BPI

Iberian Daily
2015-07-31

Today's HIGHLIGHTS
Santander: Following 2Q15 earnings, we cut bottom-line estimates by c. 5%, with Spain and the US as the main drivers.
We expect an adj. EPS CAGR14-18F of 8% and reach a YE16 Price Target of 6.80. Although asset quality
improvements in Spain may offer positive surprises, top-line evolution comes as a concern. UK is a source of steady
earnings stream but the current low CoR levels limit the upside. Brazil is a revenant growth driver over the LT but the
impact on asset quality from the countrys economy downturn comes a threat to earnings in the ST. Despite the groups
decent capital position, regulation also takes its toll on the P&L as the bank guided towards 1bn of regulatory costs over
the next 3 years. SAN is trading at 1.22 PTBV16 for a ROTE17-18 of c. 11.5%. Neutral.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80241
Our retail analysts Jose Rito and Bruno Bessa, released a report on Jeronimo Martins updating the YE16 Price
Target to E15.80, after better than expected Q2 results. The ongoing restructuring plan should continue to be noticed
over the next earnings releases and fuel the share price. The ROIC recovery is underway and EPS growth prospects are
quite attractive (avg. 18% in 2015-18), leading us to maintain a Buy recommendation.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80141
Altri reported a record quarterly EBITDA and ahead of our estimates backed by better selling prices and lower than
expected costs. CF maintains a positive trend and we see scope to increase our estimates and net debt reduction in
FY15. Pulp momentum remains upbeat and we maintain a positive and CoRe Buy recommendation on the stock.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80201
SONC reported its 2Q15 numbers with the underlying EBITDA standing broadly in line with our numbers. Still, the sale
of non-core real estate assets (Duque de Loul) allowed the company to book Eur6mn gains for a total cash-in of
Eur10mn which together with the disposal of a further relevant stake in Imosede resulted in a Eur28mn net debt reduction
in 2Q14 (30% of the market cap) which should trigger the stock price performance. The triggers are starting to be
unveiled and SONC remains a deep value case. Buy.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80244
Ferrovial: 2Q15 What a great quarter! - 2Q15 Topline and EBITDA grew by 17% and 31% respectively, surpassing
our estimates by 5% (118mn) and 22% (60mn) in the same order and consensus by 8% and 21%. This set of results
should lead consensus to upgrade earnings and valuation. CoRe Buy.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80181
OHL: weak Q2 results and a 1bn capital increase - OHL announced that will convene a general shareholders
meeting to approve a 1bn rights issue. The funds will be used to reduce net recourse debt by c.650mn and to invest
c.350mn in the development of new concessions awarded to OHL outside Mexico. Regarding results Q2 EBITDA stood
6% and 10% below our and consensus forecast while Recourse Net debt increased by 158mn qoq to 1.24bn and in
line with expected with better WK performance.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80161
FCC: Good Q2 Cash flow despite operating level miss - Q2 sales reached 1.68bn, up 10% yoy. Q2 top line stood 6%
(96mn) and 5% above our estimates and consensus. Q2 EBITDA reached 200mn down 6% yoy and 9% below our
estimate and consensus, with the deviation explained by lower than expected Q2 EBITDA from construction (65% or
16mn below) and Cement (16% or 6mn below). Net debt reached 5.8bn, up 159mn qoq, impacted by seasonal NWC
deterioration still with a better performance than expected: -117mn in Q2 (o.w. -118mn in construction) vs. BPIF of
156mn. Capex stood also below our forecast by 26mn. All in all net debt stood 1% or 37mn below our estimate
despite the 19mn miss at EBITDA.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80243
EDP: 2Q15 earnings largely impacted by one-offs - EDP 2Q15 EBITDA and net income outperformed our estimates by
35% and 88% in Q2, respectively, as a result of a Eur 295mn positive one-off related with the acquisition of 50% of

Pecm in Brazil. Besides this impact results were broadly in line with expectations. Take a look at our note released
yesterday after market closing for details.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80121
Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE) reported better than expected 2Q15 results with EBITDA jumping by 30% yoy and coming
5% and 8% ahead of our and consensus estimates. The company benefited from strong top line and higher than
expected EBITDA mg of 5.5% (flat yoy; +10bps qoq) against our and consensus 5.4% forecast. Net cash has been the
main negative falling by Eur134mn (-24%) qoq due to the lack of relevant pre-payments. TRE has been delivering best-inclass earnings against the profit warnings from peers but the market has been reflecting this in the share price
performance and net cash remains subdue. The lack of relevant triggers ahead leads us to see more limited room for
outperformance.
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80249

Today's News

CAPITAL GOODS & INDUSTRIALS

Acerinox: 2Q15 conf. call highlights
Tubacex/Tubos Reunidos: Vallourec sees negative EBITDA in FY15

ENERGY
Abengoa: Abengoa Yield releases 2Q15 results
EDP: 2Q15 earnings largely impacted by one-offs
Repsol: 2Q15 Conference Call highlights
Saeta Yield: 2Q15 operating results above expected

ENGINEERING & INFRASTRUCTURES

CTT: Q2 conference call confirms positive impressions
Cementos Portland: Q2 operating results below expected
Mota Engil: To sell a stake in Ascendi?
Tecnicas Reunidas: confirms the award of the Al-Zour contract
TRE: better than expected results; cash drain in Q2

FINANCIALS
Santander: Cutting estimates following 2Q15 release
BBVA: Positive 2Q15 earnings
Popular: Neutral 2Q15 earnings
Santander: Still interested in HSBC Brazil
BME: Solid set of 2Q15 Results
CaixaBank: 2Q15 earnings

FOOD & RETAIL

Viscofan: slight 2Q15 earnings miss
Barn de Ley: 2Q15 EBITDA weaker than expected on margins

HEALTHCARE
Rovi: highlights from 2Q15 results conference call

TELECOMS, MEDIA & TECHNOLOGY

IDR: Weak set of results and little visibility for the 2H
CFN: Neutral to positive 2Q15 set of results
NBA: Good operational results of the 2Q, but weak on CF

TRAVEL & LEISURE

Amadeus: solid 2Q15 results in line with estimated
IAG: reassuring 2Q15 results, FY15 guidance reiterated

OTHERS
SONC: 2Q15 results unveil the sale of real estate assets
Prosegur: 2Q15 conf. call highlights

MACRO & STRATEGY

Spain: 2Q15 GDP increased 1.0% qoq
Spain: HCPI fell 0.1% yoy in July
Portugal: consumer confidence increased to -19.0 in July
Portugal: industrial production declined 1.3% mom in June
Portugal: retail sales increased 2.4% yoy in June
Portugal: unemployment rate stood at 12.4% in June

Greece: internal Syriza referendum on bailout while IMFs participation in bailout remains in doubt
Eurozone: economic sentiment increased to 104.0 in July
Eurozone: consumer confidence fell to -7.1 points in July
Germany: unemployment rate stood at 6.4% in July
Germany: HCPI increased 0.1% yoy in July
US: 2Q15 GDP rose 2.3%
US: consumer spending increased 2.9% in Q2
US: initial jobless claims increased to 267k in the week ended July 26
TODAY, WE HIGHLIGHT

KEY CORPORATE EVENTS

CONTACTS & DISCLAIMER

CAPITAL GOODS & INDUSTRIALS

Acerinox: 2Q15 conf. call highlights
(Neutral, PT 16.20)
(=) Nickel-related inventory write-downs: 6.9mn in Q2, 7% of reported EBITDA. Excluding it, EBITDA would have
come at 108mn (9.2% margin), implying a 5% growth from Q1 (when there were no significant write-downs). The Q2
impairment reflects a mark-to-market to current raw material prices.
(=) Cost savings program: the IV Excellence Plan (2015-2016) is progressing better than expected with 57% of targets
(38mn) already met in 1H15.
(-) Q3 EBITDA outlook: it is expected to be worse qoq, hampered by seasonality (summer period) but also by difficult
market conditions in the US (main earnings contributor for Acerinox), where imports rose 38% in 1H15 (although slowing
down at the end of the semester).
(=/+) Real demand: Acerinox reiterated that real demand is in good shape and improving both in the US and Europe. The
trend is seen across the board (capital goods, consumer goods, autos) with the exception of the energy/oil & gas sector.
(=/+) Potential anti-dumping case in the US: this is being considered by the local stainless steel association but still
limited visibility about a decision timeframe.
Asian supply continues to be a source of strong competition and global imbalance in the stainless steel industry but,
within this structural backdrop, we note that we may be experiencing a mini-cycle bottom with nickel, distribution demand
and base prices at historical low levels.

