Amateur Expert en

The Amateur-Expert Traveller
Three important trends in travel which

are being accelerated by the recession
Content
Foreword, by Ian Wheeler
>
New destinations
>
The rise of the BRIC economies
Building the brand in the online world
The Responsive Journey
>
Technology and the total trip experience
>
Waiting for mobile
12
>
Looking further into the future
14
>
but its so much nicer to [stay] home?
15
The consumer booking experience
16
All Niches Great and Small
18
Appendix
22
Foreword, by Ian Wheeler
started during the Great Depression; Microsoft and The Gap Limited
were founded during more recent recessions. Indeed, in some ways,
recessions make starting new businesses easier there is a larger
number of talented people looking for work, suppliers are more
open to negotiation and customers may be more open to trying a
new product or service that promises cost savings.
Niall Ferguson, a financial historian at Harvard University, draws a
similar parallel between biological and business evolution: often,
the real drivers [of financial history] are the process of speciation when new types of company are created - and the equally recurrent
process of creative destruction - whereby weaker companies die
out or, more commonly, get eaten. 2
In this paper, we describe three broad trends influencing the travel
industry today increasingly expert customers, the ever more
technological trip experience and the growth of niche travel
that we believe are being accelerated by the current downturn.
To reach these findings, we interviewed thirty leading executives
and thought-leaders in the travel industry and polled 2,719 travel
professionals worldwide about a series of key trends in the travel
industry. We then conducted extensive desk research to understand
how these trends might be affected by the recession.
The amateur-expert traveller: the Internet has put much more

information at the fingertips of the average traveller whether from
professionally produced content or user reviews and other social
media. With business and personal budgets squeezed, the incentive
to put all that knowledge to good use has never been greater.
The responsive journey: technology has improved the booking
experience immeasurably but the trip itself remains ripe for
technological innovation. Such innovation may be provided by
talented executives using the recession as an opportunity for a
change in direction.
In the summer of 2007, as the first cracks in Wall Streets mighty
financial edifice began to appear, a natural disaster was already well
under way on the other side of the United States. Millions of acres
of the American West were ablaze in what would turn out to be the
second most destructive summer of forest fires since records began
in 1960 1. On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Forest Fire
Information System called July 2007 the worst on record.
Forest fires, like recessions, are both painful and tragic. In this report,
we have tried to look beyond the immediate devastation of the
credit crisis and ensuing global recession, to the future. We have
tried to look at the trends and innovations which might flourish in
the post-recessionary environment.
Recessions and even depressions do not always smother
innovation as much as we are sometimes told. Hewlett-Packard,
Geophysical Service (now Texas Instruments), Polaroid and Revlon all
All niches great and small: travel companies will increasingly look
at opportunities in travel niches or selling niche travel services or
additional offer opportunities for additional revenue as well as
higher margins for in-depth expert advice.
Just as forest fires form an important part of the regeneration
process, we believe that the current recession will clear the way for a
fresh burst of innovation in the travel industry.
Ian Wheeler
Group Vice President, Marketing & Distribution, Amadeus
www.amadeus.com
The Amateur-Expert
Traveller
Towards the late 1990s doctors began to notice a curious trend: increasingly, patients
knew almost as much about their illnesses as their doctors did3 , who, after all, have the
benefit of years of university study.
This is the result of two factors: as people live longer, more
suffer from long-term illness meaning that people live with their
condition for years whereas doctors have merely studied it. The
medical industry has dubbed these the Expert Patient. Second,
the Internet has given patients more access to information and
helped them to diagnose their condition. This has given rise to
participatory medicine, in which the rational relationship between
an all-knowing doctor and a dutifully passive patient is replaced
by a team which includes a knowledgeable and actively engaged
patient, specialized social networks, and clinical researchers in a
collaborative relationship of mutual respect4 .
Just as the Internet has empowered patients with knowledge, social

networks, user-reviews and other Internet resources have, and will
continue to, devolve to travellers the power of knowledge. Over
the next ten years, half of the experts in our panel expect to see a
major change in travellers level of knowledge about their travel
options (see chart).
The corollary to this is that half of our experts expect a similarly

significant change in the level of service which travellers will
demand over the next ten years. This is partly a function of a
customer service arms race in which travel companies compete to
give better customer service, which in turn sets a higher expectation
among customers. The challenge there is, the more you give the
customers the more they demand, as Paul Ellerby of easyCruise
puts it. A smaller but still significant proportion of our experts
expect travellers to become less likely to seek professional advice in
the future.
Something similar is happening in the travel industry. The current

recession notwithstanding, travel has increased enormously over
the past 10 to 15 years. Similar to someone with a long-term illness
though, one hopes, not suffering quite as much the frequent
traveller will often know more about their destination and how best
to get there than a travel agent. This applies as much to business as
it does to leisure travel.
Looking to the future, to what extent do you think consumer behaviour will change over the next 10 years in each
of the following ways?
More knowledgeable about options
50%
More demanding in terms of service
50%
Less likely to seek professional offline advice
Major change
Reasonable change
25%
Slight change
43%
7%
36%
50%
No change
14%
11%
14%
Don`t know
(Expert interviews: Base: all responding: 28)
New destinationsDescription
Travellers are expected to become more adventurous in the future

too. This makes sense: if fore-warned is fore-armed, then more
knowledgeable travellers will feel more confident about travelling to
places about which, previously, there was little information.
According to the UN World Tourism Organisation 5 growing demand

for new and unusual destinations continues despite the broader
recessionary trend of falling global visitor numbers. Globally,
international tourism declined by 8% between the first four months
of 2008 and the first four months of 2009; but tourism to Africa
increased by 3% over the same period, driven by North Africa (+6%)
and the return of tourism to Kenya following unrest in 2008.
Organisation, the current top three travel destinations globally

are France, Spain and the United States. Although our panel do
not expect a major shift, they do anticipate that China is likely to
become a major travel destination. Asked what they think the top
three destinations will be in 2020, most popular choices were the
USA (76%), France (66%) and China (52%). Spain was relegated to
fourth position (28%).
Indeed, according to Gerard Bellino, a vice president at Carlson

