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Executive Summary

This is the first in a series of papers that will explore how Zanesville can

leverage its assets to attract, retain and develop industries that support economic growth and contribute to the city’s tax base. The report began as an exercising benchmark to establishing comparable

cities. As multiple sources of data were uncovered the report included a snap shot of Zanesville’s workforce. The report is broken into three sections: 1. Comparison Benchmarks, 2. Economic Demographic Information and 3. Employment Clusters Workforce development is an important piece of creating incentive packages. It helps answer not only what kind of businesses may be enticed to locate here but also what kinds of policies and goals the incentives should address.

Part1

The report compares Zanesville to:

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Ohio

Appalachian Ohio

Cities of comparable population size (+/- 4,400 people)

Cities with similar population, poverty, median income, unemployment,

etc.

Part 2

The report discovered that the City of Zanesville has fallen

behind its peers across spectrums in nearly every economic category. Poverty has remained persistently high since 1989

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Median income levels are significantly below average

Lower than average labor force participation

Significantly higher population of adults 25 years or older without a

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Part 3

high school diploma Lower percentage of adults with higher education degrees

The report attempts to explain why Zanesville has fallen behind

by looking beyond educational attainments (which are a major driver in today’s knowledge driven economy) to what kinds of jobs are available and

how much slack exists in the job marketplace. Education and healthcare are the area’s largest employment cluster followed by retail trade and food service/arts and entertainment The market has responded to the educational levels present. An analysis of job openings showed that there were more job openings for high school graduates (358) than for associates, trade, bachelors, masters and doctoral degrees combined (306) The highest number of jobs available paid less than $30,000/year The largest drag on the city’s unemployment rate is the 3,308 individuals without a high school education. Only 169 jobs are available for them based solely on education. Zanesville has a higher concentration of job classifications than its peer cities that have a low median wage with very limited wealth generation potential.

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A brief examination of in demand jobs and education infrastructure is

included. These challenges are not insurmountable. We are not the first or last city to

experience problems of this scope. By setting goals as a community we can overcome some of these deficits. Where we are currently doesn’t have to be where we will be in the future.

The Cycle of Decline

Communit y stagnates Communit y thinks it is less than People Acceptanc e "it's how it
Communit
y
stagnates
Communit
y thinks it
is less
than
People
Acceptanc
e "it's how
it is"
leave for
better
opportuniti
es
People
Tax base
lose hope
shrinks
Services
stretched /
crime
increases

Our job is to break the cycle!

3

Revitalize Cycle

Buy in Strengths from & influencer Weakness s & Identified leaders Address weakness Re-invent & city
Buy in
Strengths
from
&
influencer
Weakness
s &
Identified
leaders
Address
weakness
Re-invent
&
city again
enhance
strength
Transform
image /
Tax base
market
goes up
communit
y
New
People
industry/
see hope!
jobs
Investmen
ts
are
made

4

Part I:

Comparison Benchmarks

Using Data to Determine Comparable Cities

Long time city residents will tell you what Zanesville was like in the 1950s and how many jobs there were. People with shorter memories will tell you what Zanesville is like today; some will do so with hope whereas others will be quick to point out the city’s shortcomings. However, there is very little talk of the future and what possibilities could be in store, either good or bad.

The overall purpose of this report is to show where Zanesville is today and show how it compares to other cities so that its leaders can make informed decisions about where Zanesville needs to go and how to get there. It compares cities across all of Ohio, cities with similar population (all sample), cities within Appalachian Ohio and cities with similar poverty, median income, unemployment rates and population (sub sample). A brief explanation of the data that a site selector can see about

Zanesville and what this means about the kinds of industry that the city can attract is also included. The report also examines educational attainment, the jobs

available within Zanesville and how this compares to the sub sample.

A brief look

at age distribution and home values and home ownership rates are also included. This way the reader will be able to see exactly where Zanesville stands against a number of its peers. Its leaders can then determine what course they want to chart for the future of the City of Zanesville using a data driven approach.

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The Appalachian Region

Zanesville is located within the Appalachian region. 32 of Ohio’s 88 counties are considered Appalachia extending from the shores of Lake Erie (Ashtabula) to the Ohio River and flowing along until the Cincinnati border.

5 The Appalachian Region Zanesville is located within the Appalachian region. 32 of Ohio’s 88 counties

Every county is ranked by the Appalachian Regional Commission by its economic status comparative to the rest of the nation. Muskingum County is considered a transitional county. Transitional counties are defined as counties that “rank between the worst 25% and best 25% of the nation’s counties.” To determine a county’s status the Appalachian Regional Commission looks at three key indicators and compares them to national averages:

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  • 2. Per capita market income

  • 3. Poverty rate

Muskingum County is not in nearly as bad of shape as some of its neighboring

counties who are distressed (worst 10%) or at-risk (worst 10 – 25%).

This does not

give Zanesville or Muskingum County a competitive advantage as most Ohio counties that are Appalachian are considered transitional. The south side of Zanesville and immediately to the north of I-70 is considered distressed (worst 10%) as shown in the following map from the Appalachian Regional Commission:

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7 Zanesville Compared to Other Ohio Appalachian Ohio Cities Zanesville is the 61 largest city in

Zanesville Compared to Other Ohio Appalachian Ohio Cities

Zanesville is the 61 st largest city in Ohio. Finding a city of comparable size to Zanesville in Appalachia is a challenge.

Appalachian City/County

2013 Population

8

Youngstown, Mahoning County

65,062

Union Township, Clermont County

47,564

Miami Township, Clermont County

41,804

Warren, Trumbull County

40,633

Boardman Township, Mahoning County

40,068

Austintown Township, Mahoning County

36,009

Zanesville, Muskingum County

25,372

Athens, Athens County

24,024

Alliance, Stark/Mahoning Counties

22,256

Chillicothe, Ross County

21,738

Batavia, Clermont County

20,437

Portsmouth, Scioto County

20,226

Ashtabula, Ashtabula County

19,124

Niles, Trumbull County

19,266

Steubenville, Jefferson County

18,659

Despite the challenge in finding a city of similar population to Zanesville there is data on the entire 33 county Appalachian region from the Ohio Development Services Agency. This data will be referenced throughout the report as ‘Appalachia’ to give the reader insight on how Zanesville is competing within the Appalachian region, even if not directly to its peers in terms of population.

