Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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By: Z
Table Of Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction ________________________________5
1.1. When to Enter the Market? ...................................................................5
1.2. When to Exit the Market? ...................................................................10
1.2.1. Cut Your Losses Short ..............................................................10
1.2.2. Take Part of Your Profits...........................................................11
1.2.3. Let Your Profits Run .................................................................11
1.2.4. Take your profit when your trade runs out of steam ...................12
Chapter 1
Introduction
Dear forex friend, I would like to thank you for giving me the opportunity to present to
you the Street Smart ForexTM trading system. As I have promised there will be no
unnecessary information in this book. I assume that you are already familiar with the
concept of forex trading. If you are totally new to the forex trading game you can find all
of the necessary basic info inside the Chapter 2. All of the other chapters deal directly
with the system itself. You should read each chapter carefully. Everything is explained in
detail. The first chapter that you are just reading is just a short introduction to the logic
that is behind my "Street Smart ForexTM" trading system. The basic skeleton of each
trading system consists of two elements. Entering the trade and exiting the trade. Each of
those elements is equally important.
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Figure 1-1
As you can observe on the chart above the typical trading system has produced nine entry
signals during given period of time. Out of those nine signals only two would have
resulted in the net profit and the other seven signals would have produced the net loss.
Obviously something needs to be done about that.
Now have a look again at the same picture but without losing signals.
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Figure 1-2
It looks much better. Doesnt it?
You can imagine how dramatically the trading system would change if we could find the
method that filters out all those bad signals.
So I challenged myself to find it out. I knew that some bad signals would always be there
but I needed to find a way to minimize them.
After spending countless weeks and months fine tuning and testing different trading
szstems I found out that there were four elements that needed to be implemented into my
trading system in order to avoid the poor quality signals.
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follow next. That means we have only 50% chance to be right or wrong. In that case it is
the same as flipping a coin and saying Bearish or Bullish.
So the first objective of my trading system is to find a way to identify if the currency pair
that we want to trade is in the sideways market. If it is in the sideways market than we
wait or we move to the other currency pair. If it is not in the sideways market than we go
to the next step.
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Figure 1-3
Let us assume that on the 02/25 you get a bearish entry signal and even though the longterm trend is clearly bullish you decide to get in against the long-term trend. The market
does not move far enough in our direction, so we dont reach our target profit. Instead the
market reverses and we are stopped out facing a loss for this trade. It is not only a pity for
that trade, even more we miss to catch this nice 350 pips move!
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For this purpose I have developed a new concept (formula) which I call the Signal
Strength, where I combine the power of major forex indicators. We will use the formula
to calculate the target profit expectations.
implementing my entry strategy you have done everything you can to enter the trade with
a high probability that it will go in your direction. However, it doesnt mean that it will do
so immediately after you placed a trade. You need to give it some space. How much
space? Enough space so that you dont get stopped out all of the time while at the same
time tight enough so that if you are wrong you preserve majority of your capital to fight
another day.
If the stop loss is reached we will get out of the trade immediately, no questions asked.
You cannot cut corners with the stop loss rule. It needs to be followed every single time
without exception. Failure to follow the stop loss rule is the number one reason for failure
among beginning traders. It is true that sometimes price will turn around just after you get
out, but there is no way to know this in advance. It only takes a few stubborn incidents to
entirely devastate your initial trading capital.
have entered a trade or when you are already in with a current positive balance of 200
pips. In the first case the main focus is to protect your trading capital, in the second case
you dont need to protect your capital any more as you definitely will close your position
with profits. The focus hereby is to give your trade more space than when you entered the
trade in order to make even more money.
In order to be profitable in the long run we need to extract as much profit as possible from
every single trade. So we need to stay in the trade as long as the trade goes in our
direction. Most exit strategy methods out there, as for example a trailing stop, do not
fulfill above requirement as they will lead to exiting a position too soon. For this purpose
I have developed a Recursive Trailing Stop Formula that extracts as much profit from our
trade as possible.
1.2.4. Take your profit when your trade runs out of steam
Once the market has been recognized as sideways, all the signals which in the past
brought us to enter the market are not valid any more. That means that it is equally
probable that the market goes towards or against our trade. And the odds are definitely not
good enough for staying longer in the trade. Even more, if we would stick to the trade, it
could occur that we turn a win into a loss!
Havent you noticed how often the previous market trend is reversed, after the market has
been developing sideways for certain time period? Lets have a look at the picture
below
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Figure 1-4
In the picture above we can observe that after staying in the sideways market for a period
of time the price have completely changed its direction. Therefore if our trade enters a
sideways market after certain period of time we will get out of the trade and wait for the
next opportunity.
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Chapter 2
General Trading Tips
In this chapter I want to give you some general trading tips that may help you to improve
your trading, especially if you are a novice trader. If you are already an experienced trader
this chapter might not be of interest to you, so you might just throw a glance at it.
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Figure 2-1
Even though there are 100s of currency pairs out there, you should pay only attention to the
major currency pairs, which are the most traded. It is estimated that activity in these
currencies comprises more than 85% of the daily foreign exchange volume.
Liquidity is essential when trading foreign currencies. Currencies that are illiquid
generally will have wider trading costs (spreads), they also will have a much greater
chance to have "fast market" conditions where liquidity can be non-existent and volatility
greatly increased, and they are also often more susceptible to short term market
manipulation or deception, like false technical breakouts.
