Professional Documents
Culture Documents
27 OCT 2015
Maruti Suzuki
BUY
INDUSTRY
AUTOS
Rs 4,497
Target Price
Rs 4,991
Nifty
8,233
Sensex
27,253
MSIL IN/MRTI.BO
302
1,358 / 20,905
2,074
Rs 4,763 / 3,106
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
7.6
23.3
41.9
Relative (%)
8.7
23.0
40.0
56.21
14.44
FIIs
22.08
Navin Matta
navin.matta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7322
Sneha Prashant
sneha.prashant@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336
7.27
Financial Summary
(Rs mn)
Net Sales
EBITDA (adj.)
APAT
Diluted EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
2QFY16 2QFY15
139,337 123,038
22,694 15,208
12,256
8,625
40.6
28.6
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
2QFY16
3,53,335
3,84,749
1,39,337
93,124
4,180
19,339
22,694
178
6,694
1,371
17,193
4,937
12,256
12,256
2QFY15
3,21,898
3,72,675
1,23,038
87,749
3,698
16,383
15,208
348
5,989
1,933
10,805
2,179
8,625
8,625
YoY (%)
9.8
3.2
13.2
6.1
13.0
18.0
49.2
(48.9)
11.8
(29.0)
59.1
126.6
42.1
42.1
2QFY16
66.8
3.0
13.9
16.3
28.7
8.8
2QFY15
71.3
3.0
13.3
12.4
20.2
7.0
YoY (%)
(448.5)
(0.6)
56.4
392.6
854.8
178.5
1QFY16
3,41,329
3,83,159
1,34,249
90,448
4,631
16,494
22,676
190
6,716
1,720
17,490
4,776
12,714
(785)
11,929
QoQ (%)
3.5
0.4
3.8
3.0
(9.7)
17.2
0.1
(6.6)
(0.3)
(20.3)
(1.7)
3.4
(3.6)
2.7
1QFY16
67.4
3.4
12.3
16.9
27.3
9.5
QoQ (bps)
(53.9)
(44.9)
159.3
(60.4)
141.0
(67.5)
Page | 2
Volume Assumptions
(in units)
Domestic Petrol
% YoY
Domestic Diesel
% YoY
Domestic LCV
% YoY
Domestic sales
% YoY
Export sales
% YoY
Total sales
% YoY
FY14
721,925
9.7
331,764
-15.6
-
FY15
828,187
14.7
342,516
3.2
-
FY16E
894,442
8.0
411,020
20.0
-
FY17E
1,012,508
13.2
464,452
13.0
25,000
1,053,689
0.3
101,352
-15.8
1,155,041
-1.4
1,170,703
11.1
121,713
20.1
1,292,416
11.9
1,305,462
11.5
127,799
5.0
1,433,260
10.9
1,501,960
15.1
143,134
12.0
1,645,095
14.8
FY18E
1,113,759
10.0
496,964
7.0
28,750
15.0
1,639,473
9.2
161,742
13.0
1,801,215
9.5
FY14
325,727
0.5
405,765
7.3
FY15
335,969
3.1
376,763
(7.1)
FY16E
347,971
3.6
389,950
3.5
FY17E
359,024
3.2
405,548
4.0
FY18E
370,515
3.2
421,770
4.0
Net Realisations
(Rs/vehicle)
Dom vehicle ASP
% YoY
Exports ASP
% YoY
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Change In Estimates
(Rs mn)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj EPS (in Rs)
New
FY16E
571,778
94,301
55,179
182.7
FY17E
674,012
114,949
71,845
237.8
Old
FY16E
572,876
89,516
57,164
189.2
FY17E
680,472
111,441
73,652
243.8
% chg
FY16E
(0.2)
5.3
(3.5)
(3.5)
FY17E
(0.9)
3.1
(2.5)
(2.5)
Page | 3
3.0
18.0
2.0
16.0
1.0
14.0
12.0
(1.0)
10.0
(2.0)
8.0
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
(10.0)
20.0
21.5
19.4
20.5
19.5
17.5
16.0
15.1
Petrol
Diesel
EBITDA/vehicle (Rs)
100%
80%
30
32
32
32
28
28
28
2QFY16
(5.0)
4.0
21.0
1QFY16
22.0
4QFY15
5.0
5.0
3QFY15
10.0
24.0
2QFY15
15.0
6.0
4QFY14
20.0
3QFY14
Volume (% YoY)
1QFY15
70,000
18.0%
60,000
16.0%
31
60%
50,000
40%
40,000
14.0%
12.0%
20%
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
0%
10.0%
30,000
8.0%
20,000
