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Abstract
Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of manic switch associated with antidepressants in Medicaidenrolled pediatric patients with bipolar depression.
Methods: This retrospective cohort study involved 20032007 Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) data from four geographically diverse states. The study sample included children and adolescents (ages 618 years) who had received a
diagnosis of bipolar disorder on two or more separate occasions or during a hospital discharge, followed by a diagnosis of
depression. According to the pharmacotherapy received by these patients in the 30 days around the index bipolar depression
diagnosis, patients were categorized into five mutually exclusive groups. Manic switch was defined as having received a
diagnosis of mania within 6 weeks after the initiation of bipolar depression treatment. Relative risks of manic switch between
antidepressant monotherapy/polytherapy and their alternatives were assessed using Cox proportional hazards model. The
robustness of the conventional Cox proportional hazards model toward possible bias caused by unobserved confounders was
tested using instrumental variable analysis, and the uncertainty regarding manic switch definition was tested by altering the
duration of follow-up.
Results: After applying all the selection criteria, 179 antidepressant monotherapy, 1047 second-generation antipsychotic
(SGA) monotherapy, 570 mood stabilizer monotherapy, 445 antidepressant polytherapy, and 1906 SGAmood stabilizer
polytherapy users were identified. In Cox proportional hazard analyses, both antidepressant monotherapy and polytherapy
exhibited higher risk of manic switch than their alternatives (antidepressant monotherapy vs. SGA monotherapy, hazard ratio
[HR] = 2.87 [95% CI: 1.107.49]; antidepressant monotherapy vs. mood stabilizer monotherapy, HR = 1.41 [95% CI: 0.52
3.80); antidepressant polytherapy vs. SGA-mood stabilizer polytherapy, HR = 1.61 [95% CI: 0.902.89]). However, only the
comparison between antidepressant monotherapy and SGA monotherapy was statistically significant. The instrumental
variable analysis did not detect endogeneity of the treatment variables. Extending the follow-up period from 6 weeks to 8 and
12 weeks generated findings consistent with the main analysis.
Conclusions: Study findings indicated a higher risk of manic switch associated with antidepressant monotherapy than with
SGA monotherapy in pediatric patients with bipolar depression. The finding supported the clinical practice of cautious
prescribing of antidepressants for brief periods.
Introduction
Department of Pharmaceutical Health Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Houston, Houston, Texas.
Global Health Economics, Amgen Inc., Thousand Oaks, California.
3
Division of Management, Policy and Community Health, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston, Texas.
4
Department of Psychiatry, Legacy Community Health Services, Houston, Texas.
2
551
552
antidepressants are safe and effective medications for the condition,
both before and after the APA revision. Multiple observational
studies including patients self-reports and naturalistic studies reported a higher risk of manic switch associated with the use of
antidepressants in adults with bipolar depression (Peet 1994; Altshuler et al. 1995; Boerlin et al. 1998; Henry et al. 2001; Ghaemi
et al. 2003; Truman et al. 2007). However, most of the clinical trials
included in the review by Licht et al. (2008) and in the metaanalysis by Gijsman et al. (2004) did not find statistically significant differences between antidepressants and placebo regarding the
risk of manic switch.
Critical evaluation of these clinical trials suggested that it is
difficult to make a confirmatory conclusion based on available
evidence, because of the presence of biases in the existing trials
(Licht et al. 2008). For example, in some of the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the risk of manic switch between antidepressants and placebo, 75% of the patients were
concomitantly treated with mood stabilizers or second-generation
antipsychotics (SGAs). Also, these trials captured manic switch
during various follow-up times, and did not report whether the
switch occurred during acute treatment for depression or after remission, thereby drawing inconclusive evidence for manic switch
risk with antidepressants (Licht et al. 2008).
Bipolar disorder with childhood onset seems to be more severe
than the form that first appears in adults (Perlis et al. 2004; Birmaher
et al. 2006). Although there are no empirical data available to clarify
the association between antidepressant monotherapy and the risk of
manic switch in this subgroup, some indirect evidence suggests that
children and adolescents with bipolar disorder may have symptoms
more often and switch moods more frequently than adults with the
illness. In a recent study conducted among a cohort of youth (920
years) with depressive and anxiety disorders, and with at least one
parent with bipolar I disorder, 21% had been treated with antidepressants. Among these antidepressant recipients, 57% had had an
adverse reaction in the form of manic symptoms (irritability, aggression, impulsivity, or hyperactivity), leading to antidepressant
discontinuation (Strawn et al. 2014). Therefore, the existing pediatric guidelines for bipolar disorder tend to be more conservative in
recommending the use of antidepressants. Antidepressant monotherapy was never recommended, and the use of antidepressants as
an adjunct treatment was mentioned as may not be necessary unless
the depressed phase persists or becomes severe (McClellan et al.