The major currency pairs are assumed to be:
EURUSD
USDJYP
USDCHF
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
EURGBP
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goods. When we sell, we get money for goods. But with currencies, we buy and sell
simultaneously since we get one currency for another one. This is why it is common
practice to consider that we get the first currency of the pair (base currency) when we buy
and give, respectively, the second currency (quote currency).
A standard lot for USDCAD is $100,000 US dollars. If we buy one lot of USDCAD, it
means that we get $100,000 US dollars and give a number of Canadian dollars equal to
100,000 times the actual exchange rate. If the current exchange rate of USDCAD is 1.1,
then buying one lot of USDCAD means that we get $100,000 US dollars and give
$110,000 Canadian dollars. The other way round if we sell one lot of USDCAD at the
same exchange rate, it means that we give $100,000 US dollars and get $110,000
Canadian dollars.
Most of the forex brokers offer also the possibility to trade mini lots, which are one tenth
of a standard lot (for example 10,000 units instead of 100,000 units).
Here you can find the lot and mini lot definition for the major currency pairs:
Currency Pair
Lot size
EURUSD
100,000 euros
10,000 euros
USDJYP
100,000 US dollars
10,000 US dollars
USDCHF
100,000 US dollars
10,000 US dollars
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
100,000 US dollars
10,000 US dollars
EURGBP
100,000 euros
10,000 euros
Table 2-1
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Currency Pair
Pip size
EURUSD
0.0001
USDCHF
0.0001
GBPUSD
0.0001
AUDUSD
0.0001
USDCAD
0.0001
USDJYP
0.01
EURGBP
0.0001
Table 2-2
EURUSD
10 US dollars
USDCHF
10 Swiss francs
GBPUSD
10 US dollars
AUDUSD
10 US dollars
USDCAD
10 Canadian dollars
USDJYP
EURGBP
10 British pounds
Table 2-3
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Example 1:
Sold 5 mini lots of EURGBP at 0.7915 and bought them at 0.7815:
In this example we made 100 pips. The pip value for EURGBP is 10 GBP, so the total
profit is 0,5 lots x 100 pips x 10 GBP per pip = 500 British pounds.
The exchange rate of GBPUSD was 1.8500 (for 1 British pound you can get 1.85 US
dollars), when the position was closed:
500 British pounds x GBPUSD exchange rate
= 500 British pounds x 1.85 US dollars / 1 British pound = $925 US dollars
Example 2:
Bought 2 lots of USDJPY at 105.60 and sold them at 105.20:
In this example, we made 40 pips (as we sold at a lower price than we bought). The pip
value for USDJPY is 1000 JPY, so the total profit is
= 2 lots x 40 pips x 1000 YPJ pip value per lot = 80,000 JPY yen.
The exchange rate of USDJPY was 105.20 (for 1 US dollar you can get 105.20 JPY yen),
when the position was closed. In order to get the amount of dollars we need to divide by
the exchange rate.
80,000 JPY yen / USDJPY exchange rate
= 80,000 JPY yen x 1 US dollar / 105.20 JPY yen = $760.46 US dollars
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Summary Tables
Currency
Profit in US dollars:
Profit in euros:
Pair
EURUSD
10 US dollars
10 US dollars / EURUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD
10 US dollars
10 US dollars / EURUSD
AUDUSD
10 US dollars
10 US dollars / EURUSD
USDCAD
USDJYP
EURGBP
Currency
Pair
EURUSD
10 US dollars x USDCAD
10 US dollars / AUDUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD
10 US dollars x USDCAD
10 US dollars / AUDUSD
AUDUSD
10 US dollars x USDCAD
10 US dollars / AUDUSD
USDCAD
10 Canadian dollars
USDJYP
EURGBP
Currency
Pair
EURUSD
10 US dollars / GBPUSD
10 US dollars x USDJYP
USDCHF
GBPUSD
10 US dollars / GBPUSD
10 US dollars x USDJYP
AUDUSD
10 US dollars / GBPUSD
10 US dollars x USDJYP
USDCAD
USDJYP
EURGBP
10 British pounds
The table is to be used as following: we trade 3 lots AUDUSD, make a profit of 50 pips ,
our deposit currency is in euros and the actual EURUSD exchange rate is 1.5, then our
profit in euros is: 3 lots x 50 pips x 10 US dollars / 1.5 (EURUSD exchange rate) = 1,000
euros
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Please, remind yourself that one of your main aims should not only to make profit, but
also to protect your trading capital.
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a forex broker
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may be out of 100s even 1000s of dollars. This is especially true when trading
currencies.
When choosing your broker, youll need to take into account several factors. You also
need to understand that while one broker may be an excellent choice for one form of
trading it may be a terrible choice for another form of trading. If you are not happy with
the service and performance that you receive from your broker you should look for
another one. It is not worth your time or money to be loyal to someone whose service
isnt working for you.
There are literally hundreds of brokers that you can choose from. When it is time to
choose your broker, take the time to get informed about several prospective brokers.
Although you can always change your broker later it is often a frustrating experience, so
try to do everything in your power to make sure that you do it right the first time. By
choosing your broker carefully you will save yourself valuable time and money.
