Test 10B

AP Statistics

Name:

Directions: Work on these sheets. Answer completely, but be concise. A normal probability table is
attached.
Part 1: Multiple Choice. Circle the letter corresponding to the best answer.
1. The value of z* required for a 70% confidence interval is
(a) -0.5244
(b) 1.036
(c) 0.5244
(d) 0.6179
(e) The answer cant be determined from the information given.
(f) None of the above. The answer is _____________________.
.
2. A significance test allows you to reject a hypothesis H0 in favor of an alternative Ha at the 5%
level of significance. What can you say about significance at the 1% level?
(a) H0 can be rejected at the 1% level of significance.
(b) There is insufficient evidence to reject H0 at the 1% level of significance.
(c) There is sufficient evidence to accept H0 at the 1% level of significance.
(d) Ha can be rejected at the 1% level of significance.
(e) The answer cant be determined from the information given.
.
3. A 95% confidence interval for the mean of a population is computed from a random sample
and found to be 9 3. We may conclude that
(a) There is a 95% probability that is between 6 and 12.
(b) There is a 95% probability that the true mean is 9 and a 95% chance the true margin of error is
3.
(c) If we took many, many additional random samples and from each computed a 95%
confidence interval for , approximately 95% of these intervals would contain .
(d) If we took many, many additional random samples and from each computed a 95% confidence
interval for , 95% of them would cover the values from 6 to 12.
(e) All of the above.
.
4. A 95% confidence interval for the mean reading achievement score for a population of third grade
students is (44.2, 54.2). Suppose you compute a 99% confidence interval using the same
information. Which of the following statements is correct?
(a) The intervals have the same width.
(b) The 99% interval is shorter.
(c) The 99% interval is longer.
(d) The answer cant be determined from the information given.
(e) None of the above. The answer is ______________________.
.

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5. Which of the following are correct?

I. The power of a significance test depends on the alternative value of the parameter.
II. The probability of a Type II error is equal to the significance level of the test.
III. Type I and Type II errors only make sense when a significance level has been chosen in
advance.
(a) I and II only
(b) I and III only
(c) II and III only
(d) I, II, and III
(e) None of the above gives the complete set of true responses.
.
6. In a test of H0: = 100 against Ha: 100, a sample of size 80 produces z = 0.8 for the value of
the test statistic. The P-value of the test is thus equal to:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)

0.20
0.40
0.29
0.42
0.21
two-tailed test 0.21*2 =0.42 (d) .

7. To assess the accuracy of a laboratory scale, a standard weight that is known to weigh 1 gram is
repeatedly weighed a total of n times and the mean x of the weighings is computed. Suppose the
scale readings are normally distributed with unknown mean and standard deviation
= 0.01 g. How large should n be so that a 95% confidence interval for has a margin of error
of 0.0001?
(a) 100
(b) 196
(c) 27061
(d) 10000
(e) 38416
.
8. A 95% confidence interval for is calculated to be (1.7, 3.5). It is now decided to test the
hypothesis H0: = 0 vs. Ha: 0 at the = 0.05 level, using the same data as was used to
construct the confidence interval.
(a) We cannot test the hypothesis without the original data.
(b) We cannot test the hypothesis at the = 0.05 level since the = 0.05 test is connected to the
97.5% confidence interval.
(c) We can only make the connection between hypothesis tests and confidence intervals if the
sample sizes are large.
(d) We would reject H0 at level = 0.05.
(e) We would accept H0 at level = 0.05.

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95% confidence interval (1.7, 3.5)

1.7 3.5
2.6
2

hypothesis test

margin of error = Z / 2
test statistic Z =

1.96
0.9
n
n

X 2.6 0

5.65
0.46
/ n

P-value = P(Z>5.65) * 2 = 0.000 (, two-tailed test)

P-value < 0.05 H0 reject (d) .
( confidence interval hypothesis test .)