1997) and caution must be taken because antidepressants may
destabilize the patients mood or incite a manic episode (McClellan
et al. 2007). However, our previous research using Medicaid data
revealed that antidepressants were used in nearly half (48.17%) of
children and adolescents with bipolar depression, of whom 42.40%
received it as an adjunct treatment and 5.77% received is as a
monotherapy (Bhowmik et al. 2013).
Almost all existing clinical trials assessing manic switch associated with the use of antidepressants compared them to placebo
(Mendlewicz and Youdim 1980; Himmelhoch et al. 1982; Cohn
et al. 1989; Nemeroff et al. 2001; Tohen et al. 2003). However, in
practice, the more clinically relevant issue is the risk from antidepressants versus their alternatives. Head-to-head comparison data
between antidepressant monotherapy and SGA/mood stabilizer
monotherapy, or between antidepressant polytherapy and SGA/
mood stabilizer polytherapy, are needed. Therefore, the objectives
of this study were to evaluate the comparative risk of manic switch
associated with 1) antidepressant monotherapy versus SGA
monotherapy, 2) antidepressant monotherapy versus mood stabilizer monotherapy, and 3) antidepressant polytherapy (with SGA or
BHOWMIK ET AL.
mood stabilizer) versus SGA-mood stabilizer polytherapy in
Medicaid-enrolled children and adolescents with bipolar depression. We hypothesized that an antidepressant, when used alone or in
combination with a mood stabilizer/SGA in children with bipolar
depression, was associated with increased risk of manic switch
compared with corresponding SGA and mood stabilizer monotherapies or combination.
Methods
Data source
In this retrospective cohort study, 20032007 Medicaid Analytic
eXtract (MAX) files from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid
Services (CMS) were used to achieve the study objectives. The
MAX is a set of person-level claims data files containing information on Medicaid eligibility, demographics, service utilization,
and payments. We used data from four geographically diverse
states with large Medicaid enrolments of children and adolescents
(CA, TX, IL, and NY).
Pharmacotherapy for bipolar depression
The pharmacotherapies for bipolar depression assessed in this
study were mood stabilizers (lithium, sodium divalproex/valproate,
oxcarbazepine, topiramate, lamotrigine, and gabapentin); SGA
(risperidone, aripiprazole, olanzapine, quetiapine, clozapine, and
ziprasidone); newer antidepressants (serotonin reuptake inhibitor
[SSRI] antidepressants and others, citalopram, escitalopram, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, paroxetine, sertraline, venlafaxine, and bupropion); and other antidepressants (amitriptyline, clomipramine,
desipramine, doxepin, imipramine, nortriptyline, mirtazapine, nefazodone, and trazodone) (Bhowmik et al. 2013).
Study population
The study design and cohort identification process are presented
in Figure 1. Children and adolescents with bipolar depression were
identified based on the following algorithm (Bhowmik et al. 2013):
1) 618 years of age (children and adolescents), 2) having received
a minimum of two diagnoses of bipolar disorder other than bipolar
depression (International Classification of Diseases, 9th version,
Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM]: 296.0, 296.1, 296.4-296.8,
301.11, 301.13) on different service dates, or only one diagnosis of
bipolar disorder that came from hospital discharge, followed by a
diagnosis of depression (ICD-9-CM: 296.5, 296.2, 296.3) (Busch
et al. 2008) any time between January 2003 and December 2007;
and 3) having received antidepressants, SGA, or mood stabilizers
within 30 days of the depression diagnosis. The date on which the
first prescription of these medications was filled was defined as the
index date.
Exclusion criteria
Patients who received diagnoses of schizophrenia (ICD-9-CM:
295.0-295.9) or epilepsy (ICD-9-CM: 345.xx) were excluded from
the cohort, to increase the likelihood that the prescriptions were
used for the treatment of bipolar disorder. Patients without continuous Medicaid eligibility 2 months prior to and 3 months after
the index date were also excluded. Finally, for identification of new
users of antidepressants, patients who had received antidepressant
prescriptions during the 2 month pre-index period were excluded.