Your forex broker should have the following properties:
Figure 2-2
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More trades you do, more money your broker makes. This is why many brokers that
cater to currency traders prefer traders who make many trades during the day. They
even hold courses that teach you how to scalp in and out of positions all day long.
Although this approach has worked out for some traders who were trading highflying
Nasdaq stocks in the late 90s for a currency trader it is a sure way to slowly lose all
of his money.
Here is an example of the danger of such a system. Lets say a trader has $2,000 in
capital and is using 1:5 leverage to buy/sell $10,000 per trade and lets say that he
trades 20 times daily as some of those courses and strategies teach. Average spread
being around 5 pips he would spend $5 per trade. At 20 trades per day this would
equal $100 per day in spreads. It is five percent of the traders capital each day just in
spreads. 20 trading days a month and it would equal 100% of traders capital each
month. You are better spending your money anywhere else.
The importance of spreads depends greatly on your trading style and your trading
system If my system generates several entry signals per day and you are using
relatively tight stops in order to limit your losses, then spread size is very important to
you. With such trading style the difference between a broker that has average spread
of 4 pips and a broker that has an average spread of 8 pips is of huge importance. 5
trades per day can mean $40 per day, $800 per month, $9,600 per year if you are
trading in $10,000 per trade. Adds up quickly, doesnt it?
Some forex brokers will request, in addition to the spread, a commission per trade.
For example they may ask 5$ for every lot you want to trade. One would normally
assume that brokers asking for commission are in any case more expensive than the
other commission-free ones. Well, that is not always the case, as brokers asking for
commissions offer typically much lower spreads than the commission-free ones.
For example assume that we have a broker A that requests for trading the major
currency pair EUR/USD 3 pips and a broker B that requests for trading the same
currency pair 1 pip plus 5$ per lot. What would be the costs for trading 1 lot
EUR/USD? With broker A the costs would be $30 per trade (3 pips x $100,000), with
broker B the costs would be $15 per trade (1 pip x $100,000 + 5$)!
So dont automatically disregard the brokers requesting commissions. Sometimes they
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are cheaper than the commission-free ones! In the Table 2-4 below you can find the
trading costs of several forex brokers at the time of this writing.
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companies are usually regulated by the US agencies CFTC and NFA, sometimes also
by agencies from other countries such as FSA (UK), SFBC (CH) or ASIC (AU).
Would you trust a brokerage company which is not regulated or even one which is
regulated by an offshore island? Second you will request that the brokerage company
is over five years in the market. And third that it has offices in several places around
the world, desirable of course also in your residence country.
Below you can find a list of brokers that are appropriate for forex trading (see Table 2-4).
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Account Conditions
Trading Costs
Company Reliability
Forex Broker
Min.
Deposit
Max.
Leverage
Commission
Spread on
Majors
Since
Regulated By
$200
100:1
No
2 to 4
2004
FSA (UK)
$2,000
100:1
No
2 to 3
2002
SFBC(CH)
www.alpari-idc.com
www.ac-markets.com
$2,000
100:1
No
2 to 3
1989
NFA(US),
FSA(UK),
ASIC(AU),
BAFIN(DE),
OSC(CA)
$200
400:1
No
3 to 4
2003
CFTC/NFA (US)
$300
200:1
No
1 to 2
2004
SFBC(CH)
$250
200:1
No
2 to 3
1998
CFTC/NFA (US)
$2,000
200:1
No
3 to 4
2006
Polyreg (CH)
$300
200:1
No
2 to 4*
1999
CFTC/NFA (US),
FSA(UK),
FSA(JAPAN)
$500
200:1
No
2 to 4
2004
NFA (US)
$250
400:1
No
3 to 5
2001
CFTC/NFA (US)
www.cmcmarkets.com/us
www.cmsfx.com
www.crownforex.com
www.forex.com
www.forex.ch
www.fxcm.com
www.fxlite.com
www.fxsol.com
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Account Conditions
Trading Costs
Company Reliability
Forex Broker
Min.
Deposit
Max.
Leverage
Commission
Spread on
Majors
$500
200:1
No
3 to 5
$250
400:1
No
3 to 5
2001
CFTC/SEC (US),
FSA (Japan),
ASIC (Australia)
$7,500
50:1
$3/100k
1 to 2
2000
CFTC/NFA (US)
$5,000
50:1
$2/100k
2 to 2
1998
$250
100:1
No
2 to 3
2001
NFA(US),
CFTC(US)
$400
100:1
Yes
1 to 2
2002
CFTC/NFA (US)
$200
100:1
No
3 to 5
2000
CFTC/NFA (US)
$2,000
200:1
No
2 to 3
2005
SFBC(CH)
$1
50:1
No
1.2 to 2.5
2001
CFTC/NFA (US)
$2,000
100:1
No
2 to 3
1998
DFSA(DK)
Since
Regulated By
CFTC/NFA (US)
www.gfsforex.com
www.gftforex.com
www.hotspotfx.com
www.interactivebrokers.com
www.interbankfx.com
www.mbtrading.com
www.mgforex.com
www.migfx.ch
www.oanda.com
www.saxobank.com
Table 2-4
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Free Charts
Metatrader
Website: http://www.metaquotes.net/metatrader/
Metatrader offers several technical indicators and time frames, but what sets the package apart is its builtin language for programming custom indicators and trading strategies. With this feature you can analyze
the market, enter pending orders, and automatically trigger trades generated by my system. It is the best
charting software for free out there.