Part 2: Free Response

Communicate your thinking clearly and completely.
9. A steel mills milling machine produces steel rods that are supposed to be 5 cm in diameter. When
the machine is in statistical control, the rod diameters vary according to a normal distribution with
mean = 5 cm and standard deviation = 0.02 cm. A large sample of 150 produced by the
machine yields a sample mean diameter of 5.005 cm.
(a) Construct a 99% confidence interval for the true mean diameter of the rods produced by the
milling machine. Follow the inference toolbox.
I assume that the sample is random and that the distribution is approximately normal
The pop of interest is the steel rods produced by the machines. Mu =5,l std.=.02
I will now estimate mu.
5.005+/- 2.576* (.02/root150)= (3.95335, 5.00921
Im 95% 99% confident that the true mean diameter of the rods are between (3.95335, 5.00921
.
.02
5.005 2.576
5.005 0.0042
150

(5.0008, 5.0092)

(b) Does the interval in (a) give you reason to suspect that the machine is not producing rods of the
correct diameter? State appropriate hypotheses and a significance level. Then explain your
conclusion.
H null: mu =5
H alternative: mu <5
H alternative: mu 5 (correct
.)
I will test at .05 significance level
(confidence level 99% significance level 0.01
.)
I divine H alternative as mu < 5 because the interval suggests that the machines may be producing
smaller rods
(5.005-5)/(.02/root150)= 3.06
P at 3.06 = .9989
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1-.9989= .0011
P-value = 2*0.0011 = 0.0022 (two-tailed test)
.0011< .05
because the p value is smaller, I reject H null and accept that the company is making
smaller rods
P value = 0.0022 < 0.01 H0 reject
(c) Describe a Type II error in the context of this problem. How could the manufacturer decrease
the probability of a Type II error.
Type two error: if the company believes that they make 5 cm diameter but aer actually producing
smaller rods.
Type II error Ha true , false .
, rod 5cm diameter (5cm) .
( )
10. A pharmaceutical manufacturer does a chemical analysis to check the potency of products. The
standard release potency for cephalothin crystals is 910. An assay of 16 lots gives the following
potency data:
897
918

914
906

913
895

906
893

916
908

918
906

905
907

921
901

Assume a population standard deviation = 8.2.

(a) Construct a 99% confidence interval for the population mean. Follow the Inference Toolbox.
I am finding the mu interval for all the cephalothin crystals. Mu = 910 std, =8.2
Assuming this is an SRS and that the sample distribution is approximately normal,
911.5 + / - 8.2/root 16 *2.576
= 906.2 ~ 916.8
I am 99% confident that the true potency of cephalothin is between (906.2 and 916.8)
sample mean = 907.75 . (911.5 )
confidence interval = sample statstics margin of error
margin of error = critical value * standard deviation
critical value = Z /2 Z.005 2.58

, interval

907.75 2.58

8.2
907.75 5.29
16

You want to test hypotheses about the mean population potency,

H 0 : = 910
H a : < 910
at the 1% level of significance. The z test statistic is z = x 910 8.2

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(b) What is the rule for rejecting H 0 in terms of z?

If 1 the corresponding z-score is less than the levl of significance, we reject H null
decision rule : p-value > significance level H0 accept
p-value < significance level H0 reject

x 910
907.75 910

P z
P z
P ( z 1.096) 0.1365

8.2
/
16
8.2 / 16

p-value = 0.1365 (one-tailed test) significance level 0.01 H0 accept

(c) What values of x would lead you to reject H 0 ?
(X -910) / (8.2/ root 16) < .2.325
X< 905.234
significance level 0.01
P( Z<-2.326)=0.01

x 910
2.326 x 905.232
8.2 / 16

(sign !)

(d) Describe a Type I error in the context of this problem. What is the probability of a Type I error?
When I accept H alternative, the statement that potency, is < 910 when H null, the statement that mu =
910, is actually true
Significance level alpha is always the probability of type 1 error
Probability of type 1 error =.01
Type I error : H0 true reject .
significance = probability of Type I error

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