Brian Leip Thesis

PROFITABILITY AND THE IMPACT OF COMPLEXITY ON TECHNICAL TRADING
SYSTEMS IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
Brian Kenneth Edward Leip*
[May 2011]
* Brian Leip is an undergraduate student in the College of Business Administration Honors

Program at California State University, Long Beach, CA 90840. This manuscript serves to fulfill
his Honors Thesis requirement. Address correspondence to Brian Leip: BrianLeip@gmail.com.
Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I must begin by offering my deepest gratitude towards Dr. Pamela Miles Homer, Director of
the CSULB and my thesis sponsor, without whom this thesis would likely not have been
completed. Her deep understanding of the academic thesis process coupled with her persistence
and constant encouragement was vital in seeing this paper through to completion. I would also
like to thank Dr. Peter Ammermann for supporting me in the CSULB Student Research
Competition as well as giving a final review of this paper. Dr. Sam Min also deserves my
genuine thanks for the time he spent guiding the CBA Honors Program while Dr. Homer was on
sabbatical.
I conclude with a heartfelt thanks to my friends, parents, siblings, and girlfriend who
patiently supported me throughout this most challenging endeavor. Completing my thesis
demanded a significant portion of my time. Their kind words, understanding, and encouragement
made the sacrifices easier to bear and the joy of completing the thesis that much greater.
PROFITABILITY AND THE IMPACT OF COMPLEXITY ON TECHNICAL TRADING

SYSTEMS IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
ABSTRACT
This study examines the profitability of 63 publicly available automated technical trading
strategies across six complexity levels over a 35-year period (1/1/1975 to 6/30/2010). The
strategies are tested on the spot foreign exchange market where technical analysis usage is most
prevalent. Prior studies on technical analysis in the foreign exchange market argue that simple
technical trading systems generate excess profits that are eroded over time to near zero, yet more
complex technical trading systems are profitable and are able to retain profitability over time.
However, to my knowledge, the impact of complexity has not been tested empirically.
Complexity is here quantified (operationalized) and its impact on risk-adjusted excess profits is
tested.
In addition, the scope of technical trading systems studied in the past is limited by the
number of trading systems tested and the number of foreign currencies used. This study attempts
to expand on past findings by using genetic optimization techniques on the sampled 63 strategies
on seven major currency pairs for a total of 441 optimization cases. Each optimization case had
an average of 69,030 tests, resulting in 30,442,069 total tests.
Findings show that although the majority of trading systems are profitable, a substantial
portion of those profits can be explained as compensation for the bearing of risk, consistent with
the efficient market hypothesis. However, when examining the effect of complexity, there is a
clear link between complexity and risk-adjusted excess profits. This implies that technical
trading system excess profits are the result of skill, rather than luck, in opposition to the efficient
market perspective.
I. INTRODUCTION
The past history of stock prices cannot be used to predict the future in any
meaningful way. Technical strategies are usually amusing, often comforting, but
of no real value.
This quote in a bestselling finance book (over 1.5 million copies sold as of January 10, 2011)
written by Princeton University economics professor and a leading proponent of the efficient
market hypothesis, Burton Malkiel (2011, p. 161), is one notable motivation for this study.
Contrary to Malkiels argument, empirical evidence shows that 59 percent of modern academic
studies on technical analysis yielded positive results versus 21 percent negative and 20 percent
mixed (Park and Irwin 2007). Yet despite this evidence, vocal critics like the above have resulted
in a negative stigma against the practice of technical analysis amongst certain circles.
Technical analysis can be defined as "the study of market action, primarily through the use of
charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends" (Murphy 1999). With the majority of
studies favoring the effectiveness of technical analysis, a layperson would likely conclude that
academics would be the ones staunchly praising technical analysis with practitioners being
behind the curve, but evidence suggests otherwise (Menkhoff and Taylor 2007). The bias against
technical analysis is also occasionally found in popular finance textbooks such as Strong (2009).
Academias skepticism of technical analysis is largely due to its conflict with the efficient
market hypothesis (Fama 1970) that is the foundation of modern finance theory. The efficient
market hypothesiseven in its weakest formstates that technical analysis should be
ineffective. Practitioners, on the other hand, used technical analysis prior to the emergence of the
efficient market hypothesis in the 1970s, and have continued its use, relatively unmoved by
critics such as Malkiel and Fama (Cheung and Chinn 2001).
This divide between the classroom and the street has created a knowledge and perception
gap and begs the question, if not in the classroom, then where are future practitioners to learn
proper technical analysis techniques? This study seeks to bridge this gap via an expansive
exploration of technical analysis in the foreign exchange (forex) market.
Moving beyond the broad academic perception of technical analysis, many studies on
technical analysis in the forex market test a limited number of technical trading systems,
currencies, and time frames. For example, Okunev and White (2003) test four trading systems on
eight forex currency pairs over a 20-year period. As can be expected, as more trading systems
and currencies are tested and the time frame is extended, more time, money, and computing
power is required. The current study is ambitious in that it analyzes 63 trading systems on seven
forex currency pairs over a 35-year period. To my knowledge, there are no other empirical
studies on technical analysis with this same broad scope.
In addition, I introduce a yet untested qualifying factor, complexity. Most simply, complexity
is defined as the utilization of sophisticated formulas, multiple technical indicators,
independently defined exits, intermarket analysis, and/or dynamically self-adjusting technical
trading rules within the trading system. While previous studies have stated that complexity has a
positive correlation with market returns and improved resistance to the ever more efficient
markets (Neely, Weller and Ulrich 2009), there is no empirical test of that theoretical argument
in the literature. In summary, this study builds on previous studies of technical analysis in the
foreign exchange market by testing (1) the profitability an extensive number of publicly
available technical trading systems, and (2) the effect of complexity on strategy returns and
robustness.
II. THE PRACTICE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical Analysis
As stated previously, technical analysis can be defined as "the study of market action,
primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends" (Murphy
1999). Price charts are the most frequently used tool by the market technician, hence the
outdated nickname "chartist". Today, practitioners of technical analysis are typically referred to
as technicians. Figure 1 presents a price chart with technical indicators.
[Insert Figure 1 about here.]
Though evidence of technical analysis usage appears in some form since the 17th century
Dutch tulip market and the 18th century Japanese rice markets, modern technical analysis traces
back to Wall Street Journal articles written at the end of the 19th century by Charles Dow
(namesake of the Dow Jones Industrial Average), though Dow did not use the term technical
analysis. According to textbooks on the subject, technical analysis is based on three basic tenets:
(1) market action efficiently summarizes all microeconomic, macroeconomic and behavioral
information; (2) prices move in trends; and (3) history repeats itself (Murphy 1999).
As an extension of the belief that all available information is contained within price history,
some technical purists do not perform fundamental or economic analyses because that
information is already built in to the price data. However, the majority of market technicians
use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis and the more recently adopted flow
analysis (Menkhoff and Taylor 2007). Technicians believe that price data forecasts
fundamentals, and not the reverse (Murphy 1999), since there is a period of learning where some
traders recognize and anticipate changes before others. Engel and West (2005) tested and
validated this theoretical position.
Other common beliefs of technical analysts include the trend is your friend, cut your
losers short and let the winners ride, and prices dont lie (Lefevre 1994). As suggested by the
first, trends need to form and sustain themsemselves long enough to be identified, capitalized
upon, and held until reversed in order to profit from them. This ties in to the second belief that
profitable positions are held as long as possible, while unprofitable positions exit as soon as
possible. This same concept was discussed nearly 200 years ago by economist and trader James
Grant (1838).
The third concept that prices dont lie acknowledges that some companies are not
completely forthright with the public about their companys financial position. This was most
blatantly illustrated with the Enron and WorldCom frauds, though it is quite common practice for
public companies to manage their numbers and work within GAAP rules in order to show
financial statements in the best possible light. In addition to financial statement manipulation,
television pundits fill the airwaves with contradictory information and Wall Street analysts use
tactics such as publicly promoting the positive aspects of a position so that their firm will have a
market to sell into. Technicians feel that the best way to cut through this noise and decipher the
true direction of the position is through price trends because no matter what is publicly disclosed,
if a financial vehicle (stock, bond, forex pair, etc.) is being bought or sold, that represents
putting your money where your mouth is. [Please refer to Murphy (1999) and Pring (1991) for
a more in depth coverage of technical analysis.]
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Academic Skepticism
The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a theory popularized by Eugene Fama (1970) that
operates on the belief that the markets have become efficient enough where the price one would
pay at any given point in time is fair and accurate. This means that there are no inefficiencies in
the market to exploit. Nothing is under or overpriced, rendering fundamental analysis useless,
and there are no trends or historical patterns to exploit, rendering technical analysis useless. The
core belief of the Efficient Market Hypothesis is that the return one will receive for the purchase
of a financial vehicle such as stocks or commodities is equal to the risk one bears while holding
that vehicle. Low risk securities will earn a relatively low return and conversely high risk
securities garner high returns.
After its emergence in the 1970s, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) quickly gained in
popularity until it became the dominant paradigm and the foundation of Modern Portfolio
Theory in the 1980s. The subsequent two decades have seen the decline of the EMH and the
emergence of behavioral finance, a field of study in finance organized under the belief that the
market is an aggregate of human actions replete with inefficient and imperfect decisions.
Efficient markets should not have bubbles or crashes, so the dot-com crash and 2008 financial
crisis exposed holes in the theory and practitioners sought elsewhere for theoretical arguments
that better explain modern markets.
One alternative perspective, the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo 2004; Lo 2005; Neely,
Weller, and Ulrich 2005) posits that profit opportunities from inefficiencies exist in financial
markets, but are eroded away as the knowledge of the efficiency spreads throughout the public
and the opportunity is capitalized upon. As opposed to its mutually exclusive relationship with
EMH, technical analysis dovetails nicely with AMH. With EMH falling out of favor over the last
twenty years, technical analysis gained.
Categories of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis can be classified as qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative technical
analysis involves discovering visual patterns in a chart of historic data. Patterns range from the
popular head and shoulders pattern (Osler and Chang 1995) to the lesser known island
reversal pattern. See Figure 2 for an illustration of a head and shoulders pattern.

Qualitative technical analysis is subjective in nature and thus, can be difficult to test. The
efficacy of chart patterns are not included in this study, but there others have attempted to
quantify and analysis this method (e.g., Chang and Osler 1995, 1999; Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang
2000). Despite the difficulty in recreating subjective human pattern recognition abilities, results
from prior endeavors indicate that some patterns do have predictive power. [Please refer to
Bulkowski (2005) for a thorough chart pattern reference book.]
Quantitative technical analysis performs mathematical and statistical calculations on historic
data, typically price and volume data, in an attempt to forecast future prices. Technicians use
tools called technical indicators that are visual representations of the quantitative calculations
on a chart. For example, the most commonly used technical indicator is likely the simple moving
average (SMA). The simple moving average is used to smooth the noise from price
fluctuations in an attempt to distinguish a trend (see Figure 3).
Technical indicators are rarely used in isolation by practitioners, but are merely a set of tools
that can be combined together to form a trading system. This is described in detail later.
III. TECHNICAL INDICATORS, TRADING SYSTEMS, BACKTESTING,
AND OPTIMIZATION
Technical Indicators
Technical indicators are important tools used by technical analysts. A technical indicator can
be defined as a numerical and/or visual representation of current and historical price, volume
and/or market composition data in order to isolate trends, turning points or optimal entry/exit
points. They range from the very simple (moving averages) to the more complex (Commodity
Channel Index). While moving averages have been covered in depth, notably in Brock,
Lakonishok, and LeBaron's seminal paper (1992), other popular indicators used widely in the
industry have been explored by the academic community less frequently. For example,
practitioners frequently use the moving average convergence-divergence indicator (MACD),
relative strength index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, and Stochastic indicators, though few have tested
them as part of a trading system. Bollinger Bands are illustrated in Figure 4.
Technical indicators typically have inputs in order to customize the indicator to the
underlying financial vehicle. For example, the Bollinger Bands indicator allows the user to
customize the length of time used (e.g., 30 days) and the standard deviations of the upper and
lower bands. The inputs can be arbitrarily chosen or they can be optimized by cycling through
a range of inputs to determine what would have been most effective over historic price data.
[Optimization is explained in more detail in a later section.]
Currently, the most extensive amount of information on technical indicators is outside the
academic community (e.g., Achelis 2001; Elder 1993; Katz and McCormick 2000; Kaufman
2005; Murphy 1991, 1999; Pring 1991; Wilder 1978). Indicators are very popular in technical
analysis because they consolidate decisions into a simple Boolean decision-making process, and
eliminate subjectivity as well as natural human emotions (e.g., fear, greed, anger, frustration).
An example of a technical indicator used here is the Relative Strength Index or RSI (Wilder
1978) that is mathematically represented as:
(
(
)
)
where n is the number of trading days, U is the change on all up days (days where the close is
higher than the open), D is the change on all down days (days where the close is lower than the
open), and EMA is an exponential moving average. The RSI indicator is normalized between 0
and 100, with zero indicating weakness (closing price is near recent lows) and 100 indicating
strength (closing price is near recent highs). It is typically used as a mean reversion indicator,
which designates a reversal of a trend. Crossing the 70 line is a sell trigger and crossing the 30
line is a buy trigger.
If one only had to follow the buy and sell signals on one indicator to earn a profit in the
markets, there would be no need for this study all traders would currently be using that
indicator. Unfortunately, there is no single indicator that will predict profitable trades on a
perfectly consistent basis. Traders instead use combinations of trading indicators, rules, filters,
money management, entries, and exits in order to create a trading system (also referred to as a
trading strategy), described in the next section.
Beginners often look for a magic bullet-a single indicator for making money. If
they get lucky for a while, they feel as if they discovered the royal road to profits.
When the magic dies, amateurs give back their profits with interest and go
looking for another magic tool. The markets are too complex to be analyzed by a
single indicator. (Elder 1993)
Although it is rare for practitioners to use individual indicators in isolation for trading
decisions, there are some academic studies that assess the efficacy of technical analysis based on
this flawed assumption (e.g., Dempster and Jones 2000). To their credit, Dempster and Jones
(2000) acknowledge this flaw at the end of their paper. The majority of the trading systems
tested in this study utilize multiple indicators, rules, and filters. However, for the sake of
understanding the impact of complexity with regard to single indicator trading systems (which
are relatively simple), some single indicator trading systems are tested here as well.
Trading Systems
A trading system is the culmination of all weapons in the technical analyst's arsenal. Trading
systems ideally begin with a theory based on the technician's observations of market activity a
pattern or trend that has played out consistently over time or appears to be developing in the near
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future that the technician believes can be capitalized upon. The technician decides which tools
would most accurately identify and capture the essence of that theory. Robust trading systems
typically incorporate trading rules, filters, money management, entries, and exits.
Trading Rules. Trading rules explicitly state when to enter and when to exit the position. The
rules may utilize one or more technical indicators (e.g., the MACD indicator rises from below to
above the zero line), price action (e.g., the closing price is higher than previous days closing
price for 3 consecutive days), fundamental data (e.g., US GDP increasing quarter over quarter),
or any other quantifiable metric.
Filters. In addition to rules, some trading strategies also employ filters in order to limit the
number of trades the system creates. Filters are considered a subset of trading rules because they
also involve rules based on technical indicators. A definition of a filter is that buy/sell signals
created by the trading system rules are ignored unless the filter criterion is also met. Since no
indicator or system is accurate every time, filters are employed in the attempt to capture only the
best opportunities and avoid "whipsaw", the unfortunate situation induced by a rapid succession
of buy and sell signals in non-trending markets, that leads to a large number of unprofitable
trades. Filters are also created either with technical indicators or non-indicator data. Ignore the
buy signal generated by a trading rule if the ADX indicator (shows strength of a trend) is below
10 is an example of a filter.
Money Management. Another important factor in a trading system, perhaps the most
important factor, is money management. Money management is a general term that covers topics
such as the amount of capital to be used in each trade, the maximum allowable loss per trade,
how and when to close profitable trades, the number of open trades allowed to be open at any
time, etc. A basic concept in tradingletting winners run and cutting losers shortfalls under
the category of money management.
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Some traders believe that money management is the most important ingredient in
a trading program, even more crucial than the trading approach itself. Im not
sure Id go that far, but I dont think its possible to survive for long without it.
(Murphy 1999)
Entries. All trading systems must have entries and exits. Entries, as the name suggests, are
the point when the trading system enters the market either by going long (buying) or going short
(selling short) the investment vehicle. Entries occur when predetermined trading rules, and
possibly filters, defined in the trading system are triggered.
Exits. Exits can be broken into three categories: reversals, targets, and stop losses. Exits are
an important part of a trading systems money management and thus, a very important part of the
trading system. Reversal stops, the simplest of the three, take the opposite side of the current
trade, occurring when an entry signal is triggered in the opposite direction. Targets are exits
performed when the trade has reached an acceptable level of profit or a predetermined price or
percentage change from the entry point.
Stop losses are safeguard exits put in place to prevent exorbitant losses. They can be fixed,
trailing, or dynamic. Fixed stop losses generate an exit signal when the trade has either lost a
predetermined dollar amount, or the price has moved adversely by a predetermined number or
percentage. Trailing stop losses move in tandem with the currency, trailing below (above for
short trades) for each incrementally higher (lower) movement in price. With any movement
against the direction of the trade, the trailing stop stays fixed in place. Should the price move far
enough against the trade, the stop loss will be triggered, the trade will be exited, and the trading
system position will now be flat. Dynamic stop losses are the most complex form of stop
losses and are a blend of technical indicators and stop losses. The similarities to technical
indicators lie in that they incorporate mathematical or statistical calculations and additional
factors (such as volatility) besides price highs and lows within the stop loss formula. In fact,
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some technical indicators are designed to be used as stop losses, and include the Parabolic Stop
and Reverse (Wilder 1978).
Trading Systems: An Example. An example of a relatively simple trading system used in
this study is the channel breakout system. The entry rule is: go long (short) when the closing
price crosses above (below) the maximum (minimum) of the closing prices over the last x days.
No additional indicators or filters are used, and exits are dynamic and executed by the Parabolic
Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator, an intelligent trailing stop. There are three inputs: (1) number
of lookback days for the channel highs/lows, (2) the Parabolic SAR acceleration factor, and (3)
the Parabolic SAR acceleration limit. Mathematically, the entry rule is expressed as
(
where C is closing price, t is today, n is the number of lookback days given as an input. The
channel breakout system creates a channel around the price history over n days, the idea being
that a breakout to the upside (downside) is a strong directional movement and the start of a new
trend.
Backtesting
Backtesting is the process of applying a trading system to actual historical data to evaluate
how well the system would have performed. Before the proliferation of advanced computing
software, backtesting was done manually. This was an immensely time consuming process and
even when it was finally completed, it was prone to errors. There are also subtle nuances that
may be overlooked: e.g., what buy or sell price the strategy should get as opposed to what it
would actually get given live market conditions. Computing software programs have vastly
improved over time, thus reducing human error and unrealistic market expectation problems.
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Optimization
Optimization is the process of cycling through a vast number of possible trading system
inputs and backtesting each combination on historic data in order to determine the optimal
inputs. As stated previously, both technical indicators and trading systemswhich utilize
technical indicatorshave inputs that can be customized to the users preferences and to the
financial vehicle (stock, forex pair, etc.).
To optimize, the user defines the input starting point, ending point, and increment value. For
example, if a trading system has two inputs (indicator 1-number of days, indicator 2-number of
days) and sets the minimum at five, maximum at 400, and increment of five for each of the two
inputs, that would result in 80 for each input [400/5]. Because there are two inputs, the number
of tests are multiplicative and the total backtests for this example would be 6,400 [80 x 80]. This
process is extremely computer intensive and time-demanding, depending on the number of tests
and the formulas built into the trading system.
Brute Strength Optimization. Brute strength optimization, also referred to as exhaustive
optimization, is the process of backtesting the full spectrum of tests that results from the input
range. Using the previous example, the full 6,400 backtests would be executed.
Genetic Optimization. Genetic optimization is a technique developed to reduce the
computing time required for optimizations. It mimics Darwinian evolution by defining
chromosomes (input parameters), establishing a fitness metric (e.g., net profit), and performing
backtests where weak input parameters (low net profit) die out and strong input parameters
(high net profit) live on to create future generations of similar but slightly different inputs. This
repeats until the strongest set of input parameters remain. The TradeStation platform, used
exclusively for optimization in this study, describes genetic optimization in general terms as
following these steps:
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1. An initial population of chromosomes (combination of strategy parameter values) is

