Fauquier County Public Schools

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Excellence by Design

School Years 2016-2017 through 2025-2026

October 2015

Table of Contents
Introduction
Purpose
Scope and Contents
Methodology
Capacity Defined
Impacts on Data
Birth and Enrollment Data
Overview of the Enrollment Projections
Contact
Enrollment Summary
School Capacity and Projections
Enrollment Summary by School
Enrollment Summary by Grade
Chart Division-wide Enrollment
Chart Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment
Appendices
Eligibility Conversion Table
Birth Data and Growth Rate Table
Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Projections
Kindergarten Enrollment Projections
Chart Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Births
Elementary School Cohorts
Enrollment by Elementary School
Middle School Cohorts
Enrollment by Middle School
High School Cohorts
Enrollment by High School
NOTE: All projections use fall membership data as of September 30.

i
i
ii
iii
iv
v
v
viii
1
2
3
4
5
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A9
A12
A13
A14
A15

INTRODUCTION

Purpose
Fauquier County Public Schools projects student enrollment for a ten-year period and updates those projections
annually. The projections are developed to assist the school division in planning for and managing the current and
future impacts of enrollment. These impacts include staff, facilities and other resources such as furniture, textbooks,
and supplies. Planning to meet these needs enhances the divisions ability to achieve excellence by design and equality
in education for its students.

Scope and Contents

The projections are developed using a methodology, which incorporates data from live births, historical enrollment, and
the progression of students from one grade level to the next.
Scope: The statistics for live birth for Fauquier County residents cover a ten-year period from 2004-2005 (October
through September) through 2013-2014 (see page A2). The 2013-2014 data is the latest available from the Virginia
Bureau of Vital Records and Statistics. The historical enrollment is obtained from the records of the Fauquier County
Public Schools and covers the five-year period from School Year (SY) 2011-2012 through 2015-2016. The live birth
data and historical enrollment data is used to develop enrollment projections for a ten-year period from SY 2016-2017
through SY 2025-2026. The projections are provided for each of the divisions eleven elementary schools, five middle
schools and three high schools.
Contents: The manual is organized in three sections:

Section 1: Introduction - offers an overview of the methodology.

Section 2: Enrollment Summary - includes projection data and charts that are developed from the detailed
information provided in the appendices. The key summary table is shown on page 1, School Capacity and
Projections, and provides the ten-year projections compared to the program capacity of each school.

Section 3: Appendices - includes data used to develop the projections. The data in this section is organized
beginning with births through high school. Live birth data is provided on page A2, which is used in part to develop
pre-kindergarten and kindergarten projections on pages A3 and A4. Data tables for elementary, middle, and high
schools follow with detail information by school and by grade.

Methodology
The cohort survival model draws upon two major components to project future enrollment: live births for Fauquier
County residents and five years of actual enrollment data. The methodology uses the historical enrollment to evaluate
the grade-to-grade progression of students from one year to the next. Trends in the data and patterns of growth are
evaluated and applied to project future enrollment.
Pre-kindergarten and kindergarten: To project enrollment for pre-kindergarten and kindergarten, historical enrollment
is compared to live births. The ratio of actual enrollment in the pre-kindergarten or kindergarten year to live births in the
related birth year is used as a cohort to project future pre-kindergarten and kindergarten enrollment.
Grades 1 - 12: To project enrollment for grades 1 through 12, actual enrollment by grade level at each school is used to
determine how many students progressed from one grade level to the next grade in the following year. Using this data,
historical progression rates are typically calculated for periods of one to five years. The progression rate, also known as
the cohort survival ratio, provides an average percentage growth factor to use in projecting future enrollment.
Cohort Survival Ratios: This manual shows the cohort survival ratio for five years for elementary, middle, and high
schools.
Limitations: This methodology, while very useful, has several limitations. The model does not fully integrate other
factors into the projections such as economic conditions and activity related to new developments and building permits.
Also, enrollment projections are still only an estimate of future performance. Past performance and trend analysis data,
although very useful, will vary in its accuracy in predicting future performance. Finally, projections will be more accurate
on a division-wide basis than on an individual school basis. Factors that limit projections at individual schools include
size of the population being used, the addition of new classrooms at existing schools, changes in school boundary lines,
relocation of division-wide special programs, and changes in the pattern of development activity. To compensate for
these limitations, enrollment projections are updated annually and market conditions and trends are considered in
selecting cohorts and trend data.

ii

Capacity Defined
In using enrollment data as it relates to building capacity, it is important to understand that a distinction exists between
building capacity (also known as design capacity) and program capacity. Definitions are provided below:
Building (Design) Capacity: Building capacity is defined as the number of students who can be accommodated in a
given building, based upon the size and layout of the designed spaces. This figure is determined by State of Virginia
criteria at the time of construction. The State assumes a classroom design capacity of 25 students per classroom. At
the local level, School Board and administrative decisions regarding instructional programs may result in actual
classroom capacity that differs from the design capacity.
Program Capacity: The program capacity of a classroom takes into account the type of instructional program in the
classroom. Program capacity represents the number of students who can be accommodated in a space, based upon
the actual use of the space at the time. Program capacity may change from year to year as enrollment demographics
change. For example, the growth in enrollment of pre-kindergarten students may require an additional room be
designated as pre-K, thus reducing capacity in that classroom. Similar changes occur such as with special needs and
English as a Second Language programs. The current program capacity methodology for Fauquier County Public
Schools establishes maximum class sizes, which optimize instructional goals. The following class-size maximums are
being used:
Class/Program
Student/Teacher Ratio
Pre-Kindergarten
12:1
Kindergarten through 5th grade
24:1
th
th
6 grade through 8 grade
25:1
High School Academic and Health classrooms
25:1
High School English and Arts education
24:1
High School Business/Office education
25:1
High School Photography
16:1
High School Music
30:1
High School Vocational education
20:1
High School Main gym
30:1
High School Auxiliary gym
25:1
Self-contained, special education
8:1
In addition to classroom size, the Fauquier County School Board passed a resolution in November 2003, which
determined that student enrollment at its high schools should not exceed 1,200 students. The School Board also
iii

passed a resolution in April 2006 that elementary schools should be constructed for a student enrollment of 600 with
core facilities to accommodate 700 students. For middle schools, the School Board owns the Auburn Middle School
design as its middle school prototype that was designed for a student population of 660 expandable to 810.

Impacts on Data
Development Activity: The number of new dwelling permits issued decreased 23% from fiscal year 2014 to fiscal year
2015; however, fiscal year 2014 was a large increase (28%) over fiscal year 2013. The largest number of dwelling
permits continues to be issued in the Scott magisterial district (48%); however, the Lee magisterial district had a huge
(425%) increase in new dwelling permitting. Despite the spike last year in new housing permits, enrollment is relatively
flat with just a slight overall decrease.

SingleFamilyDwellingPermits
IssuedbyMagisterialDistrict
300

NumberofPermits

250
200

Center
Lee

150

CedarRun

100

Marshall
Scott

50
0
FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FiscalYear

iv

Birth and Enrollment Data

Live Births: The historical rate of live births for county residents is used to project future births and future enrollment at
the pre-kindergarten and kindergarten levels. Live births for Fauquier County are taken from birth certificates which
specify a Fauquier County residence, regardless of the location of the actual birth. As shown on page A2, live births
were generally declining from a 15-year high in 2007-2008 of 826 births to a 12-year low in 2012-2013. The most recent
live birth data available, October 2013 through September 2014, reports 756 births or an increase of 0.9% from the
previous years 749 births. The two-year average of births, 3.7%, is used to project increases in births in later years of
the enrollment projections. This growth rates captures the most recent trend in births. This two-year rate is used in
tables A3 and A4 to project future births and pre-kindergarten and kindergarten enrollment.