The bipolar depression patients identified were then divided
into five mutually exclusive groups based on their medication
553
Follow-up = 6
weeks
Monotherapy
cohort = 1,796
Antidepressant
monotherapy =
179
Atypical
antipsychotic
monotherapy
= 1,047
Polytherapy
cohort = 2,351
Mood
stabilizer
monotherapy
= 570
FIG. 1.
Antidepressant
polytherapy =
445
Atypical
antipsychoticmood
stabilizer
polytherapy =
1,906
Consort diagram.
use during 30 days around the index bipolar depression diagnosis: 1) Antidepressant monotherapy, 2) SGA monotherapy,
3) mood stabilizer monotherapy, 4) antidepressantSGA or
antidepressantmood stabilizer polytherapy, and 5) SGAmood
stabilizer polytherapy. Monotherapy was defined as receiving
medications from a single therapeutic class only, whereas
polytherapy was defined as receiving medications from different therapeutic classes within 30 days of the depression diagnosis and with a minimum of 14 day overlap between the
prescriptions.
Manic switch
Manic switch events were identified from the combined inpatient and other therapy MAX files, using the ICD-9-CM codes of
mania (296.0, 296.1, 296.4, 296.81) during the 6 week follow-up
period after the index date. The follow-up window was restricted to
6 weeks to differentiate manic events as being treatment emergent
rather than the natural progression of bipolar disorder itself (Salvadore et al. 2010).
Statistical analyses
Descriptive analysis was conducted to describe the demographics, treatment utilization, comedications, and comorbidities
during the 2 month pre-index period for the monotherapy and
polytherapy users, respectively. Time to manic switch was analyzed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression
model to assess the risk of manic switch associated with bipolar
depression treatment. The analyses evaluated antidepressant
monotherapy versus mood stabilizer or SGA monotherapy and
antidepressant polytherapy versus SGAmood stabilizer polytherapy. KaplanMeier plot, log-minus-log survival plot, and
Schoenfeld residual test were performed to test the proportionality
of hazard assumption. Patients were censored in the model upon: 1)
Discontinuation of the index treatment regimen, 2) augmentation
with a newer medication other than the index regimen, or 3) end of
follow- up. SAS 9.3 was used for the entire analyses and p < 0.05
was considered to be statistically significant.
Covariates included in the Cox model were patient demographics, comedications, and comorbidities that were measured at 2
554
months pre-index date. Comorbidities included previous manic
episodes identified by diagnosis codes of mania, substance abuse
disorder (SUD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD),
oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), anxiety, adjustment disorder,
and psychotic disorder at baseline. Comedications included stimulants, sedatives, hypnotics, anticholinergics, SGAs, or mood stabilizers at baseline. Uses of psychotherapy and hospital admissions
at baseline were identified as measures of disease severity. Patient
demographic characteristics included were age (categorized as
children if <13 years of age and adolescent if 13 years of age),
gender, race (white, black, or other) and state of residence (TX, NY,
CA, or IL). Medicaid eligibility categories such as Temporary
Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and foster children were
also identified, as these variables may indicate socioeconomic
characteristics of patients. Duration of disease was computed as
days between the first bipolar disorder diagnosis identified in the
data and the index bipolar depression diagnosis date, as longer
duration of disease may influence the future symptomatic outcomes, such as mood destabilization. Finally, number of physicians
available in each zip code was measured to adjust for psychiatric
care availability for patients.
Sensitivity analysis on unobserved confounding
The robustness of the conventional Cox proportional hazards
model toward possible bias caused by unobserved confounders
such as the responsiveness to previous treatment for bipolar disorders was tested using instrumental variable (IV) analysis. In this
study, physicians preference, misdiagnosis of index bipolar
depression as unipolar depression (ICD-9-CM code: 296.2,
296.3), and year of cohort entry were identified as instruments.
Among these IVs, the physician prescribing preference has been
established as a valid instrument for explaining psychotropic
treatment variation in the literature (Brookhart et al. 2006, 2007;
Rassen et al. 2009).
