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.OVERVIEW
With a population of over one billion, India is one of the largest economies in the
world in terms of purchasing power and increasing consumer spending, next to
China. The Indian FMCG industry, with an estimated market size of ~`2 trillion,
accounts for the fourth largest sector in India. In the last decade, the FMCG sector
has grown at an average of 11% a year; in the last five years, annual growth
accelerated at compounded rate of ~17.3%. The sector is characterized by strong
presence of global businesses, intense competition between organized and
unorganized players, well established distribution network and low operational cost.
Availability of key raw materials, cheaper labor costs and presence across the entire
value chain gives India a competitive advantage. During 2012, the country witnessed
high inflation, muted salary hikes and slowing economic growth, which affected the
FMCG sector with companies posting deceleration in volume growth in their quarterly
results. However, the trend seen in 2012 is likely to accelerate in 2013 as growth will
come from rural dwellers that are expected to see a rise in their disposable incomes.
Fast Facts: Indian FMCG Industry
The Indian FMCG industry represents nearly 2.5% of the countrys GDP.
The industry has tripled in size in past 10 years and has grown at ~17%CAGR in the last 5 years driven by rising income
levels, increasing urbanisation, strong rural demand and favourable demographic trends.
The sector accounted for 1.9% of the nations total FDI inflows in April 2000- September 2012. Cumulative FDI inflows into
India from April 2000 to April 2013 in the food processing sector stood at `9,000.3 crore, accounting for 0.96% of overall FDI
inflows while the soaps, cosmetics and toiletries, accounting for 0.32% of overall FDI at `3,115.5 crore.
Food products and personal care together make up two-third of the sectors revenues.
Rural India accounts for more than 700 mn consumers or 70% of the Indian population and accounts for 50% of the total
FMCG market.
With changing lifestyle and increasing consumer demand, the Indian FMCG market is expected to cross $80 bn by 2026 in
towns with population of up to 10 lakh.
India's labor cost is amongst the lowest in the world, after China & Indonesia, giving it a competitive advantage over other
countries.
Unilever Plc's $5.4 billion bid for a 23% stake in Hindustan Unilever is the largest Asia Pacific cross border inbound merger
and acquisition (M&A) deal so far in FY14 and is the fifth largest India Inbound M&A transaction on record till date.
Excise duty on cigarette has been increased in the Union Budget for 2013-14, which would hit major industrial conglomerates
like ITC, VST Industries in the short term.
Opportunities in FMCG Sector:
High inflation
Infrastructure bottlenecks
FMCG Industry
Household care
Personal care
Household care
The fabric wash market size is estimated to be ~USD 1 billion, household cleaners to be USD 239 million, with the production of
synthetic detergents at 2.6 million tonnes. The demand for detergents has been growing at an annual growth rate of 10 to 11% during
the past five years. On account of convenience of usage, increased purchasing power, aggressive advertising and increased penetration
of washing machines, the urban market prefers washing powder and detergents to bars. The regional and small unorganized players
account for a major share of the total detergent market in volumes. Household Care category recorded robust volume and value growth
during the year through focused innovation in the portfolio to provide greater consumer value. Vim bar continues to delight consumers
by delivering superior performance and new offerings like the Anti-Germ Bar and the Monthly Tub Pack. Vim liquid continues to develop
the liquid dish wash category driven by superior product quality and strong advertising. It has effectively accomplished the dual job of
growing the liquids market by reaching out to more households, while increasing consumption in existing households. Domex continued
to provide clean and germ free toilets to the consumers.
Marico (42%)
Dabur (15%)
Bajaj (8%)
Emami (5%)
Shampoo
HUL (46%)
P&G (24%)
Dabur (6%)
Oral care
Colgate (50%)
HUL (23%)
Dabur (13%)
Skin Care
HUL (59%)
Dabur (7%)
Emami (7%)
Loreal (6%)
Fruit Juice
Dabur (52%)
Pepsico (35%)
United Spirits
Diageo Plc.
