to mine it throws warming
past the tipping point.
Rowell 13 (Andy, 7/29, Methane Hydrate Hype Continues,
http://priceofoil.org/2013/07/29/methane-hydrate-hype-continues/, Accessed
8/2/13, Keerthi)
Just as the concern surrounding leaking methane hydrates increases from a
climate perspective, with scientists warning about a $60 trillion
economic time-bomb, so does the hype about tapping hydrates as
an energy resource. I blogged back in March this year about the madness
of trying to drill methane hydrates sometimes called fire ice and what this
would mean for the climate. Lets not forget that methane is a much more
potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. However the methane
hydrate hype continues. The Wall Street Journal European edition today
reports that scientists in Japan and the US say they are moving closer
to tapping the methane hydrate resource which they put at 700,000
trillion cubic feet or more energy than all previously discovered oil and gas
combined. And that energy contains one hell of a lot of carbon. In
short, methane hydrates are likely to be fools gold. As the
Washington Post has pointed out before: If a significant fraction of
hydrates are developed the bottom line is that It could prove
impossible to keep global warming below the goal of 2C.
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and
global trends
Even
in the news
watching the
, I'm not ready to say
yes to this being a crisis year, a sort of collision of global, regional and local circumstances that cause many governments to face change at
are democratically elected, though with their various flaws and modifying adjectives. It's a different history, culture and economy.
People have different expectations of their governments . That said, some of Latin
America's democracies have been less stable than the MidEast dictatorships over the past two decades. Latin Americans
feel many of the same frustrations in terms of governments not delivering on
their promises of economic development and social justice. Being different means Latin America experiences instability
differently, not that it's immune to destabilizing events. Second, what would regional instability look like? I think
it would mean significant protests in many countries and an unscheduled
change of government (via protest, coup, forced resignation, or
other event) in 3 or 4 countries in the hemisphere this year. It may also include the
possibility for violent conflict, civil war, or "dueling governments" in
which two different groups try to claim they are the legitimate governing authorities in a country. It's not a pretty
picture. It's a scenario I fear and a prediction I'm very reluctant to make (so I'm not making it yet; to stress, I'm not certain this is what
we will see, but it's possible). Third, think in terms of months, not days . With the
speed of events in the Middle East combined with the immediacy of new media coverage, it feels
like everything is sprinting towards a dramatic conclusion (people will be writing
me next week to claim that I'm wrong because nothing has happened in Latin America yet). The protests in Tunisia took weeks to topple the
government and Egypt is still going on after a week. If this is linked to global commodity prices and we think those prices are going to increase
think are stable could be hit suddenly by this . It's not just countries
that many analysts think are unstable in their democracies (i.e. Guatemala,
Honduras, Ecuador and Paraguay). We should also be watching Chile, Colombia, Peru, Cuba and others. If this is
a "crisis year," then governments are going to be destabilized in ways that you thought six months ago would be near impossible.
Mexico Instability
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Tipping Point: Why the United States Must Assist Mexico in the Mexican Drug
War Agathai Quarterly Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, Winter 2011
http://www.mortarboardatucla.org/uploads/4/7/8/9/4789362/winter_journal.pd
f#page=26
The third reason why the United States must enhance its aid to Mexico is the possibility of a failed Mexican
The drug war in Mexico has become a life or death struggle for
the Mexican government. Despite substantial US aid, the Mexican authorities
remain outgunned and outmanned. The drug cartels, although not acting as
an alternative government per say, enjoy near autonomy throughout a number of
cities across the country, including border cities such as Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez. In effect, the
Mexican government has completely committed itself to fighting
against the drug cartels, but is at best failing to make progress and at worst losing the war.
state.
What is even more disheartening is the consideration that the drug cartels are the ones with time on their
side. While the Mexican government has neither the resources nor the man power to continue its major
offensive without more substantial assistance from the United States, the drug cartels remain as powerful
number of scholars and politicians, including Mexican President Calderon, who ardently argue that the
Mexican state will not fail, it is significant to note that the US government is already preparing itself for
that possibility. In fact, according to a study by the United States Joint Forces Command, which looks to
uncover future developments to ensure that the US military will not be caught off guard, Mexico is
considered a large and important [state that] bear[s] consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse.177
The study also states that the
If
the Mexican government were to fail, the United States would be
forced to take direct military action against the drug cartels. As the Joint
product of the US governments fear that such an event has a very real potential to actually occur.
Forces Command report notes, any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response
based on the serious implications for homeland security 175 Serrano, No longer next door. 176
Ruben Navarette Jr., Commentary: What Mexicos drug war means for U.S., CNNPolitics.com, February
27, 2009. 177 Bernd Debusmann, Among top U.S. fear: A failed Mexican state, The New York Times,
January 9, 2009. 178 Ibid 179 Joshua Rhett Miller, If Violence Escalates in Mexico, Texas Officials Plan to
That
response could prove to be nothing less than a full scale war
because, unlike in the current situation, the United States would not
have the luxury of having the Mexico state to fight on its behalf.
Essentially, if the United States does not provide more meaningful
aid now, then it may be forced to fight another war that would affect
its own citizenry directly. It is irrefutable that the amount of aid that is necessary is
be Ready, FoxNews.com, February 12, 2009. Agathai Quarterly Journal 27 alone.180
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substantially more than the four hundred million dollars worth that the United States has already
promised , through the Mrida Initiative. But all of those extra costs, all of which are economic, pale in
comparison to the amount of money and manpower that the United States would have to expend to win a
war against the drug cartels directly. Therefore, it would be prudent for the US to provide more aid now
rather than waiting and possibly being forced into a position where it has no choice but to fight a war on its
home front.
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relating to
relationships. Mexico is the United States third-largest trading partner and 80 percent of Mexican legal exports are destined for U.S.
consumption. But the real problem is that Americans are also the Mexican drug cartels best customers because there is great demand for
drugs. And addicts dont care where drugs come from and what their consummation implies. 90 percent of cocaine enters the U.S. through
the Mexican border. Even more, these cartels also manufacture 80 percent of the crystal meth sold in America, 14 percent of the heroin and a
huge amount of marijuana. American dollars are essentially funding drugs wars which resulted in the death of over 34,000 people in the past
four years and are partly responsible for the situation. A measure of the U.S. to help Mexico would be to fight against the black market,
because the war on drugs is driven by the motive of profit and for this they need to sell drugs on the black market. To return the favor,
Mexico is the biggest buyer of weapons from America. The Obama Administration and the ATF
shipped guns into Mexico so that they could "track them." Some of these guns could have been used to kill U.S. agents. The U.S. Bureau of
Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is estimating that around 90 percent of those guns taken away at the border or after violent
conflicts, is produced in the U.S. So on the one hand the U.S. is fighting against the mafia clans but on the other side is selling them weapons
reason why
Mexico is dangerous for a part of America is the cartels capabilities .
to kill innocent people. It seems that people just have a conscience as long as there is no money involved. Another
The U.S: Defense Department has stated the two of Mexicos biggest drug cartels, Sinaloa and Gulf, have about 100,000 foot soldiers. This is
has reported that Mexican drug cartels have gang members in nearly 200 U.S. cities from Los Angeles to Baltimore and represent the largest
the
violence in Mexico is an extremely serious U.S. national security
issue as well. This is an issue of joint responsibility . If left
unchecked, the Mexican government itself may collapse and descend
into chaos. The U.S. should immediately work to curb demand, monitor weapon sales and pursue a comprehensive effort to combat
threat to both citizens and law enforcement agencies in this country. So it is okay to worry about Pakistan and Afghanistan, but
the ruthless drug lords from border protection policies to taking advantage of the abilities of the Central Intelligence Agency, as well as the
Treasury and State departments, among others. Over all, the drug wars in Mexico have already claimed nearly 40,000 lives since 2006 in a
massacre of be headings, kidnappings, torture and corruption. The violence that powerful Mexican cartels have brought into the border
regions of the United States is underestimated. But one have to remember that this is not a Mexican problem, it is also a North American
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Alliance Is Born
http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/7072.28736.123.0/united-states/anotheranti-us-alliance-is-born, DOA 7/11/13, Keerthi)
The writing has been on the wall ever since certain populist leaders gained the upper hand in Latino
attitude of seeming disinterest. Such a response to current developments in this strategic southern
the conclusion of a two-day summit in Cancun, Mexican President Felipe Calderon announced to
The name and structure of the new organization will be determined at a summit in Caracas, Venezuela,
next year. In an early sign of strengthening anti-Anglo-Saxon orientation in the region, this Latin bloc
threw its weight behind Argentinas renewed calls for Britain to hand over the Falkland Islands to that
southern Latino nation. In an early opinion on the new organization, China, already entrenched in the
region, said the development could help Beijing increase its cooperation with Caribbean and Latin
American countries. China Daily reported that Trade between China and Latin America reached $111.461
billion in the first three quarters of 2008, with Chinas direct non-financial investment in the region
involving trade, manufacturing, gas and oil exploration amounting to $960 million at the end of June in
2008 (February 22). Yet observers are cautious as to the new blocs prospects for success given the
disunity that presently divides more conservative leaders in countries such as Colombia, Chile and Peru
from the leftists leading Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba. Brazils President Lula da Silva is quite
often the balancing factor in any political feuds between these factions. Despite the show of bravado in
seeking to distance the region from Anglo-Saxon influence, Latin America has no real history of intraregional cohesion.
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dedicated to energy and its impact on society; published by the Institute for
the Study of Energy and Our Future; http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5172,
DOA 7/11/13, Keerthi
First, the increasing instability in Mexico will have a significant impact
on PEMEXs ability to maintain the necessary levels of investment to
minimize production declines. This creates a positive feedback-loop: faster declines
mean more financial difficulties, more instability, and less
investment, precipitating even faster declines. In 2009, PEMEX plans capital
expenditures of roughly $20 Billion. Traditionally, due to laws that prevent foreign ownership of many categories of natural
impact north of the border. There is already a clear spill-over in criminal activity in border states. At some point, the
national security threat to the United States will bring calls for interventionbut are there any effective options? The
sprawling yet dense cities and mountainous rural terrain of Northern Mexico should give any military planners pause,
especially in light of recent American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. That didn't stop President Obama and Admiral
Mullen from meeting yesterday to discuss exactly these options. Some commentators have even suggested that Mexico,
The
potential impact on Mexican oil production seems clear. More superficially, the
not Iraq or Russia or Afghanistan, will be the defining national security challenge of the Obama administration.
situation in Mexico gives commentators of all stripes something to worry about. The spill-over of drug violence seems to
preoccupy most mainstream talking-heads, but a few commentators have traced these problems back to their rootsand
see a much more troubling threat. Specifically, the troubles in Mexico are an early sign of the failure of the Nation-State
model. Ive written about this extensively, and my intent here is not to re-hash my critique of the Nation-State system: if
both companies in the presence of Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto. The deal indicates a
rapprochement between Mexico and China, who have had a chequered relationship over the last couple of
years. Efforts to mend bilateral fences are being led by Pea Nieto, who visited China at the beginning of
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a report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In 2012 only 9% of Chinas oil
Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, points out that a further advantage of
the deal for Mexico will be a reduction in its trade deficit with China, currently at $51.2bn.
China does not possess a sufficient supply and has had to look
overseas. Doubly unfortunate for them is that while everyone else
was cozying up to the Middle East to score oil rights, the Chinese
were waging war amongst themselves, leaving them the odd man
out. Nowadays, they are struggling to make up for lost time . The fact is
them,
that China has on hand less than ten days of supply versus about 60 days for the United States and 100
days for Japan. (1) This has led to Chinas embracing some of the worlds most despotic regimes in order
to meet its needs. Not only has this given a black eye to the image of the Chinese communists but also has
meant risk to Chinas oil needs. Absent sufficient energy the Chinese economy will falter and crumble.
China would need the resources from four earths in order to raise its standard of living to equal that of the
supply should things go sour between the two countries. China would like to avoid having its oil cut off by
most of the area and brought it in conflict with most of its neighbors. Relying on ancient maps and little
else, the Chinese claim that most of the oil rich seabed does now and has always belonged to the
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intervention/protection in the area. For its part, China is non-plussed by such action.
The truth is that the Chinese juggernaut needs oil and foreign interference be damned.
Chinas aggression in the region will spark more unrest and lead to a conflict this year. This bold
claim is based on the following: > Xi Jinping needs to appear strong
to the people, a small scale conflict could ensure his legacy > An armed conflict will take
pressure off internal problems such as stagnating economy and corruption > Armed
conflict will also showcase the military might of the communist party and forestall
revolution- the Chinese military reports to the communist party it has not link to the people nor the
the Conflict Will Look Like Most people believe that China will not attack Japan vis-a-vis the
Senkakus/Diaoyus and risk losing face should they fail to succeed. In addition, some argue that by
attacking Japan, China runs the risk of alienating the US which could result in economic sanctions at a time
China can barely afford to do so. There is merit in this argument, but it fails to take into account the
human element and irrational nature of Chinas government. Chinas communist party is made up of a
proud group of mostly men who have been brought up resenting the West, its meddling, unequal treaties
and exploitation of China. These people would like nothing more than to restore China to the glory of its
past. Chinas military expansion is impressive. Aside from buying the best in Russian tech and stealing
advanced weapons from the West, the Chinese are also focusing on indigenous innovation. In order to
create influence in the new world order, the Chinese are investing heavily in their military capabilities. A
country does not manufacture scores of fighter jets and a naval armada to parade them before the world,
have recently sent vessels and aircraft around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyudos resulting in the Japanese
air force scrambling fighters. (2) Aside from this, the Japanese have also detained Chinese fishermen for
country to slip up, perhaps down a Chinese vessel and then a conflict to erupt. The conflict will probably be
short in duration and scale and result in derision from the West. If economic sanctions result the Chinese
will negotiate a peaceful solution. Should this conflict occur when anti-foreigner sentiments are running
Beijing
will pay less attention to international scrutiny as it worries about
internal dissent and revolution. It is highly probable that China will
engage a neighbor in armed conflict and there is a 50/50 chance it will be Japan.
high, then Beijing may be forced to engage the other nation with more fervor. If this is the case,
Conflict with Japan will mostly depend on the continuing Chinese aggression in the island chain, slow
economic growth and increase in anti-Japanese propaganda. While 2012 proved to be an incredible year
for China watchers, 2013 hold even more promise.
the U.S. and China were involved in a nuclear exchange. The cause
of this conflict was a war brought about between China and the
Philippines after the Philippines seized several of the Spratly Islands to secure natural
resources and the sea lanes traversing the South China seas, both of
which it would use to advance itself in the global economy. China
refused to accept this action and attacked, and the U.S. was dragged
in after the president was pressured by Congress and American
allies to honor Americas mutual-defense agreement with the
Philippines. The result was disastrous. While this is a hypothetical
example, similar scenarios are becoming increasingly probable . Due to
increasing economic competition and climate change , a source of future conflict will be the contest
for control over the seas. The U.S. must adequately plan for future contingencies to avoid any surprises and to discern what it needs to
Yesterday,
do to prevent the worst-case scenario from occurring. Economic competition on the seas can be seen most clearly in terms of port construction. As it stands, over 90% of
all goods measured by weight or volume are transported by cargo ship, and port construction greatly increase a nations access to foreign markets and appeal as a
manufacturing center. Conversely, a nations investment in ports reduces the amount of goods traveling to other nations, thus damaging their economies. Unlike other
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this year after Kuwait announced it was investing heavily in building a new port (the Mubarak Kabeer) only 20 kilometers away from a port Iraq was building (the Grand alFaw). Rapprochement swiftly ended over Iraqi fears of economic strangulation and calls for eternal brotherhood were replaced by curses. Nowadays, rumors abound that
Iraqi and Kuwaiti forces are infiltrating the border areas and Iraqi militants have already launched rockets from Iraq into Kuwait and threatened to kidnap the contractors
building the Mubarak Kabeer port. While threatening, this conflict is unlikely to explode as Iraq is in no shape to wage war and labors under a history of belligerence it is
trying to expunge. But what if a similar sequence of events occurred in Southeast/East Asia, where GDP is growing an average of 6%-7% a year(with China at 9.1%) and
states can operate more freely? The U.S. is investing more resources in the region at the exact moment when growing economic competition make conflict more likely.
would submerge large tracts of land, displacing millions of people and wiping out urban and agricultural areas. Since they are built on the coast, this would also damage or
destroy many ports worldwide and jeopardize international commerce as we know it. These losses would be difficult to replace given the increased environmental
pressures Southeast/East Asian states would face as well as the spillover problems that would arise as low-lying countries sink into the sea and collapse. Competition over
the ports that survive will be fierce as whoever possesses them would likely dominate the sea lanes and international commerce for some time, leading to regional
dominance. Similarly, economic competition and climate change are going to going to cause havoc on the military industrial base supporting naval power in the region. It
is expensive to build a competitive navy, and many states will be unable to afford it if they need to constantly adapt to economic and environmental pressure. China and
India are already building up their naval forces and will likely be naval powers into the foreseeable future, but the U.S. will gain a lot of allies in the future struggling to get
the U.S. involved in every security dispute they have. Like WWI, someone may gamble incorrectly, and a conflict that starts as a minor incident may explode into
to limit the appeal of coercive power and the ability to use that power arbitrarily. We need a way to maintain the strength of our alliances without getting sucked into
conflicts we dont want, besides selling more weapons that only make war increasingly likely. Regardless of the exact policies, policymakers need to start thinking ahead
on how it will deal with the implications economic competition and climate change are going to have on maritime power. Intelligent observers of the Middle East knew for
years that the authoritarian status quo was unsustainable, yet no plans were made to respond to the collapse of those regimes and our response could have been better.
Venezuela Instability
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Mauricio Cardenas told Reuters editors and Reuters Television. Fture growth however could see an annual
boost of two percentage points, thanks to planned increases to infrastructure spending and if peace talks
with Marxist-led FARC rebels - due to restart on Tuesday - succeed in ending half a century of insurgency.
"We are going to make an announcement by the end of this week of between 4.4 and 4.5 percent, we are
revising our projections a little downward," he said of the growth forecast which is currently at 4.8
percent. The exact revision is dependent on economic data coming through this week. Falling commodity
He added Colombia has been talking with Venezuelan ministers about the possibility of offering food for oil,
likely to keep a Brent crude oil reference rate of around $100 (64.25 pounds) a barrel for budget purposes,
he said, not far below the current $104 level. The U.S. shale gas revolution has also cut the United States
as an export destination for Colombia's coal, he added.
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Strong relations are key to address every major issue--specifically, climate change.
Burns 12 (William J. Burns, Deputy Sec. of the Dept. of State, The
relationship between the United States and Colombia grows more committed,
more productive, and more important every day, Diplomatic News,
http://www.diplonews.com/feeds/free/1_August_2012_121.php, DOA 7/13/13,
Keerthi)
The relationship between the United States and Colombia grows
more committed, more productive, and more important every day. President
Obama recently affirmed that Colombia is one of the United States strongest partners and we commend
the remarkable progress Colombia has made over the last decade. Through the High-Level Partnership
initiatives and affirmed joint objectives that will build a more prosperous and secure future for both of our
United States and Colombia are already working with the Inter-American Development Bank and the World
Bank to support Connect 2022, including in the Andean region. Meanwhile, USAID's $18.6 million Clean
Energy Program, which we are pleased to announce today, moves us one step closer to ensuring access to
clean, secure, and sustainable energy resources for everyone in Colombia, including those who currently
have no access to electricity. Our
Increasing such academic cross-pollination is the goal of President Obama's 100,000 Strong in the
Americas initiative. Through initiatives like the AmCham-U.S. Embassy English Language Scholarships we
announced today, which will sponsor English language instruction for underprivileged Colombian youth, we
can harness the power of public-private partnership to help fulfill the tremendous potential of both our
nations youth.
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'business as usual' projections, which actual emissions have been matching, the range of likely warming runs from
3.1--7.1C. Even keeping emissions at constant 2000 levels (which have already been exceeded), global temperature
would still be expected to reach 1.2C (O'9""1.5C)above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century."
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AFF A2 LA Instability
The region is self-healing and resilienttheir evidence
ignores these structural factors.
Dabene 9 (Olivier, Prof. of Political Sci. at Paris Institute of Political Studies, PhD in Poli.Sci.,
Consistency despite instability, resilience despite crises Explaining Latin American regional integrations
oxymoron, International Studies Association, FLACSO rea de Relaciones Internacionales,
http://rrii.flacso.org.ar/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Art%C3%ADculo-Dabene.pdf, DOA 7/12/13,
Keerthi)
A new pattern of integration emerged during the 1990s. Historically, the regional groupings
of Latin America used to include countries that were all assuming the same level of commitment, agreed upon a unique
pace of integration and built a consensus around a single agenda of issue areas. This logic was progressively abandoned.
El Salvador, for instance, signed the San Ana Pact in 1946, supposedly paving the way for the political union of the region.
The project was ill born, as it became clear that Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Honduras did not have any intention to build a
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point, the Central American Custom Unions had at that time only two members (Guatemala and Salvador) whereas the
Regional International Organization of Agriculture Sanitation (OIRSA) had nine (seven Central Americans plus Mexico and
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peace, cooperation,
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/07/05/news/national/pakistan-chinavow-to-promote-regional-peace-cooperation/, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
Pakistan and China on Friday resolved to promote policies aimed at
advancing the cause of peace, cooperation and harmony and creating a win-win situation in the region. In a joint statement
issued after a meeting between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang, both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to
pursue people-centric policies that could mitigate poverty, promote social and economic development and diminish the roots of conflict.
During the meeting, Nawaz reaffirmed the strong commitment of his government to further promote and deepen the bilateral strategic
cooperation between China and Pakistan. The Chinese leaders appreciated Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for choosing China as his first
destination for his foreign visit. Nawaz underscored that the recent political transition in Pakistan was a historic development which would
reviewed with satisfaction the development of China-Pakistan relations and were of the view that this relationship had acquired growing
strategic significance in the emerging dynamics of 21st century. Both sides decided to continue deepening the Sino-Pakistan strategic
principles of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good-Neighborly Relations between the People's Republic of China and the Islamic
Republic of Pakistan signed in April 2005 and on the basis of the existing close cooperation. In addition to the above, China also reaffirmed
that its relationship with Pakistan was always a matter of highest priority in its foreign policy, and it would continue to strengthen this strategic
China vowed
to continue extending its full support to Pakistan in the latter's
efforts to uphold its independence, sovereignty and territorial
integrity, while respecting the development path chosen by the
people according to its national priority, and support Pakistan in
maintaining social stability and economic development. Pakistan reiterated that
partnership. China appreciated Pakistan's long-term, staunch support on issues concerning China's core interests.
friendship with China was the cornerstone of its foreign policy, enjoying a national consensus and appreciated the support and assistance of
the Chinese government and people for Pakistan's sovereignty and socio-economic development. "Pakistan will continue to adhere to its oneChina policy, oppose Taiwan and Tibet's independence and support China's efforts in combating the "Three Evils" of extremism, terrorism and
separatism. We regard ETIM as our common threat and stand united in combating this menace," the Pakistani prime minister resolved. The
two sides believed that maintaining the tradition of frequent exchange of visits and meetings between their leadership and fully leveraging
arrangements such as annual meetings between their leaders, is of great importance in advancing bilateral relations. They also agreed to
enhance the role of mechanisms such as foreign ministers' dialogue, strategic dialogue and other consultative mechanisms between the
relevant ministries and departments, so as to strengthen the strategic communication and coordination between the two countries. The two
countries reaffirmed that expanding bilateral economic relations was a matter of high priority and agreed that China was committed to
realising the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation by accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development and earnestly
the ties of pragmatic cooperation between them, with a view to translating their high-level political relationship into wider economic dividends.
To this end, the two sides will strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, energy, agriculture, mining, food security, environment, finance
and other fields. Both Pakistan and China agreed to fully implement the Additional Agreement to Extend the Five Year Development
Programme on China - Pakistan Trade and Economic Cooperation and the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement; fast track work on the projects
identified under the Five Year Development Programme; hold the second phase of tax-reduction negotiations of China-Pakistan Free Trade
It was also
resolved that enhancing connectivity between China and Pakistan is
of great importance to expanding economic and trade cooperation,
promoting economic integration, and fostering economic
development of the two countries.
Agreement on speedy basis; further liberalise trade, and advance economic integration between them.
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A2 Clean Tech
Leadership/Modeling
TONS of alternative causes to clean tech leadership.
NREL 9 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, under the DOE,
Stakeholders emphasized the need to consolidate and better coordinate U.S. international clean energy programs across
agencies to ensure that they all support a few well-defined goals and are implemented in an integrated manner; and so
Leadership U.S.
leadership in key forums, such as the international climate change
negotiations, must be more effective. Technology Cooperation
The U.S. government could significantly strengthen its technology
research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3)
cooperation with other countries and international institutions to
leverage resources and accelerate progress toward common research and deployment goals
Investment Facilitation U.S. clean energy investment-facilitation
programs are not fully addressing the private-sector need for risk
mitigation and are not well-coordinated or streamlined (with exceptions such as EXIM programs)
Developing Country Market Reform The U.S. government is wellpositioned to play a bigger role in teaming with major developing
countries on assessments, policy-design support, technology standards, and workforce development
needed for clean energy market transformation and private investment. Domestic Action The
United States must pursue domestic policies and measures in tandem with these
that business and other partners can have one primary focal point for collaboration. 7
international efforts to maintain a thriving clean energy industry and technology leadership that provides the foundation
for international cooperation.
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A2 Japan Relations
Alt CausesA) Futenma Base
Cooper et al. 13 (Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, Mark
E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper, Specialist in
International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart, Analyst in Asian Affairs,
Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress, FAS;
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33436.pdf, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
A prominent controversy over the relocation of a Marine Corps base
in Okinawa has vexed the alliance for years. While a comprehensive resolution remains
elusive, the two governments have adjusted the plan in a way that
removes the issue from the center of the security relationship . The 2006
agreement between the U.S. and Japanese governments to relocate the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station from its current
location in crowded Ginowan City to Camp Schwab, in a less congested part of the island, was envisioned as the
between Tokyo and Washington after Yukio Hatoyama became prime minister in 2009; Hatoyama had promised
Okinawans during his election campaign that he would oppose the relocation. Although Hatoyama and his DPJ successors
residents, about 9,000 marines and their dependents would be transferred to locations outside of Japan: to Guam, Hawaii,
on a rotational basis to Australia, and perhaps elsewhere. Alliance officials described the move as in line with their goal of
making U.S. force posture in Asia more geographically distributed, operationally resilient, and politically sustainable.30
The official timeline for the reversion of U.S. base territory back to Japanese control indicates that substantial amounts of
uncertainty about the future U.S. force posture in the Asia-Pacific region drove Congress to zero out the Administrations
request for related military construction funding in the FY2012 and FY2013 National Defense Authorization Acts, P.L. 11281 and P.L. 112-239. The acts prohibit authorized funds, as well as funds provided by the Japanese government for military
construction, from being obligated to implement the planned realignment of Marine Corps forces from Okinawa to Guam
until certain justifications and assessments are provided. In April 2013, the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC)
issued a report that examined U.S. costs associated with the American military presence overseas, including in Japan.33
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respond to an incoming attack on those vessels. As the United States and Japan increasingly integrate
missile defense operation, the ban on collective self-defense also raises questions about how Japanese
Under the
current interpretation, Japanese forces could not respond if the
United States were attacked.
commanders will gauge whether American forces or Japan itself is being targeted.
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A2 Soft/Smart Power
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1NC
Soft/Smart Power empirically fails, is all hype, and doesnt
solve any world issues, Nye is wrong, and turn- soft power
hurts influence and causes terrorism.
Lacey 4/22/13, Soft Power, Smart Power, Jim Lacey- National Review
correspondent, http://www.nationalreview.com/article/346131/soft-powersmart-power, Accessed 8.4.13, Keerthi)
A few years back, a number of policymakers, jumping on a popular academic
trend given its greatest voice by Joseph Nye, began espousing a theory of
soft power. In this new and shiny vision, America could wield its greatest global
influence through the power of its example. The world would just look at how good
we were, and how great it was to be an American, and clamor to follow us. Somehow these
visionaries neglected to notice that Europes almost total unilateral
disarmament had failed to translate into influence on the global stage. Rather,
it had done the opposite. In a remarkably short time, European opinions on any matter of
consequence ceased to matter. Worse, a large segment of the world took a
good look at the American example and was repelled. Some of these
people launched the 9/11 attack. At some point, it became clear that
those holding a world vision that included returning to eighthcentury barbarism were not finding our example attractive. Our
deep-thinking strategists realized they needed a new answer. What
they came up with was even more seductive than soft power. In the
future, America would prosper through the employment of smart
power. One wonders if our policymakers had been willfully
employing dumb power for the previous two centuries. In any
case, smart-power advocates claimed that a new policy nirvana was
attainable, if only we could find the right mix of soft and hard
power. Well, soft power and smart power were fascinating intellectual exercises that led
nowhere. Iran is still building nuclear weapons, North Korea is
threatening to nuke U.S. cities, and China is becoming militarily more
aggressive. It turns out that power is what it has always been the ability
to influence and control others and deploying it requires, as it always has, hard
instruments. Without superior military power and the economic strength
that underpins it, the U.S. would have no more ability to influence
global events than Costa Rica.
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two unspoken beliefs: that the relative power of the U.S. is declining, as rivals like China rise, and that the U.S. is reviled in many parts of the
the presidents deputy national security advisers. If you were to boil it all down to a bumper sticker, its Wind down these two wars,
reestablish American standing and leadership in the world, and focus on a broader set of priorities, from Asia and the global economy to a
one of the most brutal repressions in decades. The situation has grown worse, with the almost certain use of chemical weapons crossing what
Iran remains undeterred as well, with its own red line in doubt. Meanwhile, the
United States suffered its first terrorist bombing since 9/11, with three killed
and more than 200 wounded an event that occurred eight months after the attack on our
consulate in Benghazi, Libya, where a U.S. ambassador was killed for the first time in 33 years. The
problem of America being reviled in many parts of the world is
vastly overblown, but it has surely not been remedied. Europeans and the Japanese like us more, but they were pretty fond
nonproliferation
of us to start with. Muslims, according to the Pew Research Center, like us less. In Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon, the average
national security strategy was simple: keep America safe and promote freedom. These goals are linked; free nations rarely threaten the United
States or their own neighbors. Achieving both these goals requires leadership a consistency that reassures our allies and deters our
Thus, the war of ideas that Bush waged against terrorist ideologies was jettisoned, as was stand-up support for democratic movements and
freedom advocates. It is hard to see the evidence that abandoning these approaches has made the United States more secure or the world
less volatile. The good news is that, also within the last 100 days, the United States is starting to lead in one important foreign policy sphere:
trade. The administration, in a 180-degree shift, has gotten serious about a free-trade pact with Europe and a separate Pacific agreement that
now includes Japan. If it is successful, these trade agreements, affecting countries representing three-fifths of the worlds economic output,
as persuading Iranians to oppose their regimes attempts to develop nuclear weapons or supporting democratic elements in Egypt and other
nations of the Arab spring. The president knows these tools well and deployed them successfully in his domestic political campaigns. There, at
least, he has not been reluctant to lead from the front.
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she meets in Berlin with President Obama next week, a spokesman said, and other German officials said
they were concerned by the apparent monitoring of their citizens. Top officials of the 27-nation European
Union also said they would press the U.S. government on the matter at bilateral meetings this week. The
PRISM
surveillance program, portions of which were described in recent days by The Washington Post
published on the Guardians Web site indicated that in March 2013, foreign intelligence gathering was
primarily focused on the Middle East. For that month, more pieces of intelligence were gathered in
Germany than anywhere else in Europe. As the Washington Posts Michael Birnbaum points out, Germans
have only had a generation as a whole to be free of the kind of snooping that took place for almost 70
continuous years in East Germany. After the Gestapo and the Stasi, Germans arent keen on government
probing into their private affairs, and theyre even less keen on foreigners doing the snooping. It doesnt
help when the President of the United States defends the program at home by saying, Hey, were not
partners of the NSA on PRISM and other collection programs. Merkel and other leaders are likely to get a
lot more hostile to operations of American Internet providers in Europe, and might start thinking about
subsidizing serious competitors as a defensive measure to keep NSA from snooping on their data.
Nevertheless, the White House says that the NSA programs are here to stay: The Obama administration
considered whether to charge a government contractor with leaking classified surveillance secrets while it
defended the broad U.S. spy program that it says keeps America safe from terrorists. A senior U.S.
intelligence official on Monday said there were no plans to scrap the programs that, despite the backlash,
continue to receive widespread if cautious support within Congress. The official spoke on condition of
anonymity to discuss the sensitive security issue.
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, Nye
reinvigorated an idea that had always been latent in descriptions of
power. That idea was the recognition that symbols, emotions and perceptions are instrumental in people's behavior. When channeled
Seeking to soothe post-Cold War fears that the United States was losing the capacity to do either very well
through these means, power transforms into desire the desire of others, as Nye put it, "to want what you want." Understanding this aspect
of power made it that much easier for a nation at the top table of international politics to obtain the outcomes it desired. So,
Nye's
framework thrilled some, who saw in it an idealistic vision of a nonviolent future.
It continues to outrage those who hear it as a summons to trim U.S.
military potential, while offending others with its suggestion that
the United States could be open to a softer, more feminine face of
power.
irresistibly democratic institutions and the most comely forms of capitalism is meant to seduce almost subconsciously.
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agreement reached by
Iran and the P5+1 nations? The deal in the short run accomplishes a tremendous amount. In the long run, a lot of
work has to be done and a lot of issues have to be settled. In this first six-month period, the deal reduces the risk
posed by Iran's nuclear program and in that sense, it accomplishes
the goal of buying time to get down to the negotiations of the more
substantive, harder issues. So it's balanced. The deal has great
potential and it removes some of the imminent risks posed by the
Iranian nuclear program, at least for six months. All right, enumerate the positive points
first. One of the most positive aspects of this is it tries to eliminate the most dangerous stock of
enriched uranium and that's the stock of 20 percentenriched uranium in the hexafluoride form that's used in the gas
centrifuges. That stock has been increasing over the last couple of years and
nuclear deal in Geneva (Denis Balibouse/Courtesy Reuters). What is your analysis of the
has continued to increase until today. That would allow Iran, if it decided to break out, to further enrich it up to [90 percentenriched]
weapons-grade uranium more quickly than if they had to start with 3.5 percent enriched uranium or natural uranium. That stock under this
deal will be eliminated through half being diluted and half being converted into oxide form. If it's in oxide form, it has to be reconverted back
into hexafluoride before it can be used in centrifuges. That stock of 20 percent oxide could not be used in a breakout scenario. So that's the
Iran agreed it
would not stockpile centrifuges during the six-month period. It's agreed to limit its manufacturing of
most significant thing. Another one that's very important, and this was a surprise to many people, is that
centrifuges to replacing broken ones in the existing enriching centrifuges at Natanz and some at Fordow. And moreover, the International
Atomic Energy Agency will be able to monitor two key parts of the centrifuge-manufacturing complex to make sure that centrifuges aren't
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being made. One is called the rotor, the spinning part of the centrifuge, a very sensitive part. They'll be able to monitor about five locations in
significant agreement that has escaped much public notice. They're also going to freeze essential construction at the heavy water plutoniumproducing reactor at Arak. This reactor can give another path to nuclear weapons. Iran has agreed that it will not install any more components
frozen for six months and buy some time. And there's a whole other set of conditions that aim to provide transparency of the Iranian nuclear
program. Some of those conditions that were accepted by Iran were taken literally from what is called the "Additional Protocol," which
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revolutionary regime sees the liberation of Muslims, especially Palestinians, as one of its core foreign-
and financial support to terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. But the Iranian regime is not
the region's woes, taking some pressure off itself. Hence, the assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps commanders in Syria is not due to Tehran's opposition to Sunni insurgents, but ascribed by the
that it would use nukes directly against rivals such as Saudi Arabia, but that it would become more aggressive in undermining conservative Arab regimes. A nuclear-armed
In reality,
however, a nuclear bomb would not be of much use to Iranian efforts
to spread its influence across the Middle East. The Saudis and their allies, including the SunniIran, for example, might feel more secure in impeding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or stoking unrest in the Persian Gulf.
dominated Bahraini regime, often claim that Iran uses minority Shia populations as a fifth column to further its own ambitions. It is true that Iran has supported Shia
support of the violent Syrian regime has also undermined its position in the region. Moreover, most Gulf Shia do not appear to be devoted followers of Ayatollah Khamenei,
but instead follow other religious leaders, such as Iraq's Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Tehran's possession of nuclear weapons is unlikely to increase its influence with them.
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player in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whereas Iran's position has
declined in recent years. Riyadh's increased energy exports to Iran's traditional customers, mostly Asian countries, have allowed the United States to impose
sanctions on Iran without a dramatic rise in oil prices. Iran also depends heavily on the United Arab Emirates despite sanctions, the
emirate of Dubai serves as Iran's economic gateway to the outside
world. A nuclear Iran would still have to consider its economic
health: Meddling with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could damage its interests more so than those of its neighbors. The Islamic Republic might not give up
its opposition to the Gulf Arab states any time soon, but its ability to undermine the regional order is quite limited and will remain so, even if it obtains nuclear weapons.
exchange with Tel Aviv undermines that aim. The Iranian regime would prefer others do its fighting for it
rather than getting directly involved in a conventional or nuclear war with Israel. Not even Hezbollah is
Spring has opened up many opportunities for Hamas, with the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's
regime and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood decreasing its isolation. The Hamas leader in-exile, Khaled
Mashaal, has taken residence in Qatar and praised Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan as a leader of the
who was once responsible for his promotion to the top post in the Islamic Republic but recently disqualified
from competing in the upcoming presidential election. Trusting a non-Iranian group with a nuclear weapon
would simply be too risky for the risk-averse Khamenei.
E) Containment is possible.
Nader 13 (Alireza, M.A. in international affairs, The George Washington
University; B.A. in political science, University of California, Santa Barbara,
5/29, Think Again: A Nuclear Iran, http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/05/thinkagain-a-nuclear-iran.html, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
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A nuclear-armed Iran cannot be contained It can be , but not without some cost.
Planning for a nuclear-armed Iran is often considered as an
admission of U.S. failure to prevent the Islamic Republic from
acquiring the bomb. Some analysts even consider it dangerous: They fear that it signals to
American allies, especially Israel, that President Barack Obama
might not follow through on his threat to use force if necessary. In reality,
the real choice lies not with Obama, but the Iranian leadership . Iran might
successfully go nuclear even if it faces a total economic embargo and military strikes. The nuclear knowledge and technology developed by Tehran, after all, cannot be
the
United States has contained Iran, in one way or another, since the
1979 Iranian Revolution. Tehran has faced sanctions since that time,
and the United States has maintained a sizeable military presence in
the Persian Gulf for the past three decades to protect its allies and constrain the Islamic Republic's regional ambitions. There is no denying that
containment and deterrence are costly. The United States will have to maintain considerable
military forces in the region, and might have to strengthen relations with its Sunni Gulf allies, some of which are the most
destroyed by smart bombs and cruise missiles. And a military attack against Iran could convince it that it needs nukes more than ever before. In truth,
undemocratic regimes in the Arab world. A nuclear-armed Iran could also suck away resources from the U.S. pivot to East Asia. But the U.S. policy of prevention also
Khamenei, an aging man set in his ways, but Iranian society has changed dramatically since 1979. Iranians want to rejoin the world their culture helped create. The Islamic
Republic might be ideological, but it is not irrational, and its own actions, including the pursuit of nuclear capability and support for the Syrian regime, are weakening it in
the long term. The Iranian regime is doing a good job of containing its influence all on its own. A nuclear-armed Iran is a dangerous possibility. But that should not distract
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A2 Venezuela Instability
Alt causes to Venezuelan instability
A- No political freedom or rights.
Kott 12 (Adam Kott, MA of Global Affairs Science, BA in International Affairs from GWU, fellow at the
Center for International Relations and Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Fall 2012, Assessing Whether Oil
Dependency in Venezuela Contributes to National Instability, Journal of Strategic Security, Volume 5
Number 3 Article 8, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1176&context=jss, Keerthi,
Acc 12/9/13)
Venezuela is not politically instable in the traditional sense. The country has regular elections
that are contested by various political parties. How- ever, the
structure is currently one of political asymmetry that encourages
either co-option or incendiary political rhetoric. Various indices rate the
country among the world's worst in terms of political freedoms. The
Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) 2011 Democracy Index ranks Venezuela 97th after taking into account
factors such as the electoral process, political participation, and civil
liberties. EIU also rates Venezuela "the worst offender" after Cuba in terms of freedom of the media.34 Reporters
Without Borders backs up this sentiment, ranking Venezuela 117th in the world in their 2011/2012 Press Freedoms Index.
Tied with Venezuela are a handful of other nations rarely lauded for
their freedoms: Cambodia, Fiji, Oman, and Zimbabwe. Nearly every index shows that political freedoms in
Venezuela have declined over the past decade. Freedom House's Freedom in the World 2012 is just another example:
Venezuela scores a 5 in both political rights and civil liberties. This ranking is down from 1999, when it scored a 4 in both
categories.35, 36 Though Freedom House may have designated Venezuela "partly free" before Chavez entered office, the
historical rankings show that the country has slipped even further during his presidency. Lastly, and perhaps most stark, is
Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, which measures the "perceived levels of public sector
Chavez came to power following an era of extremely uneven growth in Venezuela. In the decade before his presi- dency,
Venezuela experienced a growth rate of less than 1 percent six times.39 Chavez was able to capitalize off the antiestablishment senti- ments caused by the country's poor economic performance and created a "hyper presidential"
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C decline in PDVSA
Kott 12 (Adam Kott, MA of Global Affairs Science, BA in International Affairs from GWU, fellow at the
Center for International Relations and Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Fall 2012, Assessing Whether Oil
Dependency in Venezuela Contributes to National Instability, Journal of Strategic Security, Volume 5
Number 3 Article 8, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1176&context=jss, Keerthi,
Acc 12/9/13)
PDVSA's rising
inefficiency and debt threaten to permanently cripple Venezuela's oil
economy. Without this commod- ity, the country has little to fall back on and what little gains were
address the structural inequalities within the nation. Unfortunately,
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A2 Venezuela Economy
Many alternative causes to Venezuelas economy.
Bandow and Hidalgo 11 (Doug, Cato Senior Fellow, JD from Stanford
University, and Juan Carlos, Policy Analyst on Latin America at the Center for
Global Liberty and Prosperity, MA in International Commerce and Policy from
GMU, Defusing Venezuelas Nuclear Threat?, Keerthi, Accessed 8/30/13)
The countrys infrastructure is crumbling. Last April an offshore
drilling rig rented by PDVSA, Venezuelas state-owned oil company,
sank. The deal involved a questionable rental contract with former PDVSA
executives and the accident was never properly investigated. Earlier this year
power blackouts caused by a series of explosions at electrical plants
and inadequate maintenance at the Guri hydro-electrical dam forced
the government to impose electricity rationing. Venezuelas
transportation infrastructure is literally falling apart. The
government agency that manages the countrys food supply let
120,000 tons of imported food rot in port while its own supermarkets
suffered shortages of basic staples. Chvezs anti-business policies
discourage private investment. Although Caracas is a major oil supplier,
it cannot easily afford an expensive nuclear program. With the days of
skyrocketing oil prices over, at least in the foreseeable future, the
government faces serious financial difficulties.
In spite of Venezuela's vast oil wealth, the country faces a great deal of
economic instability. The most noticeable and damaging economic
mal- ady is inflation . Venezuela has the highest inflation rate in the
world , a staggering 28.9 percent.26 In fact, purchasing power has decreased by 15
percent since 2003, meaning citizens can now buy 15 percent less than they could in 1998.27 According to
the Index of Economic Freedom: "Venezuela
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scarce . A World Bank analysis posits that there are only six countries in the world
where it is worse to do business.29 In fact, Venezuela is ranked one of
the top two worst places in the world to get credit, pay taxes, or
receive investor pro- tection.30 Furthermore, many international investors have refrained from
entering the Venezuelan market due to Chavez's unpredictable nature. Since his first election in 1999, Chavez has
nationalized part or all of the oil, cement, steel, gold, and rice industries. The result of these national- izations remains
largely a mystery, as the government routinely releases economic data with little transparency. Overall, the country's
direct foreign
investment in Venezuela has decreased from $44 billion to $37.6 billion, a 14.5 percent
drop.31 As Chavez continues to nationalize industries and the government maintains intrusive policies, foreign
investment in Venezuela will continue to languish.
economy is beginning to feel the crunch of economic mismanagement. Since 2007,
country's
legislature has "limited involvement with any decision-making
regarding the fund, nor does it have an oversight role ."32 Over the last decade,
complete control over his country's SWF, as he appoints the SWF's leadership and the
Venezuela has become a heavily statist regime with severe regulatory restrictions and lit- tle history of private sector
crisis, Venezuela witnessed local debts rise, infla- tion, exchange rate distortions, consumer good shortages, and the flight
of foreign direct investment.33 The Chavez government failed to pass any serious austerity measures, as spending cuts
would adversely impact his vital support base, the country's lowest classes.
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A2 Venezuela Proliferation
Venezuela Prolif not a threatA. Severe energy shortages, time, investment, tech and
science
Bandow and Hidalgo 11 (Doug, Cato Senior Fellow, JD from Stanford
University, and Juan Carlos, Policy Analyst on Latin America at the Center for
Global Liberty and Prosperity, MA in International Commerce and Policy from
GMU, Defusing Venezuelas Nuclear Threat?, Keerthi, Accessed 8/30/13)
Venezuelas close relationship with Iran and plans to build nuclear
facilities with Russian help are raising fears in Washington of
another nuclear crisis. The incoming Republican House majority may place increased pressure
on the Obama administration to confront Caracas. Washington need not panic. A Chavez
bomb is but a distant possibility and much will happen in Venezuela
in the meantime. The U.S. should work with other interested states to discourage Caracas from
pursuing nuclear weapons. Venezuela suffers from severe energy shortages
primarily due to the Chavez governments mismanagement and theres reason to doubt
Chvezs claim that his nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes. For one Chavezs arms
purchases far outstrip his nations security needs. Over the last decade Caracas has purchased fighters,
attack helicopters, antiaircraft missiles, and 100,000 assault rifles. Yet Venezuela has been at peace since
1823 and faces no external threats. Yet
nuclear weapons, its far from certain that Caracas will succeed. The
difficult process requires time, money, technology, and science.
Developing nuclear weapons is even harder in the face of
international opposition. Moreover, creating weapons of deliverable
size poses another significant challenge.
University, and Juan Carlos, Policy Analyst on Latin America at the Center for
Global Liberty and Prosperity, MA in International Commerce and Policy from
GMU, Defusing Venezuelas Nuclear Threat?, Keerthi, Accessed 8/30/13)
The countrys infrastructure is crumbling. Last April an offshore drilling
rig rented by PDVSA, Venezuelas state-owned oil company, sank. T he
deal involved a questionable rental contract with former PDVSA executives and the accident was never
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easily afford an expensive nuclear program. With the days of skyrocketing oil
prices over, at least in the foreseeable future, the government faces serious financial difficulties.
upcoming election should be Chavezs disastrous record. The less attention received by U.S. officials and
policy, the less blame Chavez can off-load on Washington, and the less he can claim that America poses a
threat. At the same time,
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A2 Particle Accelerators
Accelerators fail - - Engineering and construction
challenges.
Burrows 2008 (Philip Burrows, John Adams Institute, Oxford University,
Oxford, UK, Ph.D. in Particle Physics from Oxford, Fellow at the American
Physical Society, Engineering challenges of future particle accelerators,
Engineering and PhysicsSynergy for Success IOP Publishing,
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/105/1/012008/pdf/17426596_105_1_012008.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 10/13/13)
Abstract. Particle physics is on the threshold of major discoveries which will
shed light on the origin of mass, 'dark matter', and possible extra spatial dimensions in nature. Future
particle accelerators will recreate matter conditions not seen since the first
few billionths of a second after the Big Bang. The engineering challenges are
immense . 30km-long straight tunnels must be drilled to house the
accelerator, and components must be aligned and stabilised to
microns over distances of kilometers. High-power superconducting
niobium radio-frequency cavities will drive electron and positron
beams to velocities approaching the speed of light. The beams must
be made a few nanometers in size, and collided head-on after
traversing tens of kilometers. Feedback and control systems must
keep the beams in collision on nanosecond timescales.
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BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) is at risk: Their past successes were hyped
up,
graph belowstagnating economic freedom scores of the BRICs in The Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journals annual
Index of Economic Freedom. As Roubini notes, the biggest developing nations risk overturning the achievements of the
military-industrial complex, which resist transparency and privatization. Also, as Heritages Ariel Cohen reports,
Russian
the reason for sharp environmental deterioration and rural incomes falling far behind urban incomes.
marketing concoction by Goldman Sachs more than decade agois not important, the policies of large developing
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economies are. The warnings of the 2013 Index of Economic Freedom about stagnating economic freedom in the BRICs
(and elsewhere) are very clearand disturbing. Thankfully, the Index also includes a roadmap for the BRICs and others on
how to return to the path to growth.
Scenario 1 is Hegemony:
BRIC economic control displaces US hegemony and
unipolarity
Global Research News 13 (Center for Research on Globalization, 4/3/13, BRICS
Challenges Unipolar World and US Dollar Hegemony, http://www.globalresearch.ca/brics-challengesunipolar-world-and-us-dollar-hegemony/5329590, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi, acronyms: BRICS- Brazil,
Russia, India, China, South Africa Union)
The BRICS just became impossible to ignore . At the close of the Fifth annual BRICS Summit in Durban,
South Africa last week, there was little question that this group of five fast-growing economies was
underwriting an overhaul of the global economic and political order.
The eThekwini Declaration issued at summits end was couched in non-confrontational language, but it was manifestly clear that western hegemony and unipolarity were
development in Africa a resource-rich continent where competing economic interests have drawn increasingly polarized geopolitical battle lines in the past few years. The
BRICS were invited to the African table via their newest member state, South Africa, and have used this opportunity to fully back the African Union (AU). The AU has been
Africas attempt to integrate and unify the continent economically - via the establishment of a single currency and development fund that could bypass the very punishing
IMF and militarily via the establishment of security/defense organizations and joint military forces, among other things. AU success would necessarily mean less oldstyle western imperialism in the region, reducing exploitative foreign economic activities and excluding foreign forces like the US militarys African Command (AFRICOM)
Durban summit therefore was not going to ignore the two most prominent issues on UN Security Councils docket Syria and Iran. Last week, the BRICS collectively
rejected any further militarization of these problems, advocated political solutions negotiated through diplomatic initiatives, expressed concern over unilateral sanctions
and warned against infringement on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of these nations. The eThekwini Declaration says about Iran: We believe there is no
alternative to a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. We recognize Irans right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy consistent with its international obligations,
and support resolution of the issues involved through political and diplomatic means and dialogue. And on Syria, the BRICS fully backed the Geneva principles as the
framework for resolving the two-year conflict: We believe that the Joint Communiqu of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for resolution of the Syrian crisis and
reaffirm our opposition to any further militarization of the conflict. A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be achieved only through broad national
dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by
the Geneva Joint Communiqu and appropriate UNSC resolutions. The BRICS positions on Iran and Syria cannot, however, be viewed solely within the parameters of the
summits declaration. For starters, the statement is nothing new the BRICS have been advocating these points in some form or another since they issued their first
foreign policy communiqu in November 2011. To understand the depth and breadth of commitment behind these Mideast stances, one needs to look beyond the
sanitized, diplomat-speak of the summit environment. India, Brazil and South Africa, for instance, dont offer up much commentary on Syria and Iran they leave that to
their UNSC permanent-member colleagues in Russia and China, who are the BRICS front-men on these issues. Earlier in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited
Moscow on his first foreign trip as head of state, and told audiences there: We must respect the right of each country in the world to independently choose its path of
development and oppose interference in the internal affairs of other countries. A clear warning against aggressive western interventionism, Xis visit with Russias
Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of their strategic partnership in geopolitical affairs. On Syria, in particular, Russia has taken the BRICS lead with the blessing
of its fellow members including China so Moscows view of the situation is a critical one to analyze. The Russians have recently released a concept paper on the
importance of their participation in the BRICS a view that is likely to reflect similar priorities at the highest levels of fellow member states. BRICS drawing red lines
the obsolete international financial and economic architecture which does not take into account the increased economic power of emerging market economies and
, a simultaneous rebalancing of
political power worldwide must also occur. Moscow believes that the BRICS can
potentially become a key element of a new system of global
governance primarily in the financial and economic areas. At the
same time, the Russian Federation stands in favor of positioning
BRICS in the world system as a new model of global relations,
overarching the old dividing lines between East and West, and North
and South. Its a bold new world , but theres real value in some of the old ways. For one, the BRICS are big proponents
of the Rule of Law in global affairs, concepts the West often tosses around, but rarely
developing countries. But for fundamental economic shifts to take place
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Keerthi Gondi
TTIP negotiations
will focus on the key issues that include market access and
regulatory rules, non-tariff barriers, and market rules. Agreements
between the US and Europe on technical standards will have a
significant impact on the world economy, as they will in effect
become new international standards. If agreement is reached, TTIP will
become the base of new international trade and investment rules,
thereby affecting the entire global regulatory process . Together with the
mirrors the US strategy of returning to Asia. In addition to reducing tariffs,
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), the impact on China will be a significant increase in the cost of
participation in globalized markets. Theoretically it is impossible for TPP to exclude China, but because of
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Keerthi Gondi
The
result will be increased pressure on China, and China will once again
face remodeled western rivals. The challenge for Chinas strategic
wisdom will be whether it seeks to resolve the issue through focus
on the EU, on FTA, or on its economic relationships with the BRICS.
the narrow economic gap between the US and Europe, TTIP will be easier to achieve than TPP.
We live in a
time of arguably the greatest structural change in the global order
yet endured, with this historical moment's most amazing feature
being its relative and absolute lack of mass violence. That is something to consider when Americans
strategic incoherence -- in effect, a man overmatched by the job. It is worth first examining the larger picture:
contemplate military intervention in Libya, because if we do take the step to prevent larger-scale killing by engaging in some killing of our
own, we will not be adding to some fantastically imagined global death count stemming from the ongoing "megalomania" and "evil" of
American "empire." We'll be engaging in the same sort of system-administering activity that has marked our stunningly successful stewardship
state-based conflicts.
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Keerthi Gondi
expressed concern
over unilateral sanctions and warned against infringement on the
territorial integrity and sovereignty of these nations. The eThekwini
Declaration says about Iran: We believe there is no alternative to a
negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. We recognize Irans
right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy consistent with its
international obligations, and support resolution of the issues involved through political and
diplomatic means and dialogue. And on Syria, the BRICS fully backed the
Geneva principles as the framework for resolving the two-year
conflict: We believe that the Joint Communiqu of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for
resolution of the Syrian crisis and reaffirm our opposition to any further
militarization of the conflict. A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be
advocated political solutions negotiated through diplomatic initiatives,
achieved only through broad national dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of
Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by
communiqu in November 2011. To understand the depth and breadth of commitment behind these
Mideast stances, one needs to look beyond the sanitized, diplomat-speak of the summit environment.
India, Brazil and South Africa, for instance, dont offer up much commentary on Syria and Iran they leave
that to their UNSC permanent-member colleagues in Russia and China, who are the BRICS front-men on
these issues. Earlier in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow on his first foreign trip as head
of state, and told audiences there: We must respect the right of each country in the world to
independently choose its path of development and oppose interference in the internal affairs of other
countries. A clear warning against aggressive western interventionism, Xis visit with Russias Vladimir
On Syria, in
particular, Russia has taken the BRICS lead with the blessing of its
fellow members including China so Moscows view of the situation is a critical one to analyze.
Putin emphasized the importance of their strategic partnership in geopolitical affairs.
The Russians have recently released a concept paper on the importance of their participation in the BRICS
a view that is likely to reflect similar priorities at the highest levels of fellow member states.
347
Keerthi Gondi
Iran has
publicly stated that it seeks the peaceful development of nuclear
power, yet it continues to raise enrichment levels in its centrifuges
while increasing their number and preventing International Atomic
Energy Agency inspectors from inspecting suspected sites . Given the
East, yet it is believed to posses over 200 warheads with the required delivery systems.
importance of this issue in this region and the current political changes taking place there, I have written a
fuller Harvard paper that addresses the issue of establishing a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone, or
WMDFZ.
spying on such an unprecedented scope, its not hard to see why many view this alleged terror threat as a political stunt to vindicate the governments snooping. And
the prospect is
simply awfully ironic rather than plain and simple awful. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Snows piece has since been pulled from Channel 4s blog pages (but
can be found here.) It is clear that the world currently faces the slippery slope
to nuclear war and that further escalation of violence in Syria may
well develop into a proxy war between the US and Russia or
something much worse. As we commemorate the use of nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki the threat of
nuclear war looms over the planet. Perhaps now more than ever men of violence need to be opposed by men of peace.
available, advocating the use of nuclear and chemical weapons in the name of human rights and freedom in the world. To Snow,
A2 Climate Treaties
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internationally has declared war against the public sector via massive privatization schemes that
detriment of the environment. Addressing climate change will take a monumental largely unprofitable
produce a comprehensive and ambitious world climate agreement. The Durban declarations envisaged the adoption of a
global climate treaty by the end of 2015 and its entry into force in 2020. It would include reduction targets for countries
that had previously blocked international climate protection agreements, such as India, China, and the USA, and a 2
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Keerthi Gondi
We need to
convince politicians in Washington, D.C., that they have an obligation to future generations.