6.0%
2QFY16
69
1QFY16
72
4QFY15
72
3QFY15
72
2QFY15
68
1QFY15
68
4QFY14
68
3QFY14
70
Page | 4
49.0%
44.0
44.2
44.0%
45.2
44.9
43.0%
80%
23
21
21
20
20
60%
8
17
6
17
8
15
9
16
8
17
6
17
40%
18
19
21
20
22
23
30
28
28
28
27
27
20%
41.0%
0%
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
40.0%
Avg P/E
+ 1 SD
- 1 SD
26
0.54 0.52 0.52 0.53
24
0.50
22
0.40
20
0.30
18
16
0.20
Oct-15
Mar-15
Aug-14
Jan-14
Nov-12
Jul-10
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
10
2QFY14
12
Apr-12
14
0.10
Sep-11
0.60
0.63 0.62
0.60 0.59 0.58
Feb-11
0.70
Jun-13
42.0%
42.8
2QFY16
45.0%
21
1QFY16
46.0%
100%
4QFY15
47.7
45.9
3QFY15
46.8
47.0%
Entry-Sedans
MPV
2QFY15
48.0%
Premium Hatch
UV
1QFY15
Compact
Mid-size
Page | 5
Peer Valuations
Ashok Leyland
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors
Hero Motocorp
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
SML Isuzu
CMP
(Rs/sh)
93
2,582
17,660
2,620
1,250
4,497
383
1,365
Mcap
(Rs bn)
264
747
479
523
738
1,358
1,301
20
TP
Rating
94
2,720
20,470
2,836
1,400
4,991
445
1,181
NEU
NEU
NEU
BUY
NEU
BUY
BUY
NEU
FY15
113.1
23.3
77.8
20.8
17.6
36.6
8.5
53.5
P/E (x)
FY16E
24.8
19.5
46.0
16.3
12.9
24.6
9.8
25.4
FY17E
17.7
17.3
28.5
14.7
11.0
18.9
7.2
20.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
27.9
13.0
10.0
15.9
13.0
11.2
41.7
25.0
15.3
14.2
11.4
10.1
10.6
8.2
6.8
19.7
13.9
11.0
4.4
4.0
3.3
27.5
15.9
13.0
FY15
4.9
27.7
26.9
36.2
16.6
16.9
23.8
14.1
RoE (%)
FY16E FY17E
19.7
24.7
33.1
32.3
36.0
42.8
40.8
38.0
19.4
19.7
21.5
23.9
19.9
21.0
23.6
24.6
Page | 6
(Rs mn)
Net Sales
Growth (%)
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
SG&A Expenses
Other Operating Expenses
EBIDTA
EBIDTA (%)
EBIDTA Growth (%)
Other Income
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax
Adj PAT
APAT Growth (%)
EO items (net of tax)
Reported PAT
Adj EPS
Adj EPS Growth (%)
(Rs mn)
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital
Reserves
Total Shareholders' Funds
Long-term Debt
Short-term Debt
Total Debt
Deferred Taxes
Long-term Provisions & Others
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block
CWIP
Investments, LT Loans &
Advances
Inventories
Debtors
Cash
ST Loans & Advances, Others
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Other Current Liabilities &
Provisions
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Misc Expenses & Others
TOTAL APPLICATION OF
FUNDS
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
437,918 499,707 571,778 674,012 761,355
0.1
14.0
14.5
18.1
13.0
313,488 350,771 383,663 450,914 521,528
13,681 16,066 19,440 22,550 23,903
21,181 23,577 27,081 31,212 33,559
37,697 41,485 47,293 54,387 58,194
51,871 67,808 94,301 114,949 124,170
11.8%
13.6%
16.5%
17.1%
16.3%
21.3
30.7
39.1
21.9
8.0
7,317
8,316
7,583 10,675 12,260
20,844 24,703 26,544 28,073 29,322
38,344 51,420 75,340 97,552 107,108
1,759
2,060
773
464
464
36,585 49,360 74,566 97,088 106,644
8,755 11,570 19,387 25,243 27,727
27,830 37,790 55,179 71,845 78,916
16.3
35.8
46.0
30.2
9.8
27,830 37,790 55,179 71,845 78,916
92
123
183
