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Table of Contents
2013 Edition
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Section 1
Foundational Concepts
Where do the numbers come from?
Education is at least in part based on theories derived from the findings of the
social sciences, e.g. learning, developmental, or administrative theories. Social science
research takes two different forms: Qualitative and Quantitative.1 Qualitative research
generates data in the form of words, e.g. interview transcripts, written descriptions of
observations, or historical documents; and is hence does not rely on statistical analysis.
Quantitative research generates numerical data, e.g. satisfaction rated on a scale of 1-5,
rankings, scores on standardized tests, or preparation times. The analysis of the
numerical data generated form quantitative research methods is called statistics.
Statistics is not just math. It is a specialized form of math. It is mathematics
applied to social science research, i.e. quantitative research. Statistics are also used in
the field of assessment, which is becoming increasingly important to educational
institutions and student standardized testing. This guide to statistics is not intended to
be an introduction or survey of quantitative research, nor is it intended to replace an
introduction to statistics textbook. Rather, this paper makes several assumptions:
You are in or have had a statistics class (such as the one may be in right
now).
A third form of social science research may be considered the mixed-method, but this form
is in fact the intentional combination of qualitative and quantitative, and not really a new form
of research. However, mixed method is becoming the preferred form of social science research.
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In any of these cases, you will still need to comprehend statistics, so as to design
the appropriate research and request the appropriate computations. In short, you have to
be smart enough to ask the statistician for the right stat! This paper is a crash course in
statistics for non-statisticians. It focuses more on understanding statistics than actually
doing the math.
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POPULATION
All students at
SBTS in Greek 1
SAMPLE
20 students
pulled from
population
????
DATA
SURVEY
generating
numerical responses
Report
Findings
Statistical
Analysis
Figure 1.1
Since a researcher may not be able to
contact every student in Greek 1 (population),
he/she decides to randomly select a representative
group of Greek 1 students (sample) which is a
more manageable project. The survey is then used
on the sample to generate numerical data for
statistical analysis. A sample/population
calculator is available on www.leadership.sbts.edu
Spoiler Alert:
If the entire population can be
reached, then one need only use
descriptive statistics.
However, if a sample is used,
inferential and/or correlative
statistics must be used, which
are far more complicated.
on dissertation helps and the Articles and Resources page. This resource will help
you avoid making a basic mistake in research design, and flaw the data upon which the
statistics are calculated. The findings of the survey are then reported based on
statistical analysis.
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Ordinal: Logically ordered categorical data; a scale that measures in terms of such
values as more or less, larger or smaller, but without specifying the size of the
interviews
o
Interval/Ratio: The distinctions between interval and ratio data are subtle, but
fortunately, this distinction is often not important. Certain statistical methods, i.e.
geometric mean and a coefficient of variation can only be applied to ratio data.
o
For example: Intelligence Quotient (IQ), since there is not real zero.
Ratio: A scale that measure in terms of equal intervals and an absolute zero-point
of origin.
Enables one also to determine the geometric mean and the percentage
variation; allows one to conduct virtually any inferential statistical
analysis.
These three kinds of data require different statistical treatment, e.g. certain
formulas only work with ordinal data rather than categorical. Mismatch the data with
the statistical formula . . . its like asking how many sides a circle has. The type of data
can also influence how data is presented and what kind of chart one uses to report
findings.
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Section 2
Statistics
Type of Question: What is
X?
Statistics: Descriptive
Metaphor: Snapshot
Formulas/Tests:
Mean, Median, Mode, Range,
Quartile, Whisker-Box Plot, Zscore, and Standard Deviation
Applications: I want to
know what my congregations
membership is like?, e.g. age,
height, weight, gender mix,
ethnicity, income levels, years
attending this congregation.
Table 2.1
Pearson r, Coefficient of
Determination, Scattergram;
Spearman rho, Kendalls tau
Applications: Is there a
significant correlation
between the education level of
my congregation members
and their participation in
Sunday school?
Statistics: Correlation
Metaphor: Thermometer
Formulas/Tests:
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Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics . . . describe. It is the most basic form of
statistical analysis of a body of numbers. How many people
attend your church? How do you respond? Do you read off
all the Sunday morning attendances for the previous year?