Historical Enrollment: Historical enrollment data is obtained from Fauquier County Public Schools records. The
enrollment data used is based on the official September 30 enrollment reported to the State Department of Education
each school year. Historical enrollment by school and by grade provides the data used as a cohort to determine future
enrollment at the next grade level at a given school. Using this data, survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods of
one to five years. In determining the appropriate cohort survival ratio to use for the projection, known current and future
market activity is considered as well as patterns of growth and progression in the school division. Historical enrollment,
cohort survival ratios and enrollment projections are detailed in the appendices A6 through A16. Projections are also
summarized in Section 2, Enrollment Summary, on pages 2 through 5.

Overview of the Enrollment Projections

Section 2, Enrollment Summary, is shown on pages 1 through 5. These pages provide (1) an overview of the
enrollment projections by school, and (2) a comparison of enrollment with school capacity. The chart on page 1
demonstrates that enrollment will exceed capacity at two elementary schools in the County over the next ten years;
however, enrollment in total or by school level is not projected to exceed 95% of program capacity.
The projections include enrollment totals for pre-kindergarten through grade 12. A brief synopsis of the methodology
and resulting projections is provided in the following summary.
Pre-Kindergarten (PK): In projecting PK enrollment, first the growth rate for live births was projected using a two-year
average of 3.7% (see A2). Next the actual PK enrollment was compared to total live births to obtain a future PK
enrollment growth rate (see A3). In SY 2011-2012 through SY 2014-2015, the PK enrollment ranged from 8.2% to
v

10.4% of live births four years earlier. In SY 2015-2016 the PK enrollment increased significantly to 15.2%. This is due
to the addition of three pre-schools added through the Virginia Pre-school Initiative. The ratio selected to project PK
enrollment is the one-year rate of 15.2% to capture the addition of these three new classes. For example, in SY 20162017, PK enrollment is projected to be 107 as of September 30, 2016, which is 15.2% of live births of 703 four years
earlier (2011-2012). During the projection horizon, PK enrollment begins to increase with the increase in births from the
12 year low in 2011-2012. However, if PK participation is further expanded, then the enrollment at the PK level will
increase accordingly. Such changes are not captured with this projection except to the extent it has occurred in the
historical performance.
Kindergarten (K): As with PK, the methodology used to project K enrollment incorporates the change in live births as a
key component. As mentioned earlier, live births are projected using the two-year average of 3.7% (see A2). Then
actual K enrollment is compared to total live births to obtain a K enrollment growth rate (see A4). To project K
enrollment the two-year average of 94.2% is used as this percentage is the same for two years in-a-row. This rate is the
average of the past two years. Using this average in SY 2016-2017, K enrollment is projected to be 715 as of
September 30, 2016, which is 94.2% of live births of 759 five years earlier (2010-2011). K enrollment is projected to
increase from 713 in the current year to 887 in SY 2025-2026.
In developing K enrollment projections by school, the enrollment for each school for SY 2015-2016 is calculated as a
percentage of the division-wide kindergarten enrollment, and shown in a separate column on page A4. This percentage
by school is then used to allocate future K enrollment projections for each school. For example, as shown in this table,
in SY 2015-2016 Bradleys enrollment of 61 was 8.6% of the total kindergarten enrollment of 713. By applying Bradleys
8.6% allocation to the SY 2016-2017 K projected enrollment of 715, it results in a K enrollment projection for Bradley of
61 kindergarten students.
The graph on page A5 compares projected K enrollment (shown by the blue bars) to projected live births (shown by the
red line). As the graphs portrays, birth exceed projected K enrollment for the ten-year period. The last year that K
enrollment exceeded births was in 2010-2011, since that time there have been fewer students attending Kindergarten
then were born five-years prior.
Elementary: Elementary school historical enrollment is provided for each school for SY 2011-2012 through SY 20152016. Using this information and the kindergarten enrollment, cohort survival ratios are calculated for periods of one to
five years. A cohort survival ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment in a given year to
the prior grade one year earlier. In this projection, the two-year cohort ratios were deemed to provide the best
projections by school and used. The two-year enrollment change is a decrease of 1.1% for the elementary schools
division-wide.
vi

Middle: Middle school historical enrollment is provided for each school from SY 2011-2012 through SY 2015-2016. A
cohort survival ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment from one grade level in a given
year to the next grade level in the following year. Enrollments were modeled for SY 2012-2013 due to a middle school
redistricting. Cohort survival ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years. For the purpose of this projection, the
three-year ratio is used to project future enrollment in part due to the smaller upcoming fifth grade. The three-year
enrollment projection is 1.1% decrease division-wide at the middle school level.
For middle school enrollment projections, the transition of fifth graders from elementary schools to sixth grade in the
middle schools must be determined. Because the school division does not use feeder schools, it is necessary to
assume progression from fifth grade to sixth grade based on division-wide numbers and historical representation at
each school. For example, in SY 2015-2016 the division-wide fifth grade enrollment is 780. In SY 2015-2016 Auburn
Middle School sixth grade enrollment is 170, or 20.0% of the total fifth grade enrollment. A similar allocation is made for
each middle school. The detailed ratios and projections are provided in the appendices on pages A12 and A13.
Due to development activity focused in specific areas, and the modeling of student enrollment at the middle schools, the
division-wide ratios are more accurate than the ratios by individual schools.
High: High school enrollment projections follow the same process used at the elementary and middle schools. High
school historical enrollment is provided for each school from SY 2011-2012 through SY 2015-2016. A cohort survival
ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment from one grade level in a given year to the next
grade level in the following year. Survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years.
For the purpose of this projection, the two-year ratio is used to project future enrollment. The two-year enrollment
growth is 1.8% division-wide at the high school level. Because the school division does not use feeder schools, it is
necessary to assume progression from eighth grade to ninth grade based on division-wide numbers and historical
representation at each school. The cohort ratios for individual schools are added together to achieve a division-wide
cohort as described for middle schools.
Summary: The capacity and enrollment projections on page 1 shows that at the elementary level two schools should
be monitored; Pierce and Greenville elementary schools. Both are projected to exceed their total program capacity
during the ten-year period. Overall, among the 11 elementary schools, sufficient program capacity is projected for all 10
years.
At the middle school level, the SY 2012-2013 redistricting appears to have achieved its goal. None of the middle
schools are projected to exceed their program capacity during the 10-year period.
vii

The high schools currently reflect sufficient capacity at all three schools for the projection period. This is due in part to
two changes that were made to program capacity. First, the addition to Fauquier high school increased its program
capacity. Second, the methodology for high schools was reviewed in 2013 and adjusted to account for building design.
Kettle Run high school and the addition at Fauquier high school were designed to allow for a higher utilization of
classrooms that is now reflected in the program capacity numbers.
At the end of the 10-year projection period, it is anticipated that Fauquier County Public Schools will decrease in its
enrollment. School year 2025-2026 is projected to have an enrollment of 10,885 or just 1.4% less than the current year.
This is all based on trend analysis that is slow to react to shifts in trend data. It is thought that the enrollment is
beginning to experience a shift from slightly declining enrollment to growth enrollment instead of just a minor downward
fluctuation; however, insufficient data is currently available. The current approved subdivisions in the county have the
potential to increase enrollment by an estimated 1,300 students. Next years enrollment forecast may reflect a different
picture.