Figure 2-3
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FXtrek
Website: http://quote2.fxtrek.com/misc/fxcm2.asp
FXtrek offers a suite of increasingly sophisticated packages. Here you can gain access to FXtrek's free
package, which makes for an extremely efficient starter kit for the beginning technician. The charts
feature the most popular time frames, including tick and 1 minute. In addition, it offers the most
commonly used indicators used for FX analysis. Java-based.
Figure 2-4
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Stratagem
Website: http://scharts.fxcorporate.com/
Designed for ease of use, this package contains a menu bar that allows you to execute the most common
charting actions with a single click of the mouse. The user friendly layout offers you the ability to
organize and tile workspaces. This package includes 14 technical indicators, 7 different time frames, and a
multiple-chart viewing capability. Java-based.
Figure 2-5
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Premium Charts
eSignal
Website: http://www.esignal.com
Costs: $115/Month plus Data feed $50/month for the FX
E-signal are a well established name in the charting software arena. E-signal offer reliable charts with a
slew of technical indicators, drawing tools, as well as alerts, back testing capabilities, and a helpful
support team. Windows based.
Figure 2-6
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Amibroker
Website: http://www.amibroker.com/
Costs: SOFTWARE COST: Professional - $229.00 one time purchase fee. Standard - $149.00 one time
purchase fee, FX DATA FEED COST: Varies based on Data feed Provider
AmiBroker offers a robust professional charting package with such features as alerts back-testing, and
indicator customization all accessible via a clear, user-friendly interface. AmiBroker is also noted for
their exceptional Customer Support team, which distinguishes itself with superior service quality and
efficiency. Windows based.
Figure 2-7
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CQG
Website: http://www.cqg.com/
Costs: SOFTWARE COST: $545/month, FX DATA FEED COST: $100/month
CQG charts offer a robust charting solution with alerts, back testing, the ability to export to excel, and a
large number of technical indicators. CQG provides worldwide data coverage including futures,
options, and stock exchanges. Windows based.
Figure 2-8
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Support/Resistance
Zigzag Signals
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Figure 2-9
The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average
(SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
A X period simple moving average (SMA) is calculated by adding up the closing prices
of the last X bars and then dividing that number by X. Lets say we plot a 3 period SMA
on the daily chart of the EUR/USD. The closing prices for the last 3 days are as follows:
Day 1: 1.4345
Day 2: 1.4360
Day 3: 1.4375
The simple moving average would be calculated as follows:
(1.4345+1.4360+1.4375)/3= 1.4360
Moving averages are available in almost all charting packages as signals to be added to
your chart. So actually you do not really need to understand how these signals are
calculated. You only need to know how to add them to your charts within your charting
software. In the picture below I show how to set the settings within eSignal for adding a
150 period EMA to a 5 minute chart. Something similar will be in any other charting
software.
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Figure 2-10
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Figure 2-11
The base line is the difference between a fast and slow exponential moving average. The
period of the fast EMA is given as the first parameter (12 in Figure 2-11), the period of
the slow EMA is given as the second parameter (26 in Figure 2-11).
The signal line is the moving average of the base line. The period of this moving
average is given as the third parameter (9 in Figure 2-11).
The histogram is the difference between the base line and the signal line.
In my system we will be using a MACD(12,26,9) within a 5 minute chart. That is a 12period fast EMA and a 26-period slow EMA for the calculation of the base line. And a 9
period MA for the calculation of the signal line. For generating signals we will only be
looking at the base line and at the signal line and not at the histogram. That is the reason
why I recommend hiding the histogram if possible. In the picture below I show how to set
the settings within eSignal for adding a MACD(12,26,9) to a 5 minute chart.
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Figure 2-12
Figure 2-13
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In my system I use a 14 period RSI from a 5 minute chart together with an upper band at
60 and a lower band at 40 for determining the Signal Strength.
RSI is a tool available in almost all charting packages. So actually you do not really need
to understand how RSI is calculated. You only need to know how to add it to your
charts within your charting software. In the picture below I show how to set the settings
within eSignal for adding a 14 period RSI to a 5 minute chart. Additionally we define an
upper band at 60 and a lower band at 40.
Figure 2-14
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Figure 2-15
Figure 2-15 is a hourly candlestick chart for EUR/USD. As we can observe from the chart
resistance was established around 1.5820. For several days in the row Euro was unable to
break through resistance level. When a price is unable to move through key resistance
level for several times, it is considered a bearish signal and if it moves through key
resistance level, coupled with other TA indicators it is considered a strong buy signal.
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Figure 2-16
Figure 2-16 is a daily candlestick chart for EUR/USD. As we can observe from the chart
support was established around 1.4350. For several months in a row Euro was unable to
break through support level, and on the final bounce off the support line it picked up
momentum and started a multi month rally.
Support and resistance should not be used alone when looking for potential entry signals
but rather in the combination with other signals. When the price reaches resistance level
and starts reversing it is usually an entry opportunity on the short side. When the price
reaches support level and starts reversing it is usually an entry opportunity on the long
side. Such trading approach, when a trader anticipates the price to bounce off
support/resistance level is also called swing trading.