Wagonlits leisure division, quoted in Business Week, the recession
may even be accelerating the growth in travel to non-traditional
destinations: People are taking advantage of a down market for
things they may have had to save more and longer for in the past. 6
Perhaps unsurprisingly, China also looks set to benefit from
changing patterns of tourism. According to the World Tourism
Looking to the future, to what extent do you think consumer behaviour will
change over the next 10 years in each of the following ways?
29%
More travel abroad

More adventurous
25%
More cost-conscious
25%
More short-term booking ahead
Major change
11%
Reasonable change
43%
14%
29%
21%
43%
Slight change
29%
29%
7% 7%
14% 4%
21%
29%
No change
4%
11% 7%
Don`t know
The rise of the BRIC economies
Not only will the traveller of the future be more knowledgeable

and more willing to try new destinations, they will increasingly
arrive from different countries too, as the growing middle classes of
developing economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC),
lead to an increase in tourism from those countries.
Developing countries are playing a growing role as a source of
tourists and business travellers. Tourism from China grew by an
average of 27% a year between 2002 and 2008 7 . Each year, the
world receives 45 million tourists from China that is more than the
entire population of Spain, the worlds second most popular tourist
destination 8 . Between 2000 and 2007, Russian outbound tourist
numbers increased by 9.4% a year and the money spent in foreign
countries by Russian tourists increased by 14% each year over the
same period. In 2007, Russia was the 9th largest outbound tourism
market 9 .
Eye-popping statistics about growth and opportunity in emerging
markets especially Brazil, China, India and Russia have been a
staple of management consultants and journalists for much of the
21st century. So far, though, this has been a pre-recessionary story.
Will the growth in developing economies continue through and
beyond the recession?
The story is mixed, but overall the recession may well accelerate
the global economys shift Eastwards. While the current recession
is undoubtedly global, its effect is not equal. Generally-speaking,
Western economies have been pushed into reverse whereas the
BRIC countries have merely had hitherto spectacular growth rates
clipped. The International Monetary Fund 10 expects the economies
of the United States and Europe to contract by 1.6% and 2.0%
respectively in 2009. The economies of China and India, by contrast,

are expected to grow by only 6.7% and 5.1% in 2009.
As Western households rein in spending and rediscover the
virtue of living within their means, Chinese consumers are taking
full advantage of their higher savings rates and an enormous
government stimulus package. Consequently, excluding Sports
Utility Vehicles, almost as many cars have been sold in China as in
America in 2009 11 . In 2006 Americans bought twice as many. In the
airline sector, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern posted
16%, 25% and 6% growth in revenue per passenger kilometre on
domestic Chinese routes for the first four months of 2009 12 .
The growing importance of non-Western cultures in the make-up
of the worlds travellers has very real consequences for the travel
industry. An Amadeus-sponsored Economist Intelligence Unit survey
published in early 2009 found Asian business travellers to be more
influenced by the respectability of a hotels brand than Europeans or
North Americans.
With more travellers taking more, longer and more adventurous
trips, increasing numbers of travellers from the emerging economies
and the all-pervasive impact of the Internet on the travel experience,
it will become an increasingly global marketplace, breaking down
geographical boundaries. In this context, customers will need to
be segmented across new lines. An 18-year-old male from China
may have more in common with an 18-year-old male from the US
than with a 40-year-old male from his own country. Over 80% of
our expert panel accept this proposition, most of them strongly
agreeing.
Key findings
> The Amateur-Expert Traveller is much more knowledgable about
his or her destination and what to expect when they get there.
Their expectations of service have diverged: they either expect a
totally touchless online experience or they expect a very high level of
personalised service.
> The Amateur-Expert Traveller is more adventurous about trying new
destinations. Africa and Asia are more accessible and popular than ever.
> The North Americans and Northern Europeans who have traditionally
dominated the travel industry will increasingly make way for Brazilian,
Russian, Indian and Chinese tourists and business travellers.
Building the brand in the online world
online brands take a larger

As more business goes online and
ket, the relationship of travel
and larger share of the travel mar
becomes more fragile.
companies with their customers
edge that it is harder to
Most of our expert panel acknowl
was offline. Marilu Ngo, of
build brand loyalty online than it
nes sums it up thus, In the
Griffin Sierra Travel in the Philippi
ent, customer loyalty is
proliferation of user-generated cont
ronment because now, it is
inadvertently lost in the online envi
mostly price-driven.
uld you say that

Compared to the offline world, wo
ine world is
building brand loyalty in todays onl
easier or harder?
10%
Much easier
3%
7%
A bit easier
The same
40%
A bit harder
40%
tation of the market, the

They cite the increased fragmen
accessible to the customer,
wide number of options readily
s, the volume of userthe loss of personal relationship
price competitiveness.
generated comment and greater
at Forrester Research,
According to Henry Harteveldt,
to discover options that
It is so much easier for people
much easier for them to
they may not be aware of. It is
others opinions and be
share their opinions and to read
the Internet to find new
swayed by them, and then to use
options.
most important factors
According to our panel, the two
ther online or offline,
in building an effective brand, whe
promise and delivery and
are consistency between brand
. Word of mouth and
the quality of the user experience
red to be marginally
side
con
effective promotion are both
an emotional
ding
buil
more important online, whereas
more
be
to
ght
connection with the brand is thou
important offline.
h of the
How important would you say eac
e brand in
following is in building an effectiv
online and
todays travel industry for both
all responding: 30)
offline? (Expert interviews: Base:
Much harder
onding: 30)
(Expert interviews: Base: all resp
Consistency between brand

promise and product delivery
Quality of user experience
Peer-to-peer word of mouth
Effective brand and product promotion
Average score based on

nt,
scale 5 = vital, 4 = very importa
very
3 = fairly important, 2 = not
at all
nt
orta
important, 1 = not imp
Emotional connection with the brand