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Zanesville Compared to Cities with Similar Population

There are only six cities in Ohio in the 25,000 people range so Zanesville was compared to cities that had between 4,400 people more and 4,400 people less than Zanesville. In all 29 cities were compared to Zanesville on population ranging from Ohio’s 51 st largest city, Hilliard (2013 population 29,715) to Sidney, the 79 th largest city (21,095). 10 cities had a larger population whereas 18 had less than Zanesville. The sample cities are both suburbs (17) and rural communities (12). They are geographically dispersed and cover Northern and Southern Ohio. Some cities are very rich and some are very poor. This grouping will be referred to as ‘all sample’ throughout the report.

Ran

City/County

Suburb/Rur

US Census 2013

Pop

k

al?

Population Estimate

Variance

  • 51 Suburb

Hilliard, Franklin

29,715

+4,234

  • 52 Austintown, Mahoning

Suburb

29,605

+4,124

 

Garfield Heights,

Suburb

28,650

  • 53 Cuyahoga

 

+3,169

 

Shaker Heights,

Suburb

28,200

  • 54 Cuyahoga

 

+2,719

  • 55 Rural

Medina, Medina

26,617

+1,136

  • 56 Barberton, Summit

Suburb

26,461

+980

  • 57 Wooster, Wayne

Rural

26,260

+779

  • 58 Suburb

Xenia, Greene

25,835

+354

  • 59 Suburb

Green, Ohio

25,742

+261

  • 60 Rural

Sandusky, Erie

25,606

+125

  • 61 Rural

Zanesville

25,481

0

  • 62 Riverside, Montgomery

Suburb

25,181

-300

  • 63 Rural

Troy, Miami

25,134

-347

  • 64 Trotwood, Montgomery

Suburb

24,375

-1,106

  • 65 Rural

Athens, Athens

24,201

-1,280

 

Centerville,

Suburb

23,965

  • 66 Greene/Montgomery

 

-1,516

  • 67 Solon, Cuyahoga

Suburb

23,214

-2,267

 

Maple Heights,

Suburb

22,996

  • 68 Cuyahoga

 

-2,485

  • 69 Avon Lake, Lorain

Suburb

22,708

-2,773

  • 70 Marysville, Union

Rural

22,581

-2,900

  • 71 Hudson, Summit

Suburb

22,335

-3,146

  • 72 Willoughby, Lake

Suburb

22,334

-3,147

 

Alliance,

Rural

22,256

  • 73 Summit/Mahoning

 

-3,225

  • 74 South Euclid, Cuyahoga

Suburb

22,139

-3,342

  • 75 Chillicothe, Ross

Rural

21,885

-3,596

  • 76 Wadsworth, Medina

Rural

21,678

-3,803

  • 77 Oxford, Butler

Rural

21,608

-3,873

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  • 78 Avon, Lorain

Suburb

21,440

-4,041

  • 79 Sidney, Shelby

Rural

21,095

-4,386

Zanesville Compared to Other Cities of Similar Demographics, Income, Etc.

The all sample is useful for general purposes but cannot be trusted to deliver consistently reliable data. Comparing cities such as Hilliard or Avon to Zanesville and leaving the reader to draw his or her own conclusions would be unfair. Hilliard, Avon, Avon Lake, Hudson and Green are all very affluent suburbs of major metropolitan areas. Conversely, cities such as Athens and Oxford are home to major universities and the transient nature of college students will not provide accurate data.

The all sample category was then subdivided into cities for closer similarities to Zanesville beyond population. These cities will be termed ‘sub sample’ and include the following:

City

Population

2013

2013

2013

Square

Name

% Poverty

Median

Unemploym

Miles

 

Income

ent

Alliance

22,256

26.9%

$31,152

15.7%

8.961

Barberton

26,461

20.5%

$37,819

12.4%

9.259

Chillicothe

21,885

23.6%

$36,927

17.5%

10.6

Sandusky

25,606

23.1%

$35,776

11.7%

21.91

Trotwood

24,375

21.2%

$36,277

14.6%

30.5

Xenia

25,835

24.5%

$39,756

10.9%

13.29

Zanesville

25,481

29.7%

$26,986

13.3%

12.14

These seven cities have more in common than population. Three of them are home to university campuses. Ohio University has branches in Chillicothe (2,330 students) and Zanesville (2,042 students) and Alliance is home to Mount Union (2,262 students). All of these cities, like Zanesville, were once industrial powerhouses that are now struggling to recreate their tax base in a knowledge driven economy. All of them have a higher than Ohio’s average level of poverty (15.8%), lower than average state median income ($48,308) and higher than average unemployment (10%). Three of the seven sub sample cities are in rural areas, only Trotwood, Xenia and Barberton are considered suburbs for this report’s purposes. Only Chillicothe and Alliance have no federal interstate access. Sandusky, like Zanesville, also relies on tourism to boost its municipal revenue. The sub sample also is geographically relevant; three cities, Alliance, Chillicothe and Zanesville, are all Appalachian cities. With the exception of Sandusky and Trotwood, most of the cities are close to the land mass of Zanesville.

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What Do Site Selectors See in Zanesville?

Let’s pretend company ABC is expanding operations and hires a site selection consultant. The site selection consultant reviews available properties that fit ABC’s parameters and finds an option in Zanesville. The site selection company then contacts local businesses to determine what the business and workforce climate is like so it can find the perfect match for their client. If the businesses that are contacted report a challenge in finding qualified applicants for job openings it may be enough to turn them off and look elsewhere. If the parameters are still met the company then focuses further on the community and what the likelihood of satisfying their client’s needs will be.