Eric Pooleys 2010 book, The Carbon War, shows how the 2009 Copenhagen
conference failed because the global warming legislation then under
consideration in the U.S. Congress was dead in the water. A new
treaty wont come into being if the United States fails to make the
concessions that would allow the worlds poor countries to view an
accord as fair. Action in Congress is essential to break a deadlock in
negotiations.
than three years away. The Citizens Climate Lobby has the only viable strategy:
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Keerthi Gondi
A2 OAS
OAS fails to solve key issue, wastes time on irrelevant
topic and fails to respect human rights
Ros-Lehtinen 2013 (July 24th 2013, Ros-Lehtinen is a congresswoman
representing Floridas 27th district, Cuban Immigrant with a Masters and
Doctorate in Education, http://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/about-me/full-biography
accessed 11/7)
I would like to commend my dear friend Senators Menendez and Rubio who along with Senators Corker
and Udall brought forth an important bipartisan bill to reform a wasted agency which is the Organization of
American States.
OAS met regarding Edward Snowden and the Evo Morales plane, and the Secretary General issued a press
release stating: It is very clear that this is an event that goes beyond the explanations that have been
given hereThe incident leaves a wound and the best way to heal that wound, to mend that wound, is to
know what really happened, what really took place. What a waste! What about the illegitimate elections in
Venezuela? What about the illegitimate elections in Nicaragua? Are we to expect a similar statement
calling for investigations regarding the North Korean flagged ship that left from Cuba to North Korea with
missile equipment, in clear violation of several UN Security Council resolutions? And we thank the
Government of Panama for stopping that illicit shipment. What about the continued human rights abuses
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/us-americas-summit-obamaidUSBRE83F0UD20120417 11/7)
Also signals a further weakening of the already strained hemispheric
system of diplomacy, built around the Organization of American
States (OAS) which has struggled to remain relevant during a time of
rapid change for its members. Seen as an instrument of U.S. policy
in Latin America during the Cold War, the OAS has lost ground in a
region that is no longer content with being the backyard of the
United States. "It seems the United States still wants to isolate us from the world, it thinks it can
still manipulate Latin America, but that's ending," said Bolivian President Evo Morales, a fierce critic of U.S.
policy in Latin America and staunch ally of Venezuela's leftist leader Hugo Chavez. " What
I think is
that this is a rebellion of Latin American countries against the
United States."
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Keerthi Gondi
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/us-americas-summit-obamaidUSBRE83F0UD20120417 11/7)
The stark divide over Cuba - with 32 nations in favor of inviting it to
future summits and only the United States and Canada opposed will fuel arguments that the OAS is an outdated institution for
regional diplomacy. The OAS already faces competition from
alternative forums such as the Union of South American nations
(Unasur) and the Chavez-backed Community of Latin American and
Caribbean states (Celac). Despite the new winds blowing in regional diplomacy, economics is
driving the changes as much as politics. Once seen as monolithic block of basket-case economies
dependent on U.S. support, Latin American countries are coveted investment destinations with
sophisticated financial systems that have innovated in areas ranging from energy to aviation.
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Keerthi Gondi
A2 CELAC
CELAC fails due to fundamental structural problems
Andrea Mares 2011 (December 7,2011, Council on Hemispheric affairs
research assistant, BIG HOPES FOR CELAC, BUT LITTLE OUTCOME (AT LEAST
FOR NOW) http://www.coha.org/big-hopes-for-celac-but-little-outcome-atleast-for-now/ accessed on 11/7)
At CELACs first summit, Hugo Chavez declared that a Troika (trio) of countries would lead
the organization. This body is to be made up of the country hosting
the current summit, the country that will host the next summit and
the country that had staged the previous summit. As of now, the Troika is
composed of Chile, Venezuela and Cuba. The idea of a cluster of countries may work well in theory since it
continually will depend upon the three to work in harmony in spite of ideological cross currents; such
cooperation will circulate a reality that the host countries at a given summit hold a significant amount of
power, and if every country eventually takes turn being a host, all of them will get a chance to be a leader,
and because of the investiture of sober attention, can only attribute importance to its membership.
However, in reality,
the first summit Trinidad and Tobago pointed out that there were no countries in the Troika from the
Caribbean. Without a leadership position in the Troika, how can these countries have any effective
representation? Not only is there now great diversity among the countries in terms of location, but also in
terms of how much disposable power they collectively, as well as individually, hold .
This disregard
for how much individual weight certain countries carry allowed for
major players, such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, to realize that
they will have only a limited voice at CELAC gatherings until it is
their turn to host a summit event. Enraged by this idea, Brazil,
Mexico and Argentina did not participate in day two of the summit . As
of now, some would have you believe that CELAC is nothing more than a seemingly
anti-American organization that has failed to create a secretariat or
anything else that could allow it to be a legitimate institution with concrete functions and a hand book of
responsibility. There also remains the factor of whether its destiny is to lack the proper representation of all
flowery letter from sickbed, Venezuela's Chavez calls for regional unity
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Because those armies dont overthrow their governments. We have not even had an
attempted military coup in Mexico since 1938. An old, distinguished Mexican politician, Jess Reyes Heroles, who in the
1960s was head of Pemex, the stateowned oil company, once told me that one day there was a riot somewhere in the
country, and the minister of defense came to him and said, I need more gas for my trucks. Mr. Reyes Heroles refused, so
the minister of defense went to complain to the president about why he couldnt have any more gas for his trucks. The
president then called the head of Pemex and asked him about the situation. Mr. Reyes Heroles said, Look, Mr. President,
Ill do whatever you want, but standing orders here in Pemex are never to give the army more than two days of gasoline.
war because thats not its business. Therefore, you have an army
that is totally unprepared to fight a war against drug cartels . The second
question is who else could be fighting this war if we dont have an effective army? What about the police ? The
problem is that Mexico doesnt have a national police force like Chile or
Colombia. We have county and state police. Each of the 2,500 counties and 32 states in
Mexico has its own police force, and they are the ones fighting the war on drugs. The
problem is that local policemen go through an identity crisis every day regarding who
they work for. Do they work for the drug cartels or the citizens of the country? They work for the drug
cartels and everybody in Mexico knows that. Clearly, you cant ask them to fight
the drug cartels because they are part of the drug cartels. Therefore,
Mexico has an army which is not ready to fight a war on drugs, and
a police force that is not willing to do so. The remaining alternative
is the United States, but that option is quite complicated.
Historically,
Mexico has always wanted U.S. support for law-enforcement efforts, and the United States has been willing to give us such
support, but
we want it on our terms, not on U.S. terms. And, since approximately the
the United States has placed a series of restrictions on
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two things, knowing full well that those are impossible . One is
reducing the demand for drugs . It is well known that U.S. demand for drugs over the past 40
years has remained pretty much stable, although the types of drugs consumed have changed: marijuana was the drug of
the 1960s and 1970s, cocaine and crack were the drugs of the 1990s, and methamphetamine is the drug of the first
decade of the 21st century. However, the overall number of users has remained pretty much the same. I f
the
United States hasnt been able to reduce drug consumption in 40
years, its very unlikely that it will be able to do it now. The second
request to the U.S. government is to stop the traffic of weapons
from the United States to Mexico
of the former Soviet Union, and beyond. And as countries as diverse as Brazil, Paraguay, Somalia, and Sudan attest
all countries with a higher arms per capita than Mexico you dont need a border with
the United States to gain easy access to guns. Nevertheless, the possibilities of really limiting the sales of weapons in the
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Keerthi Gondi
A2 PDVSA
Alt causes to why PDVSA failsA- Oil strikes and brain drain from 2002-2003 which still
cripple the industry
Kott 12 (Adam Kott, MA of Global Affairs Science, BA in International Affairs from GWU, fellow at the
Center for International Relations and Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Fall 2012, Assessing Whether Oil
Dependency in Venezuela Contributes to National Instability, Journal of Strategic Security, Volume 5
Number 3 Article 8, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1176&context=jss, Keerthi,
Acc 12/9/13)
Over the past few years the government has instituted rolling blackouts in order to conserve power. This
policy has hurt small and large businesses alike. On numerous occasions
PDVSA's oil
refineries have lost power and been forced to shut down. Even
temporary hiccups such as this can seriously hamper a national
economy that is so dependent on one good.
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has made it clear that he wishes to diversify oil exports and decrease the role
that the United States has as a trade partner, he has yet to come up with a serious
alternative. The Venezuelan President has repeatedly said that he wishes to increase oil trade with China,
but this appears an unrealistic venture. China has limited refinery capacity, lim- ited
access to petroleum due to its proximity to Russia and Central Asia,
and brings with it prohibitively high transportation costs of moving
oil around the Strait of Magellan or Cape Horn.
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A2 PEMEX
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1NC
Status quo reforms solve
ONeil 12/12/13 (Shannon K. ONeil, senior fellow for Latin America
Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, BA from Yale University, an MA in
international relations, and a PhD in government from Harvard University ,
Mexicos Historic Energy Reform,
http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/12/12/mexicos-historic-energy-reform, Keerthi,
Acc 12/13/13)
Listening to the fireworks for the Virgen de Guadalupe last night from my hotel room in Mexico City,
one could have mistaken them for the tumult occurring at the same time in the House of
Representatives. Right before midnight, the representatives passed, by a two-thirds majority,
the principles of energy reform (following the Senates approval earlier
in the day). Today they hammered out the final details , making a historic
change to Mexicos energy sector, a political sacred cow, by
opening it up to the broader world of investment . The constitutional
reforms still need to be approved by seventeen of Mexicos thirty-two state Congresses, but with twentyfive PRI or PAN governors this seems very likely to occur smoothly . The reform
does many things: It establishes different types of possible
contracts : service contracts, profit sharing, production sharing, and licensing (where a firm would pay taxes and royalties
in exchange for exploration and drilling rights).
Petroleum Fund , which will manage the countrys oil revenues. The Fund
will allocate the appropriate amount of money to cover the national budget and invest the rest in long term savings. The Bank of Mexico will oversee
the fund.
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Petroleos Mexicanos admits that "serious" corruption exists in some areas of the
company and that contracting processes in particular have been plagued by "interference from
organized crime,"
a leading Mexican daily said Friday. In a front-page story, El Universal said Pemex representatives and members of the
Mexican Construction Industry Chamber drew that conclusion at a meeting in late April. Pemex
to El Universal, during the meeting with construction industry executives, Pemex officials said
there was "interference from organized crime" in the state oil monopoly's contracting processes.
That has led to "serious levels of corruption " within some Pemex segments, and company
executives acknowledge they have not been able to put a halt to that activity, in part because many
cases "have become lost in the courts."
the government refuses to let it make its own decisions. Its boss is appointed by the
president, the energy minister chairs its board of directors, and the finance ministry vets its
budget, line by line. The board has no independent directors and lacks business expertise , says a
former chief executive. He notes, for example, that more than 20 years ago the board began benchmarking Pemexs refineries against international
peers, but they have remained at the bottom of the league even as parts of Mexicos manufacturing industry have become models of efficiency.
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B solves economy
Williams et al. 12/13/13 (Adam Williams, Eric Martin and Nacha Cattan,
Mexico Passes Oil Bill Seen Luring $20 Billion a Year,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-12/mexico-lower-house-passes-oiloverhaul-to-break-state-monopoly.html, Keerthi, Acc 12/13/13)
The reform will energize Mexicos economy , Carlos Capistran, chief Mexico
economist at Bank of America Corp., said in a telephone interview yesterday. Congress was able to pass a
Producers will be offered productionsharing contracts or licenses where they get to own the pumped oil
and will be allowed to log crude reserves for accounting purposes.
better-than-expected constitutional reform.
Photographer: Susana Gonzalez/Bloomberg Workers prepare drilling pipe on the Petroleos Mexicanos
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offshore, Ed Morse, the New York-based head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in a
phone interview. Realistically, it could double the amount of oil that Mexico
produces. Mexicos oil production has fallen 25 percent to 2.5
million barrels per day from a high of 3.3 million in 2004, according data from Pemex. Should
Mexican output reach 4 million barrels daily by 2025, it could surpass Canada to
become the worlds fifth-largest producer , given current production levels.
Natural gas production would almost double to as much as 10.4 billion
cubic feet by 2025 from current output of 5.7 billion feet, according to the bill. The initiative could push
Mexico to become one of the top-five crude exporting countries in the world and a natural gas exporter,
Morse said. Pena Nietos government forecasts the initiative will attract investment and spur production
that will boost Mexicos annual gross domestic product growth by 1 percentage point by 2018. The Finance
Ministry projects the economy will expand 1.3 percent this year, down from 3.9 percent in each of the past
two years and the least since the 2009 recession.
More ev
Fausset 12/11/13 (Richard Fausset, Mexico's Senate passes sweeping
A2 US Agriculture
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1NC
US agriculture strong now soybeans and wheat proves.
Dreibus 11/8/13 (Tony C. Dreibus, USDA data not as negative,
http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/usda-data-not-asnegative_9-ar35279, Keerthi, Acc 11/8/13)
The U.S. D epartment of A griculture raised its forecast for domestic corn and soybean
production this year in its first supply-and-demand report since
September. U.S. growers will produce 13.989 billion bushels of corn this
year on yields of 160.4 bushels per acre, the agency said Friday in its monthly crop report. That
would be the highest production of corn on record, surpassing the 13.1 billion bushel
harvest in 2009. November's figure was slightly below analysts' expectations of 14.022 billion bushels on yields of 159.43 bushels per acre, according to a Wall
Street Journal survey. The USDA's corn-production forecast was 1% higher than its previous
estimate . The USDA forecast soybean production will total 3.258 billion bushels this year on yields of 43 bushels per acre. Analysts had expected 3.225
billion bushels from a yield of 42.5 bushels per acre. The agency's November soybean estimate was 3% higher from its previous forecast. The U.S. is
the world's largest exporter of corn and second-largest shipper of
soybeans. Analysts are watching the crop-production report and the agency's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates closely because they are the
first figures released since September. Last month's reports were canceled due to the 16-day partial government shutdown that started Oct. 1. "Wet
weather across much of the corn belt affected harvest progress" in early
October, the USDA said in its report. "However, by the third week of the month , the crop began to make headway."
Good weather allowed producers to harvest 73% of the crop by Nov. 3, two percentage points
ahead of the five-year average, the USDA said. The agency also raised its estimates for the
amount of corn, soybeans and wheat stockpiles at the end of the
2013/2014 marketing year. Corn stocks are expected to total 1.887 billion bushels, the USDA said. That was lower than analyst expectations of 2.056 billion
bushels but slightly higher than the agency's September forecast. Harvested acres of soybeans are expected to total 170 million bushels, the USDA said, compared with
analysts' estimates of 183 million bushels.
Wheat stockpiles at the end of the marketing year will be 565 million bushels, the USDA said,
rise to 164.33 million metric tons, up from 151.42
compared with 527 million the analysts predicted. Meanwhile, the USDA said it expects global corn stockpiles to
million it forecast in September. Analysts expected 154.8 million metric tons.
especially bees, for a successful harvest . And in the past several months, a scramble in
Californias almond groves has given the world a taste of what may lie in store for food production if the widespread
beekeepers, primarily in
have been reporting annual hive losses of 30
percent or higher, substantially more than is considered normal or sustainable. But this winter,
many U.S. beekeepers experienced losses of 40 to 50 percent or more,
and still puzzling decimation of bee colonies continues. For much of the past 10 years,
the United States and Europe,
just as commercial bee operations prepared to transport their hives for the countrys largest pollinator event: the
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together the In the long run, if we don't find some answers, we could lose a lot of bees, says one expert. necessary
number of healthy bee colonies. Other crops dont need as many bees as the California almond orchards do, so shortages
are not yet apparent, but if trends continue, there will be, said Tim Tucker, vice-president of the American Beekeeping
Federation and owner of Tuckerbees Honey in Kansas, which lost 50 percent of its hives this past winter. Current
[bee] losses are not sustainable. The trend is down, as is the quality
of bees. In the long run, if we dont find some answers, and the vigor continues to decline, we could lose a lot of
bees. The gravity of the situation was underscored on Monday, when the European Commission (EC) said it intended to
impose a two-year ban on a class of pesticides known as neonicotinoids, now the worlds most widely used type of
three major neonicitinoids on seeds and plants attractive to bees, as well as grains, beginning December 1. I pledge to
Honeybees are
brought in to pollinate onion crops at a California farm. In the U.S., several
collapse disorder is not significantly affecting hives there. University of California
national environmental advocacy organizations and commercial beekeepers filed suit in March against the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for its conditional registration of certain neonicotinoids, contending that the
agency did not properly ensure environmental health protections, particularly with respect to pollinators. The EPA is now
reviewing its registration of neonicotinoids and has accelerated the review schedule due to uncertainties about these
pesticides and their potential effects on bees. The agency said in an email that it is working with beekeepers, growers,
pesticide manufacturers, and others to improve pesticide use, labeling, and management practices to protect bees and to
thoroughly evaluate the effects of pesticides on honeybees and other pollinators. As part of these efforts, the EPA is
working with pesticide and agricultural equipment manufacturers to reduce the release of neonicotinoid-contaminated
dust during planting a time when commercial bees are likely to encounter the insecticide. In the U.S., neonicotinoids
are currently used on about 95 percent of corn and canola crops; the majority of cotton, sorghum, and sugar beets; and
about half of all soybeans. Theyre also used on the vast majority of fruit and vegetable crops, including apples, cherries,
peaches, oranges, berries, leafy greens, tomatoes, and potatoes. Neonicotinoids are also applied to cereal grains, rice,
nuts, and wine grapes. Charles Benbrook, research professor at Washington State Universitys Center for Sustaining
Agriculture and Natural Resources, has estimated that neonicotinoids are used on approximately 75 percent of the acres
devoted to these crops in the U.S. They are also widely used on landscaping plants and urban trees and in numerous
There is no
place to go hide, says New York beekeeper Jim Doan, a director of the American
Beekeeping Federation. The outlook is not good.
home garden pest-control products all in places frequented by bees, domesticated and wild.
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2NC Alt Cause Bees
Green 13 (Miranda Green, May 8 2013, Declining bee populations may lead to significant
agricultural losses in U.S., http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/08/declining-bee-populationsmay-lead-to-significant-agricultural-losses-in-u-s.html, Keerthi, Acc 11/8/13)
production. The loss of honey bees across the country could mean
dramatic changes to crops and the work of farmers. Almond farms in California are especially
reliant on bee pollination. The Agriculture Department estimates that insect-pollination directly
contributes $20 billion to the U.S. economy annually. The same study says that if indirect products such as milk and
beef, which are created by cows that feed on crops that in turn rely on pollination, were to be included, bees economic contribution would rise
to $40 billion.
, with bees producing less honey than they have in
previous years, according to USDA data. The Agriculture Department estimates that insect-pollination directly contributes $20 billion to the
U.S. economy annually.
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EU Relations Impacts
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1AC
The transatlantic partnership is at a crossroads- economic
improvements is the only way to effective utilize relations
and overcome all alternate causes.
Mix 13 (Derek E., FAS Analyst in European Affairs and researcher at the
Congressional Research Service, 3/20/13, The United States and Europe:
Current Issues, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22163.pdf, Accessed
8/12/13, Keerthi)
Polls show that President Obama remains popular in Europe, and European perceptions of U.S. foreign policy have improved significantly
marshal resources for the mission in Afghanistan, or attempting to agree on a new international climate change treaty, to name but three
more multipolar world, signaled by the advent of the G-20 and the rise of the BRICs, foretells a future of declining Euro-Atlantic influence.4
wind up in the years to come. Some observers assert that the relationship is an increasingly utilitarian one, based more on function and less
on sentiment. In other words, U.S. interest in Congressional Research Service 2 The United States and Europe: Current Issues Europe is
now mainly driven by whether Europe can be an effective partner in addressing common threats and concerns. Those of this view worry that
On the other hand, in a speech at the 2013 Munich Security Conference, Vice President Biden
stated, ... President Obama and I continue to believe that Europe is the cornerstone of our engagement with the rest of the world and is the
catalyst for our global cooperation.5 Many analysts maintain that Europe is, firstly, an important U.S. ally precisely because the substance of
the relationship is deep and meaningful. Examples of close and unique U.S.-European cooperation are not lacking; many analysts cite Europes
contributions to operations in Afghanistan, joint efforts to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia, the 2011 NATO operation against the forces
of Muammar al-Gadhafi in Libya, the expansion of EU sanctions on Iran, or the dimensions of the transatlantic trade and investment
relationship as proof of the continuing and deep vitality of the transatlantic partnership. Less tangibly, however, many analysts also assert that
Europe will continue to matter to the United States because, if nothing else, common values, shared history, and compatible worldviews still
matter, too. Nevertheless, many observers agree that
global actor and a close U.S. partner over the longer term, it needs
to urgently re-discover ways to increase economic dynamism and
competitiveness ; commit to deeper initiatives for pooling defense resources in order to gain capabilities and efficiency;
and emphasize the further development of soft power strategies that
project influence through the attractiveness of European political, cultural, and economic values. Some also assert that it is essential for
Europe to increasingly speak and act as one on foreign policy and security issues if it is to maintain global influence. On many such issues,
however, the EU and its member states continue to find consensus difficult to reach. While many U.S. officials support the development of a
more robust and coherent EU foreign and security policy, there also remain some reservations in the United States about a future scenario in
which the EU is more unified and assertive in these areas, including with respect to the potential implications for NATO.
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billion. EU investment in the United States is eight times the amount of European investment in India and China combined.
The total stock of investment in both directions is over $3.7 trillion (for comparison, Polands GDP in 2012 was just under
$530 billion). The gains are potentially great. The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) would
create the largest single market in the world, encompassing 830 million consumers and one-third of global trade. It would
add a percentage point to world economic output, with most of the gains in the United States and the EU about $700 to
the annual income of the average EU household, and $840 to its American counterpart.
show the member states that the Commission is still in the driving seat. And by nudging up economic
growth,
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the
If the
make it their top political, diplomatic and economic priority in the coming year. They
team players good Europeans and good Atlanticists. Clearly they cannot please everyone all the time, but on issues where common sense suggests the American side is
likely to make concessions (such as on digital copyright rules and data) they should push the EU to be tough. On issues where Europe has to give ground (services
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drawdowns are proceeding, as of early December 2012 the NATO-led International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF)
for security to Afghan leadership, with Afghan forces leading in all functions and operations by the end of
2014. This transition process also defines the timetable for withdrawing the vast majority of NATO forces
partnership agreements with Afghanistan that outline military training and economic development
commitments beyond 2014. Nevertheless, given Europes economic difficulties and the sense of
Afghanistan fatigue felt by many Europeans, the depth of the overall European commitment after the
2014 withdrawal date is uncertain.
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A guarantee of territorial integrity would mean that any efforts to break up Afghanistan would be met with a multilateral response. For Pakistan, the best buffer is a
territorially secure, independent state that is proxy to no one.
smaller, regional nuclear wars could create a similar global catastro- phe. New analyses reveal that a
conflict be- tween India and Pakistan, for example, in which 100 nuclear
bombs were dropped on cities and industrial areas only 0.4
percent of the worlds more than 25,000 warheadswould produce
enough smoke to cripple global agriculture. A regional war could
cause widespread loss of life even in countries far away from the
conflict. Regional War Threatens the World By deploying modern computers and modern
cli- mate models, the two of us and our colleagues have shown that not only were the ideas of the 1980s correct but the effects would last for at
Why discuss this topic now that the cold war has ended? Because as other nations continue to acquire nuclear weapons,
least 10 years, much longer than previously thought. And by doing calculations that assess decades of time, only now possible with fast, current computers, and by
U.K. have hundreds of nuclear warheads; Israel has more than 80, North Korea has about 10 and Iran may well be trying to make its own. In 2004 this situation prompted
one of us (Toon) and later Rich Turco of the University of California, Los Angeles, both veterans of the 1980s investiga- tions, to begin evaluating what the global environmental effects of a regional nuclear war would be and to take as our test case an engage- ment between India and Pakistan. The latest estimates by David Albright of
the Institute for Science and International Security and by Robert S. Norris of the Natural Resourc- es Defense Council are that India has 50 to 60 assembled weapons (with
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Pakistan and if 50 similar bombs were also dropped across In- dia. Some
people maintain that nuclear weapons would be used in only a measured way. But in the wake of chaos, fear and
broken communications that would occur once a nuclear war began,
we doubt leaders would limit attacks in any rational manner . This likelihood is
particularly true for Pakistan, which is small and could be quickly overrun in a conventional conflict. Peter R. La- voy of the Naval Postgraduate School, for exam- ple, has
analyzed the ways in which a conflict be- tween India and Pakistan might occur and ar- gues that Pakistan could face a decision to use all its nuclear arsenal quickly before
India swamps its military bases with traditional forces. Obviously, we hope the number of nuclear targets in any future war will be zero, but policy makers and voters
that actually did burn in Hiroshima and as- suming an amount of burnable material per per- son based on various studies. They calculated that the 50 bombs exploded in
Pakistan would produce three teragrams of smoke, and the 50 bombs hitting India would generate four (one teragram equals a million metric tons). Satellite observations
the atmosphere)
(the layer just above, extending
to about 30 miles). Toon and Turco also did some back of the en- velope calculations of the possible climate im- pact of the smoke should it enter the stratosphere. The
large magnitude of such effects made them realize they needed help from a climate modeler. It turned out that one of us (Robock) was already working with Luke Oman,
now at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, who was finishing his Ph.D. at Rutgers University on the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, and with Georgiy L.
Stenchikov, also at Rutgers and an author of the first Russian work on nuclear winter. They developed a climate model that could be used fairly easily for the nuclear blast
calculations. Robock and his colleagues, being conserva- tive, put five teragrams of smoke into their mod- eled upper troposphere over India and Pakistan on an
ticles very slowly settle out by falling, with air resisting them. Soot particles are small, with an average diameter of only 0.1 micron (m), and so drift down very slowly.
They also rise during the daytime as they are heated by the sun, re- peatedly delaying their elimination. The calcu- lations showed that the smoke would reach far higher
into the upper stratosphere than the sul- fate particles that are produced by episodic vol- canic eruptions. Sulfate particles are transparent and absorb much less sunlight
Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), lasted for several years, and even after 10 years the temperature was still 0.5 degree C colder than normal. The models also showed a 10
however, because global cooling would retard the Hadley air cir- culation pattern in the tropics, which produces a large fraction of global precipitation. In criti- cal areas
eruptions produce temporary cooling for a year or two. The largest of the past 500 years, the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia, blotted the sun and produced global
cooling of about 0.5 de- gree C for a year; 1816 became known as The Year without a Summer or Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death. In New England, although the
average summer temperature was lowered only a few degrees, crop-killing frosts occurred in every month. After the first frost, farmers re- planted crops, only to see them
killed by the next frost. The price of grain skyrocketed, the price of livestock plummeted as farmers sold the animals they could not feed, and a mass migration began from
New England to the Midwest, as people fol- lowed reports of fertile land there. In Europe the weather was so cold and gloomy that the stock market collapsed, widespread
famines occurred and 18-year-old Mary Shelley was inspired to write Frankenstein. Certain strains of crops, such as winter wheat, can withstand lower temperatures, but
a lack of sunlight inhibits their ability to grow. In our scenario, daylight would filter through the high smoky haze, but on the ground every day would seem to be fully
overcast. Agronomists and farmers could not develop the necessary seeds or adjust agricultural practices for the rad- ically different conditions unless they knew ahead of
Robocks but found similar results for smoke lofting and stratospheric temperature changes. He concluded that although surface temperatures would cool by a small
sunlight and precipitation, cold spells, shorter growing seasons and more ultraviolet ra- diation would all reduce or eliminate agricultur- al production. Notably, cooling and
ozone loss would be most profound in middle and high lat- itudes in both hemispheres, whereas precipita- tion declines would be greatest in the tropics. The specific
damage inflicted by each of these environmental changes would depend on partic- ular crops, soils, agricultural practices and re- gional weather patterns, and no
two months [see Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civiliza- tion? by Lester R. Brown; Scientific Ameri- can, May]. Most cities and countries have stock- piled food
supplies for just a very short period, and food shortages (as well as rising prices) have increased in recent years
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trigger declines in yield nearly everywhere at once, and a worldwide panic could bring the
glob- al agricultural trading system to a halt, with se- vere shortages in many places. Around one billion people worldwide who
now live on marginal food supplies would be directly threatened with star- vation by a nuclear war
between India and Paki- stan or between other regional nuclear powers.
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Afghan Instability UQ
1) Their ev is horrible and assumes US involvement--drawout of US forces probably means the area will
become more stable.
2) Afghanistan stable now but regional actors are key to
prevent fall-back. (also says Taliban wont come-back).
Vershbow, 2012, (Alexander, NATO DSG Ambassador, 11/12, Today the
Taliban are weak, scattered, and demoralized, says NATO DSG Vershbow
http://www.diplonews.com/feeds/free/12_November_2012_8.php, DOAL
6/16/13
It is a great pleasure to be with you today, and to share the NATO perspective with such distinguished
panel members. I look forward to profiting from their views, as well as from yours. I feel a special
attachment to the Central Asia region, in part because I began my career as a lowly Second Secretary at
the US Embassy in Moscow. I was there when the Soviet Unions invasion of Afghanistan rocked its
relationship with the West. When the Soviets withdrew in 1989, the logic of the Cold War led us to believe
that we had won. The fall of the Berlin Wall strengthened that belief. As all eyes focused on events in
Europe, the international community forgot about Afghanistan. The country became a failed state and a
sanctuary for extremism and international terrorism, with terrible consequences that we experienced on
9/11 along with the horrors that befell the Afghan people under the Taliban regime. Today I can affirm
NATO, as part of the international community, has learned the lessons of the
1990s. We remain committed to Afghanistan, and to helping Afghans build a
that
peaceful, stable, and secure future. The NATO-led ISAF mission in Afghanistan is now nearly twelve years
old, and it is useful to take stock of what weve accomplished. In the blur of the daily news cycle, we
sometimes only hear about suicide bombings and insider attacks. Some commentators even imply that
after transition, the Taliban are destined to draw Afghans back into a natural state of extremism and
intolerance. This is a slur against the Afghans, and it also represents a misreading of Afghan history. We
forget that before communism and the Soviet invasion, Afghan cities bubbled with movie theatres, shiny
automobiles, and a prosperous middle class. Kabul was the center of a sophisticated and dynamic culture
country is not just dubious from a military perspective. It fails to recognise how Afghan society has
changed since the dark days of the mid-1990s. Kabul is once again a bustling metropolis of 5 million
people. We see levels of health care, education, and economic development that were unthinkable only ten
years ago. Eight million children go to school, over a third of them girls. The economy is growing at about
Afghan security forces are in the lead in providing security
for three quarters of the countrys population. In most of those areas, security is
6% a year.
stable or improving. By the end of 2014, the Afghan National Security Forces will be 352,000 strong and
will have full security responsibility across Afghanistan. Once the transition to full Afghan security
responsibility is complete, ISAFs combat mission will end. But NATOs commitment to Afghanistan will
continue. Last month, Allied Defence Ministers approved the framework for a new NATO-led mission that
will focus on providing training, advice and assistance to the Afghan Security Forces after 2014. This
training mission is NATOs pledge to Afghanistans future. Security, however, is only part of the problem,
keep the pledges they have made and continue to provide the reconstruction and development assistance
that Afghanistan needs, both now and beyond 2014. Fortunately, weve made a good start. Last July, in
Tokyo, countries around the world pledged their help looking well into the next decade. And the Kabul
Conference in June sent a clear message that Afghanistans neighbours will play a constructive role.
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and to stand by Afghanistan even after 2014. The Alliance looks forward to the rest of the international
community, and to the countries of the region, joining with us to help deliver to the Afghan people the
future they deserve.
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Keerthi Gondi
EU RelationsIran Add-On
Relations are key to check Iran nuclear proliferation.
Mix 13 (Derek E., FAS Analyst in European Affairs and researcher at the
Congressional Research Service, 3/20/13, The United States and Europe:
Current Issues, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22163.pdf, Accessed
8/12/13, Keerthi)
Transatlantic cooperation regarding Irans nuclear program has been
close and extensive. Since the discovery of Irans covert enrichment activities in 2002, the EU-3 (France, Germany, and
the United Kingdom) have played a leading role in international efforts to curtail them. In 2006, the United States
joined the EU-3, along with Russia and China, to form the Permanent Five Plus One (P5+1) group that has
attempted to conduct negotiations with Iran.16 Between 2006 and 2010, the EU-3
and the United States successfully pushed for United Nations
Security Council approval of four rounds of sanctions on Iran (Resolutions
1737, 1747, 1803, and 1929). Since 2010, the EU has shown a new willingness to go
beyond what has been authorized by the U.N. and to adopt sanctions
on Iran independently. Many analysts are surprised at how far the EU measures have gone. In the past, some
Americans had pointed to European economic ties with Iran as a sign of European reluctance to press Tehran too hard, urging Europeans to
adopt tighter sanctions. Analysts assert that this shift by the EU has sent a strong signal and brought U.S. and European sanctions policy on
Iran into a broad alignment. An EU embargo on Iranian oil took effect on July 1, 2012. Previously, the EU had bought about 600,000 barrels
well as a visa ban and asset freeze against more than 130 individuals involved in Irans nuclear program, and an asset freeze on more than
330 entities identified as supporting Irans nuclear program.17
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intentions in this regard. Israel publicly stated that it would not introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle
Iran has
publicly stated that it seeks the peaceful development of nuclear
power, yet it continues to raise enrichment levels in its centrifuges
while increasing their number and preventing International Atomic
Energy Agency inspectors from inspecting suspected sites . Given the
East, yet it is believed to posses over 200 warheads with the required delivery systems.
importance of this issue in this region and the current political changes taking place there, I have written a
fuller Harvard paper that addresses the issue of establishing a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone, or
WMDFZ.
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Keerthi Gondi
EU RelationsSyria Add-On
EU relations are key to deter the Syrian conflict.
Mix 13 (Derek E., FAS Analyst in European Affairs and researcher at the
Congressional Research Service, 3/20/13, The United States and Europe:
Current Issues, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22163.pdf, Accessed
8/12/13, Keerthi)
Alongside the United States, the EU has been a leading voice in
international condemnation of the Syrian governments violence against its people. With
stronger U.N. action blocked by Russia and China in the Security Council, the EU has moved ahead to
impose extensive sanctions on the Assad regime, expanding its
sanctions from an initial focus on targeting specific individuals and
entities to broader measures against the regimes economic base,
including an oil embargo and extensive restrictions on financial and
banking activities. The immediate goal of EU policy has been to convince the Asad regime to halt violence
and enter into negotiations with the opposition. Analysts asserted that EU sanctions successfully
ratcheted up economic pressure on the regime approximately 90% of Syrias oil
exports were sold to European countriesbut sanctions do not appear to have greatly affected Asads political
pursue either option. The United Kingdom and France have reportedly been pushing to lift the EU arms embargo in order
to arm opposition forces, but have been unable to bring the matter to a consensus among all EU members. European
Also like
the United States, in December 2012 the EU recognized the
opposition Syrian National Coalition as the sole legitimate
representative of the Syrian people. Having ruled out any sort of direct military intervention
countries have thus far provided non-lethal equipment, humanitarian assistance, and some training.19
for the time being, however, the EU appears to have staked its Syria approach on bringing about a political settlement
through the combined pressure of sanctions and international opinion. The EU can thus be expected to continue to
strongly support U.N. and Arab League efforts to monitor the situation and broker negotiations, while also
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US ambassador and others were murdered by jihadists, was in fact a staged event conducted by the State Department for the transfer of arms to al-Qaeda in Syria. It is
yet another instance of US covert gun-running which echoes the Fast and Furious scandal, in which the US government shipped thousands of weapons across the Mexican
spying on such an unprecedented scope, its not hard to see why many view this alleged terror threat as a political stunt to vindicate the governments snooping. And
the prospect is
simply awfully ironic rather than plain and simple awful. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Snows piece has since been pulled from Channel 4s blog pages (but
can be found here.) It is clear that the world currently faces the slippery slope
to nuclear war and that further escalation of violence in Syria may
well develop into a proxy war between the US and Russia or
something much worse. As we commemorate the use of nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki the threat of
nuclear war looms over the planet. Perhaps now more than ever men of violence need to be opposed by men of peace.
available, advocating the use of nuclear and chemical weapons in the name of human rights and freedom in the world. To Snow,
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Brazil CP
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Keerthi Gondi
1NC Generic
Text: The Federative Republic of Brazil should <plan>.
Brazil solves the plan best provides the best leadership
in Latin America.
Gratius and Saraiva 2013 (Susanne Gratius, Associated Professor for
projection In these times of change in the shaping of a new world order, Brazil has begun to stand out
for its assertive participation in international politics, where it has
favoured anti-hegemonic,[1] multi-polar positions and its increasingly
strong leadership in its own region. During the Lula administration
from 2003 to 2010, Brazil gradually started step-by-step to shoulder the costs
inherent in cooperation, governance and integration in the region.[2] At
that time, the Brazilian Development Bank BNDES with a total budget that
exceeds that of the Inter-American Development Bank began to
finance infrastructure projects in South American. [3] The election of Lula da Silva at the end of 2002 and the ensuing rise of
an autonomy-oriented group in Brazils Ministry of Foreign Affairs
cast the countrys foreign policy in a new light.[4] Diplomatic support
for existing international regimes in the 1990s gave way to a proactive push
towards modifying these regimes in favour of southern countries or Brazils particular interests, which was defined by
Lima as soft revisionism.[5] The idea of bringing other emerging or poorer southern
countries on board to counterbalance the might of traditional
Western powers served as the basis for the countrys international
actions. While coalitions with emerging partners helped boost Brazils global pretensions, [6] its diplomatic efforts were
geared towards bolstering its international standing independently
of any other nation, with its role as a global player being firmly grounded in the ideas of autonomy and universalism that were the predominant
diplomatic thinking at the time. Alongside Brazils international rise, its leadership in South
America also started to be seen as a priority. Indeed, the moves to boost
its global and regional projection came simultaneously and were
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CP Solvency
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Nanotech
Brazil can solve nanotech- has empirically coordinated
nanotech cooperation
Invernizzi 13, Ph.D. in Science and Technology Policy from the State University of Campinas in
Brazil, adjunct professor at the School of Education at the Federal University of Parana in Brazil and and
Foladori anthropologist with a PhD in Economics, has worked as professor at universities in Mexico,
Honduras, Nicaragua, Uruguay, and Brazil, teaches at the Doctoral Program on Development Studies at the
Autonomous University of Zacatecas, Mexico and member of the National System of Researchers of
Mexico. Coordinates the Latin American Nanotechnology and Society Network (Noela Invernizzi and
Guillermo Foladori, Inequality Gaps in Nanotechnology Development in Latin America,
www.theartsjournal.org/index.php/site/article/download/82/81, p.40-41, Accessed: 9/25/13, TM)
program to encourage, lay the foundations for and promote the development of human and technical infrastructure in Argentina so that,
through its own and related activities, conditions can be established that allow the country to compete at the international level in the
application and development of micro and nanotechnologies that increase the earned value of products for internal consumption and export
reasoning in which increased competitiveness will ensure improved living conditions. However, on the one hand the possibilities of
competitiveness are not the same for developed countries than for developing ones. On the other hand, the wealth that comes from increased
competitiveness is generally not distributed equitably, so competitiveness can lead, as some historical cases had shown, to widespread
inequality (Delgado Wise & Invernizzi, 2002), and to a research agenda focused on external needs. Inequality gaps in nanotechnology
development in Latin America Guillermo Foladori/Noela Invernizzi more closely than they probably followed other scientific areas in the past.
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Cuba Generic
Brazilian cooperation with Cuba solves.
Gomez 13 (Eduardo J. Gomez, Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Rutgers University at Camden,
BA in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia, PhD in political science from Brown University, January
18 2013, Brazil's Cuban Connection, Quarterly Americas, Published by Americas Society and Council of
the Americas, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/brazils-cuban-connection, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Brazil is once again seeking to enhance its international profile . But this
time, rather than engaging in close partnerships with its fellow BRICS club membersRussia, India, China, and South
AfricaBrazil
Comment on this post But instead of bullying Cuba into following Brazil's lead, Dilma is also gaining something in return
for her citizens: technical assistance from Cuba to address educational illiteracy, a long-time developmental challenge for
Cuba benefits by displaying its impressive success in education reform, while highlighting
its potential to be an amicable partner in hemispheric affairs .
Brazil. In so doing,
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Cuba Agriculture
Brazil solves Cuban agriculture it has more expertise on
Cuban ag.
ACN 13 (Cuban News Agency, Cuba and Brazil to Strengthen Cooperation
Cuban News Agency The South American visitors will stay until Friday, with an agenda that
includes visits to scientific centers, producers and Status organizations. Andrea Sa Brito, advisor to the Secretary of
Agriculture, Livestock and Agribusiness, told the press on Monday that projects include activities linked to the production
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Cuba Ethanol/Sugar
Brazil solves Cuban sugar and Cuba says yes.
Cuba Standard 13 (Oct. 11, 2013, Brazilian companies negotiating
sugar investments, http://www.cubastandard.com/2013/10/11/braziliancompanies-negotiating-sugar-investments/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
CUBA STANDARD Executives of 17 Brazilian sugar and derivatives companies
gathered in Havana Thursday and Friday with executives of state sugar holding Azcuba to
negotiate participation in a $200 million pilot project anchored by a sugar mill in Cienfuegos province, official news
service Prensa Latina reported. The 5 de Septiembre sugar mill near the southern port city of Cienfuegos has become a testing ground for the
modernization of Cubas ailing sugar industry. Companhia de Obras e Infraestrutura (COI), a subsidiary of Brazils Grupo Odebrecht, became
the first major foreign company to engage in Cubas sugar industry when it signed a 13-year joint production agreement in November 2012
with Azcuba to operate the mill. The event at the Hotel Nacional that ends today aims at attracting Brazilian technology and know-how to
improve operations at and around 5 de Septiembre, and boost production of the sugar mill from 25,000 metric tons to 140,000 metric tons.
This is the
first time since the 1959 revolution that the government in Havana has accepted
foreign participation in this industry. However, what is more relevant for
regional energy security is that Brazilian technology and know-how
in the production of ethanol will transform Cuba into an export
platform for sugar-based ethanol, a major competitor with the U.S.
corn-based variety. Having a source of inexpensive and cleaner
ethanol close by could create significant competition for U.S. corn growers given the U.S.
fuel mandates that require ethanol in Americas gasoline blends, with required amounts likely to
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increase over the next four years. While it will not be the reason that the United States ends its trade embargo with
Cuba, energy security may be a factor in nudging domestic political
deliberations forward.
Growing availability of cane-based ethanol may also help supply the needs of
Brazilian official, just back from Cuba, talked about the possibilities for
Brazilian companies to invest in ethanol production in Cuba and
declared, Fidels resistance in this field is being overcome. Lets hope
thats the case. Brazilian investment in Cuban ethanol production would
where a
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Cuba Oil
Brazil companies solves oil tech safety
Kinch 12 (Diana, Dow Jones Newswire, Brazils President: Rules On Oil
Safety Apply To All Companies, http://gcaptain.com/brazils-president-rulessafety/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)All oil companies operating in Brazil, both domestic and
foreign , must respect safety protocols without exception , Brazils President
Dilma Rousseff said Wednesday. Responsibility is the key as Brazil reconciles oil
exploration with environmental protection and as presalt fields bring
new oil prospection and production realities worldwide, Rousseff said in Rio de
Janeiro, as Magda Chambriard took office as president of Brazils national oil regulator, ANP. ANP has a
strategic role to play in safety, as well as in development of the countrys ethanol industryone of Brazils
paths to the futureand in monitoring national content policies, Rousseff said. Content policies require
companies draw from domestic sources for labor and equipment
needs.
October in deep Cuban waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Following geological and geophysical studies in the area, Petrobras will have until May
2010 to decide whether to begin drilling, according to the terms of its contract with state-owned Cuba Petroleo, or Cupet. This block
represents the companys return to Cuba. For now were going to manage that, but were open to evaluating other opportunities in the
country, Figueras said, noting that Petrobras searched for oil in the islands territorial waters between 1998 and 2001. It was a perfect
decision, he added. Also operating in Cubas portion of the Gulf of Mexico, an area known as the Exclusive Economic Zone that measures
some 112,000 square kilometers (43,245 square miles), are Spains Repsol-YPF, Norways Statoil-Hydro, Indias Oil and Natural Gas
contract. Petrobras, an integrated energy company and a global leader in deepwater oil exploration and production, operates in 27 countries
in the Americas, Africa, Asia and Europe. Shares of Petrobras, Brazils largest corporation, trade on the Sao Paulo, New York, Madrid and
Buenos Aires stock exchanges, but the Brazilian government retains control through a golden share. Cupets exploration manager, Rafael
Tenreyro, said last November that based on very modest estimates about 20 billion barrels could lie in the islands offshore fields, while
the U.S. Geological Survey has estimated a more modest total of between 4.6 billion and 9.3 billion barrels of recoverable crude.
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Cuba Science/Education
Brazil solves Cuban science development.
Gomez 13 (Eduardo J. Gomez, Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Rutgers University at Camden,
BA in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia, PhD in political science from Brown University, January
18 2013, Brazil's Cuban Connection, Quarterly Americas, Published by Americas Society and Council of
the Americas, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/brazils-cuban-connection, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Brazil is once again seeking to enhance its international profile. But this time, rather than engaging in close partnerships with its fellow BRICS club members
Russia, India, China, and South AfricaBrazil is collaborating with a smaller nation: Cuba . Since assuming
office in 2011, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has worked closely with Cuban President Ral Castro to strengthen their
partnership in the hopes of further bolstering Brazil's economic advantages and regional influence. She is achieving this
by providing financial and technical assistance
same time advancing Brazils economic interests through strategic investments in port infrastructure. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' quickly deteriorating health has
created incentives for Dilma to fortify her ties with Castro, gradually replacing VenezuelaCubas biggest benefactoras Cuba's most important ally in the region. 5
Cuba to address educational illiteracy, a long-time developmental challenge for Brazil. In so doing, Cuba benefits by displaying its impressive success in education reform,
while highlighting its potential to be an amicable partner in hemispheric affairs. Dilma has continued the policy toward Cuba set by her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva. She has increased assistance, offering to help build a new port in the Mariel section of Cuba, located just a few miles outside of Havana. Brazilian engineers have
been working with their Cuban counterparts to build a port facilitating Cuba's trade. The port will facilitate Cuban trade and is being seen as a gateway for a free-trade
zone in the Americas. Beyond trade, the current port, as well as most of Havana's industry, is located in the tourist area of Old Havana. However, this has contributed to a
foul stench in the aira turn-off for most tourists. But there are ulterior motives. Despite being perceived as a charitable act, Brazil views this port as an economic
investment. In exchange for Brazils assistance, Odebrecht, the Brazilian construction company contracted to build the port, will receive payments from port receipts for an
extended period of time. At the same time, Brazilian companies are expected to get an early start in trading with Cuba, especially in the area of food exports. Aside from
solidifying the close partnership that started with Lula, through these efforts it also seems that Dilma is striving to create a new geopolitical alliance with Cubaone that is
not as hostile toward the United States. With Chavez uncertain health putting the future of the anti-U.S. Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA, using its Spanish
acronym) movement into question, Dilma appears to be stepping in to replace Chavez lead and to create a more U.S.-friendly environment in the region. With the
expectation that Chavez will soon be out of the picture, and with Havanas knowledge of Dilmas close ties with the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, the
engaging in research projects with colleagues in Brazil. Cuba has been emphasizing
sciences and the humanities in their academic exchanges, with about 80 Cuban professors going to Brazil in 2011. Cuba's contributions
to Brazil in terms of education have shed light on its own domestic
successes: in 2011, for example, only 0.2 percent of the entire Cuban population was illiterate. And as of last year, approximately 97 percent of children
attended elementary and high school; in fact, since the late 1990s, Cuba has consistently ranked at the top among Latin American nations when measuring childrens
literacy in math and science. A report conducted by the OECD ranked Cuba number-one for mathematical and scientific achievement in Latin America. In 2001
international experts were so astonished by the performance of Cubas third- and fourth-graders that they went back to reconfirm the results.
Cubas
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Cuba Telecommunications
Brazil has the capacity for telecom assistance.
BMI 13 (Business Monitor International, Market Research, Brazil
Telecommunications Report Q4 2013,
http://www.marketresearch.com/Business-Monitor-International-v304/BrazilTelecommunications-Q4-7811158/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
BMI View: The first half of 2013 have seen Brazil's telecoms markets make
another significant step forward following the launch of the first 4G
LTE services, while supplementing these offerings with value added
services such as M2M and m-commerce. That these launches occurred at the same time as a slowdown in the overall subscription
growth rate of the mobile market is symbolic of the shift occurring as the market matures. Brazil has a high mobile
penetration rate, but with MVNOs set to enter the market in2013 we expect
growth to continue over the medium term. However, it will be at a slower pace comparedwith 2011 and 2012, as
operators push into the last remaining untapped rural areas. In the
broadbandmarket, Anatel has been active in trying to enhance competition,
reducing licence fees for operators wishingto provide multiple
services. However, data from Telebras suggest the government's National BroadbandPlan has been less than successful so far.
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Cuba Tourism
Brazil solves Cuban tourism provides industry growth.
CNN 13 (Caribbean News Now, July 17 2013, Brazil and Cuba to foster
tourism cooperation, http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/topstory-Brazil-andCuba-to-foster-tourism-cooperation-16840.html, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
BRASILIA, Brazil (ACN) -- Cubas tourism minister Manuel Marrero and his Brazilian counterpart Gastao Diaz Vieira are
scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding in Brasilia to
foster bilateral cooperation in the tourism sector. The document
will express the parties willingness to work jointly and look for ways
to boost collaboration. This is the second time, the two ministers have held a working meeting after the first one that
took place in the Cuban tourist centre of Varadero last May, during the visit to the island by the Brazilian official. On that occasion, Diaz Vieira
headed his countrys delegation to the Cuban International Tourism Fair FitCuba 2013. The Cuban minister will also meet with the president of
cities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre, where he presented the Cuban tourism offerings to travel agencies, tour operators and the
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Mexico Generic
Brazil cooperation solves technical cooperation and
Mexico says yes.
SRE 2010 (Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores [Secretary of Foreign Relations] Office, FIFTH
MEETING OF THE MEXICO-BRAZIL WORKING GROUP ON TECHNICAL COOPERATION,
http://www.sre.gob.mx/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2084:fifth-meeting-of-themexico-brazil-working-group-on-technical-cooperation&catid=27:archives&Itemid=64, Keerthi, Acc
11/9/13)
Brazil Working Group on Technical Cooperation is meeting for the fifth time from September 2-4 in Mexico City. The
inaugural meeting was co-chaired by Juan Manuel Valle, Executive Director of the Mexican Agency for International
Development Cooperation (AMEXCID), and Ambassador Fernando Abreu, Director of the Brazilian Cooperation Agency
Program, which is expected to include eight bilateral and three joint projects for third countries, in the areas mentioned
such as cooperation on the Donor Human Milk Bank, which benefits the inhabitants of Mexicos southern border region.
With this meeting,
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As Mexico hosts the G20 Leaders Summit followed later this week by the Rio+20 Conference in Brazil, both
countries climate credentials are under serious scrutiny. Little serious bilateral cooperation
has taken place between these regional and global leaders on climate change. However, cooperation could prove
essential for achieving greater action on climate change in Latin
America and abroad.
Mexico and Brazil have made efforts to improve their relations on trade, security, energy and
biofuels. However, taking into account geographical differences and distinct regional and international perspectives, cooperation is limited.
Relations appear to be positive but competition between Latin Americas two largest economies and carbon
emitters is unquestionable. In the run up to the G20 and Rio+20 it is unclear what cooperation took place between
Brazil and Mexico. Brazil did change the original dates for Rio+20 due to a clash with the Diamond Jubilee of Queen
Elizabeth II and to accommodate Asian leaders attending the G20 Summit. With Rio+20 being described as too important to fail by the UN
chief Ban ki-Moon and Mexicos assertive action on low carbon development, it is unsurprising that Mexicos fifth priority for the G20
Mexico and Brazil have more in common than their rivalry suggests . As
world leaders on climate, the competition between them is a constructive part of
the effort to confront global warming and achieve sustainable
development. At the UNFCCC climate talks, Mexico is considered more of a flexible
and ambitious player given its role in successfully hosting the COP16, its membership of the Cartagena Dialogue and as
the original proponent of the Green Climate Fund. Brazil may be too conservative on the concept of Common but Differentiated
Responsibilities, but is still highly influential and can be credited for helping to keep some of its BASIC partners (China, India and South Africa)
in line during negotiations on the Durban Package in Bonn last month. Brazil and Mexico have been active in securing domestic legislation on
climate change. In 2009 former Brazilian President Lula signed a law establishing the National Climate Change Policy which sets a voluntary
national greenhouse gas reduction target of between 36.1 and 38.9 percent of projected emissions by 2020. This includes a target to reduce
deforestation rates in the Amazon by 80%. This month President Calderon signed Mexicos Climate Change Law which includes targets to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2020 and by 50% by 2050 and achieve 35% of Mexicos energy from renewable sources by
2024. Brazil may have recently announced the lowest deforestation rates on record due to tough government action, but it faces a testing
time ahead if it is to maintain its leadership on climate change. A presentation by the Alliance of Small Island States suggests that 2011 data
from the Brazilian government shows emissions will grow more rapidly than previously expected due to larger projected emissions from
deforestation and other sources in part due to the likely changes to the Forest Code. On clean energy, Brazil continues to be a world leader
on hydropower capacity and ethanol production while Mexico lags behind but is seeing strong interest from European companies interested in
its wind and solar potential. According to Climatescope 2012, Brazil is in poll position with the most amenable environment for climate-related
investments in Latin America with Mexico in sixth place. Mexico and Brazil are competitors in the race towards low carbon resilient
development. This competition is necessary and a constructive force for driving change. Enhanced cooperation, however, is required to take
better advantage of the attributes of these emerging powers and could be decisive for regional and international action on climate change and
president Calderon said in 2010 referring to Brazil: Imagine what we can do together; imagine if we complement each other. With the G20
and Rio+20 underway,
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Mexico Renewables
Brazil can cooperate with Mexico on renewables it
provides a model for the rest of Latin America.
Gonzalez 12 (Gloria Gonzalez, June 24 2012, Renewable Energy Investors
Flock to Latin America, http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/RenewableEnergy/Renewable-Energy-Investors-Flock-to-Latin-America.html, Oil Prices
Magazine, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Investors are rushing to finance renewable energy projects in Latin
America, as many countries in the region now have attractive incentives and investment-grade
ratings. If you're not in a renewable project in Latin America and
youre a private equity investor, it's a little strange , George Osorio, managing
partner of New York-based private equity firm Conduit Capital, said at the Latin American and Caribbean
Renewable energy
has become a very attractive business throughout Latin America
Council on Renewable Energy's finance briefing in New York on Monday.
because of the stability of cash flows, with the exception of Argentina, which cannot afford subsidies or tax
incentives, he said. Just seven years ago, Osorio said he questioned where the returns would come from
when investing in Latin American renewable projects. But then a pullback in European market incentives
led companies such as GE and Vestas to ship their products to a new market: Brazil. Latin America
Brazil to start comes up with some of the best incentives you've ever
seen in this sector, he said. I consider it a model to go after. These
countries did not adopt feed-in tariffs, but the development banks in Brazil and
Mexico provided inexpensive financing and attractive incentives
that
have led to some concern that Brazil in particular has become a bubble waiting to burst, Osorio said.
In
Brazil, I think it's mature, he said. In every other country, its beginning. Countries in the
they also
organise wind-only or renewable-only bidding so developers do not
have to compete with other types of technologies. And, in certain countries,
distribution companies are required to buy this power under power purchase agreements. Returns
are also improving for these projects because of rapidly declining equipment costs. The returns
region provide helpful tax exemptions, although those can be taken away, Osorio noted. But
Osorio said he is seeing for wind projects throughout the region range from 15% to 9%, allowing private
the local financing institutions, especially in Peru, are starting to provide bridge financing, Osorio added.
About five or six years ago, only Chile and Trinidad & Tobago had investment-grade ratings, but that
That means you're getting better financing,
especially for some of the major countries; some of the more creditworthy like
Peru, Mexico, Brazil and Chile, he said. The strategic investors and some of the pension investors in
those countries could only invest in investment-grade projects. Now, they look at the whole
region in order to buy assets.
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Links to find
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Ag
HC
Biofuels
another card about RE
Human Rights
counternarcotics
infrastructure
bank reform
PEMEX
Mexican students
water
trade (general)
Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela
counternarcotics
oil
democratic reform
human rights
Trade (general)
NET BENEFITS
- avoids ptx
- Brazil
A2 PERMS
A2 MX SAY NO
A2 BR CORRUPTION
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BRICS DA
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1NC Flow
1- Uniqueness, Internal Link, and Impact- Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa, a group known as the
BRICS, are resurging their influence into Latin America
their cooperation spills over to create global multipolarity and resolve every major terminal impact.