randomly chosen.
2. The fitness criterion is used to identify the best specimens.
3. Weakest chromosomes are discarded.
4. Mutation and crossover are used to find new chromosomes to replace the weak
ones.
5. The replacement chromosomes are put in the population, defining the next
generation.
6. Return to step 2 for fitness evaluation until the last generation is concluded.
7. Find the chromosome with the best fitness in the population.
8. The final chromosome contains the optimized parameter values.
Genetic optimization significantly reduces the number of backtests required in an
optimization. Using the example above with TradeStations suggested genetic optimization
settings, backtests are reduced by 80 percent from 6,400 to 1,280 with results the same or very
close to that of brute force optimization. As a rule, genetic optimization is used in this study
unless the total number of tests is too few (under 1,000) that brute force optimization is rendered
acceptable. Genetic programming is an increasingly popular technique in technical analysis
studies not only for optimization purposes, but also to determine trading rules (Allen and
Karjalainen 1995; Dempster and Jones 2000; Neely, Weller, and Dittmar 1997).
Controlling for Data Snooping. A frequent problem of early studies of technical analysis
was that input parameters (e.g., number of days for a moving average) were selected either
arbitrarily or based on common usage (Poole 1967). There is no reason to believe that arbitrary
inputs would ever be successful except through luck and therefore, they are poor predictors of
the efficacy of technical analysis. As for testing commonly used input parameters, they are
popular because they were successful in the past (the time period being tested), and may not have
good predictive power.
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Optimization solves the problem of what input parameters to use by cycling through a large
number of possible inputs to determine the best one, however it introduces another problem
called curve fitting. Curve fitting occurs when the inputs chosen are picture perfect for the
sample time period being tested, yet perform poorly in a future time period(s). In order to control
for these problems, a two-step process is taken. First, the available data is divided into two
sections: in-sample data and out-of-sample data. Optimization is performed on the in-sample
data in order to isolate potential input parameters. Those input parameters are then backtested on
the non-optimized out-of-sample data to see if the positive results from optimization are real or
the result of curve fitting.
IV. BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESES
Technical Analysis in the Stock Market
Early studies on the effectiveness of technical analysis focus on the stock market. They are
notable both in that most find technical analysis to be ineffective, and also that many are
performed by original proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). For example,
Fama and Blume (1966) report that using filter rules on US stocks is unprofitable when taking
transaction costs into account. Fama (1970) then declared technical analysis to be a futile
undertaking, at which time he introduced the EMH based on his doctoral thesis.
A frequently cited study on the usefulness of technical analysis in the stock market (Brock,
Lakonishok, and LeBaron 1992) gained notoriety because the findings conflict with Fama
(1970). The authors illustrate that the use of simple moving average crossovers, a basic technical
analysis technique, can yield excess returns in the stock market that cannot be accounted for by
null random walk models such as ARMA or GARCH. Note that the focus of this paper is on
the foreign exchange market and thus, discussion on the stock market is constrained. [Please
refer to Park and Irwin (2007) for a comprehensive review of the technical analysis literature as a
16
whole, and Menkhoff and Taylor (2007) for an equally good review of the literature specifically
within the forex market.]
The Use of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange (forex) Market
Ever since floating exchange rates were created in the early 1970s to relieve the untenable
pressure to peg the US dollar to gold prices, researchers have suspected that technical analysis
was used frequently by practitioners in the forex market. However, this belief was not
systematically tested until Allen and Taylor (1990, 1992) surveyed chief forex dealers in
London. The results were striking as nearly 90 percent of sampled dealers reported placing some
importance on technical analysis. In addition, technical analysis was overwhelmingly preferred
on shorter time frames (intraday), whereas fundamental analysis preferred on longer time frames
(over one year).
More recently, similar studies were performed for forex dealers in Austria (Gehrig and
Menkhoff 2004; Oberlechner 2001), Germany (Gehrig and Menkhoff 2004; Menkhoff 1997;
Oberlechner 2001), Hong Kong (Cheung and Wong 2000; Lui and Mole 1995), Singapore
(Cheung and Wong 2000), Switzerland (Oberlechner 2001), Tokyo (Cheung and Wong 2000),
the United Kingdom (Cheung, Chinn, and Marsh 2004; Oberlechner 2001), and the US (Cheung
and Chinn 2001). Though the number of responses and response rates are quite different for each
of these studies, results are notably similar. Findings show that (1) practitioners who use some
type of technical analysis range from 90 percent to 100 percent, (2) technical analysis is more
important for short time frames, and (3) fundamental analysis is more important for longer time
frames. Based on these independent findings, it is safe to say that technical analysis is a widely
used and integral part of the foreign exchange market.
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Profitability of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange (forex) Market

While it is well-established that technical analysis is an important part of the foreign
exchange market, the question of profitability shows mixed results. Early studies on simple
moving average and filter rules in the foreign exchange market find sizeable net profits (Cornell
and Dietrich 1978; Dooley and Shafer 1984; Logue and Sweeney 1977; Logue Sweeney and
Willett 1978; Poole 1967; Sweeney 1986). However, with the exception of Dooley and Shafer
(1984) and Sweeney (1986), the studies have many shortcomings by todays standards. For
example, commissions, slippage, and interest rate carry costs are not included. The authors also
neglect to perform statistical tests to determine if the profitability occurred by chance, and they
fail to test if the profits are compensation for the bearing of riskwhich is an implication of the
EMH. Because Dooley and Shafer (1984) and Sweeney (1986) attempt to address these issues,
they are the most cited of these early studies. Interestingly, modern studies that use improved
methodologies and analytical techniques support many findings of these early flawed studies
(LeBaron 1999; Menkhoff and Schlumberger 1995; Neely 1997; Pilbeam 1995; Saacke 2002;
Surajaras and Sweeney 1992). On balance, the majority of studies find technical analysis to be
profitable, though recent studies suggest that those profits have been eroded over time to close to
zero since the 1990s. More complex forms of technical analysis can still find modest profits
(Neely, Weller and Ulrich 2009).
Accounting for Risk
Perhaps the biggest challenge faced in technical analysis research is determining the ideal
method of accounting for risk. As stated previously, proponents of the EMH do not state that
technical analysis rules must be unprofitable, only that any excess profit is compensation for the
bearing of risk. Cornell and Dietrich (1978) were the first to address this by using an
international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM). Unfortunately, the study is flawed since the
18
beta is calculated on the foreign currencies themselves and not on the trading positions taken on
the foreign currencies.
Sweeney (1986) is an oft-cited pioneer in measuring risk compensation who compares
trading rules on currencies versus buy and hold currency strategies. He reports significant profit
opportunities that are not explained by the bearing of risk. This result is questioned due to the
fact that expecting a positive return on a buy and hold currency strategy implies that one
currency has a positive outlook while the other has a negative outlook (cf. Cornell and Dietrich
1978). In addition, the assumption that the forex risk premium is constant and does not change
over time is not realistic. Taylor (1992) uses a first-order autoregressive process to create a timevarying risk premium calculation and does not find that returns are due to risk, though it is
possible that the model does not calculate risk premium perfectly. In contrast, Kho (1996) finds
that a good portion of the excess returns from technical trading rules is a result of the bearing of
risk when excess returns are related to the world stock portfolio (MSCI) using ICAPM and
GARCH-m models to calculate expected risks.
Another method commonly used by modern researchers to account for risk is the Sharpe
Ratio (Sharpe 1966) that relates the net returns to the standard deviation of those returns.
Mathematically, this is shown as
where R is the asset return, Rf is the return on a benchmark asset (frequently the risk free rate of
return), and
is the standard deviation of the excess of the asset return. The Sharpe ratio on the
trading rule returns is then compared to the Sharpe ratio on a broad portfolio index like the S&P
500 or MSCI (Neely 1997; Chang and Osler 1999; Saacke 2002). These studies show that
technical trading rule risk-adjusted returns are higher than that of the benchmark. It should be
19
noted that the Sharpe ratio, like other risk measurement techniques is imperfect since it requires a
long period of time (22 years for significance at the five percent level) and it does not measure
the perception of risk, which is inherently difficult to quantify. Alternatively, Menkhoff and
Schlumberger (1995) stress the monthly difference in trading rule profitability to buy and hold
profitability to determine practitioner myopic loss aversion posture. Due to the instability of the
monthly returns, their data show that excess profits cease to be significant at the 5% level.
In this study, I expand on the extant literature and utilize the Sharpe ratio of trading rule
returns in relation to the Sharpe ratio of buy and hold returns on the US stock market as
represented by the S&P 500 index to determine if the excess returns are in the form of risk
premia.
H1: Technical trading systems have out-of-sample excess profits that cannot be accounted for
by the bearing of risk.
The Impact of Complexity
In addition to the main profit effects examined in H1, I also test a potentially important
qualifying factor, complexity. While previous studies have stated that more complex forms of
technical analysis outperform less complex forms and that their returns are more stable over time
(Menkhoff and Taylor 2007; Neely, Weller and Ulrich 2009), there is no empirical test of that
theoretical argument in the literature. Furthermore, a clear definition of complexity with regard
to technical trading systems is non-existent.
Most simply, complexity in technical trading systems is here defined as the utilization of
sophisticated formulas, multiple technical indicators, independently defined exits, intermarket
analysis, and/or dynamically self-adjusting technical trading rules within the trading system. I
test the theoretical relationship between complexity and profit stability by operationalizing
complexity and comparing the average Sharpe ratio across complexity levels.
20
H2: More complex technical trading systems yield higher returns than less complex systems.
V. METHODOLOGY
General Information and Procedural Steps
The method used to determine the efficacy of trading systems is to program and
optimize/backtest them using the Tradestation software platform. The process involves the
following steps:
1. Select the target market [forex], target vehicles [7 major currency pairs], and target time
frame [daily].
2. Write programs in computer code that accurately reflect the technical trading systems.
3. Bifurcate the available test data. One half are used to generate optimal inputs for the
technical trading system (in-sample data). The other half are used to test the trading
system with optimized inputs in a non-optimized environment (out-of-sample data). This
is done to prevent data snooping. It is recommended that the optimization be performed
on the more recent block of data so that it is better suited to handle future market
conditions.
4. Run optimizations for each trading system [63] on each currency pair [7] for a total of
441 optimization cases, with a minimum of 5,000 tests per optimization. This results in at
least 2,205,000 tests that must be filtered down to the top 441. The minimum number of
backtests was 499 and the maximum was 357,604, with a mean of 69,030 backtests.
5. Organize the results and apply a scoring metric to all tests.
6. Select the top performing tests from each of the 441 optimizations.
7. Perform out-of-sample backtest using some of the top optimized inputs from the previous
step.
8. Analyze all out-of sample results.
Forex Market
The focus here is on the forex market. Though technical analysis is used in all financial
markets, it is most prevalent in the foreign exchange market. Studies report that between 90 and
100 percent of forex market traders use technical analysis in some fashion (Gehrig and Menkhoff
2004; Menkhoff 1997; Taylor and Allen 1992). In a later US survey that asked forex respondents
21
what best describes their trading style, 29.53% categorized themselves as technical traders, the
largest percent of the four available categories (Cheung and Chinn 2001). The forex market was
also chosen based on the popular idea that it forms trends more often than other markets such as
the stock market (Clements 2010). There are additional benefits to the forex market over other
markets: e.g., it has a manageable number of currency pairs to work with (versus the massive
universe of stocks) and continuous price data (versus futures data that is broken up every few
months by contract expirations and must be blended together).
Currency Pairs
The currency pairs used in this study are the most widely traded, and therefore, the most
liquid currency pairs. Liquidity is crucial in the forex market because it narrows the loss from the
bid/ask spread. If one were to immediately buy and sell a currency pair, it would result in a loss
equal to the size of the spread in addition to any commissions involved. This is commonly
referred to as slippage. Therefore, more liquid currency pairs with narrow spreads are
preferred. The six most liquid currency pairs are:
EUR/USD - Euro/US Dollar