Physician prescribing preference was operationalized as the treatment prescribed to the previous eligible patient of the same physician
(Brookhart et al. 2006). According to this approach, if the last prescription written by a physician for a child with bipolar depression was
for an antidepressant, then for the next patient the physician was
classified as an antidepressant prescriber. Otherwise, that physician
was classified as a non-antidepressant prescriber. Confirmed bipolar disorder patients (those with two consecutive bipolar disorder
diagnoses) experiencing a depressive episode and given a major depressive disorder (unipolar depression) diagnosis instead of a bipolar
depression diagnosis (ICD-9-CM: 296.5) suggested a misdiagnosis
(Stensland et al. 2008). The year patients entered into the cohort,
computed based on their index date, explains secular changes in
Medicaid policy and formularies, which may predict treatment selection between antidepressant and its alternates.
Conceptually, physicians preference for a drug is a strong
predictor for treatment selection. A prior history of treating bipolar
depression with antidepressants over mood stabilizers or SGAs
may predict future use of antidepressants by those physicians while
treating subsequent patients. Similarly, misdiagnosing bipolar depression as major depression leads to a higher likelihood of
prescribing antidepressants. The availability and coverage of
medications at different years also predicts the utilization. However, these factors do not directly result in a manic switch or affect a
patients clinical profile or sociodemographic characteristics;
hence, they cannot predict the risk of manic switch, except through
its influence on the type of treatment administered.
BHOWMIK ET AL.
Apart from these conceptual justifications, we also performed
specification tests to validate the instruments. Strength of association between the instruments and the binary treatment variables
were assessed by computing a partial F test and partial R2 (Rassen
et al. 2009; Hadley et al. 2010). Change in observed covariate
imbalance was determined by comparing the covariate distribution
across the treatment groups and the instruments. Fractional change
in distribution (Rassen et al. 2009) of each covariate between
the treatment groups and the instruments was computed. Test to
detect the presence of endogeneity was also performed by testing
the statistical significance of the coefficient on the residual computed from the first stage and included in the second stage of the
regression.
The IV analysis that was used in this study is called the twostage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimation (Terza et al. 2008). In
the first-stage model, binary continuous treatment variables were
regressed on all the covariates and the instruments using a linear
probability model (Humphreys et al. 2011). Residual (r) for each
patient was computed as the difference between the binary treatment variable and the predicted treatment variable from the linear
probability model.
In the second-stage model, time to manic switch associated with
the treatment variables was assessed using a conventional Cox
proportional hazards regression model adjusting for all the previously measured covariates and r computed from the first stage. The
standard errors in the second stage were bootstrapped to avoid
using the ones generated from the manual computation of the 2SRI.
Association between the outcome and the treatment variable and all
other covariates were reported as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs.
Statistical insignificance of r in the second stage regression might
be the result of the exogeneity of the treatment variable, thereby
making the IV analysis unnecessary.
Sensitivity analysis on the duration of follow-up
Although 6 weeks is a commonly used follow-up period for
assessing short-term manic switch, the medical community has not
yet reached a consensus on the duration of follow-up. According to
the nomenclature of the course and outcome of bipolar disorder
defined by the International Society for Bipolar Disorders (ISBD)
task force (Tohen et al. 2009), a manic event 8 weeks after
treatment is a definite measure of manic switch, whereas one
during the 12 week window is a likely or possible. To test
the robustness of our findings toward the variations in the follow-up
period, sensitivity analyses were conducted by extending the follow-up to 8 weeks and 12 weeks, respectively.
Results
As presented in Figure 1, 4147 children and adolescents with
bipolar depression were identified after imposing all inclusion and
exclusion criteria. Most of these patients were adolescents (13
years), white, and male. Approximately 25% of these patients
were foster children. The most common comorbid conditions
were ADHD, ODD, anxiety, and adjustment disorder, and common comedications were stimulants and sedatives. More than
50% of the monotherapy and polytherapy users received psychotherapy, and 1630% had been hospitalized during the preindex period. The average duration between the first bipolar
disorder diagnosis presented in the data and the index bipolar
depression was 300 days.
