Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Coalitions Needed
Eminent Mindanawon Leaders Meeting
October 5, 2015
Marco Polo Hotel, Davao
Overview
Inclusive growth:
What is it? It is more than growth, but it
does start with growth, and growth
needs macroeconomic stability
increasing
value-added
per worker
in
agriculture
Putting in place
appropriate
social
protection
schemes
and raising
human
capital
endowments
120
10
100
2000-09
2010-14
80
60
40
20
-2
-20
-4
-40
-6
USD billion
Percent
1990-99
-60
Current account
balance (in percent of
GDP)
Inflation rate
International reserves
(USD billion, RHS)
Inclusive Growth:
inequality is the new growth agenda
World
10
High-income countries
Developing countries
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-4
10%
8%
Thailand: 1987-92
Malaysia: 1997-04
Indonesia: 1984-90
6%
Vietnam: 2002-08
Malaysia: 1984-92
Cambodia: 2002-07
Thailand: 1992-99
Thailand: 1999-04
Lao :2002-08
Indonesia: 2002-09
Philippines: 2000-06
2%
Malaysia: 1992-977
Indonesia: 1990-6
0%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-2%
-4%
Malaysia: 2004-09
-6%
Average Annual Growth Rate of Real Per Capita GDP (Period Average)
Inclusive Growth:
the special role of agriculture
Structural transformation:
China lifted 600 million people out of poverty.
Agriculture: first poverty responder
Manufacturing is the second: 300 million people moved from farms to factories
2.5
2
1.5
The 1st transformation
from agriculture to
industry
1
0.5
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Agriculture
Industry
Services
11
economy
pulls labor out of agriculture more or less rapidly.
Source: Ligon and Sadoulet, 2007. Background paper to the WDR 2008 (see website)
Based on data from 42 countries (1983-2003)
unskilled laborers
Sources: Johnston and Mellor (1961), Delgado and Alfano (1994), WDR 2008, Delgado et al.
(1998), Block and Timmer (1994)
Family farms with little hired labor benefit from the superior
incentives of family members to work hard, save, and
investthis makes them efficient
However, family farms are at a disadvantage in access to
markets, credit, technology, but these disadvantages rarely
offset the advantages from better incentives
Inverse farm size productivity relation literature
demonstrates this effect
But there is morealso a link from family farms and their
property rights to land to institutions which generate broadbased economic growth
Take rural land distribution and its impact on overall
economic growth
Sources: On superior efficiency of family farms: large body of literature, see Berry and Cline,
Stiglitz, Hazell.
Average GDP
growt h, 1960-2000
T aiwan (China)
Korea
6
T hailand
Viet nam
Colombia
Paraguay
2
Japan
Malaysia
Dominican
Republic
China
Indonesia
Sri Lanka
Egypt
India
Brazil
Mexico
Cost a Rica
Guat emala
Kenya
Argent ina
Sout h Africa
Peru
Honduras
El Salvador
Venezuela
Nicaragua
Init ial land dist ribut ion
-2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
Colombia
Costa Rica
Structural characteristics
187080
182040
61.0
42.2
14.0
37.5
Guatemala
El Salvador
1870s
13.1
79.5
1870s
13.5
57.1
49
76
56
55
58
77
Social and economic development
6,130
5,850
3,340
34
40
52
85
51
1958
36
50
67
91
33
1948
12
13
18
54
117
1996
83
93
2,610
26
26
27
64
112
1992
elites and prevented the rise of institutions necessary for broadbased economic growth:
Education, health, infrastructure, rule of law, property rights for the poor,
accountability in public service delivery, etc.
around land.
Source: James A. Robinson, 2006. The Political Economy of Equality and Growth in
Mexico: Lessons from the History of the United States.
http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~jrobins/researchpapers/unpublishedpapers/jr_Mexico.pdf
Robber Barons
Interstate Commerce Act, federal regulation of industry, Sherman
Ant-Trust Act, regulation of railroads
Source: James A. Robinson, 2006. The Political Economy of Equality and Growth in
Mexico: Lessons from the History of the United States.
http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~jrobins/researchpapers/unpublishedpapers/jr_Mexico.pdf
Source: W.L. Lissner. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Vol. 11, No. 1 (Oct.,
1951), pp. 53-54
Inclusive Growth:
inclusive economic institutions,
competition
250
100
80
150
Millions
PHP billion
200
100
60
40
50
20
Source: WDI
16
14
20
10
8
6
4
2
0
Millions
USD billion
12
15
10
5
0
Source: WDI
Note: Data include passengers of both domestic and international
flights.
25
26
360,000
Engineer officer
12,701
11,855
OFW deployment
21,976
350,000
11,695
340,000
330,000
11,307
320,000
310,000
300,000
290,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: POEA
28
3.5
2500
2
1500
1.5
Share (%)
Gross Tonnage
2.5
2000
Gross Tonnage
Market Share (%)
1000
1
500
0.5
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Source: IHS (Former Lloyds Register) World Fleet Statistics. World Shipbuilding Statistics.
The Shipbuilders Association of Japan Shipbuilding Statistics March, 2013.
The Shipbuilders Association of Japan Shipbuilding Statistics March, 2015.
Rice trade:
strong resistance to reform
Comparison of rice prices
1
Philippines
0.9
Thailand
Vietnam
0.8
0.7
USD/kg
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Source: FAO
32
Other food
expenditure
Other food
expenditure
Other
expenditure
Other
expenditure
Source: World Bank staff calculations using Family and Income Expenditure Survey (FIES) 2012
33
Inclusive Growth:
good governance
Good governance:
Accountability between citizens, politicians and civil
servants
Education
Social welfare
1,000
425.8
PHP billion
800
600
214.9
328.2
169.3
400
133.0
104.5
547.3
101.0
200
389.5
309.0
329.4
327.0
235.2
271.7
37.9
38.6
49.9
57.7
98.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
56.9
2015
132.7
2016
Source: DBM
36
Health
Education
Social welfare
Infrastructure
Others
250
PHP billions
200
150
100
50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: DBM
Note: Spending gaps refer to the difference between what was budgeted and what was actually disbursed.
37
35
Percent of GDP
30
25
20
15
7
6
5
4
3
10
2
1
0
0
Malaysia
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
Thailand
39
40
Inclusive growth:
good leaders not enough, coalitions
needed
43