Probably not. Rather, summarize all those attendances into a
single number, the average attendance (statistically called the mean). How did you do
in seminary? You dont recount your academic transcript; you probably give your
g.p.a. (grade point average) as a means of summarizing your academic performance
into a single, concise number. We use descriptive statistic most frequently and often do
not even realize it. Descriptive statistics are like a snapshot. Tell me what you see?
Descriptive statistics are used to summarize, analyze and share any set of numbers.
However, like a good photograph, you must be able to get everyone in the shot, or the
picture is incomplete. Descriptive statistics are useful only when the entire population
can be reached. While they are the basis of all the other forms of statistics, when you
only have a sample, descriptive statistics are not enough to reach a firm conclusion.
Descriptive statistics cannot answer all the questions or serve all our statistical needs,
and hence two other forms of statistics exist.
Inferential Statistics
What are the odds? Many of us have felt the frustration
of playing the board game Risk and having a territory
defended by one single army that consistently rolls a 6 every
time against your superior forces. What are the odds?
Thats not right! Youre cheating! and the battle ensues. Inferential statistics are
typically used in regard to the probability of a response occurring. More specifically, if
a sample is pulled from a population, how certain can the researcher be that the
numbers gained from the sample accurately reflect the population being studied; i.e.,
what are the odds of the population data occurring outside the sample data? This is
used in political polling when projecting a winner in an election. With a small
percentage of the vote cast (sample) certain statistical extrapolations can be made to
indicate if this is reflective of the voting public (population), answering the question
What are the odds the other candidate can still catch the leading candidate? This also
speaks to the assurance one has that their descriptive statistics are accurate. It becomes a
matter of confidence. How confident are you that your study of the sample is an accurate
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depiction of the population? Las Vegas odds-makers are the heir apparent to this
form of statistics, since it began with a gambling question.
In the mid-1600s a professional gambler named Chevalier de Mere made fortune.
He would bet unsuspecting patrons that in 4 rolls of a die he could get a six at least
once. He was so successful at the game that soon people refused to play him. He then
challenged them that he could roll two sixes in 24 rolls of the die . . . he failed.
Confused, he contacted Blaise Pascal famous mathematician. He corresponded with a
friend, Pierre de Fermat, and they developed the first successful theory of probability . .
. inferential statistics!2 This may be the only beneficial development from the gambling
industry!
Correlation Statistics
When the temperature rises, so does the red line in a
thermometer. As it cools, the red line lowers. There is an obvious
relationship between the red line and the temperature. However, if
someone had never seen a thermometer before, they could incorrectly
conclude, Amazing, if the red line drops, the temperature lowers; and if it goes up, the
temperature rises! Correlation statistics is a special form of descriptive statistics in
which the relationship between two or more variable relate to one another. Correlation
can not only determine the presence of a relationship, but the nature of the relationship
as well. Is there a connection between small group participation and involvement in
the congregations ministry? This is a question that correlation statistics can answer.
In its most basic form, only the fact of the relationship can be demonstrated, not the form
of the relationship, e.g. causation. More advanced correlation statistics can determine
not only the existence of a relationship, but the event of causation. Correlation statics
are in part based on Inferential statistics, since it is dealing with a sample and
explaining the probability of an event, i.e. if this happens to X, then Y occurs this much.
Variables?
A variable is the item or items being analyzed. If I want to see the correlation
between a students grade point average and their score on a standardized test (such as
SAT, ACT, or GRE), then Im studying the relationship between two variables.
Cf. Allan G. Bluman (1995), Elementary Statistics, 2nd Edition (Chicago: Irwin), 13.
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Variables come in two different types: Categorical are those that are non-numerical,
such as gender, which has two categories male and female. Numerical variables are
counted or measured. Discrete numerical variables are counted in whole numbers, e.g. 1,
2, 3, 4; like asking how many times someone attended worship annually. Continuous
numerical variables are continuous because they are not simply counted, but are
measured, i.e. using decimals, and hence are continuous; e.g., the distance a household
is from your church building, 5.239 miles. You could say discrete is a count, continuous is
an amount. The type of variable does appropriate statistical formula and the way in
which data is presented (Section 6).