1
Online
2
Offline
over its
control a company has
r-reviews actually reduce the
use
product
er
and
eth
wh
of
ice
n
stio
serv
que
the
the
the brand in terms of
of
ts
par
er
We explored in our interviews
oth
e
Th
ia,
r
Ind
in
use
For Mr Shringi,
uv Shringi at Yatra.com
tent just reflects these factors.
con
own brand. According to Dhr
ed
erat
gen
e
r
com
use
out
The
.
an
trol
companys con
ed content is just
are still very much within the
trol the others, the user generat
con
can
y
pan
com
the
if
o
s
cause,
reviews are a symptom, not a
ch of an impact.
mu
too
e
hav
lly
rea
t
won
and
nds
quality and expectations of bra
are a positive force, driving up
ews
revi
d
ate
st
ner
Mo
.
r-ge
view
use
t
this
tha
ect
eve
generally refl
Most of our expert panel beli
ing part in the online survey
than
nd reputation (13%). Those tak
bra
to
at
thre
a
travel agencies (39%). Fewer
n
ine
tha
er
onl
rath
and
)
(73%),
y positive vs. 27% overall
ver
as
it
see
%
(42
ies
pan
so (25%).
positive are the car rental com
agencies are more likely to do
at, although the offline travel
thre
a
as
it
ard
reg
five
in
one
3%
ed content with respect

How do you see user-generat
to your brand?
16%
27%
Very positive 27%

Moderately positive 55%
onding: 2,646)
Moderate threat 16%
(Online survey: Base: all resp
Severe threat 3%
55%
rs are going to get into the

I think that the travel provide
k theyre going to let their
review business as well. I thin
on
share the demographic data
customers read a review and
customers.
the reviews with their other
Brian Harniman, Kayak, USA
e even more pressure to

I think that hoteliers will hav
to ensure that a customer still
upgrade their experiences and
er has that much more of an
comes to them, when a custom
erience in advance.
ability to understand the exp
rs, UK
Alan Josephs, formerly ebooke
The Responsive
Journey
Technologys impact has largely been concentrated around searching for, and booking, the
journey, not the journey itself. That, according to our panel, is about to change.
The 1987 film, Planes, Trains and Automobiles, tells the story of Neal Page, an uptight advertising executive, trying to get home to see his
family in Chicago for Thanksgiving after a business trip in New York. Among the many absurd misfortunes which turn a 1 hour 45 minute
flight into a three day epic, he suffers a downgrade from business to economy, a diverted then cancelled flight, an awful motel room, an
abortive train journey and an irritating travel companion. Despite the considerable impact of technology on the travel experience, the story
is no less plausible today.
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the elements included in the statement?
Technology hasnt changed what the
consumer experiences on a journey
17%
41%
That`s about to change
Totally agree
Partially agree
45%
Neither
14%
34%
Partially disagree
24%
3%
14%
7%
Totally disagree
Technology and the total trip experience

Technology offers significant immediate opportunities to improve the customer experience before,
during and after a trip. The travel professionals on our expert panel acknowledge that this will generate
additional revenue and 79% agree that it will solve the problem of online customer loyalty.
To what extent would you agree or disagree with the following statements from your own perspective?
Services beyond the booking stage will
generate further revenue
Services beyond the booking stage will
solve the problem of online customer loyalty
Completely agree
Agree to some extent
69%
34%
Neither
28%
45%
Disagree to some extent
3%
3% 7% 10%
Completely disagree
10
Technology and the total trip experience Description
According to our panel, the opportunities

are most evident in researching the trip,
finding price and availability information
and booking the trip.
If the industry is to make the most of
these opportunities, then it will have to
embrace new technology solutions that will
help to make the travel experience more
comfortable, secure and personalised for the
traveller the humanisation of technology.
With the pace of technological change
accelerating, our expert panel feel that
the impact will be greatest for those tools
which particularly address the issues around
poor user experience, making the online
experience more personalised and easier to
use.
Foremost among these are likely to be more
sophisticated customer information systems
which select destination information based
on customer preferences, and intuitive
interfaces, which will provide new ways to
interact with computing devices, such as
next-generation touch-screens and voice
interaction. Nearly one-third also anticipate
the role that virtual reality may play in
humanising the travel experience.
Looking ahead, to what extent would you say each of the following
elements offers an opportunity for technology to improve the customer
experience before, during and after a trip in the immediate future?
Researching the trip
66%
Finding price / availability information
17%
52%
34%
14%
Booking a trip
48%
Researching / choosing hotel
45%
Choosing destination
45%
38%
10% 7%
Comparing price information
41%
38%
17%
Acitivities upon return
Major opportunity
38%
7% 7%
52%
21%
Reasonable opportunity
3%
41%
31%
Slight opportunity
None / D.K.
3%
7%
Which of the following will have the biggest impact on humanising the
travel experience? (Expert interviews: Base: all responding: 29)
55%
Personalised destination information
But the Internet is a continually evolving

phenomenon, and, even in mature markets,
the likes of Web 2.0, social networking and
mobile technology continue to be drivers of
growth. Our expert panel predict that, by
2020, technology will have brought about
significant improvements in capabilities for
travel providers, sellers and consumers in all
areas of the travel industry in particular,
the ability of travel sellers to make more
travel options available to the public and the
ability for consumers to share information
about travel providers with other consumers
both themes picked up in other places
throughout this research.
10% 7%
Intuitive interfaces
41%
Virtual reality
28%
Geo-localisation technologies
21%
Tailored loyalty programmes
17%
Social computing
17%
Digital concierge
14%
Digital identities
7%
Sensory airport / airline systems
7%
The Amateur-Expert Traveller 11
Thinking ahead to 2020, what would you say the further impact of technology will be on the following
Ability of travel sellers to make more
travel options available to the public
31%
Ability for consumers to share information

about travel providers with other consumers
Ability for travel providers and sellers to make pricing
and availability information available to the public
59%
28%
10%
66%
10%
3% 3%
76%
10% 3%
Ability for consumers to find information

about the quality of travel providers products
7%
79%
14%
Ability of travel providers to manage the

logistics of travel better
7%
79%
7% 7%
Ability for independent travel providers

and sellers to increase market share
Improve beyond all recognition
14%
Improve a lot
41%
Improve a little
38%
7%
Hardly / not at all

