IJSTE - International Journal of Science Technology & Engineering | Volume 1 | Issue 11 | May 2015

ISSN (online): 2349-784X

Contingency Analysis To Detect Weak links in the

Network
K Rachana Raj
PG Scholar
Department of Power System Engineering
UBDTCE, Davangere, India

Dr. H R Sudarshan Reddy

Professor
Department of EEE
UBDTCE, Davangere, India

Abstract
Power system is a large, interconnected and complex network. The security and stability is the most important factor for a system
to work reliable. In order to make the system stable and secured the operator must minimize the outages occurring for this
purpose contingency analysis is very important. The operator must have idea about violations that may occur in the system. So
here work is done to identifying the weak links in the network by contingency analysis and then going to take necessary
precautions to overcome the problem, i.e. strengthening the weak links. Mathematical model will outline the simulation done for
identification of generator outages, transformer outages and transmission line outages so that contingency analysis and ranking
has been done based on full AC load flow. Here generation outages and transmission line outages are of concern. This method is
applied to the 35 bus system.
Keywords: AC Load Flow, Contingency Analysis and Ranking
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I. INTRODUCTION
Power system is vast and its complexity increases with the size of the system. System is usually operated under stressed
condition and restricted stability margin. In order to make the system more reliable it should be taken care that outages or fault
occurring has to be reduced. As the system operating conditions keeps varying with respect to time, its very important to predict
the status of the system which would be difficult. This can be done by contingency analysis. A contingency means possibility of
occurrence of the future event but cannot be predicted with certainty. Therefore we can define contingency analysis as the study
of the outages of elements in the power system such as generators, transmission lines and transformers and to investigate the
resulting effects on this on the bus voltages and line power flows of the remaining system. This is also useful in power system
network design stage, during network expansion and during the maintenance.
By doing the contingency analysis, operator will get an idea about the components with has to be taken care or need more
attention, so this will be helpful in taking necessary actions. Disturbance associated with the power system may cause serious
troubles with short interval of time in case if operator fails to take necessary actions in time. In order to avoid this situations the
modern power system is uses the fast computers equipped with contingency analysis programs which model the system and
make sure that all the outages are studied and operator is notified in case of emergency.
There are various method that can be used to perform the analysis. The choice of the method or model is also important as it
intern affects the system stability and security. Usually to widely used models are AC load flow and DC load flow. When
accuracy and voltage magnitude is of concern AC load flow is preferred. When mega watt power flow is of concern DC load
flow is preferred. AC load flow takes more time than DC load flow as accuracy is concerned so usually AC flow is run for
critical outages. Contingency analysis can be modelled for single failure event or for the multiple failure event one after the other
until credible outages are studied.

II. METHODOLOGY
In this method we perform the contingency analysis using the appropriate method, then we are going to simulate the outages of
line and generating unit. Once the outage is created the contingencies are ranked based on there severity. The weak links in the
network is determined and the strengthening of the network is done.
A. Proposed Algorithm:

Form the Y bus by inspection method.

Conduct load flow by Newton Raphson method.
Simulation of the line outages and generating unit outages is done.
Rank the contingency based on APLPI method.
Select the severe contingency and suggest the new limits.

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Once again obtain results for new flow limit.