Mahapatra 13 (Dr. Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra, associate at the University of Mumbai
Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, June 11, BRICS see greater role in Latin America, Russia Beyond the
Headlines http://rbth.asia/news/2013/06/11/brics_see_greater_role_in_latin_america_47283.html, Keerthi,
Accessed 8/30/13)
Cuban Foreign
We
wish to seek a higher level of economic cooperation with the India and the
other BRICS nations , which we consider to be valuable. India is the first dialogue partner of the CELAC, which has provided
Minister, Bruno Eduardo Rodrguez Parrilla told in New Delhi that "CELAC wants to improve relations with BRICS." He also stated, "
the group a format to develop closer relations with India in diverse areas particularly information technology, medical services and tourism as
elaborated by the Cuban minister. He further announced, "We see an opportunity for mutually beneficial economic relations with India." The
and Canada , has recently started exploring economic relations with other countries including economic power houses of the
BRICS. Parrilla pointed out that there are many common values and objectives
between CELAC and BRICS, which need to be further explored. The foreign ministers of Cuba, Haiti and Costa Rica
and deputy foreign minister of Chile met Sergei Lavrov in the Russian capital to deliberate on various issues including promoting dialogue,
between the CELAC and BRICS We believe this is a very attractive suggestion and we will definitely discuss it with other states that are
members of this association." Russian foreign ministry also expressed the idea of establishing a permanent mechanism for political dialogue
and cooperation between Russia and CELAC. Latest news Russia to propose BRICS $10bln contribution for joint banks starting capital
Russia, China as cornerstone BRICS economies - interview of Russian President Putin BRICS Bank on the anvil
China has
It has already replaced the US
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as the largest trading partner of Brazil and Chile. Its trade with Latin America has grown since the last decade. From 2000 to 2011, it has
grown 20-fold, from $3.9 billion to $86 billion. Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister, Zheng Zeguang on the eve of Xi Jinpings visit to Latin
America dispelled any notion of competition between China and the US in the region and stated that China can work with the US in a
framework based on mutual trust, equality and inclusiveness. Xi was received by the Prime Minister of Trindad and Tobago, Kamla PersadBissessar. Besides this Caribbean country, Jinping also visited Costa Rica and Mexico. China is looking forward to widen its investment in the
resources, the CELAC countries have also registered growth despite global economic slowdown. The Latin American countries are also rich in
natural resources. The Union of South American Nations on Natural Resources and Integral Development in its meeting in Venezuelan capital
Caracas last week emphasized on natural resources and their exploration for the development of the region. Latin America reportedly has 38
percent of copper, 21 percent of iron, 65 percent of lithium reserves, 42 percent of silver, and 33 percent of tin. It also contains about 30
percent of the total of the worlds water resources and 21 percent of the worlds natural forests. Some of the Latin American countries such
as Mexico and Venezuela are rich in energy resources. The huge population of CELAC makes the region a vast market for investment and also
for import from the BRICS countries.
Latin American engagement . Though many of the initiatives discussed above are related to individual members
of the BRICS, this adds to the collective sphere of influence of the grouping. As the members Latin
American engagement takes more dynamic shape, the prospects of
collective engagement as a group can be explored. The grouping can evolve common
strategies in exploring the resources in the region for mutual advantage. In this venture, the proposed BRICS bank can be an effective tool.
landscape . It remains to be seen whether this evolving geopolitical acronym since, in 2011,
South Africa was added to the initial group consisting of Brazil, India, Russia, and China is able to structurally
impact the global system1. Structural impact refers to the ability to shape ones identity or
future configuration. Regarding identity this consists of proposing, for example, a competing
global narrative to that of the West (the world is multipolar and state
sovereignty is one of its essential features). With regard to balance of power, it involves changing the
agenda, direction, standing requirements, and collective decisionmaking of the international community in sensitive areas (multilateral trade
negotiations, International Monetary Fund reform, Security Council and United Nations reform, completion of climate negotiations,
implementation of the resolution on the responsibility to protect).
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Chinese President Jiang Zemin's landmark visit to the region sparked a wave of visits by senior officials and business leaders to discuss
to an estimated $ 60 billion in 2006. China has become a major consumer of food, mineral, and other primary products from Latin America,
benefiting principally the commodity-producing countries of South America--particularly Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Chile.
Chinese
investment in Latin America remains relatively small at some $ 6.5 billion through 2004, but that amount
represents half of China's foreign investment overseas . n9 China's Xinhua News
agency reported that Chinese trade with the Caribbean exceeded $ 2 billion in 2004, a 40 percent increase from the previous year. n10
for politicians confronted with constituencies that are increasingly anti-American and skeptical of Western intentions. n12
Nevertheless, most analysts recognize that Latin America's embrace of China--to the extent
that this has actually occurred--is intimately linked to its perception of neglect and
disinterest from the United States. Nervousness about China's rise runs deeper among the smaller
economies such as those of Central America, which do not enjoy Brazil's or Argentina's abundance in export commodities and are inclined to
view the competition posed by the endless supply of cheap Chinese labor as a menace to their nascent manufacturing sectors.
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stood low on the national foreign policy agenda. Of course, there have been undertaken some successful actions for example, in 1996-1997
Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov paid visits to the region during which the whole
package of agreements
on cooperation with Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, Colombia, and, most importantly, with
Brazil (about strategic partnership in the 21 century and creation of a greater Russia-Brazil committee) were signed. But these
actions were only sporadic, and the signed agreements turned out to be suspended. What is more, it was in the early 1990-s after Russias
withdrawal from Cuba, with abandoning the construction of about 500 major facilities and decreasing 30-fold trade turnover with this country
[1], when West-oriented Russia started to be perceived in Latin America as an unreliable partner. The U-turn in Russian foreign policy after
9/11 contributed to it greatly. Having declared about the readiness of Russia to join the US-sponsored anti-terrorist coalition, President Putin on
October 17, 2001 announced the withdrawal of the country from the only overseas strategic site - surveillance radar station in Lurdes on the
outskirts of Havana without prior notification of the Cuban side [2]. Make-or-break moment in the relationships with Latin America region
countries occurred in the wake of the Yeltzin era. Latin American countries themselves seem to have contributed a lot to it. Already in 1999 the
Rio Group uniting the regions leading states turned out to be, actually, the only grouping in the world which condemned the bombing of
Yugoslavia and pointed out in its declaration specific articles of the UN Charter violated by the NATO member- states [3]. In February 2003
Mexico and Chili as non-permanent UN SC members, in fact, vetoed the second Anglo-American resolution authorizing Iraq intervention,
despite their economic dependence on the USA. These actions seem to have made the Kremlin look at the perspectives of cooperation with
Latin American countries at a new angle. Thus, in March 2003 President Putin received in Kremlin the delegation of the Rio Group and held
official talks with them. Both sides agreed not to confine themselves to regular contacts (launched in 1995) within the framework of the UN
General Assembly, but also conduct meetings in Russia and countries of the Group member-states. By mid-decade the exchange of high level
delegations between the sides had intensified. Only one example, in November 2008 President Medvedev visited four countries during his tour
cruiser Peter the Great of the Russian Navy as a flagship entered the territorial waters of US-hostile Venezuela to participate in joint naval
exercises of the North Fleet of the Russian Federation Navy. Simultaneously, within the framework of the resumed patrolling of the Atlantic and
The so-called
comeback of Russia to Latin America was to a great extent
preconditioned by the leftist drift in the region which resulted in the
emergence of the group of states that viewed the expanding
relations with Russia as an important lever for strengthening their
position in conflict relations with the USA. Many of these countries perceived Russia as the successor of
the Pacific oceans two Russian long-range strategic bombers landed at a Venezuelan naval base.
the former USSR might and influence, with the vision of a new world order of both sides being practically identical it should be multilateral,
not individually tailored to the interests of a single superpower. This position was set out in numerous joint documents signed at the summits
practically all the leaders of the most prominent Latin American countries paid official visits to Moscow during the first decade of the 21st
century. The breakthrough happened also in the military and technical field. Starting from 2004 Venezuela has begun purchases of scale of the
Russian arms to the amount of over $4bln. Russia established military and technical cooperation with other countries of the region apart from
Venezuela: Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia also procured Russian military hardware.
Russias oil and gas producing companies LUKOIL and GASPROM were already operating in Venezuela. RUSAL made heavy investments in
Trade between
Russia and the countries of the region has been roaring recently over
bauxite industry of Guyana. ROSNEFT got its chunk for oil exploration in Cuban shelf of the Mexican Gulf.
the last decade trade turnover has tripled and amounted to $15bln [4]. However, despite the qualitative changes in the structure of Russian
export the share of machinery and equipment has a little increased it still leaves much to be desired. Take Brazil, for example: mineral
fertilizers have made up 90% of Russian export, while Brazil has been exporting to Russia mostly meat and tropical goods. Largely, Brazil has
always been the weakest link of Russias regional policy despite its participation in the BRIC group. At any rate, the role of Brazil in Russias
foreign policy is much smaller than those of China and India. It should be recognized that Russia has failed so far to establish strategic
partnership with Brazil, which had been planned for as early as 1997. It can be largely attributed to the fact that Russian leadership has no
priority system in interacting with this country. The latter, from our perspective, is explained by poor understanding of how much intercomplimentary could be the interests of the two resource-rich countries in the decades to come. Unfortunately, China, and lately India have
been much more economically active in the region than Russia, filling the niches in the market that could have been well filled by Russia.
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Another question is why Brazilian dimension of Russian foreign policy is much weaker than the Chinese one? Why do we transfer to China, the
relationships with which in the 20th century were abundant with conflicts including the armed ones, unique military aircraft building
technologies, while denying this to Brazil with which we have never had conflicts or clashes on the international arena? Perhaps, it is the
residual principle inherent of the USSR leadership and successfully inherited in 1990-s by the Russian leadership that is applied to this region.
But, while the USSR used to have Cuba as a strategic partner, the Russian Federation, having curtailed the ties with the Island of Freedom,
didnt bother to start looking for new partners and paid as little attention to the relations with Brazil as with any other Latin American country.
If Russia is really interested in serious and politically influential partners, then it is the Brazil dimension that should be prioritized as the major
vector of Russian policy in the region. It means establishing a special system of partnership which will include an overhaul of the current
system of trade and economic relations, an introduction of a new system of preferential terms of advanced know-how transfer and exchange,
particularly in aerospace field. For that sake its necessary to maximally intensify the relations with Brazils leadership and take them to a
higher level, with the head of state or the government taking control of it. However, the growing understanding of the Russian upper echelons
of power of the necessity to shift the focus of economic cooperation with the countries of the region on to scientific and technical sphere
arouses certain optimism. It is in the field of advanced technologies where Russia is most competitive, and no wonder that the main emphasis
during the April 2010 visit of President Medvedev to the countries of the region was laid on this very issue. Low competitiveness of Russia visa-vis other countries undertaking huge efforts with a view to building up their political and economic position in this region continues to
persist. Besides, our investment capability is also much lower than that of USA, China, EU and even India. Nonetheless, in spite of the
reassessing their interests and alliances, and the more confident among them are flexing their muscles.
its fellow Latin American nations. Colombian, Mexican, and Peruvian officials, among others, talk privately
about their dislike of Brazil's arrogant diplomacy. In some quarters, Brazil's responses to developments
such as Chavez's ongoing assault on Venezuela's democracy and even the 2009 coup in Honduras have
undermined its credibility as a serious leader. (Brasilia's reluctance to speak out for hemispheric
democracy is particularly inexcusable for a government that includes many officials who suffered under
the successive military regimes of the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.) Many Latin American officials quietly
reveal that they are not eager to see Brazil replace the United States as the hemisphere's hegemon. As
one diplomat recently put it, "The new imperialists have arrived, and they speak Portuguese."
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The BRICS just became impossible to ignore . At the close of the Fifth annual BRICS Summit in Durban,
South Africa last week, there was little question that this group of five fast-growing economies was
underwriting an overhaul of the global economic and political order.
The eThekwini Declaration issued at summits end was couched in non-confrontational language, but it was manifestly clear that western hegemony and unipolarity were
development in Africa a resource-rich continent where competing economic interests have drawn increasingly polarized geopolitical battle lines in the past few years. The
BRICS were invited to the African table via their newest member state, South Africa, and have used this opportunity to fully back the African Union (AU). The AU has been
Africas attempt to integrate and unify the continent economically - via the establishment of a single currency and development fund that could bypass the very punishing
IMF and militarily via the establishment of security/defense organizations and joint military forces, among other things. AU success would necessarily mean less oldstyle western imperialism in the region, reducing exploitative foreign economic activities and excluding foreign forces like the US militarys African Command (AFRICOM)
Durban summit therefore was not going to ignore the two most prominent issues on UN Security Councils docket Syria and Iran. Last week, the BRICS collectively
rejected any further militarization of these problems, advocated political solutions negotiated through diplomatic initiatives, expressed concern over unilateral sanctions
and warned against infringement on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of these nations. The eThekwini Declaration says about Iran: We believe there is no
alternative to a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. We recognize Irans right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy consistent with its international obligations,
and support resolution of the issues involved through political and diplomatic means and dialogue. And on Syria, the BRICS fully backed the Geneva principles as the
framework for resolving the two-year conflict: We believe that the Joint Communiqu of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for resolution of the Syrian crisis and
reaffirm our opposition to any further militarization of the conflict. A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be achieved only through broad national
dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by
the Geneva Joint Communiqu and appropriate UNSC resolutions. The BRICS positions on Iran and Syria cannot, however, be viewed solely within the parameters of the
summits declaration. For starters, the statement is nothing new the BRICS have been advocating these points in some form or another since they issued their first
foreign policy communiqu in November 2011. To understand the depth and breadth of commitment behind these Mideast stances, one needs to look beyond the
sanitized, diplomat-speak of the summit environment. India, Brazil and South Africa, for instance, dont offer up much commentary on Syria and Iran they leave that to
their UNSC permanent-member colleagues in Russia and China, who are the BRICS front-men on these issues. Earlier in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited
Moscow on his first foreign trip as head of state, and told audiences there: We must respect the right of each country in the world to independently choose its path of
development and oppose interference in the internal affairs of other countries. A clear warning against aggressive western interventionism, Xis visit with Russias
Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of their strategic partnership in geopolitical affairs. On Syria, in particular, Russia has taken the BRICS lead with the blessing
of its fellow members including China so Moscows view of the situation is a critical one to analyze. The Russians have recently released a concept paper on the
importance of their participation in the BRICS a view that is likely to reflect similar priorities at the highest levels of fellow member states. BRICS drawing red lines
the obsolete international financial and economic architecture which does not take into account the increased economic power of emerging market economies and
, a simultaneous rebalancing of
political power worldwide must also occur. Moscow believes that the BRICS can
potentially become a key element of a new system of global
governance primarily in the financial and economic areas. At the
same time, the Russian Federation stands in favor of positioning
BRICS in the world system as a new model of global relations,
overarching the old dividing lines between East and West, and North
and South. Its a bold new world , but theres real value in some of the old ways. For one, the BRICS are big proponents
of the Rule of Law in global affairs, concepts the West often tosses around, but rarely
developing countries. But for fundamental economic shifts to take place
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Important CX Questions
What people from Mexico will be coming over to the US?
Will there be scientists?
How about students?
What about researchers in various fields like agriculture?
Is there currently movement of scientists between the US and Mexico?
If yes, non-inherent (?)
If no, theres your uniqueness to the DA.
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1NC
The plan causes a brain drain with Mexico saps all science and tech talent out of
the country.
Analuciadavila 13 (February 11, Mexicos Brain Drain: A Different Side
to the Story of Immigration., http://policyinterns.com/2013/02/11/mexicosbrain-drain-a-different-side-to-the-story-of-immigration/, Keerthi, Acc
10/23/13)
For most Mexican immigrants the American Dream means
opportunity. It represents the opportunity to work, earn money, and grow accordingly to your
efforts and skills. It also means promise. America promises that if you work hard, youll be rewarded, and
is the story about a particular type of immigrant, the ones that dont cover the newspaper headlines and
that did not risk their lives smuggling across the border. This is the story about Mexican legal immigrants
that happen to be qualified, educated, bilingual and brilliant. Ranked as the 4th major brain exporter in
behind Great Britain, Philippines and India should not be a flattering commemoration for the country, but a
big warning sign calling for the urgent revision of a greater question:
outstanding universities grows, the country is not generating enough highly qualified, well-paid and
five times faster than the population, but job opportunities for professionals are not expanding as fast.
The lack of opportunities, the low wages, and the small amount of spaces available for young
adults to work in their specialized fields have led to a great frustration among the new
generations. Becoming a Nini [1] in Mexico is a major issue and one of the greatest concerns for any
student about to graduate. Although recently appointed President Enrique Pea Nieto has launched a
project to reduce the Mexican brain drain, the 15% increase in the federal budget designated to science
and technology and the 70,395 million pesos investment for this matter might not be enough to keep an
important part of the highly qualified migration in the country. Why? Mexicans feel they deserve better.
The climate of insecurity and violence that has affected the country in the
last years has become one of the greatest incentives for the wealthy and the
educated to emigrate. Those adequately prepared are the most informed and sensitive ones to the
insecurity issue in Mexico. Young adults feel disappointed, scared, frustrated, and tired. They are losing
hope and they feel betrayed by their country. They feel that their country cannot provide them with what
with a Doctorate in 2010, approximately 20,000 were residing in the U.S., according to the U.S Current
Population Survey.
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number of student visas granted every year for the fields of science
and engineering. Such incentives stimulate the brain drain and
threaten the development of Mexico in a highly globalized and
competitive world.
<Specific Link And/Or Impact>
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Keerthi Gondi
OV
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2NC/1NR Overview
Extend Analuciadavila 13 the brain drain is occurring now, but very slowly (nonunique Impact Turns). Mexico doesnt have the capacity to host national research
and educational capabilities due to inefficiency and over-qualification of scientists.
Thus, these students and scientists look for other venues to express their talent. The
plan specifically entices this talent magnet scientists would see the US as a talent
haven due to the plans ability for them to travel. This results in a brain drain; talent
is drained out of Mexico. <explain specific link if used>.
<Impact OV>
<Turns Case>
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Uniqueness
They should have thought about the DA uniqueness in cross-examination. My
partner specifically asked them Are people and scientists going between the US
and Mexico now? They said no, meaning there is no current brain drain ongoing in
the status quo.
Double Bind- either there is a brain drain going on, meaning the plan is non-inherent
and unnecessary, or there is no brain drain going on, which provides DA
uniqueness. They lose either way.
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Links
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Generic
More opportunity and demand for students in the US will cause a brain drain more
specialized visas links.
Torrest and Wittchen 12 (Mario Alberto Arauz Torres, Ph.D. student on
Resource Economics, MA of Science in Rural Development, Bachelor in
Agricultural Economics,
,Urszula Wittchen, Brain Drain across the Globe: Country Case Studies,
Keerthi, Acc 4/24/13)
The number of Mexican immigrants leaving college campuses increases,
including the alumni of prestigious Monterrey Institute of Technology, known as Mexicos MIT. The press
northern neighbour, or provide basic security for its population (Corchado, 2008). According to the
International Organization for Migration, which studied the exodus of educated Mexicans to the United
States, an estimated 14,000 of the 19,000 Mexicans with doctorates live in the US, many in north Texas.
The number of Mexicans making leaving for the United States recently doubled in 2005 - from 275,000
emigrating annually ten years ago, to an estimated 500,000 a year nowadays - and this trend continues.
strengthening ties with Mexican expatriates, as part of the Mexicans Abroad Program, and the new Red de
Talentos (Network of Talents), which targets Mexican entrepreneurs. The idea is to encourage investment in
Mexico to create jobs there, and maybe to bring some of them back. But there are also mental barriers,
difficult to surmount. A good exemplification of the growing unwillingness and rising difficulties with
making the decision to return among migrants who have successfully spent a long time abroad can be
found in the words of the Mexican potential expat in the US, who first believed that if only there were a
true democracy in Mexico, if only there were a more open economy, if only Mexico were more closely
linked to the United States through a free trade agreement, if only there were more jobs and no peso crises
- then Mexican workers would stay home to raise their families and build their country rather than making
the journey to the US. But now, when many of these expectations have become a reality, t he
old if
onlys have been replaced by new ones: If only jobs in Mexico paid
better, if only free trade brought more benefits, if only the political
parties werent always fighting, if only there werent so many drug
killings. And if only there wasnt such a demand in the United
States for young, ambitious students like them
(Corchado, 2008).
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Guest Workers
Guest Workers cause a brain drain empirically proven.
CSM 12 (Mexican emigration: safety valve or brain drain?,
http://www.csmonitor.com/1981/1217/121733.html/(page)/2, Keerthi, Acc
4/24/13)
The growing flow of Mexicans into the United States represents a ''safety valve'' for
Mexico's whopping unemployment problem. Right? Reverse brain drain: Economic shifts lure migrants home Latin America Monitor Mixed feelings south
of the border on Senate immigration plan Opinion Mexico should take a more active stance on US immigration reform Traditional wisdom would have it so. But there is
evidence that the flow actually may not be such a boon. In fact, new studies of the issue indicate the migration could become a source of potential social trouble for
result is that jobs are being scaled down or replaced by machines - and if the migrants return, they won't find the same jobs. * While the migrants are supposed to be
sending home between $1 billion and $ 1.5 billion annually, these remittances may not be so high, and the money appears to be wasted by many of the recipients.
(of the migration) that should cause Mexico concern,'' says Dr. Allen Newman,
professor of economics and finance at the University of New Orleans, speaking here at a conference on Mexico and the US in the 1980s. The meeting was cosponsored by
Tulane University and the International Trade Mart here. Although not all observers are so negative about the consequences of the flow on Mexico, a reassessment of the
issue is being called for. The exact number of Mexicans going the US yearly is hard to ascertain because so many of them are undocumented. But speakers at the
meeting suggested that it ranges between 500,000 and 2 million yearly.
temporary work, and then return home . The flow is larger than any similar immigrant tide in Europe or
elsewhere. But in the view of many of the speakers it is the worst sort of flow since it is ''uncontrolled.'' Can it be controlled? Most observers think not. Edwin Chauvin,
district director of the Immigration and Naturalization Service in New Orleans, said, ''It has proven impossible to seal the border.'' He and others suggested that the best
Newman doubts that the Reagan program will work effectively. Its proposal to regularize 50,000 entries yearly ''is a drop in the bucket,'' and he adds that he is not
particularly optimistic about ''any program getting through Congress.'' But even with approval of such programs,
continue
until Mexico finds solutions to its employment problem. At the moment, with Mexico's population soaring at a 3 percent increase yearly, about
the
immigrant flow results in part because of a vacuum. ''The undocumented are here,'' says Dr.
Newman, ''because they fill a need .''
850,000 new jobs are needed to take care of young Mexicans coming on the job market annually. Mexico is creating only about one-third of that total. In the US,
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TN/E-2/EB-5 Visas
The plans type of visas specifically entices a brain drain.
Hennemuth 2013 (Elizabeth Hennemuth, May, Unintended
Consequences Considering Mexicos Stability when Designing U.S.
Immigration Reform, The Project on International Peace and Security, The
College of William and Mary,
http://www.wm.edu/offices/itpir/_documents/pips/20122013/hennemuth_e_brief.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/23/13)
More visas for highly skilled and educated workers wokuld create
opportunities for middle-class Mexicans seeking employment, safety, and a better future
for their children. A large-scale influx of Mexican professionals into the
United States would deny Mexico the economic, political, and social
leaders needed to enact President Pena Nietos proposed reforms.
Mexicos brain drain. One in three Mexicans with PhDs and one in seven Mexicans with Masters degrees
live in the United States.160 From 1971 to 2008, Mexico lost 2,100 scientists and more than 140
billion pesos the Mexican government invested in their education.161 Mexicans have several
means to pursue nonimmigrant educational and employment migration, such as
through the NAFTA Professional (TN) visa , which has had no
numerical limit since 2004.162 Furthermore, from 2000-2012, the number of nonimmigrant Mexicans
investing significant capital in U.S. businesses through E-2 NAFTA
visas doubled.163 Moreover, the number of Mexicans immigrating on the
EB-5 visa , which aims to grow the U.S. economy through
immigrants capital investment and job creation in U.S. businesses,
has recently increased.164 Mexicos brain drain likely would worsen as immigration reform makes it
easier for professionals, especially those in STEM fields, to immigrate to the United States legally. In an April 2013 report,
the Banco de Mxico and the Migration Policy Institute predicted more Mexican migration in skilled employment sectors,
as well as an overall return to net migration inflows of 230,000 to 330,000 annually, between 2011 and 2017.165
predicted to grow 22.8 percent over the next 5 years, would likely attract skilled labor and engineers.170
Impact Business
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Trade I/L
Brain drain kills the Mexican economy
Millan 2011 (Omar Millan, Alejandro Daz Bautista, a member of Mexicos National Council of
Science and Technology and an economics professor at the College of the Northern Border, December 13
2011, Mexicos brain drain to U.S. a phenomenal loss,
http://www.sandiegored.com/noticias/21150/Mexico-s-brain-drain-to-U-S-a-phenomenal-loss/, Keerthi, Acc
10/23/13)
TIJUANA
The brain drain and flight of human capital of Mexicans who immigrate north Is the
todays knowledge-based
world, its more valuable to have these minds who can contribute to
economic development than to take away the product of a gold mine or a part of a countrys oil, Daz
Bautista said. In the last few years, its estimated that more than five million Mexicans with an education above high
school have decided to move to the United States, which shows that the programs to bring them back home have failed.
Developing countries such as Mexico need a public policy that tries to retain its qualified professionals by offering them
better employment options and incentives to those who have left to return home to contribute to their countrys economy,
he said. He said that Mexico has generated 8 million professionals in the last few years, and that 900,000 of them are
already in the United States. He said that at least 125,000 people with a masters or doctorates have left the country.
He said that loss will have grave consequences for years to come.
The Mexican economy is key to the global economy and free trade.
Harcourt 13 (Tim Harcourt, March 13 2013, Mexicos Moment: Why is Latin
Americas economic spotlight shifting away from Brazil?,
http://www.theglobalist.com/mexicos-moment/, Keerthi, Acc 4/24/13)
Reaching key areas such as taxation, social security, education,
pensions and competition policy, these reform measures although long overdue
are bound to have a significant economic effect. Most specifically, they are
expected to lead to a sustainable GDP growth rate of 5% a year going forward. This compares to a rate of
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Keerthi Gondi
most clearly by going to Monterrey. According to Rolando Zubiran, the states deputy
minister for foreign investment, 80% of U.S.-Mexican economic activity passes through Monterrey, with its
two railroad lines, large automotive sector, healthcare sector and 127 industrial parks.
Free trade prevents nuclear war and controls the proximate for ALL conflictprevents a rally around the flag effect- statistics are on our side.
Fouda 12 (October 2012, Protectionism and Free Trade: A Countrys Glory
or Doom? International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, No.
5, http://www.ijtef.org/papers/226-CF312.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
Protectionists fault the free trade model as being reverse protectionism in disguise, that of using tax policy to protect
foreign manufacturers from domestic competition. By ruling out revenue tariffs on foreign products, government must
fully rely on domestic taxation to provide its revenue, which falls heavily disproportionately on domestic manufacturing.
As Paul Craig Roberts [10] (US Falling Behind Across the Board) notes: "Foreign
discrimination of US
products is reinforced by the US tax system, which imposes no appreciable tax burden on foreign goods
and services sold in the US but imposes a heavy tax burden on US producers of goods and services regardless of whether
profitable, mitigating their desired effect. This happens because quotas artificially restrict supply, so it is unable to meet
demand; as a result the foreign producer can command a premium price for its products. These increased profits are
who gain from "protectionist" laws are special-interest groups, such as some big corporations, unions, and farmers' groups
all of whom would like to get away with charging higher prices and getting higher wages than they could expect in a free
marketplace. These
and all other ordinary consumers. Your freedom is being trampled into the dust by these laws, and
you are literally being robbed, through taxes and higher prices, in order to line the pockets of a few politically-privileged
"fat cats." This situation made it clear to economists mind that some are favored while others...also "Protectionism is a
misnomer. The only people protected by tariffs, quotas and trade restrictions are those engaged in uneconomic and
being raised around the world by short-sighted politicians. Will the world again end up in a shooting war as a result of
these economically-deranged policies?
nuclear age?
Well, I think
not really ...because I suppose there is still much to cover, for this
better world were all fighting for . Another great economist pointed out the fact that, the
economic war fought in our world today is due to a huge variety of
economic philosophy of nationalism, as quoted below. " What
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Keerthi Gondi
(Great Economist).
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Keerthi Gondi
2nc trade OV
Extend the trade impact. Mexicos brain drain would kill their economic status the
scientific expertise leaving Mexico would be otherwise used to boost economic
status and productivity. Mexicos economy depends on middle-skilled workers that
would leave. Mexican economic vitality is key to global trade agreements and
subsequently the success of free trade. It acts as a motivator for the rest of Latin
America to hop on board free trade agreements like the TPP. Free Trade accounts for
60% of their GDP.
Free Trade controls the proximate cause for all major conflicts Fouda 12 indicates
that free trade policy is vital to influence politicians to not go to war due to
globalization and the interconnectedness of economics. Empirics prove- all times of
peace marked highs in free trade. Delving into protectionism causes nationalist rally
around the flag sentiment that causes war over exchange and nuclear conflicts
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Keerthi Gondi
certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may
seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major,
medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global
economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's
(1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that
interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view
in
the likelihood of
terrorism
sitting
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Keerthi Gondi
crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves
This observation is not contradictory to other perspectives that
link economic interdependence with a decrease in the likelihood of external
conflict, such as those mentioned in the first paragraph of this chapter. [end page 214] Those
studies tend to focus on dyadic interdependence instead of global interdependence and do not
more attention.
specifically consider
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
economic crises. As
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Keerthi Gondi
Trade Zones, former director of the Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy
Studies at the Cato Institute, BA in Journalism from Univ. of WisconsinMadison, Diploma in Economics, MA in Politics of the World Economy from the
London School of Economics, 12/28/13, Peace on Earth? Try Free Trade
among Men, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5344, Accessed
11/28/12, Keerthi)
As one little-noticed headline on an Associated Press story recently reported, "War declining worldwide,
the number of
armed conflicts around the world has been in decline for the past
half-century. In just the past 15 years, ongoing conflicts have
dropped from 33 to 18, with all of them now civil conflicts within
countries. As 2005 draws to an end, no two nations in the world are at war with each other. The
death toll from war has also been falling. According to the AP story, " The number killed in
battle has fallen to its lowest point in the post-World War II period,
dipping below 20,000 a year by one measure. Peacemaking missions, meanwhile,
studies say." According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
are growing in number." Those estimates are down sharply from annual tolls ranging from 40,000 to
100,000 in the 1990s, and from a peak of 700,000 in 1951 during the Korean War. Many causes lie behind
the good news -- the end of the Cold War and the spread of democracy, among them -- but
First,
trade and globalization have reinforced the trend toward democracy,
and democracies don't pick fights with each other. Freedom to trade nurtures
between nations have had a dampening effect on armed conflict and war, for three main reasons.
democracy by expanding the middle class in globalizing countries and equipping people with tools of
products, they can acquire them peacefully by trading away what they can produce best at home.
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Aerospace I/L
Brain drain kills the Mexican economy
Millan 2011 (Omar Millan, Alejandro Daz Bautista, a member of Mexicos National Council of
Science and Technology and an economics professor at the College of the Northern Border, December 13
2011, Mexicos brain drain to U.S. a phenomenal loss,
http://www.sandiegored.com/noticias/21150/Mexico-s-brain-drain-to-U-S-a-phenomenal-loss/, Keerthi, Acc
10/23/13)
TIJUANA
The brain drain and flight of human capital of Mexicans who immigrate north Is the
todays knowledge-based
world, its more valuable to have these minds who can contribute to
economic development than to take away the product of a gold mine or a part of a countrys oil, Daz
Bautista said. In the last few years, its estimated that more than five million Mexicans with an education above high
school have decided to move to the United States, which shows that the programs to bring them back home have failed.
Developing countries such as Mexico need a public policy that tries to retain its qualified professionals by offering them
better employment options and incentives to those who have left to return home to contribute to their countrys economy,
he said. He said that Mexico has generated 8 million professionals in the last few years, and that 900,000 of them are
already in the United States. He said that at least 125,000 people with a masters or doctorates have left the country.
He said that loss will have grave consequences for years to come.
Mexican economic collapse kills their manufacturing sector uniquely affects the
manufacturing hotspot near the US border.
Villarreal 10 [9/16/10, M. Angeles Villarreal is an Analyst in International
Trade and Finance in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the
Congressional Research Service. The Mexican Economy After the Global
Financial Crisis, Congressional Research Service
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41402.pdf]
Manufacturing industries have been severely affected by the decline
in external demand, particularly in high-value-added industries. The sharp drop in
exports to the United States led to a large drop in industrial produ ction. As a result,
business and consumer confidence has weakened to record lows and
subsequently has put downward pressure on consumption and
investment.26 Job losses in Mexico increased in 2008 and 2009, with possibilities of further job losses in
export-oriented assembly plants as they cut capacity due to the downturn in demand. The annual growth rate of Mexicos
industrial production decreased from 5.7% in 2006 to -0.6% in 2008 and to -10.1% in 2009. A higher demand for Mexican
exports to the United States and a projected improvement in Mexicos domestic economy are expected to result in higher
industrial production in the next two years. Production growth is projected to reach 4.1% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011.27
The economic crisis, combined with the increased violence along the U.S.-Mexico border, has hurt
the manufacturing industry, and many of Mexicos export-oriented
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assembly plants have shut down in recent years, especially along the U.S.-Mexico
border. A majority of these exportoriented plants have U.S. parent
companies, though some parent companies are located in Asia and Europe. The border region
with the United States has the highest concentration of assembly
plants and workers.
Ciudad
as a result of lower U.S. demand and the drugrelated violence that has occurred in this
manufacturing city over the past two years. Manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juarez decreased from 214,272 in July
2007 to 168,011 in December 2009, a loss of 46,261 jobs (22% decrease). In Tijuana, Baja California, employment
decreased from 174,105 in July 2007 to 136,957 in December 2009, a loss of 37,148 jobs (21% decrease). The total
number of export-oriented manufacturing plants in Mexico increased from 5,083 in July 2007 to 5,245 in December 2009.
However, employment decreased from 1,910,112 in July 2007 to 1,641,465 in December 2009, a loss of 268,647 jobs
(14% decrease).28
expressed the need to "approve the plans for final assembling of products in Mexico, and the government's support to provide a legal framework to offer internationally-
providing the infrastructure needed John Walsh, president of world-renowned consulting firm Walsh Aviation which advises more than 70 firms in the world in 10 different
training programs. International firms with operations in Mexico are already benefiting from the investment drivers. For example, "Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and
example, "the design area has been growing so much, that companies like General Electric are opening a design center in Queretaro, adding more market value," added
Diaz Miron. "A lot of positive things are happening in Mexico as it continues developing strong business partnerships and work skills become stronger," said Diaz Miron.
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We are moving in the right direction." Mexico, an International Hub of Opportunities When asked about Mexico as
important that people recognize that
Mexico is a manufacturing country soon changing into an
engineering research stage. Mexico has the pillar of human capital with highly-qualified engineers and technicians coming out of
schools and universities that offer the curricula aerospace firms need to succeed in
the industry." Walsh explained that, "the Mexican aerospace industry grew from producing 700 aircrafts
per year to 1,000 per year which is a big step, and I believe it could go up to 1,400 by 2014." Walsh added, "International
investors would previously go to markets like Bangladesh or Indonesia for their aerospace operations, but now they know it hasn't been working. Instead, Mexico
offers the right size of operation and is the right place to be," he concluded.
"
Aerospace, which cuts shiny precision-shaped steel discs that end up on Boeing commercial jets; and
Netherlands-based Fokker Technologies.
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is able to move
aircraft, weapons and systems through the nationwide system of
depots, Air Logistics Centers and other facilities at a rate unmatched by any other nation.
collaborative arrangements such as performance-based logistics contracts,
Air Force is key to deterrence - decline causes global nuclear war and conflict
Thompson, March 2013--Loren B., PhD, Intelligence, Surveillance, and
while programs to recapitalize tactical air fleets in both services were repeatedly restructured. In addition, efforts to develop next- generation
intelligence, navigation, communication, missile-warning and weather satellites have fallen far behind schedule. As a result, the joint inventory
of fixed-wing aircraft and orbital systems enabling air dominance has aged considerably. Unmanned aircraft are an exception to this trend, but
technologies in which only a few countries could play, such as long-range ballistic missiles, to technologies in which many players could
dominance. The inquiry focused on the four core components of air dominance: intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance; air superiority;
long- range strike; and mobility. In each area, the inquiry sought to understand the current force structure and modernization programs being
funded, and then identify gaps in future capabilities that need to be addressed. It also examined alternative approaches to satisfying
operational requirements, and explored how those alternatives might be implemented in varying fiscal circumstances. A series of working
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Science I/L
Brain drain kills Mexican science base.
Arenas 1 (J.L. de Arenas, Sensei Scholar, Mexican scientific brain drain:
causes and impact, http://scholar.qsensei.com/content/p32x, Keerthi, Acc
10/24/13)
Despite programmes to accelerate training in science in Mexico since the 1970s, the indigenous
science base is thin. Mexican PhD graduates were counted in North
American universities and their disciplines identified . The number of
doctorate recipients currently recognised by the Mexican
government as national researchers was counted. The results imply
that the Mexican governments efforts to strengthen scientific
research are unfocussed, being based on the erratic selection of
institutions and disciplines of study. Brain drain is assumed, which
may be associated with the lack of ability of Mexican institutions to
absorb and use fully trained people.
either the USA or the European Union, for instance, and now publishes more scientific articles than Japan.
Even countries with a lesser scientific capacity are finding that they
can acquire, adopt and sometimes even transform existing technology and thereby leapfrog over
certain costly investments, such as in infrastructure like land lines for telephones. Technological
progress is allowing these countries to produce more knowledge and
participate more actively than before in international networks and research partnerships
with countries in both North and South. This trend is fostering a democratization of
science worldwide. In turn, science diplomacy is becoming a key
instrument of peace-building and sustainable development in international relations.
On a political level, there has also been greater government interest
in promoting a science culture and citizen participation. Latin America has
been no stranger to the trend towards democratization of knowledge. Many
surveys of the public perception of science have been conducted in recent years, as a result of the
creation of a network within which academics and officials of national S&T organizations
in Latin American countries have been working together to build a consensus on methodology (Box
2).
Science diplomacy solves all impacts, which turns case it also solves ocean
acidification and nuclear escalation.
Royal Society, 10 a Fellowship of more than 1400 outstanding individuals from all areas of
science, mathematics, engineering and medicine, who form a global scientific network of the highest
calibre. The Fellowship is supported by over 130 permanent staff with responsibility for the day-to-day
management of the Society and its activities. [January, 2010, New frontiers in science diplomacy]
Over the next thirty years, foreign policy will be increasingly shaped by the linked challenges of
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Keerthi Gondi
global sustainability (Lee 2009). Professor John Beddington FRS, the UK Governments Chief Scientific
up-to-date information on the dynamics of the Earths natural and socio-economic systems. Scientists must
also identify where uncertainties exist, or where the evidence base is inadequate
(Royal Society 2005). Probably the best known example of a mechanism for informing policymaking with
scientific advice is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This was established in 1988 by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to
provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential
environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC does not carry out its own original research,
but reviews and produces periodic assessments of recent scientific, technical and socio-economic research.
Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to its work on a voluntary basis. Review is an
essential part of the IPCC process, and differing viewpoints within the scientific community are reflected in
the IPCC reports. In December 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize (jointly with former U S
Vice- President Al Gore) for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made
climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.5
Panel on International Issues (IAP), which represents over 100 of the worlds national academies of science,
and diplomatic, cooperative, or other activities where unambiguous understandings is essential (NAS
give and receive scientific advice The effective use of scientifi c advice in diplomacy requires international
policymakers to have a minimum level of scientifi c literacy, or at least access to others who have it. It also
requires scientists to communicate their work in an accessible and intelligible way, which is sensitive to its
wider policy context. Scientifi c bodies can help to build this capacity: in the US, efforts to increase the
number of scientists serving in the foreign policy community include the Jefferson Science Fellowships,
administered by the National Academies of Science, and the Science Diplomacy Fellowships offered by the
AAAS. Establishing and nurturing links between the scientific and foreign policy communities informs
scientists and policymakers alike: the former about the realities of policymaking; and the latter about the
role and limits of science in policy. Improving the scientifi c capacity of delegations from developing
countries is particularly important, especially for international negotiations on health and climate policy.
For example, health campaigners argue that offi cials from developing countries may lack the necessary
expertise to negotiate technical aspects of the international patent system. The same problem can apply in
complex areas of climate change policy. Scientific bodies can help to address these problems; a recent
example being the partnership between the InterAcademy Panel and the European Climate Foundation,
which convened workshops in Africa, Asia and Latin America to prepare offi cials from countries in these
regions in the run up to the 2009 COP-15 Copenhagen climate change negotiations. In the UK, the Royal
Societys MP-Scientist Pairing Scheme has been running since 2001.
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Keerthi Gondi
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/technology/Mass+extinction+high+ocean+acidity+study/5377124
/story.html. September 9.]
A Canadian-led team of scientists may have solved the biggest whodunit in Earth history in a study
eruptions in present-day Siberia - or possibly a huge meteorite strike - triggered the so-called
PermianTriassic extinction. But the precise mechanism of death for so many species remains a subject of
debate, with some scientists convinced it was a resulting lack of oxygen in the Earth's oceans or a
Though still far lower than that experienced in the ancient mass extinction, rising acidity has been
documented by researchers around the world and is linked to the effects of climate change. Using a series
of computer simulations to recreate conditions on the planet at the time, Montenegro and his five
colleagues from Canada and Australia found it unlikely that oxygen-starved oceans led to the mass
extinction. Instead, their models pointed to a new prime suspect: spiking acid levels in the world's marine
their own bodily structures from minerals found in ocean water. Among the species that vanished from the
rock record around the time of the P-T extinction were most of the ammonites - large, snail-shaped marine
creatures that are known today from the beautifully iridescent, multi-coloured fossils of their spiral shells,
found in places such as southern Alberta. The relatively few ammonite species that survived the mass
extinction 250 million years ago were later killed off by the meteorite-linked extinction at the end of the
dinosaur age 65 million years ago.
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2nc science OV
Extend the impact a brain drain would drain Mexico of its scientific base. All fully
trained and qualified people would flock to the US for more opportunity in jobs,
leaving Mexico scientifically erratic and absorbed. Albornoz indicates that Mexican
and Latin American science capacity is vital to producing more knowledge and
participation in scientific communities. It allows democratization of science and
ideas, stringing together groups of people. Royal Society indicates that science
diplomacy is critical to fostering international cooperation of dialogic issues like
poverty, energy and resources, disease, and other environmental threats. It also
creates a common language which can be used to solve issues like nuclear
escalation, solving nuclear war. In addition, science diplomacy creates the scientific
research necessary to solve ocean acidification. Boswell indicates that causes
extinction empirics prove that ocean acidifications have caused mass extinctions
of the alpha species.
The impact turns case - <scidip key to their impacts>
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Keerthi Gondi
Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, Italy, is one of the oldest international research institutions. It also
proven that their well-defined missions and strict emphasis on maintaining the highest international
scientific standards create a successful and sustainable formula that strengthens scientific ties and
ensures continuous support from funding sources. As the divides of the twentieth century heal and new
ones emerge or reemerge, these large multinational institutions have had to adapt to the geopolitical and
developmental realities of the twenty-first century by expanding their scientific and geographical reach.
based on high quality and ambitious science, politically neutral siting of the physical facilities, and an
inclusive organizational management and membership structureto serve as models for new or future
research institutions. The vision of ICTPs founders, most notably Nobel laureate Abdus Salam, was to
create an institution with a truly global nature at a time when the world was divided by the Cold War. The
founders chose Trieste because of its great cultural diversity, which flows from its rich historythe city
oscillated between the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Italy, and the former Yugoslavia and for a brief period
was a free independent state under the United Nations after World War II. Its key location on the border
between Western and Eastern Europe during the Cold War made it strategic for an international
organization. Exhibiting what may be one of the earliest examples of science diplomacy success, ICTP in
the 1960s was essentially the only place in the West where scientists from both sides of the Iron Curtain
could meet and share their scientific results and knowledge of physics and mathematics. Whatever the
research subjects, ICTP brings together scientists from literally all over the world. Since its beginning in
These scientists
regularly get together, teach each other, start collaborations, learn about each
other's cultures, and share their views not only about science but
about other subjects including politics, religion, art, music, and food .
1964, the center has received visitors from more than 185 countries.
In a world with many divides, whether it is east and west or north and south, ICTP is one of the few places
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Keerthi Gondi
that offers a possibility of dialogue among civilizations (of diverse and sometimes contrasting views and
international cooperation that usually address only near-term issues without a clear follow-up strategy,
ICTP creates strong ties with its visitors that are maintained throughout their whole career. CERN scientists
also share many of these duties because of the increasing international impact and reach of the laboratory.
CERN's initiatives to expand to non-European countries have taken a few different directions. First, it has
been able to involve non-member states in the construction of its experiments as well as in scientific
collaborations, which now include members from many countries on all continents. It has been organizing
schools, such as the CERN Latin American school on accelerator physics and, more recently, it has joined
ICTP and other institutions to organize African schools in fundamental physics. At these schools, local
scientists and students can attend lectures on subjects as diverse as early universe cosmology, the physics
and engineering aspects of accelerators, data analysis, and medical applications. CERN has also played a
leading role in initiatives to have networks of scientists from developing countries join one of its
experiments, such as the former European Union project known as HELEN (High-Energy Physics Latin-
Array (SKA), which will be mostly based in South Africa and neighboring countries; and ANDES (Agua Negra
Deep Experiment Site) in South America. In particular, SKA will be the world's biggest radio telescope,
which will not only bring much needed scientific activity to the region, but also benefits for the local
community deriving from being involved in a world-class effort. ANDES may play a similar role in South
America as a truly Latin American big experimental project . Other countries, such as Brazil,
India, and China, are now in a position to host international scientific centers and support the development
are now in a
position to host international scientific centers and support the development of
science in neighboring countries. In 2011 the ICTP-SAIFR (South American Institute for
of science in neighboring countries. Other countries, such as Brazil, India, and China,
Fundamental Research) opened in So Paulo, Brazil, with the goal of promoting science in the region
following the ICTP model. Similar institutions are being planned for other key areas of the world to
strengthen scientific collaboration within a given region and with the rest of the world. Clearly, CERN and
ICTP are key role models of international science diplomacy.
of an important missing piece to the Standard Model puzzle as well as the creation of the World Wide Web,
a tool so ubiquitous today that few can imagine a life without it. ICTP's successes are more subtle but no
less important: the building of solid, sustainable science foundations in less-advantaged parts of the world
ensure that budding scientists, no matter what the economic and political situation of
their native countries, have the opportunity to nurture their ambitions in an
environment conducive to the highest levels of scientific knowledge
and discovery. Working through the universal language of science, both have demonstrated the
to
importance of a global approach to address the challenges of our time. They probably represent the best
And, science diplomacy checks escalation of conflicts its an impact filter it also
solves ocean acidification, Arctic war, nuclear escalation
Royal Society, 10 a Fellowship of more than 1400 outstanding individuals from all areas of
science, mathematics, engineering and medicine, who form a global scientific network of the highest
446
Keerthi Gondi
calibre. The Fellowship is supported by over 130 permanent staff with responsibility for the day-to-day
management of the Society and its activities. [January, 2010, New frontiers in science diplomacy]
Over the next thirty years, foreign policy will be increasingly shaped by the linked challenges of
global sustainability (Lee 2009). Professor John Beddington FRS, the UK Governments Chief Scientific
up-to-date information on the dynamics of the Earths natural and socio-economic systems. Scientists must
also identify where uncertainties exist, or where the evidence base is inadequate
(Royal Society 2005). Probably the best known example of a mechanism for informing policymaking with
scientific advice is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This was established in 1988 by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to
provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential
environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC does not carry out its own original research,
but reviews and produces periodic assessments of recent scientific, technical and socio-economic research.
Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to its work on a voluntary basis. Review is an
essential part of the IPCC process, and differing viewpoints within the scientific community are reflected in
the IPCC reports. In December 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize (jointly with former U S
Vice- President Al Gore) for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made
climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.5
Panel on International Issues (IAP), which represents over 100 of the worlds national academies of science,
and diplomatic, cooperative, or other activities where unambiguous understandings is essential (NAS
give and receive scientific advice The effective use of scientifi c advice in diplomacy requires international
policymakers to have a minimum level of scientifi c literacy, or at least access to others who have it. It also
requires scientists to communicate their work in an accessible and intelligible way, which is sensitive to its
wider policy context. Scientifi c bodies can help to build this capacity: in the US, efforts to increase the
number of scientists serving in the foreign policy community include the Jefferson Science Fellowships,
administered by the National Academies of Science, and the Science Diplomacy Fellowships offered by the
AAAS. Establishing and nurturing links between the scientific and foreign policy communities informs
scientists and policymakers alike: the former about the realities of policymaking; and the latter about the
role and limits of science in policy. Improving the scientifi c capacity of delegations from developing
countries is particularly important, especially for international negotiations on health and climate policy.
For example, health campaigners argue that offi cials from developing countries may lack the necessary
expertise to negotiate technical aspects of the international patent system. The same problem can apply in
complex areas of climate change policy. Scientific bodies can help to address these problems; a recent
example being the partnership between the InterAcademy Panel and the European Climate Foundation,
which convened workshops in Africa, Asia and Latin America to prepare offi cials from countries in these
regions in the run up to the 2009 COP-15 Copenhagen climate change negotiations. In the UK, the Royal
Societys MP-Scientist Pairing Scheme has been running since 2001.
447
Keerthi Gondi
Science diplomacy solves the internal link to every major impact resolves issues
related to warming, resource shortages, economies and public health
Federoff 8 (Nina Federoff, Penn State professor and Obama secretary of
state science and technology adviser, April 2 8. TESTIMONY BEFORE THE
HOUSE SCIENCE SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND SCIENCE EDUCATION
http://gop.science.h...l2/fedoroff.pdf)
The welfare and stability of countries and regions in many parts of the globe
require a concerted effort by the developed world to address the causal
factors that render countries fragile and cause states to fail. Countries that are unable
to defend their people against starvation, or fail to provide economic opportunity, are susceptible to extremist ideologies,
indirectly. Many are blind to political boundaries, becoming regional or global threats. The United States has no monopoly
Addressing
these common challenges demands common solutions and necessitates
scientific cooperation, common standards, and common goals. We must
increasingly harness the power of American ingenuity In science and technology
through strong partnerships with the science community in both academia
and the private sector, in the U.S. and abroad among our allies, to advance
U.S. interests in foreign policy . There are also important challenges to the ability of states to supply their
on knowledge in a globalizing world and the scientific challenges facing humankind are enormous.
populations with sufficient food. The still-growing human population, rising affluence in emerging economies, and other
factors have combined to create unprecedented pressures on global prices of staples such as edible oils and grains.
Encouraging and promoting the use of contemporary molecular techniques in crop improvement is an essential goal for
US science diplomacy.
Amazon DA
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1NC
Uniqueness and Link -- Status quo oil extraction in the
Amazon is restricted by lack of capacity- increasing oil
supply in the Amazon region destroys Amazonian
biodiversity.
Sayer 13 (Jeffrey A., Prof. of Conservation and Development Practice at James Cook University
School of Earth And Environmental Sciences, Member of the Science Council of the CGIAR Consultative
Group, Fellow of International Union for Conservation of Nature, BSc from Hull University, MSc from
University College, DSc from Universidad Autonoma in Spain, Energy demands bite into the Amazon,
World Wildlife Foundation,
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/other_threats/oil_and_gas_extraction_
amazon/, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
Like mining, oil and gas extraction may not reach the geographic scale of logging and mass agriculture,
but the effects of these activities in the Amazon can be felt in a range of ways that are just as problematic.
As demand and the price of oil have soared worldwide, producers have
sought to match the supply at all costs . This means exploring
increasingly inaccessible sites - including in the Amazon - where oil
may be available. But while environmental and social considerations are making timid first
steps in this sector, the oil industry remains as dangerous as ever for
biodiversity and people living in the vicinity of extraction sites.
What are the impacts of oil and gas extraction? Impacts of energy exploration
and extraction may include: Deforestation : To set up their operations, companies
open roads through forests. These bring settlers who have access to
timber and new land, and who may engage in slash-and-burn
activities and logging. Indigenous conflict : Indigenous and local peoples
often gain the least from natural resources extraction, but stand to lose the
most. Compensation from energy firms and the government, where it is
awarded, is often very small. In addition, local communities are not always informed of
extraction projects. Biodiversity loss: Fragmentation of natural habitat
caused by the installation of pipelines, leading to smaller population
sizes that are not viable in the long term. Where oil and gaz companies are
operating close to (or even inside) protected areas, oil companies
may not adopt the needed sound operational practices, and hence
threaten biodiversity. Soil and aquatic pollution: Many things can go
wrong as oil is brought to the surface of the earth and processed.
Spills and toxic by-products are sometimes dumped in the vicinity of
the site or are stored in open waste pits, polluting the surrounding
lands and water. Air pollution : Some of the by-products of natural gas are
burned in the open air. The flames pollute the atmosphere and can
cause fires, threatening the lives of local inhabitants. Unnecessary flaring is also a waste of gas
which could provide energy to local people, reducing deforestation. Moreover, a sudden
availability of funds arising from oil or gas extraction is a mixed blessing.
Where local, national and regional administrations do not have the capacity or
the long-term planning required to manage large budgets, they may go
overboard by investing in ambitious (or dubious) infrastructure projects that do not take into consideration
the sustainable
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Environmentalists are
concerned that the lines will give colonists and developers access to
remote forest areas.
early 1980sthrough sensitive forest areas to Roraima state in Brazil.
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/about_the_amazon
/, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
A region of world records Spanning 6.7 million km2 (twice the size of India) the
Amazon Biome is virtually unrivalled in scale, complexity and
opportunity, and truly is a region distinguished by superlatives. Not
only does the Amazon encompass the single largest remaining tropical
rainforest in the world, it also houses at least 10% of the worlds
known biodiversity, including endemic and endangered flora and fauna, and its river accounts
for 15-16% of the worlds total river discharge into the oceans. The Amazon River flows for more
than 6,600 km, and with its hundreds of tributaries and streams contains the largest
number of freshwater fish species in the world. Natural and cultural diversity
Equally impressive are the unfathomable numbers of mammals,
birds, amphibians, and reptiles4 found across the biome. The Amazon is home to more
than 30 million people living across a vast region subdivided into nine different national political systems.
According to the Coordinator of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin (COICA), about 9% (2.7
million) of the Amazons population is still made up of indigenous people 350 different ethnic groups,
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Uniqueness
452
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453
Keerthi Gondi
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Amazon Biod Up
Deforestation and other environmental impacts are
decreasing now- prefer long term predictive evidencespecifically, Venezuela is decreasing their environmental
impact now.
Monga Bay, 12 (12/6/12, Venezuela: Environmental Profile,
http://rainforests.mongabay.com/20venezuela.htm, organization seeking to raise interest in conservation of
wild lands and wildlife, while examining emerging trends in climate, technology, economics, and finance on
conservation, http://news.mongabay.com/2012/1205-raisg-amazon-atlas.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
assessment of the region's forest cover and drivers of deforestation. While the drop in deforestation in the
938 square kilometers between 2000 and 2005 to just 191 sq km between 2005 and 2010. Brazil (61
percent drop),
Bolivia (17 percent) followed. Brazil experienced the overall largest drop in deforestation in terms of overall
area, going from 138,804 sq km to 54,181 sq km between the two periods. Deforestation increased in
Peru (4 percent), Colombia (32 percent), and French Guiana (40 percent).
Overall
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Links
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Keerthi Gondi
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controlled or managed, particularly in regards to actions of the area's local or indigenous peoples [52]. The report, along with opposition by the
Waorani indigenous people, pressured the Ecuadorian government, which banned Petrobras from building a road into Yasun National Park in
July 2005. The government forced the company to redesign the project without a major access road. As of this writing, Petrobras plans to use
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helicopters to transport all materials, supplies, equipment, and people to and from the well sites, with oil flowing out via a roadless pipeline.
This decision by the Ecuadorian government might set an important precedent for policy: no new oil access roads through wilderness areas. A
major roadless oil project in Ecuador's Block 10 was the region's first example that such development is possible [53], and Block 15 also
features a roadless pipeline with canopy bridges. Elimination of new roads could significantly reduce the impacts of most projects.
almost no regional planning, no analysis of the cumulative and longterm impacts, and no strategic planning for long-term protections
of biodiversity and indigenous peoples . No national parks exist in the region, so there are
no areas strictly off-limits to oil development. Indeed, the mass of oil blocks overlap two lower-level protected areas,
several proposed protected areas, numerous titled indigenous territories, and a proposed Territorial Reserve to protect the
indigenous peoples in voluntary isolation living in the core of the region
. The development of
http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/venezuela/venezuela_country_brief.html, Keerthi,
Accessed 8/30/13)
Despite a number of flagship foreign investment projects, restoring
and sustaining investor confidence remains an important issue in
Venezuela. This is unlikely to occur in the near term however, as a
challenging operating environment and uncertainty over contract
and property rights persists. In July 2012, Venezuela joined Mercosur the Southern
Common Market formed in 1991 between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Venezuelas
membership of Mercosur expanded the market to 270 million people with a gross domestic product worth
US$3.3 trillion. Venezuela assumed the Presidency of the trading bloc in July 2013. Economic outlook
Venezuela's main source of income continues to be Petroleos de Venezuela ( PDVSA), the state-owned
2009 and 1.5 per cent in 2010. Venezuelas economy grew by 5.6 per cent in 2012, but is forecast to grow
by only 0.1 per cent in 2013. High inflation, falling public expenditure due to volatile oil prices, a weak
investment outlook and deteriorating infrastructure are contributing factors to this slowdown.