This information is now easier to find in Ohio than ever. By using the JobsOhio website’s site selection tool hundreds of prospects are quickly eliminated and site selectors and other economic development professionals can judge a community without ever stepping foot in it. In a single page the site selector can determine community fit for their clients with minimal effort. Zanesville’s classification (known as a top tapestry segment) is a quick overview of the community based on a variety of data points. The descriptions for the tapestry segments are included in the appendixes of this document. Zanesville is:

  • 1. Hard scrabble road (the one that appears on the JobsOhio community profile) – 13% = unemployment twice the average U.S. rate with a $26,000 median income and 38% of the population with at least a high school diploma. The data pulled from a variety of sources as part of this research supports this designation as being the top tier for Zanesville.

  • 2. Salt of the earth (does not appear on JobsOhio) – 12% = steady employment in trades such as construction and manufacturing with a $53,000 median income and 42% with at least a high school diploma.

  • 3. Small town simplicity (does not appear on JobsOhio) – 10% = 1 in 4 families below the poverty level and half of small town simplicity is 55 years or older with a median income of $27,000 and 65% with a high school diploma or some college.

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This small, 1% difference, between the #1 Hardscrabble Road and the #2 Salt of the Earth affects how businesses and developers see the city. By changing just 1% of the city’s workforce population from Hardscrabble to Salt of the Earth the City of Zanesville can reap enormous rewards for everyone.

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Part II:

Economic and Demographic Information

Poverty in Zanesville

Traditionally, people have flocked to cities because cities generate wealth and opportunity. Overall, Zanesville is the 14 th poorest city in Ohio, based on percentage of individuals who live in poverty, even when compared to much larger cities like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton and Toledo.

 

% Poverty

Population

OH Pop

 

City

2013

1

2013

2

Rank 2

  • 1 Oxford

46.0%

21,608

77

  • 2 Youngstown

36.4%

66,511

9

  • 3 Cleveland

35.4%

394,335

2

  • 4 Kent

35.3%

31,301

46

  • 5 Dayton

34.7%

143,446

6

  • 6 Lima

33.9%

38,570

31

 

Bowling

  • 7 Green

32.5%

31,049

47

  • 8 Warren

32.3%

41,199

28

  • 9 Canton

31.7%

73,027

8

  • 10 Portsmouth

30.6%

20,357

84

  • 11 Cincinnati

30.4%

297,150

3

  • 12 Lorain

30.4%

64,017

10

  • 13 Springfield

30.4%

60,423

12

 
  • 14 Zanesville

29.7%

25,481

61

  • 15 Marion

27.9%

36,857

32

  • 16 Akron

27.5%

199,038

5

  • 17 Toledo

27.2%

285,459

4

  • 18 Alliance

26.9%

22,256

73

  • 1 Development Services Agency of Ohio, The Ohio Poverty Report, January 2015

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With such a high ranking of the percent of people who live in poverty it should not be surprising that the city does not fare well between the comparison groups. Though it is ranked significantly below both Athens and Oxford it should be remembered that both of these are considered college towns where a large percentage of their population is poor because they do not have much income to declare; their major focus is higher education, not earning a wage. Zanesville also has a significant higher education population and it should not be discounted in factoring into the concentration of poverty within the city’s borders. However, the population of students at Ohio University Zanesville 3 (2,042) do not compare to the Ohio University at Athens (20,664 students) and at Miami University in Oxford (18,456 students). The City of Alliance has a high concentration of poverty but is also home to Mount Union College. The student population of Mount Union is 2,262 and is similar to Zanesville’s known college population.

City

2013 Population

2013 %

Change 1989 -

Estimate

Poverty

2013

Athens

24,201

57.4%

12.7%

Oxford

21,608

46.0%

4.3%

Zanesville

25,481

29.7%

3.8%

Alliance

22,256

26.9%

7.5%

Xenia

25,835

24.5%

9.0%

Chillicothe

21,885

23.6%

3.8%

Sandusky

25,606

23.1%

7.7%

Trotwood

24,375

21.2%

15.2%

Barberton

26,461

20.5%

3.6%

Maple Heights

22,996

19.5%

15.5%

All Sample Avg (- Athens/Oxford)

14.2%

5.2%

Appalachia % below poverty level

13.0%

no data

Sub Sample Avg.

23.30%

7.80%

Ohio Average

15.8%

3.3%

The level of poverty in Zanesville has remained relatively consistent since 1989, it

has only increased 3.8% over 30 years.

At first glance the lower percentage

change might be misconstrued as a positive but what it really means is that Zanesville has been experiencing high levels of poverty for at least three decades. This is shown by the fact that the other comparable cities (sub sample) have recorded a higher percentage of change in poverty but still are more than 6% lower

3 I attempted to get enrollment data from Zane State and have not heard anything back

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on average in poverty than Zanesville. No data was available on the entire Appalachian region for this measure of poverty, only the percentage of people who live below the poverty line.

Purchasing Power

It has already been established that the City of Zanesville has a higher concentration of poverty than its peers. This is further reflected by the average citizen of Zanesville has the lowest median household income level of the study group once Athens is removed due to the high concentration of college students with no or limited income.

