Quarterly data on Intel sales

($ millions)
Quarter
Sales Lt
Q1-86
280.05
Q2-86
305.18
305.18
Q3-86
324.14 325.2772
Q4-86
355.64 350.463
Q1-87
394.53 378.5969
Q2-87
438.96 410.6261
Q3-87
501.13 450.1697
Q4-87
572.49 496.1654
Q1-88
635.81 544.8763
Q2-88
726.68 600.3865
Q3-88
784.94 667.7303
Q4-88
727.34 711.735
Q1-89
713.08 740.5763
Q2-89
747.34 763.8331
Q3-89
771.44 792.0273
Q4-89
894.97 836.5889
Q1-90
894.46 870.602
Q2-90
968.30 906.6334
Q3-90 1012.44 953.3134
Q4-90 1046.07 996.3727
Q1-91 1132.78 1045.902
Q2-91 1252.69 1103.686
Q3-91 1187.70 1150.797
Q4-91 1205.45 1190.053
Q1-92 1241.29 1224.308
Q2-92 1319.69 1257.881
Q3-92 1426.17 1316.959
Q4-92 1856.83 1448.788
Q1-93 2023.56 1595.966
Q2-93 2129.56 1735.798
Q3-93 2239.85 1896.082
Q4-93 2389.03 2052.859
Q1-94 2660.00 2233.279
Q2-94 2770.00 2397.186
Q3-94 2863.00 2573.638
Q4-94 3228.00 2778.562
Q1-95 3557.00 3006.858
Q2-95 3894.00 3251.608
Q3-95 4171.00 3542.152
Q4-95 4580.00 3849.312
Q1-96 4644.00 4113.204
Q2-96 4621.00 4312.447
Q3-96 5142.00 4597.294
Q4-96 6440.00 5052.266
Q1-97 6448.00 5446.775
Q2-97 5960.00 5681.001
Q3-97 6155.00 5927.276
Q4-97 6507.00 6142.791
Q1-98 6001.00 6217.604
Q2-98 5927.00 6237.21
Q3-98 6731.00 6401.45
Q4-98 7614.00 6649.219
Q1-99 7103.00 6780.98
Q2-99 6746.00 6816.602
Q3-99 7328.00 6951.64

M:==>

Tt

St

Ft

25.12
23.891
24.14995
24.94676
26.36325
28.9993
32.39859
35.66104
39.63089
45.17347
44.93971
41.72003
38.02737
36.06074
37.76092
37.01135
36.81536
38.78829
39.6425
41.6199
44.85265
45.30426
44.09471
42.12676
40.41608
44.14834
61.68457
78.78326
90.99295
104.8512
115.2363
128.273
135.3998
143.6103
155.8731
170.3577
185.2362
206.2977
226.4701
233.9544
227.0123
238.5791
281.8577
304.388
290.3556
281.5396
268.3345
229.6303
187.6255
182.9483
195.9124
183.0821
153.5902
149.8797

1
0.996495
1.014778
1.042092
1.068992
1.008165
1.028682
1.054572
1.083129
1.024902
1.028007
1.045402
1.072656
1.019812
1.032185
1.043602
1.072192
1.024033
1.033955
1.047548
1.078473
1.024837
1.031853
1.04418
1.07554
1.030646
1.056832
1.066554
1.090671
1.045711
1.067525
1.079006
1.097156
1.052384
1.076948
1.089402
1.107196
1.064898
1.088235
1.093366
1.103632
1.070257
1.106879
1.102412
1.09818
1.067073
1.10212
1.088687
1.083388
1.065514
1.106418
1.084567
1.074014
1.064377

