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Analysis
Opening Mediterranean
Trade and Migration
The free-trade agreements
which the European Union
has signed with various countries around the Mediterranean Basin are primarily
designed to encourage further
regional economic integration. They also reflect new
thinking on migration, which
emphasises promoting development in the sending countries to reduce unregulated
flows.1
Serge Attal
Jean-Pierre Garson
Migratory flows precede, and then accompany, trade flows between the northern and southern edges
of the Mediterranean.
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Opening Mediterranean
Trade and Migration
Table
Belgium
Denmark
of which:
Population
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
909.8
9.5
1.0
140.3
15.4
5.3
0.6
81.7
9.0
222.7
..
..
France
3,596.6
614.2
17.1
Germany
7,173.9
3.3
1.5
572.7
15.9
..
206.3
..
35.7
16.0
5.7
197.7
5.5
2,014.3
28.1
17.7
0.2
81.9
1.1
26.4
0.4
Italy
991.4
..
..
94.2
9.5
40.5
4.1
Netherlands2
757.1
1.0
0.1
158.7
21.0
2.1
0.3
Norway
160.8
..
..
1.6
1.0
..
Spain
499.8
..
..
74.9
15.0
..
Sweden2
537.4
0.6
0.1
1.5
0.3
1.1
0.2
..
..
182.1
24.1
..
4.4
2.8
..
..
..
22.0
4.1
Switzerland
1,330.6
..
..
..
..
..
..
78.6
5.9
United Kingdom
2,060.0
..
..
..
..
..
..
29.0
1.4
.. not available.
1. Data from population registers for all countries except for France (1990 census), Italy and Spain (residence
permits) and the United Kingdom (Labour Force Survey).
2. 1994.
Source: OECD
North-South:
Asymmetrical Relations
The project to liberalise, in phases, trade
between Mediterranean Basin countries and the
European Union by the year 2010 shows similarities, and differences, with the precedent of
the integration of the three southern European
countries into the EEC. The first similarity is that
the candidates for integration Greece, Portugal and Spain previously, now the Maghreb countries and Turkey are not as yet deeply integrated
among themselves. 3 The bulk of their trade has
been directly with particular countries in western
Europe, with migration flows preceding, and then
accompanying, trade flows. Like the southern
European countries, the Mediterranean Basin
third countries accounted for a substantial share
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become more marked over the last 15 years. Exports from these third countries have followed
the same pattern and account for a very high
percentage of their total foreign trade.4 But much
less is at stake for the EU countries, because the
bulk of their non-EU trade is conducted with
other OECD countries. In addition, sending
countries are now more diverse, and the proportion of immigrants from central and eastern
Europe and parts of Asia is increasing (Figure).
Other differences should be highlighted, too.
The demographic situation around the Mediterranean Basin is one of contrasts. The countries
along the northern shore have completed their
demographic transition and their populations are
aging. Those on the southern shore, on the other
hand, continue to have very high fertility rates
and substantial cohorts of young people are
entering their labour markets. The potential for
migration is likely to remain high until 2010, the
proposed date when the free-trade area between
the European Union and some Mediterranean
third countries is to come into effect.
The economic context in western Europe is
unlike the conditions that prevailed in the 1960s
and 70s. Economic growth is weaker, unemploy-
Migration
Analysis
Closer Regional
Integration
Rocher/Jerrican
23
Figure
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 1994
Turkish immigrants as % of total inflows of migrants to Germany
Turkish exports to Germany as % of total Turkish exports
Imports from Turkey as % of total German imports
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 1994
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 1994
Source: OECD
Opening Mediterranean
Trade and Migration
FOCUS
OECD BIBLIOGRAPHY
in the incentive to emigrate. Closer regional integration in institutional terms, and financial transfers targeted on productive public expenditure,
could well stimulate productivity gains and thus
help to attract further foreign investment.
Opening-up is thus a venture worth the risk,
but trade liberalisation will have to be accompanied by measures that will speed social and institutional change, attract a larger inflow of foreign
24