Nearly all of our expert panel agree that Web 2.0 improves
information transparency a lot (69%) or a little (28%), although
one disagrees, believing that it actually makes information less
transparent. Around 80% of them have already added or are
considering adding social computing or user review functionality to
their own websites. Airlines are perhaps a little behind others, but
they too are generally considering taking this step.
Without exception, our experts agree that Web 2.0 will improve
the customers travel experience between now and 2020, whether
beyond recognition (17%), a lot (59%) or a little (24%). In
particular, they see Web 2.0 as an answer to user experience issues
which may be hindering the growth of online travel services.
Primarily, it will give the user more and better information that will
be better organised, easier and faster to access and more interactive,
leading to greater satisfaction with the whole online experience.
There will be a dramatic change in the way the content is searched
and organised. It is still extremely hard for customers to find
content, define content easily and to actually use it. Going forward,
all these factors will change tremendously and it will be very
easily accessible. The technology will add a lot of value in terms of
how data gets collated and presented to the end consumer. (Dhruv
Shringi, Yatra.com, India)
Some also point to the increased opportunities to personalise
and select the information that is most relevant to the users own
circumstances and to share experiences. According to Timir Bhose
and Pia Viljaniemi of Finnair, reading user reviews, supports better
pre-planning so that the customer will be able to plan better ahead
and get more knowledge about other customers opinions.
As with many of the changes associated with the Internet, it is not

so much the technology itself but the way that technology enables
behaviour which is important. Kerry Cannon Jr., at iM@, captures
the essence of this when he says: Theres always been usergenerated content; it was called word of mouth. Technology has
just empowered that word of mouth technology has absolutely
changed the game in terms of how many other mouths you can
hear from. Or, in the words of media consultant and author, Clay
Shirky, [social media] tools dont get socially interesting until they
get technologically boring. 13
Looking forward to how user-generated content itself will evolve,
Nikos Goulis, of E Travel SA, in Greece, sees the proliferation of UGC
continuing unabated, User generated content will have more data,
both in text and picture, video and music. I believe we will have
content for destinations that are not very popular right now and
there isnt much and, for the popular destinations, we will have
a plurality of the content which might be missing today. (Nikos
Goulis, E Travel SA, Greece)
Joe Bous, at US travel agency, Wholesale Travel Center, thinks the
challenge is not so much to get more content, but to find meaning
in the content you have, there might be 4000 reviews what are
you going to do with 4000 reviews? And it all, of course, comes
down to 3.5 stars. Its sort of worthless. Part of the answer is
knowing who wrote a given review, as Brian Harniman, Kayak,
points out, I can look for people that seem to be like me and really
trust their judgement more than the rest of the great unwashed
reviews. If someone is travelling for a different reason from me, a
hotel may be good for them but by the same token horrible for me.
12
Technology and the total trip experience Description
For Mr Bous, there is an opportunity for smart technology to

pluck meaning from the mass of content already available, the
next generation of technology will look at something that can do
semantic analysis and come up with some sort of metric or analytic
that can make sense of all that drivel that people write.
A final word on business travel. Until now, leisure travel has
benefitted most from user-generated content, but two thirds of our
panel see potential as yet unfulfilled for user-generated content

to add value to the business travel experience.
With corporations under more pressure than ever to keep costs to a
minimum, a mechanism which allows employees to share costsaving tips and for travel managers to aggregate feedback from
travellers which can be used in supplier negotiations, becomes all
the more attractive.
To what extent do you agree with the following statements?
User-generated content has yet to improve

the business travel experience
31%
User-generated content would be beneficial to the business

traveller in much the same way that it is to the leisure customer
Totally agree
34%
41%
Partially agree
Neither
7%
21%
Partially disagree
21%
31%
3%
7%
3%
Totally disagree
Waiting for mobileription

Nearly a third of respondents to our online survey felt that mobile devices will have a greater impact on the way the next generation
researches and books travel than social networking, user reviews, video sharing or visualisation tools. According to the International
Telecommunications Union, the number of mobile phone subscriptions exceeded 50% of the worlds population in 2008. Once again, the
BRIC countries are responsible for a large share of this: over 1/3 of the worlds mobile phone subscriptions are accounted for by these four
countries .14
Which of the following do you think will have the

greatest impact on the way the next generation
researches and books travel?
8%
2% 10%
N/A
Visualisation tools (ie Second life)
22%
26%
Users reviews
Mobile devices
(online survey: Base: 2719)
Social networking
32%
Video-sharing (eg YouTube)
Waiting for mobileription
In a March 2009 report, PhoCusWright calls mobile, The Next Platform for Travel 15 and Samsung, the electronics group, expects the
market for smart phones which combine voice calling with email and Internet access to grow from 170 million in 2009 to 500 million in
2012 16.
Long anticipated, mobile internet really does seem about to take off. As PhoCusWright has pointed out, the more compelling opportunity
[than simply shifting reservations from fixed Internet to mobile] will be to create mobile-specific applications that go beyond shifting share
to a new channel, and thus generate ancillary revenue that was not previously available. 17
This is certainly not lost on application developers. Today, Apples website lists over 3,700 travel-specific applications for its iPhone, for
everything from checking flight delays to finding the cheapest
petrol station to a mobile travel map of China specifically for fans
of kung fu.
Henry Harteveldt of Forrester Research points out that the nexus
between mobile Internet and user-generated content will be
increasingly important. Travel is one of the businesses that lends
itself to user generated content and the sharing of ideas, opinions
and suggestions. A big factor behind this increase will be the
growth and evolution of mobile internet devices that are geared
more for data than voice. These will allow person-to-person or
group messaging that might be written word or voice, SMS text or
other data, and along with this will be the emergence of new types
of internet sites.
Indeed, some of the most interesting iPhone applications combine
mobile with user-generated content. Roadtrippr is like a wiki of
interesting destinations for people to visit while on a road trip.
Users contribute information about interesting attractions in their
home town and, in turn, use it as a resource when they are on the
road. When used from an iPhone, the application is aware of the
users location and tailors (user-generated) content accordingly.
14
Looking further into the future
The futurologist Ray Kurzweil (The Age of Spiritual Machines:

Timeline) predicts that, in ten years time, computers will be largely
invisible and embedded in walls, furniture, clothing and even bodies.
Mr Kurzweil accurately predicted the emergence of the Internet and
the fall of the Soviet Union, so he is worth listening to.
What is more, his vision of embedded computing is already
becoming a reality. Cars are a case in point: the 1978 Cadillac Seville
was the first car to include a single microprocessor, to power its
trip computer18 . Thirty years later, even the worlds cheapest new
car the Tata Nano carries twelve microprocessors. Car rental
companies already offer optional GPS devices which not only show
you the way to your hotel but can also suggest nearby tourist
attractions.
As with personal computers in the nineties, treating cars as nodes
in a network is revealing valuable new applications 19 . Inrix is
a start-up which aggregates information on traffic flows from
GPS systems installed in vehicles, fixed traffic sensors and other
sources. This is then delivered to in-car GPS systems used either
by private individuals or delivery fleets 20 . Such applications are

even changing the way we think about cars: Zipcar is a car-sharing
service billed as an alternative to car ownership or rental. Members
of the service are given an electronic card which they can use to
access any one of 6,000 cars in North America and London 21 . The
cars themselves report their positions back to head office so agents
can tell customers where their nearest car is. Customers rent the
cars by the hour or for days at a time, picking them up from where
the previous customer left them. Such a model potentially releases
car rental companies from the necessity of renting out large car
parks; the problem is, in effect, crowd-sourced. Similarly, a car rental
company could aggregate historical location data of all the cars
in its rental network, combine this with the real-time locations of
the cars in its network and put such data to commercial use. They
could recommend services not just on the basis of their geographic
proximity but also on the basis of how popular such services have
been with other drivers in the network: drivers who stayed at this
motel ate at Chez Gerards Bar and Grill.
but its so much nicer to [stay] home?
The ultimate travel technology would enable all the benefits of

travel without leaving the comfort of your home or office. Mr
Kurzweil predicts that within a few short years, three-dimensional
virtual reality displays embedded in glasses and contact lenses
will be used routinely as primary communication interfaces,
and that high resolution virtual reality and all-encompassing
tactile environments will enable people to do virtually anything
with anybody, regardless of physical proximity. And the rise in
visualisation tools and virtual reality may change the whole concept
of travel. Travellers can experience the travel sensation while
making their choices, whilst virtual travel (video conferencing,
hologram meeting, etc.) may completely change travel patterns.
The technology of the moment, in this respect, is TelePresence.
Launched by Cisco three years ago, TelePresence is basically a highquality video conference system. It is still used mostly by larger
companies because the technology is still expensive. Of course,
this is no reason to write it off; as adoption increases the cost will
fall. The question is, will it replace business travel? Starwood and
Marriott think not: both have announced TelePresence services
at their hotels . The target market is smaller companies or local
branches which cant afford their own dedicated TelePresence
set-ups but would still like the virtual face-to-face experience.
At 500USD an hour the service still isnt cheap, but it is a lot cheaper
than flying from New York to London, for example.
It remains unlikely that TelePresence will completely replace the

business trip; much less the holiday abroad. Since the invention
of the telegraph, advancing communications technologies have
tended to go hand-in-hand with a global growth in travel, driven
by among other things advancing transport technology, the
internationalisation followed by the globalisation of business and,
simply, the desire to get away from it all. After all, its still nice to go
travelling.
Key findings
> We are about to see a significant amount of technological innovation
to streamline the experience of travellers during their trip.
> Mobile internet will combine with social networking to offer new
opportunities for travel companies to offer an improved trip experience
for business and leisure travellers.
> TelePresence technologies will complement, but not replace, business
travel.
16
The consumer booking experience
iders must work hard to improve

ughout this research is that prov
thro
rd
hea
e
hav
in
we
s
sage
mes
One of the clearest
nce is the most important element
experts felt that the user experie
of
el
pan
our
ed,
Inde
nce.
erie
the user exp
creating brand loyalty online.
nd
have the most impact on bra
Which of the following will
(Expert interviews: Base: all
responding: 30)
loyalty in the online world?

73%
Improved user experience

Personalised web content
43%
Offer better value for money
40%
rests
40%
Segment products to target niche inte
ile
30%
Incorporate user-generated content
30%
Support multiple platforms, e.g. mob
how travel companies can

In this sub-section, we look at
s
erience in the online world. Thi
achieve excellent customer exp
must increasingly include:
, speed and ease of access
> A smooth online experience
freedom from technical
through multiple channels, and
hitches;
of MakeMyTrip, India: The
In the words of Jasmeet Singh
anisation is the time when a
moment of truth for every org
l.
iness, irrespective of the channe
customer interacts with the bus
top
a
vide
it is imperative to pro
In the case of online businesses,
nce is not only important at
erie
exp
This
.
class user experience
h
payment) but it must begin wit
the latter part of the funnel (at
the word Go.
delivery, making it easy to find
> Comprehensive information
e, transparency, and the
pric
t
the right product at the righ
e.
rmation required in one plac
ability to access all of the info
%
okers, says, It should be 100
Alan Josephs, formerly of ebo
ily
eas
to
ity
abil
the
Speed and
focused on user experience.
find the right product.
alisation, using customer

