A

o n t h l y

o l l

o mp i l a t i o n

Volume 11, Issue 9 October 2015

IN THIS ISSUE: Insiders and Outsiders (Pages 13)

The Economy, Seven Years Later (Pages 46) Income Inequality (Pages 712)

Insiders and Outsiders: What Americans Are Telling the Pollsters

Commentators have dubbed this the summer of the political outsider because of the popularity of Donald Trump and
Ben Carson. In 1987, 35 percent said they would rather have a presidential candidate whose political experience was
mostly outside of Washington. This spring, 56 percent gave that response. In another question, however, 52 percent said
they would be less likely to support a presidential candidate who has never held elected office.
Q: Would you rather have . . . ?

A presidential candidate whose

political experience was mostly
outside of Washington
35%
40
48
56

Someone whose experience

was mostly in the government
in Washington

1987
1991
1999
2015

31
32

49%
46

Note: Asked of registered voters. In 1991, question wording was inside the federal government in Washington rather than in the
government in Washington.
Source: CBS News/New York Times, latest that of AprilMay 2015.

Q: Thinking about presidential elections, wed like to know how you generally feel about some different traits. First,
would you be more likely or less likely to support a candidate for president who. . . ?

2014

Has been an elected official in

Washington for many years

More likely to support

Less likely to support

Wouldnt matter
Has never held elected office before

More likely to support

Less likely to support

Wouldnt matter
Has been a business executive

More likely to support

Less likely to support

Wouldnt matter

19%

2011

30

48

9%
37

13

52

33%
53

2007

26%
25
46

35%
15
45

9%
51
38

7%
56
35

35%
14
49

28%
13
56

Note: In 2014, 46 percent of Republicans said they would be more likely to support a candidate who has been a business executive, 5
percent said less likely, and 47 percent said it wouldnt matter. Of Democrats, 18 percent said they would be more likely to support such
a candidate, 20 percent said less likely, and 60 percent said it wouldnt matter.
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of April 2014.

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1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

(Continued from the previous page)

In 2007, 18 percent of Republicans told Pew they would be less likely to support a presidential candidate who had been an
elected official in Washington. By 2014, that response had doubled. Democrats responses doubled, too, from a lower 10
to 20 percent. Question wording is always important. Forty-six percent of registered voters in a September 2015 Quinnipiac poll said someone who has experience in Washington would better help a candidate serve effectively as president
(48 percent said an outsider perspective would). In a September ABC News/Washington Post poll, however, 56 percent
said they would like to see someone with experience in how the political system works as the next president (40 percent
said they wanted someone from the outside). Republicans and Democrats differed sharply on these questions. In a CBS
News/New York Times question asked of primary voters who expressed preference for a particular candidate, 63 percent
of Republicans and 56 percent of Democrats said it was too early to say for sure that their minds were made up about who
they would support.
Q: Thinking about presidential elections, wed like to know how you generally feel about some different traits. First,
would you be more likely or less likely to support . . . ?
A presidential candidate who has been an elected official in Washington for many years
Republicans

More likely

15

Less
likely
25

40%

18%
34
36

Democrats

Wouldnt
matter
More likely
37%
38
46

2007
2011
2014

29
26

39%

Less
likely

Wouldnt
matter

10%
15
20

48%
52
53

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of April 2014.

Q: If you had to choose, which type of experience do you think would better help a candidate serve effectively as
president . . . ?

Someone who has
Someone who is a

experience in Washington
Washington outsider
46%
23
81

Total
Republicans
Democrats

48%
72

15

Note: Asked of registered voters. In a 2011 Associated Press/GfK online survey of national adults that asked the same question, 56
percent said someone who has experience in Washington, and 42 percent said a Washington outsider. In that survey, Republicans were
evenly split, with 48 percent giving each response.
Source: Quinnipiac University, September 2015.

Q: When thinking about the kind of person youd like to see as the next president, which of these is more important to
you . . . ?

Someone with experience in
Someone from outside the

how the political system works
existing political establishment
56%
36
73

Total
Republicans
Democrats

40%
24

58

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, September 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Politics as a Lifes Work

As many pollsters have noted, dissatisfaction with the way Washington is working is approaching or exceeding
Watergate-era levels. This sentiment is embodied in opinions of politics as a profession over time, which has never been
very attractive to the general public. Few Americans say they would like their children to pursue a political career. In
1943, when the National Opinion Research Center asked people whether they would want a son to choose politics as a
lifes work, only 17 percent
100
said they would. In 2013, 25
90
percent in a Gallup survey
80
said they would like a son
70
to go into politics. Recent
72%
Satisfied with the way the nation is being governed
results for daughters are not
60
significantly different.
50 54%
Q: On the whole, would you
say you are . . . ?