B. Simulation of Line Outage and Generator Outage:

For the simulation of transmission line outages corresponding admittance matrix is formed. Lets consider there is an outage
between the line connected between the buses a and b. here the representation is done based on the model.
Y`aa = Yab - (1/( Rab+ jXab)) - (jBab/2)
Y`bb = Ybb - (1/( Rba+ jXba)) - (jBba/2)
Y`ab = Yab - (1/( Rab+ jXab))
Y`ba = Yba - (1/( Rba+ jXba))
Where,
Y`aa, Yaa
: Post and pre-contingency self admittance at bus a.
Y`bb, Ybb : Post and pre-contingency self adittance at bus b.
Y`ab = Y`ba : Post contingency mutual admittance between bus a and b.
Yab =Yba : Pre-contingency mutual admittance between bus a and b.
The simulation for generating units can either be single unit or more in the system. Considering the total genartion for the
station is Pnm at bus a, with the assumption the there exist identical(m) units, then
`ma = ma (ma/m)
Where,
P`ma: Active power generated at bus a after the outage.
Pma: Active power generated at bus a before the outage.
n: Number of outage generation units in the station.
Pma/m: Active power generated at bus a per generator unit.
C. Contingency Ranking:
The method used for contingency ranking is active power loading performance index (APLPI). This is one of the fast and
accurate method for contingency ranking which utilises a system wide scalar PI to quantify the severity of each contingency, this
is done by using AC load flow by calculating the post contingency bus voltages and line flows. The exponent of the performance
index is changed from 2 to 30 in order to address the masking errors. The contingencies obtained are ranked based on their
severity i.e., most sever line at the top of the list and less severe at the bottom. The line flow violation and voltage violation is
considered for the performance index calculation.
This method is straight forward and in this study on the basis of line loading contingencies are ranked. The performance index
will be the accumulation of the post contingency line flow over the line limits. The value of this fraction will be grater than one if
the transmission line is overloaded. There are two possibilities that may occur i.e., if many lines are operating nearer to their
limits the values of APLPI will be greater while another possibilities is that even though the line is overloaded but the value of
APLPI is small. This is called as masking error, in order to avoid it the value of m has to be increased.
APLPI is the active power loading performance index corresponding to line real power flow violations. It is formulated as
below and gives measure of line MW overloads

Where,
Pipc
: The post-contingency active power flow on line (i)
PiLim : The active power flow limit on line (i)
Wpi
: The weight factor of active power flow on line (i)
NL
: Number of transmission lines.
M
: Is a positive integer.

III. CALCULATION OF WEIGHT FACTOR BY FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH

Using Newton Raphson load flow method the results of post contingent state of line power flows and voltage indices are
obtained. to obtain the contingency ranking the membership functions for these post contingent quantities are first recognized
and defined and with these formed membership functions, the computation of overall severity index is done. After load flow
analysis the results obtained are known by different linguistic variable and with the membership function associated with it. The
inputs to the fuzzy inference system are line loadings, and voltage profiles indices and the outputs to the same fuzzy logic system
are the severity indices, this is computed using the simple set of rules of Fuzzy. First the post contingent quantities of line flows
and bus voltage must be expressed in fuzzy set rules notation and then only it can be further processed for reasoning rules of
fuzzy logic.

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A. For Line Loadings:

Obtained each post-contingent quantities of line loadings are considered in terms of percentage. Fuzzy set notation is divided
into following four categories. They are,
With 0-50% of load is regarded as lightly loaded (LL), With 50-80% of load is regarded as normally loaded (NL), with 85100% of load is regarded as fully loaded (FL),Aabove 100% of load is regarded as overloaded (OL).
Similarly the membership functions for the output of these quantities have also been described using Fuzzy set notation and is
divided into following four categories for the evaluation of the severity of a post-contingent quantity. They are,
1) Less severe (LS),
2) Below severe (BS),
3) Above severe (AS) and
4) More severe (MS)
After getting severity indices for all lines loadings, the weighting coefficient used for different severity indices used are :
w= 0.25 for severity index which is Less Severe (LS).
= 0.50 for severity index which is Below Severe (BS).
= 0.75 for severity index which is Above Severe (AS).
= 1.00 for severity index which is Most Severe (MS).
The effect of these weighting coefficient is first dominated by fourth category of severity index (MS) next by third, second and
first category of severity index respectively. The severity of a system with contingency occurring in it is indicated by overall
severity index.
B. For Bus Voltage Profiles:
In this, each post-contingent quantity of bus voltage profiles are classified into three categories as follows using fuzzy set
notations. They are,
1) Low voltage, for voltage below 0.9pu (LV),
2) Normal voltage, for voltage 0.9-1.02pu (NV) and
3) Over voltage, for voltage above 1.02pu (OV).
Post-contingent quantity severity is divided into three categories using fuzzy set notations. The evaluation is done by using
output membership functions as below. They are,
1) Below severe (BS),
2) Above severe (AS) and
3) More severe (MS)
The weighting coefficient used for indicating the severity indices are
w = 0.30 for BS (Below Severe)
= 0.60 for MS (Most Severe)
= 1.00 for AS (Above Severe)

IV. RESULTS
Contingencies are ranked according to their relative severity using the APLPI method. The most severe contingencies are ranked
at the top of the list and the less severe at the bottom. This method is applied to the 35 bus system,which is as shown in the figure
(1) below.