On the other hand traders who anticipate continuation of the current price trend after the
price crosses support/resistance level are said to be using breakout trading approach.
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Once you have done paper trading and become confident, you are ready to trade
for real. Be careful, watch your finances wisely, and dont hesitate to pull out of a
trade if it is not going in your direction. Trading shouldnt be a gamble. With the
right tools, ammunition and experience you will be able to make your trading
endeavor a success.
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Chapter 3
Intraday
Trading System
For the purpose of explaining my trading system I will be using eSignal charting
software. Which software and which trading platform you will be using is entirely up to
you, however my setup will give you general ideas of what capabilities should your
software have. Principles and rules that are explained in this system can be used to trade
any currency pair.
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
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Figure 3-2
If the long-term trend is recognized as bullish, we will look ONLY for bullish entry
signals and if the market is bearish we will look ONLY for bearish entry signals.
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Figure 3-3
We get a bullish trigger signal if the base line crosses the signal line from below to
above and the base line gets outside the +3/-3 pips range.
We get a bearish trigger signal if the base line crosses the signal line from above to
below and the base line gets outside the +3/-3 pips range.
In the example below around 05:30AM we get a bearish signal as the base line crosses the
signal line from above to below and the base line is outside the +3/-3 pips range.
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Figure 3-7
Although forex market is in essence a 24-hour market, for the purpose of my strategy we
need to define when does the trading day start and when does it end. Lets have a look at
figure below:
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Figure 3-8
The figure above shows 15-min candlestick charts for USD/JPY and EUR/USD
respectively. What do they all have in common? We can observe that the time of the
lowest trading volume for all of them is at approximately 5pm EST or 10pm GMT. That
is the time when almost all of the Forex Trading Centers around the world are closed.
Therefore we will use 10pm GMT as the time when previous trading day ends and the
new trading day begins. Here is an example: You live in Europe. It is Thursday morning
9amGMT. Previous trading day has started on Tuesday 10pmGMT and it has ended
Wednesday 10pmGMT. Another example: You live in North America. It is Thursday
morning 9amEST. Previous trading day has started on Tuesday 5pm EST and it has ended
Wednesday 5pm EST. For those who dont know: Eastern Standard Time (EST) =
Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) 5 Why is it important to determine when does the
trading day start and when does it end? It is important because we will need values such
as Previous Day High, Previous Day Low and Previous Day Close later on for
determining the support and resistance levels.
Step 2:
Determining Previous Day High, Previous Day Low and Previous Day Close
Once we know that previous trading day ended at 05:00 PM of previous day, we need
to determine Previous Day High, Previous Day Low and Previous Day Close:
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Figure 3-9
The figure above is a 15 min candlestick chart for EUR/USD. From the chart above we
can determine that:
Step 3:
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Step 4:
The S1, S2, R1, R2 Support and Resistance Levels are calculated using the following
formulas:
R1 = (PP x 2) PDLow
R2 = PP + (PDHigh - PDLow)
S1 = (PP x 2) PDHigh
S2 = PP - (PDHigh - PDLow)
For the example above the S/R levels for the next trading day are:
Figure 3-10
Although it may look a little difficult at the beginning, you will get comfortable with the
calculations after some practice. And these calculations need to be done only once before
the start of your trading day!
How to get signals based on the support/resistance levels?
A bullish Support/Resistance signal is got, when:
the price crosses from below to above a S/R level (bullish breakthrough)
the price crosses from above to below a S/R level (bearish breakthrough)
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In the example below we read a bearish signal as the RSI is less than 40.
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Figure 3-13
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Signal Strength
12-18 pts
20 pts
26 pts
I have answered this question by using a proprietary Recursive Trailing Stop Formula
for recalculating the stop order every time the market moves in our direction. This method
behaves in a way that the more the market moves in the direction the more space we want
to allow our trade.
Every time the price moves 30 pips in our direction we readjust the stop order by using
the following Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
Current stop order = Old stop order + Previous Stop Loss x 0.85
Equation 1
Here is an example for the usage of the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
Figure 3-14
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If the price moves 30 pips in our direction, here it means that the price reaches 1.3480,
then the stop order is readjusted to:
New Stop Order = 1.3420 + 0.0030 x 0.85 = 1.3420 + 0.0025 = 1.3445
If the price moves again 30 pips in our direction, here it means that the price reaches
1.3510, then the stop order is readjusted to:
New stop order = 1.3445+ 0.0025 x 0.85 = 1.3445 + 0.0021 = 1.3466
And so forth
3.2.4. Action 4 Take Your Profit when Your Trade Runs out of Steam:
We close the position in case the market gets sideways and our actual balance is
positive. In this case Sideways market is recognized, when within the last 4 hours the
highest price differs from the lowest price by less than 30 pips.
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Chapter 4
Intraday USD/CAD
Trading Example
In this example we are going to trade the currency pair USD/CAD.