> Customisation and person
al needs, offer relevant
son
intelligence to address per
nt suggestions.
information and make intellige
Andy Bateman of Interbrand,
This is neatly summed up by
that reflects the needs of
USA: Provide a great service
of
content that gets in the way
customers rather than push
do.
what customers are trying to
tak
specific actions companies can
Below we outline some more
online.
to improve customer loyalty
t and
ld consumer confidence, trus
> Especially in Asia-Pacific, bui
sonal
per
and
nts
me
credit card pay
comfort with security around
it card
cred
ng
givi
ut
abo
able
comfort
details: Make the customer
, it will
den
sud
a
of
all
pen
hap
not
details over the Internet. It will
MakeMyTrip, India)
be gradual. (Jasmeet Singh,
incentives, such as financial
> Creating urgency and offering
ed value, to do the deal: If the
incentives, discounts and add
there is a
d user experience first time,
customer has had a very goo
coming
er
referral and for the custom
lot of possibility for positive
(Helen
g.
thin
nt
is the most importa
back. I think user experience
tralia)
Demetriou, Wotif Group, Aus
ed
ediately the old tried and test
Offer an incentive to book imm
bia)
Ara
di
Sau
el,
Trav
oo
en, Kan
method. (Abdulla Abikhamse
just transparency but, where
> Reassurance on pricing not
even
tees and promises: Customers,
possible, lowest price guaran
t
eren
diff
from
price, still tend to ask
if they are getting the lowest
est
Low
a
e
Hav
.
prices available?
sources, are there any lower
r products well.
you
lain
exp
and
tee
Fare Guaran
air, Finland)
Finn
i,
(Timir Bhose & Pia Viljaniem
erent
aggregating products from diff
> Providing a one-stop shop,
er
tom
cus
product, allowing the
providers, including competitive
t
visi
to
ing
hav
kage without
to build their own tailored pac
g content. Travel suppliers
chin
rea
farre
Mo
s:
multiple site
ts into their site to generate
duc
pro
need to aggregate different
pliers need to have metasearch
customer interest. These sup
or
show real time seat inventories
properties in their site that can
)
ines
lipp
, Griffin Sierra Travel, Phi
room availabilities. (Marilu Ngo
illary
only for travel but also for anc
Make it a one-stop shop, not
er can
tom
supermarket where the cus
processes. It needs to be a
wants.
go in with a list of things he
ines, India)
Airl
her
gfis
Kin
er,
(Ratan Ratnak
ering niche products and

> Quality of products off
modity mass market
com
t
jus
differentiation, not
honest products. Many new
offerings: Offer niche and
e
tour operators which hav
online travel agencies and
,
and
sell
y
t know what the
a lot of mass products don
nt
clie
the
er
aft
r
yea
king, the
while they may get one boo
d
tea
ins
ss
cla
is
ent
tem
sta
Our
does not return to them.
of mass.
, Germany)
(Pascal Zahn, Olimar Reisen
,
h the process step-by-step
> Helping customers throug
ing
vid
pro
d,
che
rea
has been
making it clear what stage
and perhaps allowing for
d
uire
req
ere
wh
ce
reassuran
offline support if needed.
18
All Niches Great and

Small
Reports of the death of the travel agency have, by and large, been
exaggerated. According to PhoCusWright, The dramatic shift in
online share towards supplier Web sites that took place in the earlier
part of the decade has slowed or stopped. 22 Indeed, PhoCusWright
expects share to shift from supplier websites back to online travel
agencies as the economic downturn puts a premium on finding
deals and comparing different suppliers.
Moreover, there is still a significant proportion of travel booked
offline. PhoCusWright estimates that in 2007, 49% (by value) of
travel booked in the US the most advanced in terms of Internet
penetration in travel was booked offline. Will the shift to online
level off or will we carry on all the way to 100% online booking?
Three-quarters of respondents to our global online survey think
100% penetration will never be reached.
Do you think the proportion of travel booked online will

ever reach 100%?
No, the proportion is as high as it will get
10%
No, there will always be a small

proportion of travel booked offline
Yes, but a long, long time in the future
Yes, soon
65%
10%
extent. Even if the products will become a humanised experience

when they surf the web, the customers will still feel they need
something extra by talking to someone you cannot take that
away.
Regardless of where the online / offline equilibrium eventually rests,
our panel expect to increase the proportion of their IT spend which
is allocated to supporting their online strategy.
The Internet has enabled other industries to increase the length of
the distribution curve i.e. sell more of the small-volume products
a phenomenon made popular by Wired editor Chris Anderson in
his book, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of
More. For example, Amazon.com makes 30% of its revenue selling
books which are not cost-effective for the worlds largest offline
bookseller, Walmart, to stock.
In our online survey, less than a third of respondents follow the
traditional retail model, deriving 80% of their revenue from only the
top 20% of their product portfolio. However, for nearly 4 out of 10 of
respondents, 80% of revenue is spread across 60% or more of their
product portfolio, which is much closer to the long-tail model.
What percentage of your companys IT spend would

you estimate is allocated to technology to support your
online strategy?
15%
(Online survey: Base: all responding: 2,731)

Indeed, one in ten suggest that it has already peaked or will
even start to fall. This view is most likely to be held by those in
traditional travel agencies and nearly one in five of those in North
America believe that the peak has been reached. Kerry Cannon Jr.,
at iM@ thinks, There is and there will always be a cross-section
of the public that just wont ever use [the Internet to book travel].
Regardless of how much you humanise it, there will always be a
cross-section of people that will hire people to do that stuff for
them. There are certain things that the Internet has definitely
changed, but human nature, no.
91% - 100%
81% - 90%
71% - 80%
61% - 70%
51% - 60%
41% - 50%
Up to 40%
However, the majority 65% of respondents think the proportion

of travel booked offline will only be small.
Marilu Ngo of Griffin Sierra Travel in the Philippines suggests that
cultural differences may lead to asymmetric penetration of Internet
travel around the world: In South East Asia, clients prefer personto-person communication or a personalised service it is this
preference that inhibits growth of online travel services to a larger
Currently
In 2020
20
Online travel agencies are more likely to be at the long-tail end of

the spectrum, with 30% saying that the top 80% of products account
for 80% of their revenue.
Travel 2009
The New Marketplace
Scheduled Airlines, Cars,
Hotels, Cruises
Head
15%
Popularity
Scheduled Airlines
Popularity
Which of the following best describes your business?
Travel 1975
The Old Marketplace
Cars, Hotels
Low-cost Carriers
Tours and Activities
Adventure Tours
Vacation Homes
Spas
Head
Long Tail
28%
Products
Top 40% products = 80% revenue

23%

34%
Long Tail
(Online survey: Base: all responding: 2,515)
Our expert panel generally agreed with the view that the future of
the travel business is in the millions of niche markets at the shallow
end of the distribution curve (illustrated in the PhoCusWright
diagram right). Two thirds agree with the statement, and only one
in four disagree (airlines in particular).
Although most of our panel still see big-selling products as their
greatest opportunity, around half see significant opportunity in
selling more niche content and selling to niche customers.
Products
Source: PhoCusWright, Inc.

