BUSINESS

ENVIRONMENT

Bankruptcy of
lehman Brothers
A Pointer of Subprime Crisis

Pankaj Madhani

not qualify for normal market interest rate loans due to various risk factors, such as income
Thelevel,
termsize
subprime
refers to the
practice
making and
loansemployment
available to borrowers
who do
of the lending
down payment
made,
creditof history
status. Subprime
mortgages are defined as housing loans which do not conform to the criteria for prime mortgages,
and also have a lower probability of the full repayment of mortgages. Subprime mortgage .loans
are made to home loan borrowers who have higher credit risks compared to prime mortgages,
because of irregular payment in the past, higher amount of debt compared to income level and
such other factors. According to Federal banking and thrift regulatory agencies, sub prime
mortgages are those made to borrowers who display among other characteristics, (i) a previous
record of delinquency, foreclosure or bankruptcy, (ii) a low credit score, and/or (iii) a ratio of debt
service to an income of 50% or greater (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, et aI, 2007).1
Subprime mortgages were mainly responsible for an increased demand in housing and home
ownership rates in the US. The overall US home ownership rate increased from 64% to 70%
. between 1994 and 2004. This surging demand helped fuel housing price hike and consumer
spending. Between 1997 and 2006, American home prices increased by 124%. This is, partly, due
to the encouragement from the Federal government for the consumption economy after the
September 2001 disaster to boost domestic economy based on consumer spending.
During the period of the housing property bubble in the US, when property price was having a
continuous northward journey, many homeowners used the increased property value to refinance their
houses with lower interest rates available in the market. Such second mortgages against the increased
value of home ownership were used for personal consumer spending. In 2007, the US household debt
was 130% (as a percentage of income), which was considerably higher compared to 100% recorded _
www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press!bcreg/2006/20060929/defalilt.htm

2009 The Icfai University Press. All Rights Reserved.

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1507652

Bankruptcy of lehman Brothers: A Pointer of Subprime Crisis

in the last decade. The US subprime crisis began after the

housing bubble burst, which ultimately resulted in high
default rates on higher risk borrowers, such as subprime
and other Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM). Sub prime
borrowers were influenced by mortgage loan incentives
and the trend of rising home prices to assume large
mortgage loans, considering that they would be able to
refinance existing mortgage loans with more favorable
terms later on. Once, the housing bubble burst and prices started dropping sharply, home loan
refinancing became more and more difficult. Defaults and foreclosure activity increased steeply
as ARM interest rates reset higher, making it even more difficult for borrowers to repay.
Origin of Subprime Crisis
Many factors related to housing and credit markets emerged over a number of years, which were
responsible for sub prime crisis. The major causes of subprime crisis include: the inability of the
homeowners to make their mortgage repayments; poor judgment by borrowers as well as lenders,
while dealing with property loans; excessive speculation in property prices, during the strong
period of economy; high-level of personal and corporate debt; lack of proper government control
and regulation and innovation of structured financial products that concealed the risk of mortgage
default for subprime clients. Subprime mortgages, which amounted to $35 bn (5% of total
originations) in 1994, had increased phenomenally to $600 bn (20%) in 2006.2
According to a research study conducted by Federal Reserve of US, between 2001 and 2007,
the average difference between subprime and prime mortgage interest rates decreased drastically
from 280 to 130 basis points. It means that the risk premium considered by lenders or loan issuers
to offer a subprime loan to clients, declined. Surprisingly, this had happened even though the
credit ratings of subprime borrowers declined during this time period. Mortgage underwriting
practices, such as automated loan approvals, have also been responsible for subprime crisis, as
such approvals were not subjected to appropriate review and documentation. In 2007, 40% of all
sub prime loans resulted from automated underwriting.3
Basics of the Securitization Process
Subprime mortgages are mainly securitized in the form of Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS). In
the traditional process of mortgage, the bank originates a loan to the home loan borrowers, while
the credit default risk remains with the issuing bank. With the initiation of securitization, the
traditional process has changed from the originating to the distributing process. Here, the credit
default risk is shifted or distributed to investors through MBS and Collateralized Debt Obligations
(CDOs). Securitization is a type of structured finance and involves the pooling of financial assets,
particularly assets for which readymade secondary market does not exist.
Securitization turns mortgage loans into financial securities by taking existing loans or assets
backed by their future cash flows. Securities are sold in the market, after separating them into
tranches. The main advantage of securitization is that the lender or the originator of the loan gets
a lump sum amount, rather than the interest and principal payments over the loan's term and
period. In this way, it provides lenders an additional cushion and flexibility to relend the capital
for new projects. Hence, it provides the capital to investors at the lowest cost, increases liquidity
for lenders and helps lenders and investors better manage their financial risk.
The securitization process provides a secondary market for mortgage transactions. Hence, the
issuers of mortgages were no longer compelled to hold them to maturity. Pooled assets created by
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080314a.htm
www.nytimes.com/2007 /03/23/business/23speed.html? _r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc= rss&oref=slogin
The Accounting