Contact
For questions regarding these projections, please contact the Office of Budget and Planning at (540) 422-7036.

viii

ENROLLMENT SUMMARY
Page 1

School Capacity and Projections: This table provides data on program capacity by school as
well as projected enrollment for ten years. This information is used in evaluating future
construction needs.

Page 2

Enrollment Summary by School: This data table provides enrollment history for five years by
school. It also provides a ten-year summary of the enrollment projections for each school.
Additional detail on the projections is provided in the Appendices.

Page 3

Enrollment Summary by Grade: This table provides a division-wide summary of enrollment

by grade, including five prior years and ten projected years.

Page 4

Division-wide Enrollment Chart: The chart demonstrates the division-wide growth in

enrollment for five prior years and ten projected years.

Page 5

Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment Chart: This chart demonstrates the growth
in enrollment by category of school for five prior years and ten projected years.

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

School Capacity and Projections

Program
Capacity

95%
Cap

Actual
2015-16 % Cap

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

Projected Enrollment
2020-21
2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

447
324
591
417
1,779

457
331
600
426
1,814

474
345
622
444
1,885

490
357
642
458
1,947

507
370
665
476
2,018

387
447
617
453
268
2,172

391
454
625
458
272
2,200

399
463
635
466
276
2,239

414
480
659
483
284
2,320

429
498
680
499
293
2,399

444
518
705
518
303
2,488

383
276
659

380
261
641

383
264
647

389
270
659

404
278
682

414
286
700

429
297
726

4,590
1,586

4,548
1,628

4,569
1,607

4,626
1,550

4,712
1,464

4,887
1,289

5,046
1,130

5,232
944

532
625
469
469
434
2,530
664

535
592
452
452
421
2,452
742

541
600
458
457
426
2,481
713

529
586
447
446
417
2,425
769

525
582
444
444
414
2,410
784

516
572
437
436
407
2,367
827

502
556
425
424
396
2,303
891

500
554
423
423
394
2,295
899

500
554
423
422
394
2,292
902

1,283
1,231
1,215
3,729
613

1,277
1,198
1,188
3,663
679

1,264
1,191
1,186
3,641
701

1,238
1,166
1,155
3,559
783

1,218
1,148
1,136
3,502
840

1,217
1,147
1,136
3,500
842

1,198
1,130
1,118
3,446
896

1,196
1,128
1,115
3,439
903

1,173
1,106
1,093
3,372
970

1,169
1,102
1,090
3,361
981

10,926

10,798

10,683

10,588

10,496

10,536

10,525

10,629

10,713

10,885

ES South
Miller
Pearson
Pierce
Walter
Subtotal South

580
532
560
588
2,260

551
505
532
559
2,147

467
396
557
417
1,837

80.5%
74.4%
99.5%
70.9%
81.3%

454
382
560
421
1,817

445
356
568
416
1,785

439
345
577
417
1,778

440
336
574
408
1,758

440
320
584
412
1,756

ES Central
Bradley
Brumfield
Greenville
Ritchie
Smith
Subtotal Central

588
716
604
548
572
3,028

559
680
574
521
543
2,877

451
518
491
415
357
2,232

76.7%
72.3%
81.3%
75.7%
62.4%
73.7%

441
505
529
412
330
2,217

422
476
550
413
291
2,152

411
462
578
418
285
2,154

387
454
587
433
270
2,131

520
368
888

494
350
844

386
282
668

74.2%
76.6%
75.2%

390
290
680

390
278
668

384
274
658

6,176

5,867

4,737
1,439

76.7%
23.3%

4,714
1,462

4,605
1,571

MS
Auburn
Cedar Lee
Marshall
Taylor
Warrenton
TOTAL MIDDLE
Available Capacity

657
789
656
547
545
3,194

624
750
623
520
518
3,034

559
626
480
481
438
2,584
610

85.1%
79.3%
73.2%
87.9%
80.4%
80.9%
19.1%

528
615
457
456
428
2,483
711

HS
Fauquier
Kettle Run
Liberty
TOTAL HIGH
Available Capacity

1,612
1,360
1,370
4,342

1,531
1,292
1,302
4,125

1,283
1,224
1,214
3,721
621

79.6%
90.0%
88.6%
85.7%
14.3%

13,712

13,026

11,042

80.5%

ES North
Coleman
Thompson
Subtotal North
TOTAL ELEMENTARY
Available Capacity

District Total
Annual Enrollment Growth

Notes:

-0.1%

-1.0%

-1.2%

-1.1%

-0.9%

-0.9%

0.4%

-0.1%

1.0%

0.8%

1.6%

Enrollment meets or exceeds 95% of capacity; impact from approved/pending new development projects not fully captured by projections.
Program capacity does not include modular classrooms added to provide temporary space.
Enrollment includes pre-kindergarten.

Program capacity for the middle schools has been updated (2015/16) based on theMiddle School Comparative Analysis.
Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page 1

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment Summary by School
Actual and Projected
Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Elementary Schools
Bradley
Brumfield
Coleman
Greenville
Miller
Pearson
Pierce
Ritchie
Smith
Thompson
Walter
Total Elementary
Annual Change

498
587
344
500
484
378
532
466
461
286
482
5,018
(65)

478
618
328
483
487
373
516
418
434
275
418
4,828
(190)

489
572
337
488
470
401
526
412
426
263
422
4,806
(22)

491
564
343
492
462
420
539
383
388
293
422
4,797
(9)

451
518
386
491
467
396
557
415
357
282
417
4,737
(60)

441
505
390
529
454
382
560
412
330
290
421
4,714
(23)

422
476
390
550
445
356
568
413
291
278
416
4,605
(109)

411
462
384
578
439
345
577
418
285
274
417
4,590
(15)

387
454
383
587
440
336
574
433
270
276
408
4,548
(42)

387
447
380
617
440
320
584
453
268
261
412
4,569
21

391
454
383
625
447
324
591
458
272
264
417
4,626
57

399
463
389
635
457
331
600
466
276
270
426
4,712
86

414
480
404
659
474
345
622
483
284
278
444
4,887
175

429
498
414
680
490
357
642
499
293
286
458
5,046
159

444
518
429
705
507
370
665
518
303
297
476
5,232
186

Middle Schools
Auburn
Cedar Lee
Marshall
Taylor
Warrenton
Total Middle
Annual Change

609
662
492
371
538
2,672
32

598
668
497
396
516
2,675
3

602
642
493
443
505
2,685
10

581
606
470
452
437
2,546
(139)

559
626
480
481
438
2,584
38

528
615
457
456
428
2,483
(101)

532
625
469
469
434
2,530
46

535
592
452
452
421
2,452
(77)

541
600
458
457
426
2,481
29

529
586
447
446
417
2,425
(57)

525
582
444
444
414
2,410
(15)

516
572
437
436
407
2,367
(43)

502
556
425
424
396
2,303
(64)

500
554
423
423
394
2,295
(9)

500
554
423
422
394
2,292
(3)

High Schools
Fauquier
Kettle Run
Liberty
Total High
Annual Change

1,200
1,086
1,225
3,511
(7)

1,191
1,134
1,204
3,529
18

1,224
1,183
1,186
3,593
64

1,278
1,225
1,209
3,712
119

1,283
1,224
1,214
3,721
9

1,283
1,231
1,215
3,729
8

1,277
1,198
1,188
3,663
(66)

1,264
1,191
1,186
3,641
(22)

1,238
1,166
1,155
3,559
(82)

1,218
1,148
1,136
3,502
(57)

1,217
1,147
1,136
3,500
(2)

1,198
1,130
1,118
3,446
(54)

1,196
1,128
1,115
3,439
(7)

1,173
1,106
1,093
3,372
(67)