The
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United States is PDVSAs main full cash export market. Most other
exports go to political allies that receive oil shipments on long-term
credit agreements at concessionary interest rates (such as
Nicaragua or Cuba), or constitute payments for previously received
loans (as in the case of China). The company has also revived plans to expand natural gas
production for export to Argentina.
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There are now ~180 oil and gas blocks covering ~688,000 km2 of
forest in the western Amazon (Figure 2). At least 35 multinational oil and gas companies operate
these blocks, which overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon for
amphibians, birds, and mammals (Figure 3). Oil and gas projects affect the
forest of all western Amazonian nations, but to varying degrees. For example, in both
Ecuador and Peru blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon, while in Colombia that fraction is less than onetenth. In Bolivia and western Brazil, historical impacts are minimal, but
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(labeled in Figure 4), the former of which has recently begun its development phase [40]. Gas development
the 40 blocks leased out over the last four years begin operations on the ground. In 2007 alone, the
government approved the Environmental Impact Studies (EIS, see below) for 10 blocks that are set to
begin immediate seismic testing and drilling of exploratory wells.
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Chief Executive Jean Cahuzac said in explaining cost increases of between $250 million and $300 million at
and gas ambitions make it a hard place for international contractors to ignore. The country's giant 2006
oil discovery, where Petrobras is principle operator, hailed a rush into Latin America's largest economy by
oil service companies, whose expertise and equipment allows oil companies to explore and develop fields.
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465
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Amazon is delayed,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jul/30/forests-energy, Keerthi,
Accessed 8/30/13)
The controversial exploitation of heavy crude oil from one of the most
inaccessible, most biodiverse regions of the Peruvian rainforest inhabited by
indigenous people in "voluntary isolation" has been delayed. Anglo-French oil company
Perenco, partnered by Vietnam's state oil company, PetroVietnam, was
scheduled to start producing oil this month, but Perenco's head of communications,
Nicolas de Blanpr, now says that "production is expected to start later in 2013." When the oil was
declared commercially-viable in December 2006, before Perenco became involved, Peru's then president
Alan Garca visited the region, called the oil a "miracle", and said it would turn Peru into a net oil exporter
and save the country US$1bn a year. Others were equally positive, with Aurelio Ochoa, later the chairman
of Perupetro, calling it the "biggest energy discovery in Peru's history after the Camisea gas fields" and the
then Minister of Energy subsequently saying it had reignited interest in exploring for oil in Peru. Perenco
took over operations in January 2008 and now intends to drill 185 wells and build a 207km pipeline to
exploit an estimated 217 million barrels of oil, but the company's activities have consistently attracted
controversy. According to a recent report by Peruvian NGO CooperAccion, the oil in this region is "one of
the most important hydrocarbon deposits in the country" and Lot 67, as Perenco's concession is known, is
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slowed to a near standstill in the first months of this year, and the Kremlin is now preparing to dip into its
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Impacts
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2NC Overview
Amazon rainforest is on the brink of environmental
collapse- human impacts like deforestation are destroying
the region. Oil extraction is the reason South American
countries go into the region and exploit the environmentthey want more resources. Specifically, increasing
Venezuelan capacity makes them go into the Amazonthats Monga Bay. That causes extinction because it
impacts all forests and destroys all natural cycles and
oxygen flow, accelerating climate change- Amazon is key
and fragile- thats WWF 13. It outweighs1- Magnitude- it causes extinction- that analysis is above.
2- Timeframe and probability- Amazon is fragile and
causes extinction by 2100 if we dont act.
Discovery News 9 (June 29, Rainforests are more Fragile than
Estimated, http://www.amazonrainforestnews.com/2009/06/rainforests-morefragile-than-estimated.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
The Amazon rainforest, one of the planet's most precious and besieged natural resources, is
even more fragile than realized.
threat
there is one
major
existential
to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action. It is
the threat of global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. Scientists worldwide have been observing the
gathering of this threat for three decades now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty. Indeed
not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic
warming is occurring. In legitimate scientific circles, writes Elizabeth Kolbert, it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over
the fundamentals of global warming. Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly, as this
sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts brutal droughts, floods and violent storms across the planet over the next
century; climate change could literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and
malaria; glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected, andworldwide, plants are blooming several
days earlier than a decade ago; rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive
hurricanes; NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a
close second; Earths warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year as disease
spreads; widespread bleaching from Texas to Trinidadkilled broad swaths of corals due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. The world
is slowly disintegrating, concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq, who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. They call it climate changebut we
just call it breaking up. From the founding of the first cities some 6,000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon
dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At present they are accelerating toward
400 ppm, and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century, so
there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we are thus in for significant global warming; the only debate is how
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much and how serious the effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted above show, we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree
warming in more violent storms, spread of disease, mass die offs of plants and animals, species extinction, and threatened inundation of lowlying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice
sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolinas outer banks, swamp the southern third of
Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village. Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic
thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. Economist William Cline
once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually; severe warming could
cost 13-26 percent of GDP. But the most frightening scenario is
runaway
greenhouse
feedback from the buildup of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. Past ice age
transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures, took place in just decades, even though no one was
then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that humankinds
continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earths climate and humanitys life
support system. At worst, says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New York University, were just going to burn everything up; were going to
heat the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles, and then everything will collapse.
During the Cold War, astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied
States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries but possible end life on this planet. Global
Cold War eras
at least
better supported scientifically . Over the long run it puts dangers form terrorism and
traditional military challenges to shame. It is a threat not only to the security and prosperity to
the United States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.
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A2 No Spillover
Extend 1NC WWFthe Amazon is the key to ALL forests
and life systems on the planet. It produces billions of tons
of oxygen yearly for respiration and breathing, and owns
the largest number and diversity of species on the planetit is incredibly fragile. Harmful impacts in one area would
definitely spill over to the next and devastate the entire
region.
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Turns Agriculture
Climate change badtemperature spikes massively harm
crop yieldsdiscussions of how a rise in average
temperate affects crop yields ignore effects of peak
temperature
The Economist, 2011, One Degree Over, March 17,
http://www.economist.com/node/18386161/, last accessed 7.2.12
FOR a scientist, there are few happier accidents than finding a trove of data that were gathered for other
David Lobell, a
researcher at Stanford University, when he started talking to Marianne
Bnziger of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre, in Mexico, about how
climate change would affect crops in Africa.
purposes, but which apply to your pet problem. That happened to
Dr Bnziger and her colleagues had been running an ambitious set of field trials designed to look at what
sorts of maize (corn, to Americans) grow best in various parts of southern and eastern Africa, paying
special attention to drought resistance. They were struggling, though, to find the money to pull the results
Lobell realised
he could also use the result to correlate yields with
meteorological conditions other than drought, and thus reveal
any harm done by hotter-than-usual weather. His conclusions,
published this week in Nature Climate Change, confirm for the tropics the findings
for temperate climes of a recent American study. This is that
peak, rather than average, temperatures are what matter most
from 123 separate research stations together into one big, tractable database. Dr
that if he helped them
to maize.
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Turns Bio-D
Climate change badeven if it saves some species, more
will go extinctionour evidence is comparative
AP, 2012 , Seth Borenstein, St. Louis Today, Global Warming Benefits Once-Rare Butterfly, May 25,
http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/global-warming-benefits-once-rare-butterfly/article_8181ac9b-cd715894-a782-1ce6e05cad9d.html, last accessed 7.2.12
warming
helping the brown Argus is unusual compared with other
species, and that's why scientists are studying it more, said study co-author Jane Hill, a professor of
ecology at the University of York. Biologists expect climate change to create
winners and losers in species. Stanford University biologist
Terry Root, who wasn't part of this study, estimated that for every winner like
the brown Argus there are three loser species, like the cuckoo bird in Europe. Hill
agreed that it's probably a 3-1 ratio of climate change losers to
winners. As the world warms, the key interactions between
species break down because the predator and prey may not
change habitats at the same time, meaning some species will
move north to cooler climes and won't find enough to eat, Root
said. "There
Root said.
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Turns Economy
Warming turns econ---disasters, infrastructure, hidden
costs, inequalities.
Center for Integrative Economic Research, Oct. 2007, The US
Economic Impacts of Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction, by the Univ.
of Maryland, http://www.cier.umd.edu/documents/US%20Economic
%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of
%20Inaction.pdf, DOA 7/3/13
Lesson 1: economic impacts of climate change will occur throughout the country. The effects of
climate change will be felt by the entire nation: all sectors of the
economy - most notably agriculture, energy, and transportation - will be affected; essential
infrastructures that afford us reliable services and high standards of living (such as water supply
and water treatment) will be impacted; and ecosystems, on which quality of
life relies (such as forests, rivers, and lakes), will suffer . In theWest and Northwest,climate
change is expected to alter precipitation patterns and snow pack, thereby increasing
the risk of forest fires . Forest fires cost billions of dollars to suppress, and
can result in significant loss of property .The Oakland, California fire of 1991 and the
fires in San Diego and San Bernardino Counties in 2003 each cost over $2 billion . Every year for the past
four years, over 7 million acres of forests in the National Forest System have burned with annual
suppression costs of $1 .3 billion or more .
suffer particularly from increased frequency and severity of flooding and drought events,
causing billions of dollars in damages to crops and property . For example, the North
Dakota Red River floods in 3 1 Executive Summary 1997 caused $1 billion in agricultural production
losses, and the Midwest floods of 1993 inflicted $6-8 billion in damages to farmers alone . The
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region will see increased vulnerability to sea level rise and storms .
Depending on the category of the event, evacuation costs for the Northeast region may range,
for a single event, between $2 and $6 .5 billion . Since 1980, there have been 70 natural weathercaused disasters, with damages to coastal infrastructure exceeding $1 billion per event . Taken
together, their combined impact surpassed $560 billion in damages .
Decreased precipitation levels in the South and Southwest will strain water resources for agriculture,
industry and households . For the agriculturally productive Central Valley in California alone, the estimated
economy-wide loss during the driest years is predicted to be around $6 billion per year . Net agricultural
income for the San Antonio Texas Edwards Aquifer region is predicted to decline by 16-29% by 2030 and by
The true
economic impact of climate change is fraught with hidden costs .
Besides the replacement value of infrastructure, for example, there are
real costs of re-routing traffic, workdays and productivity lost,
provision of temporary shelter and supplies, potential relocation and
re- training costs, and others . Likewise, the increased levels of
uncertainty and risk, brought about by climate change, impose new
costs on the insurance, banking, and investment industries, as well
as complicate the planning processes for the agricultural and
manufacturing sectors and for public works projects . Since the early 1990s,
30-45% by 2090 because of competing uses for an increasingly scarce resource water .
and especially during the 21st century, significant progress has been made in understanding the impacts
of climate change at national, regional, and local scales .These studies, many of which are discussed in the
pages that follow, highlight physical processes that influence transportation, energy and water supply
systems, agriculture and forestry, fisheries, tourism, and other important economic sectors .There is,
however, a lack of research that quantifies and compares these impacts, and a deficiency in using what is
known about climate impacts to guide adaptation actions from the national level down to the local level .
Thus, the full economic costs will likely be much higher than what is reported currently . Lesson 2.
economic impacts will be unevenly distributed across regions and within the economy and society. Not all
regions or sectors of the country will be equally affected by climate impacts because of differences in
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climatic, economic and social conditions whose interplay influences coping capacities . For example, in the
Northeast, the maple sugar industry a $31 million industry - is expected to suffer losses of between 15
and 40% ($5-12 million) in annual revenue due to decreased sap flow .The region can expect a decrease of
10- 20% in skiing days, resulting in a loss of $405-810 million per year .The dairy industry is also highly
sensitive to temperature changes, since the dairy cows productivity starts decreasing above 77F (25C) .
In California, an annual loss of $287-902 million is expected for this $4 .1 billion industry . Losses are
expected to the $3 .2 billion California wine industry as well, since grape quality diminishes with higher
temperatures . In each case, these may be considered small niche sectors in their respective economies
accounting for less than one-tenth of gross state product yet they are an essential element of local
employment, history, culture and landscape .
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climate change will also affect food prices. Citing World Bank data, it says those
prices jumped 8% in the first quarter of 2012, partly due to extreme
cold in Europe that affected wheat crops and excessive heat in South
America that lower production of sugar, maize and soybeans. Another
report, published today in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, suggests several solutions to
climate change and food shortages: farm efficiency, food waste recycling and lower meat consumption.
These changes could reduce the amount of land needed for farming, despite population growth, and leave
sufficient land to produce bio-energy, according to the study from the University of Exeter in the United
Kingdom.
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management organizations (RFMOs), meeting annually to set fishing limits and other management rules, present an ideal
venue in which to address climate change impacts on marine fisheries. Indeed, some RFMOssuch as the International
Scientific Committee to take action, and ensured that climate change would appear on all future CCAMLR annual agendas. 8
Although CCAMLR was the only RFMO to directly address climate change in 2007, eight of the 17 RFMOs have addressed
climate change in at least one annual meeting since 1992. This article seeks to explain when and why RFMOs move beyond
their classic management approachesassignment of property rights, catch limits, and gear restrictionsto include climate
change in their research and management plans. Variation in RFMO approaches to climate change provides an opportunity
to understand member state and secretariat behavior surrounding linkage politics.
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Turns Hegemony
Warming turns Heg multiple reasons.
Jill Fitzsimmons, May 30 2012, researcher on Media Matters' energy and
environment team. She holds a B.S. in Political Science from Santa Clara
University, cites 15 former military generals; 15 Military Leaders Who Say
Climate Change Is A National Security Threat;
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/05/30/15-military-leaders-who-sayclimate-change-is-a/184705, DOA 7/3/13
Republicans in Congress are attempting to prevent the military from purchasing alternative fuels, which Senator Inhofe (R-OK) believes are
merely "perpetrating President Obama's global warming fantasies and his war on affordable energy." And conservative media are backing the
attacks on climate change and clean energy programs, suggesting that these investments come at the expense of national security. But
Here are 15 current and former national security officials in their own words on the threat of climate change: Thomas Fingar, former chairman
of President Bush's National Intelligence Council: "We judge global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security
interests over the next 20 years ... We judge that the most significant impact for the United States will be indirect and result from climatedriven effects on many other countries and their potential to seriously affect US national security interests." Brig. General Steven Anderson,
USA (Ret.), former Chief of Logistics under General Petraeus and a self-described "conservative Republican": "Our oil addiction, I believe, is our
relief." Robert Gates, former Secretary of Defense: "Over the next 20 years and more, certain pressures-population, energy, climate,
economic, environmental-could combine with rapid cultural, social, and technological change to produce new sources of deprivation, rage, and
instability." General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret.), former Army chief of staff: "Climate change is a national security issue. We found that
climate instability will lead to instability in geopolitics and impact American military operations around the world." Vice Admiral Dennis
between climate change, national security, and instability and have begun strategic plans and programs to both mitigate and adapt to the
most likely and serious effects in key areas around the globe." General Anthony Zinni, USMC (Ret.), former Commander-in-Chief of U.S.
Central Command and special envoy to Israel and Palestine under President George W. Bush: "It's not hard to make the connection between
climate change and instability, or climate change and terrorism." Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret.): "Climate change will provide the
conditions that will extend the war on terror." General Chuck Wald, USAF (Ret.), former Deputy Commander of U.S. European Command under
President George W. Bush: "People can say what they want to about whether they think climate change is manmade or not, but there's a
problem there and the military is going to be a part of the solution. It's a national security issue because it affects the stability of certain places
in the world." Brig. General Bob Barnes, USA (Ret.): "While most people associate global warming with droughts, rising sea levels, declining
food production, species extinction and habitat destruction, fewer connect these impacts to increasing instability around the globe and the
resulting threats to our national security. But the connection - and the threat it poses - is real and growing." Vice Admiral Richard Truly, USN
(Ret.), former NASA administrator: "The stresses that climate change will put on our national security will be different than any we've dealt
with in the past." General Paul Kern, USA (Ret.), Commander of the United States Army Materiel Command under President George W. Bush:
"The planning we do that goes into organizing, training, and equipping our military considers all the risks that we may face. And one of the
risks we see right now is climate change." Admiral John Nathman, USN (Ret.), former Commander of the U.S. Fleet Forces Command under
President George W. Bush: "There are serious risks to doing nothing about climate change. We can pay now or we're going to pay a whole lot
later. The U.S. has a unique opportunity to become energy independent, protect our national security and boost our economy while reducing
our carbon footprint. We've been a model of success for the rest of the world in the past and now we must lead the way on climate change."
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.): "The national security community is rightly worried about climate change because of the magnitude of its
expected impacts around the globe, even in our own country ... Climate change poses a clear and present danger to the United States of
America. But if we respond appropriately, I believe we will enhance our security, not simply by averting the worst climate change impacts, but
by spurring a new energy revolution." The Pentagon recognizes that our dependence on oil is problematic not only because of the threat of
climate change, but also because of volatile oil prices and supply disruptions that can threaten the military's energy supply. It's Operational
Energy Strategy states: The volatility of oil prices will continue to be a budgetary challenge for the Department, and the realities of global oil
markets mean a disruption of oil supplies is plausible and increasingly likely in the coming decades. The Services have already taken steps to
certify aircraft, ships, tactical vehicles, and support equipment to use alternative liquid fuels, a prudent insurance policy against future oil
supply disruptions and high prices. The Army also notes that
in a warzone.
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<<Some weather extremes arent deadly, however. Sometimes, they are just strange. Report co-author
University said this study gives a unique global perspective on recent fire patterns and their relationship to
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geopolitical situation in
the Arctic region has become complex and nuanced, despite the area being essentially
ignored since the end of the Cold War," the experts wrote. In order to protect U.S. interests, they added,
"the Navy should begin Arctic training and the Marine Corps should also reestablish a cold-weather training
they added.
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THIS BOOK IS AN ATTEMPT, peering through a glass darkly, to understand the politics
and the strategies of the potentially apocalyptic crisis that looks set to occupy most of
the twentyfirst century. There are now many books available that deal with the science
of climate change and some that suggest pos sible approaches to getting the problem
under control, but there are few that venture very far into the grim detail of how real
countries experiencing very different and, in some cases, overwhelming pressures as
global warming proceeds, are likely to respond to the changes. Yet we all know that it's
mostly politics, national and international, that will decide the outcomes. Two things in
particular persuaded me that it was time to write this book. One was the realization that
the first and most important impact of climate change on human civilization
will be an acute and permanent crisis of food supply. Eating regularly
is a non-negotiable activity, and countries that cannot feed their people
are unlikely to be "reasonable" about it. Not all of them will be in what we
used to call the "Third World" -the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin
America. The other thing that finally got the donkey's attention was a dawning
country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter "threats" to
There is a
probability of wars, including even nuclear wars , if temperatures rise
its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming.
two to three degrees Celsius. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation
to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window.
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International Security Vol. 36, No. 3 pg 79-106 Climate Wars? Assessing the
Claim That Drought Breeds Conflct) CKP
Climate change is hot. Twice in recent years, the Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to environmental
activists: in 2004 to Wangari Maathai and in 2007 to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore. In April 2007, the UN Security Council held
its first ever debate on climate security. The chair of this debate, then British Foreign Secretary Margaret
Becket, left no doubt as to the connection between climate and confict: What
makes wars
start? Fights over water. Changing patterns of rainfall. Fights over
food production, land use.1 In the same year, a report by eleven retired U.S. generals and
admirals stated that environmental security is no longer soft politics,
concluding that climate change is a threat multiplier for instability
and confict that will have repercussions for all.2 And in a speech to the UN on
September 22, 2009, U.S. President and Nobel laureate Barack Obama asserted that the threat
from climate changes is serious, it is urgent, and it is growing, as
more frequent droughts and crop failures breed hunger and
confict.3 Surely, such statements must be based on solid scientific evidencemuch in the same
manner as the natural sciences inform the debate on likely physical changes? Not so. As a matter of fact,
attempt to catch up with the rhetoric. At the heart of the climate security discourse lies the issue of water
unclear whether these cases are exceptions or whether they epitomize a more systematic pattern of
resource scarcity and conflict, in general, and drought and violent conflict, in particular.6
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health concerned are shared by more than 120 health organizations including the American Academy of
Pediatrics, American Lung Association, American Medical Association, American Nurses Association,
American Public Health Association, American Thoracic Society, and others who favor reductions in carbon
pollution to protect public health. These organizations identified a number of serious health harms from
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Turns Terrorism
Warming turns terror
Jill Fitzsimmons, May 30 2012, researcher on Media Matters' energy and
environment team. She holds a B.S. in Political Science from Santa Clara
University, cites 15 former military generals; 15 Military Leaders Who Say
Climate Change Is A National Security Threat;
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/05/30/15-military-leaders-who-sayclimate-change-is-a/184705, DOA 7/3/13
Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn, USN (Ret.): "If the destabilizing effects of climate
change go unchecked, we can expect more frequent, widespread,
and intense failed state scenarios creating large scale humanitarian
disasters and higher potential for conflict and terrorism ... The
Department of Defense and national intelligence communities recognize this clear
link between climate change, national security, and instability and have
begun strategic plans and programs to both mitigate and adapt to the most likely and serious effects in
key areas around the globe."
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Turns Relations/Instability
Turns instability and relationsstudies prove climate
cycles drive war and conflicts, empirically proven
Schiermeier, editor and writer for Nature specializing in policy and climate studies, degree in
geography, statistics and economics from University of Munich, 2011, Quirin, Nature Magazine,
Climate cycles drive civil war, August 24,
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.501.html, last accessed 7.3.12
of several popular books have previously proposed a link, but there are disagreements within the scientific
literature over whether a robust climate signal can be detected in conflict statistics. Previous studies have
focused on the question of how anthropogenic climate change might increase conflict risk. A 2009 study2
by economist Marshall Burke at the University of California, Berkeley, and his co-workers found that the
probability of armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa was about 50% higher than normal in some unusually
warm years since 1981. But critics point to statistical problems for instance when linking possibly
random local temperature and rainfall variations with outbreaks of civil war that may have resulted in a
an economist
currently at Princeton University in New Jersey, and his colleagues opted to look
at how historical changes in the global, rather than local, climate
affect conflict risk1. Clear signal The team designed a 'quasi-experiment' for which they
divided the world into regions strongly affected by the ENSO the
tropical parts of South America, Africa and the AsiaPacific region, including parts of Australia and
regions only weakly affected by it. They then searched for a link
between climate and armed conflicts that arose in the first group
between 1950 and 2004. A very clear signal appeared in the data. The
team found that the risk of annual civil conflict doubles, from 3% to 6%, in
countries of the ENSO-affected, or 'teleconnected', group during El Nino
years relative to La Nia years. In many cases, conflicts that might have broken out
anyway may have occurred earlier owing to the effects of El Nio, Hsiang suggests.
false appearance of causality. To overcome this problem, Solomon Hsiang,
Civil conflicts have been by far the most common form of organized political violence in recent decades,
Hsiang says. Globally, one-fifth of the 240 or so civil conflicts since 1950 could be linked to the 47-year
climate cycle originating in the southern Pacific, the study concludes. The results were unaffected by any
modification to the statistical set-up of the analysis such as excluding particularly crisis-prone African
"A doubling of
risk is a very strong effect," says Halvard Buhaug, a conflict researcher with the Peace
countries which the team performed to confirm the robustness of their findings.
Research Institute Oslo, who was not involved in the study. Buhaug, who has previously criticized3 claims
such as Burke's, says he feels "surprised and a bit puzzled" by the results. He grants that the study is "very
competently executed" but adds that the issue is nonetheless far from being settled. "I don't dismiss that a
correlation exists, but it is a correlation we so far don't understand," he says. "I remain sceptical about any
potential causal connection." A more detailed analysis of the 'narratives' of historical conflicts that have
occurred during El Nio years is needed to establish whether any factors that may have caused these
conflicts such as harvest failures that led to food shortages can be traced to El Nio events, he says.
Greenhouse effects The authors of the study are aware of its limitation and of the difficulties involved in
proposed as to how one phenomenon causes the other, and we aren't sure yet what the correct narrative
is," he says. "It
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levels that can trigger violence. Furthermore, psychologists think that aggressive
behaviour gets generally more widespread during exceptionally
warm conditions."
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prosperity) of a nonviolent nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action. It is the threat
global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends.
Scientists worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three
decades now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty.
Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in
refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic
warming is occurring. In legitimate scientific circles, writes Elizabeth Kolbert, it is
virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the
fundamentals of global warming. Evidence from a vast international
scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly, as this sample of
newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts brutal droughts,
floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century; climate change
could literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge portions of Alpine
Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria; glaciers in the Antarctic
of
and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected, andworldwide, plants are blooming several days
earlier than a decade ago; rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in
the most destructive hurricanes; NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that
2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a close second; Earths warming climate is estimated to
contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year as disease spreads; widespread
bleaching from Texas to Trinidadkilled broad swaths of corals due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. The
world is slowly disintegrating, concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq, who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle.
They call it climate changebut we just call it breaking up. From the founding of the first cities some 6,000
years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained
relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm, and by
2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a
century, so there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we are thus in for significant
global warming; the only debate is how much and how serous the effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted
above show, we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms, spread of
disease, mass die offs of plants and animals, species extinction, and threatened inundation of low-lying countries
like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolinas
outer banks, swamp the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village.
Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter
weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. Economist William Cline once estimated the
damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually; severe
Past ice age transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures, took
place in just decades, even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the
humankinds
continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to
playing Russian roulette with the earths climate and humanitys life
support system. At worst, says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New York University, were just
atmosphere. Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that
going to burn everything up; were going to het the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the
Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles, and then everything will collapse.
During the Cold War, astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a
thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries
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indigenous peoples
Collective indifference to these conditions on the part of both white and black America is a poor reflection
on the nations character. This collective refusal to acknowledge the genocide further exacerbates the
aftermath in Native communities and hinders the recovery process. This, too, sets the American situation
apart from the German-Jewish situation: Holocaust denial is seen by most of the world as an affront to the
But
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dawn of a new millennium, is not the culture, tradition, and survival of one
population on one continent oneitherside of the Atlantic. What is at stake is
the very future of the human species. LaDuke, in her most recent work, contextualizes the
issues from a contemporary perspective: Our experience of survival and resistance is
shared with many others. But it is not only about Native people. . . . In the
final analysis, the survival of Native America is fundamentally about the
collective survival of all human beings. The question of who gets to
determine the destiny of the land, and of the people who live on itthose
with the money or those who pray on the landis a question that is alive
throughout society.57 There is, as LaDuke reminds us, a direct relationship
between the loss of cultural diversity and the loss of biodiversity. Wherever
Indigenous peoples still remain, there is also a corresponding enclave of
biodiversity.58But, she continues, The last 150 years have seen a great holocaust. There have
been more species lost in the past 150 years than since the Ice Age. (During
the same time, Indigenous peoples have been disappearing from the face of
the earth. Over 2,000 nations of Indigenous peoples have gone extinct in the
western hemisphere and one nation disappears from the Amazon rainforest
every year.)59 It is not about us as indigenous peoplesit is about us as a human spe- cies. We
are all related. At issue is no longer the Jewish question or the Indian problem. We must speak
today in terms of the human problem. And it is this problem for which not a final,
but a sustainable, viable solution must be found because it is no longer a matter of
serial genocide, it has become one of collective suicide. As Terrence Des Pres put it, in The
Survivor: At the heart of our problems is that nihilism which was all along the
destiny of Western culture: a nihilism either unacknowledged even as the
bombs fell or else, as with Hitler or Stalin, demonically proclaimed as the
new salvation.60 All of us must now begin thinking and acting in the
dimension and in the interest of the human speciesan intellectual domain
of vita activa that indigenous people have inhabited since time immemorial.
It is this modality of thought as a process of reflection that the civilized
nations must learn from the savage ones. Vine Deloria, in Native American
Spirituality, has attempted to clarify this distinction: American Indians look backwards in time to the
creation of the world and view reality from the perspective of the one species that has the capability to
reflect on the meaning of things. This attitude is generally misunderstood by non-Indians who act as if
reflection and logical thought were synonymous. But reflection is a special art and requires maturity of
personality, certainty of identity, and feelings of equality with the other life forms of the world. It consists,
more precisely, of allowing wisdom to approach rather than seeking answers to self-generated questions.
Such an attitude, then, stands in a polar- ized position to the manner in which society today conducts
itself.61 It is not a matter of moral bookkeeping or of winners and losers in the battle of the most
martyred minority. It is not a matter of comparative victimology, but one of collective survival. The
insistence on incomparability and unique- ness of the Nazi Holocaust is precisely what prohibits our
collective compre- hension of genocide as a phenomenon of Western civilization, not as a re- iterative
series of historical events, each in its own way unique. It is what inhibits our ability to name causes,
anticipate outcomes, and, above all to en- gage in preemptive political and intellectual action in the face
of contemporary exigencies.
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But I am not
concerned with the characteristics of the state but rather the
essence of the state the people. Without a people there would
be no state or legal system. With genocide eventually there will
be no people. Genocide is ultimately a threat to the existence of
all. True, sometimes only certain groups are targeted, as in Nazi Germany. Sometimes a large part of the total population is
reality not all people have an equal voice in the formation of the characteristics of the state.
eradicated, as in contemporary Cambodia. Sometimes people are eliminated regardless of national origin the Christians in Roman
times. Sometimes whole nations vanish the Amerindian societies after the Spanish conquest. And sometimes religious groups are
persecuted the Mohammedans by the Crusaders. The culprit changes: sometimes it is a specific state, or those in power in a state;
occasionally it is the winners vs. the vanquished in international conflicts; and in its crudest form the stronger against the weaker.
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Brain Drain DA
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NAFTA DA
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Border TI 1NC
NAFTA is failing now - Lack of investment in
transportation infrastructure is the Achilles heel of NAFTA
the plan is key to prevent collapse
Michael C. McClintock (Professor of Law, Gonzaga University School of Law) 2007 NAFTA'S
13TH YEAR: STEADILY INCREASING TRADE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO, TRANSPORTATION
INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS, BUILDING A "DRY CANAL" ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND MORE 14 Sw. J.L. &
Trade Am. 25, Lexis
Transportation infrastructure is a significant portion of a nation's wealth so long as efficient freight
movement over that system is maintained. n95 In fact, the emergence of highly integrated just-in-time
inventory strategies in the United States was made possible by fast, reliable trucking services. n96 But
The increased
emphasis on meeting delivery windows and reducing the amount of
inventory maintained on site heightens the need for a [*42]
transportation system that provides the reliability, transit time,
efficiency, cost and damage minimization sought. When the transportation
success may have sown the seeds for disaster. As one report warned,
system cannot meet these parameters, then the cost to the economic well-being of the country can be
tremendous. n97 The result has been that freight volumes have grown dramatically and are expected to
"historically the U.S. has been a world leader in freight system design and management, ... in recent years
it has become alarmingly apparent that investment to maintain and improve our aging transportation
system has not kept pace with the burgeoning growth in freight flows." n100 This author concluded that
if "we don't start fixing it, we'll be in big troub le." n101 Simply put, the U.S.
transportation system has not kept pace with the growth in freight transportation and now faces serious
overcapacity and congestion issues. n102 These themes are echoed throughout many studies. [*43] B.
Inadequate Capacity "Clearly, more traffic is moving over essentially the same highway infrastructure."
n103 When demand outstrips supply, the result is congestion which can have devastating effects on speed
and reliability. n104 Congestion has been described as insidious. "One, you lose productivity because you
can't move, and two, you're burning up fuel and using driver hours," one trucking company executive
explained. n105 The U.S. General Accounting Office ("GAO") said that in 1999, congestion adversely
impacted truck-driver productivity; n106 in 2000, congestion on U.S. highways was bad; n107 in 2003,
insufficient and aged infrastructure was a major contributor to freight congestion and bottlenecks; n108
and in 2005, congestion was getting worse. n109 In 2006, the GAO said even more emphatically:
Increasing passenger travel and freight movement have led to growing congestion, and decision makers
face the challenge of maintaining the nation's mobility while preventing congestion from overwhelming the
transportation system. Successfully addressing mobility needs in the face of growing congestion requires
both strategic and intermodal approaches ... . n110 Mike Eskew, CEO of United Parcel Service, recently
told business leaders that "the inability of our transportation infrastructure to keep up with the normal dayto-day stresses imposed upon it was shocking." He further warned that America was risking its future by
neglecting its infrastructure. n111 One high-profile group has been even blunter: America's long and
successful ride to prosperity is threatened by a transportation infrastructure incapable of meeting future
requirements. The interdependent network of roads, bridges, and terminals is growing increasingly
antiquated, congested and disconnected, [*44] and therefore, incapable of providing the productivity and
prosperity support upon which the nation has depended for the last century and a half. n112 Another
analysis has been equally pessimistic: There is no doubt in anyone's mind that long-haul trucking can no
longer keep pace with the skyrocketing demand for commercial transportation in the U.S... . nor are
prospects hopeful. "It is unlikely that highway capacity will expand rapidly in the coming decades ...
current annual revenues will suffice only to maintain the highway system, not provide significant new
capacity." The bottom line: highway congestion will worsen, the speed and reliability of truck freight
The United
States already loses $ 200 billion a year due to congestion and
bottlenecks. n114 Today, this remains the number one problem for over-the-road freight companies
transportation will deteriorate, and costs to shippers and receivers may rise. n113
and their drivers. As one freight commentator has noted, "Highways are our assembly line. You cannot
decouple economic growth from transportation growth." n115 The demand for intermodal freight will
increase by 78% in the next decade, which means that at least $ 5 billion will have to be invested in
infrastructure just to keep up. n116 The United States is rapidly exhausting its land-side transportation
capacity. n117
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and Mexico has grown 232%, n118 yet neither country has made the
adjustments necessary to handle the growing traffic. n119 NAFTA has
steadily increased the demand for transportation infrastructure and
services - [*45] although its text gives this subject scant attention.
However, transportation issues have now become more and more
visible. Rising logistic costs may well prove to be the last remaining
barrier to NAFTA free trade. n120 One astute commentator has connected the dots: It is
the quality of the transportation infrastructure that will ultimately determine competitiveness, economic
and the basic understanding that the economic future of all three nations are intrinsically linked ... . n121
The full benefits of NAFTA can not be fully realized until the
overland transportation system linking the U.S. and Mexico is
modernized. n122 One author places these costs at more than $ 1.3 trillion. 123 Currently, however,
there continues to be no continental strategy for upgrading and
expanding NAFTA's transportation grid.
<Impact>
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Non-Border 1NC
NAFTA is failing now.
Brian Lustig and Nan Gibson, 2013, NAFTA a failure thus far, group
reports Economic Policy Institute, Lustig used to direct media relations for
the EPI and has a BA in International Affairs from Emory and an MA in
International Relations from GWU, Nan Gibson is at the EPI;
http://www.epi.org/publication/press_releases_failedexppr/, KTG
Washington, D.C. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has failed to perform as
promised and should be repealed or significantly restructured , reports a
coalition of six policy-research organizations. Although NAFTA has benefited some sectors of the economy, its
overall impact on working families in the three signatory countries
the United States, Canada, and Mexico has been negative. In
anticipation of the release by President Clinton of a congressionally mandated comprehensive study on the operation and
effects of NAFTA, the group has prepared a report that examines the overall impact of NAFTA since its implementation.
The Failed Experiment: NAFTA at Three Years evaluates the promised benefits of the agreement in several broad areas:
the general economies of the participating countries, the living standards of their populations, labor relations throughout
In
the United States, NAFTA: * Put downward pressure on wages and living
standards; * Created deep and probably chronic trade deficits with its neighbors; *
Displaced more than 400,000 jobs; * Weakened workers rights and reduced
employee bargaining power; * Exacerbated environmental and public-health
damage along the U.S.-Mexico border; * Compromised food safety standards; and
* Increased drug trafficking due to insufficient border inspections and heavier truck traffic from
Mexico. In Mexico, NAFTA: * Precipitated the 1994 peso collapse , which led to
an economic depression; * Eliminated more than 2 million jobs; * Reduced real
hourly wages by 27% from 1994 levels; * Caused the failure of more than 28,000
small businesses; and * Weakened labor standards and increased violations of worker
rights. Canada, too, has suffered the continued effects of a recession
that began in 1989 with the ratification of the original U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The effective
North America, and the continents environment. It finds that NAFTA has fallen far short in each of these areas.
merger with the U.S. economy has increased unemployment and forced Canada to begin to dismantle its longstanding
social safety net, resulting in falling standards of living for the average Canadian.
<Link>
<Impact>
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2NC OV
Extend McClintock NAFTA fails now and is on the way out
because of lack of trade systems between the US and
Mexico. NAFTA has increased demand for infrastructure
and services, and rising logistics costs is the last barrier
to full NAFTA free trade. The full benefits cant be realized
until the transportation system is fully modernized.
Congestion worsens the ability of NAFTA to fully function.
The plan obviously reverses this, which our evidence
indicates would revitalize NAFTA.
Framing Issue if they win that NAFTA is doing fine now
that means their aff is non-inherent. Our McClintock
evidence indicates that NAFTA can only do well if the
transportation system is functioning.
Impact outweighs
Turns case - NAFTA destroys the Mexican economy and
increases violence.
Catie Duckworth, June 19 2012, The Failures of NAFTA, Duckworth is a
Perhaps
the most devastating blow dealt by NAFTA to the Mexican economy
was the near destruction of Mexicos agricultural sector, in which 2
million farm workers lost their jobs and 8 million small-scale farmers
were forced to sell their land at disastrously low prices, or desert it,
due to sharply declining food prices.(13) Importantly, the U.S. government subsidizes many
poverty rate in Mexico at 51.3 percent.(12) Source: Omar Torres/Agence France-Press- Getty Images
domestically produced agricultural products, allowing the products to be sold to Mexico at prices 30 percent below the
supplier of Mexico. In one case, U.S. corn exports, by maintaining subsidized prices, have all but rendered Mexican corn
cultivation obsolete and non-competitive. Corn, or maize, had been one of the main crops and an integral part of the
identity of the Mexican people since pre-Columbian days, but due to subsidized U.S. agricultural products, this tradition
has all but come to an end. Thus, NAFTA has not only negatively impacted Mexicos economy, but also altered its national
and constructed factories along the U.S.-Mexico border, creating the maquiladora system. While these factories, or
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maquilas, created 1.3 million jobs in the export-manufacturing sector, they still were not able to counterbalance jobs lost
in the agricultural sector, and it was not long before foreign competition threatened these newly created jobs.(15) Since
manufacturing sector now earn about a fourth of their pre-NAFTA wages.(17) Additionally, the prices of most goods in
Mexico have significantly increased. The cost of tortillas, which represent 75 percent of the daily caloric intake for
Mexicos poor, increased by 571 percent in the first six years of NAFTA, rendering meager wages even more insufficient
than before NAFTAs implementation(18) and making it increasingly difficult for families to meet basic needs. Wage
disparities between Americans and Mexicans have also widened. In 1994, Mexicans earned 23 percent of what Americans
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In
the United States, NAFTA: * Put downward pressure on wages and living
standards; * Created deep and probably chronic trade deficits with its neighbors; *
Displaced more than 400,000 jobs; * Weakened workers rights and reduced
employee bargaining power; * Exacerbated environmental and public-health
damage along the U.S.-Mexico border; * Compromised food safety standards; and
* Increased drug trafficking due to insufficient border inspections and heavier truck traffic from
Mexico. In Mexico, NAFTA: * Precipitated the 1994 peso collapse , which led to
an economic depression; * Eliminated more than 2 million jobs; * Reduced real
hourly wages by 27% from 1994 levels; * Caused the failure of more than 28,000
small businesses; and * Weakened labor standards and increased violations of worker
rights. Canada, too, has suffered the continued effects of a recession
that began in 1989 with the ratification of the original U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The effective
North America, and the continents environment. It finds that NAFTA has fallen far short in each of these areas.
merger with the U.S. economy has increased unemployment and forced Canada to begin to dismantle its longstanding
social safety net, resulting in falling standards of living for the average Canadian.
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billion. Our trade with Mexico showed a $1.6 billion surplus in 1993 but by 2010, our deficit had reached $61.6 billion. Eccentric billionaire
and 1992 presidential candidate H. Ross Perot was roundly mocked for predicting a "giant sucking sound" of jobs going to Mexico if NAFTA
passed. But he has been vindicated. The Department of Labor has estimated that NAFTA cost America 525,000 jobs between 1994 and 2002.
increased trade surplus with Mexico, but the reverse. As manufacturing jobs disappeared, workers were down-scaled to lower-paying, lesssecure services jobs. Within manufacturing, the threat of employers to move production to Mexico proved a powerful weapon for undercutting
hamstrung by a work force with a poor level of education, and a sizable chunk of the gross domestic product in devoted to exports rather than
production for home consumption. According to official figures that year, fewer than 18 million Mexicans made more than 5,000 pesos a
month. And even that was only about $625: roughly half the U.S. poverty line for a family of four. This has not improved much since, so, as
But if NAFTA wasn't a plausible economic bonanza for the U.S. and America's establishment knew it, then what was going on? Krugman again
supplies an answer, writing in Foreign Affairs that, "For the United States, NAFTA is essentially a foreign policy rather than an economic issue."
The real agenda was to keep people like President Carlos Salinas, friendly with powerful interests in the U.S., in power in Mexico City. Bottom
promote NAFTA as a jobs-creation program. Based on little more than guesswork, a few economists argued that NAFTA would boost our trade
surplus with Mexico, and thus produce a net gain in jobs. With utterly spurious precision, the administration settled on a figure of 200,000 jobs
created--and this became the core of the NAFTA sales pitch. NAFTA was sold in Mexico as Mexico's ticket to the big time. Mexicans were told
they were choosing between gradually converging with America's advanced economy and regressing to the status of a backwater like
neighboring Guatemala. What actually happened? In reality, the income gap between the United States and Mexico grew (by over 10
percent) in the first decade of the agreement. This doesn't mean America boomed; we didn't. But Mexico slumped terribly. In NAFTA's first
decade, the Mexican economy averaged 1.8 percent real growth per capita. By contrast, under the protectionist economic policies of 1948-73,
Mexico had averaged 3.2 percent growth. Because Mexico's labor force grows by a million people a year, job creation must get ahead of this
curve in order to raise wages; this is simply not happening. Mexican workers can often be hired for less than the taxes on American workers;
the average maquiladora wage is $1.82/hr. The maquiladora sector is deliberately isolated from the rest of the Mexican economy and
contributes little to it. Workers' rights, wages, and benefits are deliberately suppressed. Environmental laws are frequently just ignored.
wiped out by cheap American food exports, massively subsidized by our various farm programs. Promoters of NAFTA have tried to cover up
its problems by using inappropriate yardsticks of success. For example, they have claimed that the expansion of total trade among the three
nations vindicates the pact. But this expansion has been due to a growing American deficit. Because a growing deficit means, by definition,
that our imports have been growing faster than our exports, there is no way that economic growth per se will ever solve the problem.
Congress was right to reject NAFTA initially, which never enjoyed sincere majority support in either the House or the Senate and was bought
with sheer patronage by Bill Clinton. To be fair, NAFTA is not the only thing that has been wrong with the Mexican economy in recent decades.
1999, Mexican manufacturing wages fell 21 percent. It gets worse. Despite the fact that, compared to the U.S., Mexico is a cheap-labor
commentator William Greider, "The Mexican maquiladora cities thought they were going to become the next South Korea, but instead they
Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic were lumped together in the Central America Free Trade Agreement
Colombia, South Korea, Oman and Panama were pending ratification, and the U.S. was in stalled negotiations with Malaysia, Thailand and the
United Arab Emirates. Next on the list are reportedly Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In December 2009, the Obama
administration announced its intention to eventually join the existing Trans-Pacific Partnership and elevate it into a full-blown free trade area
comprising the U.S. plus Singapore, Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, Australia, Peru, and Vietnam. In December 2010, the administration reached a
slightly-improved deal with South Korea and announced it would push for Congressional ratification.
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conceptualizations of regional economic integration (REI) are based upon Europe as the model and the measure of the
when Mexicos government accelerated trade liberalization and the US and Canada were negotiating their bilateral Free
Trade Agreement, corporate strategies and investment decisions in all three countries were already shifting towards a
regional, rather than simply national, perspective.1 Particularly influential was the end of the branch plant model based
upon protectionist barriers to investment in Canada and Mexico, a model which also saddled U.S. companies with excess
capacity at a time of tougher international competition and falling profit margins. Canadian 1 In the early 1990s, several
key surveys of managers of US firms with long-established operations in Canada and Mexico indicated that the US-Canada
FTA and NAFTA had simply intensified trends already underway towards continental-wide corporate strategies and
organizations. See Stephen Krajewski, Multinational Firms Across the Canada-U.S. Border: An Investigation of Intrafirm
Trade and Other Activities, (Ottawa: Conference Board of Canada, 1992); Jerry Haar and Stephen Blank, Making NAFTA
Work: U.S. Firms and the New North American Business Environment (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998).
Introduction 1 Staying Alive: North American Competitiveness firms, always concerned about market access and
access to larger pools of capital, found greater incentives to look south, while the end of corporate welfare with the
dismantling of institutionalized protectionism in Mexico also chastened its previously risk-averse private sector and gave
impetus to export orientation and the search for joint ventures.2 Even before NAFTA, and to an increasing extent after,
intra-firm trade exploded, and just-in-time cross-border production, supply and distribution strategies further enhanced
unleashed from top-down government projects and planning, North American integration has deepened in an uneven,
market-driven, de facto manner while sidestepping the paralyzing political battles over sovereignty that an attempt to
adopt a European system would certainly have set off. While advocates of North American integration may have
celebrated such an under the radar approach in the past, the challenge of expanding trade and competition with Asia
raises the question regarding whether North America, Inc. can continue down this market-based, decentralized adaptive
path into the future. While business was pretty much able to retool itself in the 1980s, todays new challenges reveal what
the limits to bottom-up growth, specifically having to do with issues such as transportation, border infrastructure, and
regulation. It is both the scale of Chinas export push (helped along with the expiration of the multifibre agreement) and
the technological leaps made in transoceanic shipping that have raised concerns regarding the sorry state of North
stay alive and remain competitive in todays global markets by which we mean not a Fortress North America
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exclusionary strategy, but rather a strategy that seeks to attract both investment and trade from dynamic Asian
economies by maximizing the competitive advantage of North America as a site of production, consumer markets, and
innovation the moment of truth has arrived regarding the unsexy but essential issue of the health and maintenance of
the plumbing of the North American economic system.
Technology and Public Policy and the James A. Baker III Institute For Public
Policy at Rice University. Dr. Tony Payan is the Assistant Professor of Political
Science at the University of Texas at El Paso. [Developing the U.S.-Mexico
Border Region for a Prosperous and Secure Relationship. Managing the U.S.Mexico Border: Human Security and Technology. April 1, 2009.
http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/LAI-pub-BorderSecBronkPayan040109.pdf)
Infrastructure The impact of the growth of cross-border economic
integration on border infrastructure has been colossal, as has been
the increased inspection protocols by U.S. border officials , as dictated by
the Department of Homeland Security after September 11 . Economic integration has
strained the existing infrastructure because economic activity has
grown at a faster pace than investment in infrastructure. In addition,
border security measures implemented after September 11 have
been found to impede the transborder flow of goods and people . A
study by El Colegio de la Frontera Norte shows that the efficiency of cross-border infrastructure has
routes also face serious obstacles: 50 percent have excessive traffic, 17 percent have limited road access,
and l2 percent have long queues to pass through the port. In regard to pedestrian crossings, there are too
few inspection booths at 74 percent of' all U.S.-Mexico border crossings and too few U.S. Customs and
86 percent of the
border-related national transportation system needs to be improved
so that export goods can reach their destination in a timely manner.
16 the current infrastructure is simply insufficient to handle the
volume of traffic, and the result is long queues, excessive traffic, and increased vehicular
Border Protection (CBP) inspectors at 80 percent of all ports of' entry. Finally,
pollution.
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recipient of funding from the bank, after Tijuana. Two years ago, a project funded by NADBANK and run by
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measures for these activities. Agency Affected: Department of State Status: Closed - Not Implemented Comments: In
its agency comments, State Department reported that the P4P principals from the Departments of State, Commerce and
Treasury, together with their Mexican counterparts, agreed on February 17, 2005, to create seven permanent working
groups on critical development issues, including a working group on rural development. State Department also reported
that each of the working groups was asked to identify private sector co-leads and to develop an action plan for 2005
activities. However, State Department was not able to provide copies of the P4P action plan for rural development to
demonstrate that indeed such a collaborative plan had been developed and implemented. Recommendation:
To
promote rural development in Mexico and enhance Mexican small farmers' ability
to benefit from trade opportunities under NAFTA, which would also help shape
a more positive perception of the agreement, the Secretary of State, as the lead agency
for the P4P initiative, should work with USDA and other relevant agencies to expand collaborative efforts with the Mexican
facilitating rural
credit was one area in which the United States, through P4P, was in a position to
could be used to advance rural development in support of free trade. We concluded that
collaborate with Mexico. In a letter after the report was issued, the Department of State said that the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) had started a new five-year project called Access to Rural Finance for the
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trilateral
. This has forced many of the SPPs objectives to be funneled through various bilateral initiatives.
is also
the military.
ng
Canada is being encouraged to further engage and commit itself alongside the U.S. in helping Mexico. Some have described the Canada-Mexico partnership as a failed
opportunity with Ottawa more preoccupied with U.S. concerns. Mexican President Felipe Calderons recent trip to Canada was seen as a chance to strengthen bilateral bonds and push for more trade and investment
between the two NAFTA partners. In a press statement, Calderon highlighted, The reason for this visit is to consolidate and expand our bilateral relationship at all levels. While addressing a joint session of
. Calderon characterized Mexico as a, valuable neighbor and a strategic partner for the future of North
Americas prosperity. His message was clear as he championed the need for deeper economic integration and warned against protectionism. Also on the agenda was North American
as
Canada
At the 2009 North American Leaders Summit, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that
Canada was working with the U.S. and Mexico in the fight against drug trafficking and transnational organized crime. He launched the Anti-Crime Capacity Building Program which will invest $15 million per year
and, expand Canadian law enforcement and criminal justice capacity building assistance to targeted states in the Americas. Assistance will be provided for projects that reflect Canadas policy priorities and
obligations within the key international anti-crime conventions. This includes illicit drugs, corruption, human trafficking, money laundering, security system reform and crime prevention. Under the program, Canada
has already provided RCMP personnel and funding to help train Mexican Federal police. During Calderons recent visit, Canada and Mexico also announced several (other) anti-crime capacity building projects that
the Government of Canada will be undertaking to support Mexicos robust and ongoing efforts to combat corruption and reform its legal system. This includes training for Mexican judges and lawyers and a
harmonization of Mexicos criminal law. An updated air transport agreement, as well as a number of other bilateral initiatives were also reached during Calderons state visit to Canada. In addition, there was a
Memorandum of Understanding on Youth Mobility which, will simplify and facilitate the administrative procedures for qualified Canadian and Mexican youth, aged 18 to 29, to travel and work in each others country
for up to one year. This could be a precursor to a larger labour mobility agreement. Canada and Mexico signed a Joint Action Plan aimed at, fostering competitive and sustainable economies, protecting our
citizens, enhancing people-to-people Contacts and projecting our partnership globally and regionally. Harper proclaimed, We are setting the stage for the next decade of growth and cooperation between our two
countries, He went on to say, The initiatives signed today demonstrate that we are deepening our relations in a wide number of areas that will benefit both our peoples. Before his trip to Canada, Calderon was
in Washington to meet with President Barack Obama where border security and Mexicos drug war were high on the agenda. He was very critical of Arizonas Senate Bill 1070 which allows police to question and
detain suspects who cant prove citizenship. The Obama administration has threatened a legal challenge to the new law. The bill is the result of growing frustration over the lack of immigration enforcement. Other
states are looking to pass similar legislation in efforts to curb illegal immigration. Perhaps feeling the heat, Obama recently announced plans to send 1,200 troops to U.S.-Mexico border to counter cross-border drug
and weapons trafficking. The move was seen by some as more of a symbolic gesture and a political ploy to try and win over Republican support for immigration reform. It was later reported that the National Guard
soldiers would not be used to stop illegal immigration. Former U.S. Congressman Tom Tancredo acknowledged, The desire is not to fix the problem. The desire is to have amnesty. All of this is in anticipation of
Many aspects
are closely tied to a common
perimeter approach to border management and security
amnesty.
harmonization of immigration and customs standards. While addressing a joint meeting of Congress, Calderon said, Mexico is a country in transformation. This is making us an even more strategic partner for the
future prosperity of the American people. The world is more global and more interconnected every day. It is also divided into large economic regions. Those regions that maximize their comparative advantages will
be the ones that succeed. And we both need to compete with Asia and with Europe. Mexico and the United States are stronger together than they are apart. He also added, So I invite you to work with Mexico and
consolidate North America as the most competitive region in the world. A joint statement by the leaders declared that, The bilateral dialogue between Presidents Obama and Calderon underscores their
commitment to strengthening the strategic partnership between both countries, and they will continue working closely together in bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral fora over the coming months, as befitting two
partners and nations uniquely important for the well-being, prosperity and security of one another. Calderon used his visits to the U.S. and Canada to boost NAFTA relations. He was not shy about his wish for
deeper North American integration and although the defunct SPP was not mentioned by name, many of its goals were front and center. In a recent article Manuel Prez-Rocha of the Institute for Policy Studies
stated, While Obama has written off the infamous, Bush-led Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) of North America, its main elements persist in todays bilateral relations. Some of the terminology has changed:
the smart border, for example, is now the 21st-century border. However, U.S. priorities continue to be deregulating trade, enforcing intellectual property rights, and guaranteeing energy security in North
America to meet the energy needs of the United States. Manuel went on to say, The United States has channeled more than $1.3 billion into security operations in Mexico. Although violence in Mexico continues
to soar, claiming more than 23,000 lives since Calderon took office, the Obama administration continues to back Calderons failed military strategy to curb drug trafficking. Homeland Security Secretary Janet
Napolitanorecently admitted that the U.S. military has been working inside Mexico alongside Mexican armed forces in the battle against drug cartels. Under Obama, the Merida Initiative which has its roots in the SPP
front .
common security perimeter would be a more effective way of
safeguarding North America
trade, investment and labour
This is escalating the militarization of the borders, integration in areas of law enforcement and the military, as well as advancing the development of a North American security perimeter. Some
believe that a
would force Canada and Mexico to take on more U.S. security priorities and further place them at the mercy of American foreign policy. A continental security perimeter would be another incremental step in the
creation of a North American Union.
. This
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the United States every year is estimated at roughly 500,000. The figure constitutes a sizable increase compared to the 170,000 that entered
NAFTA was
expected to significantly reduce migratory flows between Mexico and the United States.
Although this goal was not explicitly stated in the text of the agreement, government rhetoric in Mexico
and the United States clearly articulated this objective as a welcome
side effect of trade and financial liberalization. U.S. President Bill Clinton stated in several
the country every year on average during the 1980s. Contrary to the experience of the last 15 years,
press conferences on NAFTA that the trade agreement was a necessary condition to reverse the historical trend of illegal immigration from
Mexico. Similarly, Mexicos President Carlos Salinas de Gortari referred to NAFTA as a migration-reducing agreement. Thjs view relied on
classical international trade theory, which predicted that increased trade flows between Mexico and its wealthier partners, the United States
States or Canada. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in Mexicos property rights regime that puts an end to the collective ownership of land
known as ejidos were expected to contribute to a short-term increase in the numbr of migrants to the United States.
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**IMPACT STUFF**
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Manufacturing IL
NAFTA kills manufacturing sector
Public Citizen 13 (Public Citizen, nonprofit advocacy group with offices in
Washington and Austin, NAFTAs Broken Promises 1994-2013: Outcomes of
the North American Free Trade Agreement, 2013,
http://www.citizen.org/documents/NAFTAs-Broken-Promises.pdf)
Devastation of American manufacturing erodes the tax base that
supports U.S. schools, hospitals and essential infrastructure. Since
NAFTAs implementation, over 60,000 manufacturing facilities have
closed.41 The loss of these firms and erosion of manufacturing employment means there are fewer
firms and well-paid workers to contribute to local tax bases. Research shows that a robust manufacturing
<insert impact>
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manufacturing uniqueness
Manufacturing high now.
Reuters 11/1 (11/1/13, Manufacturing sector expands more than
expected in October, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101162810, Keerthi, Acc
11/10/13)
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 2
years last month, an industry report showed Friday, but the pace of hiring slowed
from September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national
factory activity rose to 56.4 in October its best showing since April
2011 from 56.2 the prior month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Growth
edged up despite the partial government shutdown during the first 16 days of the month. October
was the fifth-consecutive month of quicker growth in the goodsproducing sector since it contracted in May. The forward-looking new orders index edged up to
60.6 from 60.5, but the employment index slipped to 53.2 after hitting a 15-month high of 55.4 in
September. Production eased to 60.8 from 62.6.
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manufacturing ag impact
Manufacturing industry is key to agricultural technology advances and precision
farming
Lind and Freeman 12 (Michael Lind, policy director of New Americas
The
population survived by hunting a rapidly vanishing population of
edible animals. The after-effects continued for a decade and human history was changed irreversibly. But the
planet recovered. Such examples of benign nature's wisdom , in full flood as it
were, dwarf and make miniscule the tiny modifications we make upon our
summer turned to winter and crops here and elsewhere in the Northern hemisphere failed completely.
environment. There are apparently 100 such volcanoes round the world that could at any time unleash forces as great.
And even smaller volcanic explosions change our climate and can easily
threaten the security of our food supply. Our hold on this planet is
tenuous. In the present day an equivalent 535 A.D. explosion would
destroy much of our civilisation. Only those with agricultural
technology sufficiently advanced would have a chance at survival .
