Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Energy Security
28.1.
Introduction
Energy is the lifeline of economic development but unfortunately Pakistan lacks integrated
National Energy Security Plan for the 21st century. While preparing the MTDF 2005-10 for
the energy sector, a long term view has been taken in the context of energy security
requirement for the next 25 years. World and regional energy comparison of some of the
salient energy indicators is given in Table 1 below.
Table 1
World and Regional Energy Comparison, 2004
World
Pakistan
India
Bangladesh
China
Malaysia
Population (Million)
6393
159
1086
141
1300
25.6
8200
2100
2200
1900
5000
9000
1.55
0.30
0.32
0.11
0.91
2.17
2657
581
561
145
1484
3500
Import Dependence
n.a.
24%
18%
21%
1%
-53%
(exporter)
47
35
31
24
13
13
WORLD
26
Pakistan
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
China
SaudiArabia
Japan
6
Iran
10
27
Bangladesh
27
UK
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
USA
MBtu
28.2.
The Context
Worldwide, over the last few decades, there have been few new oil discoveries while
the oil production has been going up. The increasing energy demand and limited crude oil
availability has resulted in a shift in both exploration and production activities towards gas.
The short to medium term strategy to meet energy demand and long term strategies of
energy supplies worldwide are illustrated in the Fig 2&3.
Fig 2: Short to Medium Term Strategy
The countrys primary energy mix (2003-04) in comparison to regional and other
countries is given in Table 2 and Fig 4.
Table 2
Primary Energy Mix by Country 2003-04
Pakistan India
Malaysia
UAE
UK
USA
(%)
Canada China*
Oil
30.0
35.0
42.0
32.0
35.0
40.0
30.0
23.8
Natural Gas
50.0
7.0
51.0
68.0
35.0
23.0
27.0
2.6
Coal
6.5
55.0
4.0
16.0
23.0
24.0
67.0
Others
(Hydel,
Nuclear, etc.)
13.5
3.0
3.0
14.0
14.0
19.0
6.6
* 2002 Data
Fig 4
70
60
50
40
%
30
20
10
0
Pakistan
India
Oil
Malaysia
Gas
UAE
UK
Coal
USA
Canada
CHINA
others
* Data: 2002
The world data regarding total electric power industry and fossil fuel reserves to
production ratio is given below in Fig 5&6.
Nat. Gas
541,818
17.7%
Coal
1,487,373
48.7%
Nuclear
598,489
19.6%
Other
47,351
1.6%
Wind/Solar
11,008
0.4%
Renewable 66,455
2.2%
Hydro Electric
207,634
6.8%
There are considerable oil, gas, and coal reserves and hydel potential. The crude oil
reserves are estimated at 27 billion barrels including 300 million barrels proven reserves. The
level of production is presently 22.6 million barrels compared with the level of consumption
of 100 million barrels. The natural gas reserves are 8 trillion cubic meters including the
proven reserves of 0.8 trillion cubic meters. The level of production is presently 93 million
cubic meters per day compared with the level of consumption of 82 million cubic meters per
day. The coal reserves are 185 billion tonnes including the proven reserves of 3.3 billion
tonnes. The level of production is 3.3 million tonnes and the level of consumption is 6.1
million tonnes.
It has been estimated that the hydel potential in the country is 46,000 MW, while the
present installed capacity of hydel power is only 6459 MW. Out of total power generation of
83755 GWH, hydel generation is around 29853 GWH. The oil sector has all along been
heavily dependant on imports of about 85 percent of the national requirement. Annually
about 7.8 million tonnes of crude oil, 5.2 million tonnes of oil products and 2.8 million
tonnes of coal are being imported at a cost of around $ 3 billion.
The local production of oil and gas would start declining due to depletion of
resources from the year 2010. There would also be a deficit of gas unless considerable
contribution is made from new discoveries. In case the gap is not met through indigenous
supply, there will be need to import gas, and the requisite infrastructure would have to be
placed in a timely manner. Power deficit is already being felt in the power generation sector.
Some of this deficit would be met by accelerated exploitation of indigenous hydel and coal
reserves, while imported fuel would be required to meet the future demand of power plants
operating on oil and gas.
