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ENVIRONMENT

ClimateEffortsFallingShort,U.N.Panel
Says
ByJUSTINGILLIS

APRIL13,2014

BERLINDeliveringthelateststarknewsaboutclimatechangeonSunday,a
UnitedNationspanelwarnedthatgovernmentsarenotdoingenoughtoavert
profoundrisksincomingdecades.Buttheexpertsfoundasilverlining:Not
onlyistherestilltimetoheadofftheworst,butthepoliticalwilltodoso
seemstoberisingaroundtheworld.
Inareportunveiledhere,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimate
Changefoundthatdecadesoffootdraggingbypoliticalleadershadpropelled
humanityintoacriticalsituation,withgreenhouseemissionsrisingfasterthan
ever.Thoughitremainstechnicallypossibletokeepplanetarywarmingtoa
tolerablelevel,onlyanintensivepushoverthenext15yearstobringthose
emissionsundercontrolcanachievethegoal,thecommitteefound.
Wecannotaffordtoloseanotherdecade,saidOttmarEdenhofer,a
Germaneconomistandcochairmanofthecommitteethatwrotethereport.
Ifweloseanotherdecade,itbecomesextremelycostlytoachieveclimate
stabilization.
Thegoodnewsisthatambitiousactionisbecomingmoreaffordable,the
committeefound.Itisincreasinglyclearthatmeasuresliketougherbuilding
codesandefficiencystandardsforcarsandtruckscansaveenergyandreduce

emissionswithoutharmingpeoplesqualityoflife,thepanelfound.Andthe
costsofrenewableenergylikewindandsolarpowerarefallingsofastthatits
deploymentonalargescaleisbecomingpractical,thereportsaid.
Moreover,sincetheintergovernmentalpanelissueditslastmajorreport
in2007,farmorecountries,statesandcitieshaveadoptedclimateplans,a
measureofthegrowingpoliticalinterestintacklingtheproblem.Theyinclude
ChinaandtheUnitedStates,whicharedoingmoredomesticallythanthey
havebeenwillingtocommittoininternationaltreatynegotiations.
Yetthereportfoundthattheemissionsproblemisstilloutrunningthe
determinationtotackleit,withatmosphericcarbondioxidelevelsrising
almosttwiceasfastinthefirstdecadeofthiscenturyastheydidinthelast
decadesofthe20thcentury.Thatreflectsahugerushtousecoalfiredpower
plantsindevelopingcountriesthatareclimbinguptheincomescale,
especiallyChina,whilerichcountriesaremakingonlyslowprogressincutting
theirhighemissions,thereportsaid.
Thereportislikelytoincreasethepressuretosecureanambitiousnew
globalclimatetreatythatissupposedtobecompletedinlate2015andtake
effectin2020.Butthedivisionsbetweenwealthycountriesandpoorer
countriesthathavelongbedeviledinternationalclimatetalkswereondisplay
yetagaininBerlin.
Somedevelopingcountriesinsistedonstrippingchartsfromthereports
executivesummarythatcouldhavebeenreadasrequiringgreatereffortfrom
them,whilerichcountriesincludingtheUnitedStatesstruckout
languagethatmighthavebeenseenasimplyingthattheyneededtowritebig
checkstothedevelopingcountries.Bothpointssurvivedinthefullversionof
thereport,butweredeletedfromasynopsismeanttoinformtheworldstop
politicalleaders.
Thenewreportdoesnotprescribetheactionsthatgovernmentsneedto
take.Butitdoesmakeclearthatputtingapriceonemissionsofcarbondioxide

