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Discussion overview
Global Market Overview
Forecast to 2017
Supply Overview
North America
Middle East
CIS
China
Demand Overview
Phosphates
Nickel Leaching
Balance
Phosphates Outlook
100
million tonnes S/S-equivalent
85,4
83,5
79,4
Recovered Mined
(Other)
1%
2%
80
60
Recovered
(Gas)
49%
40
Recovered
(Oil/Oil
sands)
48%
20
0
Sulphur
SOF
Pyrites
Phosphates Outlook
80,0
83,2
85,00
80
60
40
20
0
Phosphoric Acid
Ammonium Sulphate
SSP
Metals Leaching
Non-Acid
Industrial Acid
300
250
200
US$/t
million tonnes
150
-1
100
-2
50
-3
ADNOC
monthly
Vancouver fob
(contract)
Canada
5.6
Europe
USA
1.8
CIS
2.6
2.9
6.2
Japan
10.9
Middle East
3.8
10.0
1.1
1.8
2.1
1.0
1.1
Exports
Imports
thousand tonnes
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Russia
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Middle East
Q1 2012
Europe
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
ROW
7
Canada
Russia
China
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Kazakhstan
80
72.9
million tonnes
60
52.8
40
20
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Mined sulphur
Gas
Oil
Other
Middle East
CIS
East Asia
North America
South America
Central America
South Asia
Africa
Central Europe
Western Europe
South East Asia
-2
2
Million tonnes
10
10
Total 12.3 Mt
21
%
29
%
71
%
British
Colombia
79
%
Gas Plants
Oil Sands
Alberta
Fort McMurry
Canada
Alberta gas fields depleting
Total 11.7 Mt
Edmonton
Vancouver
Calgary
Houston
Tampa
11
Iran
2011 1.7 Mt/y
2017 2.1 Mt/y
Saudi Arabia
2011 3.5 Mt/y
2017 6.7 Mt/y
Qatar
2011 2.0 Mt/y
2017 2.8 Mt/y
UAE
2011 2.2 Mt/y
2017 6.0 Mt/y
12
Norilsk
Kazakhstan
6.8
3.5
2.3
Astrakhan
Kashagan
Tengiz
2011 2017
Turkmenistan
2.4
Kazakhstan
2011 2017
0.2
Turkmenistan
Russia
5.6
2011 2017
South Yolotan
13
FORECAST
million tonnes
Sichuan Gas
4
Eastern Region
15
Phosphates Outlook
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
0.1 Mt/y
Brazil
0.8 Mt/y
Brazil
Salitre (2013) 0.3 Mt/y sulphur demand
Expansion at Catalao (+0.1Mt) from 2013
South
America
China
0.6 Mt/y
Morocco
1.6 Mt/y
Africa
Asia
India
0.2 Mt/y
Vietnam
0.1 Mt/y
Middle East
Jordan
0.5 Mt/y
Saudi
Arabia
0.6 Mt/y
Tunisia 0.1
Mt/y
Algeria
0.3 Mt/y
16
2 500
thousand tonnes
2 000
Ambatovy (Madagascar)
Ravensthorpe (Australia)
1 500
1 000
500
0
2010
2011
2012
2015
2017
17
18
million tonnes
-2
-4
19
Conclusions
Global oversupply is coming; can demand catch up?
Global Market
Supply growth to outpace demand growth
New production dominated by Middle East and FSU
Delays less likely as large projects move closer to commissioning
Demand growth
Phosphate demand will recover from 2013
Nickel leaching demand is strong but growth is not unlimited
Sulphur balance will move into surplus
Producers will need to withhold product from the market
But which producers will act?
20
22