Tubacex/Tubos Reunidos: Vallourec sees negative EBITDA in FY15

(Buy, PT: 3.90) (Neutral; PT: 1.90)
Vallourec (VK) reported its 2Q15 numbers with a very difficult outlook. EBITDA stood at Eur13mn in 2Q15 vs. Eur248mn
in 2Q14 but more importantly the company said that the deterioration of the Oil & Gas market should continue to slam
deliveries and margins leading to an expected negative FY15 EBITDA. (Company release)
Comment: Tubacex has already released its 2Q15 numbers unveiling a 23% negative underlying evolution in 1H15 and
we expect Tubos Reunidos to also witness strong negative trends in the quarter. VKs negative EBITDA expected in FY15
(vs. Eur66mn positive in 1H15) highlights a continuous deterioration of the industry fundamentals, suggesting that the
worst could be yet to come for Tubacex and Tubos Reunidos as well, which should weigh negatively on the share price
performance of both stocks. We note nevertheless that this sluggish outlook has a more direct link to Tubos Reunidos
due to the companies similar geographic and segment exposure.
Jos Rito / Manuel Coelho / Bruno Bessa
BACK TO INDEX

ENERGY
Abengoa: Abengoa Yield releases 2Q15 results
(Reduce; PT 3.35)
Reaffirming FY15 and FY16 dividend guidance
Abengoa Yield announced a quarterly dividend corresponding to the 2Q15 amounting to USD 0.40/sh, which represents
an 18% increase over initial guidance for the quarter. Abengoa Yield reaffirmed its guidance on Dividend per Share of
USD 1.60 for 2015 and Dividend per Share in the range of USD 2.10 to USD 2.15 for 2016 and expects to update this
guidance when long term financing of the fourth acquisition is closed.
Q2 results above consensus
1H15 revenues reached USD 308.6mn +82% yoy vs. consensus USD 286mn. Further Adjusted EBITDA including
unconsolidated affiliates reached USD 264.8mn, + 93% yoy vs consensus USD 242mn. Cash Available for Distribution
reached USD 83.1mn, USD 44.6mn in Q2. Gross corporate debt at the end of June stood at USD 377.0mn and liquidity
reached USD 154.8mn at the holding company level on an unconsolidated basis (1.3x Net Corporate Debt / CAFD precorporate debt service ratio). Net project debt amounted to USD 4868mn (USD 3624mn at YE). (Press Release,
Bloomberg)

EDP: 2Q15 earnings largely impacted by one-offs

(Reduce; PT 3.35)
Underlying results in line; figures massively distorted by Pecm purchase: EDPs 2Q15 NP reached 290mn (23% yoy), standing 88% above our numbers (154mn) and 65% ahead of consensus (176mn, Bloomberg). Figures
were severely distorted by a 295mn positive one-off related with the acquisition of 50% of Pecm in Q2 (267mn
booked in Brazil and 28mn in Others at EBITDA level, 132mn at net income level); excluding this effect net
income would have been 2% above our forecast. EBITDA was 15% higher yoy, coming 35% above our 828mn
forecast and consensus 826mn; again, numbers were 1% below estimates excluding the Brazilian one-off. 1Q15
EBITDA figures were restated to reflect the application of IFRIC21, making Q2 results analysis slightly distorted. Main
negative deviations to our figures came from Liberalised unit (EBITDA -39% yoy, 31mn or 29% lower than expected
on poorer margins) and taxes (due to inclusion of the full energy contribution tax in H1). Brazil results ex-one-offs were
ahead of our numbers on better than expected margins, although the main positive surprise came from better than
expected financials partly driven by positive FX impact. Net debt at 17.7bn came broadly in line with expectations
and showed a boost qoq due to the 0.7bn integration of Pecm.
EDP 2Q15 vs. Consensus
EDP Cons. range

Avg.
estim ate

Dev.

BPI

Dev.

1,114

780-935

826

35%

828

35%

EBIT

758

410-579

470

61%

479

58%

Net Profit

290

122-271

176

65%

154

88%

Net Debt

17,700

17200-17800

17,203

3%

17,565

1%

EBITDA

Source: EDP, Bloomberg & BPI Equity research (E, dev)

No changes in consensus expected besides inclusion of one-offs: Overall trends in results came in line with
expectations and deviations were relatively small in absolute terms (ex-one-offs), so we shouldnt expect material
revisions in consensus estimates from these results, aside from the inclusion of the Brazilian capital gain. Focus in the
conference call should be on outlook for the Liberalised unit (softer comparables in H2), Brazilian business (drought),
potential corporate actions (EDPR yieldco?), thoughts on the tariff deficit in Portugal (and potential securitizations) and
continued deleverage process.
Continued tough earnings momentum; unchanged view following results: EDP offers an appealing dividend
policy (5.3% DY16F), lower than sector operational risk (c. 85% EBITDA regulated) and a competitive generation
portfolio (72% CO2-free by 15F). Upside potential from further asset rotation (EDPR and Brazil) is a plus but relatively
high leverage, stretched profitability in Iberia and drought in Brazil justify some caution in the short term. The
underperformance YTD (+9% vs. PSI20 +20%) reflects those risks, together with increased regulatory risk perception,
but we believe there is no visibility about a reversal of the current adverse operational sentiment. The potential listing
of a yieldco in Spain by EDPR may be a positive trigger and could resume speculation about a possible delisting of EDPR
(share swap+cash?). REDUCE.

Refer to our note for details: https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80121

Repsol: 2Q15 Conference Call highlights

(Neutral; PT 20.15)
The main highlight goes to 2015 guidance provided in the Q2 presentation. A strategic plan presentation is scheduled for
Q4, after 3Q15 results.
2015 target EBITDA of 5-5.5bn considering an oil price scenario of USD 59/bbl and HH of USD 3. Talisman is
expected to contribute with an EBITDA of 800mn whilst downstream guidance was upgraded to 3.2-3.4bn (from 2.83bn previously). In our estimates, we expect FY15 EBTIDA at 5.2bn, including 650mn from Talisman and 2.8bn
from downstream. EBIT is targeted at c 2bn vs. BPIF 2.2bn, including USD 200mn losses from Talisman. CF in FY15
should be negative at 350mn ex-Talisman and 8350mn negative including Talisman.
Repsols dividend policy should be maintained, including the scrip option. The stake in GasNat is only an option for
divestment if needed to maintain investment grade.
Focussing on Capex containment: Upstream capex ex-Talisman will be reduced by 21% in 2015 (exploration capex cut
by 27% and Development capex by 15%). Capex in downstream should reach c 1bn this year due to the investments in
Peru. For 2015 and 2016, Repsol targets capex (incl. Talisman) in line with 2014 of cUSD 4.5bn. We were assuming
much higher levels of capex and will adjust it downwards.

Synergies and efficiency measures to allow c 500mn operating income improvement in 2016: The target for
synergies was increased from USD 220mn to USD 350mn (of which USD 70mn already executed). This, together with
efficiency measures are expected to allow a 500mn improvement in operating income in 2016. Repsol has detailed in
the conference call the impact of synergies and efficiency measures as follows: USD 280mn this year; USD 550mn in
2016; USD 700mn in 2017; USD 750mn in 2018.
No details on divestments yet: The agreement with rating agencies includes divestments of 1bn to be executed in the
next 15-16 months. No details on the geographies/projects have been advanced but the CFO added that a deal could be
announced ahead of the strategic presentation.
Integration of Talisman led to the recognition of USD 2.6bn of goodwill, of which USD 2.1bn are deferred tax liabilities
that Repsol believes to be supported by the synergies identified. Repsol has one year to adjust and refine the allocation.

Saeta Yield: 2Q15 operating results above expected

(Buy; PT 11.20)
Q2 EBITDA 4% above our estimates: Generation reached 391GWh vs our 421GWh forecast, of which 230GWh from
solar and 161GWh from wind. 1H revenues came at 113mn, of which 53mn from wind and 60mn from CSP. In the
quarter alone revenues reached 59mn, standing roughly in line with our estimates with the positive deviation in solar
offset by weaker figures in wind due to lower than expected generation. 1H EBITDA totalled 79mn, of which 37mn
from wind and 42mn from CSP. In Q2, EBITDA reached 42mn and stood 4% above our estimates (+ 1.6mn) due to
higher than expected revenues in CSP (investment incentives). Below the EBITDA line, non-recurrent financial gains of
29mmn negative in 1H due to a restatement of the derivatives restructuring accounted in Q1 ( 27mn positive in Q2)
distort comparisons. Excluding one-offs, financial results reached 10.2mn in Q2 alone vs. our 9.6mn forecast. Net
profit reached 6.9mn losses in 1H impacted by the derivatives restructuring or 14mn excluding one-offs vs 1mn
losses last year.
Net Debt down 26mn qoq: Net debt stood at 754mn at the end of June (5.0x ND/EBITDA), down 26mn qoq and
c2% below our estimates driven by the EBITDA deviation and a positive NWC contribution (8mn in 2Q15 vs 0mnF).
Total liquidity stands at 213mn by the end of June. Saeta is working on the financing of Casablanca and Valcaire
(currently in due diligence), which should be done at an all-in cost of 3.75-4.25%.
0.1747/sh quarterly dividend: in line with the groups target ( 57mn dividends per year in 2015/16), Saeta announced
the payment of a 0.1747/sh quarterly dividend ( 14.3mn) on August 28 th.
Dropdowns already in 2H? Saeta is down by 12% since the IPO, trading at a DY of 7.6%. The execution of the growth
strategy, through the ROFO agreements or third party acquisitions, is the main catalyst. The company has officially
announced that it expects the first acquisition in 2H15. Most of the growth should come from the ROFO agreements but
Saeta also expects to make third party acquisitions. Targeted third party acquisitions could generate a project CAFD of
13-15mn, which at a cash yield of 9.5-12.5% could imply an acquisition cost of 104-158mn. For acquisitions, Saeta has
a firepower of c 550mn (liquidity and non-distributed CAFD, refinancing of Casablanca and Valcaire as well as the
potential leverage of the Holdco), before resorting to capital markets.
Saeta
( mn)
1H15
1H15F
Revenues
112.7
112.0
Wind
53.0
53.6
Solar
60.1
58.2
Corp.
-0.4
0.1
EBITDA
79.2
77.6
Wind
37.0
37.3
Solar
42.4
39.3
Corp.
-0.2
1.0
EBITDA mg
70.3%
69.3%
EBIT
40.2
39.3
Fin. income
0.3
0.7
Fin. expense
-51.2
-78.0
EBT
-10.7
-38.0
Income Tax
3.8
11.5
Net Profit
-6.8
-26.5
Source: Saeta, BPI Equity Research (F)