Colliding asteroids are another problem that requires us to be forward-looking accepting that technological advance may
be the only buffer between us and annihilation.
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The
United States can take a leading position in a productivity
revolution. And our success at increasing food production may play a
decisive humanitarian role in the survival of billions of people and
the health of our planet.
agricultural science. Fundamental research will generate the innovations that will be necessary to feed the world.
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coordinated national programs and by focusing investments on "areas of existing national economic strength." The U.S. lead in patents and publications, he added,
"appears to be slipping." According to Nordan, whose company's figures were cited repeatedly by PCAST it its report, even the U.S.'s current R&D spending lead is open
to question. On the basis of purchasing-power parity, 2004 government spending on nano R&D in the U.S., at $5.42 per capita, came in below South Korea's $5.62, Japan's
$6.30, and Taiwan's $9.40. "The $130 million in estimated government spending on nanotech last year in China equaled $611 million at purchasing-power parity, or 38
percent of U.S. expenditure," Nordan noted. That nations like China are free to direct "initial capital investments toward the instrumentation needed for nanotechnology
research, without having to maintain technology infrastructures and skill sets that were cutting-edge 20 years ago" could add to the comparative bang they're getting for
their bucks. A figure cited in Murdock's testimony seems to corroborate this assumption. In the period January to August 2004, China led the world in research papers on
nanotechnology, presenting 14 percent more than the U.S. And while the U.S., according to the NanoBusiness Alliance's database, accounted for 613 of 1,175 companies
worldwide that are "involved with nanotechnology," Murdock said that "if one is to believe the announcements made at the ChinaNano2005 trade expo," China now has
pointed to Japan's Frontier Carbon, whose 40-ton-per-year capacity for the manufacture of fullerenes, based on a process licensed from an MIT spinoff company, surpasses
argued, by offering "low labor costs or tax advantages for capital investment in manufacturing facilities" in an attempt to "go toe-to-toe against...countries that have more
runway to go down in terms of economic development based on nanotechnology." Nor, he said, can it prevent the transfer overseas of research, whether "through a patent
process [or] to a country that perhaps does not have the respect for intellectual property rights that Western European and U.S. nations hold." Instead, the U.S. should
seek "to have an unremitting, relentless flow of novel ideas that take time and keep us continually two, three, five years ahead of what other countries can attain," Nordan
maintained. "The achievement that we can drive toward is to always be ahead and always be first to market with those novel ideas, and through that I think we'll attain
keeping manufacturing in
the U.S. is critical to the nation's economic health. "I believe that we
need to endeavor to be more than just IP companies," he stated, in view of a projection by
economic rewards." Murdock, while concurring on the importance of enforcing IP laws, countered that
Nordan's firm that "new, emerging nanotechnology applications will...becom[e] incorporated into 15 percent of global manufacturing output totaling $2.6 trillion in 2014."
"If you look at the total value associated with any product, most of the value tends to accrue to those that are closest to the customer -- that, in fact, make it. And while IP
may have higher margins, ultimately there is a big value pool out there, and we need to ensure that we're taking steps to capture the value. "Furthermore, IP is not the
only source of intellectual capital," Murdock added. "There is know-how. And that is the reason for the importance of manufacturing. Ultimately, when we move from the
knowledge or the proof of principle into making the stuff, we develop process knowledge. That process knowledge helps us to refine and improve both the quality of the
product and the throughput, and it increases the marginal productivity of the labor. That is what enables us to pay high wages and keep jobs here. "So while we need to
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Similarly, two countries can develop molecular nano assemblers: the United
States and China. The latter launched in 1986 Project 863, a Manhattan
Project for the development of post-nuclear superweapons in seven fields,
and, at the close of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st, molecular
nano technology became the eighth field.
The United States has not launched a Manhattan Project for the
development of any post-nuclear superweapons, and certainly not, of
molecular nanoweapons. In 1969 President Nixon announced the U.S. termination of development of
post-nuclear weapons, and it has been terminated, according to my research, not my benevolence. Just as Lloyd George
in England up to 1939 dreamed aloud about having a statesman as great as Hitler at the head of the British government,
woke up. Imagine the dictatorship of China suddenly invading Mexico! But the Chinese strategists regard such a war as
purely Western and old-fashioned (see Unrestricted Warfare). In a modern war (which, ironically, the United States
initiated by using nuclear weapons against Japan in 1945), a geostrategist confronts the enemy with annihilation or
we
believe that the only responsible molecular nanotechnology is for the
U.S. government to launch a nanotech Manhattan Project on the basis of the Foresight Institute, with Eric
unconditional surrender. Let us now look at the article Responsible Nanotechnology. At the CSWD, Inc.,
Drexler, the founder of nanotechnology, at the head of the Project. Incidentally, the Advisory Board of the Center for
Responsible Nanotechnology consists of distinguished, gifted individuals who might become the core of the nanotech
Manhattan Project. Great was my shock when I had read the article posted by or on behalf of CRN. Here are its eight
scenarios of the future of mankind (which the article presents out of numerical sequence): Scenario 6.
The leading
world powers take a close look at the first three scenarios we've
described [the article describes 4 after 6 and 5], decide to avoid them at all costs,
and agree to work together to avoid geopolitical meltdown. We at CRN
believe that sovereign nations ultimately may cooperate in this way, since
the alternatives appear to suck! Again, China is no problem even if China gets molecular
but molecular manufacturing technology develops slowly, which is even better. Scenario 4.
manufacturing capability first. Surely China will not annihilate the West even in this case, but will work together. What
United States is much more dangerous for the world than that in China, the largest dictatorship in world history. Inside the
U.S. government certain elements may intend to oppress the rest of the world. Not inside the government of China,
which presumably consists of American liberal Democrats and peaceniks only. Scenario 3. Two or more competent
nations develop molecular manufacturing capability at about the same time. Fearing the potential military advantage this
could provide for their adversary, they each begin rapid and massive development of hideously powerful new weaponry.
The resulting arms race is almost certain to be highly unstable, for several reasons. This scenario can be considered an
existential risk for the human race. Can you imagine the dictators of China, hearing of existential risk for the human
race? They will develop a severe depression, and the American doctors talking depression on TV will have to treat
them. Scenario 2 A major Asian nation achieves robust molecular nanotechnology manufacturing ahead of anyone else,
and as a result the U.S. becomes something of a backwater. As I was reading this, I could imagine only China in this role.
I guessed right! But never mind, for China (if it's them) could turn increasingly open/democratic as they continue to
develop economically and scientifically... isn't it? Of course! Remember how increasingly open/democratic Germany
turned as it developed economically and scientifically after 1933? If one knows nothing about a foreign country, he or she
can well daydream about its being open/democratic. Remember how President Roosevelt's spouse and his ambassador in
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develop national wealth and power, as Erik Reinert shows in his book How Rich Countries Got Richand Why Poor
Countries Stay Poor. From the rise of England in the 19th century, to the rise of the US, Germany, Japan and the USSR in
the 20th, to the newly industrializing countries like Korea, Taiwan, and now China, manufacturing has been the key to
research shows that about 80% of the worlds production of factory machinery has been controlled by what we would
consider the Great Powers. Until the 1950s, the US had produced about 50%; we now produce less than Chinas 16%.
itself is dependent on other forms of production machinery, such as the machine tools that grind the lenses they use or
the alloys of metal the metal-making industries output. These technologies reproduce themselves, as when an SME makes
the semiconductors that then go to make more SMEs, or when a machine tool makes the metal components that not only
go into other pieces of machinery, such as cars, but are used to produce yet more machine tools. The technological and
machine tools and SMEs affect each other as well, leading to the
explosive economic growth of the last two hundred years. Sign up for
weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, and event alerts. 4. Global trade is based on
productive potential of
goods, not services A country cant trade services for most of its goods. According to the
WTO, 80% of world trade among regions is merchandise trade that is,
only 20% of world trade is in services. This closely matches the trade percentages that even the US, allegedly becoming
post-industrial, achieves. If in the extreme case an economy was composed only of services, then it would be very poor,
because it couldnt trade for goods; its currency would be worth very little. The dollar is also vulnerable in the long-term.
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finance is dependent on manufacturing. The cycle of rise and decline usually runs like this: some clever society figures out
how to take advantage of the current technologies of production, thus generating huge surpluses, which either the
financial forces, the very wealthy, or the military then appropriate for their own wealth and power; they kill the goose that
is laying the golden eggs. To sum up: the health of the economy is critically dependent on the health of the manufacturing
sector was 20.2% of its economy, in Germany it was 23.2%, and in the US manufacturing accounted for 13.4%, according
to the the OECD. Using 2005 figures, if the US had the same percentage as Japan, we would have 7 million more highquality, long-term, well paying jobs. If we were equal with Germany, we would have 10 million more. And according to the
Economic Policy Institute, each manufacturing job supports almost three other jobs in the economy. That makes sense,
considering the other five reasons that manufacturing is central to the economy. Thus, there are six solid reasons that we
need to rebuild the manufacturing sector of the United States. Its time for the United States to wake up before its too
late and rebuild the foundation of a strong, prosperous, middle class economy.
certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may
seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major,
medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global
economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's
(1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that
interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view
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in
the likelihood of
terrorism
crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves
specifically consider
economic crises. As
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
the number of
armed conflicts around the world has been in decline for the past
half-century. In just the past 15 years, ongoing conflicts have
dropped from 33 to 18, with all of them now civil conflicts within
countries. As 2005 draws to an end, no two nations in the world are at war with each other. The
death toll from war has also been falling. According to the AP story, " The number killed in
battle has fallen to its lowest point in the post-World War II period,
dipping below 20,000 a year by one measure. Peacemaking missions, meanwhile,
studies say." According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
are growing in number." Those estimates are down sharply from annual tolls ranging from 40,000 to
100,000 in the 1990s, and from a peak of 700,000 in 1951 during the Korean War. Many causes lie behind
the good news -- the end of the Cold War and the spread of democracy, among them -- but
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Keerthi Gondi
Far from stoking a "World on Fire," as one misguided American author has argued, growing commercial ties
First,
trade and globalization have reinforced the trend toward democracy,
and democracies don't pick fights with each other. Freedom to trade nurtures
between nations have had a dampening effect on armed conflict and war, for three main reasons.
democracy by expanding the middle class in globalizing countries and equipping people with tools of
products, they can acquire them peacefully by trading away what they can produce best at home.
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regional jet market is dominated by two non-U.S. headquartered manufacturers, Brazils Embraer and Canadas Bombardier, both of which
utilize a high level of U.S.-produced content in their products. The general aviation market includes companies such as Cessna and
Gulfstream. Aerospace
the U.S. manufacturing base. It
comprised 2.8% of the nations manufacturing workforce in 2008 and employed over 500,000 Americans in high- skilled and high-wage jobs.
the nations aerospace industry jobs are located in six states: Washington state,
Several smaller aerospace manufacturing
clusters are found in states such as Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Missouri, and Alabama. Other aerospace
centers are beginning to emerge in southern states, such as South Carolina, where
Boeing is now building a second production line to produce the 787 Dreamliner. Aerospace manufacturing
contributes significantly to the U.S. economy, with total sales by aerospace
manufacturers (including defense and space) comprising 1.4% of the U.S. gross domestic product in 2008.
More than half (61%) of
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Air Force is key to deterrence - decline causes global nuclear war and conflict
Thompson, March 2013--Loren B., PhD, Intelligence, Surveillance, and
while programs to recapitalize tactical air fleets in both services were repeatedly restructured. In addition, efforts to develop next- generation
intelligence, navigation, communication, missile-warning and weather satellites have fallen far behind schedule. As a result, the joint inventory
of fixed-wing aircraft and orbital systems enabling air dominance has aged considerably. Unmanned aircraft are an exception to this trend, but
technologies in which only a few countries could play, such as long-range ballistic missiles, to technologies in which many players could
dominance. The inquiry focused on the four core components of air dominance: intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance; air superiority;
long- range strike; and mobility. In each area, the inquiry sought to understand the current force structure and modernization programs being
funded, and then identify gaps in future capabilities that need to be addressed. It also examined alternative approaches to satisfying
operational requirements, and explored how those alternatives might be implemented in varying fiscal circumstances. A series of working
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Keerthi Gondi
Drug Trafficking IL
NAFTA helps facilitate drug trafficking and crime
Peele 12
the majority of maquiladoras (factories operating in a free trade zone) were located along the U.S.-
to Eduardo Valle, who resigned as personal advisor to the Mexican attorney general in 1994, the most
successful drug capos had become driving forces, pillars even, of our economic growth (p. 129). In
response to the doubling of U.S. imports from Mexico between 1993, the year before NAFTA took effect,
and 1997, Phil Jordan, the former Director of the DEAs El Paso Intelligence Center remarked that
NAFTA served as a godsend to drug trafficking , the best thing that happened to
product distribution since Nike signed up Michael Jordan (p. 3). Based on this growth stimulus of the
free trade agreement, it shouldnt come as a surprise that the leader of the Sinaloa Federation, Joaqun
El Chapo Guzman currently appears for the fourth consecutive year on Forbes Magazines list of top
billionaires. Not only was he recently named The worlds most powerful drug trafficker by the U.S.
Department of the Treasury, he has been named repeatedly as one of Forbes Magazines Worlds Most
Powerful People throughout the years. His current location on the list places him just a few spots down
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say, yeah. They have the routes, they can very easily smuggle in other things. If I was a bad guy in another country, I
would go into Central America because the U.S. is not paying the proper attention.
Violence reached
new levels last week when the mayor of Juarez, a Mexican city with 1.6 million people that serves as a
major transit point for drug smugglers, moved his family to El Paso, Texas, after receiving threats against his and their
lives. The move corresponded with the resignation of the citys police chief after a drug cartel promised to kill a police
officer every 48 hours if he did not step down. The citys police director of operations, a police officer and a prison guard
were killed by the cartels in days prior. That was a mistake in my judgment, Franks said of the chiefs resignation. The
federal government should have come in and said listen, were going to put a Marine division there to help you out if
There is real danger that Islamic extremist groups such as alQaida and Hezbollah could form alliances with wealthy and powerful
Latin American drug lords to launch new terrorist attacks, U.S. officials said
MIAMI
Wednesday.
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logistical support. But Charles Allen, chief of intelligence analysis at the Homeland Security
Department, said they could use well-established smuggling routes and
drug profits to bring people or even weapons of mass destruction to
the U.S.
"The presence of these people in the region leaves open the
possibility that they will attempt to attack the U nited S tates," said
Allen, a veteran CIA analyst. "The threats in this hemisphere are real.
We cannot ignore them."
Added U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration operations chief Michael Braun: "It is not in our interest to let
that potpourri of scum to come together."
possibilities, however
remote, do suggest themselves. For example, how might the United States react if it
was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear
terrorism had come from Russian stocks,40 and if for some reason Moscow denied any responsibility for
nuclear laxity? The correct attribution of that nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of
science fiction given the observation by Michael May et al. that while the debris resulting from a
nuclear explosion would be spread over a wide area in tiny fragments, its
radioactivity makes it detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a wealth of
information can be obtained from its analysis : the efficiency of the explosion, the materials used and,
most important some indication of where the nuclear material came from.41 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear
terrorism came as a complete surprise, and American officials refused to
believe that a terrorist group was fully responsible (or responsible at all) suspicion
would shift immediately to state possessors. Ruling out Western ally
countries like the United Kingdom and France, and probably Israel and India as well, authorities in Washington
would be left with a very short list consisting of North Korea, perhaps Iran if
its program continues, and possibly Pakistan. But at what stage would Russia
and China be definitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear Cluedo?
In particular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a backdrop of
existing tension in Washingtons relations with Russia and/or China , and at a time when
threats had already been traded between these major powers, would officials and political leaders not be
tempted to assume the worst? Of course, the chances of this occurring would only seem to increase if the United
supporting that sort of terrorist behavior that could just as easily threaten them as well. Some
States was already involved in some sort of limited armed conflict with Russia and/or China, or if they were confronting each other from a
distance in a proxy war, as unlikely as these developments may seem at the present time. The reverse might well apply too: should a nuclear
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terrorist attack occur in Russia or China during a period of heightened tension or even limited conflict with the United States, could Moscow
and Beijing resist the pressures that might rise domestically to consider the United States as a possible perpetrator or encourager of the
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Keerthi Gondi
Mexico Economy IL
Hurts Mexican economy
Aziz 7 (Nikhil Aziz, Nikhil Aziz has been Executive Director of Grassroots
International since 2005. Before joining Grassroots, Nikhil was Associate
Director at Political Research Associates, where he led a team that studied
the conservative movement and the political right in the United States,
NAFTA is Killing Tradition of Corn in Mexico, 9 November 2007,
http://www.grassrootsonline.org/news/articles/nafta-killing-tradition-cornmexico)
The urgent nature of this campaign is clear as we near January 1, 2008, when the last remaining
protections that Mexican peasants and indigenous peoples have preventing
the flooding of their country with subsidized U.S. corn and beans, the two
staples of the Mexican diet, will be erased . And so, on November 18, 2007 they will
undertake a national mobilization to call attention to this looming disaster. When the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed by the United States, Canada and
Mexico in 1994 over the widespread opposition of Mexicos rural poor and
indigenous peoples, some time-limited tariff protections were put in place to
prevent U.S. exports of these two foods from deluging Mexico and causing
economic upheaval. The immediate and long term impact of such a deluge might well be much
larger than the recent floods caused by Hurricane Noel in Tabasco and Chiapas states. Since the
implementation of NAFTA, and even with these limited protections, millions of
Mexicans, particularly from rural communities, have been hard hit. More than
2 million rural people have been displaced from the countryside and forced to
emigrate to cities or to the North in search of a means for survivalan
endless supply of cheap labor for maquiladoras on the border or low wage
jobs in the United States. The stage for this massive social and economic upheaval was set even
before NAFTA when in 1982 the Mexican government began putting in place a neoliberal economic
program that aimed at the privatization and deregulation of agriculture and food systems, closely tying it
to similar moves in industry. In 1992, the Salinas government pushed through a constitutional amendment
privatizing the traditional Mexican ejido and indigenous communal landholdingsland rights that were won
after enormous peasant and indigenous struggles and sacrifices culminating in the 1910 Mexican
revolution.
Mexico is changing rapidly, and policies crafted to reflect yesterday's Mexico will not help
the U.S. make the most of the potential of today's and tomorrow's Mexico. Mexico's future is
bright, and tapping into this growth and economic prosperity is vital
that
to U.S. competitiveness.
But the U.S. needs immigration reform to build on its huge bilateral
trade with Mexico -- more than $1 billion in goods and services each day, or $45 million an hour. Mexico's
President Enrique Pea Nieto has achieved in less than five months in office what eluded previous
administrations for six years. In the second half of 2013, he hopes to add energy to the improvements in
education and telecommunications that are sailing through under the umbrella of the Pact for Mexico
political agreement.
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payment, whereas a creditor can then transfer this cost on to other agents. As such the system would
defaults is higher when the economic agents are connected, but defaults become a systemic failure
(Gallegati et al., 2008. Pp.5. 16). Kose, Prasad, and Terrones (2009) considered the same question and
found only mild support for risk-sharing and only among developed, industrial economies. They found no
evidence that developing, non-industrial countries are able to share risk. The authors break relatively new
ground in suggesting why this is the case for non-industrial states: One possibility is that these countries
rely more on less stable capital such as bank loans and other forms of debt that may not allow for efficient
risk sharing. Indeed, we break up stocks of external assets and liabilities into different categories FDI,
portfolio equity, portfolio debt, etc. we find that the underlying composition of capital flows influences the
ability of developing countries to share risk. In particular, external debt appears to hinder the ability of
emerging market economies to share their consumption risk. (Kose, Prasad, & Terrones, 2009. P. 259) One
reason why interdependent states may not be well-suited to share risk is due to the fact that
interdependence leads to economic specialization and reliance on external financing. Gande, John, and
Senbet (2008) and Corsetii et al. (1999) provide conceptual and analytical links between specialization,
moral hazard, and contagion. Thus, the answer to the first question set out at the beginning of this section,
whether economic integration and economic crises are linked, seems reasonably well-established.
Substantial recent scholarship indicates a positive association between economic interdependence and
economic crises. What then about the second question? Is there a positive correlation between economic
crises and armed conflict? The impacts at an individual level and on a state level are intuitive and well-
the
instability in the global economic system contributes to social disintegration
and political conflict. Social unrest, regime changes, and even civil war have
directly resulted from the vagaries of economic integration. Less intuitive is how
documented (See, e.g., Richards & Gelleny, 2006). Rodrik (1997a, 197b), among others, argues that
periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has
contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and
defence behavior of interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic
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economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science
scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national levels. This
implied connection between integration, crises, and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the
economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
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the next energy debate may not be about the oil the United States gets from the Arab nations in the
Washington- based Hudson Institute think tank who specializes in U. S.-Canadian relations. And 25
percent of all of our untapped resources are there. Thats a big deal. While Congress has been mired in
never-ending debates about drilling in Alaskas Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and, more recently, off the
traditional crude oil, much of it goes to refineries in the West and Midwest, then on to gas stations and to
Buffalo to its Philadelphia refinery, possibly as soon as 2012. The pipeline would use the same right of way
as the pipeline that brings gasoline to the Buffalo area from Philadelphia, said Thomas Golembeski, a
Sunoco spokesman. Enbridge, Canadas leading pipeline company, has proposed a 30-inch pipeline using
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the same route. The proposal is one of the companys three alternatives for bringing crude from the oil
sands into the Northeast, said Jennifer Varey, a company spokeswoman. Were always looking for ways to
expand our system, Varey said. And were seeing tremendous interest in getting Canadian crude into the
conservation or environmental policy . . . or even for household heating. We cannot, said John Dillon, coauthor of a report on the issue published by the University of Albertas Parkland Institute and the Canadian
Centre for Policy Alternatives. But Canada might want to change all that if American politicians insist on
renegotiating the trade deal. Perhaps not surprisingly, Obama who called NAFTA devastating and a
big mistake during his campaign against Clinton softened his criticism once he clinched the Democratic
nomination. Sometimes during campaigns, the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified, he told Fortune
magazine in June, saying he was simply interested in opening up a dialogue with Canada and Mexico
and figuring out how we can make this work for all people. Campaign aides to McCain, the presumed
Republican nominee, did not respond to a request for comment, but others suggested that, for Obama, a
more careful approach to NAFTA only made sense. The Canadians might look for other options if we
became difficult customers, said Sands, of the Hudson Institute. Yet while easing off his aggressive anti-
A strong
proponent of developing alternative energy sources, the likely
Democratic nominee appears concerned about a possible
overreliance on the Canadian oil sands. The oil from the sands
contains more carbon, which makes it a bigger contributor than
traditional sweet crude to global warming. Alberta, therefore, plans
to spend $2 billion to capture and store the carbon removed from
the oil. If it turns out that these technologies dont advance, and the only way to produce these
NAFTA rhetoric, Obama remains likely to be a difficult customer for the Canadian oil industry.
resources would be at a significant penalty to climate change, then we dont believe that those resources
are going to be part of the long-term . . . future, Jason Grumet, Obamas senior energy adviser, told
reporters in June. Environmental issues Obama is not alone in worrying about the potential
environmental cost of oil from the oil sands. The U. S. Conference of Mayors passed a resolution in June
encouraging mayors to refrain from buying higher-carbon fuels for municipal vehicles. And Liz BarrattBrown, a senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said: T here
is a huge
infrastructure investment being made in a fuel that, in our view, is
taking us in the wrong direction. Its making it more difficult for us
to fully address the global warming issue. Environmentalists say
Albertas dirty oil contains three times as much carbon as sweet
crude, and they note that its production essentially involves stripmining Albertas boreal forest and disrupting, if not destroying, all
the wildlife there. Oil industry officials and Alberta provincial leaders
counter by saying they are doing everything they can to reduce the
oil sands carbon footprint and protect the environment. Yes, its a
heavier oil, said Greg Stringham, vice president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, who,
nevertheless, disputes the notion that it has three times as much carbon than light sweet crude.
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Obama in Rolling Stone in which he said that Canada would exploit the oil in its vast
tar sands reserves regardless of what we do. If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it
will be game over for the climate . Canadas tar sands, deposits of sand
saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by
global oil use in our entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to
burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the
Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet
higher than it is now. That level of heat-trapping gases would assure
that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of
control. Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global
temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the
planets species would be driven to extinction. Civilization would be
at risk. That is the long-term outlook. But near-term, things will be bad enough. Over the next several decades,
the Western U nited S tates and the semi-arid region from North Dakota
to Texas will develop semi-permanent drought, with rain , when it does come,
occurring in extreme events with heavy flooding. Economic losses
would be incalculable. More and more of the Midwest would be a dust bowl. Californias Central Valley
could no longer be irrigated. Food prices would rise to unprecedented levels . If
this sounds apocalyptic, it is. This is why we need to reduce emissions dramatically. President
Obama has the power not only to deny tar sands oil additional access to Gulf Coast refining, which Canada desires in part
for export markets, but also to encourage economic incentives to leave tar sands and other dirty fuels in the ground.
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specifically discussing
and how the three countries can move forward from the status quo.
the background of
. Moreover, panelists highlighted NAFTAs achievements in trade and investment. NAFTA was the first modern free trade agreement between developed and developing
countries, which promoted greater economic integration but had no mandate for political integration. North American trade has tripled since 1994; the continent did less than $300 billion in trade in 1994, reached a
They provided
examples of underlying regional cooperation
dual bilateralism, in which the United
States works with
Mexico
peak of $942 billion in 2008, and has been declining since then. Looking at the death of trilateralism, panelists agreed such analysis is exaggerated.
potential areas for engagement among the countries. While trilateralism is not dead,
Canada and
separately, has become more common. Participants noted this is particularly apparent when dealing with regulatory,
energy, and border issues. Countries are still, however, looking to harmonize and work toward trilateralism. There was discussion about how NAFTAprimarily a trade agreement for traditional goods, but also
regulatory cooperation,
infrastructure
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Solvency
Status quo solves- we are creating programs now.
ICEF 7/23 (ICEF organizes international student recruitment workshops and offers recruitment,
2013, Mexicos Higher Education Sector Eyeing Expansion, http://monitor.icef.com/2013/07/mexicoshigher-education-sector-eyeing-expansion/, Keerthi, Accessed 9/19/13)
look at Mexicos higher education sector, its relationship with the US and other countries, and offers tips on how to access
Nieto and
US president Barack Obama jointly announced the formation of a Bilateral Forum
on Higher Education, Innovation, and Research. The goals include :
encourage broader access to quality post-secondary education for
the Mexican market. Mexico and its northern neighbour In early May, Mexican president Enrique Pea
traditionally underserved demographic groups, especially in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics
(STEM) fields;
on
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pinpoint the safest areas and ease concerns, because locals are at least able to tell a more nuanced story about safety than that heard in the news.
There are at least four areas where this forum can help improve the numbers: admissions,
tuition, credit transfer and security. On admissions , universities
need confidence that the exchange students are qualified and
students need relief from burdensome paperwork that some of these
programs demand. Usually, this is fixed by one-off agreements between
individual universities. This forum could help create a larger system agreed to by multiple universities that could ease this
process and open up additional opportunities for students in both directions. Tui
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Solvency Answers
Poor transportation, waste management, and
accountability issues ensure agricultural failure.
Energy Skeptic 13 (July 11 2013, Cubas agriculture experiments are
not working out, http://energyskeptic.com/2013/cubas-agricultureexperiments-are-not-working-out/, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi)
President Ral Castro has made agriculture priority No. 1 in his attempt to
remake the country. Yet at this point, by most measures, the project has
failed. Mainly because of poor transportation. Trucks are in short
supply, and the aging ones that exist often break down. But also
because of: Waste Poor management Theft and other problems The
result: many Cubans are actually seeing less food at private markets. This is
despite an increase in the number of farmers and production gains
for certain items. A recent study from the University of Havana showed that market prices
jumped by nearly 20% in 2011 alone. And food imports increased to an estimated $1.7 billion last year, up
from $1.4 billion in 2006. In 2009, hundreds of tons of tomatoes, part of a bumper crop that year, rotted
because of a lack of transportation by the government agency charged with bringing food to processing
centers. Its
worse when it rains, said Javier Gonzalez, 27, a farmer in Artemisa Province
crops wilt and rot because they were not picked
up.
while the mixed economy emerging in types and forms of land tenure and cultivation in Cuba evoke such
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radical reorientation is needed, then, if the current potential of the islands agrarian policy is to be realized.
Since we now know that Cuban cooperatives are viable, the challenge is above all one of political will.
Whoever desires for twenty-first-century Cuba a link between economic efficiency and a system which
favors humanity, society, and the environmentin ownership relations defined by participatory comanagementmust promote the so-called Third Agrarian Reform and render it irreversible.
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about control,
said
Philip Peters, a Cuba analyst with the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based research group. Other analysts
agree, noting that though the agricultural reforms have gone farther than other changes like those that
allow for self-employment they remain constrained by politics. The
government is not
are sending the message that they want to let go, or are
Desperate for foreign revenue, Cubas government is suppressing news of a major cholera
outbreak for fear of alienating tourists. We have to question whether the Cuban government today
prioritizes their need for tourism more than local public health demands, wrote Sherri Porcelain, a
public health expert at the University of Miami and researcher at its Institute for Cuban and Cuban
American Studies. Worst hit by the cholera has been eastern Cuba, where Sandy came ashore last month
halfway between Manzanillo and Santiago, the islands second-largest city and capital of a province with
the same name.It damaged water, electricity and sewer systems, flooded latrines and left behind puddles
where dengue-carrying mosquitoes easily bred. There is tremendous worry in Santiago, said Clavel, one
of a dozen Cubans contacted for this story. Many were dissidents, unafraid to talk about the epidemics.
Their versions coincided in many ways, but could not be individually confirmed. The regimes recent
crackdown on pro-democracy dissidents has prompted the head of Spains ruling party to call for the
democratization of Cuba. I want to say very loudly and clearly that for the citizens of the western
countries, for all the citizens of the democratic countries that share the same cultural roots and the same
bonds with Cuba mean Spaniards have more responsibility than anyone else when it comes to taking on
the dictatorship, and when it comes to collaborating with the dissidence in order to achieve, once and for
all, a return to a free Cuba, she said.
Cuban farms are too burdened and imports are too high to
effectively improve the agricultural industry.
Paz 13 (Laura Paz, 5 March 13, Failing Farms Force Cuba to Import Food,
Inst. For War & Peace Reporting, http://iwpr.net/report-news/failing-farmsforce-cuba-import-food, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi)
Cubas agricultural sector continues to underperform, and the
authorities have acknowledged the heavy cost of importing food to
fill the gap. Shoppers are only too well aware of the implications, which
translate into high retail prices for foodstuffs. As President Ral Castro told a cabinet meeting in December, every time the
production quota is missed, the cost to the state runs into millions
of US dollars. Official figures show that Cuba spent 1.7 billion dollars on food imports in 2012, up from 1.5 billion in 2010. The projection for 2013 is
another 200-million-dollar increase, to 1.9 billion dollars. In early December, state television reported that annual production of
beans a staple item in Cuba was running at 20,000 tons a year,
when consumption was 100,000 tons. Despite President Castros focus on raising farm output since 2008, the
sector has consistently failed to fulfil the Communist Partys stated plan of growing
enough rice, beans, maize, soya and other crops to allow a gradual
reduction of imports. Pensioner Adela Sotolongo said she would be left penniless if she bought a small joint of pork an important meat
for Cubans to celebrate Christmas. For Christmas, she said, I only just managed to bring home a cabbage, a pound of tomatoes and kidney beans. Prices were too high
for my pension. The cost came to 35 pesos, which may not seem much at 1.30 dollars, but is a large proportion of her 210 peso monthly pension. In December, pork
cost 28 pesos a pound (just under half a kilogram). But according to Anabel, a private trader who has her own kiosk, prices are now running at 35 to 40 pesos.
Arroyo Naranjo municipality of the capital Havana, explained the economics, describing how he bought produce from intermediaries who in turn sourced it from farmers.
I have to work like a mule and sell beans at high prices, because 220 pounds will cost me 1,700 pesos and Im only making 200 pesos per sack, he said.
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T- Sanctions
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1NC
1- Interpretations- Engagement is only positive
incentives --- negative pressure like sanctions arent
topical
Ikenberry 12 G. John Ikenberry, Professor of Politics and International
Affairs at Princeton University, Review of The Logic of Positive Engagement,
Foreign Affairs, January / February,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136888/miroslav-nincic/the-logic-ofpositive-engagement-cornell-studies-in-security-aff
When the United States seeks to change the behavior of rival or adversarial states, what are the available
American foreign-policy
makers tend to resort to negative pressures, such as the use of
tools and strategies? In this provocative study, Nincic observes that
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contributors
clearly differentiate engagement from containment. In contrast to
containment, engagement seeks neither to limit, constrain, or delay
increases in the target country's power nor prevent the development
of influence commensurate with its greater power. Rather, it seeks to
"socialize" the rising power by encouraging its satisfaction with the evolving global or regional order. Our
definition of engagement specifically excludes coercive policies .
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2NC Interpretation
1- Interpretation- Engagement requires the provision of
positive incentives
Haass 2k Richard Haass & Meghan OSullivan, Brookings Institution
Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions,
and Foreign Policy, p. 1-2
The term engagement was popularized amid the controversial policy of constructive
engagement pursued by the United States toward South Africa during the first term of the Reagan
administration. However, the term itself remains a source of confusion. To the Chinese, the
word appears to mean simply the conduct of normal relations. In German, no comparable translation
exists. Even to native English speakers, the concept behind the word is unclear.
Except in the few instances in which the United States has sought to isolate a regime or country,
America arguably "engages" states and actors all the time in one
capacity or another simply by interacting with them. This book,
however, employs the term engagement in a much more specific
way, one that involves much more than a policy of nonisolation. In
our usage, engagement refers to a foreign policy strategy that
depends to a significant degree on positive incentives to achieve its
objectives. Certainly, engagement does not preclude the simultaneous use of other foreign policy
instruments such as sanctions or military force. In practice, there is often considerable overlap of
strategies, particularly when the termination or lifting of sanctions is used as a positive inducement. Yet
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T- Dialogue
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1NC
1- Engagement requires direct talks with the target
government
Crocker 9 Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Walsh
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2NC Interpretation
Engagement requires dialogue
Lederach 12 John Paul Lederach, Professor of International
Peacebuilding at the University of Notre Dame and Ph.D. in Sociology from
the University of Colorado, From Isolation to Engagement: Strategies for
Countering Violent Extremism, Peace Policy, 1-25,
http://peacepolicy.nd.edu/2012/01/25/from-isolation-to-engagementstrategies-for-countering-violent-extremism/
The U.S. governments list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations is a central part of a counter-terrorism
strategy based on the isolation of individuals and groups who espouse violence defined as terrorism. This
strategy makes it illegal to provide material support to those individuals and groups, which increasingly is
interpreted to prohibit any contact or consultation with groups on the list.
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partly because (unlike such areas of human behavior as law. religion, education, statecraft, love, and madness) the study
of markets has been of only marginal interest to practitioners of other human sciences, partly because economic theory
has many applications to the understanding of markets, partly (related to the last point) because rational behavior seems
more pervasive in markets than in most other arenas of social interaction, and partly because money offers a measuring
rod for the study of markets comparable to the role of mass and velocity in physics .
T- Sanctions
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1NC
DONT RUN THIS WITH T- DIALOGUE UNLESS YOURE AN IDIOT.
2- Violation- the affirmative isnt real and is not tangibleits just a mandated act.
3- Voting IssueA. Limits- they can do anything with Mexico outside of
tangible effects of the affirmative- explodes research
burden and hurts fairness.
B. Ground- we cant garner Disad links for their aff if its
not substantial enough. Disad links will be too minimal to
create real effects. There are zero counterplans for an
insubstantial action like this.
C. Voter for Fairness and Education.
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Inherency
555
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1NC
Plans non-inherentthe US has done the aff.
Beachy 7/12 (Ben, Public Citizen, 7/12/13, Obama Administration Stands
Firm on Dolphin-Safe Tuna Labels; Will the WTO Authorize Trade Sanctions?,
http://citizen.typepad.com/eyesontrade/2013/07/obama-administrationstands-firm-on-dolphin-safe-tuna-labels-will-the-wto-authorize-tradesanctions.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
In a creative response to a 2012 World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a new regulation supported by Public
that strengthens the criteria for dolphin-safe labeling . Mexico,
which challenged the policy, sought a rollback of the labeling program and has indicated that it may
Citizen
challenge the new regulation and seek WTO authorization to impose trade sanctions against the United States.
Citizens Global Trade Watch. We are now left to wait and wonder if the WTO will continue its anti-environmental, anticonsumer rights legacy or finally side with Flipper and consumers right to make informed decisions about the food we
purchase. In a controversial move, the WTO ruled in 2012 that the U.S. labeling program, for which many countries
tuna qualifies, violated WTO non-discrimination rules because tuna caught in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) had to
meet additional criteria to qualify for the label. The ETP is the only region where dolphins are known to congregate above
schools of tuna. Thus, dolphin-safe criteria for that region are set by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC),
an international body that includes Mexico, and apply to all fishers operating there. The U.S. labeling regime is voluntary.
If U.S. or Mexican fishers choose to use the dolphin-safe methods stipulated by the regime, their tuna qualifies for U.S.
dolphin-safe labels. Tuna not meeting the standard can be sold in the United States without the label. U.S., Ecuadorean
and other tuna fleets chose to meet the dolphin-safe standard. After decades of refusing to transition to more dolphin-safe
fishing methods, Mexico challenged the labeling program at the WTO. The WTO ruled against the policy even though the
same standards applied to U.S. fishers, though the alleged discrimination resulted from Mexican fishers decision not to
meet the standard, and though Mexican tuna could be sold in the United States without the dolphin-safe label.
NOAAs new policy, supported by Public Citizen and other consumer and environmental groups,
addresses the discrimination claim by strengthening the criteria
used to assure that tuna caught in other regions and sold under the
dolphin-safe label is caught without injuring or killing dolphins.
before this improvement,
Even
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The new US
regulation was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), which had circulated its proposals in April in order to allow
for public comments. (See Bridges Weekly, 18 April 2013) The final version was
announced last week, ahead of the WTO-established 13 July compliance
deadline. Under the changes, captains and other approved observers will
obligations and has promised to challenge them at the global trade arbiter.
This, Washington says, would make the labelling program even-handed compared to before, where no
such requirements were necessary for importers outside the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) region.
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Solvency
559
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1NC
1- Mexico would say NOtoo many regulations, fishery
stability, trade counter-measures.
ICTSD 7/18 (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development,
challenge the new regulation and seek WTO authorization to impose trade sanctions against the United States.
A U.S.
ban on the sale of tuna caught with dolphin-deadly purse seine nets was gutted in 1997 after 1991 and 1994 trade
challenges by Mexico and other nations. The ban was enacted after six million dolphins were killed by the nets. Outrage
over the rollback triggered a new era of trade activism. Mexicos latest challenge targeted the voluntary labeling policy
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program
at the WTO. The WTO ruled against the policy even though the same standards applied to
U.S. fishers, though the alleged discrimination resulted from Mexican fishers decision not to meet the
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Navy Power
1- The dolphins that the Navy uses are held in captivity in
select locations to be bred for naval abilities for the
military. Dolphins going extinct in the WILD doesnt mean
that dolphins in captivity would be harmed.
2- This completely contradicts the bio-d advantage. The
point of the first advantage is to stop death of dolphins.
But the second advantage wants to place dolphins in lines
of harm to be killed potentially.
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Biodiversity
1- they have no solid link between death of dolphins in
one region and overall spillover. Dolphins wont die in the
Indian Ocean because a dolphin dies off the coast of
Mexico. Make them prove a causal link.
2- dolphins have already died in the past because of
Mexican tuna farmers- there was no spillover then
meaning no impact.
3- Alt causes to dolphin deathsa) Western Atlantic and disease.
Dell Amore 13 (Christine, 8/21, U.S. Dolphin Deaths Rise to 300; Cause
Still a Mystery, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/08/130821dolphins-deaths-east-coast-nation-animals-science/, National Geographic,
Keerthi, Accessed 8/24)
The spike in bottlenose dolphin deaths this summer is showing no
signs of stopping: Nearly 300 of the marine mammals have died along the East Coast as of
August 20, according to the federal government. (Related: "Why Are Dolphins Dying on East Coast?
The high death toll, covering an area that stretches
from New York to Virginia, has been labeled an "unusual mortality
event," and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has experts scrambling
to figure out what's going on. Based on the rapid increase in dead bodies
washing ashore, and the broad geographic reach, "an infectious
pathogen is at the top of the list of potential causes," according to NOAA's
Experts Alarmed.")
website. "We realize that people are very concerned and anxious to learn what we know about the
dolphin deaths that have been occurring along the mid-Atlantic coast over the past few weeks," Maggie
Mooney-Seus, a spokesperson for NOAA Fisheries, told National Geographic by email. Experts have
collected quite a bit of information from various animals' blood and tissue samples, which they're testing
for a variety of toxins, biotoxins, bacteria, fungi, and viruses, she said. Several of the dead dolphins have
tested positive for morbillivirus, a measles-like, airborne virus that's often fatal in dolphins. A morbillivirus
epidemic hit East Coast bottlenose dolphins in 1987 and 1988, wiping out at least 900 animals and striking
a major blow to that population of migratory mammals. However, there's no definitive cause yet, and some
of the tests take weeks to complete, Mooney-Seus noted. "We share the public's desire to get answers to
what is causing this and are working as quickly as we can to get those answers."
b) Climate Change
WDCS 13 (Whale and Dolphin Conservation, Whales in Hot Water?
http://www.wdcs.org/submissions_bin/whales_hot_water.pdf, graph is omitted,
Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
The impacts of climate change on cetaceans are expected to be
diverse and mediated in various ways (see Figure 1.) Some impacts may be
direct: for example, as temperatures Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second
half of the 20th century were ... very likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years ... Eleven of the last twelve years
rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature. i Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 3 WWF-Canon/Kevin SCHAFER Observations since 1961 show that the average
temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing more
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Indian Ocean is fringed by land, limiting the ability of species to move northwards into cooler habitat as waters warm.
examples are less immediately obvious but still significant. Off northwest Scotland, the common dolphin (Delphinus
delphis), a warm water species, is apparently increasing its range, while the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus
albirostris), a cold water species, is seemingly reducing its range, and fewer sightings and strandings of the latter are
being reported. White-beaked dolphins are generally found in cold water less than 200m deep off northwest Europe.
c) Ocean acidification.
The Ecologist 9 (December 21st, Marine mammals under threat from
ocean noise pollution,
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/385090/marine_mammals_
under_threat_from_ocean_noise_pollution.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
Oceans becoming noisier as sounds travel further in increasingly
acidic water Ocean noise pollution is getting worse and harming marine
mammals because of the affects of carbon emissions and ocean
acidification, according to a new study. Rising carbon emissions are making
the oceans more acidic as the CO2 combines with the seawater to
produce carbonic acid. In turn, ocean acidification and rises in seawater temperature make
seas less able to absorb low-frequency sounds, so noise travels further. This is linked to
deafness in dolphins, beachings and loss of habitat as marine
mammals seek quieter surroundings. The findings, published by scientists
from the University of Hawaii and the University of California, provide more
evidence of the damage caused by ocean acidification. This is a highly
significant paper because attention has focused on the effects of ocean
acidification on calcification [such as the dissolving of shellfish shells], but not on how it will
completely change the acoustics of the oceans, said Dr Jason Hall-Spencer, a Lecturer in Marine Science
and Engineering at the University of Plymouth.
d) Noise pollution, military activities, and infrastructurethis specifically impacts keystone and hotspot species.
The Ecologist 9 (December 21st, Marine mammals under threat from
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Telecom Neg
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Cuba Telecommunications
Negative
Inherency Answers
569
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570
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1NC
Plan is non-inherent:
A. Mexico is already helping Cuba solve its telecom
systems.
Press last updated 2009 (Larry Press, Professor of Information Systems at California State
University, Professor of Information Systems at California State University, MBA and PhD in information
processing are from UCLA, 2013, CUBAN TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT,
Assoc for the Study of the Cuban Economy,
http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume6/pdfs/24press1.fm.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
concentrate resources for competition in Mexico when the Telmex monopoly ends in 1997. (Dolan [5]
specu- lates that there may also have been fear of interfer- ence by the Cuban bureaucracy.) In June, 1994
B. US is investing now.
Press last updated 2009 (Larry Press, Professor of Information Systems at California State
University, Professor of Information Systems at California State University, MBA and PhD in information
processing are from UCLA, 2013, CUBAN TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT,
Assoc for the Study of the Cuban Economy,
http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume6/pdfs/24press1.fm.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
where the major com- munication bottleneck is, and communication was to be encouraged. (Encouraging
political communica- tion without strengthening the economy and internal security is the democrats
dilemma.)
Telecommunications Blockade,
http://cubainsidetheworld.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/obama-reinforces-thetelecommunications-blockade-cuba-miami-south-africa/, Keerthi, Acc
10/31/13)
The Obama administration continues the line of his predecessors and reinforces the unjust economic embargo against
Cuba.
issued a
571
Keerthi Gondi
memorandum with permits to service providers of the United States to: Authorize
companies to establish telecommunications networks agreements
to create the satellite telecommunications facilities and fiber optic
links to U.S. and Cuba. Allow service to telecommunications
companies to begin negotiations and operate under roaming service
agreements with telecommunications service companies for Cuba.
Allow service to television companies and satellite radio to start
the transactions necessary to offer the service to customers in
Cuba.
572
Keerthi Gondi
2NC Non-Inherent
Plan happening now US and foreign investment and
technical assistance.
BuddeCom 2013 (Government research center for Australian
A number
of new access points made available from mid-2013 has extended
the availability of internet access, though restrictions on content remain. ETECSA reduced the cost of domestic phone
the limitations of dial-up connectivity, mean that the potential of the WWW, as recognised in most other countries, remains impossible in Cuba.
calls at the end of 2012 and introduced a calling-party-pays system. Trial DTT services in Havana using the Chinese DTMB system rely on Chinese-donated STBs, given
the scarcity of TVs and STBs in the country.
573
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574
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Solvency
575
Keerthi Gondi
1NC
No AdoptionCubans Dont Have Enough Money
Kang 09(Cecilia, staff writer Washington Post, 4-15-2009, Washington Post, U.S. Telecoms Eager to
Build a Business Presence in Cuba, web, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/04/14/AR2009041403144.html, AC)
before cellphone and Internet providers rush in, they will closely study potential
pitfalls in setting up shop in the Communist nation with one of the poorest
populations in the region, analysts said. The Cuban government has not
been helpful in allowing its citizens access to communications
technology, said David Gross, who was U.S. ambassador and coordinator for International
Information and Communications Policy during the Bush administration. Now that the United
States has opened the door, he said, "the question is whether the Cuban
government will allow people to come inside." Cuba has the lowest percentage
But
of telephone, Internet and cellphone subscribers in Latin America, according to Manuel Cereijo, a professor
of electrical engineering at the University of Miami. About 11 percent of residents subscribe to land-line
telephone service, and 2 percent have cellphone service. Under President Obama's plan, U.S. telecom
companies would be able to build undersea cable networks that connect the two nations .
Cellphone
carriers would be able to contract with Cuba's government-run
wireless operator to provide service to its residents and offer
roaming services to Americans visiting the island. U.S. satellite operators such
as Sirius XM Radio and Dish Network could beam Martha Stewart and MTV programs to the nation. Cubans
problems, huge cost overruns, and the dwindling supply of equipment and technical expertise from the Russians contractors, the project was
halted in 1992. At that time, US$1.1 billion had been spent and the project was 70-percent complete. Work resumed in late 1995. Completion
off; restaurants, nightclubs and movie theaters close early; entire neighborhoods are blacked-out for hours at a time; and bicycles have
replaced automobiles on Cuban streets. In the late 1980s, the Cuban economy already was in decline, but without sufficient fuel to harvest
576
Keerthi Gondi
and transport the sugar crop (Cuba's primary source of foreign exchange),
a significant
economic
Not only do
transmitters require large amounts of power, but the Soviet-made TV sets
in widespread use are not energy efficient, consuming about three
times the power of typical US or Japanese sets. Television
transmissions were cut to as little as 5 hours a day. Because radio receivers require very little energy, radio
transmissions were not cut significantly. However, batteries were in very short supply. (Marrero 1994.)
capita, 202 per 1000, in Latin America) it was an early casualty of the crushing energy shortage.
In mid 1995, as an indication of the stabilizing economy and the importance of television to the entertainment-starved Cuban population, TV
schedules were expanded to 12 hours a day. Black outs also were far less frequent.
Piccone et al. 10 (Theodore J. Piccone, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director for Foreign Policy at
the Brookings Institution, former senior policy advisor on Latin America in the Clinton Administration;
Christopher Sabatini, Senior Director of Policy for the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Editorin-Chief of Americas Quarterly, Carlos Saladrigas, Co-Chairman of the Board of the Cuba Study Group, a
non- profit, non-partisan organization comprised of business and community leaders of Cuban descent, July
2010, Brookings Institute Issue Brief No. 3,Bridging Cubas Communication Divide: How U.S. Policy Can
Help, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba
%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
of language pro- hibiting U.S. investment in Cubas telecom network by, for example, specifying that the
prohibition is limited to physical manufac- ture of network architecture by U.S. firms on the
island; define efficient and adequate telecom ser- vices broadly to
mean fast and reliable links that allow Cubans access to modern satel- lite, internet
and mobile communications services and the necessary infrastructure to make such services feasible; devote a
significant portion
of the $20 mil- lion in U.S. government support to civil so- ciety
to provide
families, small farmers and other entrepreneurs in Cuba with training and equipment
modern telecommunica- tions services;
in
require- ments
to allow for the sale of pre-paid phone cards and phones in Cuba;
on creative ways to donate telecom ser- vices on the island, for example by
offering to donate equipment under the one laptop per child initiative;
develop distance-learning
577
Keerthi Gondi
satellite TV and radio fees for Cuban citizens. By expanding access today through regulatory re- forms, the Obama Administration would also
help ensure that Cubas citizens and economy are well positioned for the transition to a modern, infor- mation-based economy that can provide
broad- based, sustainable economic development on the island.
the job.
578
Keerthi Gondi
579
Keerthi Gondi
Border Infrastructure
Negative
580
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Topicality
581
Keerthi Gondi
Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC). North American Development Bank is also known as NAD-Bank.
582
Keerthi Gondi
583
Keerthi Gondi
Kahler
and Kastner define the engagement policies as follows "It is a policy
of deliberate expanding economic ties with and adversary in order
to change the behaviour of target state and improve bilateral
relations ".(p523-abstact). It is an intentional economic strategy that expects bigger benefits such as
perceive the international political atmosphere from the same and harmonized perspective.
long term economic gains and more importantly; political gains. The main idea behind the engagement
motivation is stated by Rosecrance (1977) in a way that " the direct and positive linkage of interests of
stales where a change in the position of one state affects the position of others in the same direction.
584
Keerthi Gondi
3. Voting Issue:
First, Ground all of our links are about economic
engagement. They can spike out of our links by just
saying they are environmental policy. We cant have
tradeoff links about economics, and our capitalism
arguments go away.s That hurts education.
Second, Limits allowing their aff creates a whole other
topic to prepare for about the environment. That explodes
negative research burden and destroys predictability. It
justifies affs like cooperate with Venezuela on Amazon
biodiversity or negotiating climate treaties with Mexico.
That kills fairness.
585
Keerthi Gondi
The NADBANK
was indeed established under NAFTA, but in the end only to address
adjustment assistance bank to help harmonize development in North America.
In relation to the environment in all three NAFTA countries, a revitalized NADBANK would have to: Support
small scale, sustainable agriculture initiatives. Provide loans for small- and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) for innovation and to comply with nvironmental regulations. Provide loans and financing support for
public infrastructure, renewable energy development, and environmental cleanup projects. Support publicprivate partnerships for environment-related research and development activities. Develop and maintain
an active research team that examines the environment and development aspects of the NAFTA countries
and bank activities.
Politics Link
586
Keerthi Gondi
587
Keerthi Gondi
NAD-Bank
NAD-Bank reform is politically divisive empirics prove.
Leising 12 (Matthew Leising, BA from Berkey University in PS, EL PASO: NADBANK,
http://journalism.berkeley.edu/projects/border/elpasonadbank.html, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
That bank is the North American Development Bank (NADBank). Along with its sister institution, the Border
was created
under intense political pressure and maneuvering in 1993 when the
Clinton Administration was pushing through its plan for NAFTA. To muster enough votes
to pass the treaty, which was originally negotiated under the Bush Administration, President Clinton had to not
only convince Republicans to side with a president they clearly did not
trust, but also had to persuade the historically pro-labor and
environmentally conscious Democrats in Congress that the treaty wouldn't drain
Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC), headquartered in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, NADBank
American manufacturing jobs and ruin the environment in the process . In the end, Clinton succeeded, even surpassing
the number of votes needed by 34, when NAFTA - along with an environmental and labor side agreement - was passed on
November 17, 1993 .
588
Keerthi Gondi
Border TI
589
Keerthi Gondi
Inherency
590
Keerthi Gondi
Reimbursable Work Authorization$1.3 million $11.3 million February 2013. Eagle Pass II.
MEXICO BORDER: CBP Action Needed to Improve Wait Time Data and
Measure Outcomes of Trade Facilitation Efforts, 6/24/13,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-603)
CBP officials at headquarters and in the field cited various ways they
are working to address infrastructure limitations given challenges
caused by budgetary and geographic constraints, among others . In
regard to budgetary constraints, CBP and GSA officials stated that GSA has not received funding to
conduct additional expansion projects in the last 2 fiscal years, and as a result, they have not been able to
GSA
officials reported that the agency has used alternative funding
sources to pay for prioritized infrastructure projects. For example, GSA and
CBP officials reported using funds from the city of Laredo to support the expansion
of primary inspection lanes at the World Trade Bridge crossing in
2011. In regard to geographic constraints, port officials at the Bridge of the Americas stated that the
execute new projects to address infrastructure needs at land ports of entry on the southwest border.
urban area around that crossing limits opportunities to expand the crossings footprint. Officials with the
city of El Paso told us that they are promoting a plan to divert all commercial traffic to the nearby Ysleta
crossing because it has greater capacity to process commercial traffic and a larger footprint that can
accommodate future expansion. CBP field office and port officials stated that they support this plan. In
another example, CBP officials at headquarters and in the field reported participating in binational working
groups in an effort to address the infrastructure limitations of ports of entry along the southwest border.
For example, senior CBP officials reported participating in the U.S.-Mexico Joint Working Committee to
develop regional master plans to better ensure the development of a well coordinated land transportation
and infrastructure planning process along the border.
591
Keerthi Gondi
592
Keerthi Gondi
in loans and grants has been approved to support 11 projects, for which financing agreements are in development. Of the 189 projects
receiving financing from the Bank, 121 have completed construction, as well as all financing activity, except for the amortization of loans.
593
Keerthi Gondi
594
Keerthi Gondi
595
Keerthi Gondi
Solvency
596
Keerthi Gondi
Congress
said 'OK, let's really not make [NADBank] like other development
banks and give money away below interest rates [like they do ],'" Spalding
"We argued so hard on this issue of not making [NADBank and BECC] like other development banks,
said. As such, Congress decided that NADBank loans could only be given at interest rates of at least 1% above the prime
created the seeds of failure for the institutions ," Spalding said bluntly. "The truth is,
right now the money is not going to the projects because the bank has
an interest rate that is just not possible," said Carlos Rincon, the US/Mexico environmental
projects director for pro-NAFTA Environmental Defense (formerly the Environmental Defense Fund). Rincon says that lower
interest rates on loans for water projects can be obtained through state agencies such as the Texas Water Development
Board. Yet this was part of the reasoning in Congress when it approved the interest rates for NADBank loans - it not only
wanted to make the bank self sustaining, it also didn't want NADBank loans to undercut private or state banks with lowerthan-market rates .
597
Keerthi Gondi
Border, Wilson Center Mexico Institute, Authors- (Erik Lee- associate director at the North American Center for
Transborder Studies, MA in Latin American Studies at UCSD; Christopher Wilson- Associate at the Mexico Institute of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, MA in international affairs at American University; Francisco LaraValencia- Associate Professor at the School of Transborder Studies at ASU school of geographical sciences and urban
planning, PhD in urban planning from UMich, MA in regional development from El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico;
Carlos de la Parra Renteria- professor at El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico in the department of urban studies and
environment, PhD in environmental planning from UMich; Rick Van Schoik- director of the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, BA in oceanography and engineer at the US Naval Academy, post
graduate studies at in philanthropy and development at Tufts University; Kristofer Patron-Soberano- Research Assistant at
Colegio de la Fontera Norte [The College of the Northern Border]; Eric L. Olson- Associate Director of the Latin American
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, American University and B.A., History and
Secondary Education, Trinity College; Andrew Selee- Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute
at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Ph.D. in Policy Studies from the University of Maryland, M.A. in Latin American Studies from
the University of California, B.A. in Latin American Studies from Washington University in St. Louis), State of the Border
Report sponsored by the Border Research Partnership,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf) KTG
border, which made the border thicker for both illicit and le- gitimate traffic, but also an effort to better
coordinate border management. In- teragency coordination can also be difficult.
Adding to this is the large number of state agencies as well as local
governments that must conduct international work with their
counterparts in the U.S. or Mexico. While there are formal and de facto agencies that
manage our border interactions, no binational organi- zation exists to
coordinate efforts across areas such as those examined in this
volume: quality of life, trade, security and environment.