330.302
347.9443
380.1488
420.5298
467.1381
483.0814
543.7245
612.2181
693.2211
730.6564
777.8667
817.8141
860.1204
844.4941
902.4909
947.1869
1011.558
1015.945
1071.193
1139.232
1238.668
1225.808
1273.459
1322.386
1396.371
1402.819
1596.317
1786.211
1992.427
2092.399
2314.496
2548.129
2778.641
2859.588
3160.233
3461.265
3805.262
3991.719
4435.41
4753.037
5009.891
5175.627
5904.231
6340.15
6557.622
6625.262
7065.832
7019.019
6960.59
7015.769
7573.577
7552.992
7486.081
7558.692

Exponential
280.05
285.0788
292.8904
305.4408
323.2592
346.3986
377.3444
416.3732
460.2599
513.5445
567.8234
599.7267
622.398
647.3858
672.1962
716.752
752.293
795.4946
838.8839
880.3221
930.8133
995.1878
1033.691
1068.042
1102.692
1146.092
1202.107
1333.052
1471.154
1602.835
1730.238
1861.997
2021.597
2171.278
2309.622
2493.298
2706.038
2943.631
3189.104
3467.284
3702.627
3886.302
4137.441
4597.953
4967.962
5166.37
5364.096
5592.677
5674.341
5724.873
5926.098
6263.679
6431.543
6494.434
6661.148

Farid Alizadeh:
For Holt-Winters method
the formulas are
different for the first
cycle (bordered red)
and the rest of the
cycles.

10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000

0
12/30/1899 1/19/190

E
10000.00
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
12/30/1899

1/19/19

3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
Q4-99
Q1-00
Q2-00
Q3-00
Q4-00
Q1-01

8212.00
7993.00
8300.00
8731.00
8702.00
6677.00

7165.646
7336.633
7546.4
7816.458
7974.773
7759.237

162.7049
164.3613
173.4424
192.7657
185.8754
105.5933

1.110379
1.085057
1.076598
1.069639
1.10846
1.062603

8137.244
8139.004
8311.169
8566.98
9045.751
8357.196

6971.318
7175.654
7400.524
7666.619
7873.695
7634.356

0.00
12/30/1899

1/19/19

Alizadeh:
olt-Winters method
rmulas are
ent for the first
(bordered red)
he rest of the
.

alpha
beta
gamma
MAD
MAPE

0.2
0.2
0.1
Holt-winters Exponential
291.08422 652.74834
8.18%
21.70%

Change values of alpha, beta and gamma

and see the effects. Also notice that in this
case MAD and MAPE results for HoltWinters method is far superior to simple
exponential smoothing

Holt-Winters
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000

Sales

5000

Ft

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12/30/1899 1/19/1900

2/8/1900

2/28/1900

3/20/1900

Exponential smoothing
10000.00
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00

Sales

5000.00

Exponential

4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
12/30/1899

1/19/1900

2/8/1900

2/28/1900

3/20/1900

3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
12/30/1899

1/19/1900

2/8/1900

2/28/1900

3/20/1900

Quarter
Q1-86
Q2-86
Q3-86
Q4-86
Q1-87
Q2-87
Q3-87
Q4-87
Q1-88
Q2-88
Q3-88
Q4-88
Q1-89
Q2-89
Q3-89
Q4-89
Q1-90
Q2-90
Q3-90
Q4-90
Q1-91
Q2-91
Q3-91
Q4-91
Q1-92
Q2-92
Q3-92
Q4-92
Q1-93
Q2-93
Q3-93
Q4-93
Q1-94
Q2-94
Q3-94
Q4-94
Q1-95
Q2-95
Q3-95
Q4-95
Q1-96
Q2-96
Q3-96
Q4-96
Q1-97
Q2-97
Q3-97
Q4-97
Q1-98
Q2-98
Q3-98
Q4-98
Q1-99
Q2-99