Dev
1%
-1%
3%
ns
2%
-1%
8%
ns
1pp
2%
-57%
-34%
-72%
-67%
-74%

2Q15
58.8
25.1
34.2
-0.5
42.1
17.7
26.1
-1.7
71.6%
22.4
0.1
17.2
39.7
-11.2
28.5

2Q15F
58.1
25.7
32.3
0.0
40.5
18.0
23.0
-0.5
69.7%
21.5
0.5
-9.6
12.4
-3.5
8.9

Dev
1%
-2%
6%
ns
4%
-2%
14%
ns
2pp
4%
-80%
ns
ns
ns
ns

Bruno Silva, CFA / Flora Trindade, CFA / Gonzalo Snchez-Bordona

BACK TO INDEX

ENGINEERING & INFRASTRUCTURES

CTT: Q2 conference call confirms positive impressions
(Neutral; PT: Eur 9.90)
(+/=) Opex savings impact in P&L should accelerate with the positive impact of the Healthcare Plan and the new
Company Agreement to materialize in 2H15 and 2016 and the integration of Mail and E&P distribution network that
should be more evident during 2H15. We are forecasting a 2% drop in recurrent Opex in 2H15 vs. +0.5% in 1H15. CTT
reiterated the expectation of a LfL cut in FY15 rec. Opex (BPIF: -1%) and also over the coming years (at least in 2016/17
ex Postal bank).
(=) Negotiations with Altice will start after summer and CTT does not expect any potential benefits to be reflected this
year aside from the already known Eur 15mn upfront fee (cEur 5mn in 2H15), whilst the second tranche of Eur 15mn
should be accounted during the future agreement period (18 months to 3 years).
(=/-) Account receivables increase of Eur 15mn in 1H (and another Eur 15mn receivable from Altice) was mainly related
with higher than expected increase in mail, mostly large clients that have a higher collection period than the average
client. Reversion of WK in 2H will depend on the mail evolution.
(+) Mail Volumes: Better than expected mail volumes in 1H was the main responsible for the FY15 guidance revision.
FY15 mail volumes should stand in the LT range guidance closer to the low end of the range at -3% rather than the -5%
previously guided. Portuguese election in 2H could be also positive for mail volumes.
(=) E&P: Tourline (E&S in Spain): Restructuring process should be completed during the next couple of months. CTT
already provisioned Eur 1.9mn during 1H15 (to be cashed out in 3Q15). CTT expects a stronger 2H vs 1H. In 1H volumes
in Spain increased 2.7% yoy (+0.5% yoy in 1H Revenues) and for FY15 we are assuming a +0.3% in volumes (-0.7% in
revenues). Currently CTT reduced the franchises level to 60% in Spain vs. historical level of 80%. Regarding the business
in Portugal, the lower activity from banking clients is harming an otherwise visible growth in the remaining segments,
namely e-commerce. CTT remains focused on the optimization and integration of the distribution network to launch a
proper offer probably next year. The significant increase in workforce is mainly in temps to manage the changes taking
place in the Spanish structure.
(=) Postal Bank should be launched in two steps: Launching envisaged by YE15 on a two-phase branches rollout.
Soft opening promoting efficient processes and systems prior to the opening to the general public. CTT expect to do an
in-depth review of the indicative business plan previously disclosed considering the IT implementation, processes, twophase branches rollout, regulatory impacts and market conditions. Total set-up costs (Capex + Opex) reached Eur 10mn
in 1H15. Further information (including detailed business plan) to be provided at the CTT Capital Markets Day on 19
November. Performance of the new credit product (underperforming until now) should improve with the implementation of
the Postal bank but some changes of the offer could take place still this year to improve the performance.
(=) Dividends: CTT management reiterated that dividends will not be impacted by the Postal bank set-up costs. Dividend
policy continue to be a stable growth in dividend. Management said it was too early to make a stronger guidance on the
dividend growth on FY15 results despite the announced earnings guidance upgrade.

Cementos Portland: Q2 operating results below expected

(Reduce, PT: 7.35)
Cementos Portland Valderrivas (CPV) disclosed its Q2 results with sales reaching Eur 167mn, +13% yoy and just 1%
(Eur 2mn) below our estimates. Domestic revenues increased by 4% yoy and stood 2% (Eur 2mn) below our estimates
while international topline increased 17% and in line with expected. EBITDA came in at Eur 31mn, 16% or Eur 6mn
below our estimates. Excluding the CO2 sales (no sales made in 2Q15 vs. BPIF of Eur 2mn) EBITDA stood 10% (Eur
4mn) below also impacted by a new accounting criteria for the spending of the annual repair on the cement factories. Net
losses reached Eur 10mn vs. our forecast of Eur 1mn loss with a lower than expected quarterly EBIT (Eur 7mn below)
and higher financials (Eur 3mn above). Net Debt stood at Eur 1.36bn (-Eur 2mn qoq) and 1% (c.Eur 10mn) below our
estimates.

Cementos Portland
2Q15
( mn)
Sales
167
EBITDA
31
margin
18.6%
Depreciation
-17
Provisions and others
0
EBIT
15
margin
9.0%
Net Financial Results
-26
EBT
-11
Net profit
-10
Source: CPV and BPI (F, Dev.)

2Q14
149
34
22.8%
-18
1
17
11.4%
-24
-7
-7

yoy
13%
-8%
-4.2pp
-10%
n.s.
-11%
-2.4pp
n.s.
n.s.
n.s.

2Q15F
170
37
21.7%
-15
0
22
12.8%
-23
-1
-1

Dev.
-1%
-16%
-3.2pp
9%
n.s.
-31%
-3.8pp
11%
741%
643%

1H15
289
37
12.9%
-33
1
5
1.8%
-50
-45
-40

1H14
259.9
49.5
19.0%
-37
3
16
6.0%
-49
-34
-31

yoy
11%
-24%
-6.1pp
-11%
n.s.
-67%
-4.2pp
n.s.
n.s.
n.s.

1H15F
291
43
14.8%
-31
0
12
4.1%
-48
-36
-31

Dev.
-1%
-13%
-1.9pp
4%
n.s.
-56%
-2.3pp
5%
26%
29%

Preparing the capital increase: Cementos Portland AGM already approved a Eur 200mn capital (announced in March)
at Eur 6.5/sh with preferential subscription rights for existing shareholders to reinforce the current fragile capital structure
of the company. FCC, the main shareholder with 77.9%, already announced that will support the capital increase. The Eur
200mn will be used to repay the Eur 120mn subordinated loan made by FCC and the remaining Eur 80mn will be used to
repay outstanding debt. After this rights issue Cem. Portland ND/EBITDA15F should drop from 12.6x to 10.7x. Our
current FV of Cem. Portland stands at Eur 8.17/sh (Eur 7.35/sh including 10% small cap discount) with an implicit c.Eur
114/ton valuation. The main valuation driver for this story is the recovery of cement consumption in Spain (36% of FY14
revenues and 65% of installed capacity).
Revenues Breakdown by unit
( mn)
2Q15 2Q14
Spain
55
53
International
112
96
o.w.
US
62
48
Tunisia
22
21
UK
10
8
Others
18
19
Total
167
149
Source: CPV, BPI Equity Research

yoy
4%
17%

2Q15F
57
112

Dev.
-4%
0%

1H15
101
189

1H14
96
164

yoy
5%
15%

1H15F
103
188

Dev.
-2%
0%

28%
8%
24%
-3%
13%

63
21
10
19
170

-2%
5%
7%
-3%
-1%

99
42
19
29
289

78
43
14
28
260

26%
-3%
32%
4%
11%

100
41
18
30
291

-1%
3%
4%
-2%
-1%

Mota Engil: To sell a stake in Ascendi?

(Under Revision)
According to the press, Mota Engil and Novo Banco (the owners of Ascendi with 60% and 40% respectively) are currently
in the process to sell a stake in Ascendi of between 20% and 60% (BESI has already a mandate to look for potential
interested parties). The press added that the up to 60% stake to be sold should be made in two different blocks that
cannot be acquired by the same investor. (Press Release)
Comment: Its not the first time that the press mentioned that ME/Novo Banco could sell a stake in Ascendi. We have
Mota Engil Under Revision but in our last valuation (prior to the deal between Ascendi and Ardian) we were valuing
100% of Ascendi equity at Eur 181mn (including a Eur 539mn recourse Net debt at Ascendi holding level). Assuming the
implicit valuation in the deal announced between Ascend/Ardian for some Portuguese concessions, the valuation for
100% equity of Ascendi should increase to Eur 502mn (incl a Eur 239mn recourse net debt at Ascendi holding level).

Tecnicas Reunidas: confirms the award of the Al-Zour contract

(Buy; PT: 61.00)
Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE) announced that it has been awarded by the Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) the
Al-Zour contract worth USD4.1bn (c. Eur3.8bn) in consortium with Sinopec Engineering Group (China) and Hanwha
Engineering and Construction (S. Korea). The companys share in the consortium stands at 50%. (Company release)
Comment: the award of the Al-Zour project to TRE had already been reported in the press and this is the mere
confirmation from the company. The amount of the contract for TRE should stand at Eur1.9bn, broadly in line with the

figures previously advanced (c. Eur2.0bn), raising the companys YTD order intake to Eur3.7bn. We are estimating a
Eur4.25bn order intake for TRE in FY15.