40

Note: In 1991, question wording was the way the nation is

governed.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of September
2014.

20

Q: If you had a son just

getting out of school would
you like to see him go into
politics as a life work?
(NORC, 1943, 1945)

37%
27%

Dissatisfied

30

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

10

100
90
80

Q: If you had a son or

daughter, would you like to
see him or her go into politics as a lifes work when he
or she gets out of school?
(Pew, 1997)

70

Q: If you had a son or

daughter just getting out
of school, would you like
to see him or her pursue a
career in politics, or not?
(Pew, 2010)

20

69%

No, would not like to see child go into politics

70%

60
50
40
30
10

17%

Yes, would

25%

0
1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Q: If you had a son, would you like to see him go into politics as a lifes work? (Gallup*)
Note: *Question wording for Gallups December 1944January1945 and 1955 to 1965 surveys was If you had a son, would you like to
see him go into politics as a lifes work, when he gets out of school? Data for Gallups 1993 to 2013 surveys use only data from a subset
of cases asked about son first. When respondents in 1993, 1994, 1995 and 2013 were asked a question about their daughter going into
politics before the question about their son, yes responses to both questions were higher. In Gallups 2013 survey, average responses
to questions asked about a son, a daughter, and a child were identical, with 31 percent saying they would like their child to go into
politics and 64 saying they would not.
Source: National Opinion Research Center, November 1943, November 1945; The Gallup Organization, December 1944January 1945
to 1973, 1993 to 1994, and June 2013; Pew Research Center, October 1997 and March 2010.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

The Economy and the Financial System, Seven Years after the Crash
In April 2010, 55 percent of registered voters told Fox News the country was in a recession. This summer, 22 percent gave
that response, while 37 percent described the current economic situation as a downturn but not a recession. Thirty-eight
percent said the economy is doing okay. Only 34 percent, however, say the economic system is more secure today than it
was in 2008, while 63 percent do not believe it is. Twenty percent in another question say we are more protected from a
financial crisis than we were seven years ago.
Q: Do you think . . . ?

2015

2014 2013 2012 2010

The country is currently . . .

In an economic recession
In a downturn, but not a recession
The economy is doing okay

22%

37
38

28%
39
30

27%
43
27

41%
42
15

55%
33
11

Note: Asked of registered voters. Not all askings shown.

Source: Fox News, latest that of June 2015.

Q: Thinking about the U.S. economic system in general,

compared with before the 2008 financial crisis, do you
think . . . ?
The U.S. economic system is . . .
More secure today than it was before
the 2008 economic crisis
No more secure today

34%
63

Source: Pew Research Center, February 2015.

Q: Thinking about the banking crisis that started in 2008,

do you think . . . ?
We are much more/A little more
protected from a future financial
crisis than we were seven years ago
About the same
A little less/Much less protected
Dont know

20%
35
30
14

Note: Online survey.

Source: YouGov, August 2015.

Q: During the next 12 months, do you think . . . ?

The nations economy will

Get better

Get worse

Stay about the same

Total

25% 24% 51%

Family income
Over $75,000
$50,000$75,000
$30,000$50,000
Under $30,000

28%
28
20
19

18%
54%
21 49
23 56
38
43

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, July 2015.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow;
Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar;
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

Editors: Heather Sims, Research Assistant;

Eleanor ONeil, Research Assistant.
Design: Claude Aubert.

The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll
Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

A Partial Recovery: Jobs and Incomes

Peoples opinions about job opportunities where they live have returned to pre-recession levels, but more still say jobs
are difficult to find than say there are plenty of jobs available. In a separate question, two-thirds of Americans told Pew
earlier this year that the job situation had either fully or partially recovered. Fifty-six percent felt that way about household incomes. Opinions
of both jobs and incomes
100
bulk in the partially recov90
ered category, though this
is a clear improvement
80
from two years ago, when
70
Jobs are difficult to find
Pew first asked these
questions.
60
Q: Thinking now about
job opportunities where
you live, would you say
...?