Acquisition
HobiKozmetik, Turkey
Dabur
Acquisition
Wipro Consumer
Acquisition
Acquisition
CosmeticaNacional (Cosmetics)
Acquisition
Acquisition
Acquisition
Merger/Acquisition
Acquisition
Merger
New launches and product extension by FMCG companies to boost growth and market share
New launches, innovation and product augmentation are many of the few motivational factors for a FMCG company that has the
potential to increase their profitability to a greater extent. As Indian customers are becoming more global in their aspirations and
desires, their appetite to consume products is also increasing. Robust demand for existing FMCG products are encouraging more
FMCG players to extend their existing brand and expand their product portfolio as well, bolstering the Indian FMCG space. Moreover,
in a bid to garner higher market share and sustain long-term growth, most of the FMCG companies are going for brand extension
strategy. Various big industrial players launched new and innovative products and ideas during FY13. For instance,
HULs one of the largest brands, Lifebuoy aims to change hand washing behavior of people by educating them about health
and hygiene. At the Mahakumbh Mela, Lifebuoy partnered with over 100 restaurants to raise awareness about hand
hygiene. Over 2.5 million Rotis (carried the stamp Lifebuoy se haath dhoye kya? and reminded people to wash their hands
before eating.
HULs Kissan strengthened its natural advantage by re- positioning itself on Goodness of 100% real. The idea was to give
consumers a real experience in the products they buy and through participation in activities that help them connect to
nature. This inspired the launch of Kissanpur.
Marico entered the breakfast category by launching Saffola oats in various flavors. It also launched new products in the hair
care and skin care segments. The acquisition of Paras Healthcare last year helped it extend into the male personal care
business where it gained some traction.
For Godrej, the growth came in from new channels, product innovation, and pollination across regions and expansion of the
distribution network. New launches such as creme-based hair colour and extension of Cinthol into categories such as face
wash and moisturizers gave an added impetus to the overall business. HUL also went in for extensions in brands such as
Lux, Pepsodent and Pureit.
For Dabur, the year 2012 undertook a mega initiative to substantially expand its distribution footprint and drive profitable
growth. This initiative was aimed at doubling the direct distribution reach in rural markets, customizing trade promotions and
providing focused servicing through a dedicated sales team in these markets.
Company Name
New Launches
Babool Salt toothpaste, Gulabari Saffron & Turmeric
Cold Cream and Lotion, Air-freshening gels under the
brand Odonil.
New Variants
Turmeric and Saffron-based bleaches under
Fem, Packaged juices under the brands Ral and
Activ and Anardana variant in Hajmola.
ITC Ltd.
Demographic Analysis
The Indian middle class population is the most promising market for FMCG and give brand makers the opportunity to convert them to
branded products. As per McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), middle class population in India is going to increase by about 12 times
during 2005-2025; as a result, spending is expected to increase by about 2025, fuelling consumption demand.
Disposable income
Per capita disposable income determines an individual's ability to purchase goods or services. As per the BRICs report, India is likely
to witness a rise in disposable income to USD 1,150 by 2015, from the current USD 556 per annum, on account of growth in
industrial and services sector. As a result, spending will increase which will consequently boost the FMCG sector growth.
Budget (2013-14) Highlights and Impact on FMCG sector
The overall impact of budget 2013-14 has been neutral on FMCG sector. The budget turned out to be dampener for the cigarette
industry particularly for ITC with 18% rise in excise duty this year following last years 21% rise. However, rise in allocation for Ministry
of Rural Development augers well for FMCG companies. Besides, there was no major announcement for the sector.
Modest Benefits to consumption on account of increased outlays on rural development/ changes in lowest income slab
The finance minister's decision to increase allocation for Ministry of Rural Development announced in the latest budget by 46%
bodes well for FMCG companies, as rural region contributes one-third of FMCG sales. However, a large part of the increase shall
involve capital stock building, while expenditures on flagship MNREGA has been raised modestly (12% growth under the head of
rural employment). Further, the exemption limit has been raised modestly for the lowest income slab to `220,000.
Also, the government has made promising statements over the GST implementation, which may be implemented by the end of FY14.
Further, the budget has made an extra provision of `100 bn on account of the Food Subsidy Bill, which is also a positive trigger for
the FMCG sector.
Changes in excise duties for cigarettes
Excise duty on cigarette has been increased in the Union Budget for 2013-14, which would hit major industrial conglomerates like
ITC, VST Industries in the short term as volumes are likely to get impacted. The Union Budget has raised excise duties on cigarettes,
roughly by 18%, across cigarette lengths except the new slab (<65mm) that was introduced in the previous budget. Last year, the
government had levied a 10% retail price-based excise on cigarettes longer than 65mm. The companies have always been able to
pass on the duty hikes to customers and so there is unlikely to much impact in the medium-to-long term.
With steep Excise Duty hikes, discriminatory VAT taxes by various states, rising illegal trade and heightened competitive intensity, the
year ahead will be quite challenging.