The present world fuel ethanol production is about 30 billion litres whereas the
ethanol production during 2004-05 in the country was about 350 to 500 million litres. Apart
from export of substantial quantities of molasses, production of alcohol from molasses
comprises the only major value added product manufactured in the country. At present
there are no fuel ethanol-producing units in the country and there is no blend of fuel ethanol
with petrol. It is planned to mix about five percent of fuel ethanol in petrol which will be
gradually increased in the subsequent years. Research would also be undertaken for mixing
fuel ethanol in diesel.
Most of the coal reserves of the country, estimated at 185 billion tonnes are located in
Sindh, including 176 billion tonnes at Thar. The current total mineable reserves of coal are
estimated at 2 billion tonnes (60 percent of measured reserves). At present there is no
mining/coal production from Thar but recent studies have indicated considerable potential
28.3.
Objectives
The main objectives of the energy sector development are: (i) to enhance the
exploitation of hydropower, and exploration and production activities of oil, gas and coal
resources, and increase the share of coal and alternate energy in overall energy mix, (ii) to
optimize utilization of the countrys indigenous resource base to reduce dependence on
imported fuel through an institutionalized strategy, (iii) to create an environment conducive
to the participation of the private sector, and (iv) to develop the energy scenario in the
context of regional perspective.
28.4.
Strategy
The strategic directions for development of the energy sector and sustainable supply
of energy at competitive price to all sectors of the economy include: (i) supply to be based
on an optimum energy mix; (ii) maximum utilization of the indigenous resources to meet the
increasing energy demand with a major emphasis on increasing the coal share in the total
energy mix by developing indigenous coal reserves, and setting up integrated coal mining,
power generation, petro-chemical plants and coal gasification; development of hydro for
power generation; increasing local oil and gas production by enhancing drilling activities
particularly in off-shore areas; replacement of imported oil with imported gas; and
promotion of accelerated nuclear and renewable/alternate energy sources (wind, solar) in
overall energy mix; (iii) enhancing participation in the sector, including manufacturing of
plants and equipment by strengthening regulatory frameworks and related institutions
and development of infrastructure, and (iv) development of human resources with emphasis
on technical skills and expertise. The strategy also includes extension of LPG supply to the
domestic sector, encouragement of CNG utilization in the transport sector and import of
LNG to meet short-term gas requirements, if feasible. Incentives would also be provided for
mechanized development of coal gasification technology.
The countrys energy mix and demand projections by fuel for the short, medium
and long term are outlined in Table 3 and Fig 7:
Total
MTOE
Current
Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
50.8
79.39
120.18
177.35
255.37
361.31
Oil
15.20
30%
20.69
26%
32.51
27%
45.47 25.7%
Natural
Gas
25.45
50%
38.99
49%
52.98
44%
77.85
Coal
3.30
6.5%
7.16
9%
14.45
12%
Hydro
6.43
Renewable
0.00
0.0%
0.84
1.1%
1.60
1.3%
3.00
Nuclear
0.42
0.8%
0.69
0.9%
2.23
1.9%
4.81
44%
57.93
114.84
45%
162.58
45%
24.77 14.0%
38.28
15%
68.65
19%
30.50
12%
38.93 10.8%
1.7%
5.58
2.2%
9.20
2.5%
2.7%
8.24
3.2%
15.11
4.2%
Fig 7
400
H YD EL
350
C OA L
300
GA S
250
N U C LEA R
200
R EN EWA B LE
15 0
OI L
10 0
50
0
2005
2 0 10
2 0 15
2020
2025
2030
The energy demand over the next five years is expected to grow at a rate of 7.4
percent per annum. To meet future requirements with indigenous resources, domestic
exploration, if feasible, would be intensified. Simultaneously, the energy supply options
would be diversified, with import of gas and LNG. In power generation a total of 23 hydel
projects are planned to be initiated during the MTDF period, out of which 14 hydel projects
will be completed, so that hydel-thermal mix is shifted towards hydel generation.
Worldwide, pumped storage is utilized to generate about 70,000 MW hydel power. This
concept, depicted in Fig 5 would be explored to utilize hydel potential.