1,169
1,102
1,090
3,361
(11)

11,032

11,084

11,055

11,042

10,926

District Total
Annual Increase (#)
Annual Increase (%)

11,201
(40)
-0.4%

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

(169)
-1.5%

52
0.5%

(29)
-0.3%

(13)
-0.1%

(116)
-1.0%

10,798
(129)
-1.2%

10,683
(114)
-1.1%

10,588
(95)
-0.9%

10,496
(93)
-0.9%

10,536
40
0.4%

10,525
(11)
-0.1%

10,629
104
1.0%

10,713
83
0.8%

10,885
172
1.6%

Page 2

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment Summary by Grade
Actual and Projected

Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Elementary Schools
Pre-Kindergarten
Kindergarten
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5

75
801
807
817
778
869
871

68
748
794
782
808
774
854

81
754
756
804
776
849
786

67
734
779
770
820
777
850

115
713
738
792
773
826
780

107
715
729
752
804
779
828

113
662
731
749
763
806
781

115
706
678
750
762
771
808

119
712
722
695
763
764
773

Total Elementary
Annual Change

5,018
(65)

4,828
(190)

4,806
(22)

4,797
(9)

4,737
(60)

4,714
(23)

4,605
(109)

4,590
(15)

4,548
(42)

891
872
909

889
907
879

884
885
916

775
885
886

869
803
912

792
877
814

841
800
889

793
849
811

820
801
861

2,672
32

2,675
3

2,685
10

940
852
794
925

972
916
808
833

966
921
858
848

979
938
894
901

962
953
867
939

983
934
902
910

3,529
18

3,593
64

3,712
119

3,721
9

3,729
8

11,032

11,084

11,055

11,042

10,926

Middle Schools
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Total Middle
Annual Change
High Schools
Grade 9
Grade 10
Grade 11
Grade 12
Total High
Annual Change
District Total
Annual Change

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

3,511
(7)
11,201
(40)
-0.4%

(169)
-1.5%

52
0.5%

2,546
(139)

(29)
-0.3%

2,584
38

(13)
-0.1%

2,483
(101)

(116)
-1.0%

2,530
46

2,452
(77)

2,481
29

123
739
728
742
706
765
766

128
766
756
748
754
707
767

133
794
783
775
761
756
710

138
824
814
803
787
763
758

143
855
845
833
815
790
765

148
887
876
866
844
819
792

4,569
21

4,626
57

4,712
86

4,887
175

5,046
159

5,232
186

785
828
812

778
792
840

779
785
803

721
786
796

770
728
797

777
777
738

2,425
(57)

2,410
(15)

2,367
(43)

2,303
(64)

2,295
(9)

2,292
(3)

877
955
884
947

958
852
903
928

873
931
806
949

927
848
881
846

874
900
802
924

904
849
851
842

865
878
803
893

858
840
831
843

859
833
796
873

3,663
(66)

3,641
(22)

3,559
(82)

3,502
(57)

3,500
(2)

3,446
(54)

3,439
(7)

3,372
(67)

3,361
(11)

10,798
(129)
-1.2%

10,683
(114)
-1.1%

10,588
(95)
-0.9%

10,496
(93)
-0.9%

10,536
40
0.4%

10,525
(11)
-0.1%

10,629
104
1.0%

10,713
83
0.8%

10,885
172
1.6%

Page 3

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Division-wide Enrollment
Actual and Projected

12,000

11,000

11,201

11,032

11,084

11,055

11,042

10,926

10,798

10,683

10,588

Student Enrollment

10,000

10,496

10,536

10,525

10,629

10,713

10,885

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

School Year

Note: Enrollment as of September 30 each year, including Pre-Kindergarten.

Solid bars represent historical enrollment; dotted bars represent projections.
Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page 4

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment
Actual and Projected
6,000

5,232

5,000

5,046

5,018
4,828

4,806

4,797

4,887
4,737

4,714

4,605

4,590

4,548

4,626

4,569

4,712

Student Enrollment

4,000

3,529

3,511

3,593

3,712

3,721

3,729

3,663

3,641

3,559

3,502

3,500

3,446

3,439

3,372

3,361

3,000
2,672

2,675

2,685

2,546

2,584

2,483

2,530

2,452

2,481

2,425

2,000

2,410

2,367

2,292
2,303

2,295

1,000

School Year

Elementary

Middle

High

Note: Enrollment as of September 30 each year, including Pre-Kindergarten.

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page 5

APPENDICES - ENROLLMENT DETAIL

A1

Eligibility Conversion Table

A2

Birth Data and Growth Rates Table

A3

Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Projections Table

A4

Kindergarten Enrollment Projections Table

A5

Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Births Chart

A6

Elementary School Cohorts Table

A9

Enrollment by Elementary School Table

A12

Middle School Cohorts Table

A13

Enrollment by Middle School Table

A14

High School Cohorts Table

A15

Enrollment by High School Table

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Eligibility Conversion Table

If Date of Birth is
From
To
10/1/2010
10/1/2011
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
10/1/2017
10/1/2018
10/1/2019
10/1/2020
10/1/2021
10/1/2022
10/1/2023
10/1/2024

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

9/30/2011
9/30/2012
9/30/2013
9/30/2014
9/30/2015
9/30/2016
9/30/2017
9/30/2018
9/30/2019
9/30/2020
9/30/2021
9/30/2022
9/30/2023
9/30/2024
9/30/2025

Pre-Kindergarten
Eligible
School Year
Sep-2015
Sep-2016
Sep-2017
Sep-2018
Sep-2019
Sep-2020
Sep-2021
Sep-2022
Sep-2023
Sep-2024
Sep-2025
Sep-2026
Sep-2027
Sep-2028
Sep-2029

15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30

Kindergarten
Eligible
School Year
Sep-2016
Sep-2017
Sep-2018
Sep-2019
Sep-2020
Sep-2021
Sep-2022
Sep-2023
Sep-2024
Sep-2025
Sep-2026
Sep-2027
Sep-2028
Sep-2029
Sep-2030

16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30
30/31

Page A1

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Birth Data and Growth Rates
DATA FOR LIVE BIRTHS
Birth Month/Year

04-05

05-06

06-07

07-08

08-09

09-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

67
62
56
73
55
67
65
70
63
85
71
76

65
66
59
56
59
78
60
83
59
59
75
73

70
67
56
71
45
65
70
74
63
67
80
71

77
60
62
61
72
70
71
67
60
74
88
64

68
72
75
49
62
65
62
67
56
64
66
73

58
58
70
52
54
60
65
64
74
75
79
48

68
59
52
56
52
67
51
66
62
84
66
76

57
72
60
64
64
50
56
62
46
55
58
59

54
50
56
49
60
59
58
72
73
89
61
68

50
57
68
57
67
64
70
57
69
63
64
70

TOTAL ELIGIBLE

810

792

799

826

779

757

759

703

749

756

Annual Change (#)

Annual Change (%)