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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1507652

BUSINESS

ENVIRONMENT

securitization, act as collateral for new financial assets issued by financial institutions or those
owning such underlying assets. In this way, mortgages with a high risk of default could be
derived effectively through MBS and COOs, by shifting inherent risks from the mortgage issuer to
the investors.
Lehman Brothers Debacle

One of the major causes of the Lehman Brothers' (the fourth largest securities company in the US)
default was its exposure to the subprime market. In recent years, many home mortgages issued in
US were made to subprime borrowers. Compared to prime borrowers, subprime borrowers are
having lesser ability to repay the loan, based on various criteria. During 2006-07, housing prices
began to drop in the US, causing mortgage delinquencies to soar and huge losses to financial firms
as they hold financial securities backed with subprime mortgages. This resulted in a large decline
in the capital of many banks and government-backed enterprises of the US.
Lehman Brothers was a key player in the MBS market. A single MBS might consist of a number
of mortgage loans clustered together and enclosed in a set of mortgage securities, which can be
bought and sold in the secondary market for securities. Although, the subprime MBS market was
having a high proportion of inherent risks, it looked much more attractive as the MBS market was
growing at an exponential rate with a market size in trillions, having doubled between 2001 and
2003. Many banks and financial institutes turned to such riskier investments as they promised
greater returns during the period of relatively slow economic growth. The massive size of the
MBS market also tempted many finance and securities firms to it. As residential property prices
soared, home owners and mortgage borrowers used their homes as collateral for increasing
indebtedness and that enhanced debt also provided the starting point for a stockmarket bubble.
Lehman Brothers had a huge exposure to property derivatives, such as MBS and COOs. These
mortgage derivatives were attached to underlying assets, such as value of homes and mortgages.
However, with the beginning of property price crash, the value of Lehman Brothers' investment
started to decline sharply. Lehman Brothers also had a large chunk of leveraged assets and was
exposed to a significant portion of subprime MBS. As Lehman Brothers was exposed to huge
amounts of bad debt, it suffered a severe credit crunch. Lehman Brothers collapsed, as it failed to
raise enough capital to secure its debts and filed Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code
on September 15, 2008, causing panic in the entire global financial market.
Lehman Brothers' working model of securitization involved obtaining loans from other banks
and then selling them off as MBS in the secondary market. In this process, the bank would pay the
monthly interest it earned out of that loan to Lehman Brothers. Finally, Lehman Brothers would
pay the investors who bought the MBS. Here, the main risk was that, if the loans were unpaid and
defaulted, the bank was not obliged to pay Lehman Brothers, even though Lehman Brothers was
required to pay the customers who bought the MBS. Hence, when the mortgage loan customers
started defaulting on loan payment! banks stopped paying Lehman Brothers. These were the
reasons behind the downfall of Lehman Brothers. After the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers,
the liquidity crisis deepened further, having an immediate impact on the American International
Group (AIG), the biggest US life insurer. To ease the liquidity crisis, AIG received emergency loans
from the US Federal Reserve on September 17, 2008 , and was effectively bailed out and placed
under government supervision.
The Indian Securitization

