GEN N 210 Risk Management, Fall 2008A Sample Solution of Mid-term Exam

CUFE, CHP, Mid-Semester Exam, Fall 2008

Gen N 210: Risk
Management
Time: 90 min
Neat, organized, direct answers always enhances image and initiates good impression.
A. What you see is not always what others see? Give three reasons for this difference.
What one sees differs from what others see is attributed to differences in
1) Culture, because culture conditions general attitude towards events
2) Background and history: persons experience conditions ways of seeing things in a
positive or negative.
3) Education and training make the person aware of many things illiterate are not or
cannot perceive
B. Components of any system are sources of risk. Comment by developing the following
arguments: general meaning of the word source, validity of the statement, appropriateness
of the use of the word risk in this statement.
Hazard being potential of happening of UDE, this statement can be considered correct
if the word risk is replace by the word hazard or potential risk. Because hazards
lead to UDE which in turn has cause damage or losses. Normally, a person thinks in
terms of hazards first before guessing consequences of UDE.

1. Give values for the parallel boundary

lines in terms of risk number. (letters
indicate initials of colors)
2. What is the name given to these lines?
3. Where is the fourth line?
4. Why these lines are called boundaries?

Risk representation on a log-log paper

parallel lines

R
Log Severity

C. Comment on the figure.

Line value

Y
G

?
Log Probability

1. The boundaries separate between colors in a four-level risk system, the values of the
lines shown are 1 (separates between green and yellow, 2(separates between yellow
and orange, 3 (separates between orange and red)
2. These lines are called iso-risk lines since they represent the relationship x.y=c in a
natural scale.
3. The fourth line represent the upper limit of the red color, this line does not show in
this representation, since there is no upper limit for the red category.
4. These are called boundaries since they separate between qualitative categories of
risk as mentioned in #1
D. For a given traffic system, the probability of occurrence of a certain daily car accident is
0.00001, the total direct cost of the accident is L.E 20000. Calculate the direct and social
risk costs; for social cost, use a factor of 10. What is the significance of the calculated risk
numbers?
Risk (r) = p*s, s being the social cost. The social cost is much larger than the UDE (the
factor to change direct cost to social cost is given, equals 10 times)
R = 0.00001*20000*10= 2 /accident/car/day
This means that the society (who bears the social cost) should recover on a daily basis
LE 2 from each car (LE 730 per year) instead of recovering the LE 200000 from those
who were behind the accident.

Gen N 210: Risk Management Fall 2008

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GEN N 210 Risk Management, Fall 2008A Sample Solution of Mid-term Exam

E. Build a line of analysis in a PRA sheet corresponding to the fall of a heavy load while
being handled by a group of persons.
What can
go wrong?
UDE

Consequences
Of UDE

P, category

Lifting,
Fall of the
handling a
object
heavy object

Severe injury
of one person,
at least

2 (estimate
based on
awareness
of the
system)

Operation,
process

Risk number
S,
category and rank

R
(4)

F. Build the following intermediate fire scenario. Fill-in the missing information in the
blank boxes: probability, or fault-event or category of fault-event.
2nd UDE
intermediate fire

0.00015
&
0.15

0.001

1st UDE (small fire)

Butane, gas

propagator

&

spark

0.01

0.1

enabler

paper or inflammable material

or
starters

0.06

smoking

0.03

Static electricity

0.01

Other sources of heat

G. Check the appropriate statement or word or complete the missing information

(  ) Hazard is mono-dimensional, sometimes not seen
( ) Hazard is two-dimensional, sometimes is hidden.
( ) Risk Hazard is two-dimensional, sometimes seen.
( ) Danger is a variety of risk very close to the undesired event.
( ) High-level hazard close to the undesired event is called danger.
( ) Hazard is not obvious, where danger could be sensed or seen.
a. Risk
(
(
(
(
(

) Can be zero in certain situation

) Can usually be found in non-systems
) Is always dealt with in closed systems
) Can be planned and prevented
) Is largely influenced by the culture of humans

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GEN N 210 Risk Management, Fall 2008A Sample Solution of Mid-term Exam
( ) Is always your destiny (Qadhar) and has no cure
( ) and Management are complementary
b. Near miss events are
(
(
(
(
(

) More frequent than other events

) Less frequent than accidents
) More frequent than incidents
) Always the source of hazards
) of zero risk number

c. () Sickness or ( ) Event or ( ) Hazard: is an acute and chronic UDE caused by

physical/psychological, chemical, or biological agents.
d. Examples of sources of information for risk assessment are
( ) Accident reports
( ) Medical records
( ) Personal information

( ) Safety records
( ) Time of day
( ) None of these

e. OSHA stands for Occupational Safety and Health Organization

It is clear that people who work in an environment where noise is > 80 decibel have to use
ear protectors if they worked more than 8 hours per day.
f. Order the following from green to red. Write down the word designating the color in
the space between brackets
(RED ) Certain
(ORANGE ) Likely
These are levels of (

) severity

( YELLOW) May Happen

( GREEN ) Unlikely
(  ) probability ( ) risk ( ) hazard

g. Accident or incidents are the result of ( ) a single cause ( ) multiple causes ( )

human faults, mainly ( ) others faults ( ) all equipment failures ( ) all of these

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