63
8.4%

-18
-2.2%

7
0.9%

27
3.4%

-47
-5.7%

-22
-2.8%

2
0.3%

-56
-7.4%

46
6.5%

7
0.9%

K ELIGIBILITY YEAR

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

16-17

17-18

18-19

19-20

LIVEBIRTHSFOR15YEARS
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

GROWTH RATE IN BIRTHS

Prior Years Average

1-Year
2-Year
3-Year
4-Year
5-Year

%
0.9%
3.7%
0.0%
0.1%
-0.5%

Page A2

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Projections

Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

% of
Total

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

10

11

10

10

8.7%

10

10

10

11

11

12

12

12

12

Brumfield

10

11

6.1%

Coleman

23

20.0%

22

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

0.0%

10

20

17.4%

19

20

20

21

21

22

23

24

25

26

Bradley

Greenville
Miller
Pearson

11

3.5%

Pierce

7.8%

10

10

10

11

11

12

Ritchie

11

10

15

12

23

20.0%

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Smith

10

8.7%

10

10

10

10

11

11

11

12

12

Thompson

0.0%

Walter

7.8%

10

10

10

10

11

11

12

75

68

81

67

115

107

113

115

119

123

128

133

138

143

148

(8)
-7.0%

6
5.6%

2
1.8%

4
3.5%

4
3.4%

5
4.1%

5
3.9%

5
3.8%

5
3.6%

5
3.5%

Total PK Enrollment
Annual Growth (#)
Annual Growth (%)

Birth Year

5
7.1%

(7)
-9.3%

13
19.1%

(14)
-17.3%

48
71.6%

100.0%

Actual Births
2012-13 2013-14

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Live Births (4 Yrs. Prior)

799

826

779

757

759

703

PK Cohort to Births
(% Actual PK to Birth)

9.4%

8.2%

10.4%

8.9%

15.2%

Averages: PK to Births
1-Year
15.2%
2-Year
12.0%
3-Year
11.5%
4-Year
10.7%
5-Year
10.4%

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

749

756

Projected Births
2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2021-22

784
814
844
876
908
Projection uses 2-year average birth rate growth

942
3.7%

977

Uses 1-year average of PK enrollment compared to births as a cohort to project future enrollment.

Page A3

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Kindergarten Enrollment Projections
Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Total

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

Bradley

70

77

87

66

61

8.6%

61

56

59

61

64

66

68

70

73

76

Brumfield

97

108

87

94

81

11.4%

81

75

80

81

83

86

90

94

97

101

Coleman

46

53

44

50

46

6.5%

47

43

47

46

48

49

52

54

55

58

Greenville

74

64

82

67

90

12.6%

90

84

89

90

93

97

100

104

108

112

Miller

80

84

73

78

74

10.4%

74

69

74

74

77

80

83

86

90

93

Pearson

68

60

67

72

55

7.7%

55

50

54

55

57

59

61

64

66

68

Pierce

97

86

94

86

91

12.8%

91

84

90

91

94

98

100

104

109

112

Ritchie

60

57

53

42

61

8.6%

61

57

60

61

63

66

68

70

73

76

Smith

76

50

62

52

45

6.3%

46

43

45

45

47

48

50

52

54

56

Thompson

55

49

39

57

42

5.9%

42

39

42

42

44

45

47

49

50

52

Walter

78

60

66

70

67

9.4%

67

62

66

66

69

72

75

77

80

83

Total K Enrollment

801

748

754

734

713

100.0%

715

662

706

712

739

766

794

824

855

887

Annual Growth (#)

Annual Growth (%)

(12)
-1.5%

(53)
-6.6%

6
0.8%

(20)
-2.7%

(21)
-2.9%

2
0.3%

(53)
-7.4%

44
6.6%

6
0.8%

27
3.8%

27
3.7%

28
3.7%

30
3.8%

31
3.8%

32
3.7%

Projected Births
Birth Year

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

Live Births (5 Yrs Prior)

792

799

826

779

757

K Enrollment to Births

101.1%

93.6%

91.3%

94.2%

94.2%

Averages: Births to K
1-Year
94.2%
2-Year
94.2%
3-Year
93.2%
4-Year
93.3%
5-Year
94.9%

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

759

703

749

756

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

784
813
843
875
908
Projection uses 2-year average birth rate growth

942
3.7%

Uses 2-year average of K enrollment compared to births as a cohort to project future enrollment.

Page A4
Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Projected Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Actual/Projected Births

1,000

942

900

887
800

759
703

Enrollment #

700

715
662

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
16-17

17-18

18-19

19-20

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

24-25

25-26

Kindergarten Enrollment Year

K Enrollment

Births

Note: Birth data shown is for births occurring/projected for five years earlier.

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page A5

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Elementary School Cohorts
Actual Enrollment

Bradley

Greenville Total

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

5-Year

Select
2-Year

2014-15

2015-16

K
1
2
3
4
5

70
81
89
76
97
76
489

77
67
79
83
73
89
468

87
73
74
76
97
71
478

66
93
75
81
74
92
481

61
67
88
74
80
71
441

101.5%
94.6%
98.7%
98.8%
96.0%
91.7%

104.6%
98.2%
104.0%
98.1%
95.3%
96.1%

101.3%
101.7%
101.3%
104.6%
95.9%
98.1%

100.0%
100.6%
99.1%
102.5%
94.7%
97.5%

102.1%
102.3%
98.5%
104.2%
95.2%
97.5%

104.6%
98.2%
104.0%
98.1%
95.3%
96.1%

K
1
2
3
4
5

97
91
87
99
108
95
577

108
96
98
95
102
110
609

87
95
95
86
98
100
561

94
87
95
99
81
100
556

81
86
83
89
90
82
511

91.5%
95.4%
93.7%
90.9%
101.2%
91.9%

95.6%
97.8%
99.0%
92.4%
101.7%
95.5%

92.7%
98.2%
95.1%
96.1%
100.4%
94.3%

94.3%
100.5%
98.4%
97.9%
100.8%
97.1%

93.1%
100.0%
98.5%
100.0%
100.4%
97.1%

95.6%
97.8%
99.0%
92.4%
101.7%
95.5%

K
1
2
3
4
5

46
60
51
59
54
74
344

53
48
63
54
56
54
328

44
62
52
66
58
55
337

50
47
64
54
65
63
343

46
57
59
70
64
67
363

114.0%
125.5%
109.4%
118.5%
103.1%
105.8%

110.6%
112.8%
106.9%
107.5%
105.7%
103.8%

112.9%
111.5%
106.2%
107.5%
103.4%
103.5%

110.9%
109.7%
106.1%
104.3%
102.6%
101.4%

106.6%
104.0%
107.8%
101.7%
104.7%
101.4%

110.6%
112.8%
106.9%
107.5%
105.7%
103.8%

K
1
2
3
4
5

74
69
71
76
105
99
494

64
77
70
82
80
105
478

82
75
84
68
83
88
480

67
92
83
90
69
86
487

90
73
99
84
77
68
491

109.0%
107.6%
101.2%
85.6%
98.6%
100.8%

110.7%
109.0%
104.2%
92.4%
101.3%
101.1%

112.7%
109.0%
102.1%
95.4%
104.3%
100.9%

110.5%
107.4%
105.2%
97.8%
103.0%
99.9%

110.6%
110.9%
103.4%
102.7%
105.4%
99.9%

110.7%
109.0%
104.2%
92.4%
101.3%
101.1%

Coleman Total
Greenville

4-Year

2013-14

Brumfield Total
Coleman

3-Year

2012-13

Bradley Total
Brumfield

Cohort Survival Ratios

1-Year

2-Year

2011-12

Page A6

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Elementary School Cohorts
Actual Enrollment