Of 4147 patients identified, 1796 received monotherapy and
2351 received polytherapy. These patients were further categorized
555
Covariates
Demographics
Age category
Children (613 years)
Adolescents (1418 years)
Race
White
Black
Gender (Male)
State
TX
CA
IL
NY
Number of physicians in ZIP codes
Proxy measurements of severity
Duration of disease
Prior hospitalization
Medicaid eligibility groups
Foster care
TANF
Comorbidity
Substance abuse disorder
ADHD
Suicidality
Oppositional defiant disorder
Anxiety
Adjustment disorder
Psychotic disorder
Mania
Comedication
Stimulant
Sedative
Hypnotic
Anticholinergic
Psychotherapy
SGA
Mood stabilizer
Antidepressant
monotherapy (n = 179)
n (%) or Mean ( SD)
SGA monotherapy
(n = 1047)
n (%) or Mean ( SD)
Mood stabilizer
monotherapy (n = 570)
n (%) or Mean ( SD)
36 (20.45)
140 (79.55)
437 (42.55)
590 (57.45)
177 (31.83)
379 (68.17)
< 0.0001
89 (50.28)
32 (18.08)
71 (40.11)
461 (44.58)
291 (28.14)
650 (62.86)
260 (46.43)
157 (28.04)
321 (57.32)
0.0630
76
36
51
14
23
320
206
340
168
31
164
124
201
71
29
(42.94)
(20.34)
(28.21)
(7.91)
( 23)
(30.95)
(19.92)
(32.88)
(16.25)
( 29)
p value
< 0.0001
(29.29)
(22.14)
(35.89)
(12.68)
( 28)
0.0025
0.0007
328 ( 364)
41 (22.91)
334 ( 372)
211 (20.15)
295 ( 338)
101 (17.72)
0.1012
0.2574
32 (17.88)
14 (7.82)
322 (30.75)
80 (7.64)
160 (28.07)
48 (8.42)
0.0019
0.8562
15
35
9
27
26
16
5
23
(8.38)
(19.55)
(5.03)
(15.08)
(14.53)
(8.94)
(2.79)
(12.85)
73
339
22
262
95
123
81
134
(6.97)
(32.38)
(2.10)
(25.02)
(9.07)
(11.75)
(7.74)
(12.80)
44
150
9
123
61
65
23
87
(7.72)
(26.32)
(1.58)
(21.58)
(10.70)
(11.40)
(4.04)
(15.26)
0.7363
0.0004
0.0221
0.0090
0.0712
0.5488
0.0018
0.3676
29
48
4
4
102
12
9
(16.20)
(26.82)
(2.23)
(2.23)
(56.98)
(6.70)
(5.03)
209
177
50
71
543
539
61
(19.96)
(16.91)
(4.78)
(6.78)
(51.86)
(51.48)
(5.83)
105
102
16
22
309
38
276
(18.42)
(17.89)
(2.81)
(3.86)
(54.21)
(6.67)
(48.42)
0.4389
0.0063
0.0711
0.0065
0.3661
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
SGA, second-generation antipsychotic; ADHD, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; TANF, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.
556
BHOWMIK ET AL.
Table 2. Descriptive Results for the Polytherapy Cohort (n = 2351)
Covariates
Demographics
Age category
Children
Adolescents
Race
White
Black
Gender: Male
State
TX
CA
IL
NY
Number of physicians in ZIP codes
Proxy measurements of severity
Duration of disease
Prior hospitalization
Medicaid eligibility groups
Foster care
TANF
Comorbidity
Substance abuse disorder
ADHD
Suicidality
Oppositional defiant disorder
Anxiety
Adjustment disorder
Psychotic disorder
Mania
Comedication
Stimulant
Sedative
Hypnotic
Anticholinergic
Psychotherapy
SGA
Mood stabilizer
p value
156 (36.03)
277 (63.97)
808 (43.49)
1050 (56.51)
0.0046
209 (47.83)
86 (19.68)
236 (54.00)
885 (47.33)
487 (26.04)
1268 (67.81)
0.0061
< 0.0001
(39.95)
(17.97)
(25.94)
(16.15)
( 29)
< 0.0001
295 ( 369)
139 (31.24)
392 ( 377)
322 (16.89)
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
83 (18.65)
49 (11.01)
651 (34.16)
90 (4.72)
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
228
75
112
22
26
(52.17)
(17.16)
(25.63)
(5.03)
( 24)
747
336
485
302
33
< 0.0001
28
128
10
87
65
58
32
56
(6.29)
(28.76)
(2.25)
(19.55)
(14.61)
(13.03)
(7.19)
(12.58)
97
602
31
487
145
238
149
296
(5.09)
(31.58)
(1.63)
(25.55)
(7.61)
(12.49)
(7.82)
(15.53)
0.3085
0.2470
0.3677
0.0080
< 0.0001
0.7542
0.6554
0.1169
61
109
20
27
286
151
67
(13.71)
(24.49)
(4.49)
(6.07)
(64.27)
(33.93)
(15.06)
442
440
93
175
1071
1375
1323
(23.19)
(23.08)
(4.88)
(9.18)
(56.19)
(72.14)
(69.41)
< 0.0001
0.5269
0.7325
0.0348
0.0019
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
SGA, second-generation antipsychotic; ADHD, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; TANF, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.
