ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: The GOP Contest

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 7 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015

Trump Leads in Expectations,

Shows Strength on Attributes
Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in the latest ABC News/Washington Post
poll, not only in vote preferences but in expectations as well a remarkable feat for the nonpolitician whos surprised the GOP establishment with his staying power as well as his support.
Trump has leveled off with backing from 32 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning
independents who are registered to vote, easily enough to retain his frontrunner status. Fellow
outsider Ben Carson follows with 22 percent, also flat this month after sharp summertime gains.
Notably, even more leaned Republicans, 42 percent, say they expect Trump to win the GOP
nomination for president. And given a list of six potential nominees, 43 percent pick Trump as
having the best chance to win the general election just more than a year from now.

Trump also fares well on many key attributes. Nearly half of leaned Republicans, 47 percent,
view him as the strongest leader; 39 percent think he'd be best able to handle immigration; 32
percent feel he is closest to them on the issues; and 29 percent say he best understands the

problems of people like you. In each case he leads the other top-five contenders for the
nomination, Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina.
Trump has weaknesses nonetheless. More view Carson as the most honest and trustworthy (33
percent vs. 21 percent for Trump), and Trump trails Bush in having the best experience (31 vs.
23 percent). While 19 percent say Trump has the best personality and temperament to serve
effectively as president, that compares with a similar 24 percent for Carson.

Trump
Carson
Fiorina
Bush
Rubio
Cruz

------------------------- GOP candidate attributes ------------------------Best on

Best
Best
Strongest
Best
immiClosest
UnderexperMost
personLeader
chance
gration
on issues
stands
ience
honest
ality
47%
43%
39%
32%
29%
23%
21%
19%
9
16
9
19
19
8
33
24
6
3
4
6
8
3
7
10
12
13
13
11
10
31
10
15
11
11
15
11
13
12
10
14
8
4
9
8
8
8
7
5

Trump and Bush are particularly weak in another measure in this poll, produced for ABC by
Langer Research Associates. Roughly equal numbers of leaned Republicans say the more they
hear about Trump the less they like him, compared with liking him more, 45 vs. 47 percent.
Albeit not a statistically significant result, Bush goes numerically underwater in this gauge, 4741 percent.
Compare that to Carson: Sixty-four percent say as they hear more about him they like him more,
vs. just 18 percent who like him less, a vast 46-point net positive. Scores for Rubio, Fiorina and
Cruz also are net positive on this measure by 23, 17 and 8 points, respectively.

HORSERACE For all the campaigning under way, the overall race for the GOP nomination
looks to be on pause, with essentially no change in candidate support since last month. That
reflects a loss of momentum for Trump and Carson alike. Still, among their opponents only
Rubio cracks the double digits, and just barely, with 10 percent.

In addition to his appeal to anti-immigration Republicans, Trumps candidacy is very much

bolstered by desire in the party for a political outsider. Republicans and Republican-leaning
independents by 57-39 percent say theyre looking for someone from outside the political
establishment rather than someone with political experience drastically different from the 2176 percent division on this issue among leaned Democrats. And Trump wins 41 percent support
from registered leaned Republicans looking for an outsider, vs. 18 percent from those who prefer
political experience.
Prefer a political outsider
Prefer someone with experience

Leaned Republicans
57%
39

Leaned Democrats
21%
76

Trump also continues to garner greater support among less educated potential voters 46 percent
among those who havent gone beyond high school, vs. 23 percent among those whove attended
college. And hes still more popular among men than women, with 37 vs. 27 percent. Indeed