GBP/USD - Great Britain Pound/US Dollar
USD/JPY - US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USD/CHF - Us Dollar/Swiss Franc
USD/CAD - US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
AUD/USD - Australian Dollar/US Dollar
In addition to the most liquid currency pairs, one additional currency pair was included
because it has gained a wide following amongst high frequency currency traders due to it having
the highest level of volatility. The higher the volatility of a currency pair, the more likely that
trading opportunities will appear over a given time frame. This currency pair is:
GBP/JPY - Great Britain Pound/Japanese Yen
22
Backtesting and Optimization Software

The Tradestation platform is recognized as the best of the best when it comes to backtesting
and rule based trading, winning numerous awards from well respected practitioner publications.
Awards include:
Barrons Best Online Broker (2011)

Stocks & Commodities Best Institutional Platform (9 years in a row)
Stocks & Commodities Best Professional Platform (9 years in a row)
Stocks & Commodities Best Online Analytical Platform (8 years including 2011)
Stocks & Commodities Best Futures Trading System (7 years in a row)
Stocks & Commodities Best Stock Trading System (7 years in a row)
Stocks & Commodities Best Real Time Data (2009, 2011)
Brokerage Star Awards 1st Place (2010)
For this study, all indicators, trading systems, optimization, and backtests are programmed
and executed using Tradestation 9.0 (update 8585), the most advanced version when the data
were analyzed.
Data
All forex price data are provided by TradeStation and aggregated on a daily basis. Data
ranges used in this study for AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY
include a 35.5-year time frame (1/1/1975 to 6/30/2010). The data ranges for EUR/USD and
GBP/JPY are from 1/1/1999 to 6/30/2010 (11.5 years).
The data was divided in half for in-sample and out-of-sample testing. In-sample data ranges
for AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY are from 1/1/1993 to 6/30/2010
(17.5 years). In-sample data ranges for EUR/USD and GBP/JPY are from 7/1/2004 to 6/30/2010
(6 years). Out-of-sample data ranges for AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and
USD/JPY are from 1/1/1975 to 12/31/1992 (18 years). Out-of-sample data ranges for EUR/USD
and GBP/JPY is 1/1/1999 to 6/30/2004 (5.5 years). All trades assumed one position of 100,000
forex lots in a given direction, long or short, or no position (flat).
23
Commissions and Slippage

Commission costs and slippage are based on TradeStation commission rates and the bid/ask
spread (slippage) tested on 2/15/2011. To be conservative, actual commission and slippage rates
are slightly increased. For example, actual commission costs for AUD/USD was $2.50 per trade
side, but $3.00 was used. Commission costs are estimated at:
AUD/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$3.00 per trade

EUR/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$3.25 per trade
GBP/JPY ---------------------------------------------------------------------$4.25 per trade
GBP/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$4.25 per trade
USD/CAD --------------------------------------------------------------------$3.00 per trade
USD/CHF --------------------------------------------------------------------$3.00 per trade
USD/JPY ---------------------------------------------------------------------$3.00 per trade
Slippage costs are estimated at:
AUD/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$20.00 per trade

EUR/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$20.00 per trade
GBP/JPY ---------------------------------------------------------------------$60.00 per trade
GBP/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$20.00 per trade
USD/CAD --------------------------------------------------------------------$30.00 per trade
USD/CHF --------------------------------------------------------------------$20.00 per trade
USD/JPY ---------------------------------------------------------------------$20.00 per trade
Trading Systems Tested in this Study

I test a wide variety of 63 trading systems that are available to the open public, located from
a variety of sources (Ammermann 2010; Bollinger 2002; Elder 1993; Katz and McCormick
2000; Murphy 1999; Pruitt and Hill 2003), including some that are self-created. The names and
sources of the trading systems are listed in Table 1. [Note that the strategy numbering system is
not strictly sequential due to changes from the original 64. Strategies 7, 8 and 9 were removed
and strategies 10 and 11 were subdivided into A and B. Original 64 strategies 3 + 2 = 63.] For
more details on the trading system rules, technical indicators, and programming code for each
system, please contact the author directly.
24
[Insert Table 1 about here.]

Trading System Complexity
As a clear definition of trading system complexity is neglected in the scientific literature, I
created an original operationalization that is based on concepts found in various technical
analysis textbooks (e.g., Kaufman 2005; Murphy 1999; Pring 1991; Pruitt and Hill 2003).
Complexity (defined above) is here operationalized via a formative scale created by adding one
point for each of the following complex tactics:
Entry uses more than 1 indicator type or calculation

Entry is dynamic (changes based on volatility)
System has an independently defined exit
Exits are dynamic
System uses more than 1 time frame
System changes modes based on market condition.
The complexity score begins with a minimum score of one and cumulative points are added
if any of the previous six tactics are used. Therefore, all trading systems have a score ranging
from one to a possible maximum of seven. Applying the scoring metric to each of the 63 trading
systems yields the following distribution:
Complexity level 1 -------------------------------------------------------------- 10 (15.9%)

Complexity level 4 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 7 (11.1%)
Complexity level 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1 (1.6%)
Complexity level 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 0 (0.0%)
Scoring Metric
The optimization process generated over 5,000 sets of parameter inputs for each of the 441
cases (63 trading systems x 7 currency pairs). Each set of parameter inputs has associated
(unique) in-sample profit metrics (e.g., net profit, maximum drawdown, number of trades,
percent of trades that were profitable). In order to select the parameter set that would perform the
25
best in the non-optimized out-of-sample data, the parameter sets must be rank ordered. The
ranking method is determined by the person performing the optimization and can vary
significantly, although net profit or Sharpe ratio are used most frequently. Unfortunately, Sharpe
ratio is not available in the TradeStation output data and thus, an alternative was required. I
chose not to use net profit in isolation due to inherent flaws in the metric. First, net profit does
not take the volatility of the returns into account. In addition, net profit only looks at the result as
of the arbitrarily chosen ending date of the test, and it is possible that all days before and after
were lackluster, but experienced a profit spike on the final day of the optimization. In order to
improve the chances of success for out-of-sample testing, I created a scoring metric that
combines multiple profitability measures.
The scoring metric utilizes four performance measurements:
Net Profit [Gross profit Gross Loss]
Average trade [net profit / total number of trades]
Return on account [net profit / maximum drawdown]
Winning days [average days in winning trade * number of winning trades]
The four metrics are ranked as a percentage of the maximum of the parameter sets (N=5,000)
generated by the optimization process, and then summed together. Since there are four
performance measurements, the maximum possible score for a parameter set is 400%, indicating
that the parameter set matched the maximum in all four categories. Furthermore, any parameter
set that resulted in 2 or fewer trades was excluded, as there was insufficient data to ensure that
the results would hold up in the out-of-sample data set. All parameter sets were then sorted by
the scoring metric, and the highest score was selected. The scoring metric is advantageous
because it rewards high net profit, fewer trades (though a minimum of 3 is required), low
26
volatility via return on account, and a higher percentage of time in the market versus being
flat via winning days.
VI. RESULTS
Risk Adjustment
This study follows the risk adjustment methodology used by Neely (1997), Chang and Osler
(1999), LeBaron (2000) and Saacke (2002). The basic procedure is: (1) to prevent data snooping
and curve fitting, the available price data is split in half, (2) optimization is performed on insample data, (3) a scoring metric is applied to the optimized parameter sets, (4) the top
performing set is selected, then (5) applied to the out-of-sample portion of the data. The key riskadjusted return metric, the Sharpe ratio, is used to determine the success of the out-of-sample
results of the technical trade returns. That figure is then compared to the Sharpe ratio on a buy
and hold strategy of the S&P 500 US stock market index over the same time period.
Excess Profit: H1
Recall that H1 predicts that technical trading systems have out-of-sample excess profits that
cannot be accounted for by the bearing of risk. As expected, the optimal trading system
parameters for the in-sample data yield significant net profits for all 441 cases (63 trading
systems x 7 currencies). The real test is to determine excess profits on out-of-sample data and to
compare the risk adjusted returns to that of the S&P 500 index over the same time period.
Approximately two-thirds (=67.1%) of the cases (285 of the 425 (441 16 with no trades)) are
profitable. Seventy-six of the 425 cases (=17.9%) had a Sharpe ratio that outperformed the
benchmark, with an average Sharpe ratio below zero at -0.02186. Table 2 presents the out-ofsample results and comparisons to the S&P 500 Sharpe ratio for the total sample.
27
For a cross-section look at the data, out-of-sample results aggregated on the currency level
are displayed in Table 3.
The Impact of Complexity: H2
Data also show support for H2: i.e., more complex technical trading systems yield higher
returns than less complex systems. Applying the scoring metric, each of the 441 cases were then
aggregated and averaged via the Sharpe ratio for each level of complexity. Figure 5 displays the
average Shape ratio by complexity level.
The overall regression model with the Sharp Ratio as the dependent variable and complexity
as the independent variable is significant (F(1,439)=6.81, p=.009; R2=.015). The individual beta
coefficient for complexity replicates that result (b=.12, t=2.61, p=.009). As presented above, only
one percent of the cases are at the highest complexity levels. When those cases are excluded, the
data are relatively unaffected, only slightly enhanced: (F(1,432)=7.49, p=.006; R2=.017; b=.13).
Isolating the more robust trading systems (complexity level 4 and above) yields much
stronger results. Eighty-nine out of 124 cases (=71.8%) are profitable, 30 out of 124 (=24.2%)
have a Sharpe ratio that beats the benchmark, and the average Sharpe ratio is positive at .00226.
Examination of simple trading systems (complexity 3 and below) shows that 196 out of 301
(=65.1%) are profitable, 46 out of 301 (=15.3%) have a Sharpe ratio that outperforms the
benchmark, and the average Sharpe rate is below zero at -0.03179. Table 4 displays various
performance metrics by complexity level.
28
VII. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This study builds on previous studies of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market by
testing (1) the profitability an extensive number of publicly available technical trading systems
over a 35-year period, and (2) the effect of complexity on strategy returns and robustness. The
profitability of the trading systems is mixed with 67.1% of the trading systems showing positive
net income, and 17.9% with risk-adjusted excess returns (as measured by the Sharpe ratio)
outperforming the risk-adjusted benchmark returns over the same time period. It is not surprising
that some of the trading systems offer sub-par performance as a wide variety of trading strategies
are used in this study, including those that are known to be relatively simple in order to
determine the impact of complexity. However, results are similar to recent evidence (Neely,
Weller, and Ulrich 2009) that reports Sharpe ratios between -.35 and .65. The Sharpe ratio range
for this study is lower, ranging from -0.78 to .34. While the relatively high profitability
percentage (including simple strategies) points to the effectiveness of technical analysis, the
lower risk-adjusted excess returns percentage implies that a good portion, but not all of the
excess returns can be explained as compensation for the bearing of risk.
Looking at average returns across currency levels provides a unique cross-section view of the
results. In a thorough review of technical analysis literature in the forex market, Menkhoff and
Taylor (2007) argue that technical analysis tends to be more profitable with volatile currencies.
Extending this theoretical perspective to the current study, GBPJPYthe most volatile of the
currencieswas expected to provide the most opportunity for profit. However, GBPJPY shows
the lowest profitability percentage (12.7%) and the lowest average Sharpe ratio (-0.16). This
result is surprising as that currency was particularly selected because its high volatility makes it
popular amongst practitioners. Conversely, USDJPY is the most profitable (95.2%) and has the
highest average Sharpe ratio (.077) of the seven currencies tested. These results suggest that
29
strongly trending currencies such as USDJPY vastly outperform volatile currencies such as
GBPJPY. This also supports the oft-used technical analysis phrase, the trend is your friend.
Trends reverse too frequently for highly volatile currencies for trading opportunities to develop,
to be observed, and to then be capitalized on.
The analysis of profitability becomes most interesting when the risk-adjusted profit metrics
are examined in relation to complexity. Excluding complexity level six (which was limited to
only one trading system of the 63), incrementally moving upwards from level one shows a
consistent increase in Sharpe ratios, though there is a slight decrease from complexity level four
to five. Regression analysis shows that complexity is a statistically significant contributor to riskadjusted excess profits (p<.01). Complexity is obviously not the only factor that can determine
risk-adjusted excess returns, as indicated by the relatively low model R2 of .015. Additional
factors that affect profitability include the technical indicators used in the trading system, the
type of stop loss, the foreign currency pair, and most importantly, how capable the theory behind
the trading system is able to take advantage of the target market anomaly and the varying degrees
in which the anomaly is available at a given point in time.
The slight decline in profitability moving from complexity level four to five shows support
for practitioners who prefer to avoid bloated trading systems and lean towards efficiency and
effectiveness (Kaufman 2005; Murphy 1999; Pruitt and Hill 2003). Simply adding random
technical indicators or filters without regard to the underlying theory will lead to a poor trading
system. Overly complicated systems collapse under their own weight and the technical trading
tools must be selected carefully. Similar to the writing process, perfection in trading systems is
achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing more to take away.
(Antoine de Saint-Exupery)
30
To filter out the effects of including relatively simple trading systems, the trading systems
were divided in half (simple systems: complexity levels one through three, and robust systems:
complexity levels four through six). Profitability in both groups is above 50%, though the robust
group outperforms the simple group by 6.7%. Risk-adjusted excess returns for the two groups is
also much better in the robust group, with an average Sharpe ratio of .02 versus -.03 for the
simple group.
In conclusion, these results provide strong evidence supporting statements by earlier
researchers that more complex strategies outperform those that are less complex (e.g., Neely et
al. 2009; Menkhoff and Taylor 2007). Additionally, this implies that technical analysis involves
skill and excess profits are not a product of luck, which flies contrary to the view of efficient
market proponents.
Limitations and Future Research
The most challenging limitation encountered during the course of this study is the vast
amount of time and computing power required for the optimization process, that took six months
to complete using five computers running 24/7. Due to the time constraint, only the top
performing parameter set from each optimization was tested on the out-of-sample data. Further
insight may emerge by examining out-of-sample results on more parameter sets. In addition, the
recency of data from EURUSD and GBPJPY forced a study over a separate time period than the
other five currency pairs, over which the S&P 500 benchmark provided negative returns. This
skewed the percentage of cases that outperformed the benchmark for those two currencies.
Though it is the best of the breed, TradeStation is constantly working to improve their
award winning software platform, including handling multi-core threading, 64-bit technology
and feature set optimizations that will speed up the optimization process and facilitate future
research efforts. For example, TradeStation just released a new update that allows simultaneous
31
optimization and out-of-sample results output (April 2011). Another area of improvement for
TradeStation is the limited data output from the optimization process. The output is in comma
delimited text format rather than modern spreadsheet format and Sharpe ratios are notably
excluded from the output data. Thus, I developed the scoring metric as a suitable replacement for
the Sharpe ratio. Additional challenges with TradeStation include the unique calculation of
Sharpe ratio over the most recent 36 months rather than the whole time period that may have
been a factor in the lower Sharpe ratio results.
Continued improvements to the TradeStation platformin addition to those mentioned
abovewill provide even more avenues for exploration. On June 17, 2010, TradeStation
acquired the Grail Genetic Optimization (GGO) system noted for its superiority in feature set
compared to their own optimization tool. This system includes walk-forward optimization,
additional optimization fitness criteria, and improved analytics. The integration of the GGO is
being beta tested by users (including myself), and is scheduled to be completed in 2011. This is a
big step forward in the area of optimization.
The strongest test of trading systems is to further test them on out-of-sample data in future
periods (cf. Neely et al. 2009). I urge others to pursue such research. Recall that an untested
operationalization of trading system complexity was used here. A comprehensive test of
construct reliability and validity is warranted for the current measurement scale and/or
alternative conceptualizations.
Future analysis can be performed through the study of additional trading systems not
included in this study (publicly available or proprietary), analysis of technical trading systems on
intra-day data, and lastlyan area that arguably needs the most attentiona universally
accepted method of measuring risk-adjusted returns that addresses the flaws of current methods.
32
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37
TABLE 1
List of Trading Systems
#
System Name
ADX and Moving Average Strategy
2
3
Momentum, RSI-Based Strategy with Built-in Money

