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By Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, Casey Research
It’s now been a year since the dark days of early March 2009, when, although no one
knew it at the time, the stock market hit rock bottom. From there, all of the indexes
went on a tear through the rest of the year, moving almost uninterruptedly higher
before easing slightly in the first two months of 2010. At this writing (March 5), the Dow
is still up 60%, the S&P 500 68%, and the NASDAQ 83%.
Virtually no one was calling for this kind of rally a year ago. But it happened. So investors
are either seeing the “green shoots” supposedly sprouting from the moribund economy
or believe that they’re about to break ground any day now. That sentiment is
continually reinforced by government officials and media talking heads who almost
universally proclaim that “the worst is past,” “we’re back from the brink,” or other
words to that effect.
It’s often said that stock market action is a leading indicator, reflecting what investors
think the economy will be like six or nine months down the road.
Are they right? Will good times soon be here again? Or is this just a big dead‐cat
bounce?
Jobs: Now here, we’ve clearly turned the corner. Everyone says so. For evidence, all we
need do is look at the declining rate of job loss in the country. Uh‐huh.
Perhaps it’s rude of us to point this out, but a declining rate of job loss is still a job loss.
It is not the same as job creation.
The hard reality behind February’s “encouraging” numbers is that 14.9 million people
remained out of work. 8.4 million jobs now have been lost since the start of the
recession. In addition, there is a net need for 100,000 new jobs a month, just to keep up
with first‐time entrants to the workforce.
Even if the economy were suddenly to start churning out new jobs at the robust rate of
a half‐million a month – and the chances of that range from zero to none – it would still
take nearly two years to return just to pre‐recession employment levels.
(Near‐term employment figures may blip up, as the government hires one and a half
million people – who knew we needed so many? – to help take the census. That could
lead to a classic false dawn.)
Anyone looking to the housing market to lead the recovery, as it often does, had better
find a magnifying glass. January marked the third consecutive monthly drop in new
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home sales, and it was a whopping 11.2% tumble. Mortgage applications fell to the
lowest level in 13 years. There was even a decline of 6.1% from January of 2009, itself a
very dark month. Congress’s extension of home buyers’ tax credits is proving to be of
increasingly little consequence.
New home sales are very important, since they cause a cascade effect down through the
entire supply chain, from architects to building contractors, to sawmills, to sheetrock
manufacturers, to carpenters, plumbers, and electricians. But sales of existing homes
are also relevant, and there, too, the figures are grim. After piggybacking on federal
subsidies through the fall, sales absorbed the worst pummeling on record in December,
down 16.2%. January was a little better, only off 7.2%.
One number that is unfortunately growing is this: distressed sales, such as foreclosures,
accounted for 38% of sales in January, up from about 32% in December. People are
losing their homes at an increasing rate, with few buyers stepping up to the plate.
But hey, maybe there is a huge pent‐up housing demand out there. We doubt it, but if
there is, it doesn’t matter. Because lenders are ignoring it. In 2009, U.S. banks posted
their sharpest decline in lending since 1942. One reason is that many are too cash‐
strapped themselves to deal with borrowers. According to the FDIC, at year’s end its
“problem” list of U.S. banks at risk of failing hit a 16‐year high at 702 (or nearly one in
eleven), rocketing up from 552 at the end of September and 416 at the end of June. And
little wonder. More than 5% of all outstanding loans are now at least three months past
due, the highest level recorded in the 26 years the data have been collected.
Then there’s those that can’t lend because they’re no longer with us. 140 banks went
belly‐up in 2009, and 2010’s total will be worse than that if January’s 15 failures prove
representative. The FDIC is bankrupt after reporting a $20.9 billion loss in the fourth
quarter of 2009 in its Deposit Insurance Fund.
However, never let it be said that the government won’t try to squeeze some lemonade
out of its bag of lemons. To wit, the FDIC’s own financial woes haven’t prevented it from
opening a huge new satellite office in the Chicago area. The facility will be dedicated to
managing receiverships and liquidating assets from failed Midwest banks, and will
occupy seven floors of an 11‐story building. The office space being leased is well over
100,000 square feet and will employ approximately 500 temporary employees and
contractors.
Does the FDIC know something we don’t? We can’t say for sure, but the fact is that the
agency has already opened similar offices in Irvine, California, and Jacksonville, Florida.
Each time, the number of bank failures in those states spiked dramatically after the FDIC
set up shop.
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Elsewhere, consumer confidence is flagging and, since the economy is 75% consumer‐
driven, that doesn’t bode well. The Conference Board’s index took a swan dive in
February, to its lowest point since last April. The index plunged to 46 from January’s
reading of 56.5, stifling the previous three months’ uptrend. As a measure of how bleak
the public mood is, the economy is considered stable only when the consumer
confidence reading exceeds 90. We’re barely halfway there.
And finally, we don’t want to lose sight of the 800‐pound gorilla in the room, the federal
debt. How bad is it? Well, the Bank for International Settlements recently released a
very frightening figure. In order just stabilize debt at pre‐crisis levels, the BIS says the
U.S. government must run a budget surplus of 4.3% of GDP. Every year. For ten years.
For an in‐depth look, try Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s new book, This Time is
Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (co‐authored with Carmen Reinhart of the
University of Maryland), the first comprehensive survey of past financial crises around
the world.
Dr. Rogoff, who may be the country’s leading expert on the historical record, concludes
that a banking crisis often leads a country into default, because government’s response
is usually to try to prop up the financial system with yet more debt.
If that sounds familiar and disconcerting, it should. Even more so because Rogoff has
identified a clear tipping point, beyond which there is little hope of recovery. When a
government’s debt grows to equal annual GDP, the game is essentially over.
Where we are now: We have $12.5 trillion in gross debt, growing at $2 trillion per year,
on a GDP of $14.3 trillion. Next year, it will be $12.5T + $2T = $14.5 trillion on a
projected $14.5T of GDP. Or 100%. A level we cannot survive for long.
That means it’s likely, in the not‐too‐distant‐future, that the government will be
confronted with a very stark choice between defaulting on the debt or trying to inflate
its way out. The former would kill off economic growth and likely launch a worldwide
depression of epic proportions.
Disastrous as that would be, if the alternative is chosen and Washington’s printing
presses beget hyperinflation, that would probably be worse. In a serious deflation, those
who have saved for a rainy day can make it through okay. In hyperinflation, which
unconstrained further spending could easily bring on, everyone loses.
The truly prudent prepare, as best they can, for either eventuality.
How to prepare for the worsening crisis… how best to diversify your portfolio and
protect your assets… which investments and specific stocks to pick… learn all that and
more at the Casey Research Crisis & Opportunity Summit in Las Vegas, April 30 – May
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