50

Note: Asked of registered

voters in October 2012 and
of a half sample in August
2014 and May 2015.
Source: Pew Research Center
and ABC News/Washington
Post, latest that of May 2015.

20

40

53%

44%
42%

40%

30

10
0

There are plenty of jobs available

in your community

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Q: Thinking about the recession that began in 2008, please tell me whether you think each of the following has fully
recovered from the recession, partially recovered, or hardly recovered at all.

2015 2013

The job situation

Fully/Partially
recovered

Hardly recovered
at all

Fully/Partially
recovered

Hardly recovered
at all

Total

67%

32%

47%

52%

Family income
$100,000 or more
$75,000$99,999
$30,000$74,999
Less than $30,000

74
78
67
61

26
22
32
39

52
50
50
42

48
50
49
56

Total

56%

42%

44%

54%

Family income
$100,000 or more
$75,000$99,999
$30,000$74,999
Less than $30,000

65
64
57
50

33
35
42
48

52
36
45
42

46
62
54
56

Household incomes

Note: Not all categories shown.

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of February 2015.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Your Personal Finances: Better but Not Back

As the graph below shows, peoples ratings of their personal financial situations and of general economic conditions have
improved since the recession, but they are still not as high as they were before its onset. In a Pew poll from earlier this
year, 30 percent said the recession had a major effect on their personal financial situation and their finances had not yet
recovered from it. About the same proportion said the recession had a major effect on them but that their finances had
mostly recovered.
Q: How would you rate your own personal financial situation?
Q: Thinking
70 about the nations economy, how would you rate economic conditions in this country today?
60

My own personal financial situation is in excellent/good shape

50

50%

43%

40
30

31%

10
0

25%

The economic conditions

in this country today are
in excellent/good shape

20

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

In Pews latest askings of the questions above, 37 percent rated their own personal financial situation as only
fair, while about one out of five rated their situation as being in poor shape. Forty-three percent rated the countrys economic conditions as only fair, while 31 percent said they were in poor shape.
Note: Personal financial situation question asked of registered voters in September 2006 and of a half sample in December 2013.
Source (personal financial situation): US News, PSRA/Newsweek, Pew Research Center/USA Today, Pew Research Center, latest that of
February 2015; (economic conditions today): Pew Research Center/USA Today, Pew Research Center, latest that of February 2015.

Q: Overall, which of the following best describes how the recession affected your own personal financial situation?

----------Recessions effect on your personal financial situation----------

Major effect,
have not recovered

Total

Major effect,
mostly recovered

Did not have a

major effect

30% 29% 40%

Family income
$100,000 or more
14%
$75,000$99,999
27
$30,000$74,999 29
Less than $30,000
38

36%
33
31
24

50%
40
39
36

Note: Total responses to this question have changed only slightly since Pew first asked it in February 2011. Then, 36 percent said the
recession had a major effect on their finances and had not recovered, 25 percent said the recession had a major effect but had mostly
recovered, and 37 percent said the recession did not have a major effect on their personal finances.
Source: Pew Research Center, February 2015.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Is the Deck Stacked? Views on Income Inequality

A common refrain from Republicans and Democrats in the 2016 campaign is that the deck is stacked against ordinary
Americans. The polls we feature in the following pages show what Americans think about opportunity and income
inequality in this country. People believe it is possible to start out poor and become rich. More people say the economic
system is basically fair than say it is basically unfair, although the division of opinion is close. These responses notwithstanding, Americans say the system generally favors the wealthy today and that its mainly just a few people at the top who
can get ahead. Identical proportions of blacks and whites (59 percent) gave that response in July.
Q: Do you think . . . ?

100

It is still possible to start out poor in this country,

work hard, and become rich

90
80
70
60
50
40

57%
38%

30

64%

It is not still possible

33%

20
10
0

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: CBS News, New York Times, and CBS News/New York Times, latest that of December 2014.

Q: Do you think . . . ?

Q: Which comes closer to your view . . . ?

The economic system in the United States is . . .

Basically fair since all Americans have an
equal opportunity to succeed
52%
Basically unfair since not all Americans
have an equal opportunity to succeed 45

In todays economy . . .
Everyone has a fair chance to get
ahead in the long run
Its mainly just a few people
at the top who have a
chance to get ahead

Source: New York Times, December 2014.