598
Keerthi Gondi
border communities felt themselves increasingly affected by decisions made in Washington and
insistence on being included in these discussions led to the
regional border master plan pro- cess, in which state DOTs lead
stakeholder discussions on border infrastruc- ture priorities. While this process makes
sense from a U.S. perspective (in the absence of a national transportation plan, state DOTs essentially manage
and spend federal transportation dollars), this process is somewhat of a mismatch for
Mexicos more centralized political system. The system seems to work bet- ter in certain crossof transportation. As
Mexico City, their
border communities than others, as is seen with California and Baja Californias award-winning master plan. There is no simple answer to the
complex challenge of coordinating border planning and management, but a few key ingredients for success can be identified. First,
border stakeholders need to be at the tableborder experts in Washington and Mexico City are
no substitute for those living the implications of policy on a daily basis. Nonetheless, a strong federal role is important. Bor- der communities
often work together, but they also compete to attract federal resources and trade flows. The federal agencies are well placed to analyze and
ross-border
collaboration is vital. To strengthen regional competitiveness and
security, we need regional coordination.
balance competing needs, especially in dialogue with border communities. Finally, and hopefully obviously, c
Unfortunately,
goods and individuals entering the United States has not kept pace with the expansion of
bilateral trade or the population growth of the border region. Instead, the need for greater border security
following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 led to a thickening of the border, dividing the twin cities that
characterize the region and adding costly, long and unpredictable wait times for commercial and personal
crossers alike. Congestion acts as a drag on the competitiveness of the region and of the United States and
Mexico in their entirety.
security and efficiency at the same time. The development of the 21st Century Border initia- tive by
the Obama and Calderon administrations has yielded some advances in this direction, but the efforts need
Moderate
investments to update infrastructure and to fully staff the ports of
entry are certainly needed, as long lines and overworked staff promote
neither efficiency nor security. But in a time of tight federal budgets, asking for
more resources cannot be the only answer. Strategic efforts that do more with less,
improving efficiency and reducing congestion, are also needed. Trusted traveler and
shipper programs (i.e. SENTRI, FAST, C-TPAT, Global Entry) allow vetted, low-risk
individuals and shipments expedited passage across the border. Improving these programs and significantly expanding enrollment
could increase throughput with minimal investments in
infrastructure and staffingall while strengthening security by giving border officials more
to be redoubled. A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 60
time to focus on un- known and potentially dangerous individuals and shipments.
599
Keerthi Gondi
border, which made the border thicker for both illicit and le- gitimate traffic, but also an effort to better
coordinate border management. In- teragency coordination can also be difficult.
Adding to this is the large number of state agencies as well as local
governments that must conduct international work with their
counterparts in the U.S. or Mexico. While there are formal and de facto agencies that
manage our border interactions, no binational organi- zation exists to
coordinate efforts across areas such as those examined in this
volume: quality of life, trade, security and environment.
Border, Wilson Center Mexico Institute, Authors- (Erik Lee- associate director at the North American Center for
Transborder Studies, MA in Latin American Studies at UCSD; Christopher Wilson- Associate at the Mexico Institute of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, MA in international affairs at American University; Francisco LaraValencia- Associate Professor at the School of Transborder Studies at ASU school of geographical sciences and urban
planning, PhD in urban planning from UMich, MA in regional development from El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico;
Carlos de la Parra Renteria- professor at El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico in the department of urban studies and
environment, PhD in environmental planning from UMich; Rick Van Schoik- director of the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, BA in oceanography and engineer at the US Naval Academy, post
graduate studies at in philanthropy and development at Tufts University; Kristofer Patron-Soberano- Research Assistant at
Colegio de la Fontera Norte [The College of the Northern Border]; Eric L. Olson- Associate Director of the Latin American
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, American University and B.A., History and
Secondary Education, Trinity College; Andrew Selee- Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute
at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Ph.D. in Policy Studies from the University of Maryland, M.A. in Latin American Studies from
the University of California, B.A. in Latin American Studies from Washington University in St. Louis), State of the Border
Report sponsored by the Border Research Partnership,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf) KTG
600
Keerthi Gondi
border communities felt themselves increasingly affected by decisions made in Washington and
Mexico City, their insistence on being included in these discussions led to the
regional border master plan pro- cess, in which state DOTs lead
stakeholder discussions on border infrastruc- ture priorities. While this process makes
sense from a U.S. perspective (in the absence of a national transportation plan, state DOTs essentially manage
and spend federal transportation dollars), this process is somewhat of a mismatch for
Mexicos more centralized political system. The system seems to work bet- ter in certain crossof transportation. As
border communities than others, as is seen with California and Baja Californias award-winning master plan. There is no simple answer to the
complex challenge of coordinating border planning and management, but a few key ingredients for success can be identified. First,
border stakeholders need to be at the tableborder experts in Washington and Mexico City are
no substitute for those living the implications of policy on a daily basis. Nonetheless, a strong federal role is important. Bor- der communities
often work together, but they also compete to attract federal resources and trade flows. The federal agencies are well placed to analyze and
ross-border
collaboration is vital. To strengthen regional competitiveness and
security, we need regional coordination.
balance competing needs, especially in dialogue with border communities. Finally, and hopefully obviously, c
Border, Wilson Center Mexico Institute, Authors- (Erik Lee- associate director at the North American Center for
Transborder Studies, MA in Latin American Studies at UCSD; Christopher Wilson- Associate at the Mexico Institute of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, MA in international affairs at American University; Francisco LaraValencia- Associate Professor at the School of Transborder Studies at ASU school of geographical sciences and urban
planning, PhD in urban planning from UMich, MA in regional development from El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico;
Carlos de la Parra Renteria- professor at El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico in the department of urban studies and
environment, PhD in environmental planning from UMich; Rick Van Schoik- director of the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, BA in oceanography and engineer at the US Naval Academy, post
graduate studies at in philanthropy and development at Tufts University; Kristofer Patron-Soberano- Research Assistant at
Colegio de la Fontera Norte [The College of the Northern Border]; Eric L. Olson- Associate Director of the Latin American
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, American University and B.A., History and
Secondary Education, Trinity College; Andrew Selee- Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute
at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Ph.D. in Policy Studies from the University of Maryland, M.A. in Latin American Studies from
the University of California, B.A. in Latin American Studies from Washington University in St. Louis), State of the Border
Report sponsored by the Border Research Partnership,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf) KTG
illegal bulk cash transfers or firearms trafficking can be done more effectively through investiga- tions and
Much
work remains to be done in strengthening overall law enforcement
capacity in both countries to challenge cross-border trafficking and
criminal ac- tivity. For example, fully implementing justice reform and advancing police prointelligence operations away from the border than via random vehicle checks at the border.
fessionalization in Mexico, as well as disrupting the organizations engaged in migrant smuggling, human
trafficking and moving illicit substances northward 91 The State of the Border Report into the United
States would be important steps forward. Interestingly, border states such as Chihuahua and Baja
California stand out for their implementa- tion of justice reform and are in the vanguard of this
fundamental change. In addition, the United States needs to demonstrate greater political courage and
creativity to fulfill its commitments to reduce the demand for illegal drugs at home and disrupt the flow of
Additionally,
progress in modernizing and professionalizing Mexicos multiple
police forces and improving public trust in law enforcement will be
critical to creating a safer U.S.-Mexico border region. There is room
for much more im- provement at all levels of law enforcement ,
weapons and money that exacerbate the violence associated with drug trafficking.
particularly at the state and munici- pal levels. Achieving the delicate balance between federal and local
needs, and economic versus security concerns, will require greater patience in the form of a more realistic
(longer) policy implementation timeline, improved leadership, and creative thinking by all parties.
601
Keerthi Gondi
Unfortunately,
goods and individuals entering the United States has not kept pace with the expansion of
bilateral trade or the population growth of the border region. Instead, the need for greater border security
following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 led to a thickening of the border, dividing the twin cities that
characterize the region and adding costly, long and unpredictable wait times for commercial and personal
crossers alike. Congestion acts as a drag on the competitiveness of the region and of the United States and
the Obama and Calderon administrations has yielded some advances in this direction, but the efforts need
Moderate
investments to update infrastructure and to fully staff the ports of
entry are certainly needed, as long lines and overworked staff promote
neither efficiency nor security. But in a time of tight federal budgets, asking for
more resources cannot be the only answer. Strategic efforts that do more with less,
improving efficiency and reducing congestion, are also needed. Trusted traveler and
shipper programs (i.e. SENTRI, FAST, C-TPAT, Global Entry) allow vetted, low-risk
individuals and shipments expedited passage across the border. Improving these programs and significantly expanding enrollment
could increase throughput with minimal investments in
infrastructure and staffingall while strengthening security by giving border officials more
to be redoubled. A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 60
time to focus on un- known and potentially dangerous individuals and shipments.
602
Keerthi Gondi
2NC
US over-arching domestic and foreign policy makes
Mexico policy impossible.
Wilson et al. May 2013 (The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico
Border, Wilson Center Mexico Institute, Authors- (Erik Lee- associate director at the North American Center for
Transborder Studies, MA in Latin American Studies at UCSD; Christopher Wilson- Associate at the Mexico Institute of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, MA in international affairs at American University; Francisco LaraValencia- Associate Professor at the School of Transborder Studies at ASU school of geographical sciences and urban
planning, PhD in urban planning from UMich, MA in regional development from El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico;
Carlos de la Parra Renteria- professor at El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico in the department of urban studies and
environment, PhD in environmental planning from UMich; Rick Van Schoik- director of the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, BA in oceanography and engineer at the US Naval Academy, post
graduate studies at in philanthropy and development at Tufts University; Kristofer Patron-Soberano- Research Assistant at
Colegio de la Fontera Norte [The College of the Northern Border]; Eric L. Olson- Associate Director of the Latin American
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, American University and B.A., History and
Secondary Education, Trinity College; Andrew Selee- Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute
at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Ph.D. in Policy Studies from the University of Maryland, M.A. in Latin American Studies from
the University of California, B.A. in Latin American Studies from Washington University in St. Louis), State of the Border
Report sponsored by the Border Research Partnership,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf) KTG
immense opportuni- ties. The joining together and in many ways overlapping of two great countries and
societies has created a region fertile with business opportunities, rich in culture, and full of delicate natural
Recession context, lawmakers and law enforcement officials in both countries Managing the U.S.-Mexico
border is extraordinarily difficult and made more so by its intense mix of international and domestic policy
issues. A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 4 have been asked to make the border
efficient and user-friendly for legitimate travelers and impenetrable for those with more nefarious
objectives. The task is made more complicated by the fact that migration, drugs and border security are
among the most politically charged issues in both countries while the U.S. and Mexican economies depend
heavily on binational trade. This enormous and poorly understood region presents both nations with policy
challenges so vexing that they tend to obscure and overshadow areas of far more positive and even
impressive interaction and collaboration.
603
Keerthi Gondi
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, American University and B.A., History and
Secondary Education, Trinity College; Andrew Selee- Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute
at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Ph.D. in Policy Studies from the University of Maryland, M.A. in Latin American Studies from
the University of California, B.A. in Latin American Studies from Washington University in St. Louis), State of the Border
Report sponsored by the Border Research Partnership,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf) KTG
Since 9/11 and the increase in security at our land ports of entry with
Mexico, one of the major points of contention between border
communities, regional interest groups and Washington has concerned staffing levels
and their effects on local economies. While the number of U.S.
Border Patrol agents has more than doubled over the past decade, Office of Field
Operations (blue-uniformed CBP Officers that staff the ports of entry) staffing has remained
relatively stable (see Figure 6). In 2007, the U.S. Congress began to fund the vigilance of the
areas between the POEs at a higher level than the POEs themselves. This is surprising given
the increase in bilateral trade, the significant increases in border wait times since 9/11,
and evidence that appears to suggest that the POEs, rather than the areas between them, are a more
likely crossing point for drugs and dangerous individuals (see the chapter on border security). The U.S.
Overall,
the border region has made significant progress in improving many of the key
indicators in education and culture during the last decade. However, for the longer term, it will
be essential to expand resource allocation to education for the
longer term, it will be es- sential to expand resource allo- cation to
education and cultural services on both sides of the border to catch
up and eliminate chronic deficits in capacity and performance . A
states, border counties are more likely to be worse while Mexican municipalities tend to be slightly better.
Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 42 and cultural services on both sides of the border to catch up and
604
Keerthi Gondi
605
Keerthi Gondi
accounting for the possible environmental benefits of reduced illegal border flows, some
Trade Advantage
606
Keerthi Gondi
607
Keerthi Gondi
1nc trade fl
<UQ updates>
Trade with Mexico isnt key to the economy its a small
percentage of the GDP and their authors conflate
correlation with causation
Villarreal 12 M. Angeles Villarreal, Specialist in International Trade and
series of government decrees protecting the domestic auto sector by reserving the domestic automobile
market for domestically produced parts and vehicles. NAFTA established the removal of Mexicos restrictive
trade and investment policies and the elimination of U.S. tariffs on autos and auto parts. By 2006, the
automotive industry has had the highest dollar increase ($41 billion) in total U.S. trade with Mexico since
NAFTA passage. The main NAFTA provisions related to textiles and apparel consisted of eliminating tariffs
and quotas for goods coming from Mexico and eliminating Mexican tariffs on U.S. textile and apparel
products. To benefit from the free trade provision, goods were required to meet the rules of origin
provision, which assured that apparel products that were traded among the three NAFTA partners were
made of yarn and fabric made within the free trade area. The strict rules of origin provisions were meant to
ensure that U.S. textiles producers would continue to supply U.S. apparel companies that moved to Mexico.
Without a rules of origin provision, apparel companies would have been able to import low-cost fabrics
from countries such as China and export the final product to the United States under the free trade
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downward pressures on Mexicos growth, if Congress passes key energy, fiscal and accountability reforms,
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supports more than six million U.S. jobs, and the return of
manufacturing competitiveness to the region, as well as the robust
growth of the Mexican economy, presents an opportunity to
significantly increase export supported employment should steps be
taken to support further advances in North American
competitiveness.8 The amazing thing is that this recent boom in
bilateral trade has occurred without a strategy.
achieved if the governments of the United States and Mexico ideally in conjunction with Canada
designed and implemented a comprehensive plan to improve the competitiveness of our region in the
global marketplace.
grown exponentially , reaching a record high of nearly $400 billion in 2010. Mexico is now the third-ranked commercial
partner of the U.S. and the second largest market for U.S. exports. Mexico spent $163 billion on U.S. goods in 2010, and trade with Mexico
Mexico are larger than all U.S. exports to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) combined, as well as all combined sales to Great
Britain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Twenty-two states count Mexico as their No. 1 or No. 2 export market, and it is a top-five market
for 14 other states. American consumers and businesses import large quantities of jointly produced products and services from Mexico such as
the truly unique quality of this trade or joint production relationship. U.S.-Mexico Border Management: Building the Infrastructure for Future
Competitiveness Sharing a 2,000-mile long border with Mexico needs to be recognized as both a challenge and an opportunity. Though
legitimate crossing of people, goods and services across the border, security has taking an overwhelmingly dominant role in recent years,
Declaration . Recognizing the importance of fostering the commercial relationship, both countries have
agreed to coordinate efforts to enhance economic competitiveness by
expediting lawful trade. The basic idea is that developing a modern and secure border
infrastructure will give an added boost to our regions safety and
competitiveness in the world.
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Schoik, assistant researcher at the Mexico Institute, Kristofer Patron-Soberano, economist at Universidad
Autonoma de Sinaloa, Eric L. Olson, Associate Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow
Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, Andrew Selee, Wilson Centers Vice President, Ph.D.
in Policy Studies, May 2013, The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico
Border, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf, Keerthi, Acc
11/12.13)
Tourism is another key economic driver for the region. Mexico is the
number one foreign destination for U.S. tourists, and Mexican tourists comprise
the second largest group of foreign visits to the United States each year (see Table 1 below).
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The trade balance with Mexico went from a surplus of $3.1 billion in
to a deficit of $99.5 billion in 2011. In 2011, 13% of total U.S. merchandise
exports were destined for Mexico and 12% of U.S. merchandise
imports came from Mexico. After the significant decrease in trade in 2009 that resulted from
the global economic downturn, U.S.-Mexico trade increased considerably in 2010
and 2011. Part of the increase in trade with Mexico may be attributed to
the increasing trade in energy. Crude petroleum oil accounts for 15% of
total U.S. imports from Mexico. The value of U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico increased
Mexico.
1994
over 500% since the 1990s, increasing from $6.3 billion in 1996 to $39.8 billion in 2011. Mexico is the
leading destination for U.S. exports in refined oil.
to Mexico increased by $18.4 billion from 1996 to 2011, from $1.0 billion to $19.4 billion,
approximately an 1800% increase.6 As stated previously, Mexico relies heavily on the
United States as an export market; this reliance has diminished very slightly over the
years. The percentage of Mexicos total exports going to the United States decreased from 83% in 1996 to
79% in 2011. Mexicos share of the U.S. market has lost ground since 2002. In 2003, China surpassed
Mexico as the second-leading supplier of U.S. imports. The United States is losing market share of Mexicos
import market. Between 1996 and 2011, the U.S. share of Mexicos total imports decreased from 75% to
50%. China is Mexicos second-leading source of imports.
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originating in Mexico
can reach North American customers in one week or less, versus 20
to 30 days from Asia," says Troy Ryley, managing director for Transplace Mexico, a division of
Frisco, Texas-based third-party logistics (3PL) provider Transplace. " This helps drive transport
costs down, increases speed to market, and reduces inventory cost.
It also simplifies forecasting." U.S.-Mexico cross-border trade is not without challenges,
however. Factors such as divergent regulatory regimes, capacity shortages, customs complexities,
These improvements to
intermodal service come as a result of equipment and connectivity
enhancements. Connectivity at the border between the forwarding
and receiving railroads has greatly improved, reducing or eliminating
the delays that once characterized this handoff. For example, Kansas City
offers a 15- to 20-percent cost advantage over truck."
Southern offers its TransBorder service, an all-rail service between the United States and Canada and
Shipments do
not stop at the border for customs clearance. Instead, they travel in bond,
clearing customs at interior Mexican origins and destinations. TransBorder offers a
through-rate structure that provides shippers a single price and bill
for ramp-to-ramp shipments to and from Mexico. Other important developments
major Mexican markets through collaboration with Kansas City Southern de Mxico.
that support improved intermodal service include: Automation and streamlined requirements create a
Mexico's customs service only operated Monday through Friday, with no weekend service. Now they work
technology for terminal reporting, and track-and-trace systems. Visibility is improving. "We receive more
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reliable and consistent information from ramp operators," reports Noel. "We are working with our trade
partners to provide real-time updates from the road so we can get closer to providing real-time door-todoor visibility."
D. FDI proves
Villareal, 12 M. Angeles, Specialist in International Trade and Finance,
Congressional Research Service, 8/9,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf, U.S.-Mexico Economic
Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been an integral part of the economic
relationship between the United States and Mexico since NAFTA implementation.
FDI consists of investments in real estate, manufacturing plants, and
retail facilities, in which the foreign investor owns 10% or more of the entity. The United States is
the largest source of FDI in Mexico . The stock of U.S. FDI increased from $17.0
billion in 1994 to $91.4 billion in 2011, a 440% increase (see Table 4). Mexican FDI in the United States is much lower than
U.S. investment in Mexico, with levels of Mexican FDI fluctuating over the last 10 years. In 2010, Mexican FDI in the United
flows
into Mexico. NAFTA provisions on foreign investment helped to lock in the reforms and increase investor
confidence. Under NAFTA, Mexico gave U.S. and Canadian investors nondiscriminatory treatment of their investments as
manufacturing industry , of which the maquiladora industry forms a major part. (See Mexicos Exportthe industry has helped attract investment
from countries such as the United States that have a relatively large
amount of capital. For the United States, the industry is important because U.S. companies are able to locate
Oriented Assembly Plants below.) In Mexico,
their labor-intensive operations in Mexico and lower their labor costs in the overall production process.
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Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, holds an M.B.A. from the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State
University and a B.A. in Political Science and International Studies from Arizona State University, et al., with Erik Lee,
Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, former assistant
director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California-San Diego, holds an M.A. in Latin American
Studies from the University of California-San Diego, Rick Van Schoik, Director of the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, former Navy Seal, former managing director of the Southwest Consortium
for Environmental Research and Policy, conducted post-graduate studies in philanthropy at Harvard Graduate School of
Education and in sustainable development at Tufts University, holds a B.A. in oceanography and engineering from the U.S.
Naval Academy, 2011, http://21stcenturyborder.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/realizing-the-value-of-crossborder-trade-withmexico2.pdf, Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico | ADM
These delays are significant for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that American
firms are constantly attempting to reduce their inventory costs in an attempt to remain competitive. While
if
efficiently managed, our proximity to Mexico can provide American
firms with a constant and predictable flow of goods that may reduce inventory
costs and provide firms the ability to respond rapidly and effectively to sudden market changes. With
this fundamental fact in mind, in May of 2010 the U.S. and Mexico signed
the 21st Century Border Management Joint Declaration . Recognizing the
importance of fostering the commercial relationship, both countries have agreed to
coordinate efforts to enhance the economic competitiveness by
expediting lawful trade. The idea is that development of modern and
secure border infrastructure will give an added boost to our regions
competitiveness in the world and at the same time increase our access to a wider, more
importing from China to the U.S. may require a company to hold more than 100 days of inventory,
affordable and ever improving quality set of goods. Today more than 75,000 trucks (carrying close to 80 %
of our two-way trade) cross our border on a daily basis. That this much traffic is able to cross our
congested borders is due in part to important advances in border infrastructure in the last couple of years
neighbors.
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It is possible,
to obtain a rough orderofmagnitude estimate of the effects of
NAFTA on U.S. GDP by piggybacking on the results of other studies. In an earlier report, CBO
concluded from a survey and analysis of the relevant empirical literature that barriers to
trade with big emerging economies (such as those of China, Hong Kong, South Korea,
Singapore, Taiwan, and Mex ico) cost the U.S. economy somewhere between 5 cents and 35
analyzing trade on a productby product basis. The CBO model does not do that.
however,
cents for each $1 loss of exports.6 That estimate was obtained from studies showing the conversethat
the removal of trade restrictions led to a rise in GDP of 5 cents to 35 cents for each $1 increase in exports
so it is legitimate to conclude back to that converse. That is, one can multiply the ratio of 5 cents to 35
cents for each $1 increase in exports by the estimates from CBOs model of how much NAFTA has
Such a
method implicitly incorporates the effects of trade diversion because
the empirical literature that CBO surveyed to obtain the ratio considered trade
diversion.7 Applying the ratio to the estimates from CBOs model leads to
the conclusion that NAFTA has increased U.S. GDP, but by a very
increased U.S. exports to Mexico to produce a rough estimate of NAFTAs effects on U.S. GDP.
(see Table 2). The trade increases wrought by NAFTA raised Mexican
GDP by much larger percentages than they raised U.S. GDPquite likely 16 to 21 times the U.S.
percentagesbecause of the much smaller size of the Mexican economy.8
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note the challenges inherent in any effort to assign direct causation to one
specific trade agreement. The report came to three main conclusions:
U.S. trade with Mexico was growing before NAFTA's implementation,
and would likely have continued to grow with or without the deal on a
scale that " dwarfs the effects" of NAFTA itself ; The direct effect of
NAFTA on U.S.-Mexico trade is fairly small, and thus the direct impact
on the U.S. labor market is also small; and Overall, the NAFTA deal has
expanded U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) " very slightly ," and has
had a similar effect-both positive and small-on the Canadian and
Mexican economies.
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MDB Advantage
Multilateral Development Banks fail there is no
accountability and transparency with investment.
Bilateral aid is better.
Nelson 12 (Rebecca M. Nelson, Analyst in International Trade and Finance
and government aid agencies, and are not targeted at the MDBs specifically. For example, it is argued that the
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Committee on Financial Services are responsible for managing MDB authorization legislation. During the
Operations Subcommittees of the House and Senate Committees on Appropriations manage the relevant
appropriations legislation. MDB appropriations are included in the annual foreign operations appropriations
act or a larger omnibus appropriations act. In recent years, the Administrations budget request for the
MDBs has included three major components: funds to replenish the concessional lending windows, funds to
increase the size of the non-concessional lending windows (the general capital increases), and funds for
more targeted funds administered by the MDBs, particularly those focused on climate change and food
while capital
increases for the MDB non-concessional windows occur much more infrequently.
security.24 Replenishments of the MDB concessional windows happen regularly,
Quite unusually, all the MDBs are in the process of increasing their non-concessional windows, primarily to
address the increase in demand for loans that resulted from the financial crisis, prepare for future crises,
and, in the case of the IDB, recover from financial losses resulting from the financial crisis.
Simultaneous capital increases for all the MDBs has not happened
since the 1970s.
For more information on the general capital increases, see CRS Report R41672,
Multilateral Development Banks: General Capital Increases, by Martin A. Weiss. Data on U.S. contributions
(including requests and appropriated funds) to the MDBs can be found in CRS Report RS20792, Multilateral
Development Banks: U.S. Contributions FY2000-FY2013, by Rebecca M. Nelson.
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associated institutional and policy reforms, as well as overcoming political economy problems. This is a role for country
operational units. However, in practice, the fact that most technical support is bundled with tra- ditional lending
operations creates a major internal bias in operational units in their favor and thus against the mainstreaming of new
financial products.
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Topicality
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1nc T Dialogue
Engagement requires direct talks with the target
government
Crocker 9 Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Walsh
Prefer it
First, limits any regulation, product, or private action is
justified infinite unpredictable AFFs
Second, ground means-focus is key to stable disad and
counterplan prep they create a race to shallow,
unpredictable single-sector strategies
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2nc interpretation
Econ engagement is only direct aid and trade agreements
the AFF is third-party engagement
Daga 13 (Sergio Daga, director of research at Politicas Publicas para la Libertad,
Bolivia, visiting senior policy analyst, Heritage Foundation, M.A. Economics, University
of Chile, B.A. Economics, Catholic University of Bolivia, also trained at Libertad y
Desarrollo, Chile, and the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, United States,
Economics of the 2013-2014 Debate Topic: U.S. Economic Engagement Toward
Cuba, Mexico or Venezuela, National Center for Policy Analysis, Debate
Backgrounder No. 7, 5-15-2013, http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/Message_to_Debaters_6-713.pdf)
Economics is the branch of human knowledge concerned with the satisfaction of human wants through
the production of goods and services, and the exchange of those goods and services between two or
government, and some are outlawed. Trade and other economic activities that cross national borders
such as sales of goods and services, travel, migration or transfers of money are regulated by both
and the government of the destination country. The
government itself could be an economic actor, buying and selling
from other governments or firms in other countries; or the
government could regulate the private economic activities of
individuals and firms. Economic engagement between or among countries can
take many forms, but this document will focus on government-to-government
engagement through 1) international trade agreements designed to
lower barriers to trade; and 2) government foreign aid; next, we will
contrast government-to-government economic engagement with
private economic engagement through 3) international investment,
called foreign direct investment; and 4) remittances and migration
by individuals. All of these areas are important with respect to the countries mentioned in the
debate resolution; however, when discussing economic engagement by the
U.S. federal government, some issues are more important with respect to
some countries than to others.
The U.S. governments list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations is a central part of a counter-terrorism
strategy based on the isolation of individuals and groups who espouse violence defined as terrorism. This
strategy makes it illegal to provide material support to those individuals and groups, whichh increasingly is
Peacebuilding, on
the other hand, proposes a strategy of engagement. Engagement
interpreted to prohibit any contact or consultation with groups on the list.
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Solvency
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the Federal Electricity Commission (Comision Federal de Electricidad or CFE) essentially controlling the whole sector. To
date, this level of control has stifled innovation, but we believe
done on a self-supply basis, where these players can only generate electricity for their own consumption, and can only sell
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positive opportunities will drive overall growth for Mexico due to the
confluence of several trends. Key among these would be forwardthinking energy policies designed to raise the countrys international competitiveness. These entail the
integration of renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainability goals into broader programs that smart grid
initiatives would drive. Another example would be the implementation of strategic pilot programs used to evaluate new
technologies for their technical, operational, and cost effectiveness.. This exclusive reports projects Mexicos market
value (2012-2020) for the technology segments below. Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Distribution
Automation (DA) Advanced Transmission and Substations/Systems Customer Systems Enterprise IT Systems, Software,
& Communications Grid Scale Energy Storage Microgrids C&I Energy Management Systems Advanced Distribution
Chairman of the Smart Cities Council, an industry coalition, July 19, Why the
next wave of smart grid is doomed to fail,
http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Business_Strategy/Why-thenext-wave-of-smart-grid-is-doomed-to-fail-5891.html#.Um3CxhbaZUQ,
Keerthi, Acc 10/27/13)
A recent article in the New York Times attempts to answer the sector's biggest conundrum. Most political
leaders put grid modernization high on their list of must-do projects .
Yet very little gets done . "For the most part, experts say the grid is not being changed, at least
not on a scale big enough to make much difference." The Times says the
reason is balkanization. It reports that more than 500 owners have a stake
in the transmission grid. As a result, a new plan to renew the Eastern Interconnection is unlikely to get
anywhere. The Eastern Interconnection is one of the three interconnections that together encompass Canada and the
continental U.S. (see picture nearby). A new plan proposes a redesign to create a grid suitable for shipping bulk electricity
said how we would pay for it," one participant admitted to the Times. The study revealed that business-as-usual would
require $18.5 billion in new transmission lines between 2010 and 2030. The new plan to accommodate renewables on a
grand scaled would require $115 billion. "It
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distributed control can reduce the criticality of some control center and thus weaken the impact of attacks
be utilized to either cheat the meters for an unfair price or disrupt power system operations. More
trigger the collapse of normal power transmission and consequently results in blackouts in the distribution
California, Arizona and Mexico, and the most recent 2012 massive blackout in India have all left millions of
industry are paying growing attention to the power grid cascading analysis and many significant results
have been published [9{12].
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A2 Smart Grid
(also can be used as answers to regular Grid)
Since performing research for my book, Climate Capitalism (written with Hunter Lovins) a few years ago, I
have become increasingly convinced that
in the clean tech revolution. I believe that the smart grid can be the enabling
technology that allows all kinds of other low-carbon innovations to flourish. The smart grid will give
industrial, commercial, and residential consumers real-time access to energy consumption and costs,
which will lead to demand side reductions (i.e. energy efficiency). It also promises to support distributed,
renewable energies from rooftop solar panels to electric vehicles (EVs). Combined with smart homes, the
latter could even be used to power a consumer's home for a few days in the case of power outages, which
could be reduced in frequency, volume, and duration with help from smart grids. With corporate
behemoths like GE, Cisco, and IBM as well as hundreds (if not thousands) of tech startups already in this
space, why hasn't the smart grid become more ubiquitous? Unsurprisingly, Europe seems further down the
path with the potential to leverage wind power from the North Sea Grid and solar power from southern
Europe in a continental supergrid.
being addressed by the industry, as evidenced by the forthcoming Smart Grid Security Summit to be held
issue is Smart Power: Climate Change, The Smart Grid, and the Future of Electric Utilities. Guido Bartels,
IBMs head of Global Energy and Utilities, Chairman of GridWise Alliance and an adviser to the Obama
Administration, has also spoken up about the need for more regulatory action to provide the proper
incentives for the adoption of smart grid technology.
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easy and visible. In reality smart meters are the tail that is trying to wag the digital transformation going
this confusion of smart meters with smarter grid by ordering utilities to take
State regulators often had different
motivations including a desire to expand the use of renewable energy from wind and solar into the
supply mix or to reduce power plant emissions. Smart grid is NOT the same thing as
the Federal money and ask questions later.
the clean energy economy . This co-mingling of political goals lead to the other factor
driving the smart grid trough of disillusionment today. Just because we install smart meters on the side of
our houses does not mean the air will suddenly be cleaner or that solar panels will magically appear on
every roof. T he
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NAFTA DA Yo
T
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STRAT
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T Dialogue
Engagement requires direct talks with the target
government
Crocker 9 Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Walsh
School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, Former Assistant
Secretary of State for African Affairs, Terms of Engagement, New York
Times, 9-13, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/opinion/14crocker.html?
_r=0
PRESIDENT OBAMA will have a hard time achieving his foreign policy goals
until he masters some key terms and better manages the expectations they convey. Given
the furor that will surround the news of Americas readiness to hold talks with Iran, he could start
with engagement one of the trickiest terms in the policy
lexicon. The Obama administration has used this term to contrast its
approach with its predecessors resistance to talking with
adversaries and troublemakers. His critics show that they misunderstand the concept of
engagement when they ridicule it as making nice with nasty or hostile regimes. Lets get a few things
straight. Engagement in statecraft is not about sweet talk. Nor is it based on the illusion that our problems
with rogue regimes can be solved if only we would talk to them. Engagement is not normalization, and its
goal is not improved relations. It is not akin to dtente, working for rapprochement, or appeasement. So
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Solvency FL
Micro-financing is very uncertain in Mexico finance and
loan companies will not assess client needs, there is
organizational failure, there is no transparency, too many
regulations exist, competition is too high, and no private
sector participation.
Guzman 11 (Sergio Guzman, analyst at the Center for Financial Inclusion,
lack of solid
analyzed faced more than one cause of failure , but sought to identify the main
cause. The study is based on interviews with experts and their opinion about
what could be considered a failed experience. It identifies six types
of common causes of failure in MFIs, namely, methodological flaws in
credit technology, systematic fraud, uncontrolled growth, loss of
focus, design flaws and government intervention. Lessons include: One
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The fact that the poor have turned out to confound prejudice and been extremely good at managing and
basic theory is
that microfinance empowers women by putting capital in their hands
and allowing them to earn an independent income and contribute
these concerns. Does Access to Credit Automatically Leads to Empowerment? The
financially to their households and communities. This economic empowerment is expected to generate
increased self-esteem, respect, and other forms of empowerment for women beneficiaries. Involvement in
Closer
examination shows us, however, that this equation may not always hold
true and that complacency in these assumptions can lead MFIs to
overlook both opportunities to empower women more profoundly
and failures in empowerment. The ability of a woman to transform her
life through access to financial services depends on many factors
successful income-generating activities should translate into greater control and empowerment.
some of them linked to her individual situation and abilities, and others dependent upon her environment
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Control of capital is only one dimension of
Mariana Paredes, Franz Gomez, June 2010, Taking the Good from the Bad in
Microfinance: Lessons Learned from Failed Experiences in Latin America,
Calmeadow Institute,
http://www.calmeadow.com/pdf/failures.pdfhttp://www.microfinancegateway.o
rg/p/site/m/template.rc/1.1.12472/?page1=print, Keerthi, Acc 11/16/13)
Perhaps the most characteristic and most analyzed element when describing an
MFI is its customer service methodology, which incorporates several characteristics
that can differentiate the institution from other MFIs. Aspects of this methodology can
include a particular design for the credit product offered (short terms or graduated loan
offerings for example); a decentralized risk assessment methodology carried out by loan officers who visit
the clients place of business and build the family and businesss cash flow in order to estimate the ability
of the client to pay a loan; and an incentive system for loan officers, which incorporates a bonus for both
solidarity groups out of consideration for clients socio- economic profiles, the institutions risk
management, and operational costs. And beyond solidarity groups, methodologies extend to village
banking as well, and each different lending methodology requires a unique institutional structure. The
degree in Public Policy and Feminist Studies from Stanford University, master's in Education
and a doctorate in Human Development and Psychology from Harvard University, on the board
of the Third Wave Foundation; 10/14/2009; More than Microfinance;
http://www.imow.org/economica/stories/viewStory?storyid=3660)
Political science researcher Matthew Ruben points out that "the
popularity of microfinance
has the potential to distract from other vital antipoverty measures . It
is easy for donors and governments to create and fund credit programs
and ignore other, potentially more serious problems faced by the rural poor.
Microfinance by itself does not solve the need for medical services,
infrastructure, education and land reform"(6). These are needs that poor
women and families cannot be expected to fulfill for themselves; rather, they need
resources from governments, the private sector and civil society
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infrastructure or providing services. Moreover, due to rampant corruption within many governments,
much of the money from these loans is pocketed well before it makes it into the
hands of those who need it most. The loans also come with multiple restrictions
about who gets money and for what, most often leaving women out. Community-based
activists, including women, are routinely excluded from high-level
discussions between finance ministers and loan officers ; plans for use of the
money are frequently top-down, unrealistic and ineffective. Even efforts that begin with the best intentions
affordability of repayments.
degree in Public Policy and Feminist Studies from Stanford University, master's in Education
and a doctorate in Human Development and Psychology from Harvard University, on the board
of the Third Wave Foundation; 10/14/2009; More than Microfinance;
http://www.imow.org/economica/stories/viewStory?storyid=3660)
In economics, people frequently use terms such as "micro" or "macro." Nowadays, "micro" is generally
associated with microcredit or microfinance, two terms that have become synonymous with the popular
practice of giving small loans to people--most often women--to start small businesses and make money for
themselves and their families. "Macro" sometimes hints at large sums of money, but it can also mean the
high-level structural reform of institutions that have deep impacts on the economy, such as banks and
governments.
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prices can go up when it becomes known that women have access to microcredit(2). Moreover, some
microfinance
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Poverty Cards
Micro financing is only good in theory, does not effect
actual poverty and coopts women into the market
(Abhijit Banerjee et al., Esther Duflo Rachel Glennester Cynthia Kinnan ,
The miracle of microfinance? Evidence from a randomized evaluation,
Working Paper 13-09, April 10, 2013, Q)
To frame the analysis, we propose a model where a household may
wish to acquire lumpy investment (a durable good, or an asset for a
business ). One key result of the model is that households who have
access to microcredit may sacrifice short- or even medium-term
consumptionwhen microcredit becomes available in order to get the
durable good, or to invest in a business. Other households may
decide to expand their labor supply. Non-durable consumption may
thus initially fall, and even total consumption may not increase. Of
course, if the household has invested in a profitable business, we
could eventually expect consumption to increase: this underscores
the importance of following households over a long enough period of
time. We examine the effect consumption, new business creation,
business income, etc., as well as measures of other human
development outcomes such as education, health and womens
empowerment. At the first endline, we see no difference in monthly
per capita consumption and monthly non-durable consumption. We do see
significant positive impacts on the purchase of durables. There is evidence that this is financed partly by
an increase in labor supply and partly by cutting unnecessary consumption: households have reduced
expenditures on what that they themselves describe as temptation goods. Thus, in our context,
microfinance plays a role in helping households make different intertemporal choices in consumption. This
is not the only impact that is traditionally expected from microfinance, however. The primary engine of
growth that it is supposed to fuel is business creation. Fifteen to 18 months after gaining access,
control groups but trtreatment and 33% in control). But households in treatment groups had larger loans
and had been borrowing for a longer time period. This second survey thus gives us an opportunity to
examine some of the longer-term impacts of microcredit access on households and businesses. To frame
the analysis, we propose a model where a household may wish to acquire lumpy investment (a durable
good, or an asset for a business ). One key result of the model is that households who have access to
microcredit may sacrifice short- or even medium-term consumption when microcredit becomes available in
order to get the durable good, or to invest in a business. Other households may decide to expand their
labor supply. Non-durable consumption may thus initially fall, and even total consumption may not
increase. Of course, if the household has invested in a profitable business, we could eventually expect
consumption to increase: this underscores the importance of following households over a long enough
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Keerthi Gondi
degree in Public Policy and Feminist Studies from Stanford University, master's in Education
and a doctorate in Human Development and Psychology from Harvard University, on the board
of the Third Wave Foundation; 10/14/2009; More than Microfinance;
http://www.imow.org/economica/stories/viewStory?storyid=3660)
Research shows that women repay their loans in higher rates than men and that while men often spend
loan money on themselves, women are more likely to use their loans to improve their businesses(4).
Women also tend to spend their income on healthcare, education, their families and their children--all
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America are showing signs of success . In the past decade, South America has
been lost to Washington (Chomsky, 2011). However, this is part of a global decline in US dominance (Jorgenson
in Felsenthal, 2011). Yet a perceivable end to US regional hegemony is far from
certain (Nye, 2010). Moreover, potential candidates are already jostling for primacy in the region. Along with Brasilias emerging power,
Chinas economic prowess is already allowing Beijing to challenge American influence all over the world (Rachman, 2011). As Latin
Americans are increasingly looking to China as an economic and political alternative to U.S.
[sic] hegemony, Washington is increasingly viewing the Asian giant as an emerging threat to US interests in Latin America (Hakim, 2006, pp
Hence, neither resurgent US dominance or the the emergence of a new power like China can be ruled out for the continent- the latter partially
due to Venezuelan policy. However, none of this is indicative of a failure of Chavismo to confront the capitalist core. Rather, the Gramscian
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Keerthi Gondi
(Pearson, 2013)
The Bolivarian
Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas (ALBA) is Venezuelas most
ambitious Latin American integration attempt, and its flagship soft
balancing project. Described by Chavez as a socially oriented trade bloc dedicated toward eradicating poverty (Corrales 2009, pp 97-114),
(Wilpert, 2007, p 152). All of these pillars of foreign policy contribute in some way to Venezuelas general deterrence policy.
since 2004 ALBA has grown from a joint Cuban-Venezuelan initiative to include nine countries (Borrero, 2013). While Venezuela has likewise pushed for greater
democratization [sic] of pre-existing institutions such as the UN (Wilpert, 2007, p 153), it has also been cultivating ALBA as an alternative to established international
bodies. More precisely,
initiatives
like the shelved Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by prioritising the states role in development and promoting social welfare over that of
the free market or the corporation (Williams, 2011, pp 262-263). According to Wilpert (2007, p 155), The basic idea of ALBA is modeled [sic] to some extent after the
European Union. Poorer countries would receive development aid from [ALBA's Compensation Fund], while wealthier nations would have to contribute to this fund.
Some of ALBAs initiatives so far have included a development bank with over US$1 billion in capital for humanitarian and social welfare projects, a long standing doctorsand-teachers-for-oil deal between Cuba and Venezuela that has seen Venezuela eradicating illiteracy and providing free healthcare to millions of people, a housing and
education project for Nicaraguas 47,000 street children along with five major agricultural projects that are producing soy beans, rice, poultry, and dairy products
(Hattingh, 2008). Furthermore, social movements within member countries are directly involved in the planning and administration of ALBA through their own
representative council (Hattingh, 2008). ALBA member countries have also actively pushed for an alternative to the World Banks International Center for Settlement of
Investment Disputes (ICSID), due to the the predilection of ICSID to rule in favor [sic] of corporations (Beeton, 2013). ALBA is far from the only Venezuelan soft balancing
initiative. During the Chavez administration, Petrocaribe was established to deliver subsidized [sic] oil from Venezuela to the small states of the Caribbean, and
Venezuela began financing regional news network Telesur, which is designed to offer an alternative to other cable channels like BBC and CNN (Hakim, 2006, 44). Critics
deride many of these initiatives as lacking in transparency, suffering a lack of long term planning and undercutting previous efforts to build more decentralized [sic]
decision-making procedures (Feinberg, 2007). Nonetheless, Venezuelas aid is hard to refuse because it comes with very few conditions (Corrales 2009, pp 97-114).
Moreover, given that the structural adjustment policies of the Bretton Woods institutions have produced an abundance of failures in the developing world, (Schatz, 1994 pp
networks are not necessarily based on material reciprocity. At Venezuelas Dr Salvador Allende Latin American School of Medicine (Escuela Latinoamericana de Medicina
Dr. Salvador Allende) students studying medicine for free have told Venezuelan media that would never have been able to afford such studies otherwise (Mora, 2010). In
2011, a joint Cuban-Venezuelan project saw the opening of the first high school in Western Saharas refugee camps (EFE, 2011). More recently, Venezuela and Cuba
extended Miracle Mission International to the West Bank to provide free eye surgery (the mission provides such free treatment in many other parts of the developing
world), while at the same time the Maduro administration announced what it described as a solidarity oil deal with the Palestinian Authority (Robertson, 2013(3)).
Venezuelan solidarity isnt limited to the developing world though. In the US, Citgo (the US subsidiary of state owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA))
has stated that its US$400 million heating oil program has helped more than 1.7 million Americans, including native communities (Gonzalez, 2013). Furthermore, although
it was rejected by the Bush administration, Venezuela was among the first to offer the US aid in the wake of Hurricane Katrina (Campbell, 2005). Just a few years after the
2002 coup, Venezuelas response to Hurricane Katrina would appear inconsistent if purely viewed as a component of what The Economist (2013) has described as an
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It makes sense for Venezuela to reach out to the United States, but at
least in the short term, Maduro will have a tough time holding back on
strident, anti-American rhetoric . For political survival, he needs
to prove his Chavista bona fides to the base that brought him to the
presidency. Whatever happens abroad, Maduro will be increasingly
consumed by Venezuela's staggering problems at home. Chavez left a country devoid of
institutions. Instead, he bequeathed cronies like Maduro who has so far been able to
his
fend off criticism from his neighbors but is hardly in a position to lead the
kind of broad ideological movement that Chvez was able to cobble
together in his glory days.
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Keerthi Gondi
Venezuelan
government has increasingly pursued a policy of deterrence aimed
at mitigating perceived state security risks posed by the US . Yet the threat
In either case, given historical context, its not at all surprising that in recent years the
isnt reciprocal. A comprehensive examination of the threat posed by Venezuela to the US is beyond the scope of this
collapse of bilateral diplomatic cosiness consisted primarily of opposition to the US invasion of Afghanistan and the
increase in internal opposition to Chavez (Nagel, 2003). These two factors dont seem comparable to Washingtons long
resume of aggression briefly discussed above, hence necessitating the construction of a new, anti-Chavez securitising
the US. Discourse like that of Noriega, who has accused the Venezuelan
government and Hezbollah of collaborating to engage in
asymmetrical warfare against U.S. [sic] security, interests and
allies close to the homeland (Noriega, 2013). Suchlicki (2012) likewise argues that
Venezuelas growing relations with Iran and Chvez support for
terrorist groups both in the Americas and the Middle East should
worry the U.S [sic]. Furthermore, according to Berman (2013) Irans extensive, evolving operations in the
hemisphere could soon pose threats to US allies in the region and to the U.S.[sic] homeland itself. Such
conceptual constructs may be more amicable to US policy, though
discourse in
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Pacific Alliance and other international agreements. Within this context marked
by an imperialist offensive on the one hand, but also by the opening up of new possibilities in the direction of the project
outlined by the ALBA governments, coordination among social movements across the continent is more necessary than
ever. A number of proposals were adopted including the creation of a publishing house,
establishment of a network of ALBA movement media outlets, and continent-wide days of action against the occupation of
the 16th to the 20th of May, at the Florestan Fernandes National School, in the municipality of Guararema,
state of So Paulo, Brazil, we more than 200 delegates representing womens, peasant, urban,
indigenous, student, youth, workers and agro-ecological movements and organisations from 22 countries
made up the First Continental Assembly of Social Movements towards ALBA (The Bolivarian Alliance for the
Peoples of Our Americas). We came here as part of a historic process that has seen us unite in forums,
campaigns, international networks, sectorial organisations and diverse struggles within our countries,
raising the same banners of struggle and sharing the same dreams for real social transformation. We are
living through a new epoch in Our Americas, which over the last few years has expressed itself in diverse
mobilisations and popular rebellions, attempts to overcome neoliberalism and in the construction of an
alternative society which is just and inclusive, something that is now both possible and necessary. The
defeat of the FTAA (Free Trade Agreement of the Americas) in 2005 was evidence of the
existence of social movement resistance and a new continental geopolitical
configuration, characterized by the emergence of popular
governments that have dared to confront the empire . Its most advanced
element in this regard, launched in 2004 by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, is today called the Bolivarian
ALBA is essentially a political, antineoliberal and anti-imperialist project, it is based on the principles
of cooperation, complementarity and solidarity, that seeks to
accumulate popular and institutional forces for a new declaration of
Latin American independence, a movement of peoples and for peoples, for peoples
Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas (ALBA).
integration, for life, justice, peace, sovereignty, identity, equality, for the liberation of Latin America,
through an authentic emancipation that envisions Indo-Afro-American socialism.
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political relations remain fractured at best. The United States and Venezuela
Chvez suspected the United
States of sponsoring a coup to overthrow his regime. Each country
has retaliated against the other through a series of diplomatic
expulsions. Venezuela has also restricted commerce from leaving the country. Capital controls put corporations in a tricky
the large volume of trade,
have each been without ambassadors since 2010, when then-President Hugo
situation, trapping an estimated $8 to $12 billion within the country. Current President Nicolas Maduro has no intentions of lifting these
controls, although Venezuela continues to experience inflation rising over 45 percent per month, threatening to erode profits. As a temporary
measure, corporations have begun reinvesting these profits into Venezuelan real estate. Domestic politics add another dimension to the
problem. Former President Chavez formed the Chavista coalition, which consists of an array of lower and middle class citizens aimed at
empowering workers and the urban poor. The bottom line is that Chavezs governing doctrine, Chavismo, has united unlikely groups into the
Chavista coalition due to favorable economic conditions. However, the erosion of economic stability due to rising inflation over the past year is
beginning to unravel the Chavista coalition, which is the very force that brought Maduro to power. This can be seen in the March 2013 special
presidential elections, in which the opposition lost by a margin of 1.5 percent. Maduros response has been to consolidate power by
expelling U.S.
diplomats while restricting U.S. profits does not bode well for
constructive bilateral relations. The best prospect for improving these relations is for Washington to send a
undermining his political opponents. Venezuela needs foreign firms to operate within the country, but
diplomatic convoy to Venezuela to meet with President Maduro and administration officials and discuss interests in attaining greater domestic
stability to maintain corporate operations. Furthermore, the United States must meet with European counterparts that conduct business
operations in Venezuela in order to establish a joint approach to address the rising political instability. Since Venezuela controls the domestic
climate for U.S. corporations, the U.S. should take the initiative in securing its business interests.
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, Chavismo,
. However, the erosion of economic stability due to rising inflation over the past year is beginning to unravel the Chavista coalition,
. This can be seen in the March 2013 special presidential elections, in which the
Venezuela needs foreign firms to operate within the country, but expelling U.S. diplomats while
restricting U.S. profits does not bode well for constructive bilateral relations. The best prospect for improving these relations is for Washington to send a diplomatic convoy to Venezuela to meet with President
Maduro and administration officials and discuss interests in attaining greater domestic stability to maintain corporate operations. Furthermore, the United States must meet with European counterparts that conduct
business operations in Venezuela in order to establish a joint approach to address the rising political instability. Since Venezuela controls the domestic climate for U.S. corporations, the U.S. should take the initiative
in securing its business interests. The Obama administration can also offer to negotiate the Iran Sanctions Act, which was enacted in 2011 against the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, because of
Venezuelas exports of reformate to Iran. These sanctions currently prohibit Venezuela from competing for U.S. government procurement contracts and receiving financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
Washington should negotiate with Caracas, maintaining the position that if Venezuelan currency controls are completely removed, the portions of the Iran Sanctions Act pertaining to Venezuela could be lifted an
business operations in Venezuela, the likelihood of U.S. companies minimizing their business operations increases. Coupled with desolate diplomatic relations, revamping U
that will take time, cooperation, and concessions from both sides. A key opportunity to
improve relations does exist, but the United States must demonstrate to Maduro the vital role that U.S. companies continue to play for Venezuelas economy. Securing Venezuela as a quasi-ally will not only secure
longer-term U.S. business interests, but also give the U.S additional leverage in Latin America, a region that the Obama administration has neglected.
political event focused on local issues, this month's polls became a face-off to determine which side was
coalition
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Keerthi Gondi
54% of the vote went to the government
- 10 points more than the opposition coalition, which only got 44%.
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imperialism. After decades of aggression against its southern neighbours, Washington is today
viewed by the Venezuelan state as a prime security threat . The threat
however, is not reciprocal despite efforts to securitise Venezuela as a belligerent in US discourse. However, even after
years of modernising its armed forces, the Venezuelan military plays an almost insignificant role in the countrys general
deterrence strategy, and are of a negligible threat to Washington. Instead of relying on military deterrence,
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that she is going to the UN to monitor and make clear what the repression on political and civil institutions
Maduro
mentioned a phone call US Secretary of State John Kerry made to Venezuelan
Foreign Minister Elas Jaua. According to Maduro, the Venezuelan
foreign minister warned the US top diplomat that Venezuela will not
accept any pressures in connection with Caracas' offer to grant
asylum to former CIA agent Edward Snowden, who is charged with leaking classified information
in Venezuela is, and that she will address the lack of democracy in Venezuela."
on espionage programs.
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Keerthi Gondi
Maduro has no
intentions of lifting these controls , although Venezuela continues to experience inflation rising
over 45 percent per month, threatening to erode profits. As a temporary measure, corporations have begun reinvesting
these profits into Venezuelan real estate.
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Venezuela Counternarcotics
Neg
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Topicality
Solvency Answers
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1NC
Venezuelas already improving their counternarcotics
efforts the UN agrees.
Yustiz 13 (Orlando Rangel Yustiz, Venezuelan drug analyst, 4/23/13,
in the
country, as part of the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking, that Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro
has repeatedly said. Until the first quarter of this year, the various
seize more than 13 tons of drugs and destroy more than 20 illegal
drug laboratories, and capture more than 700 people linked to drug
trafficking.
to more than
13 tons, when the deputy director of the National Anti-Drug Office (ONA), Edilberto Molina Molina, reported the seizure of 4,190 kilos of cocaine, a process conducted in the Jesus Maria Semprum municipality in Zulia
state, as part of the operations of the Grand Mission Full Life Venezuela and the National Anti-Drug Plan 2009-2013. In this procedure, performed on March 19, it was able to destroy, with prior approval of the
Venezuela
destroyed
laboratories there were found tons of different chemicals, such as
ammonium sulfate, cement and phosphoric acid and 21,000 liters of
chemicals
the Bolivarian
National Guard
seized
drugs and placed people in
the custody of the MP for drug related offenses
In
, as acetone, gasoline, paint thinners, ammonia, hydrochloric acid, sulfuric acid, and other materials used to process the drug.
(GNB) until March 22, had
Only
532
Venezuelan authorities had succeeded, the first two months of this year, in seizing 9 tons of different drugs. On 24 February, the then Minister for Interior and Justice, Nestor Reverol, reported the seizure of 5,094
kilograms of marijuana, by troops of GNB Border Detachment N 11, specifically the checkpoint known as The Trailer, located in the town of Urea, in Tachira state. The more than five tons of marijuana were
hidden in a false bottom of a fuel tanker truck, which came to Venezuela from Colombia. In the act, a person was arrested and placed in the custody of the Public Ministry. These five tons are added to the other
four which were seized until the first half of February, time by which, 577 safety procedures had been made and 714 people involved in drug trafficking were arrested: 25 foreigners and 689 Venezuelans. Another
important procedure which is worth highlighting is that of Feb. 8, in Apure State, where more than 1 ton of cocaine was seized, and also on February 14 in the state of Lara, nearly half a ton of marijuana was seized
plane
command
narcotics earth-to-air grid system was
created to detect illegal and unauthorized flights in Venezuela.
the procedure was done by troops
who found 433 kilos of marijuana
too. These more than 1,000 kilos of cocaine were found in a small plane flying over the Apure state and traveling without permission, with false registration. The
of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces, through the
. This
Furthermore,
in Lara
4,
the
from Detachment 47 of the Bolivarian National Guard (GNB), belonging to the Regional Command No.
hidden in a 350 truck, in a routine procedure made at the point of control that this military component
has in the town of Tintorero, located in Lara state. The drugs were hidden in a false bottom of the vehicle, carrying fruit pulp. Sovereign fight Since 2006, after Venezuela suspended in 2005 the agreements
with DEA agency, the Government sovereign policies on drugs have allowed the seizure of 247.27 tons of cocaine, and in the 14-year Bolivarian rule, 671.86 tons of different drugs have been seized. Another
important achievement in the fight against drugs in Venezuela since 2006, has been the capture of 95 drug lords, 20 of them captured in 2012, including Daniel Barrera, known as "El loco Barrera", one of the drug
lords most sought of the world.
groups continue to find safe haven in Venezuela and receive support from Venezuela, the permissive atmosphere and lack
However, as
Venezuelan officials have repeatedly stated, Venezuela is caught
of cooperation will likely adversely affect the security gains made in Colombia since 2000.
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Keerthi Gondi
The large international cocaine syndicates of yesteryear, such as the Medellin and Cali cartels, have been
basically destroyed. Today, the operations are mostly fragmented into a looser association of smaller, more
specialized trafficking groups which rarely number over 20. The traffickers, according to General
Serrano, Colombias national police chief, are not the flashy criminals with Rolex watches and gold chains
of iron dust and charcoal that fools both the sniffer dogs and chemical detection tests.16 Besides more
are becoming a main source of heroin for Eastern United States. Reportedly, many drug abusers prefer
Colombian heroin since it is especially pure, and can be snorted or smoked rather than injected.
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Bank, which admitted in March 2010 its participation in the laundering of U.S. $ 420 billion coming from Mexican drug trafficking groups.
For all of these reasons, the Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela considers
inadmissible that the U.S. government politically employ the issue of
the use and trafficking of illegal drugs to attack a democratic
government with an impeccable record in the fight against this
scourge, created by the U.S.s consumerist and capitalist way of life. It is also inadmissible that the U.S. government question the
policies that the sovereign Venezuelan state has implemented in this regard, those of which have presented a positive balance this year,
including the seizure of 46 tons of various drugs, the arrest of more than 7,000 people, and an effective legal persecution of these crimes that
exceeds international standards.
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2NC Say No
Say No 1. Venezuela has refused US efforts to cooperate over
drugs In the past.
