The Post-Earthquake Challenges

By Fateh M. Chaudhri
THE devastating earthquake of October 8 was sudden and colossal. Several thousand
homes were flattened and a generation of school children was instantly buried under the
debris of schools. Almost all government buildings, hospitals, colleges, universities,
telecommunication network, power lines, and water pipes were razed within a span of a
few minutes across Azad Kashmir and parts of the NWFP.
More importantly, the earthquake blocked rescuers from reaching the affected zone.
The rescue and relief activity in the beginning was haphazard. In Islamabad, at the site of
the Margalla Towers, the initially deployed teams were ill-prepared to organize rescue
action. The process was slow, confusing and inadequate, reflecting on the absence of an
emergency management plan or strategy.
If such a disaster were to strike urban centres such as Karachi, Quetta and Lahore, the
nation would be totally paralysed. The quake has abundantly exposed the lack of
preparedness at the national level to promptly respond to any natural or manmade crisis.
This makes it necessary for us to undertake zero-based budgeting. Each and every item of
expenditure, including defence, must be analysed and justified in the wake of the October
8 catastrophe that has created new needs related to the rescue, relief, reconstruction and
rehabilitation of millions of people.
At the same time, the gradually eroding tax/GDP ratio should be rectified and tax evasion
must be stopped. A group of financial and economic experts from the public and private
sectors should be assembled to identify new sources of revenues that are likely to put
least pressure on the already stressed economic base of the country. In spite of a sizable
aid pledge at the recent donor conference in Islamabad, the road ahead is steep and
slippery.
The first and foremost challenge is to provide shelter and heating to everybody before the
Himalayan winter sets in. The UN emergency relief coordinator, John Egeland, has been
frank in his warning against the looming winter onslaught. Secretary-General Kofi Annan
has urged the world to launch extraordinary efforts to cope with the catastrophe in South
Asia. Even if sufficient numbers of tents of the right quality are acquired, inadequate
heating could still lead to a health crisis, especially in view of the poor sanitation
facilities in the quake-hit areas.
Escaping the killer mountains has to be the highest priority. Even though flying a
helicopter costs $11,000 per hour, evacuating people from high mountains to the warmer
plains is absolutely crucial. As observed by the UN coordinator, It is now or never, we
will not have a second chance.
With helicopters from the US, Nato and the Red Cross, reaching inaccessible places is
still feasible and must be done on a war footing. Let us not forget that six out of the nine
districts affected by the earthquake are in the most food insecure parts of Pakistan.
People in these areas were poor to begin with and the earthquake has made them poorer
and more vulnerable. The use of the Pakistani army in emergency operations was
necessary and, on balance, they have performed well. However, for future rehabilitation

and reconstruction, most tasks should be undertaken by the civil administration.

What is needed today is zero tolerance for corruption. The accountant-general of Pakistan
should promptly formulate and put in place a speedy financial strategy to manage the
quick transfer of foreign donations, the prompt release of financial resources and
computer-based uses of funds with clear monitoring and evaluation processes. He should
immediately be given resources to establish a directorate for earthquake-related accounts
with sufficient, qualified staff and a computer system to perform the required functions
efficiently.
The Oct 8 catastrophe should become a catalyst for breaking away from past corrupt
practices and charting new directions. It is extremely important that the uses of funds are
absolutely transparent, judicious and easily accessible to anyone interested.
While the establishment of the Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority
in Islamabad is an important step, its operations should be reflective of the basis of
disaster management. Also, there should be two major authorities under the federal
authority one for Azad Kashmir and the other for the affected districts in the NWFP
to plan and implement rehabilitation and reconstruction projects with the full
participation of the stakeholders in their respective regions.
Following rescue operations, priority should be given to quasi-permanent dwellings and
facilities for education, health, water supply, electricity, telecommunications, opening up
of roads, public buildings, office buildings, market places etc. At the same time, building
codes have to be revised and the implementation mechanism put in place for building
permanent structures capable of withstanding seismic shocks up to 9.0 on the Richter
scale.
The catastrophe has clearly shown that we must have a national building code (NBC). In
1970, the ministry of works had prepared a draft NBC. But it has never been discussed
and approved, and is probably buried in the National Assembly archives. Had it been
implemented the magnitude of the Oct 8 tragedy would have been considerably less.
It is reported that about 100 mid- to high-rise buildings are under various stages of
construction in Islamabad alone. Following the devastating earthquake, Islamabads risk
category has been tentatively raised from zone 1 to zone 4.
How many more deaths and destruction do we need to finally complete and enforce the
NBC? Persons responsible for delaying the preparation and approval of the NBC should
be taken to task.
There is a general consensus that in the high-rise building sector, precisely-measured and
pre-engineered steel frames should be used to construct high-rise buildings because these
are light in weight and easily adaptable to earthquake resistant standards. Also, no
building should be allowed to dot the city landscape unless detailed engineering drawings
showing the precise location of all the proposed electrical, plumbing, gas pipelines as
well as an adequate number of emergency exits are provided. A large number of multistoried complexes are under construction all over Pakistan without conforming to the
above requirements. In countries like the US and Japan, seismic activity on the scale of
even 7.0 are not considered devastating as the building codes are up to date and
effectively enforced.

Here, the zoning maps prepared by the meteorological department had placed Islamabad
and Karachi in a category called minor zone reflective of approximately 4.8 Richter
scale risk while the uniform building code (UBC-97) of the US places Islamabad and
Karachi in zone four that requires buildings to be built to resist Richter scale shocks
equivalent to 7.6-plus. The Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) that is supposed to
update geological mapping, geo-hydrological situations, geotechnical and ontological
investigations and undertake proper zoning has only rudimentary equipment to monitor
earthquakes.
The GSP had previously prepared a seismic risk map of Northern Pakistan (1988),
tectonics map (1982) and a seismo-tectonic map (1979), all of which are outdated now. It
is extremely important that an independent GSP is created and equipped with modern
technological apparatus and expert knowhow so that it performs its functions efficiently.
As recommended by an Islamabad citizens committee, a properly trained and fully
qualified workforce of masons, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc, is essential to build
good quality houses according to the building code. It is a huge challenge to train this
workforce all over the country. However, it can be done with the help of the private sector
in Pakistan and relevant institutions abroad. Their training and licensing mechanisms are
to be given high priority.
In addition to the qualified workforce, rules governing the registration of consulting
architects engineering firms should be rewritten to ensure that the registered firms have
the requisite personnel of adequate qualification, experience, etc., for the preparation of
drawings and detailed engineering plans.
Turning to the crucial task of preparing a disaster management strategy, this is a big
challenge and an uphill task because almost all the building control authorities in
Pakistans major cities have either been dormant or unmindful of irregularities and
rampant violations of even the existing and less stringent building codes as well as of
faulty components, including electricity, gas, and water pipelines. Despite these pathetic
conditions, each major city and district has to have a focal point and a disaster
management plan.
The first step in that direction will be a professionally conducted safety survey of existing
buildings and structures and identification of hazardous points such as storage of gas
cylinders, chemicals, fuel oil etc. At the same time, we must reactivate the near defunct
civil defence department, train rescue workers and launch education and awareness
campaigns. To accomplish these tasks in a satisfactory manner we can seek help from
countries like Japan where disaster management plans are prepared by professionally
competent experts and institutions.
Finally, we should accept Dr Arun Bapats proposal that India and Pakistan should launch
earthquake awareness programmes and designate Oct 8 as the National Disaster
Mitigation Day. Such a day is being regularly observed in Japan.
The writer is a former senior advisor to the World Bank.