TRE: better than expected results; cash drain in Q2

(E61.00 Price Target and Buy Recommendation maintained)
(Conf. call @ 13:00 CET)
Strong top line and higher than expected margins
Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE) delivered strong 2Q15 results with sales jumping by 30% yoy, reflecting the strong order intake
witnessed over recent years. The company performed 2% and 7% ahead of our and consensus estimates. EBITDA
expanded by 30% yoy, standing 5% and 8% ahead of our and consensus figures. Margins reached 5.5% (flat yoy), 10bps
ahead of our and consensus 5.4% estimates and slightly rising from 5.4% in 1Q15. Net profit improved by 9% yoy,
coming 2% below our forecasts due to lower than expected net financial income but standing 1% ahead of consensus
forecasts.
Eur1287mn order intake in 2Q15; Eur3.7bn YTD
TRE disclosed a Eur1287mn order intake in 2Q15 (Eur554mn in 1Q15) which together with the Eur1.8bn recently
awarded Al-Zour contract in Kuwait, raises the companys YTD order intake to Eur3.7bn. We are estimating Eur4.25bn
order intake for TRE in FY15 and the company seems well on track to reach our numbers. The backlog amounts to
Eur9032mn (Eur8454mn at the end of March15), covering 2.5x years of LTM sales.
Poor net cash
Net cash reached Eur436mn, falling from Eur570mn at the end of March15 and against Eur664mn at YE14. The
company should have collected no relevant pre-payments during the quarter while the execution of the large contracts
awarded over the last couple of years (now at the construction phase) has been consuming WK. We are estimating net
cash to reach Eur686mn by YE15 and should cut our estimates.
Strong delivery but more limited room for outperformance
TRE delivered another strong set of results at the operating level proving its operating resilience against the profit
warnings from main European peers. The backlog stands at all-time highs providing good visibility ahead and the
companys more defensive business profile should continue to support margins. Still, net cash remains subdue, the bulk
of positive news regarding new awards in 2015 has already come out and the stock does not seem cheap trading at
14.7x-13.6x PE16-17F, 35% ahead of peers, and in line with the historical EV/Backlog based on our LT Eur7.1bn
estimates. The market has been recognizing TREs best-in-class earnings and after the stock having gained 29% YTD
(+5% for peers) the lack of relevant triggers ahead leads us to see the room for outperformance more limited at this
stage.

Bruno Silva, CFA / Flora Trindade, CFA / Filipe Leite, CFA / Jos Rito / Bruno Bessa
BACK TO INDEX

FINANCIALS
Santander: Cutting estimates following 2Q15 release
(YE16 Price Target cut from 7.20 to 6.80; Neutral recommendation maintained)
- 2Q15 missed expectations: Excluding the 835mn gain from the reversal of a tax provision in Brazil, Santander
posted a 2Q15 NP of 1.7bn (+18%; flat qoq), coming below consensus on higher than expected tax rate and minorities.
NII (+12% yoy; +3% qoq) came slightly ahead of expectations despite the weak momentum in Spain (-3% qoq). During
the earnings presentation, management conveyed a cautious outlook for NII in Spain as the liabilities re-pricing effect is
done and loan volumes post a bleak performance. NPL net new entries declined 35% qoq driving the NPL ratio down to
4.64%, with asset quality improving throughout the group (except in Brazil and Mexico). The fully loaded CET1 ratio stood
at 9.8%, on track to meet the 10% targeted ratio at YE15.
- Trimming estimates and valuation: Following 2Q15 earnings, we cut bottom-line estimates by c. 5%, with Spain and
the US as the main drivers. We expect an adj. EPS CAGR14-18F of 8% and a ROTE of 11.5% by 2017, below the banks
12%-14% guidance. Despite the cut in estimates, the Spanish unit is paramount as it accounts for 39% of the expect
earnings growth in 2014-18. Our estimates stand 2% below consensus for the 2015-17 period. We reach a YE16 Price
Target of 6.80 (-6% vs the previous 7.20).
- Challenges ahead: Although asset quality improvements in Spain may offer positive surprises, top-line evolution comes
as a concern. The UK is a source of steady earnings stream but the current low CoR levels limit the upside. Brazil is a
revenant growth driver over the LT but the impact on asset quality from the countrys economy downturn comes a threat

to earnings in the ST. Despite the groups decent capital position, regulation also takes its toll on the P&L as the bank
guided towards 1bn of regulatory costs over the next 3 years. SAN is trading at 1.22 PTBV16 for a ROTE17-18 of c.
11.5%. We maintain a Neutral stance on the stock.
Link to report: https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80241

BBVA: Positive 2Q15 earnings

(10.55 YE16 Price Target and Neutral Recommendation maintained)
(Webcast presentation at 8:30, London time)
Provisions lead the beat while NII comes marginally above: BBVA posted a 2Q15 net profit of 1.2bn, with the
bank booking net gains of 144mn from the sale of a 6.3% stake in CNCB and Catalunya Caixa (CX) Badwill.
Excluding those one-off items NP stood at 1.1bn (+53% yoy; +13% qoq) coming 13% and 10% ahead of consensus
and BPIF, respectively. Lower than expected provisions and good trading gains were the main reasons behind the
better than expected figures. NII (+6% yoy; +3% qoq) stood slightly above expectations across most bossiness areas
with the exceptions of Rest of Asia, South America and the US. Asset quality brought no major surprises with NPL
ratio stable, with the exception of the increase in Turkey and Spain (driven by CX integration).
We see scope to raise estimates for the FY15: With NII performing better and lower funding costs translating to a
lower costs at the corporate centre and higher NII in Spain, we should raise our estimates for the FY15 while medium
term should be left unchanged. BBVA is trading at a PBV16 of 1.05, a PTBV16 of 1.29x and 10.2x on 2017
earnings.
Regulatory capital: The Fully Loaded CET1 ratio stood at 10.4% from 10.8% in the previous quarter as the bank
incorporated CX into its accounts. RWAs increased 2% qoq driven by CX integration. Pro-forma for Garantis
acquisition, FL CET1 ratio stood at 9.9% in June.
NII coming above expectations across most business areas: NII (+6% yoy, +5% qoq) came 1% above consensus
and roughly in line with BPIF. NII came ahead of expectations across all business areas, with the exception of the Rest
of Asia, South America and the US. Spains NII was up 5% qoq (+9% yoy; +3% excluding CX). In the Corporate
Centre NII performed much better than expected (-35% yoy; -26% qoq) benefiting from lower funding costs. The
groups NIM stood roughly unchanged at 2.22%. Euro denominated loans yields dropped 3bps qoq, and loans in
foreign currency yields rose 43bps qoq. The average yield on the groups bond portfolio decreased 11bps qoq. Euro
denominated deposits costs decreased 8bps qoq and foreign currency rose 13bps qoq. The cost of central and
interbank funding decreased 9bps and wholesale funding costs increased 2bps qoq.
NPLs moving down when adjusted for CX consolidation effect: NPL ratio at the group level stood at 6.5%, from
5.6% in the previous quarter with NPLs rising 14% qoq penalized by integration of CX. Excluding CX effect, NPLs
would be down 3% qoq. Net new entries decreased 5% qoq. Gross new entries were down 6% qoq while recoveries
declined also 6% qoq. NPL ratio rose in Spain (impacted by CX consolidation) and Turkey, while remaining stable
across the remaining business areas- NPL coverage increased from 65% in the previous quarter to 72% in 2Q15, with
improvements across all business areas with the exception of USA.
By business areas: Spains 315mn NP (+63% qoq; vs. 6mn a year earlier) was the main positive surprise, driven
NII (+5% qoq; +9% yoy) and Fee income (+14% qoq; +12% yoy) and higher than expected FX&Trading gains (flat
qoq; +65% yoy) while provisions came in line with expectations. The US NP also beat expectations driven on higher
than expected FX&Trading income (+10% qoq; +64% yoy) and other income and lower provision charges, while NII
disappointed. The corporate Centre came as a positive surprise, boosted not only by the one-offs gains but also by
lower funding costs. Mexicos NII came as a positive (+4% qoq; +18% yoy) but weaker fees and higher than expected
personnel expenses pushed the units NP below expectations. Turkey lagged expectations on a disappointing
performance in Trading income and higher than expected provisions. South America posted a weak top-line, driven by
a weak NII performance in Colombia and Peru and higher provisioning charges.
Link to report: https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80245

Popular: Neutral 2Q15 earnings

(4.75 YE16 Price Target and Reduce Recommendation maintained)
(Webcast presentation at 11:00, London time)

 Bottom line beat driven by trading and capital gains: Popular posted a 2Q15 NP of 97mn (+48% yoy; +6% qoq),
coming 6% and 3% above consensus and BPIF, respectively. Higher than expected trading gains and the 69.5mn
capital gain from the sale of lending and property assets servicing in were the main reasons behind the better than
expected bottom-line. NII (-3% yoy; flat qoq) came in line with expectations. Fees came 3% below expectations (-13%
yoy; flat qoq). Provisions were higher than expected as the bank took advantage of the good trading figures and the
capital gains to boost NPL coverage. There were also positive news on the asset quality as the bank booked 378mn
of net NPL recoveries in the quarter with NPLs down 2% qoq.
Neutral set of earnings, we do not expect meaning estimates. Although some fine-tuning is required to incorporate
the extraordinary capital gains and higher provisions, we do not expect meaningful changes in our estimates, while
consensus may move down: 1H15 earnings accounted for 50% of our estimate for the FY15 and for 44% of
consensus. Popular is trading at a PBV16 of 0.69x and PTBV16 of 0.84x, for a 7.7% ROTE17.
NII roughly in line: NII (-3% yoy LfL; flat qoq) came roughly in line with expectations. NIM was up 2bps qoq and
customer spread stood flat qoq. Average loans yields declined 13bps qoq. The avg retail funding cost was down
13bps qoq with term deposits new production at 0.47% in the 2Q (vs. a back book cost of 1.19%). The bonds portfolio
average yield declined 2bps qoq, while interbank and wholesale funding costs were down 9bps and 12bps qoq,
respectively.
FL CT1 ratio at 10.57%: phased-in CT1 ratio stood at 12.45% from 12.40% in the previous quarter. Fully loaded CT1
ratio stood at 10.57%, from 10.54% in March. RWAs were 1% up qoq.
Asset quality was a source of positive news: NPL ratio stood at 13.97% from 13.32% in previous quarter.
However, the rise in the ratio was driven by a 7% qoq decline in the denominator, as opposed to rising NPLs. NPLs
were down 2% qoq driven by the net NPL recoveries of 378mn in the quarter (from net NPL recoveries of 372mn in
1Q15). NPL coverage rose to 44% from 43% in 1Q15. Provisions (+3% qoq) came 11% above our estimates as the
bank opted to allocate the capital gains booked in the quarter to accelerate provisions and increase coverage levels.
Costs were down 6% yoy (flat qoq), coming 1% below our estimates but in line with consensus. Administrative
expenses were down 15% yoy (-3% qoq) and staff costs (+1% yoy; +2% qoq). C/I stood at 48%.
Link to report:
https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80250