DOS 10 (International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March, Bureau
for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs,
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/137411.pdf)//DLG
Venezuela has failed demonstrably to make sufficient efforts to meet
its obligations under international counternarcotics measures set
forth in Section 489(a) (1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as
amended. This Determination takes into account actions taken by the Government of Venezuela
during the past 12 months. Venezuela has ignored, or refused, the majority of
United States Government offers to work towards greater
cooperation on counternarcotics. An official letter from the U.S. Ambassador
on July 15, 2008, and a follow-up diplomatic note of March 11, 2009, requesting
facilitation of a meeting to discuss counternarcotics were not answered.
On May 13, 2009, Venezuelas National Anti-Drug Office (ONA) Director declined
to meet with the U.S. Charge dAffaires, informing the U.S. Embassy that the meeting would
require authorization from the Venezuelan President or the Foreign Minister. Venezuelas
importance as a transshipment point for drugs bound for the United States and
Europe continues to increase. Corruption within the Venezuelan
Government and a weak and politicized judicial system contribute to the
ease with which illicit drugs transit Venezuela. Trafficking through Venezuela
increased from an estimated 50 metric tons of cocaine in 2004 to an estimated 300 metric tons in 2008.
The ONA periodically reports seizures of illicit drugs, but the Venezuelan Government does not share the
necessary data or evidence needed to verify seizures or the destruction of illicit drugs. The U.S. Coast
Guard generally has received permission from the Government of Venezuela to board suspect Venezuelan
In 2005, the GOV stated that a renewal of bilateral counternarcotics cooperation depended on both parties
signing an addendum to the 1978 U.S.-GOV Bilateral Counternarcotics Memorandum of Understanding.
While the United States did not agree that the addendum was essential to ensuring appropriate
counternarcotics cooperation, the United States reached agreement with GOV officials on a mutually
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Keerthi Gondi
However,
bilateral relations over the past few years. Given the GOVs refusal
to expand cooperation, the President determined in 2009, as in 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2005,
that Venezuela failed demonstrably to adhere to its obligations under
international counternarcotics agreements.
that she is going to the UN to monitor and make clear what the repression on political and civil institutions
Maduro
mentioned a phone call US Secretary of State John Kerry made to Venezuelan
Foreign Minister Elas Jaua. According to Maduro, the Venezuelan
foreign minister warned the US top diplomat that Venezuela will not
accept any pressures in connection with Caracas' offer to grant
asylum to former CIA agent Edward Snowden, who is charged with leaking classified information
in Venezuela is, and that she will address the lack of democracy in Venezuela."
on espionage programs.
road."
Talks have been short on substance and never left U.S. officials with the feeling Venezuela was interested in
Maduro's first news conference, a good portion of which was devoted to railing
against the United States, was not very encouraging. As he prepares to stand in upcoming elections
to replace Chavez, Maduro's anti-American rhetoric is dismissed in the
mending fences.
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Keerthi Gondi
it is unlikely his
death will dramatically affect ties in the near term . If, as expected, Maduro wins
the presidency, the new boss will likely be the same as the old one.
"Chavez's supporters and their Chavismo ideological movement were dealt a blow with the death of their
charismatic leader, but his ministers have been preparing for this transition, and the
challenge to all sides will be measured in weeks and months, not days" said
and charters. While Venezuela's relationship with the United States revolved around Chavez,
Dan Restrepo, who served as an adviser to Obama at the National Security Council during his first term. With crime at an
doesn't want to be in a situation where it is viewed at all as getting involved in domestic affairs of Venezuela," he says. "If
Maduro wins, he will be trying to keep the focus on domestic issues, and
that could put the resolve of Chavismo to the test. And that could
mean the hardest days between the U.S. and Venezuela is not
behind us, but ahead of us ."
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O'Grady is an editor of the Wall Street Journal and member of the Wall
Street Journal Editorial Board since 2005, (Why Venezuela Offers Asylum to
Snowden, July 7, 2013,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732439940457859050385674
0838.html)//sawyer
His offer of refuge to Mr. Snowden is most easily explained as an attempt to
distract Venezuelans from the increasingly difficult daily economic
grind and get them to rally around the flag by putting a thumb in
Uncle Sam's eye. Yet there is something else.Venezuela has reason to fear
increasing irrelevance as North America becomes more energy independent.
This makes Iran crucial. Mr. Maduro may be trying to establish himself as a
leader as committed to the anti-American cause as was his predecessor,
Hugo Chavez, who had a strong personal bond with former Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He also needs to establish his own place in South
American politics.Reaching out to Mr. Snowden is a way to send a
message to the world that notwithstanding Secretary of State John
Kerry's feeble attempt at rapprochement with Caracas last month,
post-Chavez Venezuela has no intention of changing the course of the
Bolivarian revolution. Rather, as the economy of the once-wealthy oil nation
deteriorates, Mr. Maduro is signaling that Venezuela wants to become an
even more loyal geopolitical ally and strategic partner of Russia and Iran.
A2 Drugs Advantage
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Andres 2008 (Amado Philip de Andres, UN Office on Drugs and Crime Deputy Regional
Representative for West and Central Africa. Formerly, Legal Advisor at the Office of the Director, January,
UNISCI Discussion Papers, WEST AFRICA UNDER ATTACK: DRUGS, ORGANIZED CRIME AND TERRORISM AS
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Keerthi Gondi
of the fifteen members of ECOWAS2 are among the last 30 bottom-listed countries in the UNDP Human
facilitate the establishing and development of local and transnational criminal networks, and promote the
rooting of a cultural model under which money can buy everything including impunity, political power,
social consideration and respectability.
Terrorism is not new to North and West Africa. The region as a whole has
been affected by a range of ethno-nationalist and religious conflicts , a
number of which have been accompanied by highly destructive campaigns of terrorism. The civilian carnage wrought by
the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) in Algeria is one of the more graphic
examples, although more limited campaigns have also been associated with the Christian/Muslim communal
conflict in Nigeria, Tuareg insurgent violence in Mali, and the Casamance struggle in Senegal. While much of the terrorist
violence in the region revolves around specific catalytic events (such as the annulment of the Islamic Salvation Fronts
electoral victory in Algeria in 1992 and the institution of Shariah law in Nigerias northern states in 2000), institutional
weakness, 220 World Central, Eastern Europe & CIS Latin America & Caribbean East Asia and the Pacific Arab States
All developing countries South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa West Africa OECD US$ in PPP UNISCI Discussion Papers, No
16 (Enero / January 2008) ISSN 1696-2206 a
utocratic governance and economic marginality have all provided an
These various
manifestations of terrorist violence have had a notable impact on
stability throughout the sub-region. At the national level, it has played a
prominent role in polarizing sub-national ethnic and religious
identity, leading to highly divisive societies that have been unable to forge institutional
environmental context that is highly conducive to political violence and extremism.
structures for peaceful communal coexistence. Nigeria provides a graphic case in point, suffering over the last decade
from an increasingly serious Christian- Muslim gulf borne of what is rapidly becoming an entrenched culture of extremist
sectarian mobilization and violence38. Equally as indicative is Algeria, where viscous campaigns waged by the GIA, the
Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) and associated splinter groups over the last two decades have torn and,
terrorism
has discouraged foreign investment and tourism as well as
arguably destroyed, much of the underlying social fabric holding the country together39. Economically,
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1nc FARC
FARC is weak and have no influence squo solves
Felbab-Brown 12 - senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century
Security and Intelligence in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings(Vanda,
FIGHTING THE NEXUS OF ORGANIZED CRIME AND VIOLENT CONFLICT WHILE
ENHANCING HUMAN SECURITY, Apr 19, 2012,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/4/19%20drugs
%20instability%20felbabbrown/0419_drugs_instability_felbabbrown.pdf)
Colombia today provides a clear example. Without doubt, the legitimacy of the leftist guerrilla
group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
[FARC])
the FARC due to its progressive penetration of the drug trade, the leadership
decided to eliminate many traffickers from the territories it
controlled and take over their trafficking roles in those territories.9
By doing so, the group inadvertently eliminated a key source of its
political capital. Instead of bargaining on behalf of the cocaleros (coca farmers) for better prices
in strength of
for coca paste and mitigating and regulating other forms of the traffickers abuse against the cocaleros as
it used to do in the 1980s and early 1990s when independent traffickers were present,10 the FARC put
itself in the position of the brutal monopolist that sets prices, limits the customers to whom the
population can sell coca paste and base, and inflicts abuse on the rural population.11
neither the FARC nor the other leftist guerrilla group, the Ejrcito
have sought to conduct a
terrorist campaign against U.S. citizens and major U.S. assets or attack the U.S.
homeland. Allegations of al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah contacts with
the FARC or these groups penetration of the Latin American drug
trade have not proven to be a serious menace.26
joyful moment. But overall,
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1nc EU
New EU-US free trade agreement already solving EU
economic growth.
Straus 13 (Ira, U.S. Coordinator, Committee on Eastern Europe and Russia in NATO; and Fulbright
Professor of International Relations in Moscow, 7/31/13, TTIP: Not Like Any Other Regional Free Trade
Agreement, http://www.atlantic-community.org/-/ttip-not-like-any-other-regional-free-trade-agreement,
Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi, acronyms: OECD- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
NAFTA- North American Free Trade Agreement, ANZ-Australia-New Zealand FTA, OSCE- Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, WTO- World Trade Organization, GATT- General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade)
TTIP offers more geopolitical hopes -- for stabilizing the world order
and gradually, peacefully assimilating China and others into it -- than dangers. We should try to
consummate an agreement rapidly, (a) before new economic crises
can bring another global economic downturn that could sink both intra-EU and
trans-Atlantic ties in the gloom and nationalism; and (b) while Obama is in
office, as he will have greater ease than a Republican in getting it
ratified over the objections to trade and to Atlanticism from much of his base. Speed
being of the essence, it is less important for the agreement to be complete than for it to leave space for further
development. There can always be another round, as in WTO. Harmonization is being discussed of
TTIP with other trade spaces. This should focus first on the rest of the extended
Atlantic or OECD space, through harmonization with the co-emerging TransPacific Partnership (TPP) and NAFTA . Since the US and EU already have
special trade and security arrangements with Japan, S. Korea, ANZ, Canada, and other
countries in the Asia-Pacific region, this is both necessary and readily feasible. With time, TTIP
and TPP should be linked or merged into a globe-spanning economic space, serviced institutionally by OECD and G7-8. Subsequent
remain one of the ever-present two tiers of the international trading system, the other being WTO; akin to stalactites and stalagmites which
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1nc Colombia
Alt cause of enforcement and - Turn US intervention in
Colombian counternarcotics proliferates the drug trade.
DeShazo et al. 09 (Peter DeShazo, the Executive Director of LASPAU.
Before joining LASPAU, he was the director of the Americas Program at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, AB from Dartmouth College
and a PhD in Latin American history from the University of Wisconsin at
Madison, Joanna Mendelson Forman, Phillip McLean, Countering Threats to
Security and Stability in a Failing State Lessons from Colombia
http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/Lessons_from_Colombia.pdf, Keerthi, Acc
10/22/13)
From the rise of the Medellin cartel in the late 1970s until the advent
of Plan Colombia in 1999, narcotics constituted the overwhelmingly
dominant factor in the United States relationship with Colombia.
U.S. policy emerged from the international war on drugs first declared by
President Richard Nixon in 1973 and carried on by subsequent administrations. Increased attention was paid to the
Andean region in general and Colombia specifically as that country became the center- piece of world cocaine trafficking
and then production and as domestic consumption of cocaine powder and crack cocaine surged in the United States.
even though
narcotics played a central role in Colombias downward spiral, the
underlying factor was the weak sovereign presence of the Colombian
government and its inability to enforce the rule of law. In response, the United
clear to an increas- ing number of key policymakers within the executive branch that
States worked with President Andrs Pastrana to design Plan Co- lombia and to prepare an assistance package to support
it. However, although the Plan Colombia document released by Pastrana in 1999 contained 10 points, only one of which
dealt specifically with narcotics, U.S. legislation providing emergency supplemental support to Colombia was overwhelmingly focused on counter-drug efforts. Despite a subsequent reorientation of U.S. assistance toward support for
broader security initiatives in Colombia, including counterinsurgency, Plan Colombia in the eyes of the U.S. public was
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would likewise reduce the benefits. The TTIP is being divided into 15 specific working groups. While the negotiations are new, the issues
separating the two sides are long-standing and widely known. One of the most difficult is the EU's limitation of imports of genetically modified
foods, which presents a major problem for U.S. agriculture. Another is financial regulation, with U.S. banks preferring EU rules to the more
stringent framework emerging at home (such as the much higher capital standards for large banks recently proposed by America's financial
regulators). Several other serious disagreements also stand in the way of a comprehensive deal. For example, U.S. pharmaceutical
companies have stronger intellectual-property protection at home than in the EU. Entertainment will become increasingly contentious with
online distribution of films. And the anachronistic 1920 Jones Act requires cargo carried between U.S. ports to be shipped only on American
ships (recall the confusion about the possibility of foreign ships coming to help during the BP Gulf oil spill). Safety regulations and restrictions
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harmonized.
TTIP offers more geopolitical hopes -- for stabilizing the world order
and gradually, peacefully assimilating China and others into it -- than dangers. We should try to
consummate an agreement rapidly, (a) before new economic crises
can bring another global economic downturn that could sink both intra-EU and
trans-Atlantic ties in the gloom and nationalism; and (b) while Obama is in
office, as he will have greater ease than a Republican in getting it
ratified over the objections to trade and to Atlanticism from much of his base. Speed
being of the essence, it is less important for the agreement to be complete than for it to leave space for further
development. There can always be another round, as in WTO. Harmonization is being discussed of
TTIP with other trade spaces. This should focus first on the rest of the extended
Atlantic or OECD space, through harmonization with the co-emerging TransPacific Partnership (TPP) and NAFTA . Since the US and EU already have
special trade and security arrangements with Japan, S. Korea, ANZ, Canada, and other
countries in the Asia-Pacific region, this is both necessary and readily feasible. With time, TTIP
and TPP should be linked or merged into a globe-spanning economic space, serviced institutionally by OECD and G7-8. Subsequent
remain one of the ever-present two tiers of the international trading system, the other being WTO; akin to stalactites and stalagmites which
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Shutting Out the BRICs? Why the EU Focuses on a Transatlantic Free Trade
Area, http://www.ged-project.de/viz/articles/shutting-out-the-brics-why-theeu-focuses-on-a-transatlantic-free-trade-area/, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
In March 2013, the E uropean U nion and the U nited S tates of America launched negotiations on a
transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP). The free trade agreement between the two would be the largest trade deal in
history. It should provide the EU with a boost of 0.5% in GDP growth. At the same time, the US is pursuing a free trade agreement in the
Pacific. This Trans-Pacific Partnership would include the US, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru,
Singapore and Vietnam. From both these agreements,
countries that have been such an important part of the global economic narrative for more than ten years now
BRICs? The Bertelsmann Foundations Global Economic Dynamics Visualizer tool (GED Viz) offers a way of viewing trade flows year-onyear between different countries and blocs. Slides 1 and 2 show that the EUs trade relationship with the BRIC countries is increasing in
importance for Europe. The total value of exports from the EU to the powerhouse economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China rose from $80.6
billion in 2001 to $432.57 billion in 2011. [1] When the figures are viewed as a percentage of total EU trade, the growing weight of the
relationship becomes even more clear. EU exports to the BRIC countries formed 14% of total EU exports in 2001. In 2011, exports to the BRICs
even
as the value of EU exports to the US grows, the share of total EU
exports sent to the US declines. Slides 3 and 4 show that in 2001, EU exports to the US were worth $233.8
billion, and by 2011, exports totalled $374.6 billion. But the percentage of total EU exports sent
to the US dropped from 40.6% in 2001 to 25.8% in 2011 an average drop in share of 1.5% a year, precisely
made up 29.7% of all goods exported from the EU-27 an average increase in share of EU exports of 1.5% a year. Meanwhile,
Even
bolstering the already close integration between the trade regimes of the two sides. Part of the reason lies in the other side of the EUs trade
that EU imports from the BRIC countries were worth $157.94 billion in 2001, and by 2011, they amounted to $812.44 billion. In 2001, imports
from the BRICs represented 25.1% of the EUs total imports; by 2011, the BRICs were responsible for 47.3% of the EU-27s imports, an average
growth in share of 2.2% a year. Throughout the period, the EUs trade deficit has held steady imports from the BRIC countries continue to
increase alongside exports. The EU has long had serious concerns about the trade deficit with China in particular, blaming Chinese currency
imports from China were $445.2 billion. The EU-27 exported $46.32 billion worth of goods to Brazil and imported goods with a value of $55.36
billion. Exports to India were worth $53.23 billion and imports totalled $58.89 billion. And exports to Russia amounted to $123.05 billion, with
imports more than double that, at $252.99 billion. So, the EU is turning to its trade relationship with the US to increase its competitiveness. In
this relationship, trade flows are only part of the story:
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far greater than either partys investment in the BRIC countries.[2] With
companies from either side active in both jurisdictions, strengthened links could promote investment and improve job growth both in the US
opportunity for the developed economies, in that new markets will be available to their industries. But with intra-BRIC trade on the rise,
companies from these emerging markets are often better prepared to sell at low cost to consumers with limited incomes. At the same time,
TTIP negotiations
will focus on the key issues that include market access and
regulatory rules, non-tariff barriers, and market rules. Agreements
between the US and Europe on technical standards will have a
significant impact on the world economy, as they will in effect
mirrors the US strategy of returning to Asia. In addition to reducing tariffs,
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The
result will be increased pressure on China, and China will once again
face remodeled western rivals. The challenge for Chinas strategic
wisdom will be whether it seeks to resolve the issue through focus
on the EU, on FTA, or on its economic relationships with the BRICS.
the narrow economic gap between the US and Europe, TTIP will be easier to achieve than TPP.
also wanted Mexico to agree on negotiating labor and environmental provisions which are not in NAFTA. The announcement now puts
pressure on Canada to make agricultural trade concessions in order not to be left out. So far, Canada has resisted putting its supply-managed
dairy and livestock sectors on the table.
in last week's leaked negotiation text broadened key definitions that would allow more companies to
challenge a wider spectrum of rules. The text also would make rules surrounding government contracting
-- a $1 trillion market in the U.S. -- eligible for corporate challenges before international tribunals.
Although Mexico does not have trade agreements with several of the countries involved in the Trans-Pacific
talks, it does have deals with Peru, Chile and the U.S., all of which are involved. NAFTA already allows for
trade without tariffs between the U.S. and Mexico, creating concern among public interest groups that the
Trans-Pacific deal will establish broader deregulation.
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Inherency
Contention 1 is Inherency:
US-Mexico student exchanges are devastatingly low- we are
losing competitive students to other nations.
Wood 13 (Duncan, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars, professor and the director of the International
Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mxico, Educational
cooperation and exchanges: An emerging issue,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Wood_Edu_US_Mex.pdf, Accessed
8/5/13, Keerthi)
The challenge facing Mexico-U.S. educational exchanges
Around the world university education is becoming more international in
nature. In the West, universities have come to see foreign students as an
important source of income, essentially subsidizing national students in
their studies. The United States has followed this trend, with international students
rising in number from 547,867 in 2000-01 to 764,495 in 2011-2012. These international students contributed $22.7
billion to the U.S. economy in 2012. 2 Compared
When
examining the International student numbers for the United States in greater
detail, one observes that the figures for Mexican students are even more
level the U.S. began to be perceived as a slightly less welcoming place for international students.
disappointing , showing only marginal growth over the past decade and
actually falling since 2007/08. The low number of less than 14,000 Mexican
students enrolled in U.S. universities and colleges in 2012 is all the more stunning
when considering the fact that the two countries share a border, their
economies are ever more integrated, there is a huge population of
Mexican origin in the U.S. and that Spanish has become the countrys
unofficial second language . Mexico ranks ninth (9th) among countries that
send students to the United States for undergraduate education and tenth (10th) for
graduate education, far below Turkey, Iran, and other smaller and more distant
countries. The number of Mexicans studying in the United States today is surpassed by students from China,
India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam. The number of Chinese students going to the
United States rose by 23.1% between 2010 and 2011; the number of Saudi students by more than 50%; but the
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STEM
The only advantage is STEM education this is a long
advantage Uniqueness- The United States is falling behind in STEM.
Kluger 2013 (Jeffrey, senior editor at TIMES, Sept. 20,
http://nation.time.com/2013/09/20/what-u-s-needs-to-be-the-leader-in-stem-again/,
Keerthi, Accessed 9/20/13)
Theres nothing like being successful in the past to make you feel like a
loser today. Take Americaparticularly Americas science, technology, engineering and
math (STEM) sector. The big wins of the 20th century were pretty much all ours:
First man on the moon? Check. Polio vaccine? Check. Hubble Space Telescope? Check.
Creation of the Internet? Check. Towering r esearch institutions like MIT, Caltech and Berkeley? Check,
check and check. But the U.S. is in no position to boast these days . Consider these
numbers from this mornings TIME Education Summit panel on Basic and Applied Research. Last years entire operating
budget for the National Science Foundation was $7.4 billionor only $400 million more than Americans spent on
potato chips in the same period. Last year too, 20% of undergrads in China were studying in the
STEM fields. In Europe it was 11%. In the U.S. it was 4.4%. In 2008, I was working on a
paper about a newly discovered superconducting material, said Robert Birgeneau, chancellor emeritus and professor of physics at the University of
California, Berkeley, Wen I looked at my citations I realized that 80% of the papers I mentioned were from universities in China.
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*Education systems are sufficient on both sides for success after exchanges
for students who will stay for life, meaning they emphasize
acculturation and language-acquisition. For transnational students, this may mean
having to lose part of their other culture, only to return amidst it later in life. While it may be
difficult to assess whether a student is a settler or a sojourner (for more information, see Ziga & Hamann,
and academic well-being. 54 Implications for Global Education All across the world, students are consistently
2002). According to Sssmuth (2007), globalization will require a need for a variety of intercultural skills, including
cognitive, digital, emotional, and social skills. While the transnational students in this study are perfectly poised to
international policy level, the United States and Mexico should discuss how best to align their education systems so
transnational students moving between them would not lose topics, sequencing, course offerings, or skills. Since the
All students could benefit from building intercultural skills, and transnational and immigrant students could be the
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States. Unfortunately, the amount of stigmatization and currently held beliefs from populations on both sides of
the border will be difficult to change. Regardless, global education reform based on student success and
achievement should be less motivated by who is doing what? and who is doing it better? and, instead, should
focus on how students are acquiring the skills necessary to thrive in an
attempt to navigate away from the quantitative realm and bring the voices of the players, those truly affected by
globalization, into the arena. These transnational students are possibly the most affected by the global education
reform movement and their experiences show stark differences between two countries that share the tenth longest
border in the world (Central Intelligence Agency, 2009). This study shows that the experiences of transnational
students are just as valuable as a research tool for global studies, their voices having given us a glimpse into their
lives, struggles, and successes in education between two different countries. Are these students ready to face the
future? Possibly. Have their educations prepared them for a high quality life? Uncertain.
to move from a middle income to high income country. Indeed, the Pea Nieto government's first major legislative
effort has been a constitutional reform of the K-12 system to improve the quality of education. Ho wever,
a
second area that requires major attention is undergraduate and graduate
education, especially in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering
and mathematics) and innovation. At the same time, the United States needs to
develop the cultural and linguistic capacities that would allow Americans in
professions ranging from nursing to teaching to business to better communicate with the
growing Spanish-language population in the United States and to take
advantage of commercial and investment opportunities in the Western Hemisphere.
There exists, therefore, a powerful logic for the two governments to work
together to seek mutually beneficial solutions to their educational needs.
One excellent way of doing so would be to encourage higher levels of university-level exchanges between them.
Unemployment in the U.S. is at its highest since the mid-80s, college graduates are struggling to find jobs in
their respective fields, and the so-called American Dream is slipping farther out of reach. Yet, there are 3.2 million
available jobs in this country in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) fields. Right now.
Today. This moment. Moreover, according to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 63% of those with only associates
degrees in STEM earn more than those with bachelors degrees in non-STEM occupations. In addition, 47% of those with bachelors degrees in STEM
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them . With these facts as a backdrop, you would think that every kid in America would be scrambling to take a STEM major. Wrong. One study
showed that nearly half of high school students surveyed say they will most likely not pursue a STEM-related degree. Whom then can
we get to qualify for these high-paying, readily available, yet evidently not
very popular jobs? Answer: Hispanics. Over the last several decades, it has primarily been
Hispanic immigrants, legal and illegal, whove done Americas dirty work. Janitors, construction
labor, factory workers, meatpacking, housecleaning, cooks, chefs, you name it, Hispanics have done these jobs with drive and aplomb, and nary a
move en masse from low-paying but steady work as Americas default blue collar labor force to the leaders of the STEM education revolution that must
minority group in America. Now consider these numbers. Non-Hispanic growth rate in the past decade? 5%. Hispanic growth rate? 43%. Average Hispanic
age in 2009? 27.4 years. Nearly 10 years younger than the population overall. One in three Hispanics in the U.S. are under 18, most of them U.S.-born and
learning English in public schools. The stats go on, and all point to one question: how do we bridge the gap between this countrys young, fast-multiplying,
yet woefully undereducated Hispanic cohort and this nations ever-expanding demand for STEM-educated labor?
International Center for Scholars, professor and the director of the International
Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mxico, Educational
cooperation and exchanges: An emerging issue,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Wood_Edu_US_Mex.pdf, Accessed
8/5/13, Keerthi)
The potential for expanding student exchange and international mobility
programs between the United States and Mexico is considerable. By encouraging more students
to spend time in the higher educational institutions of the other country, and by developing the funding programs needed to finance
such an effort, governments, educational authorities and businesses will be contributing to the
creation of a new generation of bilingual, bicultural young professionals
who will be prepared to work in either economy. Particularly in the area of
the sciences and engineering, Mexican students will benefit from high
quality programs and relatively abundant resources. This coincides with a
period in which more Hispanic students in the United States are choosing to
study these degrees. For U.S. students, the benefits of both stronger Spanish language skills on the one hand, and a
greater sensitivity to and understanding of Mexican professional culture on the other, would be considerable, both in the domestic
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promoting a science culture and citizen participation. Latin America has been no
stranger to the trend towards democratization of knowledge. Many surveys of the public
perception of science have been conducted in recent years, as a result of the creation of a network
within which academics and officials of national S&T organizations in Latin American countries have
been working together to build a consensus on methodology (Box 2).
Imagine for a moment that the globe is inhabited by a single individual who roams free across outback plains,
through rainforests, across pure white beaches living off the resources available. Picture the immensity of the
world surrounding this one person and ask yourself, what possible impact could this single person have on the
planet? Now turn your attention to todays reality. Almost 7 billion people inhabit the planet and this number
increases at an average of a little over one per cent per year. Thats about 2 more mouths to feed every second. Do
these 7 billion people have an impact on the planet? Yes. An irreversible impact? Probably. Taken together this huge
number of people has managed to change the face of the Earth and threaten the very systems that support them .
A single person could not have caused all of this, nor can a single person
solve all the associated problems. The message here is that the human-induced
global problems that confront us cannot be solved by any one individual, group,
agency or nation. It will take a large collective effort to change the course that we are on;
nothing less will suffice. Our planet is facing several mammoth challenges: to its atmosphere, to its
resources, to its inhabitants. Wicked problems such as climate change, over-population,
disease, and food, water and energy security require concerted efforts and
worldwide collaboration to find and implement effective, ethical and sustainable solutions. These are
no longer solely scientific and technical matters. Solutions must be viable in the larger
context of the global economy, global unrest and global inequality. Common
true.
understandings and commitment to action are required between individuals, within communities and across
international networks. Science can play a special role in international relations. Its participants share a common
language that transcends mother tongue and borders. For centuries scientists have corresponded and collaborated
on international scales in order to arrive at a better and common understanding of the natural and human
world.
These links can lead to coalitionbuilding, trust and cooperation on sensitive scientific issues which, when
supported at a political level, can provide a soft politics route to other
policy dialogues. That is, if nations are already working together on global
science issues, they may be more likely to be open to collaboration on
other global issues such as trade and security. Many countries have recognised the value of
international links are already in place at a scientific level.
science diplomacy.
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Scenario _ is Competitiveness:
STEM jobs are key to US competitiveness- filling the job gap is
key.
NMS 2011(National Math and Science Initiative, mission to improve student
Math and computer science majors earn $98,000 in salary, while early childhood education majors get paid about $36,000.3 According to the Commerce
Department, people in STEM fields can expect to earn 26 percent more money on average and be less likely to experience job loss. The STEM degree
holders also tend to enjoy higher earnings overall, regardless of whether they work in STEM or non-STEM occupations. 4
Worldwide, the United States ranks 17th in the number of science degrees it awards. 6 The
United States is fast losing its competitive edge. The competitive edge of
the US economy has eroded sharply over the last decade, according to a new study by a non-partisan research
group. The report found that the U.S. ranked sixth among 40 countries and regions, based on 16 indicators of
innovation and competitiveness. They included venture capital investment, scientific research, spending on research, and educational achievement.7
The prestigious World Economic Forum ranks the U.S. as No. 48 in quality of math and science
education. 8 American students arent keeping up with students in other
countries in math and science. International results released in 2010 showed once again that U.S.
students rank well below many foreign competitors in the crucial areas of math and science. The
rankings from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed American
students scored 17th in science achievement and 25th in math ability out of 65 countries. According to
the 2009 National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP), the Nations Report Card, only one percent of U.S. fourth grade and 12th grade students and
two percent of eighth grade students scored in the highest level of proficiency in science. In fact, the NAEP science results showed students performance
worsened the longer they were in school, with 72 percent of the fourth graders, 63 percent of the eight graders, and just 60 percent of the 12th graders
the
The decline in STEM knowledge
scoring at or above the basic level. In an analysis comparing the NAEP math scores of advanced 8th graders with their counterparts overseas,
only countries that the U.S. ranked ahead of were Portugal, Greece, Turkey and Mexico.9
capital is reducing the basic scientific research that leads to growth. The
U.S. is no longer the Colossus of Science, dominating the research
landscape in the production of scientific papers, that it was 30 years ago. In 1981, U.S. scientists fielded nearly 40 percent of research papers in
the most influential journals. By 2009, that figure had shrunk to 29 percent. During the same period, European nations
increased their share of research papers from 33 percent to 36 percent, while research contributed
by nations in the Asia-Pacific region increased from 13 percent to 31 percent. China is now the
second-largest producer of scientific papers, after the U.S. with nearly 11 percent of the worlds total.10 American
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Organization (UNESCO), almost 83 percent of research and development was carried out in developed countries in 2002, but dropped to 76 percent by
2007. China was leading the pack of emerging nations with 1.4 million researchers. By 2009, for the first time, over half of U.S. patents were awarded to
non-U.S. companies.11
science. Russia is building an innovation city outside of Moscow. Saudi Arabia has a
new university for science and engineering with a $10 billion endowment. China is creating new
technology universities by the dozens and has replaced the U.S. as the worlds top high technology exporter.
Singapore has invested more than a billion dollars to make that country a medical science hub and
attract the worlds best talent. These nations and many others have rightly concluded that the way to win in the world economy is by doing a better job of
educating and innovating.12
U.S. students
fall behind 31 countries in math proficiency, according to a 2011 Harvard study that concluded the U.S. could increase GDP growth per capita by enhancing
its students math skills. Over an 80-year period, economic gains from increasing the percentage of math proficient students to Canadian or Korean levels
would increase the annual U.S. growth rate by 0.9 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, respectively. That increase could yield $75 trillion.13
order . It was the economic devastation of Britain and France during World War II, as well as the rise of other powers, that led both countries to
relinquish their empires. In the late 1960s, British leaders concluded that they lacked the economic capacity to maintain a presence east of Suez. Soviet
economic weakness, which crystallized under Gorbachev, contributed to their decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan, abandon Communist regimes in
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China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies are
growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power .
These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world . If U.S.
policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a
question of whether but when a new international order will emerge . The
closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify
geopolitical competition among major powers , increase incentives for local
powers to play major powers against one another, and undercut our will to
preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of
escalation. The stakes are high . In modern history, the longest period of
peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership . By contrast,
multi-polar systems have been unstable , with their competitive dynamics
resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers .
Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars .
American retrenchment could have devastating consequences . Without an
American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to
balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there would be a
heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crises
spiraling into all-out conflict . Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their
hostile states would be emboldened to make
aggressive moves in their regions. As rival powers rise, Asia in particular is likely
to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. Beijings economic rise has enabled a dramatic military
geopolitical posture away from the United States. Either way,
buildup focused on acquisitions of naval, cruise, and ballistic missiles, long-range stealth aircraft, and anti-satellite capabilities. Chinas strategic
modernization is aimed, ultimately, at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have
grown, Chinas expansive territorial claims and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea have roiled its
relations with South Korea, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian states. Still, the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and
aggression.
Given the risks, the United States must focus on restoring its economic
and fiscal condition while checking and managing the rise of potential
adversarial regional powers such as China. While we face significant challenges, the U.S. economy still
accounts for over 20 percent of the worlds GDP. American institutions particularly those providing enforceable rule of law set it apart from all the rising
powers. Social cohesion underwrites political stability. U.S. demographic trends are healthier than those of any other developed country. A culture of
innovation, excellent institutions of higher education, and a vital sector of small and medium-sized enterprises propel the U.S. economy in ways difficult to
quantify. Historically, Americans have responded pragmatically, and sometimes through trial and error, to work our way through the kind of crisis that we
face today. The policy question is how to enhance economic growth and employment while cutting discretionary spending in the near term and curbing the
growth of entitlement spending in the out years. Republican members of Congress have outlined a plan. Several think tanks and commissions, including
President Obamas debt commission, have done so as well. Some consensus exists on measures to pare back the recent increases in domestic spending,
restrain future growth in defense spending, and reform the tax code (by reducing tax expenditures while lowering individual and corporate rates). These are
promising options. The key remaining question is whether the president and leaders of both parties on Capitol Hill have the will to act and the skill to
fashion bipartisan solutions. Whether we take the needed actions is a choice, however difficult it might be. It is clearly within our capacity to put our
economy on a better trajectory. In garnering political support for cutbacks, the president and members of Congress should point not only to the domestic
consequences of inaction but also to the geopolitical implications. As the United States gets its economic and fiscal house in order, it should take steps
to prevent a flare-up in Asia. The United States can do so by signaling that its domestic challenges will not impede its intentions to check Chinese
expansionism. This can be done in cost-efficient ways. While Chinas economic rise enables its military modernization and international assertiveness, it
also frightens rival powers. The Obama administration has wisely moved to strengthen relations with allies and potential partners in the region but more
can be done. Some Chinese policies encourage other parties to join with the United States, and the U.S. should not let these opportunities pass. Chinas
military assertiveness should enable security cooperation with countries on Chinas periphery particularly Japan, India, and Vietnam in ways that
complicate Beijings strategic calculus. Chinas mercantilist policies and currency manipulation which harm developing states both in East Asia and
elsewhere should be used to fashion a coalition in favor of a more balanced trade system. Since Beijings over-the-top reaction to the awarding of the
Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese democracy activist alienated European leaders, highlighting human-rights questions would not only draw supporters from
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Asia could seize the moment, leading the world toward a new, dangerous
era of multi-polarity .
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Keerthi Gondi
Scenario _ is Cyber-Attacks:
STEM solves Chinese cyber attack
Lips and McNeill 9 (Dan Lips and Jena Baker McNeill, Senior Policy Analyst in the Domestic Policy
Studies Department and Policy Analyst for Homeland Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation, A New Approach to Improving Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math
Education, The Heritage Foundation, 4/15/9, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/04/a-new-approach-toimproving-science-technology-engineering-and-math-education)
Gertz 13 (Bill Gertz, senior editor at the Free Beacon, Chinas Military Preparing for Peoples War in
Cyberspace, Space Translated report reveals high-tech plans for cyber attacks, anti-satellite strikes, The Washington
Free Beacon, 7/30/13, http://freebeacon.com/china-military-preparing-for-peoples-war-in-cyberspace-space/)
in a report Study on
Space Cyber Warfare by four engineers working at a Chinese defense research center in Shanghai.
one of
nited
. All personnel with special knowledge and skills on information system may participate in the execution of cyber warfare.
Cyber warfare may truly be called a peoples warfare, the report says. Peoples War was first developed by Chinas Communist founder Mao Zedong as a Marxist-Leninist insurgency and guerrilla warfare concept. The article provides
evidence that Chinese military theorists are adapting Maos peasant uprising stratagem for a future conflict with the United States. A defense official said the report was recently circulated in military and intelligence circles. Its
publication came as a surprise to many in the Pentagon because in the past, U.S. translations of Chinese military documents on similar warfighting capabilities were not translated under a directive from policy officials seeking to
prevent disclosure of Chinese military writings the officials feared could upset U.S.-China relations. A Chinese government spokesman could not be reached for comment. However, Chinese spokesmen in the past have denied reports
Both programs are considered trump card weapons that would allow a weaker China to
space
Chinas military
, is preparing
the report said.
cyberspace nodes are more concealed and thus more difficult to attack.
very vulnerable to attack.
Additionally,
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cyber reconnaissance
from space vehicles Space-based cyber
warfare will include
cyber attack cyber defense and cyber
support.
A space cyber-attack is carried out
using space tech and methods of hard kill and soft kill
Soft-kill methods are designed to
disrupt or damage cyberspace links
cyber
attacks include launching computer viruses, theft and tampering of data,
denial of service attacks, and detonation of [a] network bomb
warfare
, space
The space cyber support involves reconnaissance, targeting, and intelligence gathering.
space
nology
the same time uses cyberspace to disable, weaken, disrupt, and destroy the enemys cyber actions or cyber installations.
using jamming, network cyber attacks, and deceit in the electromagnetic domain.
The
destroy enemys information network. Soft kill measures are well concealed, fast in action, and the attack can be accomplished before the enemy even has time to discover it, the report said. Soft kill measures are deceptive and
along with directed energy, including lasers, radio frequency weapons, and particle beam weapons.
Armys (PLA) most closely guarded secrets, along with its anti-satellite missile and jamming program. The topic of military cyber warfare was recently discussed by U.S. and Chinese military and defense officials at a meeting earlier
this month of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington. The Washington Free Beacon obtained a copy of the recently translated report, dated December 2012 and published in the journal Aerospace Electronic
Warfare. The journal is a bimonthly publication of the Institute 8511, part of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp. (CASIC), a state-run missile manufacturer and high-technology aerospace research center. Institute 8511
develops electronic warfare offense and defense weapons, countermeasure technologies, and command and control systems for aircraft and missiles. The institute in the past also developed Chinas DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile,
a unique weapon that uses precision guidance to attack U.S. aircraft carriers at sea. The defense official said Institute 8511 is located close to the PLAs premier cyber warfare headquarters in Shanghai, known as Unit 61398. That
unit was identified in a report last February by the security firm Mandiant as the main origin of widespread military cyber attacks on the West. According to the report, Chinas goal for cyber war calls for using high-technology
war in
cyberspace is not constrained by nighttime, weather, or geography
weapons in cyberspace to achieve military objectives.
, the report said. The advantage of cyber warfare is its global nature; it has global alert, global resources, and global access.
Additionally,
at any time, key factors that have limited conventional warfighting in the past. In line with Chinese military doctrine that calls for sudden attacks and the element of surprise, the report said
is ideal
cyberwarfare
for rapid attacks that are difficult for an enemy to identify. This suddenness can often leave cyber warfare without a trace and without damaging the physical installation or personnel, and yet it can change
the trend and outcome of war by affecting the operational effectiveness in an instance. A second recently translated military report by two PLA colonels calls for China to adopt a new military doctrine called trump card and data
colonels
strategic concept designed to attack and defeat
link-centric warfare that is based on the U.S. war fighting doctrine called network-centric warfare. The two
communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, what the military calls
C4ISR
the
nited
tates
and the key to conducting combined arms warfare. The colonels call for new weapons and other military
and means
fare, making warfare even more sudden and its outcome even quicker to come, generating unmatched asymmetrical advantages, the colonels said.
its
, enabling it to have its own way to an even bigger extent and to promote its
politics of hegemony. Publication of the new cyber warfare report provides a more recent example of the contradiction between internal Chinese military writings and public statements. A 1999 book produced for the Pentagons
Office of Net Assessment and edited by China specialist Michael Pillsbury first reveals the contradiction. The book, Chinese Views of Future Warfare, influenced many senior Pentagon and military leaders views of China by showing
that internal Chinese military writings discussed plans for war with the United States, considered Chinas main enemy. The writings contrasted sharply with frequent public statements by China that its arms buildup is purely defensive
and not directed at any country. Richard Fisher, a Chinese military affairs expert, said the Chinese report reveals Chinas merger of cyber warfare and space warfare efforts. Fisher said the Chinese military understands that U.S.
satellites are critical to relaying computer data traffic and are vulnerable to direct attack.
satellite weapons
: ground based lasers in 2006 and then the SC-19 [anti-satellite] missile in 2007. A higher Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) capable ASAT called DN02 may have been tested recently,
Fisher said. China also is pressing for a space arms agreement at the same time it is building up its space forces, Fisher said. The bottom line today is that Chinas first priority is building the means to win wars in space while using
space diplomacy to disarm its potential enemies, he said. U.S. cyber warfare strategy was recently disclosed in a top-secret Presidential Policy Directive-20 that was made public by former National Security Agency contractor
Edward Snowden. The directive outlines the use of military cyber attacks that can offer unique and unconventional capabilities to advance U.S. national objectives around the world with little or no warning to the adversary or target
planners
ystem
or disable up to eight
lobal
ositioning
Eliminating two groups of GPS satellites can prevent GPS satellites from providing navigation service around the clock, the study stated. The effect of dropping these GPS satellites on the navigation accuracy of GPS satellites is quite
obvious, the study, Research on Voidness of GPS, said.
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Keerthi Gondi
the increased likelihood of their use'.33 This drift toward usage is strengthened by a strategic
fact elucidated by Frank Barnaby: when it comes to arming the heavens, 'anti-ballistic missiles and anti-satellite
warfare technologies go hand-in-hand'.34 The interlocking nature of offense and defense in military space
technology stems from the inherent 'dual capability' of spaceborne weapon components. As Marc Vidricaire,
Delegation of Canada to the UN Conference on Disarmament, explains: 'If you want to intercept something in space,
you could use the same capability to target something on land'. 35 To
Deployment of space weapons with predelegated authority to fire death rays or unleash killer projectiles would
likely make war itself inevitable, given the susceptibility of such systems to
'normal accidents'. It is chilling to contemplate the possible effects of a
space war. According to retired Lt. Col. Robert M. Bowman, 'even a tiny projectile reentering
from space strikes the earth with such high velocity that it can do
enormous damage even more than would be done by a nuclear weapon
of the same size!'. 37 In the same Star Wars technology touted as a quintessential tool of peace, defence
unexpected interactions of failures are inevitable'.36
analyst David Langford sees one of the most destabilizing offensive weapons ever conceived: 'One imagines dead
any
nation subjected to space weapon attack would retaliate with maximum
force, including use of nuclear, biological, and/or chemical weapons. An
accidental war sparked by a computer glitch in space could plunge the
world into the most destructive military conflict ever seen .
cities of microwave-grilled people'.38 Given this unique potential for destruction, it is not hard to imagine that
structure of nuclear command and control centres, how those structures might be compromised through computer network operations, and how doing so would fit within established
Continuing difficulties
in developing computer tracking technologies which could trace the
identity of intruders, and difficulties in establishing an internationally agreed upon legal framework to guide responses to computer network
operations, point towards an inherent weakness in using computer networks to
manage nuclear weaponry. This is particularly relevant to reducing the
provide terrorists with the asymmetric benefits of high speed, removal of geographical distance, and a relatively low cost.
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Keerthi Gondi
All computers which are connected to the internet are
network. This virus could then be carelessly transported on removable data storage between the open and closed network. Information found on the internet may also reveal how to
it was unable to establish communications with Soviet leadership. This was intended as a retaliatory response in the event that nuclear weapons had decapitated Soviet leadership;
however it did not account for the possibility of cyber terrorists blocking communications through computer network operations in an attempt to engage the system. Should a
disinformation could also be used to provoke uninformed responses. For example, a nuclear strike between India and Pakistan could be coordinated with Distributed Denial of Service
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and most indications support the notion that the US leads the world in
in all
fields.
in some fields,
might
occur,
or
in
what
fields,
and
whether
it
is
inevitable,
is
uncertain.
DoD
policy
implications
While
leadership
poses
an existential threat When
technical innovations occur in potentially adversarial countries or
domains, a strategy that relies on technological superiority for defense
capabilities will no longer suffice If a potential adversary can introduce
a disruptive technological capability, they can then use deterrence or
influence to control behaviors, compete economically, secure scarce
resources, and control diplomatic agendas The US strategy continues to
depend on technological superiority
it is imperative that the
US maintain its position of technological leadership
does
not
provide
Sputnik
moment
(65),ix
it
no
less
of
Emerging Threats and Capabilities) hearing on the Health and Status of the Defense Industrial Base and its S&T-related elements (66)xi took place in May 2011, and highlighted some of the issues and potential solution
paths. Those testifying called for a comprehensive strategy for the US to maintain technological leadership well into the 21st century. Many other specific suggestions were made during that hearing as to ways to support the
industrial base and to assist the partnership of DoD and the defense industrial base to utilize technology advances efficiently. Future prospects Many remedies have been proposed to ensure continued US technology
leadership, in the face of challenges and stresses within the US S&T enterprise. Some of the typical concerns are overall funding levels, DoD funding for S&T, the efficiency of the application of funds to S&T, and the
emphasis
of
disciplines
within
S&T.
Other
research in S&T, and the production rate of scientists and the career
opportunities.
Since research is an intermediate product
there
is often little appreciation of the role of the researcher and inventor.
We have noted many of these issues in our survey of elements of the S&T enterprise. The larger concern is over the respect in which science and technology is held within our
society.
After
World War II, there was great respect afforded scientists, particularly physicists. Post-Sputnik, there was a deliberate effort to elevate the stature of science and technology, and the manned space program certainly
contributed to societal respect. Some argue that it is because there has been a precipitous off-shoring of manufacturing that the generation of new ideas has moved overseas (67). Andy Grove of Intel makes a
complementary argument: That as manufacturing moves overseas, American companies lose the knowledge of how to scale up new ideas to full-scale production (68). Both arguments suggest there are reduced incentives
for domestic research as manufacturing moves elsewhere, and lead to the conclusion that research is best performed by those with familiarity of product production. Thus, they argue that we need to reinvigorate
manufacturing and production for economic vitality so that technology development and leadership will follow. And, indeed, the nation has an Advanced Manufacturing Initiative, and many cite a resurgence of domestic
. So how
, although according to some the rate of technical progress has, indeed, slowed.
well as Europe,
productive. According to Bill Gates, you always have to renew your lead.xii The US has the resources and infrastructure necessary to maintain and renew a lead in technology. But momentum is not sufficient. In light of
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Keerthi Gondi
enact a strategy to renew the technology lead. Instead, continued US technical leadership will require a dedicated and coordinated effort throughout the society.
647] those who would look at Asia through the lens of Gilpins theory are Chinas expanding share of world trade and wealth
(much of it resulting from the gains made possible by the international economic order a dominant US established); its
acquisition of technology in key sectors that have both civilian and military applications (e.g., information, communications,
and electronics linked with the revolution in military affairs); and an expanding military burden for the US (as it copes with the
challenges of its global war on terrorism and especially its struggle in Iraq) that limits the resources it can devote to preserving
its interests in East Asia.14 Although similar to Gilpins work insofar as it emphasizes the importance of shifts in the capabilities
of a dominant state and a rising challenger, the power-transition theory A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler present in The War
Ledger focuses more closely on the allegedly dangerous phenomenon of crossover the point at which a dissatisfied
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Keerthi Gondi
Scenario _ is Nanotech:
Nanotech is inevitable within the decade
Treder and Phoenix 7 Mike Treder, *Executive Director of CRN, BS Biology, University of Washington,
Research Fellow with the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, a consultant to the Millennium Project of the
American Council for the United Nations University and to the Future Technologies Advisory Group, serves on the
Nanotech Briefs Editorial Advisory Board, is a member of the New York Academy of Sciences and a member of the
World Future Society, and Chris Phoenix, CRNs Director of Research, has studied nanotechnology for more than 15
years. BS, Symbolic Systems, MS, Computer Science, Stanford University. CRN's positions are the result of
deliberations between its principals, Mike Treder and Chris Phoenix, informed by our mutual lifelong interest in
emerging technologies and studies of societal dynamics, and sharpened through consultation with experts in many
fields and continued research into both the technical and policy aspects of advanced nanotechnology, Center For
Responsible Nanotechnology, Results of Our Ongoing Research, Last Updated 12/28/07,
http://www.crnano.org/overview.htm
Materials can be about 100 times stronger than steel. This means that most human-scale products would consist almost entirely of empty space, reducing material requirements and cost.
Most of the rest of the product would be structural, easy to design. Even
the simplest products could be software-controlled at no extra hardware
cost. Manufacturing of prototypes would be quite rapida few minutes to a few hours. Because manufacturing and prototyping are the same process, a successful
prototype design could immediately be distributed for widespread use. A
designer working with a few basic predesigned blocks could design, build, and test a simple product in less than a day. Products with complex interfaces to humans or to their surroundings
information appliances, automobiles, aerospace hardware, medical deviceswould be limited by the time required to develop their software and test their functionality. However, in
An explosion of new,
useful products could rapidly follow the widespread availability of a nanofactory. Advanced nanotech can be very beneficial . (MORE) Manufacturing with nanotechnology can solve many of the world's
some fields the high time and money cost of manufacture slows other parts of the development cycle; this effect would disappear.
current problems. Water shortage is a serious and growing problem. Most water is used for industry and agriculture; both of these requirements would be greatly reduced by products
made by molecular manufacturing. Infectious disease is a continuing scourge in many parts of the world. Simple products like pipes, filters, and mosquito nets can greatly reduce this
problem. Information and communication are valuable, but lacking in many places. Computers and display devices would become stunningly cheap. Electrical power is still not available in
many areas. The efficient, cheap building of light, strong structures, electrical equipment, and power storage devices would allow the use of solar thermal power as a primary and
abundant energy source. Environmental degradation is a serious problem worldwide. High-tech products can allow people to live with much less environmental impact. Many areas of the
world cannot rapidly bootstrap a 20th century manufacturing infrastructure. Molecular manufacturing can be self-contained and clean; a single packing crate or suitcase could contain all
equipment required for a village-scale industrial revolution. Finally, MNT will provide cheap and advanced equipment for medical research and health care, making improved medicine
widely available. Much social unrest can be traced directly to material poverty, ill health, and ignorance. MNT can contribute to great reductions in all of these problems, and in the
associated human suffering. Advanced nanotech could be very dangerous. (MORE) Molecular nanotechnology will be a significant breakthrough, comparable perhaps to the Industrial
Revolutionbut compressed into a few years. This has the potential to disrupt many aspects of society and politics. The power of the technology may cause two competing nations to
enter a disruptive and unstable arms race. Weapons and surveillance devices could be made small, cheap, powerful, and very numerous. Cheap manufacturing and duplication of designs
could lead to economic upheaval. Overuse of inexpensive products could cause widespread environmental damage. Attempts to control these and other risks may lead to abusive
restrictions, or create demand for a black market that would be very risky and almost impossible to stop; small nanofactories will be very easy to smuggle, and fully dangerous. There are
numerous severe risksincluding several different kinds of riskthat cannot all be prevented with the same approach. Simple, one-track solutions cannot work. The right answer is
unlikely to evolve without careful planning. Simplistic regulation won't work. (MORE) Molecular nanotechnology manufacturing creates several severe risks, and each risk tempts a simple
and extreme solution. However, a patchwork of extreme solutions will be both destructive and ineffective. For example, Bill Joy and others have proposed halting nanotechnology research
entirely. This would not actually work; instead, it would relocate the research to less responsible venues. The risks might be delayed by a few years, but would be far worse when they
appeared because the technology would be even less controllable. To take another example, economic upheaval might be prevented by strict commercial licensing of all uses of the
technology. This has two problems. First, digital protection schemes for commercial products have often proved quite easy to crack. Second, if the technology is so restricted that it cannot
disrupt existing economic systems, continuing poverty will kill millions of people each year, fueling backlash, social unrest, espionage, and independent development. Each risk must be
reduced by some means that does not exacerbate others. This will not be easy, and will require creative and sensitive solutions. There are several approaches that may help. (MORE)
Once molecular manufacturing is developed, it will have to be administered. There are several approaches that might help. CRN is not advocating any of these approaches at this point; we
don't know enough about how the technology will be developed or in what context. We also have to point out that we don't think any one approach will be enough. Any effective program
will require a balance of several different kinds of administration. Some possibilities include built-in technical restrictions in personal nanofactories; intellectual property reform; and
international cooperation or monitoring of various kinds. Despite the difficulties and complexities, we believe that a solution can be found to preserve most of the potential benefits while
avoiding the most severe risks.
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Keerthi Gondi
The current interest, planning, and activity toward reinvigorating Science, Technology, Engineering,
and Mathematics (STEM) education provides programmatic opportunities for innovation.
With the disruptive discoveries already realized through nanoscale science
and engineering research, it is essential to examine what impact the nanoscale might
impose on approaches to revamp STEM education: Nanostructures can have new
physical, chemical, and biological properties . This new knowledge should be incorporated into the
educational corpus.
9 politicians 10 and academicians 11 to believe that nanotechnology has the potential to profoundly change the economy and to improve the national standard of living.
12 In addition, nanotechnology
may touch every facet of human life because its products cross the
13 In the future,
nanotechnology could ensure longer, healthier lives with the reduction or elimination of lifethreatening diseases, 14 a cleaner planet with pollution remediation and emission-free energy, 15 and the innumerable benefits of increased information
technology. 16 However, certain uses, such as advanced drug delivery systems, 17 have given rise to an ethical debate similar to that surrounding cloning and stem cell
research. 18 Moreover, some analysts have theorized that nanotechnology may endanger humankind with
more dangerous warfare and weapons of terrorism, 19 and that nanotechnology may lead to
artificial intelligence beyond human control. 20 The widespread use of nanotechnology far in the future threatens to
alter the societal framework and create what has been called "gray goo ." 21 Because
nanotechnology has the potential to improve the products that most of us rely on in our daily lives, but
also imperil society as we know it, we should research, monitor and regulate
nanotechnology for the public good with trustworthy systems, and set up pervasive controls over its
research, development, and deployment. In addition, its substantial impacts on existing regulations should be ascertained, and
boundaries of the most important industries, including electronics, biomedical and pharmaceutical [*89] industries, and energy production.
solutions incorporated into the regulatory framework. This paper addresses these concerns and provides potential solutions. Part I outlines the development of nanotechnology. Parts II and
III explore the current and theoretical future applications of nanotechnology, and its potential side-effects. Then, Part IV analyzes the government's current role in monitoring
nanotechnology, and the regulatory mechanisms available to manage or eliminate the negative implications of nanotechnology. Part V considers the creation of an Emerging Technologies
Department as a possible solution to maximize the benefits and minimize the detrimental effects of nanotechnology. Lastly, Part VI examines certain environmental regulations to provide
an example of nanotechnology's impact on existing regulatory schema. [*90] Part I: Nanotechnology Defined Nanoscience is the study of the fundamental principles of molecules and
22 Called nanostructures,
23 Nanofabrication, or nanoscale manufacturing, is the process by which nanostructures are built. 24 Top-down nanofabrication
creates nanostructures by taking a large structure and making it smaller, whereas bottom-up nanofabrication starts with individual atoms to build nanostructures. 25 Nanotechnology
applies nanostructures into useful nanoscale devices. 26 The nanoscale is distinctive because it is the size scale where the properties of materials like conductivity, 27 hardness, 28 or
melting point 29 are no longer similar to the properties of these same materials at the macro level. 30 Atom interactions, averaged out of existence in bulk material, give rise to unique
properties. 31 In [*91] nanotech research, scientists take advantage of these unique properties to develop products with applications that would not otherwise be available. 32 Although
some products using nanotechnology are currently on the market, 33 nanotechnology is primarily in the research and development stage. 34 Because nanoparticles are remarkably
small, tools specific to nanotechnology have been created to develop useful nanostructures and devices. 35 Two techniques exclusive to nanotechnology are self-assembly, and
structures with at least one dimension roughly between 1 and 100 nanometers (one-billionth of a meter, or 10[su'-9']), otherwise known as the "nanoscale."
these are the smallest solid things possible to make.
