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Course outline
Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions
Expected Value and Variance
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
0,35
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
2
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Random Variable
A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome
of an experiment.
The particular numerical value of the random variable
depends on the outcome of the experiment.
A random variable can be classified as being either discrete
or continuous depending on the numerical values it
assumes.
A discrete random variable may assume either a finite
number of values or an infinite sequence of values, such as
0,1,2,3
A continuous random variable may assume any numerical
value in an interval or collection of intervals, for example
0<X<20
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Possible Values
for the Random
Variable
Contact five
customers
Number of customers
who place an order
0,1,2,3,4,5
Inspect
shipment of
50 pumps
Number of defective
pumps
1,2,3,,49,50
Operate a toll
road in a day
1,2,3,..
Ferry services
in a day
Number of passengers
1,2,3,..
using the ferry services in
a day
Example
Probability distribution for the number of
automobiles sold during a day at DicarloMotors
Example
Graphical Representation of the Probability
Distribution
Note that ALL values of the random variable are equally likely.
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Example
Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable
Calculation of the expected value for the number of
automobiles sold during a day at Dicarlo Motors
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Example
Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete
Random Variable
Calculation of the variance for the number of automobiles
sold during a day at DicarloMotors
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Example
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Var(x) = 2 = np(1 - p)
Standard Deviation
SD( x) = = np (1 p )
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Example
Sebuah pabrik menemukan bahwa secara ratarata 20% dari baut yang diproduksi oleh sebuah
mesin akan mengalami penyimpangan dari
persyaratan yang dispesifikasikan (cacat). Jika 10
baut dipilih secara acak dari produksi harian
mesin ini, maka hitunglah probabilitas:
Tepat dua baut akan cacat
Minimal dua baut akan cacat
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Example
Using the Poisson Probability Function
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is
three per week. Find the probability of exactly one machine
breakdown during a week.
=
=3
!
3
31 3
1!
= 0,1493
Example
Using the Table of Poisson Probabilities
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is three
per week. Find the probability of exactly one machine breakdown
during a week.
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Example
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Example
Using the Poisson Probability Function
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is
three per week. Find the probability of exactly 10 machines
breakdown during five weeks.
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=
=
= 0.0486
!
10!
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Example
Karena kurangnya pengawasan saat penggelaran pipa,
diketahui bahwa kejadian kebocoran pipeline diketahui
mengikuti distribusi Poisson dengan rata-rata adalah 0,7
kebocoran setiap 10 km pipa. Dari informasi tersebut
hitunglah:
Peluang dalam 20 km pipa terjadi kurang dari 2 kebocoran.
Peluang dalam 20 km pipa terjadi lebih dari 2 kebocoran.
Peluang dalam 50 km pipa tidak terjadi kebocoran pipa sama
sekali.
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Variance
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References
Anderson, Sweeney, Williams., Statistics for
Business and Economics, 11th Edition., West
Publishing Company, 2011.
Statistics for Business and Economics., Slides
Prepared by John S. Loucks St. Edwards
University,South-Western/Thompson Learning
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