To determine industry attractiveness and long-run industry profitability of the Indian FMCG Industry, we chose to apply the
Porters five forces in our analysis. Porters five forces are: (1) Barriers to Entry and exit, (2) Threat of substitutes, (3) Buyer
bargaining power, (4) supplier bargaining power, and (5) Industry Competition.
1. Barriers to Entry and exit: The Indian FMCG Industry is characterized with modest entry and exit barriers. Integrated
business model and increasing capital requirement in the industry restrict new entrants. Huge investments in setting
up distribution networks and promoting brands and competition from established companies.
2. Threat of substitutes: Being an essential commodity the demand for consumer products is elastic. Multiple brands
positioned with narrow product differentiation. Companies entering a category /trying to gain market share compete on
pricing which increases products substitution. Hence, threat of substitute is high in the industry.
3. Buyer bargaining power: High brand loyalty for some products, thereby discouraging customers product shift. But low
switching cost and aggressive marketing strategies under intense competition within the FMCG companies, induce
Customers to switch between products, thereby driving value for money deals for consumers.
4. Supplier bargaining power: Prices are generally governed by international commodity markets, making most FMCG
companies price takers. Due to the long term relationships with suppliers etc., FMCG companies negotiate better rates
during times of high input cost inflation
5. Industry Competition: Competitiveness among the Indian FMCG players is high. With more MNCs entering the country,
the industry is highly fragmented. Advertising spends continue to grow and marketing budgets as well as strategies are
becoming more aggressive. Private labels offered by retailers at a discount to mainframe brands act as competition to
undifferentiated and weak brands.
Hindustan Unilever
ITC
Nestle
Dabur India
Emami India
Godrej Consumers
Marico
Procter & Gamble
Year
ended
Sales (`bn)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
NPM (%)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
EPS (`)
BVPS (`)
Mar12
236.9
14.9
11.8
28.5
75.8
12.9
17.0
Mar13
275.4
15.6
13.9
32.7
133.7
17.7
13.2
Mar12
265.5
35.2
23.6
30.7
32.2
8.0
24.9
Mar13
316.3
35.7
24.1
31.7
32.9
9.6
29.3
Dec11
75.42
21.26
12.75
21.84
75.48
99.73
186.52
Dec12
83.66
22.58
12.77
20.68
59.38
110.76
132.13
Mar12
53.05
16.80
12.16
24.06
37.56
3.70
9.86
Mar13
61.76
16.70
12.36
27.64
35.94
4.38
12.19
Mar12
13.90
19.80
18.48
26.93
36.83
16.97
46.08
Mar13
17.55
28.45
17.94
25.88
20.80
20.80
51.38
Mar12
48.66
17.60
14.78
13.98
18.14
16.18
89.25
Mar13
64.07
15.90
12.29
12.64
18.94
19.61
103.51
Mar12
40.12
12.88
7.90
12.12
27.74
5.15
18.59
Mar13
46.34
14.31
8.54
10.68
19.98
6.17
30.73
Jun11
10.38
19.16
14.53
17.19
4.64
10.00
18.50
Jun12
13.48
18.63
13.45
16.50
5.58
10.00
21.47
Stock Data
625.8
730
17
Reuters Code
HLL.NS
Bloomberg Code
HUVR:IN
1,352.7
432-725
1,442.7
Promoters (%)
52.48
20.23
7.13
20.16
During FY13, the company achieved the strong growth across all
segments as strong pipeline of innovations helped it to further
strengthen its portfolio and brands. The Soaps and Detergents segment,
contributing ~47% to the revenues, grew by 18.8% YoY, on the back of
strong underlying volume growth and pricing actions. The high margin
Personal Products segment, contributing ~28% to the revenues rose by
12.7% YoY, driven by robust double digit growth in Skin Care Hair & Oral
Care category while the Beverages and Packaged Foods segment grew
14.3%YoY and 11% YoY, respectively.
HUL has been very actively re-launching products from its existing brands
and has increased the pace of new launches, targeting the mid/premium
market segment. This, in our view, is positive, considering that the
company will have a better control on pricing. Moreover, constant
innovations have helped HUL stabilize its market share loss. Some of the
key launches this year included, TRESemm, a premium range of hair
care products, Dove Elixir hair oil, Lakms advanced skincare range,
Perfect Radiance and Pepsodent Expert Care toothpaste.
Valuation
HUL has delivered broad based competitive growth and margin
improvement. Being the largest FMCG player in the country, HUL is well
positioned to take advantage of its strong brands by investing in brand
equity, finding and strengthening the connections between consumers and
the products through innovation and driven in-market execution and
operational efficiencies. Despite near term concern around slowing market
growth and inflationary pressures on consumers, the company remains
confident of the medium to long term growth prospects. Beside, with the
companys business model to achieve sustained growth, lower
environmental impact and positive social impact, we believe the stock could
see meaningful upside. At the price of `625.8, the stock is trading at P/E
multiple of 35.4x of its FY13 EPS of `17.7.