Ok, today it is February 26. 07:00 AM. Before we start trading we have to do the
following preparations:
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Figure 4-1
From the chart above we can determine that:
= 1.0129
= 0.9946
= 0.9959
Pivot Point PP
= 1.0011
The S1, S2, R1, R2 Support and Resistance Levels are calculated to:
R1 = (PP x 2) PDLow
= (1.0011x 2) - 0.9946
= 1.0194
S1 = (PP x 2) PDHigh
= (1.0011 x 2) - 1.0129
= 0.9894
S2 = PP - (PDHigh - PDLow)
= 0.9828
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= 1.0077
Figure 4-2
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Figure 4-3
Step 2: Identify the long-term trend. For that purpose we add EMA(150) to a 5 minute
chart and check if the EMA is rising or falling. As EMA is falling the long-term trend is
recognized as bearish. So we will look only for bearish entry signals.
Figure 4-4
Step 3: Getting an entry signal. At 07:10 we get a bearish trigger signal, as the base line
(blue line) crosses from above to below the signal line (red line) and the base line is
outside the 3pips range.
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Figure 4-5
Step 4: Confirm with the Signal Strength. The Signal Strength is calculated by adding the
points assigned to the Zigzag, Support/Resistance and RSI signal.
As we can see from the figure below:
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Figure 4-6
As the Signal Strength is 14 points we place an order for entering the market. In this
example we sell 5 lots of the currency pair USDCAD at the price of 0.9914.
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Figure 4-7
We will also determine the target level. The Signal Strength was determined to be 14
points and based on Table 3-1 at page 63 we get a target level 30 pips below the entry
price at 0.9884
Figure 4-8
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At 08:05 the target level is reached so we close half of our position (2.5 lots) at the price
of 0.9884 making a profit of 759$.
Figure 4-9
As the price has moved 30 pips in our direction (from 0.9914 to below 0.9884) we also
readjust the stop order to 0.9919 using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
New stop order
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Figure 4-10
At 11:30 the price has moved again another 30 pips in our direction (from 0.9884 to
below 0.9854). So we readjust the stop order to 0.9898:
New stop order
Figure 4-11
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At 12:35 the price has moved again another 30 pips in our direction (from 0.9854 to
below 0.9824), so we readjust the stop order to0.9880:
New stop order
Figure 4-12
At 14:45 the price has moved again another 30 pips in our direction (from 0.9824 to
below 0.9794), so we readjust the stop order to 0.9865:
New stop order
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Figure 4-13
Around 20:25 we recognize that our trade has run out of steam: the market is sideways as
within the last four hours the highest price (0.9824) differs from the lowest price (0.9800)
by less than 30 pips. Due to this we exit our trade closing our position (remaining 2.5 lots)
at the price of 0.9809 making a profit of 2,702$.
Figure 4-14
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At the end using the intraday Street Smart ForexTM trading system a profit of
759 USD + 2,702 USD = 3,461 USD is achieved (see Figure 4.17).
A profit of 3,461 USD for one trading day.
Figure 4-15
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Chapter 5
Intraday EUR/USD
Trading Example
In this example we are going to trade the currency pair EUR/USD.
Before we start trading we have to do the following preparation:
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Figure 5-1
From the chart above we can determine that:
= 1.4683
= 1.4510
= 1.4628
Pivot Point PP
= 1.4607
The S1, S2, R1, R2 Support and Resistance Levels are calculated to:
R1 = (PP x 2) PDLow
= (1.4607 x 2) - 1.4510
= 1.4780
S1 = (PP x 2) PDHigh
= 1.4531
= (1.4607 x 2) - 1.4683
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= 1.4704
S2 = PP - (PDHigh - PDLow)
= 1.4434
Figure 5-2
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Figure 5-3
Step 2: Identify the long-term trend. For that purpose we add EMA(150) to a 5 minute
chart and check if the EMA is rising or falling. As EMA is rising the long-term trend is
recognized as bullish. So we will look ONLY for bullish entry signals.
Figure 5-4
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Step 3: Getting an entry signal. At 08:50 we get a bullish trigger signal since the base line
(blue line) crosses signal line (red line) from below to above the and base line gets outside
the 3pips range.
Figure 5-5
Step 4: Confirm with the Signal Strength. The Signal Strength is calculated by adding the
points assigned to the Zigzag, Support/Resistance and RSI signal.
As we can see from the figure below:
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Figure 5-6
As the Signal Strength is 26 points we place an entry order. In this example we buy 5 lots
of the currency pair EURUSD at the price of 1.4677.
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Figure 5-7
We will determine the target level. The Signal Strength was determined to be 26 points so
we get a target level 50 pips above the entry price at 1.4727 (Table 3-1 at page 63).
Figure 5-8
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At 09:10 the price has moved 30 pips in our direction (from 1.4677.to above 1.4707). So
we readjust the stop order to 1.4672 using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
New stop order
Figure 5-9
At 10:05 the target level is reached so we close half of our position (2.5 lots) at the price
of 1.4727 making a profit of 1250$.
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Figure 5-10
At 11:30 the price has moved again 30 pips in our direction (from 1.4707.to above
1.4737), so we readjust the stop order to 1.4693:
New stop order
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Figure 5-11
At 13:50 the price has moved again 30 pips in our direction (from 1.4737.to above
1.4767), so we readjust the stop order to 1.4711:
New stop order
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Figure 5-12
Around 20:00 we recognize that market is sideways as within the last four hours the
highest price (1.4777) differs from the lowest price (1.4748) by less than 30 pips. Due to
this we exit our trade closing our position (remaining 2.5 lots) at the price of 1.4763
making a profit of 2,150$.