Management
King Keltner
The Bollinger Bandit
The Thermostat-B
The Dynamic Break Out II
The Super Combo Day Trading Strategy - REMOVED
The Ghost Trader Trading Strategy - REMOVED
The Money Manager Trading Strategy - REMOVED
10A
16
17
18
Triple Screen Trading System-EMA (w/ parabolic exit)

- 1 (long term)
Triple Screen Trading System-EMA (w/ parabolic exit)
- 2 (short term)
Triple Screen Trading System-MACD (w/ parabolic
exit) - 1 (long term)
Triple Screen Trading System-MACD (w/ parabolic
exit) - 2 (short term)
Channel Trading System (Elder)
Welles Wilder's Parabolic and Directional Movement
Systems (Parabolic ADX)
Bollinger Method I: Volatility Breakout (The Squeeze)
Parabolic exit
Bollinger Method I: Volatility Breakout (The Squeeze)
Bollinger exit
Bollinger Method II: Trend Following Parabolic exit
Bollinger Method II: Trend Following Bollinger exit
Close-Only Channel Breakout (no ADX)
19
Close-Only Channel Breakout (ADX)
20
Highest High / Lowest Low Breakouts (no ADX)
21
Highest High / Lowest Low Breakouts (ADX)
22
2 moving average crossover - SMA (no ADX)
10B
11A
11B
12
13
14
15
Source
Building Winning Trading Systems
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
with Tradestation
Trading For A Living
Technical Analysis of the Financial
Markets
Bollinger on Bollinger Bands
The Encyclopedia of Trading
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
System Name
23
2 moving average crossover - EMA (no ADX)
24
2 moving average crossover - Triangular (no ADX)
25
2 moving average crossover - VIDYA (no ADX)
26
2 moving average crossover - SMA (ADX)
27
2 moving average crossover - EMA (ADX)
28
2 moving average crossover - Triangular (ADX)
29
2 moving average crossover - VIDYA (ADX)
30
3 moving average crossover - SMA (no ADX)
31
3 moving average crossover - EMA (no ADX)
32
3 moving average crossover - Triangular (no ADX)
33
3 moving average crossover - VIDYA (no ADX)
34
3 moving average crossover - SMA (ADX)
35
3 moving average crossover - EMA (ADX)
36
3 moving average crossover - Triangular (ADX)
37
3 moving average crossover - VIDYA (ADX)
38
39
40
41
42
moving average slope - SMA

moving average slope - EMA
moving average slope - Triangular
moving average slope - VIDYA
Overbought/Oversold - RSI
43
Overbought/Oversold - Stochastic
44
45
Overbought/Oversold - CCI Avg

Signal Line - Stochastic
46
Signal Line - MACD - SMA - Open
47
Signal Line - MACD - EMA - Open
48
Signal Line - MACD - Triangular - Open
38
Source
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Brian Leip
Brian Leip
Brian Leip
Brian Leip
Strategies
Strategies
Brian Leip
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
System Name
49
Signal Line - MACD - VIDYA - Open
50
Signal Line - MACD - SMA - With Trend
51
Signal Line - MACD - EMA - With Trend
52
Signal Line - MACD - Triangular - With Trend
53
Signal Line - MACD - VIDYA - With Trend
54
55
Signal Line - CCI Average

Zero Line - MACD - SMA
56
Zero Line - MACD - EMA
57
Zero Line - MACD - Triangular
58
Zero Line - MACD - VIDYA
59
60
Zero Line - CCI Average