238
261
16.3
33.4
48.7
30.2
9.8
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
208,270 235,532 274,571 322,880 372,452
209,780 237,042 276,082 324,390 373,962
18,239
5,156
5,156
5,156
5,156
18,239
5,156
5,156
5,156
5,156
5,866
4,809
4,809
4,809
4,809
233,885 247,008 286,047 334,355 383,927
107,904 122,593 131,589 134,056 133,273
30,689 23,540 23,540 23,540 23,540
101,179 128,140 146,140 197,140 258,140
17,059
14,137
6,297
28,093
65,586
56,429
26,150
10,698
183
24,206
61,237
62,557
28,197
15,665
4,514
32,786
81,162
62,791
33,239 37,546
18,466 20,859
5,825
5,077
38,398 39,458
95,928 102,941
73,521 83,794
15,043
25,945
33,592
42,787
50,172
Page | 7
FY15E
37,112
760
36,352
2,060
24,703
15,265
(1,057)
77,323
(32,243)
45,080
(26,961)
(59,204)
(13,083)
(2,060)
31,997
(9,090)
(24,233)
(6,114)
183
FY16E
55,179
(0)
55,179
773
26,544
(7,713)
74,784
(35,540)
39,244
(18,000)
(53,540)
(773)
39,244
(16,140)
(16,913)
4,331
4,514
FY17E
71,845
0
71,845
464
28,073
6,470
106,852
(30,540)
76,312
(51,000)
(81,540)
(464)
76,312
(23,536)
(24,000)
1,312
5,825
FY18E
78,916
(0)
78,916
464
29,322
9,898
118,600
(28,540)
90,060
(61,000)
(89,540)
(464)
90,060
(29,344)
(29,808)
(748)
5,077
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM
EBITDA Margin
APAT Margin
RoE
RoIC
RoCE
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (days)
Debtors (days)
Payables (days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (days)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net D/E (x)
Interest Coverage (x)
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs/sh)
CEPS (Rs/sh)
DPS (Rs/sh)
BV (Rs/sh)
VALUATION
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
OCF/EV (%)
FCF/EV (%)
FCFE/mkt cap (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
28.4
11.8
6.4
14.1
17.7
13.6
29.8
13.6
7.6
16.9
15.6
16.7
32.9
16.5
9.7
21.5
21.8
21.3
33.1
17.1
10.7
23.9
28.4
23.6
31.5
16.3
10.4
22.6
32.3
22.4
23.9
1.9
14.2
11.8
47.0
(21.0)
0.4
(0.4)
21.8
23.4
2.0
19.1
7.8
45.7
(18.8)
0.1
(0.1)
25.0
26.0
2.0
18.0
10.0
40.1
(12.1)
0.1
(0.2)
97.4
26.0
2.0
18.0
10.0
39.8
(11.8)
0.0
(0.3)
210.2
26.0
2.0
18.0
10.0
40.2
(12.2)
0.0
(0.4)
230.8
92
161
12
694
125
205
25
785
183
271
46
914
238
331
67
1,074
261
358
84
1,238
48.8
6.5
20.2
5.3
2.4
2.6
0.3
35.9
5.7
16.4
5.8
3.4
2.4
0.6
24.6
4.9
12.0
5.7
3.0
2.9
1.0
18.9
4.2
9.6
8.5
6.1
5.6
1.5
17.2
3.6
8.4
9.9
7.5
6.6
1.9
Page | 8
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Maruti
Date
31-Oct-14
28-Jan-15
28-Apr-15
29-Jul-15
27-Oct-15
TP
5,500
5,000
4,500
CMP
3,240
3,688
3,648
4,274
4,497
Reco
NEU
NEU
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
3,376
3,816
4,267
4,802
4,991
4,000
3,500
3,000
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
2,500
Rating Definitions
BUY
: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL
: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Page | 9
Disclosure:
We, Navin Matta, MBA & Sneha Prashant, MBA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No
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Page | 10