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Section 3
Descriptive Statistics
Whats going on here?
You have a large set of numbers . . . how do you
describe them? Descriptive statistics are designed to
provide an accurate overview of any set of numbers. Like a
photograph, they capture certain elements of the scene.
Like the photo to the left, you could say, It has palm trees,
a beach, an ocean, and mountains in the distance. While
there may be more the photo, such as waves in the ocean, or mountains closer than
others in the distance, the descriptive given is enough to identify the photo and
accurately describe the contents. Descriptive statistics has several standard methods of
describing a set of numbers. It is not designed to project or capture an image beyond
the limits of the frame, or explain the relationship between items in the photo. Photos
capture one moment in time within the limited scope of the lens. That is descriptive
statistics.
Descriptive Statistics Computations
Mean: The technical term for average, the balancing point of all the data. It is
derived by adding all the values in a data set and dividing by the number of values.
This is designed to identify the center of the data, i.e. central tendency.
Median: The middle value when all the values in a data set are arranged lowest to
highest. This is designed to identify the center of the data, i.e. central tendency.
Range: The difference between the lowest and highest number in a data set. This is
designed to demonstrate the spread of values in a data set, the variance.
Quartiles: The three values that split a data set into four equal parts, or quarters.
This is designed to summarize large data sets into 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles, i.e.
quarters. Note: standardized educational testing uses the quartile system.
o Q1, the first quartile, 25%, means that a quarter of the values in the data set are
smaller than this value and 75% are larger
o Q2, the second quartile, 50%, means that half of the values in the data set are smaller
than this value and half are larger.
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o Q3, the third quartile, means that 75% of the values in the data set are smaller than
this value and 25% are larger.
Mean
Mean
Mean
4
3
2
1
0
Symmetric
Left
Right
Z-score: The difference between a value and the mean, divided by the standard
deviation. This is designed to identify the spread of data from the mean, the variance. Zscore is a score; meaning it is used to assess variance. A Z-score of +/- 3 identifies
that that value is an extreme value, far from the mean.
Standard Deviation: The measure of variation of a set of data from the mean, like the
width of the mean. This is designed to demonstrate the spread of data from the mean of the
data set.
ILLUSTRATION
You are an instructor in a seminary. You give a midterm exam to a class of 20
students. The following are the scores on the midterm (the data set), arranged smallest
to largest:
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58
59
63
68
74
77
83
85
87
88
88
88
90
90
91
92
95
96
97
99
At lunch, a colleague asked, How did your student do on the midterm? Rather
than rattling off the grade book, you could simply respond as follows:
Mean: 83.4
Median: 88.5 (since it is an even numbered data set, 20 values, the median is
between the 10th and 11th value).
Mode: 88 (That value occurs three times in the data set, more than any other
value)
Range: 41 points (the highest value the lowest value, i.e. 99-58 = 41)
Quartiles:
Q1 = 76.25
Q2 = 88
Q3 = 91.25
Skewness: 0.931 (using Microsoft Excel, this figure was provided. Since a value of
0 would indicate a symmetrical skew, and this is close, i.e. it is still a zeropoint-something, then the data is almost symmetrical, maybe only slightly
skewed!
Z-score: Since the Z-score for the lowest test was -2.0 and the Z-score for the
highest was +1.23; neither being outside the +/- 3 range, none of the scores are
considered extreme.
Standard Deviation: 12.65 points, meaning most of the grades were between 96.05
(the mean + the standard deviation) and 70.75 (the mean the standard
deviation).
This is probably more information than your colleague requested, required, or
even expected, but it does provide an accurate depiction of the class performance on
the midterm exam!
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Section 4
Inferential Statistics
How sure am I that my description is accurate?