City

2013 Population

2013 Median

Estimate

2013 % Poverty

Income 4

Athens

24,201

57.4%

$17,933.00

Zanesville

25,481

29.7%

$26,986.00

Oxford

21,608

46.0%

$28,429.00

Alliance

22,256

26.9%

$31,152.00

Sandusky

25,606

23.1%

$35,776.00

Trotwood

24,375

21.2%

$36,277.00

Maple Heights

22,996

19.5%

$36,664.00

Chillicothe

21,885

23.6%

$36,927.00

Barberton

26,461

20.5%

$37,819.00

Xenia

25,835

24.5%

$39,756.00

All Sample Average

$51,938.96

Appalachia Average

$42,379.00

Sub Sample Average

$36,284.00

Ohio Average

$48,308.00

The comparable cities (sub sample) make more than $9,000 in median income than Zanesville. Again, changing the 1% difference between the top tapestry segments would be a huge help. Zanesville’s income tax rate is 1.9% so every $1,000 that median income goes up the City of Zanesville can collect an additional $19.00 in income tax. For illustrative purposes, let’s pretend that the median income rate went from $26,986 to $27,986 and affected all individuals in the workforce with at least a high school diploma.

Workforce

Participating in

Multiplied by

High School

Population

Labor Force

$19.00 (1.9% per

Degree or Higher

4 U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey

17

 

$1,000.0)

(79.7%)

19,604 people over

54.2% (10,625

$201,875.00

$160,894.00

16 years

people)

For every thousand dollars in median income that Zanesville is able to raise for individuals with a high school degree or better the city will net an additional $160,894 in city funds to provide for needed services. If the city was able to raise median income level for only 50% of the population in the labor force (versus 80%) they would raise $100,937. A small change in median income results in extra revenue for the city and, more importantly, an increased standard of living for our citizens.

Zanesville’s low purchasing power is partly due to the fact that it has a high concentration of poverty but other factors are at play. As shown in the following table Zanesville has the lowest percentage of individuals who are in the labor market (54.2%) once Athens and Oxford (college towns) are removed. With less people working and contributing to the economy Zanesville has less people with disposable income to buy goods as consumers.

City

Population 16

% in Labor

Unemployment

years +

Force

Rate 5

Athens

22,720

50.7%

12.6%

Oxford

20,470

50.9%

6.8%

Zanesville

19,604

54.2%

13.3%

Chillicothe

17,642

55.2%

17.5%

Trotwood

19,807

57.8%

14.6%

Xenia

19,846

58.3%

10.9%

Alliance

18,095

58.5%

15.7%

Centerville

19,810

58.7%

7.2%

Marysville

17,397

59.8%

7.4%

Wooster

21,289

61.3%

6.5%

All Sample Average

62.9%

9.9%

Appalachia

1,572,996

58.6%

8.9%

Sub Sample Average

59.3%

13.8%

Ohio Average

63.9%

10.0%

One bright spot from this data is that Zanesville’s unemployment rate is not as high as some of its peers in the sub sample. However, it should be noted that the unemployment rate is based on the number of people actively seeking work and does not include individuals who have given up on finding a job or workers who are

5 U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey (for pop 16+, % in labor force, unemployment)

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in part time positions but want full time. There are also a number of people who are on government assistance, work under the table or stay at home with their families instead of placing young children in daycare. Based on the low percentage of active labor force participation it can be assumed that Zanesville has a higher unemployment rate than officially recorded. It is likely that many of the other bottom 10 cities in labor force participation are also experiencing the same problems or scenarios.

Educational Attainment Levels

Zanesville’s chronic poverty, unemployment and labor force participation can be partially explained by the educational attainment levels of its residents. The jobs of the past where a strong back and a limited education were enough to provide an income large enough to support a family are long gone. Even manufacturing companies are focusing more on hard skills such as math, technology and computer skills to compete in a globalized market 6 .

Zanesville has the lowest percentage of its peers that graduated high school at 79.7%. 20% of adults over 25 years of age in Zanesville do not have a high school diploma or GED 7 . There are 3% of adults who are over 25 years old that have less than a 9 th grade education and 17.3% of adults who got past the 9 th grade but did not matriculate. This is 10.5% higher than the peer group as a whole and 8.8% higher than the state average.

City

2013 Median

Pop 25

HS or Higher

Income

Years +

(25 years +)

Zanesville

$26,986.00

16,684

79.7%

Sandusky

$35,776.00

17,470

83.1%

Chillicothe

$36,927.00

15,367

83.2%

Trotwood

$36,277.00

16,640

83.5%

Alliance

$31,152.00

14,011

83.7%

Sidney

$43,347.00

13,646

83.9%

Barberton

$37,819.00

18,269

85.2%

  • 6 The Manufacturing Institute, “The Skills Gap in U.S. Manufacturing 2015 and Beyond”

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Riverside

$41,104.00

16,746

85.7%

Garfield Heights

$42,511.00

19,449

86.2%

Xenia

$39,756.00

17,341

88.1%

All Sample Avg.

90.2%

Appalachia

85.5%

Sub Sample Avg.

84.5%

Ohio Average

88.5%

Zanesville has more than 20% of its adults without a high school diploma because of the fact that the city has a significantly larger portion of adults who have dropped out. The city has more than double the state and sample average and is still 5.5% larger than the sub sample. Zanesville’s high drop out rate leads to reduced educational attainment across the city and has a direct correlation to lower median income. This may not be the school’s fault. Zanesville is surrounded by poorer communities and counties so it may be attracting adults with limited education who view the city as an opportunity.

City

2013 Median

Pop 25 Years +

9th grade + (no

Income

degree)

Zanesville

$26,986.00

16,684

17.3%

Barberton

$37,819.00

18,269

12.2%

Sidney

$43,347.00

13,646

12.2%

Trotwood

$36,277.00

16,640

12.2%

Sandusky

$35,776.00

17,470

12.2%

Alliance

$31,152.00

14,011

12.0%

Chillicothe

$36,927.00

15,367

12.0%

Garfield Heights

$42,511.00

19,449

11.1%

Troy

$48,570.00

17,459

10.1%

Maple Heights

$36,664.00

15,612

9.4%

All Sample Drop Out Avg.

   

7.4%

Appalachia Drop Out Avg.

14.5%

Sub Set Drop Out Avg.

11.5%

Ohio Drop Out Avg.

