BES Tutorial Sample Solutions, S1/13

WEEK 5 TUTORIAL EXERCISES (To be discussed in the week starting

April 8)
1. The manager of a factory has determined from past experience that X, the
number of repairs required to machines in her factory on any one day, has
the following probability distribution:
x
P(X = x)

0.41

0.25

0.18

0.10

0.06

Calculate the following:

(a)

P(1 < X < 4)

P(1 < X < 4) = P(X=2)+P(X=3) = 0.18+0.10 = 0.28

(b)

P(0 X 3)

P(0 X 3) = P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3) = 1-P(X=4) = 0.94

(c)

E(X)

0
(d)

0.41

0.25

0.18

0.1

0.06

1.15

Var(X)

1.15
x

P(X = x|x>0)

0.41
3 1.15

1.15
0.25
0.10
4 1.15

1.15
0.18
0.06 1.5075

0.42

0.31

0.17

0.10

2. Suppose that the daily number of errors a randomly-selected teller makes is

denoted by X and follows the distribution given in the table below. A
human resource manager records the daily numbers of errors of two
randomly selected tellers. Denote the associated random variables by X1
and X2. As the selection is random, X1 and X2 are independent and follow
the same distribution as X. The manager then computes the sample mean
where the sample size is n = 2.
x

P(X = x)

0.6

0.2

0.2

(a) Find the mean and variance of X1 and. Explain why we do not need to
find the mean and variance of X2 once we know those of X1?
0.6;

0.64

The mean and variance of X2 are the same because they have identical
distributions.
(b) As X1 and X2 are random so is . Find the mean and variance of .
Compare these with the result from (a) and comment. Hint: you will find
0 because X1 and X2 are
,
it useful to note that
independent. This simplifies the evaluation of variance of .
0.6

1
4

1
4

0.32

The means of and X are the same and variance of

dividedby2(thesamplesize).
(c)

is the variance of X

Find the possible values that may take. Hence list the probability
distribution of for samples of size 2. (This is known as the sampling
distribution of ).

Ifn=2possiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.
2

Weknowpossiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.Nowneedtoassign
probabilities to each outcome to produce the probability distribution for the
samplemean.

0,
0
0.6 0.6 0.36
Forexample
0

Thefollowingtablelistsallpossibleoutcomesandassociatedprobabilities:
,
0,0
0,1
0,2
1,0
1,1
1,2
2,0
2,1
2,2

1
3/2
1
3/2
2

Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:

0
1/2
1
0.36
0.24
0.28
)
(d)

Probability
0.36
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.04
0.04
0.12
0.04
0.04

3/2
0.08

2
0.04

Examine briefly what would happen if n =3, 4, ? (You will need to

use the ideas of a factorial of an integer n, labelled !, which means n
multiplied by every positive integer smaller than itself so, for
example, 3! 3 2 1 6, and the combinatorial formula that the
number of ways of selecting x from n distinct objects is
!/
! !.)

If n=3 possible values are 0, 1/3, 2/3, 1, , 2. E.g.

0.6 . 0.2.
Thisarisesbecausethemeancanonlybe1/3if2tellersmakenoerrorsand1
makes1errorandthecombinatorialformulaisusedtocountthefactthatthe
tellerwith1errorcanbethefirst,thesecondorthethird.

Asnincreasesgetafinergridofvaluesbetweenextremesof0and2.
3

3. A student has taken three courses in this semester. Lets call them courses
A, B and C. Her chances of passing each course are 0.8, 0.65, and 0.5,
respectively. Passing each course is assumed to be independent of passing
other courses. Answer the following:
(a) Define a random variable for each course outcome.
A=0(failA)&A=1(passA)
B=0(failB)&B=1(passB)
C=0(failC)&C=1(passC)
(b) What is the probability that this student passes exactly two courses?
P(passingtwocourses)=P(passA&BbutfailC)+P(passA&CbutfailB)+
P(passC&BbutfailA)=0.8 0.65
1 0.5
0.8 0.5
1 0.65
0.65 0.5
1 0.8
0.465
(c) What is the probability that this student fails at least one course?
P(failingatleastonecourse)=1P(passingallcourses)
1 0.8 0.65 0.5 0.74
(d) How reasonable is the assumption of independence?
Independenceislikelytobeanunreasonableassumption.Resultsarelikelytobe
dependent(strongpositiveassociation).

4. Let X be the number of heads in 4 tosses of a fair coin.

(a)What is the probability distribution of X?
x=0,1,2,3,4.Nowneedallpossiblecombinationsthatwillproduceeach
oftheseoutcomes.

n
Cxpossiblecombinationsovern=4tosses.Equivalentnotation
ValueofX
usedinlectureswas
0
(TTTT)[4C0=1]
1
(HTTT)(THTT)(TTHT)(TTTH)[4C1=4]
2
(HHTT)(HTHT)(HTTH)(THHT)(THTH)(TTHH)[4C2=6]
3
(THHH)(HTHH)(HHTH)(HHHT)[4C3=4]
4
(HHHH)[4C4=1]

Eachofthesecombinationsareequallylikelybecauseonanytossofafair
coinP(H)=P(T)=0.5&wereassumingoutcomesareindependent

P(TTTT)=P(HTTT)=.=P(HHHH)=(0.5)4=0.0625

Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:

0
1
2
3
4

0.0625
0.25
0.375
0.25
0.0625
(b)
E(X)

Var(X)

What are the mean and variance of X?

=
=
=
=

0+10.25+20.375+30.25+40.0625
2
(2)20.0625+(1)20.25+0+(1)20.25+(2)20.0625
1

(c)Consider a game where you win $5 for every head but lose $3 for every
tail that appears in 4 tosses of a fair coin. Let the variable Y denote the
winnings from this game. Formulate the probability distribution of Y from
that of X.

ThegeneralformulafordeterminingYfromXisY=5X3*(4X)so,when
X=0,youlose12andsoon.Hence

12

P(Y=y)
(d)

0.0625

4
0.25

4
0.375

12
0.25

20
0.0625

What is the expected value of Y? Would you like to play this game? If
so why? If not why not?

Directlyfromtheformulagiveninpart(c)wehave,inthefollowingtable,

E(Y) = 5E(X)3[4E(X)]

= 1012+6=4
or
E(Y) = 120.062540.25+40.375+12.025+200.0625

= 4,
wherethelattercalculationcomesdirectlyfromtheprobabilitydistributionofY
givenabove.(Thetwoevaluations,ofcourse,givethesamevalue!)

If you play the game enough times you would expect to win $4 per game on
average.Thusthisisnotafairgame(whereexpectedreturnsarezero)butitis
biasedtowardstheplayerunlikegamesincasinoswhereexpectedwinningsare
negative.

Notice on any one play of the game you still might lose money and hence
someone who is extremely risk averse might not want to play the game even
thoughonaverageovermanyplaysofthegametheyshouldwin.