Inferential statistics can be described in a variety of
ways, but perhaps the most common phrase is, What
are the odds of that happening? Inferential statistics is
the mathematical basis of gambling, or more
specifically probability. However, for our purposes, the
basic description for our purposes is to discuss the
difference between sets of data. It is used in research to determine the level of confidence
one can have generalizing conclusion about the population from a sample. How
confident can I be that the samples data is an accurate reflection of the population in
general? This is the task of inferential statistics. We can assume that the data drawn from
a sample of a population will accurately reflect the actual population; but thats an
assumption! Inferential statistics serves to validate more objectively the accuracy of the
samples data in relation to the population. Rather than having to say, I feel confident .
. . or Well, I hope its accurate!, a statistician can say, Im 90% confident that the
sample data accurately reflects the population.
Inferential Statistic Calculations
Hypothesis Testing refers to a set of methods used to make inferences about
expected or hypothesized values between a sample and population. What methods
(plural) are available for testing hypotheses?
p-value approach: Given the null hypothesis is true, the p-value tests for extreme
values in the sample. You reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than , you
do not reject the null hypothesis is the p-value is more than . Hence the phrase, If
the p-value is low, then the null hypothesis must go.
o , also known as level of significance, refers to the odds of a Type 1 error
occurring in a hypothesis test. It should be measured at .05 to insure a Type 1
error does not occur.
Z-test (not Z score): What level of confidence do you have that a given set of data is
normally distributed and that a given value falls into a predictable pattern, not in
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the extreme? This is the Z-test or Z-value. Typically, 95% is the level of certainty
used in research. This corresponds to a Z-value of +/- 1.96. If a test statistic is
greater than 1.96, you reject the null hypothesis. If you lower the level of certainty,
this may change . . . but
Group
Differences
Interval
Ordinal
2 Groups
Wilcoxin
Matched
Pairs T-test
MannWhitney
U-test
Wilcoxin
Rank-Sum
Figure
4.1
test
3+ Groups
KruskalWallis H
test
1 Group
One-sample
z-test
Sample &
Population
mean known;
n>30
One-sample
t-test
unknown
2 Groups
Independent
Samples t-test
2 Independent
Groups
Matched
Samples t-test
2 matched
groups
3+ Groups
One-way
ANOVA
1 ind. var., 1
dep. var. ind.
groups
Factorial
ANOVA
2+ ind. var., 1
dep. var. ind.
groups
DESCRIPTIONS
Wilcoxin Matched Pairs t-Test: It is like the Matched samples t-Test. See below
Adapted from Dr. Rick Yount, (2006). Research Design and Statistical Analysis in
Christian Ministry, 4th Edition. (self published, Southwestern Baptist Theological
Seminary, Fort Worth, Texas), pp. 5-3, and subsequent material from pp. 5-4 to 5-7.
3
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associate deans differ between four academic fields and gender? It measures the
interaction among the independent variables.
t-Test, but which one?
When you are testing for differences between groups, a variety of t Tests are available.
How do you know which one to use?
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Same
Participants
NO
YES
2 Groups
3+ Groups
t-test for
dependent
samples
Related
measures
of analysis
of variance
2 Groups
3+ Groups
t-test for
independent
samples
Simple
Analysis of
Variance
Figure 4.24
Adapted from Neil J. Salkind (2008), Statistics for People Who Think They Hate Statistics
(Los Angeles: Sage Publications), 190.
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Figure 4.3
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Section 5
Correlation Statistics
How does X influence Y?
I wonder if there is a relationship between the temperature in
my dorm room and the red liquid in the thermometer? What
might be that relationship? Correlation statistics is used to
determine the existence, strength, and direction of variables in a
study, especially similarities among variables. Yes, there is a
relationship between the temperature in my dorm room and the red liquid in the
thermometer. When temperature rises, the red liquid rises in direct relation to the
temperature, and this is very strong relationship. Correlation statistics are sometimes
called coefficient of similarity or just association.
Different tests are used depending on the type of variable:
Categorical or Nominal: one that has two or more categories, but there is no
intrinsic ordering to the categories, e.g gender has two categories (male and
female) or hair color having more than two categories (blonde, brown, brunette,
red). Neither of these categories have an order highest to lowest.
Two Categories: Spearman rho ( ) and/or Kendalls tau ( )
Three or More Categories: Kendalls W
Ordinal: Like a categorical or nominal variable, except there is an obvious
ordering of the variables, e.g. economic status with three categories (low,
medium and high) or educational experience with levels such as elementary
school graduate, high school graduate, some university and university graduate.