8.3%

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Educational Attainment

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Zanesville city, Ohio 20.0% Sample Average 10.0% Ohio Average 0.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
Zanesville city, Ohio
20.0%
Sample Average
10.0%
Ohio Average
0.0%

Zanesville has the 2 nd lowest percentage of individuals with a Bachelors degree (7%)

and the 3 rd lowest percentage of adults with an advanced degree (4.1%) within the all sample category and trail throughout the sub set, Appalachia and Ohio average. However, the news is not all bad. Zanesville is on pace for the Appalachian, sub

sample and Ohio averages for some college/associates degree category.

Zanesville

is also home to a large number of institutions, such as law firms, universities and a hospital that place a premium on higher education. It should also be noted that it is possible that the city is a magnet for those with less education and that they migrate and cluster here. If this is true it leads to the same end result: people with education attainment and higher median wages leave to self-segregate themselves from those with less income.

Highest

Zanesville

Sub Sample

Appalachia

Ohio

educational attainment for 25 years old +

Avg.

Average

Less than high school graduate

20.3%

15.5%

14.5%

9.1%

High school grad

41.9%

40.3%

42.9%

32.6%

Some college/associat es

26.7%

29.0%

26.6%

30.9%

BA Degree or higher

11.1%

15.1%

16.0%

27.2%

21

The highest level of education metric is correlated with labor force participation and unemployment rates. One third of high school dropouts are unemployed in Zanesville whereas only 7% of college educated adults are unemployed.

 

Zanesville

Sub Smpl

Appalachi

Ohio

 

Avg.

a

Average

In Labor Force

54.2%

59.3%

62.9%

63.9%

Unemployment Rate

13.3%

13.8%

9.9%

10.0%

Unemployed:

33.5%

25.6%

No data

20.4%

Less than HS Grad

 

Unemployed:

8.5%

12.1%

No data

10.4%

HS Grad

 

Unemployed:

10.8%

10.7%

No data

8.4%

Some College/Associa tes

 

Unemployed BA/BS +

7.3%

6.1%

No data

3.6%

Based on this data one may assume that the labor force participation rates increase with educational attainment. This is driven by the market’s economic factors. If you don’t have a high school diploma or a GED it will be harder for you to find a job. It is also evident in stronger markets with higher median household incomes that a high school diploma does not necessarily increase the likelihood of obtaining gainful employment, only that they don’t drop out of the labor market as readily; this may be because there is enough median pay to incentivize them to seek out work long after a resident in Zanesville would resign themselves to defeat.

Home Values

In order for the City of Zanesville to collect more income tax dollars the city must attract more high income jobs and individuals to live within city limits. Individuals with high income levels and education generally locate in areas with good schools for their children (or to make it easier to sell their property if they don’t have kids). Though the amount of money that the city collects on property is relatively small it is a major source of funding for the schools. The low median income and the types of jobs available in Zanesville effects home valuations. The low home values in turn effects the amount of tax dollars that the school systems are able to be funded with and can use to introduce more education to our current and future workforce. Zanesville has the lowest percentage of home ownership in the comparable cities sub sample (45%) and the lowest median value of owner occupied homes.

22

Home Ownership in Sub Sample

Home Ownership % 67.5% 63.7% 63.3% 58.8% 56.5% 53.0% 51.9%
Home Ownership %
67.5%
63.7%
63.3%
58.8%
56.5%
53.0%
51.9%

45.0%

22 Home Ownership in Sub Sample Home Ownership % 67.5% 63.7% 63.3% 58.8% 56.5% 53.0% 51.9%
22 Home Ownership in Sub Sample Home Ownership % 67.5% 63.7% 63.3% 58.8% 56.5% 53.0% 51.9%
$140,000 $130,800 $120,000 $97,800 $98,400 $100,000 $81,200 $86,800 $85,000 $81,300 $76,200 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0
$140,000
$130,800
$120,000
$97,800
$98,400
$100,000
$81,200 $86,800
$85,000 $81,300 $76,200
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
22 Home Ownership in Sub Sample Home Ownership % 67.5% 63.7% 63.3% 58.8% 56.5% 53.0% 51.9%

Owner Occupied Homes Median Value

Part III:Employment Clusters

Industries in Muskingum County and Zanesville

Health care and education is the largest employment industry in Muskingum County. This should not be a surprise; Genesis Healthcare and Zandex are major employers (3,900 employees total in Zanesville) as are Zane State and Ohio University Zanesville (360 employees total in Zanesville). These industries typically pay good wages that are enough to sustain a family on. However, the next two highest

23

concentrations of industries, Retail Trade and Arts/Entertainment/Food Service pay much less 8 .

Employed by Industry - Muskingum County

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
23 concentrations of industries, Retail Trade and Arts/Entertainment/Food Service pay much less . Employed by Industryhttp://www.zmcport.com/ohio_distribution_center/competitive_advantages_musking um_county.html " id="pdf-obj-22-13" src="pdf-obj-22-13.jpg">

Though this information is for Muskingum County it was assumed that Zanesville, as the area’s largest city, is the economic driver. To determine if the cluster of Retail and Food Service played a role in Zanesville’s low median income and high rates of poverty I looked at the job openings for several days. The number and types of openings remained relatively unchanged. Retail openings made up 29% of the job openings, health care retailed fields were 29% and food preparation was 10% of the available jobs within the city limits of Zanesville.

8

24

Most Common Job Openings in Zanesville

Food Prep; 4% Customer Service; 5% Cashier; 5% Supervise Food Prep; 6% Medical Records; 7% LPN;
Food Prep; 4%
Customer Service; 5%
Cashier; 5%
Supervise Food Prep; 6%
Medical Records; 7%
LPN; 4%
Truck Driver; 23%
Registered Nurse; 18%
Supervise Retail; 14%
Retail Sales; 15%

9

These jobs were then compared to both how much education was needed to complete the job duties to see both how this affects pay and how well the market is meeting the educational levels present. Though there are 169 jobs open that do not require a high school diploma this does not meet the sheer number of adults that are over 25 years old and do not have a diploma. However, there are more jobs available for high school graduates (358) than there are for associates, trade, bachelors, masters and doctoral degrees combined (306).