Santander: Still interested in HSBC Brazil

(Neutral; PT 6.80)
Santander Brasil still in bidding process for HSBC unit in Brazil, the units CEO Jesus Zabalza said in 2Q earnings call.
(Bloomberg)
Comment: Neutral. Previous press reports suggested that Bradesco is the favorite bidder and any M&A scenarios
involving one of the Spanish banks seemed unlikely. However, should the acquisition risks resurface, the acquisition of
HSBC Brazil would make it difficult for Santander to comply with the target of a 10% FL CT1 ratio by YE15, unless the
deal is financed with a capital increase.
As of Dec14, HSBCs Brazilian unit posted Eur 120mn net losses (BRL 449mn). It had total assets of Eur 39bn (BRL
145.7bn), c. 3% and 6% of Santander and BBVA group total assets respectively, and 25% of Santander Brazil assets.
Loans to customers amounted to Eur 16.9bn (BRL 63.2) and deposits to Eur 16.5bn (BRL 61.6bn). Shareholders equity
amounted to Eur 2.8bn (BRL 10.5bn).
We estimate that the acquisition of HSBC at the Eur 3.6bn mentioned in previous press reports (implied PBV of 1.19x),
would have a negative impact of c. 55bps in Santanders fully loaded CET1 ratio, which stood at 9.8% in June.

BME: Solid set of 2Q15 Results

2Q15 Net Profit came broadly in line with expectations: BME posted a 44.5mn Net Profit in 2Q15, 2% and 1% lower than our
estimate (45.3mn) and consensus (44.9mn), respectively. This performance was mainly justified by lower than expected opex,
which partially offset worse than we expected revenues. We do not expect a major reaction to this set of results despite Equities
Division revenues coming 4% below consensus.
Equities Division Revenues up 8% yoy; 1% and 4% below our estimate and consensus: revenues rose backed by a 15% yoy
growth in equity trading volumes despite an 8% fall in the average trading yield. We were expecting a 7% fall in the average trading
tariff. Albeit this 2Q15, the tariff came roughly in line with our expectations, there is no detailed data available to justify the yield
evolution in the quarter, albeit it is usually connected with the retail/institutional, large/small & mid-caps trading mix as well as the
level of block trading and the number of trades. In its conference call BME usually provides some orientation to a potential
explanation but never the definite figures.

 Consolidated Revenues up 6% yoy; 4% and 2% below our estimates and consensus : with the exception of Clearing, all BME
Divisions performed worse than our expectations. Major deviations came from the Information and IT & Consulting Divisions. In both
Divisions we were expecting growth on top of the 2Q14 performance but performance came in line with 1Q15. Overall, 2Q15
Consolidated Revenues rose 6% yoy to 88.3mn and stood 4% and 2% below our estimates and consensus, respectively.
Opex under control: despite the impact of BMEs adaptation to the Clearing and Settlement infrastructure reform, opex rose 4%
yoy but came 9% and 2% below our estimates and consensus. Main deviation to our figures stood at the Information Division,
where we expected a stronger commercial effort.
EBITDA 2% lower than our estimates: BMEs 2Q15 EBITDA rose 7% yoy to 62.5mn, standing 2% below both our estimate
(63.9mn) and consensus (63.6mn), respectively. 2Q15 EBITDA margin (70.8%) improved by 0.6 p.p. yoy and came 1.4 p.p.
above our estimate.
1H15 Net Cash position at 334mn: BMEs Net Cash position decreased 18mn in 2Q15 as the company paid a 74mn dividend
(0.89 complementary DPS relative to FY14 results) in May. The company announced a 1 st interim DPS of 0.40 relative to FY15
results, in line with previous years.
BME Clearing authorised to operate in Equity and Interest Rate Derivatives: the Spanish market regulator (CNMV) authorised
BME Clearing to operate in the Equity and Interest Rate Derivatives segments. This concludes yet another step within Spain
Clearing and Settlement infrastructure reform. It also paves the way for BME to initiate conversations with the CNMV to potentially
distribute any freed capital to its shareholders in an extraordinary dividend following the application of the minimum capital
requirements to all its platforms. We expect this issue to be focussed on todays conference call at 12.00am GMT.

CaixaBank: 2Q15 earnings

(Not Rated)
CaixaBank disclosed a 2Q15 net profit of Eur 334mn (vs. Eur 375mn in 1Q15 and a NP of Eur 153mn a year before).
The main highlights of the quarter go: (1) NII down 1%; (2) Strong FX&Trading income in the quarter; (3) NPL net
recoveries in the quarter; (3) Stable capital ratios.
NII fell 1% qoq in the 2Q15 (+11% yoy) supported by the reduction in funding costs. NIM was up 1bp qoq, driven by a
12bps qoq decline in retail funding costs, while avg. loans yield fell 10bps in the same period. Time deposit front book
costs declined to 0.24% (0.36% in 1Q), which compares with a back book cost of 1.20% (1.21% in the 1Q). Wholesale
funding cost declined 11bps qoq.

Fees were flat qoq (+8% yoy) with AuM related commissions and insurance and pension plan fees driving the increase
(+15% qoq and +10% qoq respectively), while credit related fees are experienced a meagre 6% fall yoy.
Volumes: Total gross loans to customers stood flat qoq. On B/S customer resources increased 1% qoq with time
deposits falling 5% and sight deposits increasing 8% in the same period. Off-B/S clients resources were up 1% qoq with
mutual funds increasing 1% qoq. LTD decreased to 109% vs. 111% in March (107% excluding BB SAU).
Provisions on the quarter amounted to Eur 691mn (+4% qoq, -8% yoy). CoR came down to 88bps in the 2Q15, from
91bps during the previous quarter and 124bps a year before. NPL ratio stood decreased qoq to 9.0% from 9.7% in 1Q15
while the bank resume the net NPL recovery trend experienced during 2014. NPL coverage stood flat qoq at 54%.
Capital: (1) Fully loaded CT1 ratio stood flat qoq at 11.5% (2) Phased-in CT1 ratio stood at 12.8% (from 12.1% in March).
RWAs were down 4% qoq.
RE exposure: Loans to RE developers amounted to Eur 11.6bn (with a 51% coverage) representing 6% of the total loan
book. Foreclosed RE assets amounted to Eur 16.3bn (5% of total assets) and have a 57% coverage.

Carlos Peixoto
BACK TO INDEX

FOOD & RETAIL

Viscofan: slight 2Q15 earnings miss
(Reduce, PT 56.90)
Small miss at EBITDA but growth momentum remains strong, helped by FX: 2Q15 revenues increased 10.8% yoy
(+5.5% LfL ex-FX) to 191mn (2% below our est., -1% vs. cons.) benefiting from higher volumes and currency gains
(particularly the USD, impacting c.40% of revenues). Sales growth was primarily driven by emerging markets (Latin
America and Asia) but benefited also from some relative recovery in North America (-2.8% LfL in Q2 vs. -4.4% in Q1).
EBITDA rose 8.8% to 54mn (3% below est., -1% vs. cons.) with a 0.5pp margin drop to 28.3% (vs. 28.6%F) on some
pressure from raw material costs. Net profit rose 5.3% to 30mn (1% below est., -5% vs. cons.), while net debt increased
by 14mn qoq to 30mn (0.1x EBITDA LTM), 4mn more than our forecast on higher than expected WK.

No major changes in underlying business dynamics: the short term outlook for Viscofan remains supported by
growing global demand, a relatively benign raw materials environment, endogenous operational improvements and
currency tailwinds. Viscofan stated that it could surpass its FY15 earnings guidance (204-206mn EBITDA vs. our
216mnF, 215mn cons.) on the back of FX (eg. 1.20 EURUSD assumption vs. 1.12 average YTD). Still, raw materials
(potentially impacted by concurrent demand from other industries) and increased competition (on rising industry capacity)
could challenge the business landscape, as recently flagged by Shenguans profit warning in China.
Viscofan trades at 12.0x EV/EBITDA15F, at a 45% premium to its historical average, above its peer Devro (11.0x) and
close to our YE16 PT of 56.90. Inorganic growth/market consolidation could be positive catalysts ahead but rich
valuation levels are always more vulnerable to potential negative developments or expectation disappointments that
could arise from the evolution of input costs, market share, pricing power or FX (particularly the USD).
Link to our note on Viscofan 2Q15 results: https://www.bpiequity.bpi.pt/others/PDF.aspx?id=80122

Barn de Ley: 2Q15 EBITDA weaker than expected on margins

(Neutral, PT 92.80)

Sales up 2%, EBITDA down 15%: 2Q15 sales rose 2.2% yoy to 21.6mn (1% above expected) driven by growing
exports (51% of revenues), which offset a 0.8% decline in domestic market. EBITDA fell 15% yoy to 7.1mn (15% below
est.) on a margin erosion of 6.8pps to 33.0%. Net profit increased 5% to 6.7mn (8% above est.) helped by financial
results/FX gains. At the B/S, net cash rose 4% qoq to 122mn (in line with forecasted) with the EBITDA miss being
compensated by better working capital.
Sluggish domestic market and poorer than expected mix: we stay concerned with the domestic sales evolution,
apparently not capturing the ongoing recovery in private consumption in Spain (sign of increased competition?). Margins,
on the other hand, continue hampered by raw material costs and an increased weight of wholesale, young and white
wines in the sales-mix. Although the 2H of each year is traditionally stronger than 1H, our current FY15 EBITDA estimate
of 31mn (35.3% margin) is at risk. Barn de Ley has a solid business model and a very sound B/S (with net cash
representing 30% of market cap), but earnings momentum is faltering and the stock does not look cheap, trading at 8.2x
EV/EBITDA15F (pre-earnings revision) with no upside to our YE16 PT of 92.80 (incl. a 10% liquidity discount).