Market

Though the securitization market in India is of recent origin, it looks promising. The Indian
structured finance market registered a growth rate of 44%, Rs. 370 bn in the year 2007. Out of this,
65% of the securitized assets were originated by banks and the remaining 35% by non-banking
June

2009

Bankruptcy of lehman Brothers: A Pointer of Subprime Crisis

financial companies. The following table provides the growth path of the Indian securitization
market:
'"
Table: Growth of 36.8
the Indian Securitization
Market
04.0
12.9
0.8
FY02
19.1

29.6
77.7
369.5
139.2
33.4
256.5
308.2
36.4
24.3
234.2
016
0.5
00.4
28.3
FY04
FY03
FY07
119.2
80.9
16.1
14.8
021.0
6.8
222.9
10
25.8
50.1
178.5
1.9
FY06
FY05

Subprime Crisis: Impact of Credit Monitoring System

Subprime crisis is the commonest word in financial circles worldwide in the recent past and has
had the lasting impact on the world's leading financial institutions, brokerage firms, investors,
as well as the overall global economy. The innovative financial products, such as mortgage
derivatives that ultimately led to the sub prime crisis, were produced by global financial firms.
An environment of irrational euphoria regarding property boom was responsible for the subprime
crisis, which ultimately resulted in the financial and stock market meltdown. The US markets
witnessed a prolonged period of low interest rates, beginning from the year 2001, which
encouraged housing loan borrowing and escalated housing prices. As the loan issuers and
mortgage lenders provided lenient and uncontrolied lending, coupled with innovative loan
mortgage products which provided more convenient repayment options at the start of the
mortgage for attracting home loan customers, housing boom started assuming a bubble like
proportion. These favorable home loan market situations encouraged borrowers to buy far more
expensive homes, even if their financial situation did not warrant or support such hefty borrowing
and subsequent mortgage installments.
Banks and major financial institutions refinanced these loans of home mortgages by
repackaging them into different types of financial products and selling them to financial
institutions and other investors in the secondary market for securitization. However, the situation
changed noticeably after a series of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Such policies of
the US Central Bank led to an increase in the interest rates of floating housing loans and the
subsequent rising defaults by home loan borrowers. As a consequence of sub prime crisis, many
major banks and financial institutes reported subprime related losses running into billions of
dollars. The ripple effects of sub prime crisis were felt, not only in the US financial markets but
also across the global financial market. The deteriorating situation was further compounded by
the failure of the financial markets to recognize the fast changing mortgage scenario and suitably
modify their lending and risk management practices. The credit and default risk inherent in the
new mortgage structures was not fully recognized. Hence, such risks were not fully factored in
the overall credit ratings of the repackaged financial offerings such as MBS.
Basically, there is a prevailing need to streamline and strengthen the credit rating system for
a thorough assessment of the home loan borrower's creditworthiness. Any lapse at this stage is
likely to cause a series of unwarranted consequences in the future, no matter how rigorous the
subsequent monitoring processes are. The central regulatory agencies will have to check that
banks and financial institutions do not follow lenient, imprudent and predatory lending practices.
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It is imperative that banks and financial institutions share the credit history of home loan
borrowers to better assess their creditworthiness. One such step in this direction could be to
encourage and support usage of the services of the Credit Informatipn Bureau (CIB). For all banks
and financial institutions, institutional membership as well as the sharing of credit information
with CIB, should be made obligatory. This will help in sharing all the relevant information
pertaining to individual borrowers among all the lending banks and financial institutions.
A major drawback in the credit rating mechanism has been that the credit rating processes
largely rely on past performance records. For MBS, such historical records has been very
impressive. However, such credit rating processes or models do not take into account, newer or
imminent macro risks. Even the risks arising from newer mortgage structures, such as negative
amortization mortgage or ARM, which is more prone to loan repayment default, are not
considered.
Credit rating models used by the originators of the mortgage loans and rating agencies must
be able to comprehend potential risks in such financial innovations and should make sure that
such impending risks are adequately accounted in their rating processes, so far as new risk is
concerned. It must also ensure constant credit monitoring, so
that the fast changing environment of the global economy is
reflected and accounted in the credit rating processes. Credit
rating agencies should learn lessons from subprime related
For all banks and financial
crisis, to modify their rating methodologies and models, to
institutions, institutional
incorporate certain predictive elements, and to build greater
membership as well as the
rigor in their rating mechanism. Immediate action by credit
rating agencies in identifying toxic MBS will help in boosting
sharing of credit information
investors' confidence in the efficiency and effectiveness of the
with CIB, should be made
entire credit rating system.
Implications