Key Data
FY12
FY13
13.7
14.4
NPM (%)
11.8
13.9
EPS (`)
12.9
17.7
17.0
13.2
P/E (x)
48.5
35.4
P/BVPS (x)
36.7
47.2
EV/EBITDA
38.4
31.8
ROCE (%)
74.0
102.9
ROE (%)
75.8
133.7
ITC LTD.
Investment Rationale
ITC has posted 22% growth in consolidated net profit at `76.1 bn in
FY13, mainly on account of strong performance across all financial
parameters, leveraging its corporate strategy of creating multiple
drivers of growth. Better revenue mix, higher operational efficiency and
significant rise in cigarette price enabled ITC to expand EBITDA margin
by 50 bps YoY to 35.7% in FY13. Going forward, we expect margin to
grow at ~37% in FY14E.
Stock Data
Current Market Price (`)
350.5
400
14
Reuters Code
ITC.NS
Bloomberg Code
ITC:IN
Key Data
2,769.6
251-380
1,974.9
Promoters (%)
19.64
33.79
46.57
FY12
FY13
35.2
35.7
NPM (%)
23.6
24.1
EPS (`)
8.0
9.6
24.9
29.3
P/E (x)
43.8
36.5
P/BVPS (x)
14.1
12.0
EV/EBITDA
29.4
24.2
ITC has strengthened its market share in FMCG sector via the launch of
new products with innovative ideas, penetration into new segments
and enhancing distribution channels. ITCs entry into the deodorant
market with the launch of Aqua Pulse Deodorant Spray under the
Fiama Di Wills Men franchise and the launch of 'Vivel Cell Renew'
Body Lotion, Hand Crme/Moisturiser and Vivel Perfect Glow Skin
Toner in target markets sets the tone for a pick-up in momentum in the
companys personal care business.
ROCE (%)
44.5
45.1
ROE (%)
32.2
32.9
Valuation
Over the years, ITC has utilized solid cash flows from the cigarette
business to expand its FMCG- other segment. Given the above industry
growth in the non-cigarette FMCG business, which turned profitable for the
first time in Q4FY13 and an aggressive investment in the new
businesses, ITC would demand premium valuations over its peers to
become a well-diversified growth company. At the price of `350.5, the
stock is trading at P/E multiple of 36.5x of its FY13 EPS of `9.6.
Stock Data
Current Market Price (`)
165.1
187
13
Reuters Code
DABU.NS
Bloomberg Code
DABUR:IN
Key Data
287.7
117.3-177.4
163.0
Promoters (%)
68.6
20.4
4.0
7.0
FY12
FY13
14.9
14.9
NPM (%)
12.2
12.5
EPS (`)
3.7
4.4
9.9
12.2
P/E (x)
44.59
37.68
P/BVPS (x)
16.74
13.54
EV/EBITDA
32.65
27.97
ROCE (%)
29.4
33.2
ROE (%)
37.6
35.9
Stock Data
822.5
980
19
Reuters Code
GOCP.NS
Bloomberg Code
GCPL:IN
Key Data
The company aims to grow 10 fold over the next 10 years and for that
it requires a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 26%.
The company believes that it can achieve it, as it already has achieved
26% growth rate over the past three years, when India was facing a
slowdown. The company is expecting about 15-20% of that growth of
26% CAGR, to come from organic growth and the balance from
inorganic growth.
FY12
FY13
17.3
15.2
NPM (%)
14.8
12.3
EPS (`)
16.2
19.6
89.2
103.5
P/E (x)
50.8
42.0
P/BVPS (x)
0.03
0.02
EV/EBITDA
33.8
28.6
ROCE (%)
18.7
17.7
ROE (%)
18.1
18.9
Valuation
Being a market leader in hair colour, home insecticides and liquid
detergent and the number two player in toilet soaps in the Indian market,
GCPL will continue to leverage innovation as a differentiator. The company
has launched several products in FY13 and has a strong innovation
pipeline in place to introduce exciting and disruptive new products.
Traction in Asian, African and Latin American business will further enhance
the profitability. At the price of `822.5, the stock is trading at P/E multiple
of 42.0x of its FY13 EPS of `19.6.
279.9
599.7-978.0
151.2
Promoters (%)
63.3
28.3
1.2
7.2
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