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TO:

FROM:
Date:
RE:

Interested Parties
Brock McCleary, President
July 27, 2015
Key Poll Findings Virginia Senate District 36 Survey

Our survey of likely voters in Virginias Senate District 36 finds a tight race that closely reflects the generic ballot,
with Democratic Delegate Scott Surovell leading Republican Dumfries Mayor Jerry Foreman, 45-43%.
McAuliffe Strong, Generic Ballot Tight
Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe is viewed favorably by a significant 54% majority of likely voters in Senate
District 36 (32% unfavorable). He is viewed favorably by two-thirds of voters in Fairfax County (66% favorable)
and 45% of Prince William County voters and Independents. However, a generic Democrat only leads a
Republican by 2% on the generic ballot for State Senate (47-45%). Democrats have a lead on the generic ballot in
Fairfax County (35% Republican-61% Democrat) while Republicans hold an advantage in Prince William County
(53-35%). Independents prefer a Republican (48-34%).
Surovell vs. Foreman
Scott Surovell leads Jerry Foreman by 2% on the Senate
ballot test (45-43%, 12% not sure). Foreman holds a
lead in Prince William (53-32%) and Stafford (50-42%)
counties while Surovell leads in Fairfax County (5931%). Foreman receives strong support from
Republicans (82%). Foreman takes the lead among
Independents (41-33%).

12%

Foreman

43%

Surovell

45%

Not sure

Message Testing
The survey demonstrates that a variety of Jerry Foremans accomplishments and characteristics resonate well
with voters, especially independent voters who will ultimately determine the outcome of the race.
"Please tell me whether each statement makes you more likely or less likely to vote for Jerry
Foreman..."
During his time as a Councilman and Mayor of Dumfries,
Jerry Foreman refused to accept a taxpayer-funded
salary, and instead returns it to the budget.
As a local mayor, Jerry Foreman reduced property taxes
by 50% and eliminated fees on local businesses to help
the economy and create jobs.

42
47

Foreman passed ethics reforms that make local


government more open, accessible and transparent.

Much morelikely

121 State Street


Harrisburg, PA 17101

HarperPolling.com

64

45

64
72

More likely

info@HarperPolling.com

Summary
Despite Governor McAuliffe's strong numbers, the race for the Senate in District 36 is highly competitive. The
survey data demonstrates that Jerry Foremans record as a 25-year veteran with a record of service and a small
town Mayor with a track record of getting things done provides a strong contrast with Delegate Scott Surovell.
Demographics
The surveys demographics reflect historical voter turnout data. Self-identified Democrats made up 40% of
survey respondents, with Republicans making up 33% of the sample. Likely voters not affiliating with either
major party comprised the remainder. Fifty-two percent of survey participants were from Prince William County,
based on their address on file, with 43% from Fairfax County and 5% from Stafford County. Women made up
53% of the sample and men made up 47%. The age breakdowns were as follows: 18-39: 10%, 40-54: 28%, 55-65:
30%, 66 or older: 33%. Sixty-seven percent of the sample was white, 17% African-American, 5% Asian, 5%
Hispanic or Latino and 6% identified as something else.
METHODOLOGY
The sample size for the survey is 400 likely voters in Virginia Senate District 36 and the margin of error is +/-4.9%. Reponses were gathered
through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted July 14-15, 2015 by Harper
Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

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