Sales
280.05
305.18
324.14
355.64
394.53
438.96
501.13
572.49
635.81
726.68
784.94
727.34
713.08
747.34
771.44
894.97
894.46
968.30
1012.44
1046.07
1132.78
1252.69
1187.70
1205.45
1241.29
1319.69
1426.17
1856.83
2023.56
2129.56
2239.85
2389.03
2660.00
2770.00
2863.00
3228.00
3557.00
3894.00
4171.00
4580.00
4644.00
4621.00
5142.00
6440.00
6448.00
5960.00
6155.00
6507.00
6001.00
5927.00
6731.00
7614.00
7103.00
6746.00

log sales)
t
2.44724178
2.484553222
2.510728607
2.551013043
2.596083335
2.642420989
2.699948669
2.757766387
2.803325304
2.861345
2.894835907
2.861737471
2.853140082
2.873516484
2.887301028
2.951810903
2.951559467
2.98601038
3.005369724
3.019562822
3.054144806
3.097842223
3.074707853
3.08114884
3.093873605
3.120472912
3.154170383
3.268772845
3.306115871
3.32828988
3.350218547
3.378222148
3.424881637
3.442479769
3.456821348
3.508933526
3.551083865
3.590395947
3.62024019
3.660865478
3.666892211
3.664735969
3.711132072
3.808885867
3.809425029
3.77524626
3.789228057
3.813380807
3.778223627
3.772834927
3.828079591
3.881612872
3.851441815
3.829046337

Q1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54

Q2
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

Q3
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1

0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

Q3-99
Q4-99
Q1-00
Q2-00
Q3-00
Q4-00
Q1-01

7328.00
8212.00
7993.00
8300.00
8731.00
8702.00
6677.00

3.864985461
3.914448941
3.902709813
3.919078092
3.941063988
3.939619079
3.824581376

55
56
57
58
59
60
61

0
0
1
0
0
0
1

0
0
0
1
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
1
0
0

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.98726162
R Square
0.9746855
Adjusted R S 0.97287732
Standard Erro 0.07563576
Observations
61
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
t
Q1
Q2
Q3

SS
MS
F
Significance F
4 12.33495579 3.08373895 539.042756 5.572E-044
56 0.320363049 0.00572077
60 12.65531884

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
2.54317157 0.026299497 96.7003868
0.02552127 0.000550461 46.3634776
-0.02716058 0.027188888 -0.99895872
-0.01625831 0.02764021 -0.58821231
-0.01507537 0.027623761 -0.5457394

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted log sales)Residuals
1 2.54153226 -0.09429048
2 2.57795579 -0.09340257
3
2.60466 -0.09393139
4 2.64525664 -0.09424359
5 2.64361732 -0.04753399
6 2.68004085 -0.03761987
7 2.70674506 -0.00679639
8 2.7473417 0.01042469
9 2.74570239 0.057622918
10 2.78212592 0.079219083
11 2.80883012 0.086005788
12 2.84942676 0.012310712
13 2.84778745 0.005352634
14 2.88421098 -0.01069449
15 2.91091518 -0.02361415
16 2.95151182 0.000299082
17 2.94987251 0.001686957
18 2.98629604 -0.00028566
19 3.01300024 -0.00763052
20 3.05359688 -0.03403406
21 3.05195757 0.002187234
22 3.0883811 0.00946112

P-value
5.246E-064
2.301E-046
0.32211178
0.55875469
0.58741254

Lower 95%
2.49048738
0.02441856
-0.08162643
-0.07162827
-0.07041238

Upper 95%
2.59585576
0.02662397
0.02730527
0.03911165
0.04026163

23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61

3.1150853
3.15568194
3.15404263
3.19046616
3.21717037
3.25776701
3.2561277
3.29255123
3.31925543
3.35985207
3.35821276
3.39463629
3.42134049
3.46193713
3.46029782
3.49672135
3.52342555
3.56402219
3.56238288
3.59880641
3.62551061
3.66610725
3.66446794
3.70089147
3.72759568
3.76819232
3.766553
3.80297654
3.82968074
3.87027738
3.86863807
3.9050616
3.9317658
3.97236244
3.97072313
4.00714666
4.03385086
4.0744475
4.07280819