50 Line - RSI
61
62
63
64
Moving Average Percent Bands - SMA

Moving Average Percent Bands - EMA
Moving Average Percent Bands - Triangular
Moving Average Percent Bands - VIDYA
39
Source
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Brian Leip
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Brian Leip
Strategies
Ammermann
Ammermann
Ammermann
Ammermann
40
TABLE 2
Out-of-Sample Profitability Metrics and Benchmark Comparisons
Currency
Complexity
Total Net
Profit
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Commssn
Annual
ROR
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
AUDUSD
(33,680.00)
10
20.00%
33,738.00
400.00
60.00
-1.81%
(235.98)
2,014.36
-0.23
0.15
NO
NO
ST01
EURUSD
(17,739.50)
66.67%
21,656.50
120.00
19.50
-4.56%
(684.18)
3,050.62
-0.26
-0.08
NO
NO
ST01
GBPJPY
(61,316.08)
38
28.95%
66,967.66
4,560.00
323.00
-13.35%
(1,521.11)
4,358.80
-0.29
-0.08
NO
NO
ST01
GBPUSD
(7,397.50)
15
40.00%
59,394.00
600.00
127.50
-0.45%
(1,160.59)
6,316.96
-0.14
0.15
NO
NO
ST01
USDCAD
(1,179.24)
0.00%
1,179.24
120.00
12.00
-0.07%
(235.13)
514.93
-0.78
0.15
NO
NO
ST01
USDCHF
46,294.25
10
70.00%
3,086.39
400.00
60.00
2.38%
187.25
2,817.06
0.14
0.15
NO
YES
ST01
USDJPY
ST02
AUDUSD
(924.24)
42.86%
20,405.40
280.00
42.00
-0.06%
407.78
3,648.83
0.01
0.15
NO
NO
2,232.00
37.50%
33,814.00
320.00
48.00
0.14%
(52.90)
1,453.17
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST02
EURUSD
8,585.00
87.50%
9,046.50
320.00
52.00
2.30%
613.21
2,233.59
0.22
-0.08
YES
YES
ST02
GBPJPY
(3,521.53)
16.67%
19,430.05
720.00
51.00
-0.97%
(199.00)
4,678.90
-0.03
-0.08
YES
NO
ST02
GBPUSD
63,790.00
20
55.00%
42,065.50
800.00
170.00
3.08%
(337.09)
6,948.92
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST02
USDCAD
18,428.35
20
35.00%
10,430.89
1,200.00
120.00
1.06%
128.57
1,308.06
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST02
USDCHF
13,942.49
17
35.29%
51,217.02
680.00
102.00
0.82%
(1,298.22)
3,579.32
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST02
USDJPY
14,914.36
19
26.32%
51,630.79
760.00
114.00
0.87%
(27.90)
3,210.89
0.15
NO
YES
ST03
AUDUSD
30,572.00
48
31.25%
12,294.00
1,920.00
288.00
1.67%
(145.20)
1,556.63
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST03
EURUSD
3,362.50
25
8.00%
20,834.50
1,000.00
162.50
0.92%
244.83
2,914.91
-0.01
-0.08
YES
YES
ST03
GBPJPY
(12,196.66)
16
18.75%
14,145.02
1,920.00
136.00
-3.21%
(378.96)
4,714.05
-0.08
-0.08
YES
NO
ST03
GBPUSD
82,706.00
24
29.17%
62,457.50
960.00
204.00
3.77%
(879.09)
8,347.46
0.08
0.15
NO
YES
ST03
USDCAD
20,157.11
38
18.42%
7,607.42
2,280.00
228.00
1.15%
88.76
1,378.23
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST03
USDCHF
58,803.82
36
25.00%
41,270.44
1,440.00
216.00
2.89%
(995.16)
3,320.57
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST03
USDJPY
57,835.61
24
12.50%
39,104.86
960.00
144.00
2.85%
(61.58)
2,640.84
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST04
AUDUSD
23,598.00
32
34.38%
13,682.00
1,280.00
192.00
1.32%
(216.95)
2,046.68
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST04
EURUSD
(3,244.00)
25.00%
11,027.00
320.00
52.00
-0.89%
(115.86)
2,516.99
-0.1
-0.08
NO
NO
ST04
GBPJPY
(17,900.50)
33.33%
18,463.66
1,080.00
76.50
-4.60%
(335.16)
4,667.60
-0.11
-0.08
NO
NO
ST04
GBPUSD
169,665.50
37
45.95%
14,601.00
1,480.00
314.50
6.20%
726.13
7,781.67
0.13
0.15
NO
YES
ST04
USDCAD
13,156.01
16
43.75%
7,847.92
960.00
96.00
0.77%
205.41
1,360.56
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST04
USDCHF
94,169.25
27
48.15%
19,115.03
1,080.00
162.00
4.15%
(110.30)
3,069.32
0.1
0.15
NO
YES
Strategy
ST01
Total
Slippage
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST04
USDJPY
ST05
AUDUSD
ST05
Total Net
Profit
41
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
3.36%
(481.94)
2,925.50
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
114.00
1.12%
(259.90)
2,061.14
0.15
NO
YES
400.00
65.00
2.07%
102.00
2,681.05
-0.08
YES
YES
51,853.41
1,440.00
102.00
-11.67%
(1,280.77)
4,308.92
-0.32
-0.08
NO
NO
90,701.50
1,360.00
289.00
-2.47%
(344.49)
7,054.27
-0.04
0.15
NO
NO
YES
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
71,278.75
38
39.47%
37,677.54
1,520.00
228.00
19,616.00
19
21.05%
12,020.00
760.00
EURUSD
7,703.00
10
30.00%
11,803.00
ST05
GBPJPY
(51,853.41)
12
8.33%
ST05
GBPUSD
(48,389.00)
34
38.24%
Annual
ROR
ST05
USDCAD
27,155.66
50.00%
2,063.90
360.00
36.00
1.50%
109.56
1,297.59
0.03
0.15
NO
ST05
USDCHF
101,831.91
21
33.33%
16,373.38
840.00
126.00
4.39%
13.48
3,376.07
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST05
USDJPY
84,745.29
25
56.00%
17,738.51
1,000.00
150.00
3.83%
(125.26)
2,810.00
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST06
AUDUSD
12,526.00
14
28.57%
8,436.00
560.00
84.00
0.74%
(123.10)
2,489.70
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST06
EURUSD
15,803.50
11
45.45%
5,726.50
440.00
71.50
4.10%
464.81
2,492.32
0.13
-0.08
YES
YES
ST06
GBPJPY
(19,335.37)
10
30.00%
26,817.63
1,200.00
85.00
-4.94%
(752.78)
4,574.48
-0.18
-0.08
NO
NO
ST06
GBPUSD
71,487.50
60.00%
28,717.00
200.00
42.50
3.37%
(869.74)
6,641.41
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST06
USDCAD
11,729.65
33.33%
5,780.96
360.00
36.00
0.69%
104.25
1,320.51
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST06
USDCHF
14,018.40
33.33%
29,060.37
240.00
36.00
0.82%
(775.41)
4,583.60
0.01
0.15
NO
ST06
USDJPY
41,346.26
16
75.00%
5,855.30
640.00
96.00
2.16%
1,013.24
2,373.95
0.34
0.15
YES
YES
ST10A
AUDUSD
(2,828.00)
12.50%
3,282.00
320.00
48.00
-0.17%
(108.77)
1,682.42
-0.16
0.15
NO
NO
ST10A
EURUSD
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST10A
GBPJPY
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST10A
GBPUSD
23,018.00
12
33.33%
12,465.50
480.00
102.00
1.29%
822.07
5,850.76
0.14
0.15
NO
YES
ST10A
USDCAD
3,897.76
44.44%
3,932.07
540.00
54.00
0.24%
31.91
1,015.66
-0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST10A
USDCHF
(2,289.55)
0.00%
2,289.55
120.00
18.00
-0.14%
(338.33)
4,127.65
-0.08
0.15
NO
NO
YES
ST10A
USDJPY
21,868.54
15
40.00%
9,459.37
600.00
90.00
1.24%
194.24
2,939.48
0.1
0.15
NO
ST10B
AUDUSD
(11,840.00)
10
10.00%
12,744.00
400.00
60.00
-0.70%
(101.80)
1,738.25
-0.14
0.15
NO
NO
ST10B
EURUSD
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST10B
GBPJPY
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST10B
GBPUSD
17,568.00
12
25.00%
12,112.50
480.00
102.00
1.01%
627.43
5,849.05
0.1
0.15
NO
YES
ST10B
USDCAD
(3,413.40)
0.00%
3,413.40
360.00
36.00
-0.21%
294.41
1,420.62
0.09
0.15
NO
NO
ST10B
USDCHF
6,331.83
10
20.00%
3,164.30
400.00
60.00
0.38%
269.89
2,185.53
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST10B
USDJPY
33,842.93
14
57.14%
4,352.16
560.00
84.00
1.82%
801.28
3,179.51
0.2
0.15
YES
YES
0.15
NO
YES
ST11A
AUDUSD
1,356.00
33.33%
4,802.00
360.00
54.00
0.08%
58.96
2,160.10
-0.04
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST11A
EURUSD
ST11A
GBPJPY
ST11A
Total Net
Profit
42
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
0.00%
0.00%
400.00
85.00
2,768.76
660.00
1,660.72
200.00
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
0.00%
0.00%
GBPUSD
41,615.00
10
40.00%
6,735.50
ST11A
USDCAD
11,013.62
11
45.45%
ST11A
USDCHF
16,390.50
40.00%
Annual
ROR
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
-0.08
-0.08
2.17%
1,342.42
5,107.33
0.27
0.15
YES
YES
66.00
0.65%
196.73
1,037.17
0.15
NO
YES
30.00
0.95%
830.18
2,972.03
0.23
0.15
YES
YES
YES
ST11A
USDJPY
838.54
33.33%
2,998.45
120.00
18.00
0.05%
68.01
2,650.57
-0.03
0.15
NO
ST11B
AUDUSD
(11,034.00)
29
24.14%
12,256.00
1,160.00
174.00
-0.65%
(50.78)
1,791.62
-0.15
0.15
NO
NO
ST11B
EURUSD
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST11B
GBPJPY
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST11B
GBPUSD
21,089.00
33.33%
12,514.00
240.00
51.00
1.20%
1,318.06
5,727.58
0.25
0.15
YES
YES
ST11B
USDCAD
(1,861.59)
14.29%
1,861.59
420.00
42.00
-0.12%
(166.32)
878.39
-0.38
0.15
NO
NO
ST11B
USDCHF
(79,438.09)
0.00%
79,438.09
240.00
36.00
-3.65%
(1,904.90)
2,667.10
-0.76
0.15
NO
NO
ST11B
USDJPY
838.54
33.33%
2,998.45
120.00
18.00
0.05%
68.01
2,650.57
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
NO
5,642.00
80.00
12.00
-0.34%
(806.00)
2,085.57
-0.45
0.15
NO
100.00%
320.00
52.00
4.47%
1,930.22
1,261.23
1.32
-0.08
YES
YES
80.00%
3,553.77
600.00
42.50
2.28%
686.88
3,658.84
0.16
-0.08
YES
YES
(24,780.50)
13
61.54%
47,819.50
520.00
110.50
-1.38%
(750.92)
4,737.72
-0.18
0.15
NO
NO
5,161.99
75.00%
6,705.55
240.00
24.00
0.31%
(16.55)
1,278.33
-0.18
0.15
NO
YES
USDCHF
7,942.26
25
68.00%
15,225.51
1,000.00
150.00
0.48%
(207.09)
2,684.77
0.15
NO
YES
ST12
USDJPY
3,707.59
13
69.23%
7,704.99
520.00
78.00
0.23%
119.72
2,083.50
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST13
AUDUSD
(30,060.00)
15
33.33%
31,336.00
600.00
90.00
-1.64%
(34.05)
2,250.13
-0.19
0.15
NO
NO
YES
ST12
AUDUSD
(5,642.00)
0.00%
ST12
EURUSD
17,372.00
ST12
GBPJPY
8,509.05
ST12
GBPUSD
ST12
USDCAD
ST12
ST13
EURUSD
25,341.00
16.67%
6,896.00
240.00
39.00
6.31%
626.87
3,154.49
0.15
-0.08
YES
ST13
GBPJPY
3,135.40
62.50%
6,618.00
960.00
68.00
0.86%
80.24
5,254.19
0.01
-0.08
YES
YES
ST13
GBPUSD
(24,365.50)
0.00%
24,365.50
120.00
25.50
-1.36%
(1,123.32)
4,776.64
-0.24
0.15
NO
NO
ST13
USDCAD
14,958.03
17
29.41%
9,524.85
1,020.00
102.00
0.87%
(46.39)
1,320.81
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST13
USDCHF
52,410.37
86
40.70%
27,855.83
3,440.00
516.00
2.63%
(154.14)
4,453.15
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST13
USDJPY
143,606.00
33
51.52%
13,633.55
1,320.00
198.00
5.56%
136.91
3,180.23
0.16
0.15
YES
YES
ST14
AUDUSD
61,848.00
71.43%
2,416.00
280.00
42.00
3.01%
(272.98)
1,416.52
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST14
EURUSD
3,504.00
50.00%
3,986.50
160.00
26.00
0.96%
269.54
2,376.34
0.05
-0.08
YES
YES
-0.08
YES
NO
ST14
GBPJPY
(7,317.92)
12
41.67%
17,144.27
1,440.00
102.00
-1.97%
(275.84)
4,234.19
-0.08
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST14
GBPUSD
ST14
USDCAD
ST14
Total Net
Profit
43
Total
Commssn
Annual
ROR
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
1,320.00
280.50
-0.19%
1,708.45
6,891.45
0.04
0.15
NO
NO
14,948.21
900.00
90.00
0.30%
229.24
1,283.94
-0.06
0.15
NO
YES
65.00%
9,181.86
800.00
120.00
1.51%
973.15
2,811.33
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
33
57.58%
17,160.14
1,320.00
198.00
3.47%
270.26
3,027.88
0.08
0.15
NO
YES
33.33%
4,396.00
120.00
18.00
0.19%
121.85
1,457.31
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
YES
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
(3,080.50)
33
42.42%
80,652.00
4,845.33
15
40.00%
USDCHF
27,242.71
20
ST14
USDJPY
74,269.96
ST15
AUDUSD
3,112.00
Total
Slippage
ST15
EURUSD
8,874.00
50.00%
4,853.00
160.00
26.00
2.37%
328.67
2,650.67
0.07
-0.08
YES
ST15
GBPJPY
(16,731.48)
12.50%
17,440.58
960.00
68.00
-4.32%
(758.07)
4,673.23
-0.17
-0.08
NO
NO
ST15
GBPUSD
66,504.50
66.67%
16,798.50
120.00
25.50
3.19%
(725.53)
5,338.65
0.15
0.15
YES
YES
ST15
USDCAD
24,846.36
100.00%
120.00
12.00
1.39%
94.21
1,042.71
0.15
NO
YES
ST15
USDCHF
(5,521.56)
57.14%
20,410.95
280.00
42.00
-0.34%
(639.90)
3,952.65
-0.05
0.15
NO
NO
ST15
USDJPY
12,688.62
10
60.00%
21,903.65
400.00
60.00
0.75%
(589.01)
2,605.88
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST16
AUDUSD
26,936.00
19
42.11%
7,588.00
760.00
114.00
1.49%
(107.50)
1,940.20
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST16
EURUSD
(19,242.50)
25
12.00%
30,464.00
1,000.00
162.50
-4.91%
(367.82)
3,501.65
-0.16
-0.08
NO
NO
NO
ST16
GBPJPY
(45,887.67)
39
25.64%
66,952.87
4,680.00
331.50
-10.55%
(1,352.42)
4,795.24
-0.15
-0.08
NO
ST16
GBPUSD
30,493.50
29
37.93%
64,089.50
1,160.00
246.50
1.66%
(1,000.30)
8,619.66
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST16
USDCAD
1,352.46
23
43.48%
9,473.11
1,380.00
138.00
0.08%
(73.59)
1,010.26
-0.1
0.15
NO
YES
ST16
USDCHF
121,107.33
17
47.06%
17,617.29
680.00
102.00
4.96%
476.57
3,573.04
0.1
0.15
NO
YES
ST16
USDJPY
88,284.19
18
50.00%
9,067.30
720.00
108.00
3.95%
(127.60)
2,876.70
0.11
0.15
NO
YES
ST17
AUDUSD
29,532.00
33
48.48%
20,648.00
1,320.00
198.00
1.62%
(102.95)
1,310.18
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST17
EURUSD
(3,218.00)
52
21.15%
16,265.50
2,080.00
338.00
-0.88%
(143.71)
3,024.87
-0.07
-0.08
YES
NO
ST17
GBPJPY
(20,656.82)
75
28.00%
45,903.24
9,000.00
637.50
-5.24%
(816.70)
4,826.08
-0.08
-0.08
YES
NO
YES
ST17
GBPUSD
80,252.00
37.50%
44,414.00
320.00
68.00
3.68%
(787.35)
8,649.77
0.07
0.15
NO
ST17
USDCAD
15,620.50
10
30.00%
7,095.01
600.00
60.00
0.91%
56.47
1,339.47
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST17
USDCHF
103,275.24
19
36.84%
14,047.29
760.00
114.00
4.43%
(82.36)
3,507.97
0.08
0.15
NO
YES
ST17
USDJPY
139,150.14
53
62.26%
10,504.03
2,120.00
318.00
5.45%
220.01
2,827.67
0.16
0.15
YES
YES
ST18
AUDUSD
13,338.00
42
38.10%
16,524.00
1,680.00
252.00
0.78%
(169.20)
1,206.53
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST18
EURUSD
19,762.00
10
50.00%
5,741.00
400.00
65.00
5.04%
498.43
2,932.94
0.12
-0.08
YES
YES
ST18
GBPJPY
(35,512.38)
17
29.41%
47,256.77
2,040.00
144.50
-8.49%
(1,179.09)
3,431.66
-0.29
-0.08
NO
NO
ST18
GBPUSD
78,160.50
67
41.79%
31,185.00
2,680.00
569.50
3.61%
1,084.92
5,595.00
0.1
0.15
NO
YES
0.15
NO
YES
ST18
USDCAD
31,501.13
30
63.33%
1,682.86
1,800.00
180.00
1.71%
99.93
999.09
0.13
44
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
Total Net
Profit
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
ST18
USDCHF
116,674.22
105
47.62%
18,762.49
4,200.00
630.00
4.83%
1,055.83
3,531.81
0.11
0.15
NO
YES
ST18
USDJPY
146,591.64
203
40.39%
18,965.30
8,120.00
1,218.00
5.64%
9.69
3,264.54
0.18
0.15
YES
YES
ST19
AUDUSD
13,876.00
24
33.33%
10,692.00
960.00
144.00
0.81%
(6.35)
1,413.04
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST19
EURUSD
12,618.00
75.00%
3,619.50
320.00
52.00
3.32%
467.33
2,373.61
0.13
-0.08
YES
YES
ST19
GBPJPY
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST19
GBPUSD
129,551.50
21
57.14%
30,869.50
840.00
178.50
5.19%
1,205.23
8,578.48
0.12
0.15
NO
YES
ST19
USDCAD
(563.82)
86
39.53%
26,639.55
5,160.00
516.00
-0.04%
(302.75)
1,148.66
-0.15
0.15
NO
NO
ST19
USDCHF
11,384.20
48
33.33%
41,323.25
1,920.00
288.00
0.67%
682.52
4,447.52
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST19
USDJPY
56,563.75
24
54.17%
11,196.04
960.00
144.00
2.80%
549.33
3,384.96
0.11
0.15
NO
YES
ST20
AUDUSD
10,582.00
43
41.86%
19,886.00
1,720.00
258.00
0.63%
(169.20)
1,206.53
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST20
EURUSD
18,309.50
55.56%
6,476.50
360.00
58.50
4.70%
469.06
2,845.06
0.11
-0.08
YES
YES
ST20
GBPJPY
(42,262.86)
16
18.75%
52,061.34
1,920.00
136.00
-9.84%
(1,233.22)
4,799.91
-0.18
-0.08
NO
NO
ST20
GBPUSD
82,559.00
66
45.45%
30,785.00
2,640.00
561.00
3.76%
1,126.17
5,591.23
0.11
0.15
NO
YES
YES
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
Annual
ROR
ST20
USDCAD
28,964.61
26
61.54%
1,682.86
1,560.00
156.00
1.59%
54.13
1,001.62
0.12
0.15
NO
ST20
USDCHF
118,975.21
112
44.64%
15,065.36
4,480.00
672.00
4.90%
730.35
3,530.58
0.11
0.15
NO
YES
ST20
USDJPY
141,962.59
214
41.59%
17,725.31
8,560.00
1,284.00
5.52%
(55.59)
3,172.19
0.18
0.15
YES
YES
ST21
AUDUSD
11,848.00
22
31.82%
13,680.00
880.00
132.00
0.70%
(25.85)
1,416.82
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST21
EURUSD
4,424.00
75.00%
3,196.50
160.00
26.00
1.21%
368.67
3,010.58
0.08
-0.08
YES
YES
ST21
GBPJPY
(21,294.92)
0.00%
21,294.92
360.00
25.50
-5.39%
(2,354.70)
4,794.59
-0.52
-0.08
NO
NO
ST21
GBPUSD
(14,242.50)
40.00%
41,995.50
200.00
42.50
-0.83%
(238.51)
4,658.83
-0.06
0.15
NO
NO
ST21
USDCAD
(12,154.30)
24
29.17%
19,141.14
1,440.00
144.00
-0.72%
(4.96)
1,278.77
-0.13
0.15
NO
NO
YES
ST21
USDCHF
41,400.46
15
60.00%
11,471.53
600.00
90.00
2.16%
478.61
3,362.60
0.15
0.15
YES
ST21
USDJPY
122,330.47
27
51.85%
8,802.58
1,080.00
162.00
4.99%
140.92
2,679.56
0.13
0.15
NO
YES
ST22
AUDUSD
5,026.00
14
28.57%
18,442.00
560.00
84.00
0.31%
(104.85)
1,560.98
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST22
EURUSD
(5,797.00)
18
11.11%
22,134.50
720.00
117.00
-1.57%
(23.85)
3,025.90
-0.09
-0.08
NO
NO
ST22
GBPJPY
(51,676.38)
14
14.29%
52,766.21
1,680.00
119.00
-11.63%
(1,415.20)
4,628.82
-0.24
-0.08
NO
NO
ST22
GBPUSD
91,893.50
66.67%
31,291.00
360.00
76.50
4.07%
(749.85)
7,335.40
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST22
USDCAD
29,924.09
10
40.00%
8,742.81
600.00
60.00
1.64%
111.01
1,268.18
0.15
NO
YES
ST22
USDCHF
40,288.31
14
35.71%
31,149.79
560.00
84.00
2.12%
(1,255.65)
3,478.08
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
0.15
NO
YES
ST22
USDJPY
78,797.59
10
40.00%
17,453.03
400.00
60.00
3.63%
(105.63)
2,818.72
0.05
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST23
AUDUSD
ST23
EURUSD
ST23
Total Net
Profit
45
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
0.87%
(92.85)
1,436.05
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
65.00
2.52%
199.29
2,927.88
0.02
-0.08
YES
YES
480.00
34.00
0.47%
(233.21)
4,843.19
-0.01
-0.08
YES
YES
77,888.00
480.00
102.00
3.38%
(1,714.77)
7,296.39
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
14,263.65
1,740.00
174.00
0.99%
101.44
1,318.34
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
YES
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