of the Subprime Crisis for India

obligatory

The subprime mortgage crisis has adversely impacted the US

economic growth and global market. There is a genuine
concern that India's growth rate will also be greatly affected. In the current scenario' of financial
turbulence, accompanied by global credit crunch and a major slowdown in the US and the
European economy, it is very important to understand the overall impact of all these factors on
India's growth prospects. Hence, it is necessary to put this whole crisis in the Indian perspective,
analyze the chain of cascading events responsible for this turmoil, and frame an action plan to
avoid or reduce the possibility of such occurrences in the future.
There are two main channels, viz., financial and delivery or trade channels, through which,
a global credit crunch and a recession in the US and Europe can affect India. In the financial
channel, a decline in the capital inflow from abroad and lower access of the Indian corporate to
credit in international markets will affect India. In the delivery or trade channel, a slowdown
in the exports of goods and services from India to the US and European countries might impact
India. Impact through delivery or trade channel appears to be small as Indian exports are welldiversified. However, the financial channel impacts are likely to be more significant through a
cutback in capital inflows. The expected impact of a global credit crunch and slowdown in the
US and European economy on India through these channels is likely to be negative for the near
future. Nevertheless, the sub prime-related events, which have unfolded in the recent months
in US and Europe, offer valuable lessons for an emerging country like India. For India, the
following are the key factors responsible for insulating it from the direct impact of subprimerelated global crisis.
June