andothergreenhousegases,eitherthroughtaxesorthesaleofemission
permits,isafundamentalapproachthatcouldhelpredirectinvestmenttoward
climatefriendlytechnologies.
Ifclimatetargetsaretobemet,thereportsaid,annualinvestmentin
electricalpowerplantsthatusefossilfuelswillneedtodeclinebyabout20
percentinthecomingtwodecades,whileinvestmentinlowcarbonenergywill
needtodoublefromcurrentlevels.
Thereportwarnsthatifgreatereffortstocutemissionsarenot
implementedsoon,futuregenerationsseekingtolimitorreverseclimate
damagewillhavetodependontechnologiesthatpermanentlyremove
greenhousegasesfromtheairineffect,theywillbetryingtoundothedamage
causedbythepeopleoftoday.
Butthesetechnologiesdonotexistonanyappreciablescale,thereport
said,andthereisnoguaranteethattheywillbeavailableinthefuture,much
lessthattheywillbeaffordable.
Theintergovernmentalpanelwarnedthatthelongercountriesdelayed
aggressiveaction,themoredifficultitwouldbetolimitglobalwarmingtothe
levelthattheinternationalcommunityhasagreedto,namelyariseinthe
globalaveragetemperatureofnomorethan3.6degreesFahrenheit(2degrees
Celsius)abovethepreindustriallevel.
Scientistsfearthatexceedingthatlevelcouldproducedrasticeffects,such
asthecollapseoficesheets,arapidriseinsealevels,difficultygrowingenough
food,hugedieoffsofforests,andmassextinctionsofplantandanimal
species.
TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeisaUnitedNationsbody
thatincludeshundredsofscientists,economistsandotherexperts.Thegroup
periodicallyreviewsthescienceandeconomicsofclimatechangeandissues
majorreportseveryfiveorsixyears.AlongwithAlGore,itwasawardedthe

NobelPeacePrizein2007forcallingattentiontotheclimateproblem.
Thenewreport,dealingwithwaystolimitthegrowthoftheemissions
thatarecausingclimatechange,isthethirdinrecentmonths.Areport
releasedinStockholminSeptemberfoundacertaintyof95percentorgreater
thathumanswerethemaincauseofglobalwarming,andareportreleasedin
Yokohama,Japan,twoweeksagosaidprofoundeffectswerealreadybeingfelt
aroundtheworld,andwerelikelytogetmuchworse.
Thelatestreportfoundthatifcountrieskeepstallingontougherclimate
rules,trillionsofdollarswillbeinvestedincomingyearsinpowerplants,cars
andbuildingsthatusetoomuchenergyfromfossilfuels.Theresult,thereport
said,wouldbeanemissionspaththatwouldbealmostimpossibletoalterin
timetogettotheverylowcarbonpollutionlevelsthatscientiststhinkare
necessaryby2050.
Theauthorsfoundthattacklingtheprobleminaseriouswaywouldcarry
largecosts,shavingafewhundredthsofapercentagepointoffglobal
economicgrowtheachyear.Bytheendofthecentury,societieswouldmost
likelybefarricherthantoday,butalmost5percentpoorerthantheywould
havebeenhadtheynotspentthemoneytoprotecttheclimate,accordingto
thestudy.
Climatepolicyisnotafreelunch,Dr.Edenhofersaidatanews
conferenceSundayinBerlin.
Againstthosecosts,theeconomicbenefitsofactingareessentially
impossibletocalculate,thereportfound.Thebiggestreasonisthatscientists
donotknowhowlikelyitisthatuncheckedglobalwarmingcouldcausesome
sortofwildlyexpensivecalamity,suchasarapidmeltingoficesheetsthat
woulddrowntheworldsmajorcoastalcities.Thisandotherdisastersare
distinctlypossible,theauthorsfound.
Inessence,thecommitteedescribedmoneyspentfightingclimatechange

asaformofinsuranceagainstthemostseverepotentialconsequences.Itis
uptothepublicanduptodecisionmakerstodecideifitisaffordableornot,
Dr.Edenhofersaid.
ThereportwasquicklywelcomedinWashington,wherePresidentObama
istryingtoadoptaggressiveclimatepoliciesdespitecongressionalopposition.
Hisscienceadviser,JohnP.Holdren,saidthereportshowedthatthelonger
societywaitstoimplementstrongmeasurestocutgreenhousegasemissions,
themorecostlyanddifficultitwillbecometolimitclimatechangetolessthan
catastrophiclevels.
CoralDavenportcontributedreportingfromWashington.
AversionofthisarticleappearsinprintonApril14,2014,onpageA1oftheNewYorkeditionwith
theheadline:ClimateEffortsFallingShort,U.N.PanelSays.

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