Fig 8
Peak Hours
Main
Reservoir
Dam
Flow Direction
Downstream
Reservoir
Unit working as
Turbine
Off-Peak Hours
Flow Direction
Main
Reservoir
Dam
Downstream
Reservoir
Unit working as
Pump*
* Using electricity from nuclear or other sources
Worldwide Installed Pumped Storage Hydro Capacity in 2000: >70,000 MW
2005
Table 4
Energy Gap Coverage
2010
2015
2020
Supply
54.04
76.19
98.66
Demand
54.05
79.40
0.0
Gas Import-1
2025
2030
127.11
168.16
220.37
120.17
177.34
255.37
361.31
(3.21)
(21.51)
(50.23)
87.21)
(140.94)
5.0
15.6
15.6
15.6
15.6
Gas Import-2
5.0
27.0
27.0
27.0
Gas Import-3
5.0
27.0
27.0
Gas Import-4
15.0
27.0
Gap
MTOE
Fig 9
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
Demand
28.5.
and
Dem
rt-4
Impo
Impo
r t-2
Impo
rt-3
Imported oil
Import-1
2010
Import-4
2015
Import-3
Import-2
2020
Import-1
2025
Imported oil
2030
Supply
28.6.
Power Sector
During the last four years (2001-05), several public sector projects including Allai
Khwar (121MW), Khan Khwar (72MW), Dubair Khwar(130MW), Golan Gol (106MW),
Malakand-III (81MW), Keyal Khwar (130MW) and Jinnah low head (96MW) are at different
stages of implementation. In addition hydel projects namely Malakand-III (81MW) in
NWFP, Battar (4.8MW) in AJK and Naltar (18MW) in Northern Areas under the provincial
programme were also approved for implementation.
With the addition of a capacity of 1450 MW during 2001-05 through the Ghazi Brotha
hydropower project, the installed capacity of the system has increased from 17710 MW to
20289 MW, resulting in change in the hydel/thermal mix from 28:72 in 2001 to 33:67 in 2005.
Over the same period, the total electricity generation increased from 67500 Gwh in 2000-01
to 87992 Gwh in 2004-05. ( an ACGR of 3.2 percent), and 1.7 million new consumers were
added in the WAPDA and KESC systems. In financial terms, an amount of Rs.73.4 billion
was utilized for the power sector during 2001-05 (including budgetary corporations).
28.7.
Issues
Major issues in the sector include the following:
Shortcomings in Implementation
The outlined plans by the utilities (WAPDA and KESC) remained far beyond their
financial or implementation capabilities.
Slow Development of Indigenous Resources
The slow development rate of indigenous resources, including hydel, coal, oil, gas and
renewable, has aggravated the overall supply position. The lingering deadlock over major
reservoir dam/power projects has virtually held hostage the development of huge hydro
resources. The non-availability of feasibility studies of potential sites has further added to the
delays in utilization of hydel resources. Similarly, limited capability of Public Sector agencies
such as PMDC and SCA, has contributed to slow development of vast coal reserves. In
addition, relatively limited infrastructure has hindered the development of oil and gas in the
country.
Privatization and Institutional Aspects
The unbundling of WAPDA into NTDC, GENCO, DISCO and creation of NEPRA is
taking time to yield the desired benefits of privatization programme, which is moving at a slow
pace. Government policies and plans are yet to be synchronized for the creation of an efficient,
cost effective and reliable power sector. The power sector is also suffering from weak
coordination between the Government agencies and other power sector stakeholders. There
has been an adhoc approach in the management of balancing work like load forecast, project
identification, tariff regime and future investment requirement. The resulting poor
coordination and rivalry amongst different stake holders and institutions has also impacted
negatively on the competitive development of power sector.
Generation Mix
Over the years the generation mix, which was earlier in favour of cheap hydel power
has tilted towards imported thermal, thereby increasing import bills and delaying development
of indigenous resources. Though the declining hydro power trend has lately been checked but
it will take considerable time to correct the situation as the gestation period for hydro based
generation is relatively long.
Tariff Structure
A tariff structure, which subsidizes some consumers at the expense of others is
impacting negatively in the development of competitive power system. Commercial and
industrial consumers are subsidizing agriculture and domestic consumers to a large extent.
While there is some justification for subsidy for small domestic users, the current tariff regime
induces misuse of electricity besides serving as a smokescreen for theft and pilferage.
High Transmission and Distribution Losses
A huge revenue is lost annually due to high transmission, distribution, auxiliary losses
and pilferage. Over the years the distribution network is suffering from overloaded conductors,
feeders and transformers. The lack of computerized information on actual loading position and
shortage of funds to revamp the distribution network favours corruption as workers cannot be
held accountable in this environment. In addition, lack of transmission infrastructure and low
capacity utilization of IPPs has resulted in higher overall energy cost.