2009

II

Bankruptcy of lehman Brothers: A Pointer of Subprime Crisis

Sound Banking Practices

Lack of stringent credit monitoring practices was the main cause for subprime mortgage crisis in
the US. Hence, besides relying on credit ratings, banks and financial institutions will also playa
key role in avoiding any credit shocks by carrying out proper due diligence of underlying securities
and home loan borrowers.
Banks and financial institutions need to further strengthen their risk monitoring and
management systems in order to effectively tackle the ever-rising complexities of financial products
and services. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are taking a series of proactive measures to avoid or
curb a subprime crisis in India.
The RBI has directed banks and financial institutions to set up independent credit counseling
centers that will alarm borrowers, if they are raising mortgage and personal loans beyond their
means. This is necessary when borrowers are bombarded with numerous credit cards and
personal loan offers. The main reason for sub prime crisis in US was disbursement of mortgage
loans to those people who could not afford mortgage repayment. It is envisaged that such major
financial crisis could have been controlled if loan borrowers were more aware of their total
liabilities. According to an RBI directive, such credit counseling centers should provide free advice
and should not indulge in selling the financial products while providing investment advice. RBI
has asked banks to set up credit counseling centers, either individually or collectively.
Controlled Derivatives Market
Derivatives for mortgage products are innovative financial securities, which can spread the
default risk attached to housing mortgage loans. However, the imprudent application of such
derivatives products can lead to excessive leverage, as it happened in the sub prime crisis of the
US. Any failure in derivatives transactions leads to such a chain of events that, it becomes nearly
impossible to quantify the risk of exposure to bad mortgage loans. The RBI and Government of
India (GOI) should prohibit excessive use of such derivatives products.
Limited Investment by Indian Companies Abroad
Although the Indian capital and financial markets are experiencing the domino effect of global
financial meltdown, the Indian banking system has remained fairly detached from any direct or
immediate impact of the US subprime crisis. This is due to the limited exposure or non-exposure
of the Indian banks to subprime loans in the US. Yet, there was a major impact of subprime crisis
on the Indian equity markets as many Foreign Institutional Investors (FIls) sold off their securities
and investments to Indian firms, to partially balance their huge subprime mortgage losses in the
foreign market. The FIls have and, as of date, continue to withdraw themselves from the equity
markets of emerging countries such as India in order to cope up with subprime-related losses in
the US market. In the period of global financial crisis, for long-term growth and sustainability, a
well-planned strategy for investment in foreign market is required.
Excessive investment in the overseas derivatives market by banks and financial institutions
is to be regulated. As a spillover effect of subprime crisis, BNP Paribas of France and Macquarie
Bank of Australia have been severely affected because of their exposure to such overseas
investments in derivative prqducts. The exposure of Indian banks to the subprime crisis of US is
very limited. However, the exposure of ICICI bank to overseas derivative market, although minimal,
has greatly impacted its enterprise value. The ICICI bank has faced a net loss of Rs. 375 cr in the
current banking crisis.
As the subprime crisis intensified globally, counterparty risk aversion has become rigorous
and has encouraged banks and financial institutions to carry significant amount of liquid assets
as precautionary measures. This has resulted in banks restricting lending and exposures to
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corporate and an increase in the outflow of foreign funds from the capital market. These adverse
global developments will drastically slowdown capital inflows into India. For the year 2008-09,
it is estimated to be between $40 and $50 bn. The recent downward trend in the Indian and global
capital markets, also a reflection of increased global risk aversion and reduction in market liquidity,
will have a negative impact on global investment and consumption patterns.
Indian firms were active in the foreign debt markets for financing overseas expenditures
denominated in foreign currency, mergers and acquisitions. Hence, the Indian corporate houses
are facing mounting difficulty in raising foreign loans as liquidity crisis faced by the foreign
banks and their loss of risk appetite are the key hindrances in any such moves. Pricing for foreign
borrowing by even blue chip Indian borrowers (e.g., Tata Motors, Reliance, etc.), has increased
significantly since the beginning of January 2008.
Central banks, across various countries including India, made a quick decision to cut interest
rates along with the declaration of economic stimulus packages by respective governments. All
these collective steps were taken to control risks to broader economy, created by subprime crisis
and subsequent financial meltdown. It is envisaged that these measures will stimulate economic
growth and rebuild confidence in the financial and capital markets. The effects of subprime crisis
and subsequent financial turmoil on the global stock markets have been severe. Between January
1, 2008 and October 11, 2008, the market capitalization of the US stock market had suffered $8 tn
in losses, as their value declined from $20 tn to $12 tn. Losses in other nine countries have averaged
about 40%4.
The major turbulence in the global capital and financial markets and subsequent lower risk
appetite of financial institutions and FII, will impact India's ability to finance its capital intensive
infrastructure projects. As credit growth has not responded positively to liquidity strengthening
measures by central banks across the globe, it is envisaged that the supply of long-term funds for
financing infrastructure projects worldwide will remain restricted for the next 12 to 24 months.
There is a pressing need for the development of long-term debt market, locally.
A sub prime-like crisis in India seems unlikely, given the current state of regulatory affairs. In
recent years, the home loan mortgage market has grown rapidly in India. However, the Indian
credit growth is far behind the levels of credit growth seen in Western countries. Mortgage loans,
as a percentage of GDP in India, are still at a smaller percentage as compared to the US and the UK.
The approach of the Indian regulators regarding financial markets has been cautious, balanced
and forward-looking. The RBI's policy of strict watch on market liquidity, in order to ensure that
the money supply (and hence inflation) is kept within manageable limits, is helping to avoid any
such full blown financial crisis like subprime crisis.
Conclusion

The aftershocks from subprime crisis caused widespread panic in the global financial and capital
markets and encouraged investors to abandon risky mortgage bonds and volatile equities. The
subprirne crisis is likely to have long-lasting economic impacts on the world market. Continuously
declining home prices in the US have adversely affected household wealth and consumption
patterns. The immediate impact of subprime crisis on global banking industry, involves
fundamental changes in banking business models, eliminating volume and income, with net
effect of large percentage reduction in the available credit. The subprime crisis has altered investor
and lender risk preferences in a big way. Structured financial products are being avoided by
investors and financial institutions, as they prefer holding in favor of cash or cash equivalent
securities.l4\
Reference # 09M-2009-06-06-01

Wall Street Journal,

June

2009

October 11, 2008, p.l.