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Keerthi Gondi
36 [*92] In self-assembly, particular atoms or molecules are put on a surface or preconstructed nanostructure, causing the molecules to
37 Although self-assembly is "probably the most important of the nanoscale fabrication techniques because of its generality, its ability to
produce structures at different length-scales, and its low cost," 38 most nanostructures are built starting with larger molecules as components. 39 Nanotubes 40 and nanorods, 41
the first true nanomaterials engineered at the molecular level, are two examples of these building blocks. 42 They exhibit astounding physical and electrical properties. 43 Certain
nanotubes have tensile strength in excess of 60 times high-grade steel while remaining light and flexible. 44 Currently, nanotubes are used in tennis rackets and golf clubs to make them
lighter and stronger. 45 Part II: Nanotechnology's Uses Researching and manipulating the properties of nanostructures are important for a number of reasons, including, most basically, to
gain an understanding of how matter is constructed, and more practically, to use these unique properties to develop unique products. 46 Nanoproducts can be divided into four general
categories: 47 smart materials, 48 sensors, 49 biomedical applications, 50 and optics and electronics. 51 [*93] A "smart" material incorporates in its design a capability to perform
several specific tasks. 52 In nanotechnology, that design is done at the molecular level. 53 Clothing, enhanced with nanotechnology, is a useful application of a smart material at the
nanoscale. Certain nano-enhanced clothing contains fibers that have tiny whiskers that repel liquids, reduce static and resist stains without affecting feel. 54 Nano-enhanced rubber
represents another application of a nanoscale smart material. 55 Tires using nanotech-components increase skid resistance by reducing friction, which reduces abrasion and makes the
tires last longer. 56 The tires may be on the market "in the next few years" according to the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI). 57 Theoretically, this rubber could be used on a
variety of products, ranging from tires to windshield wiper blades to athletic shoes. 58 A more complex nanotechnology smart material is a photorefractive polymer. 59 Acting as a
nanoscale "barcode," these polymers could be used as information storage devices with a storage density exceeding the best available magnetic storage structures. 60 Nano-sensors
may "revolutionize much of the medical care and the food packaging industries," 61 as well as the environmental field because of their ability to detect toxins and pollutants at fewer
than ten molecules. 62 As the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recognizes: Protection of human health and ecosystems requires rapid, precise sensors capable of detecting
nanofabrication using nanotubes and nanorods.
align themselves into particular positions.
pollutants at the molecular level. Major improvements in process control, compliance monitoring, and environmental decision-making could [*94] be achieved if more accurate, less costly,
more sensitive techniques were available. Nanotechnology offers the possibility of sensors enabled to be selective or specific, detect multiple analytes, and monitor their presence in real
63 Examples of research in sensors include the development of nano-sensors for efficient and rapid biochemical detection of pollutants; sensors capable of continuous
64 All fundamental life
processes occur at the nanoscale, making it the ideal scale at which to fight diseases. 65 Two quintessential examples of biomedical applications of nanotechnology are advanced drug
delivery systems and nano-enhanced drugs. 66 The promise of advanced drug delivery systems lies in that they direct drug molecules only to where they are needed in the body. 67
One example is focusing chemotherapy on the site of the tumor, instead of the whole body, thereby improving the drug's effectiveness while decreasing its unpleasant side-effects. 68
Other researchers are working to develop nanoparticles that target and trick cancer cells into absorbing certain nanoparticles. 69 These nanoparticles would then kill tumors from within,
avoiding the destruction of healthy cells, as opposed to the indiscriminate damage caused by traditional chemotherapy. 70 Nano-enhanced suicide inhibitors 71 limit enzymatic activity
by forcing naturally occurring enzymes to form bonds with the nanostructured molecule. 72 This may treat conditions such as epilepsy and depression because of the enzyme action
component involved in these conditions. 73 Lastly, nanotechnology has the potential to revolutionize the electronics and optics fields. 74 For instance, nanotechnology has the potential
to produce clean, [*95] renewable solar power. 75 Through a process called artificial photosynthesis, solar energy is produced by using nanostructures based on molecules which capture
light and separate positive and negative charges. 76 Certain Swiss watches and bathroom scales are illuminated through a nanotech procedure that transforms captured sunlight into an
electrical current. 77 In the electronics field, nanostructures offer many different ways to increase memory storage by substantially reducing the size of memory bits and thereby
increasing the density of magnetic memory, increasing efficiency, and decreasing cost. 78 One example is storing memory bits as magnetic nanodots, which can be reduced in size until
they reach the super-paramagnetic limit, the smallest possible magnetic memory structure. 79 Advances in electronics and computing brought on by nanotechnology could allow
reconfigurable, "thinking" spacecraft. 80 Some uses of nano-products already on the market include suntan lotions and skin creams, tennis balls that bounce longer, faster-burning rocket
fuel additives, and new cancer treatments. 81 Solar cells in roofing tiles and siding that provide electricity for homes and facilities, and the prototypic tires, supra, may be on the market
in the next few years. 82 The industry expects advanced drug delivery systems with implantable devices that automatically administer drugs and sensor drug levels, and medical
diagnostic tools such as cancer-tagging mechanisms to be on the market in the next two to five years. 83 It is nearly impossible to foresee what developments to expect in
nanotechnology in the decades to come. 84 Nonetheless, the book Engines of Creation presented one vision of the possibilities of advanced nanotechnology. 85 Nano-machines could
be designed to construct any product, from mundane items such as a chair, to exciting items such as a rocket engine. 86 These "assemblers" could also be programmed to build copies
of themselves. 87 Known as "replicators," these nano-machines could alter the world by producing an exponential quantity of themselves that are to be put to work as assemblers. 88
The development of assemblers could advance the space [*96] exploration program, 89 biomedical field, 90 and even repair the damage done to the world's ecological systems. 91
Over time, production costs may sharply decrease because the assemblers will be able to construct all future products from an original blueprint at virtually no additional cost. 92 Part III:
time.
measurement over large areas; integration of nano-enabled sensors for real-time continuous monitoring; and sensors that utilize "lab-on-a-chip" technology.
With the good, however, comes the bad. The "gray goo problem," the most well-known unwanted
93 arises when replicators and assemblers produce almost anything, and subsequently
spread uncontrolled, obliterating natural organisms and replacing them with nano-enhanced organisms. 94
A more foreseeable issue is environmental contamination. 95 The EPA noted As nanotechnology progresses
from research and development to commercialization and use, it is likely that manufactured nanomaterials and nanoproducts will be released
into the environment. . The unique features of manufactured nanomaterials and a lack of experience with these materials hinder the risk evaluation that is
Nanotechnology's Side-Effects
needed to inform decisions about pollution prevention, environmental clean-up and other control measures, including regulation. Beyond the usual concerns for most toxic materials ... the
adequacy of current toxicity tests for chemicals needs to be assessed ... . To the extent that nanoparticles [*97] ... elicit novel biological responses, these concerns need to be accounted
99 Luckily, nanotechnology offers responses to these problems, and researchers are already tackling these issues. 100 "Labs101 Adding smart materials could make soldiers' uniforms
resistant to certain chemical and biological agents. 102 Nanotechnology also enhances threats against citizens. Drugs and bugs (electronic surveillance devices) could be used by police
states to monitor and control its citizenry. 103 Viruses could be created that target specific genetic characteristics. 104 Not only is the development of technologically advanced,
weapons built with innocuous materials such as carbon.
on-a-chip," a sensor system the size of a microchip, could be woven into soldiers' uniforms to detect toxins immediately.
devastating weaponry itself a hazardous effect of nanotechnology, but also, millions of dollars have already been spent researching potential uses of nanotechnology in the military
105
sphere,
thus diverting funds from more beneficial uses such as biomedical applications and clean energy. However, these negative effects are not inevitable. By analyzing the scope
of potential drawbacks accompanying these research investments, lawmakers can institute regulatory controls that could mitigate these problems. [*98] Part IV: Maximizing Benefits,
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nanotechnology." 107 Nonetheless, as nanotechnology becomes more prevalent, more thorough regulation may
be necessary. 108 Nanotechnology may greatly impact some of the largest revenue producing industries in the United States, such as the pharmaceutical and
medical fields, utilities and power generation, and computer electronics.
109 Thus, it is clear that nanotechnology will likely touch every facet of human life. In addition, these powerful
federal
government must regulate nanotechnology for the public good as it pertains to these
industries have been known to promote profits over human safety,
110 one of the reasons for their stringent regulation. [*99] The
111 Each system has its advantages and disadvantages. 112 The system should be accountable to
113 while minimizing "the traditional laments of the bureaucratic agency: lack of efficiency, duplication of effort, and
subjection to Congressional and judicial requirements in enacting regulations." 114 Certain proposals are outlined briefly in this article as examples of what can be done to regulate
industries. The form and scope of the trustworthy systems are being debated.
judicial review and public comment, as well as transparent,
nanotechnology.
there
will still be the danger of an arms race between states possessing
nanotechnology. It has been argued [26] that molecular manufacturing would lead to both arms race instability and crisis
instability, to a higher degree than was the case with nuclear weapons. Arms race instability means that
there would be dominant incentives for each competitor to escalate its
armaments, leading to a runaway arms race. Crisis instability means that there would be dominant
incentives for striking first. Two roughly balanced rivals acquiring nanotechnology
would, on this view, begin a massive buildup of armaments and weapons
development programs that would continue until a crisis occurs and war breaks out, potentially causing
nanotech attack are developed before dangerous replicators are designed and acquired by suicidal regimes or terrorists,
global terminal destruction . That the arms race could have been predicted is no guarantee that an international
security system will be created ahead of time to prevent this disaster from happening. The nuclear arms race
between the US and the USSR was predicted but occurred nevertheless.
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Solvency
Contention 1 is Solvency:
The plan would create collaboration that vastly increases
student exchanges and university research cooperation
through joint degree programs
Wood 13 (Duncan, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars, professor and the director of the International
Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mxico, Educational
cooperation and exchanges: An emerging issue,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Wood_Edu_US_Mex.pdf, Accessed
8/5/13, Keerthi)
To attain this goal, it makes sense to create a binational task force on educational
opportunities that would include leading government officials; university
presidents from the two countries; business leaders from the two countries
closely identified with higher education; and key educational organizations
.COMEXUS (Fulbright-Garca Robles Commission), the only truly binational education organization, could serve as a secretariat. An ambitious agenda
for educational exchange would include a series of public/private
partnerships to strengthen student exchange, create joint degree
programs and fund strategic partnerships between universities on both sides of the border
to develop common research and training programs. This is the kind of
exercise that would both interest and benefit the private sector, leading
educational institutions, and multiple levels of government . The goal
would be to encourage additional public and private funding for four sets
of targeted educational exchange opportunities: Increased funding for
scholarships to study abroad in the other country via Comexus and other
scholarship-offering programs. This may need to privilege semester and year-abroad study rather than full two or five-year graduate programs
in the other country, but the specific goals of the programs must be designed in consultation with universities, philanthropic organizations and the private sector. The goal would be to first
and foremost give students in the two countries a strategic exposure to the educational resources in the other country, with only a secondary focus on funding full degree programs
This would allow for vastly increasing the numbers of students involved
abroad.
.
In addition to these steps towards boosting exchanges, it will be important to develop mechanisms to encourage universities to start their own scholarship programs for semesters/years
abroad in the other country, building on existing efforts. Identifying leading institutions in both countries, universities that are already heavily committed to international exchange and
programs to maximize choice for students. In order to identify which programs would likely grow quickly, it is worth examining what the preferences of exchange students are today.
Mexican students travelling to the U.S. tend to focus their studies in two main areas: business and engineering, with 22% and 17% of the total respectively. For US students opting to study
In order to foster
stronger ties not only between students but also between university researchers, it is imperative
that seed funding is created to encourage university to university
partnerships on research. USAIDs TIES program pioneered this, but it was unilateral and then disappeared. A truly binational approach, with
competitive seed funding to encourage research partnerships, would be particularly exciting. The implementation of these
proposals would be facilitated by the existence of common standards
in Mexico, there is a bias towards the social sciences that highlights their curiosity for Latin American studies, history and culture.
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politics, security, economics and technology issues, regarded as one of the top
foreign policy bloggers and reporters, runs his popular Latin American foreign policy
blog called Blogging by Boz, Writes for Woodrow Wilson Center, Fixing the problems
in US-Mexico student exchanges http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/02/couldinstability-spread-to-latin.html, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
One of the announcements that the US and Mexican governments want to highlight from President Obama's trip is the creation of the United States-Mexico Bilateral Forum on Higher
Education, Innovation, and Research. The vaguely wordedvannouncement promises to "encourage broader access to quality post-secondary education for traditionally underserved
demographic groups, especially in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. They will also expand educational exchanges, increase joint research on education
university students in the US holds steady around 13,000 to 14,000, and that number has barely increased over the last decade (it was 12,500 in 2002). The opposite direction is worse.
The number of US students studying in Mexico peaked in 2006 over 10,000. However, security concerns caused numerous US university programs to pull out of the country. By 2011, the
number was only 4,100 US students in Mexico. That's less than the number of US students studying in Costa Rica and Argentina and is only slightly above Brazil, Chile and Ecuador.
To
reach President Obama's goal to double the number of student exchanges in the hemisphere, including 100,000 US
students in Latin America, the numbers for US-Mexico student exchanges will need to be at
least 20,000 and probably 25,000, students traveling in each direction. We're nowhere near that number and
the trend lines are not looking good, thus the need for this initiative. There are at least four areas
where this forum can help improve the numbers: admissions, tuition, credit
transfer and security. On admissions, universities need confidence that the exchange
students are qualified and students need relief from burdensome
paperwork that some of these programs demand. Usually, this is fixed by one-off agreements
between individual universities. This forum could help create a larger
system agreed to by multiple universities that could ease this process and
open up additional opportunities for students in both directions . Tuition needs to be more
transparent for students, so they know how much they are spending and where that money goes when they enter an exchange program. Government
encouragement and regulations can help empower students on this front
and make exchange programs more affordable. Students can't go on
exchange programs if the credits don't transfer and it requires an
additional semester of university to graduate. Universities need to
communicate and collaborate to better understand how classes and
prerequisites overlap and how they can count towards credits. This is one area that
should be easier in STEM than it is in the social sciences and humanities. On security, US universities need
encouragement to allow their students to travel to Mexico . Unlike the media,
universities should be able to look beyond the hype and recognize that
some areas of the country, including the capital, are relatively safe. Even a
city that is less safe, like Monterrey, has some great universities and
students should be able to make informed decisions about whether they would like to attend. Perhaps
surprising to some US citizens, Mexican universities also need a bit of encouragement on the
security issue after all the coverage of school shootings in the US. This is a dialogue that
needs to go in both directions. Of course, governments can only encourage these goals . The reason
this is a "forum" is that it needs the voluntary cooperation of public and
private universities to be a success. Governments (at least governments that aren't China) cannot force students to study abroad, nor
are they going to provide significant additional resources. The hope is that the forum can get universities, civil society and the
private sector talking.
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).
abroad
the number of
far
, behind China, India, South Korea, Canada, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, and even Vietnam, according to the Institute of International Education (IIE). When studying abroad, Mexico is the eighth destination
The
importance of student exchange programs to foster economic relationships has been recognized by President Obamas 100,000 Strong initiative, which seeks to increase the number of American students in China. A similar
sides of the Southwest border. There is currently only one joint program between the U.S. and Mexico intended to prepare attorneys to practice law in both countries.
Mexicans are the largest legal and undocumented immigrant population in the U.S. and the same happens south of the border with Americans being the
largest foreign-born population in Mexico, according to the Mexican Census office INEGI.
When on vacation,
while the opposite is true for Mexicans. Large numbers of Mexicans work for American transnational corporations, watch American films and TV series, and enjoy American music.
Their contact with American tourists, and imported products have also crafted perceptions of the United States in Mexico. At the same time, immigrants from Mexico, news from the border, the growing presence of Tex-Mex and Mexican
perceptions based on
influences can hold stereotypes or outdated information
food, beer, and Spanish-language in the U.S. has shaped American perceptions of Mexico. However,
cultural
said they dislike American ways of doing business, and 56% responded that it is bad that American ideas and customs spread in Mexico. When asked in 2006, Americans agreed that Mexico is important to the future of their country but
, however, more Mexicans could be taking the advantage of enrolling in some of the worlds best universities as
their Chinese counterparts are doing. Studying in the U.S. is one of the best ways to gain great insights in American business culture.
between Mexico and the U.S.
trade
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applications. In an ideal scenario, the proportion of applications would be distributed among enough
the decline
in Chinese applications was offset by a 20 percent increase in
applications from India. But that is only shifting, not diversifying,
the source. In fact, the NSF data reveals that individuals from China, India, and South Korea account
for half of all doctoral degrees in science and engineering awarded to foreign visa holders. When
most foreign applicants come from just a few source countries, what
happens when those students suddenly start deciding to go
nations that a downturn in one country is offset by an increase in another. And, in fact,
Washington) are even looking to legislate higher fees for international students as a way to generate more
money. Moreover,
importing U.S. campuses) as a means to reduce the number of their students studying overseas. Finally,
incidents such as the recent Boston bombing are causing many foreign students to re-evaluate the safety
of this country, as well as further heighten scrutiny of the U.S. student visa approval and verification
process. The sum of all of these developments suggests that the U.S. dominance in the race may be
challenged in the stretch. Do these trends portend the end of graduate education as we know it in the
U.S.? Likely not. But
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To promote coverage of
To introduce
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STEM
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A2
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169,000 jobs in August . Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, discusses whether this complicates the Fed's
plans for tapering. "The low labor participation rate is due to laborers who are leaving the workforce, going to school or going on disability,"
she says. The 2013 Teens & Careers survey was co-sponsored by Junior Achievement, ING U.S. Foundation and conducted by GfK Public
Affairs & Corporate Communications. The survey's margin of error is +/- 3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. JA has been doing the
survey in some format since 2002, but only polled its own members until 2009 when it switched to a national sample of randomly selected
The waning interest in the STEM jobs may prove worrisome amid
other reports of workforce unpreparedness.
teens.
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International
students provide a key source of talent for U.S. employers and are
crucial to enhancing the ability of U.S. universities to conduct
research and offer high quality academic programs to U.S. students. International students also provide cultural
these high numbers of international students in STEM programs are essential for several reasons:
and foreign policy benefits to the United States and are an important and inexpensive way to promote American ideas and
values abroad.
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the board where youd have just certain schools that are able to
support good programs. That would lead to a shrinking of U.S.
leadership in education and technology if you have many fewer programs with high-quality
research and top-level professors.
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A2 Alt Causes
The only issue is capacity of workers 1AC says plan
resolves this.
Kurtzleben 13 (Danielle Kurtzleben, Juny 19, The (Not So) Simple
Roadmap to Solving STEM Problems,
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/06/19/the-not-so-simpleroadmap-to-solving-stem-problems, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
In a keynote speech at the U.S. News 2013 STEM Solutions conference, Surya Kant, president of IT consulting firm Tata
Employers
in STEM fields nationwide are concerned about this coming dearth
Consulting Services, cited those figures to stress the crisis that employers believe they will soon face.
four
capability , for
example, involves identifying which skills a STEM worker will need, then relaying that
particularly
girls and
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President
our STEM education
compared to other nations, and identified three overarching priorities to ensure more students develop the skills needed to succeed in the STEM fields: improving
and expanding STEM education and career opportunities for underrepresented groups, including women and minorities. The Presidents 2013 budget
request for the Department of Education and Blueprint for Reform of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act will help to strengthen Americas leadership in the 21st
century by improving STEM education. $150 million for Effective Teaching and Learning: STEM, which would replace the current Mathematics and Science Partnerships
program. This new program would support the transition to college- and career-ready standards by helping States improve teaching and learning in science, technology,
engineering and mathematics, and it would be connected to the math-science partnership program at NSF. Funds would be used to support State implementation of
comprehensive, evidence-based plans; professional development that aligns Federal, State, and local resources to promote high-quality STEM instruction; and for
subgrants to high-need LEAs to support comprehensive STEM instruction in the grades and schools with the greatest needs. The President has announced an ambitious
goal of preparing 100,000 excellent STEM teachers over the next decade. To move toward this goal, programs in the Presidents budget would support existing STEM
teachers, improve the quality of STEM teacher preparation programs, and recruit the best STEM undergraduates to careers in teaching through investments such as: o
program
would provide competitive awards to create or expand high-quality
pathways to teacher certification and other innovative approaches for recruiting, training, and placing talented recent
college graduates and mid-career professionals in the STEM fields in high-need schools. o A new Presidential Teaching
Fellows program ($190 million) to fund formula grants to States to support scholarships for
talented students to attend top-tier teacher preparation programs and work in high-need
$80 million for the STEM teacher and leader training and professional development set aside from the Effective Teachers and Leaders program. This
STEM . Presidential Teaching Fellows would be selected on the basis of grade-point average, major in a high-need academic
subject, and commitment to working in high- need schools, with a priority for low-income students.
Uniqueness
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US STEM Low
STEM competitiveness low government action and
encouragement of programs is key
--plan popular
home. And we all know that in an era of budget deficits, we will need to achieve better results without spending more.
Both those
STEM Solvency
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*Now key- Mexico is poised to move from a middle income to high income country
Wood 13 (Duncan, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars, professor and the director of the International
Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mxico, Educational
cooperation and exchanges: An emerging issue,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Wood_Edu_US_Mex.pdf, Accessed
8/5/13, Keerthi)
At a time when the Mexican and United States governments are looking for
an opportunity to diversify the bilateral agenda and strengthen the economic relationship,
there is an urgent need to focus on the long term challenges of
competitiveness and human capital in the region. Questions of infrastructure, standards,
border procedures and energy are all crucial to this equation, but an emerging issue that has been
little discussed in the public sphere is that of educational cooperation. Several
experts and government officials have long recognized this as a potential growth area in the bilateral relationship,
to move from a middle income to high income country. Indeed, the Pea Nieto government's first major legislative
effort has been a constitutional reform of the K-12 system to improve the quality of education. Ho wever,
a
second area that requires major attention is undergraduate and graduate
education, especially in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering
and mathematics) and innovation. At the same time, the United States needs to
develop the cultural and linguistic capacities that would allow Americans in
professions ranging from nursing to teaching to business to better communicate with the
growing Spanish-language population in the United States and to take
advantage of commercial and investment opportunities in the Western Hemisphere.
There exists, therefore, a powerful logic for the two governments to work
together to seek mutually beneficial solutions to their educational needs.
One excellent way of doing so would be to encourage higher levels of university-level exchanges between them.
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Unemployment in the U.S. is at its highest since the mid-80s, college graduates are struggling to find jobs in
their respective fields, and the so-called American Dream is slipping farther out of reach. Yet, there are 3.2 million
available jobs in this country in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) fields. Right now.
Today. This moment. Moreover, according to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 63% of those with only associates
degrees in STEM earn more than those with bachelors degrees in non-STEM occupations. In addition, 47% of those with bachelors degrees in STEM
them . With these facts as a backdrop, you would think that every kid in America would be scrambling to take a STEM major. Wrong. One study
Whom then can
we get to qualify for these high-paying, readily available, yet evidently not
very popular jobs? Answer: Hispanics. Over the last several decades, it has primarily been
Hispanic immigrants, legal and illegal, whove done Americas dirty work. Janitors, construction
showed that nearly half of high school students surveyed say they will most likely not pursue a STEM-related degree.
labor, factory workers, meatpacking, housecleaning, cooks, chefs, you name it, Hispanics have done these jobs with drive and aplomb, and nary a
move en masse from low-paying but steady work as Americas default blue collar labor force to the leaders of the STEM education revolution that must
happen if this nation is to maintain its top-tier economic status. Consider this:
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such an effort, governments, educational authorities and businesses will be contributing to the
creation of a new generation of bilingual, bicultural young professionals
who will be prepared to work in either economy. Particularly in the area of
the sciences and engineering, Mexican students will benefit from high
quality programs and relatively abundant resources. This coincides with a
period in which more Hispanic students in the United States are choosing to
study these degrees. For U.S. students, the benefits of both stronger Spanish language skills on the one hand, and a
greater sensitivity to and understanding of Mexican professional culture on the other, would be considerable, both in the domestic
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for students who will stay for life, meaning they emphasize
acculturation and language-acquisition. For transnational students, this may mean
having to lose part of their other culture, only to return amidst it later in life. While it may be
difficult to assess whether a student is a settler or a sojourner (for more information, see Ziga & Hamann,
and academic well-being. 54 Implications for Global Education All across the world, students are consistently
2002). According to Sssmuth (2007), globalization will require a need for a variety of intercultural skills, including
cognitive, digital, emotional, and social skills. While the transnational students in this study are perfectly poised to
international policy level, the United States and Mexico should discuss how best to align their education systems so
transnational students moving between them would not lose topics, sequencing, course offerings, or skills. Since the
All students could benefit from building intercultural skills, and transnational and immigrant students could be the
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mutual respect and better communication between Mexico and the United
States. Unfortunately, the amount of stigmatization and currently held beliefs from populations on both sides of
the border will be difficult to change. Regardless, global education reform based on student success and
achievement should be less motivated by who is doing what? and who is doing it better? and, instead, should
focus on how students are acquiring the skills necessary to thrive in an
attempt to navigate away from the quantitative realm and bring the voices of the players, those truly affected by
globalization, into the arena. These transnational students are possibly the most affected by the global education
reform movement and their experiences show stark differences between two countries that share the tenth longest
border in the world (Central Intelligence Agency, 2009). This study shows that the experiences of transnational
students are just as valuable as a research tool for global studies, their voices having given us a glimpse into their
lives, struggles, and successes in education between two different countries. Are these students ready to face the
future? Possibly. Have their educations prepared them for a high quality life? Uncertain.
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announcement promises to "encourage broader access to quality postsecondary education for traditionally underserved demographic groups,
especially in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM)
fields. They will also expand educational exchanges, increase joint research on
education and learning, and share best practices in higher education and
innovation." This is important as education exchanges between the US and
Mexico have stagnated or fallen for the past decade. What the presidents didn't say yesterday is that this is
something that needs to be fixed because it is a real problem. The numbers and quality of student exchanges between the two
countries are quite poor and have been for some time.
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2AC extension
The plan solves science diplomacy STEM and specifically
the exchange of students integrates government agencies
and foreign agencies together to improve scientific
dialogue. Specifically, science diplomacy programs with
Mexico and Latin America spill over because Latin America
is our window of opportunity to engage democratization
of knowledge thats Albornoz. Science Diplomacy solves
all of the impacts in this debate. Sackett indicates it
forms mutual governmental bonds which are critical to
tackle all global problems like ecosystems, disease,
energy security, food, water, war and warming.
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US SD Key
The US is a critical international beacon of scientific diplomacyinstitutions will engage with us.
Turekian 10 (Vaugh. Director, Center for Science Diplomacy, American
Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Keynote Address at USC Center
for on Public Diplomacy Conference, 2010.
http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/media/Science%20Diplomacy%20Proceedings.pdf,
Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
Dr. Vaughan Turekian began his keynote speech at the opening dinner of Science Diplomacy and the Prevention of
soft, and smart power , and the time is ripe for an emphasis on science
diplomacy. Turekian pointed out that the world appears to be becoming multipolar, with coalitions forming
around specific interests and issues. Nearly every major issue, whether global or
national in scale, features science and technology as either the underlying
cause or ultimate cure. In setting the context for the conference, Turekian noted that the United
States is currently, and for the foreseeable future will be, the worlds
major scientific center . Not only does the United States employ the most
scientists in major research areas, it also spends the most money,
produces the most publications, and is home to many of the worlds top
ranked research universities. However, the United States lead is
decreasing as other countries begin to see the potential for science to
boost economic growth and improve standards of living. Turekian went on to explain
his view of science diplomacy. Since science and diplomacy are two terms that may not always mesh coherently, he
found it useful to delineate the terms in three ways. First, science in diplomacy explains how science can help
identify and address many of the global and foreign policy issues we face today, as can be seen in the case of
climate change. Second, diplomacy for science occurs when the science community requires access to the
resources of other nations and must turn to the diplomatic community for assistance. The International
Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) serves as a prime example. Lastly, there exists science for diplomacy,
commonly known as science diplomacy, which Turekian defined as: the application of international science
cooperation, motivated by the desire to establish or enhance relationships between societies. Turekian addressed
the concept of access in science. Scientists desire access to tangible items such as counterparts, ideas, samples,
While the
science community may desire such tangible resources, the foreign policy
community is primarily interested in influence. Influence may include the
ability to affect how countries make decisions, how they develop, and how
foreign publics view the home country. Science diplomacy is the nexus of
funding, equipment, and machinery, which may only be obtainable through foreign cooperation.
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One
fundamental question asked during the hearing was why the United States should
support international science diplomacy rather than invest in domestic R&D. For the
United States to be competitive, according to Bush Administration witnesses, it needs to
know where the frontier of science is occurring. As other countries increase
their investment in higher education and R&D, the top science and engineering research and facilities may
not be in the United States, but in other countries. This increases the importance of U.S.
investment in international S&T diplomatic activities, said Bush Administration witnesses, including
federal programs that support U.S. scientists collaborations with foreign
scientists, and access to the best research facilities in the world, as well as
enhancing the international connections of U.S. science and engineering
students and leaders. In addition, U.S. science and engineering higher education and research helps
hearing examined global and domestic benefits from cooperation in science and technology.27
developing countries by enhancing their human resource capacity, and as a result, their ability to achieve long-term
development. These international connections can be important, said Bush Administration witnesses, not just for
those countries, but in helping the U.S. respond to global challenges such as infectious diseases such as avian flu.
Further, according to a Bush Administration witness ,
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A2 SD Inevitable
Well concede that Science Diplomacy is inevitable the
question is whether or not it is effective. Their examples
are all reasons why there needs to be better utilization of
Science Diplomacy, not why Science Diplomacy would fail
either way. The plan solves thats the Committee on
Science, Space and Tech 9 evidence it coordinates
federal scientists and agencies with other nations and
their scientists.
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SD Impact Sackett
Extinction is inevitable without scientific exchange and its
key to solving all other impacts.
Sackett 10 (Penny, former Chief Scientist for Australia, former Program Director
at the NSF, PhD in theoretical physics, the Director of the Australian National
University (ANU) Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 8/10, Science
diplomacy: Collaboration for solutions, published in the Forum for AustralianEuropean Science and Technology cooperation magazine,
http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2010/08/science-diplomacy-collaboration-forsolutions/, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
Imagine for a moment that the globe is inhabited by a single individual who roams free across outback plains,
through rainforests, across pure white beaches living off the resources available. Picture the immensity of the
world surrounding this one person and ask yourself, what possible impact could this single person have on the
planet? Now turn your attention to todays reality. Almost 7 billion people inhabit the planet and this number
increases at an average of a little over one per cent per year. Thats about 2 more mouths to feed every second. Do
these 7 billion people have an impact on the planet? Yes. An irreversible impact? Probably. Taken together this huge
number of people has managed to change the face of the Earth and threaten the very systems that support them .
irreversible, including the extinction of many species. But returning to that single individual, surely two things are
A single person could not have caused all of this, nor can a single person
solve all the associated problems. The message here is that the human-induced
global problems that confront us cannot be solved by any one individual, group,
agency or nation. It will take a large collective effort to change the course that we are on;
nothing less will suffice. Our planet is facing several mammoth challenges: to its atmosphere, to its
resources, to its inhabitants. Wicked problems such as climate change, over-population,
disease, and food, water and energy security require concerted efforts and
worldwide collaboration to find and implement effective, ethical and sustainable solutions. These are
no longer solely scientific and technical matters. Solutions must be viable in the larger
context of the global economy, global unrest and global inequality. Common
true.
understandings and commitment to action are required between individuals, within communities and across
international networks. Science can play a special role in international relations. Its participants share a common
language that transcends mother tongue and borders. For centuries scientists have corresponded and collaborated
on international scales in order to arrive at a better and common understanding of the natural and human
world.
These links can lead to coalitionbuilding, trust and cooperation on sensitive scientific issues which, when
supported at a political level, can provide a soft politics route to other
policy dialogues. That is, if nations are already working together on global
science issues, they may be more likely to be open to collaboration on
other global issues such as trade and security. Many countries have recognised the value of
international links are already in place at a scientific level.
science diplomacy.
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Berg 10/16/13 (Dirk Jan van den Berg, President of Delft University of
Technology. He was formerly Dutch Ambassador to China, and the United
Nations in New York, 10/16/13, Syria chemical weapons teams show how
science can boost peace, http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/opinion/opcwscience-peace, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
(CNN) -- The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded on October 11 to The
Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the body
overseeing the destruction of Syria's chemical arsenal. Since its
creation in 1993, OPCW has helped eliminate roughly 80% of world's
declared chemical stockpile -- a remarkable achievement.
The spotlight on OPCW underlines the role that science and
technology can play in driving groundbreaking diplomatic
breakthroughs . To be sure, this is not a fundamentally new idea. For
instance, the European Union, last year's winner of the Nobel Prize, has used
energy research to promote peace and prosperity on the continent since at
least 1957 when the EURATOM Treaty was signed.
Dirk Jan van den Berg
What is changing rapidly, however, is the potential for scientific
diplomacy to move beyond state-to-state contact to a much broader
array of actors . This is especially true of the science education community,
including higher education and research.
Science, in terms of research output and quality of higher education, is
becoming an increasingly key factor in international relations. It is now
playing a major role in tackling key global challenges, from climate change to
conflict resolution.
Indeed, in the case of Syria, science will not only help destroy the country's
stockpile of chemical weapons, but also played a major role in providing
irrefutable evidence that they were used in the first place. Remarkably,
technology now allows us to detect complex chemicals through satellite
measurements in areas where conflict is taking place, in addition to
computing the gases that enable these chemicals to be dispersed in the first
place.
Nobel head explains Peace Prize decision EXCLUSIVE - Inside the Syria
weapons lab EXCLUSIVE: Inside chemical weapons lab
To further catalyze the potential of science diplomacy, states should consider
endorsing the idea of "science immunity," an analogy with diplomatic
immunity which I know has so much value from my time as an ambassador.
Taking this bold move could lead to the creation of "science diplomatic
passports." This would allow properly accredited researchers to circulate
more freely, and without political interference, than is often the case due to
restrictive work and travel visa regimes.
This is important for at least two reasons.
Firstly, the decisive breakthroughs in science are increasingly being achieved
through international partnership and funding, and we must embrace this.
Take the example of the landmark discovery last year by Delft University of
the Majorana particle. This groundbreaking research, which heralds major
progress toward the development of the world's first quantum computer, was
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SD Impact Federoff
Science diplomacy solves the internal link to every major
impact resolves issues related to warming, resource
shortages, economies and public health
Federoff 8 (Nina Federoff, Penn State professor and Obama secretary of state
science and technology adviser, April 2 8. TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE SCIENCE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND SCIENCE EDUCATION
http://gop.science.h...l2/fedoroff.pdf)
The welfare and stability of countries and regions in many parts of the globe require
a concerted effort by the developed world to address the causal factors that render
countries fragile and cause states to fail. Countries that are unable to defend their people against
starvation, or fail to provide economic opportunity, are susceptible to extremist ideologies, autocratic rule, and
the national security of the United States, both directly and indirectly. Many are blind to political boundaries,
becoming regional or global threats. The United States has no monopoly on knowledge in a globalizing world and the
ability of states to supply their populations with sufficient food. The still-growing human population, rising affluence
in emerging economies, and other factors have combined to create unprecedented pressures on global prices of
staples such as edible oils and grains. Encouraging and promoting the use of contemporary molecular techniques in
crop improvement is an essential goal for US science diplomacy.
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Over the next thirty years, foreign policy will be increasingly shaped by the linked challenges of global
sustainability (Lee 2009). Professor John Beddington FRS, the UK Governments Chief Scientific Adviser, has warned
a perfect storm of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources,
which threaten to unleash public unrest, crossborder conflicts and mass migration
(Beddington 2009). Science will be critical to addressing these challenges , and the priority
of science in diplomacy should be to ensure the effective uptake of high quality
scientific advice by policymakers (NAS 2002). The scientific community must inform
policymakers with up-to-date information on the dynamics of the Earths natural and socio-economic systems.
Scientists must also identify where uncertainties exist, or where the evidence base is
inadequate (Royal Society 2005). Probably the best known example of a mechanism for informing policymaking
of
with scientific advice is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This was established in 1988 by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to provide the
world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences. The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, but reviews and produces periodic
assessments of recent scientific, technical and socio-economic research. Thousands of scientists from all over the
world contribute to its work on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, and differing
viewpoints within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. In December 2007, the IPCC was
awarded the Nobel Peace Prize (jointly with former U S Vice- President Al Gore) for their efforts to build up and
disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that
on International Issues (IAP), which represents over 100 of the worlds national academies of science, has published
on Arms Control and the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control
(CISAC) recently collaborated on the fi rst Chinese-English glossary of nuclear security terms to remove
barriers to progress in exchanges and diplomatic, cooperative, or other activities where unambiguous
receive scientific advice The effective use of scientifi c advice in diplomacy requires international policymakers to
have a minimum level of scientifi c literacy, or at least access to others who have it. It also requires scientists to
communicate their work in an accessible and intelligible way, which is sensitive to its wider policy context. Scientifi c
bodies can help to build this capacity: in the US, efforts to increase the number of scientists serving in the foreign
policy community include the Jefferson Science Fellowships, administered by the National Academies of Science, and
the Science Diplomacy Fellowships offered by the AAAS. Establishing and nurturing links between the scientific and
foreign policy communities informs scientists and policymakers alike: the former about the realities of policymaking;
and the latter about the role and limits of science in policy. Improving the scientifi c capacity of delegations from
developing countries is particularly important, especially for international negotiations on health and climate policy.
For example, health campaigners argue that offi cials from developing countries may lack the necessary expertise to
negotiate technical aspects of the international patent system. The same problem can apply in complex areas of
climate change policy. Scientific bodies can help to address these problems; a recent example being the partnership
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between the InterAcademy Panel and the European Climate Foundation, which convened workshops in Africa, Asia
and Latin America to prepare offi cials from countries in these regions in the run up to the 2009 COP-15 Copenhagen
climate change negotiations. In the UK, the Royal Societys MP-Scientist Pairing Scheme has been running since
2001.
[Randy. Staff Writer for the Vancouver Sun. Mass extinction due to high ocean acidity: Canadianled team solves biggest mystery in Earth history.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/technology/Mass+extinction+high+ocean+acidity+study/5377124/story.htm
l. September 9.]
A Canadian-led team of scientists may have solved the biggest whodunit in Earth history in a study showing that
the all-time greatest mass extinction on the planet - which wiped out about 90% of
all species 250 million years ago - appears to have been linked to rising levels of
ocean acidity. Researchers have long believed that massive volcanic eruptions in present-day Siberia - or
possibly a huge meteorite strike - triggered the so-called PermianTriassic extinction. But the precise mechanism of
death for so many species remains a subject of debate, with some scientists convinced it was a resulting lack of
the
study, headed by St. Francis Xavier University climate scientist Alvaro
Montenegro, points to ocean acidification as a possible "main culprit " in the
harrowing, prehistoric die-off. And the Nova Scotia researcher told Postmedia News that the finding
should serve as a warning about present-day increases in ocean acidification. Though
oxygen in the Earth's oceans or a greenhouse-gas nightmare that nearly ended all plant and animal life. But
Canadian
still far lower than that experienced in the ancient mass extinction, rising acidity has been documented by
researchers around the world and is linked to the effects of climate change. Using a series of computer simulations to
recreate conditions on the planet at the time, Montenegro and his five colleagues from Canada and Australia found it
unlikely that oxygen-starved oceans led to the mass extinction. Instead, their models pointed to a new prime
creatures that manufacture their own bodily structures from minerals found in ocean water. Among the species that
vanished from the rock record around the time of the P-T extinction were most of the ammonites - large, snail-shaped
marine creatures that are known today from the beautifully iridescent, multi-coloured fossils of their spiral shells,
found in places such as southern Alberta. The relatively few ammonite species that survived the mass extinction 250
million years ago were later killed off by the meteorite-linked extinction at the end of the dinosaur age 65 million
years ago.
deployments. The Arctic has figured in this renewed interest in Cold War weapons systems, particularly the upgrading of the Thule Ballistic Missile Early
Warning System radar in Northern Greenland for ballistic missile defence. The Canadian government, as well, has put forward new military capabilities to
protect Canadian sovereignty claims in the Arctic, including proposed ice-capable ships, a northern military training base and a deep-water port. Earlier this
year Denmark released an all-party defence position paper that suggests the country should create a dedicated Arctic military contingent that draws on
army, navy and air force assets with shipbased helicopters able to drop troops anywhere. Danish fighter planes would be tasked to patrol Greenlandic
airspace. Last year Norway chose to buy 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, partly because of their suitability for Arctic patrols. In March, that country
held a major Arctic military practice involving 7,000 soldiers from 13 countries in which a fictional country called Northland seized offshore oil rigs. The
manoeuvres prompted a protest from Russia which objected again in June after Sweden held its largest northern military exercise since the end of the
Second World War. About 12,000 troops, 50 aircraft and several warships were involved. Jayantha Dhanapala, President of Pugwash and former UN under-
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and have competing claims. These claims, together with those of other
allied NATO countries Canada, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway could, if unresolved, lead to
conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons . Many will no doubt argue
that this is excessively alarmist, but no circumstance in which nuclear powers find themselves
in military confrontation can be taken lightly. The current geo-political threat level is nebulous and low for
now, according to Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary, [ the] issue is the uncertainty as Arctic states
and non-Arctic states begin to recognize the geo-political/economic
significance of the Arctic because of climate change.
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SD Impact Exoplanets/LHC
Science diplomacy is critical to the Large Hadron Collider.
World STEM Works 13 (organization encouraging global scientific
developments and inter-governmental civil science, cites Royal Society and AAAS,
Science Diplomacy, http://worldstemworks.org/about-us/what-is-sciencediplomacy/, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi)
The British Royal Society and the American Association for the Advancement of
Science describe three major facets of science diplomacy in a 2010 journal focused on providing a
concise definition for the term science diplomacy. Science in diplomacy, science for diplomacy, and diplomacy for science are the
three pillars that provide a basis for science diplomacy. Science in diplomacy entails science informing and advising foreign policy,
the mysteries of the universe through reasoned approach, rigorous testing, and communal review and understanding. Diplomacy
seeks to bridge the gaps between the worlds communities, employing the pursuit of tolerance and understanding with the ultimate
goal of resolving common differences. Science diplomacy primarily seeks to bring these two concepts together so that each individual
aspect of their doctrines can enhance the others, and the execution of science diplomacy should never violate each of these
principles. However, science diplomacy is more than just its constituent parts. The parts each complement each other as to bring out
something even greater from the whole. Science diplomacys ultimate goal is the application of reason and dialog to problems that
the Large
Hadron Collider is a massive structure built as part of a collaborative effort
by 20 countries and millions of people. In and of itself, the LHC consists of
multiple smaller colliders, each linked together. And yet, this massive piece of equipment is
designed to explore only the tiniest realm known to man. The discoveries made there apply to each
and every human being and will bring changes so drastic that we are currently unable to
predict what they will be. The discoveries made at the LHC are only possible through
science diplomacy (most specifically through diplomacy for science), and the changes and
advancements wrought by it will provide not only a shining example of
human achievement in science, but also in collaboration and diplomacy.
intimately involve individuals yet present themselves as mountains only scalable by the collective. For instance,
Neither science nor diplomacy alone could achieve such feats as providing credible evidence to the existence of the Higgs Boson (the
so called God particle). Together, science and diplomacy have enabled the human race to delve deeply into the nature of the world
around us, to reach across borders and nationalities, and perhaps most importantly to delve deeply into ourselves. Through science
diplomacy, we can overcome any obstacle, bridge any chasm, and solve any problem. Through science diplomacy, we can take the
next step forward in our own betterment. Through science diplomacy, we can truly make a difference.
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now we're taking another look," said Tiziano Camporesi of CERN, noting wryly that dealing with the unknown was, well, unknowable. We
he LHC's particle collisions
transform energy into mass, the goal being to find fundamental particles in
the sub-atomic debris that help us to understand the Universe . At peak capacity, the "old"
LHC managed a mind-boggling 550 million collisions per second. CERN's
supercomputers are programmed to identify within microseconds the
collisions worth more analysis -- chunks of a few hundred per second -- before thousands of
physicists from across the globe comb the results to advance our
knowledge of matter. "We want to understand how that behaves, why it sticks itself together into tiny things that we
call atoms and nuclei at really small scales, into things that we call people and chairs and buildings at bigger scales, and then planets and solar
systems, galaxies at larger scales," said CERN's James Gillies. The Standard Model is a trusty conceptual
vehicle but it still lacks an explanation for gravity, nor does it account for dark matter and dark energy, which comprise most of
the cosmos and whose existence is inferred from their impact on ordinary matter. "Nothing in cosmology makes sense
without dark matter," says Michael Turner a theoretical cosmologist who coined the term " dark energy " and co-author of The Early Universe, the standard
textbook on particle physics and cosmology. "We needed it to form galaxies, stars and other
structures in the Universe. And so it's absolutely central to cosmology. We also know that none of the
and
always say that astronomers have an easier task, because they can actually see what they're looking for!" T
particles known to exist can be the dark matter particle. So it has to be a new particle of nature. Remarkably, our most conservative hypothesis right now is that the dark matter is a new
the evidence
for it comes from many different measurements: the amount of deuterium produced in the big bang, the cosmic
form of matter out there to be discovered and to teach us about particle physics." "Dark matter is absolutely central to cosmology, said Turner, "and
microwave background, the formation of structure in the Universe, galaxy rotation curves, gravitational lensing, and on and on." "There is five times more dark matter than ordinary
matter, and its existence allows us to understand the history of the universe beginning from a formless particle soup until where we are today," added Turner. "If you said, 'You no longer
Except, the problem is, it doesn't. It makes up around five percent of the Universe," said Gillies.
Mapping dark energy is THE key internal link to warp travelhard data proves.
Heather Catchpole, Science Editor of Cosmos Magazine, 8-18-08, Dark energy spacecraft could fly faster
than light, Cosmos Magazine. (http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/2141/dark-energy-spacecraft-could-fly-fasterlight?page=0%2C0)
A futuristic engine that uses dark energy to propel a spaceship faster than
light is theoretically possible, and could revolutionise space travel, U.S. scientists say.
Full speed ahead: Warp field according to the Alcubierre drive. Image shows the opposing regions of expanding
and contracting spacetime that propel the central region. Credit: Wikimedia SYDNEY: A futuristic engine that uses dark energy to
propel a spaceship faster than light is theoretically possible, and could revolutionise space travel, U.S. scientists say.
The
unlikely as it seems Like something from the world of Star Trek, their theory says that a spacecraft
could travel at warp speed in a bubble of space-time by manipulating
dark energy, the mysterious invisible force accelerating the expansion of
the universe (see, More evidence for dark energys repulsive power, Cosmos Online). The spacecraft would
essentially remain in the same place, they said, while space-time ahead of the
spaceship shrank, and expanded again behind it. The warp engine is based
on the Alcubierre warp drive, a mathematical model of a method of stretching space in a
wave that was first proposed by Mexican physicist Miguel Alcubierre in 1994. Think of it like a surfer riding
a wave, said Cleaver. The ship would be pushed by the spatial bubble and the bubble would be travelling faster than the
speed of light. The concept is based on new predictions emerging from string theory (a branch of theoretical physics which states
that reality is based on one-dimensional objects called strings). String theorists believe space has not three or four but 10
dimensions: height, width, length, time and others that are unknown (see, A way to see extra dimensions, Cosmos Online).
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Planets in habitable zones, planets orbiting twin suns, miniature solar systems, rogue planets, planets,
planets, planets. If there is one single piece of information you should take
away from the recent flood of incredible exoplanetary discoveries it is this: Our
universe makes planets with extraordinary efficiency if planets can form
somewhere, they will. Weve been sidling up on this fact for some time now, but its still a remarkable thing to acknowledge. Ten to fifteen years ago, as
the first exoplanet detections began to come in, we understood that what we were seeing was potentially just the tip of the iceberg. These were massive
objects (Jupiter sized or greater) and most of them were orbiting much closer to their parent stars than any equivalent giant planet in our solar system
stars harbored such worlds. Plot of exoplanet mass estimates versus year of discovery (generated from the online Extrasolar Planets Encyclopedia,
thanks to Jean Schneider). The object shown in 1989 is known as HD 114762b, and is open to some debate in terms of actual discovery date and planetary
classification as it may in fact be over 100 times the mass of Jupiter, nonethless it exists in this online compilation of exoplanetary data. Of course
time went by and astronomical instruments were refined, more and more
data was accumulated, and longer orbital period planets and less massive
planets were discovered. The figure to the left here illustrates the evolving range of planetary masses (or lower limits to planet
masses) as a property of the year of discovery for confirmed exoplanets (excluding the thousands of to-be-confirmed-candidates from NASAs Kepler
mission). Here in 2012 were dipping well and truly into Earth-sized planetary terrain (about 0.003 times the mass of Jupiter on this scale). By 2010
parent stars. And hot on the heels of these measurements new Doppler, or wobble, detections of exoplanets indicated that at least 1-in-4 normal stars
should harbor Earth-sized planets within about a quarter of the distance of the Earth from the Sun (0.25 AU). It was becoming increasingly apparent that
planets might be plentiful. Entering 2011 then the first big results from NASAs Kepler mission
began to make waves. With these came the statistical inference that the most numerous
types of planets orbiting within 1/2 an Earth-Sun distance (0.5 AU) were Neptune-sized worlds,
clocking in with a frequency of occurrence of about 17% (i.e. around 1 in every 6 stars). Close behind came Earth-sized objects, in about 6% of all systems.
interactions with other planetary chicks. The conclusion was that free-floating, wandering, objects as large, or larger than Jupiter,
outnumbered stars in our galaxy by almost 2 to 1. Its a remarkable result, but what about planets very much in the
grasp of their parent stars, the equivalent of our own solar system? Recently a new microlensing analysis by Cassan et al.
appeared in Nature that explicitly targets planets orbiting between about 0.5 and 10 AU from their parent stars. The results solidify and
carry forward all the measurements from before. About 17% of stars (give or take
several percent) harbor Jupiter mass planets, cool Neptunes exist around about 52% of stars and Super-Earths (5 to 10
times the mass of Earth) exist around roughly 62% of stars . Even with sizable errors in these estimates (as much as 2030%) the numbers are astonishing there are at least 1.6 planets orbiting from 0.5 to 10 AU for every star in the galaxy. Combine this with the Doppler
survey numbers (25% of stars with Earth-sized planets within 0.25 AU), the Kepler numbers (17% of stars with Neptunes orbiting within 0.5AU), and the
microlensing estimates of 2 rogue giant planets per star in the galaxy and you have, well you have an awful lot of planets.
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a repulsive anti-gravity force similar to dark energy that appears to expand the universe; the
other force would accelerate spacecraft without using any fuel . If the Heim idea
works, it will radically change space travel . Forget spending six months or more crammed in a rocket on
the way to Mars, a round trip on the hyperdrive could take as little as five hours.
Worries about astronauts muscles wasting away will disappear. Whats more , the device will put travel to
time: one,
the stars within reach for the first time. The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
awards prizes for the best papers presented each year. Last years winner went to a paper authored by physicist Jochem Hauser,
calling for experimental tests of Heims theory. This
help life spread from this planet and make the rest of the universe as
beautiful and varied as Earth , said legendary physicist Freeman Dyson. Dead worlds may be beautiful, just
as deserts may be beautiful, but worlds full of life will give birth to a far wider range of beauty. Princetons J. Richard Gott III
believes
extinct. Although Homo sapiens have been around for 200,000 years, there is no guarantee of survival if we remain only on
Earth. Colonies in space would provide insurance against catastrophes that
could obliterate life on a single planet.
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Einstein's light speed barrier, the chain that keeps us anchored to Earth, could be
broken, or so it seemed. But then, the European Organization for Nuclear Research discovered problems with their experiment
that meant that neutrinos probably didn't break the speed of light. Suddenly, we were Earth-bound again. However, NASA
plausible.
isn't giving up on faster-than-light travel just yet. While admitting that its mostly speculation at this
point, NASA believes that one day faster-than-light travel through the use of warp
drives might be possible. For those non-nerds among us, this is more the "Star Trek" version of space travel than
the "Star Wars" one, though they are similar. According to NASA scientists, it might be
possible to break the laws of special relativity with a ship shaped like a
sphere that could be placed between two regions of space-time, with one
expanding and one contracting. This requires matter with special properties and could break Einstein's law
because the ship isn't actually moving faster than light; space itself is being moved, and the ship is
simply falling through the hole called a wormhole it created . That
much had been worked out as early as 1994 by physicist Miguel Alcubierre. However, in
addition to the special matter, his plan also required energy equivalent to the mass-energy of the planet Jupiter. But NASA thinks it
might not need a planet-sized ship after all. NASA physicist Harold White recently presented a paper showing that by simply tweaking
the geography of the Alcubierre warp drive, it could achieve the same results in a ship about the size of NASA's Voyager 1 probe.
White is pushing out of the realm of the theoretical too, vowing to use lasers in his lab to demonstrate how the modified drive could in
the dream
of space travel is alive once again. While some folks might be thinking of booking flights to AlphaCentauri, I think I'll
fact perturb space-time by one part in 10 million. We may not be firing up the Falcon anytime soon, but at least
beat the rush and buy a ticket to the planet GJ 667c. With three visible suns, possibly lots of water and an untapped real estate
market, it looks like a nice place for a vacation home.
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2AC extension
US failure in STEM collapses overall technological
leadership. Potential adversaries are developing better
tech and deterrence capabilities. Tech superiority is the
basis for our military superiority and domestic economic
and manufacturing base. Research is what makes this all
happen its key to national security and resolves all
existential threats by creating globalization and
diplomatic capabiltiy thats Hummell 2k12. He has a
Ph.D. and is fellow at the Potamac Institute.
Independently, locking in tech leadership reduces conflict
tech transfer allows steady diffusion of cultural and
military influence rather than one-shot actions that
prevents power gaps and conflict solves transition wars
with rogue regimes.
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Plan Key
And, the plan is a long-term engagement strategy that provides
a platform for S&T leadership and U.S. Science Diplomacyk
Dolan 2k12 (Bridget M. Dolan, Science and Technology Agreements as
Tools for Science Diplomacy: A U.S. Case Study, Science & Diplomacy, Vol. 1,
No. 4 (December 2012), pg online @
http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/files/science_and_technology_agreements_a
s_tools_for_science_diplomacy_science__diplomacy.pdf)
As this paper has elaborated, U.S. decisions to enter into S&T agreements are often
motivated by the desire to transform a diplomatic relationship, promote public
diplomacy, enhance a diplomatic visit, and/or advance U.S. national security. An S&T agreement can
be a limited one-time deliverable or it can be a launching pad for
extensive engagement . While the discussions above have focused on drivers for S&T agreements from
the U.S. perspective,
partnerships .
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US Leadership Key
US nanotech leadership ensures international regulation,
resulting in controlled military nanotech
Vandermolen 2k6 (LCDR Thomas D. Vandermolen, USN (BS, Louisiana Tech University; MA, Naval War
College), is officer in charge, Maritime Science and Technology Center, Yokosuka, Japan. He was previously assigned
as a student at the Naval War College, Newport Naval Station, Rhode Island. He has also served as intelligence
officer for Carrier Wing Five, Naval Air Facility, Atsugi, Japan, and in similar assignments with US Special Operations
Command, US Forces Korea, and Sea Control Squadron THIRTY-FIVE, Air & Space Power Jounral, Molecular
nanotechnology and national security, pg online @
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj06/fal06/vandermolen.html //um-ef)
and do so
as soon as
rump of Czechoslovakia, and the democratic West woke up. Imagine the dictatorship of China suddenly invading Mexico! But the
Chinese strategists regard such a war as purely Western and old-fashioned (see Unrestricted Warfare). In a modern war (which,
ironically, the United States initiated by using nuclear weapons against Japan in 1945), a geostrategist confronts the enemy with
we
believe that the only responsible molecular nanotechnology is for the U.S.
government to launch a nanotech Manhattan Project on the basis of the Foresight Institute, with Eric Drexler, the founder of
annihilation or unconditional surrender. Let us now look at the article Responsible Nanotechnology. At the CSWD, Inc.,
nanotechnology, at the head of the Project. Incidentally, the Advisory Board of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology consists of
distinguished, gifted individuals who might become the core of the nanotech Manhattan Project. Great was my shock when I had
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read the article posted by or on behalf of CRN. Here are its eight scenarios of the future of mankind (which the article presents out
you know that China is as peaceful as the democratic West thought Germany was peaceful in 1938? Scenario 5. The same as
The leading
world powers take a close look at the first three scenarios we've described
[the article describes 4 after 6 and 5], decide to avoid them at all costs, and agree to work
together to avoid geopolitical meltdown. We at CRN believe that sovereign nations
ultimately may cooperate in this way, since the alternatives appear to
suck! Again, China is no problem even if China gets molecular manufacturing capability first. Surely China will not annihilate
the West even in this case, but will work together. What about the United States? Even [!] if the United States
gets molecular manufacturing capability first, and certain elements inside the government intend
to oppress the rest of the world with it, we can hope that other powerful entities in the U.S.
will be more sensible and influential. The above suggests that the form of government in the United
Scenario 6 but molecular manufacturing technology develops slowly, which is even better. Scenario 4.
States is much more dangerous for the world than that in China, the largest dictatorship in world history. Inside the U.S. government
certain elements may intend to oppress the rest of the world. Not inside the government of China, which presumably consists
of American liberal Democrats and peaceniks only. Scenario 3. Two or more competent nations develop molecular manufacturing
capability at about the same time. Fearing the potential military advantage this could provide for their adversary, they each begin
rapid and massive development of hideously powerful new weaponry. The resulting arms race is almost certain to be highly unstable,
for several reasons. This scenario can be considered an existential risk for the human race. Can you imagine the dictators of China,
hearing of existential risk for the human race? They will develop a severe depression, and the American doctors talking depression
on TV will have to treat them. Scenario 2 A major Asian nation achieves robust molecular nanotechnology manufacturing ahead of
anyone else, and as a result the U.S. becomes something of a backwater. As I was reading this, I could imagine only China in this
role. I guessed right! But never mind, for China (if it's them) could turn increasingly open/democratic as they continue to develop
economically and scientifically... isn't it? Of course! Remember how increasingly open/democratic Germany turned as it
developed economically and scientifically after 1933? If one knows nothing about a foreign country, he or she can well daydream
about its being open/democratic. Remember how President Roosevelt's spouse and his ambassador in Moscow admired and extolled