Miller

Ritchie Total

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

5-Year

Select
2-Year

2014-15

2015-16

K
1
2
3
4
5

80
83
74
78
80
79
474

84
83
75
73
80
83
478

73
79
76
77
81
81
467

78
71
77
75
76
79
456

74
74
70
75
73
81
447

94.9%
98.6%
97.4%
97.3%
106.6%
98.0%

96.0%
98.0%
98.0%
98.0%
101.9%
97.8%

95.3%
95.7%
99.6%
102.2%
101.7%
97.8%

97.5%
94.3%
99.3%
102.3%
102.2%
98.6%

98.0%
97.9%
98.7%
101.8%
103.9%
98.6%

96.0%
98.0%
98.0%
98.0%
101.9%
97.8%

K
1
2
3
4
5

68
64
66
64
54
56
372

60
65
67
65
57
55
369

67
63
66
65
68
61
390

72
65
61
70
73
71
412

55
69
57
60
79
72
392

95.8%
87.7%
98.4%
112.9%
98.6%
95.2%

96.4%
92.2%
102.4%
112.6%
101.4%
100.3%

99.0%
95.3%
100.5%
110.0%
103.0%
102.0%

98.1%
97.7%
100.0%
104.9%
102.8%
101.3%

93.7%
93.8%
100.0%
99.1%
97.5%
101.3%

96.4%
92.2%
102.4%
112.6%
101.4%
100.3%

K
1
2
3
4
5

97
93
87
79
79
89
524

86
88
91
87
80
75
507

94
83
82
94
85
80
518

86
93
92
86
95
82
534

91
85
101
90
86
95
548

98.8%
108.6%
97.8%
100.0%
100.0%
102.6%

98.9%
109.7%
101.2%
100.6%
98.3%
102.9%

98.1%
104.2%
101.9%
99.6%
98.9%
102.6%

96.1%
102.5%
101.4%
100.0%
97.9%
101.2%

96.9%
101.8%
99.3%
99.3%
99.5%
101.2%

98.9%
109.7%
101.2%
100.6%
98.3%
102.9%

K
1
2
3
4
5

60
80
71
65
86
93
455

57
60
74
64
65
88
408

53
62
64
76
71
71
397

42
50
68
66
74
71
371

61
50
60
70
73
78
392

119.1%
120.0%
102.9%
110.6%
105.4%
105.7%

105.3%
114.3%
103.0%
103.5%
102.8%
99.4%

106.6%
111.6%
102.9%
105.8%
104.8%
98.6%

104.7%
105.6%
99.6%
104.4%
104.1%
96.1%

105.2%
104.0%
101.2%
103.1%
103.4%
96.1%

105.3%
114.3%
103.0%
103.5%
102.8%
99.4%

Pierce Total
Ritchie

4-Year

2013-14

Pearson Total
Pierce

3-Year

2012-13

Miller Total

Pearson

Cohort Survival Ratios

1-Year

2-Year

2011-12

Page A7

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Elementary School Cohorts
Actual Enrollment

Cohort Survival Ratios

3-Year

4-Year

5-Year

Select
2-Year

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

K
1
2
3
4
5

76
66
80
80
71
88
461

50
82
62
78
82
73
427

62
51
82
68
77
77
417

52
66
47
77
64
75
381

45
52
59
46
80
65
347

100.0%
89.4%
97.9%
103.9%
101.6%
91.1%

103.5%
90.6%
95.4%
99.3%
99.3%
91.2%

103.1%
94.5%
100.0%
99.1%
97.3%
93.5%

104.6%
94.3%
99.3%
100.0%
98.6%
93.2%

104.6%
95.7%
100.6%
98.7%
98.4%
93.2%

103.5%
90.6%
95.4%
99.3%
99.3%
91.2%

K
1
2
3
4
5

55
38
53
35
63
36
280

49
50
32
46
35
63
275

39
49
56
36
44
39
263

57
40
53
54
43
46
293

42
57
42
49
54
38
282

100.0%
105.0%
92.5%
100.0%
88.4%
96.3%

101.0%
106.7%
94.5%
107.8%
96.6%
103.4%

100.7%
108.6%
98.6%
103.7%
100.8%
100.8%

98.0%
103.4%
95.4%
102.9%
100.5%
100.2%

96.7%
103.5%
92.4%
103.5%
95.7%
100.2%

101.0%
106.7%
94.5%
107.8%
96.6%
103.4%

K
1
2
3
4
5

78
82
88
67
72
86
473

60
78
71
81
64
59
413

66
64
73
64
87
63
417

70
75
55
68
63
85
416

67
68
74
66
70
63
408

97.1%
98.7%
120.0%
102.9%
100.0%
98.1%

105.2%
92.8%
104.7%
100.8%
98.7%
98.9%

105.6%
93.1%
99.5%
103.3%
98.6%
99.6%

104.0%
91.3%
97.2%
101.4%
94.4%
96.2%

105.5%
92.1%
98.9%
101.7%
95.7%
96.2%

105.2%
92.8%
104.7%
100.8%
98.7%
98.9%

Elementary Summary K
1
2
3
4
5
Total Elementary

801
807
817
778
869
871
4,943

748
794
782
808
774
854
4,760

754
756
804
776
849
786
4,725

734
779
770
820
777
850
4,730

713
738
792
773
826
780
4,622

100.5%
101.7%
100.4%
100.7%
100.4%
97.7%

102.0%
101.8%
101.2%
100.4%
100.3%
98.9%

101.7%
101.6%
100.6%
102.0%
100.7%
99.0%

101.0%
100.4%
100.1%
101.4%
100.0%
98.3%

100.6%
100.4%
100.0%
101.3%
100.1%
98.3%

102.0%
101.8%
101.2%
100.4%
100.3%
98.9%

Smith

Smith Total
Thompson

Thompson Total
Walter

Walter Total

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

1-Year

2-Year

2011-12

Page A8

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment by Elementary School
Actual and Projected
Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Bradley
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

9
70
81
89
76
97
76
498

10
77
67
79
83
73
89
478

11
87
73
74
76
97
71
489

10
66
93
75
81
74
92
491

10
61
67
88
74
80
71
451

9
61
64
66
92
73
76
441

10
56
64
63
69
90
70
422

10
59
59
63
66
68
86
411

10
61
62
58
66
65
65
387

11
64
64
61
60
65
62
387

11
66
67
63
63
59
62
391

12
68
69
66
66
62
56
399

12
70
71
68
69
65
59
414

12
73
73
70
71
68
62
429

12
76
76
72
73
70
65
444

Brumfield
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

10
97
91
87
99
108
95
587

9
108
96
98
95
102
110
618

11
87
95
95
86
98
100
572

8
94
87
95
99
81
100
564

7
81
86
83
89
90
82
518

7
81
77
84
82
82
92
505

7
75
77
75
83
76
83
476

7
80
72
75
74
77
77
462

7
81
76
70
74
68
78
454

7
83
77
74
69
68
69
447

8
86
79
75
73
64
69
454

8
90
82
77
74
67
65
463

8
94
86
80
76
68
68
480

9
97
90
84
79
70
69
498

9
101
93
88
83
73
71
518

Coleman
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

46
60
51
59
54
74
344

53
48
63
54
56
54
328

44
62
52
66
58
55
337

50
47
64
54
65
63
343

23
46
57
59
70
64
67
386

22
47
51
64
63
75
68
390

22
43
52
58
68
68
79
390

23
47
48
59
62
73
72
384

24
46
52
54
63
67
77
383

25
48
51
59
58
68
71
380

26
49
53
58
63
62
72
383

27
52
54
60
62
68
66
389

28
54
58
61
64
67
72
404

29
55
60
65
65
69
71
414

30
58
61
68
69
70
73
429

Greenville
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

6
74
69
71
76
105
99
500

5
64
77
70
82
80
105
483

8
82
75
84
68
83
88
488

5
67
92
83
90
69
86
492

90
73
99
84
77
68
491

90
100
80
103
78
78
529

84
100
109
83
95
79
550

89
93
109
114
77
96
578

90
99
101
114
105
78
587

93
100
108
105
105
106
617

97
103
109
113
97
106
625

100
107
112
114
104
98
635

104
111
117
117
105
105
659

108
115
121
122
108
106
680

112
120
125
126
113
109
705

Page A9
Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment by Elementary School
Actual and Projected
Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Miller
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