In both instances, the spacing between the values may not be the same across the
levels of the variables.
One Categories: Chi-squared (2), Goodness of Fit
Two Categories: Chi-squared (2), Test of Independence
Interval: Like an ordinal variable, except that the intervals between the values are
equally spaced, e.g. measuring economic status in increments of $10,000, the
space between the variables is equal.
Two Categories: Pearsons r and Linear Regression
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Specific types of tests are tied to specific types of variables. Mismatch the variable and/or
test, bad data!
Ordinal
Categorical
Interval
2 Ranks
3+ Ranks
1
Variable
2
Variables
2
Variables
3+
Variables
Spearman
rho ()
Kendalls
W
Chi-square
Goodness
of Fit
Chi-square
Test of
Independence
Contingency
Coefficient;
Cramers Phi
Pearsons r
Multiple
Regression
Kendalls
tau ()
Figure 5.1
Simple
Linear
Regression
DESCRIPTIONS
Spearman rho (): Computes correlation between ranks (used when at least 10 or more
pares of rankings are available) given by two groups; e.g. What is the correlation
between rank in the senior year of college and rank during the first year of seminary?
Adapted from Dr. Rick Yount, (2006). Research Design and Statistical Analysis in
Christian Ministry, 4th Edition. (self published, Southwestern Baptist Theological
Seminary, Fort Worth, Texas), p. 5-3, and subsequent material from pages 5-4 to 5-7.
5
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Kendalls tau (): Similar to Spearman rho, but used when less than 10 ranks are
available given by two groups; e.g. two church staff members ranking a list of seven
characteristics about church health, this could compute the degree of agreement
between the rankings.
Kendalls W (also known as Kendalls Coefficient of Concordance): Similar to the
Spearman rho and Kendalls tau, it measures the degree of agreement in ranking from
more than two groups, 3+. e.g. five church staff members ranking a list of seven
characteristics about church health, this could compute the degree of agreement
between the rankings.
Chi Square (2): Determines if the number of occurrences across categories is random;
e.g. Did coffee, hot chocolate, and hot tea sell an equal number of cups during the last
week?
Chi Square Goodness of Fit: Compares actual categorical counts with expected
categorical counts, e.g. did actual gender enrollment match what was expected?
How good did the expectation fit the actual?
Chi Squared Test of Independence: Compares two categorical variables to
determine if any relationship exists between them, i.e. are they independent
variables.
Pearson r (or Pearsons Product Moment Correlation Coefficient): Directly measures the
degree of relationship between two interval variables.
Simple Linear Regression: Computes an equation of a line which allow researchers to
predict one interval variable from another, e.g., If x . . . then y.
Multiple Regression: A statistical procedure where several interval variables (3+) are
used to predict one.
t Test, but which one?
When you are testing for relationships or similarities between groups, a variety of t
Tests are available. How do you know which one to use?
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How many
variables?
2 Groups
3+ Groups
Regression,
factor
analysis
Figure 5.26
Adapted from Neil J. Salkind (2008), Statistics for People Who Think They Hate Statistics (Los Angeles: Sage
Publications), 190.
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Section 6
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Adapted from Deborah Rumsey (2007), Intermediate Statistics for Dummies (Hoboken,
New Jersey: Wiley Publishing), Chapter 21.
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Bibliography
Levine, David M. and David F. Stephan (2005). Even You Can Learn Statistics. Upper
Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall.
Pyrczak, Fred (2006). Making Sense of Statistics: A Conceptual Overview, 4th Edition.
Glendale, California: Pyrczak Publishing.
Rumsey, Deborah (2003). Statistics for Dummies. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley
Publishing.
________ (2007). Intermediate Statistics for Dummies. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley
Publishing.
Salkind, Neil J. (2008). Statistics for People Who (Think They) Hate Statistics, 3rd Edition.
Los Angeles: Sage Publications.
Yount, Rick (2006). Research Design and Statistical Analysis in Christian Ministry, 4th
Edition. Fort Worth, Texas: Southwest Baptist Theological Seminary.