14,982.00
13
30.77%
11,724.00
520.00
78.00
9,435.00
10
30.00%
9,182.50
400.00
GBPJPY
1,691.87
25.00%
11,985.24
ST23
GBPUSD
71,748.00
12
33.33%
ST23
USDCAD
17,130.74
29
20.69%
Annual
ROR
ST23
USDCHF
72,314.15
16
43.75%
22,907.23
640.00
96.00
3.40%
(568.33)
3,671.07
0.03
0.15
NO
ST23
USDJPY
107,997.92
44.44%
9,957.04
360.00
54.00
4.58%
123.93
2,877.41
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST24
AUDUSD
(12,764.00)
14
21.43%
30,082.00
560.00
84.00
-0.75%
(92.35)
1,488.60
-0.08
0.15
NO
NO
ST24
EURUSD
6,454.50
28.57%
11,346.00
280.00
45.50
1.75%
233.61
2,805.15
-0.01
-0.08
YES
YES
ST24
GBPJPY
(79,341.50)
45
22.22%
93,052.27
5,400.00
382.50
-16.31%
(2,072.38)
4,495.68
-0.31
-0.08
NO
NO
ST24
GBPUSD
105,403.50
66.67%
27,212.50
360.00
76.50
4.50%
(1,386.14)
7,310.08
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST24
USDCAD
16,162.87
22
31.82%
10,129.88
1,320.00
132.00
0.94%
55.29
1,382.26
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST24
USDCHF
38,934.35
50.00%
27,213.06
320.00
48.00
2.05%
(828.42)
3,976.70
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST24
USDJPY
94,051.01
12
41.67%
20,718.13
480.00
72.00
4.14%
(231.65)
2,723.98
0.07
0.15
NO
ST25
AUDUSD
(15,126.00)
26
30.77%
24,292.00
1,040.00
156.00
-0.88%
(226.15)
1,406.53
-0.08
0.15
NO
NO
ST25
EURUSD
3,033.50
21
33.33%
15,632.50
840.00
136.50
0.83%
76.48
2,859.12
-0.02
-0.08
YES
YES
ST25
GBPJPY
(33,681.41)
12.50%
33,681.41
960.00
68.00
-8.11%
(911.62)
5,041.86
-0.19
-0.08
NO
NO
ST25
GBPUSD
119,488.00
12
58.33%
38,547.00
480.00
102.00
4.91%
(953.35)
6,855.48
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST25
USDCAD
9,942.98
37.50%
16,112.32
480.00
48.00
0.59%
172.25
1,260.06
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST25
USDCHF
(294.16)
33.33%
39,762.76
240.00
36.00
-0.02%
(1,455.68)
3,384.09
-0.05
0.15
NO
NO
ST25
USDJPY
0.00%
0.00%
0.15
ST26
AUDUSD
18,342.00
23
39.13%
18,214.00
920.00
138.00
1.05%
(188.65)
1,472.67
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST26
EURUSD
5,878.00
37.50%
11,626.00
320.00
52.00
1.59%
228.45
2,847.58
-0.03
-0.08
YES
YES
ST26
GBPJPY
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
ST26
GBPUSD
115,605.50
17
41.18%
42,659.50
680.00
144.50
4.80%
(328.56)
6,541.97
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST26
USDCAD
14,893.98
25
36.00%
12,307.88
1,500.00
150.00
0.87%
18.92
1,332.37
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST26
USDCHF
36,791.76
10
40.00%
28,820.77
400.00
60.00
1.96%
(1,131.67)
3,577.27
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST26
USDJPY
110,062.02
50.00%
9,684.03
320.00
48.00
4.64%
118.36
2,888.33
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST27
AUDUSD
35,406.00
24
50.00%
5,144.00
960.00
144.00
1.89%
132.25
1,450.67
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
-0.08
YES
YES
ST27
EURUSD
10,051.50
33.33%
8,566.00
360.00
58.50
2.67%
214.70
2,810.34
0.03
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST27
GBPJPY
ST27
GBPUSD
ST27
Total Net
Profit
46
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
0.00%
119.00
3.77%
(1,687.78)
1,080.00
108.00
0.91%
21,239.59
640.00
96.00
14,008.34
440.00
66.00
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
0.00%
82,891.00
14
42.86%
80,498.00
560.00
USDCAD
15,673.57
18
33.33%
12,314.93
ST27
USDCHF
74,142.46
16
43.75%
ST27
USDJPY
91,222.25
11
36.36%
Annual
ROR
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
-0.08
7,091.43
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
99.48
1,366.01
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
3.47%
(508.21)
3,691.92
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
4.05%
105.34
2,915.36
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST28
AUDUSD
22,152.00
28
39.29%
16,842.00
1,120.00
168.00
1.25%
(96.15)
1,496.74
-0.01
0.15
NO
ST28
EURUSD
(11,897.00)
18
11.11%
27,994.50
720.00
117.00
-3.14%
(75.26)
3,191.19
-0.11
-0.08
NO
NO
ST28
GBPJPY
(55,440.52)
43
30.23%
75,315.04
5,160.00
365.50
-12.32%
(1,584.95)
4,731.41
-0.22
-0.08
NO
NO
ST28
GBPUSD
86,196.50
11
54.55%
51,029.50
440.00
93.50
3.88%
(1,156.56)
7,210.00
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST28
USDCAD
10,167.49
30
40.00%
9,834.14
1,800.00
180.00
0.60%
(87.03)
1,206.56
-0.08
0.15
NO
YES
ST28
USDCHF
40,062.52
11
54.55%
35,739.47
440.00
66.00
2.11%
(1,384.60)
3,507.69
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST28
USDJPY
83,557.62
62.50%
13,849.94
320.00
48.00
3.79%
(70.21)
2,925.13
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST29
AUDUSD
(1,182.00)
27
22.22%
27,562.00
1,080.00
162.00
-0.07%
(153.85)
1,600.73
-0.06
0.15
NO
NO
NO
ST29
EURUSD
(18,431.00)
54
20.37%
22,799.00
2,160.00
351.00
-4.72%
(428.03)
3,547.66
-0.15
-0.08
NO
ST29
GBPJPY
(33,681.41)
12.50%
33,681.41
960.00
68.00
-8.11%
(911.62)
5,041.86
-0.19
-0.08
NO
NO
ST29
GBPUSD
119,488.00
12
58.33%
38,547.00
480.00
102.00
4.91%
(953.35)
6,855.48
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST29
USDCAD
(597.76)
24
33.33%
10,941.72
1,440.00
144.00
-0.04%
179.85
1,257.19
-0.1
0.15
NO
NO
ST29
USDCHF
81,356.43
41
36.59%
21,242.65
1,640.00
246.00
3.72%
84.30
3,881.12
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST29
USDJPY
174,209.52
55
56.36%
6,640.89
2,200.00
330.00
6.30%
336.48
2,660.94
0.2
0.15
YES
YES
ST30
AUDUSD
(11,322.00)
17
23.53%
27,774.00
680.00
102.00
-0.67%
(369.40)
2,379.10
-0.08
0.15
NO
NO
ST30
EURUSD
1,554.50
28.57%
14,916.00
280.00
45.50
0.43%
25.28
2,492.36
-0.04
-0.08
YES
YES
NO
ST30
GBPJPY
(39,203.27)
12
16.67%
39,203.27
1,440.00
102.00
-9.24%
(1,335.40)
4,059.20
-0.36
-0.08
NO
ST30
GBPUSD
28,783.50
77.78%
60,175.50
360.00
76.50
1.58%
(1,814.17)
7,110.27
0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST30
USDCAD
16,179.58
30
40.00%
5,878.52
1,800.00
180.00
0.94%
(40.44)
1,134.65
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST30
USDCHF
38,161.67
42.86%
46,099.94
280.00
42.00
2.02%
(1,386.22)
3,161.72
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST30
USDJPY
62,755.91
11
45.45%
15,293.32
440.00
66.00
3.04%
(326.18)
2,826.20
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST31
AUDUSD
26,212.00
23
34.78%
10,186.00
920.00
138.00
1.45%
(58.75)
1,322.56
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST31
EURUSD
5,554.50
28.57%
8,576.50
280.00
45.50
1.51%
62.94
3,165.41
-0.02
-0.08
YES
YES
ST31
GBPJPY
(14,345.92)
22.22%
14,345.92
1,080.00
76.50
-3.74%
(260.74)
4,397.98
-0.07
-0.08
YES
NO
0.15
NO
YES
ST31
GBPUSD
67,688.00
12
41.67%
80,169.50
480.00
102.00
3.23%
(1,980.03)
6,736.41
0.05
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST31
USDCAD
ST31
USDCHF
ST31
Total Net
Profit
47
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
1.45%
184.03
1,234.58
0.15
NO
YES
54.00
0.59%
(1,039.75)
3,599.06
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
400.00
60.00
4.26%
(56.73)
2,686.19
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
39,078.00
1,360.00
204.00
-1.82%
(509.10)
1,345.75
-0.15
0.15
NO
NO
12,999.00
320.00
52.00
2.71%
267.91
2,564.80
0.05
-0.08
YES
YES
NO
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
26,057.69
17
29.41%
7,503.38
1,020.00
102.00
9,966.70
44.44%
38,853.66
360.00
USDJPY
97,683.34
10
40.00%
7,047.21
ST32
AUDUSD
(33,914.00)
34
32.35%
ST32
EURUSD
10,198.00
25.00%
Annual
ROR
ST32
GBPJPY
(19,200.03)
16.67%
19,200.03
720.00
51.00
-4.90%
(642.39)
4,187.42
-0.18
-0.08
NO
ST32
GBPUSD
8,465.00
10
50.00%
67,375.50
400.00
85.00
0.51%
(1,713.21)
7,486.71
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST32
USDCAD
24,657.21
17
47.06%
8,453.16
1,020.00
102.00
1.38%
112.35
1,270.84
0.15
NO
YES
ST32
USDCHF
51,272.36
10
50.00%
15,184.09
400.00
60.00
2.59%
(733.86)
3,173.88
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST32
USDJPY
53,156.10
50.00%
27,176.22
320.00
48.00
2.66%
(18.52)
2,764.15
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST33
AUDUSD
1,324.00
16
31.25%
14,964.00
640.00
96.00
0.08%
(263.00)
1,302.65
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST33
EURUSD
7,560.50
66.67%
5,886.50
120.00
19.50
2.04%
174.29
3,371.19
0.02
-0.08
YES
YES
ST33
GBPJPY
(30,831.01)
22.22%
30,831.01
1,080.00
76.50
-7.50%
(823.40)
4,584.47
-0.18
-0.08
NO
NO
YES
ST33
GBPUSD
15,656.50
11
27.27%
94,811.00
440.00
93.50
0.91%
(2,770.24)
6,131.38
0.15
NO
ST33
USDCAD
10,905.59
57.14%
11,291.34
420.00
42.00
0.65%
121.86
1,276.98
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST33
USDCHF
(4,564.20)
25.00%
60,061.57
320.00
48.00
-0.28%
(1,558.03)
3,394.88
-0.07
0.15
NO
NO
ST33
USDJPY
111,451.21
23
60.87%
8,977.83
920.00
138.00
4.68%
469.41
2,850.63
0.14
0.15
NO
YES
ST34
AUDUSD
4,168.00
17
29.41%
22,134.00
680.00
102.00
0.26%
(498.15)
2,104.05
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST34
EURUSD
7,931.00
50.00%
13,369.50
240.00
39.00
2.13%
273.48
2,734.49
0.05
-0.08
YES
YES
ST34
GBPJPY
(34,840.26)
13
23.08%
36,422.45
1,560.00
110.50
-8.35%
(1,198.46)
4,265.15
-0.33
-0.08
NO
NO
ST34
GBPUSD
14,309.00
50.00%
53,497.00
240.00
51.00
0.84%
(1,548.28)
6,097.55
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST34
USDCAD
16,596.05
24
50.00%
5,270.66
1,440.00
144.00
0.96%
121.38
1,323.51
-0.01
0.15
NO
ST34
USDCHF
32,879.14
28.57%
16,486.80
280.00
42.00
1.78%
(97.79)
3,484.62
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST34
USDJPY
48,210.29
10
20.00%
32,099.41
400.00
60.00
2.46%
(164.97)
2,808.73
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST35
AUDUSD
7,984.00
16
37.50%
10,550.00
640.00
96.00
0.48%
(71.35)
2,419.80
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST35
EURUSD
6,354.50
28.57%
8,876.00
280.00
45.50
1.72%
98.36
3,077.79
-0.02
-0.08
YES
YES
ST35
GBPJPY
(1,353.57)
50.00%
11,071.43
240.00
17.00
-0.38%
(123.81)
4,328.38
-0.05
-0.08
YES
NO
ST35
GBPUSD
83,347.50
60.00%
30,447.00
200.00
42.50
3.79%
(865.60)
7,077.44
0.1
0.15
NO
YES
ST35
USDCAD
23,836.00
12
50.00%
8,167.96
720.00
72.00
1.34%
184.57
1,249.73
0.15
NO
YES
0.15
NO
YES
ST35
USDCHF
46,557.20
10
30.00%
26,176.55
400.00
60.00
2.39%
(513.41)
3,927.27
0.05
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST35
USDJPY
ST36
AUDUSD
ST36
Total Net
Profit
48
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
3.90%
(194.53)
2,893.47
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
72.00
1.73%
86.35
2,390.68
0.08
0.15
NO
YES
120.00
19.50
3.45%
627.17
2,987.94
0.17
-0.08
YES
YES
22,181.82
1,440.00
102.00
-5.29%
(832.36)
4,174.36
-0.23
-0.08
NO
NO
16,352.50
440.00
93.50
0.70%
234.44
5,847.70
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
YES
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
86,606.31
44.44%
10,534.70
360.00
54.00
31,838.00
12
33.33%
6,128.00
480.00
EURUSD
13,170.50
100.00%
ST36
GBPJPY
(20,862.52)
12
16.67%
ST36
GBPUSD
11,866.50
11
45.45%
Annual
ROR
ST36
USDCAD
23,689.78
13
53.85%
5,812.94
780.00
78.00
1.33%
62.04
1,242.27
0.01
0.15
NO
ST36
USDCHF
60,834.60
50.00%
8,800.26
240.00
36.00
2.97%
(421.53)
3,898.15
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST36
USDJPY
58,295.95
50.00%
28,504.24
320.00
48.00
2.87%
15.80
2,714.24
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST37
AUDUSD
(3,490.00)
10
20.00%
24,694.00
400.00
60.00
-0.21%
(720.25)
2,152.86
-0.06
0.15
NO
NO
ST37
EURUSD
12,152.50
15
33.33%
5,742.50
600.00
97.50
3.20%
714.85
2,937.01
0.2
-0.08
YES
YES
ST37
GBPJPY
(57,409.52)
10
10.00%
57,409.52
1,200.00
85.00
-12.67%
(1,316.82)
3,936.23
-0.27
-0.08
NO
NO
ST37
GBPUSD
44,932.00
37.50%
71,692.50
320.00
68.00
2.32%
(1,780.42)
6,501.90
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST37
USDCAD
9,254.65
50.00%
4,120.87
240.00
24.00
0.55%
(23.84)
991.79
-0.09
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST37
USDCHF
16,877.08
42.86%
25,173.49
280.00
42.00
0.97%
(1,057.90)
3,650.13
-0.02
0.15
NO
ST37
USDJPY
95,305.79
19
63.16%
7,119.82
760.00
114.00
4.18%
443.45
2,953.51
0.12
0.15
NO
YES
ST38
AUDUSD
6,844.00
26
34.62%
22,374.00
1,040.00
156.00
0.41%
(319.40)
1,505.31
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST38
EURUSD
(2,923.00)
22
40.91%
15,055.00
880.00
143.00
-0.80%
12.66
2,944.86
-0.07
-0.08
YES
NO
ST38
GBPJPY
(31,077.32)
19
26.32%
32,200.28
2,280.00
161.50
-7.56%
(1,138.28)
4,571.07
-0.25
-0.08
NO
NO
ST38
GBPUSD
148,199.00
26
46.15%
37,092.50
1,040.00
221.00
5.68%
312.80
7,538.70
0.13
0.15
NO
YES
ST38
USDCAD
905.88
29
37.93%
13,932.63
1,740.00
174.00
0.06%
(52.77)
1,018.60
-0.11
0.15
NO
YES
ST38
USDCHF
20,978.51
19
52.63%
17,739.93
760.00
114.00
1.19%
(411.70)
4,004.81
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST38
USDJPY
93,163.02
24
50.00%
14,610.64
960.00
144.00
4.11%
70.24
2,874.28
0.09
0.15
NO
ST39
AUDUSD
854.00
31
25.81%
31,168.00
1,240.00
186.00
0.05%
(387.80)
1,975.08
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST39
EURUSD
20,542.50
15
46.67%
8,792.00
600.00
97.50
5.22%
455.14
2,712.92
0.09
-0.08
YES
YES
ST39
GBPJPY
3,183.39
11
45.45%
11,026.94
1,320.00
93.50
0.88%
(54.32)
4,060.20
-0.08
YES
YES
ST39
GBPUSD
82,627.50
25
44.00%
13,855.50
1,000.00
212.50
3.76%
569.98
6,042.99
0.21
0.15
YES
YES
ST39
USDCAD
(18,628.50)
28
28.57%
25,966.36
1,680.00
168.00
-1.07%
121.22
1,254.90
-0.15
0.15
NO
NO
ST39
USDCHF
89,769.17
40
62.50%
15,533.39
1,600.00
240.00
4.00%
437.66
3,085.33
0.12
0.15
NO
YES
ST39
USDJPY
109,226.20
23
60.87%
12,950.40
920.00
138.00
4.61%
187.83
2,782.03
0.12
0.15
NO
YES
0.15
NO
NO
ST40
AUDUSD
(43,152.00)
47
27.66%
51,504.00
1,880.00
282.00
-2.24%
(449.05)
2,178.32
-0.17
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST40
EURUSD
ST40
GBPJPY
ST40
Total Net
Profit
49
Total
Commssn
Annual
ROR
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
400.00
65.00
-0.37%
25.20
2,828.64
-0.07
-0.08
YES
NO
27,977.67
1,320.00
93.50
-6.17%
(1,046.30)
4,476.09
-0.23
-0.08
NO
NO
55.56%
10,847.00
720.00
153.00
2.48%
599.95
5,618.64
0.11
0.15
NO
YES
24
58.33%
7,625.28
1,440.00
144.00
0.68%
(99.29)
983.47
-0.07
0.15
NO
YES
20
60.00%
9,615.55
800.00
120.00
3.42%
642.16
3,137.12
0.18
0.15
YES
YES
YES
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
(1,325.00)
10
40.00%
15,873.00
(24,725.35)
11
36.36%
GBPUSD
48,737.00
18
ST40
USDCAD
11,434.09
ST40
USDCHF
72,986.56
Total
Slippage
ST40
USDJPY
96,620.30
29
48.28%
10,783.84
1,160.00
174.00
4.22%
216.03
2,694.03
0.09
0.15
NO
ST41
AUDUSD
16,470.00
50
36.00%
13,348.00
2,000.00
300.00
0.95%
(81.45)
1,694.63
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST41
EURUSD
10,735.00
30
43.33%
13,920.50
1,200.00
195.00
2.85%
589.06
2,726.17
0.03
-0.08
YES
YES
ST41
GBPJPY
(39,589.33)
27
22.22%
46,243.93
3,240.00
229.50
-9.31%
(1,054.50)
3,783.36
-0.26
-0.08
NO
NO
ST41
GBPUSD
84,263.00
42
45.24%
52,585.50
1,680.00
357.00
3.82%
(696.99)
6,849.40
0.08
0.15
NO
YES
ST41
USDCAD
5,531.13
58
44.83%
9,332.16
3,480.00
348.00
0.34%
194.58
1,323.94
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST41
USDCHF
32,391.73
196
49.49%
14,693.67
7,840.00
1,176.00
1.75%
901.69
3,141.07
0.16
0.15
YES
YES
ST41
USDJPY
94,434.51
52
44.23%
17,587.33
2,080.00
312.00
4.15%
263.76
2,946.18
0.08
0.15
NO
YES
NO
ST42
AUDUSD
(28,142.00)
102
27.45%
33,940.00
4,080.00
612.00
-1.55%
(266.05)
1,545.52
-0.14
0.15
NO
ST42
EURUSD
(8,848.00)
12
16.67%
8,981.50
480.00
78.00
-2.37%
(589.87)
1,746.19
-0.43
-0.08
NO
NO
ST42
GBPJPY
(27,486.89)
92
18.48%
34,468.08
11,040.00
782.00
-6.78%
(616.64)
4,342.23
-0.13
-0.08
NO
NO
ST42
GBPUSD
(171,602.00)
332
39.76%
175,261.00
13,280.00
2,822.00
-6.24%
(874.72)
7,187.58
0.02
0.15
NO
NO
ST42
USDCAD
(22,481.05)
11
27.27%
22,849.83
660.00
66.00
-1.27%
(186.50)
1,259.62
-0.16
0.15
NO
NO
ST42
USDCHF
84,537.08
44
25.00%
18,061.91
1,760.00
264.00
3.83%
(57.12)
3,642.15
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST42
USDJPY
82,858.01
77
33.77%
10,253.50
3,080.00
462.00
3.77%
(45.98)
3,117.26
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST43
AUDUSD
(47,462.00)
237
36.29%
47,596.00
9,480.00
1,422.00
-2.43%
(97.50)
1,259.48
-0.3
0.15
NO
NO
NO
ST43
EURUSD
(660.50)
17
35.29%
3,981.00
680.00
110.50
-0.18%
(55.04)
1,105.85
-0.19
-0.08
NO
ST43
GBPJPY
(4,949.82)
21
23.81%
13,428.00
2,520.00
178.50
-1.35%
(599.96)
4,623.89
-0.15
-0.08
NO
NO
ST43
GBPUSD
(85,555.00)
130
37.69%
87,624.50
5,200.00
1,105.00
-3.86%
(2,112.25)
4,542.71
-0.4
0.15
NO
NO
ST43
USDCAD
(8,064.45)
118
38.14%
10,356.63
7,080.00
708.00
-0.48%
(188.56)
760.73
-0.38
0.15
NO
NO
ST43
USDCHF
(34,012.55)
389
45.76%
48,971.39
15,560.00
2,334.00
-1.83%
(522.72)
2,017.60
-0.16
0.15
NO
NO
ST43
USDJPY
22,343.78
437
45.08%
14,909.37
17,480.00
2,622.00
1.26%
21.74
2,412.84
0.15
NO
YES
ST44
AUDUSD
(4,770.00)
40.00%
4,924.00
200.00
30.00
-0.29%
(162.42)
1,879.63
-0.14
0.15
NO
NO
ST44
EURUSD
(6,846.00)
0.00%
6,846.00
160.00
26.00
-1.85%
(978.00)
2,474.38
-0.46
-0.08
NO
NO
ST44
GBPJPY
0.00%
0.00%
-0.08
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST44
GBPUSD
ST44
USDCAD
ST44
Total Net
Profit
50
Total
Commssn
Annual
ROR
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
240.00
51.00
-0.14%
(83.00)
5,272.47
-0.02
0.15
NO
NO
6,633.44
360.00
36.00
-0.40%
135.56
1,328.09
-0.09
0.15
NO
NO
38.58%
77,988.02
10,680.00
1,602.00
-2.90%
(330.94)
3,093.19
-0.1
0.15
NO
NO
50.00%
6,932.04
80.00
12.00
0.22%
184.50
3,209.36
0.02
0.15
NO
YES
880
39.89%
47,442.00
35,200.00
5,280.00
-0.92%
(499.30)
1,555.76
-0.13
0.15
NO
NO
NO