Jos Rito / Manuel Coelho / Bruno Bessa / Guilherme Sampaio, CFA

BACK TO INDEX

HEALTHCARE
Rovi: highlights from 2Q15 results conference call
(Reduce; PT Eur 16.40)
Rovi 2Q15 results was mainly focussed on enoxaparins biosimilar potential approval process albeit with little details
coming out due to the confidentiality of the issue and on the agreement announced yesterday with Merus to distribute and
manufacture Sintrom.
Enoxaparin process: several questions on this theme, namely what type of objections and questions did EMA raise and
whem would Rovi be filing for registry in the US. However, given the confidentiality of the registry processes both in
Europe and in the US, Rovi did not advance much. Rovi is currently preparing the response to EMA list of questions but
did not give a timeframe for delivering it. We recall that whenever EMA raises questions the timeline of the process stops,
thus delaying it a bit further. Additionally, Rovi stated that it expects enoxaparin biosimilar players already in the US
market to enter the European market while defending its competitive advantage due to its vertical integration. In our
estimates we expect Rovi to start comemrcialisation of enoxaparin in Europe in 2017 and the US market in 2018. In
Europe we expect Rovi to directly commercialise the product and reach a 15% market share while in the US we expect
Rovi to reach an agreement with a US partner and receive royalties for the sale of the product, which we expect to reach
a 10% market share.
Agreement with Merus: it can be divided into two separate parts (1) Rovi will provide Merus with manufacturing and
packaging services of Sintrom for 5 years to supply Portugal and Spain. Sintrom is a product indicated for the treatment
and prophylaxis of thromboembolic disorders. Rovi expects to produce 7-8mn units of Sintrom/year. Rovi expects to
receive authorisation from the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Health Products (AEMPS) to start manufacturing
Sintrom in 2H16; and (2) Rovi will provide Merus logistics and distribution services of Sintrom in Spain. The contract is for
1 year, renewable each year. Sintrom currently sells c.Eur 12mn in Spain while EBITDA margin should stand at c.10%,
since the agreement only implies logistics services. We still have to include this new agreement in our estimates.

Tiago Veiga Anjos, CFA

BACK TO INDEX

TELECOMS, MEDIA & TECHNOLOGY

IDR: Weak set of results and little visibility for the 2H
(Reduce; PT 9.00)
Indra has presented Eur 706.7mn revenues 5.5% down yoy, 1.5% below our numbers and 1.3% below consensus.
Recurrent EBIT was negative in the quarter of Eur 28mn standing below our and consensus flattish estimate. Net profit
stood at Eur -416mn with deviations mainly explained by deviations at EBIT level and higher non-recurrent than the
company had advanced in the Investor Day (Eur 422mn vs. Eur 395mn). Net debt increased by Eur 83mn in the quarter
to Eur 825mn, equivalent to 5.9x LTM recurrent EBITDA. The company did want to provide any guidance for the FY as
still sees some challenges and uncertainties in some contracts. The little visibility provide for the 2H coupled with the
gloomy set of results in Q2 reduces confidence on how IDR will make the bridge between the current depressed margins
and the targets provided for 2018. We expect a negative reaction to this set of results mostly due to low visibility
and uncertainty regarding short term outlook that reduces confidence on mid-term targets.
Recurrent EBIT in the quarter stood at Eur -28mn vs. Eur 57mn in 2Q14 and below our estimate of Eur 11mn and
consensus of Eur 6mn. The company states that EBIT was penalized by Eur 24mn in the quarter related with elections
contracts booked in 2014 and Overruns in Brazil and Lithuania. Excluding this effects recurrent EBIT would have been
still negative in the 2Q of the year.
IDR had already announced it would book non recurrent costs amounting to Eur 395mn, o.w.Eur 266mn provisions
and Eur 135mn goowill impairments and capitalized tax credits. The number recorded in the quarter was slightly higher at
Eur 422mn with the following breakdown: 1) Provisions, impairments, and overruns of Eur 266mn; 2) Impairment of
Goodwill of Eur 101mn; 3) Impairment of Intangible assets of Eur 7mn; 4) Impairment of Tax credit of Eur 32mn and; 5)
Efficiency improvement costs of Eur 17mn. The detail by nature of the Eur 266mn is as follows: 1) Inventories Eur 89mn;
2) Clients Eur 78mn; 3) Onerous provision Eur 98mn. Therefore only Eur 98mn are related with future losses in projects
being executed and the company hinted that around eur 40mn of this will be used in the 2H of the year leading to the
conclusion that only Eur 58mn of this provision will be impacting positively margins going forward.

IDR did not provide a guidance for the FY15 as still sees some challenges and uncertainties in some contracts. The
lack of visibility for the 2H difficult the exercise of setting up a base to make the bridge to 2018 targets and reduces
confidence on the company ability to meet them. Despite not providing any guidance, the company said it expect margins
to improve materially for the 2H and positive CF generation. Moreover, the company anticipates a strong 2H for Spain
with the probability of being awarded the elections and 3 to 4 projects in Security & Defence and in Transport & Traffic.
The company also advanced that Argentina elections (already awarded) plus Spain elections (still not awarded) should
contribute with Eur 45mn revenues in the 2H. For Latam is where the company sees bigger risks and expect a clear
slowdown in the region.
Indra 2Q15 Results
2Q15

BPI

Dev.

Consensus

Dev.

Revenues

706.7

717.3

-1.5%

715.9

-1,3%

Rec. EBIT

-28.2

11.4

n.s.

5.8

n.s.

Rec. EBIT mg

-4.0%

1.6%

n.s.

0.8%

n.s.

Net Income

-416.1

-319.5

30.2%

-309.6

34.4%

Source: Bloomberg, Company Data & BPI Equity Research

CFN: Neutral to positive 2Q15 set of results

(Buy; PT 1.20)
Cofina registered in the 2Q revenues of Eur 26.6mn slightly above our estimates but down 33% yoy caused mainly by the
drop of advertising revenues (-16% yoy) due to the World Cup effect, while circulation revenues stayed flat yoy and other
revenues rose 29% yoy and ahead of our estimates triggered by the good performance of CMTV. The operating costs
declined 2%yoy which led an EBITDA of Eur 3.7mn slightly ahead of our estimates, with newspapers beating our
numbers while magazines posting a negative contribution to the margin.
Financial results came flattish yoy but ahead of our estimates, and income taxes were up considerably, leaving a net
profit of Eur 1.3mn, -44% down and behind our estimates which contrasts with the Eur 2.3mn registered last semester
As of June 30th, 2015, the nominal net debt of Cofina amounted to Eur 66.6mn, which corresponds to a decrease of Eur
1mn qoq or Eur 6mn of CF generation during the 1H, having paid last April dividends for Eur 2.05mn. We expect the
company to generate Eur 7mn CF in 2015, so we dont estimate any hurdles in reaching out target. We expect a neutral
reaction from the market.
As of June 30th, 2015, the nominal net debt of Cofina amounted to Eur 66.6mn, which corresponds to a decrease of Eur
1mn qoq or Eur 3mn of CF generation in the 2Q, having paid last April dividends for Eur 2.05mn
We expected the company to generate Eur 7mn CF in 2015, and so far in the 1H the company has generated Eur 6mn
which could mean some upside risks to our FY estimate. We expect a neutral to positive reaction from the market.
Cofina Consolidated 2Q15 Results
(Eur mn)
Total Revenues
Newspapers
Magazines
Revenues by source

Total Operating Costs

EBITDA
Newspapers
Magazines
EBITDA Mg
Depreciation
EBIT
EBIT Margin
Financial Results
Income Tax & Minorities

2Q15

BPI

Dev.

26,6
21,2
5,4
26,6
Circulation
13,2
Advertising
9,2
Others
4,2
22,8
3,7
3,8
-0,1
14,1%

2Q14
27,3
22,2
5,1
27,3
13,2
10,9
3,3
23,4
4,0
4,0
0,0
14,5%

Chg
-3%
-5%
5%
-3%
0%
-16%
29%
-2%
-6%
-4%
n.s
-3%

26,4
21,3
5,1
26,4
13,0
10,0
3,3
22,7
3,7
3,5
0,1
13,9%

1%
-1%
7%
1%
1%
-8%
25%
1%
2%
8%
-164%
1%

0,7
3,0

0,7
3,2

-3%
-6%

0,7
2,9

0%
3%

11,3%
-1,2
-0,6

11,8%
-1,2
0,2

-4%
1%
n.s

11,1%
-0,7
-0,6

2%
58%
-13%

Net Profit

1,3

2,3

-44%

1,6

-17%

Source: Cofina, BPI Equity Research (Dev.,

Estimates)

NBA: Good operational results of the 2Q, but weak on CF

(Reduce; PT2.85)
Novabase presented for this 2Q with revenues of Eur 59mn, 8% up yoy and ahead of our estimates with the international
expansion as the main driver (+30% growth yoy in 1H15 , plus accounting for the 44% of the revenues pie). The three
divisions posted positive growth with business solutions up 16% and ahead of our estimates, IMS stayed flat yoy and
behind our estimates. Along with the internalization of the business lines, the company is focusing its strategy in services,
which expanded in the 1H a 25% yoy , accounting so far more than the 80% of total turnover of the semester.
At EBITDA level, this quarter NBA booked Eur 3.7mn, 31% up yoy and 7% ahead of our expectations due to the
pronounced margin of the IMS division partially explained by a reversion of the mix product/services focusing now in
services (46%). On the other hand, business division disappointed with a strong fall, feeling the costs associated to the
international expansion strategy. Despite the business division miss, the EBITDA is within the range of the annual
guidance. The restructuring measures aiming to improve competitiveness seems to be already fruitful.
The company presented positive financial results of Eur 253k and the good operational delivery led NBA to increase the
net profit to Eur 1.5mn from the Eur 0.2mn registered in 2Q14, way ahead of our estimate.
Regarding the net cash, in the 1H the company registered Eur 6.4mn, which implies a decrease of Eur 8.6mn qoq,
explained partially by the dividend payment of Eur 0.9mn ( Eur 0.03/share) and the non-controlling interest payment which
amounted Eur 0.4mn, which shows a poor cash conversion, burning in the quarter Eur 7.3mn. However the company is
not concerned and they expect to revert the trend in the following quarters.
The company reiterated the guidance for 2015, although acknowledging the uncertainty prevailing in some of the markets
in which it operates. We expect a neutral reaction from the market.
Novabase 2Q15 Results
(Eur mn)
Total Turnover

2Q15

2Q14

Chg

BPI

Dev.