Among all three models, a prior manic episode was a very strong
predictor of short-term manic switch with an HR of 14.00 (95% CI:
8.9921.78) for the comparison between antidepressant monotherapy and SGA monotherapy, 17.80 (95% CI: 10.2930.81) for
the comparison between antidepressant monotherapy and mood
stabilizer monotherapy, and 10.96 (95% CI: 8.3614.37) when
antidepressant polytherapy was compared with SGAmood stabilizer polytherapy.
IV analysis
Table 6 presents the statistical validation of instrumental variables. The F statistic for all three comparisons ranged from 149 to
285, and the partial R2 ranged from 0.27 to 0.40 which were well
above the widely used rule of thumb (i.e., 10 for F statistic) indicated by Staiger and Stock (1997). These measures implied that the
instrumental variables selected for the study were strong predictors
of treatment selection.
Variables
Hazard ratio
(95% CI) from
conventional Cox
proportional hazard
regression model
Hazard ratio
(95% CI)
from instrumental
variable analysis
Variables
Follow-up: 6 weeks
Antidepressant
monotherapy (ref:
SGA monotherapy)
Prior mania
Stimulant
Oppositional defiant
disorder
Residual (r)
Antidepressant
monotherapy
Stimulant
Oppositional defiant
disorder
Prior mania
Residual (r)
Antidepressant
monotherapy
Stimulant
Anticholinergic
Oppositional defiant
disorder
Prior mania
Residual (r)
557
Hazard ratio
(95% CI) from
conventional Cox
proportional hazard
regression model
Hazard ratio
(95% CI) from
instrumental
variable analysis
Follow-up: 6 weeks
2.87 (1.10-7.49)
2.34 (0.41-13.30)
14.00 (8.99-21.78)
1.86 (1.07-3.23)
1.78 (1.09-2.90)
16.01 (9.58-26.77)
1.86 (1.04-3.35)
1.80 (1.07-3.04)
N/A
Follow-up: 8 weeks
1.38 (0.21-8.89)
2.69 (1.10-6.60)
2.35 (0.51-10.75)
1.87 (1.11-3.15)
1.85 (1.17-2.93)
1.89 (1.09-3.29)
1.88 (1.16-3.03)
1.49 (0.34-6.58)
1.97 (1.19-3.25)
0.25 (0.06-0.95)
1.80 (1.16-2.79)
2.04 (1.21-3.46)
0.17 (0.004-6.57)
1.78 (1.12-2.83)
13.34 (8.91-19.96)
N/A
14.90 (9.41-23.59)
2.11 (0.44-10.20)
Antidepressant
monotherapy (ref:
mood stabilizer
monotherapy)
Prior mania
Residual (r)
Antidepressant
monotherapy
Anticholinergic
History of mood
stabilizer
Prior mania
Residual (r)
Antidepressant
monotherapy
History of mood
stabilizer
Prior mania
Residual (r)
1.41 (0.52-3.80)
1.17 (0.24-5.57)
17.80 (10.29-30.81)
N/A
Follow-up: 8 weeks
24.06 (11.32-51.15)
1.34 (0.23-7.67)
1.68 (0.67-4.21)
1.32 (0.30-5.84)
3.73 (1.14-12.16)
2.21 (1.17-4.20)
3.84 (0.88-16.69)
2.30 (0.96-5.53)
1.19 (0.28-5.13)
1.90 (1.02-3.55)
1.95 (0.83-4.60)
17.74 (10.42-30.20)
N/A
23.27 (11.54-46.95)
1.45 (0.25-8.33)
558
BHOWMIK ET AL.
