Memo

5 November 2015

To:

Auckland Council, the 013 Expert Group, and the 051/54 Expert Group

Cc:

David Hill

From:

Phill Reid, Hearing Panel Planning Manager

Subject: Panel Further Request for Demand and Supply Estimates

The Panel appreciates the work undertaken thus far by the Auckland Council and the 013
and 051/54 Expert Groups1 to provide relevant estimates of the demand for and supply of
capacity in the Auckland region for residential, commercial and industrial uses. This memo
draws together the Panels request for further work on these estimates (noting that
components of this request have been raised in a number of hearings) and takes account of
the points raised in the Council memo on this topic of 3 November 2015. The Panel is
conscious that time is tight to undertake this further work and therefore wishes to be clear as
to its scope and the desired outputs.
Residential capacity
The method for estimating demand for additional residential capacity (i.e. dwellings) appears
to be relatively settled in the report of the 013 Expert Group of July 2015.
The method for estimating supply has undergone further development since that report in
order to accommodate changes to density rules as proposed by the Council. Some aspects
of the revised method have yet to be completed (e.g. the setting and application of price
ceilings) and the Expert Group has not had an opportunity to properly review the revised
method.
The Panel requests the 013 Expert Group reconvenes to develop and agree a revised
method to estimate supply that is capable of accommodating the changes to density rules as
proposed by the Council and its forthcoming proposed changes to the spatial application of
residential zones. Due to the sensitive nature of the revised zoning information the Panel
accepts that the Expert Group review of the application of the method to this revised zoning
may need to be undertaken by way of pilot studies.
The Panel also requests that, if possible in the time allowed, the estimates of supply be
compiled as forecasts, in order for the Panel to be in position to compare supply forecasts
with the demand forecasts.
To date the Expert Group has provided estimates of demand and supply for the period to
2026, with indicative estimates for the period to 2041. The Panel is happy with these
periods. The Panel is happy for demand and supply estimates to be presented as a range.

The 013 Expert Group comprises those who participated in preparing the July report of that Group.
The 051/54 Expert Group comprises Council staff and advisers that are preparing a response to
commercial capacity supply issues raised in Topics 051/54.

The estimates of supply are to be based on the Councils proposed zone rules as presented
to the Panel in Topic 059/60/62/63 and as modified in its closing comments on those Topics,
and using the spatial application of those zones that are proposed by Council for the 081
Topic.
The Panel requests that the output from this work include:
- An estimate of demand for residential capacity (expressed as dwelling numbers)
throughout the Auckland region, for the period to 2026 and to 2041.
- An estimate of overall supply of residential capacity (in tabular form along the lines
provided by Dr Fairgray on 28 October) and a breakdown of that supply in terms of
each type of zone (e.g. Centres, THAB, MHU, Mixed Use, etc.).
- An estimate of the years of supply that would be enabled and available if the Plan is
made operative in 2016, and at 2026, and the trend in that metric in the intervening
years.
- Presentation of supply in the form of heat maps or similar (e.g. as at 2026 and
2041) to enable easy visualisation of the spatial spread of supply.
- A supporting document that sets out the method used to estimate demand and
supply, with any significant diverging views and their implications for the estimates
recorded in an appendix (along the lines of the approach used in the July report)
The Panel intends to use the outputs from this work to assess the extent to which the
proposed Plan would be adequate to meet forecast demand for residential capacity for the
period to 2026, and to 2041.
The Panel requests the above outputs be provided to the Panel by 26 January 2016 (which
is when the Council evidence on Topic 081 is due).
The Panel appoints Mr David Hill to facilitate the 013 Expert Group.
Commercial and industrial capacity
At the conclusion of the Topic 051/54 hearing the Panel requested the Council and its
advisers to examine what appeared to be a mismatch between some of the areas zoned
Light Industrial and their current use, and the adequacy of the supply of future capacity for
commercial uses that are not covered in the Light Industrial zone. The Council responded
with a draft outline for this work (dated 5 October and filed in the evidence of Topic 051/54).
The Panel has discussed this draft with its authors and is confident this work should address
its queries.
The Panel requests this work on the demand for, and supply of, commercial capacity be
expanded to all forms of commercial and industrial uses across the Auckland region.
The Panel also requests that, if possible in the time allowed, the estimates of supply be
compiled as forecasts, in order for the Panel to be in position to compare supply forecasts
with the demand forecasts.
To date the 013 Expert Group has provided estimates of demand and supply for the period
to 2026, with indicative estimates for the period to 2041. The Panel requests this Expert
Group uses the same periods. The Panel is happy for demand and supply estimates to be
presented as a range.
The estimates of supply are to be based on the Councils proposed zone rules as presented
to the Panel in Topic 051/54 and as modified in its closing comments on those Topics, and
using the spatial application of those zones that are proposed by Council for the 081 Topic.
The Panel requests that the output from this work include:
- An assessment of the extent of mismatch (and their locations) between some of the
areas zoned Light Industrial and their current use, and the adequacy of the supply
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of future capacity for commercial uses that are not covered in the Light Industrial
zone.
An estimate of demand for commercial and industrial capacity throughout the
Auckland region, for the period to 2026 and to 2041.
An estimate of overall supply of commercial and industrial capacity (in tabular form
along the lines provided by Dr Fairgray on 28 October for residential) and a
breakdown of that supply in terms of each type of zone (e.g. Centres, General
Business, Light Industrial, etc.).
An estimate of the years of supply that would be enabled and available if the Plan is
made operative in 2016, and at 2026, and the trend in that metric in the intervening
years.
If appropriate metrics can be developed, presentation of supply in the form of heat
maps or similar (e.g. as at 2026 and 2041) to enable easy visualisation of the spatial
spread of supply.
A supporting document that sets out the method used to estimate demand and
supply, with any significant diverging views and their implications for the estimates
recorded in an appendix (along the lines of the approach used in the July report of
the 013 Expert Group).

The Panel intends to use the outputs from this work to assess the extent to which the
proposed Plan would be adequate to meet forecast demand for commercial and industrial
capacity for the period to 2026, and to 2041.
The Panel requests the above outputs be provided to the Panel by 26 January 2016 (which
is when the Council evidence on Topic 081 is due).
Overall consistency of assumptions
As capacity for residential use is in part substitutable for commercial use and vice versa, it is
important that the above outputs are prepared on consistent assumptions such that there is
no double counting of capacity. To that end the Panel requests that Mr Balderston, as the
Council analyst in charge of capacity modelling, provides assurance to the Panel when
submitting the above outputs that there has been a consistent set of assumptions used
across the above work streams.

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