Professional Documents
Culture Documents
US Equity Research
17 September 2015
Company Update
BUY
unchanged
US$105.00
PRICE TARGET
unchanged
Price (16-Sep)
Ticker
52-Week Range (US$):
Market Cap (US$M):
Shares Out. (M) :
FYE Dec
Sales (US$M)
P/Sales (x)
EPS (US$)
P/E (x)
60.00 - 103.56
22,731
219.9
2014A
3,084
7.4
0.95
108.3
Quarterly Sales
2014A
2015E
2016E
Quarterly EPS
2014A
2015E
2016E
US$103.36
UA-NYSE
2015E
3,868
5.9
1.06
97.5
Q1
Q2
641.6 609.7
804.9A 783.6A
1,002 960.0
Q1
0.06
0.05A
0.11
Q2
0.08
0.07A
0.12
2016E
4,757
4.8
1.42
72.7
Q3
937.9
1,165
1,436
Q4
895.2
1,114
1,359
Q3
0.41
0.42
0.57
Q4
0.40
0.52
0.63
110
100
90
80
70
60
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
50
UA
S&P500(rebased)
Source:FactSet
Investment recommendation
It is well understood that UA's multiple is difficult for most to look past; however as
we have stated often, when presented with the vast growth opportunities across
geographies, categories, channels, and now industries (e.g. technology and healthcare)
as we were at yesterday's Investor Day, it is clear that UA has a long runway of elevated
and outsized growth to justify the multiple. This was underscored by UA's 2018 targets
that call for $7.5B in revenue (implying a 25% CAGR) and $800M in EBIT (23% CAGR).
It also puts UA within striking distance of $10B in 2019, a milestone we have been
speaking to and one we believe it is well positioned to reach. In looking across the retail
universe, we see no other company with the strength of brand and underlying growth
opportunities that UA has and therefore, we are not daunted by the seemingly expensive
multiple. We reiterate our BUY rating.
Investment highlights
Growth avenues abound: Of the many exciting growth drivers UA detailed in its
presentation, we are most intrigued/impressed by 1) its entry into sportswear
where Nike/Adidas enjoy combined 25% share or $12B+ in sales, 2) its plans to
grow international by 50% annually through 2018, quintupling the business to
$1.35B, 3) 30% DTC CAGR resulting in a tripling of global doors to over 1,000 stores
worldwide combined with 5x growth of its e-commerce platform, 4) the evolution and
monetization of UA Record/Connected Fitness to $200M, and 5) the acceleration
in footwear that is expected to drive 40% CAGR reaching $1.7B in revenue. This
is not to say that the planned doubling of apparel, global wholesale, and NA is not
equally impressive. All of these growth initiatives are supported by the success of its
athletes that provide a platform to drive incremental brand awareness and consumer
connections.
Stable gross margin outlook: Despite a long-term target of 50%, UA is projecting 2018
gross margin of 49% (flat with 2015). The positive contributors (Connected Fitness,
higher DTC mix, and product margin improvement/supply chain) are expected to be
offset by faster growth of lower-margin businesses (footwear and international) and FX.
Investments are necessary (and welcomed) to expand the runway of growth: Too
many times have we seen hyper-growth companies under-invest in the business,
ultimately to the detriment of the brand. We therefore are pleased to see UA planning
for its long-term future by making the appropriate investments today in categories
(footwear, int'l, basketball, golf, women's), marketing assets (current and future),
systems (new SAP platform), technology (Connected Fitness), and infrastructure (new
HQ, more DC's) all of which should help propel the growth algorithm. That said, this
will lead to modest SG&A deleverage through 2018, a trade-off for revenue growth we
are happy to make. Similarly, capex will be elevated at 8-10% of sales through 2018.
Valuation
Our $105 target is based on a blend of 60x our 2016E EPS, 30x EV/EBITDA, and DCF.
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX | CF. : LSE)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all
the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein.
For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 3 of this document.