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
(2,241.00)
16.67%
19,794.00
(6,633.44)
16.67%
USDCHF
(59,102.61)
267
ST44
USDJPY
3,609.37
ST45
AUDUSD
(15,920.00)
Total
Slippage
ST45
EURUSD
(39,928.50)
229
33.19%
44,536.50
9,160.00
1,488.50
-9.38%
(650.40)
3,486.92
-0.24
-0.08
NO
ST45
GBPJPY
(38,136.29)
235
36.60%
44,412.69
28,200.00
1,997.50
-9.02%
(464.80)
4,974.80
-0.18
-0.08
NO
NO
ST45
GBPUSD
(129,040.00)
1380
43.12%
157,015.50
55,200.00
11,730.00
-5.18%
(1,133.83)
8,502.83
-0.08
0.15
NO
NO
ST45
USDCAD
(82,947.51)
1034
37.04%
84,564.18
62,040.00
6,204.00
-3.77%
(310.36)
1,112.86
-0.35
0.15
NO
NO
ST45
USDCHF
(46,598.52)
1027
44.79%
88,801.52
41,080.00
6,162.00
-2.39%
(1,544.03)
3,252.97
-0.13
0.15
NO
NO
ST45
USDJPY
42,307.78
987
43.67%
32,044.58
39,480.00
5,922.00
2.20%
202.74
3,255.13
0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST46
AUDUSD
13,334.00
21
47.62%
15,678.00
840.00
126.00
0.78%
(71.15)
1,521.22
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST46
EURUSD
(28,512.00)
25.00%
28,512.00
320.00
52.00
-7.00%
(813.21)
2,741.22
-0.35
-0.08
NO
NO
NO
ST46
GBPJPY
(7,938.20)
55.56%
21,773.57
1,080.00
76.50
-2.13%
(161.28)
5,095.26
-0.04
-0.08
YES
ST46
GBPUSD
(27,051.50)
19
36.84%
127,699.00
760.00
161.50
-1.50%
(2,671.14)
6,920.28
-0.11
0.15
NO
NO
ST46
USDCAD
(32,886.92)
31
22.58%
33,209.15
1,860.00
186.00
-1.78%
(40.35)
1,161.19
-0.22
0.15
NO
NO
ST46
USDCHF
19,738.77
11
45.45%
27,606.73
440.00
66.00
1.13%
(1,162.80)
3,587.08
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST46
USDJPY
(25,388.54)
65
40.00%
65,670.19
2,600.00
390.00
-1.41%
379.26
2,932.38
-0.03
0.15
NO
NO
ST47
AUDUSD
(1,882.00)
22
31.82%
21,280.00
880.00
132.00
-0.12%
(11.85)
1,480.20
-0.05
0.15
NO
NO
ST47
EURUSD
13,191.00
33.33%
7,086.50
240.00
39.00
3.46%
373.19
2,966.23
0.08
-0.08
YES
YES
ST47
GBPJPY
(35,625.08)
18
27.78%
43,435.98
2,160.00
153.00
-8.51%
(1,247.05)
4,804.99
-0.19
-0.08
NO
NO
YES
ST47
GBPUSD
123,483.50
44.44%
52,104.00
360.00
76.50
5.02%
(1,433.85)
6,955.01
0.1
0.15
NO
ST47
USDCAD
(17,533.74)
42
26.19%
26,205.48
2,520.00
252.00
-1.01%
(214.79)
1,011.71
-0.19
0.15
NO
NO
ST47
USDCHF
70,567.31
116
43.97%
29,334.97
4,640.00
696.00
3.34%
227.09
4,202.08
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST47
USDJPY
71,362.95
37.50%
15,205.68
320.00
48.00
3.37%
(167.66)
2,827.91
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST48
AUDUSD
(5,448.00)
23
39.13%
18,460.00
920.00
138.00
-0.33%
(197.15)
1,445.80
-0.06
0.15
NO
NO
ST48
EURUSD
(22,608.50)
33.33%
22,608.50
360.00
58.50
-5.69%
(412.71)
2,584.78
-0.27
-0.08
NO
NO
ST48
GBPJPY
(40,549.44)
22
18.18%
44,518.57
2,640.00
187.00
-9.51%
(936.48)
5,115.08
-0.17
-0.08
NO
NO
ST48
GBPUSD
43,942.50
35
54.29%
59,897.00
1,400.00
297.50
2.28%
142.72
7,468.65
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
0.15
NO
NO
ST48
USDCAD
(36,089.27)
29
24.14%
36,089.27
1,740.00
174.00
-1.93%
(180.01)
1,329.05
-0.2
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST48
USDCHF
ST48
USDJPY
ST49
Total Net
Profit
51
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
2.12%
(858.63)
3,696.63
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
342.00
-0.95%
523.97
2,713.34
-0.02
0.15
NO
NO
5,320.00
798.00
1.62%
(43.75)
1,449.93
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
4,919.50
520.00
84.50
5.84%
708.35
3,118.80
0.19
-0.08
YES
YES
46,979.71
1,320.00
93.50
-9.91%
(1,044.61)
4,522.56
-0.22
-0.08
NO
NO
NO
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
40,449.65
11
54.55%
28,239.90
440.00
66.00
(16,485.30)
57
42.11%
61,676.92
2,280.00
AUDUSD
29,542.00
133
35.34%
11,616.00
ST49
EURUSD
23,245.50
13
84.62%
ST49
GBPJPY
(42,601.56)
11
54.55%
Annual
ROR
ST49
GBPUSD
(17,524.50)
17
41.18%
61,424.00
680.00
144.50
-1.01%
(918.85)
7,144.90
0.01
0.15
NO
ST49
USDCAD
(17,564.55)
40
37.50%
20,977.68
2,400.00
240.00
-1.01%
(18.46)
1,335.13
-0.15
0.15
NO
NO
ST49
USDCHF
16,602.12
16
37.50%
45,538.77
640.00
96.00
0.96%
(640.31)
3,696.14
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST49
USDJPY
78,000.43
45
44.44%
17,861.64
1,800.00
270.00
3.60%
(340.60)
2,543.40
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST50
AUDUSD
1,692.00
18
38.89%
20,940.00
720.00
108.00
0.10%
(188.75)
1,439.36
-0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST50
EURUSD
(14,285.50)
28.57%
18,516.00
280.00
45.50
-3.73%
(439.11)
2,251.65
-0.24
-0.08
NO
NO
ST50
GBPJPY
(5,800.36)
37.50%
19,413.07
960.00
68.00
-1.57%
(187.67)
4,734.92
-0.05
-0.08
YES
NO
ST50
GBPUSD
58,496.50
51
62.75%
47,350.50
2,040.00
433.50
2.88%
(333.63)
6,248.63
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
NO
ST50
USDCAD
(7,579.03)
23
39.13%
16,892.79
1,380.00
138.00
-0.46%
87.43
1,110.82
-0.14
0.15
NO
ST50
USDCHF
48,466.55
16
37.50%
30,167.90
640.00
96.00
2.47%
(237.91)
3,648.15
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST50
USDJPY
58,605.81
40
52.50%
10,768.98
1,600.00
240.00
2.88%
548.84
2,747.72
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST51
AUDUSD
(10,262.00)
17
23.53%
21,602.00
680.00
102.00
-0.61%
(52.35)
1,416.18
-0.07
0.15
NO
NO
ST51
EURUSD
9,471.00
33.33%
10,846.50
240.00
39.00
2.53%
155.84
3,044.67
0.01
-0.08
YES
YES
ST51
GBPJPY
(28,211.69)
15
33.33%
36,870.30
1,800.00
127.50
-6.94%
(872.23)
4,115.20
-0.18
-0.08
NO
NO
ST51
GBPUSD
66,860.50
42.86%
56,395.50
280.00
59.50
3.20%
(1,215.60)
7,373.61
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST51
USDCAD
(4,096.46)
33
36.36%
15,975.44
1,980.00
198.00
-0.25%
(177.35)
1,063.48
-0.14
0.15
NO
NO
YES
ST51
USDCHF
35,791.37
12
33.33%
29,123.54
480.00
72.00
1.91%
(827.12)
3,600.52
0.15
NO
ST51
USDJPY
72,258.21
41
56.10%
15,683.26
1,640.00
246.00
3.40%
78.94
2,722.55
0.1
0.15
NO
YES
ST52
AUDUSD
(8,878.00)
18
33.33%
25,444.00
720.00
108.00
-0.53%
(197.00)
1,392.18
-0.08
0.15
NO
NO
ST52
EURUSD
(24,268.50)
22.22%
24,268.50
360.00
58.50
-6.07%
(605.43)
2,279.50
-0.31
-0.08
NO
NO
ST52
GBPJPY
(36,503.51)
22.22%
45,200.42
1,080.00
76.50
-8.69%
(874.68)
4,672.39
-0.2
-0.08
NO
NO
ST52
GBPUSD
28,393.50
29
51.72%
76,060.50
1,160.00
246.50
1.56%
(148.49)
7,274.80
0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST52
USDCAD
(23,662.17)
44
27.27%
23,824.57
2,640.00
264.00
-1.33%
(183.75)
1,304.22
-0.22
0.15
NO
NO
ST52
USDCHF
102,209.43
27
40.74%
21,714.44
1,080.00
162.00
4.40%
325.77
3,370.16
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
0.15
NO
YES
ST52
USDJPY
57,982.31
43
51.16%
26,565.99
1,720.00
258.00
2.86%
424.98
2,712.22
0.06
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST53
AUDUSD
ST53
EURUSD
ST53
Total Net
Profit
52
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
1.71%
14.77
1,374.98
0.15
NO
YES
65.00
2.41%
345.80
3,152.88
0.07
-0.08
YES
YES
840.00
59.50
-10.19%
(1,331.33)
4,207.59
-0.29
-0.08
NO
NO
95,214.00
320.00
68.00
-0.04%
(2,221.10)
6,775.45
-0.02
0.15
NO
NO
19,164.12
1,260.00
126.00
-0.73%
146.86
1,285.97
-0.14
0.15
NO
NO
YES
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
31,420.00
55
41.82%
17,916.00
2,200.00
330.00
9,015.00
10
80.00%
8,916.50
400.00
GBPJPY
(44,064.60)
0.00%
44,064.60
ST53
GBPUSD
(638.00)
50.00%
ST53
USDCAD
(12,378.11)
21
38.10%
Annual
ROR
ST53
USDCHF
5,038.95
50.00%
31,569.70
240.00
36.00
0.31%
(753.85)
3,370.04
-0.03
0.15
NO
ST53
USDJPY
105,354.96
60
46.67%
13,061.75
2,400.00
360.00
4.50%
114.12
2,968.67
0.13
0.15
NO
YES
ST54
AUDUSD
40,906.00
94
32.98%
12,698.00
3,760.00
564.00
2.14%
43.25
1,386.10
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST54
EURUSD
4,541.00
46
28.26%
14,348.50
1,840.00
299.00
1.24%
86.43
3,078.28
-0.01
-0.08
YES
YES
ST54
GBPJPY
(36,366.90)
52
17.31%
47,223.02
6,240.00
442.00
-8.66%
(1,100.09)
4,091.31
-0.19
-0.08
NO
NO
ST54
GBPUSD
82,180.50
367
36.78%
58,464.00
14,680.00
3,119.50
3.75%
1,271.05
7,508.15
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST54
USDCAD
(11,376.47)
142
22.54%
22,990.04
8,520.00
852.00
-0.67%
(102.77)
1,383.45
-0.13
0.15
NO
NO
ST54
USDCHF
134,080.59
108
39.81%
18,546.28
4,320.00
648.00
5.31%
741.55
3,849.77
0.14
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST54
USDJPY
138,190.30
145
42.07%
9,712.98
5,800.00
870.00
5.42%
121.82
2,885.26
0.16
0.15
YES
ST55
AUDUSD
11,130.00
25
36.00%
15,968.00
1,000.00
150.00
0.66%
(272.15)
1,540.88
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST55
EURUSD
(5,785.50)
28.57%
14,846.00
280.00
45.50
-1.57%
(41.89)
3,258.82
-0.1
-0.08
NO
NO
ST55
GBPJPY
25,973.86
29
51.72%
6,014.45
3,480.00
246.50
6.45%
748.51
4,281.70
0.15
-0.08
YES
YES
ST55
GBPUSD
23,876.50
11
36.36%
114,241.00
440.00
93.50
1.34%
(2,333.85)
6,898.56
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST55
USDCAD
1,651.29
25
24.00%
14,353.97
1,500.00
150.00
0.10%
58.67
1,370.86
-0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST55
USDCHF
34,394.26
15
46.67%
20,691.47
600.00
90.00
1.85%
(588.05)
3,828.49
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST55
USDJPY
75,192.62
44.44%
9,958.32
360.00
54.00
3.50%
102.61
2,911.33
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
YES
ST56
AUDUSD
12,978.00
12
25.00%
11,924.00
480.00
72.00
0.76%
(97.85)
1,435.38
-0.02
0.15
NO
ST56
EURUSD
8,481.00
33.33%
8,206.50
240.00
39.00
2.27%
167.27
2,999.01
0.02
-0.08
YES
YES
ST56
GBPJPY
4,115.99
33.33%
11,985.24
360.00
25.50
1.13%
(233.21)
4,843.19
-0.08
YES
YES
ST56
GBPUSD
76,689.50
13
46.15%
81,288.00
520.00
110.50
3.56%
(1,644.78)
7,175.85
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST56
USDCAD
14,005.31
24
25.00%
15,119.87
1,440.00
144.00
0.82%
175.23
1,333.82
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST56
USDCHF
63,739.57
18
38.89%
28,403.22
720.00
108.00
3.08%
(433.22)
3,741.74
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST56
USDJPY
95,165.90
10
40.00%
13,574.67
400.00
60.00
4.18%
105.34
2,915.36
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST57
AUDUSD
7,958.00
27
37.04%
18,388.00
1,080.00
162.00
0.48%
(180.65)
1,573.18
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
-0.08
YES
YES
ST57
EURUSD
6,821.50
44.44%
9,096.00
360.00
58.50
1.84%
264.29
2,859.48
-0.01
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST57
GBPJPY
ST57
GBPUSD
ST57
Total Net
Profit
53
Total
Commssn
Annual
ROR
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
240.00
17.00
-0.82%
(161.30)
4,827.08
-0.03
-0.08
YES
NO
42,138.00
440.00
93.50
4.00%
(679.85)
7,490.65
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
40.74%
8,329.64
1,620.00
162.00
0.48%
152.52
1,420.05
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
15
33.33%
27,759.08
600.00
90.00
1.98%
(89.65)
3,844.59
0.02
0.15
NO
YES
33.33%
19,767.81
360.00
54.00
3.46%
(337.30)
3,366.59
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
NO
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
(2,963.73)
50.00%
10,433.41
89,826.50
11
54.55%
USDCAD
8,017.70
27
ST57
USDCHF
37,242.69
ST57
USDJPY
73,849.38
Total
Slippage
ST58
AUDUSD
(15,202.00)
27
33.33%
22,036.00
1,080.00
162.00
-0.88%
(226.15)
1,427.18
-0.08
0.15
NO
ST58
EURUSD
13,093.00
18
44.44%
7,702.50
720.00
117.00
3.44%
437.99
3,043.33
0.08
-0.08
YES
YES
ST58
GBPJPY
(34,894.85)
55.56%
37,874.79
1,080.00
76.50
-8.36%
(837.43)
4,021.05
-0.24
-0.08
NO
NO
ST58
GBPUSD
82,691.00
14
50.00%
43,801.00
560.00
119.00
3.77%
(874.85)
7,298.06
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST58
USDCAD
16,676.35
66.67%
6,141.58
540.00
54.00
0.96%
167.19
1,262.98
-0.04
0.15
NO
YES
ST58
USDCHF
6,064.12
10
40.00%
41,922.55
400.00
60.00
0.37%
(1,231.18)
3,434.56
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST58
USDJPY
84,311.61
14
42.86%
26,928.93
560.00
84.00
3.82%
(246.21)
2,940.34
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST59
AUDUSD
(7,494.00)
14
35.71%
11,380.00
560.00
84.00
-0.45%
(222.80)
1,626.94
-0.21
0.15
NO
NO
YES
ST59
EURUSD
1,881.00
50.00%
4,256.50
240.00
39.00
0.52%
125.40
2,474.08
-0.01
-0.08
YES
ST59
GBPJPY
(22,601.25)
239
37.24%
33,227.67
28,680.00
2,031.50
-5.69%
(376.58)
2,684.58
-0.21
-0.08
NO
NO
ST59
GBPUSD
49,880.50
57.14%
23,397.00
280.00
59.50
2.53%
1,245.16
5,824.05
0.22
0.15
YES
YES
ST59
USDCAD
3,495.63
50.00%
2,120.85
360.00
36.00
0.21%
145.48
1,019.11
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST59
USDCHF
52,915.27
66.67%
12,939.42
240.00
36.00
2.65%
785.51
3,725.99
0.22
0.15
YES
YES
ST59
USDJPY
28,692.75
10
50.00%
13,703.51
400.00
60.00
1.58%
717.44
3,190.81
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST60
AUDUSD
12,234.00
71
19.72%
22,230.00
2,840.00
426.00
0.72%
(346.65)
1,894.73
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST60
EURUSD
(18,821.50)
71
11.27%
27,587.50
2,840.00
461.50
-4.82%
(425.99)
4,007.66
-0.15
-0.08
NO
NO
NO
ST60
GBPJPY
(47,129.04)
54
11.11%
52,803.39
6,480.00
459.00
-10.78%
(1,560.69)
4,914.72
-0.24
-0.08
NO
ST60
GBPUSD
(17,804.50)
77
25.97%
92,155.50
3,080.00
654.50
-1.02%
(1,098.65)
8,359.69
-0.01
0.15
NO
NO
ST60
USDCAD
32,230.10
18
27.78%
4,522.84
1,080.00
108.00
1.75%
164.32
1,266.27
0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST60
USDCHF
13,791.42
65
35.38%
24,725.41
2,600.00
390.00
0.81%
(411.66)
3,768.23
-0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST60
USDJPY
83,609.82
59
37.29%
11,256.87
2,360.00
354.00
3.80%
138.01
2,849.19
0.07
0.15
NO
YES
ST61
AUDUSD
38,372.00
66.67%
7,206.00
120.00
18.00
2.03%
(522.40)
1,563.34
-0.02
0.15
NO
YES
ST61
EURUSD
(14,119.00)
16.67%
22,796.00
240.00
39.00
-3.69%
(83.23)
2,951.52
-0.1
-0.08
NO
NO
ST61
GBPJPY
5,239.12
50.00%
12,262.78
240.00
17.00
1.43%
(252.63)
4,928.64
-0.08
YES
YES
0.15
NO
YES
ST61
GBPUSD
117,560.50
42.86%
46,294.00
280.00
59.50
4.86%
(1,107.35)
6,097.99
0.1
Strategy
Currency
Complexity
ST61
USDCAD
ST61
USDCHF
ST61
Total Net
Profit
54
Avg. Mth
Rtn
Std. Dev
of Mth
Rtn
0.00%
102.00
3.94%
(383.74)
720.00
108.00
3.71%
80.00
12.00
17,726.00
160.00
26.00
#
trades
% Win
Max
Drawdown
Total
Slippage
Total
Commssn
0.00%
87,814.11
17
35.29%
19,905.97
680.00
USDJPY
81,123.97
18
27.78%
35,230.86
ST62
AUDUSD
29,688.00
100.00%
ST62
EURUSD
(17,726.00)
0.00%
Annual
ROR
Sharpe
Ratio
Sharpe
Benchmark
Strat >
Bench
Profitable
0.15
3,593.33
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
253.97
2,741.28
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
1.62%
189.25
1,448.14
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
-4.56%
387.60
2,869.07
0.05
-0.08
YES
NO
NO
ST62
GBPJPY
(16,330.16)
25.00%
31,692.69
480.00
34.00
-4.22%
(661.04)
4,812.60
-0.1
-0.08
NO
ST62
GBPUSD
(59,878.50)
21
33.33%
85,585.00
840.00
178.50
-2.93%
(754.70)
6,759.74
-0.02
0.15
NO
NO
ST62
USDCAD
24,574.98
100.00%
120.00
12.00
1.37%
(73.38)
1,196.91
-0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST62
USDCHF
142,682.57
21
61.90%
10,795.08
840.00
126.00
5.54%
803.25
3,385.96
0.13
0.15
NO
YES
ST62
USDJPY
103,872.22
18
44.44%
12,581.14
720.00
108.00
4.45%
(50.59)
2,890.82
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST63
AUDUSD
43,758.00
100.00%
80.00
12.00
2.27%
189.25
1,448.14
0.03
0.15
NO
YES
ST63
EURUSD
(10,587.00)
18
50.00%
16,358.50
720.00
117.00
-2.81%
(283.69)
3,169.95
-0.11
-0.08
NO
NO
ST63
GBPJPY
(10,246.81)
20.00%
16,877.07
600.00
42.50
-2.72%
(255.03)
4,595.10
-0.06
-0.08
YES
NO
0.04
0.15
NO
YES
0.15
ST63
GBPUSD
25,742.50
15
53.33%
42,195.50
600.00
127.50
1.43%
62.44
7,011.57
ST63
USDCAD
0.00%
0.00%
ST63
USDCHF
88,938.34
23
26.09%
31,713.37
920.00
138.00
3.98%
(269.42)
3,664.54
0.05
0.15
NO
YES
ST63
USDJPY
109,283.16
10
40.00%
12,432.77
400.00
60.00
4.61%
253.97
2,741.28
0.09
0.15
NO
YES
ST64
AUDUSD
26,068.00
100.00%
80.00
12.00
1.45%
189.25
1,448.14
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
ST64
EURUSD
21,271.00
33.33%
7,799.50
240.00
39.00
5.39%
562.51
2,610.50
0.15
-0.08
YES
YES
ST64
GBPJPY
(39,163.02)
14.29%
39,163.02
840.00
59.50
-9.23%
(1,155.53)
5,366.63
-0.18
-0.08
NO
NO
ST64
GBPUSD
(18,867.00)
22
36.36%
54,205.00
880.00
187.00
-1.08%
340.51
7,373.77
0.01
0.15
NO
NO
ST64
USDCAD
0.00%
0.00%
0.15
ST64
USDCHF
18,068.77
50.00%
2,176.95
160.00
24.00
1.04%
485.36
3,509.64
0.01
0.15
NO
YES
ST64
USDJPY
76,793.58
16
37.50%
23,169.69
640.00
96.00
3.56%
186.63
2,782.41
0.06
0.15
NO
YES
55
TABLE 3
Technical Trading System Rules by Currency
Currency
AUDUSD
EURUSD**
GBPJPY**
GBPUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
# of cases
% of
total
Profitable
Avg.
Sharpe
Sharpe >
Bench
Rank
(Sharpe)
63
59
55
63
60
63
62
14.8%
13.9%
12.9%
14.8%
14.1%
14.8%
14.6%
63.5%
62.7%
12.7%
74.6%
66.7%
87.3%
95.2%
(0.05762)
(0.00881)
(0.15964)
0.04317
(0.08850)
0.02286
0.07726
0.0%
69.5%
30.9%
7.9%
0.0%
7.9%
12.9%
5
4
7
2
6
3
1
425*
*425 cases: 63 trading systems x 7 currencies = 441 total cases. 441 16 with 0 trades = 425.
** These currencies were tested over a different time frame
56
TABLE 4
Technical Trading System Rules by Complexity Level
Complexity level 1
Complexity level 2
Complexity level 3
Complexity level 4
Complexity level 5
Complexity level 6
# of
cases
70
155
76
49
68
7
% of total
16.5%
36.5%
17.9%
11.5%
16.0%
1.6%
Profitable
58.6%
67.7%
65.8%
73.5%
70.6%
71.4%
Change
in avg.
Sharpe
Avg.
Sharpe
(0.06757)
(0.02258)
(0.01763)
0.01490
(0.00412)
(0.02429)
0.04499
0.00495
0.03253
(0.01902)
(0.02017)
Sharpe >
Bench
10.0%
16.1%
18.4%
30.6%
20.6%
14.3%
Avg.
Sharpe
(0.03179)
0.00226
Sharpe >
Bench
15.3%
24.2%
Rank
(Sharpe)
2
1
425*
Simple (Complexity 1-3)