35%

61

Source: CBS News/New York Times, May 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?
The U.S. economic system generally
favors the wealthy
Is fair to most Americans

68%
27

Note: In 2014, the responses were 71 and 24 percent, respectively.

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, July 2015.

In the May 2015 CBS News/New York Times poll, 64 percent of those making less than $50,000 said it is mainly
just a few at the top who have a chance to get ahead, as did 58 percent of those in the $50,000$100,000
bracket and 54 percent of those earning more than $100,000. In a July 2015 CBS News/New York Times poll, 59
percent of whites and, separately, blacks said just a few people at the top have a chance to get ahead in todays
economy. Thirty-seven percent of whites and 39 percent of blacks said everyone has a fair chance.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

The Gap between Rich and Poor

In the next three pages, we provide different poll-based perspectives about the gap between the rich and the poor. In
Gallups trend, a majority consistently express satisfaction with the opportunity for someone in America to get ahead by
working hard. In 2014 and 2015, people were much less satisfied with the way wealth and income are distributed in the
U.S. A bare majority say the gap is a major problem, and a large number in another question say its getting larger.
Q: Next, Im going to read some aspects of life in America today. For each one, please say whether you are . . . ?

100
90
80

76%

Very/Somewhat satisfied with the opportunity for a person

in this nation to get ahead by working hard

70
60%

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

In 2014 and 2015, the two years Gallup has asked about satisfaction with wealth distribution, about 31 percent were very or somewhat satisfied with the way wealth and income
are distributed in the U.S. Both years, 67 percent were very or somewhat dissatisfied.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of January 2015.

Q: Thinking about the income gap between wealthy Americans and those who are less well-off, do you think . . . ?
Income gap is a major problem
A problem, but not a major one
Not a problem

32

15

51%

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, January 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?
The gap between the rich
and the poor in the U.S. is . . .
Getting larger
Getting smaller
Has stayed the same

67%

25

Note: In the June 2015 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute survey, 66 percent said they expected the wealth gap to grow in the next 10 years
while 16 percent said they expect it to shrink.
Source: CBS News/New York Times, May 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Opportunity Trumps Income

By a healthy margin, people are more concerned about opportunitymiddle and working class Americans not being able
to get aheadthan they are about the income gap. Most people dont see the gap as a problem as long as they are able to
provide the life they want for themselves and their families.
Q: Which concerns you more . . . ?

---------------------------------------------------------------Concerns you more----------------------------------------------------------------The income gap between

the wealthiest Americans
and the rest of the country
28%

National

37
15

68%

Democrats
Republicans

32
25

58

Men
Women

39
22
27
21
34
29
25
29

Middle and working class

Americans not being able
to get ahead financially

81

63

1834
3549
5064
65+

59

Under $30,000
$30,000$49,999
$50,000$74,999
$75,000+

72

71
69
75
66
66
69
66

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, April 2015.

Q: Which of the following is closer to your view . . . ?

As long as I am able to provide the life

I want for myself and my family,

it doesnt matter if others are

substantially wealthier than I
64%

National

63
60
68
70

30 or younger
3150
5164
65 and older

67
66
54

White
African-American
Hispanic

The concentration of wealth

and privilege within the top
1 percent of American society
is a problem
36%
37
40
32
30
33
34

46

Source: Burson-Marsteller/Penn, Schoen, Berland/The Atlantic/Aspen Institute, June 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

The Income Gap: What Is to be Done?

At this stage of the 2016 campaign, income inequality does not rank as a top-tier public concern. As two questions below
show, question emphasis strongly influences how much Americans think government should do about the problem. In
one question, a solid majority say the federal government should pursue policies that reduce the gap. In another, however,
Americans are consistently split about whether the government should act or stand aside and let the market operate freely
even if the gap gets wider.
Q: How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year -- will it be extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important?

Extremely important to
your vote for president next year

Economy
Social Security and Medicare*
Terrorism*
Health care
Education*
Gun policy*
Illegal immigration
Taxes*
Foreign policy
Income gap between
the rich and poor*
Abortion*
Global warming*

42
39
36
35

27
23

Very important to your vote

for president next year

52%
50
49
47
47

36%
31
31
36
34
26
29
34
35

33

28
18
24

Note: Sample is registered voters. *Asked of a half sample.

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, September 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?