Lack of Participation of Local Electrical Engineering Industries
Local electrical engineering industries are not being fully encouraged in the
development of power sector, though practically most items required for transmission and
distribution are locally manufactured and are available at international standard on
competitive prices.
Inefficiencies and lack of conservation strategy
Considerable energy losses and wastages due to poor and old equipment design and
make (e.g electric steel-making in Pakistan consuming 700-800 kwh per ton versus 300-350 kwh
in advanced countries) is resulting in at least 20 percent wastage of total energy consumption.
There has also not been a focus on energy conservation.
28.8.
Objectives
The objectives for the development of the power sector include:
i)
ii)
iii)
28.9.
Policy
The policy for power sector envisages:
i)
utilization of indigenous resources for power generation and tilting the hydrothermal generation mix towards hydel by implementing maximum possible
hydro based power projects;
ii)
iii)
iv)
facilitating captive power for old and new industries capacity available in sugar
mills during off crushing season to be made available on national grid;
v)
vi)
exploring the possibility for linking and developing the regional power grid for
efficient and reliable use of power with emphasis on import of power from
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzistan on 765 kv transmission line through silk route;
vii)
viii)
ix)
28.10. Strategy
The main elements of the strategy include:
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
The power prices would be rationalized keeping intact life-line tariff for low
consumption domestic consumers.
vi)
vii)
viii)
ix)
x)
xi)
xii)
xiii)
xiv)
xv)
xvi)
Efforts would be made to stagger load profiles and reduce consumption at peak
hours and increase load factors.
Domestic
Commercial
Agriculture
Industrial
Others
(MW)
Total
2005-06
7,199
1,216
1,763
5,891
1,035
15,500
2006-07
7,585
1,251
1,820
6,481
1,086
16,600
2007-08
8,127
1,312
1,893
7,252
1,159
17,900
2008-09
8,783
1,354
1,979
8,181
1,243
19,600
2009-10
9,531
1,408
2,079
9,267
1,341
21,500
WAPDA and KESC will continue their expansion programme for primary
transmission, secondary transmission and grids and distribution programme to expand the
power network. Energy generation is planned to increase at an average annual compound
rate of 7.9 percent to reach 128670 Gwh by the terminal year of MTDF. The energy sale is
expected to increase at an ACGR of 9.4 percent from 66100 Gwh in 2005 to 103500 Gwh in
2010. Details are at Annex 1.
In order to meet the future load requirement during 2005-10 and to improve the
generation mix towards hydel, an additional 7,100 MW of power would be installed by the
commissioning of the core projects listed in table 6 below.
Table 6
Core Projects to be commissioned during 2005-10
S.No
Name of Project
Type
Capacity
(MW)
1.
2.
Public Sector:
Allai Khawar
Khan Khawar
Hydel
Hydel
121
72
3.
Dubair Khawar
Hydel
130
4.
Keyal Khawar
Hydel
130
5.
Hydel
96
6.
Golan Gol
Hydel
106
7.
Malakand Hydro
Hydel
81
8.
Pehur
Hydel
19
1.
2.
Private Sector:
New Bong Escape
Rajdhani
Hydel
Hydel
79
132
3.
Gulpur
Hydel
60
Small/Low head
Hydel
50
Matiltan
Hydel
84
Kotli
Hydel
97
Lakhra
Coal
450
Coal
300
Dadabhoi
Coal
150
10
Faisalabd
C.C Gas
450
11
Balloki
C.C Gas
400
12
Oil
160
13
Gas
3100
14
Renewable (Wind)
800
Total
7100
Power generation plan for the MTDF period and beyond is given in Table 7 below.
Hydel
Coal
Renewable
Oil
Gas
Total
Existing
(2005)
400
6460
160
180
6400
5940
19540
Addition
2010
1260
900
700
160
4860
7880
27420
2015
900
7570
3000
800
300
7550
20120
47540
2020
1500
4700
4200
1470
300
12560
24730
72270
2000
5600
5400
2700
300
22490
38490
110760
2030
4000
7070
6250
3850
300
30360
51830
162590
Total:
8800
2025
32660 19910
9700
7760 83760
Cum ulative
162590
Several major projects including hydel, coal, nuclear and renewable would be initiated
during the MTDF. Feasibility and detailed engineering work on major hydropower projects is
already underway and their construction would be initiated during the MTDF. The feasibility
studies for additional hydro power potential would also be pursued in public/private sector.