Figure 5-13
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At the end using the intraday Street Smart ForexTM trading system a profit of
1,250 USD + 2,150 USD = 3,400 USD is achieved (see Figure 5.14).
A profit of 3,400 USD for one trading day.
Figure 5-14
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Chapter 6
Long-Term
Trading System
The Long-Term Street Smart ForexTM trading system, another viable trading approach,
is suitable for those of you who have day jobs that prevent you from closely monitoring
your positions during Market hours. This trading approach is called Long-Term Trading
or Swing trading. This is a way of trading in which a trader is holding his/her positions for
a few days/weeks. Long-Term trader is trying to capitalize on larger swings in the forex
price. Sometimes Long-Term traders time frame is one day, sometimes it is a few days
and in the exceptional situations even a few weeks.
Both approaches, Long-Term and Intraday Street Smart ForexTM trading system, are
very similar, as only the values of some parameters are changed. Because of that fact I
will not repeat all the explanations as done before for the Intraday Street Smart ForexTM
trading system. Basically, I am only going to repeat the basics of the system pointing out
the main differences between the Long-Term and the Intraday approach. So even you
may already know that long-term trading is the kind of approach you are searching for, I
highly recommend that you also read the chapter 3 that deals with the Intraday system as
you will find some useful information there.
Step 2
Step 3
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Step 4
One important remark before we start in detail. In the long-term trend approach I will
very often make use of 4 hour charts. But this does not mean that one needs to follow the
market every four hours, as this system is intended to be used in the way that we check
the charts only once per day. We do so in order to decrease the time frame we keep a
position to acceptable value of few days and in the exceptional situations even a few
weeks.
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It is as simple as following:
Figure 6-2
If the long-term trend is recognized as bullish, we will look only for bullish entry signals
and if the market is bearish we will look only for bearish entry signals.
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Figure 6-3
We get a bullish trigger signal if the base line crosses the signal line from below to
above and the base line gets outside the +20/-20 pips range.
We get a bearish trigger signal if the base line crosses the signal line from above to
below and the base line gets outside the +20/-20 pips range.
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Figure 6-4
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Figure 6-7
The figure above is a one day candlestick chart for EUR/USD. From the chart above we
can determine that:
Step 2:
Step 3:
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The S1, S2, R1, R2 Support and Resistance Levels are calculated using the following
formulas:
R1 = (PP x 2) P2WLow
R2 = PP + (P2WHigh P2WLow)
S1 = (PP x 2) P2WHigh
S2 = PP - (P2WHigh P2WLow)
For the example above the S/R levels for the next trading day are:
Figure 6-8
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Although it may look a little difficult at the beginning, you will get comfortable with the
calculations after some practice. And these calculations need to be done only once before
starting your trading!
How to get signals based on the support/resistance levels?
A bullish Support/Resistance signal is got, when:
the price crosses from below to above a S/R level (bullish breakthrough)
the price crosses from above to below a S/R level (bearish breakthrough)
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In the example below we read for the RSI a bullish signal as the RSI is higher than 60.
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Figure 6-11
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Signal Strength
12 pts
14 pts
18 pts
20 pts
26 pts
40 pips
50 pips
60 pips
80 pips
100 pips
Table 6-1 Target Level
In case the price reaches the target level we close only half of the position as the other half
should "let the profits run..."
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so called recursive formula. This method behaves in the way that the more the market
moves in our directio the more space we want to allow to our trade.
Every time the price moves 100 pips in our direction we readjust the stop order by using
the following Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
New stop order = Old stop order + Previous Stop Loss Distance x 0.85
Start Value for Stop Loss Distance is 100 pips
6.2.4. Action 4 Take Your Profit when Your Trade Runs out of Steam:
We close the position in case the market becomes sideways market and our actual
balance is positive. Sideways market is recognized, when within the last 4 days the
highest price differs from the lowest price by less than 150 pips
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Chapter 7
Long-Term EUR/USD
Trading Example
In this example we are going to trade long-term the currency pair EUR/USD and we will
check the charts once per day at 20:00 in the evening.
Ok, today it is Wednesday, February 20. Before we start trading we have to do the
following preparation:
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Figure 7-1
From the chart above we can determine that:
= 1.4440
Pivot Point PP
= 1.4636
The S1, S2, R1, R2 Support and Resistance Levels are calculated to:
R1 = (PP x 2) P2WLow
= (1.4636 x 2) 1.4440
= 1.4953
S1 = (PP x 2) P2WHigh
= 1.4515
= (1.4636 x 2) - 1.4757
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= 1.4832
S2 = PP - (P2WHigh P2WLow)
= 1.4636 - (1.4757-1.4440)
= 1.4319
Figure 7-2
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Figure 7-3
Step 2: Identify the long-term trend. For that purpose we add EMA(125) to a 4 hour chart
and check if the EMA is rising or falling. As EMA is rising the long-term trend is
recognized as bullish. So we will look only for bullish entry signals.
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Figure 7-4
Step 3: Getting an entry signal. On Thursday, December 21 we get a bullish trigger
signal, as the base line (blue line) crosses from below to above the signal line (red line)
and base line is outside the 20 pips range.
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Figure 7-5
Step 4: Confirm with the Signal Strength. The Signal Strength is calculated by adding the
points assigned to the Zigzag, Support/Resistance and RSI signal.