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Fig. 1: 35 Bus Systems

A. Results of Contingency Ranking Using APLPI Method:

Forty three contingencies have been done and the results of contingency ranking are shown in below Table(1). The curves of all
contingencies in figure (2) shows the APLPI against the exponent (m) and it is seen that for severe contingencies the value of
APLPI increases with (m).
Table 1
Contingency Ranking Using APLPI Method
From

To

With m=30

34

1.264179 X 108

35

2.452902 X 107

19

35

1.077346 X 106

5.117807 X 105

19

33

1.482570 X 104

12

23

1.232048 X 103

30

32

4.503158 X 102

18

20

1.467943 X 102

10

1.029317 X 102

11

6.512829 X 101

30

3.783353 X 101

16

17

3.711314 X 101

16

25

2.370971 X 101

11

29

1.900981 X 101

17

1.846212 X 101

33

34

9.268940

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28

29

7.431972

21

31

7.006481

10

21

6.491220

20

21

5.174410

4.100932

24

25

3.539210

22

28

2.907245

2.897308

2.814892

23

24

2.79245

11

17

2.738802

15

2.480239

2.405866

12

2.266714

14

15

2.083337

13

14

2.044935

12

2.037794

13

2.037794

13

2.027216

18

23

1.980979

25

26

1.856516

26

27

1.718254

27

28

1478493

21

22

1.437738

10

12

1.086518

30

31

8.996833

32

34

8.586476

Fig. 2: APLPI Curves of All Contingencies against the Exponent (m)

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B. Strengthening the Weaklinks:

To strengthen the network and improve its flow security the weak transmission lines and transformers power handling capacity
should be increased. After increasing the capacities once again APLPI ranking is done. Figure (3) shows APLPI curves of all
contingencies against the exponent (m) after increasing weak elements capacity, it is clear that values of APLPI here decrease
when (m) increases.
Table 2
Contingency Ranking Using APLPI Method after Increasing the Capacities of the weaklinks
From To
With m=30
18
20
5.039807
12
23
3.046369
8
9 7.320936 X 10-1
9
11 5.966309 X 10-1
9
10 4.291585 X 10-1
7
35 3.253160 X 10-1
16
17 1.472672 X 10-1
16
25 1.365354 X 10-1
8
34 1.135453 X 10-1
2
17 9.097311 X 10-2
11
29 6.770961 X 10-2
9
30 2.904741 X 10-2
28
29 2.275413 X 10-2
1
2 2.255632 X 10-2
32
34 2.141746 X 10-2
23
24 1.002381 X 10-2
19
35 8.019378 X 10-3
30
31 6.963893 X 10-3
20
21 5.098854 X 10-3
11
17 4.694419 X 10-3
25
26 4.557435 X 10-3
24
25 4.376535 X 10-3
5
13 3.927197 X 10-3
13
14 3.390315 X 10-3
14
15 2.969384 X 10-3
19
33 2.785166 X 10-3
6
13 2.414779 X 10-3
33
34 2.273746 X 10-3
5
12 1.604358 X 10-3
30
32 1.531089 X 10-3
3
6 1.337891 X 10-3
2
3 1.336540 X 10-3
1
4 1.319288 X 10-3
4
15 1.319288 X 10-3
6
12 1.117122 X 10-3
26
27 4.978864 X 10-4
21
31 4.840636 X 10-4
18
23 1.030674 X 10-4
27
28 5.695592 X 10-5
10
12 2.131910 X 10-5
10
21 9.567868 X 10-7
21
22 5.247252 X 10-7
22
28 3.323244 X 10-7

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Fig. 3: APLPI Curves Of All Contingencies Against The Exponent (M) After Increasing Weak Elements Capacity.

V. CONCLUSION
Contingency analysis is performed for 35 bus system and the weak links in the system is detected and the new capacities have
been suggested. The new capacities ensure better power system security for both single contingency or any of the set of multiple
contingencies that is occurring in the system.

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A. Narendranatha Udupa, D. Thukaram, K. Parthasarathy.,(1999) An expert fuzzy control approach to voltage stability enhancement.
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