Table 5. Cox Proportional Hazards Regression
Analysis Results (Antidepressant Polytherapy
vs. SGAMood Stabilizer Polytherapy)
Variables
Antidepressant
polytherapy (ref:
SGA polytherapy)
Prior mania
Residual (r)
Antidepressant
polytherapy
History of SGA
Prior mania
Residual (r)
Antidepressant
polytherapy
Prior mania
Residual (r)
1.61 (0.90-2.89)
1.23 (0.52-2.89)
10.96 (8.36-14.37)
N/A
Follow-up: 8 weeks
11.33 (8.48-15.12)
1.44 (0.58-3.59)
1.70 (0.97-2.98)
1.22 (0.54-2.76)
1.39 (1.01-1.91)
10.51 (8.10-13.63)
N/A
Follow-up: 12 weeks
1.36 (0.97-1.92)
10.85 (8.24-14.28)
1.22 (0.64-3.75)
1.17 (0.71-1.92)
0.69 (0.32-1.49)
9.37 (7.35-11.96)
N/A
9.68 (7.46-12.56)
2.03 (0.88-4.68)
R2
SGA monotherapy
149
0.28
mood stabilizer
monotherapy
SGA-mood stabilizer
polytherapy
150
0.40
285
0.27
Treatment groups
Comparison groups
Antidepressant
monotherapy
Antidepressant
monotherapy
Antidepressant
polytherapy
concomitant therapy with a mood stabilizer may reduce antidepressantinduced manic switch (Ghaemi et al. 2003). Our analysis confirmed
that the combination of antidepressant and SGA/mood stabilizer has a
comparable risk of manic switch as SGA and mood stabilizer.
Our study is the first that assessed the risk of manic switch in
children and adolescents with bipolar depression, and it is also the
first head-to-head comparison study between antidepressant
monotherapy and polytherapy and their alternatives. Given that
making such comparisons in children using an experimental design
is highly unlikely because of ethical concerns, an observational
study such as this can provide valuable data for clinical practice.
Despite these advantages, existence of unobserved confounders
is always a concern in observational studies, regardless of how
refined the statistical methods and adjustment of the confounding
factors are. Although particular patient characteristics were taken
into account by adjusting for clinical and sociodemographic variables, geographic location, comorbidities, and past use of somatic
and psychotropic medications, data on some potentially important
confounding variables, such as responsiveness to the previous
treatment, were unavailable. Literature suggests that responsiveness to previous psychopharmacotherapy is an important predictor
of the risk of manic switch associated with an antidepressant
(Salvadore et al. 2010). It is likely that there is a severity difference,
and that patients who did not respond well to mood stabilizer and
SGA were switched to antidepressants. To test the robustness of the
conventional Cox proportional hazards model for possible unobserved confounding, the analysis was conducted again using an IV
approach. The statistical insignificance of the residual r in the IV
analysis probably implies that unobserved confounding was not a
concern in the three models. Hence, the conventional Cox proportional hazards model used in the main analysis might provide
sufficient statistical justification for the association between psychotropic treatment and the risk of manic switch.
Another concern about the studies of manic switch is the lack of
agreement on the duration of follow-up (Salvadore et al. 2010).
Ideally, in order for results to be comparable across studies, a single
a priori definition of the time frame (e.g., 6 weeks) from the beginning of antidepressant treatment in patients experiencing a depressive episode, is required. Our present lack of consensus
regarding temporal criteria may dilute the biological underpinnings
of this phenomenon, because subjects who develop affective switch
within very different time frames from the start of antidepressant
treatments are considered equivalent. This methodological issue
has been emphasized by a task force of the ISBD (Grunze 2008). To
test the robustness of our findings against the different definitions of
switching, and to understand the effect of possible misclassification, we conducted a sensitivity analysis by extending the follow-up
period from 6 weeks to 8 and 12 weeks. The sensitivity analysis
confirmed the higher risk of manic switch with antidepressant
monotherapy versus SGA monotherapy.
In addition to the two main concerns that have been addressed in
the sensitivity analysis, our study has other limitations because of
the nature of claims data. For example, prescription claims for
antidepressants, SGAs, and mood stabilizers were captured and
deemed bipolar depression treatment without documented indications from physicians notes. To ensure that those medications were
prescribed to treat bipolar depression, other common indications
for prescribing SGA or mood stabilizers (epilepsy, schizophrenia)
were removed from the cohort, and a strict rule requiring initiation
of the antidepressant within 30 days of depression diagnosis was
also applied. Also, bipolar depression cases and manic switch
events were identified based on ICD-9 diagnosis codes rather than
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