Under Armour
Company Update
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
459.2
114.0
51.5
624.8
12.8
4.0
641.6
420.0
109.5
59.9
589.5
14.7
5.5
609.7
704.6
121.6
84.9
911.1
26.8
707.7
85.8
79.0
872.5
22.7
937.9
COGS
Gross Profit
SG&A
Operating Incom e
340.9
300.7
273.8
26.9
309.7
300.0
265.3
34.7
(0.8)
(0.9)
25.1
11.6
$13.5
$0.06
$0.04
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15E
4Q15E
1Q16E
2Q16E
3Q16E
4Q16E
515.3
153.6
83.0
751.9
18.1
13.6
783.6
859.6
170.2
97.7
1,127.5
37.5
870.5
120.1
90.8
1,081.4
32.9
688.8
217.3
75.8
981.8
20.3
638.9
199.7
99.6
938.3
21.7
1,048.7
229.8
112.3
1,390.8
45.0
1,053.2
162.2
104.5
1,319.9
39.5
895.2
555.5
161.0
63.2
779.6
16.9
8.4
804.9
1,165.0
1,114.4
1,002.2
960.0
1,435.9
472.6
465.3
319.2
146.1
448.9
446.3
300.0
146.3
427.3
377.7
350.0
27.7
404.5
379.1
347.2
31.9
593.0
572.0
411.8
160.3
549.4
565.0
372.0
193.0
524.1
478.0
437.5
40.5
485.8
474.2
430.5
43.8
(1.2)
0.2
33.7
16.0
$17.7
$0.08
$0.07
(1.5)
(3.4)
141.2
52.1
$89.1
$0.41
$0.40
(1.7)
(2.4)
142.1
54.4
$87.7
$0.40
$0.39
(2.2)
(1.8)
23.6
11.9
$11.7
$0.05
$0.05
(4.3)
0.0
27.7
12.9
$14.8
$0.07
$0.05
(4.0)
(1.0)
155.3
62.1
$93.2
$0.42
$0.44
(4.0)
(1.0)
188.0
74.3
$113.8
$0.52
$0.52
(3.0)
(1.5)
39.0
15.6
$23.4
$0.11
$0.10
216.9
217.3
218.0
219.7
219.6
219.9
220.2
220.5
46.9%
0.95%
42.7%
0.38%
4.2%
(0.1%)
46.1%
2.1%
49.2%
0.88%
43.5%
(2.30%)
5.7%
0.0%
47.5%
2.9%
49.6%
1.19%
34.0%
(2.32%)
15.6%
(0.4%)
36.9%
9.5%
49.9%
(1.46%)
33.5%
3.38%
16.3%
(0.3%)
38.3%
9.8%
46.9%
0.05%
43.5%
(0.80%)
3.4%
(0.2%)
50.3%
1.5%
48.4%
(0.83%)
44.3%
(0.79%)
4.1%
0.0%
46.7%
1.9%
49.1%
(0.51%)
35.3%
(1.31%)
13.8%
(0.1%)
40.0%
8.0%
32.9%
41.2%
42.8%
35.1%
39.0%
35.4%
34.2%
17.5%
33.1%
26.1%
25.6%
50.1%
32.0%
29.0%
59.1%
29.7%
55.0%
22.2%
31.1%
31.6%
36.0%
38.9%
38.8%
34.9%
99.1%
73.3%
70.9%
34.1%
36.6%
37.2%
41.6%
7.4%
0.7%
(0.7%)
29.7%
32.9%
31.6%
39.2%
20.9%
22.4%
20.4%
31.1%
27.4%
27.2%
19.1%
48.6%
36.7%
33.5%
20.9%
41.1%
22.5%
24.8%
32.2%
112.5%
25.5%
25.6%
25.3%
27.8%
3.0%
(13.4%)
(14.4%)
22.7%
40.2%
38.6%
27.6%
23.3%
147.8%
28.5%
26.4%
26.5%
30.9%
(8.1%)
(16.5%)
(17.5%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,359.4
853.5
127.2
43.9
1,024.6
39.4
0.0
1,063.9
1,122.0
181.7
132.4
1,436.1
36.6
0.0
1,472.7
1,385.4
239.0
165.8
1,790.1
44.8
0.0
1,834.9
1,762.2
298.8
216.1
2,277.1
55.0
0.0
2,332.1
2,291.5
431.0
275.4
2,997.9
77.0
9.4
3,084.4
2,800.7
605.0
334.7
3,740.4
105.5
22.0
3,867.9
3,429.6
809.0
392.2
4,630.8
126.6
0.0
4,757.4
717.9
717.9
506.5
211.5
672.9
686.5
453.8
232.7
533.4
530.5
418.2
112.4
759.8
712.8
550.1
162.8
955.6
879.3
670.6
208.7
1,195.4
1,136.7
871.6
265.1
1,572.2
1,512.2
1,158.3
354.0
1,974.2
1,893.7
1,480.9
412.9
2,400.7
2,356.7
1,828.2
528.5
(3.0)
(1.5)
42.3
16.9
$25.4
$0.12
$0.11
(3.0)
(1.5)
210.0
84.0
$126.0
$0.57
$0.59
(3.0)
(1.5)
231.2
92.5
$138.7
$0.63
$0.65
(2.3)
(2.9)
107.2
40.4
$66.8
$0.33
$0.31
(3.8)
(5.9)
153.0
59.9
$93.1
$0.44
$0.46
(5.2)
(5.3)
198.3
74.7
$123.6
$0.58
$0.60
(2.4)
(4.1)
258.6
98.7
$159.9
$0.75
$0.72
(5.3)
(6.4)
342.2
134.2
208.0
$0.95
$0.95
(14.5)
(3.8)
394.6
161.2
233.4
$1.06
$1.08
(12.0)
(6.0)
510.5
209.0
313.5
$1.42
$1.43
220.5
220.5
220.5
220.5
205.1
210.1
212.6
214.3
218.0
220.1
220.5
50.7%
0.85%
33.4%
0.13%
17.3%
(0.1%)
39.5%
10.2%
47.7%
0.78%
43.7%
(0.17%)
