Liberals, Conservatives top choices as NDP

accessible vote drops: Nanos tracking

Nan
os National Ballot tracking released Oct. 6, 2015

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

The latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail
shows the Liberals and the Conservatives are the top choices for Canadians, while the
proportion of Canadians who would consider voting for the NDP has dropped nine
points over the past month.
Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, please rank your top two
current local voting preferences?"
The latest numbers released on Oct. 6 show:

 The Liberals are at 35.0 per cent support nationally

The Conservatives are at 31.5 per cent support
The NDP is at 23.1 per cent support
The Green Party is at 4.6 per cent support
The margin of error among the 1,072 decided voters is considered 3.0 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20.
Advance polls open on Friday and run through the long weekend.

Accessible vote
The NDP's proportion of accessible voters, or the proportion of Canadians that would
consider voting for the party, has dropped by nine percentage points over the last
month.

Voters were asked a series of questions about whether they would consider or not
consider voting for each of the federal parties, to determine each party's proportion of
accessible voters.
That polling found:
50.7 per cent would consider voting for the Liberals
40.9 per cent would consider voting for the NDP
40.5 per cent would consider voting for the Conservatives
23.5 per cent would consider voting Green
The NDP's proportion of accessible voters was 50.2 per cent a month ago, but that
number has since dipped into a statistical tie with the Conservatives. The Liberals
were at 46.5 per cent support a month ago, while the Conservatives have stayed close
to the 38.9 per cent support they had last month.
Poll methodology
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by
Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new
group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a
three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new
day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a
survey of 1,072 respondents is 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Harper, Trudeau tied as preferred PM
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau are tied on
the preferred prime minister measure, according to the latest nightly tracking by Nanos
Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
Survey respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could
you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"
The latest numbers from Tuesday afternoon show:
31.7 per cent said they preferred Harper

 30.6 per cent preferred Trudeau

19.0 per cent preferred Mulcair
Among the other federal party leaders, 5.1 per cent said they preferred Green Party
Leader Elizabeth May, while 2.5 preferred Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe.
Support for Mulcair as prime minister is at its lowest point yet in Nanos tracking, when
compared to previous results from the election campaign. One month ago, Mulcair had
27.8 per cent support and was in a statistical tie with Harper as the country's preferred
PM.
However, Mulcair remains tied with Harper and Trudeau on a measure of how he is
perceived as a leader.
When asked to evaluate each party leader's qualities as a good political leader, voters
responded with 55.7 per cent support for Trudeau, 55.3 per cent support for Mulcair
and 52.2 per cent support for Harper. Duceppe had 46.4 per cent support, while
Elizabeth May had 34.5 per cent support.
Party Power Index
On the Nanos Party Power Index, which is a composite of several measures including
ballot preferences, PM preferences and leader impressions, the Liberals scored 54.6
points out of a possible 100, the Conservatives scored 50.3 points and the NDP
scored 49.4 points.
The index measures each party's brand strength based on a set of questions about
the federal parties and their leadership.
The views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each
party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party
has maximum brand strength.
Survey methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by
Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new
group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a
three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new
day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a
survey of 1,200 respondents is 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll and survey at Nanos Research
Follow @niknanos on Twitter
Posted by Thavam