An ongoing project for rehabilitation of KESC system will also restore 140 MW capacity.
Similarly additional energy from Mangla dam after its raising would also become available.
Primary Transmission
The National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) is responsible for
transmission lines and grid stations of 220 kv and above. The existing infrastructure of
transmission and grid stations is overloaded. Power transmission from South to North and
from North to South and for interconnection of new generation project to national grid will be
undertaken. Four primary transmission lines and six 500/220 kv grid stations projects already
approved, would be implemented during the MTDF.
Secondary Transmission
Secondary Transmission and Grid Station programme would be continued to improve
the quality and stability of supply system and to increase the overall access to electricity.
Distribution
To address the problems of heavy overloaded grid stations, high distribution losses,
transmission line constraints, poor quality of service and various other problems, the
distribution network of WAPDAs distribution companies (DISCOs) and KESC would be
extended to increase the service area and to ensure reliable and sustainable electricity supply.
The utilities would also augment their distribution networks to minimize their distribution
losses to the extent possible. About 3 million new consumers are expected to be added to the
distribution network during the MTDF period.
The Gas Infrastructure Development Project to augment the transmission system of gas
utilities has been completed. About 1 billion cubic feet of gas per day was injected into the
system for supply to both power sector and industry. Moreover work on the 817 km crosscountry White Oil Pipeline was also completed.
For the development of Thar coal deposits on fast track basis, a Task Force has been
constituted. A Chinese company undertook a feasibility study to develop a block in Thar coal
for power generation of 600 MW in phases. Simultaneously, a German Company has also
completed a bankable feasibility study on Thar coal mining for 1000 MW power generation
project.
Utilization of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) was encouraged in transport sector to
improve urban air quality and reduce carbon emissions. About 650,000 vehicles would be
converted on CNG. The Government issued directives to promote CNG in the transport sector
as an alternate fuel. About 700 CNG stations would be established in different parts of the
country. Gas from dormant fields will be utilized as CNG for supply to far flung areas.
28.22. Issues
The following are the main issues:
(i)
Low pace of exploration and drilling activities in oil and gas sector.
(ii)
(iii)
There is need to strengthen the oil and gas regulated activities and expedite
the privatization process especially in the gas sector.
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
Refining capacity is short of demand for HSD and some of the other
petroleum products.
(viii)
28.23. Objectives
The main objectives of the Fuel Sector are: (i) to enhance the exploration and
production activities of oil, gas and coal resources, (ii) to encourage the utilization of the
countrys indigenous resource base and reduce dependence on imported fuel, (iii) to create
an environment conducive to the participation of the private sector, and (iv) to develop the
local energy scenario in the context of regional perspective.
28.24. Policy
The following policy measures are envisaged:
i)
The existing policy will be reviewed to encourage oil and gas exploration in
the country especially in offshore areas and impediments in the way of
private sector will be removed. Necessary policy incentives will also be
evolved to enhance private investment in gas pipeline system.
ii)
The production of ethanol from molasses will be increased for mixing with
the motor spirit.
iii)
Reliance on import of oil will be reduced and the share of coal and alternate
energy increased. Incentives will be provided for expediting exploration and
exploitation of huge coal reserves of the country, and alternate technologies
like coal gasification promoted for expanding the utilization of coal.
iv)
v)
vi)
The existing policy to encourage the use of CNG in vehicles will be continued
and the existing price differential between CNG and motor gasoline will be
maintained as an incentive for CNG use.
vii)
Plans for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
imports would be developed.
viii)
ix)
x)
The capacity in fuel sector for policy analysis, research and human resource
development would be enhanced.