Robust (Complexity 4-6)
# of
cases
301
124
425*
% of
total
70.8%
29.2%
Profitable
65.1%
71.8%
*425 cases: 63 trading systems x 7 currencies = 441 total cases. 441 16 with 0 trades = 425.
Rank
(Sharpe)
6
4
3
1
2
5
FIGURE 1
Sample Chart with Technical Indicators
57
FIGURE 2
Head & Shoulders Pattern
58
FIGURE 3
Simple Moving Average
59
FIGURE 4
Bollinger Bands
60
FIGURE 5
Average Sharpe Ratio by Complexity
61

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Brian Leip Thesis

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PROFITABILITY AND THE IMPACT OF COMPLEXITY ON TECHNICAL TRADING

SYSTEMS IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

Brian Kenneth Edward Leip*

* Brian Leip is an undergraduate student in the College of Business Administration Honors

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

PROFITABILITY AND THE IMPACT OF COMPLEXITY ON TECHNICAL TRADING

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

II. THE PRACTICE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

[Insert Figure 2 about here.]

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

1. An initial population of chromosomes (combination of strategy parameter values) is

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Profitability of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange (forex) Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

EUR/USD - Euro/US Dollar

GBP/JPY - Great Britain Pound/Japanese Yen

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Backtesting and Optimization Software

Barrons Best Online Broker (2011)

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Commissions and Slippage

AUD/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$3.00 per trade

Slippage costs are estimated at:

AUD/USD --------------------------------------------------------------------$20.00 per trade

Trading Systems Tested in this Study

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

[Insert Table 1 about here.]

Entry uses more than 1 indicator type or calculation

Complexity level 1 -------------------------------------------------------------- 10 (15.9%)

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Net Profit [Gross profit Gross Loss]

Average trade [net profit / total number of trades]

Return on account [net profit / maximum drawdown]

Winning days [average days in winning trade * number of winning trades]

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

VII. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Technical Trading Systems in the Forex Market

Surajaras, Patchara, and Richard J. Sweeney. Profit-Making Speculation in Foreign Exchange