9 OhioMeansJobs, job search for jobs (FT, PT and Temp) within Zanesville

25

Number of Jobs by Education Level

Job Openings

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

358 169 101 70 70 12 53
358
169
101
70
70
12
53
25 Number of Jobs by Education Level Job Openings 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

The low number jobs that required advanced education (as typical for a knowledge based economy) are shown in the distribution of pay ranges of open positions in Zanesville.

Job Openings by Yearly Wage

58 50 251 244 230
58
50
251
244
230
  • Less than $30,000

  • $30 - $49,000

  • $50 - $79,000

  • $80 - $99,000

  • $100,000 +

Not all of the 833 jobs available on OhioMeansJobs were analyzed. A few of them are repeated postings so the true number of jobs is actually lower. Instead, a sampling was done of full time jobs by pay and education. The number of individuals with the education levels to meet the minimum requirements and the number of individuals within that category that are unemployed were analyzed.

26

  • 1. The number of jobs paying $100,000 were typically in the medical field as

pharmacists, nursing home managers, physicians, etc. Genesis Hospital System was the most common employer in this range. There were also a number of

postings for owner-operated CDL truckers which were the only position in this category to not require an advanced degree. There was a greater emphasis on education and less on experience at this level.

There were 58 jobs available at this pay range. Zanesville has 684 people with a Masters Degree or higher. There is no data for unemployment rates for individuals with degrees beyond the Bachelorette level.

  • 2. Jobs that pay between $80 - $99,000 a year had some of the well-known

manufacturing establishments such as AK Steel, Owens Illinois and large household names like Kelloggs and Nestle Purina in addition to Genesis and other health care organizations. Some of the jobs were willing to substitute significant experience levels for a college degree but most expressed a desire for the degree in addition to a number of years of experience. Many of these jobs required the supervision of subordinate workers.

There were 50 jobs available at this pay range. Zanesville has 1,168 people with a Bachelors Degree. The unemployment rate for individuals with a Bachelors Degree is 7.3% in Zanesville or about 85 people.

  • 3. The upper middle income jobs ($50 - $79,000/year) were mainly concentrated in

sales, nurses and non-owner operated CDL truck drivers. Many of these jobs also

had a requirement for continuing education such as a bachelors degree. Other jobs were skilled laborers with several years of experience such as journeymen millwrights and journeymen electricians or diesel mechanics.

There were 244 jobs available at this pay range. Zanesville has 1,168 people with a Bachelors Degree who could possibly apply based on education. The unemployment rate for individuals with a Bachelors Degree is 7.3% in Zanesville or about 85 people. There are more jobs than candidates who meet the educational requirements.

  • 4. The middle income openings ($30 - $49,000/year) started to include a

requirement for a high school diploma with a general preference or requirement for education beyond high school with either an Associates Degree, certification, licensure or a significant amount of experience. Companies such as VDS, Speedway, Advanced Auto Parts and health care companies were looking for LPNs, customer service positions, medical coders, mechanics and retail or restaurant managers. Manufacturers such as AK Steel and Owens Illinois also had openings at their plants.

27

There were 230 jobs available at this pay range. Zanesville has 4,454 people that could qualify based on only education for these openings. 1,251 people have an Associates Degree and 3,203 have some college. The unemployment rate for individuals with some college or an Associates Degree is 10.8% in Zanesville or 481 citizens. There are more unemployed individuals at this level than job openings for individuals with an Associates/some college. The unemployment rate for individuals with a high school degree is 8.5% or about 594 people, again exceeding the job market demand.

  • 5. The entry level jobs all paid below $30,000. This category had the largest

amount of openings. Many of the jobs were in retail or fast food although there were occasional positions at major employers such as Genesis Healthcare. Job titles included retail sales, cooks, cashiers, drivers, security officers and bank tellers. Many of the jobs were part time. Most of these jobs had a preference for a high school degree although there were a few that did not make it a requirement of the position.

There were 251 jobs available in this pay range. Zanesville has 6,990 people with a high school diploma. There are also 500 people who are over 25 years old who have less than a 9 th grade education and 2,886 people who have above a 9 th grade education but did not get a GED or diploma. The unemployment rate for individuals with a high school diploma/GED is 8.5% (594 people) and the unemployment rate for individuals without a high school diploma/GED is 33.5% or about 3,308 people, far exceeding market demand.

Job Openings by Education Level

Number Unemployed

3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Bachelor Assoc/Some College High School < High School
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Bachelor
Assoc/Some College High School
< High School

28

The data clearly shows that there is a challenge in finding jobs for residents of Zanesville in all educational attainment levels except for Bachelor Degree holders (data is not available for individuals with a Masters, Juris Doctorate, PhD or Doctorate). This is not to say that just because someone has a Bachelors Degree or higher that they are guaranteed a job in Zanesville. Some degrees, such as a medical related degree, are in much higher demand than a liberal arts degree. The reader should also not assume that just because the unemployment rate for individuals without a high school diploma is extraordinarily high that they are not earning an income. Crime statistics in Zanesville would suggest that a number of these individuals are involved in black market activities and not a typical 9-5 job. Lastly, it should be stated that the unemployment rate may be higher than reported. There may be people who would like a full time job but settled for part time work, became discouraged from looking for full time employment or are still suffering the effects of the recession. This also directly effects the amount of payroll taxes the city is able to collect.

Ohio Average Earnings by Education Level

Grad/Professional $63,292 BA $48,549 Some College/Assoc $32,330 HS Grad $27,427 < High School $18,797
Grad/Professional
$63,292
BA
$48,549
Some College/Assoc
$32,330
HS Grad
$27,427
< High School
$18,797

$0

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

For every employed individual who works in Zanesville at the Ohio average for that level of education the City of Zanesville collects the following levels of income tax.