The federal government should
pursue policies that try to
reduce the gap between the
wealthy and the less well-off
Should not

National
response

------------Responses of-----------Rep. Dem. Ind.

32

61%

35%
57

88%
7

59%
34

Note: Sample is registered voters. In an ABC News/Washington Post question from May 2015, 47 percent of national adults said the federal government should pursue policies to reduce the gap between wealthy and less well-off Americans strongly, 15 percent somewhat,
10 percent should not pursue somewhat and 21 percent should not pursue strongly.
Source: Quinnipiac University, July 2015.

Q: In thinking about the gap between the rich and everyone else, do you think it would be . . . ?

Better for the government

to implement policies
designed to shrink the gap
46%
44
45
45

April 2015
June 2014
March 2014
December 2013

Better for the government to stand

aside and let the market operate
freely even if the gap gets wider
47%
47
43
46

Source: Selzer & Company/Bloomberg, latest that of April 2015.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 10

What Does it Mean to Be Rich?

Americans views about how much money a typical family of four would need to be considered rich bulk at the lower end
of the income categories. The vast majority say it is less than $300,000 per year. Three-in-ten dont appear to be familiar
with the term 1 percenter. Fifty percent favor limiting the amount of money earned by top executives, while 45 percent
oppose the proposal.
Q: About how much money per year do you think . . . ?
A typical family of four needs to make in order to be considered rich

2014

Under $100,000
$100,000$199,999
$200,000$299,999
$300,000$499,999*
$500,000$999,999*
$1,000,000 or more*

2009
18%
27
20

2005
8%

18

11
12
7

9
7

16%
26

8
8

19

29

Note: *Income categories are combined.

Source: March 2005 and December 2014, New York Times; April 2009, CBS News/New York Times.

In a June 2015 CBS News/Vanity Fair survey, 30 percent said they were not familiar with the term 1 percenter.
Twenty-six percent said they did not know anyone who is a 1 percenter, 16 percent said a few of the people they
know are, 11 percent said just one or two people they know, and 7 percent said most of the people they know.

Executive Pay and the Big Bucks

Q: How much should the highest paid employee receive
compared to the lowest paid employee?
Ten times more
50 times more
100 times more
350 times more
Everyone should be paid
the same

Q: Do you . . . ?
Favor limiting the amount
of money earned by
top executives at
large corporations
Oppose

35%

17

50%
45

Source: CBS News/New York Times, May 2015.

19

Source: CBS News/Vanity Fair, June 2015.

Q: Does it trouble you or not trouble you that some of the following people have earned more than $100 million in a
single year?

That these people have earned more than $100 million in a year

Troubles Troubles me Doesnt trouble

Troubles me a lot
me some
very little
me at all
Banking executives
Oil company executives
Professional athletes
Movie stars
Tech company executives
Lottery winners

37
36

43

54%
52

20%
20
24
21
27
13

13%
12
15
21
18
21

10%
13
15
19
15
52

Note: Online survey.

Source: YouGov, October 2013.

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Haves and Have-Nots

Pollsters first asked if America is divided into two groups, the haves and the have-nots, in 1984. Opinion has been
relatively split over time, though slightly more say they do not think of America in this way.
Q: Some people think of American society as divided into two groups, the haves and have-nots, while others think its
incorrect to think of America that way. Do you, yourself, think . . . ?
100
90
80

America is not divided into "haves" and "have-nots"

70
60
50
40
30

54%

61%

45%

31%
America is divided into these two groups

20
10

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Note: Asked of registered voters in August 1984.

Source: The Gallup Organization, CBS News/New York Times, Pew Research Center, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of
JuneJuly 2015 (Gallup).

When CNN/ORC last asked this question in April 2015, Republicans and Democrats responses were exact opposites. Thirty-eight percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats said America is divided into haves and
have-nots. Sixty-one percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats said America is not divided into these
two groups. Among independents, 46 percent said the country is divided this way; 52 percent said it is not.

Who is a have and a have-not?

Q: If you had to choose, which of these groups are you in, the haves or the have-nots?

I personally am a have

National

I personally am a have-not
58%

Responses of
Whites
Blacks
Hispanics

49
47

Responses of those whose

household income is . . .
$90,000 and over
$36,000$89,999
Less than $36,000

42

38%

62%

59

33%

77%

19%

35

48
51

53

Source: The Gallup Organization, JuneJuly 2015.

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