white men without a college degree (leaned Republicans overwhelmingly are white) are among
his strongest groups in voter preference and on issues and attributes alike.
Trump also does particularly well among leaned Republicans who oppose the Trans-Pacific
Partnership, a trade agreement he, too, opposes. Hes backed by 45 percent of its critics vs. 21
percent of its supporters.
Further, Trump is maintaining his support among groups where it might not be expected for
example, hes backed by a third of evangelical white Protestants, very conservative leaned
Republicans and Southerners alike. He has 36 percent support in non-urban areas, vs. 24 percent
in cities.
GROUPS These results also are reflected in perceptions of candidate attributes. Men, those
with less education, those who prefer a political outsider and opponents of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership generally are more apt to rate Trump positively.
In one potential trouble spot for Trump, very conservative Republicans a key GOP group are
less likely than somewhat conservatives to view him as the strongest leader of the lot, although
he leads on this attribute in both groups, picked as strongest leader by 40 percent of strong
conservatives and 52 percent of somewhat conservatives.
Additionally, just 14 percent of very conservatives think Trump's the most honest and
trustworthy; 40 percent say it's Carson. And while very conservative leaned Republicans say by
53-35 percent that the more they hear about Trump the more they like him, that swells to 78-10
percent for Carson.
METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and
cellular telephone Oct. 15-18, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of
1,001 adults, including 423 leaned Republicans. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5
points for the full sample and 5.5 points for leaned Republicans, including the surveys design
effect. Partisan divisions are 30-24-39 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y.,
with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y. See details on the
surveys methodology here.
Analysis by Julie E. Phelan.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/pollingunit.
Media contacts: Heather Riley, (212) 456-4396, or Van Scott, (212) 456-7243.
Full results follow:
* in data columns = less than 0.5 percent
1-4, 8-15 previously released; 16-20 held for release.

5. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) I'm going to read a list of possible candidates for
the Republican nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential
primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which
candidate would you lean toward?
10/18/15 - NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE
Among reg voters:
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Other (vol.)
None of these (vol.)
Would not vote (vol.)
No opinion

------------- 2015 -------------10/18

9/10
7/19
5/31
3/29
7
8
12
10
21
22
20
6
8
6
3
1
3
6
7
6
7
4
8
12
5
2
*
2
1
NA
0
NA
NA
NA
1
*
*
1
1
3
3
8
9
8
0
1
2
*
1
2
3
2
3
1
1
*
1
1
NA
2
5
6
11
8
NA
1
4
2
1
10
7
7
10
8
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
*
1
1
4
2
32
33
24
4
NA
NA
2
13
11
13
1
1
*
*
1
1
1
4
2
3
0
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
5
4

---------- 2014 ----------12/14

10/12
4/27
1/23
14
13
12
18
8
7
NA
NA
7
8
9
14
8
4
7
12
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
7
12
14
NA
3
2
2
NA
2
2
1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
10
12
15
11
5
6
5
NA
7
8
6
10
11
9
12
18
3
4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
7
2
5
NA
*
1
2
2
2
3
4
4
*
0
*
1
6
9
5
9

6. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you
think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president? (Candidates not
read)
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Other
No opinion

10/18/15
12
15
1
3
1
2
0
*
1
NA
5
1
42
NA
*
16

3/29/15
33
1
4
12
*
4
*
0
5
2
4
1
NA
8
2
23

7. (ASKED OF LEAND REPUBLICANS) Thinking about six of these candidates (Trump)

(Carson) (Fiorina) (Bush) (Rubio) (Cruz) who do you think [ITEM]?
Full item wording:
a. is the strongest leader
b. is the most honest and trustworthy

c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h.

has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2016

is closest to you on the issues
has the best experience to be president
has the best personality and temperament to serve effectively as president
is best able to handle the issue of immigration
best understands the problems of people like you

10/18/15 Summary Table

Leader
Trump
47
Carson
9
Fiorina
6
Bush
12
Rubio
11
Cruz
8
All (vol.)
0
Any 2 (vol.)
1
None (vol.)
2
No opinion
5

Honest
21
33
7
10
10
7
*
1
6
5

Best
chance
43
16
3
13
11
4
*
*
1
8

Issues
32
19
6
11
11
8
*
1
2
9

Experience
23
8
3
31
12
8
1
1
7
7

Personality
19
24
10
15
14
5
1
1
1
11

Immigration
39
9
4
13
15
9
*
1
2
8

Understands
29
19
8
10
13
8
*
*
8
4

13. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Regardless of who you may support, would you say that the
more you hear about [ITEM] the more you like him/her, or the more you hear about [ITEM] the
less you like him/her?
10/18/15 - Summary Table
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h.

Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Carly Fiorina
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz

More
47
64
47
41
52
41

Less
45
18
30
47
29
33

No difference
5
4
4
6
4
5

Havent heard enough

0
9
12
4
10
14

No opinion
3
5
6
3
5
7

*** END ***