4.0%
(0.1%)
40.0%
2.3%
49.4%
1.03%
44.8%
(0.54%)
4.6%
(0.2%)
40.0%
2.6%
50.0%
0.90%
35.3%
0.07%
14.7%
(0.1%)
40.0%
8.8%
50.5%
(0.20%)
33.4%
(0.00%)
17.1%
(0.1%)
40.0%
10.2%
49.9%
1.97%
39.3%
(1.37%)
10.6%
(0.3%)
37.7%
6.3%
48.4%
(1.46%)
37.4%
1.95%
11.1%
(0.4%)
39.2%
6.3%
47.9%
(0.48%)
36.5%
0.80%
11.4%
(0.3%)
37.7%
6.7%
48.7%
0.82%
37.4%
(0.83%)
11.4%
(0.2%)
38.2%
6.9%
49.0%
0.29%
37.6%
(0.18%)
11.5%
(0.2%)
39.2%
6.7%
49.0%
(0.07%)
38.3%
(0.73%)
10.7%
(0.1%)
40.8%
6.0%
49.5%
0.58%
38.4%
(0.14%)
11.1%
(0.1%)
40.9%
6.6%
22.0%
40.0%
15.0%
23.7%
40.0%
23.0%
40.0%
15.0%
23.9%
45.0%
24.0%
35.0%
20.0%
25.9%
20.0%
24.0%
30.0%
20.0%
24.8%
20.0%
22.0%
35.0%
15.0%
23.4%
20.0%
21.0%
35.0%
15.0%
22.1%
20.0%
30.9%
(6.6%)
25.1%
24.5%
18.1%
31.5%
42.9%
201.7%
40.2%
(7.1%)
23.5%
31.5%
25.3%
24.7%
22.5%
27.2%
25.1%
30.3%
27.2%
22.8%
30.0%
44.2%
27.4%
31.7%
40.1%
22.2%
40.4%
21.5%
24.8%
37.0%
22.5%
33.7%
17.2%
23.8%
20.0%
24.2%
22.9%
21.9%
29.0%
9.7%
4.5%
3.5%
24.5%
26.6%
25.6%
24.0%
31.9%
29.7%
29.2%
24.5%
26.6%
26.9%
25.0%
46.5%
99.7%
98.9%
22.5%
25.1%
25.4%
24.0%
37.2%
71.7%
71.3%
23.2%
25.5%
25.9%
23.0%
31.9%
35.2%
35.0%
22.0%
21.5%
21.6%
22.0%
20.6%
22.0%
22.0%
24.2%
29.4%
30.3%
28.7%
31.8%
42.6%
40.9%
38.4%
34.4%
37.7%
31.5%
44.9%
39.4%
36.1%
24.6%
23.4%
23.4%
21.9%
28.2%
32.8%
31.2%
27.1%
29.3%
29.6%
30.0%
27.0%
29.4%
28.3%
32.3%
33.0%
32.7%
32.9%
33.5%
30.1%
27.9%
25.4%
25.2%
24.6%
27.9%
16.6%
12.2%
11.1%
23.0%
24.4%
24.7%
23.5%
28.0%
34.3%
34.0%
Under Armour
Company Update
Coverage Universe
IB Clients
#
%
%
Buy
626
62.60%
31.79%
Hold
287
28.70%
12.89%
Sell
30
3.00%
3.33%
Speculative Buy
57
5.70%
57.89%
1000*
100.0%
*Total includes stocks that are Under Review
Canaccord Genuity Ratings System
BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.
Risk-adjusted return refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or the
relevant issuer.
Risk Qualier
SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the
stock may result in material loss.
Canaccord Genuity Company-Specific Disclosures (as of date of this publication)
Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of Under Armour or
in any related derivatives.
Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies intend to seek or expect to receive compensation for Corporate Finance/
Investment Banking services from Under Armour in the next six months.
An analyst has visited the material operations of Under Armour. No payment was received for the related travel costs.
Buy unchanged Target Price US$105.00 unchanged | 17 September 2015
Under Armour
Company Update
B:$34.00
01/31/13
B:$35.00
07/15/13
B:$38.00
07/25/13
B:$46.00
10/18/13
B:$60.00
01/31/14
B:$80.00
07/24/14
B:$93.00
12/03/14
B:$97.00
02/05/15
B:$105.00
07/23/15
120
100
80
60
40
20
Oct 2012
Jan 2013
Apr 2013
Jul 2013
Oct 2013
Jan 2014
Closing Price
Apr 2014
Jul 2014
Oct 2014
Jan 2015
Apr 2015
Jul 2015
Target Price
Buy (B); Speculative Buy (SB); Sell (S); Hold (H); Suspended (SU); Under Review (UR); Restricted (RE); Not Rated (NR)
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Under Armour
Company Update
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Buy unchanged Target Price US$105.00 unchanged | 17 September 2015
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