What might those niches be? Although family-friendly travel is still
reckoned to offer the greatest opportunity and is not exactly niche
our panel did see opportunity in, among other things, adventure
travel (83%), religious travel (55%) and weddings (45%).
Selling niche content has two obvious challenges: low volume
and finding enough customers. By definition, a company will not
sell a high volume of a niche product. To become large, a business
must work out how to standardise across a number of niches
to gain sufficient economies of scale to make low volumes on a
number of niches add up to a large and profitable business. Lowcost carriers operating a network of routes to secondary cities are
a good example of this in the travel industry: the absolute volume
of passengers on each route may be small but so long as they are
profitable, the carriers total volume may be large.
Which of the following do you think offers the greatest financial opportunity for your own business?
Selling more of existing big-selling products
41%
Selling more niche content
31%
Selling to niche customers
24%
Selling more to existing biggest customers
Greatest opportunity
7%
Second
17%
28%
21%
24%
48%
Third
14%
34%
17%
14%
34%
24%
21%
Least opportunity
(Expert interviews. Base: all responding, 29)
Specialisation is another strategy.

Companies like Trailfinders, which
specialises in adventure travel, or Griffin
Marine, which specialises in marine travel
and participated in this study, can offer
specialised knowledge of a specific sector
which elevates the decision process beyond
price.
It also builds loyalty. Outside the travel
industry, the carmaker Subaru has
successfully operated in a niche; the
company specialises in vehicles for outdoors
enthusiasts and experience-seekers. An
article in the Financial Times quotes Tim
Mahoney, US chief marketing officer at
Subaru, Were a niche brand but that has
nothing to do with size, its more about
finding a relatively safe place where we can
exist comfortably. 23
The same article quotes John Wolkonowicz,
an analyst at financial analysis and market
intelligence consultancy, IHS Global Insight,
explaining, I dont think you could find a
more fiercely loyal body of customers [than
Subarus], except perhaps for BMW.
How would you rate the business opportunity in each of the following
areas?
Family friendly travel
56%
Lifestyle travel
50%
Groups and meetings
50%
Adventure travel
22%
Religious travel
22%
Ground transportation
17%
Weddings
17%
Dining reservations
Major opportunity
44%
> The shift to online will continue but will most likely
plateau before 100%: some travel will always be booked
offline.
> The millions of niche markets at the shallow end of the
distribution curve represent a significant opportunity for
travel companies to increase revenue and loyalty.
6% 11%
22%
33%
39%
33%
44%
Limited opportunity
6%
11%
28%
28%
6%
11% 6%
22%
44%
Some opportunity
Key findings
28%
33%
28%
In an increasingly online world, where

loyalty is hard to earn and easy to lose,
and barriers to entry are low, scale or
specialisation or a combination of the two
are rare routes to profitable growth.
17%
50%
39%
6% 6%
28%
33%
Eco / green travel
6%
39%
39%
Aircraft charter
Travel goods
39%
6% 6%
6% 11%
17%
11%
17%
11%
No opportunity
Don`t know
(Expert interviews. Base: all travel agencies: 18)
22
Technical Appendix
Amadeus commissioned independent research consultancy, David Burton Associates (DBA), to undertake a
programme of research within the global travel industry in autumn 2008.
30 in-depth interviews were conducted with key senior opinion-leaders in travel and travel-related companies
worldwide our expert panel offering a broad-based and informed insight into trends in the travel business.
Interviews were conducted between September 2008 and January 2009. These were principally conducted by
telephone by senior DBA executives and associates, with one or two interviews being completed by correspondence.
Our expert panel comprised:
>
Saudi Arabia, Abdulla Abikhamseen, Executive General Manager, Kanoo Travel, Online travel agency
>
USA, Andy Bateman, Chief Executive Officer, Interbrand, New York, Branding agency
>
Finland, Timir Bhose, Director & Pia Viljaniemi, Development Manager e-commerce, Finnair, Airline
>
USA, Joe Bous, Director, Wholesale Travel Center, Online travel agency
>
USA, Kerry J. Cannon Jr., Chief Executive Officer, iM@ (interactive MOBILE @dvertising), Travel information
>
Taiwan, Jeff Chu, Managing Director, Grand Travel Inc, Travel agency
>
Australia, Helen Demetriou, Executive General Manager, Flights Business Unit, Wotif Group, Online travel
agency
>
UK, Paul Ellerby, Sales & Marketing Director UK & USA, easyCruise, Cruise
>
USA, Robert Gallagher, Chief Operating Officer, AIG Travel, Travel insurance
>
Greece, Nikos Goulis, Managing Director, E Travel SA, Online travel agency
>
USA, Brian Harniman, Executive Vice President, Marketing & Distribution, Kayak, Travel search engine
>
USA, Henry Harteveldt, Vice President, Principal Analyst, Airline & Travel Industry Research, Forrester
Research INC., Travel research
>
Colombia, Maria Claudia Isaza, Vice-President e-business, Aviatur Group, Travel agency
>
UK, Alan Josephs, Managing Director, formerly ebookers, Online travel agency
>
Malaysia, Shivanathan Kesavan, Travel Manager, Gem Travel, Travel agency
>
Canada, Guylaine Lavoie, Director Marketing Innovations, Air Canada, Airline
>
UK, Ignacio Martos, Chief Executive Officer, Opodo, Online travel agency
>
Philippines, Marilu Ngo, Vice-President & General Manager, Griffin Sierra Travel Inc., Travel agency / marine
crew & corporate travel
>
Qatar, Peter Pohlschmidt, Manager E-commerce, Qatar Airways, Airline
>
USA, Alexander Pyhan, Director Global e-Commerce Channels, Marriott International Inc., Hotels
>
Lithuania, Audrius Ramanauskas, Chairman, Interneto Partneris UAB, Online travel agency
>
India, Ratan Ratnaker, Vice President Revenue Optimisation, Kingfisher Airlines, Airline
>
India, Dhruv Shringi, Chief Executive Officer, Yatra.com, Online travel agency
>
USA, Lorraine Sileo, Vice-President Research, PhoCusWright Inc., Travel research
>
India, Jasmeet Singh, Manager International Air, MakeMyTrip, Online travel agency
>
Japan, Mr Takano, H.I.S. Co, Travel agency / Online travel agency
>
Chile, Gonzalo Undurruga, Vice-President e-commerce, LAN, Airline
>
Poland, Janusz Wierbowski, Owner, Sonata Travel, Travel agency / Online travel agency
>
Germany, Pascal Zahn, Executive Officer, Olimar Reisen GmbH, Tour operator
One additional panel expert asked to remain anonymous.