Educational

Avg. Ohio Yearly

City 1.9% Income

% of Labor Force

Attainment

Wage

Tax

< High School

$18,797

$357.14

20.3%

HS Grad

$27,427

$521.11

41.9%

Some College/Assoc

$32,330

$614.27

26.7%

BA

$48,549

$922.43

7.0%

Grad/Professional

$63,292

$1,202.55

4.1%

The value of education, beyond the income tax collections, can also help improve the city’s unemployment and labor force participation issues. Below is the US average unemployment by educational level:

29

Avg. US Unemployment by Education

5% 5% 26% 8% 9% 13% 18% 16%
5%
5%
26%
8%
9%
13%
18%
16%
  • < High School

  • High School

  • Certificate/ Some College

  • Associates

  • Bachelor

  • Master

  • Professional

  • Doctorate

The rates of unemployment and the educational attainment of our residents helps determine what kind of industries the City of Zanesville can expect to support, attract and retain. Zanesville is attracting a high number of trucking/warehousing positions, food preparation and arts and entertainment jobs when compared to the sub set cities. We are behind in production jobs (manufacturing), management and office support positions. The median wage is for all of America and is not localized.

Industry

Zanesvil

Amt

Bottom

Median

Industr

Job Title

Type

le

.

10%

Wage(5

y

Example

More/Le

Wage

0%)

ss?

Material

More

+22

$8.71/hr

$14.20/h

Truckin

Truck

Moving

2

$18,120

r

g/

Driver/Packager

 

/yr

$29,530/

Warehs

30

 

yr

e.

Food

More

+10

$7.97/hr

$9.20/hr

Fast

Waiter/Cook/Fast

Preparatio

2

$16,580

$19,130/

Food/Re

Food Supervisor

n

/yr

yr

st

Arts &

More

+70

$9.71/hr

$21.72/h

News/T

Fine Artists/

Entertain

$20,200

r

V/

Photography

ment

/yr

$45,180/

Radio

 

yr

Managem

Less

-200

$22.33/

$46.75/h

General

Manager/Administr

ent

hr

r

ator

$46,440

$97,230/

/yr

yr

Office

Less

-289

$9.37/hr

$15.64/h

Banks/

Clerk/Secretary/

Admin. &

$19,480

r

Hospital

Assistant

Support

/yr

$32,520/

s

 

yr

Productio

Less

-337

$9.22/hr

$15.25/h

Manufa

Assembler/Operato

n

$19,180

r

ct.

r/

/yr

$31,720/

Technician

 

yr

The median wages in the areas where Zanesville outpaces the sub set cities are lower than where it is behind. Let’s see what the income tax collections would be for an individual in these markets at the U.S. median wage level.

Industry

Median Wage

1.9% Income Tax

Tax Revenue Amt. if at

 

Subset Avg

Material Moving

$29,530/year

$561.07

$124,542

Food Preparation

$19,130/year

$363.47

$37,073

Arts & Entertainment

$45,180/year

$858.42

$60,089

Management

$97,230/year

$,1847.37

$369,400

Office Admin & Support

$32,520/year

$617.88

$178,567

Production

$31,720/year

$602.68

$203,103

31

Zanesville Across All Industry Types

 

Sub Set

Zanesvi

 

Avg

lle

Employe

Employ

Varianc

Industry

d

ed

e

Aged 16 +

9,983

9,195

-788

Management

663

463

-200

Business/Financial

     

Ops

216

223

7

Computer/Math

114

159

46

Architect/Engineering

137

111

-26

Life Science

44

21

-23

Community/Social

     

Services

183

160

-23

Legal

62

102

40

Education

415

344

-71

Arts/Entertainment

94

164

70

Health Care (TTL)

929

959

31

Protective Service

218

49

-169

Food Prep

863

965

102

Bldg/Grounds

458

451

-7

Personal Care

311

372

61

Sales

1,089

1,064

-25

Office Admin

1,474

1,185

-289

Agriculture

6

60

54

Construction/Extractio

     

n

461

428

-33

Install/Maintain/Repair

375

231

-144

Production

1,047

710

-337

Transportation

462

417

-45

Material Moving

336

557

222

Two-thirds of the areas where Zanesville has the most job growth, material moving and food preparation are areas with very limited wealth generation potential as shown in the median wage analysis. However there are areas where individuals with low educational levels can still earn a decent wage. The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services tracks job growth and predicts the need for a variety of

32

careers throughout the state 10 . The following table highlights some areas Zanesville could capitalize on in the current market by educational level.

Educational

Title

OH

2013 OH

Yearly

Income

Level

Average

Median

Tax

Yearly

Wage/Hour

Rate

Openings

Collecti

on

< High

Construction

1,205

$17.56

$36,524.8

$693.97

School

Labor

0

High School

Machinists

937

$18.22

$37,897.6

$720.05

 

0

 

Supervise

1,413

$22.62

$47,049.6

$893.94

Office / Admin Asst.

0

HS w/ Job

Manufacturin

1,386

$24.59

$51,147.2

$971.79

Training

g Sales Reps

0

 

Bookkeeping /

1,100

$16.89

$35,131.2

$667.49

Accounting

0

Clerks

Non-degree

LPN

1,886

$19.29

$40,123.2

$762.34

Programs

0

 

Truck Driver

1,684

$18.14

$37,731.2

$716.89

 

0

Some College

Computer

629

$20.29

$42,203.2

$801.86

w/ Job

User Support

0

Training

Specialists

Zanesville already has the educational infrastructure in place to take advantage of many of these high growth job classifications.

Zane State

There is a 1 year program in Accounting/Bookkeeping at Zane State for high school

graduates who want only a little extra education to move up the economic ladder.