58,8
1,1
30,4
27,4

54,4
0,8
26,3
27,3

8%
35%
16%
0%

57,6
1,2
27,6
28,8

2%
-11%
10%
-5%

3,7
0,0
1,3
2,4

2,8
0,0
2,0
0,7

31%
n.s
-37%
n.s

3,4
0,1
2,2
1,1

7%
n.s
-42%
123%

EBITDA Mg

6,2%

5,1%

1,1pp

5,9%

5%

Depreciation & others

EBIT
EBIT Margin
Financial Results

-1,3
2,4
4,0%

-1,7
1,1
2,1%

0,3
-0,8
-0,3

-0,3
-0,4
-0,3

-21%
n.s
2,3pp
n.s

-1,3
2,1
3,6%
-0,4

-3%
14%
12%
n.s

n.s
n.s

-0,4
-0,5

n.s
-51%

1,5

0,2

n.s

0,8

93%

Venture Capital
Business Sol.
IMS
EBITDA

Venture Capital
Business Sol.
IMS

Taxes
Minorities
Net Income
Source: Novabase, BPI Equity Research (F)

Pedro Oliveira
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TRAVEL & LEISURE

Amadeus: solid 2Q15 results in line with estimated
(Neutral; PT 39.00)

(Conference call at 13.00 CET; +44 203 147 4607)

Results in line with our estimates: Amadeus net profit (+7% yoy) came in line with our estimates and 2% below
consensus following an EBITDA delivery also in line with forecasted. Net debt (-2% qoq) stood 5% above our forecasts, at
1646mn (1684mn in 1Q15), with the gap to our estimates being mainly explained by higher than expected working
capital.
Earnings growth supported by ITS arm with rising NBUs contribution: Amadeus consolidated sales increased by
14% in 2Q15 benefiting from a good performance of all its business divisions, including a growing contribution from New
Business Units (NBUs).
The Distribution arm delivered a 12% revenues increase driven by: i) a healthy traffic growth (+6% yoy, partially offset
by a 1pp disintermediation effect); ii) some market share gains (42.1% vs. 40.7% in 2Q14, with Amadeus air bookings
increasing 8% yoy vs. 5% of industry), due to the migration of Topas and Orbitz; and iii) slightly higher revenue/booking,
with FX gains (USD strength) more than offsetting the impact of the higher weight of domestic bookings. Contribution
margin in 1H15 declined 1.3pp yoy to 44.7%, driven by an adverse FX impact and a tough competitive environment on
incentive payments.
IT Solutions posted an 21% turnover increase, supported by i) the rise in PBs (+7%), with the scheduled airlines
migration complementing the solid traffic evolution in the quarter (+6%); ii) 12% higher average fee/PBs due to the
positive effect from the upselling of its new modules (mainly DCS, revenue accounting and revenue management
solutions), and iii) a growing contribution from NBUs (mostly Airport IT and Payments). Contribution margin in 1H15
dropped 3.4pp yoy to 65.0% due to an adverse FX impact.
At the consolidated level, EBITDA (adjusted for non-recurrent items and PPA amortization) advanced by 11%, with
margins showing some dilution vs. 2Q14 (39.4% vs. 40.6%) due to a negative FX impact. At the bottom line, Net profit
(adjusted for non-recurrent items and PPA amortization) increased by 11%, showing an evolution in line with EBITDA, as
the higher D&A was offset by FX gains.
Conference call to focus on GDS competition and NBUs developments: Amadeus will hold a conference call at 1pm
CET, where it should provide additional visibility on new developments in ITS, such as: i) prospects for new airline
agreements; ii) further details on Navitaire integration; and iii) developments of the works across NBUs, namely in Hotel IT
(following the conclusion the initial phase of its agreement with InterContinental and Itesso acquisition), and Airport IT
(after AirIT acquisition and the agreements for A-CDM implementation in Munich and London Gatwick as well as ACUS in
Avinor Group). On the other hand, we expect Amadeus to comment on i) the evolution of disintermediation trends (some
questions on the impact of Lufthansa decision to impose a 16 surcharge on GDS sourced bookings should arise); and ii)
the competitive environment in European GDS arena, in regard of the expansion plans being carried out by Sabre.
Neutral stance reiterated: we reiterate our Neutral stance in Amadeus following this set of results as i) performance was
relatively aligned with our expectations; ii) Amadeus is trading richly at 13.4x EV/EBITDA and 23.0x P/E 2015 F; and iii)
underlying catalysts for the investment case should be more medium than short-term biased.

IAG: reassuring 2Q15 results, FY15 guidance reiterated

(Buy; PT 11.15)
(Conference call at 9.00 GMT; +44 203 427 1909; Passcode: 5557821)
EBIT above our estimates and consensus: EBIT (pre-exceptional items) rose 39% yoy to 530mn (9% above our
estimates, +7% vs. consensus). Most of the operating data had already been disclosed, with the major news standing on
passenger yield behaviour (5.1% yoy growth) and on the cost structure (EBIT margin rose from 7.5% to 9.4%). Yields
stood 0.9% below our estimates, while EBIT margin figured relatively above, due to higher than expected cost savings
(CASK fuel increased 3.2%, vs our estimates of +3.5%), with CASK ex-fuel rising by 3.3%, vs our estimates of +5.3%.
Profit after taxes reached 358mn, standing 28% above our estimate on a better than expected operating delivery.
FX supporting unit revenues but offsetting cost savings: as expected, translation losses with the 13% GBP
appreciation have mostly offset the savings impact related to the efficiency measures being carried out in British Airways
and Iberia, namely in terms of employees costs. On the other hand, the c.17% fuel price decline (after hedging), together
with some increases in aircraft efficiency levels (2% lower fuel burn/ASK), was more than compensated by the 24% USD
appreciation, leading to an overall increase in fuel bill. On passenger revenues, IAG posted a 10.9% increase, driven by
a 5.5% ASK growth and higher passenger unit revenues (5.1%), with the negative impact of Easter timing offset by a
stronger GBP and USD (+24% yoy). Cargo activity has posted some recovery (+8.8% revenue advance), as well as other
revenues (+17.6%). Overall, BA contributed with 453mn to the EBIT figure while Iberia and Vueling accounted for 51mn
and 24mn, respectively.
FY15 EBIT guidance (>2.2bn) reiterated: IAG said that it continues on track to achieve its FY15 earnings guidance.
Based on the current fuel price and foreign exchange levels, IAG reiterates that it expects to achieve a FY15 EBITDA of
over 2,200mn (vs. our 2.200mnF). We will be focused on any further colour on the outlook that the company may

provide at the conference call (at 9.00am GMT) as well as on any details over Aer Lingus acquisition and developments
on new airline agreements (namely with Qatar Airways and LATAM).
Buy recommendation reinforced: we believe this set of results should be well received by the market, especially
considering that most of the 810mn operating improvement in FY15 was scheduled to take place in 2H15. On the other
hand, Q2 results reinforce our positive stance in IAGs investment case, supported on our belief that the earnings outlook
remains promising, mostly driven by the restructuring efforts undertaken across the group, the companys premium
market positioning and significant fuel savings. Aer Lingus integration (we expect further details on this matter to be
announced in the next Capital Markets Day, in November) and a deeper partnership with Qatar Airways or LATAM are
potential triggers ahead. In this sense, we reiterate our Buy recommendation for a YE16 Price Target of 11.15.