10
80
83
74
78
80
79
484

9
84
83
75
73
80
83
487

3
73
79
76
77
81
81
470

6
78
71
77
75
76
79
462

20
74
74
70
75
73
81
467

19
74
71
73
69
74
74
454

20
69
71
70
72
68
75
445

20
74
66
70
69
71
69
439

21
74
71
65
69
68
72
440

21
77
71
70
64
68
69
440

22
80
74
70
69
63
69
447

23
83
77
73
69
68
64
457

24
86
80
75
72
68
69
474

25
90
83
78
74
71
69
490

26
93
86
81
76
73
72
507

Pearson
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

6
68
64
66
64
54
56
378

4
60
65
67
65
57
55
373

11
67
63
66
65
68
61
401

8
72
65
61
70
73
71
420

4
55
69
57
60
79
72
396

4
55
53
64
58
68
80
382

4
50
53
49
66
65
69
356

4
54
48
49
50
74
66
345

4
55
52
44
50
56
75
336

4
57
53
48
45
56
57
320

4
59
55
49
49
51
57
324

5
61
57
51
50
55
52
331

5
64
59
53
52
56
56
345

5
66
62
54
54
59
57
357

5
68
64
57
55
61
60
370

Pierce
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

8
97
93
87
79
79
89
532

9
86
88
91
87
80
75
516

8
94
83
82
94
85
80
526

5
86
93
92
86
95
82
539

9
91
85
101
90
86
95
557

8
91
90
93
102
91
85
560

9
84
90
99
94
103
89
568

9
90
83
99
100
95
101
577

9
91
89
91
100
101
93
574

10
94
90
98
92
101
99
584

10
98
93
99
99
93
99
591

10
100
97
102
100
100
91
600

11
104
99
106
103
101
98
622

11
109
103
109
107
104
99
642

12
112
108
113
110
108
102
665

Ritchie
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

11
60
80
71
65
86
93
466

10
57
60
74
64
65
88
418

15
53
62
64
76
71
71
412

12
42
50
68
66
74
71
383

23
61
50
60
70
73
78
415

21
61
64
57
62
72
75
412

22
57
64
73
59
64
74
413

23
60
60
73
75
61
66
418

24
61
63
69
75
78
63
433

25
63
64
72
71
78
80
453

26
66
66
73
74
73
80
458

27
68
69
75
75
77
75
466

28
70
72
79
77
78
79
483

29
73
74
82
81
80
80
499

30
76
77
85
84
84
82
518

Page A10
Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment by Elementary School
Actual and Projected
Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Smith
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

76
66
80
80
71
88
461

7
50
82
62
78
82
73
434

9
62
51
82
68
77
77
426

7
52
66
47
77
64
75
388

10
45
52
59
46
80
65
357

9
46
47
47
56
46
79
330

10
43
48
43
45
56
46
291

10
45
45
43
41
45
56
285

10
45
47
41
41
41
45
270

10
47
47
43
39
41
41
268

11
48
49
43
41
39
41
272

11
50
50
44
41
41
39
276

11
52
52
45
42
41
41
284

12
54
54
47
43
42
41
293

12
56
56
49
45
43
42
303

Thompson
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

6
55
38
53
35
63
36
286

49
50
32
46
35
63
275

39
49
56
36
44
39
263

57
40
53
54
43
46
293

42
57
42
49
54
38
282

42
42
61
40
53
52
290

39
42
45
58
43
51
278

42
39
45
43
63
42
274

42
42
42
43
46
61
276

44
42
45
40
46
44
261

45
44
45
43
43
44
264

47
45
47
43
46
42
270

49
47
48
44
46
44
278

50
50
50
45
47
44
286

52
51
53
47
49
45
297

Walter
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
subtotal

9
78
82
88
67
72
86
482

5
60
78
71
81
64
59
418

5
66
64
73
64
87
63
422

6
70
75
55
68
63
85
422

9
67
68
74
66
70
63
417

8
67
70
63
77
67
69
421

9
62
70
65
66
78
66
416

9
66
65
65
68
67
77
417

10
66
69
60
68
69
66
408

10
69
69
64
63
69
68
412

10
72
73
64
67
63
68
417

10
75
76
68
67
68
62
426

11
77
79
71
71
68
67
444

11
80
81
73
74
72
67
458

12
83
84
75
76
75
71
476

75
801
807
817
778
869
871
5,018

68
748
794
782
808
774
854
4,828

81
754
756
804
776
849
786
4,806

67
734
779
770
820
777
850
4,797

115
713
738
792
773
826
780
4,737

107
715
729
752
804
779
828
4,714

113
662
731
749
763
806
781
4,605

115
706
678
750
762
771
808
4,590

119
712
722
695
763
764
773
4,548

123
739
728
742
706
765
766
4,569

128
766
756
748
754
707
767
4,626

133
794
783
775
761
756
710
4,712

138
824
814
803
787
763
758
4,887

143
855
845
833
815
790
765
5,046

148
887
876
866
844
819
792
5,232

Elementary
Division-wide
PK
K
1
2
3
4
5
Total

Page A11
Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Middle School Cohorts
Actual Enrollment

Cohort Survival Ratios

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

871

854

786

850

780

6
7
8

191
201
217
609

197
195
206
598

204
195
203
602

175
208
198
581

170
180
209
559

20.0%
102.9%
100.5%
96.2%

21.1%
102.4%
101.0%
96.4%

22.1%
101.2%
102.0%
97.8%

22.2%
101.4%
102.1%
97.9%

22.1%
100.8%
102.2%
98.5%

22.1%
101.2%
102.0%
97.8%

6
7
8

222
229
211
662

216
230
222
668

203
207
232
642

184
206
216
606

223
195
208
626

26.2%
106.0%
101.0%
103.3%

24.9%
103.6%
102.7%
98.7%

24.5%
100.8%
102.0%
97.8%

24.6%
101.6%
100.7%
98.6%

24.7%
101.0%
100.8%
99.2%

24.5%
100.8%
102.0%
97.8%

6
7
8

170
157
165
492

167
163
167
497

164
166
163
493

137
167
166
470

162
145
173
480

19.1%
105.8%
103.6%
102.1%

18.3%
103.7%
101.8%
98.7%

18.6%
102.1%
101.2%
98.8%

18.7%
100.5%
102.5%
99.4%

18.9%
99.6%
101.8%
99.2%

18.6%
102.1%
101.2%
98.8%

6
7
8

115
113
143
371

152
134
110
396

160
152
131
443

147
159
146
452

166
142
173
481

19.5%
96.6%
108.8%
106.4%

19.1%
98.1%
102.6%
104.3%

19.0%
98.7%
101.1%
106.6%

18.6%
102.3%
100.4%
106.6%

17.5%
101.5%
100.4%
104.3%

19.0%
98.7%
101.1%
106.6%

6
7
8

193
172
173
538

157
185
174
516

153
165
187
505

132
145
160
437

148
141
149
438

17.4%
106.8%
102.8%
100.2%

17.1%
100.4%
99.7%
92.9%

17.4%
102.0%
100.2%
94.7%

17.6%
100.2%
100.5%
95.0%

18.5%
102.0%
100.0%
97.9%

17.4%
102.0%
100.2%
94.7%

Middle School Division-wide

6
891
7
872
8
909
Middle School Total
2,672

889
907
879
2,675

884
885
916
2,685

775
885
886
2,546

869
803
912
2,584

102.2%
103.6%
103.1%
101.5%

100.5%
101.8%
101.6%
98.1%

101.5%
101.0%
101.4%
98.9%

101.7%
101.2%
101.2%
99.2%

101.7%
101.0%
101.1%
99.6%

101.5%
101.0%
101.4%
98.9%

Total Grade 5

1-Year

2-Year

3-Year

4-Year

5-Year

Select
3-Year

2011-12

Auburn

Auburn Total
Cedar Lee

Cedar Lee Total

Marshall

Marshall Total
Taylor

Taylor Total
Warrenton

Warrenton Total

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page A12

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment by Middle School
Actual and Projected
Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Auburn
6
7
8
Auburn Total