This was supported by an online survey, conducted in November 2008. Invitations were e-mailed to Amadeus
contacts throughout the worldwide travel industry, and a short questionnaire was completed by nearly 3,000
travel professionals, covering all regions of the world and a spread of business sectors.
The profile of the sample was as follows:
BY SECTOR:
BY REGION:
Airline
19%
Western Europe
34%
Car rental company
2%
Eastern Europe
5%
Hotel
15%
Southern Europe
4%
Travel agency
52%
USA & Canada
25%
Online travel agency
3%
Central America & Caribbean
3%
Cruise
1%
Latin America
11%
Other
9%
Middle East & North Africa
4%
Subsaharan Africa
2%
North Asia
1%
South Asia
1%
South East Asia
6%
Central Asia
1%
Pacific
4%
24
Appendix
1.
http://www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fires_acres.htm
2.
http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/ArticleItem.aspx?pageid=56
3.
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/ DH_4006801
4.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participatory_Medicine
5.
http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/press_det.php?id=4421
6.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2009/db2009079_431299.htm
7.
http://www.outbound-tourism.cn/english/intro.asp
8.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings
9.
http://pub.unwto.org/epages/Store.sf/?ObjectPath=/Shops/Infoshop/Products/1482/SubProducts/1482-1
10.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/RES012809A.htm
11.
http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13871969
12.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/06/17/328318/china-bucks-the-downturn-at-home.html
13.
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html
14.
http://www.itu.int/newsroom/press_releases/2008/29.html
15.
http://www.phocuswright.com
16.
http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE53I03V20090419
17.
Mobile: The Next Platform for Travel, PhoCusWright, March 2009
18.
http://www.embedded.com/columns/significantbits/13000166?_requestid=192742
19.
http://www.economist.com/sciencetechnology/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13725743
20.
http://www.inrix.com/pdf/INRIX%20Corporate%20Overview.pdf
21.
http://www.zipcar.com/how/technology
22.
U.S. Online travel overview, Eighth Edition, PhoCusWright, November 2008
23.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/430b9fd8-721e-11de-ba94-00144feabdc0.html
Acknowledgements
PUBLISHED BY
Amadeus IT Group, SA
DESIGN & PRODUCTION
Amadeus IT Group, SA
PHOTOGRAPHY
Daniel Greaves
Alejandra Contreras
Amadeus Image Bank
RESEARCH
David Burton Associates
Previous publications
Future Traveller Tribes
Report for the Travel Industry
Future Traveller Tribes
2020
Developed by Henley Centre HeadLightVision in partnership with Amadeus

www.amadeus.com/traveller tribes
Report for the Air Travel Industry

Developed by Henley Centre HeadlightVision
in partnership with Amadeus
The austere traveller:

the effect of corporate cutbacks on hotels
A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit
Executive Summary
The Austere Traveller

The effect of corporate cutbacks on hotels
A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit
http://www.amadeus.com/hotels/austere_traveller.html
Sponsored by

Three important trends in travel which are being accelerated by the recession.
For more information:
mediarelations@amadeus.com
www.amadeus.com/amateur-expert

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The Amateur-Expert Traveller

Three important trends in travel which

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The rise of the BRIC economies

Building the brand in the online world

The Responsive Journey

Technology and the total trip experience

Waiting for mobile

Looking further into the future

but its so much nicer to [stay] home?

The consumer booking experience

All Niches Great and Small

The Amateur-Expert Traveller 

Foreword, by Ian Wheeler

The amateur-expert traveller: the Internet has put much more

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Amateur-Expert Traveller 

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

Just as the Internet has empowered patients with knowledge, social

The corollary to this is that half of our experts expect a similarly

Something similar is happening in the travel industry. The current

More demanding in terms of service

Less likely to seek professional offline advice

(Expert interviews: Base: all responding: 28)

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

Travellers are expected to become more adventurous in the future

According to the UN World Tourism Organisation 5 growing demand

Organisation, the current top three travel destinations globally

Indeed, according to Gerard Bellino, a vice president at Carlson

More travel abroad

More short-term booking ahead

(Expert interviews: Base: all responding: 28)

The Amateur-Expert Traveller 

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The rise of the BRIC economies

Not only will the traveller of the future be more knowledgeable

respectively in 2009. The economies of China and India, by contrast,

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

Building the brand in the online world

online brands take a larger

uld you say that

tation of the market, the

(Expert interviews: Base: all resp

Consistency between brand

Peer-to-peer word of mouth

Effective brand and product promotion

Average score based on

Emotional connection with the brand

The Amateur-Expert Traveller 

ed content with respect

Very positive 27%

Moderate threat 16%

(Online survey: Base: all resp

rs are going to get into the

e even more pressure to

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Responsive Journey

The Amateur-Expert Traveller 

The Responsive Journey

That`s about to change

Technology and the total trip experience

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Amateur-Expert Traveller

The Amateur-Expert Traveller