As we can see from the figure below:
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Figure 7-6
As the Signal Strength is18 points we place an order for entering the market. In this
example we buy 2 lots of the currency pair EURUSD at the price of 1.4803.
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Figure 7-7
We will also determine the target level. The Signal Strength is determined to be 18 points
and based on Table 6-1 Target Level at page 103 we get a target level 60 pips above the
entry price at 1.4863
Figure 7-8
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On Tuesday, February 26, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that the target
level has been reached. So we close half of our position (1 lot) at the price of 1.4994
making a profit of 1,910$.
Figure 7-9
At the same time we also recognize that the price has moved two times 100 pips in our
direction (from 1.4803 to above 1.4903 and from 1.4903 to above 1.5103). So we readjust
the stop order using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula two times:
For the first 100 pips move:
New stop order
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Figure 7-10
On Wednesday, February 27, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that the
price has moved again 100 pips in our direction (from 1.5103 to above 1.5203). So we
readjust the stop order using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
New stop order
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Figure 7-11
On Thursday, February 28, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that the price
has moved again 100 pips in our direction (from 1.5203 to above 1.5303). So we readjust
the stop order using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
New stop order
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Figure 7-12
On Tuesday, March 04, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that our trade
has run out of steam: the market is sideways as within the last four trading days (02/29,
03/02, 03/03 and 03/04) the highest price (1.5275) differs from the lowest price (1.5142)
by less than 150 pips. Due to this we exit our trade closing our position (remaining 1 lot)
at the price of 1.5194 making a profit of 3,910 $.
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Figure 7-13
At the end by using the long-term Street Smart ForexTM trading system a profit
of 1,910 USD + 3,910 USD = 5,820 USD is achieved (see Figure 7.14).
A profit of 5,820 USD in only two trading weeks.
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Figure 7-14
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Chapter 8
Long-Term GBP/USD
Trading Example
In this example we are going to trade long-term the currency pair GBP/USD and we will
check the charts once per day at 20:00 in the evening.
Ok, today it is Thursday, December 13. Before we start trading we have to do the
following preparation:
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Figure 8-1
From the chart above we can determine that:
2.0825
2.0181
2.0407
Pivot Point PP
= 2.0471
The S1, S2, R1, R2 Support and Resistance Levels are calculated to:
R1 = (PP x 2) P2WDLow
= (2.0471 x 2) 2.0181
R2 = PP + (P2WHigh P2WLow)
S1 = (PP x 2) P2WHigh
= (2.0471 x 2) - 2.0825
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= 2.0761
= 2.0117
S2 = PP - (P2WHigh P2WLow)
Figure 8-2
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Figure 8-3
Step 2: Identify the long-term trend. For that purpose we add EMA(125) to a 4 hour chart
and check if the EMA is rising or falling. As EMA is falling the long-term trend is
recognized as bearish. So we will look only for bearish entry signals.
Figure 8-4
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Step 3: Getting an entry signal. On Friday, December 14 we get a bearish trigger signal,
as the base line (blue line) crosses from above to below the signal line (red line) and base
line is outside the 20 pips range. Even though we check the charts at 20:00 in the evening,
the last bar we see is the 16:00-hour bar, as on Friday the market closes at
approximately 16:00 (EST).
Figure 8-5
Step 4: Confirm with the Signal Strength. The Signal Strength is calculated by adding the
points assigned to the Zigzag, Support/Resistance and RSI signal.
As we can see from the figure below:
Figure 8-6
As the Signal Strength is 26 points, we place an order for entering the market. In this
example we sell 2 lots of the currency pair GBPUSD for the price of 2.0176.
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Figure 8-7
We will also determine the target level. The Signal Strength was determined to be 26
points and based on Table 6-1 Target Level at page 103 we get a target level 100 pips
below the entry price at 2.0076
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Figure 8-8
On Wednesday, December 19, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that the
target level has been reached. So we close half of our position (1 lot) at the price of
1.9976 making a profit of 2,000$.
Figure 8-9
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At the same time we also recognize that the price has moved two times 100 pips in our
direction (from 2.0176 to below 2.0078 and from 2.0078 to below 1.9978). So we readjust
the stop order using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula two times:
For the first 100 pips move:
New stop order
Figure 8-10
On Thursday, December 20, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that the
price has moved again 100 pips in our direction (from 1.9976 to below1.9876). So we
readjust the stop order using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
New stop order
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Figure 8-11
On Monday, December 24, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that the
price has moved again 100 pips in our direction (from 1.9876 to below 1.9776). So we
readjust the stop order using the Recursive Trailing Stop Formula:
New stop order
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Figure 8-12
On Wednesday, December 26, when we check the charts at 20:00, we recognize that our
trade has run out of steam: the market is sideways as within the last four trading days (26,
25, 24 and 23) the highest price (1.9872) differs from the lowest price (1.9732) by less
than 150 pips. Due to this we exit our trade closing our position (remaining 1 lot) at the
price of 1.9872 making a profit of 3,040$.
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Figure 8-13
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At the end using the long-term Street Smart ForexTM trading system a profit of
2,000 USD + 3,040 USD = 5,040 USD is achieved (see Figure 8.14 ).
A profit of 5,040 USD in only two trading weeks.
Figure 8-14
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