28.25. Strategy
The main features of the strategy
as follows:
i)
The process of privatization of pubic sector entities in the Fuel Sector will be
strengthened.
ii)
iii)
Based on a fast track action plan, exploitation of dormant gas fields, Sui deep
reserves, and Tal Block in Kohat will be undertaken.
iv)
v)
For gas market development, gas pricing and taxation would be reviewed
and gas conversion work accelerated through links between gas
manufacturers and gas distribution companies and defining and promoting
rules and safety standards for gas conversion of electricity based equipment.
vi)
vii)
viii)
ix)
x)
Table 8
No of wells to be drilled
2004-05
2005-10
Description
2010-20
(Nos)
2020-30
Total Wells
(Public+Private)
Exploratory
22
300
1080
1800
Appraisal/Development
32
200
720
1200
Total
54
500
1800
3000
Exploratory
175
480
800
Appraisal/Development
10
100
300
500
Sub Total
18
275
780
1300
Exploratory
14
125
600
1000
Appraisal/Development
22
100
420
700
Sub Total
36
225
1020
1700
OGDCL
Private
During the MTDF, Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDCL) would drill
275 exploratory and development wells. The OGDCL plans to undertake 8050 L. km 2D
Seismic Survey and 1765 sq. km 3D Seismic Surveys. The number of rigs would be increased
from 25 to at least 50 and optimal utilization ensured.
Oil Transportation
To satisfy the needs for the white oil supplies to the Peshawar region and to reduce
the potential environmental hazards due to the transportation of petroleum products
through tank wagons, a white oil pipeline would be undertaken in the private sector.
Storages
The existing storage capacity of POL products excluding crude oil provides a cover of
about 20 days. This cover will be increased to 45 days.
Refining Operations
During MTDF, the existing refining capacity of 12.73 million tonnes per annum
would be increased to 18.73 million tonnes per annum by installing an additional refining
capacity of 6 million tonnes per annum as a coastal refinery in the private sector. The Attock
Refinery Limited (ARL) plans to install such a refinery on the coastal region of the country
based on the latest process technologies.
Gas Operations
During the MTDF, it is planned to add about 0.2 million consumers per annum to
the current 4.2 million gas consumers in the country. In addition, due priority will be given
to schemes for supply of gas to towns/villages/localities to improve environment and for
poverty reduction. Moreover, the needs of the industrial sector will be given priority. The
gas requirement of the new Fatima Fertilizer plant is envisaged to be 110 MMCFD besides 78
MMCFD of gas for Balancing, Modernization and Revamping (BMR) of the existing fertilizer
plants during the MTDF period. To promote the petrochemical industry in the country and
to reduce dependence on the import of petroleum products, Attock Refinery Limited (ARL)
would undertake a petrochemical complex in the private sector. It is planned to dedicate
certain gas fields like Gurguri in North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) for petrochemical industry specially establishment of naphtha cracker.
During the MTDF period, the pipeline transmission networks will be increased from
8606 km to 9700 km and distribution network from 62623 km to 94000 km. It will be ensured
that the transmission and distribution losses for the gas companies namely SNGPL and
SSGCL, presently 6% and 6.5% respectively, do not increase during the MTDF.
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
The use of CNG would be expanded as about 100,000 cars and 10,000 buses would be
added every year to the existing stock of the country. A programme of dedicated CNG citybuses would be undertaken, initially in federal and provincial capitals. Subsequently, the
programme will be extended to other urban centres based on transport pollution
considerations. The programme will also include infrastructure development and
manufacturing of dedicated CNG buses.
During the MTDF, the CNG use in transport sector is expected to increase from
21000 million cubic feet per annum to 33900 million cubic feet per annum.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
The supply of LPG would be increased form 1600 tonnes/day to 1800 tonnes/day
during the MTDF period.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
To meet the shortages of gas in Karachi and other parts of the country, the
private sector would be encouraged to import LNG if it is economically a viable option;
there will be no contribution/guarantee from the Government except for
providing/facilitating necessary infrastructure e.g. berth handling facilities at Port Qasim.
Coal
The programme for utilization of indigenous coal includes:
i)
Increase share of coal in overall energy mix to 9% by 2010 and 19% by 2030 by
developing Thar, Sonda-Jherrick coal deposits, and by increasing the
productivity of present operational mines.
ii)
iii)
Acquire
latest
efficient, cost effective and environmentally sound
technologies for co-production of power, fuel and chemicals from coal.
iv)
v)
Cement manufacturing industry as well as boilers of textile and sugar industries are
potential candidates for shifting from furnace oil/gas to coal for the reasons of high prices of
oil in international market and availability of coal as a cheaper source of indigenous energy.
During the MTDF period all the cement plants would be converted to coal, resulting in
increase of coal demand to 2.5 million tonnes. Installing indigenous coal based power
plants will also increase the coal share in power sector. Furthermore, a study for
determining the viability of Thar and Bhakkar coal for gasification is underway. Based on
the findings, the work programme including mining operations and allied works of the
projects will be formulated.