Zane State also offers a 1 year academic plan for general office specialist and a 2

year associates program for administrative office assistant.

Lastly, for individuals

with some college education that want to transform to a computer user support specialist there is the option of a technical services major. There is also a one year

10 2012 – 2022 Snapshot of Occupational Projections

33

program for retail sales that could use many of the same fundamentals for a manufacturing sales representative.

Mid-East Career and Technical and Ohio University Zanesville

For individuals with less than a high school education who would like to pursue a career as a construction laborer there is a 10 hour OSHA training for construction and general industry at Mid-East Career and Tech. There is also a 6 month Class A Commercial Driver’s License program. For individuals who want to become a Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN) Mid-East Career and Tech offers the option of attending a yearlong program. If an individual wants to go farther up in their career and transform from an LPN to an RN for more earning potential the Ohio University Zanesville campus has an advanced placement program for individuals with an LPN licensure.

Zanesville Primary and Secondary Education

The Zanesville Board of Education system has a strong set of leaders who realize the important purpose that they have in the development of the community at large and the next generation of Zanesville’s workforce. A recent meeting with some of the key personnel proves that they are aware of the unique opportunities and challenges that are confronted by the workforce and are developing programs to address them. For example:

The school district would like to develop a list of businesses that are

interested in creating internships and job shadowing opportunities. The district is also attempting to develop a teachers program where they look

at the types of jobs that are available regionally and then teach their students that there are other options besides attending college. The Superintendent discussed a pilot program that he used with great success in another county with an engineering co-op to get students to gain real world experience and allow employers to actively recruit individuals with the skills they need to remain competitive.

The school system is also taking a role in the education of adults. They have developed a curriculum for adults without a degree to pursue a High School Diploma. They are also addressing adult literacy rates in a non-threatening, private atmosphere. These are all important steps that can be taken to help address some of the issues identified in this report and also shows a sign of a great partnership.

34

Age Distribution in Zanesville

Given Zanesville’s top tapestry segmentation of small town simplicity, a majority of which are 55 years and older, you would think that the city would skew towards a greater concentration of the elderly. In fact, Zanesville’s largest percentage of adults is within the 20 – 29 age grouping. This is also a good time for most individuals to go back to school because it’s not too late to get a good return on the cost of education as there are many more productive years of working ahead. In fact, Zanesville has on average a much younger population than its peer cities in the subset which tend to be older.

35

Age Distribution in Zanesville

16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15- 19 20 - 29 30 -
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
15- 19
20 - 29
30 - 39
40 - 49
50 - 59
60 - 69
70 +

Percentage of Working Age Ranges Within City

Zanesville Sub Set Avg. 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%200.0% 200.0% 200.0% 200.0% 200.0% 200.0%300.0% 300.0%
Zanesville
Sub Set Avg.
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%200.0%
200.0%
200.0%
200.0%
200.0%
200.0%300.0%
300.0%
300.0%
300.0%
300.0%
300.0%400.0%
400.0%
400.0%
400.0%
400.0%
400.0%500.0%
500.0%
500.0%
500.0%
500.0%
500.0%600.0%
600.0%
600.0%
600.0%
600.0%
600.0%700.0%
700.0%
700.0%
700.0%
700.0%
700.0%800.0%
800.0%
800.0%
800.0%
800.0%
800.0%
8.3%
7.6%
6.9%
6.8%
6.8%
6.9%
6.5%
6.4%
6.0%
5.9%
5.9%
5.8%
5.5%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
25 - 29
30 - 34
35- 39
40 - 44
45-49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64

Conclusion

Zanesville is behind its peer groups in nearly every category regardless if you were to compare the city to the State of Ohio as a whole, Appalachian Ohio, cities of similar size or cities with similar population and poverty levels. Our job market both drives low educational attainment and pays little dragging down our median wage and the city’s ability to maximize income tax to provide expanded services. The job

36

classifications where Zanesville is ahead of its peers are areas that don’t provide enough, on average, to make a dent in our persistent poverty levels or create wealth.

However, all is not hopeless. We are not the first or the last community to confront these types of challenges. A 1% change in the top tapestry from Hardscrabble Road

to Salt of the Earth is not only possible but an achievable goal with the help of the community. Zanesville must be able to compete and to do so the community must acknowledge the issue and come together to develop a solution to these problems

(though suggestions will be included in future papers).

The data points out that the

completion or attainment of a high school diploma or GED results in lower unemployment rates, an increase in the number of adults participating in the workforce the median income of Zanesville would increase in tandem. As shown in the purchasing power section even increasing the median income by only $1,000 results in a large deposit in the city’s general fund. By changing just 1% of Zanesville’s tapestry segment from Hardscrabble Road to Salt of the Earth everyone in Zanesville from the residents to the city budget will have extra money to play with.

This paper is designed to not only inform leaders but also allow them to set realistic goals. For example, Zanesville could have the following goals:

By the year 2020 Zanesville’s median income will surpass Alliance’s median

income adjusted from 2013 dollars. This not only increases the standard of living for our residents but also results in approximately $643,500 in additional income tax collections. Zanesville recognizes that it is at the state average for the number of

individuals who possess either some college or an Associate degree. The city will work with its economic development partners, such as the Chamber of Commerce and the Port Authority, to attract jobs that fit this educational demographic to increase the standard of living for our residents and encourage a more educated workforce. Zanesville will identify a high growth industry that requires only some college or an Associate degree with business spin off potential and aggressively pursue a strategy to attract this industry. We will also partner with the education system to ensure that the workforce is being adequately trained for these positions.

There is enough data in this report for anyone to make some strong conclusions and set realistic goals for where we want to be as a city in the future. Additional papers will discuss ideas, strategies and programs that will allow Zanesville to be able to compete on a larger scale and improve the quality of life for its residents but first it must recognize that there are workforce challenges ahead.

37

Appendixes