-0.04037745
-0.0745331
-0.06016903
-0.06999325
-0.06299998
0.011005838
0.049988176
0.035738654
0.030963119
0.01837008
0.066668879
0.047843481
0.035480858
0.046996396
0.090786046
0.093674597
0.096814638
0.096843286
0.10450933
0.065929557
0.085621458
0.142778613
0.144957086
0.074354786
0.061632381
0.045188491
0.011670622
-0.03014161
-0.00160115
0.011335494
-0.01719625
-0.07601526
-0.06678034
-0.0579135
-0.06801332
-0.08806857
-0.09278687
-0.13482842
-0.24822681

Q4
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

predicted
value of
Log(sales)
2.5415322623
2.5779557929
2.6046599952
2.6452566355
2.6436173242
2.6800408548
2.7067450571
2.7473416974
2.7457023861
2.7821259167
2.808830119
2.8494267593
2.847787448
2.8842109785
2.9109151808
2.9515118212
2.9498725098
2.9862960404
3.0130002427
3.053596883
3.0519575717
3.0883811023
3.1150853046
3.1556819449
3.1540426336
3.1904661642
3.2171703665
3.2577670068
3.2561276955
3.292551226
3.3192554283
3.3598520687
3.3582127573
3.3946362879
3.4213404902
3.4619371305
3.4602978192
3.4967213498
3.5234255521
3.5640221924
3.5623828811
3.5988064117
3.625510614
3.6661072543
3.6644679429
3.7008914735
3.7275956758
3.7681923162
3.7665530048
3.8029765354
3.8296807377
3.870277378
3.8686380667
3.9050615973

predicted
sales
347.962356
378.404065
402.401875
441.83146
440.166842
478.67512
509.031967
558.909765
556.804051
605.516409
643.917338
707.011958
704.348263
765.968621
814.545185
894.358875
890.989344
968.938116
1030.3867
1131.34974
1127.08734
1225.6913
1303.42277
1431.13942
1425.74755
1550.47998
1648.80906
1810.36859
1803.54796
1961.33251
2085.71723
2290.08746
2281.45947
2481.05441
2638.3991
2896.92419
2886.00992
3138.49434
3337.53287
3664.563
3650.75662
3970.14539
4221.92597
4635.61388
4618.14902
5022.17074
5340.66916
5863.97778
5841.88502
6352.96606
6755.8615
7417.83857
7389.89158
8036.40097

Farid Alizadeh:
Here we assume that sales are
exponential growth with respect to
time. Thus we take log (base 10
here, but any other bases will do)
We then create four columns
representing the dummy that is 01) variables for each quarter. Then
we use multiple regression with log
sales) as dependent variable, and
time and three of the four dummy
variables (in this case Q1-Q3) as
independent variables. The
regression produces coefficients of
the equation we then use these
variables to get predicted values of
log sales) and then raise 10 to
these values to get the predicted
sales.

MAD
MAPE

557.9331
13.37%

Sales
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Log of sales
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5

Log

pre

4
3.5
3

0
1
0
0
0
1
0

3.9317657996
3.9723624399
3.9707231286
4.0071466592
4.0338508614
4.0744475018
4.0728081904

8546.05728
9383.44775
9348.09524
10165.9193
10810.6265
11869.9121
11825.1917

Log

2.5

pre

2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12/30/1899 1/19/1900

Lower 95.0%
2.49048738
0.02441856
-0.08162643
-0.07162827
-0.07041238

Upper 95.0%
2.5958557628
0.0266239697
0.0273052747
0.0391116451
0.0402616312

2/8/1900

2/28/1900 3/20/1900

ales

sales
predic ted sales

50

60

70

of sales

Log(sales)
predicted Log(sales)

8/1900 3/20/1900

Log(sales)
predicted Log(sales)