The utilization of lignite (brown coal) in Sindh would be made in power generation,
gasification, fuel and chemicals extraction, briquetting and through quality improvements in
processing industry besides exploration for coal bed methane. The utilization of hard coal of
Punjab, Balochistan and NWFP will be enhanced in brick kiln, cement industries and in
town gasification by enhancing coal production from mines through improvements in
mining techniques. Efforts will be made to mechanize the operational coalmines.
To enhance the exploration and evaluation activities, during the MTDF period the
Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) will complete evaluation and appraisal of coal in
various coalfields in Balochistan, NWFP, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir .
Energy Conservation
It is estimated by National Energy Conservation Centre (ENERCON) that energy
conversion and implementation of low cost and medium cost measures at the national scale
can bring about a saving of around 250,000 tonnes of oil equivalent i.e. an estimated saving
of about Rs. 4 billion each year. The cost of retrofit measures would only be a fraction of the
cost of these savings. The programme initiatives during the MTDF period will have primary
focus on identification, demonstration, data gathering and construction of information
systems, creating awareness and education and system implementation of low-cost and
medium cost measures to achieve energy conservation.
The Alternative Energy Development Board has introduced solar heaters (geysers),
solar cookers and solar fans that would be marketed by the private sector on a massive large
scale. The Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET) has also designed
five types of efficient cooking stoves suitable for rural areas. These cooking stoves, which
provide fuel saving against traditional stoves in the range of 25 to 45%, would also be
marketed .
Privatization
With high priority to privatization in the fuel sector, the Government has decided to
privatize fuel sector entities viz. SNGPL, SSGCL, OGDCL, Pakistan Petroleum Limited
(PPL), National Refinery Limited (NRL) and Pakistan State Oil (PSO). These entities are
expected to be privatized during the MTDF period.
Research and Human Resource Development
Research and development activities will be carried out to enhance sector
competitiveness and efficiency. For mechanized coalmines, training of staff and workers on
scientific basis means will be carried out.
Regional Cooperation and Energy Trade
It is planned to undertake the import of natural gas from the neighboring countries
to supplement the local supplies and replacement of imported oil with imported gas. Three
options namely (i) Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline, (ii) Turkmenistan-Pakistan Gas
Pipeline, and (iii) Qatar-Pakistan Gas Pipeline, are being explored. A decision would be
made during 2005, based on economic evaluation and strategic considerations. A total of 4
pipelines with a capacity of 96.6 MTOEs are projected for 2030. The first pipeline to import
gas to cover deficit of 5.0 MTOE would be made operational by 2010.
Demand and Supply Projections
The demand and supply projections are given in Tables 9 and 10. Details are at
Annex 3. The mixing of 5% of ethanol from molasses will reduce the import requirements
accordingly.
S.No
1
Description
Table 9
Demand Projections
2004-05
2009-10
2019-20
2029-30
16.8
20.69
45.47
66.84
3173
4565
9114
19035
7.4
16
55.36
153
Table 10
Supply Projection
S.No Description
1
2004-05
2009-10
2019-20
2029-30
12
12
18
18
4033
4424
3001
2299
3.9
13.0
55.36
153
(million tonnes)
2
Description
Imported POL Products
2004-05
2009-10
2019-20
2029-30
-4.8
-8.69
-27.47
-48.84
(million tonnes)
2
860
-141
-6113
-16735
-3.5
-3.0
-0
-0
Resource Requirements
A total investment of Rs. 393.8 billion is proposed for Fuel Sector during the MTDF
period, including a public sector investment of Rs. 219.3 billion. Details are in Annex 4 and
Annex 5.
Risk Analysis
If there is any slippage in the drilling activities, the projections for local supply will
have to be revised. It would be imperative to undertake capacity building on timely basis.
The demand and supply assumptions will be reviewed every year to ensure that the
investments remain cost effective.
Conclusion
With the finalization of the long-term energy security plan, decisions for
development of the sector are now firmly in place. During MTDF, the main thrust will be
laid to meet the demand fully, with an emphasis on exploitation of indigenous resources
including hydel, coal, domestic gas and renewable and importing gas in a timely manner.
Sector efficiencies will be improved, institutions strengthened and private sector
involvement enhanced.