Manuel Coelho / Guilherme Sampaio, CFA

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OTHERS
SONC: 2Q15 results unveil the sale of real estate assets
(E0.67 Price Target and Buy Recommendation maintained)
Broadly stable sales deeds in Troiaresort
Sonae Capital (SONC) released its 2Q15 results with sales rising by 3% yoy, 1% ahead of our estimates, supported by
better than expected performance of the Energy and Hotels arms, despite the poorer evolution of Sistavac. Troiaresort
delivered 8 sales deeds (vs. 8 BPI F), broadly in line with the 9 booked in 1Q15 and ahead of the 6 from 2Q14. The
company has registered 12 promissory purchase agreements and reservations. We are estimating 40 new sales deeds in
FY15, which we deem achievable at this stage.
Underlying EBITDA broadly in line
EBITDA (including provisions for guaranteed payment in Troiaresort) reached Eur9.6mn, against our Eur4.2mn forecasts
and Eur4.1mn in 2Q14. SONC sold Eur10mn non-core real estate assets (Duque de Loul) in 2Q15 booking c. Eur6mn
one-off gains which explain the deviation to our numbers. Excluding this one-off, EBITDA came broadly in line with our
forecasts, witnessing a mere -Eur0.6mn deviation due to a worse than expected performance of Sistavac.
SONC registered Eur3.1mn net profit against Eur2.4mn losses in 2Q14. SONC booked higher than expected D&P and
net financials (including results from equity accounted subsidiaries) but the positive impact from the sale of real estate
explains the deviation at the bottom line (Eur2.0mn net losses BPI F).
Duque de Loul and Imosede driving strong net debt reduction
Net debt stood at Eur201mn falling by Eur28mn (30% of the market cap) qoq. SONC benefited from a Eur10mn cash-in
from the sale of non-core real estate assets and Eur20.1mn related with the sale of a 13.5% stake in Imosede at market
prices. Excluding these one-offs, net debt increased by Eur2.1mn qoq to Eur231mn due to a seasonally weaker period in

terms of WK (net debt increased by Eur8mn qoq in 2Q14). We are forecasting net debt to decline by Eur9mn FY15 to
Eur226mn (ex-Duque de Loul and Imosede) and believe that the company is on track to meet our expectations.
Duque de Loul sold at a premium to C&W?
SONC did not provide visibility on whether Duque de Loul has been sold ahead of C&W valuation. Considering the
prime location of this asset we believe that it has been sold at some premium and recall that we are attributing a 15%
discount to C&W real estate valuation. Still, considering the small size of the deal (2% of our total EV) we expect no
material impact in our fair valuation.
Triggers being unveiled
One of SONCs main short term triggers has been unveiled with the company managing to start selling non-core real
estate assets at good prices during the quarter. This together with the continuous sale of Imosede (7.5%, Eur11.2mn still
pending) allowed a strong net debt reduction which we expect to trigger the stock price performance.
SONC accumulates a 44% YTD gain but the stock remains fundamentally cheap, trading at 0.4x PBV (ex-intangibles),
62% below the market NAV. The disposal of Duque de Loul signals the reactivation of the real estate market and could
potentially be the first step towards further deals. The sale of Norscut should also be a trigger this year. BUY.

Prosegur: 2Q15 conf. call highlights

(Neutral, PT 5.90)
(=/-) Net debt: cash flow in 2Q15 was impacted by c.30mn incremental capex related to investments in the alarms
business (c.15mn) and real estate in Argentina, which raises some upside risks to our FY15 net debt estimate. Prosegur
is confident about working capital evolution in the remainder of the year.
(=/-) 2015 EBIT margin: Prosegur expects EBIT margin in FY15 to be at least similar/slightly higher than 2014. This could
entail some downside to our current 8.6% estimate (vs. 8.1% in 2014).
(=) Business outlook: Prosegur provided a generally positive message for the European market with the exception of
France, where the ongoing client-portfolio optimization in the guarding business should continue to lead volume losses
until YE15. We note the Q2 revenue growth in Spain (+3% yoy, +11% qoq), where the company has been gaining new
contracts. Also, a new labour agreement (2015-16) has been signed with a 2.5% wage increase. Regarding Latin
America, Prosegur is cautious for Brazil (Q2 revenues -9% yoy) where is also facing some delays in passing-through
labour inflation costs. For Argentina (Q2 revenues +c.50%, 40% LFL), the company is confident that it will continue to
benefit from rising volumes and higher prices although it acknowledged some uncertainty related to the new political
landscape that may emerge from the next Presidential elections next October. In terms of business segments, Prosegur
stated that it has been gaining market share in the alarms business, while considering that there is still significant growth
upside as many geographies remain underpenetrated.
(=) Corporate activity/M&A potential: the company denied once again recent news about the possibility of selling part of
its CIT business, stating, on the other hand, that it continues studying inorganic growth opportunities.

Jos Rito / Manuel Coelho / Tiago Veiga Anjos, CFA / Bruno Bessa / Guilherme Sampaio, CFA
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MACRO & STRATEGY

Spain: 2Q15 GDP increased 1.0% qoq
Spains GDP growth rate accelerated to the strongest level of the last eight years. 2Q15 GDP rose 1.0% qoq, compared
to 0.9% in 1Q15. On an annual basis, 2Q15 GDP increased 3.1% from 2.7% yoy in the previous quarter.

Spain: HCPI fell 0.1% yoy in July

According to the National Statistical Office (INE) preliminary figures, Spains Harmonised CPI fell 0.1% yoy in July
compared with 0.0% in the previous month.

Portugal: consumer confidence increased to -19.0 in July

Consumer Confidence in Portugal climbed to -19.0 in July from -20.0 in June, reaching the highest value since April 2002.
This increase in confidence reflects better perspectives regarding unemployment (9.4 in July vs. 12.4 in June) coupled
with improved households income (-10.0 in July vs. -10.4 in June) and economic situation (-9.7 vs. -10.1) expectations.
The Economic Climate Indicator also increased to 1.4 in July from 1.3 in June.

Portugal: industrial production declined 1.3% mom in June

Industrial Production declined 1.3% mom in June, compared with a revised 1.7% mom rise in May. On an annual basis,
Industrial Production recorded a 2.7% increase in June, after a 3.5% yoy growth in May.

Portugal: retail sales increased 2.4% yoy in June

Retail Sales in Portugal increased 2.4% yoy in June, accelerating from +1.8% yoy in May.

Portugal: unemployment rate stood at 12.4% in June

According to the National Statistical Office (INE) estimates, Portugals June preliminary Unemployment Rate stood at
12.4%, unchanged when compared with the final figure for May (downwardly revised from the preliminary 13.2%). The
number of unemployment people (seasonally adjusted) in June stood at 636.4k (broadly unchanged from 635.1k in May),
while the number of persons employed (seasonally adjusted) declined slightly to 4492.7k (vs. 4494.7k in May).

Greece: internal Syriza referendum on bailout while IMFs participation in bailout remains in
doubt
Yesterday in a Syriza Central Committee meeting, the partys leader and Prime-Minister, Mr. Alexis Tsipras, called an
internal referendum on the countrys new bailout agreement. This move follows Syryzas Left Platform faction demands to
abandon talks with international creditors and hold an ordinary party congress to determine Syrizas position. The vote
should take place in two days.
Meanwhile, the IMFs Board has been told in a staff presentation that Greece high debt levels and poor record of
implementing reforms disqualify it form a 3rd IMF bailout. This means that while IMF staff will participate in ongoing bailout
negotiations, the IMF should not decide whether to agree on a new program or not in the short-term. A final decision
could potentially take months and even slide to 2016. (Ekathimerini, FT)

Eurozone: economic sentiment increased to 104.0 in July

Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone rose to 104.0 in July from 103.5 in June and ahead of the consensus 103.3
forecast, as sentiment in industry, services and retail trade improved. In the EU as a whole, Economic Sentiment climbed
to 106.6 in July compared with 105.5 in June.

Eurozone: consumer confidence fell to -7.1 points in July

Confirming the preliminary data released in the beginning of the month, Consumer Confidence in the Eurozone fell to -7.1
in July from -5.6 in June.

Germany: unemployment rate stood at 6.4% in July

Unemployment Rate in Germany remained unchanged for the 4th consecutive month at 6.4% in July.

Germany: HCPI increased 0.1% yoy in July

HCPI in Germany increased 0.1% yoy in July compared with +0.3% in June. On a monthly basis, the HCPI expanded
0.3% in July, from -0.2% in June.

US: 2Q15 GDP rose 2.3%

US GDP growth rate accelerated to 2.3% in 2Q15 on an annualized basis. This compares with an upwardly revised 0.6%
growth rate in 1Q15 (in the previously published estimates for Q1, GDP was estimated to have decreased 0.2%).
Nevertheless, released figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis were slightly below analysts expectations of a
2.5% growth. 2Q15 growth reflected positive contributions from private and public consumption, exports, inventories and
fixed investment, while imports increased.

US: consumer spending increased 2.9% in Q2

Consumer spending in the US (which stands for more than two-thirds of the US economy) increased 2.9% qoq in 2Q15
from 1.8% in 1Q15.

US: initial jobless claims increased to 267k in the week ended July 26
The number of application for initial jobless benefits increased to 267k in the week ended July 26 (vs. 255k in the previous
week). Despite this increase, jobless claims figures remained at low historical levels.

TODAY, WE HIGHLIGHT
Government presents 2016 Budget Proposal and Current Account (May) in Spain; Unemployment Rate (June) and
Preliminary CPI (July) in Eurozone; Consumer Confidence - Michigan University (July) and Employment Cost (2Q15) in
the US.

Tiago Veiga Anjos, CFA / Macro Research Department

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KEY CORPORATE EVENTS

CORPORATE EVENTS / EARNINGS DISCLOSURES
Com pany
FCC
BBVA
CaixaBank
Tecnicas Reunidas
Popular
Altri
Corticeira Amorim
Liberbank
Sonae
Portucel
Semapa
Mota Engil
Inditex
Santander
Ferrovial
Bank Millennium
Vidrala
Ebro Foods
DIA
Ferrovial
Santander
Portucel
Sonae Capital
BBVA
Semapa

Event
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
2Q15 Results
Investor day
ETR-407 3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results
3Q15 Results

DIVIDENDS
Date
31-Jul
31-Jul
31-Jul
31-Jul
31-Jul
31-Jul
3-Aug
5-Aug
19-Aug
26-Aug
28-Aug
31-Aug
16-Sep
23-24 Sep
22-Oct
27-Oct
28-Oct
28-Oct
28-Oct
29-Oct
29-Oct
29-Oct
29-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct

Com pany
Ebro Foods
Amadeus
Melia Hotels
Ebro Foods
Inditex
Viscofan
Ebro Foods

GDPS
0.17
0.36
0.04
0.17
0.26
0.48
0.15

Ex-dividend Date
29-Jul
30-Jul
10-Aug
2-Oct
3-Nov
17-Dec
22-Dec

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CONTACTS & DISCLAIMER

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