191
201
217
609

197
195
206
598

204
195
203
602

175
208
198
581

170
180
209
559

172
172
184
528

183
174
176
532

172
185
178
535

178
174
189
541

170
180
178
529

169
173
184
525

169
171
176
516

157
171
174
502

167
158
175
500

169
169
162
500

Cedar Lee
6
7
8
Cedar Lee Total

222
229
211
662

216
230
222
668

203
207
232
642

184
206
216
606

223
195
208
626

191
225
199
615

203
193
229
625

191
205
197
592

198
193
209
600

189
200
197
586

188
191
204
582

188
189
195
572

174
189
193
556

186
175
193
554

187
187
179
554

Marshall
6
7
8
Marshall Total

170
157
165
492

167
163
167
497

164
166
163
493

137
167
166
470

162
145
173
480

145
165
147
457

154
148
167
469

145
157
150
452

150
148
159
458

144
153
150
447

142
147
155
444

143
145
149
437

132
146
147
425

141
135
147
423

142
144
136
423

Taylor
6
7
8
Taylor Total

115
113
143
371

152
134
110
396

160
152
131
443

147
159
146
452

166
142
173
481

148
164
144
456

157
146
166
469

148
155
148
452

154
146
157
457

147
152
148
446

146
145
153
444

146
144
147
436

135
144
145
424

144
133
145
423

145
142
135
422

Warrenton
6
7
8
Warrenton Total

193
172
173
538

157
185
174
516

153
165
187
505

132
145
160
437

148
141
149
438

136
151
141
428

144
138
151
434

136
147
139
421

141
139
147
426

134
143
139
417

133
137
144
414

133
136
137
407

123
136
136
396

132
126
136
394

133
135
126
394

889
907
879
2,675

884
885
916
2,685

775
885
886
2,546

869
803
912
2,584

792
877
814
2,483

841
800
889
2,530

793
849
811
2,452

820
801
861
2,481

785
828
812
2,425

778
792
840
2,410

779
785
803
2,367

721
786
796
2,303

770
728
797
2,295

777
777
738
2,292

Middle Schools Division-wide

6
891
7
872
8
909
Middle School Total 2,672

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page A13

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

High School Cohorts

Actual Enrollment
2014-15

2015-16

1-Year

2-Year

3-Year

4-Year

Select

2012-13

909

879

916

886

912

9
10
11
12

334
270
270
326
1,200

336
328
250
277
1,191

326
324
307
267
1,224

352
309
302
315
1,278

340
341
281
321
1,283

38.4%
96.9%
90.9%
106.3%
100.4%

38.4%
95.9%
92.1%
104.4%
102.4%

38.0%
96.1%
92.6%
105.1%
102.5%

37.7%
96.6%
92.6%
104.5%
101.7%

37.9%
95.3%
92.3%
104.3%
101.2%

38.4%
95.9%
92.1%
104.4%
102.4%

9
10
11
12

289
258
259
280
1,086

321
283
263
267
1,134

316
285
272
310
1,183

303
321
313
288
1,225

293
301
313
317
1,224

33.1%
99.3%
97.5%
101.3%
99.9%

33.1%
100.5%
103.3%
103.4%
101.7%

34.0%
96.5%
101.0%
107.9%
102.5%

34.4%
96.8%
101.2%
106.8%
103.0%

34.2%
97.9%
100.0%
104.7%
103.3%

33.1%
100.5%
103.3%
103.4%
101.7%

9
10
11
12
Liberty Total

317
324
265
319
1,225

315
305
295
289
1,204

324
312
279
271
1,186

324
308
279
298
1,209

329
311
273
301
1,214

37.1%
96.0%
88.6%
107.9%
100.4%

36.2%
95.5%
89.0%
107.4%
101.2%

36.4%
96.7%
89.8%
102.0%
100.3%

36.0%
96.6%
90.2%
103.7%
99.8%

36.1%
94.9%
89.6%
104.8%
99.1%

36.2%
95.5%
89.0%
107.4%
101.2%

High Schools Division-wide

9
10
11
12
High School Total

940
852
794
925
3,511

972
916
808
833
3,529

966
921
858
848
3,593

979
938
894
901
3,712

962
953
867
939
3,721

108.6%
97.3%
92.4%
105.0%
100.2%

107.7%
97.2%
94.7%
105.0%
101.8%

108.4%
96.4%
94.4%
105.0%
101.8%

108.1%
96.7%
94.5%
105.0%
101.5%

108.2%
96.0%
93.8%
104.6%
101.1%

107.7%
97.2%
94.7%
105.0%
101.8%

Total Grade 8

2013-14

Cohort Survival Ratios

2011-12

5-Year

2-Year

Fauquier

Fauquier Total
Kettle Run

Kettle Run Total

Liberty

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page A14

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment by High School
Actual and Projected
Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Fauquier
9
10
11
12
Fauquier Total

334
270
270
326
1,200

336
328
250
277
1,191

326
324
307
267
1,224

352
309
302
315
1,278

340
341
281
321
1,283

350
326
314
293
1,283

313
336
300
328
1,277

342
300
309
313
1,264

311
328
276
323
1,238

330
298
302
288
1,218

312
316
274
315
1,217

322
299
291
286
1,198

308
309
275
304
1,196

306
295
285
287
1,173

306
293
272
298
1,169

Kettle Run
9
10
11
12
Kettle Run Total

289
258
259
280
1,086

321
283
263
267
1,134

316
285
272
310
1,183

303
321
313
288
1,225

293
301
313
317
1,224

302
294
311
324
1,231

269
303
304
322
1,198

294
270
313
314
1,191

268
295
279
324
1,166

285
269
305
289
1,148

268
286
278
315
1,147

278
269
295
288
1,130

266
279
278
305
1,128

263
267
288
288
1,106

264
264
276
298
1,102

Liberty
9
10
11
12
Liberty Total

317
324
265
319
1,225

315
305
295
289
1,204

324
312
279
271
1,186

324
308
279
298
1,209

329
311
273
301
1,214

331
314
277
293
1,215

295
316
280
297
1,188

322
282
281
301
1,186

294
308
251
302
1,155

312
281
274
269
1,136

294
298
250
294
1,136

304
281
265
268
1,118

291
290
250
284
1,115

289
278
258
268
1,093

289
276
248
277
1,090

972
916
808
833
3,529

966
921
858
848
3,593

979
938
894
901
3,712

962
953
867
939
3,721

983
934
902
910
3,729

877
955
884
947
3,663

958
852
903
928
3,641

873
931
806
949
3,559

927
848
881
846
3,502

874
900
802
924
3,500

904
849
851
842
3,446

865
878
803
893
3,439

858
840
831
843
3,372

859
833
796
873
3,361

High Schools Division-wide

9
940
10
852
11
794
12
925
High School Total
3,511

Projections SY16/17-SY25/26

Page A15